OILERS AT COYOTES G12, 13-14

In 2012-13, the Oilers were 43.5% CF 5×5/close, this season, this season it’s 45.8; this does not–I REPEAT–does not–mean Edmonton will win the Stanley Cup this season. The Oilers are a little easier on the eyes this year.
benton4I think we should probably talk about this season in terms of expectations. Reading the comments over the last few days, I think some of us are going to blow a shoe or two this year, because expectations are so high for this team and the results (so far) haven’t been there. So, maybe we should go back and stare at a few home truths:

THE EDMONTON OILERS HAVE NO WINNING TRADITION TO BUILD ON

None. They’re trying, with a new coach and a new captain imported from Boston and new systems and a brand new plan. While we’re feeling sorry for Magnus, maybe he’s William Holden and the rest of the Oilers are the British Army at the River Kwai. However, there’s a time to sow, and a time to reap.

THE EDMONTON OILERS DON’T HAVE ENOUGH ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

They’re getting there, but God Almighty that’s one high, high mountain. I think Craig MacTavish tried like a bugger to add as many as he could during the summer (Ference, Perron, Gordon, LaBarbera and then a couple of longshots like Belov) but the fact is Edmonton didn’t have a pot to piss in in terms of veteran NHL players and it still shows. Add that to the young men trying to grow up in a heartbeat and you get this–an imperfect, uneven, difficult winter appears on the way.

Again.

WE HAVE NO SECRETS

The majority of Oiler fans feel it’s the same script this year as last, we’re Bill Murray with the rodent riding shotgun on our way to the Quarry in an old beat up truck to  end it all. However, there are real signs of progress here–I can see it, and you can see it–so in a way that makes us unique. We have a secret: the Oilers are making progress, and the things we’re seeing (despite being slowed by injury and road trips) will eventually result in wins and passing teams for good.

It’s a brand new day, we’re just waiting for the warmth of the sun.

This weekend is a bitch schedule, the Coyotes are a tough out and the Kings are home and dry waiting for tomorrow night. Patience. Things are going to get better.

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466 Responses to "OILERS AT COYOTES G12, 13-14"

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  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    I’d try to get Smyth orJoensuu back in, as opposed to calling up Omark. I like Omark in a controlled situation, and maybe Gordon-Jones is strong enough but against those LA Kings I’d kill for the veteran. And let’s face it, tomorrow night’s game is a must-win after this loss.

    San antonio is closer than EDM and I don’t think Smyth is going to perform well coming off a rush flight and nursing an injury. Joensuu didn’t look good when rushed to play either and I can’t imagine getting on a flight is going to help his back out.

    Omark is basically a “vet”… the only other option might be Lander as a winger. Or, maybe R. Hamilton is closer than we imagine.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot: But it’s not good CORSI.

    If the only thing we have to hang our hat on is the 23rd best CORSI in the NHLwe’re setting the bar so LOWE its become a terrible joke.

    It’s a much better Corsi, adding today’s road game in PHX in (!!!!!!) the numbers will improve. There are issues, but surely you’d agree this is heading north.

  3. G Money says:

    PunjabiOil: And you know, I’m a MacT guy – but this is on him. If he wasn’t comfortable with Dubnyk (offered up Nurse plus prospects), he needed to get a 1B goalie like Bryz. Not a career backup in Labarbera.

    Aw, c’mon guy, Barbie’s got a STANLEY CUP RING!

    Say, didn’t you post a BlacqueJacqueian “I’m done with the Oilers forever” post not that long ago? “Just when I thought I was out … they pull me back in!”

  4. russ99 says:

    If you told me at the end of last season that Eager and Jones would be getting decent icetime on the Oilers this fall, I’d have asked what you were smoking.

    Currently our bottom six is Gordon, Acton, Jones, Eager, Gazdic and Pitlick before he got hurt, with the only decent defensive upgrade out injured is Joensuu. Who fills the empty spot now, Hamilton?

    Other than Gordon, how is that an improvement over last year?

  5. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: The linesman who stopped Gordon from getting the puck deep twice AND THEN waived off the icing needs to be hit with a ball of his own shit.

    ahhh… I was yelling at the tv: “get out the fucking way you idiot!!!”

    and, I have no idea why that icing was waved off… there’s really no excuse for it, other than I want to get home to some pancakes.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 17s
    The @EdmontonOilers drop to 1-5-1 when scoring first. Last season teams that scored first won roughly 70% of the time

    The hockey gods are angry my friends.

    I think a public burning of something symbolic of the last few seasons are in order.

    Suggestions?

  7. G Money says:

    I think I’ve been called an optimist a dozen times in the last week – despite being in the pre-season predictors camp of “No Playoffs”.

    Optimistic thought for the day:

    Last year, at 5-3-2 (or something), I remember looking at this team and saying “Yeah, it’s a winning record, but if they keep playing like this, horrible shot differentials, bad Corsi, etc. it’s going to burn them eventually. You can’t count on good luck and uncharacteristically good goaltending for very long.” (Apparently, I was a pessimist back then. And strangely enough was mocked by the statistically illiterate then too, because Corsi’s don’t matter, only results do)

    This year, I am looking at the team and saying “Yeah, it’s a terrible record, but if they keep playing like this, decent shot differentials and decent Corsi more often than not, it’s going to turn for them eventually. You aren’t going to suffer bad luck and uncharacteristically bad goaltending for very long.”

    /Optimism

  8. Jon K says:

    Woodguy:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 17s
    The @EdmontonOilers drop to 1-5-1 when scoring first. Last season teams that scored first won roughly 70% of the time

    The hockey gods are angry my friends.

    I think a public burning of something symbolic of the last few seasons are in order.

    Suggestions?

    Where does Pronger live these days? He’s essentially retired, maybe he’d be willing to lend a hand, or loveseat.

  9. Bank Shot says:

    Lowetide: It’s a much better Corsi, adding today’s road game in PHX in (!!!!!!) the numbers will improve. There are issues, but surely you’d agree this is heading north.

    It’s actually been trending downwards since the season opener so I’m not sure I’d agree with that assessment.

    Competing for 16th spot isn’t that difficult. Oilers aren’t even close.

  10. jake70 says:

    Jon K: Where does Pronger live these days? He’s essentially retired, maybe he’d be willing to lend a hand, or loveseat.

    He’ll have to run it by Lauren first.

  11. Andy P says:

    20-30 games, and this team will have their stuff together. It would have been sooner than that if we hadn’t had all those injuries to our best players, starting with the late surgery on Nuge.

    BTW I changed the tag from Andropod. Got a bit sick of that one.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot: It’s actually been trending downwards since the season opener so I’m not sure I’d agree with that assessment.

    Competing for 16th spot isn’t that difficult. Oilers aren’t even close.

    Competing for a playoff spot in the west is a damn hard thing to do.

  13. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: Competing for 16th spot isn’t that difficult. Oilers aren’t even close.

    It is bloody hard. I’m on record as saying the Oilers won’t make it this year.

    Nonetheless, if the team keeps playing a reasonably composed defensive game and shores up the PK a bit, when they get Hall, Gagner, Smyth, and Joensuu back in the lineup, they will make a legit run for it.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bank Shot: It’s actually been trending downwards since the season opener so I’m not sure I’d agree with that assessment.

    Competing for 16th spot isn’t that difficult. Oilers aren’t even close.

    Not true.

    The Oil have won the corsi battle the last two in a row.

  15. HugThePost says:

    Let’s stay positive:

    This year’s Oilers are statistically the greatest Shit Team we’ve ever iced!!!

    They really do make it hard to cheer for them though

    We’re 3-8-1 and going further and further into the abyss………

  16. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: It’s actually been trending downwards since the season opener so I’m not sure I’d agree with that assessment.

    Competing for 16th spot isn’t that difficult. Oilers aren’t even close.

    Right now they are being graded against teams that have had a lot more home games than the Oilers.

    Winning the corsi battle on the road is very tough as you don’t get the match ups.

    Oilers won the corsi battle on the road today vs. 17th 5v5 Corsi team. That’s a good thing.

    OIler’s corsi (averaged by total game corsi)

    Home (4 games) 52.0%
    Away (8 games) 44.15%

    Averaged using games = 46.7%, Extra skater site = 47.1% so not far off doing it this way.

    If they played the same amount of home and away they’d be 48% and up around 20th in NHL.

    They have a couple of really awful games in the sample too, I expect the road corsi to get better.

    FUN FACT: The Oilers’ two worst corsi 5v5 was OTT (26.6% LORDY) and MTL (40.8%)

    They won both games.

    Small sample sizes are fun!!!!

  17. RMGS says:

    G Money: The team is doing a lot better this year (by eye and by most underlying stats) than last year.

    I agree that the team looks better by eye, but that narrative about looking better by advanced stats needs a revision. Check the numbers. They don’t suggest “doing a lot better” if we compare apples to apples.

  18. Bank Shot says:

    Lowetide: Competing for a playoff spot in the west is a damn hard thing to do.

    Every other team in the West has made it at least twice since the last time the Oilers made the playoffs. Most have them have at least been in competition for the 8th spot another one or two times if they didn’t make it.

    The Oilers haven’t been close in 7 years, and an 8th year is being served right now.

    I’d argue it’s a lot harder to do what the Oilers have done over the last 8 years then it is to make the playoffs. Even the other poor performing teams have gotten it right every once in a while.

    It’s hard to go far in the playoffs. Hard to make the playoffs? meh. Hard to be in the running for the playoffs? Hardly.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot: Every other team in the West has made it at least twice since the last time the Oilers made the playoffs. Most have them have at least been in competition for the 8th spot another one or two times if they didn’t make it.

    The Oilers haven’t been close in 7 years, and an 8th year is being served right now.

    I’d argue it’s a lot harder to do what the Oilers have done over the last 8 years then it is to make the playoffs. Even the other poor performing teams have gotten it right every once in a while.

    It’s hard to go far in the playoffs. Hard to make the playoffs? meh. Hard to be in the running for the playoffs? Hardly.

    The Oilers rebuild would like a moment. No one would deny this organization tanked 2009 winter through 2012 summer. No one. that’s not what we’re talking about here, though.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=468870&catid=4

    Eakins’ Presser.

    Eakins mentions not blocking the point shot on the last two goals.

    Both times it was 41.

    He ending up chasing on the last goal and wasn’t in position on the shot, on the tying goal it wasn’t as egregious, but I think it was still his shot to block..

  21. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Right now they are being graded against teams that have had a lot more home games than the Oilers.

    Winning the corsi battle on the road is very tough as you don’t get the match ups.

    Oilers won the corsi battle on the road today vs. 17th 5v5 Corsi team.That’s a good thing.

    OIler’s corsi (averaged by total game corsi)

    Home (4 games) 52.0%
    Away (8 games) 44.15%

    Averaged using games = 46.7%, Extra skater site = 47.1% so not far off doing it this way.

    If they played the same amount of home and away they’d be 48% and up around 20th in NHL.

    They have a couple of really awful games in the sample too, I expect the road corsi to get better.

    FUN FACT: The Oilers’ two worst corsi 5v5 was OTT (26.6% LORDY) and MTL (40.8%)

    They won both games.

    Small sample sizes are fun!!!!

    They also have only faced 4 of the top ten corsi teams in the league. 3 of those teams are near the bottom of the top ten and Winnipeg started off very poorly CORSI wise and has since surged up the charts.

    There are small positives, but they are just that. Small. Not looking like a team that will even compete for the playoffs this year.

  22. fuzzy muppet says:

    By eye, this is a better team, BUT watching the PK is horrifying. Every penalty taken looks like it’s going to a a GA.

  23. VanOil says:

    CBCs Arcade Fire intro was epic

  24. RMGS says:

    Bank Shot: They also have only faced 4 of the top ten corsi teams in the league. 3 of those teams are near the bottom of the top ten and Winnipeg started off very poorly CORSI wise and has since surged up the charts.

    There are small positives, but they are just that. Small. Not looking like a team that will even compete for the playoffs this year.

    Anything’s possible with a long run of good luck and above average save % (see the Leafs last year), but I have to agree with most of this post. At what point does pessimism become realism, again?

  25. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Eakins mentions not blocking the point shot on the last two goals.

    Both times it was 41.

    He ending up chasing on the last goal and wasn’t in position on the shot, on the tying goal it wasn’t as egregious, but I think it was still his shot to block..

    Lander’s a callup away.

  26. jake70 says:

    When Eakins asked about the PP: Well I only saw it twice so that’s a problem.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Eakins mentions not blocking the point shot on the last two goals.

    Both times it was 41.

    He ending up chasing on the last goal and wasn’t in position on the shot, on the tying goal it wasn’t as egregious, but I think it was still his shot to block..

    Lowetide: Lander’s a callup away.

    But we told Acton to stake out some land… there’s gold in dem pastures!!

    ———-
    I hope these Pens stick it to the leaves.

    ———-
    Also, a lovely Dalmore 15 in…

    At least we can say (after so many years), that we are watching some decent hockey. This is no longer a shitty team that only wins by way of luck. They are middling team that has a chance to win most nights, a real chance that’s earned.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    VanOil:
    CBCs Arcade Fire intro was epic

    I like that song… but the rest of the album is pretty meh to my ears.

    oh… and CBC’s hockey video editing in these pre-edited pieces is very good. It’s one of their real talents.

  29. godot10 says:

    G Money:

    This year, I am looking at the team and saying “Yeah, it’s a terrible record, but if they keep playing like this, decent shot differentials and decent Corsi more often than not, it’s going to turn for them eventually. You aren’t going to suffer bad luck and uncharacteristically bad goaltending for very long.”

    /Optimism

    The Corsi ISN’T decent. I haven’t checked after today’s game. But yesterday it was worst in the Western Conference.

    Winning = Positive Corsi + Positive Special Teams + Goaltending.

    ZERO for three.

    The Oilers’ play reflects their position in the standings. LAST

  30. Bank Shot says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    But we told Acton to stake out some land… there’s gold in dem pastures!!

    ———-
    I hope these Pens stick it to the leaves.

    ———-
    Also, a lovely Dalmore 15 in…

    At least we can say (after so many years), that we are watching some decent hockey. This is no longer a shitty team that only wins by way of luck. They are middling team that has a chance to win most nights, a real chance that’s earned.

    You sound like a guy that wants to buy the next couple of home games from me.

  31. G Money says:

    Woodguy: FUN FACT: The Oilers’ two worst corsi 5v5 was OTT (26.6% LORDY) and MTL (40.8%)

    An interesting note on the Ott game and the Corsi. One of those games that highlights the importance of combining what happened in the game by eye in order to understand the metrics underneath.

    While the Corsi was horrible, it was pretty obvious from the outset that the Sens were well aware of the Oilers horrid goaltending to that point and had been coached to take shots from anywhere and everywhere – especially from near the blue line as soon as they got in the Oiler zone. You could see that right from the first shift of the game. Thankfully, Dubie got his game back and it didn’t work. The Oilers on the other had seemed to develop an allergy to shooting in that game, and had a ton of “skating around” possession in the O-zone and tried repeatedly to pass it into the net.

    You can see this effect in the shots Gametracker: http://i.imgur.com/ZdaCNGW.png. The Sens took 12 to 14 shots from within 5 feet of the blueline, while the Oilers took 3 or 4. That ten shot differential of long distance shots was the majority of the shot differential in the game.

    The chances were much closer than the Corsi (though still in Ottawa’s favour), but some good shotmaking and some good fortune meant a 3-1 win.

  32. leadfarmer says:

    So Labarbara is crap just like expected.

  33. VanOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I like that song… but the rest of the album is pretty meh to my ears.

    oh… and CBC’s hockey video editing in these pre-edited pieces is very good. It’s one of their real talents.

    Agreed on all points. Reflector has grown on me to strong like, so the rest of the album has a chance.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: They also have only faced 4 of the top ten corsi teams in the league. 3 of those teams are near the bottom of the top ten and Winnipeg started off very poorly CORSI wise and has since surged up the charts.

    There are small positives, but they are just that. Small. Not looking like a team that will even compete for the playoffs this year.

    Fair points.

    Unless they get goaltending they won’t compete for anything.

    I think with league average goaltending they do.

    Goal differential so far: -13

    Goal differential if they have .915 goaltending: +4

    GAA is 4.00 (!!!)

    SA/GM = 30; total shots against 360

    GA = 48

    .915 x 360 = 329 saves = 31 GA, not 48

    Oilers team SV%

    11/12 .908
    12/13 .915
    13/14 .870

    Off a cliff it has dove…..

    Also,

    +4 GD would put them 5th tied with LAK and CHI

  35. Woodguy says:

    G Money: An interesting note on the Ott game and the Corsi.One of those games that highlights the importance of combining what happened in the game by eye in order to understand the metrics underneath.

    While the Corsi was horrible, it was pretty obvious from the outset that the Sens were well aware of the Oilers horrid goaltending to that point and had been coached to take shots from anywhere and everywhere – especially from near the blue line as soon as they got in the Oiler zone. You could see that right from the first shift of the game. Thankfully, Dubie got his game back and it didn’t work. The Oilers on the other had seemed to develop an allergy to shooting in that game, and had a ton of “skating around” possession in the O-zone and tried repeatedly to pass it into the net.

    You can see this effect in the shots Gametracker: http://imgur.com/ZdaCNGW.The Sens took 12 to 14 shots from within 5 feet of the blueline, while the Oilers took 3 or 4. That ten shot differential of long distance shots was the majority of the shot differential in the game.

    The chances were much closer than the Corsi (though still in Ottawa’s favour), but some good shotmaking and some good fortune meant a 3-1 win.

    I agree with all that.

    The Oilers were also awful that game.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jussi Jokinen just had a shift with Crosby and Malkin… good thing Tambo didn’t put in a waiver claim.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bank Shot: You sound like a guy that wants to buy the next couple of home games from me.

    You throw in the plane tix and accommodation and you’ve got a deal!

  38. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I’d try to get Smyth orJoensuu back in, as opposed to calling up Omark. I like Omark in a controlled situation, and maybe Gordon-Jones is strong enough but against those LA Kings I’d kill for the veteran. And let’s face it, tomorrow night’s game is a must-win after this loss.

    Joensuu said on his twitter on Oct 24 that “I’m still about 2 weeks away” when a fan asked him when he was going to play again.

    I went to grab it to post it, but its gone.

    Team must have directed him to take it off.

  39. Woodguy says:

    OKC Barons Gameday ‏@BaronsGameDay 5m
    Tonight’s #OKCBarons scratches: Musil, Martindale, Lander, Hunt

    Lander scratched?

    Keeping him out in case he gets the call?

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Healy just called out the TOR home hits counter. Hughson followed the statement with a pregnant pause (“ignore negative information about leafs; ignore negative information about leafs” going through his head).

  41. G Money says:

    godot10: The Corsi ISN’T decent. I haven’t checked after today’s game. But yesterday it was worst in the Western Conference.

    Since you choose to look at the smallest sample data (Fenclose) that supports your point, as opposed to the bulk of data (shots, chances, Corsi) that doesn’t, I doubt anyone’s going to change your mind. No point in trying to change the minds of the “Hall is a second line player no matter what the data says” brigade and their ilk.

    For others actually interested in the analysis, this is my assessment of Corsi, particularly the the game by game results of Corsi so far (I call Corsi a win or lose if it is >2% different e.g. 47.9% and below is a loss, 48% – 52% is a tie, >52% is a win. I use 5×5 since that is generally the determining factor of possession a la shot metrics). The idea here is that, predictively you should win the Corsi wins, lose the Corsi losses, and get or give up a point in the ties. It doesn’t exactly work like that, of course, but the point is to assess the predictive value over the season.

    Yesterday, the Oilers 5×5 Corsi overall was 24th in the league. Today it is 23rd in the league at 47.1%. A two percent improvement over last year (so far), where it was dead last most of the season. Some are using “close” at this point, but with twelve games in the books (a small enough sample size to being with), cutting off two-thirds of the data to look at close tells you little.

    The Oiler game by game 5×5 Corsi:

    Jets: Corsi W, Score L
    Van: Corsi L, Score L
    NJD: Corsi T, Score W/OT
    Cdn: Corsi T, Score L (should be OTW)
    Tor: Corsi L, Score L/OT
    Wsh: Corsi T, Score L (should be OTW)
    Pit: Corsi T, Score L (should be OTL)
    NYI: Corsi L, Score L
    Ott: Corsi L, Score W
    Mtl: Corsi L, Score W
    Wsh: Corsi W, Score L
    Phx: Corsi W, Score L

    When I say the Oilers are “better than their record”, in essence I am looking at how they performed game by game and comparing it to what they actually got.

    By record, the Oilers are 3-8-1, with four points.

    Game-by-game, they *should* be 6-5-1, with 13 points.

    Or to put another way, the teams Corsi so far is suggesting that they will finish the season well ahead of what they’ve put in the books so far. In previous seasons, that same effect showed that they would finish well back of what their early record indicated – and they did. Just as the stats indicated that Dubynk would rebound and deliver solid goaltending, so to do the Corsi indicate the Oilers will do the same. Out of the playoffs, but well ahead of their current pace, and well ahead of the last four years.

    And they will.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    OKC Barons Gameday ‏@BaronsGameDay 5m
    Tonight’s #OKCBarons scratches: Musil, Martindale, Lander, Hunt

    Lander scratched?

    Keeping him out in case he gets the call?

    Could be, Oilers sent him down very early I wonder if Eakins saw him good at all.

  43. fifthcartel says:

    Haha poor Omark.

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    EV strength Corsi or EV strength play period doesn’t mean much if your special teams are utterly fucking incompetent. Last 7 games:

    EDM 2 WSH 4; 2-2 EV 0-2 ST
    EDM 2 PIT 3; 2-2 EV 0-1 ST
    EDM 2 NYI 3; 2-2 EV 0-1 ST
    EDM 3 OTT 1; 2-1 EV, 1-0 ENG
    EDM 4 MTL 3; 4-1 EV, 0-1 ST; 0-1 5v6
    WSH 4 EDM 1 (all EV)
    EDM 4 PHX 5; 4-3 EV, 0-2 ST

    Net: EDM 18 OPP 23; 17-15 EV; 0-7 ST; 1-1 5v6

    So if you like just look at the EV numbers & console yourself that the Oilers are breaking even. Then look at those ST numbers & break out the Kleenex &/or single malt.

  45. russ99 says:

    Labarbera is a backup. We can’t expect him to steal games.

    However it is a problem that the guy the opponent starts every night between the pipes is better than our guy. Maybe that would explain some of the Corsi / W-L disparity.

    Again, I really want to know why MacT just stopped trying to improve the team when he didn’t get Carlson? We needed a better goalie option, a 4th line center, shutdown forwards, better defensemen, etc.

    I’ll give him credit for Belov, but that’s it.

  46. russ99 says:

    fifthcartel,

    Calling up Omark to play bottom six minutes with our retreads, goons and coach’s son would be a waste. Let him keep piling up points in the AHL until we need help in the top 6.

  47. RMGS says:

    G Money: Yesterday, the Oilers 5×5 Corsi overall was 24th in the league. Today it is 23rd in the league at 47.1%. A two percent improvement over last year (so far), where it was dead last most of the season.

    Dude, you’ve gone through all this trouble but forgot to check how the team’s EV CF% was last year at this point to make a fairer comparison. The “great improvement” by cumulative EV Corsi is just not there yet, though of course we all hope that (and the luck and the goaltending) changes.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Playing Hanna Barbara tell us what we needed to know: Dubnyk is not the guy this management team will go to war with next season. jmo.

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide:
    Playing Hanna Barbara tell us what we needed to know: Dubnyk is not the guy this management team will go to war with next season. jmo.

    Not so fast. Back-to-back games are the time when many teams will give their backup one of the two starts. Often enough that nothing can be read into it. (Unless JLB starts again tomorrow!)

  50. Pablo Aimar says:

    Lowetide,

    They didn’t want to go to war with him THIS season. No way he is here next year.

  51. theres oil in virginia says:

    You could interpret the fact that they brought in LaBarbera this season as a move to make Dubnyk comfortable knowing that he has the lead in net this year. They’re buddies and LaBarbera is a career backup, not likely to push Dubnyk. Kind of a “show us you can be the #1 guy here, it’s your net” statement. Not really off to a good start. Either way, Dubnyk will play himself into or out of the future starter’s role this year.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Not so fast. Back-to-back games are the time when many teams will give their backup one of the two starts. Often enough that nothing can be read into it. (Unless JLB starts again tomorrow!)

    Still, this team can’t afford to rotate normally while bleeding.

  53. PunjabiOil says:

    Say, didn’t you post a BlacqueJacqueian “I’m done with the Oilers forever” post not that long ago? “Just when I thought I was out … they pull me back in!

    Haha, no, that wasn’t me. I’ll take my Oiler loyalty to my grave.

  54. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: Still, this team can’t afford to rotate normally while bleeding.

    Eakins has a thing with players playing against their old team. Even in the preseason, he stated that it was important for him to play Larsen against Dallas for that reason.

  55. theres oil in virginia says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Say, didn’t you post a BlacqueJacqueian “I’m done with the Oilers forever” post not that long ago? “Just when I thought I was out … they pull me back in!

    Haha, no, that wasn’t me.I’ll take my Oiler loyalty to my grave.

    I think that was Asia Oil, aka Dark Asia.

  56. rickithebear says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    EV strength Corsi or EV strength play period doesn’t mean much if your special teams are utterly fucking incompetent. Last 7 games:

    EDM 2 WSH 4; 2-2 EV 0-2 ST
    EDM 2 PIT 3; 2-2 EV 0-1 ST
    EDM 2 NYI 3; 2-2 EV 0-1 ST
    EDM 3 OTT 1; 2-1 EV, 1-0 ENG
    EDM 4 MTL 3; 4-1 EV, 0-1 ST; 0-1 5v6
    WSH 4 EDM 1 (all EV)
    EDM 4 PHX 5; 4-3 EV, 0-2 ST

    Net: EDM 18 OPP 23; 17-15 EV; 0-7 ST; 1-1 5v6

    So if you like just look at the EV numbers & console yourself that the Oilers are breaking even. Then look at those ST numbers & break out the Kleenex &/or single malt.

    Bang on!

    Gordon 2.71min 136/155 GA/60
    Acton 2.17 149/155
    Hemsky 1.27 147/155
    RNH 1.23 151/155
    Eberle 1.21 #1/155
    Hall 1.00 #1/155

    Last year:
    Belanger 3.01 #106/156 GA/60
    Petrell 2.58 77/156
    Smyth 2.50 #18/156
    Horcoff 2.48 #45/156
    Smithson 2.15 #22/156
    Gagner 1.60 #8/156
    Gordon 2.55 #74/156
    jones last two years
    12-13 1.29 #92/156
    11-12 2.43 #39/160

    Eakin play
    Gordon-jones
    Hall-Eberle
    Gagner-Smyth

    When they are all healthy.

  57. gcw_rocks says:

    So, the smartest man in the room spent to the cap and created a last place team. And the coach that makes the Oilers smarter took highly effective special teams and destroyed them. Sweet.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Fedun (Larsen) Weird goal apparently 3-2.

  59. denny33 says:

    G Money,

    A corsi win against Washington …..Wowl

    Even the head coach commented on the team.

  60. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Still, this team can’t afford to rotate normally while bleeding.

    (Qu

    Don’t panic. Even a 65 GP a year goalie gets every 5th game off. DD started 4 in a row, & with a Thursday/Sat afternoon/Sunday set it makes total sense to start the backup in the middle game. They just needed a decent game out of him. (Didn’t see it, but 5 GA doesn’t sound that good)

  61. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Don’t panic. Even a 65 GP a year goalie gets every 5th game off. DD started 4 in a row, & with a Thursday/Sat afternoon/Sunday set it makes total sense to start the backup in the middle game. They just needed a decent game out of him. (Didn’t see it, but 5 GA doesn’t sound that good)

    I don’t think the PP GA can be blamed on LaBarbera, but he didn’t have a quality start on a day when even an average outing would have been a win.

  62. Gret99zky says:

    G Money: It is bloody hard. I’m on record as saying the Oilers won’t make it this year.

    Nonetheless, if the team keeps playing a reasonably composed defensive game and shores up the PK a bit, when they get Hall, Gagner, Smyth, and Joensuu back in the lineup, they will make a legit run for it.

    I’m on record as saying the Oilers won’t make it this year as well. They will likely be out of the playoff picture by the end of November.

    As a matter of fact I will go on record and predict they won’t make it next year as well.

    This team is a bad bet.

  63. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    EV strength Corsi or EV strength play period doesn’t mean much if your special teams are utterly fucking incompetent. Last 7 games:

    EDM 2 WSH 4; 2-2 EV 0-2 ST
    EDM 2 PIT 3; 2-2 EV 0-1 ST
    EDM 2 NYI 3; 2-2 EV 0-1 ST
    EDM 3 OTT 1; 2-1 EV, 1-0 ENG
    EDM 4 MTL 3; 4-1 EV, 0-1 ST; 0-1 5v6
    WSH 4 EDM 1 (all EV)
    EDM 4 PHX 5; 4-3 EV, 0-2 ST

    Net: EDM 18 OPP 23; 17-15 EV; 0-7 ST; 1-1 5v6

    So if you like just look at the EV numbers & console yourself that the Oilers are breaking even. Then look at those ST numbers & break out the Kleenex &/or single malt.

    Bruce, you came to the party late! If you look up a bit in the thread, you’ll see that the discussion is around a (reasonable) assertion that success stems from positive 5×5 Corsi and special teams and goaltending. My point is that we’ve done OK (both OK overall and better than last year) on 5×5. Yes, our goaltending has been garbage, our special teams have been fucking garbage, and our PK goaltending has been utter fucking garbage.

    The exercise is not to ‘console’ anyone. I believe that the goaltending will come around (notwithstanding Barbie’s fuckup today, I think Dubynk has already proven that, having won two games in Ott and Mtl that we deserved to lose).

    The big question now is the PK especially. I am not yet as concerned as others will be in the sense that I believe this will come around too. Some of it is goaltending – it’s not coincidence that in the Ott and Mtl wins, the team only allowed a single PP goal. The other is a matter of personnel. As your colleague Staples has pointed out, the team has seen almost 100% turnover in PK personnel, AND a new system, AND a bunch of PK newbies such as Hall and Hemsky, both of whom have stunk. So for now at least I expect (hope) to see some improvement over time.

    And then we get back to the equation of positive 5×5 Corsi + OK special teams + decent goaltending = a decent team – fundamentally much better than last years team, which stunk at 5×5 but was saved by artificial and unsustainable goaltending, especially on the PK.

    Nothing more.

  64. G Money says:

    Gret99zky: I’m on record as saying the Oilers won’t make it this year as well.They will likely be out of the playoff picture by the end of November.

    As a matter of fact I will go on record and predict they won’t make it next year as well.

    This team is a bad bet.

    I won’t agree with you on that (yet). If MacT makes the approximately the same calibre of adds/upgrades as he did this year, I do believe the Oilers *will* make the playoffs next year. That’s a lot of supposition between now and then, though.

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