PICTURE THIS (VOL 2)

The Oilers are 1-6-1 now, but two years ago they went 6-2-2 during October and there was a lot of turnaround talk. Credit this blog and its commenters, we weren’t fooled then and I don’t think we’re going to be fooled now.

The article from October of 2011 is here, and some of the comments I made were:

  • We all know this can’t continue. I mean, come on. The Edmonton Oilers can’t go from 30th times two and land in the penthouse 10 games later. It isn’t possible
  • Let’s remember that this team is being outshot 255-298 in the first 10 (including 38-76 in the last two wins) and luck (good already here, bad moon rising), the Hockey Gods and more injuries are just around the corner. Drink deep, but be real.

And here are some of your comments:

  • Dennis: It’s nice to get the win but I need to see results that are bought and paid for before I get excited.
  • “Steve Smith”: I’m loving this. But I’ll take the under on 90 points as the end-season total (they’re currently on pace for 115).
  • Delooper: The Oilers are only a few defensive injuries away from total bedlam and lopsided losses. But the team is hugely improved off previous years.
  • Woodguy: The wild card is Khabby of course. He has a history of not being a good in the last few years and a wonky back. Perhaps he was hung up in his cell like Gene Wilder in Stir Crazy and it fixed his back? Worked for Gene.
  • Black Dog: We’ll enjoy this and enjoy the fact that unless Tambo blows it the future looks pretty bright. The next few weeks are going to be a tough slog so lets hope the goaltending continues to be very good and that some guys can began to produce offensively to offset the likely regression defensively.
  • DSF: It’s all unsustainable goaltending. Enjoy it for now though.
  • bookje: I think this is a borderline playoff team. If they make the playoffs and get .987 goaltending, then plan the parade.

A fun thread, worth the read and I do believe we had the truth surrounded.

As for this season, well we’re just into the year so we don’t know for sure what’s true and what is illusion. Two years ago this Oiler team had played 10 games, had been outshot 255-298 and owned 14 points home and dry. Tonight, the current Oilers have played 8 games and have three points, and have been outshot 228-238. Their 5×5 Corsi % is 48.6%–up from 44.6% one year ago. These are encouraging signs, this is a team with something to build on, and despite the record I’d suggest this season is not lost yet. There’s a large amount of luck in any season, and the dice have no memory. The Oilers could experience a series of maladies that lay waste to an entire season, but if we’re to believe things balance out over time then there are good arrows despite the 1-6-1.

What say you this time, friends?

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106 Responses to "PICTURE THIS (VOL 2)"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wooo! new thread!! that last one was getting irksome (my bad).

  2. "Steve Smith" says:

    I say that I was wildly optimistic with my over/under.

    (They finished with 74 points.)

  3. Logan91 says:

    I predict the Oil with 42 wins this season.

  4. TheOtherJohn says:

    Are you inquiring as to the number of different ways we can be a lottery team? Lord let the boys rebound

  5. FastOil says:

    You can’t handle the truth!

    Realistically out of the playoffs soon. Lots of howling in the MSM and, um, less refined corners of the oilogosphere until those who don’t like stats are forced to stop thinking playoffs because of mathematical elimination, and begin full on player and coaching character attacks.

    Decent goaltending, a slow and steady move to stable system play. Hopefully MacT learns a few things and gets some holes filled and the roster balanced in a reasonable way before next year.

    My hope is by the end of the season they are poised to get off on a decent foot next year and get into the post season, and can play well enough as a team to be taken seriously. At that point anything can happen.

  6. Numenius says:

    Eakins said they noticed that whoever plays with Ebs gets going, and that’s why he’s putting him with Yak.

    Hope that’s true.

    Take that Ebs-traders (Ebs-traitors?).

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    If we go by Dellow’s 3 game rolling corsi idea (he may have this up already), as we approach game 9, I thought it might be interesting to review the short game stretches (all 5×5):

    Games 1-3
    CF 112; CA 112 50%

    Games 4-6
    CF 127; CA 131 49.2%

    Games 7-8
    CF 69; CA 84 45.09%

    So… we sawed off exactly the first span; barely lost the second; and, are headed toward trouble in the 3rd span unless we really have an exceptional game. We need to better the Sens by 15 CF events to break even on the span.

  8. Lowetide says:

    "Steve Smith": Decent goaltending, a slow and steady move to stable system play. Hopefully MacT learns a few things and gets some holes filled and the roster balanced in a reasonable way before next year.

    Meh. That was a helluva start. It really was. I think betting under 90 points after that start flew in the face of most of the fanbase.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    If we go by Dellow’s 3 game rolling corsi idea (he may have this up already), as we approach game 9, I thought it might be interesting to review the short game stretches (all 5×5):

    Games 1-3
    CF 112; CA 112 50%

    Games 4-6
    CF 127; CA 131 49.2%

    Games 7-8
    CF 69; CA 8445.09%

    So… we sawed off exactly the first span; barely lost the second; and, are headed toward trouble in the 3rd span unless we really have an exceptional game. We need to better the Sens by 15 CF events to break even on the span.

    Tyler’s rolling three’s are 1-3, 2-4, 3-5, etc. But your point is a strong one. I do think we need to factor in road games–that was going to be a big test and frankly I’m pleased so far. This Oiler team has a lot of nice things despite the warts.

  10. Racki says:

    Oh man, please have a good game tomorrow. This team hasn’t been as bad as the standings appear…. not great, no, but definitely not 1-6-1 bad (on the whole, anyways).

    I still think they really need a goalie on par or better as Duby to pair up with him, and also still need some sort of standout defenseman. I’m also losing faith in the ability of Eakins and the coaches to teach the swarm. Not saying that it is a bad system or Eakins is a bad coach (I like both, actually)… just not sure these guys are going to get it before severely tailspinning in the standings. I’m kind of just wanting them to go back to the basic zone D, since every hockey player understands it. I do like that the swarm has (seemingly) improved their ability to breakout of the zone when they have the puck. However, I very much dislike that guys have left players hanging around by themselves in dangerous scoring positions.

    It seems too that the other team is managing to capitalize on those great chances more often than not.

    Things might right themselves if we just stay the course, but the skeptic in me fears that things will drop too far down before they finally start getting results. Not even November yet, and it’s hard not to think there will be no playoffs yet again. I didn’t expect there would be, but I wanted at least the illusion / glimmer of hope.

    There are some positives this year though.. the new guys? Love ‘em. To the clone bay with Perron, Belov and Gordon!

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Tyler’s rolling three’s are 1-3, 2-4, 3-5, etc. But your point is a strong one. I do think we need to factor in road games–that was going to be a big test and frankly I’m pleased so far. This Oiler team has a lot of nice things despite the warts.

    ah. that’s interesting, overlapping rolls!

    On first read all that while ago, that tidbit didn’t make it into the old nugget.

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6356

    I wonder what the argument for overlapping is… larger sample size, I gather. I wonder if using a single piece of data (from game 3 on to game 79) 3 times over has a negative value?

  12. godot10 says:

    The soundtrack inside LT’s head:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q

    Lucy is going to pull away the football. In fact, I’m pretty sure the football is

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYCPccFQHWA

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    animals strike curious poses

  14. Lowetide says:

    Omark (Pitlick, Lander) 1-0 OKC.

  15. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I wonder what the argument for overlapping is… larger sample size, I gather. I wonder if using a single piece of data (from game 3 on to game 79) 3 times over has a negative value?

    Larger sample size is potentially one reason.

    The other could be for noise reduction. In signal processing terms this technique is called a “box filter” – by using the box filtered data instead of the raw data, you get less noise. Useful for finding a low(er) frequency signal amidst high frequency noise. Similar (but not exactly the same as) a moving average in stock prices.

  16. dessert1111 says:

    Davidson a HS again for OKC, wonder what’s going on there? Maybe a question for one of the tend the farm people next time you have one on your show, LT.

  17. Lowetide says:

    dessert1111:
    Davidson a HS again for OKC, wonder what’s going on there? Maybe a question for one of the tend the farm people next time you have one on your show, LT.

    The HS is usually a rotation thing, suspect Davidson draws in next game.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Wrote an article about Taylor Fedun over at ON btw

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/10/18/armalite-rifle

  19. D says:

    There were a few articles in the late summer comparing the Oilers’ rebuild to the Islanders’ and Nordiques’ of the past. Essentially the conclusion was that the Oilers had to make their jump this season and be close to the playoffs, otherwise the team would be into infinibuild Atlanta Thrashers territory.

    I’ll reserve judgment regarding the current losing streak, but if the Oilers are not near .500 by January 1st, 2014, then we’re in serious trouble. And I will say it again, you cannot bring in an executive who couldn’t make it with the Vancouver Canucks and expect them to build a winner here. A successful businessman like Katz should have known better.

  20. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Who was that DSF guy in the old thread?

    Man, did he ever nail it.
    :)

  21. Lowetide says:

    Dead Cat Bounce:
    Who was that DSF guy in the old thread?

    Man, did he ever nail it.:)

    Yes. Yes he did.

  22. Lowetide says:

    Omark (Larsen, Pitlick) Pitlick now 6, 1-2-3 but one suspects Omark (6, 3-1-4) is driving the bus.

  23. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Paajarvi playing again tonight for STL.

    3:53 TOI in the 1st period.

    And he got a shot on goal!

    Alas, his shooting percentage is zero.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Omark goal from OKC game courtesy Eric Rodgers

    http://instagram.com/p/foRwlwg0G9/#

  25. Lowetide says:

    Nesbitt (Lander, Omark) 3-0 Barons. Nelson has figured this thing out. He’s a helluva coach.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Omark goal from OKC game courtesy Eric Rodgers

    http://instagram.com/p/foRwlwg0G9/#

    Wow!

    that’s a helluva goal. Omark seems to have found his soul again.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Lander (Omark, Nesbitt)

  28. gcw_rocks says:

    Lowetide,
    Nesbitt (Lander, Omark) 3-0 Barons. Nelson has figured this thing out. He’s a helluva coach

    To bad he wasn’t available when the Oilers decided to change coaches. Be nice to have a coach that understands strategy and adapts his strategy to the strengths of his players. Oh wait, he was available, but you know, because Oilers.

  29. Nuckout says:

    First post on the site. Intelligent hockey conversation without the troll gallery is hard to come by.

    Just the fact that we see SOME improvement over stats is a good indicator that this team may be able to challenge for an 8 seed this year. I can see it happening, but first the team needs a couple of good character wins to get over the hump.. This team needs to get down, dirty, gritty, and get pucks to the net if they are going to win.

    The next couple of games aren’t going to be pretty, even if they’re wins.

  30. Lowetide says:

    Moroz with an early goal, his 10th in 11th game of the season.

  31. Andropod says:

    Lowetide:
    Nesbitt (Lander, Omark) 3-0 Barons. Nelson has figured this thing out. He’s a helluva coach.

    Nelson would likely figure out the Oil pretty quick too. No wonder he was so pissed at ChickenHawk getting the job.

    But its not going to happen, Dallas will right the ship long before he runs out of rope, right?

  32. kinger_OIL says:

    That Eakins wasn’t picked by the Leafs as head coach after Wilson was punted was a big tell. The Leafs, “win now” meant that they went with someone with a track record. Plus management not giving him carte-blanche to pick his assistant coaches another tell. There is nothing wrong with doubting the veracity of my claims about Eakins being an arrogant prick, but unless Eakins can eat some humble pie, and let players play this team is in trouble. Here’s my probability chart: Make the playoffs: 12%. Play .500 for the rest of the season (say 80 points for season): 40%. Play over .600 hockey rest of season, 15%. Lottery team: 15%. Somewhere between 74 and 85 points: is where I see them. On an over under of 83, I take under. Over 86 points and OIL should be estatic: that gives a slight hope and prayer with a month left. Maybe Mac-hey-I-have-3- 9′s, what-do-you-guys-have-T gets a trade in that alters those numbers…

  33. Ice Sage says:

    kinger_OIL:
    That Eakins wasn’t picked by the Leafs as head coach after Wilson was punted was a big tell.The Leafs, “win now” meant that they went with someone with a track record.Plus management not giving him carte-blanche to pick his assistant coaches another tell. There is nothing wrong with doubting the veracity of my claims about Eakins being an arrogant prick, but unless Eakins can eat some humble pie, and let players play this team is in trouble.Here’s myprobability chart:Make the playoffs: 12%.Play .500 for the rest of the season (say 80 points for season): 40%. Play over .600 hockey rest of season, 15%.Lottery team: 15%.Somewhere between 74 and 85 points: is where I see them.On an over under of 83, I take under.Over 86 points and OIL should be estatic: that gives a slight hope and prayer with a month left. Maybe Mac-hey-I-have-3- 9′s, what-do-you-guys-have-T gets a trade in that alters those numbers…

    Oh and I always thought Burke just brought his old bud Carlyle in…
    All good coaches are ‘arrogant pricks’

  34. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Nesbitt (Lander, Omark) 3-0 Barons. Nelson has figured this thing out. He’s a helluva coach.

    MacT didn’t interview him for the head coaching job. Hired the 2nd guy he talked to. The smartest man in the room.

  35. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    Moroz with an early goal, his 10th in 11th game of the season.

    How big of a deal is this LT? From here, it looks pretty big, but I don’t really have a feel for these junior leagues and PP push, etc, etc.

  36. knighttown says:

    I get that they didn’t get the results they deserved over this stretch however, this stretch is gone so we need to assess what they should get over the next stretch. The thing is, they’ve still been out Corsi’d by really weak competition. And not only weak but also the types of teams the Oilers usually match up well with (Chicago, Toronto, Montreal tree vs. LA, St Louis, Vancouver tree).

    Even if their PDO normalizes, I think their mediocre Corsi numbers against middling opposition means still below .500 results over the next segment.

    PDO increase + Corsi decrease = middling results

  37. godot10 says:

    The Oilers still play mostly Eastern Conference teams till Christmas. January is crunch time. All those homes games after the Olympics will be like the Bataan death march if the Oilers aren’t close.

  38. knighttown says:

    If you made a list of major concerns (and I’m sure you did) it would be:

    1. The centre position:
    -Nuge came back earlier than anticipated and has been excellent, productive and is getting a ton of minutes.
    - Gordon has been as good as advertised defensively and is/was leading the team in goals.
    -Acton has been fine. The 4th line is about even in traditional +/- and he’s good in the circle. They don’t play much anyway.
    -Arcobello has been one of the surprises of the season in the entire NHL.

    2. Faceoffs:
    Someone we’ve gone from the worst in the NHL to a Top 5 team and it’s all of the centres that are having success.

    3. 5×5 scoring:
    The Oilers have jumped from 25th to 13th this season and really, only Yakupov can be said to be struggling offensively. We’ve gotten better than anticipated from Hemsky and Perron and a truly out-of-nowhere performance from Arcobello. We now have balanced, 3 line scoring.

    So while I’m with Tyler when he preaches patience because of Dubnyk and the special teams, we could easily see a leak spring up somewhere else.

  39. knighttown says:

    Conversation with a knowledgeable Bruins fan.

    (Me) Truly shocked at the Oilers start. Can a team with this much talent really be this bad.

    (Him) Goaltending and defense are brutal!

    (Me) About that. Defense. We seem to be playing Ference in around the 3-5 slot. That can’t be far off where he played in Boston? Petry is our #1 and the rest seem to be no better or no worse than Ference. I get that we don’t have a Chara but I have to think the rest of our core (Smid, Schultz, Schultz, Belov) matchup pretty reasonably with Boychuck, Seidenberg, McQuaid and Krug?

    (Him) I said defense not defensmen. Your defensemen aren’t that bad. Maybe league average because you don’t have a true #1. Your forwards are unbelievably bad compared to what I’m used to watching. Watch Patrice. Watch Loui. Watch Krejci. Watch Danny Paille and Chris Kelly. They aren’t flashy but they play nearly perfectly safe hockey.

    (Me) hmmm…

  40. Bank Shot says:

    Nuckout:
    First post on the site. Intelligent hockey conversation without the troll gallery is hard to come by.

    Just the fact that we see SOME improvement over stats is a good indicator that this team may be able to challenge for an 8 seed this year. I can see it happening, but first the team needs a couple of good character wins to get over the hump.. This team needs to get down, dirty, gritty, and get pucks to the net if they are going to win.

    The next couple of games aren’t going to be pretty, even if they’re wins.

    The Oilers have just put themselves in a situation where they need to go something like 40-20-10 in the remaining games in order to make the dance.

    There is zero room now for any inconsistency. Do you think a 48% corsi team can do that?

    Looks like the dream is already over.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Nuckout:
    First post on the site. Intelligent hockey conversation without the troll gallery is hard to come by.

    Just the fact that we see SOME improvement over stats is a good indicator that this team may be able to challenge for an 8 seed this year. I can see it happening, but first the team needs a couple of good character wins to get over the hump.. This team needs to get down, dirty, gritty, and get pucks to the net if they are going to win.

    The next couple of games aren’t going to be pretty, even if they’re wins.

    Welcome!

  42. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: How big of a deal is this LT?From here, it looks pretty big, but I don’t really have a feel for these junior leagues and PP push, etc, etc.

    Well, he should be dominating, but I had him pegged for 25 this season. He has 10 in 11. So that’s really ahead of the curve.

  43. RexLibris says:

    In the old conference/divisional system I think the Oilers might have had a chance to make the playoffs.

    Under the new system it is still too soon to tell what will happen. Who knows, maybe the sun starts going around the earth and the Flames make the playoff cut line.

    The Oilers? At this point, probably miss the playoffs but get within hailing distance. Back to middle country, no post-season and no high pick.

    Who knows, we can always hold out hope for a 50-12 run.

  44. iHockeyWpg says:

    14 minutes ago
    @DarrenDreger: Reading old tweets. Mistake. Hey @dantencer. If you’re so concerned with my opinion or information, next time call for some context.

    Looks like Millhouse gets knocked down a peg once again.

  45. kinger_OIL says:

    Its ok to be an arrogant prick if you back it up like Belichick, (untill he starts losing!), but LaRussa, Sparky, Cox, Landry, Shula, Walsh, Phil Jackson, Riley, Bowman, Arbour, Hitchcock even Slats, and on and on: they were great because they figured out how to maintain working relationships with players and team organizations. Keenan, just one example of what I am trying to communicate with my comment about Eakins being an arrogant prick, was an arrogant prick that couldn’t figure out the role of a coach, and consequently was not able to stick long term as a coach on any team, but had a Cup on his resume that kept him employed. I don’t want one Cup! Eakins won’t last long unless he figures that out, and players have told me that he is an arrogant prick. That works in controlled environments like AHL or College Sports when you have the hammer on kids careers, but not in the pro ranks. It just sucks that we had to get a coach that we are hoping will figure it out, but you can’t be an arrogant prick for long when your team isn’t winning: players will tune out. Don’t hate on me because I have a non-media perspective on our man Dallas.

  46. Racki says:

    iHockeyWpg:
    14 minutes ago
    @DarrenDreger: Reading old tweets. Mistake. Hey @dantencer. If you’re so concerned with my opinion or information, next time call for some context.

    Looks like Millhouse gets knocked down a peg once again.

    Not to play Millhouse’s advocate here, but isn’t this over Dreger tweeting: “Per Darren Dreger, Leafs wouldn’t (hypothetically) take Yakupov for Reimer straight up. Is there REALLY that much concern about Yak? Crazy.” or was it something else? It’s not like Tencer was trashing Dreger’s opinion.. was just saying that the idea of the Leafs no ttaking Yak for Reimer was crazy (or more specifically, the image of Yak had dropped so low and so quickly that it was crazy). We all reacted the same way. Pretty sure everyone outside of the center of the hockey universe thought that way. No need for Dreger to get his shorts in a bunch.

    Or was it about something else?

  47. Racki says:

    I guess Tencer also wrote a couple articles related to Yak’s being undervalued too that maybe Dreger took as Tencer targeting him (which might have been the case, I don’t know). Still curious what the context was of Dreger’s comment.. I assume that was based on his view of how Nonis et al valued either Yak or Reimer (not his own opinion). That’s how I took it when I initially read the comment.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Racki:
    I guess Tencer also wrote a couple articles related to Yak’s being undervalued too that maybe Dreger took as Tencer targeting him (which might have been the case, I don’t know). Still curious what the context was of Dreger’s comment.. I assume that was based on his view of how Nonis et al valued either Yak or Reimer (not his own opinion). That’s how I took it when I initially read the comment.

    My guess is that Dreger (a reporter) talked to one or more hockey people who felt that way. I’m inclined to beleive that”s the case, because there’s no other reason for Dreger to mention it. He hasn’t spent the last decade making calls on 20-year old players, so his words (imo) reflect stated opinion of others.

    THOSE opinions are worth questioning, and I would very much like to the motives behind it.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: @dantencer

    I read this the same way. Tencer merely quoted Dreger:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/10/17/tencer-underestimating-the-value-of-nail-yakupov/

    Dreger is either going out of his way to bluster to back out of his ridiculous words, or he’s going out of his way to separate himself from the shitshow that is putting Yak so low.

    At any rate, this is all a pointless exercise. Why on earth would MacT consider that trade. It’s absurd.

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    So Omark got 4 points (2-2-4) on the night. But wow did they get outshot in the 3rd!! 22-4 shots in the 3rd for the heat.

    lander 3 points as well.

    Larsen with 4 shots. led the team.

    http://theahl.com/stats/game-summary.php?game_id=1011157

  51. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jets come back from down two to beat the Blues in shootout. good for them.

    Looks like something ugly happened to trouba though. didn’t see it.

  52. art vandelay says:

    About the same time the Oilers were improbably leading the West, the Loafs were atop the East, with the dfending Cup champion Bruins in the basement. The Loafs loaded up the Bankrupt Airlines Centre scoreboard with those standings during the intermission of a HNIC game v those Bruins.
    Standings in October don’t mean too much.
    That’s worth remembering right now for Loafs fan AND Oilers fans.

  53. Racki says:

    Lowetide: My guess is that Dreger (a reporter) talked to one or more hockey people who felt that way. I’m inclined to beleive that”s the case, because there’s no other reason for Dreger to mention it. He hasn’t spent the last decade making calls on 20-year old players, so his words (imo) reflect stated opinion of others.

    THOSE opinions are worth questioning, and I would very much like to the motives behind it.

    Are you suggesting that Toronto-folks are posturing to build up Reimer / downplay Yakupov enough that MacTavish would be fooled into thinking he should offer Yakupov plus for Reimer (or even just straight across)? I’m not sure what other motives there could be behind something like this. Or perhaps Toronto would be hoping to convince the rest of the hockey world that Yakupov is terrible and not worth trading for, then move in and trade for him without competition.

  54. "Steve Smith" says:

    art vandelay:
    Standings in October don’t mean too much.
    That’s worth remembering right now for Loafs fan AND Oilers fans.

    Isn’t that the opposite of what you’ve been saying so far? I mean, it’s correct, but that’s not usually your style.

    (By all of which I of course mean “Hi, Art!”)

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jesus Christ! this is hard to watch.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyty0IavHXU

    Trouba incident. freak event. hope he’s ok.

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: Are you suggesting that Toronto-folks are posturing to build up Reimer/ downplay Yakupov enough that MacTavish would be fooled into thinking he should offer Yakupov plus for Reimer (or even just straight across)? I’m not sure what other motives there could be behind something like this. Or perhaps Toronto would be hoping to convince the rest of the hockey world that Yakupov is terrible and not worth trading for, then move in and trade for him without competition.

    I think he’s suggesting that there is no malicious, cynical intent, i.e., people are just that stupid.

  57. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think he’s suggesting that there is no malicious, cynical intent, i.e., people are just that stupid.

    Hah, damn it.. now I look stupid for reading into that. Although I didn’t actually think that until he brought it up. *red face*

    Distraction tactic… why didn’t I notice I had Center Ice preview waiting for me hidden in the 350- channel range??

  58. Lowetide says:

    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis 42s

    #Oilers / #OKCBarons Ryan Martindale will undergo knee surgery. Out 4-6 weeks.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis 42s

    #Oilers / #OKCBarons Ryan Martindale will undergo knee surgery. Out 4-6 weeks.

    Where the hell did that come from?

    That draft class of forwards (after Hall) is cursed.*

    *Please let us have nice (Pitlick) things.

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: why didn’t I notice I had Center Ice preview waiting for me hidden in the 350- channel range??

    OEL playing right now. always a treat to watch.

  61. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: OEL playing right now. always a treat to watch.

    Hmm, I wonder if the Leafs would trade Reimer straight up for him.

  62. TheGreatMutato says:

    Could be worse – I could be a Dodgers fan watching the game right now.

    Oh wait, shit.

  63. Young Oil says:

    It doesn’t seem like Khaira is playing for Everett tonight…anyone know if it’s a HS or an injury?

    http://www.whl.ca/schedule/show/game/65522

  64. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: Hmm, I wonder if the Leafs would trade Reimer straight up for him.

    hahaha…. Kovalchuk would be a better comparable (back in his early days). I fondly recall Lansky referring to Kovalchuk as a failed* 1st OV based purely on Russian fumes.

    Swedes and OEL specifically get more credit.

    *he may not have used the word “failed”… can’t recall the exact word, but it was definitely negative and deeply absurd.

  65. Andropod says:

    Racki: Hmm, I wonder if the Leafs would trade Reimer straight up for him.

    I thought Reimer got concussed last night?

  66. Young Oil says:

    In other news, Platzer was the only plus player on the Knights tonight…does anyone have TOI stats for the OHL? Because it seems somewhat ambiguous if Platzer’s drop off in point production is due to less time on ice due to Horvat and Domi coming back, or less quality linemates, or just a slump…he actually looked quite good in the rookie games and preseason, it’d be nice if we had a player there.

    Yakimov is having the same drop off in production, but he is getting only 9:30 a game, likely with poor linemates (I can’t confirm this). That can’t be ideal for his development as a player.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Young Oil:
    It doesn’t seem like Khaira is playing for Everett tonight…anyone know if it’s a HS or an injury?

    http://www.whl.ca/schedule/show/game/65522

    I asked on a live blog here:

    http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20131018/BLOG12/131019833

    got this answer:

    “Reported as “upper-body.” Didn’t make the trip.”

    so injured. crap.

  68. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: hahaha…. Kovalchuk would be a better comparable (back in his early days). I fondly recall Lansky referring to Kovalchuk as a failed* 1st OV based purely on Russian fumes.

    Swedes and OEL specifically get more credit.

    *he may not have used the word “failed”… can’t recall the exact word, but it was definitely negative and deeply absurd.

    True, I’m just learning how this whole undervaluing the crap out of a player works… :P Swedes good, Russians bad. Got it. There don’t appear to be any Russians for the Leafs to deny trades for in this game.

    Andropod: I thought Reimer got concussed last night?

    He did have his bell rung, and my post was tongue in cheek.. but I think I heard he was practicing already, not that this is matters to my stupid joke.

  69. Racki says:

    Young Oil:
    In other news, Platzer was the only plus player on the Knights tonight…does anyone have TOI stats for the OHL? Because it seems somewhat ambiguous if Platzer’s drop off in point production is due to less time on ice due to Horvat and Domi coming back, or less quality linemates, or just a slump…he actually looked quite good in the rookie games and preseason, it’d be nice if we had a player there.

    Yakimov is having the same drop off in production, but he is getting only 9:30 a game, likely with poor linemates (I can’t confirm this). That can’t be ideal for his development as a player.

    If I’m not mistaken, I don’t think you can find any of the CHL TOI listed anywhere.

  70. Racki says:

    Oh man, this looks bad…

    Here’s the Jacob Trouba injury:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyty0IavHXU

    Hopefully he’ll be OK… he’s looked like a hell of a d-man vs. the Oilers that one game (not that this is hard to do, but still).

    Edit: oops, sorry, Romulus way ahead of me on that one.

  71. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki: True, I’m just learning how this whole undervaluing the crap out of a player works… Swedes good, Russians bad. Got it. There don’t appear to be any Russians for the Leafs to deny trades for in this game.

    He did have his bell rung, and my post was tongue in cheek.. but I think I heard he was practicing already, not that this is matters to my stupid joke.

    IIRC LT is actually a big Kulemin fan.

  72. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Same guy had this to say about Betker: “And I think Betker had played well so far. From an NHL perspective he’s a bit of a project, but at 6-6 he’s tough to get around.”

    Of course, you could read that as… he is tough to get around, or it is tough for him to get around.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I asked on a live blog here:

    http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20131018/BLOG12/131019833

    got this answer:

    “Reported as “upper-body.” Didn’t make the trip.”

    so injured. crap.

    Thanks for this, was wondering myself.

    Ted Wyman ‏@Ted_Wyman 6m

    Good to hear Jacob Trouba seems to be doing fine. Was scary moment for everyone. #NHLJets

  74. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    To your question LT, playoffs now seem highly unlikely. Said bluntly, it isn’t in the cards this year. Statistically, the W/L balance needed for the remainder of the year does not gel with this talent mix and experience level. Additionally, as we move through the season and the top flight teams tighten their systems, there is scant low hanging fruit for the Oilers to pick off. They will be pushed to the periphery. But it is a maturation year – no longer rebuilding. Tough trades need to happen and the players for tomorrow (like Klefbom) need to cycle in over the year to get some seasoning. Systems need to be accepted and honed.

    I didn’t have any illusions of what making the playoffs meant. It would be a swift kick in the junk in round one but a very worthy exercise in exposure. We will come up short on that, but i hope we spend every shift fighting for it and using that time (and asset base) to prepare for tomorrow. I hate to say it, we just have more runway in front us before liftoff. This is painfully long to endure.

  75. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    haha, proper grammar would suggest the author meant the former.. but it’s possible there is truth in both statements.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    More: “Nick Patterson: Whatever’s wrong with Khaira, it isn’t serious. He isn’t listed on the injury report, and he took part in practice yesterday, though on a limited basis.”

  77. Young Oil says:

    Racki: If I’m not mistaken, I don’t think you can find any of the CHL TOI listed anywhere.

    I’m checking around and can’t find it…went to the OHL and CHL websites, didn’t see anything.

    http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/schedule/show/game/66298
    http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/roster/show/id/9455
    http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/stats/show/type/skaters/ls_season/49/ls_team/14

    Those are the only three links for game/player stats that I could find, none have TOI…thanks for your advice though!

  78. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: IIRC LT is actually a big Kulemin fan.

    Yes, like Kulemin a lot. Would love to have him on LW behind Hall and Perron.

  79. Clay says:

    Because the Oilers are the Oilers, I think that the positive fancy stats are just as likely to be an aberration as the W/L column from this time 2011. And no, I’m not trolling – I’ve been conditioned to think this way because Oilers.

  80. Racki says:

    Tristan Jarry earns a shutout.. 4-0 over Red Deer.

    Lazar with a couple goals. Moroz with one, as LT already mentioned. Reinhart the other.

  81. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    these Everett guys were pretty interested in Wilson’s Corsi tracking of Mueller. in case anyone missed it in the Summer, very interesting:

    http://www.fearthefin.com/2013/7/31/4575152/sharks-use-corsi-to-evaluate-junior-players-brian-gross-mirco-mueller-analytics

  82. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    these Everett guys were pretty interested in Wilson’s Corsi tracking of Mueller. in case anyone missed it in the Summer, very interesting:

    http://www.fearthefin.com/2013/7/31/4575152/sharks-use-corsi-to-evaluate-junior-players-brian-gross-mirco-mueller-analytics

    That’s good stuff. I’m glad we’re starting to hear about the Oilers paying more attention to these sorts of things too. I wonder if they do anything like this at all when it comes to amateur scouting. I wonder how many teams also do this. And I also wonder if the Sharks were doing this last year in Europe too, as Hertl is looking like a brilliant pick, even though it really wasn’t a reach.

    You know what, we have 23 cups in our dressing room and each player has one.

    LOL if that means what I assume it does.

  83. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I asked these Everett guys if the CHL has any plans to track TOI. Here’s the answer:

    “there’s things that will come before that, including individual shots on goal. So I wouldn’t hold my breath.”

    looks like it will take more Wilsons pulling a top-down approach, or bloggers pulling a bottom-up approach to bring more relevant stats to junior hockey for scouting purposes.

  84. Racki says:

    Oh damn, I hadn’t even noticed that they weren’t even tracking individual shots.

  85. Racki says:

    P.S., I feel like Craig MacTavish, the last helmetless player in the NHL… time to get on this whole Corsi bandwagon, it seems… as you have to figure the Sharks are doing a lot of things right, even if they haven’t won a cup yet.

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki:
    Oh damn, I hadn’t even noticed that they weren’t even tracking individual shots.

    hadn’t noticed either. There a ton I don’t know about jr. hockey.

    ———
    Looks like this Everett team isn’t very good. Probably means Kharia gets a lot of time and space on the team.

    These guys all seems to like Constantine and he sounds like a bit of hardass. I bet him and Eakins would get along and no one would call them pricks ;)

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    If anyone else just saw that Bonino goal… strange! over the head of Penner in the slot, takes a sharp nose dive into the net.

    I think there’s been an extraordinary number of weird goals early this season.

  88. Dominoiler says:

    Some nice goals / dekes in the shoot out of that Phx Ana game (but yeah, that Bonino goal is crazy.. poor smith)

  89. Hammers says:

    Back to your article re points 2 years ago . The only thing it proves is the wheels can fall off but this year we started without any wheels . Injuries , yes , bad goalkeeping ,yes , swarm , yes IF DD has another good game ie 910 to 920 then is it missing Sam or the Swarm . Us oiler fans make a lot of excuses . The simple truth may just be we aint good enough. Not saying it will happen but sometimes a trade scare the shite out of a team and right now that’s what they need .

  90. Lowetide says:

    Some of the WHL cities count shots but don’t publish. Calgary does.

  91. iHockeyWpg says:

    Two excellent articles by JW at CoH. Love the info about the goings on in OKC. LT, hope you can get JW on the show soon…

  92. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:
    Nesbitt (Lander, Omark) 3-0 Barons. Nelson has figured this thing out. He’s a helluva coach.

    Yes he is LT. Says a lot about Oiler management when they can’t find nice shiny things right under their noses doesn’t it?

    Always smarter than the rest. Always bucking the success stories of others. It’s the Oiler way.

    One day, when they stop patting themselves on the back and trying to relive what was 28 years ago, they might actually win something again. Doubtful but one can always hope.

    Nobody feels sorry for the current state of Edmonton sports teams though. They earned this and it looks kinda good on them. I feel sorry for the fans of both. (actually I couldn’t feel less sorry for fans of the Eskimos but I digress)

  93. cabbiesmacker says:

    Ice Sage: Oh and I always thought Burke just brought his old bud Carlyle in…
    All good coaches are ‘arrogant pricks’

    Really? Joel Quenneville come across that way to you? Todd McLellan? Mike Babcock?

    Probably the three best in the NHL but carry on.

  94. DeadmanWaking says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I wonder what the argument for overlapping is

    To the ears of a mathematician, that’s kind of like asking a psychiatrist why psychiatry is hung up on sex. I would have guessed that Euler was the mathematical Freud, and I would have been slightly wrong. My second guess would have been Cauchy. I would have slightly wrong for the second time.

    The investigation of the validity of infinite series is considered to begin with Gauss in the 19th century.

    Gauss published in 1812 a memoir on an earlier result of Euler.

    Archaeologists Discover Oldest Colonial Fort in U.S Interior

    This week, a team of archeologists announced the discovery of the remains of a long-lost 16th century Spanish garrison in western North Carolina that predates the earliest English settlements in North America by decades. Established in 1567, Fort San Juan was just one of at least six military installations built by the Spanish across the Appalachian mountain range, stretching from the coast of South Carolina to eastern Tennessee—and the only one of the forts scientists have located so far.

    How exactly does one apportion the credit, here? In any case, Cauchy came along nine years later, in 1821, and opened the first official Sheriff’s office: thou shalt test for convergence using strict methods. The old coots with the dowsing rods were actually pretty damn good at finding water. Their instincts–if they had any real talent–served them well. But it was a lot easier to step into a thicket and over a hidden cliff edge than even the cleverest juniper king ever imagined.

    What Cauchy showed is that the term-wise product of two convergent sequences isn’t necessarily convergent. This is a problem because what appear to be trivial rearrangements of a non-convergent sequence can in many cases be made to add up to nearly anything you want. It’s akin to dividing by zero in the middle of a long chain of reasoning, at which point the dull but diligent crank will fill several dozen further pages with dense mathematical notation before arriving at a proof of some immortal mathematical conjecture (e.g. the four colour theorem by pencil alone) whose epic stature is bounded only by the crank’s ego, unconstrained by his dull knife.

    If the “code” tag gives me monospace, you’ll be able to read this:

    +1 +1 -2 -2 +1 +1 -2 -1 +3 +3 -1 -2 +3 +2 -5 -4 +1 +3 +4 -1 -3 +4 +4 -8 -7 +4 +3 -6 -5 11

    +1 +2 .. -2 -1 .. -2 -3 .. +3 +2 .. +3 +5 .. -4 -3 .. +4 +3 .. +4 +8 .. -7 -3 .. -6 -11 ..

    The top line is perhaps a scoring opportunity delta. The second line is the running sums with the zero terms replaced by dots (turns out “code” eats spaces). Your partitioned window-sum on this sequence is all zeros. Yet the other partition offsets tell a very different story, diverging in both directions (plus and minus infinity).

    This is, of course, a hand-constructed pathology. One can argue–indeed, one often does argue–that the real world is governed by statistical processes incapable (on average) of dealing a stacked hand. But that argument comes after you’re backed into a mathematical corner, not right out of the starting gates. The tiny (and superficially harmless) discretion you’ve allowed into the system in choosing your by-three partition point can lead to arbitrary mischief in the pathological case. One only needs to crumple and bin a dozen pages of dense mathematical notation once, before prudence in these matters is permanently baked into your mathematical genome. I’ve never done that with equations, but I’ve done it with software more than once.

    This is way deeper than a mere rationale. If you think there’s a rational here, you’re missing the point. This is closer to when the first philosopher (Galileo?) pointed out that an equation of motion describes, but does not explain.

    Here’s a situation I’m sure no-one here has ever experienced.

    There’s a box of unopened condoms that have slunk into a dark corner at the back of your dresser drawer, now well past its expiry date. You’ve been shuffling your feet for a looooong time. What’s the rationale for trudging to the drug store for a fresh box of yucky tykes? When it’s 1935 in the middle of the dust bowl? When your bat is soooooo dry, not only have you lost the road, the road itself crumbled up and blew away?

    If you’re a mathematician, you summon up your nonchalance (you’re well practiced–occupational hazard) to run the gauntlet of having your doomed purchase swiped by the cutie with the barcode bracelet, who eyes up your gaunt expression and tattered straw hat with laser precision. “Shall I bag that for you?” she inquires. “It’s five cents extra,” she offers helpfully.

    “At least they’re not made out of hydrogenated soybean oil like the ones from the vending machine in the men’s room at the Sticky Wicket” you reply dryly. “Oh, I never knew that,” she says.

    Only you don’t hear her response, because you’re actually still standing there mute and dazed. You’re probably years away from successfully moving your parched lips in the presence of the recently bathed.

    But you never know. Chance showers.

  95. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:
    Nesbitt (Lander, Omark) 3-0 Barons. Nelson has figured this thing out. He’s a helluva coach.

    I’ll even go ya one up LT. If Todd Nelson had been given the job the Oilers would be in a far better position right now than they are under the current stoning victim.

    Yooooourrrr Edmonton Oilers. Smarter than the rest.

    Pisses me off I can’t come up with one “Fall for Hall”, “Diein for Ryan”, equivalent for Connor McDavid because I have no doubt the Oilers are in that discussion. Two years from now he could be just what the doctor ordered to turn things around.

  96. cabbiesmacker says:

    DeadmanWaking: To the ears of a mathematician, that’s kind of like asking a psychiatrist why psychiatry is hung up on sex.I would have guessed that Euler was the mathematical Freud, and I would have been slightly wrong.My second guess would have been Cauchy.I would have slightly wrong for the second time.

    Gauss published in 1812 a memoir on an earlier result of Euler.

    Archaeologists Discover Oldest Colonial Fort in U.S Interior

    This week, a team of archeologists announced the discovery of the remains of a long-lost 16th century Spanish garrison in western North Carolina that predates the earliest English settlements in North America by decades.

    I read a similar archaeological article just this week.

    “After having dug to a depth of 10 feet last year, British scientists found traces of copper wire dating back 200 years and came to the conclusion that **their** ancestors already had a telephone network more than 150 years ago.

    Not to be outdone by the Brit’s, in the weeks that followed, an American archaeologist dug to a depth of 20 feet, and shortly after, a story published in the New York Times: “American archaeologists, finding traces of 250-year-old copper wire, have concluded that **their** ancestors already had an advanced high-tech communications network 50 years earlier than the British”.

    One week later, Canadian Dept. Of Mines and Resources in Newfoundland reported the following:
    “After digging as deep as 30 feet in NE Canada, Jack Lucknow, a self-taught archaeologist, reported that he found absolutely fuck all. Jack has therefore concluded that 250 years ago, Canada had already gone wireless.”

  97. John Chambers says:

    In ’07 ’08 the Chicago Blackhawks had some putrid losing streaks supported by the goaltending of a man named Nik. They missed the playoffs by 3 points.

    This is where our team is – but I’m afraid this rotten start has already cost us playoffs.

  98. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    -Nuge came back earlier than anticipated and has been excellent, productive and is getting a ton of minutes.

    Hi KT, good to see you posting.

    RNH has really been struggling the last few games.

    He and Perron were under 40% CF and Yak was under 30% CF

    RNH’s CF% is 50.7% with Hall and 42.7% away.

    Now everyone generally drops off away from Hall, but RNH is getting buried away from him.

    I think he’s good and is going to be elite, but he’s not at the point yet where he can drive a line, especially with a wandering rookie on it.

    I like what Eakins has done with the lines to address this:

    Moved 14 along side of 93. Those 2 have previous chemistry and can control the puck in the ozone.

    Hopefully it helps today.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    cabbiesmacker: Pisses me off I can’t come up with one “Fall for Hall”, “Diein for Ryan”, equivalent for Connor McDavid because I have no doubt the Oilers are in that discussion.

    “Avid for McDavid”

  100. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DeadmanWaking: Romulus Apotheosis: I wonder what the argument for overlapping is
    To the ears of a mathematician, that’s kind of like asking a psychiatrist why psychiatry is hung up on sex. I would have guessed that Euler was the mathematical Freud, and I would have been slightly wrong. My second guess would have been Cauchy. I would have slightly wrong for the second time.

    What I don’t know about math I’ve leave you to fill in for me. Thanks for the excellent piece.

  101. bookje says:

    I’m late to the thread, but I think this is a borderline playoff team. If they make the playoffs and get .987 goaltending, then plan the parade.

  102. dawgtoy says:

    Droppin’ like a dart for Reinhart.

  103. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    iHockeyWpg:
    Two excellent articles by JW at CoH.Love the info about the goings on in OKC.LT, hope you can get JW on the show soon…

    good tip:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/10/18/edmonton-oilers-winger-linus-omark-has-four-points-for-oklahoma-city-barons-hang-on-to-beat-calgarys-affiliate-4-3/

    lot to go over from this.

    Martindale… yikes. Omark, Pitlick, lander…. yes!? (cautiously optimistic).

    The GM apparently wants 10-11 D on hand and Nelson wants to narrow that down to 7 daily guys.

    The note on Pitlick and PK for development is a really good sign of integrated management/coaching. Nelson is all in. We’re lucky to have him. I hope they send him some caramels.

  104. hunter1909 says:

    dawgtoy:
    Droppin’ like a dart for Reinhart.

    Fart for Reinhart.

  105. delooper says:

    DeadmanWaking:
    Gauss published in 1812 a memoir on an earlier result of Euler.

    Temporal order is mixed up. Freud is to psychology what Gauss is to mathematics. Only Gauss’s work is holding up better. They just don’t make’m like they used to.

  106. hunter1909 says:

    Dallas Eakins looks a lot like a young Victor Tikhnov.

    Explains why he hates Yakupov.

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