FIRE POWER

Later today, the first GDT hits this blog, and really it’s been since September of 2011 since we’ve had this pace. The long season is just ahead, but there is much work to be done in the next couple of weeks, and those moves–they’re small really, we know the heart of the roster–will keep us interested in the town team in a major way. I thought it might be interesting to review what the “reasonable expectations” series suggested back in August.

THE LINES

  • L1: RNH (62, 21-42-63); Hall (70, 37-45-82); Eberle (78, 28-37-65) (86 goals for 1line)
  • L2: Gagner (82, 15-37-52); Perron (69, 20-24-44); Yakupov (82, 29-23-52) (64 goals for 2line)
  • L3: Gordon (78, 5-15-20);  Smyth (72, 12-16-28); Hemsky (66, 11-25-36) (28 goals for 3line)
  • L4: Lander (50, 4-8-12); Joensuu (51, 7-7-14); Jones (73, 9-10-19) (20 goals for 4line)

I have projected the top 12 forwards in 13-14 to score 198 goals, but the key area of growth is the 1line above. Here, let’s filter this through last season’s numbers:

  • L1: 36 goals in 48 games in 12-13 (.75); 86 goals in 13-14 (1.05) an estimated increase of 24 goals (Nuge-Hall-Eberle last year)
  • L2: 32 goals in 48 games in 12-13 (.67); 64 goals in 13-14 (.78) an estimated increase of 9 goals (Gagner-Paajarvi-Hemsky last year)
  • L3: 26 goals in 48 games in 12-13 (.54); 28 goals in 13-14 (.341) an estimated decrease of  16 goals (Horcoff-Yakupov-Jones last year)
  • L4: 6 goals in 48 games in 12-13 (.13); 20 goals in 13-14 (.24) an estimated increase of 9 goals (Smyth-Petrell-Brown last year)

There’s a little wobble in there, I used Yakupov as 3line because of his Horcoff time but could have elevated him to the 2line. Either way, I think it shows that the top line (healthy Nuge, they’re all a year older) is going to push things in a big way during the 13-14 season. It’s also interesting to see the importance of Yakupov already in this lineup. He’s a beauty.

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28 Responses to "FIRE POWER"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    Just wanted to be the first one to post.

  2. thejonrmcleod says:

    Do you think Eakins will spread out his top-6 offensive players (Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yakupov, Perron, and Ganger) over three lines using duos, or will these six make up the top-2 lines? I’m intrigued by the thought of 3 duos on the top-3 lines. Something like…

    Hall-Yak
    RNH-Eberle
    Perron-Gagner

  3. hunter1909 says:

    For this jaded dynasty 20 years since Oilers were any good being generous by Pat Quinn to me:

    Funny/sad how much venom against Quinn’s TRUE remarks that diss KLowe and his band of loosers.

    Just think: Loose is already replacing lose as a word, ffs. The loose tsunami of ignorance steamrolls all.

    Lowetide: I agree: It’s all about Yakupov.

  4. mumbai max says:

    I am convinced Omark has a big offensive impact this year. One way or the other I think he makes the lineup early and often. If you add him and Hemsky to the top 9 it is quite the arsenal.

  5. mumbai max says:

    hunter1909:
    For this jaded dynasty 20 years since Oilers were any good being generous by Pat Quinn to me:

    Funny/sad how much venom against Quinn’s TRUE remarks that diss KLowe and his band of loosers.

    Just think: Loose is already replacing lose as a word, ffs. The loose tsunami of ignorance steamrolls all.

    Lowetide: I agree: It’s all about Yakupov.

    Huh?

  6. hunter1909 says:

    Given the fact that players get injured, RNH/Klefbom(who really starts to look like a Lynchinsian type after all) etc, plus Hall who’s basically going to end up going Cam Neely whether people fret about it or not:

    It’s finally nice to see a team with enough good players that a few missing won’t make any quantitative difference viz playoffs.

  7. hunter1909 says:

    mumbai max,

    I know.

  8. Clarkenstein says:

    A few pretty good players in there, yes. Quite the Arsenal? No.

  9. Lowetide says:

    I think 5-20 goal scorers is pretty damn good. Last Oiler team to do it? 02-03.

  10. thejonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    Why do you hate Gagner?

  11. Nightman_ says:

    What’s Perron’s ceiling? As a non-blues fan for some reason remember him not totally reaching his potential. I still would be very happy with 44-50.

    WG,

    Eager and Brown on the 3rw and 4lw, I almost died.

  12. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    Why do you hate Gagner?

    I’m a Gagner believer, and if you’re asking me if I think he’ll pass that the answer is yes. However, reasonable expectations suggest he’ll post a 50 point season.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Nightman: Good question, hard to say. We’ll know more a year from now.

  14. Nightman_ says:

    Lowetide,

    With all estimates reserved for your next series, unreasonable –secretly our actual– expectations vol. 1

  15. Truth Movement says:

    hunter1909:
    For this jaded dynasty 20 years since Oilers were any good being generous by Pat Quinn to me:

    Funny/sad how much venom against Quinn’s TRUE remarks that diss KLowe and his band of loosers.

    Just think: Loose is already replacing lose as a word, ffs. The loose tsunami of ignorance steamrolls all.

    Lowetide: I agree: It’s all about Yakupov.

    Is this one of those spam things where it looks like english, but when you actually read it it’s pure gibberish?

  16. Nightman_ says:

    Truth Movement: Is this one of those spam things where it looks like english, but when you actually read it it’s pure gibberish?

    I think those are called “NewAgeSys”

  17. hunter1909 says:

    Truth Movement,

    Excellent comment.

    What in fact you might be looking at, is the future of the English language.

    Where many of today’s grammar rules have been set aside for…this.

  18. hunter1909 says:

    Re Yaks NOT taking number ten:

    What gives? Horcoff leaves some kind of greasy carbon-style footprint behind, even as he takes the country club off to Dallas?

    I’m starting up a Yaks! Please take number ten!

    …campaign. It’s almost as if, until he wears it, Horcoff’s losing ways are going to plague the Oilers or something.

    Who wants that? Aside from 29 teams in the NHL, plus their ignorant, stupid fans?

  19. Hammers says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Do you think Eakins will spread out his top-6 offensive players (Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yakupov, Perron, and Ganger) over three lines using duos, or will these six make up the top-2 lines? I’m intrigued by the thought of 3 duos on the top-3 lines. Something like…

    Hall-Yak
    RNH-Eberle
    Perron-Gagner

    How about Gags & Yak /RNH & Perron /Hall & Eberle OR Perron & Hemsky/ Omark & Hall / RNH & Yak / Gags & Ebs . Boy you could have fun with this ??? Smyth & Jones / Gordon & Joensuu . Oh well I guess Eakins will have his combos .

  20. commonfan14 says:

    Meh – they should retire 10 for Tik anyway. If only for the speech.

  21. justDOit says:

    hunter1909:
    Re Yaks NOT taking number ten:

    What gives? Horcoff leaves some kind of greasy carbon-style footprint behind, even as he takes the country club off to Dallas?

    I think of it more as a ‘scorched number’ strategy. Nobody wants it on their back now.

  22. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    hunter1909: What gives? Horcoff leaves some kind of greasy carbon-style footprint behind, even as he takes the country club off to Dallas?

    Smart kid out figured out the veteran worship thingee and knows how to mix up doing his own thing with paying the easy homages. He makes it easy for team mates and fans to see that he has heart and can channel it any which way.

    If Omark makes the team I want to see Yakupov, Hemsky, and Omark go on a shoot-out rampage that will make the stuffed shirts weep.

  23. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    justDOit: I think of it more as a ‘scorched number’ strategy. Nobody wants it on their back now.

    Or maybe you only wear #10 when you get Horcoff dollars and term starting 2015-16?

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Any word on Klefbom as an update?

    And did you guys read this on Larsen from Bruce:

    “Philip Larsen impressed the heck out of me with one extended sequence where he won a succession of board battles to gain possession of the puck inside his own line, stickhandled in a phone booth to hang on to the puck, then as the lane opened up calmly delivered a crisp tape-to-tape pass to a breaking winger. Another time caught my eye in a less positive way when he skated himself into a corner. Still, had obvious skating and puck skills that are surely the foundation of his game.”

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/09/13/nail-yakupov-and-linus-omark-put-on-a-show-in-split-squad-scrimmage-then-again-in-shoot-out-edmonton-oilers/

    That’s the first real comments I’ve read about him since becoming an Oiler (sorta). I’m intrigued.

  25. OilClog says:

    Perron, before that injury, he was scary good. If this situation gets him back to that.. The fire power is going to be a difficult task for any team to go up against. If Eakins systems really do develop puck possession for this squad, I think this team is going to resemble what the Eagles opened their season with, I can’t remember being this damn excited for the oilers to get going since I was knee high to a grass hopper.. I really don’t know how you 40yr old+ crowd of Oiler fans have been holding it together, Bravo, I hope the YakCity causes this fan base to get ridiculous again. Release the Hyena’s!

  26. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Any word on Klefbom as an update?…

    Stauffer twittered that Klefbom skated this morning with the black aces for tonight.

    And yes, I was left with excess saliva to deal with after reading about Larsen.

  27. Oiler_Kiwi says:

    Can I ask a favour please Lowetide?

    I know it isn’t the play offs but a picture of Stan Weir for the GDT would be great.

  28. BlacqueJacque says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Larsen looked really good at camp.

    I think him and Abney got the short shrift when it came to picking people for scrimmage.

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