REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS SCORING 13-14: MORE OFFENSE!

This should be the best offensive team Edmonton Oiler fans have seen since the Stanley team of 2006. That club was led by Hemsky, Pronger, Smyth, Horcoff, Stoll, Torres and a flying Pisani in the spring. This edition is led by Taylor Hall and the onrushing generation of impact draft picks along with Jeff Petry. The big names are well known to us, and the upsurge for this edition of the Oilers has everything to do with the maturation of the #1 overall picks.

Everything.

EDMONTON OILERS RE 2013-14

NAME GP G A PTS
TAYLOR HALL  70 37 45 82
JORDAN EBERLE  78 28 37 65
RYAN NUGENT HOPKINS  62 21 42 63
NAIL YAKUPOV  82 29 23 52
SAM GAGNER   82 15 37 52
DAVID PERRON 69 20 24 44
ALES HEMSKY  66 11 25 36
RYAN SMYTH  72 12 16 28
BOYD GORDON 78 5 15 20
RYAN JONES  73 9 10 19
JESSE JOENSUU 51 7 7 14
ANTON LANDER  50 4 8 12
MARK ARCOBELLO 25 2 6 8
RYAN HAMILTON 30 1 5 6
WILL ACTON 20 1 3 4
MIKE BROWN 51 1 2 3
BEN EAGER  5 0 1 1
ANDREW MILLER 2 0 0 0
TONI RAJALA 2 0 0 0
         
    202 301  
         
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 80 13 28 41
ANTON BELOV 60 6 16 22
JEFF PETRY 75 3 17 20
ANDREW FERENCE 76 3 14 17
LADISLAV SMID 70 1 9 10
DENIS GREBESHKOV 60 1 9 10
COREY POTTER 27  1 6 7
NICK SCHULTZ 35 1 4 5
OSCAR KLEFBOM 20 0 3 3
MARTIN MARINCIN 0 1 1
PHIL LARSEN 0 0 0
TAYLOR FEDUN 0 0 0
    29 106  
         
THIS YEAR’S RE  231  407
LAST YEAR’S RE  224  394

Among the major increases year over year from projections one summer ago:

  • Taylor Hall up from 66, 35-32-67 (1.01) to 1.17 based on his impressive season in 12-13 (50 points in 45 games, 1.11)
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins up smartly, more in line with his rookie season
  • A major increase in projected goals by Nail Yakupov (his RE a year ago was 77, 18-26-44)
  • Justin Schultz towering over my RE for him one year ago (75, 7-19-26)

Starting tomorrow: the goaltending and North by Northwest (although we have to think of a new name. South Pacific?)

 

 

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40 Responses to "REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS SCORING 13-14: MORE OFFENSE!"

  1. theres oil in virginia says:

    The only RE that makes me question the definition of ‘realistic’ is Taylor Hall. I’m not saying I agree or disagree with the expectation, but 37 goals is a bunch. Each time I see it, I wonder a bit more if it’s too high.
    For example, what would RE be for Stamkos? The guy’s a perennial 50 goal scorer (except for stupid lockout years – fucking Ed Snider), but is that realistic to expect every year? I’m thinking my RE for Stamkos would be about 37 goals. Taylor Hall ain’t Stamkos. You think I’m off, or are you still comfortable with 37 goals, a couple of weeks after first writing it?

  2. Ducey says:

    Your expectation is that the Oilers will score 2.82 goals/ game. That would have put them in 7th place last year in goals for (just ahead of the Islanders (2.81) and below the Leaves who were at 3.02).

    Last year they were 18th in goals for at 2.56. That was a slight improvement from 20th (2.52) in 2011-12.

    A jump of 11 spots. Is that reasonable?

    I think I might find a way to estimate them at around 10th – 12th in goals for.

  3. theres oil in virginia says:

    Aah, coffee is good. I now realize that I was more focused on perpetuation of the ‘scare quotes’ meme than I was on using the ‘right’ word. That should be ‘reasonable’ above, not ‘realistic’. Also, I guess my point is: would you be disappointed if Hall ‘only’ had 32 goals?

  4. Lowetide says:

    A lot of the growth in GF this season is on the powerplay. Oilers have been very strong on the PP (averaging 50 goals for 5×4 per 82gp) in the last couple of seasons. I think they’ll go north of that, and was astounded to see they kept their pace 5×4 this past season despite not seeing the weaker eastern conference at all.

    I also believe Hall is going to punish the eastern teams. Many of the clubs in the American southeast represent the soft underbelly of the league.

  5. Ice Sage says:

    For the new conference, how about we take a tour around the…

    Pacific Rim?

    (very ‘beastly’ movie, my teens tell me)

  6. sliderule says:

    The oilers will score but probably not at your reasonable expectations.

    If Eakins can get the forwards to buy into playing defense away from the puck our top line might get a plus minus somewhere in the mid twenties.A little less scoring perhaps but less pulling puck out of our own net.

    If that happens we will win enough games to contend for playoffs.

  7. G Money says:

    Re: Ducey’s point – while that does seem like a big jump, I think that the increase when mapped in real world terms (+.26 gpg) means an extra goal every four games. That’s not so unreasonable – we *should* expect this team to be in the top half of explosiveness in the league.

    On the overall RE’s:

    - Hall’s RE in this context seems ambitious. I think his ‘supernova’ jump to 1.11ppg last year was fantastic, and he may continue to build on that, but there was also an element of good fortune in those numbers too (e.g. Staple’s scoring chance conversion rate). I think RE would be to keep 1.11 ppg, with the improvement in Hall’s game and better years from Nuge and Eberle offsetting the reversion to the mean in the scoring chance conversion rate.

    - RNH goes supernova this year. Your 1.0ppg seems pretty fair. I hope its conservative! Let’s not forget that Nuge outscored every one of our other super-rookies in his rookie year.

    - Eberle’s number also seems reasonable. I think he is a mid-60s player, with good years stretching into the 70s. Be prepared to be asked why you hate Eberle so much!

    - Why do you hate Yakupov so much? Or rather: your scoring rate for Yak is *lower* than his scoring rate last year, even though this year he’ll be in his second year and it looks like he’ll play on his natural wing. Is this assuming a sophomore slump? Personally, I think if Yak stays healthy he puts up 60+ points.

    - Why do you hate Gagner so much? Or more specifically: your 52 in 82 (0.634 ppg) prediction is right in line with Gagner’s 2011-12 scoring rate of 0.627 ppg, and well off his rate of 0.792 last year. While I don’t believe that last years small sample represents anything sustainable, in context of Gagner’s age, that was the season we *should* have expected a bump in his scoring rates. I would think something closer to 0.7 ppg (like Yak, about 60 points) would be more “fair” in terms of an RE.

  8. Jordan says:

    Lowetide,

    Starting tomorrow: the goaltending and North by Northwest (although we have to think of a new name. South Pacific?)

    I’d go with something like “Out of the Frying Pan”, “The Gauntlet” or “Welcome to the Jungle”. Pacific Rim isn’t bad.

    Taylor Hall up from 66, 35-32-67 (1.01) to 1.17 based on his impressive season in 12-13 (50 points in 45 games, 1.11)

    Still think you’re underestimating what is reasonable for this kid. I know I’m in the minority, (and clearly somewhat of a nutter, based on the responses I’ve gotten) but I firmly believe this is the year for the Supernova.

    I also believe Hall is going to punish the eastern teams. Many of the clubs in the American southeast represent the soft underbelly of the league.

    On this we agree. On this point alone I expect him to make up the difference between your RE and mine.

  9. Jon K says:

    Shall we begin referring to the Edmonton Oilers 2013-2014 as the Vaunt 2.0? Or might that be inviting the wrath of the hockey gods?

  10. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Lowetide:
    A lot of the growth in GF this season is on the powerplay. Oilers have been very strong on the PP (averaging 50 goals for 5×4 per 82gp) in the last couple of seasons. I think they’ll go north of that, and was astounded to see they kept their pace 5×4 this past season despite not seeing the weaker eastern conference at all.

    I also believe Hall is going to punish the eastern teams. Many of the clubs in the American southeast represent the soft underbelly of the league.

    Relying on the PP is fraught with peril.

    While the personnel is certainly in place, that can be said for more than a few other teams who have seen their PP% fluctuate widely from season to season.

    For example, Chicago, which I’m sure you’ll agree has some fine talents to throw out on the PP has seen these numbers in the past 5 seasons.

    12/13 16.7 (19th)

    11/12 15.2 (26th)

    10/11 23.1 (4th)

    09/10 17.7 (16th)

    08/09 19.3 (12th)

    Similarly, Vancouver’s PP over that same time frame has ranked 8th, 4th, 1st, 6th, 17th.

    An an even more telling example is Nashville which went from having the league leading! PP in 11/12 at 21.6% to 17th and 17.1% in 12/13.

    There seems to be a lot of serendipity involved in PP success or failure and the numbers can swing wildly from one season to the next.

    Is it “puck luck”?

  11. Jonathan Willis says:

    Well for classic movie references it’s pretty much “South Pacific” or nothing.

    You could always try the original Portuguese – “Mar Pacifico” and run the picture of Balboa claiming the ocean.

    Music-wise, Neil Young’s “Southern Pacific” comes to mind, though the theme’s rather wrong for the Oilers right now.

  12. LMHF#1 says:

    Matheson’s Hemsky piece contains an interesting “do you know how to watch a hockey game” test.

    ” But, he’s also a stubborn player with the puck, at times, …..rushing down the right side, circling the net and parking himself on the left wall even-strength, rather than cutting to the net.”

    If you can’t see why he does this and think it is because he’s “stubborn”, you either don’t know enough about watching hockey to be writing about it anymore, or are pretty damn stubborn about playing the game incorrectly.

    Think SHOOOOOT fan. Same idea.

  13. PDO says:

    LMHF#1:
    Matheson’s Hemsky piece contains an interesting “do you know how to watch a hockey game” test.

    ” But, he’s also a stubborn player with the puck, at times, …..rushing down the right side, circling the net and parking himself on the left wall even-strength, rather than cutting to the net.”

    If you can’t see why he does this and think it is because he’s “stubborn”, you either don’t know enough about watching hockey to be writing about it anymore, or are pretty damn stubborn about playing the game incorrectly.

    Think SHOOOOOT fan. Same idea.

    The best part of that, is if I try to think of any Hemsky goal, it’s almost universally one of him driving to the net.

  14. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    One consideration for goals for/against is penalty +/-. I did a post on this last month.

    http://oilonwhyte.com/2013/07/18/the-oilers-and-penalty-plusminus/

    A lot of the guys who had a negative +/- are now gone.

    Last season the strong PK% was somewhat negated by how many penalties the Oilers took.

  15. Hammers says:

    Think your high in goals on both Hall & Yak and a bit low on Gags . Time he got 20 . Also if Perron only gets 44 points I will be both surprised and more dissapointed in the trade than I have been . Your overall Re is probably close just looking to see if points can be gotten elsewhere . This would also project Hall for 95 points if he played all 82 games . On the “D” I don’t see Justin playing 80 games but hope he does . Now making the playoffs falls to the goalies, mainly Dubie .A very good season we are in . Just a Good season and we won’t make it .

  16. stevezie says:

    Dead Cat Bounce,

    Respectfully, I think you’re getting seduced by the personal and missing the fairly consistent results.

    It looks to me like Vancouver is a reliable top ten powerplay. Chicago is a reliably mediocre. Yes the spikes we all know about can push them dramatically up or down for one season, but for each team if you take out the outlier season I would describe their results as consistent. Especially Vancouver.

    Sure the OIlers could screwed or jetset if they experience an outlier season, but this is true for everyone, non?

  17. Big Oil Truck says:

    Long time reader, first post. Thanks for the great stuff LT and gang.
    Thought (hoped) Hemmer would be traded a few seasons back when it seemed the oil could get value for him. Good hockey player but only get a half season out of him or always manages to be injured at the trade deadline. I think when they finally trade him he will be causing the oil pain in the back of the net.

  18. theres oil in virginia says:

    Across the Pacific?

    It’s apparently an old Bogart flick. Maybe Rom or Spoiler have seen it.

  19. Lowetide says:

    The thing about Hall is there are so many good arrows:

    1. #1 overalls go super nova around this period, we saw evidence of it in the short season.
    2. Taylor Hall ranked 67th overall among NHL forwards in TOI per game while finishing 9th in scoring
    3. The new coach has spoken at length about riding his players in search of wins.

    Taylor Hall and his linemates aren’t going to get the ‘Krueger 4line rotation’ they just aren’t, and in fact I’d expect Hall’s TOI to be closer to top 10 overall.

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    PDO: The best part of that, is if I try to think of any Hemsky goal, it’s almost universally one of him driving to the net.

    Which is of course because he knows when to drive the net and when to safely retain possession while waiting for extra attackers. Gretzky peeled off all the time.

    Can someone get a camera on some of these guys during a game sometime? I’d really like to know if they actually watch the play anymore. The post-game commentary often suggests otherwise.

  21. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1: Which is of course because he knows when to drive the net and when to safely retain possession while waiting for extra attackers. Gretzky peeled off all the time.

    Can someone get a camera on some of these guys during a game sometime? I’d really like to know if they actually watch the play anymore. The post-game commentary often suggests otherwise.

    The galling thing about Hemsky is that the ongoing commentary is ALL FALSE!!! He’s not timid, he’s not selfish, he’s not a bad teammate. It seems to me that all of this is based on 83′s relationship with the media and availability, plus (and this is the big one) he’s been too long at the fair on a losing team. Extremely rare for a guy to play on a shitty team this long, we’re beyond Ralph Kiner territory now.

  22. Colonel Obvious says:

    If reasonable means 50% projection in which half the time the player would do better and half the time the player would do worse than these are pretty optimistic.

    Hall’s projection is high, that’s near his ceiling not his midpoint and requires a significant increase in goal scoring.

    Nugent-Hopkins’ projection is scarcely credible. That’s a career year, minus the injury part, and his track record is nowhere near as good as Hall’s.

    Schultz is also high. 13 goals for a Dman is a very good season. He could do it but it isn’t reasonable to expect it.

    Those three projections are all wishcasting and have none of the reasonableness of the Eberle, Gagner, and Perron projections.

    To be reasonable half the people should take the over and half should take the under. In this case every single person should take the under on Hall and RNH.

  23. DeadmanWaking says:

    Record book punctuation marks:

    Pete Rose (*)
    Lance Armstrong (⁂)
    Roger Maris ‟(*)”
    ‟2012”–2013 NHL season

    And just for good measure, the Doubting Thomas: ‟†” (It’s especially bad news to see that mark on the upturned lid of Dracula’s ‘permanent’ resting place.)

    People with young eyes will see I’ve used the so-called ‟frozen embrace” air quotes. (Normally frozen, anyway. I’m sure there’s some cheesy forum out there where they actually animate the split-fingered vasectomy claws to bob-bob obnoxiously every three seconds until the fat yellow man buckles over and goes into a crying jag while pounding the dirt in abject desperation.)

    Note: If you lack the anatomically-enhanced font to admire Armstrong’s triple croquembouche look up “dinkus”. The dinkus replaces an asterism when you haven’t got one.

    ***

    Still here? Today’s bonus is a small quiz. Place an “X” beside all correct statements below:

    [_] There really is punctuation mark called a ‘dinkus’.

    [_] Some doofus–in between photocopying his genitals–managed to add a series of code points to the Unicode standard which includes a palette of smiling cats and an emoticon officially named FACE WITH NO GOOD GESTURE.

    [_] Like, yeah. There is too. So there.

    ***

    Too bad they didn’t name that character LOUSY SELF-PORTRAIT TAKEN WITH ONE HAND.

  24. Jonathan Willis says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Across the Pacific, according to Wikipedia, never even sees the Pacific, which makes it oddly appropriate for the NHL’s new Pacific Division. Spy movie, Bogart, apt title; looks like the fit to me.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Deadman Waking: Incredibly, you have topped yourself. THAT was brilliant.

  26. DeadmanWaking says:

    I just had a vague recollection that Bruce once put the bat wings on 2012 over at cult-4. I mean, how could he not? We both finds ways to litter our prose with aspersions. “2012-2013 season” always screams out for abuse like the ‘groom’ who forgets the wedding band.

    guma: man, human being, hero

    Bridegroom: Man who will soon be married.

    Bride‟groom”: Not for long, if ever.

  27. DeadmanWaking says:

    Lowetide,

    Aww, thanks. And you didn’t even know it was my birthday :-)

  28. OilClog says:

    Lowetide:
    The thing about Hall is there are so many good arrows:

    1. #1 overalls go super nova around this period, we saw evidence of it in the short season.
    2. Taylor Hall ranked 67th overall among NHL forwards in TOI per game while finishing 9th in scoring
    3. The new coach has spoken at length about riding his players in search of wins.

    Taylor Hall and his linemates aren’t going to get the ‘Krueger 4line rotation’ they just aren’t, and in fact I’d expect Hall’s TOI to be closer to top 10 overall.

    This! If Eakins can come in and give Hall that final little push to get over the top.. all bets are off. This could finally be the season! we’re a hockey team again :)

  29. DeadmanWaking says:

    Honestly, my best moment at the keyboard lately was when the only thing slowing me down was pulling up short to decide how to best slip the helpful hyphen into “a charitable wet latex clad blubber bus wielding a foam finger”. I once endorsed the War Against Cliche with the tag line “Sign me up!” For a while afterwards Bruce’s prose had a striking affectation. I was pleased, whether I planted that seed or not.

    You know you’ve finally wrangled cliche into a submission hold of no remorse when a sentence later out comes “Danny’s Partridge Family Nordic Tour Bombardier H1.” So much puberty, so few words. He might not know it yet, but he’s dreaming about Agnetha. That’s what Danny and Reuben had in common. Danny wanted Agnetha for her fame and fortune, and Reuben wanted her for love. She’s a bit older than Danny, but then he always batted above his age. Reuben dreams of having ten children with Agnetha, none of them with red hair.

    Agnetha Fältskog Highest-Paid Singer in the World.

    This is recent! I had no idea. How does Danny pick ‘em?

    That post was a mousetrap moment for me. Vonnegut once said that each and every short chapter in Cat’s Cradle was a mousetrap that had to go snack at just the right moment. I sort of knew what he meant, but it had never happened to me in exactly that way until I managed to make “keel” sound like “kill” spoken with a bad Mexican accent at just the right beat to land the entire Smid/Smeed conceit.

    I was also pleased a day later with “knee high Narcisse”. How many people instantly recognized that Narcisse was a reference to the Manitoba Narcisse Snake Dens? It works on the other level, anyway.

    I feel bad sometimes that I’m not more social in these parts, on a certain level. I tamp my pipe hard, it erupts, then I roll over and rarely return phone calls. There really is something similar in the intensity of the neurological activation. My little Mor Against Cliche involves becoming extremely porous to language. I told my squeeze the other day that I really only have one resource, so in a sense it’s always the same joke. I forge love notes to false cognates and find ways to steer phrases into awkward trysts.

    When I first started letting this part of myself go–in these very precincts–I often felt more under the bus than on the bus. Often I had no idea whether I was coming or going. I remember a time when I was riffing on hyphenated names and I found a list of hyphenated names from real life that were pretty comical. Hospitals sometimes use doctor codes, where “paging Dr Firestone to the embalming fluid supply cabinet” is five bells for everyone handy to a hose or a canister . My inspiration in the moment was to turn one of the comical hyphenated names into a doctor code, writing [to paraphrase myself slightly]: “Paging Dr Wendt-Adaway to the courtesy phone beside the psych ward laundry chute.”

    That line still makes me laugh. He’s my all-time favorite shrink. And possibly my muse.

    Sometimes what I enjoy about the composition process is the inside inside jokes. How many people know that the symbol that looks like a cross is actually called a “dagger”? What is the vacated vampire disparaging, exactly? I’m not sure myself. The less I know, the sooner he stumbles into the wrong room.

  30. Lowetide says:

    ahahaaha. Many years ago, I mean 25 years ago, Reuben Kincaid starred in a pizza commercial. It was funny, this really cute redheaded girl was saying “save five bucks five bucks five bucks” and Reuben was saying “well then we’ll pay 10 bucks” and the redhead said ‘then you get two pizza’s” and Reuben kept going and going.

    Anyway, I’m sitting in the living room watching the commercial, and I scream out “HOLY HELL REUBEN KINCAID!” and my wife strolls by with “he’s really aged”

    That’s when you know you married the right woman.

  31. theres oil in virginia says:

    Jonathan Willis:
    theres oil in virginia,

    Across the Pacific, according to Wikipedia, never even sees the Pacific, which makes it oddly appropriate for the NHL’s new Pacific Division.Spy movie, Bogart, apt title; looks like the fit to me.

    Plus, nobody’s seen it either! (Apparently at least – unless Rom pops in and gives us the rundown. And if he’s not seen it, I’m going to proclaim that nobody has.)

  32. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia: Across the Pacific?It’s apparently an old Bogart flick. Maybe Rom or Spoiler have seen it.

    Reunion of the Maltese Falcon cast and director… and another attempt at developing the physics of noir. A weaker flick than Falcon though and wielded little influence over noirish notions.

    I would be happy with that nickname, or Union Pacific, but my favorite movie with Pacific in the title is Hell in the Pacific with Lee Marvin and Kurosawa favourite Toshiro Mifune.

  33. Lowetide says:

    If it was the Maltese division that would be very cool. I’ll call Gary.

  34. Ice Sage says:

    spoiler: Reunion of the Maltese Falcon cast and director… and another attempt at developing the physics of noir. A weaker flick than Falcon though and wielded little influence over noirish notions.I would be happy with that nickname, or Union Pacific, but my favorite movie with Pacific in the title is Hell in the Pacific with Lee Marvin and Kurosawa favourite Toshiro Mifune.

    Lee Marvin FTW

  35. spoiler says:

    DeadmanWaking: Still here? Today’s bonus is a small quiz. Place an “X” beside all correct statements below:
    [_] There really is punctuation mark called a ‘dinkus’.
    [_] Some doofus–in between photocopying his genitals–managed to add a series of code points to the Unicode standard which includes a palette of smiling cats and an emoticon officially named FACE WITH NO GOOD GESTURE.
    [_] Like, yeah. There is too. So there.
    ***
    Too bad they didn’t name that character LOUSY SELF-PORTRAIT TAKEN WITH ONE HAND.

    I’m going off memory more faded than a 1970s jean jacket here, but didn’t Bogie refer to the Maltese Falcon as “a dinkus” a few times during that movie? Or was that dingus?

  36. VanOil says:

    I am unsure if I should be giddy with excitement over reasonable expectations of an actual competitive hockey team in August or just happy with the journey that got us here.

    As for today’s diversion the Deadman is on fire. Call the appropriate Doctor. I stumbled and turned not on the Lexicon or Noir, but on an old blond singer of some repute.

    In catching up with her modern offerings I lost focus and leapt to a beautiful young Scottish songstress covering the Boss while being backed by a German symphony conducted by a man wearing an camouflage tuxedo. It has made my evening.

    Any wishing to complete this “August Hockey Fan” voyage themselves here is the inexplicably little known in Canada Amy MacDonald covering Dancing in the Dark

    http://youtu.be/xQGmyOgnXsQ

  37. Suntory Hanzo says:

    Lowetide,

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUMf7A0I1ms

    This? Might be American version as it is 4 bucks… I remember it well.

  38. Downright Fierce says:

    I vote South Pacific strictly for the Mitzi Gaynor pictures.

  39. theres oil in virginia says:

    I got interested in looking at the past North By Northwest blog posts, just to see if there was a clue about which movie might fit best for upcoming projections. I didn’t really get much of a clue regarding that (except maybe that the new movie needs a cool still-frame like the one with Jimmy Stewart being accosted by the bi-plane), but I think I got a clue about what’s driving the “end-of-the-world” pessimism in OilCountry these days. The NBNW post for 2008-09 is mildly optimistic, and that’s the season that the Oilers tanked with 10 games to go and no reason they couldn’t make the playoffs. Then Quinn comes along and the 2009-10 projections are more along the lines of “they might make the second season, but I worry that they might finish as low as 10th”. And we all know how that turned out.

    Maybe it’s the old saying: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

    I’m hoping for a return of some of the old Oilers-August-optimism. Damn the old sayings.

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