OILERS AT FLYERS G18, 13-14

The Edmonton Oilers are 1-1 on their road trip and with some luck could be 2-0; they are in Philadelphia this morning to play the equally ghastly Flyers. If there were a Stanley Suck final, these two teams would be locks for the final four. However, it’s early and there’s plenty of blacktop to catch up.

parent

Both organizations badly need this man—(dum, dum, dum!)–Bernie Parent! Now, Bernie was born right at the end of the war, so he’s not moving too quickly these days. However, Parent’s come along about once every 7 years–some little town in Czech produced a BETTER version of Parent out of beer bottles, binder twine and the leftovers of multiple defenestrations–and the Flyers got one and have tried (in vain) to get more over the years. They’ve spent money, first round picks, veterans, you name it, but they’ve never gotten a Parent close to their Parent. And that’s a long, long time.

pronger2Both organizations badly need this man–(dunh, du du dunh!)–Chris Pronger! He played one beautiful season in Edmonton before bringing Stanley to California. In Philadelphia he came close enough for jazz to doing it again, and now he slumbers in the backyard as the robins play Chris Pronger to earthworms. Edmonton has been looking high and low for a big man (how hard can they be to see?) since the Rake left for the airport.

If you’re a draft fan like me, the NHL draft site “NHL Draft Analysis” will no doubt mean all kinds of wasted hours figuring out who’s zooming who over 25 years at the draft table. Here is the Oiler draft record 1979-2011:

expected value

The blue line (representing real value added) from 2010-11 looks very similar to another period on the graph–kind of cool.

7Oilers will need to go on a crazy (like 7 of 9) to make a significant move up the standings, but they’ll eventually pass a bunch of eastern conference teams (and Calgary, who have been slightly worse in their last 10 than the Oilers). This crazy early season of road games piled upon road games is coming to an end, and hopefully the club can get things in order and push beyond last year’s finish.

POSSIBLE LINEUP FOR TODAY

  • Gagner-Hall-Hemsky
  • Nuge-Perron-Eberle
  • Gordon-Joesnuu-Arcobello
  • Smyth-Jones-Yakupov
  • Ference-Petry
  • Belov-Larsen
  • N Schultz-Fedun
  • Dubnyk

MacT’s comments yesterday were telling–they like this club despite the record–and I think the Smid trade doesn’t happen without Dallas Eakins as coach. That’s something we need to talk about as time rolls along, the fact that the veterans who pre-date MacT/Eakins are in real danger because there’s no loyalty there. A list of players who could be dealt at any time might include Ales Hemsky, Ryan Jones, Jeff Petry, Nick Schultz, Devan Dubnyk. That’s just the way it is.

We’ll see a lot more of this in the summer, Oilers have 13 free agents and I bet MacT signs only a couple (Belov, possibly Dubnyk and Hemsky).

The Oilers have employed a tremendous number of players this season, it’ll be a record by season’s end. We’ve seen 3 goalies already, Bryzgalov would be 4. Edmonton used six goalies in 1979-80, I bet they end up very close to that number this season. The loyalty to Dubnyk is over, we may see him traded this season.

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408 Responses to "OILERS AT FLYERS G18, 13-14"

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  1. bookje says:

    Maybe Dibnyk will find his game now?

  2. Pouzar says:

    Is JJ confirmed back in lineup?

  3. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Is JJ confirmed back in lineup?

    No, nor Belov. This is me riffing off the practice lines yesterday.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Gagner-Hall-Hemsky
    Nuge-Perron-Eberle
    Gordon-Joesnuu-Arcobello
    Smyth-Jones-Yakupov
    Ference-Petry
    Belov-Larsen
    N Schultz-Fedun
    Dubnyk”

    So I guess Acton is back in his home in EDM? Ha!

    What’s up with that 4th line, anyway? That’s crazy!

    I hope Perron, Joensuu and Belov are all actually read to go… praise and prayers be to Gord.

  5. Minister D- says:

    “In Philadelphia he came close enough for jazz to doing it again, and now he slumbers in the backyard as the robins play Chris Pronger to earthworms”

    Poetry, LT.

    Prediction: Oilers win, 4-2 to a hearty round of boos from the Philly faithful. Hall, Perron, Eberle (2).

    Is Roman Horak good enough to replace Acton, like, tomorrow? Because that would be nice.

  6. Pouzar says:

    Please dear gawd let us have a healthy lineup going forward. Enuff already!

  7. Ben says:

    Prediction: Simmonds blows out Hemsky’s knee.

  8. Pouzar says:

    WIllis pimping Tomas Kopecky.
    Seems like a nice 3rd/4th liner with size. Penalty killer who can chip in with the odd goal.
    Big cap hit though at 3 mill.

    Thoughts?

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ben:
    Prediction: Simmonds blows out Hemsky’s knee.

    That’s Hartnell’s job, no?

  10. cdean says:

    Oilers 4 – 3 with a three point night from Giroux 2 G – 1A.

  11. Caramel Obvious says:

    Continuing on the Smid discussion. I was one of the few to give a qualified defense of the move. It’s a move I would normally hate since it contradicts the maxim to get good players, keep good players. It is also a move that I justified by saying, in effect, that Smid was redundant, an idea I argued was a conceptual impossibility this very week.

    So what could possibly be the good news? What is the big picture?

    1) This tells us that MacT and Eakins are very, very, serious about wanting puck moving, possession defensemen and that is good news. In this sense this is the opposite of the Gilbert trade. This is the good news and shouldn’t be slighted.

    2) The question of why now is a good one. Even if you insist on trading Smid couldn’t you have gotten more for him later. Perhaps, but trades later in the season tend to involve draft picks and draft picks really are magic beans. This tells us that the Oilers really like Brossoit and value hiim more than a second round draft pick. I think they are wrong about this based on the numbers. This is the bad news. The fetishization of Oil Kings. But on the whole I’d rather have players that are closer to playing and might contribute this year or next than a couple of second round picks. And since Smid was never going to get a first round pick I’m not sure you get more by waiting until later.

    So LT is right. The real news is what this tells us about Eakins and MacT and how they evaluate players. Look at Eakins comments about Larsen. He’s basically been their #1D the last two games. That is telling. And since I like the emphasis on speed and skill over grit I’m on board even though the return isn’t great.

    In this sense this is nothing like a Tambo move. This is a very progressive move of a team that might really emphasize things that lead to winning. A good team should have no purely “defensive” defensemen. It does no good to get the puck if you can’t keep the puck.

    I should add that I am looking for the good news here. It is possible I am undervaluing Smid here and if the Oilers don’t use his cap space for something they are worse in the short term.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Caramel: Exactly. Mobile defensemen are going to roam the Oilers earth. Poor Jim Matheson. :-)

  13. icecastles says:

    Pouzar: Is JJ confirmed back in lineup?

    He did great things with Star Trek and I’m stoked about what he will accomplish at the helm of the new Star Wars movies. I have to be honest though that I just don’t see him as a fit for the Oilers. Saw him bad on Conan and he just looks like another undersized skill guy to me. We’d do much better to target the likes of Verhoeven: goon type, but also a bit of a proven scoring touch.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Caramel: Exactly. Mobile defensemen are going to roam the Oilers earth. Poor Jim Matheson.

    What…. no Willie Mitchells? No Deryk Engellands? No Mark Fistrics? No Matt Greenes?

    ———-
    A couple of thoughts on the Eakins/MacT…

    I think we need to cautious about over-interpreting any moves here (Larsen/Smid).

    I completely agree that this has the makings of follow-through on the Summer language of puck-moving D… but I’m not convinced we don’t see a crunching D come in out of nowhere in the next 3 months and I wonder about the persistence of that 4th line (though it seems to be improving) and why it took so long to get Larsen a look.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bohologo:
    One thought on Bryzgalov: is it reasonable to think that he could be trade bait himself at the deadline? Goalies go for a premium then, and maybe the Oilers offload him for something useful then.

    Otherwise, it’s difficult to see this as a trading for Roloson/Ron Low moment.

    I’d be thrilled to be proven wrong, of course.

    That is highly contingent on him playing well (likely? who knows… ask your voodoo doctor) and the Oil being out of the action (very likely)…

    certainly a thought… if he plays well and the Oil are out of touch… he’d have value and MacT would certainly flip for a pick… the anti-Tambo.

  16. mumbai max says:

    Bohologo,

    this is a great point, and a real possibility. bryz could bring
    a decent return at the deadline, if he is anything above bad

  17. Caramel Obvious says:

    On Kopecky, if they could get him cheap I think he’d be a pretty good pickup.

  18. Lowetide says:

    One thing about Bryzgalov, his resume looks very good save for last season which was below average but not terrible. The verbal around him is terrible, but part of that comes from the Flyers, who are even more fucked up than the Oilers (incredibly).

    At this point, anything can happen. If you called me from July and said “Oilers let Dubnyk walk, he signs with Vancouver and Bryzgalov gets a 2-year deal with Edmonton” I wouldn’t be surprised.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Continuing your line of thoughts:

    Here’s my real conundrum:

    Reference:

    http://www.capgeek.com/oilers/

    Stipulation: MacT didn’t need Smid’s cap space to sign Bryz.

    So, let’s suggest two possible avenues:

    1) In the next 2 weeks MacT uses the cap space the Smid deal freed up (he’s got c. 6M according to capgeek) to add players to attempt to right the ship for immediate impact (playoffs this year)

    In this case, the urgency of cap space makes sense.

    2) MacT goes quiet until the deadline or thereabouts and uses the cap space then or more likely in the off-season.

    In this case, clearing the space, acquiring prospects, dumping players outside of current philosophy all make sense as before…

    However, the urgency of the deal is at odds with the Market.

    If MacT doesn’t use his cap space in the near future, he wasted market opportunity to get a higher return on Smid at the deadline and still get coveted cap space for the off-season.

    This deal makes all the sense you suggest… and yet the timing is wrong UNLESS MacT makes another move to use the cap space soon.

  20. GordM says:

    I am going to miss Smid.

    In 2008 I was in California and caught an OT win vs the Sharks (one they didn’t deserve…Gilbert with the OT winner IIRC…Roloson stoll the game). They were coming off back to back wins (LA the previous night via a Schrempf SO winner).

    Ran into the Oilers on what I guess is the equivalent of Whyte Ave. They were flying high after two wins in two nights with I think about 3 days off. Highlight of the night was at the end of the evening when the bars were clearing out. Some drunk chick was all over Smid but he wasn’t buying what she was selling. Finally, in that awesome accent, he tells her “You should go home, it will improve your situation.”. Loved it.

    Sail on Smid!

  21. Lowetide says:

    Rom: As I understand things, if ALL of the performances bonuses were reached the Oilers would actually be over the cap. So, although capgeek does give them lots of dollars in room, it’ll actually be (for the most part) eaten up with bonuses.

    Now. Not all bonuses are reachable and that I don’t know how to detail.

  22. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I have to agree with all of that. I don’t really understand why this trade was made now. It certainly doesn’t help now and I can’t imagine the return would have been less later. The only thing I can think of is that perhaps the Flames are particularly interested now with Giordano’s injury and the Oilers really, really, like Brossoit. That’s discomforting.

    For instance if you really want a young goalie I would have waited and hoped the Kings got some injuries and tried to get their AHL goalie (Jones?) for Smid. He’s a lot closer to the show than Brossoit.

    I think this returns us to they must really like Brossoit.

  23. RMGS says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Continuing on the Smid discussion.I was one of the few to give a qualified defense of the move.It’s a move I would normally hate since it contradicts the maxim to get good players, keep good players.It is also a move that I justified by saying, in effect, that Smid was redundant, an idea I argued was a conceptual impossibility this very week.

    So what could possibly be the good news?What is the big picture?

    1) This tells us that MacT and Eakins are very, very, serious about wanting puck moving, possession defensemen and that is good news.In this sense this is the opposite of the Gilbert trade.This is the good news and shouldn’t be slighted.

    2) The question of why now is a good one.Even if you insist on trading Smid couldn’t you have gotten more for him later.Perhaps, but trades later in the season tend to involve draft picks and draft picks really are magic beans.This tells us that the Oilers really like Brossoit and value hiim more than a second round draft pick.I think they are wrong about this based on the numbers.This is the bad news.The fetishization of Oil Kings.But on the whole I’d rather have players that are closer to playing and might contribute this year or next than a couple of second round picks.And since Smid was never going to get a first round pick I’m not sure you get more by waiting until later.

    So LT is right.The real news is what this tells us about Eakins and MacT and how they evaluate players.Look at Eakins comments about Larsen.He’s basically been their #1D the last two games.That is telling.And since I like the emphasis on speed and skill over grit I’m on board even though the return isn’t great.

    In this sense this is nothing like a Tambo move.This is a very progressive move of a team that might really emphasize things that lead to winning.A good team should have no purely “defensive” defensemen.It does no good to get the puck if you can’t keep the puck.

    I should add that I am looking for the good news here.It is possible I am undervaluing Smid here and if the Oilers don’t use his cap space for something they are worse in the short term.

    I wonder what the comments here would look like had Tambellini made this trade. I doubt there would be this much rationalising.

    Smid – a proven NHL D under 30 years old on a value contract – has more value than a return of two minor leaguers – especially from a divisional rival. Trade him, hell even for picks, but be sure to cash in on his value.

    There’s no problem here if Eakins/MacT dream of a fully mobile D corps. But that dream shouldn’t cloud your judgment about the chips you have.

  24. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    Rom: As I understand things, if ALL of the performances bonuses were reached the Oilers would actually be over the cap. So, although capgeek does give them lots of dollars in room, it’ll actually be (for the most part) eaten up with bonuses.

    Now. Not all bonuses are reachable and that I don’t know how to detail.

    This is predictive of my slowly developing thought (not hard to be ahead of my thinking). Much of the cap space the Oilers have is actually a loan against next year’s cap space, right? At 4-11-2, why would you borrow against next year’s cap space? Am I wrong about this?

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One curious note for LeBrun’s piece on Tallon yesterday:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/27654/dineen-firing-first-of-many-moves-in-florida

    It’s clear near everyone is on the table, what is unclear is what Tallon wants back… roster players? impact roster players? prospects? picks? all/any of the above?

    Is this an offload, tank and continue re-build… or is this a shake things up and try for immediate improvement… or something in between?

  26. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: This is predictive of my slowly developing thought (not hard to be ahead of my thinking).Much of the cap space the Oilers have is actually a loan against next year’s cap space, right?At 4-11-2, why would you borrow against next year’s cap space?Am I wrong about this?

    That’s why they had to make the Smid trade in order to sign Bryz imo. Now, the chances of me being wrong are about 70/30 or so, but to my eye the Oilers have some genuine cap trouble next year if $5M or so of that bonus money falls into next season.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    GordM:
    I am going to miss Smid.

    In 2008 I was in California and caught an OT win vs the Sharks (one they didn’t deserve…Gilbert with the OT winner IIRC…Roloson stoll the game).They were coming off back to back wins (LA the previous night via a Schrempf SO winner).

    Ran into the Oilers on what I guess is the equivalent of Whyte Ave.They were flying high after two wins in two nights with I think about 3 days off.Highlight of the night was at the end of the evening when the bars were clearing out.Some drunk chick was all over Smid but he wasn’t buying what she was selling.Finally, in that awesome accent, he tells her “You should go home, it will improve your situation.”.Loved it.

    Sail on Smid!

    Oh man!

    I love this story. I will place it in my special mental vault of amazing Smid moments.

    In dark, dark times he added a lot of joy for some of us. An original.

  28. denny33 says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Continuing on the Smid discussion. I was one of the few to give a qualified defense of the move. It’s a move I would normally hate since it contradicts the maxim to get good players, keep good players. It is also a move that I justified by saying, in effect, that Smid was redundant, an idea I argued was a conceptual impossibility this very week.

    **********************************************************************************

    You are right – it does directly, boldly, clearly contradict the maxim of getting good players and keeping good players.

    *****************************************************************

    1) This tells us that MacT and Eakins are very, very, serious about wanting puck moving, possession defensemen and that is good news. In this sense this is the opposite of the Gilbert trade. This is the good news and shouldn’t be slighted.

    ***************************************************************************

    Nobody has a problem with the above….nothing to do with giving Smid away.

    As an aside, N Schulz and Anrew Ference are still on the team.

    See your above maxim.

    *************************************************************

    2) The question of why now is a good one. Even if you insist on trading Smid couldn’t you have gotten more for him later. Perhaps, but trades later in the season tend to involve draft picks and draft picks really are magic beans. This tells us that the Oilers really like Brossoit and value hiim more than a second round draft pick. I think they are wrong about this based on the numbers. This is the bad news. The fetishization of Oil Kings. But on the whole I’d rather have players that are closer to playing and might contribute this year or next than a couple of second round picks. And since Smid was never going to get a first round pick I’m not sure you get more by waiting until later.

    ******************************************************************************

    Worst year to be trading an asset – BY FAR.

    The fetish this organization has is duly noted around the league….wonder if Burke / Feaster would have exploited that…..nah….

    *********************************************************************

    So LT is right. The real news is what this tells us about Eakins and MacT and how they evaluate players. Look at Eakins comments about Larsen. He’s basically been their #1D the last two games. That is telling. And since I like the emphasis on speed and skill over grit I’m on board even though the return isn’t great.

    *************************************************************************************

    It does. Will Eakins continue to use N. Schultz on the PK?
    ***************************************************************************************

    In this sense this is nothing like a Tambo move. This is a very progressive move of a team that might really emphasize things that lead to winning. A good team should have no purely “defensive” defensemen. It does no good to get the puck if you can’t keep the puck.

    I should add that I am looking for the good news here. It is possible I am undervaluing Smid here and if the Oilers don’t use his cap space for something they are worse in the short term.

    *************************************************************************************************

    Another person who was okay with the move admitted the oilers received two non-NHL players back….

    Imagine not being able to crack the Flames lineup…..

    Dougalas Murray can’t skate and he garnered two -2nd round picks…..

    This reeks of a Tambo like move….and desparation.

    George Richards of the Miami Herald:

    Final straw for Panther managment was losing to the ‘terrible’ Edmonton OIlers…..management stayed up into the night after that game.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Rom: As I understand things, if ALL of the performances bonuses were reached the Oilers would actually be over the cap. So, although capgeek does give them lots of dollars in room, it’ll actually be (for the most part) eaten up with bonuses.

    Now. Not all bonuses are reachable and that I don’t know how to detail.

    Ah… damn those bonuses!

    All those ELCs, right? (psst… I don’t think Yak is going to hit many of his… cry).

    I guess the balancing act is use the leverage this year and screw the next or what?

    ———
    I’m guessing no one wants to discuss this…

    but, at what point do we wonder about Yak’s extension? if this year is subpar, how far into his extension eligibility do they wait and how can they possibly offer the 6M deal?

  30. icecastles says:

    RMGS: Smid – a proven NHL D under 30 years old on a value contract – has more value than a return of two minor leaguers

    I find myself wondering though, how much value does Smid really have on the open market? He was one of the few bright lights on our D-corps the last few years because
    (a) he (more or less) developed in house and it’s nice to see success with that
    (b) he plays a physical game
    (c) he is a reliable stay-at-home type on a team that had almost no-one else to fit that description.

    However…

    There was major concern until the last year or maybe two that he was overly injury-prone. He has very little offence. Not a requirement of a stay-at-home type but it’s part of the conversation. He’s not a top pairing guy. On a contender, he may not even be top-four, though that’s debatable.

    I liked Smid a lot, and will continue to cheer for him. But I think we’ve grown so attached to him not so much because he is particularly special, but simply because the rest of the defense was so bad for so long. The guys coming behind him will eventually push him aside, and if the playoffs are a distant bell this season, it makes sense to either
    (1) Make room for a true top-pairing D, or
    (2) Give the minutes to guys who will benefit from the development and are part of the long-term solution.

  31. bookje says:

    So, cap space is bankable?

    Bonuses only count against the cap if they are paid out?

    If you overspend the cap on bonuses, you can use banked cap space and/or push the cost to next year?

    Just trying to understand what you mean by borrowing against next year.

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: I think this returns us to they must really like Brossoit.

    Not to mention… they really aren’t comfortable with Roy, Bunz and Tou!

  33. bookje says:

    Also for the record, I hate Smid – the guy is a Flame, I have to hate him.

  34. Lowetide says:

    bookje:
    So, cap space is bankable?

    Bonuses only count against the cap if they are paid out?

    If you overspend the cap on bonuses, you can use banked cap space and/or push the cost to next year?

    Just trying to understand what you mean by borrowing against next year.

    Basically, the Oilers are responsible for salary cap plus bonus this year. IF everyone gets paid complete bonus, they’ll be over the cap. THAT overage would be applied to next season (if I am correct).

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    bookje:
    So, cap space is bankable?

    Bonuses only count against the cap if they are paid out?

    If you overspend the cap on bonuses, you can use banked cap space and/or push the cost to next year?

    Just trying to understand what you mean by borrowing against next year.

    http://www.capgeek.com/faq/how-do-performance-bonuses-count-against-the-cap

  36. icecastles says:

    denny33: As an aside, N Schulz and Anrew Ference are still on the team.

    Someone has to want them, and be willing to give up something the Oilers want. I don’t understand fans who think we should (warning: hyperbole ahead) trade Pekham for Chara and be pissed that mgmt doesn’t do it.

    This reeks of a Tambo like move…

    Not sure those two things have much room for overlap. Tambo was known for dithering, waiting and assessing, not for for making big risky moves.

    ….and desparation.

    As to desperation… Our goaltending is floating around something like .885. In a year we were supposed to contend for a playoff spot, we are effectively out of the playoffs a month into the season. Some desperation is warranted.

  37. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: That’s why they had to make the Smid trade in order to sign Bryz imo. Now, the chances of me being wrong are about 70/30 or so, but to my eye the Oilers have some genuine cap trouble next year if $5M or so of that bonus money falls into next season.

    Agreed but 2 players with a bonus are Yak & J. Schultz and the way there going may not see any bonus at all . The one who probably will is RNH .I still expect a 3 for 1 as we do have assets on the blue but I agree they can’t handle a minus $$# next year as RNH jumps to 6mil .They need to be as close to $ 60 mil this year .

  38. kooler says:

    Ben,

    After a bold trade announcement at noon….Simmonds for Hemsky.

  39. RMGS says:

    icecastles: I liked Smid a lot, and will continue to cheer for him. But I think we’ve grown so attached to him not so much because he is particularly special, but simply because the rest of the defense was so bad for so long. The guys coming behind him will eventually push him aside, and if the playoffs are a distant bell this season, it makes sense to either
    (1) Make room for a true top-pairing D, or
    (2) Give the minutes to guys who will benefit from the development and are part of the long-term solution.

    Notwithstanding that developing 20-year old defencemen on a shitty NHL team is a horrible idea, if prospect development is part of the equation here (in a lost season), then why bring in Bryzgalov?

    Also, it’s not about some emotional attachment to “the warrior” Smid. He was likely one of their better trade chips. But that’s the point. Just look at what washed up defencemen garner at the trade deadline.

    No problem with trading Smid here – just frustrated that the Oilers obtained such a poor return.

  40. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: That’s why they had to make the Smid trade in order to sign Bryz imo. Now, the chances of me being wrong are about 70/30 or so, but to my eye the Oilers have some genuine cap trouble next year if $5M or so of that bonus money falls into next season.

    Wait… now having the old brain slide down this slip-n-slide one more time…

    The bonuses are calculated at the end of the year, right?

    If we go over, it affects next year, right?

    So… theoretically we need to be well clear of the cap limit to save ourselves trouble for next season.

    That means we do need cap relief to sign Bryz.

    Ok. I get that now.

    HOWEVER…

    It doesn’t explain why we would need to gain that cap relief now.

    Unless I’m missing something, we could have traded Smid’s contract at the deadline and gotten the same cap relief for bonuses at the end of the season?

    So… this reasoning doesn’t add up either and we’re back to either:

    1) another trade is coming, or

    2) this deal didn’t leverage the market efficiently.

  41. RMGS says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: 1) another trade is coming, or

    2) this deal didn’t leverage the market efficiently.

    Thing is, they’re not mutually exclusive.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Wait… now having the old brain slide down this slip-n-slide one more time…

    The bonuses are calculated at the end of the year, right?

    If we go over, it affects next year, right?

    So… theoretically we need to be well clear of the cap limit to save ourselves trouble for next season.

    That means we do need cap relief to sign Bryz.

    Ok. I get that now.

    HOWEVER…

    It doesn’t explain why we would need to gain that cap relief now.

    Unless I’m missing something, we could have traded Smid’s contract at the deadline and gotten the same cap relief for bonuses at the end of the season?

    So… this reasoning doesn’t add up either and we’re back to either:

    1) another trade is coming, or

    2) this deal didn’t leverage the market efficiently.

    Well, and Rom I’m way off the blacktop now and playing jazz piano with Miles Davis and way out of my league here, I don’t know if the NHL has any rules about “attainable” bonus dollars and keeping that as part of your ceiling.

    There’s so much to know. If the Oilers have decided to go conservative so as to make sure they’re breathing clean air next season, I’m fine with it.

    If they didn’t NEED to move Smid in order to sign the goalie, then another trade is coming. There’s no middle ground here imo.

  43. Maverick says:

    Morning Fellas,
    It’s been a while. Couple thoughts. Smid trade = Meh. MacT didn’t like the contract, Smid didn’t move the puck as quickly as they would like. Out of the defense available, it was either Smid or Nick Schultz, Smid had more value. Lose the toughness and the character but the Oilers are a bad team, something had to give.

    The “nutty” goaltender signing (Bryzgalov) can’t be any worse than LaBarbera has been, good gamble, at a pro rated $1.75M and real money $1.4 million contract, why not. Not much out there for MacT to pursue without giving up a roster player, just costed Katz money.

    As for the Cap and bonus, here is a great Cap Geek breakdown of the Oilers roster and contracts and usage so far this season. Man, does that Ryan Jones contract look bad now.
    http://www.capgeek.com/oilers/tracker

    Anyways,
    Cheers.

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Barons makes 14 transactions this week. Lordy
    http://www.okcbarons.com/index.cfm?fa=GameNotes&ra=showarticle&guid=482EB7BE-DA6E-478E-9019-EBBCB4CA047B&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Trust in the Nelson to sort this mess out. He’s done it before.

    “Who are you? What’s your name?”
    “Denis.”
    “Denis? Honey! Who is this?”
    “That’s your nephew.”
    “What are running a restaurant?”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6Ri2kr8xJU

    “Who are you?”
    “Nathan Deck”
    “Go play D, Nathan”

  45. stevezie says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    You speak for both of us, except I think pure grit, defensive D-men are usually pretty useful on the penalty kill. Ideally everyone is good at everything, but practically most teams will have one Justin Schultz, one or two Ladi Smids.

    The thing about the trade I don’t understand has nothing to do with the trade, or the signing. I’m am curious how a team with as many good young goalies as Anaheim has and a team with as many good young goalies as Edmonton has couldn’t find a deal. Were they that averse to trading within the division, or do they want to keep everyone until they’re sure who to run with?

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I’m way off the blacktop now and playing jazz piano with Miles Davis and way out of my league here

    Ha!

    Well, we’re all just trying to keep up when playing with that guy…

    Speaking of Davis and piano… though he never played with him, Davis credited pianist Ahmad Jamal with being highly influential on the style of Davis’ play:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Jamal

    My favorite of his:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU1hm7KlfT8

  47. stevezie says:

    GordM,

    My favourite Smid story also involves his classy behaviour at a bar. My friend, a moderately attractive young woman, was out at Cowboys in Edmonton one night and made friends with some drunk guy. He had been separated from his friends and she lived not too far so she said he could sleep on her couch rather than wait for a cab at that busy hour.

    In the morning Lady Smid politely thanked her for her hospitality.

  48. godot10 says:

    Went out just before the trade and signing last night.

    Thoughts:

    1) Smid was history the moment Ference signed for 4-years with a full no move. They both play the same position on a good team. 3rd pairing LD I thought Smid might have lasted till the end of next season. Belov/Nurse/Klefbom/Marincin/Simpson accelerated the timetable. Smid is a better defensemen than Andrew Ference.

    2) Smid’s trade value was clearly not maximized. It was a trade for positioning. A rook for a bishop and a bunch of pawns, where you believe it leaves you in better position on the board.

    3) Tambellini would have been crucified for this trade.

    4) Sucks that it is the Flames. Now not just Lowetide will hate Smid. MacT always hated Smid. Now all of us will grow to. I don’t have to hate Paajarvi in St. Louis.

    5) Horak hopefully means that Will Acton is not long for the team. Great that he can play centre. Nothing wrong with tweeners, and tweener depth. Helps both the big club and the farm. Sometimes (Arcobello) they surprise you. They are cheap.

    6) The Flames have to be extremely happy. They bought Smid low. He can be a useful player, and they can probably trade him high if they need to down the road. They got an actual NHL defensemen on a good contract.

    7) Goalie auditions are open.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Here’s another example of what happens with organizations when they bring in a new GM: the drafted prospects are often flushed quickly. Consider the 2009 draft:

    #10 Magnus Paajarvi: Dealt by MacT
    #41 Anton Lander: In the minors, doubt he’s long term
    #71 Troy Hesketh: never made it out of high school as a prospect
    #82 Cameron Abney: as soon as his contract runs out, he runs out as an Oiler
    #99 Kyle Bigos: Dealt by MacT
    #101 Toni Rajala: MacT walked away
    #133 Olivier Roy: Dealt by MacT

    Now, here’s the other side of that: MACT’S draft picks will probably get signed when they don’t earn it, will probably linger forever and we may see players underserving getting second contracts. THAT will be the test–can MacT be as ruthless with his own kids? If he can, the Oilers will have returned to the days of Glen Sather, who would back over you in the parking lot if you weren’t a player.

  50. thejonrmcleod says:

    I’d also settle for Joe Thorton.

  51. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Unless I’m missing something, we could have traded Smid’s contract at the deadline and gotten the same cap relief for bonuses at the end of the season?

    I don’t believe that this is the case, although I am nowhere near expert at this. I believe the cap hit is prorated by game (or perhaps by day during the season), so the longer the player stays on your roster, the higher the cap hit against you. I think this explains why contenders wait as long as they can (trade deadline day) before acquiring the pieces they want for the playoffs – ie, to reduce the cap hit.

  52. Lowetide says:

    stevezie:
    GordM,

    My favourite Smid story also involves his classy behaviour at a bar. My friend, a moderately attractive young woman, was out at Cowboys in Edmonton one night and made friends with some drunk guy. He had been separated from his friends and she lived not too far so she said he could sleep on her couch rather than wait for a cab at that busy hour.

    In the morning Lady Smid politely thanked her for her hospitality.

    Here’s the great thing about being a guy. I read “moderately attractive” and begin thinking about what that might look like, and have decided that she’s pretty hot.

  53. theres oil in virginia says:

    stevezie: In the morning Lady Smid politely thanked her for her hospitality.

    “Lady Smid”! The guy hasn’t even played his first game with the Flames and you’re already trashing him! Heh.

  54. Caramel Obvious says:

    theres oil in virginia: I don’t believe that this is the case, although I am nowhere near expert at this.I believe the cap hit is prorated by game (or perhaps by day during the season), so the longer the player stays on your roster, the higher the cap hit against you.I think this explains why contenders wait as long as they can (trade deadline day) before acquiring the pieces they want for the playoffs – ie, to reduce the cap hit.

    This is correct.

    Also, I mostly agree with Godot’s post. Strange days.

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia: I don’t believe that this is the case, although I am nowhere near expert at this.I believe the cap hit is prorated by game (or perhaps by day during the season), so the longer the player stays on your roster, the higher the cap hit against you.I think this explains why contenders wait as long as they can (trade deadline day) before acquiring the pieces they want for the playoffs – ie, to reduce the cap hit.

    Hmmm… that’s certainly plausible and I think what LT is alluding to above…

    I’ll bow out until someone offers a definitive (or approaching) answer.

    At any rate, I agree with CO’s basic premise that this deal makes sense… it’s just emotional because Smid and the timing/return still seems sub-optimal to me.

  56. Mr DeBakey says:

    “Smid is a better defensemen than Andrew Ference, but lacks the cup rings.”

    There
    finished the thought for you.

  57. Lois Lowe says:

    At least LT can finally hate Smid in good conscience now.

  58. Good-Natured Locomotive says:

    “Tim Panaccio ‏@tpanotchCSN 12m
    ever have a feeling of impending “trade” in the air? we all feel today at Wells Fargo Center”

    Wishful thinking:
    Gags, Hemsky, Marincin, 2014 1st
    for Simmonds, B Schenn, L. Schenn/Meszaros (salary dump)

  59. DeadmanWaking says:

    Asset management:

    Getting the best possible value at the last possible moment, then rolling into the Hunt for Ready October once again not really knowing what you have. Then when the fans are braying in mid-November, the monthly payment plan begins.

    With the new conference alignment, Calgary is half the rival it once was.

    For a long time the chess programs were sneered at by the elite players because chess programs always practiced asset management. No one gained the upper hand in assets until the program noticed “Yikes! I’m actually losing! Ten plies down, things are going to get ugly.” Then the love of assets would turn into a furious yard sale to delay the inevitable–another traditional strength of chess software.

    Eventually the programs were tweaked to put a bit more emphasis on mobile puck moving defensemen–screw the assets–and then the writing was on the wall. These programs started to make actual chess moves in the view of chess grandmasters. Go ahead, waste a tempo picking off my loose pawn while I cross the Delaware.

    If Smid’s game simply wasn’t built for Eakins’ system, he was a depreciating asset anyway.

    Once you finally announce “Checkmate!” all those assets carefully coddled are no great boon to your reputation. Only the eight year old beating up on his kid brother gloats in possession of multiple queens. Assets are merely a means to an end, which the elite player rarely delays.

    MacT has bought himself a tempo to accelerate building a team identity–and belief in that identity–before the curtain rises on the next campaign.

    Now we need a full court press from MacT and Eakins to convert that tempo into a tangible intangible.

    After the auction years, we’re twenty times bitten forty times shy. Wrong filter.

    Supposing the group begins to gel by the end of the season, the narrative will be that this group was maturing and would have gelled anyway–look how much further we’d be if we had what we presume Smid would have returned in the off season.

    Many people took for granted how well Hall and RNH adapted to the NHL game. Of course, they were number one picks, how could it have been any other way? It had nothing to do with the tutelage of our soup to nuts dirty Russian (king of all trades, master of none).

    What you end up with is a transaction bias. Tangible assets are exchanged in sharp transactions. Intangible assets wax and wane. We have to keep repeating to ourselves that “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush” precisely because we’re wired to regard waxing as just deserts (no credit deserved).

    On the chessboard, an assert is just a raptor prowling the weeds–as three decades of chess software leaned the hard way. You don’t actually have a bird from hand until mobilized to flocculate and swarm as the crow cackles.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    You know that trade that we are always talking, not the 3 for 1, but the one were we get an NHL player for magic beans. We just did the opposite.

  61. icecastles says:

    RMGS: Also, it’s not about some emotional attachment to “the warrior” Smid. He was likely one of their better trade chips. But that’s the point. Just look at what washed up defencemen garner at the trade deadline.

    Fair point. I’m a big Broissoit fan, but I was a bit taken aback to see his actual stats. They should have been able to do better. :(

  62. Fixall with Rexall says:

    Soooo…. I understand potential bonuses might hurt us next year. What I don’t understand is how is it possible anybody reaches a bonus on a near last place team when just about the entire team is underperforming. How easy are these bonuses to hit? Are these attendance bonuses? Can’t be production or performance based because if so, dude, spend the money.

    My brother has been saving for my nephew to go to college for about 16 years, he realizes pretty soon he will get to buy a boat.

  63. FastOil says:

    So they have traded a younger decent big, tough NHL defenseman on a favourable contract for later round non NHL players, and signed an unemployable, whacked, buy out rich goalie for 1.75M.

    What’s not to like?

    Why did MacT get himself up to the cap this summer with marginal players if the cap was going to be a problem? Maybe Ricky O doesn’t quite get it?

  64. Gret99zky says:

    “We’ll see a lot more of this in the summer, Oilers have 13 free agents and I bet MacT signs only a couple (Belov, possibly Dubnyk and Hemsky).”

    Yup. Sign UFA Hemsky for $5M per year or watch him go to another team for $2M.

    Dubnyk has seen the last of big money. Hopefully he and his wife (and new baby) stashed his two year winfall in a nice safe place with compound interest.

    Best Sign Belov ASAP. The Smid trade increased his asking price.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    We’ll see a lot more of this in the summer, Oilers have 13 free agents and I bet MacT signs only a couple (Belov, possibly Dubnyk and Hemsky).


    Yup.Sign UFA Hemsky for $5M per year or watch him go to another team for $2M.

    Dubnyk has seen the last of big money.Hopefully he and his wife (and new baby) stashed his two year winfall in a nice safe place with compound interest.

    Best Sign Belov ASAP.The Smid trade increased his asking price.

    So, you think Hemsky gets $2M in free agency in the summer?

  66. Caramel Obvious says:

    Good-Natured Locomotive:
    “Tim Panaccio ‏@tpanotchCSN 12m
    ever have a feeling of impending “trade” in the air? we all feel today at Wells Fargo Center”

    Wishful thinking:
    Gags, Hemsky, Marincin, 2014 1st
    for Simmonds, B Schenn, L. Schenn/Meszaros (salary dump)

    This goes back to yesterday’s discussion prior to the Smid trade. Couturier is a much better player than Schenn. They had comparable offensive numbers over the course of their career (Schenn’s slightly better) but Schenn is a year and a half older and played in much better offensive situations (zone starts, powerplay time).

    Simply put Couturier is clearly the better player right now and is a year and a half younger. Better now, more upside, that’s the difference between Couturier and Schenn.

    But we aren’t getting either Couturier or B. Schenn for Hemsky. The key will be avoiding L. Schenn who is terrible.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “We’ll see a lot more of this in the summer, Oilers have 13 free agents and I bet MacT signs only a couple (Belov, possibly Dubnyk and Hemsky).”

    I think Eakins probably sees in Petry what we see… I’d place him in the probable sign camp.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: But we aren’t getting either Couturier or B. Schenn for Hemsky. The key will be avoiding L. Schenn who is terrible.

    We have a compliance buyout left, right?

    If Katz is on board, it would be an interesting GM move to take a solid player with a poison pill and let Katz eat it.

  69. Andy P says:

    I think MacT are the most talented pair we have had in a long, long time, but on the other hand, not saying much. :)
    But to my addled mind here’s how the whole thing breaks out:

    1) Hiring UFA Bryzgalov
    Tells us that MacT is not prepared to sit on his hands in the hope that DD stops underperforming soon. Gives us the option of pairing any 2 of Bryz, DD, and BTO. Allows us to release LaBarb or send him down. Roster upgrade.
    2) Hiring UFA Chet Pickard
    Nashville reclamation project, puts a potentially good goalie into an empty pipeline. As such, a roster upgrade.
    3) Trading Roy for Brossoit
    I saw Roy bad in the pre-season, and we all know MacT wanted Brossoit. Roster upgrade.
    4) Trading Smid for Horak, Roster space, contract space and cap space, makes space for a player like Larsen or Fedun, who beter fit MacT’s new mould for the D.
    Player for player roster downgrade, but enabled us to get Brossoit, with contract and cap space benefits, will likely become an upgrade when the other shoe drops, perhaps after the Philly game, perhaps in the offseason. Or, as LT mentioned before I started this comment then went off to do other things…. this may be to reduce the borrowing against the 2014 cap.

    Overall a good set of transactions for the Oil.

  70. ashley says:

    I’m often one to defend a trade since most trades in the NHL are lateral, but due to our homer bias we expect to walk away the trade winner on day 1, as evidenced by the unrealistic trades we often propose.

    However, I think the Oilers didn’t do very well here. They’re making a bet on a marginal 4th liner with a low ceiling if he has a career, and a goalie prospect which is as useful as a 3rd round draft pick. For that, they give up one of the fastest Dmen in the game. He’s big, he’s rough, and he’s not lazy. He brings everything every shift. He may not always make the right decision, but over the years he has become a very useful NHL player.

    We give up a real NHL player and get nothing of the same in return. This from a team who identified the blue as a problem. Our team is worse today than it was yesterday. That can be ok if the team looks to be better at some point in the future than it otherwise would have been. I don’t see how we can say that.

    This was not a lateral move. The Oilers lose this trade right from day 1.

  71. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “We’ll see a lot more of this in the summer, Oilers have 13 free agents and I bet MacT signs only a couple (Belov, possibly Dubnyk and Hemsky).”

    I think Eakins probably sees in Petry what we see… I’d place him in the probable sign camp.

    Petry is an RFA, these are UFA’s. the RFA list is pretty funky (Petry, Arco, Larsen, Fedun) even before we get to Justin Schultz.

  72. Andy P says:

    RMGS,

    I think we got fair value in that trade: While Smid >>>Horak, Brossoit >Roy, Roster, cap and contract space >> status quo with a packed roster.

  73. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Petry is an RFA, these are UFA’s. the RFA list is pretty funky (Petry, Arco, Larsen, Fedun) even before we get to Justin Schultz.

    Ah… sorry I saw “free agents” and didn’t do the math…

    hmm… I think all of them have a chance here.

  74. wheatnoil says:

    Fixall with Rexall:
    Soooo…. I understand potential bonusesmight hurt us next year. What I don’t understand is how is it possible anybody reaches a bonus on a near last place team when just about the entire team is underperforming. How easy are these bonuses to hit? Are these attendance bonuses? Can’t be production or performance based because if so, dude, spend the money.

    My brother has been saving for my nephew to go to college for about 16 years, he realizes pretty soon he will get to buy a boat.

    http://www.capgeek.com/faq/how-do-entry-level-contracts-work

    Performance bonuses are divided into Schedule A or Schedule B.

    The max you can get from Schedule A bonuses is $850K. The league has a minimum level set in order to hit each bonus within schedule A. The exact amount per bonus and which individual categories are included are determined by each individual contract, but you can’t get more than $225K per bonus. Examples for forwards include goals: min 20, +/-: top 3 on club, icetime: top 6 among forwards, and more (follow the link above for the full list).

    The max you can get from Schedule B bonuses is $2 million. This is where the big money comes. We don’t know what are in Yak, Schultz, and Nuge’s contract. However these big money schedule B bonuses usually come from finishing in the top 5 in Hart Trophy nominations, top 10 in goals, assists, points, or points/game in the NHL, winning the Conn Smythe, top 5 in Calder trophy nominations, etc. At this point, I would say it’s unlikely that any of Yak, Schultz, and Nuge will hit these bonuses, but we don’t know the specifics in the contracts. Schultz may be in the top 10 in the league in defensemen assists and that may get him a bonus. I don’t know. Either way, Yak is probably not going to hit one of these at this point, so that saves the Oilers $2 million at the end of the year.

    In all, the chance of the Oilers maxing out on performance bonuses are slim to none. However, the exact amount they’ll have to pay out at the end of the year… that’ll depend on the specifics in the contracts, which we are not privy to. We know the minimums for Schedule A bonuses (follow the link above). We know what Evgeni Malkin’s Schedule B bonuses were in his entry level contract (it’s on the internet somewhere, I’ve forgotten the link). Everything from there is conjecture.

    The Oilers can go 7.5% above the cap in potential bonuses, but at the end of the year, once all the bonuses that are actually paid are added up, if they are over the cap, they get penalized next year by the amount they went over this year.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Ah… sorry I saw “free agents” and didn’t do the math…

    hmm… I think all of them have a chance here.

    Yes, agreed. Justin Schultz’s negotiations might be a little difficult because he’s not worth a monster deal and yet that’s probably his expectation.

  76. VanOil says:

    Ilya Bryzgalov is crazy he may be a wrecking ball on this unstable team. The question is:

    Do we get the crazy good, women with there clothes on that you fall in love with, Walk of the Earth version: http://youtu.be/BHF0gsRsNBw

    Or do we get the Miley, girl trying to figure out how to be a women version, that you just want to lend your jacket to: http://youtu.be/My2FRPA3Gf8

  77. Lowetide says:

    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola 1m

    Watching line rushes in warm up, looks like: 57-93-14. 4-89-83. 6-27-26. 20-94-64 is what EDM will go with.

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola 1m

    Watching line rushes in warm up, looks like: 57-93-14. 4-89-83. 6-27-26. 20-94-64 is what EDM will go with.

    So no 26-27-28 line?

  79. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: So, you think Hemsky gets $2M in free agency in the summer?

    Depends on the team. He may take a discount on a one year deal with a successful team to see what winning feels like.

    The Oilers will give him at least $1M more than any other team. If he likes money staying in Edmonton is his best bet.

  80. B.C.B says:

    I think Hemsky gets at least 3.5 million for two or three seasons. The reason why he is an NHL player that can bring offense. Without looking at counting numbers of any kind, just reputation here is the 2014 UFA rightwing free agents:

    Gaborik, iginla, Alfredsson, Jagr (two of make it to free agency . . . the rest retire or resign . . . any guess?)
    Callahan, Setoguchi, Stempniak, Kulemin, Gionta, Vrbata, Moss, and Hemsky are the other real NHL players that play right wing and not terrible. Unless one of them is taking a hometown discount or named David, each and everyone is likely to get 3.5 million a season for two or more seasons. most likely more than that for folks like Callahan.

  81. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola 1m

    Watching line rushes in warm up, looks like: 57-93-14. 4-89-83. 6-27-26. 20-94-64 is what EDM will go with.

    I don’t mind that at all.

    Move up 64 if he’s going.

    Don’t play him against better NHLers with 89 as his C because its a disaster.

    Jones scratched.

    Nope, don’t mind that at all.

  82. pboy says:

    Lowetide:
    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola 1m

    Watching line rushes in warm up, looks like: 57-93-14. 4-89-83. 6-27-26. 20-94-64 is what EDM will go with.

    It’s about fucking time. That’s the best group of forwards the Oilers have ran out it almost a decade.

  83. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide:
    Tom Gazzola ‏@TomGazzola 1m

    Watching line rushes in warm up, looks like: 57-93-14. 4-89-83. 6-27-26. 20-94-64 is what EDM will go with.

    That actually looks like a 4th line they could play more than 4 minutes if they sub Gazdic out for Perron/Hall/Joensuu for the extra shifts.

  84. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Well Hungary is much better. That Romanian team is terrified of handling the puck.

    Hungary isn’t great, but it seems like they have a player or two that can make/take a pass… all that ice space and barely any pressure helps.

  85. Chris says:

    Well I think everyone’s view of this trade is slightly coloured by their perception of the team at this current juncture in time. If we look at the team’s numbers possession wise, expected goals for and against as has been done, its rather clear right now that this team is being hamstrung by spectacularly bad goaltending.

    MacT dealt with this once before back in 2005-2006 and he clearly isn’t going to wait till the dead line to deal with it again. Of the goaltending options readily available Bryzgalov is probably had at the least cost to the Oilers. Now is Bryzgalov rebounding a particularly good bet? It seems even money. He has a track record but his off ice antics are youtube legend.

    However, I think we should take some comfort that our GM for the first time in the past half a dozen years stared at a gaping wound in the franchise and responded with “Shit maybe I should try and fix that.” As opposed to “Hmm lets see how this plays out”. This is a mediocre team being undermined by aweful goaltending. Consequently the biggest potential improvement we could make to this team right now is bringing in average goaltending. Not even good or great goaltending just average would be a leap forward that would be worth 4 additional wins already this year.

    As for Smid as much as I’ve enjoyed watching him play he seemed off last year and this year as well. His ability to clear the defensive zone of late has been extremely suspect. Clearly he wasn’t in management’s long term plans and there are at least many options available to the Oilers on defense that are near current replacement value. I also think that too many of us are thinking of the usefulness of the Smid of two years ago as opposed to the last 70 games. As much as Bryzgalov is a question mark, he has the potential to make a much more positive impact on the team than leaving Smid in the line up and rolling with our current group of players.

  86. VanOil says:

    Games this early in the morning are all kinds of wrong for me but how can you pass up this potential train wreck. I have no idea who is going to win but I highly doubt it will be a scoreless draw. Will the teams swap chances, turnovers, truculence and baffling gaffs? Yes, probably all of them.

  87. art vandelay says:

    The spike on the L side of the graph is not the same as the spike on the R side b/c….Gretzky.
    Also: Barry Fraser. Genius. /satire

  88. Lowetide says:

    art vandelay:
    The spike on the L side of the graph is not the same as the spike on the R side b/c….Gretzky.
    Also: Barry Fraser. Genius. /satire

    Hi ART!

  89. stevezie says:

    Caramel Obvious: This is correct.

    Also, I mostly agree with Godot’s post.Strange days.

    I noticed this too. Unique.

    I think Godot nailed the key to Smid’s trade when he compared Laddi to Ference. Some may like the one, others may like t’other, but it’s kind of a toss up. The point is we have too many D who are roughly as good as each other.

    Smid would not have been my pick to go, and I don’t love the return, but I accept that someone had to go. The idea that Fedun isn’t so much “better” than Smid but a better fit for Eakins also makes sense to me.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I don’t mind that at all.

    Move up 64 if he’s going.

    Don’t play him against better NHLers with 89 as his C because its a disaster.

    Jones scratched.

    Nope, don’t mind that at all.

    Why do you hate Jones, WG? :-)

    Seriously, we have to come up with something now that Laddy’s been dealt (I knew he was going the moment I started liking him. Sorry, everyone).

    I think Gagner is the obvious choice now, his NTC rests uneasy. Hemsky is also a candidate but it’s going to hurt too much to be funny when he leaves.

    Petry? We could just be silly and use Omark, but they’ll never lose that guy.

  91. Woodguy says:

    I agree the return on Smid is underwhelming.

    I think is a combination of organizational panic that they don’t have a G in the system who looks like a future NHLer and organizational love for Brossoit.

    G and F in terms of prospects are both organizational needs.

  92. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ge ready for a very physical game

  93. thejonrmcleod says:

    So have today’s lines been confirmed?

  94. wheatnoil says:

    I think the healthy scratch of Acton in favor of playing Smyth out of position may be a tell that the Oilers plan on bringing Horak up to play 4C. Could be as soon as tomorrow.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Why do you hate Jones, WG?

    Seriously, we have to come up with something now that Laddy’s been dealt (I knew he was going the moment I started liking him. Sorry, everyone).

    I think Gagner is the obvious choice now, his NTC rests uneasy. Hemsky is also a candidate but it’s going to hurt too much to be funny when he leaves.

    Petry? We could just be silly and use Omark, but they’ll never lose that guy.

    1) because he’s not good

    2) It Eberle. MacT rarely mentions him when talking about the core players (he mentions Gagner “at center or on the wing”)

    I think MacT sees Eberle as an overpay too.

    Maybe Hemsky, but the coach loves him.

    I’d see if I could get Hemsky for 3 years at $3MM per

  96. VanOil says:

    Shocker, the Philly feed is unsure if Bryzgalov is a good fit for the Oilers.

  97. Lowetide says:

    I hope we get the good Joensuu. Even saying that it tells me this has been a crazy season. I’m still back at game 1

  98. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: 1) because he’s not good

    2) It Eberle. MacT rarely mentions him when talking about the core players (he mentions Gagner “at center or on the wing”)

    I think MacT sees Eberle as an overpay too.

    Maybe Hemsky, but the coach loves him.

    I’d see if I could get Hemsky for 3 years at $3MM per

    Trading Eberle would be a tough sell imo. If MacT does it, he better get something insane back.

  99. nycoil says:

    I can only conclude I must be a masochist. It’s a beautiful fall day here and I am going to one of the Philly bars in town to watch these two lottery teams play instead. Is it too early to start drinking?

  100. Chris says:

    Eberle for magic beans may actually start a riot on Whyte ave.

  101. Lowetide says:

    nycoil:
    I can only conclude I must be a masochist. It’s a beautiful fall day here and I am going to one of the Philly bars in town to watch these two lottery teams play instead. Is it too early to start drinking?

    NO! (drinks!)

  102. Chris says:

    Christ they flashed Dubnyk’s GAA as just under 4. Let me reiterate bring on the Crazy Russian.

  103. Lowetide says:

    Flyers coach looks just like they did in the 1970′s.

  104. Pablo Aimar says:

    RMGS: I wonder what the comments here would look like had Tambellini made this trade.I doubt there would be this much rationalising.

    What were the comments like after Tambellini traded Gilbert because Petry had apparently made him redundant? At least he got an actual NHL player instead of a pile of nothing. Total joke of a move.

  105. VanOil says:

    Coach says “Yak use your team mates more”

    Coach gives him Gadzook to pass too.

    Funny, like Belanger Funny for the the young guy?

  106. Lowetide says:

    Well, if they go back to a 2 enforcer 4line we’ll know they love Draisatl a lot.

  107. wheatnoil says:

    That’s actually a reasonably exciting first few minutes.

  108. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Well, if they go back to a 2 enforcer 4line we’ll know they love Draisatl a lot.

    I love Draisaitl a lot!

  109. VanOil says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed. I also forgot how much Perron and Joensuu change the look of this team.

  110. theres oil in virginia says:

    Oh nice, Belov showing that he *can* replace Smid!

  111. VanOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I love Draisaitl a lot!

    Can we just call him the German Gretzky it is not an unreasonable expectation to place on him at all and it is easier to spell.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Saw Gagner good on the back check and broke up a chance in the slot.

    Unicorns.

  113. Lowetide says:

    1-0 flyers, Rosehill on a nice 4line shift. Oilers had the edge to that point by my eye, but that big line worked over the N Schultz-Fedun pairing and Gordon line for an extended period.

  114. russ99 says:

    Aw shiznit. Just when Dubnyk looks like he’s doing better, redirection goal from distance, his Achilles heel.

    Also – that Barons transactions page: Mario Lamoureux is the funniest minor league hockey name since Kyle Lafranchise.

    He’s like the lame Mario Lemieux…

  115. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    So, I guess we aren’t getting any calls today.

    Also, Philly seemed to come out of that PP with a lot of purpose.

  116. VanOil says:

    Starting the 4th line to teach’em a lesson after a goal against is my least favorite Eakins tactic.

  117. Chris says:

    Weak goal by Dubnyk.

  118. hunter1909 says:

    Chris:
    Weak goal by Dubnyk.

    It’s early.

  119. Chris says:

    Gadznik makes me wish Sortini had been better at punching people in the face.

  120. Lucinius says:

    I missed the first 13 or so minutes and have still see 6 non-calls on the Flyers.

  121. Lowetide says:

    2-0 Flyers, Hartnell off a nice pass. Oilers came out nicely but they’re lost now.

  122. Chris says:

    Seriously? Fuck we are getting Saloed again.

  123. hunter1909 says:

    “Let’s trade our longest serving defenceman to Calgary, because Devan Dubnyk is a shit goalie.”

  124. icecastles says:

    Stuck listening on Ched so I’m not seeing the goals. Nevertheless… fuck you, Devan Dubnyk.

    Also, where was Smid on that play? Nowhere in sight, that’s where. Good riddance.

  125. Lucinius says:

    Also, not surprised at the score; Oilers don’t do well in afternoon games.

  126. russ99 says:

    Can we bring in Bryz for the second period?

  127. Chris says:

    Apparently Dubynk not Eberle is the slump buster on this team, unfortunately its for everyone not in an Oilers jersey.

  128. VanOil says:

    I am sure that the Oilers have played with the lead this year. Statistically it must of happened.

    I am not sure if they have played with a convincing lead this year though. At least one that convinced me.

  129. Scotty LaDouche says:

    I felt great sadness watching Dubnyks head drop after that goal. We are watching somones dream in life slip through their fingers.

  130. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    SN needs to stop citing useless, contextless “road stats” on this team.

    Draisaitl is going to be great.

    Belov/Larsen looks pretty good.

    Hall likes to play hockey. Not sure about the rest. I think they are all raking leaves in a cool Autumn breeze somewhere.

  131. hunter1909 says:

    In time they’re going to say how Dubnyk’s career died because the new rules took his oversized padding away. But for now, he’s just a bad goalie lol

  132. Lowetide says:

    I think the coverage is more of a problem than Dubnyk, certainly on that second goal. Who was the high winger there?

  133. fuzzy muppet says:

    Nothing cure s a league worst offense like Devan Dubnyk.

    I’m expecting them to give-up now. Hope they prove me worng

  134. hunter1909 says:

    Scotty LaDouche:
    I felt great sadness watching Dubnyks head drop after that goal. We are watching somones dream in life slip through their fingers.

    I know.

    I’d feel a whole lot better if instead, that was his head dropping into a basket – on a guillotine.

  135. Pablo Aimar says:

    Can’t blame Dubnyk on that second goal. D coverage is brutal.

  136. Chris says:

    They showed the shot, Dubnyk had a clean look at it. He just got beat plain. He is not making enough saves to play at a replacement NHL level now. Goalies are weird. Whether its the padding change, or its all in Dubnyk’s head and his mental game has gone screwy…doesn’t matter. He’s just a broken man in net right now.

  137. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    I think the coverage is more of a problem than Dubnyk, certainly on that second goal. Who was the high winger there?

    83 was watching the passer at the wall… I think it was 89′s man… but I could be wrong.

  138. nycoil says:

    Sir, that was the correct answer. 1-0 one Bloody Mary. 2-0 we are up to 3. And it’s still beautiful outside.

    Lowetide: NO! (drinks!)

  139. icecastles says:

    Lowetide: I think the coverage is more of a problem than Dubnyk, certainly on that second goal. Who was the high winger there?

    The coverage is bad, and it’s a huge problem. But shots will always get through. At some point, one has the expect the goalie to do his job. Good goalies aren’t called good goalies because they don’t get shot on.

    Lots of quality shots getting through to the goalie is on the defensive coverage. Getting through to the back of the net is on the goalie.

  140. Lowetide says:

    Oilers must want someone else traded. This is shit.

  141. Chris says:

    I’m wincing with everytime there is a shot directed at net. Hey what’s Dwayne Roloson doing these days?

  142. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Eakins needs to draw up another outlet up to the RW when 14 is on the ice. He’s terrified of pressure on that play. Clean passes to him haven’t left the zone after he’s touched the puck all period.

  143. fuzzy muppet says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    It was 89′s man. He’s so bad on defense it sad. They must move him for anything. That contract will kill them. Good thing he’s got “chartacter”.

  144. gcw_rocks says:

    The Oilers, if they care at all about cap management, cannot afford to re-sign Hemsky unless they have already flushed two of Eberle, Gagner and Yakupov or they want to continue to under-invest in their defence. Hemsky needs to be traded for a two way winger on a value contract.

    It’s unfortunate, but thats the economic reality.

  145. Lowetide says:

    The second goal really points out what this team is doing wrong imo. The center doesn’t know where he’s supposed to be and Hall is in the only spot on the ice where you can be

    1. useless
    2. get a great look at the goal

    Whatever the Eakins rules, those things can’t happen. There are only a few reasons for that kind of defensive lapse:

    1. Don’t care
    2. Stupid
    3. Confused
    4. Thinking too much

  146. VanOil says:

    Man, Dubnyk needs a hug.

  147. Lowetide says:

    Eric T. ‏@BSH_EricT 7m

    It’s pretty hilarious seeing PHI score on open shots from the slot and then searching Twitter to see all the Oilers fans ragging on Dubnyk.

  148. Woodguy says:

    We’ll that was just awful.

    6 looks very slow.

    89 a little deep in the zone and 4 not in the picture on the 2nd goal.

    Oilers not winning battles and no one is position for a rebound ever.

    So, another day at the office.

    I’d move 6 down and 64 up.

    Saw that Eakins moved 89 out from between 83 and 4 and put 93 there.

    Also saw 57-27-26 near the end of the period.

    Maybe 57-89-14 in the second period?

  149. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers must want someone else traded. This is shit.

    Flyers going into the second with the most dangerous lead in hockey.

  150. fuzzy muppet says:

    Hall was bad on that play too, but 89 is just in no-mans land staring at the puck.

    Still waiting on Eakins accountability.

  151. jake70 says:

    With all the firepower up front, they should come back in this one.

  152. Lowetide says:

    Actually, it was Hall’s man, but Gagner wasn’t doing much either.

  153. RMGS says:

    Lowetide: There are only a few reasons for that kind of defensive lapse:

    1. Don’t care
    2. Stupid
    3. Confused
    4. Thinking too much

    5. All of the above

    Good start, bad penalty by Belov, the Flyers wake up on the PP and proceed to take over the period, the Oilers answer “all of the above” to LT’s question, and Dubnyk keeps his SV% in tact.

    And, it’s starting to snow in the Outaouais valley.

  154. Southern Oil says:

    Listening to the German feed (F you NHL for blacking out the game) is funny.
    The announcers:
    speaking german… speaking german… speaking german… then “turnover” in perfect English. Wonder which team they are talking about.

  155. fuzzy muppet says:

    This is a terrible team, with terrible management. And Edmonton is being hammered by them….

  156. Pablo Aimar says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Hall was bad on that play too, but 89 is just in no-mans land staring at the puck.

    Still waiting on Eakins accountability.

    Yak will be benched, don’t worry.

  157. Lucinius says:

    Gagner needs to be a winger, plain and simple. He cannot play defense and we’ve known this for at least three years. Put at wing and have Arcobello as the second line C.

    The forwards, in general, look absolutely confused about Eakins’ defensive system. They understood Krueger’s (it was just the worst defensive zone system ever created in modern hockey), but for some reason they either cannot understand Eakins’ system or refuse to play it. A sure sign that it needs to be changed when you’re getting this deep into a season and that is still happening.

    Dubnyk wasn’t really at fault on the second goal; that said, that’s a goal he needs to step up on and stop if he wants to save his NHL career.

  158. Lucinius says:

    The subtle nervous ticks are very present in MacT’s facial muscles.

  159. theres oil in virginia says:

    Southern Oil: F you NHL for blacking out the game

    I second that. Fuck you Ed Snider.

  160. icecastles says:

    Lucinius: Gagner needs to be a winger, plain and simple

    Yeah but his faceoff skills… oh wait.

    At least his speed… oops.

    But he creates so much space with his size… nope never mind.

    Well his defensive acumen means… dang.

    WHY THE HELL IS HE A CENTRE!? On any team? At any level? There is lots to love about Gagner. But aside from (relatively) good playmaking ability, I’m utterly mystified as to why he has never been moved to wing.

  161. VanOil says:

    Nuckoil had it right http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/11/oilers-at-lightning-g17-13-14.html/comment-page-2#comment-267913

    When I suggested you could not lose a goal tending dual with Philly, I was being silly. Mind you MacT pulling out all the stops to make this one of the most bizarre long term quests in history was beyond my vision. We could be debating this point in twenty years.

  162. Lucinius says:

    icecastles,

    Probably for the same reason the Oilers struggled to move Cogliano to wing; he didn’t want to! And we must avoid hurting anyone’s feelings.

    I don’t think the Oilers management got the memo that hockey at the NHL level is about two things; entertainment and winning. They can do neither.

  163. Lowetide says:

    Petry and Ference both over 8 minutes in that first period, Ference with a minus and Petry at nil.

  164. Woodguy says:

    All,

    NHLers will score when uncovered and 20 feet from the goal.

  165. VanOil says:

    Woodguy:
    All,

    NHLers will score when uncovered and 20 feet from the goal.

    On which net?

  166. jake70 says:

    The most frustrating thing for me that period was Hall opting to pass to Gagner (then they lose posession) when he was in the high slot, when he should have shot. Getting used to it though.

  167. VanOil says:

    Yak did a good job covering the guy in the slot in the last shift, he must of heard WG.

  168. Rebilled says:

    I’d like to hear Simmonds mic’d up today.

  169. hunter1909 says:

    They have to score here.

    But they didn’t.

    Okay. Now they really have to score here.

  170. FastOil says:

    Woodguy:
    All,

    NHLers will score when uncovered and 20 feet from the goal.

    Everyone will mystified when he’s a top half goalie next year, not for the Oilers.

  171. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    They have to score here.

    They’ve looked good lately on the PP but they can’t finish. This Oiler team has seldom been more frustrating than they are currently.

  172. nycoil says:

    Nuge has to shoot from there.

  173. hunter1909 says:

    It’s okay. I just heard Lowe’s going to have a ring contest with Snyder after the game.

  174. leadfarmer says:

    The thing that bugs me about the events from yesterday was, I’m sure they could have gotten Bishop from Ottawa for Smid last year, with an added sweetener from Ottawas side

  175. fuzzy muppet says:

    Yak looks lost . He’s almost never where he should be. Pressing when he should have patience and holding it too long when he should be quick.

    I’m starting to think the minors might be best for him.

  176. Pablo Aimar says:

    The pp is disgraceful.

  177. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Well, one of these teams doesn’t look putrid.

  178. Lucinius says:

    Gagner does not look NHL ready. Came back too soon.

  179. VanOil says:

    hunter1909:
    It’s okay. I just heard Lowe’s going to have a ring contest with Snyder after the game.

    All kinds of lewd comments come to mind and I will leave them there. Well played sir.

  180. icecastles says:

    What are the rules surrounding sending Yak down? Does an ELC make allowance for reassignment to the farm?

  181. Lowetide says:

    Hemsky finally shoots on a 3 on 1 and misses the net! Haahahahaha. Man. You have to laugh at that one.

  182. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Oh… 77. thanks for not dying when 26 took you out.

  183. Lowetide says:

    Louie said LArsen with the good play but that was Belov.

  184. Pablo Aimar says:

    icecastles,

    They aren’t sending Yak down. He is well down on the list of things that are wrong with this team.

  185. fuzzy muppet says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s how dumb this team is. The ONE thing you must do is hit the net or it’s going to be a break the other way.

    Nope…dumb dumb dumb.

  186. SK Oiler Fan says:

    This team really has the template for losing down pat regardless of who’s in the lineup.
    Fall behind early due to giveaways, poor D zone coverage, and shitty goaltending, check.
    Piss away 2 PP chances cause your zone entry schemes suck then don’t work hard enough to recover the puck, check.
    Hand over momentum to other team, check.
    Yet to come will be a short half hearted push back where they might get one.
    If they don’t it’s too late so just go through the motions for the rest of the game and avoid contact.

  187. Lucinius says:

    I’m pretty much at that point where I’m just hoping they trade the players I like to decent (or better) teams.

    That’s one of the reasons why I loathe the Smid trade. Calgary. Seriously!? I can’t cheer for Calgary even if I were to abandon the Oilers.

  188. VanOil says:

    SK Oiler Fan,

    You missed (and so far the Oiers have thankfully) the late period goal against.

  189. Lucinius says:

    I think the Oilers just declined the powerplay. Only way that makes sense.

  190. VanOil says:

    For sure we are going to win the game now.

  191. Lucinius says:

    Decision to Rosehill.

  192. icecastles says:

    Pablo Aimar: They aren’t sending Yak down. He is well down on the list of things that are wrong with this team.

    It’s not about what’s wrong with the team, it’s about developing him properly. Slowing things down would be a huge help. He’s drowning right now and that’s not going to help him get better.

  193. Lowetide says:

    Gazdic hurt.

  194. boxman says:

    hunter1909,

    Seriously, how long is it fair to Kevin Lowe that the ring” incident” just keeps coming up?? I say twenty years seems about right.

  195. FastOil says:

    How long does Gadzooks last if he doesn’t win?

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