RE 13-14 JORDAN EBERLE: SOUND AND VISION

Jordan Eberle continues to make the 2008 draft a high water mark in Oilers history–all by his lonesome. I’m not sure he’ll score 400 goals or  win a Stanley in Edmonton, but he’s tracking as a wildly successful draft pick and a major part of the Boys on the Bus 2.0

RE 13-14: 78, 28-37-65

  1. Dammit! Why doesn’t he get the love you give Hall and Nuge? This is a helluva season, and the trio RE’s at 86 goals for 2013-14. That’s spectacular, and Eberle is a big part of it. He’s played three NHL seasons now, I think we have him surrounded as a player. I don’t remember the last Oiler line to score 86 goals, but it was a helluva long time ago.
  2. You rat fink. Why doesn’t Eberle get the point per game push like the other two? Part of the reason is the three RW’s and their playing time shuffle, and part of it is this is about where Eberle’s career (per 82gp) numbers sit. We’re trying to be reasonable. I do pull back on his time with Hall slightly (in favor of Yakupov, something that is likely to erode his time with 4 as seasons roll) and that impacts too.
  3. Did you give Eberle any push at all? A little, just a little. I do think the Oilers PP is going to rock and roll this winter so everyone on the 1PP gets a little push.
  4. Is Eberle the best RW on the team? Probably still Hemsky if he’s healthy. Yakupov is hard to peg, he will pass the other two like a house on the side of the road eventually, but when that happens is out in the ether.
  5. You’re just dying to say ‘but he’s no Hall’ aren’t you? Hall’s a #1 overall, as are Nuge and Yak. Jordan Eberle was chosen 22nd overall in 2008 and hasn’t done one damn thing to disappoint since then. It’s a ridiculous thing to say he’s no Hall. Ridiculous.
  6. Why are people sensitive about Eberle? Not a freaking clue. Look, here’s the 411 on Eberle: he was projected to go late first round and Stu MacGregor grabbed him a little high (Bob McKenzie had him #29), and from that day forward Eberle has been a delight. The Oilers got a lottery pick at almost the exact spot they had previously gifted us with Marc Pouliot and Rob Schremp. He’s a wonderful hockey player, absolutely wonderful. Comparing him to the #1′s is wildly unfair, and it’s testimate to his impressive debut in the NHL that people even feel compelled to do it. If a Flames fan was doing this, we’d giggle for hours. I would suggest we enjoy this young man’s talents and stop worrying about where he’s slotted in the pecking order. That will take care of itself. I’ll say this much: at this point, Jordan Eberle has outpaced his draft number by so much he is absolutely one of the team’s best bargains all-time.
  7. What makes him so good?  Quick hands, great release, accurate shot, controlled and aware in the offensive zone. He has eyes in the back of his head, his passes have correct pace, his shot still surprises goaltenders three years in. I want to take a moment to talk about his passing–it’s easy to lose sight of it on a team with so many sublime passers–but Eberle is insanely good at letting the puck do the work. It’s an extremely underrated skill, he has it.
  8. What can’t he do? Play center, push the river like Hall, intimidate physically and cover the contract.
  9. Is there anything you learned about him this season? I think so, yes. Twice during the season, Eberle experienced slumps, significant slumps. During those times, I ‘saw him good’ in that he both kept working hard and said the right things. Eberle’s a confident guy, he believes in himself and his reaction to the slump was (I thought) measured and reasonable. That’s a very good sign in my opinion, pretty stable personality.
  10. Is that good? Hell yes! Give me 23 guys with big brains who are cool, calm and collected–and can play like Eberle–and I’ll be a happy fan. I doubt very much we’re going to see a lot of ‘drama moments’ from Jordan Eberle during his career.
  11. Would he be a good captain? Excellent captain, I’d be thrilled if he got it.
  12. You favor Hall for the job, though. Sure, but I’m a fan, I have no idea about the team itself and how these guys interact with each other. None. If Eberle gets the “C” I’ll be happy as can be, and it certainly could happen. He’s a gem.
  13. What could go wrong? The contract, of course. It’s already out there like the freaking Hindenburg.
  14. Will people turn on him? I’m not certain how it would go if Eberle fell off and scored 38 points per season. I suspect Eberle would still be a guy we all cheer for, but money changes everything.
  15. Thank you, Cyndi Lauper. It’s true, though. Money does change things. Horcoff being the latest, obvious example.
  16. Why this song? It’s among my favorite Bowie songs. The riff is irresistible, the music is lush, the lyrics are hopeful, the vocals kind of disconnected (at least at times). I like it for Eberle because of the title (he definitely has vision) and because he’s an original (we don’t get many 22nd overall picks who kicks the living Bejesus out of the rest of their draft year) and because there’s a sense of wonder–both for us and for him. I think Jordan Eberle is having the time of his life, and he’s perfectly suited to the role because he’s so damn normal. I very much doubt this young man will take that new contract and what it brings for granted.
  17. He’s a helluva hockey player. Damn straight.

EBERLE’S VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER 2012-13

hemsky vollman

JORDAN EBERLE 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.82 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.94 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 8th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 8.7 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 49.3% (8th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 51.6% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 158/11.4% (5th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 68gp, 18-25-43 (led the team in points as a rookie)
  • Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -52.

JORDAN EBERLE 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 3.08 (1st among regular F’s, 2nd in NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.77 (4th among regular F’s)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.7 (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 60.7 % (2nd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 54.5% (best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/18.9% (1st among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 78, 34-42-76 (led the team in points for 2nd year in a row)
  • Plus Minus: +4 on a team that was -26.

JORDAN EBERLE 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.31 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.46 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (top line opp)
  • Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 21.9 (best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 51.1% (5th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 50.0% (8th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 133/12.03% (3rd among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 16-21-37
  • Plus Minus: -4 on a team that was -15.

Eberle’s a terrific hockey player, who could score his 100th career goal this coming season. Can you name the last Edmonton Oiler draft pick to score 100 or more goals in the NHL during his first four seasons?

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111 Responses to "RE 13-14 JORDAN EBERLE: SOUND AND VISION"

  1. bookje says:

    Why do you hate Eberle so much?

    Ok, now that I have asked that, I’m going to read the article and see what you say.

  2. godot10 says:

    Eberle’s contract is going to look like a relative bargain soon. Look at what Perry, Semin, and Wheeler got. Look at what Kessel is going to get. 1st line forwards are going to be getting $7 million plus.

    The Oilers have Hall and Eberle tied up for seven and six years at $6 million.

    65 points and 25 goals is a lot of points and goals in today’s NHL. PPG forwards can probably be counted on one’s fingers, with perhaps a couple of toes included going foward.

    65 points is probably upper quartile in 1st line forwards, certainly upper half.

  3. russ99 says:

    I think you sold Ebb a bit short on goals.

    Shooting percentage can go up as well as down and his middle ground is surely north of 12.03%

  4. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Eberle’s contract is going to look like a relative bargain soon.Look at what Perry, Semin, and Wheeler got.Look at what Kessel is going to get.1st line forwards are going to be getting $7 million plus.

    The Oilers have Hall and Eberle tied up for seven and six years at $6 million.

    65 points and 25 goals is a lot of points and goals in today’s NHL.PPG forwards can probably be counted on one’s fingers, with perhaps a couple of toes included going foward.

    65 points is probably upper quartile in 1st line forwards, certainly upper half.

    The concern is if he settles in behind Yakupov on the 2line and scores 40 points a season.

  5. gcw_rocks says:

    The only way Hemsky is better than Eberle right now is if you are in a machine that took you back to 2006. Eberle’s underlying stats lapped Hemsky his offensive and his offensive production
    so been consistently better the last two or three years.

    65 points seems reasonable but playing with a healthy RNH could easily push him past it. If he consistently scores 65 points per year he will barely cover the contract. But he will cover it.

  6. Lowetide says:

    gcw_rocks:
    The only way Hemsky is better than Eberle right now is if you are in amachine that took you back to 2006.Eberle’s underlying stats lapped Hemskyhis offensiveand his offensive production
    so been consistently better the last two or three years.

    65 points seems reasonable but playing with a healthy RNH could easily push him past it.If he consistently scores 65 points per year he will barely cover the contract.But he will cover it.

    Eberle plays with Hall and Nuge, that makes a difference. If Yakupov ends up playing with Nuge-Hall, Eberle’s point totals could take a downward swing.

    As for Hemsky, given similar linemates to Eberle’s I’m comfortable in suggesting the point totals would be much better than his current number, but also feel health is the big issue.

  7. Woodguy says:

    gcw_rocks:
    The only way Hemsky is better than Eberle right now is if you are in amachine that took you back to 2006.Eberle’s underlying stats lapped Hemskyhis offensiveand his offensive production
    so been consistently better the last two or three years.

    65 points seems reasonable but playing with a healthy RNH could easily push him past it.If he consistently scores 65 points per year he will barely cover the contract.But he will cover it.

    Eberle’s Shot differential 5v5 with and without Hall in the last two years:

    11/12
    With Hall 51.6%
    Without Hall 45.6%

    12/13
    With Hall 54.2%
    WIthout Hall 43.5%

    Hall drives Eberle’s underlying numbers 5v5.

    That’s not to say Eberle isn’t good, but if you are going to mention that he’s passed Hemsky in terms of underlying numbers, you need context.

  8. nelson88 says:

    I think he will score 30 but LT’s RE is indeed reasonable.

    Agree with Godot that the Eberle contract issue is way overblown. He has skills, brains, a seemingly good work ethic and locked up through the prime of his career. I will be thrilled if they can get RNH on a similar contract.

  9. Woodguy says:

    gcw_rocks:
    The only way Hemsky is better than Eberle right now is if you are in amachine that took you back to 2006.Eberle’s underlying stats lapped Hemskyhis offensiveand his offensive production
    so been consistently better the last two or three years.

    65 points seems reasonable but playing with a healthy RNH could easily push him past it.If he consistently scores 65 points per year he will barely cover the contract.But he will cover it.

    Also interesting to note the Oiler’s 5v5 production rates last year:

    12/13 5v4 Pts/60 for every forward over 1m/60

    SAMGAGNER 6.15
    ALESHEMSKY 5.87
    TAYLORHALL 5.74
    RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS 4.91
    NAILYAKUPOV 4.2
    TEEMUHARTIKAINEN 3.91
    JORDANEBERLE 3.46
    SHAWNHORCOFF 3.13
    MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON 2.05
    RYANSMYTH 1.07

  10. LMHF#1 says:

    Given a healthy season, I’m guessing he’d be disappointed with anything less than 35 goals. A shooter with a malfunctioning wrist/hand simply cannot be effective. That reality of his numbers last year must be factored in.

  11. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    Given a healthy season, I’m guessing he’d be disappointed with anything less than 35 goals. A shooter with a malfunctioning wrist/hand simply cannot be effective. That reality of his numbers last year must be factored in.

    I looked at that, but iirc he actually performed reasonably well during that period. It was the other slump that I found most interesting.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Helluva season indeed.

    I’d be ecstatic with these numbers from Eberle. Anywhere near 30 goals is a big deal.

    As far as covering the contract, playing with Hall and the Yakupov situation… I think it might depend as much on “scoring distribution across lines” and “chemistry of teammates” as the old song about “best players on the best lines.” I could easily see Yakupov surpassing Eberle in the next 2 years and still finding himself on a very potent 2nd line.

    I think your point about Hemsky is well taken. It runs up against the practical concern (not health) of where a coach is going to slot him and where he fits long term. Or, while I agree he (when healthy) is still currently the best RW, the point is basically moot as he won’t be playing on the first line unless something really weird happens.

    “Sound and Vision”… great, great tune. Almost a down-tempo disco track. quiet funky.

  13. jp says:

    A small step up from last years pro-rated 78-26-34-60. I like it.

  14. Cobbler says:

    Perron-Gagner-Eberle is a hell of a 2nd line.

    I have to think even if Yak passes Eberle for the 1 line role that Eberle still has a magnificent year. There are just so many possibilities with the top 2 lines now. Throw Hemsky in and options are virtually unlimited.

    Yak’s RE will be interesting given he seems to be slotted to play with Perron-Gagner.

    For me the contract risk, as with most players resides in the injury dept. If Eberle continues with the same production he has averaged over three years then the contract is covered.

  15. theres oil in virginia says:

    The real question is: “Why do you hate Wanye so much!” Seriously, you tryin’ to give the guy an aneurism?

    On Hemsky vs Eberle: You’d put Hemsky on the ice rather than Eberle with a minute to go and down a goal!? Not I.

    On Eberle pushing the river: When Hall went out of the lineup in Eberle’s rookie year, I thought Eberle would wilt. There was nobody left. (That was the low point in my estimation – the spring Lowe tide, as it were.) He did not wilt. During those games, there was no other reason to watch the Oilers IIRC. Eberle’s got the skills, but what impresses me most about him is how he can get a goal when nobody else can. Sometimes it’s when they’re down 5-0 with a few minutes left (and nobody wants to get shutout). Along comes Eberle and just like that, 5-1. Gagner has a bit of that in him too. Eberle can’t carry a line like Hall, but that’s like saying Mt McKinley isn’t as tall as Everest. It’s still pretty damn tall.

    On your RE: I think these are perfectly adequate REs. Eberle is a potential perennial 30 goal scorer, and you’ve got him just shy of 30 for the RE! Stamkos don’t score 50 every year either, but you know he’s sniffing around there every year. Strange thing here is that all of your words above seem written as if they’re a setup for a much lower RE. In other words, I disagree with most of the tone of what you’ve written and yet agree perfectly with your RE. Maybe you’re brainwashing us at this site, but the effect takes time – first we start agreeing with the RE, then with the writeup, then it’s “yyess master Lowetide”. ;)

  16. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: The concern is if he settles in behind Yakupov on the 2line and scores 40 points a season.

    So are people concerned that Malkin is going to get 50 points a season playing 2nd line centre behind Crosby?

    Jarri Kurri’s point totals sure hurt Glenn Anderson’s.

    Since when was 2 good RW’s too many.

  17. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Given a healthy season, I’m guessing he’d be disappointed with anything less than 35 goals. A shooter with a malfunctioning wrist/hand simply cannot be effective. That reality of his numbers last year must be factored in.

    His goal scoring rate actually went up after he had the injury.

    Strange, but true.

  18. Lowetide says:

    godot10: So are people concerned that Malkin is going to get 50 points a season playing 2nd line centre behind Crosby?

    Jarri Kurri’s point totals sure hurt Glenn Anderson’s.

    Since when was 2 good RW’s too many.

    I think comparing Eberle-Yakupov with Crosby-Malkin might be outside reasonable. I’d love to have two scoring lines like 99-Kurri and Messier-Anderson but we’re not there yet and despite all this talent the Oilers 2line wasn’t a killer last season.

  19. Woodguy says:

    russ99:
    I think you sold Ebb a bit short on goals.

    Shooting percentage can go up as well as down and his middle ground is surely north of 12.03%

    Here’s Eberle’s SH% in his first 3 NHL seasons:

    2010-2011 11.4
    2011-2012 18.9
    2012-2013 12.0

    Saying that his normal is above 12% is far from a slam dunk.

    Probable, but not certain.

  20. Cobbler says:

    Also….the Horcoff contract was a different beast.

    He was signed after a tremendous 2005-2006 season where he scored at a clip of 0.92 ppg in the rgular season and then that amazing cup run where he went 0.79 ppg. Including that year, he averaged 0.53 ppg during the regular season and 0.66 ppg in the playoffs since starting in the NHL in 2000-2001 at age 22.

    The contract at the time rewarded his one stellar year, but historically he had not yet earned it.

    Since then Horcoff went 0.63 ppg. Despite being a hell of an Oiler, a great guy and a hard worker, as we know Horcoff never lived up to the contract. The evidence was there though that it was an overpay from the get go.

    With Eberle at 0.80 ppg in his career to date, It hink he has just earned that contract. He may just cover it or fall a bit short, but I can’t see it ending up like Horcoff at all.

  21. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy,
    I think it’s a bit one-sided to show Eberle’s drop-off without Hall, without any other context. When Eberle’s not playing with Hall, who’s he playing with? Horcoff? Gagner? Who’s numbers wouldn’t drop off with any other Oiler replacing Hall on the line with them? What do Hemsky’s numbers do when you downgrade his most common linemate?

    Regarding the 5×5 scoring from 12-13, are these given to suggest that Eberle is not as good a scorer as Teemu? That Sam Gagner is the most prolific scorer 5×5? Are Eberle’s numbers out of line with 11-12 and/or 10-11?

    By eye, comparing Eberle and Hemsky in the defensive zone last year, neither was strong, but Hemsky was often a train wreck. Give Hemsky the puck in space, and no Oiler is better. But, Eberle is more likely to advance the puck when you need it.

  22. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: I looked at that, but iirc he actually performed reasonably well during that period. It was the other slump that I found most interesting.

    To both you and WG:

    I’m of the understanding that he was fighting the injury essentially the whole 48. Is there other info available here?

    The Oilers injury picture is always so unnecessarily muddy…

  23. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1: To both you and WG:

    I’m of the understanding that he was fighting the injury essentially the whole 48. Is there other info available here?

    The Oilers injury picture is always so unnecessarily muddy…

    Agreed. I can’t shed any more light on it than what we have. Bruce?

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Cobbler,

    Maybe in the regular season but St.Louis and LAK would be licking their chops to face that line in the playoffs.

  25. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: 12/13
    With Hall 54.2%
    WIthout Hall 43.5% [note: actually 44.5%]
    Hall drives Eberle’s underlying numbers 5v5.

    Hall without Eberle: 42.5%. Couldn’t you make the same argument that Eberle drives Hall’s underlying numbers 5v5?

    My take is that all three of these kids drive each others’ numbers. They are better together than apart. Hall was north of 54% with Eberle or Nuge, and south of 48% with every other forward with whom he played significant minutes.

    Woodguy: His goal scoring rate actually went up after he had the injury.
    Strange, but true.

    He got hurt in Game 21 n Minnesota, and proceeded to score 1 goal in the next 10 games. After that — once he healed — his goal scoring rate did indeed improve. But the effect of the injury was noticeable by eye and by stat for about 3 weeks there.

  26. theres oil in virginia says:

    Hemsky’s boxcars for his 20-year-old through 22-year-old seasons:
    YEAR GP G AS PTS
    02-03 59 06 24 30
    03-04 71 12 22 34
    04-05 81 19 58 77

    Eberle’s boxcars for his 20-year-old through 22-year-old seasons:
    YEAR GP G AS PTS
    10-11 69 18 25 43
    11-12 78 34 42 76
    12-13 48 16 21 37
    12-13 82 27 36 63 (projected 82 game season – fucking lockout!)

    Hemsky’s career high in goals is 23. Hemsky is a sublime player, but not even close to Eberle (so far), except in “dipsy doodle”, which he is very good at, but often has trouble finishing.

  27. Bruce McCurdy says:

    What can’t he do? Play center, push the river like Hall, intimidate physically and cover the contract.

    Hmm. Last year, under the old contract, Eberle came 40th in NHL scoring.

    This year coming up, with the new contract, CapGeek lists him as the 38th highest paid forward in the league.

    Yes I know there are complicating issues re: RFA vs UFA years and so forth, and yes I know players (even forwards) get paid for other things than just scoring points, but entering his $6 MM years Eberle has two offensive seasons in the neighbourhood of what that pay rate commands. I’m not exactly convinced he’s done improving just yet, either.

  28. Bruce McCurdy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Hemsky’s boxcars for his 20-year-old through 22-year-old seasons:
    YEAR GP G AS PTS
    02-03 59 06 24 30
    03-04 71 12 22 34
    04-05 81 19 58 77

    Hemsky actually didn’t have a 22-year-old season, and that mythical “04-05″ you cite was actually a year later. (fucking lockout!)

  29. theres oil in virginia says:

    Bruce McCurdy,
    Thanks Bruce! Aah, ya gotta love the NHL. So both players got fucked over by Ed Snider in their 22 YO seasons! Weird coincidence. (Yes, I’m blaming Ed Snider for everything that’s wrong with the NHL.)

  30. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Bruce McCurdy,
    Thanks Bruce!Aah, ya gotta love the NHL.So both players got fucked over by Ed Snider in their 22 YO seasons!Weird coincidence.(Yes, I’m blaming Ed Snider for everything that’s wrong with the NHL.)

    That’s not a bad plan, to be honest.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Here’s Eberle’s SH% in his first 3 NHL seasons:

    2010-201111.4
    2011-201218.9
    2012-201312.0

    Saying that his normal is above 12% is far from a slam dunk.

    Probable, but not certain.

    I would go so far as to say if his career normal is c. 12% that’s fantastic.

  32. regwald says:

    To answer the trivia question: Arnott

    Also, I think Ebs out performs your RE, which is a good thing.

  33. Lowetide says:

    regwald:
    To answer the trivia question: Arnott

    Also, I think Ebs out performs your RE, which is a good thing.

    No, not Arnott. He scored 33, 15, 28 and 19 goals in his first 4 seasons (95 goals).

  34. Ray says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide: The concern is if he settles in behind Yakupov on the 2line and scores 40 points a season.

    He’s still the best right handed shot from inside the slot on the team. that will get him pp opportunities every year. I for one don’t see he points dropping because of Yakupov passing him on the depth chart

  35. Cobbler says:

    leadfarmer,

    Hey, I’ll take the regular season for now.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: No, not Arnott. He scored 33, 15, 28 and 19 goals in his first 4 seasons (95 goals).

    Craig Simpson?

    EDIT: not him. missed the caveat… he is though, to piggy back another conversation, the career sh% leader.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Craig Simpson?

    not Craig Simpson. Last Oiler draft pick to score 100 NHL goales in his first four seasons.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: not Craig Simpson. Last Oiler draft pick to score 100 NHL goales in his first four seasons.

    missed the qualifier.

    Kurri?

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ahhh… crap. Esa T.

    (depending on when you peg his rookie season, if 85-6 (is 35 games enough for a rookie season?) he only gets to 95, like Arnott. if 86-87, he gets to 118)

  40. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: missed the qualifier.

    Kurri?

    Not Kurri.

  41. theres oil in virginia says:

    After Hall went down in 10-11, Eberle’s boxcars:
    GM G AS PTS
    17 03 05 08

    3 goals and 8 points in 17 games! That sucks. (Yeah, Alex Giroux would take that in a heartbeat!) Oh, but look at the lineup for a representative (I think) roster for a game during that stretch:

    (WARNING!: The page you are about to visit may be traumatic and is not suitable for children or those suffering from heart-related illness. Viewer discretion is advised.)

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/boxscore.htm?id=2010021077

    Boy, I can’t understand why Eberle’s numbers are awful without Hall. IMO, getting off the bench and going over the boards during that stretch should win Eberle the Medal of Honor, and maybe the Purple Heart too. (Don’t know if you guys have the same military awards, but that’s bravery and wounded in the line of duty.)

    Isn’t there a stretch somewhere in Oilers purgatory (10-11 through present) where Hall played without Eberle? I can’t recall, but I’m sure there was. Still looking…

  42. jp says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Woodguy,
    What do Hemsky’s numbers do when you downgrade his most common linemate?

    Regarding the 5×5 scoring from 12-13, are these given to suggest that Eberle is not as good a scorer as Teemu?That Sam Gagner is the most prolific scorer 5×5?Are Eberle’s numbers out of line with 11-12 and/or 10-11?

    By eye, comparing Eberle and Hemsky in the defensive zone last year, neither was strong, but Hemsky was often a train wreck.Give Hemsky the puck in space, and no Oiler is better.But, Eberle is more likely to advance the puck when you need it.

    Actually Hemsky’s numbers get much better…

    Those 5X5 numbers appear to be 5X4 numbers. They suggest to me that Eberle will most likely be better on the PP next year.

    By eye, I thought Eberle had more trouble getting the puck out of the defensive zone than Hemsky.

  43. jp says:

    Lowetide: Not Kurri.

    Comrie.

  44. Andropod says:

    Eberle may not produce the best numbers in the league in the regular season but he is the kind of player that wins championships with his sublime plays when the chips are down and the clock is ticking.
    I also see Hall as that kind of player. Yak City showed that kind of quality in his game against LA, but I have also seen him crumble a bit under pressure in other games. How about the Nuge?

  45. Lowetide says:

    jp: Comrie.

    Not Comrie.

  46. Hammers says:

    Eberle has another attribute that we don’t want to forget and that’s the ability to raise his game within the game . If I need a goal to win or tie a game he is the player I want on the ice . I can’t prove it but my thinking is he gets important goals , first goal , tie goal etc and so many other players get there goals when we are up 2 or 3 zip and you hardly see them when you need “the goal” .Wish there was some stat guy that could tell us that . He reminds me of Glen Anderson that way . Important goals for me are worth more .

  47. theres oil in virginia says:

    Taylor Hall, Mt Everest:
    YEAR GP G AS PTS
    10-11 13 04 05 09

    That’s pretty much all of January, 2011.

    Here’s lineup from that stretch:
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/boxscore.htm?id=2010020610

    Bad, yes, but not like what I linked to above. (Was it ever good that year?)

    I’d like to emphasize that Eberle and Hall had these stretches, with these linemates, in their rookie seasons!

  48. striatic says:

    i’d like to hear more about LT’s “Hemsky better than Eberle” hypothesis.

    the idea is something that seems intuitively wrong to me, even accounting for disparities in ice time. some statistical backup would go a long way toward convincing me though.

    also, i think Yakupov is still a couple seasons away from being the best RW on the team. i stand by my bet that he ultimately becomes the best all around player on the Oilers, even better than Hall. i think he has a similar trajectory to Hall, where he goes supernova in year 3.

  49. striatic says:

    Hammers: Eberle has another attribute that we don’t want to forget and that’s the ability to raise his game within the game .

    so what you are saying is, he’s clutch?

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hahaha…

    these caveats have me confused. So drafted by Oilers, but not necessarily scored all 100 with the Oil.

    Satan.

  51. theres oil in virginia says:

    jp:
    By eye, I thought Eberle had more trouble getting the puck out of the defensive zone than Hemsky.

    Last year? Perhaps. Neither was strong in that regard. (Taylor Hall either.) Sometimes my memory ain’t the bestest. (In fairness to Hemsky, Yakupov was not exactly finished with the newborn deer leg wobbles, either.)

  52. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    What can’t he do? Play center, push the river like Hall, intimidate physically and cover the contract.

    Hmm. Last year, under the old contract, Eberle came 40th in NHL scoring.

    This year coming up, with the new contract, CapGeek lists him as the 38th highest paid forward in the league.

    Yes I know there are complicating issues re: RFA vs UFA years and so forth, and yes I know players (even forwards) get paid for other things than just scoring points, but entering his $6 MM years Eberle has two offensive seasons in the neighbourhood of what that pay rate commands. I’m not exactly convinced he’s done improving just yet, either.

    This echoes some of my sentiments on the Hall/Eberle contracts. The $6 million dollar men are going to be tied at the hip through their careers (maybe something like Weight and Guerin), but whereas Hall is already a steal at his new contract, I think Eberle becomes value as he improves and the cap rises. By year four of this deal I wonder if we aren’t begrudgingly grateful to Tambellini for the Eberle contract.

  53. khlhfss says:

    Lowetide,

    Tikkanen?

  54. GATO BANDIDO says:

    Miroslav Satan from the 93 draft, as an Oiler and Sabre

  55. jp says:

    Lowetide: Not Comrie.

    Oops, I included a WHL half season there for Comrie.

    And yes, it is Satan. Sigh.

  56. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    Ha, the poisoned pill in your trivia question is “drafted by the Oilers”. Reviewing their draft record since ’79 was a bit of a kick in the vittles.

    If not for Sather’s trading acumen (and luck) Fraser’s drafting would have driven the franchise into the ditch years earlier.

    As for the question, I haven’t a clue. *edit – I see the answer is Satan, another one that got away.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Hahaha…

    these caveats have me confused. So drafted by Oilers, but not necessarily scored all 100 with the Oil.

    Satan.

    Satan. Correct. Man, we missed a lot of goals from that guy.

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    So, what do you get for getting the trivia question right on your 4th attempt?

  59. Lowetide says:

    striatic:
    i’d like to hear more about LT’s “Hemsky better than Eberle” hypothesis.

    A healthy Hemsky is a veteran player who has miles of experience playing tough minutes and being able to deliver offensively. He has also been the best player on his line for most of his time in Edmonton, meaning he created offense with complementary players.

    I think we’ve quickly forgotten what a healthy Hemsky looks like, but I guess that’s the nature of sports (what have you done for me lately?).

  60. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    So, what do you get for getting the trivia question right on your 4th attempt?

    Looking it up here, uh, um, yes! here it is. You pay me $20. :-)

  61. GATO BANDIDO says:

    The annoying newbie-who-swoops-in-to-ruin-trivia-for-everyone!

    LT (may I call you LT?) I’m really enjoying the Bowie match-ups (“Golden Years” for Smyth?) and your insightful analysis. Saw him in concert (Bowie, not Smyth) at Commonwealth Stadium summer of 83 or 84 with Peter Gabriel. Brilliant.

  62. gcw_rocks says:

    Lowetide,

    Ken Krzywicki of HockeyAnalytics.com studied the career production of forwards. His study showed that a player tends to produce at 24 roughly one and a half times the offense that he produced at 22. (Thanks for Bruce for this).

    So, Eberle should be hitting his peak this year or next. Moving from Hall and RNH to Perron and Gagner is a downgrade in linemates, but that’s still a pretty damn good line. It would not surprise me at all for Eberle to post up 60 points with those two line mates. Hemsky, not so much.

    But I suspect that Eberle won’t be pulled away from both Hall and RNH. If Eakins breaks up the top line, I think he goes with Hall – Gagner – Yakupov and Perron – RNH – Eberle for a 1a and 1b approach to keep the opposition from keying on one line.

  63. Lowetide says:

    GATO BANDIDO:
    The annoying newbie-who-swoops-in-to-ruin-trivia-for-everyone!

    LT (may I call you LT?) I’m really enjoying the Bowie match-ups (“Golden Years” for Smyth?) and your insightful analysis. Saw him in concert (Bowie, not Smyth) at Commonwealth Stadium summer of 83 or 84 with Peter Gabriel. Brilliant.

    Gato: thanks. I’ve already done Smyth
    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/07/re-13-14-ryan-smyth-space-oddity.html

    but did consider Golden Years, Can You Hear Me?, Tonight and Ashes to Ashes for him. That’s the thing about Bowie–he’s done SO many terrific songs we could play 5 per player and not get to all of them.

  64. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Looking it up here, uh, um, yes! here it is. You pay me $20.

    Whew… And here I thought I’d have to wear a funny hat for 6 days.

    Next time I’m in Edmonton (may never happen), I’ll bring you a nice bottle from a Niagara winery.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Whew… And here I thought I’d wear a funny hat for 6 days.

    Next time I’m in Edmonton (may never happen), I’ll bring you a nice bottle from a Niagara winery.

    Rom: I’d love that. As I grow older, wine is spending more and more time (well the actual bottles go quickly) on my drink menu.

  66. gcw_rocks says:

    Lowetide,

    “A healthy Hemsky is a veteran player who has miles of experience playing tough minutes and being able to deliver offensively. He has also been the best player on his line for most of his time in Edmonton, meaning he created offense with complementary players.
    I think we’ve quickly forgotten what a healthy Hemsky looks like, but I guess that’s the nature of sports (what have you done for me lately?).”

    I haven’t forgotten, I just don’t think we are ever going to see that Hemsky again. He’ll be 30 at the start of the season, a time when players injuries frequency starts to increase, not decrease. The collapse of his shot differential last season was also frightening. It’s sad to say, because when he is healthy he is a joy to watch, but after 4 straight injury plagued seasons, its more realistic to assume we see more of that Hemsky then the injury free one.

  67. Lowetide says:

    gcw_rocks:
    Lowetide,

    “A healthy Hemsky is a veteran player who has miles of experience playing tough minutes and being able to deliver offensively. He has also been the best player on his line for most of his time in Edmonton, meaning he created offense with complementary players.
    I think we’ve quickly forgotten what a healthy Hemsky looks like, but I guess that’s the nature of sports (what have you done for me lately?).”

    I haven’t forgotten, I just don’t think we are ever going to see that Hemsky again. He’ll be 30 at the start of the season, a time when players injuries frequency starts to increase, not decrease.The collapse of his shot differential last season was also frightening.It’s sad to say, because when he is healthy he is a joy to watch, but after 4 straight injury plagued seasons, its more realistic to assume we see more of that Hemsky then the injury free one.

    sure, which is why I said “probably a healthy Hemsky” in the original post. I’m certainly not going to argue the Hemsky we’ve seen this past couple of seasons is a guy you expect to outscore Eberle or Yakupov from the 3line.

    I do however think Hemsky will impact playing time for both of them. This isn’t Ryan Smyth at 37 we’re dealing with here.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    gcw_rocks:
    Lowetide,

    “A healthy Hemsky is a veteran player who has miles of experience playing tough minutes and being able to deliver offensively. He has also been the best player on his line for most of his time in Edmonton, meaning he created offense with complementary players.
    I think we’ve quickly forgotten what a healthy Hemsky looks like, but I guess that’s the nature of sports (what have you done for me lately?).”

    I haven’t forgotten, I just don’t think we are ever going to see that Hemsky again. He’ll be 30 at the start of the season, a time when players injuries frequency starts to increase, not decrease.The collapse of his shot differential last season was also frightening.It’s sad to say, because when he is healthy he is a joy to watch, but after 4 straight injury plagued seasons, its more realistic to assume we see more of that Hemsky then the injury free one.

    I mentioned this during LT’s recap too… it probably helps if we add some weight to Hemsky’s lockout play.

    hemsky went:
    27 14 18 32 +5

    on a line with Krejci, who he out scored marginally.

    I don’t want to put too much pressure on these stats (it’s unfortunate that I can’t find shot totals for the Czech League), but they would seem to indicate that Hemsky started off the year in good form (the shoulder wasn’t bothering him) and putting up points in a solid league.

    I think we are right to expect a decline with age and possibly more injuries… but I think we should hold off on planning the wake.

    That is, the decline isn’t precipitous, yet. Barring injury and weird systems failures, I think the only thing holding Hemsky back this coming season is going to be TOI and linemates, not his own performance.

  69. jp says:

    Lowetide: sure, which is why I said “probably a healthy Hemsky” in the original post. I’m certainly not going to argue the Hemsky we’ve seen this past couple of seasons is a guy you expect to outscore Eberle or Yakupov from the 3line.

    I do however think Hemsky will impact playing time for both of them. This isn’t Ryan Smyth at 37 we’re dealing with here.

    Who knows, but I’m optimistic that Hemsky might be relatively healthy going forward. Since returning from the shoulder injury at the beginning of 11-12 he’s been healthy except for the broken foot, which could be passed off as fluke. If the shoulders are really fixed (and they’ve held up for most of 2 yrs now), he should be a 70 GP + player.

    It likely won’t be with the Oilers, but I think we’ll see the “old” Hemsky again at some point. I think another 60/70 point season or two are in the cards.

  70. Lucinius says:

    In terms of pure skill Hemsky is still the best on the Oilers — and there’s a decently sized gap between him and the cluster in second. Raw skill has always been Hemsky’s thing, though. What makes guys like Hall better players than Hemsky isn’t skill — its everything else they bring to the table, especially the ability to think the game at such a high level.

    Hemsky is one of those pure instinctual skill players. They are incredibly hard to match in terms of skill, and I’m not certain Hall, RNH, Eberle or Yakupov will ever actually match the skill Hemsky has/had. However, with everything else they bring to the table they will struggle to not become superior players than Hemsky (and some already are).

    Let me put it this way; in terms of raw skill and ability Hemsky is easily top ten in the entire bloody league. But its all he brings to the table, raw skill. He has a lot of trouble adapting to systems or playing the thinking man’s game. His game is what it is and he struggles to adapt to situations where raw skill alone doesn’t suffice and that he comes what he is; the master of the almost play. All flash, no dash, as it were.

    Makes him an incredible talent and exciting to watch… and one of the most frustrating sports player types to follow because you are always left with ‘what if…’ with the player.

    Of course, things do change; look at Jagr, who was another pure instinctual skill player type. As he’s gotten older he’s managed to change his game a bit, become far friendlier to the systemic play that now dominates the NHL. He’s still a bitch to play with (just ask his team mates from Boston, who joked about it constantly during the playoffs), but he’s no where near as hard to play with as he used to be.

  71. Racki says:

    Lowetide: A healthy Hemsky is a veteran player who has miles of experience playing tough minutes and being able to deliver offensively. He has also been the best player on his line for most of his time in Edmonton, meaning he created offense with complementary players.

    I think we’ve quickly forgotten what a healthy Hemsky looks like, but I guess that’s the nature of sports (what have you done for me lately?).

    For me, Hemsky was once that player, but I’m not sure if he still is. I don’t know if it’s the injuries, or if it’s him just being tired of losing, or him not wanting to be 3rd fiddle here… I have no idea. But to me he isn’t our best winger anymore. If he was, he’d likely be on the top line still. I’m not even sure he’s the 2nd best winger anymore. Hemsky’s a great player when he’s on his game though… but I think he’s no longer the best player every night. Taylor Hall is a great player EVERY night. Ales Hemsky is a great player every once in a while. Jordan Eberle is closer to Hall than he is to Hemsky, imho. It takes a consistent, strong work ethic.

    I don’t want to be too critical of Hemmer, but there are nights where you can clearly read the frustration on his face… as far as I’m concerned, he brings some of the negativity on himself, even if a lot is overly critical. He has a higher battle level than he gets credit for (i.e. his injuries should be a badge of honor), but I think he’s becoming less and less interested in going that extra mile, as of late. I can’t read his thoughts though, so anything I say is completely my opinion here.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Just reading through the Hemsky comments, wanted to make a couple of things clear.

    Is Eberle the best RW on the team? Probably still Hemsky if he’s healthy. Yakupov is hard to peg, he will pass the other two like a house on the side of the road eventually, but when that happens is out in the ether.

    That’s it. I didn’t say anything about Hall, nothing about point totals, absolutely didn’t say anything about attitude. So, if we’re arguing this point–and I’m surprised we are–can we agree this isn’t about total points?

    It’s about veterans, talent, and health. All of which pertain to Hemsky.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    Hemsky LOL. Talk about Lowetide’s fanatical insistence on clinging to his old timey fave crappola-era Oilers.

    Hemsky – Since we’re talking about musicians around this blog…Ales Hemsky’s like a musician that wasn’t quite good enough to make it in the music business, despite possessing most of the requirements for the position. Something like a guitar player with a chronic inability to listen to the other members of the band he plays in…causing the overall sound to sound worse, not better like it’s supposed to do.

    Hemsky – plays the same crazed north/south cut around goal 99% failure rate no matter what the score of whatever game he plays in, can’t remember the last if any time he even scored a winning goal since most of his patented grandstand rushes take place early in the game, if memory serves me correctly.

    Third line winger, 5 million bucks to save next year when he’s gone, period. Expect 2-3 “great” moments off Hemsky this season, like every bloody other season.

  74. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: A healthy Hemsky is a veteran player who has miles of experience playing tough minutes and being able to deliver offensively. He has also been the best player on his line for most of his time in Edmonton, meaning he created offense with complementary players.

    I think we’ve quickly forgotten what a healthy Hemsky looks like, but I guess that’s the nature of sports (what have you done for me lately?).

    My argument in favor of Eberle was not in the spirit of anti-Hemsky. I’ve got no problems with Hemsky. I remember Detroit Game 6, I remember years of “at least we’ve got Hemsky”. I also remember that I kept waiting for him to take the next step and become a 30 goal scorer…still waiting. I’m perfectly happy to have Hemsky stay with the Oilers for the rest of his career, despite the fact that it isn’t likely to happen. However, Jordan Eberle has had the “yeah, but…” line used since he was a prospect. “Yeah, but it’s the AHL…” “Yeah, but when his shooting percentage comes back down…” “Yeah, but Hall drives the bus on that line.” The guy scored a prorated 28 goals during a year in which he was widely considered to be fighting injury and having an off year. I look at those guys and see them all in a class above the rest, including Eberle. I don’t think draft position is relevant at this point in their careers. IMO, these guys, including Eberle, are all better as kids than Hemsky as an established NHL vet.

    Funny thing is, I agree completely with your RE, which BTW are almost always spot on, as history shows.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Oil in Virginia: Seriously? You’re willing to send Yakupov out for the tough minutes? NOW?

  76. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    Just reading through the Hemsky comments, wanted to make a couple of things clear.

    Is Eberle the best RW on the team? Probably still Hemsky if he’s healthy. Yakupov is hard to peg, he will pass the other two like a house on the side of the road eventually, but when that happens is out in the ether.

    That’s it. I didn’t say anything about Hall, nothing about point totals, absolutely didn’t say anything about attitude. So, if we’re arguing this point–and I’m surprised we are–can we agree this isn’t about total points?

    It’s about veterans, talent, and health. All of which pertain to Hemsky.

    I think Woodguy was suggesting that Hall was pushing Eberle along, but perhaps I misread it.

    What else are we going to argue about!? It’s awfully August right now. “Oh October, October, where for art thou October?”
    ;)

  77. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    Oil in Virginia: Seriously? You’re willing to send Yakupov out for the tough minutes? NOW?

    Sorry, not Yak with his “wobbly, newborn-deer legs”. I don’t yet incorporate him together with the others when I think of “the kids”. He’s “the baby”. My mistake.

    But…I don’t trust Hemsky with the tough minutes either.

  78. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: Sorry, not Yak with his “wobbly, newborn-deer legs”.I don’t yet incorporate him together with the others when I think of “the kids”.He’s “the baby”.My mistake.

    But…I don’t trust Hemsky with the tough minutes either.

    Healthy, Ales Hemsky has been reliable against tough opposition going back some ways (last season, his line was wonky and I admit it freely). Healthy, Ales Hemsky is a fine option against tough opponents–IF he has quality players with him (and if they are close to their prime).

  79. Hockeyman 99 says:

    @ LT

    I love Ebs, but should we be using him and Shultz Sr. to try and get Pietrangelo and Steen out of St. Louis? Give Hemsky a 3 year extension at 3.5 per and second line minutes. Move Yak to 1st line. It fixes the salary structure and we have a replacement in house. I don’t know how hall would react, but it needs to be done and your not going to move one of the firsts. That trade puts the Oil in the playoffs

  80. Racki says:

    Lowetide:
    Just reading through the Hemsky comments, wanted to make a couple of things clear.

    Is Eberle the best RW on the team? Probably still Hemsky if he’s healthy. Yakupov is hard to peg, he will pass the other two like a house on the side of the road eventually, but when that happens is out in the ether.

    That’s it. I didn’t say anything about Hall, nothing about point totals, absolutely didn’t say anything about attitude. So, if we’re arguing this point–and I’m surprised we are–can we agree this isn’t about total points?

    It’s about veterans, talent, and health. All of which pertain to Hemsky.

    Not sure if you mentioned the comment about Hall because I just brought him up, but for the record, I was just using his name as a point of reference. I think Eberle has a work ethic like Hall.. not quite as good though (no one plays as consistently hard as he does). When Eberle isn’t scoring, I think he’s still out there wheeling pretty hard. There are times where he can take shifts off though. But all I meant when bringing up Hall was to say that Eberle plays at a similarly consistent high level as Hall does (albeit not quite as high/consistent) whereas to me, Hemsky is more of a very up and down player. One shift, or even entire game, you don’t know he’s there.. the next shift/game he’s dominant.

    However I personally think that when Eberle is at his best, he’s on par with Hemsky’s best. Hemsky might look a little prettier doing it each time, but I think they’re on the same level at their best. If the game was on the line and I needed a goal, I’d have a tough time picking between either though.. but I’d probably go with the magic hands in Eberle (you can’t go wrong with either though.. maybe whomever is more rested :P). I think the Oilers are lucky to have 3 RWers that can control a game at any moment though (less so in Yakupov so far, but he’ll get there).

    Also I’m not sure anyone is “arguing”, just expressing their points.. not all directed your way, although maybe some other people’s comments were. Me, I was just speaking in general as I like to blab on about whatever the heck I feel like at any given moment when given a topic. lol

  81. Lowetide says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    @ LT

    I love Ebs, but should we be using him and Shultz Sr. to try and get Pietrangelo and Steen out of St. Louis? Give Hemsky a 3 year extension at 3.5 per and second line minutes moves Yak to 1st line. It fixes the salary structure and we have a replacement in house. I don’t know how hall would react, but it needs to be done and your not going to move one of the firsts. That trade puts the Oil in the playoffs

    I wouldn’t do it, and I love Pietrangelo. Eberle is part of this group–an important part–and he signed with the team for long term. I don’t think that’s the kind of guy you trade.

  82. jp says:

    hunter1909:
    Hemsky LOL. Talk about Lowetide’s fanatical insistence on clinging to his old timey fave crappola-era Oilers.

    Hemsky – Since we’re talking about musicians around this blog…Ales Hemsky’s like a musician that wasn’t quite good enough to make it in the music business, despite possessing most of the requirements for the position. Something like a guitar player with a chronic inability to listen to the other members of the band he plays in…causing the overall sound to sound worse, not better like it’s supposed to do.

    Hemsky – plays the same crazed north/south cut around goal 99% failure rate no matter what the score of whatever game he plays in, can’t remember the last if any time he even scored a winning goal since most of his patented grandstand rushes take place early in the game, if memory serves me correctly.

    Third line winger, 5 million bucks to save next year when he’s gone, period. Expect 2-3 “great” moments off Hemsky this season, like every bloody other season.

    Yeah, Hemsky and his 597 GP (133-318-451) never could quite make it in the biz. A shame for sure.

    And Hemsky’s last GWG came on Mar. 28th. http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2012020499

    Guess you’re not in agreement that he’s the Oilers best RW when healthy?

  83. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Lowetide,

    Do you want a $6 million dollar second liner.

  84. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: Healthy, Ales Hemsky has been reliable against tough opposition going back some ways (last season, his line was wonky and I admit it freely). Healthy, Ales Hemsky is a fine option against tough opponents–IF he has quality players with him (and if they are close to their prime).

    Now this may be a case of the “what have you done for me lately”. My mind might be colored a bit by last season regarding this, but my sense of Hemsky is you need to give him the cherry minutes to see him at his best. I saw a lot of lackluster D-zone play. JP noted above that he thought that by eye Hemsky was better at moving the puck along (I think he specifically stated “clearing the zone”) than Eberle, but I can’t shake the sense that Hemsky is not that guy. I’m really looking forward to seeing what Eakins can do, because as time rolls along, I keep wondering how much of an impact coaching had last year. At first, I thought maybe it was small, there was regression, but it wasn’t falling off the cliff regression. But, as time goes on, it becomes easier and easier to just lay on the coaching/system. Anyway, I reiterate that my argument was more pro-Eberle than anti-Hemsky.

  85. Hockeyman 99 says:

    He is a first line Winger just not on a team that has a Yak.

  86. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: I wouldn’t do it, and I love Pietrangelo. Eberle is part of this group–an important part–and he signed with the team for long term. I don’t think that’s the kind of guy you trade.

    I most whole-heartedly agree with this.

  87. Lowetide says:

    Racki: Not directed at any person in particular, just overall. I think Eberle is now reaching a point where he can be reasonably trusted to take on tough opposition, but I’m not sure the Oilers are wise to do it. At home, the wise move imo would be to run Nuge-Hall-Ebs against the soft parade with tremendous zone starts.

    Sign them all for 7 years, and then let them kill.

  88. Hockeyman 99 says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Would you do it if it was Yakupov?

  89. Lowetide says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    Lowetide,

    Do you want a $6 million dollar second liner.

    I don’t, but the Oilers are so top heavy up fron they’re going to have one. Is it Eberle or Yak? Don’t know.

  90. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Lowetide,

    That is just it, Eberle is the one to go as painful as it might be. It makes sense. It makes the oilers a much better team. If people didn’t like Ebs it wouldn’t require a second thought, everyone does that trade and the only reason St.Louis might listen is because Eberle’s fame is his biggest asset as a hockey player. Its why he got the same money with less term than Hall and why he does ATB commercials. Hell of a player, even more famous.

  91. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Sign them all for 7 years, and then let them kill.

    Bingo.

    That said… if we are locking in Eberle and Yakupov at RW for the majority of the next decade (give or take a couple of years) at the expense of a cornerstone top pairing D…

    Of the tradeable options that are valuable enough to be paired with sweeteners for a big prize, Eberle is the one that makes the most sense. He’s into his contract now, so he’s not on a discount. He’s probably not going to outpace Yakupov, he’s easier to replace (though not that easy all the same) than Yakupov, a top pairing D or a center (if we consider Gagner as trade bait too).

    I’d prefer having Klef or Nurse step up into that role in two or three years, but we may need an option sooner and I’m not sure we’re going to luck into another Pronger 3 for 1.

  92. theres oil in virginia says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    theres oil in virginia,
    Would you do it if it was Yakupov?

    LOL, all I could think of when I read this was: “Would you do it for a Scooby snack?”! (My kid watches a lot of Scoob.)

    No, I would not. I think it’s unwise to trade the top-end of your roster. I’ve thought about this a bunch though, and looked into the Quebec Nordiques story. They traded some guys off that roster that went on to have pretty good careers. Will the Oilers have to do this? I hope not and don’t think so. The NHL is a different beast now. The Oilers have put together the part of the roster that is the hardest to put together – the top end. I know, I know, except for that top-end D-man. Maybe he’s here and we just don’t yet know it.

  93. Lowetide says:

    When my kids were small, they loved Scooby doo. My favorite episode was a combination Scooby-Johnny Bravo where the gang and Bravo had to solve the crime.

    Anyway, the part that stayed with me is this:

    VELMA: My glasses, I can’t see without my glasses!

    JOHNNY BRAVO: My glasses! I can’t be SEEN without my glasses!

    Ahaha. Man. Funny stuff.

  94. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide,

    Ranks raggy. I’ll have to check that episode out.

  95. Racki says:

    Lowetide:
    Racki: Not directed at any person in particular, just overall. I think Eberle is now reaching a point where he can be reasonably trusted to take on tough opposition, but I’m not sure the Oilers are wise to do it. At home, the wise move imo would be to run Nuge-Hall-Ebs against the soft parade with tremendous zone starts.

    Sign them all for 7 years, and then let them kill.

    Yah, I’m not sure if Eberle and co are ready for the hard minutes yet either, but that 2nd line hadn’t shown they were.. so having a guy like Hemsky who can work the puck out from his side of the 100 line is a huge benefit, I can agree with that!

    I’m interested to see how these kids look this year though. Each year Hall has looked better and better. I think Eberle would have too if he hadn’t had that wrist issue. Ditto on Nuge with his shoulder. So 2013/14 could be the year where they carry more of a burden. Who knows.

  96. Marc says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    Lowetide,

    That is just it, Eberle is the one to go as painful as it might be. It makes sense. It makes the oilers a much better team. If people didn’t like Ebs it wouldn’t require a second thought, everyone does that trade and the only reason St.Louis might listen is because Eberle’s fame is his biggest asset as a hockey player. Its why he got the same money with less term than Hall and why he does ATB commercials. Hell of a player, even more famous.

    It would be incredibly short sighted. It might make the Oilers better for a year or two, but then it would create a massive problem. The Oilers’ top 3 prospect are all high ceiling D. Add them to the pieces that area already there – J Schultz, Petry, Smid and you’ve got a serviceable (and potentially very good) top 4 without giving up anything in a couple of years.

    There isn’t, on the other hand, a single Oilers forward prospect who looks to be a sure thing top 6 NHL player. Trade Eberle and who plays RW on the second line? Who plays on the top line if Yak gets hurt? You take a position of strength and turn it into a postion of weakness.

  97. Racki says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    Lowetide,

    That is just it, Eberle is the one to go as painful as it might be. It makes sense. It makes the oilers a much better team. If people didn’t like Ebs it wouldn’t require a second thought, everyone does that trade and the only reason St.Louis might listen is because Eberle’s fame is his biggest asset as a hockey player. Its why he got the same money with less term than Hall and why he does ATB commercials. Hell of a player, even more famous.

    I’m typically the first guy to drool over Pietrangelo, but I’m not sure we need him. Well, wait.. every team could use a Pietrangelo. But he’ll come at a high cost. If I can put on my GM hat, I’d rather hang on to that cash / assets and wait for Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, etc. to emerge. In the meantime, we have a high potential offensive defenseman in Justin Schultz, and what I’d call some upper end 2nd-pairing talent like Petry, potentially Belov, etc who can still develop into good players. I think Jeff Petry is pretty underrated here. I consider him to be a poor man’s complete d-man. He can bring a stay at home game and he can bring an offensive game. We haven’t seen much of the offense just yet, but I think that’s partly to do with coaching. I know there is an offensive d-man in there, as I’d seen it when he played in Michigan.

    I think for the first time in a while we’ve got a pretty solid group of defensemen. There isn’t a guy that really jumps off the page, for sure.. but I think it will still work out well. While there isn’t a guy that is a dominant force (Save for maybe Justin Schultz), there isn’t a guy in that group that I fear having on the ice either. Defense by committee… we just need the forwards to buy in more now.

    If I felt better about Hemsky being the guy here still, I’d ship off a guy like Eberle for Pietrangelo.. maybe.. but I don’t feel that confident about him being the guy anymore.

  98. dessert1111 says:

    Would just like to chime in on a few things here…

    Given the RW depth, I’d say 65 points is a reasonable expectation for Eberle. I expect him to be closer in range to Hall and RNH though — like Bruce, I think these guys feed off each other. Looking at Hall without Eberle should be evidence of this.

    I remember rooting for Hemsky to get Calder votes way back when. Love the player. Point totals notwithstanding, I think it’s very difficult to argue that Hemsky is a better player today, even the mythical healthy Hemsky, than Eberle is. Look at underlying stats even, look at quality of competition. Hemsky had some good linemates last year and even had time with Hall — he wasn’t playing with Ben Eager all season. The idea that 30 year old Hemsky is a better player than 23 year old Eberle is pretty ridiculous to me…I think memories of Hemsky in his prime might be clouding judgment here.

    6M might end up being an overpay, but not an enormous one. I think the same potential (probably more) exists for it to be an underpay. Top line RWs get a lot of money. Worst case scenario, Eberle is still a 2RW, and probably close to the best 2RW in the league.

    If he helps the Oilers win, I don’t care if Eberle gets 50 points next year. Hopefully once the playoffs are in sight, we as fans bicker less about the value of these players relative to each other and enjoy the team as a whole more.

  99. hags9k says:

    I admire your loyalty to Hemmer but when you say he is better than Eberle, reasonable just left town. 14 has been the 1RW since the toe drag.

    Even though you hate him, I think your #s are a solid projection. A lot will depend on the baby Nuge’s wing.

  100. Racki says:

    hags9k:
    I admire your loyalty to Hemmer but when you say he is better than Eberle, reasonable just left town.14 has been the 1RW since the toe drag.

    Even though you hate him, I think your #s are a solid projection.A lot will depend on the baby Nuge’s wing.

    Uh, pretty sure LT doesn’t hate Eberle. Just he thinks that Hemsky is better. We’re all entitled to our opinions though, even if he’s obviously wrong (lol.. I kid).

  101. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    When my kids were small, they loved Scooby doo. My favorite episode was a combination Scooby-Johnny Bravo where the gang and Bravo had to solve the crime.

    Anyway, the part that stayed with me is this:

    VELMA: My glasses, I can’t see without my glasses!

    JOHNNY BRAVO: My glasses! I can’t be SEEN without my glasses!

    Ahaha. Man. Funny stuff.

    Johnny Bravo. One of the best.

    “Wanna see me comb my hair really fast?”

  102. Lowetide says:

    A healthy Hemsky. We haven’t seen that in some time. Probably :-)

  103. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide:
    A healthy Hemsky. We haven’t seen that in some time. Probably

    Hemsky was fine – 7 years ago.

  104. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909: Hemsky was fine – 7 years ago.

    Hemsky’s last Hemsky season was 2008-09. Not quite 7 years ago, but I get your point.

  105. hags9k says:

    Racki,

    Oh I know he doesn’t hate him, it’s just what we say isn’t it? The summary shows that LT loves this player like we all do, very accurate. I think the contract is going to be tough to cover but he can do it. And if Yakcity passes Ebs like a house on the side of the road, that probably means he’ll be Hart worthy.

  106. Lowetide says:

    hags9k:
    Racki,

    Oh I know he doesn’t hate him, it’s just what we say isn’t it?The summary shows that LT loves this player like we all do, very accurate.I think the contract is going to be tough to cover but he can do it.

    Yeah, no we’re cool. Why do you hate him? is kind of a thing. :-)

  107. stevezie says:

    hunter1909: Ales Hemsky’s like a musician that wasn’t quite good enough to make it in the music business

    I was going to go through your post point by point and demostrate the depth of your wrongness, but I think isolating the above quote does an even better job of invalidating your arguments.

  108. Racki says:

    hags9k:
    Racki,

    Oh I know he doesn’t hate him, it’s just what we say isn’t it?The summary shows that LT loves this player like we all do, very accurate.I think the contract is going to be tough to cover but he can do it.And if Yakcity passes Ebs like a house on the side of the road, that probably means he’ll be Hart worthy.

    Oh aren’t I the noob.. carry on. haha I kind of figured it was just an inside joke of sorts.

  109. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Marc,

    Peitrangelo is what we Hope Nurse can become and failure is more likely than succes. He will play on the Canadian Olympic Team and is 23. Short sighted is not trading for him when he will be your 1 d-man for 8 years+. St.Louis does not trade him for Eberle unless there is another factor like contract trouble. Realistically it would probably take Smid, Musil and Ebs for Peitrangelo, Our 2nd and Steen.

  110. gcw_rocks says:

    I love what Eberle brings as a player, but I would trade him for Pietroangelo in a heart beat.

  111. Marc says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    The point is that the difference between what Nurse/Klefbom become and what Pietrangelo is is almost certainly smaller than the difference between Eberle and whoever replaces him – because the Oilers don’t have anyone to replace him.

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