BLUE ON BLUE

Over the last week or so, I’ve been asking some of my guests on LDWLT the following question: if the Oilers trade for a stud defenseman, and have to send one of Justin Schultz or Jeff Petry away, which would it be?

The reaction has been solidly Justin Schultz. Petry’s range of skills give bloggers I talk to the edge. I’ve been wondering lately if Dallas Eakins feels the same way. How would we know? Well, there’s a few ways.

EVEN STRENGTH TIME ON ICE

  1. Jeff Petry 18:19
  2. Justin Schultz 18:14
  3. Phil Larsen 18:12
  4. Andrew Ference 17:26
  5. Anton Belov 16:49
  6. Ladislav Smid 15:20
  7. Nick Schultz 13:57
  8. Corey Potter 12:14
  9. Denis Grebeshkov 11:14
  10. Taylor Fedun 10:58

Fascinating, isn’t it? ALL of the right-handed puck movers are getting a push at even strength. Petry and Schultz the younger are used the same amount, and when Schultz went down they just moved Larsen in there to replace him. I think that’s a tell about Dallas Eakins preference, don’t you? Look at the LD stayat home TOI totals—from Ference down through Schultz the elder he’s not running anyone ragged. The Petry TOI total is 41st in the league—Edmonton has no stud on blue—and Ference’s TOI is ranked 74th, or second pairing.

I think we can safely say that the future Oilers blue will have more in common with Jeff Petry and Justin Schultz than it will with Ladislav Smid.

 CORSI ON (BTN)

  1. Justin Schultz 0.00
  2. Anton Belov -3.97
  3. Jeff Petry -9.95
  4. Nick Schultz -9.98
  5. Andrew Ference -11.28
  6. Phil Larsen -11.33

I’ve restricted this list to 5 or more gp so we can see what’s going on. Schultz the younger has a better CorsiON than anyone, but we would expect him to be playing easier competition that Petry so there’s another shoe to drop. That’s a fairly ghastly number for Ference, one would hope he’s playing tough competition as an explanation. Belov scores well here.

QUALITY OF COMPETITION (BTN)

  1. Phil Larsen 2.790
  2. Andrew Ference 0.160
  3. Jeff Petry -0.230
  4. Nick Schultz -0.576
  5. Anton Belov -1.059
  6. Justin Schultz -1.584

Haha. It’s kind of funny because the Qual Comp marches in lock step with CorsiON: The easy minutes are going to Schultz the younger and Belov and they perform well in shot differential. Mid-level qual comp goes to Nick Schultz, Petry and Ference and they occupy the mid-level of the Corsi graph; and Phil Larsen represents the Christians during the time of Nero. Remember, this is in a very small sample size (8 games for Larsen) so there may be another answer, but his being scratched currently suggests the Oilers see it the same way as Desjardins’ addiator.

 WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I think Dallas Eakins values Jeff Petry as the better defender, but he also likes the offense Justin Schultz delivers and gives him just as much icetime. Another guess would be the Oilers are targeting a lefty defender who can play heavy minutes, and that once he arrives the top 4 might end up being new guy, Schultz (J), Petry and Ference. Belov on deck. Ideally, he’d like a lefty Petry for the toughs and then a reasonably priced shutdown guy for J Schultz (is my guess).

CURRENT WOWY

  • Belov-J Schultz together are 49.6% and they have been together for 151 minutes 5×5.
  • Smid-J Petry together were 45.4% and they were together for 173 minutes 5×5.
  • N Schultz-Ference together are 43.3% and they have been together for 132 minutes 5×5.
  • Ference-J Petry together are 41% and they have been together for 133 minutes 5×5.
  • Belov-Larsen together are 36.5% and they have been together for 79 minutes 5×5.

The best pairing they’re running a lot is Belov-Justin Schultz  and Petry’s most successful partner has been…..Anton Belov.

VOLLMAN

vollman 13-14 blueI think the two guys on each end of the graph (Petry and Justin Schultz) are the future, and Ference is here because of his status as captain and role of bringing leadership. Belov’s an interesting cat, Schultz is better but can’t make a pass, and Larsen is one of these things that doesn’t belong.

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80 Responses to "BLUE ON BLUE"

  1. fifthcartel says:

    I wonder what Belov’s contract would look like should he choose to stay here.

  2. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    I’d like to think that they’ve learned by now not to give more ice time until its earned. Why bury JS and arm his agent for the RFA deal? So I hope the ice time represents today not what the coach expects him to be.

  3. Manitoba Oilers says:

    Is Marco Roy playing tonight or is he sitting

  4. VanOil says:

    “I think we can safely say that the future Oilers blue will have more in common with Jeff Petry and Justin Schultz than it will with Ladislav Smid.”

    I wish I could argue with the truthiness of this statement. I also wish Gazookian grit was not as important to the Oilers as Smidvian compete.

  5. justDOit says:

    Manitoba Oilers:
    Is Marco Roy playing tonightor is he sitting

    He’s listed as being in the lineup.

    http://www.subwaysuperseries.ca/schedule/show/game/66873

  6. Lucinius says:

    justDOit,

    And he has a goal now, too.

  7. Woodguy says:

    The reaction has been solidly Justin Schultz. Petry’s range of skills give bloggers I talk to the edge. I’ve been wondering lately if Dallas Eakins feels the same way. How would we know? Well, there’s a few ways.

    Your guests are wrong.

    Today Petry is the better all around Dman.

    Tomorrow J.Shultz has the ability to reach near Niedermayer heights.

    Well, maybe not quite that high, but lordy this kid’s ceiling is not known today.

    Skates like he’s on a cloud.

    Makes some passes that only 10% of NHL Dmen would try, and 3% would make.

    Re-watch yesterday’s game and see how many pucks hit the forward in stride right in the right spot.

    I love Petry and hope he’s an Oiler for a long, long time, but J.Shultz is something special.

    He’s 68 or so games into his NHL career and he’s already good.

    In 150 games he’ll be very good.

    At 300 games he’ll be unreal.

    There’s a reason that NHL teams were lined up 20 deep to get this kid. (the other 10 knew they had no chance)

  8. Hammers says:

    I see Belov & J.Shultz here a few years from now . Not sure on Petry but probably here . Ference stays at least 2 more years . Make room for Nurse ; Klefbom & Marincin but we still need a top “D” and they only way to get that may take Petry + forward . McT will have to decide if he wants that “D” who is in the top 30-50 plus hope Nurse , Klef & Marincin cut it. If he does do it I expect it to be this year .

  9. TeeVee says:

    I guess I don’t understand the graph well enough to understand why Larsen is so bad?

  10. prairieschooner says:

    Is this one of those trick questions?
    or a variation on Rock Paper Scissors
    Puck movers always beats stay at homes
    LT why do we always have to give up actual NHL players when we have so few to begin with.
    I never believed them when they said you had it in for Smid
    I think you have it in for us!

  11. Lowetide says:

    TeeVee:
    I guess I don’t understand the graph well enough to understand why Larsen is so bad?

    Larsen shouldn’t be playing where he is, is all. He’s not a tough minutes defenseman but both BTN and Vollman have him there.

  12. Lowetide says:

    prairieschooner:
    Is this one of those trick questions?
    or a variation on Rock Paper Scissors
    Puck movers always beats stay at homes
    LT why do we always have to give up actual NHL players when we have so few to begin with.
    I never believed them when they said you had it in for Smid
    I think you have it in for us!

    Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see another NHL team just trading over quality #1-2 dmen for picks and prospects. You’re going to need to sweeten the deal with a quality (but lesser) player.

  13. TeeVee says:

    Sorry. I missed the terrible corsi. I see the QOC and corsi now. Bleh.

  14. RexLibris says:

    Saw this title and “Patio Lanterns” started playing in my head.

    I think Petry is largely underrated, or overlooked, by league analysts. And to be perfectly honest, that doesn’t bother me in the slightest. Guys like he and Dubnyk seem to prefer to stay out of the limelight.

    Petry reminds a bit of Randy Gregg in so far as he is a very good player who is overshadowed by so many other names, but his wide range of skills is a terrific complement to more talented, but perhaps one-dimensional, players.

  15. G Money says:

    Woodguy: He’s 68 or so games into his NHL career and he’s already good.
    In 150 games he’ll be very good.
    At 300 games he’ll be unreal.

    Amen, brother.

    JSchultz has often been Chaos Inc. in his own zone. Migod, he’s 68 games into his NHL career and playing on one of the worst defensive teams in the league – exactly what do we expect?!

    Even if all he does is show average development and improvement on defense over the next 80 games, his skating and his offensive prowess will put him in elite territory.

    If he can put that big college brain of his into developing the defensive side of his brain to above-average – yes, near-Niedermayer heights (Nearmayer?) heights are possible.

    A quick reminder:
    Justin Schultz, first season: 27 pts in 48 games = 0.563 ppg.

    Scott Niedermayer, first season: 40 pts in 80 games = 0.5 ppg.
    Scott Niedermayer, career average: 0.45 ppg

  16. Rondo says:

    Nurse PP assist

  17. misfit says:

    Petry is definitely the better of the two now, but I’d have a really hard time choosing which of the two I’d rather part with because I could see that changing in a big way in the near future.

    The Oilers can’t be the only NHL team that trades away NHL players for futures, and in order for this team to make strides, they need to find a way to add without subtracting. Unfortunately, it seems that most teams with impact defensemen on their roster either drafted them (Keith, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Weber, Karlsson, Subban, Edler, etcl) or signed them as UFAs (Chara, Suter).

    The way I see it, the only way that hole gets filled adequately is by grossly overpaying Phaneuf/Girardi in free agency (both probably get re-signed anyway) or by holding out for Nurse in 2-5 years. I just don’t see the trade option happening. At least not to the point where we’re getting the kind of defenseman who would justify sending Petry or Schultz the other way.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Nurse with an assist tonight.

  19. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Shultz was a gift.

    You can lead a gift horse to water just don’t look it in the mouth. :) I think trading a college Free agent so soon wouldn’t help signing any other college free agents for a while and his flaws are fixable.

    He is raw now, but he is smart and will learn how to handle his own end, especially if he gets a mentor like a Weber to learn from. I move Petry as my Brewer if I have no choice but I think Klefbom is a pretty famous D prospect inside the scouting community and I would try to move him and Gagner first. It would have to be a top 15 Dman and I would add if it was the right player.

  20. ohhell says:

    LT,

    I see that John McCarron is 3-9-12 in 8GP for Cornell. He is a 6’2″ – 225lb PIM machine but is 21 yrs old. Is this someone we should be getting excited about? He stacks up well when comparing him to Colin Greening who managed to carve out a career in Ottawa, but McCarron has an extra dose of nasty to his game. Thoughts?

  21. GordM says:

    All we need is a Delorian w/ a Flux Capacitor. Then have Doc Brown go to 2020, grab Darnell Nurse off the ice and bring him back to 2013.

  22. Lowetide says:

    ohhell:
    LT,

    I see that John McCarron is 3-9-12 in 8GP for Cornell.He is a 6’2″ – 225lb PIM machine but is 21 yrs old.Is this someone we should be getting excited about?He stacks up well when comparing him to Colin Greening who managed to carve out a career in Ottawa, but McCarron has an extra dose of nasty to his game.Thoughts?

    You bet! He’s on the top 20 and I’m very excited about his progress.

  23. justDOit says:

    RexLibris:
    Saw this title and “Patio Lanterns” started playing in my head.

    Oilers connection for the last few years: Heartache on heartache.

  24. ohhell says:

    Khaira with a goal.

  25. justDOit says:

    GordM:
    All we need is a Delorian w/ a Flux Capacitor.Then have Doc Brown go to 2020, grab Darnell Nurse off the ice and bring him back to 2013.

    Won’t his Seattle Seals uniform be a problem?

  26. Lowetide says:

    Khaira with a goal tonight.

  27. VanOil says:

    A solution I could see fitting the current defense philosophy of the Oilers is N.Schultz, Marincin and a Pick for Ehrhoff. The pick could be upgraded to Musil given his playing style seems out of favor despite a good transition to the AHL according to Willis. Marincin-Myers could cover most of the rink with out moving.

    This would allow for next years defense to look like this: (juggle as you see fit)
    Ehrhoff-JSchultz
    Petry -Belov
    Ference-Kelfbom
    Fedun #7

    Nurse getting over ripe and bigger in Jr. Simpson getting a year give or take a cup of coffee in the AHL.

    Too bad 3 for 1 trades are a myth.

  28. ohhell says:

    Khaira is one assist away from the Gordie Howe hat trick. 17 PIMS so he will be sitting out most of the second period.

  29. TheOtherJohn says:

    G Money: Amen, brother.

    JSchultz has often been Chaos Inc. in his own zone.Migod, he’s 68 games into his NHL career and playing on one of the worst defensive teams in the league – exactly what do we expect?!

    Even if all he does is show average development and improvement on defense over the next 80 games, his skating and his offensive prowess will put him in elite territory.

    If he can put that big college brain of his into developing the defensive side of his brain to above-average – yes, near-Niedermayer heights (Nearmayer?) heights are possible.

    A quick reminder:
    Justin Schultz, first season: 27 pts in 48 games = 0.563 ppg.

    Scott Niedermayer, first season: 40 pts in 80 games = 0.5 ppg.
    Scott Niedermayer, career average: 0.45 ppg

    Whoa, whoa whoa, Niedermayer played 4 games for the Devils at age 18. JSchu was playing his last year in the BCJHL at that age. At age 19 Niedermayer played 80 games and scored 40 pts. Or the .5 ppg. And was plus 8 as a 19 year old. JSchu had 27 pts in 48 games, as you say .563. With his head up his ass defensively. -17 in 48 games which is on track for a -28 on an 80 game schedule………At 22 years old.

    Those are not apples and apples. Scoring, or even being in the NHL at 18 and 19 is most decidedly not doing the same thing at age 22. Moreover if Lou Lamierello caught sight of JSchu’s D he might have shot him. At age 22 Neidermayer was a plus 61. Not suggesting for a minute +/- is anything but primitive tool but JSchu D at age 22 is BADDDDDDDDD

    Bill James clearly established hitting 20 home runs at 19 is not like hitting 20 hr at age 22. Worlds apart

    At age 22 Neidermayer had played in EC finals twice. Dougie Hamilton player very few minutes in last years playoffs at age 20? Because if you can’t defend anybody team can’t afford to have you on the ice. Hamilton is a better defender than JSchu

    Great offensive prospect. Older than I’d like but he also represents manna from heaven….cost us nothing. But to suggest they should be thought of in a similar light as Neidermayer is wildly optimistic on a very very short record.

    Think you and WG are hoping he turns into a solid top pairing offensive D. Not a 1st ballot HHOfer. Coffey couldn’t play D when he got here and never learned to play D throughout his career. And he started at 18. Expect J Schu’s career is closer to Dick Tarnstrom or Keith Yandle.

    Hope you and WG are right and I am wrong. I just don’t think so.

  30. KSC10032 says:

    Woodguy,

    The question was “who would have to be included in a deal for a STUD defenseman”.

    It would have to be Shultz for exactly the reasons you outline — because he would generate a better return, having the higher upside. He has considerably more upside than Petry, and we would have to include the better of the two to even have an outside chance of such a blockbuster trade scenario.

    BTW — I remain of the opinion that Brian Rafalski represents a better final product equivalent for Shultz than some of the other comparatives being discussed (Niedermayer). That would still be a pretty good final outcome — IMO.

  31. TheOtherJohn says:

    Rafalski was a very good player

  32. Big Dan says:

    I’d be willing to part with Jeff Petry if it meant Brian Campbell, who may be the old stud defenseman that has a possibility to be traded. I doubt he’d come here.

    Petry is better right now, but will likely top out like Tom Poti. Players like Justin Schultz don’t come along everyday. But he needs a good D coach.

  33. sliderule says:

    The trouble with this teams defence is we drafted assbackwards.

    The oil kept picking small skilled forwards instead of D who take longer to develop.

    If we had picked the more or less consensus defender available rather than Gagner and Eberle we would have Carlson and McDonagh on our D.

    The oil didn’t do that so we are going to have a smaller window to be an elite team.Three years from now if Klefbom Marincin and Nurse can join Schultz and Petry we might have something until our forwards production starts to falter with age.

    Justin Schultz was a gift horse and as such we have to remember the adage not to look in his mouth.Just be happy that The oil were able to get him.

  34. Racki says:

    Who would I trade to get the big defender… well, I’m going to assume “Jultz” has the higher market value. But we’ll assume these guys are on an even playing field. I guess who would I want to be left with, is a better question. I think both are good defensemen in their own right. I think Petry is the better natural defenseman, whereas Schultz is a better offensive defenseman.

    So, I suppose my answer would depend on who we are getting back. If we get a solid LHD that can play rock solid defense, I would keep Justin Schultz. I think paired with a Weber-esque guy, and you get maxium-extreme-potent value out of Justin Schultz. Let him do what he wants to do out there, and he’ll do some damage offensively. If you’re bringing back a top calibre righty, and therefore neither of Schultz or Petry will be playing with him (likely), I’d probably keep Petry, as I think his game is a little more complete even though the offensive game is lagging by comparison (well, ya know.. Jultz really should be scoring more and will one day).

    In reality though, if we were in line to get Weber, and they wanted one d-man over the other, I would hand him over instantly.

  35. David says:

    Woodguy:
    The reaction has been solidly Justin Schultz. Petry’s range of skills give bloggers I talk to the edge. I’ve been wondering lately if Dallas Eakins feels the same way. How would we know? Well, there’s a few ways.

    Your guests are wrong.

    Today Petry is the better all around Dman.

    Tomorrow J.Shultz has the ability to reach near Niedermayer heights.

    Well, maybe not quite that high, but lordy this kid’s ceiling is not known today.

    Skates like he’s on a cloud.

    Makes some passes that only 10% of NHL Dmen would try, and 3% would make.

    Re-watch yesterday’s game and see how many pucks hit the forward in stride right in the right spot.

    I love Petry and hope he’s an Oiler for a long, long time, but J.Shultz is something special.

    He’s 68 or so games into his NHL career and he’s already good.

    In 150 games he’ll be very good.

    At 300 games he’ll be unreal.

    There’s a reason that NHL teams were lined up 20 deep to get this kid. (the other 10 knew they had no chance)

    This

  36. oilfan9911 says:

    KSC10032:
    Woodguy,

    The question was “who would have to be included in a deal for a STUD defenseman”.

    It would have to be Shultz for exactly the reasons you outline — because he would generate a better return, having the higher upside.He has considerably more upside than Petry, and we would have to include the better of the two to even have an outside chance of such a blockbuster trade scenario.

    BTW — I remain of the opinion that Brian Rafalski represents a better final product equivalent for Shultz than some of the other comparatives being discussed (Niedermayer).That would still be a pretty good final outcome — IMO.

    Six words on why Justin Schultz need not be included in a blockbuster deal for a 1d:

    Eric Brewer. Ladislav Smid. Luca Sbisa.

  37. justDOit says:

    Columbus 1
    Calgary 0
    LogBoxscoreGameTracker

    End of the 2nd. Yes.

  38. Woodguy says:

    KSC10032:
    Woodguy,

    The question was “who would have to be included in a deal for a STUD defenseman”.

    It would have to be Shultz for exactly the reasons you outline — because he would generate a better return, having the higher upside.He has considerably more upside than Petry, and we would have to include the better of the two to even have an outside chance of such a blockbuster trade scenario.

    BTW — I remain of the opinion that Brian Rafalski represents a better final product equivalent for Shultz than some of the other comparatives being discussed (Niedermayer).That would still be a pretty good final outcome — IMO.

    Any team trading a “stud Dman” obviously has a replacement on their own roster in mind and needs scoring F.

    Otherwise they are not even thinking about trading.

    Petry can play 1st pairing, but is probably 2nd pairing on a good team.

    He and a high end scoring F and maybe a 1st probably does it.

    Although, that trade raaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeellllllllllyyyyyyyyy happens.

    More likely you can get a “good” 1LD (not a “stud”) for much less and he’d provide probably what you need.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Any team trading a “stud Dman” obviously has a replacement on their own roster in mind and needs scoring F.

    Otherwise they are not even thinking about trading.

    Petry can play 1st pairing, but is probably 2nd pairing on a good team.

    He and a high end scoring F and maybe a 1st probably does it.

    Although, that trade raaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeeeellllllllllyyyyyyyyy happens.

    More likely you can get a “good” 1LD (not a “stud”) for much less and he’d provide probably what you need.

    Which brings us back to Ehrhoff. what is the estimated price? I’d prefer not to deal the 1st rd pick.

  40. Racki says:

    Lowetide: Which brings us back to Ehrhoff. what is the estimated price? I’d prefer not to deal the 1st rd pick.

    See I’d definitely move the pick. Maybe closer to the draft though when it likely has more value. Are you hearing much hype over this year’s draft class? It might be too early, but usually we hear more by now.. and it seems like Reinhart is a fair step above other players near the top, and also doesn’t appear to be of that high-end calibre either. So I dunno.. I’d move it for some help now, myself. Doesn’t seem like this draft year is all that high end. But that might also mean teams out there aren’t giving as high of value for this pick either, I suppose, for that reason.

    Also, I will say Ehrhoff’s term for his contract is scary as hell. But at least the cap hit is fairly “value” for what you get.

  41. Thinker says:

    sliderule,

    NoNoNo. You draft a forward in the first round, they are much more of a sure thing. If we really want to we can trade our small players to fill needs. Would you rather have cam fowler, or have hall who you can trade for essentially any dman in the league? You take dmen in the second round. Look at the top ten dmen each year, very few are first round choices, subban seabrook, kieth, green, the list goes on. THERE HAS BEEN ONE DREW DOUGHTY IN THE LAST TWENTY YEARS.
    Honestly though, I am still pissed that we decided to go for it the last few games of last season. When vancouver HS half their lineup, there is no reason we shouldn’t do the same. We should have has smith in net. That stupid pride lost us a much better pick (barkov, or Jones), we should have learned that in the 08 draft, but hey Lowe knows how to win.
    We do need to improve d, but we have all the time in the world. Crosby was drafted about the same time into their rebuild as yak, and they won the cup five years after. Might as well take shots a FA, and avoid trading anything of value building as good a d core as we can on a budget. When the time comes swing a yak for number one dman, but there is no point trading for one during a lost season. Flip gagner for another petry type if you can, fill out the middle of the order, and wait for the chance to swing for the hills.

  42. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: Which brings us back to Ehrhoff. what is the estimated price? I’d prefer not to deal the 1st rd pick.

    All roads are leading back to Ehrhoff at this point.

    Friedman’s 30 thoughts had a little blurb about Florida not interested in moving Campbell right now.

    Philly is playing well and need Coburn-I think you can rule them out for the time being.

    Buffalo doesn’t even have a GM right now so I wouldn’t expect anything in the short term.

    Most other teams are still thinking playoffs so the potential suitors are few and far between until the trade deadline(at the earliest)

    Where do you think the Oilers finish if they add Ehrhoff without giving up one of the wonder kids..?

    Something like the 1st, Nultz and another prospect(Moroz??Musil??Marincin?)

    Nultz is a draft pick in waiting for Buffalo, he is moved to balance out the dollars.

    The Oilers won’t make the playoffs, but I could see them climbing into the low 20′s overall,maybe higher.

    So where is your threshold..would you trade the 8th overall pick for Ehrhoff..?10th..?..12th?

    You could ask for protection on the pick as well(ie top 5 pick…get creative) but that lowers the value for Buffalo.

    I think I’d make that deal.

  43. Nuckout says:

    This really puts into perspective the lack of depth last year compared to now. If you said to me last season that Petry would become the better all around dman over Jultz this year, I wouldn’t have believed you. Same goes for arco, Being able to HS a guy with his offensive contribution speaks volumes. At Arco’s expense, this really is a good problem.

    IMHO the lack of competition between players for spots did nothing to contribute to the overall growth of the players as a whole. Not having to really fight for your job leads to a sense of complacency, as witnessed last year.

    Not to knock Eakins around too much, I wonder how Kruger would have fared under MacT.

  44. Scotty LaDouche says:

    Smid didnt look so hot on that Columbus game winner.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Jeff Marek ‏@JeffMarek 3m

    Ducks hire former Oilers GM Steve Tambellini to pro scouting staff.

  46. Lowetide says:

    Helene Elliott ‏@helenenothelen 3m

    Ducks announce they’ve hired Steve Tambellini as a part-time pro scout. Tambellini was GM of Oilers from 2008-13

  47. justDOit says:

    Lowetide,

    Post it once more – I think I’m getting it.

    Edit: No. Lost it. Who?

  48. Lowetide says:

    Tambi. Got a job!

  49. Hammers says:

    Tambi to Ducks . Yea . This brotherhood of old GM’s & Coaches getting jobs drives me nuts.

  50. justDOit says:

    Lordy!

  51. DeadmanWaking says:

    VanOil: Gazookian

    Gegoondheit: Norwegian (via Middle English) for keep your eyes on your young Pages when Gallic pride is shattered.

    Stunned.

    Staggered.

  52. 719 says:

    IF Ehroff/Campbell are moved, those trades seems like a move that is more likely to happen in the off-season. Do not forget both players have NTCs and it seems unlikely they would waive them to come here.

    The guy I think the Oilers’ revisit is Coburn, for better or worse.

  53. VanOil says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    Gegoondheit, Ehrhoff, Draisaitl

    the Germans are coming, the Germans are coming

    I strongly suspected the swarm was the blitzkrieg waltz in disguise

  54. spoiler says:

    If the playoffs started today, no team in the East would have enough points to make the cut in the West.

  55. stevezie says:

    Because the instincts that posses you at 3:21 in the eh em are firmly infallible , I have gone on stubhub and purchased tickets for tonight’s game.

    This may surprise you folks, but the Panthers do not appear to be a popular draw. $20 each! Losing money not to, at those rates.

    I don’t care who they’re playing, I’m mostly going for the fleeting thrill of being a real fan. And because my mate (hee-hee) just moved here from Scotland and is wondering what it is I’m always going on aboot.

    He’s gonna learn today.

  56. TheOtherJohn says:

    People seem surprised Tambi got a job. KLowe remains head of hockey operations n/w/s the abysmal performance of our hockey operations.

    Crosby played in SCF in his draft +3 and won it in his draft +4. This is Hall’s draft + 4 and we are miles and miles away from the playoffs little alone the SCF.

    If the quality of the defense does not improve in short order, the likelihood of the Oilers having a
    long (5-7) run as an elite team is pretty remote. And know Nurse and Klefbom are incapable of playing top 4 minutes next year

    Lastly on dealing the pick, someone posted on twitter that if the Oilers play the balance of the season at .500 level (with lots of WC games) we have an 84% chance of picking in top 3

  57. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Tambi. Got a job!

    Good for him!

  58. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss: All roads are leading back to Ehrhoff at this point.

    Friedman’s 30 thoughts had a little blurb about Florida not interested in moving Campbell right now.

    Philly is playing well and need Coburn-I think you can rule them out for the time being.

    Buffalo doesn’t even have a GM right now so I wouldn’t expect anything in the short term.

    Most other teams are still thinking playoffs so the potential suitors are few and far between until the trade deadline(at the earliest)

    Where do you think the Oilers finish if they add Ehrhoff without giving up one of the wonder kids..?

    Something like the 1st, Nultz and another prospect(Moroz??Musil??Marincin?)

    Nultz is a draft pick in waiting for Buffalo, he is moved to balance out the dollars.

    The Oilers won’t make the playoffs, but I could see them climbing into the low 20′s overall,maybe higher.

    So where is your threshold..would you trade the 8th overall pick for Ehrhoff..?10th..?..12th?

    You could ask for protection on the pick as well(ie top 5 pick…get creative) but that lowers the value for Buffalo.

    I think I’d make that deal.

    The money spots in this year’s draft are top 3 maybe 4.

    I don’t think the Oilers finish that low, even without Erhoff.

    With Erhoff they might get up to 20 or so.

    Turning that pick into a 1LD that can help immediately and for the next 3-4 years is much, much, much more important than drafting a player who can *maybe* help in 3-4 years.

    Clock is ticking on Hall’s deal.

    Its not close.

  59. justDOit says:

    stevezie,

    Good for you! It would seem that the Panthers’ ticket prices follow them throughout the league, although I’m pretty sure you would also get a beer and slice of pizza for $20 down there.

    Hope the Scot gets a good game to see.

  60. David says:

    Woodguy: The money spots in this year’s draft are top 3 maybe 4.

    I don’t think the Oilers finish that low, even without Erhoff.

    With Erhoff they might get up to 20 or so.

    Turning that pick into a 1LD that can help immediately and for the next 3-4 years is much, much, much more important than drafting a player who can *maybe* help in 3-4 years.

    Clock is ticking on Hall’s deal.

    Its not close.

    The thing is that Erhoff will help for 3-4,5 years but we don’t just want a good team now we want a good team for 20 years (or forever) with a top ten draft pick that player will be an impact player for as long as we want them. (7,8,9,10 years) the time of getting these players for nothing is drawing to a close. We need to stockpile them while we can.

  61. Lynas1 says:

    I have high hopes for Petry, but I’m not sold on him. Found a site with turnover +/-, has Jeff Petry ranked 725 of 734 with stats with a -15 this year. Justin Schultz is at -5 this year ranked 100+ spots up the list. Ahead of many of our regular D, Hall, and Yak.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-turnover-plus-minus/2013/

    I’ll post last years in a few minutes. Petry does some things well for sure, but turnovers have been killing us for several seasons now.

  62. Lynas1 says:

    Last year ranked 767 on the list with -14 rating. Ahead of several of our former/current D but nowhere near even the average.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-turnover-plus-minus/2012/

  63. jp says:

    spoiler:
    If the playoffs started today, no team in the East would have enough points to make the cut in the West.

    Wow. The Oilers would be 7 points back of 8th in the East rather than 16 points back. That would be nice.

  64. bookje says:

    Woodguy,

    I would go so far as to say that if the Oilers still have their first round pick come the trade deadline that its a failure on MacT’s part (one might call it Tambellini-like failure). The pick has to go and the return needs to help the team now (and in the longer term).

  65. delooper says:

    bookje:
    I would go so far as to say that if the Oilers still have their first round pick come the trade deadline that its a failure on MacT’s part (one might call it Tambellini-like failure).The pick has to go and the return needs to help the team now (and in the longer term).

    Anyone know a team that wants to get rid of “help the team now” type assets in exchange for magic beans?

  66. jp says:

    Lynas1:
    I have high hopes for Petry, but I’m not sold on him.Found a site with turnover +/-, has Jeff Petry ranked 725 of 734 with stats with a -15 this year.Justin Schultz is at -5 this year ranked 100+ spots up the list.Ahead of many of our regular D, Hall, and Yak.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-turnover-plus-minus/2013/

    I’ll post last years in a few minutes.Petry does some things well for sure, but turnovers have been killing us for several seasons now.

    Are these the NHL giveaway/takeaway numbers you see on the boxscores? The website doesn’t say. The numbers seem a bit low to me, and the spread of the whole league is just from +22 to -20. Not a whole lot of events going into this.

    Looking at last seasons numbers, Datsyuk is on top where he should be, but look at the players in Petry’s range. Letang, Markov and Karlsson (in 22 GP!) are tied with Petry at -15. Zidlicky, Demers, Goligoski, Phillips, Williams, Kessel, Vyonov and Hjalmarsson are worse.

    I agree that Petry could stand to cut down on his giveaways, but Petry’s place on that list is doing nothing to make me question whether he’s a good defenseman.

    Smid’s probably responsible for half of those turnovers anyway. Give the puck to Petry and let him turn it over :)

  67. jp says:

    Lynas1,

    Edit to above: Those are this season’s numbers (site lists 2013-14 as 2013). That explains why the events seem low – the spread is +40 to -38 from last years shortened season.

    And to quickly add some numbers actually from last season. A very selected list of some of the guys worse than Petry in (2012)-13.

    From the Oilers D alone:
    Smid
    NSchultz
    JSchultz
    Whitney

    And from around the league:
    Beauchemin
    Coburn
    Chara
    Weber
    Letang
    Boyle
    Doughty
    Subban
    Markov
    Phaneuf

    A boat load of top D don’t look good by this metric.

  68. Lynas1 says:

    jp,

    Don’t know specifics on it. Not really concerned who is close to petry or not for the most part. If these are legit numbers, it tells me (as my brother does) that Petry is a turnover machine. By my terrible eyes, I tend to believe it. I see him turn over the puck a lot. Considering that turnovers often lead to good chances against, that speaks to poor defensive play. If giving up good chances against often (as compared to others especially top 4/2 defense) is as good an indication as any of good/bad defensive play.

    Turnovers by hall and other forwards I’m sure are used in the equation of good/bad defensive play, so it must be a factor for defenseman.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Turnovers are a reflection of the players who have the puck a lot. They are also badly kept records. Honestly, I would suggest they have little or no value in teaching us about specific players, and we certainly have to factor in touches with those who are at the front of the line.

  70. Lowetide says:

    That said, I’m sure that the teams themselves track those numbers closely.

  71. Lynas1 says:

    Lowetide:
    Turnovers are a reflection of the players who have the puck a lot. They are also badly kept records. Honestly, I would suggest they have little or no value in teaching us about specific players, and we certainly have to factor in touches with those who are at the front of the line.

    I definitely agree that we can give turnover stats more weight when compared to puck posession stats. I don’t necessarily agree that player turnover stats (if accurately kept) have little or no value or indication of an aspect of ones defensive play. Certainly is a glaring part of what I see from Taylor Hall (my favourite player ATM). How many times have we seen hall try to break into the o-zone and turn it over 1-on1 and the play goes the other way? Playing in the o-zone is the best D, so giving the puck up and it going the other way is an aspect of defensive ability, be it of the player, or team and player. Thoughts?

  72. Lowetide says:

    Lynas1: I definitely agree that we can give turnover stats more weight when compared to puck posession stats.I don’t necessarily agree that player turnover stats (if accurately kept) have little or no value or indication of an aspect of ones defensive play.Certainly is a glaring part of what I see from Taylor Hall (my favourite player ATM).How many times have we seen hall try to break into the o-zone and turn it over 1-on1 and the play goes the other way?Playing in the o-zone is the best D, so giving the puck up and it going the other way is an aspect of defensive ability, be it of the player, or team and player.Thoughts?

    The value of carrying the puck in (or passing and maintaining possession) is SO great that those turnovers are a small price to pay. Have you read Eric Tulsky’s work on this subject? Very revealing.

  73. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    Woodguy,

    I would go so far as to say that if the Oilers still have their first round pick come the trade deadline that its a failure on MacT’s part (one might call it Tambellini-like failure).The pick has to go and the return needs to help the team now (and in the longer term).

    Agreed.

  74. Lynas1 says:

    Lowetide: The value of carrying the puck in (or passing and maintaining possession) is SO great that those turnovers are a small price to pay. Have you read Eric Tulsky’s work on this subject? Very revealing.

    No sir. Do you have a web address? If it’s not online I likely can’t read it. If it simply says I’m out to lunch (or complicated), feel free to fill me in on this. My eyesight makes it very difficult for me to track players on ice performances, so when snet and/or TSN say something like makes a bad defensive play resulting in turnover or whatever, I do have to take a lot of it at face value.

  75. wintoon says:

    I am convinced that the most glaring hole in the Oilers line up is at 2C. Due to Gagner’s inability to play any defensive role it puts huge pressure on the D corps. When he loses/ignores his man and the slot scoring chances abound. Therefore, I would suggest that drafting a player like Draisaitl would be a huge improvement to the Oilers in the shorter term. Gagner and prospects should be used to acquire a strong NHL calibre #2 or #3 D man. The combination of these moves coupled with the projected emergence of Nurse and Klefbom would solidify the Oilers line up for years to come.

  76. Lynas1 says:

    wintoon:
    I am convinced that the most glaring hole in the Oilers line up is at 2C. Due to Gagner’s inability to play any defensive role it puts huge pressure on the D corps. When he loses/ignores his man and the slot scoring chances abound. Therefore, I would suggest that drafting a player like Draisaitl would be a huge improvement to the Oilers in the shorter term. Gagner and prospects should be used to acquire a strong NHL calibre #2 or #3 D man. The combination of these moves coupled with the projected emergence of Nurse and Klefbom would solidify the Oilers line up for years to come.

    I would agree that Gagner is a problem that needs to be solved. I personally would like to see if Arco is a viable option going forward. Wouldn’t be the first time an undrafted mid 20s forward broke into the league and excelled (Marty St luis). I know he’s an exception, but it could happen. Arco can already win draws better than Gagner, and seems to play better two way game. I’d rather trade for 2C then try and draft one at this point.

  77. Tapdog says:

    VanOil,
    In regards to Simpson and may have already been clarified but is he not a UFA come December when he is done school?
    If so the Oilers will have to line up with everyone else for his services. Please let me know if this is correc?

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think you try damn hard to keep both and see if you can’t cobble something out of N. Schultz, Larsen, Potter, prospects and picks.

    Also, I have no idea what Eakins was thinking with Larsen. I really like the player. He’s got really nice wheels and gets back hard but he’s in way over his head for that kind of competition and ice time.

    Belov looks like a real find. I wouldn’t be surprised to see all of Petry, J. Schultz and Belov stick with this team for the next 6 years (with Ference tagging along for a couple; an unnamed Stud and the kids bubbling up).

    Lowetide:
    Helene Elliott ‏@helenenothelen 3m

    Ducks announce they’ve hired Steve Tambellini as a part-time pro scout. Tambellini was GM of Oilers from 2008-13

    Fantastic!

    On a human level I always liked him and felt bad for the guy. He was put in over his head and his boss never helped him. Firing a guy who’s in over his head is helping a guy out.

    His tenure in Van seemed to be well regarded, I wouldn’t be surprised to discover he can flourish when out of the limelight and given a short list of things to accomplish. Wish him well.

    ohhell:
    LT,

    I see that John McCarron is 3-9-12 in 8GP for Cornell.He is a 6’2″ – 225lb PIM machine but is 21 yrs old.Is this someone we should be getting excited about?He stacks up well when comparing him to Colin Greening who managed to carve out a career in Ottawa, but McCarron has an extra dose of nasty to his game.Thoughts?

    I know he’s older… but John is really outplaying his much more highly regarded younger brother:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=145517

    Still think 25 was too high for that pick.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    If we draft Draisaitl that is not a failure. I will not countenance this line of thought.

  80. VanOil says:

    Tapdog:
    VanOil,
    In regards to Simpson andmay have already been clarified but is he not a UFA come December when he is done school?
    If so the Oilers will have to line up with everyone else for his services. Please let me know if this is correc?

    My understanding is that Simpson graduates at the end of this term. He plays hockey with UND into the spring. When the hockey season is over the Oilers can sign him. They have exclusive negotiation rights until August. This allows the Oilers the ability to burn a year off the ELC contract by paying him for some work in the spring. Because of Simpsons young age he does not qualify for a two year ELC from any other team giving the Oilers a big advantage starting the 3 year term early. For Simpson this mean he earns a bonus and a bit of cash now and if he makes it as a player an extra year of UFA money.

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