LINES AND SIGNS AND ROCKFORD

The Edmonton Oilers have help on the way soon (Nuuuuge!) but there’s a game tomorrow and another Monday to prepare for and very little available in terms of addition now. That means small tweaks in the lineup, and coach Dallas Eakins remains a little stubborn on the 1line.

Azorcan3

LINES YESTERDAY

  1. Hall-Smyth-Hemsky: I can see why he’s stubborn in keeping the two veterans, Hall-Hemsky is wildly exciting and Smyth has been doing the board work forever. Which is kind of the problem here, but one would guess that 94 will be moving down the depth chart when RNH returns. 
  2. Gordon-Joensuu-Eberle: Interesting new line, Gordon displayed some real offensive ability in G1 and Joensuu was a terror, so this could be a nice trio. I thought Eberle was dangerous in game one, expect he’ll have an impact Saturday.
  3. Arcobello-Perron-Yakupov: I’m interested in seeing this line because Yakupov (by eye and by Corsi) rolled over Winnipeg in the first period then didn’t see much ice in the second period Tuesday night. I think (think, don’t know) Eakins might have been using the 2nd as a learning tool but there were penalties aplenty too. Either way, nice to see the Russian playing with skill.
  4. Acton-Gazdic-Brown: Eakins liked this line in G1, no reason (and no one) to draw in another player. It is interesting that the PK is going to happen from farther up the food chain.

rockford

There has been plenty of venom spewed toward Devan Dubnyk on this blog and other internet spots, but I’m still wondering why. Let me ask you something: is it better to use a body of work over several years to predict the future, or one game? I love the passion of the Oiler fanbase, but in regard to Dubnyk there’s a massive disconnect. He is NOT the second coming of Dom Hasek, but he’s also clearly the best option available and he is not the problem. Have a look at what happens to the Trouba shot:

trouba

 

I’m not sure if it’s the bounce on the puck or the Petry deflection or both, but that was one magic puck. I’m hopeful coach Eakins throws Dubnyk right back in there, the history on the guy is pretty damn good and the Oilers can’t afford to lose their starting goalie after game one.

 BARONS READY!

The Rockford Files image James Garner

Oklahoma City Barons begin their season tonight, and the lineup has plenty of NHL experience and several legit prospects. Based on the lines at practice yesterday I think there will be plenty of chances for prospects.

  • Lander-Omark-Nesbitt
  • Martindale-R Hamilton-Ford
  • Stretch-R Jones-Pitlick
  • Ewanyk-Kessy-Lizon
  • Marincin-Fedun
  • Davidson-Larsen
  • Musil-Gernat
  • Hunt-Leach
  • Bachman-Roy

Oscar Klefbom is skating again and will be playing in no time (unless the zamboni hits him).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

rockford2

 

10 this morning on TSN 1260, scheduled to appear.

  • Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports. We’ll talk about the television coverage of the George Parros incident and the early season results in Edmonton and Toronto. 
  • Rob Soria from Oil Drop. We’ll talk Hall at center, Dubnyk and the powerplay.
  • Andreas Morse from FC Edmonton. Eddies need a win badly, they’ll be a motivated crew on Sunday at Clark.
  • Jungle Jim Hunter will talk about the Nuge, injury recovery and the Olympics.

10-1260 via text and @Lowetide_ on twitter. Hope you can tune in!

 

The Rockford Files was my favorite show when I was a kid. Loved it, my favorite episode was (I believe) a two parter featuring Isaac Hayes calling Jim “Rockfish” and my friend Terry Cole and I laughed about that episode for years. I don’t know why I remembered it today, but it was a nice flashback.

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178 Responses to "LINES AND SIGNS AND ROCKFORD"

  1. Ben says:

    If Perron gets 20 and Uncle Yesse maintains anything near that level of play, that’s huge for the pro scouts.

  2. theres oil in virginia says:

    Nice graphic on the Dubnyk goal. It takes the edge off for that one. Dubnyk did not look comfortable all night and was struggling. However, one bad game does not equal one bad goalie. Eakins can’t be silly enough to pull him after that game.

    Eakins keeping Smyth on that line vindicates my eye on Tuesday’s game. Smyth was good outside of a stretch late in the second period.

  3. supernova says:

    R.A Dickey would be proud of that Knuckler.

  4. mumbai max says:

    I would imagine Smyth is on a short leash. I hope he proves everyone wrong and scores 3, but i think 3 will more likely be his line number by nights end.

  5. mumbai max says:

    I wish the Canuckleheads had won their opener.

  6. goldenchild says:

    LT everyone seems convinced that when Nuge gets back we will once again see 4-93-14 and while I have no doubt Eakins may go that if things go the wrong way I also think everything he has talked about and shown so far indicates he would like to have the offense balanced on 3 lines and he would rather use pairs than 3′s.

    14 seemed to have some nice chemestry with Gagner I think he sees them as the soft minute pair. Gordon and Yak have been paired together so far and while I think we would all like to see Yak play one of the wunderkids it feels like Eakins thinks 5-5 Yak is capable of creating offense in a singular manner that it doesnt really matter who he plays with and Gordon gives Yak some safety on the defensive side allowing him to maybe frelance a bit. Perron and Joensuu probably move around all year, but to start the Big Finn could give 89-14 pair some size and strength.

    Hall is the chosen one against the toughs, no doubt MacT and Eakins have discussed 83′s ability to play against the best, I think we see them paired together for as long as it works.

    When both 93-89 come back I think it opens

    4 – 93 – 83
    6 – 89 -14
    57 – 27 -6
    94 – 41 – Face Puncher

    In the off season I thought a 3rd line of 57- 27 – 83 would be a nice fit, that may be an option later in year too. Beauty of the forward depth when healthy is so many combos look good on paper.

  7. Logan91 says:

    You have to think that Eakins is keeping Smyth on the first line to kind of teach him a lesson at this point.

    Smitty says how he has a lot left in the tank and can still compete, maybe Eakins is letting him figure out for himself that he’s not able to keep up anymore.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Isaac Hayes calling Jim “Rockfish””

    Can’t find a clip of him saying that… crap. but i did find this:

    http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xp79jw_the-rockford-files_shortfilms

    Warwick and Hayes! Good second pairing.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Unless they bring Omark up to push Smyth down and one of the goons out, I think the LW chart should go like this until RNH is back

    Joensuu
    Perron
    Smyth
    Gazdic

    And, even when RNH and Gags come back and even if Hall moves back to wing, I keep Hall with Hemsky as long as that pair keeps killing it.

    At the very least it would be a good showcase for a trade come the deadline.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On the Barons, does anyone know if that game will have a stream tonight?

    Also, I’d like to see Pitlick get more of a push.

    Finally, does anyone know if AHL rosters have a limit? I know they aren’t capped at 23… but is there a cap?

  11. Woodguy says:

    Gordon-Joensuu-Eberle: Interesting new line, Gordon displayed some real offensive ability in G1 and Joensuu was a terror, so this could be a nice trio. I thought Eberle was dangerous in game one, expect he’ll have an impact Saturday.

    I think moving 14 in and 64 out also bolsters the D play of this line.

    If they are going up against Kessler’s line they need the help. Kessler’s line dominated in SJS with a +15 corsi.

    Also,

    Lander-Omark-Nesbitt
    Martindale-R Hamilton-Ford
    Stretch-R Jones-Pitlick
    Ewanyk-Kessy-Lizon

    Not too happy that two AHL vets are playing ahead of Pitlick after he had a good main camp.

    I thought MacT was going to put pressure on Nelson to put the prospects in a better position?

    Playing the checking line with Stretch is pretty meh.

  12. bookje says:

    If Dubnyk stopped the one ‘soft goal’ each game that his critics say occurs, he would have the best save percentage in NHL history.

  13. theres oil in virginia says:

    Logan91,
    I don’t think Eakins is in the business of teaching his players lessons. I think he’s in the business of getting wins by putting his players in positions to succeed.

    Romulus Apotheosis,
    Last I saw any streaming option from the AHL, it was over $10 to watch a playoff game. There may be a package you can buy to watch regular season games, but I’d bet it’s way overpriced.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    For anyone interested, the Condors started their TC yesterday

    http://www.bakersfieldcalifornian.com/sports/condors/x196572556/Condors-to-start-training-camp-today

    and they’ve released their current roster:

    http://bakersfieldcondors.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/2013-14-Roster.pdf

    which will probably change a fair bit in the next week. Bunz and Abney are the only EDM prospects here, but with only 6 D on the roster and the OKC D depth chart stacked I’d look to see if they don’t take advantage of giving a guy like Hunt or Leach more ice time in a diluted pool (seemed to work with Davidson last year… though he outclassed the ECHL so fast the stint was very short).

    Note: they also have a pronunciation guide on their roster chart like in OKC.

    I’ll be very interested to see if the team is more willing to use the ECHL as a development tool this year. In years past it seems to have been a place to park doomed prospects (abney) and tender goaltenders (Bunz). the current roster reflects that… but last year (the lockout affected things too) it seemed the team was more willing to put players there to super-charge their game.

    With MacT’s talk about more direction for OKC, I wonder if that will trickle down and I wonder if the new ECHL team is part of a change in development philosophy (even minor) or just a business deal.

  15. TheGreatMutato says:

    That’s one fantastic gif. Until now, I was not aware that Russ Tyler had signed with the Jets.

  16. jb says:

    Does anyone else get an uneasy feeling on every shot against? I truly feel like every single shot has a chance to go in on Dubnyk. I just can’t shake the feeling for some reason. I want to believe.

  17. dessert1111 says:

    Rom,

    There are no limits on the ahl roster.

    As for pitlick playing third line, could be more a case of playing him in the role he’d see in the show. Jones is on that line too, should be some offense there.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ben:
    If Perron gets 20 and Uncle Yesse maintains anything near that level of play, that’s huge for the pro scouts.

    I’m not sure about the pro scouts in either case (though they probably played a part in both, though maybe not the dominant part).

    Joensuu best days and most recent best days were in Europe and it seems likely that Finn scout Matty V. saw him good over there.

    Perron got MacT talking about his “analytics guys” and how it would be a good test for them

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Corsi+stats+newest+Edmonton+Oilers+forward+David+Perron+positive+light/8654304/story.html

    On the day he traded Magnus Paajarvi for David Perron, Edmonton Oilers general manager Craig MacTavish noted that the acquisition of Perron had the blessing of the analytics experts who consult with the team.

    “Our analytics guys … they love this guy,” MacTavish told Oilers insider Bob Stauffer on Oilers Now. “He’s right up there in terms of controlling the play and shots for and against differential. So it will be a good test for our analytics guys. They have him with some of the game’s elite.”

  19. theres oil in virginia says:

    jb:
    Does anyone else get an uneasy feeling on every shot against? I truly feel like every single shot has a chance to go in on Dubnyk. I just can’t shake the feeling for some reason. I want to believe.

    I did in that game, but in general, no. The opposite, in fact. I’m surprised when he lets one in. He makes a lot of saves that he has no business making.

  20. Numenius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    On the Barons, does anyone know if that game will have a stream tonight?

    The game is listed on Hockey Streams. That means there may also be a free stream somewhere.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    dessert1111:
    Rom,

    There are no limits on the ahl roster.

    As for pitlick playing third line, could be more a case of playing him in the role he’d see in the show. Jones is on that line too, should be some offense there.

    Willis, over at ON last night, wrote this:

    “There’s a pretty good case that the Stretch line is the Barons’ second line. I’m going to be very interested to see how Nelson doles out the ice-time this weekend.”

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/10/3/barons-ready-to-roll#comments

    I think that is possible. I also think we could see a more equitable TOI share between lines 1 through 3… but my initial thought at looking at this roster is the same as WG’s above.

    This looks like Nelson’s old tricks. This is a roster structured to win, not to develop.

    The AHL is the place to put defensive prospects (Lander, Pitlick) in a position to score and see if they can develop that side of their game. I’m glad to see Lander on the 1st line… but Pitlick should be there too. I’d also consider putting Jones down in favor of seeing if Kessy can find the range.

  22. Rebilled says:

    Partial screen.

  23. Andropod says:

    jb,

    We judge Dubnyk on his body of work. Dub’s body of work is that he is capable of exceptional saves, he stops a high enough percentage of shots, but seems to let in soft shots at the worst times.

    I suppose we would prefer a goalie that stonewalls the softies. I feel like he is the one who will let in the soft shot that wins the Stanley against this team. Or more likely that puts us out of the playoffs earlier on.

  24. Woodguy says:

    dessert1111:
    Rom,

    There are no limits on the ahl roster.

    As for pitlick playing third line, could be more a case of playing him in the role he’d see in the show. Jones is on that line too, should be some offense there.

    Most AHL 3rd liners never make it to the NHL.

    He needs to play in the top 6 and he’s earned it.

    I don’t think that Nelson is long for the org if he keeps this up.

  25. Hammers says:

    Lets face it we as a group have lots of line combinations but the only guy who counts is Eakins . The main point I think is Arcobello . If he plays well enough these next 2 games Eakins can put Hall back on the wing and if not Hall will stay at center . Arco’s face off % is Ok as is his puck distribution . His shot maybe questioned . If the kid can make it now it may let Gags go on the wing ????

  26. Andropod says:

    Woodguy,

    I would think he’s pissed abut his new role which may not look as good on his resume as coaching to win, as opposed to coaching in support of his nemesis.

  27. Bar_Qu says:

    The hate for Dubnyk was on far before this season began. He is the new goat for the fans now that Horcoff has gone. Which makes sense considering how most Oilers fans have treated goalies in this organisation ever since Ranford left town.

    I don’t doubt for a moment that Dubnyk will post a save percentage above .920 again this season and am equally certain he will receive the lion share of the blame if this team fails to make the playoffs.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Andropod:
    Woodguy,

    I would think he’s terminally pissed abut his new role while will not look as good on his resume as coaching to win as opposed coaching to support his nemesis. So perhaps he is coaching for his resume which he may need sooner rather than later.

    Ahh… the old Art Howe routine: “I have to field a team that I can explain in job interviews next year”

  29. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Based on that GIF i’m not sure Petry deflects that. I thought so at first b/c its trajectory seems to alter as it passes the d man, but really I think it shows just how magical that puck was.

    Despite the possessed puck, a big goalie like Doobie should have the positioning to get in the way from that distance.

    Not worried about DD.

    More worried about Yak’s short leash and Smytty being off-leash.

  30. justDOit says:

    Maybe Rockford will have to go undercover for this one – keep a lookout for anyone giving out business cards with fresh ink on them, and the name Jimmy-Joe Meeker.

  31. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Woodguy: Most AHL 3rd liners never make it to the NHL.

    He needs to play in the top 6 and he’s earned it.

    I don’t think that Nelson is long for the org if he keeps this up.

    You need to bear in mind that the Oilers don’t actually own the Barons so they don’t control team philosophy regarding winning and development.

    That was one of the reasons that Vancouver purchased the team that became the Utica Comets and ended their affiliation with the Chicago Wolves which are also owned by local interests.

  32. Wolfie says:

    Two things with Dubnyk.

    1) That Trouba shot had a mind of it’s own. With that being said, if Dubnyk takes a step out of his crease, that puck doesn’t get by him.

    2) I’m amazed at the amount of net you see behind him when he goes down!

    I’m not a big fan of how goaltending is taught nowadays. Too much playing percentages and not enough reaction to a play.

  33. theres oil in virginia says:

    We don’t want OKC to win games?

  34. Genjutsu says:

    Woodguy,

    Nice to see Martindale with the big push though. Big men traditionally take more time so maybe this is his year.

    As for Tyler I don’t think they see him as much more than an 4th line energy guy that can maybe not killed in Corsi and play a physical game, he needs to learn the finer points of defence, but so does Jones :)

  35. Logan91 says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Getting wins by putting his players in a position to succeed? Like by pulling the goalie with 9 minutes left in a game?

  36. theres oil in virginia says:

    Wolfie,
    I heard that a couple of times about Dubnyk being too deep in net. Does that speak to his confidence, just a lack of focus, other?

  37. theres oil in virginia says:

    Logan91:
    theres oil in virginia,
    Getting wins by putting his players in a position to succeed? Like by pulling the goalie with 9 minutes left in a game?

    Well that would certainly teach them a lesson!
    :)
    Considering that Trouba goal was scored with 9 minutes left, I think maybe he should have tried that against Winnipeg. Maybe Dubnyk was distracted by thinking that Eakins was getting ready to pull him and lost focus on the puck.

    Seriously though, you don’t think Eakins is putting players in a position to succeed? Or at least trying to?

  38. Rebilled says:

    Bar_Qu,

    The hate for Dubnyk also stems from Oiler fans that expect them to go 82-0 with Nuge and Gags out.

    They lost a close one to the Jets. Everyone agrees: one goal games could go either way.

    The Giraffe beats the *ucks.

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “he was signing autographs at a… sports… store?”

  40. Brackenburied says:

    I practiced ‘Rockfords’ in my old Datsun 510 until the wheels fell off. Loved that show.

  41. Wolfie says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Wolfie,
    I heard that a couple of times about Dubnyk being too deep in net.Does that speak to his confidence, just a lack of focus, other?

    I’m 37 and I’ve played goal since I was 6. Goaltending has changed so much in 30 years!

    I’m about a foot shorter than Dubnyk so I always had to be more aggressive in challenging the shooter. Because of this I had to rely heavily on my defence to take away the pass.

    Goalies have gotten massive over the last decade. At 6’6″ tall Dubnyk doesn’t have to be as aggressive and he can still cover the same or more net than I do. The added bonus of being able to play deeper is the ability to take away the pass across. Lundqvist is the master at this! That guy barely leaves his goal line. Yet he still manages to cover most of the cage. He’s not as tall as Dubnyk but he looks thicker. Whether yhay’s how he wears his equipment or if he is bigger around is hard to say.

    Goalies are taught to stay deep now and rely on their size to cover both options. That’s why you don’t see any Grant Fuhr sized goalies anymore. I think the flaw in the way guys are taught is that they are still giving the shooter too much to look at. Scheifele’s goal was a good example, Dubnyk was on his post on the line. He wasn’t square and tto deep. If he slides 6″ to his left and a foot out that puck hits him in the shoulder.

    Now, I’m not certain what Chabot is preaching but I don’t think Dubnyk is aggressive enough in challenging the shooter. He doesn’t need to be as balls out as Tim Thomas but he could use a tad more aggressiveness. This is not the first time. I’m reminded of the Jagr OT goal last year that beat him short side. He’s right on his line on the post. He fails to come off his line as Jagr comes off the wall. Because his foot is on the post, when he drops to his knees it forces his body to the middle of the net. If he takes a little step forward, he doesn’t get pushed off his angle and makes an easy save.

    Just little adjustments and I think you would have a goalie that’s nearly impossible to beat.

  42. spoiler says:

    Yak had one of his worst games in an Oiler uniform I thought on Tuesday*. Looks like Gordon and Eberle and Joensuu are going to face the 2nd toughs to give Yak and Arco some easier minutes. Perron will ride shotgun and babysit the two lesser experienced players. Interesting moves by Eakins.

    *(but y’know ONE PERIOD of Corsi said differently… baffling)

  43. bookje says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: You need to bear in mind that the Oilers don’t actually own the Barons so they don’t control team philosophy regarding winning and development.

    That was one of the reasons that Vancouver purchased the team that became the Utica Comets and ended their affiliation with the Chicago Wolves which are also owned by local interests.

    I think the details of each affiliate agreement differs and I don’t know the details of the Oilers and Prodigal Hockey agreement. I do know that the Oilers pay the Barons a fee (which allows them to exist with ~3000 fans) and that Prodigal Hockey would have a lot to lose if the Oilers decided to leave them (which they can do at any point due to a minimum attendance clause which the Barons have broken).

    Do the Oilers still own the placeholder for the Roadrunners?

    Given that the attendance in Stockton is double that of OKC, I wonder if we might see a flip of the affiliates?

  44. Logan91 says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    I do, and I don’t. He is giving Smitty the chance to succeed (I do see that), but by doing that I think it’s hurting the teams chances as whole to succeed.

    I know they’re only one game in and Eakins wants to balance out the lines, but Smyth just isn’t able to keep up with the plays (keep in mind during the pre season Smitty played slower, lesser competition). They want a player on that first line that works hard along the boards and is still fast enough to keep up with the play? Joennsu has more than proved he’s capable for the job.

  45. theres oil in virginia says:

    Logan91:

    Smyth just isn’t able to keep up with the plays

    I’m not trying to be argumentative, but I didn’t see that during Tuesday’s game (except for the Smyth meltdown late in the 2nd period). I saw Smyth involved in most of the up-ice rushes, involved in puck cycling, not late into either zone. I don’t think there’s any way he stays on the top line all year (I hope not), but I think it’s working pretty well for the time being, until RNH and Gagner come back.

    I like Joensuu, but I also like him on the ice with Eberle. He’s like a bodyguard. Maybe we’ll get to see RNH with Eberle and Joensuu.

  46. theres oil in virginia says:

    Wolfie: Just little adjustments and I think you would have a goalie that’s nearly impossible to beat.

    It’s not too late. He’s still pretty young.

  47. russ99 says:

    Looks like the center problem extends to OKC as well.

    As for Dubnyk, I think people quickly forget a solid history of good numbers (particularly on weak defensive teams) every game he lets in a softie, and when he lets in a few softies, they forget about it completely.

    He needs a string of solid games to get the fans back on track.

    I do have concerns that the net/crease/equipment changes have taken him out of his comfort zone, and it may be a while before he gets it back.

    I really like the new lines, other than the Smyth thing, of course – but that will resolve itself based on Smytty’s play.

    Also, Arcobello-Eberle looked a bit too weak outside the O-zone, and it’s good that Yak has Perron on his line so he has at least one linemate that can keep up with him.

  48. bookje says:

    “Dubnyk seems to let in one easy shot at a bad time each game”

    “If you hold a quarter up to the sun at mid day, the quarter and the sun seem to be the same size”

    “Hospital wards seem to be busier on nights with a full moon”

    Do you see the similarities?

    As opposed to believing what seems to be true, perhaps some critical thought is needed. Dubnyk is a big goalie. If you watch other big goalies (Luongo, Vokuon, Neimi, etc) you see similar goals getting by them. Smaller goalies that move around a lot more never seem to have the same kind of goals scored against them. Of course, they let in as many goals, but they never look quite so bad. Why? Because they move around a lot more. So, when they let in a goal, they usually look like they just missed it despite making some acrobatic move. When large goalies let in such goals, they usually look immobile and awkward.

    This is why save percentage matters. It counters your imperfect perceptions. It measures the proportion of shots that a goalie stops – which is the important thing.

    The other problem I have with the ‘bad goal’ argument is it goes like this. Dubnyk is a really good goalie who loses focus every so often and lets in one bad goal a game (on average). If we accept this, it means that a goalie with Dubnyk’s skill, but without the focus problem would let in one less goal per game. This would make Dubnyk one of the best goalies in NHL history. So, we would need to accept that Dubnyk is the most talented goalie who ever played the game, but he has a focus problem.

    The alternative explanation is much easier to believe. Dubnyk has NHL level talent and is fairly consistent in the quality of goals that he lets in and the quality of saves he makes. However, due to his size and style, some of those LOOK like they are soft goals.

    Occam’s razor suggests that latter explanation is most likely.

  49. borisnikov says:

    I watched the trouba goal several times on that replay and came to the exact conclusion that some on here did. Magic puck but dub was showing way to much net. This wasn’t the only point in the game when I thought he was playing to deep in his net. The screen goal from the half wall in the first was much the same. Take a step off the goal line and he may have got a piece of it. He’ll get it sorted out.

  50. Truth says:

    No way Dubnyk should even have to move on the shot to make the save. He should have had all of the net covered by coming out of his crease more. No danger at that point for a cross ice pass to leave an empty net for the recipient of a pass. It’s funny, because that’s what Dubnyk did on the first goal of the night Scheifle (sp?) made a perfect shot and Dubnyk figured he had the whole net blocked. The pbp guys covered his ass with the *deflection* talk.

    Dubnyk’s weird in that he allows such soft goals but plays extremely well in otherwise I think it would be less deflating to the team if he averaged it out. Players hate to see those easy goals go in. Total momentum killer. If he can figure it out and eliminate the soft goals he will be a legitimate top 10 starter.

    I think Smyth is just keeping Hall’s spot warm. Hall is an excellent player no matter where he lines up, but a line of Hall -RNH – Hemsky would be deadly. It will be an interesting decision where Smyth goes with the play of Joensuu.

    My Guess:

    Hall – RNH – Hemsky
    Perron – Gordon – Eberle
    Smyth/Joensuu – Arco – Yakupov
    Smyth/Joensuu – Acton – Gadzic

    I hope Smyth goes to the 4th line. Keep him rested, use him in front on the PP.

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    The thing with Dubnyk is he’s a ‘good’ goaltender but you typically need an exceptional one to win the Cup.

    The Oilers have stocked the cupboards with blue chips prospects at every position save the most important one now, and that could come back to bite them on the ass.

    If you really Dubnyk think is a top ten tender, consider his performance when the game is on the line and a win is up for grabs. Last season’s sv pct in the shootout (.500 good for 32nd overall).

    In terms of being considered an elite goaltender, the other acid test for me is how often does this goaltender almost singlehandedly win the game for his team? Goalies like Quick, Craig Anderson, Bobrovsky and Lundquvist actually did this fairly frequently last season and the great ones do every year. Granted, Dubnyk plays on a poor team, but to my eye at least, he only rises above the sea of mediocrity around him on very rare occasions.

    And yes, the soft goals are killers for the team’s morale. Grant Fuhr let in his fair share of softies, It happens. But when the game was on the line, Cocoa shut the door. You simply can’t say the same thing about Dubie. Nothing about him says dominance.

  52. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje: “Dubnyk seems to let in one easy shot at a bad time each game”
    “If you hold a quarter up to the sun at mid day, the quarter and the sun seem to be the same size”
    “Hospital wards seem to be busier on nights with a full moon”
    Do you see the similarities?

    So, you’re saying things are always exactly as they appear? Hehe.

    bookje:

    This is why save percentage matters.

    .821 = Yuck. I hope he steals the game against Vancouver. I get the feeling that’s what it will take.

  53. Logan91 says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    There’s so many different options for this team when it comes to line combinations, its crazy.

  54. bookje says:

    theres oil in virginia:

    .821 = Yuck.I hope he steals the game against Vancouver.I get the feeling that’s what it will take.

    Yep, he had a terrible game last game. With that said, he could have played great and still have an 0.821 save percentage. Due to variance, save percentage is really only of use over a larger sample of games.

  55. theres oil in virginia says:

    Logan91:
    theres oil in virginia,
    There’s so many different options for this team when it comes to line combinations, its crazy.

    No joke. It’s like a new world. Playoffs or not, this year feels different. Get healthy boys!

    I saw Smyth good, other saw him bad, but either way, I don’t think he’s 4th line bound unless it’s as center. Looks like Eakins wants to have two bangers around a hockey playing center.

  56. Truth says:

    bookje,

    I disagree. Since Dubnyk was in Junior he was known for allowing a soft goal a game. He obviously has the tools (skill, size), I just think he momentarily loses focus. I equate it to watching a player such as Phaneuf as a defenseman. Most times he’s good, then you watch a play and say “what the hell was he thinking”. Of course, not everyone is at 100% all the time, but it seems Dubnyk goes from 100% to 10% to 100% in a matter of moments.

  57. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje: Yep, he had a terrible game last game.With that said, he could have played great and still have an 0.821save percentage.Due to variance, save percentage is really only of use over a larger sample of games.

    Careful, there are snipers in these woods. You may get fired upon from multiple angles for this one!

  58. bookje says:

    I would also add that ‘soft goals’ are something you see when you are a fan of a team (and have an emotional investment) as opposed to an objective observer.

    Just for fun, Google the phrase “Soft Goals” and the name of any goalie in the NHL you think is a solid goalie who does not have a habit of letting in soft goals. You will find that every goalie has a horde of fans who think they let in soft goals (except in places like Florida where there are no fans).

  59. bookje says:

    Truth:
    bookje,

    I disagree.Since Dubnyk was in Junior he was known for allowing a soft goal a game.He obviously has the tools (skill, size), I just think he momentarily loses focus.I equate it to watching aplayer such as Phaneuf as a defenseman.Most times he’s good, then you watch a play and say “what the hell was he thinking”.Of course, not everyone is at 100% all the time, but it seems Dubnyk goes from 100% to 10% to 100% in a matter of moments.

    So, ever since junior, emotional fans have been perceiving that Dubnyk lets in one soft goal a game.

    How does this counter the notion that sometimes fan perception is not necessarily accurate and that Dubnyk’s style may be a part of that perception?

  60. Colonel Obvious says:

    Truth:
    bookje,

    I disagree.Since Dubnyk was in Junior he was known for allowing a soft goal a game.He obviously has the tools (skill, size), I just think he momentarily loses focus.I equate it to watching aplayer such as Phaneuf as a defenseman.Most times he’s good, then you watch a play and say “what the hell was he thinking”.Of course, not everyone is at 100% all the time, but it seems Dubnyk goes from 100% to 10% to 100% in a matter of moments.

    His reputation is irrelevant. Bookje is right on this one. The only thing that matters is the save percentage because it balances the “soft” goals against the “great” saves perfectly. Everything else is just post facto storytelling.

  61. Wolfie says:

    I think Dubnyk is in fact a very good goalie. I do think that there are a couple of minor tweaks he could make that would put him in the conversation for best goalies in the league. He has all the tools but he just needs to be a touch more aggressive. For me it seems like sometimes he loses focus but the biggest thing would be a little change in programming.

  62. tubes says:

    Most goalies that I’ve talked to (albeit I’ve never played pro, just div1 mens league) say that “muffins” or knucklepucks are the hardest to stop. A good friend, who has one of the weakest shots you’ve ever seen, regularly scores because the puck literally dives right before it hits the goalie. He specializes in the muffin.

    With that said, professional goalies or not, when you expect a shot to come in at a certain speed and hit you in a specific spot, how can you not have an extremely difficult time reacting to a sudden movement, usually at the last second?

    That Trouba goal wasn’t the only muffin that Dubnyk let in that night. I don’t have time to re-watch all of them right now, but if memory serves me correctly, the Scheifele goal was either deflected or knuckled a bit, as did another.

    As much as we want to blame DD, his game wasn’t as bad as first thought IMO.

  63. Truth says:

    bookje,

    That may be a generalization reached by fans, but it was also known by scouts and other coaches in the WHL. Scouts and coaches that watch other goalies regularly with no affiliation to the team.

    I don’t know how it would be possible to actually measure the amount of soft goals let in, but I would like to see how many times in the past 3 years a CBC play by play or colour guy during a broadcast says Dubnyk “should have had that one” or “he sure would like that one back” compared to all other goalies of Canadian teams.

  64. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje: I would also add that ‘soft goals’ are something you see when you are a fan of a team (and have an emotional investment) as opposed to an objective observer.

    You’re not suggesting that there are no soft goals, are you?

  65. Colonel Obvious says:

    He’s saying whether a goal is “soft” or not is irrelevant information over the long haul.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On “soft goals”

    I think this whole conversation is a by-product of two things:

    1) “grass is always greener syndrome” — i.e., fans and most media are for the most part monomaniacally focused on a single team. They have a very limited view of the rest of the league, usually only the product of seeing them play their own team or through hi-light reels.

    This inevitably leads to poor comparisons of all non-stat-based metrics like “soft goals.”

    2) “seen him good/bad without further evidence” — i.e., fans and most media are for the most part content to rely entirely on their perception of players to form an opinion of their strength/weaknesses. When some external analysis is sought as a check on one’s own bias it is usually limited to other viewers (also relying solely on their own perception).

    This trust in one’s own judgment is simply a form of egoism. It leads to a confirmation bias that rejects, or diminishes, any empirical evidence to the contrary.

  67. Truth says:

    Colonel Obvious:
    He’s saying whether a goal is “soft” or not is irrelevant information over the long haul.

    I think they are irrelevant if you believe Dubnyk is at his peak potential. Sure, you can take his save percentage and say if he keeps that up (excellent apart from the odd goal that an NHL goalie shoud stop) the Oilers will be happy with him as a number 1 for while, but I think if he works those mental lapses of out of his game he will be a top 10 goalie. Not a possible number 1 goalie.

    This from Hockey’s future (I know, hockey’s future):

    “Above all, Dubnyk possesses the one great talent no coach can teach: size. At 6’5.5 Dubnyk gives very little of the net up to opposition shooters with his hulking size. Very strong positioning and great rebound control are two other strong characteristics of Dubnyk’s play in the net. Consistency is an issue and Dubnyk, despite taking up as much of the net as he does, still has a tendency to let in a soft goal and can get visually shaken by it. Mental maturity will help overcome that flaw.”

    It is possible that the write up was completed by a fan of the Oilers, but I think this shows that Dubnyk has been known to let an above average amount of soft goals in. My earlier mention of scouts and WHL coaches knowing of this tendency as well is not based off this HF reference.

    Edit:
    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/devan_dubnyk/

  68. Radman says:

    Dubs will have this year to prove the detractors wrong and change perception. In the end it might not matter. I think the organizational pursuit of others is a tell, and my hunch is we might not be having this discussion next year at this time. We wait.

  69. bookje says:

    Ok, fine, you are all correct, Dubnyk makes a disproportionate number of spectacular saves that would get by most NHL goalies thus greatly raising the moral of his team to go out there and win the game.

    This must be true as it would be the only way to explain how he lets in a greater proportion of ‘soft goals’ relative to other NHL goalies and still maintains a good NHL save percentage.

    As per the suggestion that Dubnyk has specifics he needs to work on, I am sure that is true – like any goalie, there is room for improvement.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, on the Schiefle goal, Hrudey did say on the broadcast that Dubnyk had the wrong angle to the shooter. Because he’s a former goalie, Hrudey tried to find an excuse for why Dubie would do that, but to reiterate from the post game thread – excuses are for losers.

    The most heartening thing from me is Eakins comment that he doesn’t try to manage goalies and as far as he’s concerned only one thing matters “stop the puck and you’ll play, don’t stop it and you won’t” paraphrasing.

    Hopefully he’s a man of his word. Wouldn’t surprise me if LaBarbara plays 35 this season.

  71. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    This trust in one’s own judgment is simply a form of egoism. It leads to a confirmation bias that rejects, or diminishes, any empirical evidence to the contrary.

    Unfortunately, the converse is the reliance upon stats taken to mean more than they can possibly mean. In other words, there isn’t a stat for every aspect of the game. Therefore, stats can’t totally describe the game. So, attempting to do so is fallacy. Also unfortunate is the air of legitimacy, or infallibility, that comes along with that position. Somehow one is right if one has a metric to point to, regardless of whether that metric adequately describes the issue at hand. It becomes politics in short order.

    I’ll also add that confirmation bias is not restricted from the stats-reliant, either. Confirmation bias exists wherever someone is invested in the outcome, regardless of the argument made or the evidence given. The tendency to misuse a stat to support one’s argument is also confirmation bias. I don’t think anyone is perfectly exempt from it either.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    bookje:
    Ok, fine, you are all correct,

    Thanks

  73. godot10 says:

    Ben:
    If Perron gets 20 and Uncle Yesse maintains anything near that level of play, that’s huge for the pro scouts.

    Joensuu played almost all of the last two season in Europe. The pro scouts don’t get credit for that. The European scouts do.

    The OKC guys pointed out Gadzic. The pro scouts don’t get credit for that.

    Acton and Hamilton are more Eakins than the pro scouts.

    Perron was a contract dump by St. Louis for cap reasons. The Oilers paid full price. Paajarvi and a 2nd. Perron’s contract is probably fair value.

    The pro scouts are just collecting cheques for no work. Being Lowe and MacT’s buddies pays. They haven’t done anything for a decade.

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    theres oil in virginia: Unfortunately, the converse is the reliance upon stats taken to mean more than they can possibly mean.In other words, there isn’t a stat for every aspect of the game.Therefore, stats can’t totally describe the game.So, attempting to do so is fallacy.Also unfortunate is the air of legitimacy, or infallibility, that comes along with that position.Somehow one is right if one has a metric to point to, regardless of whether that metric adequately describes the issue at hand.It becomes politics in short order.

    I’ll also add that confirmation bias is not restricted from the stats-reliant, either.Confirmation bias exists wherever someone is invested in the outcome, regardless of the argument made or the evidence given.The tendency to misuse a stat to support one’s argument is also confirmation bias.I don’t think anyone is perfectly exempt from it either.

    Couldn’t agree more. Qualitative evidence shouldn’t be ignored or summarily dismissed. Nor should evidence be ignored when it’s not convenient to the narrative (e.g. Dubnyk’s .500 sv pct in the shootout). EVERYONE is guilty of bias. It’s part of the human condition.

  75. jb says:

    I agree that overall Dubnyk is pretty solid, which we can conclude based on the team stat that is SV%. He’s always posted strong numbers on poor defensive teams.

    I think it only becomes a real problem if we start seeing a correlation between pressure mounting in a game and general timing of the softie.

    If those softies are random, no one really cares all that much. If they’re appearing only in closer games in the 3rd period.. we might have a problem. Not only do they deflate the team, it energizes the opponenet. It’s a potentially huge momentum swing you don’t want late in a game.

  76. Bar_Qu says:

    Coach Eakins says @RNH_93 will return to action on Monday when the #Oilers host the New Jersey Devils.— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) October 4, 2013

    Well this is welcome news.

  77. fifthcartel says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 3m

    Ryan Nugent Hopkins expected to debut in game vs the New Jersey Devils.

    there is a god.

  78. Bag of Pucks says:

    For obvious reasons, one of the favorite pastimes of posters to this blog is playing the role of armchair GM. With that in mind, I propose a simple challenge to those who want to participate.

    IMO, one of the biggest errors I think MacT made this offseason is not addressing the starting goaltending position. Specifically, if the opportunity did in fact exist to sign Tim Thomas before the Panthers, not doing so was a huge error on the part of our GM as he represents a massive and immediate upgrade IMHO.

    As armchair GMs, who do you place your bet on for this season? Dubnyk or Thomas

    Please state your pick. I’ll tabulate the votes and we can review them at end of season. End of season evaluation of the players will be made on two criteria (save percentage and games played). Any changes or suggestions to the t&cs are welcomed.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Truth: I think they are irrelevant if you believe Dubnyk is at his peak potential.

    I’m not sure what “peak potential” has to do with “soft goals.” If he’s a better goalie he lets less goals in period.

    FWIW, I think he can be a better goalie and his SV% over the last several years suggests improvement.

    theres oil in virginia: Unfortunately, the converse is the reliance upon stats taken to mean more than they can possibly mean.In other words, there isn’t a stat for every aspect of the game.Therefore, stats can’t totally describe the game.So, attempting to do so is fallacy.Also unfortunate is the air of legitimacy, or infallibility, that comes along with that position.Somehow one is right if one has a metric to point to, regardless of whether that metric adequately describes the issue at hand.It becomes politics in short order.

    I’ll also add that confirmation bias is not restricted from the stats-reliant, either.Confirmation bias exists wherever someone is invested in the outcome, regardless of the argument made or the evidence given.The tendency to misuse a stat to support one’s argument is also confirmation bias.I don’t think anyone is perfectly exempt from it either.

    I’m not sure how you’ve reached any of these conclusions. They fly in the face of my comment.

    There is no reason to make “saw him good/bad” and “took the time to check experience against a simple, non-complex stat like SV%” mutually exclusive. Ideally, they go hand-in-hand.

  80. godot10 says:

    Dead Cat Bounce:

    That was one of the reasons that Vancouver purchased the team that became the Utica Comets and ended their affiliation with the Chicago Wolves which are also owned by local interests.

    The Oilers deal with OKC includes control over the hockey operations.

    The guys in OKC are brilliant. They rebuilt a team on the fly last year after the NHL guys were recalled, and came within overtime of game 7 of the AHL finals, with their 3 top defensemen being 1st year professionals.

    The year before that, they survived two months with an ECHL defense, because of all the Oiler recalls, and injuries to D in Edmonton and OKC. They also went two rounds deep in the playoffs that year, and only missed the finals because Ben Scrivens was outstandingly good in the series against them.

  81. RMGS says:

    fifthcartel:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 3m

    Ryan Nugent Hopkins expected to debut in game vs the New Jersey Devils.

    there is a god.

    And, Gagner’s skating with the team.

    My preference would be for the parade to go from Jasper Avenue, down through the river valley, then up to Whyte Avenue.

  82. Andropod says:

    bookje:
    “Dubnyk seems to let in one easy shot at a bad time each game”

    “If you hold a quarter up to the sun at mid day, the quarter and the sun seem to be the same size”

    “Hospital wards seem to be busier on nights with a full moon”

    Do you see the similarities?

    As opposed to believing what seems to be true, perhaps some critical thought is needed.Dubnyk is a big goalie. If you watch other big goalies (Luongo, Vokuon, Neimi, etc) you see similar goals getting by them.Smaller goalies that move around a lot more never seem to have the same kind of goals scored against them.Of course, they let in as many goals, but they never look quite so bad.Why?Because they move around a lot more. So, when they let in a goal, they usually look like they just missed it despite making some acrobatic move.When large goalies let in such goals, they usually look immobile and awkward.

    This is why save percentage matters. It countersyour imperfect perceptions.It measures the proportion of shots that a goalie stops – which is the important thing.

    The other problem I have with the ‘bad goal’ argument is it goes like this.Dubnyk is a really good goalie who loses focus every so often and lets in one bad goal a game (on average).If we accept this, it means that a goalie with Dubnyk’s skill, but without the focus problem would let in one less goal per game.This would make Dubnyk one of the best goalies in NHL history.So, we would need to accept that Dubnyk is the most talented goalie who ever played the game, but he has a focus problem.

    The alternative explanation is much easier to believe.Dubnyk has NHL level talent and is fairly consistent in the quality of goals that he lets in and the quality of saves he makes.However, due to his size and style, some of those LOOK like they are soft goals.

    Occam’s razor suggests that latter explanation is most likely.

    I’m wondering if size perhaps masks skill to some degree? What type of goalie has won Stanley over the last 5 years? Tallest, highest save % or that intangible, performance under pressure?

    I’m guessing it’s actually skill over size and save %, and wondering if the taller, less skilled goalies just find it easier to get the higher save % than the shorter, more skilled goalies, that win critical games?
    Except that Dubnyk has won his fair share of non-Stanley championships.

  83. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bar_Qu: Well this is welcome news.

    fifthcartel:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 3m

    Ryan Nugent Hopkins expected to debut in game vs the New Jersey Devils.

    there is a god.

    yea!!!!!

    let’s hope this isn’t a rush job!

    but… yea!!!! a baby is born!

  84. delooper says:

    jb:
    Does anyone else get an uneasy feeling on every shot against? I truly feel like every single shot has a chance to go in on Dubnyk. I just can’t shake the feeling for some reason. I want to believe.

    I think that’s true of every goalie. From the perspective of quantum mechanics, even if you had a sheet of plywood blocking off the entire net, every shot would still have a non-zero chance of going into the net. Just a very very small one.

  85. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: fans and most media are for the most part content to rely entirely on their perception of players to form an opinion of their strength/weaknesses.

    As one particularly intelligent poster in the comments section of one of the Sun articles put it: “I don’t care what the stats say.Dubnyk you suck.”

    Reminds me of that Wild blogger … remember him? “I don’t care what the stats say. Taylor Hall is a second liner at best.”

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Andropod: I’m wondering if size perhaps masks skill to some degree? What type of goalie has won Stanley over the last 5 years?Tallest, highest save % or that intangible, performance under pressure?

    I’m guessing it’s actually skill over size and save %, and wondering if the taller, less skilled goalies just find it easier to get the higher save % than the shorter, more skilled goalies?

    I think you’re forgetting voodoo.

    I think we can attribute SC winners to two things: 1) ridiculously good teams on a hot streak carrying along an average goaltender; or 2) a very good team on a hot streak being carried along by a goaltender on an improbable run.

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Follow

    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Gagner says pain is minimal right now. He says he lost 10 lbs after the injury but is now back close to his playing weight of 202 lbs.

    Does anyone else think that is an incredibly short time to lose and then gain back 10 pounds? I imagine one’s body being very confused after going through that: “wtf are we doing here?!!”

  88. delooper says:

    The Oilers blog just announced RNH will play on Monday against NJ.

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=21063

  89. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: There is no reason to make “saw him good/bad” and “took the time to check experience against a simple, non-complex stat like SV%” mutually exclusive. Ideally, they go hand-in-hand.

    Agreed. That isn’t the conclusion I drew from reading your post. Hence, my post suggesting that egoism and confirmation bias are not restricted to those relying on qualitative evidence, but are also found among those using metrics to support their arguments. Everyone is biased, and our ability to attenuate our biases varies.

    Romulus Apotheosis: I’m not sure how you’ve reached any of these conclusions. They fly in the face of my comment.

    If you contend that confirmation bias is restricted to the qualitative arguer, then yes, I vehemently disagree. Evidence against this contention can be found every day by listening to a politician talk, or going to a Washington DC thinktank‘s web page.

    It’s difficult to address all aspects of what I said in response to your sweeping statement that you disagree with all of my conclusions. You don’t agree that confirmation bias can be found in one’s metric-based argument?

  90. delooper says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Follow

    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Gagner says pain is minimal right now. He says he lost 10 lbs after the injury but is now back close to his playing weight of 202 lbs.

    Does anyone else think that is an incredibly short time to lose and then gain back 10 pounds? I imagine one’s body being very confused after going through that: “wtf are we doing here?!!”

    It’s not so crazy. I’d sometimes lose 10 pounds in a single hockey game, just from water. And I didn’t weigh anywhere near 200 lbs at the time. I imagine most of that weight loss was just the solids leaving his intestines. That and a little water loss.

  91. godot10 says:

    I don’t know why the meme that Hall and Hemsky are good together persists. They would good early in the pre-season. Whoopty-dee. Early in the preseason.

    They sucked in the last exhibition game against a Dallas squad that was half AHL’ers and in the opening game of the season Hall and Hemsky were dominated by the Ladd-Little-Wheeler line (except for the Hemsky dangle, but EC teams still fall for the dangle, but that won’t happen again, like it almost never happens against WC teams anymore). Nugent-Hopkins might be enough to make that a good line. But 1 NHL game. Hall and Hemsky were outplayed.

    After Yakupov missed his man/coverage on a goal against on an D-zone draw against Winnipeg, I doubt we see Yakupov with Gordon much for awhile, because Gordon is going to be taking a lot of D zone draws. If Nugent-Hopkins and Gordon and Acton are going to be guys relied on in the D zone, Gagner and Yakupov are a really likely combination when everyone is healthy. Yak and Arcobello and heavy O-zone starts for awhile methinks.

  92. theres oil in virginia says:

    Arcobello-Perron-Yakupov: I’m interested in seeing this line because Yakupov (by eye and by Corsi) rolled over Winnipeg in the first period then didn’t see much ice in the second period Tuesday night.

    spoiler:
    Yak had one of his worst games in an Oiler uniform I thought on Tuesday*.

    *(but y’know ONE PERIOD of Corsi said differently… baffling)

    Interesting juxtaposition. I thought Yak was pretty invisible.

  93. Kris11 says:

    I called Monday on RNH. What do I win?

  94. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia: Interesting juxtaposition. I thought Yak was pretty invisible.

    I thought he was too (except for a couple of defensive errors, misreads). Utterly un-Yak-like for such a dynamic player.

    The kid gets so excited, I’m gonna put it down to first game jitters and a new system and new linemates.

  95. spoiler says:

    Kris11: I called Monday on RNH. What do I win?

    Well what did Monday say when you called him?

  96. Truth says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I’m not sure what “peak potential” has to do with “soft goals.” If he’s a better goalie he lets less goals in period.

    If you (or the Oilers management) are willing to accept that Dubnyk today is the best he is going to get than you realize he is, at best, an average starting NHL goalie. If you believe he has room for improvement and improves one thing, his tendency to allow soft goals (mental lapse, IMO), then you (or the Oilers management) may believe Dubnyk is a potential top 10 goalie in the league and therefore you don’t try and trade Darnell Nurse for Cory Schneider.

  97. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: FollowEdmonton OilersVerified account‏@EdmontonOilersGagner says pain is minimal right now. He says he lost 10 lbs after the injury but is now back close to his playing weight of 202 lbs.Does anyone else think that is an incredibly short time to lose and then gain back 10 pounds? I imagine one’s body being very confused after going through that: “wtf are we doing here?!!”

    Dunno, but I wish I could lose 10 pounds that fast. In a related note, my co-workers would like to have my jaw wired shut.

  98. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia: Agreed.That isn’t the conclusion I drew from reading your post.

    Perhaps I wasn’t as clear as I ought to have been. But if you re-read my comment with fresh eyes and following this extension, you’ll see that’s the conclusion I was inferring.

    theres oil in virginia: my post suggesting that egoism and confirmation bias are not restricted to those relying on qualitative evidence, but are also found among those using metrics to support their arguments. Everyone is biased, and our ability to attenuate our biases varies.

    But, I’ve said nothing to suggest the contrary. Re-read my post.

    I merely noted that the, hypothetically speaking, average fan is content to rely upon their own perceptions and not seek any external support, which may confirm or trouble their own judgments.

    I said nothing about a hypothetical alternative, i.e., a fan rigidly dismissive of first hand experience and reliant upon stats, or the arguments they develop on that basis.

    What I did say, is that the average fan typically does little to mitigate his/her bias, such as consult stats. Not that some other fan who ignores first hand experience is bias-free, or that stats offer some context-free access to pure unadulterated truth (neither of which you attributed to me directly, I merely cite them as an example)

    theres oil in virginia: If you contend that confirmation bias is restricted to the qualitative arguer, then yes, I vehemently disagree.

    I’ve said nothing to lead you to this conclusion.

    It is very likely my comment was poorly worded, but I don’t see how that inference can be drawn from my comment — though I do have the benefit of proximity to my own brain! ;)

    theres oil in virginia: It’s difficult to address all aspects of what I said in response to your sweeping statement that you disagree with all of my conclusions. You don’t agree that confirmation bias can be found in one’s metric-based argument?

    To the latter question. I do agree. To the former statement: your entire comment appears to be responding to an inference I did not intend.

  99. Logan91 says:

    I got all excited and thought Nuge was at 202 pounds for a second.

  100. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Dunno, but I wish I could lose 10 pounds that fast.In a related note, my co-workers would like to have my jaw wired shut.

    Priceless!

    I’m sure a few guys around here would like to see my keyboard wired shut! :)

    I don’t have any experience with that kind of rapid (and to my eyes) radical weight fluctuation. I can only marvel at what human bodies can do.

  101. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    I thought Yak was pretty invisible.

    probably had something to do with Eakins shutting him down for the entire second period (just about)… that would make any player “invisible” ha!

    I have no idea if Eakins missed the boat on this one or if Yak was truly off his game or what.

  102. SlapBet says:

    Anyone up for a legitimate trade and sign for Miller? We will lose at least two of our top 5 prospects and at least 1 first rounder, probably a second rounder aswell…but if we had him, that could be the secret potion we are missing

  103. iHockeyWpg says:

    Dallas Eakins says Nuge will play next Monday against New Jersey. Oilers Web Site.

  104. Truth says:

    spoiler: Dunno, but I wish I could lose 10 pounds that fast.

    I hear ya. Rumour has it those that are stuck in the hospital for a few days living off the IV drip only after surgery have a tendency to drop weight fast. Can only imagine what would happen to a pro athlete that probably eats 3,000 calories a day plus a few protein shakes.

    If it were me the IV would be compensating for beer and donairs. Maybe the same effect?

  105. Bar_Qu says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Priceless!

    I’m sure a few guys around here would like to see my keyboard wired shut!

    I don’t have any experience with that kind of rapid (and to my eyes) radical weight fluctuation. I can only marvel at what human bodies can do.

    The guy I train under says boxers do this all the time to get the optimal match-up against the opponent. Don’t eat for 24 hrs before weigh-in, drink minimal water and then go back to eating right after the number is recorded. Actual weight is not a good indicator of anything, but the average recorded weight over a period of time is better.

    But comments like that are likely to re-ignite the “soft goals vs. save percentage” nonsense that existed earlier in the thread. (btw, “soft goals” is a valueless term, much like “good penalty” or “aggressive hit”, etc).

  106. Big Dan says:

    All this debate of Dubnyk by the numbers vs. Dubnyk as we see him.

    Look, Dubnyk is going to have to get the opportunity to win a big game and then we’ll know. Hopefully, it’s this year in the playoffs.

    Let’s look at Tommy Salo or Dwayne Roloson. Now, which guy would you want when the score is close and the game is do-or-die? Roli of course. You just KNEW his concentration level would peak, his competitiveness would kick in, and he’d do it for you.

    Salo was always the same. By the numbers, the goalies are similiar…
    2001 to 2003 (before Salo’s crash)= regular season save percentages .914, .904, .913
    Pretty good

    Roloson
    2006 to 2008= regular season save percentages .905, .909, .901

    Talent-wise, you could say those two goalies were similiar. But in the playoffs, you knew Roli was going to be .924 or .927.

    Salo’s body language to me seemed to be so lackadaisical and relaxed. Who can forget 2003- Game 6 against Dallas in Edmonton? The crowd is jacked. MAB flips Morrow. Salo lets in two stinkers early. Team fights hard, plays their hearts out, ties the game 2-2.

    5 minutes left in the game. Ulf Dahlen (or was it Lehtinen?) scores on a weak wraparound to win it 3-2. Salo’s save percentages in the big playoff games were usually .888 or .895. When the pace increases or an opponent presses, he doesn’t crank up his game.

    Dubnyk reminds me of that. Oilers were winning 1-0 over the Flames a couple years ago. I think it was their 3rd game in 4 nights. They were dog tired. Dubnyk playing well, nursing a shutout, then lets in a couple in the final five minutes to lose 2-1.

    I can think of a lot of examples like that – there was a Detroit game last year …

    Now, they weren’t necessarily bad goals he let in. But c’mon man! We needed you there. That’s why you’re making close to $4M.

    Yes, I’ve seen him STEAL games too. Dubnyk seems to flourish when his team is badly outshot, like against San Jose. It’s the close ones like Game #1 when he doesn’t seem to deliver in my mind. I just don’t have that confidence in him.

    I hope I’m wrong but I see a lot more of Salo than Roloson in Dubnyk. Call me part of the crazy “saw him good” crowd who ignores numbers and complains about soft goals. I’m not denying Dubnyk is a good goalie who has surpassed my expectations. I just don’t see him being the answer – but I’m willing to give him one more year.

    Save percentage be damned!

  107. slopitch says:

    I add 6-8 pounds over xmas every year. So losing 10 lbs not eating in 2 weeks seems reasonable. 10 pounds could also be exaggerated with weighing in a different times in the day.

    Very pumped that Nuge is coming back. The decision to not add a C seems more reasonable now. If only Dubnyk had made 2 more saves on Tues…

  108. hunter1909 says:

    Kris11:
    I called Monday on RNH. What do I win?

    You’re an Oiler fan?

    Despair.

  109. spoiler says:

    Logan91: I got all excited and thought Nuge was at 202 pounds for a second.

    He was. But only for a second.

  110. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Truth: If you (or the Oilers management) are willing to accept that Dubnyk today is the best he is going to get than you realize he is, at best, an average starting NHL goalie.If you believe he has room for improvement and improves one thing, his tendency to allow soft goals (mental lapse, IMO), then you (or the Oilers management) may believe Dubnyk is a potential top 10 goalie in the league and therefore you don’t try and trade Darnell Nurse for Cory Schneider.

    Thanks.

    That explains it better. I follow you now.

    But, isn’t there an alternative?

    Something like: we think he can get better and therefore stop more goals and completely leave “soft goals” out of it?

    ie., the point is to stop more goals, whether they are soft or hard or whatever.

    FWIW I don’t disagree with the “soft goal” idea. I think it is clear to everyone that occasionally a goal gets by a goalie that simply looks awful and in most cases probably was, i.e., could and should have been stopped.

    Let me try to illustrate my problem with this discussion another way:

    –say we have two goalies (x and y)
    –both face 30 shots every night over an 82 game season (2460 shots)
    –they play all 82 games
    –the both let in 3 goals a game (246 goals)
    –all are even strength goals
    –they both have an EVSV% of .900
    –but goalie x lets in only “soft goals” (and has such a reputation) and goalie y let in only “hard goals” (and has such a reputation)

    In evaluating these two players at the end of the season… does it matter?

  111. Zipdot says:

    bookje: f we accept this, it means that a goalie with Dubnyk’s skill, but without the focus problem would let in one less goal per game. This would make Dubnyk one of the best goalies in NHL history. So, we would need to accept that Dubnyk is the most talented goalie who ever played the game, but he has a focus problem.

    The alternative explanation is much easier to believe. Dubnyk has NHL level talent and is fairly consistent in the quality of goals that he lets in and the quality of saves he makes. However, due to his size and style, some of those LOOK like they are soft goals.

    Occam’s razor suggests that latter explanation is most likely.

    False dichotomy. It’s not one or the other, it could be a third thing.

    I submit that Dubnyk has an unusually low number of shut out wins for a goalie with his SV%. Why is this? Something to be explored. I think it’s because yeah, he lets in goals that he should be able to save. Maybe not “one per game”, but it doesn’t have to be one per game; it can just be a whole lot. And I think it is.

    The guy needs to start coming through. Gotta steal some games for us. If he can’t, then we need another starter who can.

  112. godot10 says:

    Gagner said, if one listens closely, that he lost 8-10 pounds, and that he still has 4 pounds to get back to his normal playing weight. i.e. He’s gained 50-60% per cent of his weight back, not all of it yet, but getting it back by the time his jaw is strong enough and sufficiently healed will not be an issue.

  113. spoiler says:

    Khabibulin would lose 10 lbs of water just through the holes drilled in his left skate. And then… he would let in a softie.

  114. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    (neither of which you attributed to me directly, I merely cite them as an example)

    Nor did I intend to do so.

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    though I do have the benefit of proximity to my own brain!

    Is that really a benefit? (Hehe. Sorry, too easy to resist the temptation.)

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    your entire comment appears to be responding to an inference I did not intend.

    Although hard to express, my comment probably intended two tones, as I wasn’t sure whether you were intending that conclusion. My first tone was intended to be more of an add-on to your comment. I probably should have used “corollary” as opposed to “converse”, to simply suggest that one who clings to bias can ignore or employ metrics to their advantage. My second tone was more of the “are you suggesting that…”.

  115. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I have no idea if Eakins missed the boat on this one or if Yak was truly off his game or what.

    Me either. I’m tempted to re-watch the game to see if I can tell. I’ll probably just wait ’til Saturday and see what happens in Vancouver.

  116. Lois Lowe says:

    I just noticed that Dale Tallon now has both Tom Gilbert and Ryan Whitney playing D minutes for his squad. If they could only land MAB and Tom Poti too.

  117. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia: Although hard to express, my comment probably intended two tones, as I wasn’t sure whether you were intending that conclusion. My first tone was intended to be more of an add-on to your comment. I probably should have used “corollary” as opposed to “converse”, to simply suggest that one who clings to bias can ignore or employ metrics to their advantage. My second tone was more of the “are you suggesting that…”.

    I see! very good.

    I had a similar mix-up the other day… but I was in the other seat. Should have known better this time around.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A

    There is something about hitting that reply button that makes the context of comments appear confrontational (which they sometimes are), when they are often merely continuational (to make up a word).

  118. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This is interesting….

    Eakins’ PC. he calls out the “terrible reporting” saying Nuge will be back Sat. vs. Tor or Thurs vs. Mont.

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=451469&catid=4

    I immediately thought of Gregor here… I wonder if he feels slighted after that?

  119. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is interesting….Eakins’ PC. he calls out the “terrible reporting” saying Nuge will be back Sat. vs. Tor or Thurs vs. Mont.http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=451469&catid=4I immediately thought of Gregor here… I wonder if he feels slighted after that?

    I immediately thought of the Edmonton Oilers own website and its blog, which reported the return as Monday. Maybe our granola muncher isnt much of a keyboard cruncher?

  120. commonfan14 says:

    Big Dan: Now, which guy would you want when the score is close and the game is do-or-die? Roli of course. You just KNEW his concentration level would peak, his competitiveness would kick in, and he’d do it for you.

    Roli’s special playoff powers were firmly rooted in his neck-beard. All the stats bear it out.

    I also always felt safer when he got pissed off about something. As Michael J. Fox taught us back in the ’80s, agitated wolfmen are good at sports.

  121. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I see! very good.
    I had a similar mix-up the other day… but I was in the other seat. Should have known better this time around.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
    There is something about hitting that reply button that makes the context of comments appear confrontational (which they sometimes are), when they are often merely continuational (to make up a word).

    And yet, somehow we forgot to insult each other! A terrible oversight. I assure you it won’t not happen again.

    Also, continuational and George Bush make me think of this:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoASZyihalc

  122. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler: I immediately thought of the Edmonton Oilers own website and its blog, which reported the return as Monday. Maybe our granola muncher isnt much of a keyboard cruncher?

    That’s twice this has happened, both with regards to an injured player’s return (Gagner, I believe). In an earlier Eakins PC, he barked at ?Terry Jones? and ?Jones? replied “The GM said it.” Eakins response was not velvety smooth.

  123. RMGS says:

    Coach Eakins:

    “I wanna start off and just … uh…. There’s been some … terrible reporting. People would think that they have the inside scoop on Nugent-Hopkins, that he’ll play next Saturday against Toronto or Thursday against Montreal … and it’s totally false.”

    [pause]

    “He will play Monday against New Jersey.”

    [shock from MSM]

    “Good? Next question.”

    I love this coach.

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=451469&navid=DL|EDM|home

  124. theres oil in virginia says:

    RMGS:
    Coach Eakins:

    “I wanna start off and just … uh…. There’s been some … terrible reporting.People would think that they have the inside scoop on Nugent-Hopkins, that he’ll play next Saturday against Toronto or Thursday against Montreal … and it’s totally false.”

    [pause]

    “He will play Monday against New Jersey.”

    [shock from MSM]

    “Good?Next question.”

    I love this coach.

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=451469&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Aah, I see. I was confustified. I thought he was controverting the Monday start.

  125. wheatnoil says:

    Eakins on RNH’s injury: “I think it’s dangerous to put timelines on guys because one of two things happens. If we tell you 4 weeks and he comes back in 2 it’s like “Oh, he’s coming back too early.” But if it turns into 6 weeks, “Oh, somebody screwed up with the rehab.” You can’t win. So it’s back to what I believe in, the guy is out until he’s cleared to play and ready to play. He’s been cleared by all of our doctors. He’s been working hard in practice. He’s fit. He’s ready to go. He’s cleared by everybody in our organization now to return on that date. So that’s where it is.”

  126. bookje says:

    Zipdot: False dichotomy.It’s not one or the other, it could be a third thing.

    I submit that Dubnyk has an unusually low number of shut out wins for a goalie with his SV%.Why is this?Something to be explored.I think it’s because yeah, he lets in goals that he should be able to save.Maybe not “one per game”, but it doesn’t have to be one per game; it can just be a whole lot.And I think it is.

    The guy needs to start coming through.Gotta steal some games for us.If he can’t, then we need another starter who can.

    A goalie who has few shut outs, but an average save percentage (amongst NHL starters) would have to be more consistent than a goalie with a similar save percentage and more shut outs.

    So, are you arguing that Devon Dubnyk is too consistent, that he should steal games some nights, but have quite a few nights where he lets in five goals?

    How many games did he steal last year? How do you know if your goalie steals a game? How many games do other goalies steal?

    One method of checking this would be to see how many goals they let vs the number of shots that are made on the goalie. It’s too bad there is no way to find out this information because it would help to determine how good the goalie is. Perhaps they could call it ‘percentages of saves made’ or something.

  127. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    this damn website hates the mention of Larry Johnson’s beard!

    It’s terrified of its powers!!!

  128. wheatnoil says:

    RMGS:
    Coach Eakins:

    “I wanna start off and just … uh…. There’s been some … terrible reporting.People would think that they have the inside scoop on Nugent-Hopkins, that he’ll play next Saturday against Toronto or Thursday against Montreal … and it’s totally false.”

    [pause]

    “He will play Monday against New Jersey.”

    [shock from MSM]

    “Good?Next question.”

    I love this coach.

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=451469&navid=DL|EDM|home

    The exchange that followed immediately after was even better!

    —-
    Question: So he’s back… he’s looking that good then… for the Monday?

    Eakins: Well he certainly wouldn’t be looking terrible if I just told you he’s playing Monday.
    —-

    Haha!! Seriously, where do I get tickets to these media events?

  129. russ99 says:

    bookje:
    I would also add that ‘soft goals’ are something you see when you are a fan of a team (and have an emotional investment) as opposed to an objective observer.

    Just for fun, Google the phrase “Soft Goals” and the name of any goalie in the NHL you think is a solid goalie who does not have a habit of letting in soft goals.You will find that every goalie has a horde of fans who think they let in soft goals (except in places like Florida where there are no fans).

    Post of the week.

    From Eklund’s Vezina candidate article he mentions: “Bobrovsky … prone to soft goals during his two seasons in Philadelphia”.

    LOL!

  130. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje: Perhaps they could call it ‘percentages of saves made’ or something.

    That would just be dumb.

    Did you hear Rob Soria on LDWLT today. He actually said something like: Dubnyk let in softies in 9 of 37 games last year. LT was trying to be diplomatic with him, but it was tough. This sort of thing just can’t be quantified. When Dubnyk allows a goal, I think we should just start asking ourselves: WWHD (What Would Hasek Do)? If the answer is that Hasek would save it, then it’s a softie.

    That’s the best metric to use.

  131. Zipdot says:

    bookje: A goalie who has few shut outs, but an average save percentage (amongst NHL starters) would have to be more consistent than a goalie with a similar save percentage and more shut outs.

    So, are you arguing that Devon Dubnyk is too consistent, that he should steal games some nights, but have quite a few nights where he lets in five goals?

    How many games did he steal last year? How do you know if your goalie steals a game? How many games do other goalies steal?

    Your reasoning is not too clear here…

    1. A goalie who has few shut outs, but an average save percentage (amongst NHL starters) would have to be more consistent than a goalie with a similar save percentage and more shut outs.

    Bryzgalov has shutouts in 7% of his games.
    Carey Price has shutouts in 6% of his games.
    Nubdick in 4%.

    I want a higher percentage of shutouts from this goalie, or I want to find a new goalie. Ya get it??

    2. So, are you arguing that Devon Dubnyk is too consistent, that he should steal games some nights, but have quite a few nights where he lets in five goals?

    No, what I’m saying is that I want more shutouts and better goaltending. Got that?

    3. How many games did he steal last year? How do you know if your goalie steals a game? How many games do other goalies steal?

    How do we tell? Maybe by W-L. Devan’s is 50-60. He’s not stealing enough games. Understand?

  132. Zipdot says:

    theres oil in virginia: Dubnyk let in softies in 9 of 37 games last year. LT was trying to be diplomatic with him, but it was tough. This sort of thing just can’t be quantified.

    As Lowetide himself said the other day, listen to the goalie… #40 admitted two weak goals in game 1. Not so hard to quantify after all, if the goalie is telling you which ones were soft.

  133. Bank Shot says:

    Dubnyk’s best finish in save percentage league wide has been 14th to date. That was last year when he was buoyed by a crazy high PK save percentage that doesn’t get brought up too often.

    In those three seasons, Dubnyk has been an average of 18th in save percentage despite not playing that many games compared to much of his peers.

    18th in a 30 team league puts you slightly below average.

    Its true to say that Dubnyk isn’t really the problem, but it’s also true to say that he isn’t part of the solution either.

    Should the Oilers be looking to upgrade if possible? Absolutely.

  134. OilLeak says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Follow

    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Gagner says pain is minimal right now. He says he lost 10 lbs after the injury but is now back close to his playing weight of 202 lbs.

    Does anyone else think that is an incredibly short time to lose and then gain back 10 pounds? I imagine one’s body being very confused after going through that: “wtf are we doing here?!!”

    No, not really. The body carries a lot of water weight, (especially if diet or activity level has changed) I’ve fluctuated up 10 pounds in a single day before.

  135. bookje says:

    Zipdot: Your reasoning is not too clear here…

    1. A goalie who has few shut outs, but an average save percentage (amongst NHL starters) would have to be more consistent than a goalie with a similar save percentage and more shut outs.

    Bryzgalov has shutouts in 7% of his games.
    Carey Price has shutouts in 6% of his games.
    Nubdick in 4%.

    I want a higher percentage of shutouts from this goalie, or I want to find a new goalie.Ya get it??

    2. So, are you arguing that Devon Dubnyk is too consistent, that he should steal games some nights, but have quite a few nights where he lets in five goals?

    No, what I’m saying is that I want more shutouts and better goaltending.Got that?

    3. How many games did he steal last year? How do you know if your goalie steals a game? How many games do other goalies steal?

    How do we tell?Maybe by W-L.Devan’s is 50-60.He’s not stealing enough games.Understand?

    More shutouts would have to lead to a better save percentage (unless the n# of shots drop) unless the goalie also has more high goal games. This is a very simple concept. Your wanting more shutouts simply means you want the goalie to stop more shots.

    So, goalies with more win’s steal more games? This kind of excludes the entire quality of the team in front of the goalie.

    Can you please confirm that you are being serious and not just trolling.

  136. bookje says:

    Bank Shot,

    If the Oilers can upgrade at a reasonable cost, I agree that they should. I don’t have a problem with people saying that there are better goalies out there. The problem is that there are probably no more than 20 better goalies, or as few as 10 and most of them are not easily obtained.

    Hopefully DD can improve his game a bit more and get to that #5 or #10 spot. If he does, however, I still expect there to be lots of Edmonton fans who talk about ‘soft goals’.

  137. theres oil in virginia says:

    Zipdot: As Lowetide himself said the other day, listen to the goalie…#40 admitted two weak goals in game 1.Not so hard to quantify after all, if the goalie is telling you which ones were soft.

    Yeah, but I say more than two in that game. So, whose count are we going by? Let the goalie decide which goals are soft? Maybe not hard to quantify, but hard to accurately quantify. 5 goals allowed and six different answers to the question.

  138. bookje says:

    Has anyone else noticed that a lot of the goals Taylor Hall scores are soft goals? I wish he was more like Yakupov who gets more hard goals.

  139. Woodguy says:

    Andropod:
    Woodguy,

    I would think he’s pissed abut his new role which may not look as good on his resume as coaching to win, as opposed to coaching in support of his nemesis.

    He needs to do what him employers ask him to do.

    If he feels that he can’t then he should quit.

    I manage people and I give them leeway on decisions, but if they disobey or disregard key directives they are gone.

    I just had to let a guy go who was very good for 7 years but couldn’t change things that I needed him to change.

    I have to look after my business, MacT needs to look after his.

  140. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bank Shot: Dubnyk’s best finish in save percentage league wide has been 14th to date.

    That number includes 5 players with 25 games or less, two of which are 15 or less, i.e., goalies with a much smaller sample size.

    Bank Shot: That was last year when he was buoyed by a crazy high PK save percentage that doesn’t get brought up too often.

    I think EVSV% has been brought up here fairly often. DD’s is middling to be sure and a cause for worry. It was pointed at repeatedly IIRC during the Schneids talks (speculating that MacT was looking at the underlying numbers).

    Bank Shot: Its true to say that Dubnyk isn’t really the problem, but it’s also true to say that he isn’t part of the solution either.
    Should the Oilers be looking to upgrade if possible? Absolutely.

    I don’t completely disagree with this.

    I wouldn’t say he isn’t part of the solution. I think a team can win with a goalie of DD’s calibre.

    That said, I completely agree that if a better option is available (noting that goalies are fickle beasts prone to turn it off and on at whim) at the right price, upgrades are always welcome.

    I wasn’t against MacT looking elsewhere this Summer. I did balk at the price he apparently offered for Schneids, though.

  141. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje:
    Has anyone else noticed that a lot of the goals Taylor Hall scores are soft goals?I wish he was more like Yakupov who gets more hard goals.

    You’re kidding right. I have heard that. He scores a goal and someone says: “Luongo wasn’t ready to start the game!”. Actually, I’ve heard it regarding Yak too: “His goals came at the end of the season in a blowout meaningless game.” A real-live troll said that last one.

    Are you arguing that there are no soft goals or that all goalies let them in from time to time?

  142. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Are you arguing that there are no soft goals or that all goalies let them in from time to time?

    I’m pretty sure he’s down to his jock strap and going for a cruise on the ice.

  143. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I’m pretty sure he’s down to his jock strap and going for a cruise on the ice.

    I still want to know if Gregor actually didn’t get the end of that flic.

  144. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I wouldn’t say he isn’t part of the solution. I think a team can win with a goalie of DD’s calibre.

    Antii Niemi.

  145. bookje says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    I am kidding. What I am saying is that it doesn’t matter how pretty they are, regardless of whether you are the goalie or the shooter. What matters is the long term trend of how many you score/let in.

    The fact that DD looks awkward when he gets scored on sometimes, but other goalies with similar save percentage don’t look awkward on the same type of goal (because they play the game differently) does not make DD any worse of a goalie than those goalies.

    To further this, I would say that over the course of a year, all goalies face a similar mix of shots in terms of quality (though to be fair a team with really good defence may reduce this – I don’t think this has applied to the Oilers in recent years). If the shots on DD over a year are similar to the shots on another goalie – say Tomas Vokoun, and they stop a similar % of those shots, then it is irrelevant how they look when making those saves.

  146. Woodguy says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: You need to bear in mind that the Oilers don’t actually own the Barons so they don’t control team philosophy regarding winning and development.

    That was one of the reasons that Vancouver purchased the team that became the Utica Comets and ended their affiliation with the Chicago Wolves which are also owned by local interests.

    Nelson is on the Oilers payroll though.

  147. bookje says:

    theres oil in virginia: Antii Niemi

    I did some reading on some Sharks blog pages and found this. Clearly, he lets in too many softies and doesn’t steal enough games.

    “Niemi’s problem, particularly this season, is that he will do that but then let in a softy — or multiple softies — later in the game thanks to his mechanics, and subsequently we will lose the game. So in the end his great save earlier in the game didn’t end up game-saving. People have been watching all season to see when or if Niemi steals us games, because there is quite a bit of concern over whether he is good enough for us. And the honest truth is he rarely does. He stole game 1 for us from the Blues.”

  148. commonfan14 says:

    Bank Shot: That was last year when he was buoyed by a crazy high PK save percentage that doesn’t get brought up too often.

    We’re all scared to bring it up because we know deep down that it isn’t repeatable without Petrell.

  149. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje:
    theres oil in virginia,

    I am kidding.What I am saying is that it doesn’t matter how pretty they are, regardless of whether you are the goalie or the shooter.What matters is the long term trend of how many you score/let in.

    The fact that DD looks awkward when he gets scored on sometimes, but other goalies with similar save percentage don’t look awkward on the same type of goal (because they play the game differently) does not make DD any worse of a goalie than those goalies.

    To further this, I would say that over the course of a year, all goalies face a similar mix of shots in terms of quality (though to be fair a team with really good defence may reduce this – I don’t think this has applied to the Oilers in recent years).If the shots on DD over a year are similar to the shots on another goalie – say Tomas Vokoun, and they stop a similar % of those shots, then it is irrelevant how they look when making those saves.

    Yep. Also, whether the goal was “stoppable” or not is kinda irrelevant, too. If he stops 92% of shots faced with a crap defense in front of him, then he’s a good goalie. 82% with an improved defense on the other hand…sucks. Dubnyk sucked on Tuesday, but I doubt that he’ll suck all year.

  150. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje: I did some reading on some Sharks blog pages and found this.Clearly, he lets in too many softies and doesn’t steal enough games.

    “Niemi’s problem, particularly this season, is that he will do that but then let in a softy — or multiple softies — later in the game thanks to his mechanics, and subsequently we will lose the game. So in the end his great save earlier in the game didn’t end up game-saving. People have been watching all season to see when or if Niemi steals us games, because there is quite a bit of concern over whether he is good enough for us. And the honest truth is he rarely does. He stole game 1 for us from the Blues.”

    Bet you didn’t have to look hard for that, either.

  151. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    The thing with Dubnyk is he’s a ‘good’ goaltender but you typically need an exceptional one to win the Cup.

    It helps, but you don’t typically need one.

    Great goalies can help, but they are not required.

    Here’s all the goalies to win the Cup since the 05 lockout and their regular season SV% they year they won.

    Dubnyk’s save percentage last year: .920

    Cup winners:

    Crawford – .926 – Good, not great
    Quick – .929 – He was great
    Thomas – .938 – He was great
    Neimii – .912
    Fleury – .912
    Osgood – .914
    Giggy – .918
    Ward – .882 (!)

    Goalies like Quick, Craig Anderson, Bobrovsky and Lundquvist actually did this fairly frequently last season and the great ones do every year.

    This helps prove the point as none of these goalies have won a cup.

    Chris Osgood won 3 times and he was below average in terms of starters and SV% every year he won.

  152. rickithebear says:

    Consistent is a BS term.

    the goalie least likely to give you the most chance to win is a Goalie with low Ga total for 4+ ga games and High shut out rate. Cause the 1 to 3 GA games will have a GA higher than there average.

    A goalie with limited So and A high Gtoal total in 4+ goals against games will have a the 1-3 GA average be lower than the goalie average.
    give me a whole bunch of 1-2 GA games and 5-9 5+ GA in a season. from a goalie.
    the probabilty of highest win count is at its beat.

  153. bookje says:

    Woodguy,

    You stop it with all of your numbers. Everyone knows you need a great goal tender to win the cup. Its just a fact. It’s common sense.

  154. Bank Shot says:

    bookje:
    Bank Shot,

    If the Oilers can upgrade at a reasonable cost, I agree that they should.I don’t have a problem with people saying that there are better goalies out there.The problem is that there are probably no more than 20 better goalies, or as few as 10 and most of them are not easily obtained.

    Hopefully DD can improve his game a bit more and get to that #5 or #10 spot.If he does, however, I still expect there to be lots of Edmonton fans who talk about ‘soft goals’.

    I don’t know how you can say there are as few as ten goalies better then Dubnyk. He has never posted a save percentage in the top 10. I could list off the top of my head 8-10 goalies that have outperformed him the last three seasons.

    I’d guess there are 15-20+ guys with a higher save percentage then him in the last 3 seasons.

  155. Bank Shot says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That number includes 5 players with 25 games or less, two of which are 15 or less, i.e., goalies with a much smaller sample size.

    I think EVSV% has been brought up here fairly often. DD’s is middling to be sure and a cause for worry. It was pointed at repeatedly IIRC during the Schneids talks (speculating that MacT was looking at the underlying numbers).

    I don’t completely disagree with this.

    I wouldn’t say he isn’t part of the solution. I think a team can win with a goalie of DD’s calibre.

    That said, I completely agree that if a better option is available (noting that goalies are fickle beasts prone to turn it off and on at whim) at the right price, upgrades are always welcome.

    I wasn’t against MacT looking elsewhere this Summer. I did balk at the price he apparently offered for Schneids, though.

    I used only qualified leaders when looking at save percentage. Most of the guys would have played as many or more games then Dubnyk. There were no 15 game guys included.

    Teams can win with a goaltender of Dubnyk’s calibre for sure. But those teams are almost always veteran laden and pretty well stacked in all positions besides goal. They usually have consistent coaching and systems over a few seasons.

    The Oilers aren’t that team.

    If there is one position where an upgrade can make the biggest difference, it is goal. I think having a strong goaltender would do wonders for this team and their confidence in their ability to win games.

  156. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bank Shot: I used only qualified leaders when looking at save percentage. Most of the guys would have played as many or more games then Dubnyk. There were no 15 game guys included.

    This simply isn’t the case. 2 were. Labarbs (who only started 10 games, played in 15) and Bernier (who started 12, played 14)

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20122013&gameType=2&team=&position=G&country=&status=&viewName=savePercentageLeaders

    Agreed about teams with not great goalies needing to be damn good, said as much above.

    Not as strong on the possibility of a better goalie turning things around as you are, but in general I agree with the sentiment. A better goalie = a better team. With any luck DD with be that better goalie.

  157. Colonel Obvious says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t know how you can say there are as few as ten goalies better then Dubnyk. He has never posted a save percentage in the top 10. I could list off the top of my head 8-10 goalies that have outperformed him the last three seasons.

    I’d guess there are 15-20+ guys with a higher save percentage then him in the last 3 seasons.

    These things are easy to look up. Over the last four years Dubnyk ranks 26th, and slightly higher if you include only the last three years. Now that is actually much better than you think considering 130 goaltenders have played during that time. Dubnyk has clearly established he is in the top third of the pool of potential NHL goaltenders.

    That said, I’m not sure what your point is. Nobody thinks Dubnyk is the best goalie in the league. What I think, and I presume others think, is that Dubnyk is an above average goaltender and better than the alternatives, especially considering the cost of replacement. The numbers back this up.

  158. rickithebear says:

    Chris Osgood won 3 times and he was below average in terms of starters and SV% every year he won.

    MAF one his cup only needing to be better than .897 save% 2 times in his 16 wins.

    the cup is about being better than the other team Gf and GA over 16 games.

    That involves timely scoring from the 3-4 lines or other worldly SV%.

    D. dubnyk’s only real post season based play is what!
    9 games with team canada.

    were he is 9W – 0L 1.00 GA .939 SV%

    i am comfortable with that!
    based on this discussion.

    bank Shot:
    NJD golaies faced 23.1 shots per game
    Our goalies faced 32.8 shots/gm

    Using wins and Ga to measure a goalie is a moron’s game.
    Though I will post it for the tools out there who think the goaiie has more of a affect than the 40% of goals against.
    20% of wins.

  159. Zipdot says:

    bookje: You stop it with all of your numbers. Everyone knows you need a great goal tender to win the cup. Its just a fact. It’s common sense.

    Bookje, you’re not exactly in mid-season form today… Feeling a bit off? Usually you’re … I dunno, more clever??

    Anyway, yeah, DD. Gotta get rid of him.

  160. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Goalies like Quick, Craig Anderson, Bobrovsky and Lundquvist actually did this fairly frequently last season and the great ones do every year.

    This helps prove the point as none of these goalies have won a cup.

    Jonathan Quick has won the Cup.

  161. Bank Shot says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This simply isn’t the case. 2 were. Labarbs (who only started 10 games, played in 15) and Bernier (who started 12, played 14)

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20122013&gameType=2&team=&position=G&country=&status=&viewName=savePercentageLeaders

    Agreed about teams with not great goalies needing to be damn good, said as much above.

    Not as strong on the possibility of a better goalie turning things around as you are, but in general I agree with the sentiment. A better goalie = a better team. With any luck DD with be that better goalie.

    Those two guys aren’t included in qualified leaders from last season according to Yahoo!. I did mess up though as I didn’t realize that Dubnyk was in a three way tie for 12th.

    I don’t have faith in Dubnyk getting any better luck. He used that up last season posting such a high PK save %.

  162. Kris11 says:

    Yeah Bookie, where are the thunderous sarcasm-hits. Lately in irony-warmups, Bookie has been the first one off the ice. He is a European humorist though, so we expect that low level of effort from him.

  163. spoiler says:

    Bag of Pucks: Jonathan Quick has won the Cup.

    If people would actually spent the time to read the comments here, one would know that Woodguy said exactly that just a few lines above. Quite obviously he was referring to the rest of the goalies in that list. Nitpicking SOOOOO helps move the conversation forward.

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Re RNH:

    Wouldn’t it be smarter to wait and see if RNH returns healthy, and can remain healthy?

    Expect half the NHL cheap shot contingent to have Oiler games circled this season, until those in charge learn how a winning hockey club is run.

  165. bookje says:

    Zipdot: Bookje, you’re not exactly in mid-season form today…Feeling a bit off?Usually you’re … I dunno, more clever??

    Anyway, yeah, DD.Gotta get rid of him.

    I’ve been arguing with people on the internet – doing so kills brain cells.

    http://xkcd.com/386/

  166. hunter1909 says:

    bookje: I’ve been arguing with people on the internet – doing so kills brain cells.

    It’s like kicking a chair with bare feet.

  167. Bank Shot says:

    Colonel Obvious: These things are easy to look up.Over the last four years Dubnyk ranks 26th, and slightly higher if you include only the last three years.Now that is actually much better than you think considering 130 goaltenders have played during that time. Dubnyk has clearly established he is in the top third of the pool of potential NHL goaltenders.

    That said, I’m not sure what your point is.Nobody thinks Dubnyk is the best goalie in the league.What I think, and I presume others think, is that Dubnyk is an above average goaltender and better than the alternatives, especially considering the cost of replacement.The numbers back this up.

    He’s not an above average starter though. I could care less where he places on a list of mostly replacement players.

    The cost to replace Dubnyk is fairly low considering you could probably go out and sign Vokoun, and Labarbera in the off season for less than the cost of signing Dubnyk alone and still have equal goaltending.

    I know Vokoun is injured but its an example of there being average goalies out there every season in free agency. If we aren’t upgrading Dubnyk, we could probably get equal goaltending for cheaper.

    Why the opposition to improving the goaltending if possible? Got to make moves somewhere. Should we not look for more defencemen because our D-core now looks slightly below average?

    It’s easier to find good goaltending then a number number 1 D-man, or the top six powerforward.

  168. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bank Shot: Those two guys aren’t included in qualified leaders from last season according to Yahoo!. I did mess up though as I didn’t realize that Dubnyk was in a three way tie for 12th.

    I don’t have faith in Dubnyk getting any better luck. He used that up last season posting such a high PK save %.

    Ahh. that explains it. I wasn’t trying to screw with you, just get the numbers right.

    I agree about DD’s luck. But I think he can improve on that EVSV%. If he can’t he won’t be getting another contract with the Oil (unless he nails the luck dept. twice in a row and fools MacT… who seems unfoolable re: DD)

  169. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Follow

    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    #Oilers recall forward Ryan Hamilton from the @OKCBarons

    not sure how I missed this…

  170. bookje says:

    Kris11:
    Yeah Bookie, where are the thunderous sarcasm-hits. Lately in irony-warmups, Bookie has been the first one off the ice. He is a European humorist though, so we expect that low level of effort from him.

    I would do better if I had an enforcer, but ever since we traded Steve Smith to the Brain Symptoms, I have had a hard time playing my game out there as I keep getting hassled by people with syntaxic inconsistencies.

  171. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    MIght want to check Dubnyk’s EV SV%.

    Given that SH SV% goes up AND down like a widow’s nightshirt, EV SV% is a far better metric to assess a goaltender.

    It ain’t pretty.

  172. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Follow

    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    #Oilers recall forward Ryan Hamilton from the @OKCBarons

    not sure how I missed this…

    Indeed. There’s even a story about it on this blog!!!!!

  173. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    bookje: I would do better if I had an enforcer, but ever since we traded Steve Smith to the Brain Symptoms, I have had a hard time playing my game out there as I keep getting hassled by people with syntaxicinconsistencies.

    What say?

    Daft are you?

  174. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Dead Cat Bounce:
    MIght want to check Dubnyk’s EV SV%.

    Given that SH SV% goes up AND down like a widow’s nightshirt, EV SV% is a far better metric to assess a goaltender.

    It ain’t pretty.

    If helps if you read through the comments sometimes.

  175. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: If helps if you read through the comments sometimes.

    Oh, I have.

    But the comments dripping with condescension and holier than thou smugness can be very distracting.

  176. Lowetide says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: Oh, I have.

    But the comments dripping with condescension and holier than thou smugness can be very distracting.

    I only saw you post a couple of times. :-)

  177. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I only saw you post a couple of times.

    Crushes the softball.

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