#9 PROSPECT: MARTIN GERNAT

If you’ve ever wondered how good hockey prospects get lost in the crowd, we’re about to see it. This is the exact spot where Houston lost a generation of first basemen 40 years ago (John Mayberry, Cliff Johnson, Mike Easler, others) and there’s every chance the Oilers are going to make a mistake on an early decision.

PREVIOUSLY NUMBER NINE ON THE WINTER LIST

  • December 2004: G Devan Dubnyk (157)
  • December 2005: L Tony Salmelainen (70)
  • December 2006: D Jozef Hrabal (0)
  • December 2007: G Devan Dubnyk (157)
  • December 2008: D Cody Wild (0)
  • December 2009: L Teemu Hartikainen (52)
  • December 2010: C Anton Lander (68)
  • December 2011: R Tyler Pitlick (3)
  • December 2012: R Tyler Pitlick (3)

The only real player to come from this far back is Dubnyk, and as a first rounder if he was ranked #9 (twice) during a less than stellar era that’s not a good reflection on the player. Salmelainen was last generation’s Omark (Omark is a better player, but Salmelainen had some nice things too) and I still hold out hope for Harski and Lander but MacT has no attachment and Roman Horak might be better than both of them.

WHAT THEY SAID ON DRAFT DAY

gernat9

  • Stu MacGregor told us the scouts had Martin Gernat inside their top 35.
  • Redline scout Radim Jelinek: Gernat is a smooth skater with fluid stride and decent footwork for his size. Has very good vision and hands, moves the puck well, handles the puck with confidence making solid decision with puck. Likes to join the rush regularly and shows good instinct in sliding from the point into scoring positions. Just started developing physical play in his game, still very inconsistent using his body, needs to play aggressive, physical game all the time. When he uses it then he is tough to beat 1 on 1, angles forwards to the outside, tights forward up at the boards, hits hard. Lacks strength right now and still growing but has frame to fill it out. D-zone coverage is still very average, needs to read the play better defensively, improve positional play and play much tighter game. Very raw but I like his progress throughout the season and see some similar things in his game as in Martin Marincin’s. He is far from him as Marincin was first rounder in my eyes while Gernat is later-round pick but upside is there.
  • Kirk Luedeke: Slovakia’s best defender has excellent size (6-5) and good mobility for such a big kid. He’s fluid in his movements and still a little gangly, but had a couple of memorable plays where he jumped in from the point to get a good shot off, but was denied by Gibson. He was burned on a couple of missed coverages, but overall, was one of Slovakia’s better players in a thrashing. Lack of physical play and strength is his biggest shortcoming right now, but he has the kind of projectable upside that makes him a solid sleeper for the 2011 draft.

POINTS BY DISCIPLINE, MARTIN GERNAT

PLAYER EV PP PK TOTAL
GERNAT 2011-12 WHL 60, 7-25-32 60, 2-20-22 60, 0-1-1 60, 9-46-55
GERNAT 2012-13 WHL 23, 1-5-6 20, 2-5-7 20, 0-0-0 23, 3-10-13
GERNAT 2013-14 AHL 8, 0-3-3 8, 0-0-0 8, 0-0-0 8, 0-3-3

That Oil King season was a beauty. I saw him good several times and if he can get back there Gernat will scoot right up this list again. The problem now is opportunity—he may not get much of one this season and NEXT year could see Darnell Nurse and Dillon Simpson added to the pro group that includes Klefbom, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson and Musil (plus anyone I’ve forgotten). If you’re Martin Gernat, there’s plenty of time, but if an organization comes knocking and is looking for a throw-in? He could be it, and there’s evidence he’s significantly more than an extra.

His pro debut (in terms of boxcars) has been excellent. He’s getting even-strength points and he’s not on the powerplay—yet.

PREVIOUS TOP 20 RANKING

  • Summer 2011: 19
  • Winter 2011: 7
  • Summer 2012: 5
  • Winter 2012: 6
  • Summer 2013: 5
  • Winter 2013: 9

Gernat got passed this winter by a mid-20′s KHL defenseman (Belov), 2 teenaged giants who may one day be NHL center’s (Khaira and Yakimov) and Dillon Simpson (who was drafted exactly one round in front of him). There’s no sin in any of that, but it’s also true a lot of his skills are duplicated and Gernat’s competition is closer to NHL ready. It’s not an ideal spot for him as an Oiler prospect, but he has all kinds of natural skill and no doubt has value now—which should increase as he plays more pro hockey.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING THIS SEASON

  • Abbotsford vs. OKC Barons 10-19-13Jonathan Willis: Martin Gernat’s been playing mostly third-pairing minutes (when he plays) and he’s been okay. His talent is obvious, much as it was with Marincin a year ago; he’s big and fast and gifted with the puck. With that said, he’s also a chaotic defender – again, it’s difficult not to compare him to Marincin as a rookie pro – and he’s only really shown himself ready for the minutes he’s been given, no more.
  • Bruce McCurdy: Gernat has the wingspan of a condor. His size and reach are major plusses, even as it will likely take him a while yet to grow into his gangly frame. At 6’5 he doesn’t fit the mould of an offensive defenceman, but that is Gernat’s primary strength. By eye he’s a creative player with an excellent first pass, good wheels, and strong powerplay skills. On the defensive side of the puck, he’s a work in progress who has made solid strides over the past two years, but will still need plenty of refinement before he’s close to being NHL-ready.

ETA GERNAT

He’s raw, he’s talented and he’s blocked by at least a couple prospects. Gernat’s a talented puck mover, but Nurse, Klefbom and Marincin are clearly ahead of him and I do believe Simpson has passed him. Gernat could be the most talented offensive player in the group, and if he is that’ll help him move up the depth chart, but on the list of mobile youngsters who can play defense and move the puck the talented Gernat is behind Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin and Simpson in my view.

That one WHL season—the impressive EV and PP numbers—gives us a hint of what might be possible. If that player emerges at the pro level, the Oilers will have a watershed of blue with every chance one of them slips through the cracks.

(all Barons photos by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved)

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52 Responses to "#9 PROSPECT: MARTIN GERNAT"

  1. Woodguy says:

    The fact that a guy drafted #122 in the 5th round and has value 2.5 years after being drafted is a good thing.

    We’ve been staring at the Oiler D depth past the NHL level and waiting for someone to use at least one of those bullets in unicorn 3-1 trade.

    LT,

    Do you do Oilers 1st 2014, N.Shultz and Gernat for Erhoff?

    Does BUF?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: HL level and waiting for someone to use at least one of those bullets in unicorn 3-1 trade.

    LT,

    Do you do Oilers 1st 2014, N.Shultz and Gernat for E

    I think that’s an overpay, but in all honesty it’s probably going to take one to acquire someone who can step in and play at a high level. I’d prefer to wait for Phaneuf to go UFA, but there’s no guarantee he’ll make it to free agency, and certainly none he’d sign here.

    At this point, I’d be very tempted. Buffalo does that deal in a heart beat imo.

  3. Andy P says:

    What don’t we know about Erhoff that had him traded from San Jose to Vancouver to Buffalo and apparently due to go elsewhere now? Given that SJ let him go to get Heatley, still, he was the one they decided to let go, and at VCR he was after his big payday after his cup run, why would Buffalo trade him if he is that good?

    Also I know MacT is targeting people in their mid 20′s. (Except Ference, and we have all heard the moaning around that one) Why now a D who is 31 on the back side of his career?

  4. Woodguy says:

    Andy P:
    What don’t we know about Erhoff that had him traded from San Jose to Vancouver to Buffalo and apparently due to go elsewhere now? Given that SJ let him go to get Heatley, still, he was the one they decided to let go, and at VCR he was after his big payday after his cup run, why would Buffalo trade him if he is that good?

    Also I know MacT is targeting people in their mid 20′s. (Except Ference, and we have all heard the moaning around that one) Why now a D who is 31 on the back side of his career?

    What don’t we know about Erhoff that had him traded from San Jose to Vancouver to Buffalo and apparently due to go elsewhere now?

    He wasn’t traded to BUF, he signed there as a FA and to a huge deal that was heavily front loaded. Lots of teams were after him, but no one could match BUF’s offer.

    As for the SJS to VAN thing, from the outside it looks like they did it to free up $.

    He was traded in summer of 2009 and SJS Dmen TOI/gm leaders were:

    Vlasic
    Boyle
    Ehrhoff
    Blake
    Murray
    Lukowich

    Lukowich was traded with Ehrhoff.

    The SJS Dmen TOI/gm the year after was:

    Boyle
    Vlasic
    Murray
    Blake
    Huskins
    Wallin/Leach

    SJS signed Murray to $2.5MM/yr that summer and probably traded Ehrhoff to free up some $.

    The next year in VAN here’s the Dmen TOI/gm

    Mitchell
    Ehrhoff
    Edler
    Bieksa
    O’Brien
    Salo

    So he went to a very good VAN team and went straight to their 1st pairing.

    His possession numbers in BUF have been good even though the team has been shit.

    He plays the toughest minutes, comes out near even and everyone’s possession stats are better with him than without, even though when they play with him, they are probably playing tougher comp than without.

    He’s a true 1LD and based on his contract will probably play 4 more years in the NHL which fits the Oilers needs almost perfectly.

    why would Buffalo trade him if he is that good?

    Looks like BUF is going full blow up re-build (although the new GM might alter that a little)

    Turning you best assets into good future assets is the model.

    They aren’t going to compete for at least 3 years for a playoff spot based on their roster and depth, so why waste Ehrhoff’s contract and get nothing for it when you could get up to 3 good building blocks for it?

    Oiler’s first has big value
    N.Shultz fills the hole on the roster and they probably turn him into a 2nd at the deadline (more if they are trading with NHL GM of the Year)
    Gernat – up and coming young player who has passed his draft ranking in terms of development.

    That’s a nice return.

  5. dawgtoy says:

    Woodguy,

    WG, I’d make that trade right now.

  6. Woodguy says:

    I looks like Doug Wilson bet on Murray as opposed to Ehrhoff, or liked what he could get for Ehrhoff as opposed to Murray. (Patrick White was a 1st rounder)

    Maybe he wanted a big tough Dman as Blake was aging?

    Either way I bet if you ask Wilson if he could do it again, he’d keep Ehrhoff over Murray.

    Not all bets work out.

  7. Andy P says:

    Woodguy,

    Thank you.

  8. PerryK says:

    Re: the trade proposal with Buffalo, I am of the opinion that it may take Marincin instead of Gernat to do that deal. I would want some thing added (like their 3rd) but be prepared to do it.

    In many ways, I think that Gernat has better overall talent than Marincin, who is clearly ready to play on an NHL team now. I think that Marincin blocks Gernat more than any other upcoming prospect.

    LT, I am certain that you have better information than I but where is all this love for Simpson coming from? The numbers and the narrative don’t get me near as excited. Now if we could have got Lowe’s kid instead of Simpson’s kid, I could get excited.

  9. Lowetide says:

    PerryK:
    Re: the trade proposal with Buffalo, I am of the opinion that it may take Marincin instead of Gernat to do that deal.I would want some thing added (like their 3rd) but be prepared to do it.

    In many ways, I think that Gernat has better overall talent than Marincin, who is clearly ready to play on an NHL team now.I think that Marincin blocks Gernat more than any other upcoming prospect.

    LT, I am certain that you have better information than I but where is all this love for Simpson coming from?The numbers and the narrative don’t get me near as excited.Now if we could have got Lowe’s kid instead of Simpson’s kid, I could get excited.

    His progression has been outstanding. He went from fringe player in year one to top pairing and then 1PP and then captain during his career there. I don’t think those things were expected, and the things I have been told by scouts (exceptional decision making, very good lateral movement, calm feet) are backed up by more recent scouting reports.

    His NHLE projects around 20 points a season, he plays in the toughest NCAA division and he has a wide range of skills. We never know about the college kids until they arrive (see Jeff Petry, Cody Wild and Taylor Chorney) but the resume talks about defensive ability, footspeed, intelligence and offense.

    That’s a nice group of skills.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I still hold out hope for Harski and Lander

    I mentioned this once before, but I feel like if a player ducks out for another elite pro league (KHL, SHL) for non-performance issues (wants $$ now, homesick, more TOI, no more toiling in the minors) and has a strong career, then that shouldn’t reflect poorly on either the scouts who recognized talent or the player’s own talent in these kinds of lists.

    Lowetide: The problem now is opportunity—he may not get much of one this season and NEXT year could see Darnell Nurse and Dillon Simpson added to the pro group that includes Klefbom, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson and Musil (plus anyone I’ve forgotten).

    This is where MacT needs to flex his muscles and follow through on his promise to be more active regarding the farms.

    He needs to make a decision on Grebs. If he thinks he can help the big team this year still, then keep playing him and send Gernat and Musil to Bakersfield. If he would rather give those call up spots to the kids, then he needs to offer Grebs an unconditional buyout.

    Gernat and Musil need TOI more than anything right now. Platooning and limited TOI aren’t going to help. By all means shelter them as they develop, but they still need to play and a lot.

    Hunt is another one. I’d re-think whether he has long-term NHL potential and if not look to make an AHL trade for a F or a G.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Here’s an example of the kind of things you read online about Dillon simpson

    http://www.uscho.com/nchc-blog/2013/11/11/simpsons-gutsy-play-inspires-as/

  12. Bar_Qu says:

    Is the value of Gernat to this organization dimmed if he is part of a trade piece and goes on to play a reasonable career elsewhere? I think that is valuable asset procurement too.

    I would love if he stayed with the Oil and had to fight his way onto the roster out of the AHL, taking 3 or more years to do it with occasional call ups. This would also be good asset management, in stark contrast to the way things have been done the last 8 years or so.

    But, it comes back to the question of what makes a draft pick successful-playing a lot for the team that drafted you, or playing a reasonable length of career? (the 200 game benchmark)

    The descriptions of Ehrhoff make him seem a good target for acquisition, even if it means giving up some future potential in a player like Gernat. But Gernat cetainly does seem like a player worth waiting for.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Is the value of Gernat to this organization dimmed if he is part of a trade piece and goes on to play a reasonable career elsewhere? I think that is valuable asset procurement too.

    I would love if he stayed with the Oil and had to fight his way onto the roster out of the AHL, taking 3 or more years to do it with occasional call ups. This would also be good asset management, in stark contrast to the way things have been done the last 8 years or so.

    But, it comes back to the question of what makes a draft pick successful-playing a lot for the team that drafted you, or playing a reasonable length of career? (the 200 game benchmark)

    The descriptions of Ehrhoff make him seem a good target for acquisition, even if it means giving up some future potential in a player like Gernat. But Gernat cetainly does seem like a player worth waiting for.

    In a perfect world, he plays three full seasons in the AHL and then the club finds room. The problem Edmonton has right now is they have too many blue and not enough forwards in the AHL, and the exact opposite problem (well you know what I mean) in the NHL.

    They need to turn two of these kid defenseman and a pick into an actual NHL player.

  14. Thinker says:

    I’m interested in bringing back haritkainen for next season. He has really done well in the khl and when we last saw him in the ahl, he was very close to being nhl ready. Last season was bad, but it was more than likely a product of small sample size and playing in the belanger triangle. There’s room in the bottom six for all of lander, horak, and hartikainen, especially if you move one of the centers over. It’s finally time to let the draft picks enter the bottom six. I would make next year look like this
    Hall RNH Eberle
    Perron Gagner Yakupov
    arcobello Gordon Hemsky
    Joensuu Lander Hartikainen
    Gazdic (stupid old boys need them some fights)

    I expect smith to retire, and that several vets like jones will be offloaded at the trade deadline. Arcobello is a tricky case, but I don’t think you can get enough value for him to make a trade worthwhile. This is also assuming the oil draft a dman. If MacT wants a centre, gagner has to sail on, no two ways about it. Personally I flip garner for a top 4 d, someone in the petry range at the deadline, then I give arco choice minutes and flip him at the draft.

  15. LMHF#1 says:

    Martin Gernat – future third line winger and powerplay specialist. He’s too offensively talented to forego the possibility if you can’t fit him on the blue line.

  16. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    Martin Gernat – future third line winger and powerplay specialist. He’s too offensively talented to forego the possibility if you can’t fit him on the blue line.

    It was one of my favorite things about Oil Kings game, this kid can wheel!

  17. Woodguy says:

    So Lander has 12pts in 14 games.

    I guess playing with Omark helps.

    Both Lander and Horak are scoring in the AHL at rates that are roughly triple Acton’s best years.

    How long does Acton last?

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Thinker: I expect smith to retire

    Dan, Doug, Jeff, Jason or Steve?

    I’m pretty sure they’ve all already retired.

    :)

  19. sliderule says:

    The oil have three defenceman in Nurse Marcinin and Gernat who are rakes.

    They all look to have the skill to play in nhl and the player to put on twenty or thirty pounds of muscle will be the first to arrive.

  20. Lois Lowe says:

    Woodguy,

    Until the coach decides that he no longer wants “heavy” minutes or MacT leaves him no choice.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    So Lander has 12pts in 14 games.

    I guess playing with Omark helps.

    Both Lander and Horak are scoring in the AHL at rates that are roughly triple Acton’s best years.

    How long does Acton last?

    I’ve been looking at that, and I think the answer is unknown. Acton’s offense is so poor he shouldn’t be in the NHL, but there he be.

  22. gcw_rocks says:

    If MacT it’s looking for some goaltending he should be looking at zero Andersen from the ducks. Could spend some of that defensive prospect depth on him. Andersen’s career save percentage is good, regardless of level, including the NHL level this year.

  23. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: I’ve been looking at that, and I think the answer is unknown. Acton’s offense is so poor he shouldn’t be in the NHL, but there he be.

    There are lots of us saying Acton should go down . Question ? was part of the deal with Acton / Coach that his son was given a year to make it ??? NAH McT wouldn’t agree to that but maybe Eakins would . If we look to after trade deadline I see 1st) RNH /Hall/Ebs 2nd) Arco /Yak/Gags (rw) 3rd) Gordon /Smyth/Perron last 5) Horak/Gazdic /Joensuu / Lander/Pitlick . Love Hemsky but he will be traded unless he agrees to a $ 3 mill deal X3 . Also see Jones , N.Schultz & Potter traded. Fedun & Klefbom up.

  24. nycoil says:

    The future on the blue is bright. Would be great to have a 2016-2017 depth chart at the NHL level of Nurse, Klefbom, Schultz, Petry, Marincin, Gernat, Simpson, Musil, Fedun and you make some decisions then to trade a couple of those pieces for key pieces up front that we’re lacking in order to form the last components of a championship club.

    Think we need to see who can bring it the most at the NHL level ( a little bit like the way Nurse played better at main camp than the prospects tourney) and keep them and maximize the return on our NHL-ready young blue. They will fetch a lot more then than now, when they might end up being a throw-in on a 3-for-1 we regret for the next decade.

    Don’t get me wrong, I am all for a 3-for-1 but if we are giving up our 1st plus one of our young blue, I think we are taking too high of a risk. The time for bold was this past summer, and might be again this summer, but this is now time for keeping your cards close to your chest and letting a few other teams get desperate. We know of the fire sales in Buffalo and potentially Florida. Columbus may be looking to move some of their blue after another lost season there. And the Islanders, lordy, they gave up their 1st and 2nd to go for it and have a deuce-seven pocket to show for it. At this point, they can’t switch to being sellers, Snow’s gotta go all in? Wonder if we could have pried a Strome for Smid. They need help on the blue.

  25. Woodguy says:

    gcw_rocks:
    If MacT it’s looking for some goaltending he should be looking at zero Andersen from the ducks. Could spend some of that defensive prospect depth on him.Andersen’s career save percentage is good, regardless of level, including the NHL level this year.

    Anaheim is keeping Andersen and are going to let Hillier walk.

  26. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    So Lander has 12pts in 14 games.

    I guess playing with Omark helps.

    Both Lander and Horak are scoring in the AHL at rates that are roughly triple Acton’s best years.

    How long does Acton last?

    This.

    JJ-Horak/Lander-Pitlick would be a decent 4th line me thinks.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I’ve been looking at that, and I think the answer is unknown. Acton’s offense is so poor he shouldn’t be in the NHL, but there he be.

    He’s like a bad smell that needs to go away.

  28. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: This.

    JJ-Horak/Lander-Pitlick would be a decent 4th line me thinks.

    That’s exactly the kind of 4th line the Oilers need.

    Young guys who don’t bleed too bad trying like to work their way up the roster.

    Sub in the fighter when the coach feels like its needed.

    Loved Pitlick this year.

    He has the worst injury luck.

  29. VanOil says:

    I would include Marincin in WGs trade scenario for Ehrhoff rather than Gernat. Marincin is the better prospect at the moment because he has progressed further along the development cure. As we all know Oilers however need NHL defensemen not prospects.

    The reason I would include him is because I feel Marincins path to the NHL is currently more blocked than Gernats. Kelfbom, Nurse and possibly Simpson will be challenging Marincin for NHL employment over the next 2 years. (with Fedun possibly securing a role as a #7 this spring). Not even the Oilers are bat shit crazy enough to have that many rookie Dmen on the roster at the same time (I would not put money on that though). Following this logic Gernat being 3 plus years away would actually help his chances versus Marincin.

    Either way I am on board for a Pick+N.Schultz+Prospect for Ehrhoff trade. He has 3 to 4 years of being a true top pairing D man left in him at a great cap hit. He is not a CFP best in the game type but he is way better than any defenseman Oilers have had in years.

  30. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide: I think that’s an overpay, but in all honesty it’s probably going to take one to acquire someone who can step in and play at a high level. I’d prefer to wait for Phaneuf to go UFA, but there’s no guarantee he’ll make it to free agency, and certainly none he’d sign here.

    At this point, I’d be very tempted. Buffalo does that deal in a heart beat imo.

    I think you are underselling Ehrhoff here. He’s better than Phaneuf as a player and his contract is miles better. Ehrhoff is the solution to a problem. Phaneuf is a partial solution to a problem whose contract will create other problems.

    I also think there is no chance Buffalo makes that deal. None. Frankly, it is a terrible deal for them. The only way they make that deal is if they make a terrible decision.

    Ehrhoff is Buffalo’s best player with a great cap hit. The only bad thing about Ehrhoff is the length of the contract. However, for Buffalo that’s actually a relative plus since if he retires they get smashed with the cap penalty. So no matter what Buffalo is screwed with the length of the deal so they might as well keep him.

    So that might be a decent opening offer but the challenging intellectual exercise is to determine what is the maximum you’d pay for Ehrhoff?

    I think the line is something like #1 + Klefbom. That’s the kind of deal it would take for Buffalo to make the deal. Is that good for Edmonton? I don’t know. But anything less than that is a great deal for the Oilers.

  31. VanOil says:

    Woodguy: He’s like a bad smell that needs to go away.

    Febreze? Bleach? or my personal preference FIRE?

  32. VanOil says:

    Pouzar: This.

    JJ-Horak/Lander-Pitlick would be a decent 4th line me thinks.

    Agreed, I would even use Jones as a place holder on this line until Pitlick is up to speed again. This could happen right now but sadly won’t.

  33. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Obvious: I think you are underselling Ehrhoff here.He’s better than Phaneuf as a player and his contract is miles better.Ehrhoff is the solution to a problem.Phaneuf is a partial solution to a problem whose contract will create other problems.

    I also think there is no chance Buffalo makes that deal.None.Frankly, it is a terrible deal for them.The only way they make that deal is if they make a terrible decision.

    Ehrhoff is Buffalo’s best player with a great cap hit.The only bad thing about Ehrhoff is the length of the contract.However, for Buffalo that’s actually a relative plus since if he retires they get smashed with the cap penalty.So no matter what Buffalo is screwed with the length of the deal so they might as well keep him.

    So that might be a decent opening offer but the challenging intellectual exercise is to determine what is themaximum you’d pay for Ehrhoff?

    I think the line is something like #1 + Klefbom.That’s the kind of deal it would take for Buffalo to make the deal.Is that good for Edmonton? I don’t know.But anything less than that is a great deal for the Oilers.

    That first round pick is insane value.

  34. 106 and 106 says:

    I smell a Musil roundin’ out the top 10! Young depth on D is a wonderful asset (to trade!).

  35. justDOit says:

    VanOil: Febreze? Bleach? or my personal preference FIRE?

    I think you’ve got to flush something like that away.

  36. TheOtherJohn says:

    Pouzar/WG

    “JJ-Horak/Lander-Pitlick would be a decent 4th line me thinks.

    That’s exactly the kind of 4th line the Oilers need”

    All 3 are 22 years old and have scored the following points in the AHL regular season:

    Pitlick 36 pts in 113 games
    Horak 46 pts in 92 games
    Lander 37 pts in 75 games

    To the extent that MacT’s origainal comment about bottom 6 players still holds, I do not see this trio adding much to the 4th line. Better skill than face punchers but definitely not ripping it up at the AHL level. Albeit Lander is having a nice run as we speak

    If we traded for Ehrhoff it would make every one of our D better because they would slide down a slot and play easier opponents. Nic Schultz included in a trade might actually be a negative.

  37. VanOil says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    I follow your logic on why Buffalo should not trade Ehrhoff and agree he is a better player than Phaneuf on a better contract and has a game more suited to the Oilers current defensive strategy.

    For all that I am more hopeful than you that he is available as the arguments you are making are very similar to why it made no sense for TB to buyout Lecavalier, plus the community pillar thing. GMs on both good and bad teams make puzzling decision hopefully the Oilers can win one of those for a change.

    I have not seen Kelfbom enough to evaluate if I would give him up in this trade. If we had not just lost Smids strength clearing the front of the net I would say yes.

  38. Logan91 says:

    For all the number guys in here, using numbers and all that jazz, exactly how much better is Ehrhoff than Phaneuf?

  39. Pouzar says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Pouzar/WG

    “JJ-Horak/Lander-Pitlick would be a decent 4th line me thinks.

    That’s exactly the kind of 4th line the Oilers need”

    All 3 are 22 years old and have scored the following points in the AHL regular season:

    Pitlick 36 pts in 113 games
    Horak 46 pts in 92 games
    Lander 37 pts in 75 games

    To the extent that MacT’s origainal comment about bottom 6 players still holds, I do not see this trio adding much to the 4th line. Better skill than face punchers but definitely not ripping it up at the AHL level. Albeit Lander is having a nice run as we speak

    If we traded for Ehrhoff it would make every one of our D better because they would slide down a slot and play easier opponents. Nic Schultz included in a trademight actually be a negative.

    While I see your point I think that line is decent placeholder THIS year (Pitlick injury notwithstanding) while the next wave of big forwards gets it’s feet wet. Also, gotta think MacT
    is going to sign another “pro” along the lines of a Boyd Gordon ( Moss???) to play on the 4th line next year.

  40. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: That first round pick is insane value.

    That’s why to get Ehrhoff you need to let Petry & player from Okl another “D” or a Pitlick type . If you want Ehrhoff and he has no trade I’m not sure he will come as when he left Van it was to go east +$$$$ . I would still talk to Columbus re Tyutin as you may get him for a #1 plus say Pitlick or Lander .

  41. Woodguy says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Pouzar/WG

    “JJ-Horak/Lander-Pitlick would be a decent 4th line me thinks.

    That’s exactly the kind of 4th line the Oilers need”

    All 3 are 22 years old and have scored the following points in the AHL regular season:

    Pitlick 36 pts in 113 games
    Horak 46 pts in 92 games
    Lander 37 pts in 75 games

    To the extent that MacT’s origainal comment about bottom 6 players still holds, I do not see this trio adding much to the 4th line. Better skill than face punchers but definitely not ripping it up at the AHL level. Albeit Lander is having a nice run as we speak

    If we traded for Ehrhoff it would make every one of our D better because they would slide down a slot and play easier opponents. Nic Schultz included in a trademight actually be a negative.

    John,

    You need to look at their scoring rates lately (last 12 months or so)

    Learning curve in pro hockey is steep.

    A very extreme example is pointing at Thorton’s first three years and calling him a .497pt/gm player while ignoring that the pts/gm were going up.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Logan91:
    For all the number guys in here, using numbers and all that jazz, exactly how much better is Ehrhoff than Phaneuf?

    They’re probably fairly close.

    Phaneuf will be a UFA and probably get $7MM+/yr

    Erhoff is locked in at a $4MM/yr cap hit and that is beyond valuable for a team that will spend to the cap.

    $3MM can buy nice things if spent properly.

  43. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide: That first round pick is insane value.

    Is it? The pick is going to be somewhere in the 5-15 range of an average to below average draft. I don’t think that’s insane value. I think it is somewhere between nothing and above average regular. The odds of that player ever being as good as Ehrhoff are significantly less than half and that’s without calculation the cost of development time.

    Money has a time value. So do players.

  44. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Obvious: Is it?The pick is going to be somewhere in the 5-15 range of an average to below average draft.I don’t think that’s insane value.I think it is somewhere between nothing and above average regular.The odds of that player ever being as good as Ehrhoff are significantly less than half and that’s without calculation the cost of development time.

    Money has a time value.So do players.

    Where do you get the 5-15 range? Just wondering. I’d say 2-10 is more like it, but haven’t really looked beyond the standings. Even with a better defenseman this team isn’t going to be winning 10 in a row any time soon.

    If the pick doesn’t have insane value, I keep it. Because it’s a lottery pick, and maybe it’s that Draisatl kid and maybe he’s an impact player. The Oilers already have several, but for me Ehrhoff isn’t worth MORE than the chance to grab one of those two or three impact kids.

  45. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide: Where do you get the 5-15 range? Just wondering. I’d say 2-10 is more like it, but haven’t really looked beyond the standings. Even with a better defenseman this team isn’t going to be winning 10 in a row any time soon.

    If the pick doesn’t have insane value, I keep it. Because it’s a lottery pick, and maybe it’s that Draisatl kid and maybe he’s an impact player. The Oilers already have several, but for me Ehrhoff isn’t worth MORE than the chance to grab one of those two or three impact kids.

    Well, I made up 5-15. If the Oilers actually end up drafting #2 then it is a bad trade but I don’t see that happening other than winning the lottery. Even if they don’t improve (and I think they will) regression of PDO alone brings them up.

    The value of first round picks drop sharply the further you get from #1. Moreover, this team can’t afford to wait. They need real, certain, value now.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    If the pick doesn’t have insane value, I keep it. Because it’s a lottery pick, and maybe it’s that Draisatl kid and maybe he’s an impact player. The Oilers already have several, but for me Ehrhoff isn’t worth MORE than the chance to grab one of those two or three impact kids.

    The relative worth of that pick needs context.

    If Ehrhoff and Phaneuf bring the same thing and Ehrhoff is $3.0-$3.5MM less of a cap hit, then you need to factor in that value, which is huge.

    The value of the team being competitive for the rest of this year is significant too. Can Hall and Eberle, Gagner really play out the string on a bad team again and not affect their future performance or thoughts on remaining with the team?

    There is also certainty. If they trade for Ehrhoff then they have certainty at 1LD for at least 4 years barring injury.

    What happens if DIon or the others make it to FA and none sign with the Oilers?

    The time to nail down 1LD is this season, in season.

    Having the 1LD with 1/2 a season on so with the team/coach/city etc. also helps them hit the ground running next year.

    MacT said he is targeting a team (might be teams) that need to “accept their fate”, i.e. not making the playoffs in order to get the deal done that he wants.

    So it makes sense that a team not making the playoffs and looking at the need to re-build may sell of their 1LD.

    MacT also mentioned that the player might be on a ELC or RFA contract.

    That confuses the hell out of me.

    There are some really nice 1LD on non-playoff teams:

    Ehrhoff
    Phaneuf (Leafs won’t make it imo)
    Giordano
    Tyutin
    Campbell
    Enstrom
    Weber (not LD, but you know)

    None of them on ELC or RFA contracts though.

    Also,

    Even with a better defenseman this team isn’t going to be winning 10 in a row any time soon.

    I dunno LT.

    Continue with .945 goaltending from Doobie and Perron driving big results on the 3rd line (giving the team a real unicorn) and stranger things have happened.

  47. VanOil says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    If we traded for Ehrhoff it would make every one of our D better because they would slide down a slot and play easier opponents. Nic Schultz included in a trademight actually be a negative.

    Agreed. Plus it might slow down the deployment of some prospects. Giving Nurse, for example, another year to pack on some weight would not be the worst thing in the world, it is just a shame he does not qualify for the AHL next year.

  48. prairieschooner says:

    So the Oilers have some good runners in the marathon that is D man development.
    Aren’t we only at the 7 mile mark for some of these guys?
    Some of them have not even filled out their frames yet.
    That Todd Nelson guy seems to have a good handle on development let him work his magic

  49. Andy P says:

    Lowetide: I’ve been looking at that, and I think the answer is unknown. Acton’s offense is so poor he shouldn’t be in the NHL, but there he be.

    Would the Oil be better off next year with or without the pair of Acton Sr and Jr together? How well is Acton Sr doing and is he worth the baggage of his son dragging the team down?

  50. prairieschooner says:

    Are you suggesting that there might be another “old boys club” position available?

  51. dangilitis says:

    Lowetide,

    I am not going to cry nepotism on this one, but the fact that so many have should have made the team’s management take notice and address it.

    So Jones, Arcobello, and Omark, Lander, Horak are all better qualified to be playing right now (yes, even Jones but its close). Several of these guys are friends with the younger leaders. When they are looking around the locker room after a loss (and there will be several more this season) and see Acton, what do you think they are thinking?

    Does Rishaug have the balls to call out the assistant coach’s son? I haven’t heard of it yet, but if he wants to claim that he is a professional and asking the necessary questions of Yak and Bryz, then maybe he should ask the uncomfortable question of WIll: “Do you think you have played well enough this season to earn any ice time whatsoever, or the assurance that you should find a home in Edmonton?” with follow-up “Do you think your father being the coach has anything to do with you being played more than players with actual offensive talents?”

    Funny. I looked at TSN today. Arcobello is tied for 66th for assists. In the NHL. As a rookie. And he’s now missed 4 games. Acton, meanwhile, is one point ahead of Smid.

  52. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Woodguy,
    Even with a better defenseman this team isn’t going to be winning 10 in a row any time soon.
    I dunno LT.
    Continue with .945 goaltending from Doobie and Perron driving big results on the 3rd line (giving the team a real unicorn) and stranger things have happened.

    This team has a lot of Offence, and the Goaltending may have sorted itself out. I agree completely and I may be even more bullish on there chances than you Wood Guy. If this team gets its D figured out who knows. Feels like 06 to me only the playoffs would be this years final. One thing about this team is only CP had talent like the top end of this team. If they can learn to sacrifice and work like the 06 team they will win a cup inside of 3 years.

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