SOMETIMES BLUE

“GM’s face the challenge of being too much of a hurry sometimes when they’re young.”  Bryan Murray in the book BEHIND THE MOVES frames the issue for Craig MacTavish right now. The Oilers new GM has been on the job less than a year, and has done some impressive things. I’d rate the Perron trade, the Gordon signing and the decision to keep Ales Hemsky as clear wins, and there were other moves designed to improve the number of actual NHL players on the roster that could work out longer term.

Azorcan3MACT’S TRADES

  1. Signed D Anton Belov. A solid, low-risk move that has paid off in a regular top 6 NHL defenseman. Plus arrow.
  2. Signed C Mark Arcobello. This didn’t seem like a big move at the time, but it has paid dividends. Plus arrow.
  3. Traded C Shawn Horcoff for D Phil Larsen and a pick. I didn’t like dealing him, but offloading the cap number set up the summer. Plus arrow.
  4. Signed D Andrew Ference. Hasn’t paid off as a hockey signing so far, we don’t really know if he’s impacting “the room.” Neutral arrow.
  5. Signed G Jason LaBarbera. Hasn’t paid off as a hockey signing so far, hasn’t helped Dubey. Down arrow.
  6. Signed C Boyd Gordon. A wildly successful signing. Top drawer. Bold plus arrow.
  7. Signed L Jesse Joensuu. It looked good early, we haven’t really seen him though. Neutral arrow.
  8. Signed C Will Acton. I know this won’t be popular, but he’s served the purpose, PK’s and has 2 goals. Plus arrow.
  9. Signed L Ryan Hamilton. We haven’t seen enough to say. Looks slow. Neutral arrow.
  10. Signed G Richard Bachman. We haven’t seen enough to say. That may change after last night. Neutral arrow.
  11. Signed R Ryan Jones. Jones hasn’t been much of a factor either way. Neutral arrow.
  12. Signed D Brad Hunt. Haven’t seen him since TC. Neutral arrow.
  13. Traded L Magnus Paajarvi and a 2014 2nd rd pick to St. Louis for L David Perron. A long, deep, majestic home run that cuts through the October night like a missile and remains in the mind’s eye. Maybe forever. Bold plus arrow.
  14. Signed D Denis Grebeshkov. Identical to the Belov signing, although we have fewer sorties. Neutral arrow.
  15. Claimed L Steve MacIntyre on waivers. Hasn’t taken a regular season at bat. Neutral arrow.
  16. Clained L Luke Gazdic. He’s occupied a 4line spot, scored a goal and hasn’t cost too many. Neutral arrow.
  17. Traded R Mike Brown to San Jose for a 4th round pick in 2014. Gold. Plus arrow.

night

Craig MacTavish is a thinking man, and doubt he’s made a deal so far that didn’t receive a thorough examination. The problem for him now is that teams aren’t going to deal what he needs without taking a very large pile of currency the other way. I don’t know that you can win an October trade from 14th place in the conference, but I sure as hell know you can lose one.

The transactions above married themselves to the needs list. It’s interesting to see how all of them fit together–the Horcoff trade brings the Gordon signing, the Paajarvi trade opens up the Joensuu signing, et cetera. Not every move made will work out, but we’re a few weeks into the season and it’s interesting to look back:

THE MACT LIST

  1. Top 4 defender (signed Ference)
  2. Sign Sam Gagner to a multi-year deal that has begins with a number in the 4′s (Got it done late)
  3. Get Paajarvi signed and then find a role that suits him (suspect it’s 3line). (It was St. Louis instead)
  4. NHL goalie (LaBarbera was a nice option, Bachman a backup option)
  5. Find a 2line L who can complement Gagner-Yakupov with puck retrieval, blocking out the sun, etc (Perron, perfect fit)
  6. Find a 3line R  (Joensuu, Hamilton, Jones, Pitlick, now Lander)
  7. Find a 3line C (Gordon an ideal fit)
  8. Find a 4line C (Acton)
  9. Better blue depth (Belov, Grebeshkov, Larsen, a long list)

LOOKING AHEAD

harry by warholMost Oiler fans believe the team needs a starting goaltender, and all Oiler fans would welcome a 30-minute a night, complete defenseman. Those things come only at a massive cost, and if we’re talking about acquiring those men it’s probably going to cost you a supreme slice of the future.

I would like to see a trade that helps the current team, but not at the cost of the future. Not now, not in November nor December either. If this is the Oilers fate–an improved team that the Hockey Gods mock, then so be it.

I’d rather miss the playoffs than trade Yakupov for a maybe goalie or a sometimes blue. The future belongs to the Oilers. No need to flush it.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

DENEUVE

TSN1260 at 10 this morning. Plenty of Oiler talk, scheduled to appear:

  • Tyler Dellow from mc79 hockey. Patience, Yakupov, MacTavish, the powerplay.
  • Neal Livingston from Tend The Farm. Pitlick, Lander, roster moves, Church outfits.n
  • Brad Slater to talk NFL football. Seahawks in action tonight, we’ll talk about it.
  • Travis Yost from Hockeybuzz. Senators are 4-5-2. What’s wrong?
  • Jeff Chapman from Copper and Blue. Perron, Bachman, if they trade what will go?

10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on Twitter. It’ll be interesting!

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126 Responses to "SOMETIMES BLUE"

  1. theres oil in virginia says:

    Regarding Arcobello, I was counted amongst the skeptical, perhaps even a loud voice in that camp, but I am quite satisfied with his play and Acton’s play thus far.

    I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Ference to this point. I’m not saying he couldn’t be a bit better, but he’s been mostly solid. He reminds me a bit of Petry in that he gets criticism that he likely doesn’t merit, probably due to the lack of flash in his game. (On that note, although it pains me to say it, I thought SchultzO had a good game last night. Ich, I don’t feel so good.)

    I give the Joensus (is that a purposeful misspell by Woodguy? 2nd coming reference?) signing my seal of approval. The Oilers look better with him, healthy, in the lineup. I wouldn’t dock the signing due to the injury.

    (This comment feels very Rom-esque.)

  2. sliderule says:

    The oilers have played most of their games on road

    The oilers have played most of season either without best centre or best player

    The oilers goalies have been the worst tandem in the nhl.

    The oilers have been playing without Gagner

    The oilers have been playing a new system which they are getting better at

    The oilers if you take in all of above are much better team than record

  3. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I think that’s a nice assessment Lowetide. I’m interested to see what Joensuu and Hamilton can do longer term, and it will be interesting to see how Gagner slots into the lineup when he’s back.

    I was really interested in seeing Bachman last night, and obviously he did great (albeit in one game). I’d be curious to know if his style of play is a better fit for Eakins defensive coverage…. both Labarberra and Dubnyk are functionally the same style of goaltender, and both are struggling. Maybe the small agile type of goalie is a better fit for the swarm.

    Before people jump all over me for the comment, I realize it’s pure speculation at this point, and that one game isn’t enough to judge on. I just think it’s interesting that two large and (relatively) slow goalies have massive career regressions at exactly the same time under the same system, and a new guy who’s half the size comes in excel’s against a very good team that basically controlled the puck for 63 minutes. Maybe (MAYBE) that’s part of problem… MAYBE.

  4. godot10 says:

    Mostly of MacT’s moves have been okay and/or I have no problem with. I wouldn’t have changed coaches, but MacT is entitled to his own coach. The poorer decisions.

    //Traded C Shawn Horcoff for D Phil Larsen and a pick. I didn’t like dealing him, but offloading the cap number set up the summer. Plus arrow.//

    I would have kept Horcoff, and bought him out next summer with the 2nd compliance buyout, if he was untradeable. I would have told him he would fill the gap at centre until Nugent-Hopkins was healthy, and then play left wing with Gordon on a shutdown line. This would have side effects. No Ryan Jones. No Denis Grebeshkov. No Ryan Hamilton. He let go an actual NHL player when he didn’t have to, from a team that doesn’t have enough actual NHL players.

    //Signed G Jason LaBarbera. Hasn’t paid off as a hockey signing so far, hasn’t helped Dubey. Down arrow.//

    Lesson for NHL GM’s. Never trade for or sign free agent goaltenders from teams coached by Dave Tippett. Mike Smith, Ilya Bryzkalov, Jason Labarbera.

    //Signed C Will Acton. I know this won’t be popular, but he’s served the purpose, PK’s and has 2 goals. Plus arrow.//

    The PK sucks, so this has to be viewed as a down arrow for me.

    //Claimed L Steve MacIntyre on waivers. Hasn’t taken a regular season at bat. Neutral arrow.//

    A stupid impulsive move.

  5. russ99 says:

    Action isn’t paid to score goals, he’s there to win faceoffs, kill penalties and play defense.

    All of which he’s not done especially well this year, though some of that is linemates and Eakins playing the 4th line in odd situations.

    If comparing to last year, he’s an improvement, but I still think there were better options out there.

    That goes double for the 3rd line wingers.

  6. slopitch says:

    Id love to see a move as well. Its gonna have to be a money decision or a move where a team has decided they are moving a player.

    I could go for Erhoff, Girardi, M Staal. Not sure I’d take Campbell at his number but a FLA fire-sale is coming. But Erhoff is a guy who’d really look good on the Oilers. Nultz+ a 1st? Damn that’s risky but the Oilers are better then where they currently sit. I’m sure MacT has a pro-scout watching Myers 24/7, I bet he’s available but at his salary I’m not sure you can go there.

    I could see the Oilers buying and selling this year as well. I could easily see them moving Nultz (replaced by Klefbom) and Hemsky (more minutes for Yak, but Id hate to see him go unless the return is big)

    When is Gagner back?

  7. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ca$h-Money!,
    I don’t think that’s an unreasonable suggestion. Although, it’s a small sample size, and you make a mobile, out-of-the-crease goalie look bad in a different way than you do with a big-brick-wall goalie. We’ll see if he gets exposed in a different game, but so far so good. However, Dubnyk and LaBarbera aren’t the only goalies to look shaky early on. (Lundquist still hasn’t righted the ship (last I checked), and frankly, Mike Smith looked awful on Saturday.)

    godot10: //Signed C Will Acton. I know this won’t be popular, but he’s served the purpose, PK’s and has 2 goals. Plus arrow.//
    The PK sucks, so this has to be viewed as a down arrow for me.

    That’s a good point. It would be nice if the 4th line center was a PK stalwart.

  8. leadfarmer says:

    I would count the signing of Labarbara as a huge down arrow. MacT needed to bring in at least a 1B caliber goalie in case Dubbie couldnt handle the pressure, and he failed pretty much negating most of the plus arrows above.

  9. Bos8 says:

    Signing Belov – sing Hosannas. Size, talent and smarts. Exactly what’s needed for the big boys prevalent here.

    Side note – everyone is hurting today.

  10. jp says:

    If MacT doesn’t make any rash trades due to the ugly start (he’s resisted so far), AND the team actually starts winning games at some point I guess that would have to be considered a plus arrow too.

    I’ve liked MacT’s moves overall so far.

    godot10:

    //Traded C Shawn Horcoff for D Phil Larsen and a pick. I didn’t like dealing him, but offloading the cap number set up the summer. Plus arrow.//

    I would have kept Horcoff, and bought him out next summer with the 2nd compliance buyout, if he was untradeable.I would have told him he would fill the gap at centre until Nugent-Hopkins was healthy, and then play left wing with Gordon on a shutdown line.This would have side effects.No Ryan Jones.No Denis Grebeshkov.No Ryan Hamilton.He let go an actual NHL player when he didn’t have to, from a team that doesn’t have enough actual NHL players.

    You can’t have both Horcoff and Gordon. Aside from the dollars (Horcoff cost almost 2M more than Jones, Grebeshkov and Hamilton combined), Gordon likely doesn’t sign here with an incumbent in his lineup spot. I think getting Horcoff’s contract off the books AND getting a depth player in return was one of MacT’s better moves. And Gordon is a revelation who can play that role for 5 more years.

    Bos8:
    Signing Belov – sing Hosannas.Size, talent and smarts.Exactly what’s needed for the big boys prevalent here.

    Side note – everyone is hurting today.

    Yes.

    And Yes.

  11. cc says:

    I heard the Rangers are looking for offense with Nash and Callahan out. It might be unpopular here but would Hemsky be a fit? Hemsky for Krieder. Kreider is a 6’3 225 good skating 22-year-old forward who has fallen out of favour with the Rangers. Hemsky’s clearly the better player but with Gagner & Hall returning in the next 2-3 weeks. It might make sense to deal Hemsky now rather than later. Hemsky is -9 with 6 points in 13 games. I would hate to see him go but I think it is a win-win deal for both teams. Vignault would have some knowledge of Hemsky’s level.

    Not sure what the framework would be;
    Hemsky (retain 30-50% of his salary) + midlevel prospect (Musil/Davidson/ect ..) for Kreider & Boyle, Pyatt or Dorsett (One would need to be included for cap reasons). It makes more sense to deal him now for a player/prospect than it does for a pick. Not sure the Rangers do this deal but they have to be getting desperate to stay in contention.

  12. TartanArmy says:

    I’m not sure what happens to Arcobello and Acton when Gagner returns. Surely, we’ll see one of them head back to OKC. Acton seems like the typical 4th line center who can kill penalties, no flash to his game at all but effective in that role…. but can Arcobello fill that 4th line center role? Is he a better 4th liner than 2nd/3rd? Sure, both these guys can are good face-off men, but Arcobello could find himself on the outside looking in despite his offensive production so far. I just can’t see Gordon moving down the depth chart, what he brings is too important.
    Gordon, Perron, and Belov have been excellent additions imo. Jonseau need to prove he belongs and MacIntyre was pointless with Gadzic in the lineup.

  13. Doomoil says:

    I sincerely doubt that if we could point a singular problem as to why the PK has sucked it would be Will Acton. Simply saying the PK has sucked and he’s on the PK so therefore he sucks is a bit of a stretch.

    He’s done fine as the fourth line center, especially when not saddled with a face puncher on either side.

  14. Manitoba Oilers says:

    IMO Ference has been the worst Dman for the oilers

  15. Doomoil says:

    Manitoba Oilers:
    IMO Ference has been the worst Dman for the oilers

    You’d take Nick Shultz over Ference?

    You might be the only one.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I agree with a lot of your assessments and think the “incompletes” need full caveatage.

    But, I think you need to take advantage of the full range here. I notice only one down arrow (on Labarbs), where I think others are warranted (Acton, Hamilton, Jones, Smac, Gazdic). If Labarbs doesn’t get a break for short sample size, neither should Hamilton and Smac.

    The other thing is, you only appear to be considering on-ice performance… which is certainly a fair way to assess acquisitions (I won’t argue with it)… but a GM’s job exists outside of that narrow “show me” window, ie., there is a context in which all these signings/pick ups took place.

    Even if he’d have played every single game by now, SMac is a down arrow. I don’t think we can question this.

    Jones was an overpay and a decision made before alternatives were exploited (Raymond says hi!).

    Acton and Hamilton looks like favors paid in full to Eakins, not smart GMing.

    Gazdic I give a down, simply because I wish we didn’t have one of his kind. But, if this season saw no pick up of Smac, the Brown trade and the pick up of Gazdic, I’d be a lot happier with it.

    ———–
    You left out Omark. neutral arrow by your measure I’d gather.

    Belov deserves a bold positive.

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Regarding Arcobello, I was counted amongst the skeptical, perhaps even a loud voice in that camp, but I am quite satisfied with his play and Acton’s play thus far.

    I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Ference to this point.I’m not saying he couldn’t be a bit better, but he’s been mostly solid.He reminds me a bit of Petry in that he gets criticism that he likely doesn’t merit, probably due to the lack of flash in his game.(On that note, although it pains me to say it, I thought SchultzO had a good game last night.Ich, I don’t feel so good.)

    I give the Joensus (is that a purposeful misspell by Woodguy?2nd coming reference?) signing my seal of approval.The Oilers look better with him, healthy, in the lineup.I wouldn’t dock the signing due to the injury.

    (This comment feels very Rom-esque.)

    Work on your rambling (you need more), add a youtube clip of something tangential to LT’s post, say something about a film Catherine Deneuve was in… maybe Repulsion… then you’ve got it! Pretty close though, except for the clarity, try to excise some.

  18. Bos8 says:

    You can’t critique Ference out of context. He came from a structured system team where everyone did their assigned task. The OIlers are still growing into a team. Mistakes are common in missed assignments. The object of the exercise is less mistakes.

    The other noticeable thing last night was how the Oilers didn’t have much time to make decisions.

  19. Doomoil says:

    I tend not to watch Sportsnets in between period coverage but I did last night after the first. Who was the mook that wasn’t Brad May?

    And how is SN’s coverage littered with so many of these middling to bad NHLers/GMs? I turned on some preseason projections show and they had McSorley of all people on a panel. Who the hell wants Marty McSorley predictions?

  20. justDOit says:

    Doomoil: You’d take Nick Shultz over Ference?

    You might be the only one.

    Can someone please tell J Schultz not to take those little tabs that Grebs is giving out? That young man makes some bewildering decisions out there. He did have a pretty good shift against Carter in OT last night – I guess purple micro dot wears off after the third…

  21. G Money says:

    I’m going to echo a lot of what Rom says. I think the overall assessment is mostly but not all a little on the positive side of the ledger:

    Can’t give Barbie a minus arrow yet – he was a solid signing at the time, and all we’ve seen is a goalie pitch a couple of bad games. It happens. All the time.

    Can’t give Acton a plus arrow yet, not when others – proven NHLers – were available and not signed.

    Jones – minus arrow, mainly because better, cheaper, proven NHLers were available and not signed.

    SMac – minus arrow. Too reactionary. You either decided you need a facepuncher and sign one up front who can play, or you accept that dirty plays like Kassian/Gagner are going to happen and don’t sign one. Gazdic’s presence hasn’t stopped teams from taking out Hall or PItlick’s knees, or try to take Petry’s jaw and RNH’s knee.

    Can’t wait until we have Hall and Gagner back in the lineup.

  22. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: add a youtube clip of something tangential to LT’s post

    Oh, those are tangential!? Heehee.

    (I shouldn’t have to work too hard to reduce my clarity though, I must have just had a moment there.)

  23. boxman says:

    I let go of my frustrations derived from untold years of missing the playoffs and the hopeless hierarchy of the Oilers after Saturdays game. In short I am trying to accept the fact that the Oilers are still not ready for prime time ( should-a, could-a, would-a ). The positive was it allowed me to see a tired wounded Oilers team that battled the Kings as hard as they could. It freed me up to see the magnificence that is the young Oilers! This fan is going to do his best to ignore the soul sucking incompetence that will be Kevin Lowes legacy and to instead enjoy the brilliance of the young core that fell into the OIlers laps through sheer incompetence. Yes we managed to take a harder dive than our competition did but we dove with no plan for what was needed to surround and guide our future stars. The clock can’t be turned back so I am putting on my blinders, plugging my nose and looking to the future. God speed Craig and Dallas. Good luck and stay healthy Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Yak, Gags, Ales, Shultz, Nurse, Klefbom, Maricin, Et al. Damn it feels good to list all these future all-stars. One day soon they will truly be the sum of their parts. GO OILERS!!1

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: I would have kept Horcoff, and bought him out next summer with the 2nd compliance buyout, if he was untradeable. I would have told him he would fill the gap at centre until Nugent-Hopkins was healthy, and then play left wing with Gordon on a shutdown line. This would have side effects. No Ryan Jones. No Denis Grebeshkov. No Ryan Hamilton. He let go an actual NHL player when he didn’t have to, from a team that doesn’t have enough actual NHL players.

    This is an interesting idea. Those three players you mention won’t cover the cap costs of both Horcoff and Gordon, however (not even close).

    THe other thing is… Horcoff really seemed to want out. So bad that he appeared to have taken the GM up on the offer to negotiate a trade on his own (which he never completed). But it’s possible MacT could have swayed him into staying, a la Hemsky.

    At any rate, having a Horcoff on the team is better than no Horcoff. I think you might be discounting how difficult that would be though.

    godot10: Lesson for NHL GM’s. Never trade for or sign free agent goaltenders from teams coached by Dave Tippett. Mike Smith, Ilya Bryzkalov, Jason Labarbera.

    This has been debated more than once, there doesn’t appear to be any effect, or at least very marginal effect, on goalie sv% based on coaching.

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/17/goaltenders-with-and-without-ken-hitchcock

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/11/the-dave-tippett-effect

    http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013/7/16/4529962/nhl-save-percentage-tippett-hitchcock-goaltenders-statistical-team-effects-ondrej-pavelec

    “The best defensive-minded coaches improved their goaltenders by 0.004 and 0.006 save percentage and even that seems to be predominately due to “luck” (ie: variance) than anything else. ”

    ———-
    I completely agree with you on Acton and Smac. down arrows.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    leadfarmer:
    I would count the signing of Labarbara as a huge down arrow.MacT needed to bring in at least a 1B caliber goalie in case Dubbie couldnt handle the pressure, and he failed pretty much negating most of the plus arrows above.

    I think we can say this in hindsight… but there are two major caveats here:

    1) the sample size of Labarbs being a very good back-up is monstrously big compared to the one that says he is below ECHL replacement level.

    2) at the time of the signing what mattered was that big sample size. The only other real candidate challenging Labarbs as a quality NHL back-up was Khudo, who signed a very similar deal and is now injured.

    You simply can’t know the future. at the time Labarbs was a very solid bet and still may be.

  26. Mr DeBakey says:

    Claimed L Steve MacIntyre on waivers. Hasn’t taken a regular season at bat. Neutral arrow.

    Slow, bad Arrow. A stupid move. A waste of a contract.

    Signed R Ryan Jones. Jones hasn’t been much of a factor either way. Neutral arrow.

    His Cap Hit is at least 500 Big Ones too high. As it stands they’d be better off without him.

    Signed D Andrew Ference. Hasn’t paid off as a hockey signing so far, we don’t really know if he’s impacting “the room.” Neutral arrow.

    His Cap Hit reloaded the Cap number that left with Horcov. They would be farther ahead with Hainsey and/or Gilbert. And Horcov too, though, yes, Horcov wanted to go. The Yak & I miss him.

    **

    Nevertheless, There were several good moves this summer.

    Going forward
    The real challenge will be working in all those rookie defensemen over the next couple of years.
    Young defensemen generally don’t help teams win NHL games.

    in case Dubbie couldnt handle the pressure,

    There was zero evidence this was going to be an issue.
    Its a little early to be writing off Labarbara

  27. John Chambers says:

    This team keeps losing, but unlike previous years you get a sense they could actually win most of the games. Last night notwithstanding.

    There is too much young talent here to panic. This team won’t be an embarrassment as we saw in 2010 and 2011, but they may finish near the bottom again and I’m convinced (for the 3rd time) that the turn-around point won’t be much further.

    Imagine what the team will do with Hemsky, Smyth, Schultz, and Jones’ cap hits off the books, as well as perhaps Gagner’s or Yakupov’s. We’ll see Klefbom and Nurse join the team soon, so if MacT can turn that salary into a couple depth players and goalie like Hiller or Halak, I say watch the eff out.

  28. TheGreatMutato says:

    I do agree with some others here that perhaps a few of those neutral arrows could easily be given the downward treatment, but I won’t complain – I often come to this blog for the optimism which, as an Oilers fan, keeps me sane(r).

    On a tangent, I came to yesterday’s GDT with the expectations of Bachman puns and was not disappointed. Though I’d still like to add that if Bachman can put together a decent run of Roadwork than we may say our problems in goal become Thinner. Labarbera has felt like a free-loss since arriving and if he continues to set the net a-Blaze then perhaps he’ll soon be taking The Long Walk down to OKC.

  29. art vandelay says:

    The oilers if you take in all of above are much better team than record

    And if my aunt had a package she’d be my uncle

    Last in the West.
    Barely avoiding last in the NHL.
    Massively unbalanced team with the same problems it’s had for the past 4-5 seasons.
    Boobs on the Bus mismanaging the on-ice product
    Absentee parasite/owner more interested in land grab than Stanleys.
    Welcome to the lottery.
    Again.

  30. VOR says:

    In the previous thread LT said,

    “I don’t understand why people are so down on Corsi. It’s been around forever. The only thing that’s changed is we now break out game state and by individual. Crazy reaction from smart people.”

    To which I respond

    LT,

    Show me your evidence for corsi being applicable to individual players.

    Show me a single shred of evidence that a single game analysis of team or individual corsi has any mathematical significance.

    In fact, someone, meaning to be ironic I am sure, said in the last thread that isn’t two seasons a small sample size? The truthful answer to that rhetorical question is hell yes, two seasons of game events for a single team is a tiny sample size.

    So my objection to corsi is the way it is used. Individuals are not populations. Smart people know that. A metric may work for a team and not work for any of the players on that team. Sample size matters, a lot. Smart people know that.

    Most of the negative comments about corsi in the last few threads have been about the fact that the Oilers are not much better this year than last year, if at all, by any possession metric. That is hardly an attack on corsi. On the Oilers, sure, on corsi not at all.

    In fact, as far as I can tell, I am the only person on this blog who has mounted any sort of serious attack on corsi (though there are certainly some elsewhere) and while I prefer shot for % as a metric I support the use of corsi at a team level and even believe it is predictive of team performance not just strongly correlated.

    (By the way, I happen to think, for the record, that the Oilers are vastly improved and well on their way to being a good team.)

    However, I find it hard to make any sort of argument for it being used to discuss the work of individuals. That is simply because, as you can confirm by going to Behind The Net, the results on the ice in terms of +/- per 60 ON, the same corsi or corsi relative, can give you vastly different on ice results. Not to mention that zone starts and quality comp and team stats are clear co-factors in corsi performance and should be factored into every discussion of an individuals corsi numbers and almost never are.

    I think the LA game gives us a very good example of its weakness as an in game stat for a single game. We could all see that LA was kicking the living crap out of the Oilers. What exactly did the corsi numbers for the game add to that?

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    art vandelay,

    Hi Art!

  32. rogue says:

    I agree with most of the list by LT. However, I think SMac was a definite knee jerk move. Bad, bad. A rookie GM mistake? And while Acton and Hamilton are ultimately the GM’s call, I think that Eakins was probably doing the pushing on both of these guys. Eakins, I feel made a bad call. Acton is part of the penalty kill, which has been abysmal. You would think playing under Eakins that he would be use to his coaching. Hamilton? Tooooooooo slooooow.
    And Ryan Jones, what can anyone say. On most any other good team he would be a 13-14th forward.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LT laying it down here!

    Does this count as “old manning”?

    ——-

    As someone who knows nothing about football can someone explain what the hell LT and Connor were talking about?

  34. Hammers says:

    Considering what McT started with and then cleaned out should also be added as a huge UP arrow .What he did seemed easy but wasn’t . I watched Hedja last night who still plays well and think Belov is a similar signing but McT needs to get him signed long term or it means nothing .Gordon ; Perron & Ference are here for a few years but I still think our biggest need is a “D” that is presently rated at least in the top 20-30 players and for that you have to give up a very good asset . Present player , 1st rd pick and a top “D” from Oklahoma like maybe Klefbom . Goaltending is off season. Question would you do Yak or Eberle , 1st and Klef for say Shea Webber and a 2nd rd pick .

  35. G Money says:

    rogue: And Ryan Jones, what can anyone say. On most any other good team he would be a 13-14th forward.

    In fairness, he is the 13th forward this year. He’s playing because Hall, Gagner, Smyth, and Joensuu are all injured. If all those guys are in the lineup, the fourth line looks like Acton-Arco-Smyth (give or take a few moves up or down the lineup), with Gazdic on the bench and Jones, Eager, and Pitlick back in the AHL.

  36. Kris11 says:

    Dearest Vor,

    (I know you hate me, but I like you.)

    “So my objection to corsi is the way it is used. “,

    Rel. Corsi, not plain Corsi. And carefully* corrected for context like Zonestart, Qualcomp, injury, etc.

    “Individuals are not populations. Smart people know that. A metric may work for a team and not work for any of the players on that team. Sample size matters, a lot. Smart people know that.”

    Actually, even stupid people know that.

    * There is no doubt that adjusting for context introduces a subjective element here and that should make us all a little uncomfortable, which is a legit criticism.

  37. Spydyr says:

    Manitoba Oilers:
    IMO Ference has been the worst Dman for the oilers

    Justin Shultz.That is all.

  38. Hammers says:

    One last thing and that’s from the coach who says my players will be fit or see reduced ice time . Then why does he say after the game they didn’t have anything left in the tank in the 3rd period . Is it time to sit a J. Schultz??? just asking . Enough of the B.S. start benching players not giving 100% .

  39. LMHF#1 says:

    In terms of players preventing the Clifford play – he has at least three options on his own:

    1- Absorb the hit with his arms and redirect the player into the boards using his own momentum against him. This is perfectly legal and effective against even the biggest player.

    2 – Stick his elbow in Clifford’s face. This used to be the way to do it and should be brought back in terms of being able to protect yourself from a run and have the refs look the other way.

    3 – Stick his stick in Clifford’s feet. This can be the most vicious as you’re basically setting him up for a head-first board collision. It would also be most likely to give a guy like Clifford some pause before taking a run.

  40. LMHF#1 says:

    Spydyr: Justin Shultz.That is all.

    Who’s this you’re talking about?

  41. Colonel Obvious says:

    The beatdown lastnight underscores how much less talented the Oilers are in comparison to the top teams in the NHL. If you put the Kings best forwards or defensemen in a list and then try to slot the comparable Oilers players it becomes very apparent.

    Forwards

    Kopitar
    Carter
    Richards (Eberle and Hopkins here? certainly no higher)
    Brown (Hemsky, Perron)
    Williams (realistically Eberle and Hopkins might be down here)
    Stoll (Gordon)
    Fratin (Arcobello)
    Lewis
    King (does Yakupov go here based on performance right now?)
    (Jones,Lander and Yakupov are down here somewhere far below

    If you look at it this way there is no comparison in talent levels.

    I won’t do it for defense but it is just as bad. The Oilers have no one near as good as Doughty or Voynov.

    Considering this, blaming Eakins is crazy talk, blaming MacT is crazy talk. He brought in three players capable of playing at this level (Gordon, Perron, Belov), which is more than I expected, without losing Hemsky.

    Face it. The rebuild started last spring. Tambellini set this franchise back years.

  42. Colonel Obvious says:

    I’ll add that right now the Oilers are playing without Hall and Gagner, easily two of their best players, and with J Schultz and Yakupov, two players who are terrible, taking regular icetime.

    Now I don’t disagree with playing JSchultz and Yakupov since the only way the Oilers are ever going to compete with teams like the Kings is if JSchultz and Yakupov turn into at least, pseudo-stars. However, let’s be frank. They are completely over their heads right now. It really is shocking how bad they are playing. It wouldn’t be better for the team longterm but replace Schultz with Larsen and Yakupov with Omark and this team is much better right now.

    Now if you want to blame that on the coach, go crazy. But it isn’t like either of them were that good last year and their problem isn’t really without the puck. Their problem right now is how bad they are with the puck. As Woodguy has been saying Schultz is a lollygagger. It’s incredible how soft and lazy looking he seems with the puck. The result is terrible turnovers. Conversely, Yakupov stickhandles like a frenetic crazy person. He thinks he is better than he is. The result is terrible turnovers. I think that’s harder to pin on the coach.

  43. G Money says:

    Colonel Obvious,

    True enough – the Kings are a contender and the Oilers are not nearly there yet. Those pointing out the Kings were the better team by far last night as if its some sort of revelation are just spewing for the sake of spewing.

    That said, to make for a fair comparable, I think if you reversed the situation and saw a Kings team coming in to Edmonton missing Kopitar and Carter, while on the second night of a back to back and three games in four, and playing a healthy (i.e. Hall and Gagner in the lineup at least) rested Oiler team – I do not think you would see anywhere near such a stark difference.

  44. nelson88 says:

    Hammers,

    Big game hunting is risky and very difficult to pull off major deals but I think that is the type of deal MacT would do if he had a dance partner.

    Yak, JSchultz, (Klefbom or Marincin), 2014 2nd rounder if need be for Webber and one of the preds goalie prospects.

    Yes, the oilers “give up a lot” but they are looking at setting new records for futility and if you evaluate purely in 2013/14 and 2014/15 terms are they really giving up difference makers?

    Do the deal above, trade NSchultz (needed cap space) and sign Petry to a 4 x $4M. For the next 3 years your forwards are still good (particularly if you can re-sign Hemsky on a reasonable cap hit) and improving/maturing while your D is

    Webber – Nurse
    Smid – Petry
    Ference – Belov/Marincin/Simpson, etc.

    Mix and mingle as you want but that is top 3rd D core in the leaque and for a combined cap hit around a manageable $22M.

  45. G Money says:

    Colonel Obvious: Conversely, Yakupov stickhandles like a frenetic crazy person. He thinks he is better than he is.

    I thought Yak started to find his game last night. Not talking about the goal, which was obvious, but he didn’t look as lost in his own zone, and he wasn’t trying to do it all by himself in the o zone. If we see the same but-a-little-quicker sort of progression as we saw last year (hot start, faded for 25 games while trying to get RKs system play down, then a hot finish), I think in another five games we will start to see the future superstar Yak a little more clearly.

    JSchultz on the other hand I’m very disappointed in. The offensive flair is still there, but I expected as a second year player that he’d concentrate on and start to get a slightly better handle on play in the D zone. The lollygagging is just mindf*ckingly annoying.

  46. VOR says:

    Mon ami kris11,

    The problem is more profound than you are admitting. The difficulty lies in the fact that we don’t know enough about the co-factors and how they work. I can tell you that few players push large relative corsi with tough zone stats and tough competition. Even fewer can do it with bad teammates. I also suspect the behavior of relative corsi in a statistical sense is saying something important but I just can’t work it out (on the other hand it makes me deeply nervous about using it to evaluate players – the conversion is somehow creating noise that doesn’t exist in raw corsi #s). Then the sample sizes available for all corsi numbers for individuals are very small given the variations present in the samples we do have.

    The thing is that for corsi, Fenwick, and shot % (or shots for % if you prefer) for teams the sample size is larger and the analysis, by and large, statistically valid and robust. None of that applies to individuals which is apparent the minute you start analyzing the available data sets. Yet, people keep trying to use it (without qualification) to analyze the performance of individual players. I used to be guilty of that one myself before I started trying to demonstrate that relative corsi can be used on individuals. I ended up convincing myself that in a limited number of settings (forwards only for example) and with tons of qualification you can use relative corsi to evaluate individuals – but as you say yourself – contextual placement opens the door to subjectivity. At least until we know how to allow for zone start, comp, teammates, etc.

    If asking valid questions about particular sabermetrics and their uses is crazy then I am crazy.

  47. denny33 says:

    Agree with the overall list that LT has given.

    Overall Mac T has done a far superior job than Tabmi.

    Belov might be our 2nd best defenceman at times….really, really impressed the LA crew.

    In general, I feel Mac T has tried to address the team’s needs. Especially the need to prevent our lunch money from CONSTANTLY being stolen.

    My only issue is moves that he tried to make …not sure we would not be without a possible cornerstone player in Darnell Nurse and we would be saddled with David Clarkson.

    Along the Clarkson lines – the signing of Andrew Ference to such a long deal is almost bizarre.

    Andrew turns 35 this spring and aside from locker room leadership – not sure he is not just plain average, at best. One can only speculate what he will be like in years 3 & 4 of that contract.

    Injuries aside – I think we can all agree that this team remains miles away from a truly cup competitive team.

    Hall and Gagner are going to have to do a lot of work when they get back…..

    2014 Top Prospect Profile:

    6th
    Jake Virtanen
    Profile
    2013-14 Team: Calgary League: WHL
    Position: Right Wing Height: 6’1″
    DOB: Aug. 17, 1996 Weight: 213 lbs.
    2012-13 Statistics
    Team GP G A PTS +/- PIM
    Calgary 62 16 18 34 +25 67
    TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button:
    Jake has undeniable skill. Excellent skater who has speed, quickness and power. Can beat defenders with his skating and when he gets an advantage, his size makes it almost impossible for a defender to get back on equal footing. Very strong shot and can beat goaltenders from out but also has the quickness in his hands to score in tight. Has the potential to be a dynamic scoring winger.

  48. G Money says:

    VOR: I ended up convincing myself that in a limited number of settings (forwards only for example) and with tons of qualification you can use relative corsi to evaluate individuals – but as you say yourself – contextual placement opens the door to subjectivity. At least until we know how to allow for zone start, comp, teammates, etc.

    From a pragmatic perspective – this is in large measure why I don’t use Corsi at all for individuals … to my mind, the Vollman charts (specifically the ones that have ZS and QoC as the x,y axes, bubbles sized by TOI, which act as a proxy for coach trust, and bubbles coloured by Corsi which show a high level gradation rather than artificially and unjustifiably specific numbers) are probably the state of the art for ‘single look’ advanced statistics on individuals. And even those are probably useless until you’ve got a good 20 games in the books.

  49. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    So far, I have been pleased with MacT’s leadership. It is a very stark contrast to Tambellini and from that perspective, very timely as we are into the real tough decision time. I am one that has accepted we are not in the playoffs this year which was a bit crushing to accept as I honestly felt that the team was ready for the next level of development (learning what playoff hockey is). But we are another year away. So, it will be a year of development for the keepers under Eakins system and player shuffling by MacT to find a stronger balance.

    I think the priorities narrow down to a legitimate starter in net and a #1 D. Sure, we can use some more size and toughness in our forward ranks, but that isn’t the high risk, high priority area today and those types of hockey trades won’t require the serious consideration on what gets traded away. I’m thinking MacT will complete these two large assignments before the start of next year. With what is coming in terms of Klefbom and Nurse, we really need that mentor on D. Not only will he impact the play on ice in a most necessary way, he will guide and mentor a young D core. Ference will as well, but he is complementary not primary.

    As a fan, my only insistence is that these deals get done before next year. That is the impatience I want MacT to exhibit. I’m not concerned he is a ‘rookie GM’ and will be subject to making irrational moves. He is a cerebral and experienced hockey guy. He has been around the block a few times. He gets a mulligan on Smac. Emotion got to him there. But DD is not his man – he will fix that. And some of our prized forward assets will be on the table for a coveted D man. The price might be steep, but I’m confident it will not be lopsided and reckless. It’ll be bold and uncomfortable though. I also think it is necessary. We are close and the team is better. But the timing concern for bold trades is dissipating as the season rolls along game by game. Turn over every rock, take every call, and consider every name. The list of needs isn’t extensive but the real needs are paramount. Until then, I’m going to not fixate on the W/L this season and celebrate the big moments that happen through this season. If by miracle they claw back to playoff contention, I’ll be cheering like a banshee. .

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    G Money: In fairness, he is the 13th forward this year.He’s playing because Hall, Gagner, Smyth, and Joensuu are all injured. If all those guys are in the lineup, the fourth line looks like Acton-Arco-Smyth (give or take a few moves up or down the lineup), with Gazdic on the bench and Jones, Eager, and Pitlick back in the AHL.

    This contract doesn’t say “13th forward,” it says 3rd liner:

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/1051

  51. commonfan14 says:

    nelson88: Yak, JSchultz, (Klefbom or Marincin), 2014 2nd rounder if need be for Webber and one of the preds goalie prospects.

    I don’t think the Preds are in a position to trade any goalie prospects now that Rinne is dealing with an apparently very serious and scary sounding infection in his hip.

  52. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    denny33: 2014 Top Prospect Profile:
    6th
    Jake Virtanen
    Profile
    2013-14 Team: Calgary League: WHL
    Position: Right Wing Height: 6’1″
    DOB: Aug. 17, 1996 Weight: 213 lbs.
    2012-13 Statistics
    Team GP G A PTS +/- PIM
    Calgary 62 16 18 34 +25 67
    TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button:
    Jake has undeniable skill. Excellent skater who has speed, quickness and power. Can beat defenders with his skating and when he gets an advantage, his size makes it almost impossible for a defender to get back on equal footing. Very strong shot and can beat goaltenders from out but also has the quickness in his hands to score in tight. Has the potential to be a dynamic scoring winger.

    This might interest you:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/10/13/4834712/2014-nhl-mock-draft-october-update

  53. denny33 says:

    Colonel Obvious,

    Makes you wonder why some NHL organizations think playing 18/19 year old kids is cruel and unusual punishment. Granted there are always exceptions….just not sure Nail was one of them.

    I actually think Nail is trying too hard now…..over stick handling, etc, etc,

    I have been the harshest critic of J. Schultz but ( missed the Coyotes game ) and his numbers speak for themselves..but I have seen noticeable improvement in his d-game the last few weeks.

    You can see he still struggles to identify his guys sometimes without the puck but – as someone else pointed out – his 1 on 1 with J. Carter was a HUGE improvement. Normally Justin is a rag doll in one on one battles.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    FWIW if we want to start salivating about prospects and where we might be drafting next year, the guy I want is Leon Draisaitl.

  55. denny33 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Thanks – I kept wondering when the Devils had to forfeit that 1st round pick…

  56. maudite says:

    art vandelay,

    Same as prior to seAson 10 to 12th in west, 7-9th with a huge dose of luck. Better.

  57. TeeVee says:

    Colonel Obvious,

    “…Their problem right now is how bad they are with the puck. As Woodguy has been saying Schultz is a lollygagger. It’s incredible how soft and lazy looking he seems with the puck. The result is terrible turnovers. Conversely, Yakupov stickhandles like a frenetic crazy person. He thinks he is better than he is…”

    These are my exact feelings of these two clowns.

    There’s no questioning Yak’s ability to fire the puck in the net when it lands at his feet but he’s looked terrible overall so far.

  58. maudite says:

    Actually a slim but realistic playoff chance. Kind of where I pegged them.

  59. maudite says:

    We may end up lottery as luck has definitely titled odds at this point and I was assuming out division would bury us. Costly start, be amazed if we have a shot soon but the good outweighs the bad in offseason transaction scope.

  60. OilClog says:

    TeeVee:
    Colonel Obvious,

    “…Their problem right now is how bad they are with the puck. As Woodguy has been saying Schultz is a lollygagger. It’s incredible how soft and lazy looking he seems with the puck. The result is terrible turnovers. Conversely, Yakupov stickhandles like a frenetic crazy person. He thinks he is better than he is…”

    These are my exact feelings of these two clowns.

    There’s no questioning Yak’s ability to fire the puck in the net when it lands at his feet but he’s looked terrible overall so far.

    Did you really just call Yakupov a clown?

    Wow.

  61. Colonel Obvious says:

    G Money,

    I agree Yakupov looked somewhat better against the KIngs. The pass that sent Hemsky around Regherh was calm and measured.

    However, he is still bad at getting the puck out of his own zone. Far too often he blindly slams it against the boards right to a defenseman. That’s where he struggles a lot. This was also Omark’s biggest weakness.

    denny33,

    My problem with JSchultz isn’t on defense. I think he has a good stick and is at least reasonable. The problem is the lazy giveaways. The Dwight King play was horrific and those kinds of plays are all too commonplace.

    As to Ference, yeah that’s a bad contract.

  62. Colonel Obvious says:

    If you want to feel good about the Oilers go check out the Sabres roster. Now that is bleak. You can pencil in Connor McDavid right now.

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Colonel Obvious:
    If you want to feel good about the Oilers go check out the Sabres roster.Now that is bleak.You can pencil in Connor McDavid right now.

    Sam Reinhart must feel like he’s getting robbed of the buzz that is his proper due. Kid gets no respect. Ha!

  64. Gret99zky says:

    3 wins. Down arrow.

  65. TeeVee says:

    OilClog,

    He got grouped in with Jultz :-)

    My frustration is overflowing.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I had tickets to Coldplay, but I let my friend take his mom.”

    That sums up Coldplay perfectly.

  67. Logan91 says:

    denny33:
    Agree with the overall list that LT has given.

    Overall Mac T has done a far superior job than Tabmi.

    Belov might be our 2nd best defenceman at times….really, really impressed the LA crew.

    In general, I feel Mac T has tried to address the team’s needs. Especially the need to prevent our lunch money from CONSTANTLY being stolen.

    My only issue is moves that he tried to make …not sure we would not be without a possible cornerstone player in Darnell Nurse and we would be saddled with David Clarkson.

    Along the Clarkson lines – the signing of Andrew Ference to such a long deal is almost bizarre.

    Andrew turns 35 this spring and aside from locker room leadership – not sure he is not just plain average, at best. One can only speculate what he will be like in years 3 & 4 of that contract.

    Injuries aside – I think we can all agree that this team remains miles away from a truly cup competitive team.

    Hall and Gagner are going to have to do a lot of work when they get back…..

    2014 Top Prospect Profile:

    6th
    Jake Virtanen
    Profile
    2013-14 Team: CalgaryLeague: WHL
    Position: Right WingHeight: 6’1″
    DOB: Aug. 17, 1996Weight: 213 lbs.
    2012-13 Statistics
    TeamGPGAPTS+/-PIM
    Calgary62161834+2567
    TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button:
    Jake has undeniable skill. Excellent skater who has speed, quickness and power. Can beat defenders with his skating and when he gets an advantage, his size makes it almost impossible for a defender to get back on equal footing. Very strong shot and can beat goaltenders from out but also has the quickness in his hands to score in tight. Has the potential to be a dynamic scoring winger.

    Oh man, Virtanen is something else. Several times I’ve seen him go up the ice and throw body checks while carrying the puck, he was very strong for a 16 year old. He was a big kid in his first season and he’s still growing, this is exactly the type of player the Oilers need. Based on potential alone I see him going high this year though.

    One of my favorite parts of the season is following the draft and the prospects.

  68. Zipdot says:

    Godot10, nice post. I disagree about Horcoff but at least you’re being sensible again. It’s good to have you back.

  69. Bos8 says:

    LMHF#1:
    In terms of players preventing the Clifford play – he has at least three options on his own:

    1- Absorb the hit with his arms and redirect the player into the boards using his own momentum against him. This is perfectly legal and effective against even the biggest player.

    2 – Stick his elbow in Clifford’s face. This used to be the way to do it and should be brought back in terms of being able to protect yourself from a run and have the refs look the other way.

    3 – Stick his stick in Clifford’s feet. This can be the most vicious as you’re basically setting him up for a head-first board collision. It would also be most likely to give a guy like Clifford some pause before taking a run.

    Bears repeating ad infinitum.

    Why the kids aren’t worked with in exactly that type of self protection just boggles the mind. Considering the cost to career and team involved, not teaching the kids a modicum of self protection is a mortal sin.

    “Pitlick, go out and hit everyone. They’ll be coming for you, but you’re on your own.”

    Now that’s just criminal.

    You don’t do it in open practice. You go find some quiet time and do it on a personal basis.

  70. VOR says:

    G MONEY,

    I love Vollman presented as you describe. The problem is that it is a descriptive tool not an analytic one. We don’t what effect these variables typically have on corsi. You do bring up another of the obvious co-factors – time on ice. Playing big minutes is another factor that may negatively effect on ice events.

    One I am trying to say is that Vollman allows us to go wow, given his ice time, zone start etc. Boyd Gordon is playing great. It isn’t however, predictive. It doesn’t tell us what happens if we reduce Gordon’s ice time, improve his zone start, play him against weaker competition and with better teammates. Would Gordon post giant corsi numbers?

    In other words even Vollman is limited in terms of usefulness in managing players if you are a coach. It just describes the current situation. It does nothing to predict what would happen if the situation changed, which is what coaches and GMs want to know. I assume it was fans want to know as well. Could we use Yakupov in a way that improved his corsi and by proxy his +/- per 60 ON? Vollman doesn’t tell us.

    If you’ve been watching the games you know Yakupov is struggling and getting sheltered minutes, albeit that has changed in the last few games (the sheltered part – not the struggling part). Vollman confirms that. I see nothing that tells me how we might fix Yakupov or for that matter how we might grade his play so far this season that we didn’t already know.

  71. OilClog says:

    Until most of the Oilers roster can legally gamble in Vegas, we should calm down. Lol

  72. godot10 says:

    Players like Yakupov and Justin Schultz are outliers and require personalized development plans within the overall plan for the team.

    I don’t think that is in either of MacT’s or Eakin’s DNA. They are both mainly systems guys. MacT never coached the flaws out of Hemsky’s game even though he taught him how to be a two-way player. MacT never maximized Hemsky because he had no clue outside of his X’s and O’s. Hemsky’s flaws remain. I think Eakins is similar. It is all X’s and O’s.

    With a young Hemsky, a young Yakupov, a young Paajarvi, or a young JSchultz, who are deviate pretty far from the normal prospect, one has to see the individual and not just the hockey player. If as a coach, you cannot identify how the player is different, and demonstrate to the player how he is unique, you cannot coach the player to maximize their talent and skills within a structured system, and about why they sometimes have to play the system rather than play to their instincts.

  73. Halfwise says:

    For a while there I thought every Oiler fan was heading for the ledge, after leaving a note on the table by the window.

    This franchise is still learning, from MacT on down. And maybe KLowe is learning that his help wasn’t help at all.

    No doubt the rest of the west has started better and the Oilers have looked like they’re still working out the bugs. Well, they are. And all those injuries, all those road games (seriously, 9 different cities in 17 days?! WTF?) mean they’ve been paddling into the current AND the wind.

    Silver lining? I see a few. Clearly, there is depth (but why the injuries are to Fs while the depth is on D is hockey god malice) and before this season depth was a distant memory. The team plays better, and clearly cares. That feels different.

    I think the schedule itself is a silver lining. Lots of 2 point games in this extended training camp, involving eastern teams. Lots of 4 point games coming up. Lots of road games already gone, more home games coming up. Wish we’d banked some points in the winnable games, but hockey is like life sometimes.

    As a fan I want them first to not betray me (where IS Tambo these days, anyway?) and I do want them to entertain me. Hope is part of the entertainment, and I am grateful to the stats guys for putting into numbers what I can see by eye.

    Playoff team? I hope so despite the shitty start, and while the odds are long today, it’s only October and there are a lot of winnable 4 point games ahead for a cohesive and (I hope) healthier team.

    What I don’t get, frankly, is the contempt that some posters drip with along with their despair. They’re like rioting prisoners…it’s not as if anyone is going to let them run the joint so why do they act like they want and deserve to?

  74. Pablo Aimar says:

    Colonel Obvious:
    The beatdown lastnight underscores how much less talented the Oilers are in comparison to the top teams in the NHL.If you put the Kings best forwards or defensemen in a list and then try to slot the comparable Oilers players it becomes very apparent.

    Forwards

    Kopitar
    Carter
    Richards (Eberle and Hopkins here? certainly no higher)
    Brown (Hemsky, Perron)
    Williams (realistically Eberle and Hopkins might be down here)
    Stoll (Gordon)
    Fratin (Arcobello)
    Lewis
    King (does Yakupov go here based on performance right now?)
    (Jones,Lander and Yakupov are down here somewhere far below

    If you look at it this way there is no comparison in talent levels.

    I won’t do it for defense but it is just as bad.The Oilers have no one near as good as Doughty or Voynov.

    Considering this, blaming Eakins is crazy talk, blaming MacT is crazy talk.He brought in three players capable of playing at this level (Gordon, Perron, Belov), which is more than I expected, without losing Hemsky.

    Face it.The rebuild started last spring.Tambellini set this franchise back years.

    What on earth are you talking about? Tortellini added pretty much ALL the supposed elite talent on this team. 3 #1′s, Eberle, Schultz, all added on his watch. This is the weirdest post I’ve seen on here.

  75. HBomb says:

    Not to be the one to dig-up-the-past, however, a simple “reversal” deal would help this team right now:

    - They only have two RH shots in their top six.
    - Justin Schultz is going through the growing pains that go along with being a young defenseman.
    - Jeff Petry has played fine, and would be an ideal 2nd pairing guy; HOWEVER, we don’t have a Shea Weber kicking around anywhere, and as LT has stated, the cost to acquire said player would be dear; as such, for now, Petry/Smid is the top-pairing
    - Belov/J.Schultz together makes sense, but against soft competition
    - Andrew Ference could use a RH partner for the 2nd pair
    - Nick Schultz looks done

    Adding all that up, and noting how he’s playing in Florida after getting a PTO to attend camp…who here wouldn’t love an “instant reversal” of the boneheaded Nick Schultz for Tom Gilbert trade right about now? No, it wouldn’t be a wow-move, but it would be enough to stabilize the back-end and give the team two defensive pairings they wouldn’t have to worry about.

  76. Colonel Obvious says:

    Here is an interesting fact concerning the relationship between Corsi and Qcomp. If you take the population of NHL players as a whole they have a positive correlation. This means you can’t simply adjust Corsi by a linear Qcomp coefficient because the data tells us that Qcomp predicts positive corsi when on a theoretical level Qcomp lowers Corsi. The reason for this is fairly obvious. The best players (who have high corsis) play more against other best players (and hence have positive Qcomps).

    Interesting enough, if you break the whole set of NHL players into subgroups the relationship changes. For instance the group of NHL players that spends time in the AHL has a negative relationship between Qcomp and Corsi, which is what you’d expect. The better their competition the lower their corsis.

    What does this tell me? It is possible to adjust shot differential metrics for contextual measures. Zone starts, for instances, has a linear relationship with shots that is consistent across NHL players (that I’ve tested), and which is also consistent with the theoretical relationship between zone starts and shots. So adjusting for zone starts is relatively straightforward.

    Adjusting for quality of competition and quality of teammates is more difficult but can be done (see above) but there will be some loss of accuracy.

    Vor’s point is generally correct, I think. These numbers are not predictive, and cannot ever be predictive. That’s because the iterative nature of hockey is such that there is not a universal relationship between the various elements we are measuring.

    However, I think he is underselling the value of descriptive measures. Knowing what has happened is incredibly valuable because it gives you a starting point from which to think. from this starting point, which is demonstrated by the numbers, it must be admitted that what is required is a kind of judgment that does not arise, strictly speaking, from the numbers themselves.

  77. Colonel Obvious says:

    Pablo Aimar,

    He didn’t add those players. He was given them. Moreover, and this is the point, you need more than five good players. His job was to find those good players and he came up empty every single time.

    Tambellini’s plan was basically draft #1. Wait for player to become star. We are finding out what is wrong with that plan.

  78. bookje says:

    godot10:
    Players like Yakupov and Justin Schultz are outliers and require personalized development plans within the overall plan for the team.

    I don’t think that is in either of MacT’s or Eakin’s DNA.They are both mainly systems guys.MacT never coached the flaws out of Hemsky’s game even though he taught him how to be a two-way player.MacT never maximized Hemsky because he had no clue outside of his X’s and O’s.Hemsky’s flaws remain.I think Eakins is similar. It is all X’s and O’s.

    With a young Hemsky, a young Yakupov, a young Paajarvi, or a young JSchultz, who are deviate pretty far from the normal prospect, one has to see the individual and not just the hockey player.If as a coach, you cannot identify how the player is different, and demonstrate to the player how he is unique, you cannot coach the player to maximize their talent and skills within a structured system, and about why they sometimes have to play the system rather than play to their instincts.

    Hey, were you the square peg, round hole Hemsky guy?

  79. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    This is a glowing review of MacT. To be clear, I like what he’s done overall but there are some glaring omissions.

    Centre depth was an issue that was only addressed in earnest with Gordon. He got lucky that Arcobello and Acton transitioned as well as they did, especially Arcobello–i don’t think anyone can argue his breakout was a reasonable expectation.

    He did not address defensive shortcomings. Belov and Ference were good additions but did not and do not address the imbalance. A bold move would have been a piece of the future for our 30 min defenseman.

    He got saved by Toronto on the Clarkson deal that would have handcuffed the team for years.

    MacIntyre, Gazdic, Brown, Eager…what is the point of these guys if they’re not fighting the players who are running the undersized? If we aren’t willing to take the instigator penalty then stop signing them.

    Labarbara has been a failure thus far and his mantrums during the PHX game raise questions about his veteran presence.

    I know it’s tiresome when the MSM talk on-and-on about the Oilers’ lack of size and grit, but they do need grit, which usually comes with size. Clutterbuck was available and others (Clifford, Lewis come to mind) may have been had.

  80. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    The Oilers have dynamic skill but are not a dynamic team and it makes them easy to play against.

    They jack threes every trip down the court and the personnel has a lot to do with this.

  81. Doomoil says:

    godot10:
    Players like Yakupov and Justin Schultz are outliers and require personalized development plans within the overall plan for the team.

    I don’t think that is in either of MacT’s or Eakin’s DNA.They are both mainly systems guys.MacT never coached the flaws out of Hemsky’s game even though he taught him how to be a two-way player.MacT never maximized Hemsky because he had no clue outside of his X’s and O’s.Hemsky’s flaws remain.I think Eakins is similar. It is all X’s and O’s.

    With a young Hemsky, a young Yakupov, a young Paajarvi, or a young JSchultz, who are deviate pretty far from the normal prospect, one has to see the individual and not just the hockey player.If as a coach, you cannot identify how the player is different, and demonstrate to the player how he is unique, you cannot coach the player to maximize their talent and skills within a structured system, and about why they sometimes have to play the system rather than play to their instincts.

    MacT taught never coached the flaws out of Hemsky’s game while also turning him in to a two way forward.

    That’s an impressive trick..

  82. godot10 says:

    HBomb:
    Not to be the one to dig-up-the-past, however, a simple “reversal” deal would help this team right now:

    - They only have two RH shots in their top six.
    - Justin Schultz is going through the growing pains that go along with being a young defenseman.
    - Jeff Petry has played fine, and would be an ideal 2nd pairing guy; HOWEVER, we don’t have a Shea Weber kicking around anywhere, and as LT has stated, the cost to acquire said player would be dear; as such, for now, Petry/Smid is the top-pairing
    - Belov/J.Schultz together makes sense, but against soft competition
    - Andrew Ference could use a RH partner for the 2nd pair
    - Nick Schultz looks done

    Adding all that up, and noting how he’s playing in Florida after getting a PTO to attend camp…who here wouldn’t love an “instant reversal” of the boneheaded Nick Schultz for Tom Gilbert trade right about now?No, it wouldn’t be a wow-move, but it would be enough to stabilize the back-end and give the team two defensive pairings they wouldn’t have to worry about.

    There is a better version of Gilbert (and Grebeshkov) in OKC named of Fedun. The season is basically lost anyways. I’d really like to see what Ference-Fedun could accomplish.

  83. LMHF#1 says:

    Bos8: Bears repeating ad infinitum.

    Why the kids aren’t worked with in exactly that type of self protection just boggles the mind.Considering the cost to career and team involved, not teaching the kids a modicum of self protection is a mortal sin.

    “Pitlick, go out and hit everyone.They’ll be coming for you, but you’re on your own.”

    Now that’s just criminal.

    You don’t do it in open practice.You go find some quiet time and do it on a personal basis.

    These sort of skills are disappearing for the same reason players don’t protect themselves in the corners anymore and play the puck with their back to the play. They’re no longer taught to expect it beginning in minor hockey – in fact, some are taught to try to draw a penalty by leaving themselves vulnerable.

    Used to be simple – keep your head up, face the play and protect yourself. Not saying you take out rules against hitting from behind etc, but the additional preparedness for the person being hit needs to come back into the game.

  84. thejonrmcleod says:

    Bos8: Bears repeating ad infinitum.

    What kind of bears? Black? Brown? Grizzly? Polar? Koala? Panda? Teddy?

    What are they repeating? And why?

  85. godot10 says:

    Doomoil: MacT taught never coached the flaws out of Hemsky’s game while also turning him in to a two way forward.

    That’s an impressive trick..

    Hemsky should be Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg, or Rick Middleton. All MacT did was take an enigmatic underproductive offensive phenom and turn him into an enigmatic underproductive decent two-way player, instead of turning him into a superstar. You can try to coach players to reach their potential, not just to be good two-way players. Hemsky is a testament to MacT’s inability to coach or understand talent. His choice of Nilsson over Glencross is a 2nd testament to that fact.

    Trying to make Ryan Smyth in his prime a centre, trying to make Erik Cole a left wing, and trying to make Taylor Hall a centre a testament to believing in systems over maximizing the ability and recognizing the talents of individual players, and adjusting one’s systems accordingly.

    Aside:

    The “smartest man in the room” had his 3rd string goaltender dressed as the backup for the opening game of the Stanley Cup final in 2006, instead of a healthy 2nd string goaltender.

  86. commonfan14 says:

    denny33: I have been the harshest critic of J. Schultz

    Wow, out of nowhere with a direct slap in the face to rickithebear…

  87. russ99 says:

    I don’t get the criticism of J. Schultz. He’s a second year player with lots to learn on D. You can’t expect the guy to look like Chara out there.

    But what he does on offense and when moving the puck is so much of a plus (remember, Brodeur singled him out as a being quality player) that we can live with the minuses on the defensive end, which frankly some of the Oilers fanbase is guilty of cherry-picking specific one-on-one plays in open ice that even some all-star defensemen have trouble shutting down.

    BTW: We already have a top pairing defenseman in the system with Nurse, but too much of the fanbase is too impatient to wait the three years it’s going to take for him to develop into that guy.

  88. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This contract doesn’t say “13th forward,” it says 3rd liner:

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/1051

    You’ll get no argument from me on the ‘badness’ of Jones contract. Just responding to the earlier comment that “on a good team, Jones is the 13th forward”. As it currently stands, Jones is our 14th or so forward, and only playing because of the absence of Hall/Gagner/Smyth/Joensuu.

    That said, I would not be unhappy to see him take Gazdic’s spot… Jones stood up more relevantly for the RNH kneeing than Gazdic did.

  89. G Money says:

    russ99: I don’t get the criticism of J. Schultz. He’s a second year player with lots to learn on D. You can’t expect the guy to look like Chara out there.

    I’m OK with him making mistakes like a second year player. I have a big problem with a lack of concentration and intensity, and that seems to be JSchultz’s biggest issue in the defensive zone. That ridiculously casual giveaway, where he stood straight legged behind the net with the puck until the Kings player came and just poked it away from him, was symptomatic and infuriating.

    VOR: Vollman confirms that. I see nothing that tells me how we might fix Yakupov or for that matter how we might grade his play so far this season that we didn’t already know.

    Agreed.

    But I would suggest to you that this is a fallibility of humans, not metrics and statistics! A survey might indicate the frontrunning candidate in an election, but it tells you nothing about how any given individual will vote. Individuals are notoriously, I would say inherently and inescapably, unpredictable. Shades of Hari Seldon and the Psychohistorians!

    The Vollman charts as descriptors rather than prescriptors still do a pretty darn good job of showing who your actual good players are, and there is value in that.

  90. Logan91 says:

    godot10: There is a better version of Gilbert (and Grebeshkov)in OKC named of Fedun.The season is basically lost anyways.I’d really like to see what Ference-Fedun could accomplish.

    The season is lost? Where did it go????

  91. G Money says:

    thejonrmcleod: What kind of bears? Black? Brown? Grizzly? Polar? Koala? Panda? Teddy?

    What are they repeating? And why?

    commonfan14: Wow, out of nowhere with a direct slap in the face to rickithebear…

    The Jon: pretty sure he must mean rickithebear.

    http://d1uxo3lrkrg9rh.cloudfront.net/img/271fc10db45bf01487c50e7a1b0aec5e

  92. thejonrmcleod says:

    G Money,

    Yes, rickithebear does like to repeat himself.

  93. denny33 says:

    LMHF#1,

    These sort of skills are disappearing for the same reason players don’t protect themselves in the corners anymore and play the puck with their back to the play. They’re no longer taught to expect it beginning in minor hockey – in fact, some are taught to try to draw a penalty by leaving themselves vulnerable.
    Used to be simple – keep your head up, face the play and protect yourself. Not saying you take out rules against hitting from behind etc, but the additional preparedness for the person being hit needs to come back into the game.

    **************************************************************\

    A Couple of very notable players from the 80′s just talked about this on Off the Record – they are shocked at the modern day NHL player turning -towards – the boards.

    They had a word for it ……SUICIDE.

    Quite often – you actually see players turn towards the glass to protect the puck.

  94. denny33 says:

    commonfan14,

    denny33: I have been the harshest critic of J. Schultz

    Wow, out of nowhere with a direct slap in the face to rickithebear…

    *******************************************************************

    Yeah – you are right I better back down from that one….I mean you never know when you are going to meet a bear in the woods..

    Okay -I am in the top 5 harshest critic of J. Schultz….for balance his skating and offensive talent are incredible.

  95. FastOil says:

    denny33:
    commonfan14,

    denny33: I have been the harshest critic of J. Schultz

    Wow, out of nowhere with a direct slap in the face to rickithebear…

    *******************************************************************

    Okay -I am in thetop 5 harshest critic of J. Schultz….for balance his skating and offensive talent are incredible.

    I think everyone is just worried, to borrow Woodguy’s phrase, BecauseMAB.

    Hopefully Eakins will convince him playing D is part of being an NHL D.

  96. theres oil in virginia says:

    I like Bachman’s style of play better than Dubnyk’s and LaBarbera’s. My favorite moments of Dubnyk are where he’s moving well and in good position. Seems like he frustrates opposing offenses when he does that.

  97. GordM says:

    I heard a guy on the radio (Lowetide’s show I think) call Dubnyk a puck-blocker instead of a puck-stopper. Bachman looked more like a puck-stopper…I prefer watching a puck-stopper.

  98. Doomoil says:

    godot10: Hemsky should be Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg, or Rick Middleton.All MacT did was take an enigmatic underproductive offensive phenom and turn him into an enigmatic underproductive decent two-way player, instead of turning him into a superstar. You can try to coach players to reach their potential, not just to be good two-way players.Hemsky is a testament to MacT’s inability to coach or understand talent.His choice of Nilsson over Glencross is a 2nd testament to that fact.

    Trying to make Ryan Smyth in his prime a centre, trying to make Erik Cole a left wing, and trying to make Taylor Hall a centre a testament to believing in systems over maximizing the ability and recognizing the talents of individual players, and adjusting one’s systems accordingly.

    Aside:

    The “smartest man in the room” had his 3rd string goaltender dressed as the backup for the opening game of the Stanley Cup final in 2006, instead of a healthy 2nd string goaltender.

    So to sum it up: Hemsky isn’t one of the best players of his generation because MacTavish was a bad coach.

  99. bookje says:

    GordM:
    I heard a guy on the radio (Lowetide’s show I think) call Dubnyk a puck-blocker instead of a puck-stopper.Bachman looked more like a puck-stopper…I prefer watching a puck-stopper.

    This is exactly the problem in Edmonton regarding Dubnyk.

    Bad Thinking: I prefer small goalie X who looks good when making saves and even when getting beat over large goalie Y who doesn’t move around as much and looks worse when making saves and when getting beat.

    Better Thinking: I prefer the goalie that stops the most pucks from going in the net regardless of how is style looks to me.

  100. thejonrmcleod says:

    bookje,

    Please don’t offend the Gords.

  101. Mr DeBakey says:

    I prefer small goalie X who looks good when making saves

    Andy Moog owned this town. Owned it.

    What happens when your tall goalie isn’t competing and can’t handle the pressure?
    An Andy Moog move-alike is the answer

  102. Bos8 says:

    I’ve watched Hall do the same thing over and over – blast up the ice, balls to the wall to no effect. He doesn’t change speed, no variation, nothing. Oh I forgot, there’s a wrist shot from the boards. Wooah. A D angles him off, he tries to skate faster. Gee, has everyone been struck by a case of dumbs?

    Watching Pitlick skate into that hip check was painful to watch. From a bright future to truckdriver in one easy sequence. Dearly beloved, let us pray.

    It is to weep.

  103. hunter1909 says:

    bookje: This is exactly the problem in Edmonton regarding Dubnyk.

    The problem with Dubnyk is exactly based on his appalling save%. Also not 100% sure but with reduced stuffing his “basement chesterfield” style suffers.

  104. oilersfan says:

    cujo was 5’11 and I believe halak is 5’11. not too many other goalies under 6’0 that you here of the last 10 years that were any good.

    Bachman is 5’10 so it would be good to see any other goalies who also were drafted late bloom around 25. cujo was 24 when he became a starter in st. Louis.

    I went to one site that said Hasek was 5’11 but according to hockey db he is 6’1. anybody know how tall he really is?

    also according to hockeydb Patrick Roy is only 5’11 which surprises me.

  105. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    Vor,

    Have you read what Steve Burtch was trying to do with his SDI (shut down index) for Dmen?

    Its pretty well agreed that Dmen don’t drive corsi and Steve tries to come up with a better index for Dmen.

    Interesting stuff.

    I think there is a flaw (probably in the shots against/60) that seems to rate 3rd pairing Dmen higher than what you would expect, but its interesting.

    Make sure to read the links to the work leading up to the SDI.

    He has correlations

    Part 1 http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/29/4324054/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-1

    Part 2 http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/30/4570108/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-2

  106. Zipdot says:

    oilersfan: cujo was 5’11 and I believe halak is 5’11. not too many other goalies under 6’0 that you here of the last 10 years that were any good.

    Bachman is 5’10 so it would be good to see any other goalies who also were drafted late bloom around 25. cujo was 24 when he became a starter in st. Louis.

    I went to one site that said Hasek was 5’11 but according to hockey db he is 6’1. anybody know how tall he really is?

    also according to hockeydb Patrick Roy is only 5’11 which surprises me.

    Osgood is 5’10″. Check out this neat article: http://ingoalmag.com/general/nhl-goalies-have-grown-a-lot-over-the-last-decade/

  107. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Mark Spector @SportsnetSpec

    LAK’s Kyle Clifford fined $2756.41 for his kneeing incident on EDM’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Sunday in L.A. One-half of one day’s pay.

  108. godot10 says:

    Doomoil: So to sum it up: Hemsky isn’t one of the best players of his generation because MacTavish was a bad coach.

    More precisely. Hemsky wasn’t of the best players of his generation because MacT was a good systems coach, but poor developer of talent and human potential. For 95% of hockey players being a good systems coach is enough. For the other 5% of hockey players, it isn’t.

    Justin Schultz is very similar to Hemsky in this respect, borderline outliers. Paajarvi and Yakupov, are both what I would call full outliers, that require a lot of individual specific coaching and mentorship.

  109. Bos8 says:

    godot10: More precisely.Hemsky wasn’t of the best players of his generation because MacT was a good systems coach,but poor developer of talent and human potential.For 95% of hockey players being a good systems coach is enough.For the other 5% of hockey players, it isn’t.

    Justin Schultz is very similar to Hemsky in this respect, borderline outliers. Paajarvi and Yakupov, are both what I would call full outliers, that require a lot of individual specific coaching and mentorship.

    QFT

    I think Hemsky with the Mad Russian was the penultimate. Saucer pass, slot, whiff – Oops.

  110. rickithebear says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    G Money,

    Yes, rickithebear does like to repeat himself.

    Funny the wife says that!

    it is the same thing i think when i here the corsi girls defend there corsi boyfriend to there hockey parents. he is the answer!

    1 Attack wave
    2 pocesion in zone
    3 puck direscted at net -
    4 location of release
    5 type of release
    6 path of release-
    7 blocked/not
    8 location of shot
    9 location of goalie
    10 goalie strength
    11 goal /not

    Yup!
    Corsi is the be all of pocession versus result(goals)!

    bears?
    Born in churchill like polar bears!
    though we had gun escorts during halloween.

    Worked for parks Canada.
    Tourists had circled a black bear. It was getting the huff going .
    Junped off work truck and forced the tourists to open the circle.
    the bear bolted and went to the trees.
    Some do, Some watch!

    Playing in France with a friend from wales. Who knew of the stories from other friends.
    Pulled part of my ear off the skull. 6 staples the attach the skin. goop , tape and back on the pitch.
    The friend turned to the coach and said do not worry he was raised by a family of bears.
    rickithebear!
    37 stitches at the hospital to fix it.

  111. Bos8 says:

    Dead Cat Bounce:
    Mark Spector @SportsnetSpec

    LAK’s Kyle Clifford fined $2756.41 for his kneeing incident on EDM’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Sunday in L.A. One-half of one day’s pay.

    I like LMHF’s solution better. “Stick in the skates”. To talk to a mule, you have to get his attention.

    You get two minutes for tripping, he gets to have his life flash before his eyes.

  112. Zipdot says:

    Bos8: I think Hemsky with the Mad Russian was the penultimate. Saucer pass, slot, whiff – Oops.

    Penultimate means “second last”. So I don’t get this.

  113. Bos8 says:

    Zipdot: Penultimate means “second last”.So I don’t get this.

    You’re right

    I don’t think penultimate means what I thought it did.

    (Hides chastened face)

  114. Zipdot says:

    Bos8: You’re right

    I don’t think penultimate means what I thought it did.

    (Hides chastened face)

    Hehe, poor guy.. :)

    I think most of us have been there before. Well, not Steve Smith, but most of us!

  115. Bos8 says:

    Zipdot: Hehe, poor guy..

    I think most of us have been there before.Well, not Steve Smith, but most of us!

    That’s gracious of you.

    When you’ve been got good – Acknowledge, wipe your nose and carry on.

  116. DeadmanWaking says:

    Over time Godot has become a bit of a Frankenweeter. He was better understated.

    I have this image of a quadriplegic Spongebob with his spaghettinis plucked out–those daffodil stamens he called limbs–hoisted up onto Stark’s quickie bench to cross-fit a groinal attachment ball socket–it was Kyrten’s idea–now derisively sporting R2-D2′s stovepipe swivelpod foreknuckle–this was also Kyrten’s idea–before finally affixing his torso into suggestive tripod recumbence upon R2-D2′s Kubota-shouldered, castor-dragging, telescopic hind-girders. S2-B2 rides again!

    To complete the conversion you thoroughly gut Spongebob’s viscera with a handy watersaber (picked up on the cheap from the Nabooine pawn shop–this one embossed J. J. on the hilt) to pack in such a bodacious buda woofer that his monolithic gills flare. Mid-range is back-vented from a sphagnum cavity anchored to Spongebob’s Nomex sternum gristle, which is concealed from view behind a Spongegrill choral reef. Next you pressure-fit some electrostatic nipple tweeters onto the broad expanse of his burly lemon chest. Finally–the delicate step–working with a steady hand to not dribble any lead solder into the Spongebob bubble wrap, you complete the cross-over.

    Much the same for Spongebobbet–these things travel in pairs. Only this time ditch the electrostatic nipple tweeters for some conical horns (what EVE might look like if she ever reached puberty), also in proud recumbence; the mismatched acoustic focal points falling a little short of Linn Sondek–but you are still living in a dorm room after all.

    Godot often had this nicely understated tube amplifier if you listened carefully. It used to drive a competent pair of bookshelf speakers–but then things changed. Chewy dropped by with a two-four and drowned out the music. It’s hard to hear the old Godot through these four-foot tall S2-B2 Frankenweeters. “Is he still in there?” we wonder and wait.

  117. FastOil says:

    With goalies there is the thing that it’s easier to draft a big goalie that occupies a lot of net space than a good goalie.

    I would not be surprised to see the trend change with the equipment change and less interference allowed. Smaller equipment gives mobility and reaction time more importance it would seem.

  118. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje: This is exactly the problem in Edmonton regarding Dubnyk.

    Bad Thinking: I prefer small goalie X who looks good when making saves and even when getting beat over large goalie Y who doesn’t move around as much and looks worse when making saves and when getting beat.

    Better Thinking:I prefer the goalie that stops the most pucks from going in the net regardless of how is style looks to me.

    For the sake of clarity, since it was my post that birthed this (today at least), I don’t prefer a mobile goalie who lets in more goals to a big and less-mobile goalie who lets in less goals. I simply like watching the mobile goalie more. It’s simply a matter of taste. I think you’re right though, that most people like the more mobile goalie (he really looks better moving around and making those saves look tough), and that works against Dubnyk, et al. I like pre-2013-14 Dubnyk just fine, as I said above.

    I wonder if there’s an advantage to having a big “puck blocker” and a small “puck stopper” so that you can choose who starts depending on the opposition’s style. Could one be better suited than the other to play against certain teams/styles?

  119. Old School G says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    Are you a fan of David Foster Wallace?

  120. bookje says:

    Zipdot: Hehe, poor guy..

    I think most of us have been there before.Well, not Steve Smith, but most of us!

    Well, Steve Smith is the penultimate wordsmith so…

  121. sliderule says:

    The thing about Bachman was at least last night he was able to pick the puck up on long shots even the partly screened ones.

    Dubnyk has trouble picking up the puck on even unscreened long shots.

    In case you haven’t noticed every team has picked up on this and are shooting to score not just dump it in from anywhere close to the blue line.

    The team can recover from bad goals in close but those long shots that look like a bantam goalie could stop really are killers

  122. theres oil in virginia says:

    sliderule,
    Near sighted?

  123. spoiler says:

    If Bachman was recalled under the 48 hour goalie minor injury exemption rule, or whatever it is called, we should be hearing pretty shortly whther he is staying or sent back, no?

  124. G Money says:

    Hanzal suspended two games for his elbow to Petry’s head.

    Clifford fined NHL maximum for knee on knee hit with RNH.

    In NHL referee world, the first was a minor penalty, the second no penalty at all.

  125. VOR says:

    woodguy,

    As far as I can tell SDI starts with the assumption corsi works but is flawed for defencemen and then tries to develop a metric that addresses some of the obvious flaws. What I can’t see is any proof that SDI is reflected in goal metrics. In other words, does SDI predict who will be the best shut down dman when it matters, ie. when it comes to giving up the least goals and also if it predicts something like +/- ON for 60.

    Corsi’s critics are right about one thing, what matters is winning and winning comes from outscoring the other team however you get there. Any measure of possession needs to at least correlate with on ice outcomes in the real world of goals for and against in order to be anything more than another derived stat, albeit a fascinating and well thought out one in SDI’s case.

  126. gcw_rocks says:

    Some quibbles with the wildly optimistic view of MacT’s work:

    Signed D Andrew Ference. Add in the terrible contract and this is a down arrow.

    Signed L Jesse Joensuu. It looked good early, then he was injured again, then he sucked, then he was injured again. Down arrow.

    Signed C Will Acton. Can’t actually play NHL hockey. Down arrow for saddling the team with an AHLer when NHLers were available.

    Signed L Ryan Hamilton. We have seen enough. Another AHLer when an NHLer was needed. Down arrow..

    Signed G Richard Bachman. He has delivered at both levels. Its early but he has to get an up arrow.

    Signed R Ryan Jones. Waived him, then forced to play him because the alternatives MacT assembled were even worse. Down arrow.

    Claimed L Steve MacIntyre on waivers. Wasting a contract spot. Down arrow.
    .
    Clained L Luke Gazdic. Can’t play hockey. Clearly not deterring other teams from running the Oilers best players. Another wasted contract spot and a wasted roster spot. Down arrow.

    Traded R Mike Brown to San Jose for a 4th round pick in 2014. Gold. Plus arrow. I don’t disagree with this assessment, I am just so amazed he pulled that off that I think its worth repeating.

    Clearly adding Belov, Perron, Gordon, and dumping Horcoff and Brown are all good things and MacT deserves credit for those moves, but there is a lot of crap in on his short resume as well. In particular not reading the market that some real NHLers were going to be available cheap this year and instead burning spots on long shots like Joensuu, Hamilton and Acton were really dumb moves and the whole goon-fest thing.

    We need another 8 games or so to be sure, but right now it looks like MacT assembled another lottery team. The math says this is not a play off team. We wait. But if this team misses the playoffs again, are we still supposed to trust him?

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