RE 13-14 JUSTIN SCHULTZ: STARMAN

Justin Schultz had an amazing pro debut in Oklahoma City, and moved smoothly into the NHL (10, 3-3-6 +1) before drowning in the wreck of the Edmund FitzKreuger. Can he recover?

j schultz bio

RE 13-14: 80, 13-28-41

  1. Your projections seem low. Hey, he’s killed it in the last three seasons (two in college and this past season AHL-NHL) but with a new coach I think it’s best to be careful in projecting big numbers. We’re not absolutely certain how everyone will be used, although I’ve certainly kept the PP numbers in his overall boxcars.
  2. Yeah, but he’s a 50-point guy based on this past season. On a losing team (and he would have scored 46 in 82 games). We don’t know what the new coach will do, and we shouldn’t assume he’ll play 17 and a half minutes a night at even strength. Some of those minutes may go elsewhere, although I do think he’ll match his 3 minutes PP of a year ago.
  3. How was he at the WHC’s? 8, 0-4-4 +1 he played well from all reports.
  4. He had some impressive numbers in some areas. Offensively, Schultz ranked in a tie for 12th among defensemen in points, tied for 8th among blue in goals, tied for 7th in powerplay points among defenseman and he played 21:26 a night. As a rookie!
  5. So? This is an outstanding talent (age 22) who should have a long and productive career. His puck handling ability is all world, his offensive creativity is off the map. He is a sublime talent, who can create with the top end forwards on this team. Music!
  6. That minus 17 was ugly. In his first 19 games in the NHL, Schultz was 5-7-12, -4. In his final 29, he was 3-12-15 -13. I think chaos entered his game in a big way when he began to flag. I have no idea why the Oilers didn’t sit him for a few games.
  7. What would a good team have done with Schultz? Well, that 21:26 a night is quite a bit for a rookie, and when he began struggling there’s no doubt in my mind a team that had options would have allowed him to see the game from the gondola. And while I’m at it Nick “dog whistle” Schultz responding to loud noises by going jailbreak into the offensive end was no help. At all.
  8. Is that why MacT added 82 defensemen? Partly, I also think he remembers the teams he coached here and knows well that an NHL team will likely use the 10th D on their depth chart, certainly far more often than a depth winger or a #3 goaltender. I also think Eakins is used to working with a lot of defensive options, and that MacT probably decided that a lack of a Pronger-Chara could best be addressed with better depth. This is as deep an Oiler depth chart I’ve seen in 20 years–that’s not to be mistaken for quality, but they go basically 2 teams deep right now (12 d) who could play in a pinch.
  9. Name them. Smid-Petry, Ference-JSchultz, NSchultz-Potter, Grebeshkov-Belov, Klefbom-Larsen, Marincin-Fedun.
  10. Are you going to do a ‘training camp hopeful’ for the defense? Yes.
  11. Why? Rom.
  12. Jerk. Yeah, I know.
  13. How did he do defensively last season? The Vollman Player Chart is below.
  14. That’s not a red color bubble, is it? Well, it’s pink. Ralph Krueger trusted two guys a lot, two other guys some, and then may have shut his eyes when the other three were on the ice. The good news is Schultz was in the second pairing, and his Corsi Rel was close to even par. It’s a pink bubble, slightly negative but if the Oilers had given him a rest in there I bet he would have been in the blue (and remember this is Corsl Rel, they’re all a long way from even par as a group).
  15. Schultz should have been able to push the puck in a better direction, right? Rookie defensemen on bad teams with no options aren’t going to be in the blue bubble, it just doesn’t happen. All things considered, and despite enormous anecdotal evidence of bad decisions during his poor streak, I think there’s a lot of evidence that he can in fact play defense. I don’t think it’ll ever get mentioned because of his offensive prowess, but that’s not why he’s in the NHL. Schultz with a reliable veteran should be a good second pairing option as early as this season.
  16. Who would be the idea partner for him? Someone like Chara would be ideal.
  17. Be reasonable. Anyone? I suspect they’ll try Ference there, but I also wonder if there’s a chance Laddy Smid ends up being the partner for young Schultz. Other candidates might include the Russian Grebeshkov.
  18. Why this song? He kind of came from outer space in that we didn’t spend four years wondering about him as a prospect. Also, if he scores 50 points he will in fact blow our minds.
  19. Who was the last Oilers blue to post a 50 point season? Souray, 2008-09. And before that Chris Pronger in 2005-06.
  20. Based on this season, how good could Schultz be? He could be a cornerstone for this franchise for a decade on defense. An absolute piss cutter. I think the chaos at the end of the season has clouded the enthusiasm, but he’s a brilliant player surrounded by young men of similar quality. Justin Schultz was a gift, we’re just going to have to get used to the blessing and just how much he’s going to impact the future.
  21. Is he going to be expensive? God yes. Very expensive when they start buying free agent seasons.
  22. They’ll eventually have to trade one of these impact kids, you know.  Yes. Agreed.
  23. Who will it be? I can’t see the Oilers dealing any of Hall, Eberle or Nuge. So that leaves Schultz the younger and the Russian.
  24. Horrible to think either will get sent away. It’ll be a tough day, MacT will have to make sure he gets max return.
  25. Is there a way around it? Using Hall as the outer marker, if MacT can get Nuge and Schultz done with a reasonable number then maybe they can add Yak City and have it come in at $27M or so for the five. That would be well less than half of the overall cap. They still have to pay Petry, sign Dubnyk and one would imagine they’ll be after a free agent defenseman again next summer.

EDMONTON OILERS ROOKIE SCORING, DEFENSEMAN

  1. Tom Gilbert (07-08) 82gp, 13-20-33
  2. Paul Coffey (80-81) 74gp, 9-23-32
  3. Randy Gregg (82-83) 80gp, 6-22-28
  4. Justin Schultz (12-13) 48gp, 8-19-27
  5. Marc-Andre Bergeron (03-04) 54gp, 9-17-26
  6. Steve Smith (85-86) 55gp, 4-20-24
  7. Dan McGillis (96-97) 73gp, 6-16-22
  8. Kevin Lowe (79-80) 64gp, 2-19-21
  9. Tom Poti (98-99) 73gp, 5-16-21

JUSTIN SCHULTZ VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER 2012-13

2012-13 vollman oilers d

 

 

 

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54 Responses to "RE 13-14 JUSTIN SCHULTZ: STARMAN"

  1. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I feel like we should all wait for rickithebear before we get started.

    Ricki, the floor is yours sir.

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    I feel like we should all wait for rickithebear before we get started.

    Ricki, the floor is yours sir.

    Sorry, can’t wait. Ricki, feel free to ramble as if the conversation has not yet engaged you. I’m sure you are used to this.

    ——–
    “the wreck of the Edmund FitzKreuger”

    Priceless.

    ———
    “How was he at the WHC’s? 8, 0-4-4 +1 he played well from all reports.”

    Ruff treatment. I can’t recall but wasn’t he 3rd pairing, 1st PP? At any rate, his charms clearly glimmered in Ruff’s eyes.

    How huge would his opening of the year have to be to get an Olympic look-see? Massive, world-eating size is my guess.

    ———
    “That minus 17 was ugly. In his first 19 games in the NHL, Schultz was 5-7-12, -4. In his final 29, he was 3-12-15 -13. I think chaos entered his game in a big way when he began to flag.”

    This might be a good time to recall the articles WG posted yesterday. Schultz the Wonder’s CA (corsi against) was very, very ugly last year.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/08/hello-goodbye.html/comment-page-1#comment-245617

    This doesn’t account for the offence Schultz brings, but it is telling. One caveat I would have mentioned yesterday, if I were around, is that a rolling chart (like Yost’s for team corsi) for Schultz would be very interesting to see if we was a wreck in his own end from day one, had a gradual decline over the year, or if he did indeed take a sharp dive at some point after some decent play.

    It would be interesting to see such a chart for his OKC games too.

    ——–
    “I have no idea why the Oilers didn’t sit him for a few games.”
    “there’s no doubt in my mind a team that had options would have allowed him to see the game from the gondola.”

    So… this reads as a very late defense of Ryan Whitney’s exit speech.

    ——–
    “Name them. Smid-Petry, Ference-JSchultz, NSchultz-Potter, Grebeshkov-Belov, Klefbom-Larsen, Klefbom-Fedun and Marincin is a baker’s dozen and I may have forgotten one or two along the way.”

    Just curious, why list Klefbom twice here?
    And, which Russian is supposed to play both sides again? I can’t recall, but I thought it was Grebs, not Belov?

    ——–
    “Are you going to do a ‘training camp hopeful’ for the defense? Yes.
    Why? Rom.
    Jerk. Yeah, I know.”

    I know. that guy’s the worst.

    So… can I expect a consistent order from here for the blue… points? or are you suddenly going to switch to “sides” “games played” “EVTOI” or some other metric?

    ———-
    “Other candidates might include the Russian Grebeshkov.”

    “Chaos incorporated?” I would have thought after Ference and Ladi good ole N. Schultz (minus the dog whistle) would be the match.

    ——–
    “Is there a way around it?”

    Signing them to long deals now (Staples’ idea) and having the cap skyrocket?

    ——-
    “Why this song? He kind of came from outer space in that we didn’t spend four years wondering about him as a prospect. Also, if he scores 50 points he will in fact blow our minds.”

    It’s worth noting here the temperament of Schultz. He is indeed a marvelous talent. But he also presents as extraordinarily shy, quiet, humble, deferential and polite.

    There’s a starman waiting in the sky
    Hed like to come and meet us
    But he thinks he’d blow our minds

    Only a very polite person would “like to come and meet” someone and express it just so.
    Only a very polite person would show such concern over his effect on others, especially when he merely “thinks” he might have a detrimental effect.

    Our starman is very considerate.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Rom: I was supposed to be the jerk in that conversation (knowing both sides of the conversation is really a blessing). :-)

    As for Klefbom, I knew there was something wrong with the list but stared at it for a time and didn’t see it. I believe it’s Belov who can play RH side, but it doesn’t matter–any team MacT is associated with will have guys out of position.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Rom: Also, it will go by total points for the regulars, and the ‘TCH’ will go from the least GP projection to the greatest.

  5. Gino says:

    Lowtide, which current player does he compare too. I think of him becoming a future Mike Green if he can put on an extra 20 pounds.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Gino:
    Lowtide, which current player does he compare too. I think of him becoming a future Mike Green if he can put on an extra 20 pounds.

    Schultz doesn’t have a lot of blueline style comparables imo, he’s very mobile in the offensive zone, he’s unique. I think Schultz’s brilliance is that he’s an attacking defenseman, you might see him in the slot one second and the blueline the next.

    I know Pat Quinn would hate him. :-)

  7. godot10 says:

    I think if you take away JSchultz’s time with Whitney on defense, that light pink bubble turns blue.

  8. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    I think if you take away JSchultz’s time with Whitney on defense, that light pink bubble turns blue.

    Absolutely. They were not a good pairing.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1683&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Rom: I was supposed to be the jerk in that conversation (knowing both sides of the conversation is really a blessing).

    If I was your editor I’d tell you the other possible reading is funnier and ambiguity is key to making the passage more interesting. Tension is always interesting.

    Lowetide:
    Rom: Also, it will go by total points for the regulars, and the ‘TCH’ will go from the least GP projection to the greatest.

    I eagerly await showing displeasure with your estimation of Belov.

    Gino:
    Lowtide, which current player does he compare too. I think of him becoming a future Mike Green if he can put on an extra 20 pounds.

    At 23 how much more poundage can we reasonably put on his frame?

    I recall that year Gagner bulked up only to complain about feeling slow footed, or something like that.

  10. Ribs says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: “I have no idea why the Oilers didn’t sit him for a few games.”
    “there’s no doubt in my mind a team that had options would have allowed him to see the game from the gondola.”
    So… this reads as a very late defense of Ryan Whitney’s exit speech.

    Except that Ryan Whitney was clearly NOT an option.

  11. Lois Lowe says:

    I think that Schultz’s high end comparable is Lubo and at a low end is Brian Campbell. Either way, the Oilers got a helluva player and need to ink him long term at some point this season.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: One caveat I would have mentioned yesterday, if I were around, is that a rolling chart (like Yost’s for team corsi) for Schultz would be very interesting to see if we was a wreck in his own end from day one, had a gradual decline over the year, or if he did indeed take a sharp dive at some point after some decent play.

    Where would I find the corsi numbers for each game for a particular player?

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ribs: Except that Ryan Whitney was clearly NOT an option.

    Doesn’t matter. A Whitney defender (say, Ricki) could take this as giving credence to Whitney’s assessment that other players deserved to be scratched who weren’t.

    It’s not about getting Whitney a spot. It’s about justifying resentment.

  14. Zipdot says:

    This may be a bit off topic here, but I was just re-watching season 3 of Oil Change and something caught my eye.

    Recently, I guess in the last 3 weeks or so, Ryan Jones was first paired with the word “skill” here. After Lowetide mentioned that Jones is working a skilled player role, which was a provocative claim, commentary on the blog gravitated towards the question, “what defines a skilled player?”

    So I woke up a little earlier than the old lady this morning and I thought I’d watch some Oil Change.

    08:30: Ryan Jones: “Throughout my life, I WAS NEVER THE SKILL GUY”

    08:33: Ryan Jones: “I was just the kid who loved the game…”

    If I made a list of “skill guys”, it might be 300 names long before Ryan Jones crossed someone’s mind.

  15. theres oil in virginia says:

    Can anyone remember which game it was where Justin Schultz came back into the defensive end and made a brilliant defensive play to stop either a breakaway or 2 on 1, or similar? That’s driving me (more) nuts (than I already am).

    Kinda off topic, but: I went looking for a youtube video that I saw a couple of years ago, showing how awful Mike Green is at playing the defensive side of defenseman, but I found this instead:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2vAjVEclPo

    Mike Green crosschecks Derek Dorsett in the face last year during the playoffs. I would like to draw your attention to 1:20 of that video (although the whole thing is worth a look). Watch Dorsett attempt to slew-foot Green into the boards, right before Green crosschecks him in the face. As long as the NHL continues to put up with that crap (the slew-foot), they’ll continue to be a joke as a professional league. Fucking Ed Snider!

    Even more off topic, but: That play is very similar to the play in which Omark broke his ankle in the Goon-HL. Which reminds me, why the hell would Omark consent to play in that league again?

    And now I’ve got to go find something to reduce my blood pressure/temperature.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Zipdot:
    This may be a bit off topic here, but I was just re-watching season 3 of Oil Change and something caught my eye.

    Recently, I guess in the last 3 weeks or so, Ryan Jones was first paired with the word “skill” here.After Lowetide mentioned that Jones is working a skilled player role, which was a provocative claim, commentary on the blog gravitated towards the question, “what defines a skilled player?”

    So I woke up a little earlier than the old lady this morning and I thought I’d watch some Oil Change.

    08:30: Ryan Jones: “Throughout my life, I WAS NEVER THE SKILL GUY”

    08:33: Ryan Jones: “I was just the kid who loved the game…”

    If I made a list of “skill guys”, it might be 300 names long before Ryan Jones crossed someone’s mind.

    Jones is more of an offensive player than a defensive one. He scored very well in college and offense has been in his resume all down the line. One of the reasons EDM signed him no doubt was to give the team more offense from the 3 and 4 lines.

    Jones isn’t a checker, I just don’t see that part of the game being his best asset. And I challenge you to find 300 NHL forwards who have shown more offense in the NHL than Jones since he arrived in Edmonton.

    He may talk a humble game, and he might not be my favorite player, but there aren’t 10 better offensive forwards on EVERY TEAM IN THE NHL than Ryan Jones.

    We’re now slipping into deep, deep hyperbole on Ryan Jones’ offensive ability. Incredible.

  17. David says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    The game was against Columbus and it was a breakaway. I’ve never seen anything like it. Every time someone is is trying to catch a player on a breakaway they either swat at the puck, dive and sweep at the puck, or hook the guy. Justin Schultz did the slickest stick lift and steal the puck away I’ve ever seen.

  18. wheatnoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: One caveat I would have mentioned yesterday, if I were around, is that a rolling chart (like Yost’s for team corsi) for Schultz would be very interesting to see if we was a wreck in his own end from day one, had a gradual decline over the year, or if he did indeed take a sharp dive at some point after some decent play.

    You can find the game by game corsi at boysonthebus.com and timeonice.com allows you to enter game numbers to get the corsi for any individual NHL game, however I think it uses total corsi and not even-strength corsi.

    Either way, I can save you the time. J. Schultz had a strong first 5 games or so and then started to struggle. His weakest point was actually between games 20 and 30 before he slowly started to recover and then he nose-dived at the end of the year.

    I don’t think that rolling corsi tells the story though. As mentioned above, the with or without you stats tell a more stark picture. Schultz played the vast majority of the year with Nick as his partner and they didn’t do well, but no one on the Oilers did well. Where J. Schultz craters is when he played with Whitney where is CF (corsi for) was 36.3%. Although, in fairness, Whitney also did better when he wasn’t paired with Schultz (42.3%) but Schultz recovered better than Whitney (45.3%).

    I think we’re going to see Schultz in the press box more than once this year and that’ll be okay. Frankly, it may bring down his contract demands after next season. I don’t think he’ll be sent down to the AHL or anything, but I suspect Eakins will give him a game or two in the PB when he goes through a bad stretch (as ALL young defensemen do). After all, Eakins has the depth for that to be an option, so I suspect he’ll use it.

  19. RexLibris says:

    Travis Yost over at NHLNumbers has a Team Corsi article up for the WC.

    Here’s his take on the Oilers – “Just stare at it. Don’t look away. Don’t even blink. If you’re an Oilers fan who watched even-half of last year’s circus, you are a masochist for awful hockey. And if you made it through the entire season, you deserve the Congressional Medal of Honor. You look at a game-by-game basis and wonder if there was any sixty-minute window where this team wasn’t getting killed. It was either a bloodbath-loss, or Taylor Hall and the kids working some magic, and the Oilers desperately trying to hold on to a lead as they lay five-deep across the crease.

    The 1213 Edmonton OIlers were Wall Street Crash of 1929 bad.”

    Go here to see the full article and his graph http://nhlnumbers.com/2013/8/8/western-conference-1213-rolling-team-corsi

    It kind of puts the work of Dubnyk and the kids in perspective. This could be one heck of a team if they could just sort out their blueline and bottom six problems. I think this also speaks to why MacTavish focused on the defensemen this summer, as everything offensive flows from the defensive. Keep the puck out of the net and get it to the forwards in transitiion and at least then you have a fighting chance.

  20. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris,

    I’d like Travis Yost to do the same for the 2011/12 season. The Oilers Krueger Corsi Crash is well established. Renney had a similar roster (arguably a worse one when you consider he had no Yakupov and the wonder-kids were a year younger) and had better possession numbers. I mean, the Oilers will still look bad, I’m not denying that, but I wonder how much the numbers look different when the Oilers were line-matching.

  21. OilClog says:

    I don’t understand any negativity towards Justin Schultz, he came in a delivered what he is, an offensive minded horse on the back end. Lead the D in all offensive stats, and was paired with.. Nick Schultz, who made bad read after bad read. Ryan Whitney, who lied to everyone, including himself, with no one standing up and forcing him to realize his dilemma.

    I watched closed to 70 games, Jultz had some bad plays, but at the end of the year I look at his -17 and really think nothing of it. A rookie quarterback putting up points, success!

    Now, with the removal of Kruger, a hands on MacT, this defensive unit will be improved. Jultz will continue to round into form, turning into our Zubov. Man I despise Zubov

    I seriously believe these kids are going to just crush everyone once the rest of the roster is figured out. If MacT has improved the backend, Doobie keeps improving, these supernova’s are just going to obliterate everyone. With what they’ve been doing with no team behind them, there is no ceiling for them right now.

  22. Cactus says:

    LT,

    RE series is great as always and I think you’ve pegged the right number for J Schultz here.

    That said, I must take issue with your recurrent fatalistic prediction that one of the hot shots will need to be dealt. Even at $30 million for all 5, that’s not too large a share of your cap for your top 5 players. Pittsburgh pays more than that for 4. While I’m well aware that Taylor Hall does not equal Crosby, as long as these players live up to their salaries, the numbers aren’t too high. This will be true with a $70 million cap next season and if it continues to climb to $80M, there isn’t a problem here.

    So stop worrying already!

  23. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    We’re now slipping into deep, deep hyperbole on Ryan Jones’ offensive ability. Incredible.

    And Bruce McCurdy started it all! That rabble-rouser.
    ;)

    I agree with LT on this. Ryan Jones is a skill guy, he’s just not one of the better ones. Seems to me like he’s about one notch above “tweener”; but he’s a skill guy, not a checker or defensive-minded. Maybe “offensive-minded” is a less provocative term?

    David,
    Thanks very much! A small piece of my sanity has returned. I’ll be watching that clip over and over in preparation for the imminent bear sighting/attack.

  24. Woodguy says:

    OT, but Hall was on Bob’s show yesterday and said he’s playing C until RNH comes back.

    Explains lack of another C and keeping Hemsky around to fill out the top 6.

    Hope Hemsky starts out like a house on fire and is in the top 3 in scoring at Christmas.

    Willis has a post up on it at ON: http://oilersnation.com/2013/8/10/taylor-hall-the-fallback-centre

    I made a comment in that thread that is relevant and pimps Vollman’s book (excellent stuff, a must buy)

    Here’s the comment:

    The lack of adding another C makes more sense now.

    I was reading Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract 2013 (highly recommend it), and he has come up with a way to figure out how many passes a player makes that results in shots at the goal.

    This is to help figure out who is the best playmakers and who makes their team mates better.

    In the small sample that was last season, Vollman has this to say:

    …Crosby was still on top in 2012-13, with 5.42 passes (that result in shots) per game. Only Edmonton’s Taylor Hall, who was second with 5.00, was within a full pass per game of Pittsburgh’s phenom.

    That’s incredible.

    Hall is unreal and having him fill in at C until RNH is full speed and keep Hemsky around to fill in the top 6 is a very good idea.

    I haven’t dug deep into the math on how Vollmand gets his “passes” stat, but I’ll trust him given the track record.

    Is there anything Hall can’t do?

  25. Woodguy says:

    As for Shultz the Younger, he’s going to be a star.

    Skating and passing ability coming out of the ying-yang.

    The D will come and not having N.Shultz (I hope) or “The new 100%” Whitney as his partner will go a long way to helping that.

    I actually hope that all the D talent coming in means that Younger gets the Yandle treatment from Eakins. 3rd pairing at 5v5 and 1PP.

    If the other team is sending pure checkers out against Hall in terms of forward lines, that allows Eakins to play Younger behind that line as you don’t have to worry as much about defense if the opp checkers are out.

    If that happens, Younger might hit 50pts.

  26. Zipdot says:

    Lowetide: Jones is more of an offensive player than a defensive one. He scored very well in college and offense has been in his resume all down the line. One of the reasons EDM signed him no doubt was to give the team more offense from the 3 and 4 lines.

    Jones isn’t a checker, I just don’t see that part of the game being his best asset. And I challenge you to find 300 NHL forwards who have shown more offense in the NHL than Jones since he arrived in Edmonton.

    He may talk a humble game, and he might not be my favorite player, but there aren’t 10 better offensive forwards on EVERY TEAM IN THE NHL than Ryan Jones.

    I’m content to call him an offensive player, as he is a forward after all, but I worry that the word “skill” is being diluted when we call Jones a skill guy.

    And I think it’s a valid concern because, what is MacTavish valuing now? Skill. Skill guys. Ryan Joneses?

    I agree with one thing, though; you’re right, I couldn’t name 10 better players on every team before getting to Jones, so the 300 list is bogus. But I get the sense that you know what I’m saying, anyway…

  27. Ducey says:

    Woodguy,

    Hope Hemsky starts out like a house on fire and is in the top 3 in scoring at Christmas.

    Don’t bet on it :)

  28. Woodguy says:

    Ryan Jones 5v5 pts/60 and NHL rank among forwards

    12/13 1.38 tied for 250th place (min 20gp)

    11/12 1.46 tied for 212th place (min 40gp)

    10/11 1.38 tied for 260th place (min 40gp)

    Interesting that his “tough year” in 12/13 coming off the eye injury had the exact same 5v5 pts/60 that got him a 2 year contract from Jackassalini.

    He is what he is.

    A middle of the road 3rd liner who cheats for offence and finds himself the last man back or out of position in the Dzone too often.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Woodguy,

    Hope Hemsky starts out like a house on fire and is in the top 3 in scoring at Christmas.

    Don’t bet on it

    He broke my heart.

    Soft minutes, had 51.5%CF with Gagner the year before and then the wreck of Edmund FitzKreuger (great line btw) and Dmen who can’t pass blew it all up.

    He’s owns it too, but last year was weird, weird, weird.

    No Kruger, No Whitney, Hopefully no N.Shultz, No Petrell, etc.

    Systems that make sense and Dmen who can pass.

    Maybe, he can? :)

  30. Jordan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    “Name them. Smid-Petry, Ference-JSchultz, NSchultz-Potter, Grebeshkov-Belov, Klefbom-Larsen, Klefbom-Fedun and Marincin is a baker’s dozen and I may have forgotten one or two along the way.”
    And, which Russian is supposed to play both sides again? I can’t recall, but I thought it was Grebs, not Belov?

    Belov plays the off-wing. MacT’s own words. I’ve posted links on here several times to related articles, I believe at both Oilers.com and Oilersnation.com

    I think the numbers are quite reasonable for Justin if we expect things to proceed based on last year.

    I don’t. I think things are going to get a little crazy around here, and I expect it for 2 reasons:

    1 – The defense is miles better, especially at moving the puck. That, combined with the speed and skill the Oilers have is going to push defenders back, and make more room for the Oilers, especially with strech pasees. And, if all accounts are correct, all of them can skate. Huge upgrade, and should help limit all chances, but especially the 5 bell chances against that were created off the rush last year.

    2 – Eakins has already said he’s going into the season developing a playbook. They aren’t going to play one system, they are going to play many systems. This versatility will work very well with all the big brain players the Oilers have.

    These two items alone have me thinking that our offense numbers may be low, and our non-exisitant GA numbers may be too high for the coming season.

    Totally reasonable, but … is being reasonable really fair or logical with this group of players and the current coaching staff?

  31. Hammers says:

    As long as Eakins doesn’t play him with Nick Schultz . Guess at Ference /Petry then Belov /Justin leaving us with Smid & either Nick or Grebs . If we are honest Smid/ Petry didn’t do that well last year and I still think or hope Belov is that tough guy, decent passer with both offense & defensive capabilities that may look great with Justin . Ference could also help Petry’s game leaving us with a shut down pair . Eakins need for good “D” may throw us some surprises and probably more so than the forwards .

  32. Kris11 says:

    I was thinking about lines the other day. With Nuge out, you need to form two lines that can play toughish opposition, and a defensive-minded C in Gordon will need to be on one of them.

    We know that Hemsky and Perron can play tough minutes, Eberle is best suited to play with Hall. And Yakupov is best off sheltered. So, I’d start with:

    Hall-Gagner-Eberle (tough)
    Perron-Gordon-Hemsky (tough and own zone especially)
    Joensuu-Lander-Yakupov (shelter as much as possible)
    Smyth-OKC Guy-Jones (crappy, but we’ve seen worse.)
    Brown

  33. theres oil in virginia says:

    Hunting for that Schultz play, and just looked at game highlights for Feb 10, EDM 3 @ CBJ 1. Lot’s of notable things (Eberle – wow!, Gagner – wow!, Dubnyk – wow!), but early in the highlights, there’s Justin Shultz standing in the corner of the defensive zone watching the play – wow!

  34. Lowetide says:

    Zipdot: I’m content to call him an offensive player, as he is a forward after all, but I worry that the word “skill” is being diluted when we call Jones a skill guy.

    And I think it’s a valid concern because, what is MacTavish valuing now?Skill.Skill guys.Ryan Joneses?

    I agree with one thing, though; you’re right, I couldn’t name 10 better players on every team before getting to Jones, so the 300 list is bogus.But I get the sense that you know what I’m saying, anyway…

    Yes, I knew what you were talking about and your point about skill being a misleading word is a good one. I’m not sure of the better word, but somewhere in the languages there a word that describes Jones as a player.

  35. KSC10032 says:

    To me, the obvious career comparative for J. Schultz — (and I’m quite surprised I’ve not seen it here yet) — is Brian Rafalski.

    VERY similar toolkits, and both are similar-sized college-trained RH defensemen. Rafalski got to sand the edges off in Finland, and arrived in NJ as a more finished project. Schultz has been thrown in the deep end with a couple of bricks tied to each leg.

    Another major disappointment of 2013 was just how poor a babysitter Schultz the elder turned out to be. One would have thought his track record would have made for a better fit.

    IMHO — young Justin has every chance to turn into the 50 point guy everyone expects, once he has his own Stevens/Lidstrom to play with. While I’m more than happy for the Oilers to commit to him long-term, I don’t see him as a genuine star; but more of a superior complementary player.

    A lot is going to depend upon the learning curves of Klefbom and Nurse.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    As long as Eakins doesn’t play him with Nick Schultz . Guess at Ference /Petry then Belov /Justin leaving us with Smid & either Nick or Grebs . If we are honest Smid/ Petry didn’t do that well last year and I still think or hope Belov is that tough guy, decent passer with both offense & defensive capabilities that may look great with Justin . Ference could also help Petry’s game leaving us with a shut down pair .Eakins need for good “D” may throw us some surprises and probably more so than the forwards .

    I think Nultz will be better in the new system. Find that dog whistle, kill that dog whistle and he might even be worth a 2nd round pick at the deadline.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: He broke my heart.

    Soft minutes, had 51.5%CF with Gagner the year before andthen the wreck ofEdmund FitzKreuger (great line btw) and Dmen who can’t pass blew it all up.

    He’s owns it too, but last year was weird, weird, weird.

    No Kruger, No Whitney, Hopefully no N.Shultz, No Petrell, etc.

    Systems that make sense and Dmen who can pass.

    Maybe, he can? :)

    Heh. Hemsky was always impossible for me to project every season because I’m not really a reasonable Hemsky fan. I heart Ales, in hockey terms. Partly because his game has real beauty–how can anyone resist it?–and partly because he is universally despised by many.

    That’s an underdog folks. Hemsky could have played for the Oakland Seals.

  38. Lowetide says:

    KSC10032:
    To me, the obvious career comparative for J. Schultz — (and I’m quite surprised I’ve not seen it here yet) — is Brian Rafalski.

    VERY similar toolkits, and both are similar-sized college-trained RH defensemen.Rafalski got to sand the edges off in Finland, and arrived in NJ as a more finished project.Schultz has been thrown in the deep end with a couple of bricks tied to each leg.

    Another major disappointment of 2013 was just how poor a babysitter Schultz the elder turned out to be.One would have thought his track record would have made for a better fit.

    IMHO — young Justin has every chance to turn into the 50 point guy everyone expects, once he has his own Stevens/Lidstrom to play with.While I’m more than happy for the Oilers to commit to him long-term, I don’t see him as a genuine star; but more of a superior complementary player.

    A lot is going to depend upon the learning curves of Klefbom and Nurse.

    Yes, that’s a great style comp. Very well done.

  39. Numenius says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Hunting for that Schultz play, and just looked at game highlights for Feb 10, EDM 3 @ CBJ 1.Lot’s of notable things (Eberle – wow!, Gagner – wow!, Dubnyk – wow!), but early in the highlights, there’s Justin Shultz standing in the corner of the defensive zone watching the play – wow!

    I remember looking for that highlight after the game but never found it. Might have to find a copy of the whole game somewhere if that’s even possible.

  40. godot10 says:

    I don’t get all the dumping on Nick Schultz. He was asked to take on 2nd toughs with a rookie D partner, playing a non-traditional NHL system, and I think he ended up with a small blue dot, I think.

    The Oilers will probably play more conventionally this year, and if he has to “babysit” JSchultz again, it will probably be 3rd pairing EV minutes, and both Schultzes will probably rock-n-roll (in their own ways).

    Or he might be paired with Ference in a 2nd pairing role.

    I think Nick Schultz might be a really nice #5 for a couple of years…a no-nonsense D to pair with the new rookie D breaking in.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Schultz did not adjust well to the Krueger system imo, and I do believe we’re seeing him at a point where he’s on the downside. These veteran D can lose it in a hurry, but I do agree that he’s a veteran and you’d always want to have too many of them on any team.

    I don’t think he’s a viable top 4 at this point though.

  42. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:

    Is there anything Hall can’t do?

    Hopefully ever make the Calgary Flames a better team

  43. theres oil in virginia says:

    Numenius: I remember looking for that highlight after the game but never found it. Might have to find a copy of the whole game somewhere if that’s even possible.

    I’ve got the internet access NHL service, so I’ve got the archived games. I watched the March CBJ @ EDM game, and now I’m going through the March EDM @ CBJ game. Next, I’ll hit the Feb EDM @ CBJ game. (What else does one do on an August Saturday?) Do you remember which of those 3 games it was?

  44. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    I don’t get all the dumping on Nick Schultz.He was asked to take on 2nd toughs with a rookie D partner, playing a non-traditional NHL system, and I think he ended up with a small blue dot, I think.

    The Oilers will probably play more conventionally this year, and if he has to “babysit” JSchultz again, it will probably be 3rd pairing EV minutes, and both Schultzes will probably rock-n-roll (in their own ways).

    Or he might be paired with Ference in a 2nd pairing role.

    I think Nick Schultz might be a really nice #5 for a couple of years…a no-nonsense D to pair with the new rookie D breaking in.

    He was poor in his last season with MIN and this past season with EDM.

    The time that “meh” is good enough has passed.

    7 years on the Taylor Hall clock.

    Need to be ruthless in terms of culling those who don’t help.

    I don’t think he helps.

  45. bosman says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Hunting for that Schultz play, and just looked at game highlights for Feb 10, EDM 3 @ CBJ 1

    Judging by LT’s game day thread it was indeed the Feb 10 game, but I can’t find the highlight either.

  46. theres oil in virginia says:

    “…As far as 5 on 5 goes, they play a really aggressive system. It’s almost man on man in every zone; their defense are really pinching on our wingers and our wingers are key; to get back to our defense in the mid-zone and our end and give themselves a bit of time and get past it the challenge of those pinching defensemen; and if we’ve got people skating to the pucks, one missed assignment and we’re by them and we’ll have an odd man or we’ll get some scoring chances.”

    3 guesses as to who that quote is from and what he’s referring to.

  47. Numenius says:

    theres oil in virginia: I’ve got the internet access NHL service, so I’ve got the archived games.I watched the March CBJ @ EDM game, and now I’m going through the March EDM @ CBJ game.Next, I’ll hit the Feb EDM @ CBJ game.(What else does one do on an August Saturday?)Do you remember which of those 3 games it was?

    I’d guess it’s the Feb game. I remember it came earlier in the season. It wasn’t the last game.

  48. theres oil in virginia says:

    bosman,
    Numenius,
    I think I can safely say it’s not the other two games. I’m on the Feb game now.

  49. theres oil in virginia says:

    Wow! Finally found it. It’s at about the 2:00 mark of the 2nd period of the Feb 10 EDM @ CBJ game.

    Oilers are on the power-play. Eberle weakly pushes the puck back to Schultz at the blue line, which doesn’t give him much time before Dubinsky is on him. Schultz tries to side-step Dubinsky to the middle of the ice, but Dubinsky knocks the puck away from him and towards the Oilers end. The race is on! At the start, Dubinsky is facing the puck and Schultz is heading laterally and a bit toward the Jackets net. Dubinsky doesn’t have momentum in the right direction, but he gets started first. Schultz pulls up hard just inside the Jackets blue line and digs in. Dubinsky takes the puck at the Oilers blue line and by that time Schultz is already about a stride behind him but more to the middle of the ice with Dubinsky on the outside. As Dubinsky drifts toward the middle, Schultz cuts to the outside behind him and is right behind him at the top of the circle. He reaches around Dubinsky and executes the stick-lift, then turns the puck back up ice. Dubinsky skates back to the bench where the camera catches him with his mouth open and his eyes closed.

    Fucking beautiful. Why didn’t that make the highlights? Now that I’ve found it, I’m going to watch it about 12 times a day.

    EDIT: Thanks for the assistance in finding this. It was really driving me nuts.

  50. Numenius says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Wow!Finally found it.It’s at about the 2:00 mark of the 2nd period of the Feb 10 EDM @ CBJ game.

    Fucking beautiful.Why didn’t that make the highlights?Now that I’ve found it, I’m going to watch it about 12 times a day.

    EDIT: Thanks for the assistance in finding this.It was really driving me nuts.

    Any chance of putting that on youtube? I’d love to see it.

  51. theres oil in virginia says:

    Numenius,

    If I knew how to do it, it’d be up there already and there’d be a link here right now. If I ever figure out how to, I’ll post it.

  52. theres oil in virginia says:

    File this under: It’s amazing what you find when you look for it.

    I figured out how to make the video. It’ll take me some time to actually do it and post it online. I’ll post a link to it, on whatever the current LT post is, when I get it done.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Very cool! I just threw up the Belov RE, so you can post it there (and here would be good to, for reference purposes).

  54. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide,

    Will do. I hope it shows up there this afternoon, by roughly 3 PM, y’all’s time. We’ll see. I have to figure out the youtube part, but I’m guessing that’s relatively simple. Somehow though, Sunday morning turned into a work day, and I’ve got some stuff I’ve got to take care of first. Aargh!

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