OILERS WAVE EAGER, GAZDIC NEW MAYOR

Luke Gazdic scored a goal, won a fight and the hearts of Oiler fans last night with an impressive 5 minutes on Rexall ice. In a perhaps related story, Ben Eager has been placed on waivers. This shows several things:

  • Oiler fans love, love, love their fighters. From Curt Brackenbury to Gazdic, there’s a home in our community for an enforcer.
  • Craig MacTavish loves transactions, possibly more than me (his first 3-for-1 may actually kill me).
  • The Oilers either want to rid themselves of one of their 48 contracts or want to save cap dollars wherever possible.
  • The Zamboni may be waived next.

 CURRENT 23-MAN ROSTER (20) 

  • L1: Hall-Smyth-Hemsky
  • L2: Arcobello-Perron-Eberle
  • L3: Gordon-Joensuu-Yakupov
  • L4: Acton-Luke Gazdic-Brown
  • extras:
  • D1: Smid-Petry
  • D2: Ference-J Schultz
  • D3: N Schultz-Belov
  • extra:
  • SG: Devan Dubnyk
  • BG: Jason LaBarbera
  • IR: C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Sam Gagner, D Denis Grebeshkov, D Corey Potter, L Steve MacIntyre

Is there something up? 20 guys on the active roster, with Grebeshkov ready to be placed on the active list but not close to action? Hmmm.

Nuge? Trade? Waiver? Recall? Ryan Jones? Ryan Hamilton? Huh.

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107 Responses to "OILERS WAVE EAGER, GAZDIC NEW MAYOR"

  1. Racki says:

    I think it’s just to save stash away some cap space… and maybe with a slight secret hope that Ben Eager will get picked up.

    P.S., Gadzic jerseys for everybody! Pretty sure it won’t be long until the anti-enforcer crowd hates Gazdic, but that was definitely a good start to his Oiler/NHL career.

  2. RMGS says:

    It smells like a trade. Stauffer hinted as much today.

  3. Woodguy says:

    If you ever wanted to see a NHL player who couldn’t really skate it was Curt Brakenbury.

    He took more charging penalties than anyone, and back then the didn’t give out a lot of charging penalties.

    Curt needed to get up steam for about 40 feet first and once he got going he couldn’t really stop unless he hit someone.

    He also became a yachtsman who participated in world class events.

    I wonder if he married well?

  4. Woodguy says:

    The Oilers either want to rid themselves of one of their 48 contracts or want to save cap dollars wherever possible.
    The Zamboni may be waived next.

    Doesn’t Gazdic make 49?

    If Jackassalini signed this many players to the 50 man and they weren’t playing in the NHL he would have been burned in effigy by now.

    New managers eh?

    Waive!

    Sign!

    Trade!

    Wheee!!

    MacTambellini really like to sign guys.

    Needs to get rid of a few.

    I guess we’ll find out if he can sell soon.

  5. RexLibris says:

    Devils waive Alex Urbom.

    Interesting player. If the Oilers weren’t sending blueliners to OKC like Lancasters to Germany he might have proven to be a good depth player.

    If I were a rebuilding western Canadian team looking for some quality depth I might take a flier on the young man. He’s 6’3, 216 lbs, and is a roster casualty. http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=7045

  6. Woodguy says:

    In other news,

    Jason Gregor posted this paragraph today at ON:

    The best change was the Oilers willingness not to just dump the puck out and lose possession. Often they would turn back, or pass it deep into their own zone. There are certain times you dump and chase, but too often in previous years the Oilers would just hammer it off the glass into the neutral zone, or dump it in when no one was forechecking, and basically give away possession. When Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner return they should be even better at holding onto the puck.

    The worm has indeed turned.

    Excellent.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Nuge? Trade? Waiver? Recall? Ryan Jones? Ryan Hamilton? Huh.”

    I think we’ve got a lot to chew on here. Jones, Hamilton, Omark and most likely Eager will all be smelling up the Barons come tomorrow. And, as of now, it is unclear what the plan is for these guys.

    I don’t see the logic in running the team so lean (20 men), nor do I see the logic in putting a bunch of marginal NHL in the development path of whatever counts for an OKC prospect forward these days.

    My best guess is that MacT is trying to correct for all these contracts and hoping they get picked up. The only one I can see MacT wanting around for depth purposes is Hamilton at this point (favor to the coach).

    That and/or he’s working on a trade and needs to free cap space anyway he can.

    Either way, we’re in a 49 man/cap pickle and the existence of some of these players is becoming troublesome to the team and MacT is clearly trying to be “active” in finding solutions.

  8. G Money says:

    Woodguy: The worm has indeed turned.

    Excellent.

    Yes. Despite the pain of an opening night “L”, there were a lot more things to like about that opening night game than there have been in several years.

  9. LP says:

    IR: C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Sam Gagner, D Denis Grebeshkov, D Corey Potter, L Steve MacIntyre, D Denis Grebeshkov

    Grebs is apparently hurt twice.

    Interesting times.

    So far, I’m very impressed with Joensuu, thought Arcobello had to bury those pucks. And man, Smyth looked like an old man. Oh, and please, more Yakupov. Please.

    Let’s see this trade.

    Gonna be a fun year.

  10. Clarkenstein says:

    When will Darryl Katz get tired of flushing million dollar bills down the toilet? I guess as long as the revenue streams are flowing he doesn’t give a fuck. This is asset management at it worst. Textbook really. Player after player gets sent to OKC when they don’t have a snowballs chance of playing in the NHL… for anybody. And every summer it continues regardless of who the GM is. Oh well he won’t flush any of my money away.

  11. bookje says:

    Danny & LT – Things are getting worse for iPhone users. It may be the background pattern that is making it worse. Can you clear that to a plain grey for a few days. Also, its only usually a problem when a video is embedded.

  12. BlacqueJacque says:

    Clarkenstein,

    I imagine the moment the millions he’s flushing are his own and not those of the fans and unwilling citizens of a city bamboozled into a bad arena deal. $50m for a $450m+ arena and all its revenues puts him about $400m ahead. Money to burn!

  13. kooler says:

    Like to see a “JJ” type on each line, even if he didn’t drop the gloves, he came to the defense of his team……and he played some great minutes. Hall just about got killed last night, no way Smyth or Hemsky would of answered the bell…..good old days Semenko even played with 99 to deter the BS. Gazdic is a 4th liner, JJ can play 2nd or even 1st line (if Smyth can), need a couple more JJ’s on the 2nd and 3rd…too bad Eager didn’t have better hands.

  14. CDK says:

    Can anyone tell me what is going on with Curtis Hamilton? Why is he listed on the Oilers active roster without being listed on injured reserve? Is he on the roster? Does his salary count against the cap?

  15. Lowetide says:

    CDK:
    Can anyone tell me what is going on with Curtis Hamilton?Why is he listed on the Oilers active roster without being listed on injured reserve?Is he on the roster?Does his salary count against the cap?

    Hamilton is injured due to an incident last season and then surgery. So he’s on the injured list and can’t be sent down until ready.

  16. Racki says:

    kooler:
    Like to see a “JJ” type on each line, even if he didn’t drop the gloves, he came to the defense of his team……and he played some great minutes.Hall just about got killed last night, no way Smyth or Hemsky would of answered the bell…..good old days Semenko even played with 99 todeter the BS.Gazdic is a 4th liner, JJ can play 2nd or even 1st line (if Smyth can), need a couple moreJJ’son the 2nd and 3rd…too bad Eager didn’t have better hands.

    I could see him on the top line sometime soon… ideally he’d be a line 2 or 3 guy, but I’d rather have Perron where he is on line 2.. and there’s no one really better than Smyth or Joensuu for line 1. .. lesser of two evils? (not to call Joensuu incapable, but he likely isn’t a 1st line guy.. but probably no worse an option than Smytty)

  17. Lowetide says:

    Platzer with an assist early tonight 4, 4-2-6 so far this year.

  18. Oilanderp says:

    Curtis Hamilton will get about as much ice time in OKC as he does now in Edmonton they way MACheTe is waiving people.

    edit: Oh, and if I have to watch JJ scrumming it up alone while the other Oilers on the ice coast around oblivious I am going to vomit.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    CDK:
    Can anyone tell me what is going on with Curtis Hamilton?Why is he listed on the Oilers active roster without being listed on injured reserve?Is he on the roster?Does his salary count against the cap?

    This one gave me fits recently too… ha! too many really.

    As LT mentioned, he was injured late last season (apparently playing soccer before a game) and still hasn’t recovered.

    A player in TC who is injured (before or during camp) can’t be sent down and will stay on the Oiler roster (as an IR/LTIR) until he is clear to be reassigned.

    LIke all injured players, he doesn’t count against the cap.

    http://www.capgeek.com/oilers/

    More interesting was whether he gets paid an NHL or AHL salary while injured and on the big club’s roster… but I believe wheat figured out it is AHL salary based on recent games played/where.

    One lingering question is why the Oil brought him to camp at all… possibly they thought he would be cleared to play during the course of the camp.

    Lowetide:
    Platzer with an assist early tonight 4, 4-2-6 so far this year.

    Any word on how the return of Horvat and Domi are affecting his assignments?

  20. Lowetide says:

    Rom: Horvat was in the lineup, scored a PP goal. Platzer’s assist came at evens, so I suspect he’s getting less PP time but that’s a guess.

    Moroz scored again tonight, he’s 5, 4-1-5 now.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Moroz has two more, three on the night. Now at 5, 6-1-7.

  22. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    0_o

  23. Brackenburied says:

    Woodguy,

    Ah, it warms the cockles of my heart to have you wax on poetically about Brack.

  24. BlacqueJacque says:

    If the Leafs “ride percentages” to the playoffs again, is this going to cause some reevaluation among the stats crowd? Remembering the ’06 run, the Oilers got outshot in most games, but kept quality chances down. Could this be the case with the Leafs? What would thus mean for Corsi?

    Paul Ranger looks kind of rusty. Tripped Simmonds for a penalty shot, and took a weak penalty earlier.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Clarkenstein:
    When will Darryl Katz get tired of flushing million dollar bills down the toilet? I guess as long as the revenue streams are flowing he doesn’t give a fuck.This is asset management at it worst. Textbook really.Player after player gets sent to OKC when they don’t have a snowballs chance of playing in the NHL… for anybody.And every summer it continues regardless of who the GM is. Oh well he won’t flush any of my money away.

    I stopped buying season tickets after I watched them piss money away.

    I feel much better now.

  26. Racki says:

    Lowetide:
    Moroz has two more, three on the night. Now at 5, 6-1-7.

    2 of those came in the last game.. dude’s on fire… either that or the Oilers are demanding that he gets 59 minutes of ice time per game.

  27. BlacqueJacque says:

    Penguins lose Vokoun for 3-6 months with blood clots in his pelvis. Fleury’s career is thrown a life jacket.

  28. wheatnoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    LIke all injured players, he doesn’t count against the cap.

    http://www.capgeek.com/oilers/

    Just for accuracy, most injured players count against the cap. However, Hamilton doesn’t because he has a two-way contract and played no NHL games last year.

    (I’d link to the relevant capgeek page but I’m ony iPhone and I’m tempting fate posting before it crashes on me.)

  29. Woodguy says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    If the Leafs “ride percentages” to the playoffs again, is this going to cause some reevaluation among the stats crowd?Remembering the ’06 run, the Oilers got outshot in most games, but kept quality chances down.Could this be the case with the Leafs?What would thus mean for Corsi?

    Paul Ranger looks kind of rusty.Tripped Simmonds for a penalty shot, and took a weak penalty earlier.

    You misunderstand the volume of games that shot differential ideas have been based upon.

    Every game since the lockout before last.

    Over 9000 games.

    Its not like these precepts are going to be overturned in 80 games.

    Think of it this way:

    A coin will flip on either heads or tails.

    After 20 throws you have 5 heads – 15 tails.

    You know the coin isn’t rigged or weighted in any way.

    Do you now think that a coin is 25% heads and 75% tails?

    No.

    You know that if you keep flipping it will converge on 50%, because that’s what it does.

    Shot differential metrics converge on winning hockey games about 82% of the time (give or take) over a very large sample.

    That’s what it does.

    Time and time again.

  30. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy,

    I understand stats fine, thanks. 130 games would be in the neighborhood of 4000 shots, and in the mid-high 300 goals for the Leafs. Plus, they acquitted themselves well against the Bruins in the playoffs, providing a bigger challenge than the Pens and arguably anyone but the Blackhawks.

    And really, is 130 games all that much less than the magic 195 number?

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BlacqueJacque: blood clots in his pelvis

    That just sounds brutal. wow!

    wheatnoil: Just for accuracy, most injured players count against the cap. However, Hamilton doesn’t because he has a two-way contract and played no NHL games last year.

    (I’d link to the relevant capgeek page but I’m ony iPhone and I’m tempting fate posting before it crashes on me.)

    Thanks for the clarification. I bungled that one. I was thinking of the “bonus” coverage you get with LTIR players I guess, which I gather Hamilton qualifies for.

    Here’s the pages I think you wanted to post:

    http://www.capgeek.com/faq/how-does-long-term-injured-reserve-LTIR-work

    http://www.capgeek.com/faq/how-can-LTIR-cause-bonus-overages

  32. Woodguy says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    I understand stats fine, thanks.

    If the Leafs “ride percentages” to the playoffs again, is this going to cause some reevaluation among the stats crowd?Remembering the ’06 run, the Oilers got outshot in most games, but kept quality chances down.Could this be the case with the Leafs?What would thus mean for Corsi?

    Well if you understand stats, then you don’t have a base in the fundamentals of shot differential metrics or else you simply wouldn’t make that statement.

  33. wheatnoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    http://www.capgeek.com/faq/how-do-players-injured-in-training-camp-count-against-the-cap

    This is a nice link that explains the situation for players who start the year on IR. The Oilers have players in all 3 categories!

  34. wheatnoil says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Penguins lose Vokoun for 3-6 months with blood clots in his pelvis.Fleury’s career is thrown a life jacket.

    Wonder if Bryzgalov gets a call. Of course, the Pens may be satisfied with Vokoun being back for the playoffs.

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    wheatnoil:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    http://www.capgeek.com/faq/how-do-players-injured-in-training-camp-count-against-the-cap

    This is a nice link that explains the situation for players who start the year on IR. The Oilers have players in all 3 categories!

    thanks! not sure how I missed that one!

    of course, we have all three kinds! We are very good at acquiring injuries! no blood clotted pelvises yet though.

  36. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy,

    Holy shit, captain condescension, if only I’d known your sensitivities were so easily stirred by an offhand question. Pardon me as I bow and grovel at your feet, O Ye Mighty Decider of Adequate Sample Size, and beg forgiveness for being so insulting to your One and Holy Truth.

    Seriously, guy, you don’t think there might be questions worth asking if the Leafs make the playoffs despite being badly outshot in 130 games? If not, that would imply a rigid and disagreeable belief in the perfection of stats-based analysis that borders on the blind belief in the value of hitting.

  37. Brackenburied says:

    wheatnoil,

    Didn’t they just say on TSN that Bryz was going to sign for the Vegas ECHL team?

  38. RexLibris says:

    It’s almost a shame that re-entry waivers don’t exist anymore. Eager and Jones at half-salary might be enough to get them off the reserve list.

  39. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: thanks! not sure how I missed that one!

    of course, we have all three kinds! We are very good at acquiring injuries! no blood clotted pelvises yet though.

    We did have that “pubic thing” back in ’09-’10. I think we’re good for awhile now.

  40. JonyPro says:

    Why on God’s green Earth is Smyth on the 1st line? Eakins says he earned it but from what I see he doesn’t deserve it. Before Hemsky passed it to him he was winding up for a slap shot. Any goon can see that coming and know to block or do whatever is necessary. He is slow, takes silly penalties, and just doesn’t contribute enough for a 1st line winger. Hell, a line of Joensu-Hall-Hemsky would be far superior. Don’t get me wrong I love Smytty and what he has done for the Oiler franchise but a coach has to realize, as MacT would say, he is a non-factor or worse.

  41. RexLibris says:

    Saw Clemmensen was waived as well.

    Funny. I remember several years ago (2208, maybe) when he and Biron were both pending UFAs and the Oilogosphere was abuzz about which one the Oilers should pursue.

    Answer: Khabibulin.

    Aaaaand here we are today, Biron the last man standing and only just at that. Interesting how things change in this league.

  42. RexLibris says:

    JonyPro:
    Why on God’s green Earth is Smyth on the 1st line? Eakins says he earned it but from what I see he doesn’t deserve it. Before Hemsky passed it to him he was winding up for a slap shot. Any goon can see that coming and know to block or do whatever is necessary. He is slow, takes silly penalties, and just doesn’t contribute enough for a 1st line winger. Hell, a line of Joensu-Hall-Hemsky would be far superior. Don’t get me wrong I love Smytty and what he has done for the Oiler franchise but a coach has to realize, as MacT would say, he is a non-factor or worse.

    He earned it in camp and that line was very good in the preseason.

    Having said that, earning it is one thing – keeping it is something altogether different.

  43. OilFire says:

    Woodguy:
    BlacqueJacque,

    I understand stats fine, thanks.

    If the Leafs “ride percentages” to the playoffs again, is this going to cause some reevaluation among the stats crowd?Remembering the ’06 run, the Oilers got outshot in most games, but kept quality chances down.Could this be the case with the Leafs?What would thus mean for Corsi?

    Well if you understand stats, then you don’t have a base in the fundamentals of shot differential metrics or else you simply wouldn’t make that statement.

    I didn’t watch the leafs last year and have no skin in this particular game, but I think the question on the table is whether all shots are created equal. If not, the question is how to better account for it. No need to get prickly.

  44. BlacqueJacque says:

    OilFire,

    Thank you, my point exactly.

    Wg cna talk all he wants about coin tossees, but I’m confident a team of Paajarvis and O’Sullivans firing wristers from the half boards, even at 40SOG per game, would be hard-pressed to make the playoffs. Hockey isn’t a coin toss and if Carlyle and the Leafs manage to make the playoffs two years running while being down an average of 3-4 shots per game, I’m wondering if maybe there isn’t something worth investigating, not asking for the most pedantic explanation of probability this side of grade 5 math.

  45. lance says:

    Shot quality rears its ugly head again. There is no math currently allocated to such, but should it happen, there is a distinct possibility that those currently paid to evaluate players may consider examining these fancy stats accordingly. Clearly not all shots are created equal. Until that enters the equation, my interest, and the interest of others in corsi/fenwick and any associated derivative is limited at best. Or, a series of bad data points in combination rarely produce good results.

    I want to get game film shot from under the scoreboard and directly above centre ice where the angles don’t constantly change thru various forms of after the fact editing. Then I want to superimpose said film on an x,y grid and calculate individual players rate of change, shot velocity, angle to the face of the net et al, and then make something like a wave equation for each player.

    Anyone know how to get even 10 minutes of any hockey game ONLY filmed from under the scoreboard? The changing camera angles currently available make a terrible mess of things.

  46. JonyPro says:

    RexLibris,

    True enough, just saddens me watching him falter like that though….

  47. Woodguy says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Woodguy,

    Holy shit, captain condescension, if only I’d known your sensitivities were so easily stirred by an offhand question.Pardon me as I bow and grovel at your feet, O Ye Mighty Decider of Adequate Sample Size, and beg forgiveness for being so insulting to your One and Holy Truth.

    Seriously, guy, you don’t think there might be questions worth asking if the Leafs make the playoffs despite being badly outshot in 130 games?If not, that would imply a rigid and disagreeable belief in the perfection of stats-based analysis that borders on the blind belief in the value of hitting.

    I’ve conversed in very civil tones.

    You’ve been the one to derail it.

    Re-read what I’ve read, but put a dry voice on it and you’ll see that I haven’t been condescending.

    You created that perception in your head.

    I did not create it in what I wrote.

  48. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Woodguy: You misunderstand the volume of games that shot differential ideas have been based upon.

    Every game since the lockout before last.

    Over 9000 games.

    Its not like these precepts are going to be overturned in 80 games.

    Think of it this way:

    A coin will flip on either heads or tails.

    After 20 throws you have 5 heads – 15 tails.

    You know the coin isn’t rigged or weighted in any way.

    Do you now think that a coin is 25% heads and 75% tails?

    No.

    You know that if you keep flipping it will converge on 50%, because that’s what it does.

    Shot differential metrics converge on winning hockey games about 82% of the time (give or take) over a very large sample.

    That’s what it does.

    Time and time again.

    This is patently false.

    If your first 20 flips yield 5 heads and 15 tails that has no bearing or affect on any subsequent flips which remain at a 50-50 probability. There will be no regression to the mean other than pure chance.

    And, if shot differential has only an 82 percent chance of predicting outcomes, it’s actually a pretty flawed predictor and becomes even more so when it has no context such as PP opportunities, coaching style or systems.

    While common sense will tell you that teams that get more shots on goal will win more often than not, using shot differential as a proxy for scoring is about as far from definitive as you can get.

    Once again tonight, Toronto was outshot 32-25 and, yet won the game 3-1.

    If you didn’t watch the game, you likely wouldn’t know that the Flyers had 7 PP opportunities to the Leafs 2, that the Leafs have one of the best PK systems in the league or that they had a goaltender who EASILY posted a .962 save percentage.

    While I certainly agree a sample size of one game doesn’t tell you much, if that pattern of behaviour is repeated over and over, you need to pay attention to that pattern since it will tell you far more than raw shot differential.

  49. Woodguy says:

    OilFire: I didn’t watch the leafs last year and have no skin in this particular game, but I think the question on the table is whether all shots are created equal.If not, the question is how to better account for it.No need to get prickly.

    The question of whether all shots are created equal has been discussed at length often.

    The poster doesn’t seem to know the base material of what he is discussing, ie: “Remembering the ’06 run, the Oilers got outshot in most games, but kept quality chances down.Could this be the case with the Leafs?What would thus mean for Corsi?”

    When I saw that, I started with the basics (coin thing) then he got his back up.

    That’s fine, but if someone is talking about skaking and then puts the skate on their hands, wouldn’t you say “those go on your feet”?

    I told him “those go on your feet” and now I’m an asshole.

  50. Woodguy says:

    Here’s some good reading:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/3/13/4099158/kangzzz

    and another one:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/3/14/4104952/hockey-advanced-stats-corsi-intro-primer

    There are 10 sublinks in the first piece and 9 in the second.

    Make sure to read those, lots of the fundamentals in there.

  51. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy,

    Civil tones and condescending ideas still make for condescending talk. I clearly wasn’t the only one to notice or call you out on it. As I mentioned in another post, hockey isn’t a coin toss competition and a team of Paajarvis firing 40 shots on net isn’t likely to win much of anything. Given the limited conversation tonight and yet another Leaf win despite being down 10 shots, I thought I’d take the opportunity to ask if the statistical model would be open to questions should the Leafs continue their improbable run. You tried to shut down conversation with a perfunctory response and an example of statistics I am confident I first saw in elementary school.

    So yeah, I feel that was condescending.

  52. striatic says:

    RexLibris: Aaaaand here we are today, Biron the last man standing and only just at that. Interesting how things change in this league.

    I wanted Biron pretty badly at the time.

    His stats as Lundqvist’s backup have been exceptional. One of the top backups in the league. He just hasn’t ever had a chance to prove himself.

  53. magisterrex says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Woodguy,

    Holy shit, captain condescension, if only I’d known your sensitivities were so easily stirred by an offhand question.Pardon me as I bow and grovel at your feet, O Ye Mighty Decider of Adequate Sample Size, and beg forgiveness for being so insulting to your One and Holy Truth.

    Seriously, guy, you don’t think there might be questions worth asking if the Leafs make the playoffs despite being badly outshot in 130 games?If not, that would imply a rigid and disagreeable belief in the perfection of stats-based analysis that borders on the blind belief in the value of hitting.

    So…when did this place turn into Oilersnation? Did I miss the memo?

  54. Andropod says:

    How bizarre would it be if we were about to see Dubs and some defensive prospects traded for a real starting goalie? Good or bad?

  55. wheatnoil says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Woodguy,
    As I mentioned in another post, hockey isn’t a coin toss competition and a team of Paajarvis firing 40 shots on net isn’t likely to win much of anything.Given the limited conversation tonight and yet another Leaf win despite being down 10 shots, I thought I’d take the opportunity to ask if the statistical model would be open to questions should the Leafs continue their improbable run.

    You’re right that in theory, a team consisting solely of players that are excellent at breaking up defensive zone pressure, transitioning through the neutral zone and getting offensive zone entries with possession, but only take shots from the periphery with little traffic in front could potentially have a positive shot attempt differential but a poor shooting percentage and thus lose games. However, in practice, no team would actually consist of those players.

    The correlation of shot attempt differential and goal differential (and therefore winning percentage) is based on study in the actual NHL, as opposed to the theoretical NHL. So, in theory, you’re right. However, since no team would build a roster like that, it hasn’t born out in practice.

    Parkatti (I think it was him, among others) have shown that some elite players are able to sustain higher than normal shooting percentage (http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/07/18/can-players-sustain-on-ice-shooting-percentages/). For example, Crosby has been able to maintain a higher than average on ice shooting percentage year over year (in addition to higher than average shot attempt differential). However, there are 18 players on the ice and not all of them are Crosbys. Thus, shooting percentage tends to regress to the average on a team level. In theory, a team with four lines of Crosby would need need fewer shots if they maintained a higher shooting percentage to be successful. In a salary capped world, that would never happen.

    So, if Toronto maintains a poor even-strength shot differential and still ends up with surprising success, riding a high shooting percentage, the most likely answer is that their outcome is due to chance. Even if something has a 0.5% chance of happening, it’s still going to happen 1 in every 200 trials, on average. However, you’re right, it is worth looking closer at it to see if there is something that Toronto is doing that is unique to every other team in the post-lockout era. I think this is less likely, but certainly possible.

  56. striatic says:

    Andropod,

    depends entirely on the Goalie in return.

    i can’t think of any team in position to move a “Real Starting Goalie” though.

  57. striatic says:

    i mean seriously, as bad as you might think Dubnyk is, do you really want to trade him for a Cam Ward or Jaroslav Halak?

  58. Young Oil says:

    Moroz gets a hat trick, Chase, Platzer, Khaira all get goals, Yakimov and Hartikainen get an assist each in the KHL, a good day for Oiler prospects!

  59. Young Oil says:

    Also, Yakimov had 4 shots on goal in only 13:28 of ice time (which is an increase from his usual 9:41)! Impressive!

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Here’s a random (by Google standards) cross-section of articles pulled for “nhl ‘shot quality’” which is germane to the various arguments at hand (thought it might help if there was a rough framework for the discussion to move forward):

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/10/18/why-all-this-shot-quality-stuff-is-a-waste-of-time/

    http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2009/07/shot-quality-fantasy.html

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=540

    http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/07/19/shot-quality/

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-quality-matters-but-how-much

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/shot-quality

    seems like those who have tried to account for shot quality have found little evidence that it is sustainable and therefore predicative. Which… isn’t to say these folks agree with each other or that they dismiss the idea mind you.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Young Oil:
    Also, Yakimov had 4 shots on goal in only 13:28 of ice time (which is an increase from his usual 9:41)! Impressive!

    how’s slappy doing? get a point yet? or, Zharkov?

  62. Young Oil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Slepyshev has 0 points in his last 21 KHL games (dating back to last year’s playoffs) getting ~10 minutes a night, Zharkov has 2 goals in 11 games playing 8:41 a night.

    Slepyshev has also been a HS the past few games from what I can tell, unless he got injured.

  63. bookje says:

    My take on it.

    A: What time is it?

    B: It’s 1:15 PM

    A: What, how dare you, you don’t think I know that it’s afternoon, it wasn’t enough to simply say 1:15, but you had to prattle on about how ignorant I am of the general period of the day, as though I were some kind of idiot. You, good sir, have risen to a level of condescension that I have never, experienced – not in person and certainly not on the internet.

    B: What?

    A: Now you question me? Everyone saw what you did – everyone. You besmirched my good name and the name of my family!

    B: What?

    A: I demand satisfaction slap

    and so it goes into OIlersnation territory.

  64. russ99 says:

    Young Oil,

    Sounds like he’s Sleepy-shev.

    I hope MacT is working the phones for another center. We still have up to 13 more games without Nuge.

  65. Young Oil says:

    But back to Yakimov, just comparing the KHL P/60 between him and another well known KHL rookie:

    Yakimov: 3.72 P/60

    Yakupov: 3.41 P/60

    Incredibly small sample sizes I know, but we might have a gem here.

  66. Numenius says:

    wheatnoil:

    So, if Toronto maintains a poor even-strength shot differential and still ends up with surprising success, riding a high shooting percentage, the most likely answer is that their outcome is due to chance. Even if something has a 0.5% chance of happening, it’s still going to happen 1 in every 200 trials, on average. However, you’re right, it is worth looking closer at it to see if there is something that Toronto is doing that is unique to every other team in the post-lockout era. I think this is less likely, but certainly possible.

    The article below was much discussed last year on this blog (but I wasn’t quite able to find where). It presents a case for why Toronto’s success last year despite bad Corsi was not simply chance. Whether right or not, it’s certainly worth pondering.

    http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2013/07/17/an-in-depth-chat-with-associate-coach-of-the-leafs-greg-cronin/

  67. Zelepukin says:

    JonyPro: Hell, a line of Joensu-Hall-Hemsky would be far superior.

    I think this is a far more logical solution compared to Yaks with Hall and Hemsky. It’s a similar combination of skillsets to that of Chicago’s Toews, Kane, Bickell line.

    We still need to get Yaks someone that can dish the puck, which would work if Hall stayed at center once Gags and Nuge return.

    Hall – JJ – Hemsky
    Nuge – Perron – Ebs
    Gags – Yaks – Smytty ( I’d prefer Eaton or anyone else)
    Gordon – Gaz – Brown

  68. JonyPro says:

    Zelepukin: I think this is a far more logical solution compared to Yaks with Hall and Hemsky. It’s a similar combination of skillsets to that of Chicago’s Toews, Kane, Bickell line.

    We still need to get Yaks someone that can dish the puck, which would work if Hall stayed at center once Gags and Nuge return.

    Hall – JJ – Hemsky
    Nuge – Perron – Ebs
    Gags – Yaks – Smytty ( I’d prefer Eaton or anyone else)
    Gordon – Gaz – Brown

    The Oilers almost have too many talented forwards. A trade, perhaps involving a pick or two, would be huge into getting a Top 2 Defender. I honestly wince every time I see Nuge getting hit. He seems too skinny and frail to be in the NHL. As much as I like the Nuge, I think he is good trade bait.

  69. jp says:

    JonyPro:
    Why on God’s green Earth is Smyth on the 1st line? Eakins says he earned it but from what I see he doesn’t deserve it. Before Hemsky passed it to him he was winding up for a slap shot. Any goon can see that coming and know to block or do whatever is necessary. He is slow, takes silly penalties, and just doesn’t contribute enough for a 1st line winger. Hell, a line of Joensu-Hall-Hemsky would be far superior. Don’t get me wrong I love Smytty and what he has done for the Oiler franchise but a coach has to realize, as MacT would say, he is a non-factor or worse.

    Eakins had a nice quote in one of his pressers when he was asked something about the top 6 forwards. He said he didn’t like to think of a “top 6″ and that he’d prefer to turn the top 6 on its side (2 of those players on each of 3 lines). That’s why Smyth is on the 1st line – the Oilers current top 6 forwards are spread over 3 lines with Smyth, Arcobello and Joensuu trying to fit in (with varying degrees of success).

    Smyth did have an awful game though and is clearly not a “1st line” player, even with the top 6 turned on its side. With the goon squad 4th line though, Smyth is clearly among the top 9 forwards on the team . At least for now you gotta play him somewhere 14+ minutes a night, it doesn’t really matter if he’s on the line labeled “1st”.

  70. Nostradumbass says:

    JonyPro,

    Too many talented forwards??

    And I’ll never understand people who don’t understand the high side of RNH

    At the WJC he was the best defensive and offensive player amongst his peers

    If he wants an NHL body he will build one

  71. wheatnoil says:

    Numenius: The article below was much discussed last year on this blog (but I wasn’t quite able to find where). It presents a case for why Toronto’s success last year despite bad Corsi was not simply chance. Whether right or not, it’s certainly worth pondering.

    http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2013/07/17/an-in-depth-chat-with-associate-coach-of-the-leafs-greg-cronin/

    I remember that article and that discussion. Without rehashing that whole discussion, my understanding is that Cronin makes the argument that the Maple Leafs focus on quality of possession and quality scoring chances as opposed to shots. He believes the Maple Leafs can cycle the puck and wait for the best chance. Thus, their shot attempts (and shots) would be lower, but he believes they actually win the possession battle.

    Corsi is a great proxy for possession, but it is, of course, a proxy. It does not measure possession directly. There is the possibility that there are exceptions where corsi does not equate well to possession and that those exceptions are washed away in the numbers when you look at larger sample sizes.

    There are a number of issues I take with that article (and many of them were discussed in that old thread, which I have trouble finding too). However, let’s accept for a moment that Cronin’s premise is true. I suppose one way to look at this would be to actually measure the time of possession for the Leafs for the year and compare that to their corsi to see if they happen to be an exception to the corsi – possession relationship. The other thing that could be done is to measure scoring chances and see if they are losing the corsi battle but winning the scoring chance battle. Generally corsi correlates well with scoring chances, but again, there’s always possibilities for individual exceptions. I doubt the Maple Leafs are that exception, but it’s certainly possible.

    Of course, I don’t care enough about the Leafs to actually do any of that. Frankly, I just hope they make the playoffs again so that I can watch them blow an even larger lead this time! It’s just so much more fun to cheer against the Leafs than for them!

  72. Colonel Obvious says:

    Oh look, blacque jacque acts like a complete asshole, way over his head in a conversation he doesn’t understand. What a surprise.

  73. JonyPro says:

    Nostradumbass,

    I understand that he needs his speed and what not but he is still waaaaay to skinny and has yet play a full 82 games. I know he is an amazing player. I love his passing skills and puck control, they are unmatched to anyone on the Oilers. I just want him to be able to go in to the boards and not pop his shoulder out or whatever.

  74. Bulging Twine says:

    If it’s saving cap room for a trade and if it’s a goalie, it could be Ryan Miller, no? Cap hit 6,250,000

  75. VanOil says:

    JonyPro: The Oilers almost have too many talented forwards. A trade, perhaps involving a pick or two, would be huge into getting a Top 2 Defender. I honestly wince every time I see Nuge getting hit. He seems too skinny and frail to be in the NHL. As much as I like the Nuge, I think he is good trade bait.

    RNH is likely to play in the NHL at 6’1″ 185lbs this year. In 1982 a well known Oilers Center named Stan Weir played in the NHL at 6’1″ 170lbs. Are you suggesting in this form that Stan Weir was too skinny and frail to play in the NHL?

    I will spot you era effects and Nuges baby face for your confusion and I dare say that the young man might have some growing and man strength to gain. But other wise you are patently wrong.

  76. JonyPro says:

    VanOil,

    It isn’t 1982 my friend. In this era players are bigger, faster and stronger. The Nuge is a smart enough player to avoid being hit but there are always going to be times that a hit is unavoidable. Nor am I “confused” to how a players face would affect his size or strength. Plus, I am pretty sure he is only 6’0″ and even doubt those numbers. He just needs a summer to build his strength rather than being injured in the off season….but do not worry, I still love the guy as a player and person! Just worrisome…

  77. BlueNoteNorth says:

    bookje,

    A classic post. I laughed at about 82% of it.

  78. VOR says:

    I don’t want to make every thing worse but the best math in the field of what matters in determining the outcome of hockey games, research published in peer reviewed journals has demonstrated that the following things matter:

    1. luck – 50% of outcome
    2. refs behavior – 10% of outcome
    3. who knows – the obvious may be correct – which team plays better – 40%

    Corsi, fenwick, and shot % are all correlated with winning % to a very similar degree – while that hasn’t passed the peer review test it is pretty well established – an r of about .8. That said, simply because something is correlated doesn’t mean it is causative. Not to mention that simply because something applies to teams it means it applies to individuals. So even if team corsi was the beginning and the end, the super stat for teams, that wouldn’t necessarily mean that the team made up of all of last year’s top corsi players would be the best team the following year.

    I set out some time ago to prove corsi correlated with Goal Differential Per 60 for individual players. Forwards seemed to work just fine but for defencemen there was at best a very weak correlation and some years it was actually negative. Now many hockey stats people are saying the same thing – individual corsi for D men isn’t correlated with goal events of any kind for those same individual players. So that leaves open the question of how corsi can correlate to on ice goal events for one group of players on the ice (the forwards) but not for the D out there on the ice with them?

    So what I am saying, in all kindness, is those who believe in corsi (and I am one of them) should be a bit less dogmatic in their assertions. The Fenwick and Neilsen people have even weaker cases. None of these stats has been subject to structured peer review and they may not be valid tools in small sample sizes or individual cases or both.

  79. Hammers says:

    Does anyone think it might be a good idea to switch Hemsky & Yak . Hemsky on Gordons line can match up with top lines like the Sedine’s . JJ ,is big , hits and so far gets points . Yak with Hall & Smyth should work . I think its worth a try .

  80. 719 says:

    I hope a trade is in the works. Who to trade? Not sure, but Eberle or Yakupov’s skills seem redundant on our team. We could really use a Simmonds or Trouba. This trade may be bigger than just a one for one, such as three for two, with the Oilers giving up an NHL’er and some prospects for two legit NHLers.

    If MacT really wanted to get rid of Eager or Jones, he could offer them up and offer to eat half their salary. My guess is he is not doing that for salary cap reasons.

  81. Brackenburied says:

    Condescension vs Sarcasm
    Game Notes:
    The game started fairly mundanely with both teams playing nice. Then out of the blue Condescension took a beautiful shot. As is typical of Condescension they acted as though no shot had even been taken. To the surprise of many in the arena, this shot clearly riled up Sarcasm who took shot after shot after shot. Some would say too many shots. Unfortunately, despite Condescensions lone high quality shot and Sarcasms many but lower quality shots, nothing would be solved and the game would end in a draw.
    The only thing clear on the night is that Irony would kick both there asses.

  82. VOR says:

    The other problem with corsi and other drill down, analyze the crap out of it is what I like to call the red car problem.

    Lets say your task is to find $100,000. $1,000 has been left in each of 100 cars parked in a lot in which there are 900 other, non red cars. That is a pretty simple task. Many people think sabermetrics work like this problem. Good corsi – good outcome. Bad corsi – bad outcome. Red cars, non-red cars.

    Except corsi is actually more analogous to finding the $100,000 in a parking lot with all red cars. Corsi and for that matter most sabermetrics are attempts to figure out what specific shade of red indicates which car has the money and thus make the problem of finding the money easier. Except you don`t know if the money is located in 1 car or spread around amongst all of them in different amounts. Meantime cars keep coming and going from the parking lot. Maybe the money is coming and going as well. There are also a lot more than 1,000 cars and you don`t which cars are part of the group that had money placed inside and which are not.

    Notice, nobody talks about the problem of determining when a corsi differential is significant and when it is not. That is because they are all assuming any corsi differential is significant. That is they are assuming all cars are either red or not red and ignoring that the real problem is all the cars are red.

  83. Gerta Rauss says:

    719:
    I hope a trade is in the works.Who to trade?Not sure, but Eberle or Yakupov’s skills seem redundant on our team.We could really use a Simmonds or Trouba.

    I think if we’re patient enough Jake Gardiner will work his way so far into Carlyle’s doghouse that Nonis will be forced to move him out of Toronto.

    Fingers crossed anyways.

  84. Kris11 says:

    Not sure why I’m addressing Vor after our insane last encounter, but…

    “That is because they are all assuming any corsi differential is significant.”

    No, this is wrong. No one who has a good grasp of Corsi assumes this. Rather, they claim that Corsi in the aggregate is predictive of wins, and this is not an assumption, but is argued for with data.

  85. lance says:

    10 000 data points all crammed just right into a formula such that the correlation is .95 may pass in an economics class. In real science, however, 10 000 data points all containing incomplete data = a lot of incomplete data.

    By starting with actual shot measures, x,y,t (1) – x,y,t (2) we can calculate a real shot metric, we can calculate actual rate of change for skaters, response time for goalies, and all get the same answers. Actual math, not viewer subjective “data”. When two different viewers watching the same game get two different results, we don’t have science, we have econ. Or worse. poly sci.

    Are you willing to toss everything done to date and start over with quantifiable and reproducible results? If not, that’s fine, but I doubt many current GM’s will ever take any of it seriously. Certainly this armchair GM will not.

    Shot quality can be measured (EJ links aside) but only from footage that allows for xyt and simple derivatives. it has to be from one camera angle or contain incredible modulations to compensate for the changing perspectives. It cannot come from the NHL site as it stands, there are no macros able to pull numbers from existing sites and cannot be done with a slick spread sheet.

    Until this happens, I and others will humour anyone suggesting corsi or fenwick are predictive of anything except future bad habits with math.

    To be legit I really think this whole advanced math needs to start over with real non subjective data. Because no one really respects economics.

  86. Woodguy says:

    An interesting thing about the Leafs is that David Johnson found a significant amount of their shot differential drop happened when they had the lead.

    http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/09/06/is-success-partly-to-blame-for-dion-phaneufs-and-mikhail-grabovskis-poor-corsi-last-year/#comments

    He wrote that after reading this:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6259

    at Tyler’s, and then Tyler followed up with:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6263

  87. Woodguy says:

    Brackenburied:
    wheatnoil,

    Didn’t they just say on TSN that Bryz was going to sign for the Vegas ECHL team?

    God I hope so.

  88. Woodguy says:

    lance,

    You can pull shot location from the NHL data.

    Greg has set up a program to graph it as well:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/

  89. Woodguy says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Woodguy,

    Civil tones and condescending ideas still make for condescending talk.I clearly wasn’t the only one to notice or call you out on it.As I mentioned in another post, hockey isn’t a coin toss competition and a team of Paajarvis firing 40 shots on net isn’t likely to win much of anything.Given the limited conversation tonight and yet another Leaf win despite being down 10 shots, I thought I’d take the opportunity to ask if the statistical model would be open to questions should the Leafs continue their improbable run.You tried to shut down conversation with a perfunctory response and an example of statistics I am confident I first saw in elementary school.

    So yeah, I feel that was condescending.

    Everyone underestimates the role luck plays in everything, especially sports.

    The coin flip thing is a actually an elegant way to get that across.

    Everyone thinks that every win or loss has to mean something and be caused by something.

    A big part of it is luck.

  90. hags9k says:

    Eakins’ hair is elegant.

    Thanks for all those links WG, I’ll be scratching my head for a while trying to make sense of all that. Very interesting the point about leading, trailing or tied and effect on shot diff.

  91. hags9k says:

    It seems the old adage of a good offense is the best defense may be the truth. By eye we have sure seen enough last minute game tiers or game winners against when the Oil try to collapse and play the prevent. I always thought that the prevent was the winning strategy and that we just sucked at it. It seems maybe the strategy is wrong. Hopefully Eakins can get us to keep the pedal down when leading.

  92. DeadmanWaking says:

    More than twenty years ago I had a flash insight into “conflict” and it’s been on my A-list ever since, as I was reminded a week ago when I encountered Richard Dawkins: By the Book:

    Disappointing, overrated, just not good: What book did you feel you were supposed to like, and didn’t?

    “Pride and Prejudice.” It must be my prejudice, and I am not proud of it, but I can’t get excited about who is going to marry whom, and how rich they are.

    Yes, an atheist is prone to lean in this direction. But no, the man whose famous book The Selfish Gene once contained a forward by Robert Trivers ought not to be framing this dramatic setting quite so tritely.

    If genes are selfish, and a child contains only his or her parent’s genes, why do young adults disregard the will and dictates of their genetic forebears–with fatal determination in perhaps the world’s most famous play–on who they should or should not marry? Shouldn’t the young gene pay more respect to its mature self as manifest in the parental feedstock? And yet the intergenerational conflict between a gene and itself can be extremely severe.

    Furthermore, a woman who would go Lady Macbeth to discover her husband has been wildly successful sowing his wild oats behind her back will have a very different response when her own son pulls the same stunt on her mousy daughter-in-law, who she feels never really deserved a man so fine as her son in the first place. Her husband’s wild oats constitute an extreme negative on her claim to reproductive resources, whereas her son’s wild oats enhance her claim to reproductive resources in generations hence. Viewed through a Triver’s lens a woman wishes to marry a man who will pass aggressive oat-sowing genes to her male offspring, then shrewdly or shrewishly put the thumbscrews on the expression of that behaviour by the same burly oaf in the sacred confines of her own union.

    This analysis came to me in a flash one day two decades ago, and I’ve viewed human conflict differently ever since. A woman is not in principle opposed to men sowing wild oats (certainly not by her own male heirs if deftly accomplished), but she is strongly opposed to the oaf within earshot sowing his oats. This is not much stated out loud. To a woman to venture otherwise in mixed company would incur the wrath of the sorority. As women know all too well, there is no wrath like a sorority scorned. A man plays with fire contending with a single angry hornet. A woman who transgresses puts herself at the mercy of the entire hive.

    My own view on why selfish genes engage in internecine intergenerational warfare among themselves mainly trades on information asymmetry. I’m already too far afield to go there.

    Healthy conflict is essential to the health of a sexual union, but it easily tips into War of the Roses. It also tips dangerously in the direction of Remains of the Day had the butler instead married his youthful sweetheart and then remained true to his diffident nature. Guess what, guys? Conflict in marriage is a like straddling a slippery steeple. Who knew? I’ve never framed it this sharply before. This tentative foothold in my long contemplation of this subject came to me while I was digesting today’s fur-ball. On a side note, people who argue from slippery slope annoy me all to hell. Any life well-lived straddles a slippery slope. Get the fuck over it.

    Recently I had an insight about nagging. It’s quite possible to feel nagged about an issue when nagged about something where you know you are 100% in the wrong. Yet it’s still nagging. How does that work?

    Here’s how it works. It’s about memory. Nagging begins when the person nagging no longer recalls the last occasion when the issue came up, and no longer bothers to take account of the historical context. It’s the implied disengagement that makes what would otherwise be appropriate conflict or difference of opinion inflammatory.

    Cognizance of history goes a long ways toward keeping the temperature down. BJ threw a topic down for debate that’s drenched in history here, keyed on the upbeat yet slightly glib phrases “ride the percentages” and “the stats crowd”.

    The first of these is right out of the phrasebook of the gambler’s fallacy. Imagine the looks around the room at a Gamblers Anonymous meeting if some new member quipped that phrase. “The stats crowd” is redolent of a distancing move. Saying that here is like walking into an ecumenical conclave and asking how “the religious people” would react if Ted Haggard publicly flip-flopped on gayness as innate/chosen. I’m guessing the Unitarians from San Fransisco would chafe at the use of the lasso phrase “the religious” in this context. Distancing moves express contempt (that the people you address are not worthy of having their differences acknowledged), and tilt dialogue in a divisive direction.

    I understand that sensitivity in these matters is not a perfect art. Where it becomes troubling is in the absence of any sensitivity language at all. Just adding the prelude “I know this is much discussed” goes a long way.

    Woodguy has a long history here of being 82% constructive. His tendency toward dryness of tone is unmistakable to anyone who’s been a regular here for more than a few weeks. Bear in mind that 80% constitutes the virtuous plateau of meaningful engagement. It’s neither Remains of the Day (never giving offense) nor is it (normally) The War of the Roses.

    I don’t fault BJ finding Woodguy’s tone condescending. We all have different buttons and we get reactive from time to time. It does, however, make a huge difference how we handle those reactive moments when they arrive.

    Holy shit, captain condescension, if only I’d known your sensitivities were so easily stirred by an offhand question.

    Like hell you didn’t know that. The Passionate Marriage completely debunks this myth that married people fail to communicate. Married people communicate all too well. Just like you don’t know that the Gamblers Anonymous membership might flinch over “ride the percentages” or an ecumenical conclave might get testy about being lumped together as “the religious people”. In the 21′st Catholic church, there’s no such thing as an offhand remark about the sanctity of alter boys. In this corner of the Oilogosphere, there’s no such thing as an offhand remark about whether statistics wears a skirt. If you make five offhand remarks about your girlfriend’s ex, and she only bites your head off the fifth time, you’d come back with “if only I’d know your sensitivities were so easily stirred”. Come on dude, we’re not all going to play the butler to your Laertes.

    There’s a very simple way to snip the fuse. This falls under “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure”. Recently you were loudly advocating a pound of cure: LT taking a more proactive stance to banning trolls. If you don’t have the gift of snipping the fuse, I can see how this becomes one’s only recourse.

    Here’s the magic incantation: “Woodguy, I found the tone of your remark condescending. Who peed in your cornflakes this morning?” Then you can let slip the dogs of war.

    This accomplishes two critical things. First, it takes ownership of your response through the magic of the “I” word. Second, it acknowledges that we all have our moments, good and bad, blowing a thin yet vital shim of sunshine in between “that was an asshole remark” and “only an asshole would say that”.

    This is a well-documented parameter of healthy conflict: one time in five when you float something carelessly glib, your partner sticks you through the ribs with a shiv. Then if you want sex at some point in the next week, you go “Ouch! Who peed in your cornflakes?” and when you get the answer, and it has little to do with what you just said, don’t play dumb. Nine times out of ten–as much as we would prefer to pretend otherwise–the subtext of what is said and not said is engraved in flaming letters for any astute party to read. It’s generally wise to number your spouse among astute parties.

    By the time your spouse is giving you the shiv every second time you open your mouth, you’ve always got Yeats.

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Here’s a tip for Fuzzy Muppet whose future happiness hangs by a thread. Conviction begins with the word “I”. Intensity begins with the word “You”. A wedding band worth wearing would wreath itself with this fiery inscription before burning logs are traded.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy has a long history here of being 82% constructive.

    ….and 18% dink.

  94. Bos8 says:

    Well said by both. The former less pithy than the latter.

  95. godot10 says:

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle
    Perron, Gordon, Hemsky
    Joensuu, Gagner, Yakupov

    I can live with that top nine. I like them that way, but one can certainly mix and match.

  96. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Woodguy has a long history here of being 82% constructive.

    ….and 18% dink.

    One of my favorites is Steve Earle. I know most think of him as a bag of garbage but he’s a wonderfully talented guy who has survived for decades on the outskirts of show business without ever trying to adapt.

    Anyway, Earle once told the story about the period where Willie Nelson went from country singer who wrote Crazy to outlaw. Earle and his college buddies would follow Nelson around Texas when he played, smoke their brains out, sit along the wall and get lost in the strange guitar sound and the unusual lyrics.

    Meanwhile, there were still the “normal” sorts who brought their pent up rage from the work week, married it to alcohol and pretty girls plus dancing, and wanted to hear “Crazy.”

    Bottom line: the college boys, high on mary jane, got the shit kicked out of them by the boys who didn’t go home with the girls on Saturday night.

    I’ll never bet against the college men, but they’re going to take their lumps because rage.

  97. Brackenburied says:

    Wow! Sex, Drugs, and Rock n’ Roll (country style). All originating from a discussion on shot quality. Who’d a thunk it?

  98. Colonel Obvious says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    That was a pretty great post. I wanted to acknowledge that.

  99. theres oil in virginia says:

    Colonel Obvious:
    DeadmanWaking,
    That was a pretty great post.I wanted to acknowledge that.

    You might consider acknowledging this as well:

    Colonel Obvious:
    Oh look, blacque jacque acts like a complete asshole, way over his head in a conversation he doesn’t understand.What a surprise.

  100. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Woodguy:
    Woodguy has a long history here of being 82% constructive.

    ….and 18% dink.

    If a woman was 18% pregnant….

  101. theres oil in virginia says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Woodguy,
    Civil tones and condescending ideas still make for condescending talk.

    So yeah, I feel that was condescending.

    My post is not a shot at Woodguy, but I agree with the first statement above. I’m often guilty of it too, so I’m good at recognizing it.

    As someone who often throws gasoline (petrol, if you prefer) on a fire (although not here I hope), I think that posting by Blacque was intended to defuse the situation and saw it as a good sign.

  102. theres oil in virginia says:

    DeadmanWaking: Furthermore, a woman who would go Lady Macbeth to discover her husband has been wildly successful sowing his wild oats behind her back will have a very different response when her own son pulls the same stunt on her mousy daughter-in-law, who she feels never really deserved a man so fine as her son in the first place. Her husband’s wild oats constitute an extreme negative on her claim to reproductive resources, whereas her son’s wild oats enhance her claim to reproductive resources in generations hence. Viewed through a Triver’s lens a woman wishes to marry a man who will pass aggressive oat-sowing genes to her male offspring, then shrewdly or shrewishly put the thumbscrews on the expression of that behaviour by the same burly oaf in the sacred confines of her own union.

    Great post, man – really excellent!

    Doesn’t this suggest that our framework for understanding the behavior described above is faulty? Maybe a bit over-simplified? Perhaps a complex organism might have many pressures exerted on it by multiple sources (internal and external) and the behavioral outcome appear self-contradictory? Can the human mind understand itself? I try to be wary of “Richard Dawkins”-es who behave as if they’ve got it all figured out, and take the “if only the rest of you could get to where I am” approach. Conversely, the more “perspective” I gain on life, the more I realize that I don’t know shit and am not capable of understanding what little I do know (which I am sure is evident to those who bother to read what I post here!).

  103. Woodguy says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: If a woman was 18% pregnant….

    Love you!

  104. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Love you!

    Get a room you two (buy scotch and I’ll join you for cards).

  105. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: Get a room you two (buy scotch and I’ll join you for cards).

    They call that “playing cards” in Canada, huh? Learn something new every day.

  106. BlacqueJacque says:

    I feel like less of an ass having re-read this, but also more understanding of WG.

    No hard feelings, and I hope the feeling is mutual.

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