My guess is they make a move. Dallas Eakins’ quotes are certainly on topic and ring true, but something’s gotta give and the boiling point may be soon. Or not.
I did not come to “shot differential” with open arms and I did not adopt is as gospel my first Sunday. In regard to advanced stats I like to gather in the information, roll it around in my mind, ask questions, make scurrilous comments about the new stat (“it’s ruining the game!”) and then finally, grudgingly, give in to the force. Not all stats are created equal, and God knows not all stats have extreme value.
- Hawerchuk: Together, Fenwick/Corsi and Luck account for around 3/4 of team winning percentage. What’s the remainder? Goaltending talent – which Tom Awad estimates at about 5% – and special teams, along with a very small sliver that’s due to shooting talent and the oft-mentioned “shot quality.”
Ladies, when you’re presented with evidence–and this is over many seasons–that suggests Corsi is a stronger predictor of future success than previous wins, then you need to be aware of it. And the best lesson available should be this season in Edmonton and Toronto.
- Oilers 1 win 3 losses, 49.8% Corsi for % (158-159 5×5)
- Leafs 4 wins 1 loss, 45.6 Corsi for % (208-248 5×5)
It’s important to note that this is a minute sample size, and we can’t run around preaching these numbers as gospel. Even an 82 game snapshot has its warts, but we should be able to settle on a few things by game 15 or 20 this season. Honestly, sometimes it never does correct, as was the case last year when Toronto posted a 44.1 Corsi for (league worst) and made the playoffs. The Oilers were 44.6% one year ago, and the current number suggests an amazing improvement. We have to be aware of sample size, but this is encouraging (and Tyler’s rolling 3′s game snapshots are showing how marked the improvement has been for the Oilers this year).
- Dallas Eakins: “Improvement is nice, but it’s not good enough yet… It’d be nice to see us get a few breaks.”
Luck. Remember that old Hee Haw song “if it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all”? That’s about where the Oilers find themselves this morning. There are things that they could do to improve their lot:
- The 4line looked exposed last night in a home game. When Joensuu draws in next game, the smart play would be to slot him in on the third line and move Smyth to 4line (replacing Brown).
- Being patient with Yakupov. He’s a lightning rod player, but there’s a mountain of talent there too. The Oilers need to find a way.
- Grebeshkov is ready to come back in, the right call from here for a HS would be Nick Schultz.
I don’t think making a trade is the answer at this point. This time of year it’s tough to do a deal, everyone sees you coming. I’d suggest Edmonton’s next big acquisitions should be Joensuu and Gagner. It’s not as exciting as a trade, but it’s also not going to the cupboard and sending away Marincin in a fit of pique.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy day and of course we’ll read your twitter messages (@Lowetide_) and texts (10-1260). On the Lowdown tsn 1260 at 10:
- Scott Cullen from tsn. Hertl, Thornton, panic in Edmonton and Toronto rocking the early season.
- Jeff Chapman from Copper and Blue. We’ll break down last night’s game and talk about the road trip.
- Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports. I want to know what he thinks of Hertl-Thornton, plus the early season television broadcasts from each network.
- Andreas Morse from FC Edmonton. Eddies had a big win last weekend and have to keep it going. There are also some roster changes in the air.
- Jungle Jim Hunter tweeted out this week “Trust the NHLers to criticize Hertl for doing something creative. I wish these arrogant NHLers would get over themselves. Wow! so immature” and we’ll follow up.
It’s going to be a fun send off to the long weekend!