WHAT NOW?

As day dawns and we begin to really worry about Taylor Hall, it’s probably a good time to reflect on the impact this young man has had on the Oilers as a team. It’s always easiest to put these things per 82 games, so let’s do that:

  1. John Tavares 32-39-71
  2. Taylor Hall 31-39-70
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 20-42-62
  4. Tyler Seguin 23-28-51
  5. Nail Yakupov 25-23-48

That’s a very effective player we’re talking about here, and losing Hall for a long period of time would hurt this team terribly. However, that’s not the most devastating thing to ponder here, as time lost has to be added onto “possible loss of footspeed upon return” and that’s the knife to the heart. Now, let’s not go off half cocked here, we don’t know how bad it is and we do know they haven’t put him in crutches or rushed him off to the hospital. It looks bad, but is it? hall hit gif

 

I’d like to ask a couple of questions (and warn trolling boats to move along) of the group. #1: What is your best solution in the short term? #2: Based on the information available (video, Principe’s tweet, God knows there’s a doctor or two in this crowd) what are we looking at here?

Responsible replies please, I don’t want any “they should have wrecked Spezza posts” because it does nothing but angry up the blood. Thanks.

Added: Taylor Hall has flown to Edmonton to see Oiler doctors.

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170 Responses to "WHAT NOW?"

  1. kosiork says:

    1. In the short term, I think we get a look at a few guys from OKC (Pitlick, Omark, etc.) If we do end up making the quality for quantity deal, these guys may be in play and a good showing might help our cause.

    2. In the long term, I think we hope and pray. Maybe Messier can have a talk with Hall about how to play with an edge but still protect yourself.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Joanne Ireland ‏@jirelandEJ 1m
    Taylor Hall has flown back to Edmonton for further evaluation of his left knee. #Oilers

  3. oliveoilers says:

    I am thinking that if there is a silver lining to be had from this, it’s the way the team tightened way up after learning Hall wasn’t coming back. If we didn’t need to worry about the goaltending, then we should be fine without Hall for a few games or more. I thinking/hoping Charlie horse a la Clutterbuck, as I didn’t see much lateral movement from Hall’s knee.

  4. Woodguy says:

    This gif shows the impact at a slower rate.

    Ugly.

    https://vine.co/v/hdemwBzAZjm

  5. Manitoba Oilers says:

    Hall has flown back to edmonton
    Via Prencipe

  6. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    This gif shows the impact at a slower rate.

    Ugly. Poor guy. I really wish they’d taken him out of the game before the penalty and then the rush.

  7. Colonel Obvious says:

    In the short term it means more minutes for Ryan Jones. Which is, of course, awful news.

    In the longer term, once Gagner is back, it’s one body in, one body out. Gagner simply takes Hall’s spot and everything else stays the same

  8. oilgreg says:

    Ganger may be ready to go as early as Tuesday. Knowing that McT wants to try him on the wing, Hall’s injury opens a spot for him.

    Should Gagner not be ready for the Montreal game, Jones is a guy that can slide up and down ( and out) of the line-up.

    I’d leave Pitlick and Omark where they are for now. One good weekend … Now it is up to them to build on this to force a call-up. When we are talking call-up when there is no injury, that is when the time is right.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Nuge-Yakupov-Eberle
    Arcobello-Perron-Hemsky
    Gordon-Smyth-Jones

    That’s how I’d do it. And then callup Lander and go Acton-Lander-Brown/Gazdic. Lander can help on the PK and he’s a natural center.

  10. Profit says:

    Hall flying back to Edmonton isn’t necessarily a tell either way.

    It was probably obvious he wasn’t going to play in Montreal and with Washington at home as the next game, it gives him a few more days off. So if it isn’t that serious that would be the call.

    And if it is serious, then they’d obviously fly him back right away.

    I don’t think we can assume anything from the move. As for a replacement, have we heard anything about Gagner? I thought I read he and Grebs had joined the team, Grebs played, so maybe Gagner is ready to go shortly?

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    To hop to the questions:

    1) I think Omark has to be involved here and the surplus at RW probably has to sidle over. Maybe they try:

    RNH-Perron-Yak
    Arco-Omark-Eberle
    Gordon-Smyth-Hemsky

    I think that is your top 9, shuffled as the coach tries to find combos he likes.

    2) I can’t help out here other than to say, I’m not even sure the question is worth posing here. I just don’t see how we can possibly know. So many things look worse/better than they are.

  12. LostBoy says:

    If he’s gone for any length of time, I don’t think it requires any real moves with Gagner on the verge of return. Maybe somebody gets a cup of coffee until then. The beneficiary of this, though it feels off to speak of it in those terms, is probably Arcobello. I’d bring Samwise back on RW. Yakupov stays on LW for now and Perron moves back over to his off wing. Something like:

    Yakupov-Nuge-Eberle
    Perron-Arcobello-Gagner
    Smyth-Gordon-Hemsky

  13. Woodguy says:

    Note: Not a doctor, but have awful knees so somewhat familiar with some of this stuff. I could be very wrong.

    The way his knee bends at impact probably stressed the MCL (ligament stabilizing the knee on the inside of the leg. Not inside the knee itself that’s the ACL)

    Whether the stress caused a strain, tear, rupture, ripped off the bone, is unknown right now. The timeline to recover depends on what damage was actually done to the MCL (assuming its the MCL)

    A first degree sprain is damage to only a few ligament fibres. – Treatment time 3 weeks.

    A second degree sprain is damage to a more extensive number of ligament fibres, but the ligament remains intact. Treatment time 6-8 weeks.

    A third degree sprain is a complete rupture of the ligament. Because of the force involved in this injury other structures in the knee, such as the Meniscus (Cartilage) or the Anterior Cruciate Ligament can also be damaged. – Treatment time – surgery gone for the year source: http://www.physioroom.com/injuries/knee/medial_collateral_ligament_sprain_full.php

    You can blow the MCL apart and still walk. When you put pressure on the knee that requires the MCL to stabilize it is when you realize that there’s a problem as the knee starts to move in ways it doesn’t when the MCL is doing its job.

    Much like Hall coming down the wing, setting for a shot and then pulling up when the knee just didn’t feel right.

    Just because Hall was able to somewhat walk to the dressing room doesn’t mean its not bad.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Nuge-Yakupov-Eberle
    Arcobello-Perron-Hemsky
    Gordon-Smyth-Jones

    That’s how I’d do it. And then callup Lander and go Acton-Lander-Brown/Gazdic. Lander can help on the PK and he’s a natural center.

    I think you have to keep Hemsky with Gordon for a line that can take on toughs.

    Moving Hemsky off that line weakens the defensive ability of both lines.

    The real bitch here is that coaches chase Hall with their 1st pairing D, which has left the 2nd line some softer ice and that has been RNH’s line lately.

    Now the opposing coach can load up against one line and not worry about the 2nd line as much.

    Gagner getting back soon really, really helps this.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On to other matters…

    I missed the game yesterday, but was heartened to see variance fly home for a change. Still, that’s the kind of win that leaves a giant ball of terror in your throat.

    Again, I didn’t see it, but the numbers look awful. Did the game watch as bad as the stats say? The last 3 games have been an implosion of our “corsi” excitement. I can’t say which is the signal and which is the noise (our early solid start or our recent poor play), but I sincerely hope the team can find some corsi success back home.

    Last 3 games corsi numbers 5×5:

    86CF 131CA = 39.63%

    yuck.

    ———
    Looks like Toronto is back to earth. You can watch the idiots on TSN (“reporters”) debate Toronto and Oilers this morning over here:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/

  16. Lowetide says:

    I see David Staples tweeting something about a suspension. Really? I hadn’t heard that.

  17. boxman says:

    The Oilers have the talent to make up for Hall somewhat in the short term. My problem is teams are targeting Hall and our younger talent for extra abuse and we are not answering. I’m even “older” than you Lowetide and I remember well what happened if someone went near Gretzky. It’s true that times have changed but human nature doesn’t. There are players who are fearless but that is a small minority ( check out the Oilers ). If we could intimidate the majority of players on the other team our stars would only have 2 or 3 cement heads out there to worry about. For those who believe NHL players can’t be intimidated you only have to see what is happening in our own backyard.

  18. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I see David Staples tweeting something about a suspension. Really? I hadn’t heard that.

    He put up a suspension poll during the game.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Again, I didn’t see it, but the numbers look awful. Did the game watch as bad as the stats say?

    Yeah, it was awful to watch too.

    The kind of game that one goalie loses and the other wins.

  20. D says:

    Lowetide:
    I see David Staples tweeting something about a suspension. Really? I hadn’t heard that.

    It seems more like David is posing the question than reporting that it’s going to happen? Not sure – but it follows up on his Journal article as well.

    My two cents – the team will be fine without Hall if they’re starting to adjust to a more structured playing system. They probably would have lost in Ottawa without stellar Dubnyk play, but they seemed to have calmed down a bit on ice. If most of the players are on the same page, it’s easier to adapt to losing Hall than if the team was winning because of a handful of key players.

  21. Lowetide says:

    boxman:
    The Oilers have the talent to make up for Hall somewhat in the short term. My problem is teams are targeting Hall and our younger talent for extra abuse and we are not answering. I’m even “older” than you Lowetide and I remember well what happened if someone went near Gretzky. It’s true that times have changed but human nature doesn’t. There are players who are fearless but that is a small minority ( check out the Oilers ). If we could intimidate the majority of players on the other team our stars would only have 2 or 3 cement heads out there to worry about. For those who believe NHL players can’s be intimidated you only have to see what is happening in our own backyard.

    The rule changes since Semenko-Gretzky make that sort of thing impossible. I’m actually shocked Gryba is going to be suspended. Seriously.

  22. fuzzy muppet says:

    Woodguy,

    Agreed. That 3rd line can take on the toughs to free up Yak for the soft stuff.

  23. Zack says:

    Losing Hall will have a large impact on this team but I have to admit our top six doesn’t look that bad, especially with Gagner returning eventually (probably before Hall).

    The silver lining is that I don’t think Hall put himself in a position, like previous injuries, were something a lot more serious could have occurred, he was more aware of the play. Secondly with him going back out it couldn’t have been that serious (only a tweak probably) and hopefully he’s only out for a couple weeks at most. The real damage probably occurred when he went back out there.

    Also if we do make it close to the post season and there is a fire sale with Florida, sending some pick(s) or mid level d prospect for Thomas would be very interesting.

  24. DBO says:

    Hoping for the best, planning for him to have ACL tear and he is done for the year. Crappy for him being an Olympic year.

    Is Joensuu close to being ready? He would help. But it means Yak is a LW now for sure, and I expect we see Gagner sooner rather then later.

    Yak-Nuge-Eberle (Still a real # line. Yak gets his chance)
    Perron-Gagner-Hemsky
    Smyth-Gordon-Joensuu
    Jones-Acton/Arcobello-Brown/Gazdic (Jones and Arco means they can play more)

    Not world killers, but the 1st line is a real #1. The 2nd line should feed on lower comp. The 3rd line should be solid, and has size to play the D role. The 4th line ideally would be Jones-Acton-Arco, but doubt it happens.

  25. flyfish1168 says:

    Hoping just a deep bruised thigh. Hopefully no worst that a sprained Medical collateral ligament (MCL). Still think it was a border line hit and should get fine.

    Wish the hockey gods will give us lots of love soon.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Again, I didn’t see it, but the numbers look awful. Did the game watch as bad as the stats say?

    Yeah, it was awful to watch too.

    The kind of game that one goalie loses and the other wins.

    In one respect that is good to hear. Dubnyk, two games in a row, solid. And, I really liked his attitude after the game: “We’re not going to lose this one” or something.

    There’s the phantom “drive/passion” etc. and “steal one” the fans keep braying for from Dubs.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: The rule changes since Semenko-Gretzky make that sort of thing impossible. I’m actually shocked Gryba is going to be suspended. Seriously.

    Interestingly, I bet a suspension on Gryba (even on the assumption it wasn’t his intention/fault) sends a much stronger message to the league than Gazdic trying to fight Neal or something else completely pointless.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DBO: Is Joensuu close to being ready? He would help. But it means Yak is a LW now for sure, and I expect we see Gagner sooner rather then later.

    I really hope they don’t rush him. Looks like they did last time. He didn’t play very well in those 2 games after he came back.

    Just sort it out and come back when you are actually ready please.

    ps. On Joensuu I know he had surgery for a hernia… and I really wonder about his health… I mean hernia and back kind of ring bells of evil colluding together to destroy your body.*

    *I should however, take my own advice above and lay off the armchair medicine.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Interestingly, I bet a suspension on Gryba (even on the assumption it wasn’t his intention/fault) sends a much stronger message to the league than Gazdic trying to fight Neal or something else completely pointless.

    I’m sorry, just don’t see it. HOW do we come up with intent? The game is flying so fast, are we able to assign intent on that play? I’m not even sure it qualifies as reckless! It was a hockey play. I believe David because he wouldn’t just throw that out there (Staples tweeted there might be an increase in games based on severity of Hall’s injury) but lordy I don’t see how they get to proving intent.

  30. Southern Oil says:

    Oilers just tweeted that Eberle is not on the ice for practice. Did anyone see anything in the game concerning Ebs?

  31. LostBoy says:

    Lowetide: The rule changes since Semenko-Gretzky make that sort of thing impossible. I’m actually shocked Gryba is going to be suspended. Seriously.

    Is there anything definite indicating the league is looking at it? In realtime it didn’t look bad, but that’s a little bit because of the camera angle and the fact that because Hall had him beat to the outside it looked like a glancing blow. Gryba turned and nearly had his back to the camera. When you look at the frame by frame gif, though, it’s a blatant knee on knee. He led with the cocked knee. I have no idea as to intent, but I’m a lot more sympathetic about Hall slashing him, which seemed selfish at the time. It’s the kind of play that when it’s more clear what actually happened, someone immediately starts pounding on the evildoer. I can see Hall’s frustration that noone basically noticed.

  32. SkipIsChris says:

    Lowetide,

    Using yours as a template, LT, I’d put Jones back on the 4th where you had Lander, put Hemmer where you had Jones, then Lander where you had Hemmer. Then Gags could replace Lander upon his return and the other 3 lines could remain uninterrupted…assuming they need no interruption.

  33. mustang says:

    Gyrba deserves a suspension, he lead with his knee. I don’t think Hall could have done anything different to protect himself.If someone is going to knee you there isn’t much you can do about it.
    It’s to bad, Hall was returning to form hope it’s not to serious. Well I hope the league starts to look after the star players because fellow team mates can’t.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Southern Oil:
    Oilers just tweeted that Eberle is not on the ice for practice.Did anyone see anything in the game concerning Ebs?

    He got roughed up toward the end of the game, defenseman took him out very hard and he may have hit the boards (don’t recall). Anyway, he was down on the ice for a couple of seconds.

  35. OilClog says:

    I’m shocked the league is going to suspend someone for taking a dirty liberty on the Oilers. Is this the Messier effect?

    I guess Halls Olympic chances are now kaput, would of been nice to see the team get just a little nasty even. No luck.

    With the panthers fire sale, any chance we bring in a Boyes? What would Perron say? Perron is the 2nd coming of Jeebus.

  36. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    I saw LT’s post this morning, saw the GIF and thought, “That amount of lateral impact… I’d bet an MCL” and then went about getting a couple things done, thinking of how best to explain knee ligaments and modes of injury. I’d just sat down with a coffee and logged in intending to write a post about it only to see you’ve done it for me! So… I agree. Obviously it’s impossible to know until he gets examined and he’ll likely get an MRI.

    Hopefully it’s a low grade tear and we’re looking at somewhere in the time frame of a few weeks.

    This is good news for Arcobello. If Gagner’s still a couple games away, I’d give Omark a look, but I think there’s a strong chance Gagner slots in on Tuesday. I suspect Arcobello stays playing centre with Gagner shifting to the right wing and Yakupov/Perron both playing on the left side.

    Nuge-Yak-Eberle (don’t split up the only line that worked)
    Arco-Perron-Gagner (small, but I actually think this is the grittiest of the top 3 lines)
    Gordon-Smyth-Hemsky (I like this line together by eye, even if the corsi didn’t go well for them)

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I’m sorry, just don’t see it. HOW do we come up with intent? The game is flying so fast, are we able to assign intent on that play? I’m not even sure it qualifies as reckless! It was a hockey play. I believe David because he wouldn’t just throw that out there (Staples tweeted there might be an increase in games based on severity of Hall’s injury) but lordy I don’t see how they get to proving intent.

    I’ve never been convinced “intent” matters that much. It is such a fungible concept, prone to a lot of bias.

    If you simply evaluate the event as it took place, a knee struck a knee (an illegal check in the eyes of the NHL). That is a dangerous play. The NHL is supposed to eliminate, or at least try to reduce and mitigate, dangerous plays.

    For my money the NHL shouldn’t be morality police. They should enforce the rules. It is irrelevant whether it was intentional or not.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Don’t know if it was mentioned last night, but during 1st period intermission of the CAL-SJS game, Cherry and Ron looked at the Gryba hit a few times in slo-mo and Cherry was decidedly on the side that Gyrba was in the wrong and reckless and exonerated Hall for the slash:

    http://www.cbc.ca/player/Sports/Top+Stories/ID/2413143451/?sort=MostRecent

    I wouldn’t be surprised if most thought initially no investigation was warranted… but on second look and after Cherry says something, I bet the NHL takes a long look at it (isn’t to say they do something about it).

  39. Southern Oil says:

    Stauffer just tweeted re: Ebs:
    “For those asking I assume just a maintenance day for Eberle…we will ask Eakins after practice”. I don’t know why I am typing this up – assuming everyone sees these things also.

  40. wheatnoil says:

    Southern Oil:
    Stauffer just tweeted re: Ebs:
    “For those asking I assume just a maintenance day for Eberle…we will ask Eakins after practice”.I don’t know why I am typing this up – assuming everyone sees these things also.

    Not everyone. Maybe others disagree, but I like it people put up relevant tweets / posts, especially when it’s about a topic of discussion. It’s easy to miss this info.

  41. boxman says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t believe they necessarily have to prove intent but rather carelessness. Are players not now responsible for opposing players in a vulnerable position? Would this not apply to knee collisions as well as hits to the head? If you go to hit a player are you not responsible as much for a shot to the knees as much as a shot to the head?

  42. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    wheatnoil: Not everyone. Maybe others disagree, but I like it people put up relevant tweets / posts, especially when it’s about a topic of discussion. It’s easy to miss this info.

    Count me in here too! I don’t twitter, so unless I make a point of looking up tsn tweets or something, I don’t know what is being said. Always appreciate a post.

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    OilClog: With the panthers fire sale, any chance we bring in a Boyes? What would Perron say? Perron is the 2nd coming of Jeebus.

    Kulikov please!

  44. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Woodguy,

    I saw LT’s post this morning, saw the GIF and thought, “That amount of lateral impact… I’d bet an MCL” and then went about getting a couple things done, thinking of how best to explain knee ligaments and modes of injury. I’d just sat down with a coffee and logged in intending to write a post about it only to see you’ve done it for me! So… I agree. Obviously it’s impossible to know until he gets examined and he’ll likely get an MRI.

    Hopefully it’s a low grade tear and we’re looking at somewhere in the time frame of a few weeks.

    This is good news for Arcobello. If Gagner’s still a couple games away, I’d give Omark a look, but I think there’s a strong chance Gagner slots in on Tuesday. I suspect Arcobello stays playing centre with Gagner shifting to the right wing and Yakupov/Perron both playing on the left side.

    Nuge-Yak-Eberle (don’t split up the only line that worked)
    Arco-Perron-Gagner (small, but I actually think this is the grittiest of the top 3 lines)
    Gordon-Smyth-Hemsky (I like this line together by eye, even if the corsi didn’t go well for them)

    Yeah, the one “good thing” if its a MCL is that braces are very effective.

    Since the MCL basically acts as an stabalizer you can replicate that with a good brace.

    If its just a small amount of fiber damage he can be back in 2 weeks with a brace.

    I think the most telling thing is that he thought he was ok until he put pressure on his knee in a certain way and pulled up. That screams MCL. You don’t know you’ve hurt it until you need it.

  45. Lowetide says:

    boxman: If you simply evaluate the event as it took place, a knee struck a knee (an illegal check in the eyes of the NHL). That is a dangerous play. The NHL is supposed to eliminate, or at least try to reduce and mitigate, dangerous plays.

    If it’s a head hit, I agree. There is very little (imo) history for this being a suspension.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’m sorry, just don’t see it. HOW do we come up with intent? The game is flying so fast, are we able to assign intent on that play? I’m not even sure it qualifies as reckless! It was a hockey play. I believe David because he wouldn’t just throw that out there (Staples tweeted there might be an increase in games based on severity of Hall’s injury) but lordy I don’t see how they get to proving intent.

    Tyler’s changing his tune on this.

    At first he thought “shit happens”, now…


    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 9h
    Gryba’s got priors with the league. Hall didn’t change his angle or anything. I bet Gryba gets a fine.
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More

    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 9h
    @ryandittrick I’m kind of re-visiting my view on this hit. Gryba was beaten and had no way to make a clean hit.
    View conversation

  47. Southern Oil says:

    Woodguy: Yeah, the one “good thing” if its a MCL is that braces are very effective.

    Since the MCL basically acts as an stabalizer you can replicate that with a good brace.

    If its just a small amount of fiber damage he can be back in 2 weeks with a brace.

    I think the most telling thing is that he thought he was ok until he put pressure on his knee in a certain way and pulled up.That screams MCL.You don’t know you’ve hurt it until you need it.

    Appreciate the posts as I don’t have a history with knee troubles (and as a result no knowledge). If it was an ACL, I assume he would not be able to put weight on it – is that fair?

  48. Racki says:

    I think the biggest impact of losing Hall will be to the 3rd line / i.e. depth in scoring. The team has been weaker on the left side for a while, but with Yakupov moving to LW recently, this will mean more opportunity for him. They also could use Perron on the LW again too (he took the last game at RW). This should benefit Hemsky a bit, as he’ll likely jump off the line with Smytty and Gordon.

    It definitely is not ideal, but I don’t see it as too huge of a problem. It certainly isn’t ideal though, no.

    I’m hoping they call up Pitlick, as I’ve been wanting to see him some more. I’m not really interested in another look at Omark, myself.

    Really though, with Hall out, someone just needs to pick up the ball and run with it. My guess is Eberle, but I’d like to see Yakupov take this opportunity. Perron also might be a likely candidate for picking it up.

    Any timeline on Gagner’s return??

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: There is very little (imo) history for this being a suspension.

    Well… if we are going to crack that old “facts and norms” chestnut, I agree that it is unlikely the NHL will do anything, however, I’m not convinced that is the right course of action.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Tyler’s changing his tune on this.

    At first he thought “shit happens”, now…

    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 9h
    Gryba’s got priors with the league. Hall didn’t change his angle or anything. I bet Gryba gets a fine.
    ExpandReplyRetweetFavorite More


    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 9h
    @ryandittrick I’m kind of re-visiting my view on this hit. Gryba was beaten and had no way to make a clean hit.View conversation

    A fine wouldn’t surprise me. A suspension? I’d be very surprised.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Racki:
    I think the biggest impact of losing Hall will be to the 3rd line / i.e. depth in scoring. The team has been weaker on the left side for a while, but with Yakupov moving to LW recently, this will mean more opportunity for him. They also could use Perron on the LW again too (he took the last game at RW). This should benefit Hemsky a bit, as he’ll likely jump off the line with Smytty and Gordon.

    It definitely is not ideal, but I don’t see it as too huge of a problem. It certainly isn’t ideal though, no.

    I’m hoping they call up Pitlick, as I’ve been wanting to see him some more. I’m not really interested in another look at Omark, myself.

    Really though, with Hall out, someone just needs to pick up the ball and run with it. My guess is Eberle, but I’d like to see Yakupov take this opportunity. Perron also might be a likely candidate for picking it up.

    Any timeline on Gagner’s return??

    you can solve that by dressing better players on the 4line. Which may be a result of this injury.

  52. dtk says:

    Southern Oil,

    Southern Oil: Appreciate the posts as I don’t have a history with knee troubles (and as a result no knowledge).If it was an ACL, I assume he would not be able to put weight on it – is that fair?

    It is possible for your leg to bear weight and to walk (basically) normally with a torn ACL. When I tore mine I had trouble turning corners or going up and down stairs, but otherwise somebody watching me walk couldn’t really tell that there was a problem.

  53. elpolodiablo says:

    I am a doctor, been a suffering oiler fan for 30 years now, first time poster. Not an orthopedic surgeon so definitely not the expert. I think he has a 7 million dollar knee so the flight to edmonton is so he can be evaluated by the physician staff and see what exactly the damage is. In broad strokes your ligaments, muscles and bones all contribute to the capsule so there can be various mechanisms for him limping like that on the ice. They may check the knee joint fluid and aspirate it to see if there is blood in the joint space. They may also get an MRI depending on exam, (most likely they will). Lets say he has a ligament strain rather than a tear which I’m guessing… and I can’t believe I’m going through this mental exercise on a sunday morning after working last night. Taking from the textbook campbell:

    Treatment of first-degree sprains is entirely symptomatic, and the patient usually can return to normal function and activities within a few days. Rest, ice, and a compression bandage are usually all that are required. Second-degree sprains require protection. In these injuries, a part of the ligament has been torn, and although the remaining untorn portion may stabilize the knee to routine stress testing, the strength of the ligament has been significantly impaired. If these patients are permitted to return promptly to full activity, especially in sports, complete disruption of the ligament is a real possibility. These patients are best treated with a controlled motion brace, allowing full, protected motion for 4 to 6 weeks. Recovery usually can be expected with no residual laxity once the rehabilitation program has been completed. Third-degree sprains may require operative treatment, depending on factors such as age, general health, associated injuries, and activity demands.

    Anyways I’m hoping Yakupov uses the opportunity. And my 2 cents is Eakins is getting all this talent confused and uptight and not letting them play. Cherry may be on to something

  54. Henry says:

    Woodguy:
    Note: Not a doctor, but have awful knees so somewhat familiar with some of this stuff.I could be very wrong.

    The way his knee bends at impact probably stressed the MCL (ligament stabilizing the knee on the inside of the leg.Not inside the knee itself that’s the ACL)

    Whether the stress caused a strain, tear, rupture, ripped off the bone,is unknown right now.The timeline to recover depends on what damage was actually done to the MCL (assuming its the MCL)

    A first degree sprain is damage to only a few ligament fibres. – Treatment time 3 weeks.


    A second degree sprain is damage to a more extensive number of ligament fibres, but the ligament remains intact. Treatment time 6-8 weeks.

    A third degree sprain is a complete rupture of the ligament. Because of the force involved in this injury other structures in the knee, such as the Meniscus (Cartilage) or the Anterior Cruciate Ligament can also be damaged. – Treatment time – surgery gone for the yearsource: http://www.physioroom.com/injuries/knee/medial_collateral_ligament_sprain_full.php

    You can blow the MCL apart and still walk.When you put pressure on the knee that requires the MCL to stabilize it is when you realize that there’s a problem as the knee starts to move in ways it doesn’t when the MCL is doing its job.

    Much like Hall coming down the wing, setting for a shot and then pulling up when the knee just didn’t feel right.

    Just because Hall was able to somewhat walk to the dressing room doesn’t mean its not bad.

    I agree with Woodguy’s suspicions here. I’m not an orthopod, but know just enough about these knees to speculate some (irresponsibly) after seeing the slomo. ACL sprains frequently have more twisting with a planted foot. If one is going to choose which to injure, you would choose the MCL, there is much less tissue that has to fill the gap between the bones.

    Doug Weight had a bad MCL sprain after a straight up knee on knee with Bryan Marchment. He healed effectively.

    Hall’s leg was partially bent on impact which might have put the injury on the patellar tendon holding the knee cap to the lower leg. Happens in car accidents. Don’t know how long that would put him out, but could be something treated with a brace after the swelling recedes.

  55. wheatnoil says:

    Southern Oil: Appreciate the posts as I don’t have a history with knee troubles (and as a result no knowledge).If it was an ACL, I assume he would not be able to put weight on it – is that fair?

    Not necessarily. An ACL injury doesn’t mean no weight-bearing, and certainly Hall could have an ACL injury, but it’s less likely for a couple reasons. (And someone please correct me if I’m wrong. It’s been a long damn time since I’ve learned about this stuff and knowledge has a way of fading when you don’t use it regularly.)

    ACLs get injured in a few ways. Your foot gets locked in a position and you make a strong pivot, let’s say if you’re coming down from a landing and your cleat gets stuck in the turf as you pivot. You can also injure it with an impact to the front of the knee when your foot is locked in position. There’s other ways to hurt it as well, but those are most common. Hall had is injury by getting an impact to the lateral (outside) of his knee, which is more classic for MCLs.

    Also, when you have an ACL injury, you’re more likely to feel some instability and have trouble with pivots. You can also get some locking (though you can get that with meniscal tears too… I can’t remember if you get that with MCLs) and your knee can ‘give way’ leading to a fall. That didn’t SEEM to be what was happening to Hall after the injury, but again, this is all speculation based on the mode of injury and the observable symptoms post-injury. Physical exam and MRI will be more definitive.

  56. ashley says:

    If that ends up a suspension, I don’t know how these players are going to play a contact sport with any confidence. Skating requires bent knees. Slowing and turning as you approach a player near the boards requires the knee to be bent and slightly forward otherwise you would fall face first into the player/boards. It was unfortunate, but unintentional. Hall’s speed surprised him, as it does for many, and he tries to still get him by curling a bit, but unfortunately only catches his back leg instead of his body.

    I think the Oilers will be fine. I think a single player’s contribution to the system is often overrated in hockey. It’s not football or baseball where the QB or pitcher controls the game. With adequate depth, good teams fill these holes easily and all the time. Even for an impact player the calibre of Hall.

    In fact, if you’re going to lose an impact player, I would much rather it be a winger than a center, defenseman, or goaltender.

    Woodguy’s medical analysis upthread is spot on. They will do an MRI, though they are only marginally helpful in an MCL injury, if at all. The value of the MRI is to detect associated chondral/menisical injuries. Ultimately Taylor’s prognosis will be determined largely by a physical examination of the knee by an experienced surgeon or sports doctor, and his symptoms (pain/stability) over the next few weeks.

    I saw the question upthread about ACL weightbearing. You can weightbear on a torn ACL. It results in front-to-back and rotational instability that will have muscular compensation to provide some stability during routine daily activities. A fair number of patients go many years of their lives with ACL-deficient knees.

    It’s possible he could have an ACL injury, though often ACL tears require violent force, usually on a planted foot. Therefore more common in sports that require shoes rather than skates.

  57. dangilitis says:

    What I would love to hear is that he didn’t damage the ACL, as that is a season death sentence. Chronic instability common. Few athletes with ACL injury are capable of returning to sustained, high-level athletic activity without surgical repair.

    For ACL classic history is that the knee is planted/hyperextended or planted and turned slightly outwards at time of contact;, and its hard to see from that angle but it possibly was hyperextended. The classic thing that happens if the ACL is torn is that the knee becomes acutely swollen (because of bleeding from the torn ACL), painful, and immediate difficulty bearing weight. Also a feeling of giving out. So the fact that he even got on the ice and went down the ice after the penalty is kind of encouraging, as well as the bearing weight in brace. I don’t know if anyone said it was swollen.

    After ACL, the MCL and menisci are next most likely injured.

    If he sprained his MCL alone, they heal with rehabilitation. They may have been cautious in putting him in a brace but if he TRULY needs bracing that suggests it may be more severe (Graded 1-4, possibly Grade 3-4 in his case). In that case we are looking at a 4-6 week conservative estimate until he would be done rehab. If its less severe, probably 2-3 weeks, depending on strength, stability, and pain.

    Meniscal tear alone seems unlikely, as they are often managed with surgery or are one of the few injuries where complete rest may be indicated (e.g. no weight bearing) if non-operative management is possible.

    So, of the 3, MCL probably sounds most likely. Or he has no structural damage whatsoever. If no MRI is done, then that’s a good sign because the docs feel ligament damage is unlikely, but it may be done because he’s a professional athlete and the team wants an answer sooner (doctors often have to wait to get a good exam in 1-2 days later when the pain and swelling allow one to stress it a bit more as part of the testing of ligament stability).

    Lets hope he just “tweaked it” and is back on the ice soon. My guess though is 4-6 weeks (2 wk – 2 month range). Not fun times right now, I never thought that after an Oilers win the playoffs could be more out of reach so early, but there you go.

  58. Lowetide says:

    elpolodiablo: .

    elpolodiablo:
    I am a doctor, been a suffering oiler fan for 30 years now. Not an orthopedic surgeon so definitely not the expert. I think he has a 7 million dollar knee so the flight to edmonton is so he can be evaluated by the surgeon and see what exactly the damage is. In broad strokes your ligaments, muscles and bones all contribute to the capsule so there can be various mechanisms for him limping like that on the ice. They may check the knee joint fluid and aspirate it to see if there is blood in the joint space.They may also get an MRI depending on exam, (most likely they will). Lets say he has a ligament strain rather than a tear which I’m guessing… and I can’t believe I’m going through this mental exercise on a sunday morning after working last night.Taking from the textbook campbell:

    Treatment of first-degree sprains is entirely symptomatic, and the patient usually can return to normal function and activities within a few days. Rest, ice, and a compression bandage are usually all that are required. Second-degree sprains require protection. In these injuries, a part of the ligament has been torn, and although the remaining untorn portion may stabilize the knee to routine stress testing, the strength of the ligament has been significantly impaired. If these patients are permitted to return promptly to full activity, especially in sports, complete disruption of the ligament is a real possibility. These patients are best treated with a controlled motion brace, allowing full, protected motion for 4 to 6 weeks. Recovery usually can be expected with no residual laxity once the rehabilitation program has been completed. Third-degree sprains may require operative treatment, depending on factors such as age, general health, associated injuries, and activity demands.

    Anyways I’m hoping Yakupov uses the opportunity. And my 2 cents is Eakins is getting all this talent confused and uptight and not letting them play. Cherry may be on to something

    Gold! Thanks, so much! And I agree, the Oilers are doing entirely too much thinking. However, Eakins had to get those mush minds focused, so start as you mean to go.

  59. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Don’t know if it was mentioned last night, but during 1st period intermission of the CAL-SJS game, Cherry and Ron looked at the Gryba hit a few times in slo-mo and Cherry was decidedly on the side that Gyrba was in the wrong and reckless and exonerated Hall for the slash:

    http://www.cbc.ca/player/Sports/Top+Stories/ID/2413143451/?sort=MostRecent

    I wouldn’t be surprised if most thought initially no investigation was warranted… but on second look and after Cherry says something, I bet the NHL takes a long look at it (isn’t to say they do something about it).

    Leading with the knee should cause some sort of disciplinary action.

  60. G Money says:

    dangilitis: Skating requires bent knees. Slowing and turning as you approach a player near the boards requires the knee to be bent and slightly forward otherwise you would fall face first into the player/boards.

    When it happened in real time, I thought so too.

    The screencaps after the fact show two distinct things:

    - Gryba with an unnaturally wide stance and “weight neutral” stance – you can’t skate with that stance, but it’s ideal for stabilizing the legs against an impact. In other words, his stance indicates he was expecting a leg-on-leg impact

    - His body and left knee orientation are straight ahead in the direction of Hall’s centre of gravity. The right (contact) knee is turned out and driving straight into Hall’s knee. Again – indicative of intent. See the screencap here: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/10/19/should-eric-gryba-be-suspended-for-his-hit-on-taylor-hall/

    I just don’t see how that knee is at the exact right angle to drive into Hall’s knee if all Gryba is doing is hitting with the upper body. No way. If he’s skating forward with no intention of hitting Hall’s knee, his knee will be pointed the same as the rest of him, and in fact, I suspect Hall would not have been injured, or probably no worse than a bruise, because the impact would have been absorbed by both knees hitting at equally vulnerable/not vulnerable angles. Instead, the collision is essentially of a solid braced pointed object driving straight into Hall’s knee.

    A suspension would be warranted.

  61. Woodguy says:

    Southern Oil: Appreciate the posts as I don’t have a history with knee troubles (and as a result no knowledge).If it was an ACL, I assume he would not be able to put weight on it – is that fair?

    Yes, normal pressure of standing would cause pain afaik.

    Like others have mentioned that ACL needs severe twisting action to get injured, which wasn’t present on this play.

  62. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Yes, normal pressure of standing would cause pain afaik.

    Like others have mentioned that ACL needs severe twisting action to get injured, which wasn’t present on this play.

    Actually, Hall’s knee was hyperextended, and that *can* cause an ACL tear:
    http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/hyperextended-knee/AN00283

    Hopefully it is no more than a charley horse.

  63. Lowetide says:

    G Money: When it happened in real time, I thought so too.

    The screencaps after the fact show two distinct things:

    - Gryba with an unnaturally wide stance and “weight neutral” stance – you can’t skate with that stance, but it’s ideal for stabilizing the legs against an impact. In other words, his stance indicates he was expecting a leg-on-leg impact

    - His body and left knee orientation are straight ahead in the direction of Hall’s centre of gravity. The right (contact) knee is turned out and driving straight into Hall’s knee. Again – indicative of intent. See the screencap here: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/10/19/should-eric-gryba-be-suspended-for-his-hit-on-taylor-hall/

    I just don’t see how that knee is at the exact right angle to drive into Hall’s knee if all Gryba is doing is hitting with the upper body.No way. If he’s skating forward with no intention of hitting Hall’s knee, his knee will be pointed the same as the rest of him, and in fact, I suspect Hall would not have been injured, or probably no worse than a bruise, because the impact would have been absorbed by both knees hitting at equally vulnerable/not vulnerable angles.Instead, the collision is essentially of a solid braced pointed object driving straight into Hall’s knee.

    A suspension would be warranted.

    He’s adjusting to the play. I agree he was beaten on the play, but that’s different than adjusting for a knee on knee. This wasn’t a head on collision, this was from the side. I just don’t buy there’s any kind of way we can prove intent.

  64. Bushed says:

    Lowetide:

    Have to disagree with your take on the Gryba hit.

    While the game is played at a high pace and so on, these are professional players who are highly aware of what they are doing and how they are doing it. The slow motion replay shows Gryba going in for contact with his knee and leg in a position to move straight ahead. He’s not going to turn, and is definitely not looking to play the body here–if he were looking for a clean hit, he would be turned to angle off Hall and deliver a shoulder for the body check.

    Look at the direction of his skate and its distance from the boards when contact is made. That is at the very least an intent to trip Hall with his foot–there is no place for Hall to go. And on that play, Gryba or any player who’s played enough games to make it to the NHL has to know that an injury could easily result.

    The best that can be offered for Gryba is that the decision was a split-second one, but it was obviously a poor one, and he deserves a long suspension for it…

    (Same goes for the Chara turnbuckle hit last year. His claim to not know where he was on the ice? Sorry, not buying it at all.)

  65. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    Gold! Thanks, so much! And I agree, the Oilers are doing entirely too much thinking. However, Eakins had to get those mush minds focused, so start as you mean to go.

    Maybe another place that the Oilers need balance is in coaching.

  66. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: He got roughed up toward the end of the game, defenseman took him out very hard and he may have hit the boards (don’t recall). Anyway, he was down on the ice for a couple of seconds.

    Yeah, it could have been that play that he fell down and slid into the boards.

    As for Hall, agreed that in real time I didn’t honestly notice much due to the camera angle, but the gif clearly shows Gryba leading with knee. I think he should get a suspension.

  67. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: Actually, Hall’s knee was hyperextended, and that *can* cause an ACL tear:
    http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/hyperextended-knee/AN00283

    Hopefully it is no more than a charley horse.

    IF Hall hyper-extended his knee. Usually hyperextension means the knee literally extends beyond its normal range of motion. Based on the GIF (and especially Woodguy’s slow-motion GIF posted earlier), I don’t see the hyperextension.

    Again, diagnosis through television is difficult, so who knows really. When Hall gets examined, I’m sure we’ll hear more info.

  68. elpolodiablo says:

    wheatnoil,

    Yes I concur that’s how I was taught too, MCL is affected by somebody hitting your knee from the side.

  69. stevezie says:

    bookje,

    I’m an Eakins supporter and defend Yesterday by pointing out how early in his tenure we are, but it was obvious who the more skilled team was and that team was getting beaten up and down the ice.

    Many of the giveaways might have looked like careless passes but it is obvious these guys often have no idea where each other are going to be on the ice. One guy guesses where to send the pass, the other guy guesses where to go to take it, and voila! Giveaway.

    The PP was especially embarrassing.

    I saw the game with three Sens fans. The lot of us left the rink shaking our heads in disgust. Thanks God I won big money.

  70. steveb12344 says:

    Lowetide: He’s adjusting to the play. I agree he was beaten on the play, but that’s different than adjusting for a knee on knee. This wasn’t a head on collision, this was from the side. I just don’t buy there’s any kind of way we can prove intent.

    Isn’t that much like when a defender is beaten on a play and trips his guy out of desperation?

    If the knee on knee was a result of desperation than wouldn’t that be at best a very irresponsible act by a beaten player resulting in injury.

    If you hit a guys head irresponsibly, even if there was no intent. That is generally treated the same as intent. I.E. you have to be responsible for your actions.

    Why should a knee on knee injury be treated any differently?

  71. oliveoilers says:

    I think what we have here was reckless, poorly timed but not malicious. He realised too late that Hall had beat him, tried a kind of pinch-off-hip-shoulder check by putting himself between Hall and the puck, but was mile too slow. Had to get that knee out to do this, but really really underestimated how fast Hall is. A few games to reflect that when you’re beat, you’re beat and what you do could have repercussions injury wise should straighten the young man out without too much complaint. Just like Kassian didn’t mean to take off Gag’s head, but should still have control of his stick. A few games could let Gryba know to be more cautious before he starts thinking “hey, I can get away with this in this league.” Also, someone should have at least face washed him. Look at the crowd for Spezza.

  72. Racki says:

    Re: Gryba, my guess is a fine at worst. Don’t see any suspension happening.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Slepyshev with a point today. KHL update:

    Slepyshev 13, 1-1-2 10:37 a night
    Yakimov 16, 2-4-6 9:30 a night
    Zharkov 18, 2-0-2 7:50 a night
    Hartikainen 17, 6-7-13 16:42 a night

    Yakimov is having a very nice debut in the KHL.

  74. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: IF Hall hyper-extended his knee. Usually hyperextension means the knee literally extends beyond its normal range of motion. Based on the GIF (and especially Woodguy’s slow-motion GIF posted earlier), I don’t see the hyperextension.

    Wheat: my statement of hyperextension is based on the replays at the time it happened.

    The slomo replays since then haven’t changed my mind. Look at 0:19 of the slow mo replay from the CBC segment that WG linked: http://www.cbc.ca/player/Sports/Top+Stories/ID/2413143451/?sort=MostRecent

    Looks hyperextended to me.

  75. justDOit says:

    If Hall can get suspended for his hit on Clutterbuck, this hit is easily actionable by Shannaban. There was no reason to lead a hit with his knee, other than being caught out of position by Hall’s speed.

  76. Racki says:

    @jirelandEJ 1m
    #oilers Sam Gagner has been cleared for light contact. Will see the doctor again next week.

  77. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Slepyshev with a point today. KHL update:

    Slepyshev 13, 1-1-2 10:37 a night
    Yakimov 16, 2-4-6 9:30 a night
    Zharkov 18, 2-0-2 7:50 a night
    Hartikainen 17, 6-7-13 16:42 a night

    Yakimov is having a very nice debut in the KHL.

    I really hope Harti comes back.

    Gordon-Paajarvi-Harti sounds like fun

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit:
    If Hall can get suspended for his hit on Clutterbuck, this hit is easily actionable by Shannaban. There was no reason to lead a hit with his knee, other than being caught out of position by Hall’s speed.

    I think the NHL is inclined to treat open-ice hits differently than along-the-boards hits.

  79. Gret99zky says:

    I’ve believed from the start the wildcard with this team will be depth due to injury and Dubnyk’s play.

    So far, not so good.

    Is MacT going to make a move? I doubt he is willing to pay the asking price.

  80. ashley says:

    G Money,

    Hmmm, that screen capture is certainly a little more damning than the play looked in real time or even in slow motion. Perhaps this one is in the gray zone, but I definitely don’t think he did this on purpose, rather is reacting to being beat on the play.

    I also wonder if you slow down or look at screencaps on any number of hits that don’t result in an injury if you could show some damning evidence of something dirty going on in an otherwise normal nondirty hockey play. Sort of like the statistics of the video world. You can prove anything you want if you just select the right frame.

  81. mc79hockey says:

    As the rules are written, that’s a kneeing penalty.

    I’m enormously sympathetic to the idea that guys miss sometimes trying to make a legal play – Torres on Stoll last year – and that it’s a little silly to nail them with big suspensions. That being said, I’m not sure what legal play Gryba was trying to make. Hall had him beat. Full stop. You can’t put your shoulder into a guy leading with the knee.

    I watched the NHL’s kneeing video last night and they indicate that they make allowances for a guy making a cut who stalls a defenceman and runs into an extended knee. That seems to me to be consistent with my general concern for recognizing that accidents happen.

    This though…Hall doesn’t shift his angle. He’s going in a straight line. Gryba can’t get him with a legal check and rather than use his stick to haul him down, he just runs his knee into him. Whether he was thinking about what he’s going to do or not, the onus has to be on him not to knee people and he failed to discharge it. I think a fine is most likely but it’s such a senseless play (making the kind assumption to Gryba – the cynical one is that he knew he was beat and made the play that was least likely to get him penalized to stop Hall) that I wouldn’t have a problem if he got suspended.

    Of course, the suspension is basically meaningless but that’s a different problem.

  82. justDOit says:

    mc79hockey:

    …Of course, the suspension is basically meaningless but that’s a different problem.

    One of the TSN panelists suggested that for serious suspensions, the team can’t fill that roster spot with a call-up or black ace. This would effectively tie the offense back to the team and the coach. Not sure how much it would actually penalize the team, but you really wouldn’t want to suffer two suspensions for very long.

    Thoughts?

  83. justDOit says:

    And in other hockey-talk, anyone watch SJ play last night? That Mr. Boo-urns looks every bit like a beast on the wing, and that Hertl guy is really helping with scoring depth.

  84. Racki says:

    justDOit: One of the TSN panelists suggested that for serious suspensions, the team can’t fill that roster spot with a call-up or black ace. This would effectively tie the offense back to the team and the coach. Not sure how much it would actually penalize the team, but you really wouldn’t want to suffer two suspensions for very long.

    Thoughts?

    I think that’s an interesting idea.

    It still doesn’t solve one important problem, for me… and that being how does the Ottawa Senators not being able to dress one player for x games make the Oilers feel any better about losing Taylor Hall for x games?

    I’m not really sure how you can solve that problem though, really.

    I’ve heard some say forfeiting of draft picks to the other team. That seems a little strange to me too to “reward” someone for having their player hurt (and then it doesn’t solve the next problem, which is how does it make things “right” for Hall if the Oilers get a draft pick, if say he wasn’t part of the team next year…).

    I’m not so sure there really is a good outcome to a bad injury by a dirty play though.

  85. hunter1909 says:

    mc79hockey,

    Seems that younger players are more than happy to level Taylor Hall. Legally, or not.

    Oilers currently have targets on their collective backs. Only Oiler fans don’t comment how beaten up the team gets night after night, because everyone is used to it.

  86. Bushed says:

    Whatever happens or doesn’t happen to Gryba, the bigger issue is that it’s clearly open season on the Oilers.

    The Sens were running our guys all game, and we can expect the same from other teams.

    Suspensions aren’t a deterrent.

    Longer term, a bigger roster is a must.

    Short term???

  87. wheatnoil says:

    Racki: I think that’s an interesting idea.

    It still doesn’t solve one important problem, for me… and that being how does the Ottawa Senators not being able to dress one player for x games make the Oilers feel any better about losing Taylor Hall for x games?

    I’m not really sure how you can solve that problem though, really.

    I’ve heard some say forfeiting of draft picks to the other team. That seems a little strange to me too to “reward” someone for having their player hurt (and then it doesn’t solve the next problem, which is how does it make things “right” for Hall if the Oilers get a draft pick, if say he wasn’t part of the team next year…).

    I’m not so sure there really is a good outcome to a bad injury by a dirty play though.

    I had mentioned this before and acknowledge it’s an idea in the “This Will Never Happen” folder, but I’ve thought a more effective way to punish the team in a salary cap world is to transfer money and cap hit, not draft picks. So if Player A performs a suspendable offense on Player B, and gets suspended for X number of games, the offending team must transfer a certain amount of money and cap hit for, let’s say, a full calendar year based on the number of games suspended. The exact number can be worked out, but let’s say it’s $25K per game suspended.

    So Lapierre gets a 5 game suspension. This would mean that St. Louis must pay the San Jose Sharks organization $125 000 in real money and transfer that amount of cap hit to the Sharks for one calendar year. The Blues lose Lapierre for 5 games, but the whole team and organization is impacted. Meanwhile, the Sharks get some money and cap room to make up for the potential injury to the affected player.

  88. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Just wanted to mention that we are really blessed to have Willis down in OKC.

    LT points out his comments on the call-up options above, but in the same article there is some real nice things to pick apart on the Barons:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/10/19/who-will-the-edmonton-oilers-recall-if-halls-injury-is-severe/

    THis Gernat item is esp. interesting: “Gernat might have won a job on the Baron’s blue line with his play tonight. Todd Nelson praised his “safe, simple game” afterward, and Gernat had a number of standout plays, including two good scoring chances on smart pinches in the overtime. His pairing with Philip Larsen was solid overall, too, with the Barons holding a 14-7 edge in shots and missed shots with Gernat on the ice.”

    that’s a lot less chaos than is expected for this kind of player. he might not need part of a season in the ECHL after all.

  89. Lowetide says:

    Bushed:
    Whatever happens or doesn’t happen to Gryba, the bigger issue is that it’s clearly open season on the Oilers.

    The Sens were running our guys all game, and we can expect the same from other teams.

    Suspensions aren’t a deterrent.

    Longer term, a bigger roster is a must.

    Short term???

    We’ve been down this road. If there are bigger players who can play, bring them on. But I’ve seen enough of JF Jacques on the 1line experiments to last a lifetime. And it’s also important to mention (again) that having big men on the roster doesn’t do one damn thing. Gazdic played yesterday, I didn’t see any Senator blood. Why? They needed the points. That’s just the way it is.

  90. justDOit says:

    Racki,

    Yes, until the league declares that Ottawa loan the Oilers Ryan until Hall gets back, there is no restitution for losing a star player to a dirty hit. But for the coach to lose one option on his lineup for a period of time has to impact them somewhat, and make them think about what their players are doing out there. And if you’re already down one roster spot to suspension, you won’t want another spot lost to same.

    It would be even better if you lose a d-man, you have to run with one less player at that position – not filling in the d-corps and going without an extra forward.

  91. cabbiesmacker says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    Gordon-Paajarvi-Harti sounds like fun

    Whaaa? MPS is coming back? Noooooo.

    Or maybe you meant fun as in fun for opponents. Awesome line. Two players who did next to nothing and one legit NHL’er. That’s been the Oilers issue for too damn long.

    Gordon has done nothing to deserve this. Nothing at all.

    Like the looks of LT’s adjusted lines but knowing how this team works it’ll be Smyth moving up to take Hall’s minutes.

  92. justDOit says:

    The EA Sports NHL 14 commercial I saw recently is really playing out – just about every clip the Oilers are shown in, is a player getting hit.

  93. Bushed says:

    Racki and justDoit:

    I like the idea that the punishment matches the victim’s time away from the game. The penalty could still be lightened somewhat if intent is in doubt, but the starting point should always have the punishment fit the victim impact.

    Let’s look at the extreme case. Say Hall’s career is over–see you later, Gryba, career over. I’m assuming that players and teams carry insurance, so Hall at least cashes in on the insurance, but Gryba gets squat and his NHL career is over (substitute Bertuzzi and Moore if you like). Maybe he goes to the KHL or elsewhere, but so what? Don’t you think he and every other player will start playing with a lot more respect for other players?

    If the deterrent has to be reinforced with lost draft picks, loss of cap space equivalent to the player injured, or something similar, I’m OK with that, too.

    The current system is doing too little to curb dangerous behavior in my view.

  94. mc79hockey says:

    hunter1909,

    I think Oiler fans should watch other teams. Everyone gets hit.

  95. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide: We’ve been down this road. If there are bigger players who can play, bring them on. But I’ve seen enough of JF Jacques on the 1line experiments to last a lifetime. And it’s also important to mention (again) that having big men on the roster doesn’t do one damn thing. Gazdic played yesterday, I didn’t see any Senator blood. Why?

    I agree. The issue is zero toughness that can play top 9 mins. Would be great to have a Backes, Lucic or Evander Kane but a Downie, Prust, type wouldn’t hurt either.

  96. Bushed says:

    Lowetide,

    Hmmm. Bigger guys who can play, bring them on?

    OK, agreed.

    Where would you start?

  97. Colonel Obvious says:

    I find it hard to accept that Oilers players have a target on their backs above and beyond the target every NHL player has. Seriously, guys get hurt almost every single night, and in games that don’t involve the Oilers.

    It is a rough game and attempts to injure are relatively routine. However, I see no evidence that they are more prevalent against the Oilers.

  98. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    cabbiesmacker: Whaaa? MPS is coming back? Noooooo.

    Or maybe you meant fun as in fun for opponents. Awesome line. Two players who did next to nothing and one legit NHL’er. That’s been the Oilers issue for too damn long.

    Gordon has done nothing to deserve this. Nothing at all.

    Blue skying.

    I like both players. They’ve both shown enough to me that they can play at this level. They aren’t going to score a ton and they aren’t going to kill the opposition. But they are going to score enough and they going to keep the puck in the other end of the ice.

    That sounds like a workable 3rd line to me.

  99. justDOit says:

    Bushed,

    I don’t think we’ll see such drastic measures as that, but you’re right about the current system having little effect on how the players think the game. The TSN panel suggested that the long suspension Cooke has suffered seems to have righted his ship (although the Karlsson skate slash looked very intentional). If you combine 20 – 40 game suspension with roster limits for the team, you might be getting close to real deterrents.

    One other thing that was mentioned on that panel, is how hockey is played today. Body checks should be about separating player from puck, and you can go all the way back to Moore on Naslund to see that if Moore’s intention was to get the puck, and not the head of Naslund at any cost, all he had to do was skate past Naslund and take the puck. Torres on Eberle a couple of years ago – same thing.

    But then this gets the Cherry types all ‘up in arms’ about taking hitting out of the game. I would counter that with all the things added to the game over the last 4 decades (faster, bigger, meaner, skilled-er), that something has to give, or else we’ll need transhumanism to come to hockey’s rescue. Making the puck the center of focus in hitting is a start, but it will require vast reprogramming of the players.

  100. Lowetide says:

    Bushed:
    Lowetide,

    Hmmm. Bigger guys who can play, bring them on?

    OK, agreed.

    Where would you start?

    Perron’s a nice addition to this team, for me MacT wanted a physical skill guy and he fits. I think getting good players of any size should be the priority. Beyond that, you hope guys like Khaira and Yakimov can develop. I’m not onside with trading more talented people like Yakupov for bigger, lesser men.

  101. Colonel Obvious says:

    Bushed:
    Whatever happens or doesn’t happen to Gryba, the bigger issue is that it’s clearly open season on the Oilers.

    The Sens were running our guys all game, and we can expect the same from other teams.

    Suspensions aren’t a deterrent.

    Longer term, a bigger roster is a must.

    Short term???

    This is total nonsense. The Oilers don’t get hit more than other teams. If you think they are you need to get your head out of your prejudices and watch the games. You literally have no idea what you are talking about.

  102. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    At some point this fanbase is going to have to stop re-litigating the “size!” question, or at least stop imbuing it with magical qualities.

  103. Bushed says:

    Colonel Obvious,

    In general, yes, all teams hit other teams’ players.

    But quite a few game analysts have said teams are deliberately running the Oilers smaller skill players as a deliberate game plan.

    The Sens weren’t just finishing their checks, they were finishing extremely hard, hoping to intimidate the smaller and less physical team.

  104. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    At some point this fanbase is going to have to stop re-litigating the “size!” question, or at least stop imbuing it with magical qualities.

    YOU’RE CRAZY!

  105. Lowetide says:

    Bushed:
    Colonel Obvious,

    In general, yes, all teams hit other teams’ players.

    But quite a few game analysts have said teams are deliberately running the Oilers smaller skill players as a deliberate game plan.

    The Sens weren’t just finishing their checks, they were finishing extremely hard, hoping to intimidate the smaller and less physical team.

    The Senators are built to punish, that was an extremely physical game. I watch them quite a lot and they a physical group, but they’re also demons at going after the puck. I think Ottawa has a chance to win the Stanley this year.

  106. Colonel Obvious says:

    Bushed:
    Colonel Obvious,

    In general, yes, all teams hit other teams’ players.

    But quite a few game analysts have said teams are deliberately running the Oilers smaller skill players as a deliberate game plan.

    The Sens weren’t just finishing their checks, they were finishing extremely hard, hoping to intimidate the smaller and less physical team.

    Again, this is total nonsense. This simply didn’t happen. Quoting “game analysts” as some kind of authority carries negative weight. NHL game analysts don’t do actual analysis, rather they contrive their comments to fit a narrative. This narrative is determined by two things, 1) the prior narrative, and 2) the scoreboard. Hence you had John Shannon saying after the first period that this was the Oilers most complete effort of the season. That’s not analysis that’s post facto narrative.

    These people provide negative value to our understanding of hockey. That actively propigate ignorance.

  107. Bushed says:

    justDOit,

    Yes, I agree with you.

    I seriously don’t expect the NHL to go as far as I outlined, but something more needs to be done.

    With bigger, faster, more skilled players, I think part of the answer is a larger rink. Again, do I think the owners and NHL will go there? No, but maybe they should consider looking into it?

  108. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    At some point this fanbase is going to have to stop re-litigating the “size!” question, or at least stop imbuing it with magical qualities.

    I might be alone on this, but I loved the way Kessel hacked at Scott in the preseason, and it was the perfect time to sit out a small suspension to prove himself – no money out of his pocket and the team gets to try out someone else on the top line.

    If the Oilers’ video dept can put together a low-light reel of Ciccarelli in his prime, it should be shown in the dressing room before every practice or game. If I recall, Dino played with a little longer stick, and that butt end was always showing when he went into the corners – or seemed that way at the time.

  109. Colonel Obvious says:

    Lowetide makes a good point. Size has no effect on intimidation. The Senators weren’t trying to intimidate the Oilers. That’s ridiculous. However, they dominated the puck battles and that actually matters.

    So if you want the Oilers to be bigger so they win more puck battles I’m fine with that. But remember size is a means to an end. If you can get to the end, in this case getting the damn puck, then that’s good.

    To that effect, Gadzik and Brown are useless at puck battles, as was Eager.

    Getting the puck and then keeping the puck are the only things that matter. Talk about intimidation and attempts to injure is silliness.

  110. justDOit says:

    Bushed,

    But the birthplace of boring hockey was the large ice – NJ just perfected it in a smaller venue. And I can’t see the modern players union opting for a move like removing the rover from the game (circa 19-17?) and going with 4 skaters to open things up.

  111. Racki says:

    This team just needs more guys in the top 9 to take a page from David Perron. He competes pretty hard, agitates, and isn’t afraid to muck it up. He’s not a huge player either (listed at 6′, 198lbs).. but he uses what he has quite well. The Oilers don’t need a Milan Lucic, per se.. they just need guys to play like they are not afraid to get their noses dirty and compete hard.

    I also have always been a fan of the Gazdics and Browns of the league, but I’m with most of you now.. these guys don’t really bring anything to the table, most nights. There will be the odd game where they do something that is exciting as hell to watch, but there will be another 10-15 more where “they are a non-factor, at best” to use MacT’s line. Get Pitlick in there somewhere, and perhaps some other quality bottom six guys like a Max Talbot. It still irks me that the Oilers had an amazing 4th line going with Stortini-Brodziak-Glencross (even though Stortini isn’t an NHLer) and they broke that up. They need to find that kind of line again. Perhaps a Pitlick-Talbot-Jones line.

  112. VanOil says:

    bookje: Maybe another place that the Oilers need balance is in coaching.

    I would like to build on this theme. There are many things I like about Dallas Eakins as a coach. His determination and directness are admirable. As is his belief in fitness and openness to new ways for evaluating, training and executing. His systems are a work in progress but have potential.

    In practices and in pregame skates he seems to believe in keeping it simple and focused. During games he does do some things I approve of like the early pulling of the goalie and judicial use of time outs. It also helps that he does not live in denial of the concept of line matching like the last guy seemed too.

    Unfortunately his in game line management is a bit jittery so far. I think and hope seasoning and success will calm him down in time. But so far I think his frantic line juggling is hurting his and our ability to judge this team and for the players to develop comfort with each other and the new systems.

    There are many reasons for line juggling we are not ever fully aware of such as injuries, discipline, wanting to spark a player and just plain hunches by the coach but I think more patience and less whole changes between and during games would help. When trouble shooting and experimenting it is important to change as few as variables as possible in order to be able to evaluate which variables are actually having an impact.

    My concrete example of what I am rambling about was yesterdays new line of RNH-Yak-Eberle. It started the game with promising results on the score sheet. By the first intermission it seemed have inspired Yak who they were looking to inspire when creating this line. Then in the mists of penalties and later injuries the line disappeared. I feel unable to properly evaluate if Yak has turned a corner, looked comfortable on the left wing or gelled with these two line mates. Yes there were mitigating game circumstances, there always are, that led to that line being less evident latter in the game but Eakins so far has been juggling like crazy iirc in all games.

    So basically what I am hoping for is that Eakins like any rookie develops calmer feet and more consistency. He has the talent and to tools to do this job well he just needs let the game come to him and change one thing at a time. Enough change is thrust upon a team, like Hall and Gagners injuries, that creating unnecessary change as well does not help development.

  113. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit: I might be alone on this, but I loved the way Kessel hacked at Scott in the preseason, and it was the perfect time to sit out a small suspension to prove himself – no money out of his pocket and the team gets to try out someone else on the top line.

    If the Oilers’ video dept can put together a low-light reel of Ciccarelli in his prime, it should be shown in the dressing room before every practice or game. If I recall, Dino played with a little longer stick, and that butt end was always showing when he went into the corners – or seemed that way at the time.

    I’m a firm believer that all Oilers should be taught how to make themselves as pointy as possible with sticks, elbows, etc. so that hits received are felt the other way too.

    And, I have no problem with Kessel’s slash. That was “pageantry of the worst.”

    This team could certainly use more authority with/without the puck, Perronish pluck and a lot more net presence. But, these are actual hockey concerns, i.e., the relate to winning games.

    Talk about adding size and making them pay etc., isn’t about winning games.

    Contact sports fuel many emotions in fans: the thrill of identifying with victory and the thrill of identifying with destruction are the two main drivers. I’d like the EDM fan base to amplify the former and ward off tendencies toward the latter.

  114. "Steve Smith" says:

    Racki:
    This team just needs more guys in the top 9 to take a page from David Perron. He competes pretty hard, agitates, and isn’t afraid to muck it up. He’s not a huge player either (listed at 6′, 198lbs).. but he uses what he has quite well.

    I agree with all of this. But are suggesting that this will somehow prevent injuries to Oilers players? Because I am not at all convinced of that.

  115. Racki says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    I agree with all of this. But are suggesting that this will somehow prevent injuries to Oilers players? Because I am not at all convinced of that.

    Nothing will prevent injuries.. so no. I wasn’t suggesting that at all. I’m more speaking to the topic of the Oilers seeming to disappear the past couple games, even though they won the last one and were close in the Isles game. That thought “of we should be winning these games but goaltending is letting us down” has completely reversed.

  116. justDOit says:

    Well that’s enough Sunday devoted to fixing hockey – the rest is up to Mr. Katz and his secret underground lab.

  117. wheatnoil says:

    I don’t know what the Oilers will do if Hall is out for awhile, but in hindsight I think that the presence of Arcobello as an option was the best response the Oilers could have had to the Kassian slash. Say what you want about suspensions, fights, grittiness, pointiness, and taking liberties… none of that means a damn thing if Arcobello doesn’t perform the way he has in Gagner’s absence.

    Shit happens in the NHL. Ryan limped to the bench earlier in the game yesterday, but he looks to be okay. It could’ve been different for him too.

  118. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Cullen on the Oil:

    http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=434452

    10. As the Edmonton Oilers were going through some concern over their goaltending, given Devan Dubnyk’s slow start, the rumour mill hit overdrive and prompted a question from TSN radio host Dave Naylor to TSN Insider Darren Dreger about whether the Oilers would consider a Nail Yakupov-for-James Reimer deal.

    Dreger’s response stunned me because, as much as James Reimer doesn’t need to be moved out at the earliest possible opportunity, if he would bring the Maple Leafs a 20-year-old who was the first overall pick less than a year-and-a-half ago, I couldn’t imagine the justification for passing it up. He’s not proven? Yakupov is more proven than Leafs D Morgan Rielly and I’m sure that the Leafs would deal Reimer before surrendering Rielly.

    The other part of any Oilers goaltender trade talk is that many of the names mentioned — Reimer, Brian Elliott, Michal Neuvirth — aren’t necessarily an upgrade on the guy they already have. Certainly not a significant enough upgrade to sacrifice a potential game-breaking goal-scorer. In any case, Dubnyk stopped 37 of 40 shots against the Islanders Thursday, so he may not be the Oilers’ only concern.

    11. 25-year-old Oilers rookie C Mark Arcobello has stepped into Edmonton’s lineup and made an immediate impact, with eight assists in eight games, playing more than 21 minutes in each of the last two games.

    The question, when trying to assess Arcobello’s contributions going forward, is where he will fit on the depth chart once Sam Gagner returns from his broken jaw. If the Oilers are already having trouble finding room for scorers in their top six, how will they sort out the lineup to keep Arcobello in a productive spot?

    Also, I missed this:

    “”Tough training camp, tough start ot the year. Probably could have done more work this summer.” – Darryl Sutter on Kings D Slava Voynov.”

  119. Bushed says:

    Colonel Obvious,

    I’m not saying they get hit more often. And I’m not just referring to John Shannon. Watch TSN and other channels. Former players, GMs and others are all saying the same thing. But according to you, they’re all wrong. Your opinion.

    I’m not trying to re-open the enforcer arguments here. I’m just saying some teams and players will look at our roster and try to take liberties. So players and teams have to find ways to protect themselves.

    If we ever hope to be a playoff team again, part of the answer has to be some size and balance in the roster, no? Or did Chicago win their last Cup without those things?

  120. Woodguy says:

    All,

    Off topic, but interesting.

    @theninjagreg ‘s site hockeystats.ca now has individual corsi for/against each player in a game.

    Just type in the url of the game.

    i.e. The EDM/OTT game was game #2013020111

    You get the game number from the NHL stats page on the game: 2013020111

    Once you have the game number, punch “/game/game#” it into the the url like this:

    http://hockeystats.ca/game/2013020111

    Bang! Tons of info.

    This combined with extraskater.com and the work Mike is doing on Oiler games at boysonthebus.com gives us a massive wealth of info we never had before in such detail.

  121. Woodguy says:

    More good stuff from Eakins: http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=464440

    I like the way he talks about what kind of adjustments they have to make and how to use what they have (speed) to their advantage given that they are not big.

    His call on the hockey gods is spot on as well.

  122. Bushed says:

    Colonel Obvious,

    Making them pay isn’t my point.

    Winning games and playoff series is what I want, and I think playoff teams need a certain amount of size (skill) and balance in their lineup to compete successfully.

    The Broad Street Bully days are past, but players still try to get inside other players’ heads by using trash talking, physical plays both legal and non-legal, fighting, face-washing, and other tactics. I’d call these attempts to intimidate, but if you see it differently, we’ll just disagree.

  123. spoiler says:

    Speaking of trade rumours, there’s lots of talk of course about Miller looking for a West Coast team either by trade or free agency. But I don’t see where he’s going to fit. LA has a starter and Anaheim is happy with the cheap young talent they have. SJS has a starter, VCR would have to buy out their starter, and I think Denver is okay with Varlamov. Coyotes’ Smith has been their MVP these past few seasons.. Dallas is committed to Lehtonen. That pretty much leaves Calgary and Edmonton as the most natural fits.

    And we’re on his no trade list. No idea about Calgary, but if it is updated yearly they likely aren’t too.

    Maybe Minnie? Then they trade Backstrom? Half the US National team already plays for the Wild, he’d have lots of buddies there. I’d pass on Backstrom too.

  124. Colonel Obvious says:

    Bushed,

    Yeah, I don’t buy Gregor’s balance argument. It’s a word that doesn’t mean anything. There is no magical formula that teams need to have. You just have to be better than the other team, and there is more than one way to do that.

    So the Oilers don’t need more balance. They do need to be better. In my opinion there biggest problem is that they aren’t as skilled as everyone says. Watching the Blackhawks last night it seemed to me that the biggest difference between the Oilers and the Blackhawks was how much better Chicago was at making and taking passes, at entering the zone with speed (without going offside), at leaving the zone with crisp passes that land.

    So the Oilers can be soft at times going after the puck and I agree that’s a problem. But they also miss passes a lot, and that’s equally a problem. And neither of these problems have magical solutions like “balance,” or “grit,” or “size,” because these are words without meaning, words that have no referent on the ice.

  125. gcw_rocks says:

    ‘RE: Kulikov. Seems to be on the outs with the coach in Florida based on his minutes so far this season. Last I looked he was getting less minutes than Whitney. I would love to see the Oilers grab him, even if it cost Smid to do it.

    ‘RE: Eakins. The swam defence is a disaster and he has destroyed both a highly productive powerplay and penalty kill. That’s called progress in Oilers land.

  126. cabbiesmacker says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Blue skying.

    I like both players. They’ve both shown enough to me that they can play at this level. They aren’t going to score a ton and they aren’t going to kill the opposition. But they are going to score enough and they going to keep the puck in the other end of the ice.

    That sounds like a workable 3rd line to me.

    Not sure how you define workable but I see one guy who did next to bugger all despite having a decent toolkit and now skates in the KHL, and another who can’t crack the top 12 in St Louis on a regular basis. People can rant on all they like about MPS’ secret powers and wonderful numbers but….the guy can’t crack a decent NHL lineup. At what point do you want this team to rise above alsoran and make the playoffs, because it’s not going to happen waiting for players like MPS and Harti to wake the f up.

    Maybe what you are saying, like many other numbed Oiler fans the past few years, is that you would “settle” for those two being on the team. as third line Oilers no less. Are either better than Smyth at what, 53 with one hand on a walker?

    If they can’t be 4th liners I’m not sure how they become thirds all of a sudden. Possibly in time but right now both are steaming piles of meh, whatever, and maybe some day. Employing similar in your top 9 is how shitty teams stay shitty.

    4th liners sure. Who really gives a rats patoot about 4th liners if they aren’t playing enough minutes to make a difference?

    Hawks 4th last night – Pirri – Bollig – Nordstrom, eats MPS and Harts for lunch.

    Hawks 3rd last night – Kreuger, Bickell, Shaw. You would throw MPS and Harti against that and expect positive results?

    Please take a look at the WC 3rd lines and tell me where MPS and Harts would be a match let alone a plus. I think years of the Oilers being horseshit from 7 down have you grasping for something….anything positive, and I kinda get that.

    Aim higher dude. Gawd knows management doesn’t but the fans have the right.

  127. Colonel Obvious says:

    gcw_rocks,

    Your schtick is almost as tired as Godot’s. If you aren’t willing to make reasoned arguments you are just repeating the same old discredit statements.

    Look at what you wrote. The swarm defense can’t have destroyed the powerplay since it has nothing to do with the powerplay.

    You’re just looking for reasons to blame Eakins. It is as transparent as any DSF post and has as much credibililty.

  128. prairieschooner says:

    I do not see how fining a repeat offender for an offence that he has previously been suspended for makes any sense.

  129. godot10 says:

    The main “problem” with the Oilers skill is that the Oilers defense is still is not good enough to get the breakout passes to the forwards quickly or accurately enough to turn the tables on the big slow opposition forwards and D, and thus, the Oilers can get leaned on. When the puck starts moving faster, as Detroit and Chicago demonstrate, skill can trump size.

    One potential problem with the swarm is that once you regain the puck, there is less certainty as to the location of all your teammates to begin moving the puck forward quickly and safely.

    Gryba is a sneakier Bryan Marchment. Brings more plausible deniability to his cheap shots on both Eller and Hall.

  130. cc says:

    First off, this is very disappointing as an Oiler fan. Taylor Hall is a valuable asset to this team, but lets stop there and LT I know you’re going to disagree.

    Taylor Hall is not the Edmonton Oilers savior! He never was and never will be. Is he good? Yes. Is he the very best forward on this team? Debatable, but not in my opinion.

    As disappointing as this may be for Oilers fans and especially the, ‘I only see Hall fans’ . You may very well be surprised to see there are many more assets on this team then the one you idolized.

    Bring up Omark, and lets keep moving forward. It hurts but its not the end of the world or the season.

    And lets hope its just a tweak.

  131. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Speaking of trade rumours, there’s lots of talk of course about Miller looking for a West Coast team either by trade or free agency.But I don’t see where he’s going to fit.LA has a starter and Anaheim is happy with the cheap young talent they have. SJS has a starter, VCR would have to buy out their starter, and I thinkDenver is okay with Varlamov. Coyotes’ Smith has been their MVP these past few seasons..Dallas is committed to Lehtonen.That pretty much leaves Calgary and Edmonton as the most natural fits.

    And we’re on his no trade list. No idea about Calgary, but if it is updated yearly they likely aren’t too.

    Maybe Minnie? Then they trade Backstrom? Half the US National team already plays for the Wild, he’d have lots of buddies there.I’d pass on Backstrom too.

    Brian Burke watched the BUF game yesterday with Darcy Regier in the BUF suite.

  132. Lois Lowe says:

    The nice part about an injury to Hall (and there isn’t one, really), is that the Oilers certainly have enough forwards to give his minutes to. The issue for me is that Yak hasn’t been very good on the left side, he drifts to the right through the neutral zone and generally tries to enter the offensive zone from that side. Yak is by far the best candidate to shift, but I don’t know if that move would compound his troubles.

    I also liked what Eakins said today about the PP, it needs more shots from either the half wall or the point. The Oilers are best when Nuge is on the half wall and teams have to respect his shot as well as his passing lanes, I think too much has been going all the way back to the point on the PP and it’s getting predictable.

  133. Woodguy says:

    gcw_rocks,

    ‘RE: Eakins. The swam defence is a disaster and he has destroyed both a highly productive powerplay and penalty kill. That’s called progress in Oilers land.

    Lets’s look at the defence, PP, and PK a little closer in terms of shot volumes, which always tell the long term story well.

    5v5 Shots against per 60 min for the Oilers

    12/13 32.2 28th in the NHL
    13/14 28.6 12th in NHL

    So the swarm isn’t a disaster, its actually looking like a nice improvement.

    Powerplay

    Shots per/60

    12/13 41.5 29th in NHL
    13/14 59.4 9th in the NHL

    The powerplay, which hasn’t look good last couple games, is producing more shots.

    Historically the highest shooting teams sustain 5v4 success. Teams come and go into the top 10 with hot shooting percentages, but those do not sustain over time. Shots/60 sustains.

    So the powerplay looks good.

    Penalty kill Shots against per 60

    12/13 53.4 24th in NHL
    13/14 65.4 26th in NHL

    Agreed the PK is worse.

    I look at it in this thread: http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/10/oh-those-oilers.html/comment-page-1#comment-260761 and figured that maybe Hall and Hemsky were the root of the problem.

    Shitty save percentages weren’t helping either, but those balance over time too.

    Last year DD had an unreal .906 4v5 whiched helped a poor PK look better.

  134. godot10 says:

    Krueger was willing to play “faulty” systems and use poor tactics, because he believed player development was more important than system and tactical purity at this stage of the development of the Oilers. The success of his special teams over a fairly significant period of time (2 years in the case of the PP) demonstrates that he can coach systems when he wants to.

    Eakins is a systems coach. Although I think we are going to discover that his systems don’t work any better than Krueger’s. The so called Corsi improvement was no where to be seen against Vancouver, and two heavier teams like the Islanders and Ottawa. San Jose, LA, and Anaheim are better versions of the Islanders and Ottawa. And Phoenix and Vancouver are far better versions of the Islanders.

    Krueger adapts systems and tactics to the players he has. Eakins has his systems. Eakins may be a systems guru, but good players reaching their potential is far more important for teams building around skill.

    (FWIW, Nelson is more like Krueger than he is like Eakins. MacT is more like Eakins than he is like Krueger or Nelson, so MacT’s decision was not really surprising.)

    It is pretty clear which camp I fall in. I can’t wait to see Nelson coach in the NHL when some smart team gives him a chance. Smart means it won’t be the Oilers. But Nelson is will school all these young D for the Oilers, so all will not be lost.

    I hope the Oilers leave Lander and Pitlick in OKC till after the Olympic break, and just let them play for now.

  135. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: More good stuff from Eakins: http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=464440I like the way he talks about what kind of adjustments they have to make and how to use what they have (speed) to their advantage given that they are not big.His call on the hockey gods is spot on as well.

    That was a wonderful interview. I can’t think of a single thing to disagree with. All stuff that has been said around here by the reasonable. Too much passing, not enough shots, not enough traffic, weak positioning in the Dzone, puck luck, improved goaltending, use their speed. yadda yadda yadda. Delightful.

  136. spoiler says:

    How many times this season have the Pats staved off defeat with seconds on the clock? And then they win the cointoss.

  137. justDOit says:

    Woodguy: Brian Burke watched the BUF game yesterday with Darcy Regier in the BUF suite.

    Two GMs – one Cup!

  138. Hammers says:

    Why worry about suspensions , as it either happens or doesn’t and it doesn’t help the team who’s player gets hurt as most of the time you play with more than 5-10 games in between . Eakins must assume for the next few games he doesn’t have Hall and hope he only misses a few games . I like keeping Gordon / Hemsky / Smyth as a line for tough minutes . That gives us Arco / Perron & Ebs with RNH / Yak / ? Omark or Pitlick . Putting Jones on anything more than the 4th is a mistake . If you try Omark or Pitlick until Gags returns we find out there real value . When Gags is back slot him on the R wing with RNH .

  139. B S says:

    Intent is Gryba leading with his f#$%ing knee. Am I the only one who saw him (and still see him) lean back and come in knee first on Hall? It’s either intent, or the sort of incompetence that deserves to be punished. And intent is the problem with this league. Stop giving excuses for dirty plays like this and start making players think twice before they pinch a guy along the boards knee first, then grab onto him and twist him around. You can’t determine intent, but you can determine that it’s a stupid play and has no place among professional athletes. Regarding the injury, not to be a downer, but Hall skating after the play, and walking without crutches doesn’t mean much. It means it’s not a torn LCL or ACL.

    It could be a sprained to torn MCL (as has been mentioned above) that wouldn’t be so bad from a long term perspective (surgery for torn MCLs eventually strengthen the ligament, recovery time a season at most for a kid in his prime).

    I’m worried it’s a dislocation of the kneecap,or tearing of the fascias and muscles along the back and inside of the knee,or damage to the miniscus. Potentially chronic problems that could weaken his knee and shorten the time he can effectively skate at his top level.

  140. Logan91 says:

    godot10:
    Krueger was willing to play “faulty” systems and use poor tactics, because he believed player development was more important than system and tactical purity at this stage of the development of the Oilers.The success of his special teams over a fairly significant period of time (2 years in the case of the PP) demonstrates that he can coach systems when he wants to.

    Eakins is a systems coach.Although I think we are going to discover that his systems don’t work any better than Krueger’s.The so called Corsi improvement was no where to be seen against Vancouver, and two heavier teams like the Islanders and Ottawa.San Jose, LA, and Anaheim are better versions of the Islanders and Ottawa.And Phoenix and Vancouver are far better versions of the Islanders.

    Krueger adapts systems and tactics to the players he has.Eakins has his systems.Eakins may be a systems guru, but good players reaching their potential is far more important for teams building around skill.

    (FWIW, Nelson is more like Krueger than he is like Eakins. MacT is more like Eakins than he is like Krueger or Nelson, so MacT’s decision was not really surprising.)

    It is pretty clear which camp I fall in.I can’t wait to see Nelson coach in the NHL when some smart team gives him a chance.Smart means it won’t be the Oilers.But Nelson is will school all these young D for the Oilers, so all will not be lost.

    I hope the Oilers leave Lander and Pitlick in OKC till after the Olympic break, and just let them play for now.

    Very well said, I could not agree more.

  141. sliderule says:

    Hall got hit because he tries to beat everybody with speed.

    How many times have we seen him just squeeze thru or occasionally get plastered along the wall.

    NhL players do not let you dangle at full speed without retribution .

    Taylor is a wonderfully skilled player but he has to learn to use his speed less recklessly .

  142. Old School G says:

    Next 4 games against MTL,WAS,PHX, & LA.

    Hall is out, but this is the week MacT makes a move, I could see a sneaky little 3 out of 4 coming here; that puts us at 5-7-1. Now where was I?

  143. TheOtherJohn says:

    justDOit: Two GMs – one Cup!

    I assume the purpose of pointing out the 2 GM’s – 1 Cup comment was to be dismissive. Right? The Oilers have 3 current & former GM’s in the organization: Lowe, Howson & MacT that have zero Cups as management.

  144. B S says:

    sliderule,

    You’re right Sliderule, it’s Hall’s fault that Gryba is slow and had to take out his legs in order to stop him. That’s why the rulebook says its okay to make the knees the initial point of contact, or to grab and hold a player after he gets by you. The only way to stop these plays, and to let the skilled players continuously dazzle us with their abilities is to call the game properly. The ones to blame here are Gryba, and the officials, not Hall.

  145. spoiler says:

    godot10: Krueger was willing to play “faulty” systems and use poor tactics, because he believed player development was more important than system and tactical purity at this stage of the development of the Oilers. The success of his special teams over a fairly significant period of time (2 years in the case of the PP) demonstrates that he can coach systems when he wants to.Eakins is a systems coach. Although I think we are going to discover that his systems don’t work any better than Krueger’s. The so called Corsi improvement was no where to be seen against Vancouver, and two heavier teams like the Islanders and Ottawa. San Jose, LA, and Anaheim are better versions of the Islanders and Ottawa. And Phoenix and Vancouver are far better versions of the Islanders.Krueger adapts systems and tactics to the players he has. Eakins has his systems. Eakins may be a systems guru, but good players reaching their potential is far more important for teams building around skill.(FWIW, Nelson is more like Krueger than he is like Eakins. MacT is more like Eakins than he is like Krueger or Nelson, so MacT’s decision was not really surprising.)It is pretty clear which camp I fall in. I can’t wait to see Nelson coach in the NHL when some smart team gives him a chance. Smart means it won’t be the Oilers. But Nelson is will school all these young D for the Oilers, so all will not be lost.I hope the Oilers leave Lander and Pitlick in OKC till after the Olympic break, and just let them play for now.

    You cannot know many of the statements you make here. They are speculative and cherry pick. You are building a narrative. Not trying to construct the truth from actual evidence. The evidence you do use is on the order of comparing two years to 9 games.

    For some actual evidence-based thought, this is an excellent post:

    Woodguy: gcw_rocks,
    ‘RE: Eakins. The swam defence is a disaster and he has destroyed both a highly productive powerplay and penalty kill. That’s called progress in Oilers land.

    Lets’s look at the defence, PP, and PK a little closer in terms of shot volumes, which always tell the long term story well.

    5v5 Shots against per 60 min for the Oilers

    12/13 32.2 28th in the NHL
    13/14 28.6 12th in NHL

    So the swarm isn’t a disaster, its actually looking like a nice improvement.

    Powerplay
    Shots per/60

    12/13 41.5 29th in NHL
    13/14 59.4 9th in the NHL

    The powerplay, which hasn’t look good last couple games, is producing more shots.

    Historically the highest shooting teams sustain 5v4 success. Teams come and go into the top 10 with hot shooting percentages, but those do not sustain over time. Shots/60 sustains.

    So the powerplay looks good.

    Penalty kill Shots against per 60

    12/13 53.4 24th in NHL
    13/14 65.4 26th in NHL

    Agreed the PK is worse.

    I look at it in this thread: http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/10/oh-those-oilers.html/comment-page-1#comment-260761 and figured that maybe Hall and Hemsky were the root of the problem.

    Shitty save percentages weren’t helping either, but those balance over time too.

    Last year DD had an unreal .906 4v5 whiched helped a poor PK look better.

  146. Woodguy says:

    justDOit: Two GMs – one Cup!

    *wins the thread*

  147. justDOit says:

    TheOtherJohn: I assume the purpose of pointing out the 2 GM’s – 1 Cup comment was to be dismissive. Right? The Oilers have 3 current & former GM’s in the organization: Lowe, Howson & MacT that have zero Cups as management.

    Well no. I’m making fun of Mr. Sixcups while also playing off a disgusting internet video sensation, which I’ll assume you haven’t heard of. Don’t worry, I don’t expect everyone to know about it, nor do I recommend that anyone watch it. But it’s out there.

  148. Colonel Obvious says:

    godot10:
    Krueger was willing to play “faulty” systems and use poor tactics, because he believed player development was more important than system and tactical purity at this stage of the development of the Oilers.The success of his special teams over a fairly significant period of time (2 years in the case of the PP) demonstrates that he can coach systems when he wants to.

    Eakins is a systems coach.Although I think we are going to discover that his systems don’t work any better than Krueger’s.The so called Corsi improvement was no where to be seen against Vancouver, and two heavier teams like the Islanders and Ottawa.San Jose, LA, and Anaheim are better versions of the Islanders and Ottawa.And Phoenix and Vancouver are far better versions of the Islanders.

    Krueger adapts systems and tactics to the players he has.Eakins has his systems.Eakins may be a systems guru, but good players reaching their potential is far more important for teams building around skill.

    (FWIW, Nelson is more like Krueger than he is like Eakins. MacT is more like Eakins than he is like Krueger or Nelson, so MacT’s decision was not really surprising.)

    It is pretty clear which camp I fall in.I can’t wait to see Nelson coach in the NHL when some smart team gives him a chance.Smart means it won’t be the Oilers.But Nelson is will school all these young D for the Oilers, so all will not be lost.

    I hope the Oilers leave Lander and Pitlick in OKC till after the Olympic break, and just let them play for now.

    What is the evidence that any of this is true? Krueger had his systems like everyone else. Have you forgotten the constant talk of pre-gapping. Where are you getting this idea that he adapted the system to the personel? And besides, what makes that a good thing? The adapted Oilers were terrible, lest you forget that they were the second worst team in the league last year at even strength. Special teams and Dubnyk were good last year. Everything else was awful.

    As to Nelson, I happen to like him a lot. However, I like him for many of the same reasons I like Eakins. Namely, he has had success in the AHL. However, let’s not make him into some kind of coaching genius or brilliant developer of talent. I mean, when he had all that talent in the AHL durin the lockout, his team wasn’t winning.

    So unless, you back up what you are saying with specific arguments, you are just making stuff up.

  149. mc79hockey says:

    Neither Ottawa nor the Islanders are notably big teams according to Mirtle: http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/10/2013-14-nhl-teams-by-height-weight-and.html

    Winnipeg’s pretty big team and you notice it, I think. Oilers kicked their ass shotswise.

  150. oliveoilers says:

    Hammers:
    Why worry about suspensions , as it either happens or doesn’t and it doesn’t help the team who’s player gets hurt as most of the time you play with more than 5-10 games in between . Eakins must assume for the next few games he doesn’t have Hall and hope he only misses a few games .I like keeping Gordon / Hemsky / Smyth as a line for tough minutes . That gives usArco / Perron & Ebswith RNH / Yak / ?Omark or Pitlick . Putting Jones on anything more than the 4th is a mistake . If you try Omark or Pitlick until Gags returns we find out there real value .When Gags is back slot him on the R wing with RNH .

    Is that like not giving a murderer life in prison, as it has no real effect on society and there are still murders? It is a punishment, not a deterrent. Bad boy, go stand in the corner! You screw up, you get punished.

  151. Bag of Pucks says:

    I absolutely love Hall’s moxie/courage etc and I sincerely hope that he’s sustained no damage as a result of this hit, BUT he has to learn to avoid hits like this.

    Gryba has such a strong angle here, there is no gap for Hall to exploit. It’s a hugely low percentage play where trying to drive wide virtually assures a hard hit. I’m all for Hall showing courage and leading by example, but especially for a franchise player, discretion has to become the better part of valor.

    This reminds me of the predraft comment Hall made where he described almost exactly a play like this, saying he wouldn’t chip it along the boards as that’s a cheap play. Taylor, love that mentality when it’s Game 7 of the final. Regular season tilt where you have the lead and a dirty player is bearing down on you? A) Brake and raise your elbow or B) Chip it along the boards and brace for impact.

    Fingers crossed he’s ok.

  152. justDOit says:

    justDOit,

    Is it too late to claim that I was also pointing out how difficult it is to win a Cup in this league? Two long-standing GMs who have overseen some good teams, but only one cup between them.

  153. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    Krueger was willing to play “faulty” systems and use poor tactics, because he believed player development was more important than system and tactical purity at this stage of the development of the Oilers

    Please link to the interview where he said this.

    The success of his special teams over a fairly significant period of time (2 years in the case of the PP) demonstrates that he can coach systems when he wants to.

    Ok, lets look at the top 5 PP’s in the NHL over the past PP last two years 3 different way. PP%, PP SH% and PP SF/60

    11/12
    Top 5 PP’s via PP% NHL.com
    NAS
    SJS
    EDM
    VAN
    PIT

    Top 5 PP’s via SH%
    NSH
    EDM
    NYI
    TOR
    WIN

    Top 5 PP’s via SF/60
    SJS
    PIT
    VAN
    CBJ
    ANA

    12/13
    Top 5 PP’s via PP% NHL.com
    WSH
    PIT
    PHI
    ANA
    MTL

    Top 5 PP’s via SH%
    WSH
    EDM
    CGY
    LAK
    PIT

    Top 5 PP’s via SH/60
    SJS
    ANA
    PIT
    PHI
    OTT

    What this little snippet shows is that the higher volume shooting teams generally end up with the best PP.

    Gabe goes into more detail here: http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/4/9/2100045/what-drives-power-play-success

    The key part:

    Shooting rate – shots for per 60 mins at 5-on-4 – is by far the most persistent talent. PP efficiency and especially shooting percentage regress much more heavily to the mean. A team’s shooting percentage in one half of its games has almost no predictive value for the other half of its games.

    So teams that rely on shooting % rely on luck that won’t last.

    Let’s look at Krueger’s PP over the last two years in terms of shot volume and in terms of shooting %.

    11/12
    SF/60 44.4 26th in NHL
    SH% 16.1% 2nd in NHL

    12/13
    SF/60 41.5 29th in NHL
    SH% 17.2% 2nd in the NHL.

    So in the previous two year, they relied on a very high shooting % which is near impossible to sustain over time.

    PP this year:

    13/14

    SF/60 59.4 9th in NHL
    SH% 7.7% 25th in NHL

    I think we’ve found the problem to the PP this year.

    Will it turn around?

    Yes. Why?

    Consider the following PP SH% for the last two years. Average and lowest.

    11/12
    Average PP SH% 12%
    Lowest PP SH% 9%

    12/13
    Average PP SH% 11.6%
    Lowest PP SH% 9.4%

    The chances of the Oiler PP staying at 7.7%SH are nearly zero.

    The fact that they are generating more shots (except last game, lordy) tells me this PP is being coached for long term success.

  154. spoiler says:

    Bob Stauffer‏@Bob_Stauffer 6h

    @EdmontonOilers prospect Jujhar Khaira missed two games this weekend with a shoulder issue…may be out a few more games

    G Money was right last night. Welcome to the Oilers.

  155. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Woodguy says:
    October 20, 2013 at 3:38 pm
    godot10,
    Krueger was willing to play “faulty” systems and use poor tactics, because he believed player development was more important than system and tactical purity at this stage of the development of the Oilers
    Please link to the interview where he said this.
    The success of his special teams over a fairly significant period of time (2 years in the case of the PP) demonstrates that he can coach systems when he wants to.
    Ok, lets look at the top 5 PP’s in the NHL over the past PP last two years 3 different way. PP%, PP SH% and PP SF/60
    11/12
    Top 5 PP’s via PP% NHL.com
    NAS
    SJS
    EDM
    VAN
    PIT
    Top 5 PP’s via SH%
    NSH
    EDM
    NYI
    TOR
    WIN
    Top 5 PP’s via SF/60
    SJS
    PIT
    VAN
    CBJ
    ANA
    12/13
    Top 5 PP’s via PP% NHL.com
    WSH
    PIT
    PHI
    ANA
    MTL
    Top 5 PP’s via SH%
    WSH
    EDM
    CGY
    LAK
    PIT
    Top 5 PP’s via SH/60
    SJS
    ANA
    PIT
    PHI
    OTT
    What this little snippet shows is that the higher volume shooting teams generally end up with the best PP.
    Gabe goes into more detail here: http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/4/9/2100045/what-drives-power-play-success
    The key part:
    Shooting rate – shots for per 60 mins at 5-on-4 – is by far the most persistent talent. PP efficiency and especially shooting percentage regress much more heavily to the mean. A team’s shooting percentage in one half of its games has almost no predictive value for the other half of its games.
    So teams that rely on shooting % rely on luck that won’t last.
    Let’s look at Krueger’s PP over the last two years in terms of shot volume and in terms of shooting %.
    11/12
    SF/60 44.4 26th in NHL
    SH% 16.1% 2nd in NHL
    12/13
    SF/60 41.5 29th in NHL
    SH% 17.2% 2nd in the NHL.
    So in the previous two year, they relied on a very high shooting % which is near impossible to sustain over time.
    PP this year:
    13/14
    SF/60 59.4 9th in NHL
    SH% 7.7% 25th in NHL
    I think we’ve found the problem to the PP this year.
    Will it turn around?
    Yes. Why?
    Consider the following PP SH% for the last two years. Average and lowest.
    11/12
    Average PP SH% 12%
    Lowest PP SH% 9%
    12/13
    Average PP SH% 11.6%
    Lowest PP SH% 9.4%
    The chances of the Oiler PP staying at 7.7%SH are nearly zero.
    The fact that they are generating more shots (except last game, lordy) tells me this PP is being coached for long term success.

    Just beautiful. Both this post and the first one.

    I don’t know if we have enough games yet to know what this team’s average is going to be in terms of generating or stifling shots in the three game situations, but I’d like to think that since Eakins is still learning about his players, and since they are still learning BigD’s system play, that the numbers will look better as the sample builds in size. And eventually shooting percentage will find a home under the fat part of the bell curve too.

  156. Dominoiler says:

    Woodguy: 11/12
    SF/60 44.4 26th in NHL
    SH% 16.1% 2nd in NHL
    12/13
    SF/60 41.5 29th in NHL
    SH% 17.2% 2nd in the NHL.
    So in the previous two year, they relied on a very high shooting % which is near impossible to sustain over time.

    This statement seems rather presumptive,.. they sustained it for two seasons, no?!..

    Not taking exception to your general push to establish the correlation between a higher shooting rate (SF/60) and higher PP scoring rate, but I dont think that your one sided argument pushes out the plausibility of PP success ‘without’ a high shooting rate.. as those top 5 comparative stats show, they are 2-3 teams in the top 5 for PP scoring % that arnt top 5 PP SF/60..

  157. spoiler says:

    Dominoiler: This statement seems rather presumptive,.. they sustained it for two seasons, no?!..Not taking exception to your general push to establish the correlation between a higher shooting rate (SF/60) and higher PP scoring rate, but I dont think that your one sided argument pushes out the plausibility of PP success ‘without’ a high shooting rate.. as those top 5 comparative stats show, they are 2-3 teams in the top 5 for PP scoring % that arnt top 5 PP SF/60..

    That’s why he said this:

    Woodguy: What this little snippet shows is that the higher volume shooting teams generally end up with the best PP.

    Gabe goes into more detail here: http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/4/9/2100045/what-drives-power-play-success

  158. B S says:

    Woodguy,

    I don’t want to rain on your parade, but Krueger did seem to rely on the neilson line of thought (scoring chances are what matters) so it’s quite likely that Krueger’s special teams were based on picking your shots (which is what the Oilers did yesterday) and allowing low probability perimeter shots, while clogging up the prime scoring locations. I think he relied on this 5v5 as well (see a 4th line with atrocious corsi, but relatively low GA/60). Luck and chance are simply not know, therefore not controlling all the variables, You see an 80% accuracy, I see 20% of wins that don’t fit the Corsi model for winning hockey games (i.e. more shots equal more goals, equal more wins). The Leafs are a solid example of this.

    Note, I’m not saying this is the correct way to run a team or win hockey games consistently, 5v5 it didn’t work for Krueger worth a damn, just that it is a way that does win that does not fit Corsi, and is a much more likely scenario than Krueger flipping Heads 190 times out of 200.

  159. B S says:

    B S,

    *(Which is what the Oilers did yesterday **5v5).

  160. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    godot10,

    Krueger was willing to play “faulty” systems and use poor tactics, because he believed player development was more important than system and tactical purity at this stage of the development of the Oilers

    Please link to the interview where he said this.

    The success of his special teams over a fairly significant period of time (2 years in the case of the PP) demonstrates that he can coach systems when he wants to.

    Ok, lets look at the top 5 PP’s in the NHL over the pastPP last two years 3 different way.PP%, PP SH% and PP SF/60

    11/12
    Top 5 PP’s via PP% NHL.com
    NAS
    SJS
    EDM
    VAN
    PIT

    Top 5 PP’s via SH%
    NSH
    EDM
    NYI
    TOR
    WIN

    Top 5 PP’s via SF/60
    SJS
    PIT
    VAN
    CBJ
    ANA

    12/13
    Top 5 PP’s via PP% NHL.com
    WSH
    PIT
    PHI
    ANA
    MTL

    Top 5 PP’s via SH%
    WSH
    EDM
    CGY
    LAK
    PIT

    Top 5 PP’s via SH/60
    SJS
    ANA
    PIT
    PHI
    OTT

    What this little snippet shows is that the higher volume shooting teams generally end up with the best PP.

    Gabe goes into more detail here: http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/4/9/2100045/what-drives-power-play-success

    The key part:

    Shooting rate – shots for per 60 mins at 5-on-4 – is by far the most persistent talent.PP efficiency and especially shooting percentage regress much more heavily to the mean.A team’s shooting percentage in one half of its games has almost no predictive value for the other half of its games.

    So teams that rely on shooting % rely on luck that won’t last.

    Let’s look at Krueger’s PP over the last two years in terms of shot volume and in terms of shooting %.

    11/12
    SF/60 44.426th in NHL
    SH%16.1%2nd in NHL

    12/13
    SF/60 41.529th in NHL
    SH% 17.2% 2nd in the NHL.

    So in the previous two year, they relied on a very high shooting % which is near impossible to sustain over time.

    PP this year:

    13/14

    SF/60 59.4 9th in NHL
    SH% 7.7% 25th in NHL

    I think we’ve found the problem to the PP this year.

    Will it turn around?

    Yes.Why?

    Consider the following PP SH% for the last two years.Average and lowest.

    11/12
    Average PP SH% 12%
    Lowest PP SH% 9%

    12/13
    Average PP SH% 11.6%
    Lowest PP SH% 9.4%

    The chances of the Oiler PP staying at 7.7%SH are nearly zero.

    The fact that they are generating more shots (except last game, lordy) tells me this PP is being coached for long term success.

    “Every quantitative measurement we have shows we are winning this war,” Robert McNamara said after returning from his first trip to South Vietnam in April 1962.

  161. Woodguy says:

    B S:
    Woodguy,

    I don’t want to rain on your parade, but Krueger did seem to rely on the neilson line of thought (scoring chances are what matters) so it’s quite likely that Krueger’s special teamswere based on picking your shots (which is what the Oilers did yesterday) and allowing low probability perimeter shots, while clogging up the prime scoring locations. I think he relied on this 5v5 as well (see a 4th line with atrocious corsi, but relatively low GA/60). Luck and chance are simply not know, therefore not controlling all the variables, You see an 80% accuracy, I see 20% of wins that don’t fit the Corsi model for winning hockey games (i.e. more shots equal more goals, equal more wins). The Leafs are a solid example of this.

    Note, I’m not saying this is the correct way to run a team or win hockey games consistently, 5v5 it didn’t work for Krueger worth a damn, just that it is a way that does win that does not fit Corsi, and is a much more likely scenario than Krueger flipping Heads 190 times out of 200.

    That sounds like backwards reasoning.

    High SH% will result in higher PP conversion rate.

    The thing is though, no team sustains it.

    The top 10 in terms SH% change every year.

    Some teams linger, but it doesn’t sustain.

    If someone could actually coach a higher SH%, wouldn’t they?

    All the analysis show’s that SH% regresses hard to mean for everyone.

  162. Woodguy says:

    godot10: “Every quantitative measurement we have shows we are winning this war,”Robert McNamara said after returning from his first trip to South Vietnam in April 1962.

    This is my pencil.

    My pencil is green.

  163. oliveoilers says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I absolutely love Hall’s moxie/courage etc and I sincerely hope that he’s sustained no damage as a result of this hit, BUT he has to learn to avoid hits like this.

    Gryba has such a strong angle here, there is no gap for Hall to exploit. It’s a hugely low percentage play where trying to drive wide virtually assures a hard hit. I’m all for Hall showing courage and leading by example, but especially for a franchise player, discretion has to become the better part of valor.

    This reminds me of the predraft comment Hall made where he described almost exactly a play like this, saying he wouldn’t chip it along the boards as that’s a cheap play. Taylor, love that mentality when it’s Game 7 of the final. Regular season tilt where you have the lead and a dirty player is bearing down on you? A) Brake and raise your elbow or B) Chip it along the boards and brace for impact.

    Fingers crossed he’s ok.

    Hate to say you’re wrong, but you’re wrong. There was a gap. Hall took it. Gryba could only stop him by a knee on knee. Wasn’t called, but that’s a different matter.

  164. denny33 says:

    Bushed,

    That would include our own head coach – who expounded on what opposition teams try to do against the oilers….and we see it night in and night out…..

  165. Woodguy says:

    Dominoiler: This statement seems rather presumptive,.. they sustained it for two seasons, no?!..

    Not taking exception to your general push to establish the correlation between a higher shooting rate (SF/60) and higher PP scoring rate, but I dont think that your one sided argument pushes out the plausibility of PP success ‘without’ a high shooting rate.. as those top 5 comparative stats show, they are 2-3 teams in the top 5 for PP scoring % that arnt top 5 PP SF/60..

    Basically same answer as I gave BS:

    High SH% will result in higher PP conversion rate.

    The thing is though, no team sustains it.

    The top 10 in terms SH% change every year.

    Some teams linger, but it doesn’t sustain.

    If someone could actually coach a higher SH%, wouldn’t they?

    All the analysis show’s that SH% regresses hard to mean for everyone.

    NSH is a good example.

    Same coach forever. Here’s their 5v4 SH% over the last 6 years.

    12/13 12.6%
    11/12 13.1%
    10/11 16.8%
    09/10 10.8%
    08/09 8%
    07/08 10.5%

    Can a team shot hot on the PP for a couple years? Sure.

    Can you coach a higher SH% on the PP? Maybe, but no one has done it over enough games to think “hmmmm, what’s going on there”

    The teams that consistently are at the top of the 5v4 efficiency rate shoot the most.

    They are joined at the top by teams who have a hot year SH% wise, but they come and go while the volume shooters hang around.

  166. kooler says:

    justDOit,

    The Batons should try Brandon Davidson on wing….kid seems like he can skate and likes to push up…he could be our Burns. Worth a shift or two?

  167. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Woodguy: Basically same answer as I gave BS:

    High SH% will result in higher PP conversion rate.

    The thing is though, no team sustains it.

    The top 10 in terms SH% change every year.

    Some teams linger, but it doesn’t sustain.

    If someone could actually coach a higher SH%, wouldn’t they?

    All the analysis show’s that SH% regresses hard to mean for everyone.

    NSH is a good example.

    Same coach forever.Here’s their 5v4 SH% over the last 6 years.

    12/13 12.6%
    11/12 13.1%
    10/11 16.8%
    09/10 10.8%
    08/09 8%
    07/08 10.5%

    Can a team shot hot on the PP for a couple years?Sure.

    Can you coach a higher SH% on the PP?Maybe, but no one has done it over enough games to think “hmmmm, what’s going on there”

    The teams that consistently are at the top of the 5v4 efficiency rate shoot the most.

    They are joined at the top by teams who have a hot year SH% wise, but they come and go while the volume shooters hang around.

    While you’re on the right track here…you also need to look at PP opportunities.

    The variance from best to worst is quite striking.

    For example, this season, SJS have 44 opportunities thus far, the NYR have only 22.

    To be meaningful, your analysis has to take opportunity into account.

  168. nycoil says:

    I mentioned in the game day thread that I was watching the game with two doctors. They said it is likely MCL-related, but obviously can’t tell the degree of the damage without more info. Gryba is a repeat offender, and he clearly was beaten wide by Hall and recklessly threw out his knee to impede him. I don’t think it was dirty so much as stupid. A couple of games as a repeat offender seems right.

  169. Dominoiler says:

    Woodguy: If someone could actually coach a higher SH%, wouldn’t they?

    (I really liked that line!)

    All the analysis show’s that SH% regresses hard to mean for everyone.
    NSH is a good example.
    Same coach forever. Here’s their 5v4 SH% over the last 6 years.
    12/13 12.6%
    11/12 13.1%
    10/11 16.8%
    09/10 10.8%
    08/09 8%
    07/08 10.5%
    Can a team shot hot on the PP for a couple years? Sure.
    Can you coach a higher SH% on the PP? Maybe, but no one has done it over enough games to think “hmmmm, what’s going on there”

    Woodguy,

    Although you’ve highlighted coaching input to shooting percentage, I think is far more related to the personnel on the ice. In a way, I can understand that the coached PP system would be a factor. I would argue that the 5 year sample does not include a fixed set of players, there are outside influences not being considered.. to my eye, nashville appears to have trended upwards significantly and would then want to look at the change of conditions from 2010-11 onwards.. Maybe it was getting better production (SF/60?!) from their defense and had established weber as a consistent option?!.. anyways, end of the day i’ll have to agree that a power play that is working well will be shooting more consistently (sustained offensive zone pressure).. It makes sense.. and so does striving for it.. and thats the point of the convo, right?!..

    Maybe the oilers scored more from the rush, while on the PP, more often than with sustained offensive zone pressure (but I remember well setup goals too, cant tell without statistics and so we are back to corsi n such anyways)..

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