In one way, Devan Dubnyk represents a major victory for the scouting department: after 20 years of wasting goalie draft picks, they finally scored in the first round of the 2004 entry draft. In another way, they’re not quite certain how large a victory this represents, and Dubnyk is now 139 games into his NHL career. How long will it take to turn the corner? WILL he turn the corner?
RE 13-14: 52, 130 2.50 .9206
- I’m not certain if these numbers are good or bad. This represents a good season, I think Dubnyk will be near the top 15 in EV save percentage, I’ve punished the Oilers a little on the PK based on uncertain personnel. I have no idea if it’ll work out that way, but am guessing there’s a period of defensive transition. I have him basically running in place in terms of overall SP, but that’s a pretty good place.
- How many shots per game against? I have the Oilers at 31.5 shots against per 60 minutes this season, slight improvement from Dubnyk’s experience a year ago. That’s still high, but the Oilers are turning over team and coach–again–and I doubt they get it completely clamped down before March.
- Is this a playoff team? You’ll have to wait and see.
- Is this enough to get Dubnyk another contract? Yeah, probably similar numbers to the last deal. I maintain Dubnyk has a job as #1 until he loses a playoff game.
- Have you mentioned that to MacTavish? Yeah well, the GM does appear anxious to improve the position.
- Why is MacTavish down on Dubnyk? I think he looked at this team, with all of the stunning talent on the wings, and decided (rightly) to build up the middle. He probably asked himself if any of G, D and C were championship calibre today, and the answer was a resounding “no”, leading to the Schneider rumors.
- But why was MacT so public? Well, he was very open on pretty much everything, so I don’t think it should be considered anything other than state of the union. Dubnyk is part of the team that’s been losing all these seasons, if he can hang around for a post-season run and play well, I think he’ll be here for a long time.
- They hired a solid backup. Yes, and the best part is he’s known to Dubnyk. They’ve spent some time together before and it could be a great tandem.
- Any chance LaBarbera wins the starting job? Jonathan Willis wrote a nice piece on that subject, it’s something to watch as the season rolls along. I don’t think the coach will hesitate to switch out the goalie.
- I still have a hard time marrying MacT’s words to Dubnyk hanging around a long time. MacT: “the verdict is out on Devan. I’ve always believed that when you’re assessing goaltenders, if you have to ask the question you know the answer. The question would be, has Devan established himself as a number one goalie in the National Hockey League? And I still think it’s a valid question. So, I think that Devan, although he’s trending upwards in his numbers and played adequately for us this year, I still think, and I know Devan feels the same way, that there’s another level for him. From our standpoint, we’ll see that he can get to that level.
That’s pretty damning. My feeling is that he could play exactly as well this coming season as last, and if the Oilers make the playoffs he’ll be viewed as someone who has turned the corner. For me, he’s already turned it. Dubnyk’s been trending in a good way for a couple of years. I’m not saying he’s Hasek, but Dubnyk is miles from being the problem.
So, you disagree with MacT? Yes.
- Well there’s a first. Remember, he also said a few things later in that press conference about DD. MacT: “I think Devan took a step this year. His numbers were good, on the year. I think he’s got further to go. To be a top level goaltender he’s got to play better. Not to say that goaltending was any reason we were in the situation we were in; he took a lot of good looks night in and night out, breakaways, shots from the slot. But he’s a guy who is still developing, still growing as a goaltender, so I have lots of faith in his ability to get there, but you’ve got to make the development happen. I think Devan going into the summer has really got a proper focus, he’s going to be around Edmonton, he’s going to put in a good summer of training and I think it’s going to have a huge benefit in his ability to perform next year.”
So, they want that next step? Yes, I think so. MacT can’t come in here and give out these jobs forever to men who have been on an underperforming team. Dubnyk has been on failed clubs really forever, maybe he’s been ‘too long at the fair’ being beaten down ala Horcoff and Hemsky. I’m not buying that, but some may feel it’s a consideration.
Where did he rank among NHL goalies last season? Tied for 10th overall SP with a .920, he was one of three goalies for non-playoff teams to make the top 10.
- What about his EV SP? Less impressive last season, he had a .922SP at evens and that made him the 25th best goalie by that metric (10+ starts).
- So, kind of porridge? I like him better than that, suspect the Oilers do too. I do beleive though that he needs to have a really strong season in order to stay. Edmonton will be very aggressive this calendar year in the goalie department–college, Europe, free agent NHLers, draft, trade–you name it, things are going to get interesting at the goalie position.
- Will they deal him this year? One would think there was another shoe to drop had the Oilers acquired Schneider, so we can assume there’s been a conversation. Dubnyk has value, I don’t really know what the return would be but there’s a player of note here and the Oilers would do well to make their decision on him and either sign him or deal him based on the result.
- Why this song? It’s one of my favorite Bowie songs, it’s a great tune to sing along and it’s fun, but the lyrics are dark and foreboding. That’s Dubnyk: this is his year to carry the news, good or bad.
- Does he make it? That’s why they play the games. I’ve always liked him a lot, so will be cheering madly.
Devan Dubnyk 2010-11
- Boxcars: 35gp, 2.71
- SP: .916
- WLT: 12-13-8
- SP behind starter: Dubnyk was 26 points clear of the veteran
Devan Dubnyk 2011-12
- Boxcars: 42gp, 2.67
- SP: .914
- WLT: 20-20-3
- SP behind starter: Dubnyk was the starter, 4 clear of NK
Devan Dubnyk 2012-13
- Boxcars: 38gp, 2.57
- SP: .920
- WLT: 14-16-6
- SP behind starter: Dubnyk was the starter, 3 behind NK
ALL TIME GAMES PLAYED BY OILER GOALIES (DRAFT)
- Grant Fuhr 868
- Andy Moog 713
- Devan Dubnyk 139
- Jussi Markkanen 128
- Jeff Deslauriers 62