#5 PROSPECT: JUJHAR KHAIRA

The Edmonton Oilers badly need Jujhar Khaira to  turn into a useful NHL player. His skill set (big man, powerful stride, aggressiveness and puck skills) make him the best powerforward prospect in the system.

PREVIOUSLY NUMBER FIVE ON THE WINTER LIST

  • December 2004: D Doug Lynch
  • December 2005: C Andrew Cogliano
  • December 2006: L Jean-Francois Jacques
  • December 2007: C Rob Schremp
  • December 2008: D Alex Plante
  • December 2009: D Theo Peckham
  • December 2010: D Theo Peckham
  • December 2011: D Martin Marincin
  • December 2012: L Teemu Hartikainen

Cogliano is the only member of the ’5′ list to emerge as a legit NHL player, and frankly his presence at 4 and 5 on previous lists is probably an error in ranking (he should have been higher). The rest of this lists is guys who didn’t make it at all, guys who are adding down arrows as we speak, and the young Marincin. We’d be silly to ignore the won loss record (1 win, Cogliano; 4 losses—Lynch, Jacques, Schremp, Plante; and two guys we’re not sure of yet in Peckham and Hartikainen we’ll call ties) in past seasons.

WHAT THEY SAID ON DRAFT DAY

khaira1

  • Redline: we believe this kid could be the biggest/best sleeper of the entire draft. Prince George is so far off the beaten path teams don’t even travel there for WHL games, much less BCHL contests, so he gets zero exposure. But this kid is big, mean, aggressive, nasty, and guess what… he can score too. Does the dirty work in the corners, bangs bodies and wins battles, and loves to initiate heavy contact. Powerful stride with great balance and gets leverage on his hits. Has surprisingly soft hands and puck skills with playmaking ability. Creates lots of space for smaller teammates and makes everyone braver. Very raw defensively.

POINTS BY DISCIPLINE, JUJHAR KHAIRA

PLAYER EV PP PK TOTAL
KHAIRA 2012-13 (NCAA) 37, 2-14-16 .432 37, 4-4-8 .216 37, 0-0-0 37, 6-18-24
KHAIRA 2013-14 (WHL) 12, 2-3-5 .417 12, 1-2-3 .250 12, 0-0-0 12, 3-5-8

Across two leagues it looks like we have him surrounded offensively. Khaira’s skills apparently earn him time on the PP (front of the net presence?) but he’s miles from someone like Marco Roy with the man advantage. His NHLE’s over three years (82, 6-11-17; 82, 5-18-23 and this season 82, 6-10-16) suggest we’re looking at a PF who has some issues offensively and he is not a certain top 6F candidate in pro hockey.

PREVIOUS TOP 20 RANKING

  • Summer 2012: 15
  • Winter 2012: 7
  • Summer 2013: 6
  • Winter 2013: 5

The Oilers drafted Khaira in 2012 summer in the third round, with the hope that he or Mitchell Moroz (taken one round earlier) would be able to give the team a big forward who could play with an edge. 18 months later, Khaira leads the pairing but there’s a long road to go.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING THIS SEASON

khaira2

  • Todd Nelson: “I noticed a drastic change at this development camp. He’s improving every time I see him, and after seeing his brothers, if everything goes as planned, he’s going to fill out nicely.”
  • Kevin McCartney: Khaira was one of the few Oilers who was generating offence from down low. He drove the net, banged bodies to win pucks, and generally caused havoc for the Calgary defenders. It was obvious he’s a prospect of interest. He did, however, over-pursue the puck at times and was left stranded on plays in which Calgary was able to move the puck off their end wall. He may be used to hockey in which his physical skills are superior to those around him, or perhaps his college team played an offensive system in which the centre went low. In either case, his defensive coverage in transition was non-existent. Once the Flames had their half-court established, Khaira continued to over-pursue all the way to the side boards.
  • This blog: Young man showed flashes of brilliance–and size–but will spend the winter with the Everett Silvertips. We should expect some impressive boxcars. This is probably the right call, although some wondered if time in OKC would have been a wise option.
  • Bill Muckalt, Michigan Tech asst coach“We see him as a big time power forward. He skates really well, very good down low, strong on the puck, has good vision and great offensive instincts. I think he has a lot of potential to be a pro hockey player.”
  • Khaira: “I think I could be a big asset in the offensive zone, holding guys off behind the zone and be a good two-way forward.”

khaira332013-14

Khaira overcame injury earlier in the season and is back and productive with the Silvertips. Khaira can play center or wing, but is getting increased playing time in the middle with Everett. His WHL is an extremely defensive team, so I’m tempted to give him a small break on the lack of offense so far this season.

ETA KHAIRA

In ranking Khaira at #5 this winter, it’s also important to mention he may be the most valued forward in the system. The Oilers have average sized and big skilled among the forward group in abundance, but are very much lacking a size/speed/rugged player like Khaira. The fact that he can play in the middle, and is getting an education in defensive play from Kevin Constantine just adds to the attraction.

Khaira will turn pro a year from now and will have an enormous opportunity to show well. The organization is dying for his player type and the progress made already may mean he gets a long look next fall with the big club. If Khaira can score enough to play in the top 9F the Oilers will make room for him the moment he’s ready.

No other forward in the system has that kind of opportunity.

 

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65 Responses to "#5 PROSPECT: JUJHAR KHAIRA"

  1. Hammers says:

    Fingers crossed for him and or Moroz . Doubt it for both to make it . Like all things in Oil town time will tell .

  2. Halfwise says:

    Will there be a contest called “Are you better than a Marlie?”

  3. Lynas1 says:

    Any idea if JK can win a draw? If he can, that’s a big plus.

  4. mc79hockey says:

    mc79 was abusing small sample sizes in his recent theory, the same way he criticized the abuse of small sample sizes in those pummelling Dubnyk early in the season.

    The coin was flipped 22 times. Looking back after 22 flips, one notes that heads appeared 6 times in the first 7 flips, but after 22 flips we are pretty much at 11 heads, 11 tails.

    That is pretty much the correct way to look at the Oilers season so far in terms of Corsi close, in terms of a Corsi close above 43% being heads, and below being tails.

    Just reversion to the mean of a normal distribution.

    That’s one possibility. If there’s been a change to the tactics at the same time that the performance falls off, it’s pretty sensible to look at that as well.

  5. Young Oil says:

    Call me deluded, but the failure of this year’s team has caused me to become wildly optimistic about our prospect forwards. I fully expect Roy, Yakimov, and Chase to make the show, likely Khaira and Pitlick, and one of our other forward prospects, whether it be Moroz/Houck/Platzer. Then draft a #2C in the top 5 this year. Imagine, in three years:

    RNH-Hall-Ebs
    2014 draft pick-Perron-Yakupov
    Yakimov-Khaira-Roy
    Chase-Moroz-Pitlick

    Then for defence, Petry, Schultz, Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, and one of Fedun/Gernat/Musil/Davidson.

    Plus Harski if he comes back.

    Plus any more successful picks in the next three years.

    Plus whatever we get from trades for any current Oiler not listed, or free agents.

    Don’t care at the moment that there is no way in hell that everything works out that way, I just need something to be happy about when it comes to the Oilers at the moment.

    Keep the Kool Aid coming!

  6. Lowetide says:

    Young Oil:
    Call me deluded, but the failure of this year’s team has caused me to become wildly optimistic about our prospect forwards. I fully expect Roy, Yakimov, and Chase to make the show, likely Khaira and Pitlick, and one of our other forward prospects, whether it be Moroz/Houck/Platzer.Then draft a #2Cin the top 5 this year. Imagine, in three years:

    RNH-Hall-Ebs
    2014 draft pick-Perron-Yakupov
    Yakimov-Khaira-Roy
    Chase-Moroz-Pitlick

    Then for defence, Petry, Schultz, Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin, and one of Fedun/Gernat/Musil/Davidson.

    Plus Harski if he comes back.

    Plus any more successful picks in the next three years.

    Plus whatever we get from trades for any current Oiler not listed, or free agents.

    Don’t care at the moment that there is no way in hell that everything works out that way, I just need something to be happy about when it comes to the Oilers at the moment.

    Keep the Kool Aid coming!

    It never works out that way. Here’s December 2007, six made it and that’s a damn good return.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2007/12/oilers-top-20-prospects.html

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: His skill set (big man, powerful stride, aggressiveness and puck skills) make him the best powerforward prospect in the system.

    Ahem. Omark?

  8. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Ahem. Omark?

    Gesundheit!

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Khaira overcame injury earlier in the season and is back and productive with the Silvertips. Khaira can play center or wing, but is getting increased playing time in the middle with Everett. His WHL is an extremely defensive team, so I’m tempted to give him a small break on the lack of offense so far this season.

    The fact that he can play in the middle, and is getting an education in defensive play from Kevin Constantine just adds to the attraction.

    When I was chit-chating with that guy from the Everett newspaper that covers the Tips, he was basically saying they weren’t very good and play a very intensive defensive game. Overall, him and the other Everett fans were pretty impressed with Kharia.

    Benny B. was apparently showing better than they expected, though they had trouble seeing NHL upside.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit: Gesundheit!

    exsqueezeme!

  11. Young Oil says:

    Lowetide: It never works out that way. Here’s December 2007, six made it and that’s a damn good return.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2007/12/oilers-top-20-prospects.html

    I know that it is likely impossible, I am just blindly hoping that we make up for years of draft misses and hit gold after the first round like the sharks did from 2005-2008:

    Vlasic
    Joslin
    Mcginn
    Bonino
    Braun
    McLaren
    Wingels
    Demers

    8 players drafted out of the first round were able to get a season (at least 82 NHL games) of NHL action, albeit not all of them stayed with the Sharks, or are still playing consistently. That’s in 4 years.

    In the past 10 drafts, from 2004-2013, only 3 Oilers drafted out of the first round (Reddox, Petry, and Peckham) have played more than 82 games. I know the previous few drafts are still developing, and thats why I have such high hopes for them. It’s about time the Oilers had some luck in the later rounds.

    I’m just idealizing that we’ll get lucky for once and have 8 players in the previous 4 drafts not drafted in the first round (Pitlick, Marincin, Khaira, Moroz, Chase, Yakimov, Roy, and a wild card) see at least a season of NHL time in their careers. Even if it’s not with the Oilers.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    A couple of minutes in and I’m already in love with this Ivan.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=108659

    If we pull ourselves out of the gutter and pick in the 10-20 range, he’d be a great target.

  13. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide: It never works out that way. Here’s December 2007, six made it and that’s a damn good return.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2007/12/oilers-top-20-prospects.html

    Riley Nash makes 7 maybe

  14. Manitoba Oilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    A couple of minutes in and I’m already in love with this Ivan.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=108659

    If we pull ourselves out of the gutter and pick in the 10-20 range, he’d be a great target.

    Trade Gagner for a 10-20 and
    2overall Ekblad
    10-20 Barbashev
    32 Glodobin

  15. Young Oil says:

    Manitoba Oilers: Trade Gagner for a 10-20 and
    2overall Ekblad
    10-20 Barbashev
    32 Glodobin

    Don’t have 32 cause of Perron trade.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Manitoba Oilers: Trade Gagner for a 10-20 and
    2overall Ekblad
    10-20 Barbashev
    32 Glodobin

    2nd OV: Draisaitl.

    fixed.

  17. Manitoba Oilers says:

    Young Oil,

    Ahh forgot trade for another I guess trade quantity for quality like a 31st -34th for a 3rd and two fourths

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Q-Ruskies: 3-2

    http://www.subwaysuperseries.ca/schedule/show/game/66872

    MOR with no points. -1

    Wish they tracked TOI for these things. I didn’t see MOR much. But there was a lot of special teams and I don’t recall if he was on either.

  19. Manitoba Oilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: 2nd OV: Draisaitl.

    fixed.

    No Ekblad is the pick
    Nurse and Ekblad would be sick

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Manitoba Oilers: No Ekblad is the pick
    Nurse and Ekblad would be sick

    I’m sorry that you have to die now.

  21. Logan91 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Q-Ruskies: 3-2

    http://www.subwaysuperseries.ca/schedule/show/game/66872

    MOR with no points. -1

    Wish they tracked TOI for these things. I didn’t see MOR much. But there was a lot of special teams and I don’t recall if he was on either.

    He was on the P.K

    Did a good job taking away space and putting on pressure.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Logan91: He was on the P.K

    Did a good job taking away space and putting on pressure.

    Thanks for the report. I was watching through dinner, so I had a loose take on the game.

  23. Logan91 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Thanks for the report. I was watching through dinner, so I had a loose take on the game.

    Don’t worry, you didn’t miss much. He was hardly played in the 3rd.

  24. DBO says:

    Let’s hope the Org doesn’t get enamored with our kids that are in the pipeline, because they have a tendency to overvalue our own prospects. Use them to help the current cluster. You stockpile talent so you can deal some away to help fill needs.

    Nuge-Hall-Eberle
    Gagner-Harski-Yak
    Gordon-Perron-Khaira
    Lander-Chase-Pitlick

    That looks fun. But at least 2 years away.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DBO: Gagner-Harski-Yak

    I like bringing Hartikainen back very much.

  26. G Money says:

    Edmonton Oilers reference on HIMYM. A few weeks after Kevin Smith was on Mindy wearing his Oiler coloured jersey.

    Bad at hockey, but at least we’re winning at pop culture!

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    G Money: HIMYM

    ???????????

  28. justDOit says:

    I’m good at initialisms, but bad a tv – I think it’s, How I Met Your Mohammad.

  29. justDOit says:

    Smid being leaned on heavily, late in the Flames game. Just sayin…

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit:
    Smid being leaned on heavily, late in the Flames game. Just sayin…

    I was really pulling for him on that wrap around!

    If this shootout keeps going, I’d love to see him score a shootout goal. That would be hilarious!

  31. Logan91 says:

    G Money:
    Edmonton Oilers reference on HIMYM. A few weeks after Kevin Smith was on Mindy wearing his Oiler coloured jersey.

    Bad at hockey, but at least we’re winning at pop culture!

    Gotta love Kevin Smith, wears his Oilers coloured jersey everywhere he goes.

    Even the rapper “50 Cent” wears Oilers hats.

  32. jp says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    A couple of minutes in and I’m already in love with this Ivan.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=108659

    If we pull ourselves out of the gutter and pick in the 10-20 range, he’d be a great target.

    Damn near the opposite of the last Ivan I remember the Oil drafting (Koltsov).
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=52083
    Those are some nice boxcars from the Barbashev kid. 62 points in the Q last year and 23-11-20-31 this year. And he hasn’t turned 18 yet.

    justDOit:
    Nailed it!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzkuTNxrqAM

    Were he and Larionov’s comments related to the “Cross the Line” campaign?

  33. dangilitis says:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/11/18/on-an-oilers-team-falling-down-andrew-ference-and-nick-schultz-are-playing-strong-d/

    How do you see this being so discrepant from Corsi?

    SC For/Against: Ference, NS, Petry, JS, Smid, Larsen, Belov

    Corsi Rel: Belov, JS, NS, Larsen, Petry, Ference, Smid

    Corsi I remember reading was less reflective for D-men.

    Should we be looking more at scoring chance contributions for and against, as viewed by people who are paying close attention to each legitimate chance in the games?

  34. Logan91 says:

    Whyyyyyy, lord! Why do these threads keep turning into Corsi discussions!?

    LT, when are you going to start doing pieces on possible draft targets and needs for this summers draft?

  35. Lowetide says:

    dangilitis:
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/11/18/on-an-oilers-team-falling-down-andrew-ference-and-nick-schultz-are-playing-strong-d/

    How do you see this being so discrepant from Corsi?

    SC For/Against: Ference, NS, Petry, JS, Smid, Larsen, Belov

    Corsi Rel: Belov, JS, NS, Larsen, Petry, Ference, Smid

    Corsi I remember reading was less reflective for D-men.

    Should we be looking more at scoring chance contributions for and against, as viewed by people who are paying close attention to each legitimate chance in the games?

    David’s system counts chances, and treats puck location as a random act. NOTHING is measured until the puck arrives in your quadrant. If you error, or contribute to it, then you get a minus. ALL OF THE EVENTS BEFORE IT don’t count, just the contribution.

    And on the other hand, you contribute to a good thing and that’s a plus. So, Corsi and David’s system are completely opposite and really can’t be married to each other in a realistic way.

    You either believe the puck’s arrival isn’t important, or you do.

  36. Thinker says:

    Just want to get this down so I can say I told you so later. Bryzgalov should be playing another week int he AHL. He needs more reps before he is nhl ready. He should then get another week to warm up in the bigs. Then he should start in a game we are unlikely to win (dallas or colorado). Instead watch bryz play tomorrow and have a bad game, essentially losing it for the oilers. In an effort to save face, the oil give him another shot, and though he plays better, it is not enough to win, and the fan base is in shambles again. Dubnyk comes back the following game and there is a whole controversy. Worst of all , the oil end up losing their two easiest games for the next month or so. If I’m right, I will use this in my application for the GM position that I will submit to Katz after the olympic break.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Thinker:
    Just want to get this down so I can say I told you so later. Bryzgalov should be playing another week int he AHL. He needs more reps before he is nhl ready. He should then get another week to warm up in the bigs. Then he should start in a game we are unlikely to win (dallas or colorado). Instead watch bryz play tomorrow and have a bad game, essentially losing it for the oilers. In an effort to save face, the oil give him another shot, and though he plays better, it is not enough to win, and the fan base is in shambles again. Dubnyk comes back the following game and there is a whole controversy. Worst of all , the oil end up losing their two easiest games for the next month or so. If I’m right, I will use this in my application for the GM position that I will submit to Katz after the olympic break.

    Dubnyk is in tomorrow. It was reported this morning.

  38. Young Oil says:

    Thinker:
    Just want to get this down so I can say I told you so later. Bryzgalov should be playing another week int he AHL. He needs more reps before he is nhl ready. He should then get another week to warm up in the bigs. Then he should start in a game we are unlikely to win (dallas or colorado). Instead watch bryz play tomorrow and have a bad game, essentially losing it for the oilers. In an effort to save face, the oil give him another shot, and though he plays better, it is not enough to win, and the fan base is in shambles again. Dubnyk comes back the following game and there is a whole controversy. Worst of all , the oil end up losing their two easiest games for the next month or so. If I’m right, I will use this in my application for the GM position that I will submit to Katz after the olympic break.

    The Oilers are actually not playing Bryz tomorrow, and are taking their time the best they can. They likely sent down Labarbera because Bryz counted as a part of the roster regardless of being in the AHL.

    From the TSN website:

    “However, the Oilers are still sticking with plans to start Devan Dubnyk in net against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday.”

    Maybe you should rethink that application.

    Edit: Oops, sorry, LT beat me to it!

  39. Clay says:

    justDOit:
    Smid being leaned on heavily, late in the Flames game. Just sayin…

    TOI for Flaimes Dmen tonight:

    T. Brodie 28:27
    K. Russell 27:42
    D. Wideman 21:46
    C. Butler 20:38
    L. Smid 19:31
    S. O’Brien 6:35

  40. Thinker says:

    Young Oil,

    Long day, missed that announcement. That sucks, I had even picked out a painting for my office at RX2.

  41. stevezie says:

    I think that everything Caramel Obvious said about Staples’ system (mainly that it is subjective and only mentions positive events) is true, but I don’t think that makes it useless.

    To me, what Staples system does is quantifies Staples’ subjective observations. Staples isn’t a “hockey guy”, but I think he more than qualifies as a knowledgeable fan. Rather than hearing a journalist/blogger say “he’s good” or “he stinks”, Staples attaches some numbers to it. That’s useful to me, though just like Corsi, boxcars and my own ignorant opinions it does not paint a complete picture.

    I expect Neilson numbers have the same problems, but are slightly less subjective. They also must be infinitely less time-consuming to put together.

  42. stevezie says:

    Also on USA Today hockey rankings Arcobello is fifth in the Calder Race.

  43. dangilitis says:

    Lowetide,

    For most of the D-men, aren’t most of the events in your quadrant (on either end) the most important? Unless you’re Bobby Orr. In all seriousness, how much of the Oilers’ D zone breakdowns are happening in low risk areas?

    I guess my examples are tha with Corsi, blocking a shot is a strike against you, but it may very well prevent a scoring chance. If you’re Larsen and you let x player walk in, yes that’s a corsi against and a SC against. But if you were his D partner and not to blame for Larsen’s decision to go on a walkabout in the middle of an NHL game, you still get the negative corsi, but not the SC against. And I had read somewhere that defencemen’s corsi’s seem to correlate more with the forwards they play with.

    How can you separate the wheat from the chaff if every D-man is painted with the same brush with Corsi? Someone’s blood needs to be spilled and held accountable! If you are Petry/JS/Smid and playing more minutes 5vs5 than other D-men on a bad team, your Corsi will no doubt be worse than the others as you are experiencing more negative Corsi events by virtue of being on the ice longer. Unless you are a virtuoso and can single-handedly tilt the ice as a D-man. But the SC for and against would shed their performance in a different light, signifying that while the ice continues to be tilted toward the other team’s favour with them playing D, maybe they aren’t as much to blame for the mayhem that is ensuing, e.g. missed forward defensive assignments?

  44. Dominoiler says:

    Those offensive numbers are just a little better than awful, no?!.. 6 goals in 36 games, 2 at evens.. for the first time Im asking myself why we even talk about this player,.. cant believe he left school for the whl..

  45. justDOit says:

    Clay: TOI for Flaimes Dmen tonight:

    T. Brodie 28:27
    K. Russell 27:42
    D. Wideman 21:46
    C. Butler 20:38
    L. Smid 19:31
    S. O’Brien 6:35

    Do you have Smid’s toi for the last part of the 3rd and OT? Because I watched the game.

  46. Lowetide says:

    justDOit: Do you have Smid’s toi for the last part of the 3rd and OT? Because I watched the game.

    Played a helluva lot in the second, but less in the third and then a couple of shifts in extra time.

    http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20132014/TV020311.HTM

    19:31 overall, that’s maybe a hair more than in Edmonton this season.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Played a helluva lot in the second, but less in the third and then a couple of shifts in extra time.

    http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20132014/TV020311.HTM

    19:31 overall, that’s maybe a hair more than in Edmonton this season.

    But did you see him take off late in the game!? He was Smyth-close to getting that wrap-around in… I’ve never pulled for a Flame so much in my life.

  48. G Money says:

    stevezie,

    I think Caramel‘s criticism that Staples’ metrics are useless because they are subjective is nonsense. In the real world, we rely on a ton of highly useful metrics and assessments that are entirely subjective.

    Simple example: movie reviews. 100% subjective, surprisingly useful. Everyone I know has at least one or two critics who they know share similar tastes and so can rely on their reviews. Usually most people also learn the subjective biases of their local reviewers, and can conclude that if e.g. Jay Stone likes a drama, they will too, but if he dislikes an action movie, its going to be awesome.

    Better still, aggregate hundreds of those purely subjective critics movie reviews (and thousands of even more subjective and less knowledgeable user reviews), and suddenly you have RottenTomatoes – easily the most effective movie rating system for a broader range of people than anything else I’ve seen. The two RT numbers (critic % and user %), despite being based on purely subjective data, still tell you an enormously useful amount of information. Just by looking at the type of movie and the absolute value and the difference between those two numbers, I know with virtual certainty whether I will like it or not.

    That’s what Staples’ system ultimately is: an aggregation of a number of subjective conclusions about who is responsible for creating goals and scoring chances for and against that, despite its subjectivity, provides an interesting and useful insight into the team and its players.

    Caramel argues a second point, which is that the decisions about goals and chances are so subjective that Staples’ viewpoint can’t possibly be valid. Again – nonsense. Hockey is not such a complex game that armed with a reasonable amount of knowledge (which Staples has) and a PVR, you can’t effectively use slo mo to break down the vast majority of chances accurately.

    Go look at the two Flames goals from last night – pretty obvious who the culprits were. You might get a handful of different opinions if you ask, but chances are most of them, including Staples’ version, are going to be very very similar.

    Will every single chance or goal breakdown be obvious? No, of course not. There will be complex goals or chances that are very hard to break down, and then you’ll get different opinions depending on who is doing the work. But those are few in number (I know from experience, I’ve gone through the process of breaking down the videos of goals in slow mo to try much the same exercise as the Neilsen numbers), and over the course of multiple goals and multiple games, those differences are going to cancel out to some extent, and those that don’t cancel out are going to be “noise” in the big picture, and are not going to invalidate the aggregated numbers.

    Staples and his crew also take some pains to enhance this effect by using multiple reviewers, which not only reduces this error/noise factor, but as I recall, they’ve even used multiple independent reviewers on the same game and used that to sanity check the results they were getting.

    The bottom line is that it is a subjective metric which over multiple games and multiple reviewers, aggregates into a less subjective metric, and one which provides additional insight into the game, and is a valuable complement to boxcars, Corsis, etc. I for one am certainly appreciative of the effort Staples and his guys put into generating these numbers*.

    * Note: I am in no way associated with the process. Just an appreciative stats guy.

  49. G Money says:

    Ha, I just noticed there were posts in the previous thread, and went and read through DeadMan‘s massive thesis.

    In a couple of his many paragraphs, he fundamentally makes the same point I did with my massive post (about the value of estimates and subjective conclusions), but does so by referencing Fermi problems and evolution. Of course! Damn it, why didn’t I think of that!

  50. Hammers says:

    thinking about your top players list and others that are done and I’m starting to think they may be a waste of time .Most of the players other than 1st rd picks don’t seem to last in the AHL let alone NHL.I am speaking about the Oilers here not the whole league . It makes me think that the Penner type deals should be done more often . Typically your going after an RFA who has proven his worth and give up a 1st ; 2nd & 3rd or less . Does anyone see a good reason why this isn’t done that often . I know we don’t have a 2nd but the point I’m making is it’s there in the rules but hardly ever used .Of your #5′s above Cogs made it , Peckham borderline leaving Marincin for the last 9 years . Much the same with #2 picks onwards. Really Disapointing .

  51. justDOit says:

    G Money,

    I wonder how teams in the long-ago figured out how to build a winner, without advanced stats and shot plots?

  52. justDOit says:

    Not sure if this will be missed, but a very appropriate Oilers gif, representative of the post ’06 teams.

    http://i.imgur.com/ba0DCBq.gif

  53. Benhur says:

    Probably over-rated at #5. He hasn’t accompished anything yet! Not even a professional yet…give him a few years before ranking him anywhere near the top. It’s all pie in the sky and I’ve seen to many of your pink glasses rankings not come close!

  54. godot10 says:

    stevezie:
    Also on USA Today hockey rankings Arcobello is fifth in the Calder Race.

    Eakins thinks Acton is better, and helps him win more, apparently. 4 minutes of Willy Acton is better than Marc Arcobello.

  55. G Money says:

    justDOit:
    G Money,

    I wonder how teams in the long-ago figured out how to build a winner, without advanced stats and shot plots?

    Not sure if you asked this facetiously or not, but its actually a valid question that deserves an answer.

    Which is: the fundamentals of hockey have not changed. Get good players – preferably better than the other guys. Coach those players well – preferably better than the other guys. Then let them play.

    This is much like the fundamentals of business, which have also not changed: find a customer need, and fill that need, preferably better than the other guys.

    In each case, though, tools have come along that can give you an edge in competition.

    Thirty years ago, investing in computing technology provided an edge in business to those that did it well. Today, computing technology is commonplace. Indeed (speaking as a businessman), the operating structures of today’s companies are radically different as a result – global supply chains, offshore product teams, JIT manufacturing … you wonder how you ever ran a business without these tools, and in fact, you would be at a severe disadvantage competing without them.

    Advanced stats in hockey, while not game-changing or revolutionary like computing technology, do at least have a passing similarity. Maybe stats can be likened more to a smartphone. They are a tool that can provide a team an edge today, and I suspect ten years from now when the “technology” has matured, any old-fashioned team that refuses to use them will be at a disadvantage in competing with those that do.

  56. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    This is one time I’m not arguing at all. Not playing Arcobello is insanity.

  57. Caramel Obvious says:

    G Money,

    For the record my larger point was not that Staples’ work was subjective though I can see why it looks like it is.

    One of the points that I was trying to make was made by lowetide above, better than I did. The problem isn’t simply the subjectivity of the interpreter but the nodal point around which the interpretation occurs. By focusing on scoring chances you omit all the scoring chances that could have happened but didn’t. That’s a systematic bias not a subjective one.

    For instance in the systems analysts that Bourne did he highlights Brunner making a mistake on the neutral zone pressure. This happens way before the scoring chance. Perhaps Staples, or whomever notices the error, in which case the problem of subjectivity has been avoided. However, if a scoring chance never occurs because someone else makes a good play the error is never going to be recorded in the first place. Likewise, because the scoring chance never occurs the good play is also not recorded. This is not a problem of subjectivity. It’s just a problem.

    So if you want to call it an estimate fine. But it is an estimate that is being expressed in the decimal points of errors per game. Considering the number of things that are ruled out in advance by the methodology this gives the impression of certainty where there shouldn’t be.

  58. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious: This is not a problem of subjectivity. It’s just a problem.

    So if you want to call it an estimate fine. But it is an estimate that is being expressed in the decimal points of errors per game. Considering the number of things that are ruled out in advance by the methodology this gives the impression of certainty where there shouldn’t be.

    What you’re saying is correct – the numbers generated by Staples do not provide a complete or perfectly correct picture.

    Sure. But what does? You cannot look at any metric, or even a bunch of them, and believe you got a complete or correct picture of what happened.

    The point is, if you take the time to watch the games, then make the time and effort to look at a variety of measures associated with those games, you will come away with a better understanding than if you only used one of those two approaches. And in that respect, I believe the work done by Staples and his crew is a useful part of that blend. Not complete. Not objective. But useful, and therefore valuable.

    As an aside – I remain convinced that many posters (moreso on ON than here) take NEITHER approach.

  59. Caramel Obvious says:

    G Money,

    But what conclusions can you draw from the data? Staples and company have Ference at +.6 chances/15 minutes and Belov at -.6 chances. So the difference of a chance a game . What conclusion do you draw from this information?

  60. 719 says:

    If his defence is as bad as indicated, I am glad he is getting time with Constantine.

    I am really pulling for this guy, Moroz and Platzer.

    I hope they all get three years in the AHL and one-two years on the 4th line. But Oilers…

  61. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    G Money,

    But what conclusions can you draw from the data? Staples and company have Ference at +.6 chances/15 minutes and Belov at -.6 chances.So the difference of a chance a game .What conclusion do you draw from this information?

    Add that to the CF% of 44.5% for Ference and 46.5% for Belov (which is another flawed statistic, and for defenseman even moreso, but weighted with the appropriate grain of salt), and my conclusion is that Ference (who’s generally taking a lot of shit) is probably taking more heat for his play than he should and Belov (who’s generally getting more compliments than criticisms) is not doing as well as commentary would suggest.

    This is an “unsurprising surprising” result in that defenseman in hockey (like the O line in football), usually get the most scrutiny when they screw up, and I conclude that the (mostly mild) disconnect between the stats and what people feel is the case is in large part because there are an awful lot of eyes on Ference.

    Rolling in some simple boxcars (Ference with 1 pt and 54 hits, Belov with 2 pts and 30 hits) and I conclude – much as I did with Horcoff – that the commentary in general is probably also coloured by contract and expectations.

    In other words, when I add observation with boxcars with Staples with Corsi, I conclude that Ference and Belov are both performing at about the same level, with one providing about as much physical contribution as was expected, the other one not providing the offensive contribution that was arguably hoped for.

    That’s a more nuanced (and I would say to you probably closer to reality) conclusion than the more common “Man that Ference sucks” and “Boy that Belov is looking good” narrative that seems to dominate the electrical waves.

  62. stevezie says:

    G Money,

    Exactly. This is why you get an avatar.

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