CURTIS HAMILTON AND THE 2010 DRAFT

Curtis Hamilton scored 2 goals last night for the Oklahoma City Barons. He was +2, had 6 shots-on-goal and according to Neal Livingston was also effective on the penalty-kill. This is the best game statistically in Hamilton’s pro career, and only the second time he has posted 2 points in a pro game. Hamilton is coming up on the end of his three-year entry level deal, so I’ve chosen this time to look back on the 2010 draft, Hamilton and how it all fell apart.

Hamilton (you may remember) had all kinds of injuries during his draft year, and scout Mike Remmerde had this to say leading up to the 2010 draft:

  • Curtis Hamilton / LW: If they still had the opt-in rule, his agent might tell him to wait until next year. Two broken collarbones adds some uncertainty. I was hoping he’d answer the questions this year I had about his somewhat soft style of play, but that didn’t really happen this year. Has good hockey sense and some hands, but I can’t decide if this guy could be a steal outside of the top 100 picks or too much of a risk. I think I’d just let some team with extra 3rd/4th round picks grab him.

The Oilers draft list lined up with Bob McKenzie’s early that season, as they took his #1 and #20 selections from the TSN mid-season list. The Oilers and I agreed on the number one overall pick, and as day two dawned the top of their list looked just like mine. Hamilton? I had him 66th overall that year, right behind Joey Leach. McKenzie had him #57 on the final list.

I loved the draft in 2010. They didn’t go walkabout (well, a little with Marincin) until later on and I felt the top of the draft (Hall, Pitlick, Marincin) was pretty stable. safe and reasonable.

  • Overall impressions: A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. I also like the Hamilton and Bunz selections, leaving only the Martindale pick as a question mark (they drafted for need) among the team’s most dear selections. I think MBS is an outstanding scouting director and if he can find a way to push those “saw him good” picks back another round he’ll be even better. Blain, Czerwonka, Pelss and Jones are probably scouts picks, payment for all those nights driving to little towns all over the world in search of the next Taylor Hall. These men are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons and it looks like they’ve delivered this season. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.

It isn’t 2015 summer yet, but Hamilton is likely going to be in Europe or with another NHL team’s AHL farm club next season—unless this two goal, 6 shot outburst is a reflection of increased playing time or a return to health (Hamilton missed the beginning of the year on injury rehab). Here’s what we said about him on draft day, and you can click on Hamilton ‘categories’ label to read more. At this point, I’m a fan wishing him the best. There isn’t much left to say, he needs a Hail Mary to get a second contract and with Mitchell Moroz, Jujhar Khaira and a flock of Russians coming he needs it soon.

THE 2010 NHL ENTRY DRAFT

  • TOTAL PICKS: 210
  • TOTAL OILER PICKS: 11 (5%)
  • TOTAL NHL PLAYERS SO FAR: 57
  • TOTAL OILERS NHL PLAYERS SO FAR: 3 (5%)
  • TOTAL NHL GAMES PLAYED SO FAR: 2,850
  • TOTAL OILERS NHL GAMES PLAYED SO FAR: 211 (7%)

The Oilers 2010 draft is basically Taylor Hall and two cups of coffee (Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin) but there’s still some miles of track to go. I think we can already put a check mark next to Hall, and Pitlick-Marincin are in the good column at least for now (unless you don’t feel Pitlick’s NHL performance showed him to be worthy, I know there has been a lot of resistance to the Pitlick selection over the years).

After that, Hamilton and Martindale are winding down their entry level deals and I can’t say there’s much to suggest they’re going to be NHL players. Brandon Davidson was recalled this fall but has struggled badly this season, I haven’t heard anything about injury but he’s not progressing from last year’s accomplishments. Blain, Bunz, Czerwonka and Jones are not trending as NHL prospects of note, and of course Krstians Pelss passed away in one of the saddest events we’ve encountered as Oiler fans.

Hamilton photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved.

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29 Responses to "CURTIS HAMILTON AND THE 2010 DRAFT"

  1. jfry says:

    so, of the 11 players selected, we’re likely to only have 3 left after their entry deals and some who won’t even be getting those — the top picks survived (weird!).

    For a draft that left us with so much hope, this seems a little sad.

    it’s going to be really interesting to do this exercise on mact’s first draft and see if making those early trades really did beat the odds with the later round picks.

  2. Lowetide says:

    The farther you get from the top 5 or so the less likely you are to get an actual player. I’ve always argued that there are VERY few guys outside round 1 who have turned out so far (Faulk, Toffoli) and that Brandon Gallagher was a long shot lotto ticket that cashed.

    Oiler fans who read this blog feel differently, though. There’s a lot of anger about players not taken, but for me looking back at that McKenzie list Hall then Pitlick is something you can defend and after that it’s less and less sure.

    One of the guys who was a bit of a walkabout (Marincin) might cash.

  3. steveb12344 says:

    jfry:
    so, of the 11 players selected, we’re likely to only have 3 left after their entry deals and some who won’t even be getting those — the top picks survived (weird!).

    For a draft that left us with so much hope, this seems a little sad.

    it’s going to be really interesting to do this exercise on mact’s first draft and see if making those early trades really did beat the odds with the later round picks.

    One interesting sidenote on MacT’s picks:

    Zykov (who LA picked 37 with Edm’s pick that was used to trade for all the later picks) played 4th line and then was a healthy scratch in Russia’s first two games.

    While Slepychev, and Yakimov have been playing key roles in the WJHC’s

  4. sliderule says:

    The thing that should have scared the oil away from Hamilton is the word soft.That a killer for a player especially one with size.
    I still have hope that Marincin can turn into something.The guy can shoot the puck at over 100 mph and has a good first pass.He has shown even at his weight he can pin you .But damn he is all arms and legs needs to put on 20 lbs.Cant they get him on supplements.

  5. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    The thing that should have scared the oil away from Hamilton is the word soft.That a killer for a player especially one with size.
    I still have hope that Marincin can turn into something.The guy can shoot the puck at over 100 mph and has a good first pass.He has shown even at his weight he can pin you .But damn he is all arms and legs needs to put on 20 lbs.Cant they get him on supplements.

    The best sign for Marincin (and Pitlick for that matter) is that they’ve played in the NHL without looking completely horrible. Now, that doesn’t mean they look ready, but honestly they’re still pretty young (Marincin is just 21) and are progressing.

    If both of them can get an extended stay during the season’s second half then training camp becomes a different issue.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Moroz with an assist in the game this afternoon.

  7. Clay says:

    It’s still so early for that draft. Very few players outside of the 1st and top half of the 2nd round have had more than a cup of coffee in the show yet.

    It’s a bit irksome that Toffoli was the player taken between #46 Marincin and #48 Hamilton, but after Toffoli there’s been exactly one player to emerge – Brendan Gallager.

    I had high hopes for that group drafted from #31 to #61, but I’m still resisting the urge to give up on the 2010 draft. In three years time, if Marincin is a #4-#5 type and if one of Pitlick, Hamilton, or Martindale make it as a bottom 6 forward, I’ll add that to the fact the Oilers got by far the best player in the draft and call it a good year.

  8. misfit says:

    I was a big fan of Martindale in his draft year. I had watched probably 6 or 7 Ottawa games that year (I actually saw that many, I’m not making a “67s” pun) and each game I watched, Martindale was the best player on the ice. Often by a lot. The scouting services all talked about consistency and work ethic, but none of that came out in the games I watched.

    I wasn’t really sure why he wasn’t listed higher in the rankings and I would’ve been happy with the pick anywhere from 31 on, so I was pretty pumped when we got him in the 3rd.

    Needless to say, I was way off on that one, and that I probably don’t have a career as a pro scout, but in the games I saw, he was truly incredible. Probably for the rest of my hockey watching days, he’ll always be the most extreme case of “saw him good” for me.

  9. RexLibris says:

    The Oilers had ten picks that year and based on the data I looked at last summer going back to ’79, three prospects who can log 200+ NHL games out of ten is a relatively successful draft year for a team.

    The historical average for that game cutoff is approximately 18%. That would be about 2 players.

  10. Melman says:

    From the “saw him good” view, I quite like the way Marincin moves and carries himself on the ice. We also know from past exploits he can be a nasty SOB and once/if he fills out/gets comfortable that’s another element that will be welcome on the back end. I wonder if his development continues whether that maybe let’s them think about including Klefbom in the 3 for 1 we’re all waiting for?

    Would Klefbom’s pedigree be more valued by other clubs, or by this point in their career stage is value based purely on current scouting reports? I’ve heard Ferraro rave about Marincin a couple times after he watched him play Landon’s team.

  11. PaperDesigner says:

    I think the thing we need to remember is that no scouting service is good enough to not have misses in prominent places (first and second round) in the draft.

    You can’t avoid a Martindale or a Hamilton (who is probably my biggest personal disappointment as a pro–I thought we had a Pisani-type who would make the show much earlier). The key is that on a semi-regular basis, you find a gem. I think Marincin is that guy on the blue, and if Pitlick turns into a nice complementary player on the depth lines, well, that’s probably an okay day’s work for a scouting staff.

    The problem is that a lot of the 2010 draft class got off to a fast start, and looked like it was going to produce 4-6 players for a while instead of a much more reasonable 2-3, so it looks disappointing when really, it’s a perfectly reasonable draft for depth players (rounds 2-6) with a truly lovely centrepiece exactly where you expect to draft a centrepiece–first overall.

    I looked at the number of players who played 200 games round by round over about a ten year period. I forget my exact numbers, but basically two out of three in the first round get there (but a lot of those guys can still be disappointments), about one half to a third in round two, a third to a fourth of the players in round three, and after that, it’s pretty much a bunch of one in six longshots for rounds 2-7.

    How many 200+ game players (and remember, this can include journeymen fourth liners who just manage to barely break 200 games over a fifteen year pro career) can you expect from the Oilers draft? Probably two, maybe three. If Pitlick is a tweener who gets 200 games, and Marincin turns into an every day defenceman… that actually is probably a mild success.

    It’s harsh, but not many bullets actually hit the target. Just the way it is.

  12. Genjutsu says:

    I’m still on board with draft. They have had some terrible luck with injuries to just about everyone. Its hard to blame a team for guys getting hurt. Evan Detroit had had entire drafts whiff.

    The top three looks like they have a chance and Jones has shown something his year.

    Davidson was going to take a little longer than most before he got the big C so and it’s rare for a D to develop in a straight line.

    Lets just wait for the fat lady shall we?

  13. WeirsBeard says:

    I don’t get the grief over the 2010 draft. They got Hall, and made several other reasonable bets, many of which were significantly affected by injury. Sometimes things don’t work out for the best(boy, as Oiler fans don’t we know this), but I really don’t see those picks as foolish or unreasonable. Isn’t that what we are after in management, that is, a sober and reasoned approach?

  14. Lowetide says:

    Brossoit with another shutout in the ECHL. That’s 4 so in 8 gp.

  15. WeirsBeard says:

    Lowetide:
    Brossoit with another shutout in the ECHL. That’s 4 so in 8 gp.

    Why do you hate Smid LT?

  16. justDOit says:

    Lowetide:
    Brossoit with another shutout in the ECHL. That’s 4 so in 8 gp.

    That bodes well, but how many years off is he from having a chance with the Oilers?

    Also, this: @Real_ESPNLeBrun: Michal Neuvirth’s agent Patrik Stefan says he’s hoping for a change of scenery out of Washington for his client. A fresh start…

  17. Lowetide says:

    justDOit: That bodes well, but how many years off is he from having a chance with the Oilers?

    Also, this: @Real_ESPNLeBrun: Michal Neuvirth’s agent Patrik Stefan says he’s hoping for a change of scenery out of Washington for his client. A fresh start…

    I would think Brossoit gets an AHL gig either later this season or starts 13-14 as starter or co-starter. The current GM traded a top 4D for him.

  18. bookje says:

    Lowetide: I would think Brossoit gets an AHL gig either later this season or starts 13-14 as starter or co-starter. The current GM traded a top 4D for him.

    Oilers math lesson for you.

    Craig McTavish traded for Brossoit + Expiring goalie contracts = Brossoit being the starting goalie for Oilers in Oct 2014

  19. Lowetide says:

    bookje: Oilers math lesson for you.

    Craig McTavish traded for Brossoit + Expiring goalie contracts = Brossoit being the starting goalie for Oilers in Oct 2014

    Not a chance. Not one.

  20. sliderule says:

    PaperDesigner,

    Well actually some teams have their bullets hit

    Since 2007 to 2010 kings have eight picks taken second round or later playing somewhere in NHL

    Carolina has five

    The oilers if you include Omark have three

    It’s hard but like anything in life their are people who succeed while others fail

  21. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    Brossoit with another shutout in the ECHL. That’s 4 so in 8 gp.

    Wow. So what would he have to do to make that trade even or a win? Would 200 games be enough? (quite a few for a G)

  22. Lowetide says:

    jp: Wow. So what would he have to do to make that trade even or a win? Would 200 games be enough? (quite a few for a G)

    He’d have to be the starter within two years and then be the starting goalie for a few seasons. jmo. Oilers gave from today for maybe tomorrow. At the end of a rebuild, you should be paid supremely for that kind of trade.

  23. bookje says:

    Lowetide: Not a chance. Not one.

    No, I know. I was just ‘because Oilers’ thinking.

    This team drives me crazy

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One thing down the stretch in OKC is going to be how Bill Scott runs his ship in coordination with MacT.

    Scott has shown a willingness to bring in AHL vets to ice a competitive squad in the past. Right now, without Omark and key pieces like Lander and Horak up with the club, R. Hamilton being unable to do anything… the offence is up for grabs by the 2010 3.

    If Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale can’t show now, the chance of them showing later in life are nil, barring divine intervention.

    I’m cautiously optimistic that Pitlick just needed a run of good luck (no injury and fresh eyes that appreciate him) to bloom into something useful.

    Such a shame about Pelss. He looked to be exactly the kind of late pick wonder story good teams all have in their back pocket.

  25. G Money says:

    bookje: No, I know. I was just ‘because Oilers’ thinking.

    This team drives me crazy

    Well, hang on a sec. Doesn’t that depend on whether Rebuild Tank v3.0 starts next year?

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Interesting:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=439909

    I like his name a lot. Dane Fox. Hilarious.

  27. Lowetide says:

    bookje: No, I know. I was just ‘because Oilers’ thinking.

    This team drives me crazy

    Oh well. Totally understand how you feel.

  28. LostBoy says:

    Lowetide: I would think Brossoit gets an AHL gig either later this season or starts 13-14 as starter or co-starter. The current GM traded a top 4D for him.

    I’m not sure we’ll ever really understand what happened with the Smid trade. Whatever happens with Brossoit, nothing in the world will convince me that you really trade an established second pairing defenseman entering his prime – a guy who came through the “rebuild” near the top of the league in shot blocking and somehow only -2 from the start of the 2009-2010 season until the end of 2012-2013 – because of Brossoit and the OIl Kings angle. There was nothing statistically to suggest removing Smid would be anything remotely like addition by subtraction (unlike, I suppose, the case you could make currently for Nick Schultz, if you had somebody else to play 3 LD). The “Huh” around Oilerland was the usual “There must be something else coming.” But there wasn’t. It was like the Gilbert trade multiplied.

    The Gilbert trade has I guess come into focus as a bad GM making a bad trade (though Gilbert’s weird fade through buyout then reduction to a professional tryout does make you, y’know, wonder if the whole story is in public view there). I’d like to believe MacTavish isn’t a bad GM.

    I dunno, makes no sense. About the only thing that in any way makes sense is that it was a dressing room or player-coach thing, with the explicit talk about getting rid of complainers from MacTavish back in the summer. Nothing at all in Smid’s history or public profile would suggest he was a problem, but other than that…it’s easily the biggest head-scratcher of the MacTavish era so far.

  29. gcw_rocks says:

    I would like to see the Oilers take a flyer or two on guys like Dane Fox. With the lack off offence from the prospect group, why not? Instead he goes to the Canucks. Sigh.

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