OILERS AT STARS, G28 13-14

Steve Simmons in his Sunday column: Slowly but surely, the Dallas Eakins influence is becoming evident with the Edmonton Oilers. First nine games: 36 goals against; Next nine games: 34 goals against: Last nine games: 23 goals against.

The Oilers say hello to an old friend today, with Shawn Horcoff and the Dallas Stars hosting the 29th best NHL team late this afternoon. Dallas is death for the Oil drop over the years, but the current edition of the Oilers should have plenty of energy after a subpar performance against Columbus on Friday night.

San Jose Sharks v Edmonton Oilers

QUAL COMP (FORWARDS)

  1. Taylor Hall
  2. Ales Hemsky
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  4. David Perron
  5. Jordan Eberle
  6. Sam Gagner
  7. Nail Yakupov

This is Behind the Net and the difference between 1 and 7 isn’t huge but it’s there. Plenty of talk this weekend about Taylor Hall and his WOWY (which we’ll get to) but it appears Dallas Eakins has identified the man who’ll push the river and has (rightly) placed him at the front of the pack. Also, I’ve been reading quite  bit on Eakins mishandling the young Russian, seems to me this shows the coach is trying to find (and of course the opposition coach plays into this too) soft landings for the kid and the guy who has pain issues early this season. Truth to tell, the most capable L, R and C are facing the toughs, which makes sense based on the talent set of the current Oilers.

ON ICE SAVE PERCENTAGE (FORWARDS)

  1. Gazdic .966
  2. Jones .950
  3. Acton .945
  4. Perron .914
  5. Arcobello .907
  6. Yakupov .886
  7. Hemsky .881
  8. Smyth .872
  9. Gagner .871
  10. Eberle .864
  11. Gordon .863
  12. Hall .863
  13. Nugent-Hopkins .862
  14. Joensuu .821

I’ve also been reading about the good work of the Acton-Gazdic 4line, child please. You and I could play two months of NHL hockey and look reasonable with that kind of SP behind us, and on the other side of the coin Nuge-Hall are getting beaten up pretty well by their own goalies. Which leads me to this.

OILERS CORSI ON (FORWARDS)

  1. Perron 1.01
  2. Arcobello .62
  3. Eberle Even
  4. Hemsky -1.97
  5. Smyth -2.02
  6. Gagner -3.25
  7. Nugent-Hopkins -5.31
  8. Yakupov -6.22
  9. Hall -8.10
  10. Jones -8.22
  11. Gordon -12.23
  12. Gazdic -19.62
  13. Acton -20.50
  14. Joensuu -22.70

Since arriving in the NHL, Taylor Hall has been pushing the river. He is NOT doing it through 27 games this season, and his WOWY chart is ghastly at this point in the season.

WHAT’S WITH THE WOWY?

First, you should know I’m going to bet Taylor Hall every time. When he’s 50, I’m betting Taylor Hall. The combination of power, speed, skill and finesse is breathtaking, I could watch him play NHL hockey all day.

Second, he had an injury and we’re not certain how much impact it had on him (or may continue to have) but it’s real. He played a couple of games at center and he also played with a very tentative Sam Gagner for several games.

Finally, I want to quote an article from a couple of week’s back over at Tyler’s place.

  • Dellow: When he (Hall) moved to the wing, they went 56/44 with him on the ice and the score close in the next five games. Since then – and I recognize he’s coming off an injury – he’s Lennart Petrell, who posted a 38% Corsi% with the score close during 2011-13. This is a problem. There’ve been whispers of changes in how the Oilers approach things from a tactical perspective and I wonder if this links back to that. Dallas Eakins mentioned during a media availability that they’d changed things in the defensive zone and abandoned the much discussed swarm. The time period that he suggested that the change was made roughly corresponds to the point between the Pittsburgh game and the Islanders game. I’ve felt, watching the games, like we’re seeing the Oilers forecheck much less aggressively and basically let the opposition come to them.

There’s always a danger of excuse-making for our favorite players, and I may in fact be doing that here in regard to Taylor Hall. I’m going to stay the course with him though, because he’s a wonderful talent, a determined man and a chance machine. As a fan of the draft, Taylor Hall represents the Oilers’ Mecca, and for me he’s already the center of a wonderful cluster. He might be a flawed diamond, but he’s our diamond and I’m sticking with him all down the line.

EXTRA SKATER, HALL, LAST FIVE CORSI FOR 5X5

  • Against Jackets (7-0W): 11-9, 55%
  • Against Panthers (4-1W) 9-12, 42.9%
  • Against Hawks (5-1 L) 8-11, 42.1%
  • Against Preds (3-0 W) 12-10, 54.5%
  • Against Jackets (4-2 L) 9-8, 52.9%

The last really poor game was 10 November, Oilers have been pushing more and the results are more in line with expectations. The Corsi for % in those 5 games for Hall is 49%, a major improvement over the rough patch.

dorey

 WATCHING THE BRUINS

Everything’s easier when you have a top defender. Everything. I watch all the Bruins games, and it’s amazing how easily they can place a flawed defender (Torey Krug as an example) into the rotation and keep on rolling because they have a monster at the end of the book. 25 minutes a night from big Chara, 21 from Seidenberg and another 21 from Johnny Boychuk and then all of a sudden you can work in Doug Hamilton and Torey Krug without having the whole damn thing fall apart like a cheap suit.

I learned about young defense from the Toronto Maple Leafs. When I was a kid, they had a veteran defense (this is when I was little, the ’60s) and I remember Tim Horton and Allan Stanley and Bob Baun and Larry Hillman and they all looked 95 years old. Old defensemen, the good ones, are gold. Anyway, by 1971 they were all kids like Jim Dorey, Jim McKenny, Mike Pelyk, Rick Ley, Brad Selwood and Brian Glennie—honestly, they were all like 23 or younger and inexperienced. Even a guy like McKenny who had been around awhile couldn’t play defense like any of the old guys could, and the best of the kids (Dorey) was a high event player (Dorey would fight if someone looked at him sideways) so chaos ruled the day because kids on blue.

We’ve been talking about dealing the first round pick for Ehrhoff and I’m still on board, but at this point would like a more complete player, a real defenseman like Phaneuf who can play big minutes in all disciplines and still find the time to be an asshole. The Oilers need a big ugly defenseman with experience, hair on his ass, a sneer and bad breath.

Any of those guys lying around?

Dallas lost Stephane Robidas to a horrible injury the other night, they’ll be down one good man on the blue line today.

huddy4The Oilers need a guy like Charlie Huddy. They already have Justin Schultz for the Coffey-role, they need a coffee-mate for Schultz the younger. If Boychuk was left handed he might be perfect, but more and more I’m leaning toward Dion Phaneuf. You should be prepared for a lot of Double Dion wow kablammo bang smash pow! talk as we get closer to free agency. I’m sorry, but can’t find an alternative and until I do, we’re all going to suffer.

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368 Responses to "OILERS AT STARS, G28 13-14"

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  1. jake70 says:

    Hall is a great talent. Needs to cut down on turnovers, the passing to the opposition’s stick blade kind. He would be an out of this world game-breaker if he could score on higher% of break-aways/in close plays – they just end up as a shot on net. His deal at a 6M cap hit may just be one of the best value contracts in the latter half of it if he continues to polish his game.

  2. Pouzar says:

    Great blog LT. Your point about things being easier with an elite defender is bang on. I still believe a Pronger on this squad makes it a playoff team. And like you with Taylor Hall, I am going all in with Darnell Nurse. The kid is a legit stud #1 franchise d-man. Don’t even bother trying to temper my expectations people. :)

  3. sliderule says:

    So your saying oilers defence is too young

    So lLT why did you trade Ladi

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “We’ve been talking about dealing the first round pick for Ehrhoff and I’m still on board, but at this point would like a more complete player, a real defenseman like Phaneuf who can play big minutes in all disciplines and still find the time to be an asshole. The Oilers need a big ugly defenseman with experience, hair on his ass, a sneer and bad breath.”

    In this contest my order of preference runs:

    1. Draisaitl (keep the pick)
    2. Erhoff (trade the pick without much extra)
    3. Phaneuf (If we could sign him for only cash)

    I understand the logic of “we need this now” but I’m pretty averse to trading lottery to top 10 picks. I could be arm twisted if the player returning is right (i.e., all the check marks from 1LD, to contract are ticked off), I’d be awfully sore about it though and it wouldn’t be something I’d do if I were in charge.

    On Erhoff vs. Phaneuf absent contract context I pick Erhoff. He’s an all discipline >24 mins a night, shot metric success story on a terrible team and has a long track record of being good. Phaneuf looks to me a little weaker in the hockey areas and a little stronger in the meat and gristle areas. My guess is EDM fans (and the EDM fan in LT is coming out a bit here) would prefer Phaneuf by a large margin (through their wailing about not getting Weber).

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=CHRISTIANEHRHOFF&f1=2013_s+2012_s+2011_s+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2009_p+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=DIONPHANEUF&f1=2013_s+2012_s+2012_p+2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

    THe bigger question is the trade/contract. I can’t imagine Toronto will let Phaneuf reach market. Either they sign him or they parley him into a deadline trade, no?

    So let’s return to the JBow trade I keep harping on:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=663317

    He had one year left on his contract, was in the right age for a vet (30ish not 35ish), and cost a 22nd OV and a pair of middling prospects. Then he signed a pretty favorable contract to stay in STL long term:

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/817

    Phaneuf may well cost more than that from Toronto and a lot more than that from his agent. Is he worth this much more than JBow?

    For me, even more than a pure hockey question of Erhoff-Phaneuf, this is the kicker. The only price I can imagine is simply too dear.

    The one benefit to Phaneuf would be if Tor lets him get to UFA and we sign him for just $$$. That would help. On the flip side, the benefit to Erhoff is we could probably pull the trigger on that trade now or as soon as the new GM settles in (If they are going to trade him, why would they wait?)

  5. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    So your saying oilers defence is too young

    So lLT why did you trade Ladi

    Sideburns. He tried to hide them, but they were there.

  6. Lowetide says:

    I was asked to write the GD thread over at ON, there’s some interesting stuff on the defense

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/12/1/db-280-hurdling

  7. steveb12344 says:

    With all this talk about the ETA for D. Nurse, I wrote this yesterday on L.T’s other blog:

    “My money is on them giving him his 9 games next year, and if he plays well enough to be in the top 4 they will keep him up.

    No chance this kid ever sees the AHL unless it’s on some kind of conditioning stint, or 20 years from now when his career is winding down.”

    Not because that’s necessarily the way I’d do it, but definitely because Oilers.

    All the talk around here has been that Nurse will need 3 to 5 years to arrive in the NHL. I even read one comment suggesting that Nurse wont be ready until the final year of Hall’s contract. That would mean 6 full years of post-draft development to be ready for the show.

    That is absolutely absurd!

    I have compiled a list of D-men drafted in the top 10 over the last 3 years. Let’s see how they are doing, shall we?

    2011:

    A. Larsson #4

    D. Hamilton #9

    J. Brodin #10

    2012:

    R. Murray #2

    G. Reinhart #4

    M. Rielly #5

    H. Lindholm #6

    M. Dumba #7

    D. Pouliot #8

    J. Trouba #9

    S. Koekkoek #10

    2013:

    S. Jones #4

    D. Nurse #7

    R. Ristolainen #8

    Of the 3 2011 picks, all of them were playing a regular role in the NHL by their 2nd post-draft season.

    2012 saw 8 D-men taken. 5 of those are taking a regular NHL shift this year, and the other 3 are knocking on the door.

    Of the 3 2013′s Jones is a regular, and Risto has played 19 NHL games already. Only Nurse got sent back right away.

    So once again I ask of the many smart people here: What is it about Nurse that makes him so much less NHL-ready than almost all of his recent draft comps?

  8. Bar_Qu says:

    Double Dion?

    El Kabong?

    http://youtu.be/AmemBa1HAzU

  9. Lowetide says:

    Steve: Brodin played with a hammer, still does. The Oilers don’t have a Suter to mentor him, they have a bunch of kids trying not to drown.

  10. steveb12344 says:

    Ok, so what about the other 9 players that made it in either their 1st or 2nd eligible year.

    Also, would anybody like to bet against my prediction for next year. Seriously, if Nurse gets sent back to Jr. next year and then starts in the “A” the following year, I’ll eat my shorts.

    You gotta know the Oiler brass is watching his progress this year in Jr. and salivating at the thought of getting him in the lineup.

  11. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344,

    The Oilers need a top pairing Dman.

    The only player on your list who played top pair was Brodin and he does it with Ryan Suter who is the type of defender that LT is talking about.

    Nurse is probably good enough to play bottom pairing next year, maybe, but he’s miles from being what the Oilers needs. 1LHD.

    That is why the 6+ years thing is thrown out.

    That is how long it will take Nurse to become (if he every does) what the Oilers need today.

  12. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344:
    Ok, so what about the other 9 players that made it in either their 1st or 2nd eligible year.

    Also, would anybody like to bet against my prediction for next year. Seriously, if Nurse gets sent back to Jr. next year and then starts in the “A” the following year, I’ll eat my shorts.

    You gotta know the Oiler brass is watching his progress this year in Jr. and salivating at the thought of getting him in the lineup.

    You need to be clear.

    Are you betting that:

    1) Nurse makes the Oilers

    2) Nurse is a 1LHD next year

    One is very plausible, the other next to impossible.

  13. steveb12344 says:

    Also. Does Dumba get to play with R. Suter too?

  14. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy: You need to be clear.Are you betting that:1) Nurse makes the Oilers2) Nurse is a 1LHD next yearOne is very plausible, the other next to impossible.

    I know it was a long post but in case you missed it, here

    My money is on them giving him his 9 games next year, and if he plays well enough to be in the top 4 they will keep him up.

    No chance this kid ever sees the AHL unless it’s on some kind of conditioning stint, or 20 years from now when his career is winding down.

    Not because that’s necessarily the way I’d do it, but definitely because Oilers.

  15. Mr DeBakey says:

    First nine games: 36 goals against; Next nine games: 34 goals against: Last nine games: 23 goals against.

    Steve Simmons doesn’t understand Shooting & Save Percentages, does he?

    Hall’s hurt.
    They always come back too soon.
    Its the manly thing to do.

    Phaneuf’s UFA Cap Hit will be hard for the Oilers to carry.
    $2,000,000+ is a big chunk of change

  16. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy: steveb12344, The Oilers need a top pairing Dman.The only player on your list who played top pair was Brodin and he does it with Ryan Suter who is the type of defender that LT is talking about.Nurse is probably good enough to play bottom pairing next year, maybe, but he’s miles from being what the Oilers needs. 1LHD.That is why the 6+ years thing is thrown out.That is how long it will take Nurse to become (if he every does) what the Oilers need today.

    OK, now this makes some sense, but a lot of the comments I’ve been reading are more along the lines of:

    He will need 2 yrs in Jr. followed by a few more in the AHL before he is ready to join the Oilers etc.

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    steveb12344,

    Lowetide:
    Steve: Brodin played with a hammer, still does. The Oilers don’t have a Suter to mentor him, they have a bunch of kids trying not to drown.

    Add to that BUF is insane. Before Lafontaine took over and sent some of the kids back home, Regier had all of Myers (23), McNabb (22), Pysyk (21), Risto (19) and Zadorov (18) on the NHL D roster.

    This is taking Oilers’ style baptism by fire to some absurd level of incompetence.

    Many of these other players are either a) being rushed also (cf. Reilly); b) struggling at the NHL level, or at the least losing the favor of coaches (cf. Larsson); c) being sheltered by mountains of experience (cf. Hamilton)

  18. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    I understand the logic of “we need this now” but I’m pretty averse to trading lottery to top 10 picks.

    EVERY TEAM THAT MISSES THE PLAYOFFS HAS A LOTTERY PICK WITH THE NEW CBA.

    The 17th spot gets a ball for #1 overall in the draft.

    The chances are low outside of the top 5, but they are no longer zero.

    Lottery does not mean top 5 anymore.

  19. Lowetide says:

    steveb12344: OK, now this makes some sense, but a lot of the comments I’ve been reading are more along the lines of:

    He will need 2 yrs in Jr. followed by a few more in the AHL before he is ready to join the Oilers etc.

    I think he’d best well served by another year in junior and then AHL time, but the Oilers don’t do things that way. If Detroit had Nurse, I bet he’d be in SSM at 19.

  20. steveb12344 says:

    Lowetide: I think he’d best well served by another year in junior and then AHL time, but the Oilers don’t do things that way. If Detroit had Nurse, I bet he’d be in SSM at 19.

    Ahhh, TY LT. My point was not so much my opinion, as much as a prediction of how The Oilers handle the situation.

    Knowing the team as I do, I don’t think there is a chance in hell that they will go the “Detroit” route.

  21. Woodguy says:

    This is a bellwether game is there ever was one.

    The Oilers strung together 5 decent games in a row (4 decent corgi close games), then shit the bed in a variety of ways vs. CBJ.

    The word from all the Oilers after the they beat NAS (in all aspects of the game) that they “don’t want to lose 2 in a row anymore”

    I heard Hall, Hemsky and Perron say that, and I’m sure others did too.

    This game is the 3rd in 4 nights, but its not second of a B2B so they should be rested.

    DAL is good team (11th in Fenclose in the NHL, Oilers are 26th)

    DAL is a “heavy team”, a lot of their skilled players come with size.

    Lehtonen is playing well with a .926.

    I think this is a very good game to judge where the Oilers are at.

    Are they still committed to the team defence that has been the cornerstone of their recent success?

    Are they able to not “try to win the game themselves” (which never works) and stick to the system even when the results aren’t there yet?

    I’m going to take the results of this game (the possession game, not the score) as a bellwether of where this team is going.

    It has all the ingredients.

    Go Oilers!!

  22. godot10 says:

    The Oilers 2014 pick is going to be in the top 5, with a really good chance of being top 3. You don’t trade it till near or at the draft to get maximum value, and if Eckblad or an eventual Gagner replacement is on the board, it is a mistake to trade it.

    Heck, Philly might offer you Courturier at the draft if Eckblad is on the board.

    The season is lost. If the pick is to be traded, trade it in June.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: EVERY TEAM THAT MISSES THE PLAYOFFS HAS A LOTTERY PICK WITH THE NEW CBA.

    The 17th spot gets a ball for #1 overall in the draft.

    The chances are low outside of the top 5, but they are no longer zero.

    Lottery does not mean top 5 anymore.

    I never claimed “lottery” meant top 5.

    But as you point out, the term “lottery” still applies insofar as we are discussing the likelihood of winning the #1 pick.

    Moreover, you are simply applying the genetic fallacy to a term that have become commonplace and simply means “bottom five team” or “very shitty team”

  24. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344: OK, now this makes some sense, but a lot of the comments I’ve been reading are more along the lines of:

    He will need 2 yrs in Jr. followed by a few more in the AHL before he is ready to join the Oilers etc.

    If the Oilers were a good team you could leave Nurse to percolate for a few years.

    Suter was a 7th overall pick.

    He played another year at Wisconsin, then left school and played a year in the AHL.

    Be nice if the AHL option was there for Nurse, but CHL rules say otherwise.

  25. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy: If the Oilers were a good team you could leave Nurse to percolate for a few years.Suter was a 7th overall pick.He played another year at Wisconsin, then left school and played a year in the AHL.Be nice if the AHL option was there for Nurse, but CHL rules say otherwise.

    I totally agree with you here. I’d love to be able to see him in the AHL next season.

    Since it’s either back to JR or NHL though, my guess is he will have to look very bad to not make the big club next year.

    You also have to take into consideration that the thing that holds most teenage prospects back is they’re needing to further develop physically to be able to play with men at the NHL level.

    My guess is that by next September, he will be well above the average sized NHL player, and with his Pro-sports pedigree. I don’t believe that mental maturity will be a problem either.

  26. jp says:

    Also from Simmons article:
    “Never mind the salary. Never mind the term. In hockey terms only, David Clarkson, at any price, isn’t contributing enough to the Maple Leafs … Martin Brodeur promised: “You’ll love this guy.” Still waiting for that guy to arrive …”

    We knew this all along, but sure looks like MacT dodged a bullet there.

  27. OilClog says:

    Leaving Nurse in the CHL isn’t going to help him though, he’s dominating at 18. You have to give him another challenge or he’ll stop developing and hit a wall. Should he be in the NHL at 19.. Probably not. should he be in the CHL at 19.. Probably not. Too bad there’s no minor league he can play in at 19 lol

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: If the Oilers were a good team you could leave Nurse to percolate for a few years.

    Suter was a 7th overall pick.

    He played another year at Wisconsin, then left school and played a year in the AHL.

    Be nice if the AHL option was there for Nurse, but CHL rules say otherwise.

    But, I don’t believe they preclude us from sending him to Sweden.

    Send him to replace E. Gustafsson when he comes over next year (if he does).

    I know there was some wrangling about Yakupov playing in the KHL in the lockout year instead of Sarnia… but if there is no problem, this is such an obvious choice it boggles the mind no one (that I can recall) has tried it with a North American player yet.

  29. lance says:

    Place was packed. Lady beside me knew all the words. I had no idea this was going on at all. Watching my high school, I wondered the combined total of plastic surgery in the room. Incredible the money spent on presentation.

    Dude can still sing. One song became a $2 medley while everything else mirrored the album. Though I don’t really know that because we left after the fifth song.

    Did the band just accept their level of excellence and ride it for 20 years? As though the exact sounds were the product themselves, that they were playing Get Lucky Live, night after night after night, intentionally trying to deliver. I wonder if at some point they just stopped trying to get better. Not sure if they feel an obligation to produce the previous result verbatim or if they quit at self improvement.

    Sam Gagner may, in the last two weeks, have started the process. He seems to have been the same kind of player for the last six years (not really a ‘cheater’ for offense, but definitely focused on the breakout) and now I wonder, based on reports from games I’ve not watched, I wonder if he has begun the process of working on deficiencies to make them future strengths. Is he genuinely trying to get better at defense?

    Yak has been blessed with talents very few ever get. My question is this: Are any of these players content with the skills they already have, and if so, are they the ones to go? I have no access to anything, but I would say that anyone from this cluster who isn’t practicing hard to improve their skills daily and with a primary focus, they are the ones to punt.

    Being in Loverboy doesn’t win championships.

  30. TheOtherJohn says:

    Nurse will play here next year. That is a fact. Question is whether he should. He should not. But playing another year in SSM is less than ideal. Doesn’t matter MacT saw him play for 5 minutes and knew he was a player. Oh wait, that was Klefbom.

    Good to see Penner get another point 21 points in 22 games. Pretty good signing at $2.0m

  31. steveb12344 says:

    So to put this thing to bed, my final prediction for Nurse is:

    He spends much, if not all of next season in the Oilers top 4.

    We will see him on the top pairing at some point by Xmas 2015.

    He is Mac T’s first ever draft pick, and you can bet the ranch that Mac can’t wait to get him in Oiler silks full-time.

    Heck it really wouldn’t surprize me if they even brought him up here for a few games at the conclusion of his Jr season this year. (Though it’s obviously more likely, and correct if he spends those few games in OKC, as they will be the only games he sees in OKC.)

    Don’t underestimate Mac T’s desire to show everyone he made the right choice.

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This hits keep coming!

    Edmonton Oilers ✔ @EdmontonOilers
    Bryzgalov gets the start in net again tonight vs. Dallas. “I think it’s important to get Bryz into another game.” – Coach Eakins
    Expand
    5m
    Edmonton Oilers ✔ @EdmontonOilers
    Boyd Gordon won’t play tonight against Dallas after getting injured Friday night in Columbus. Will Acton draws back in at centre.

  33. VanOil says:

    This post is in need of a little WOWY music http://youtu.be/XmSdTa9kaiQ

    Jay and Dan’s interview with Luc Robitaille touches on the theme of what a great defense man brings. Just in this case Luc brings up that one of the reason that scoring is lower now is that in his day the #5 & #6 D men were not very talented and easy to score on. Also a great story about Tiger Williams giving him a nic name.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSXmDsFK7LI the interview starts at 18 min mark if you want to see it and skip the crudity.

    My impression from the Simmons article is that Jake Gardiner is the D man most likely to leave TO. With the cap going up and MLSE having all the cash in the world Phaneuf is not going anywhere nor is he going to need to take a home town discount. As Willis has pointed out in a ON article in Oct the Oilers and TO do not look to have the peaces available to make a Gardiner deal work out. Plus despite him being both a Badger and a Marlie he does not bring the Old or the Nasty that LT is looking for.

  34. jp says:

    So this is weird. I looked at the Oilers players on ice sv% from BTN over the past few years to get some context for exactly HOW bad the Oilers on ice sv% this year is. Very, very bad as we knew – actually Gagner’s 876 from 2010-11 is the worst number from the 3 previous years. Half the team is below that point right now.

    But have a look at some of the kids over those years, their on ice sv%, it’s rank among forwards and their PDO:

    2013-14 (14F >10GP)
    Gagner 14GP 871 (9/14) 918
    Eberle 27GP 864 (10/14) 971
    Hall 20GP 863 (12/14) 957
    RNH 25GP 852 (13/14) 932

    (2012)-13 (15F >20 GP)
    RNH 40GP 920 (10/15) 1002
    Hall 45GP 908 (13/15) 1003
    Gagner 48GP 901 (14/15) 1007
    Eberle 48GP 989 (15/15) 985

    2011-12 (14F>40GP)
    Gagner 75GP 923 (5/14) 1025
    RNH 62GP 908 (12/14) 1011
    Eberle 78GP 900 (13/14) 1029
    Hall 61GP 900 (15/15) 991

    2010-11 (13F>40GP)
    Hall 65GP 899 (10/13) 991
    Eberle 69GP 896 (11/13) 975
    Gagner 68GP 876 (13/13) 973

    I wouldn’t have believed it, but it’s sure looking like those guys are affecting on ice SV%. It isn’t regressing to the mean. They were bad from the get go, and have remained bad till today.

    That said, they’ve also had a consistently high on ice shooting, keeping their PDO in the ball park of 1000 for the most part. This doesn’t say they’re bad players, but it sure suggests they really are high event players.

  35. Chris says:

    I completely agree that the Detriot model is optimal in theory. On the other hand its rather premised on being a team that’s been deep and excellent for a decade or two. This sadly is not the position the Oilers find themselves in. You could let Nurse spend another two years developing some polish and perhaps he then comes in at 21 and is ready to make an impact.

    Unfortunately the Oilers have been stuck in the analysis of “is he better than what we have now?” Now in fairness to Darnell Nurse when he came to training camp this year, he did not look out of place. He could compete against grown men and had sucess. By all reports he’s gone back to the OHL and played like a man on a mission and wants to make the NHL. If he comes back fifteen pounds heavier and with another year of experience under his belt he’s going to have a strong case to make that he deserves his shot at NHL minutes.

    Nor is it really the case that an all star cast of defenders is already patrolling the blue line and we haven’t room for him to learn on the job. Belov, Petry and Justin Shultz are keepers but after that we have the seven horsemen of defensive chaos. Darnell Nurse will not be a worse option for us further down the linup.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Bryzgalov in net? Well, I’d start Dubnyk but I said that Friday so what do I know? The Gordon injury is the big item here, but at least arcobello gets in!

  37. Minister D- says:

    This might sound extreme, but I’m not certain the rest of the Oilers roster can pull the weight needed to make up for Gordon’s absence. The fear is that this’ll be one of those games where we hear the play-by-plays note, on multiple occasions, how the Oilers “miss Gordon to take those important draws.” Sigh. Cover your eyes and hold your nose.

  38. Chris says:

    Not alot of free agent defensemen this year who could help. I look at some of the names like Boyle and Timonen and Chris Phillips but they are all on the wrong side of 35 and the first two are pushing forty.

    It would seem the offseason shopping list is essentially Phanfeuf, Orpick, Girardi, Ron Hainsey and Tom Gilbert. (This is assuming that we resign Belov otherwise add him to the list)

    Sadly we could have had Hainsey and Gilbert this year for a song and this really would have been a dramatically better team.

  39. Woodguy says:

    NHL.com and other places have the game time as 6:00pm EST, so 4:00pm local.

    Just set the DVR to record the game, and the coverage doesn’t start until 5:30pm local.

    Are they showing it on delay?

  40. rickithebear says:

    Is he save % a reflection of luck and goalie performance variance.

    Or could it be location of shots by opposition and elevation of shot relative to net position.

    I would expect 4th line forwards to be able to pick the top corners, just under the arms, just over the pads from well within the funnelled scoring zone. 4th line forwards scream, elite scores.

    Luck?

    Do you leave retirement savings to luck?

    Or do you look at the practical trends and commons sense performance of the retirement product.

    Luck!

    Jesus!

    1. Shot from
    2. Elevation (quadrant of net)

  41. hags9k says:

    The most capable L, C and second most capable R are facing the toughs. Eberle walks right up to food in Hemsky’s locker and eats it whenever he pleases.

  42. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “We’ve been talking about dealing the first round pick for Ehrhoff and I’m still on board, but at this point would like a more complete player, a real defenseman like Phaneuf who can play big minutes in all disciplines and still find the time to be an asshole. The Oilers need a big ugly defenseman with experience, hair on his ass, a sneer and bad breath.”

    In this contest my order of preference runs:

    1. Draisaitl (keep the pick)
    2. Erhoff (trade the pick without much extra)
    3. Phaneuf (If we could sign him for only cash)

    I understand the logic of “we need this now” but I’m pretty averse to trading lottery to top 10 picks. I could be arm twisted if the player returning is right (i.e., all the check marks from 1LD, to contract are ticked off), I’d be awfully sore about it though and it wouldn’t be something I’d do if I were in charge.

    On Erhoff vs. Phaneuf absent contract context I pick Erhoff. He’s an all discipline >24 mins a night, shot metric success story on a terrible team and has a long track record of being good. Phaneuf looks to me a little weaker in the hockey areas and a little stronger in the meat and gristle areas. My guess is EDM fans (and the EDM fan in LT is coming out a bit here) would prefer Phaneuf by a large margin (through their wailing about not getting Weber).

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=CHRISTIANEHRHOFF&f1=2013_s+2012_s+2011_s+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2009_p+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=DIONPHANEUF&f1=2013_s+2012_s+2012_p+2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2008_p+2007_s+2007_p

    THe bigger question is the trade/contract. I can’t imagine Toronto will let Phaneuf reach market. Either they sign him or they parley him into a deadline trade, no?

    So let’s return to the JBow trade I keep harping on:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=663317

    He had one year left on his contract, was in the right age for a vet (30ish not 35ish), and cost a 22nd OV and a pair of middling prospects. Then he signed a pretty favorable contract to stay in STL long term:

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/817

    Phaneuf may well cost more than that from Toronto and a lot more than that from his agent. Is he worth this much more than JBow?

    For me, even more than a pure hockey question of Erhoff-Phaneuf, this is the kicker. The only price I can imagine is simply too dear.

    The one benefit to Phaneuf would be if Tor lets him get to UFA and we sign him for just $$$. That would help. On the flip side, the benefit to Erhoff is we could probably pull the trigger on that trade now or as soon as the new GM settles in (If they are going to trade him, why would they wait?)

    Dude, has the LT collective started collectively smoking the drapes?

    It’s not Ehrhoff, It’s Errorhoff… for good reason. :) That’s his well-known moniker from around the league coined from his Schultz-jr style of play.

    I’ve watched a lot of Errorhoff back in his San Jose and Vancouver Days. There were times that he certainly looked all world and you’d ask yourself, wow, who is this guy?

    Yet, with more tape, he’s more Schultz than Coffee-mate.

    Granted, Ehrhoff would instantly be our best defenseman if he were in Oilers silks, he still wouldn’t be what we’re looking for (hair on ass, sneer, bad breath, arsehole, plays all disciplines).

  43. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Bryzgalov in net? Well, I’d start Dubnyk but I said that Friday so what do I know? The Gordon injury is the big item here, but at least arcobello gets in!

    Saw a quote from Eakins that his (Bryz) family flew down to see him in DAL.

    Not sure I’d use that reasoning as a coach, but I get it.

  44. cabbiesmacker says:

    It’d be nice if all talk of Ehrhoff coming near the Oilers would cease and desist. I don’t get the lemming tendencies here sometimes.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    he still wouldn’t be what we’re looking for (hair on ass, sneer, bad breath, arsehole, plays all disciplines).

    Ehrhoff leads BUF D in 5v5 TOI/gm, 5v4 TOI/gm and 4v5 TOI/gm

    I’d say that’s all 3 disciplines.

    He’s usually been 1PP and 2PK and top pairing 5v5 since Vancouver days.

    Oilers fans would have passed on Lidstrom because he didn’t hit enough.

    They care if a player “looks like he’s trying” and have no time for “actual results” or “quality of play”

    Thunderous checks and anger FTW!

  46. Hammers says:

    Biggest problem we have is the mental side of the game . Hall ,Gags & Ebs must be so disappointed to continue to loose . You don’t think Gags talks to Cogliano and wishes he had gone to the Ducks or that Hall sees Seguin win a cup then get traded .You must wonder what Justin thinks as well as Hopkins & Yak . To much youth can hurt just like to much age . For those of us with older kids didn’t we see a difference in all of them from 20 to 25 let alone 30 .Maturity takes years for a reason .If we end up ,as it looks now, with another top 7 pick this cycle will go on and on . This team needs experienced players now . I loved Magnus but the best thing for the oil and probably him was trading for Perron . That type of trade has to happen again . Not a home run but another piece that better suits what the team really needs and that is consistency .

  47. steveb12344 says:

    Chris: Not alot of free agent defensemen this year who could help. I look at some of the names like Boyle and Timonen and Chris Phillips but they are all on the wrong side of 35 and the first two are pushing forty.It would seem the offseason shopping list is essentially Phanfeuf, Orpick, Girardi, Ron Hainsey and Tom Gilbert. (This is assuming that we resign Belov otherwise add him to the list)Sadly we could have had Hainsey and Gilbert this year for a song and this really would have been a dramatically better team.

    Have you heard specifically from Hainsey, and or Gilbert, that they would have been willing to sign in Edm.?

    I don’t think we can just assume that every free agent would be willing to come here. There have been hordes of examples of players with no interest in coming to Edmonton no matter what.

    It seems to me to be highly unlikely that Gilbert would want any part of a return to the Oilers. As a matter of fact I still believe (purely my opinion) that “Giveaway-Gilbert” likely, quietly asked to be moved out, and Tambo granted his request to go back to his home team.

    That would explain the “weirdness” of that deal, and that the return seemed more like “whatever they could get” As opposed to “A move to help improve the team”

  48. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    he still wouldn’t be what we’re looking for (hair on ass, sneer, bad breath, arsehole, plays all disciplines).

    Ehrhoff leads BUF D in 5v5 TOI/gm, 5v4 TOI/gm and 4v5 TOI/gm

    I’d say that’s all 3 disciplines.

    He’s usually been 1PP and 2PK and top pairing 5v5 since Vancouver days.

    Oilers fans would have passed on Lidstrom because he didn’t hit enough.

    They care if a player “looks like he’s trying” and have no time for “actual results” or “quality of play”

    Thunderous checks and anger FTW!

    I guess I’m biased from watching him back in the SJS and Vancouver days.

    My perception of him is basically an older left-shot J. Schultz.

  49. Ryan says:

    The Errorhoff moniker started in his SJS days because he had a penchant like a certain J. Schultz for playing a riverboat gambler style of hockey that when he took a risk that didn’t work out, the end results was a goal against that occurred in spectacularly embarrassing fashion.

    Maybe he’s rounded out his game since then…

  50. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy: Ryan, he still wouldn’t be what we’re looking for (hair on ass, sneer, bad breath, arsehole, plays all disciplines).Ehrhoff leads BUF D in 5v5 TOI/gm, 5v4 TOI/gm and 4v5 TOI/gmI’d say that’s all 3 disciplines.

    But isn’t leading Buffalo’s D, kinda like being King Shit of Turd Island?

  51. Lowetide says:

    steveb12344: But isn’t leading Buffalo’s D, kinda like beingKing Shit of Turd Island?

    No sir. He’s bona fide.

  52. Chris says:

    steveb12344: Have you heard specifically from Hainsey, and or Gilbert, that they would have been willing to sign in Edm.?

    I don’t think we can just assume that every free agent would be willing to come here.There have been hordes of examples of players with no interest in coming to Edmonton no matter what.

    It seems to me to be highly unlikely that Gilbert would want any part of a return to the Oilers.As a matter of fact I still believe (purely my opinion) that “Giveaway-Gilbert” likely, quietly asked to be moved out, and Tambo granted his request to go back to his home team.

    That would explain the “weirdness” of that deal, and that the return seemed more like “whatever they could get”As opposed to “A move to help improve the team”

    I haven’t seen that we asked and refused or that we didn’t ask anywhere. However, from the point in the offseason at which both Hainsey and Gilbert signed I think it is fair to assume that that late in the game of musical chairs they were not particularly discriminating as to where they were going to sign.

    At the time Nick Shultz was the captain of the Wild, and was suposed to bring us all those intangibles we lacked “grit”, “leadership” and “compete”. He was Andrew Ference before Andrew Ference was. Unfortunately neither of them are particulrly adept at moving the puck.

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan,

    I understand the mentality here… but it hates reality. This is the same mentality that think Hemsky is terrible.

    When you play with the puck you lose it, sometimes in dramatic fashion and you look bad and people give you silly names and talk about how inconsistent you are and enigmatic, etc. etc. When you play without the puck and hit people (say Smid) the commentariat says how great you are, warrior, takes one for the team, etc.*

    These are narratives created and maintained based on superficial reasons. What matters at the end of the day is who is helping to win hockey games. Erhoff is going to do that.

    Here’s the best profile of the player at this stage of his career:

    http://canucksarmy.com/2013/4/16/former-canuck-christian-king-felix-ehrhoff-should-probably-win-the-norris

    *I’m only using these players for readily available to Oiler fans reasons, not because this jumble of players makes much sense to put together for an argument.

  54. El Duderino says:

    Re Clarkson and MacT dodging a bullet and most of us knew it would not have been a good move.
    I had a bad feeling re Hossa, Heatley, Nylander as UFA whale hunts. Re Brodziak, Glencross, being let go. Re drafting Pouliot, Nash. Plante, Niniimaki Re signing Khabibulin. Re trading Stolll and Greene and winding up with Whitney’s bad feet. Many more moves could be added which many of us had a bad feeling about. So who is it or WHAT(?) is it in the Oilers entire organization that makes them make so many bad moves?
    There are so many questionable shaky decisions that it boggles.
    Do they see and want a shiny new thing and then get blinders on?
    Is there a lack of money?
    Where are the solid judgment, the philosophy, the focus, the careful planning?

  55. justDOit says:

    Lowetide: No sir. He’s bona fide.

    But is he a Dapper Dan man?

  56. Lowetide says:

    justDOit: But is he a Dapper Dan man?

    Watch your language young man, this is a public market.

  57. rickithebear says:

    Chris:
    Not alot of free agent defensemen this year who could help. I look at some of the names like Boyle and Timonen and Chris Phillips but they are all on the wrong side of 35 and the first two are pushing forty.

    It would seem the offseason shopping list is essentially Phanfeuf, Orpick, Girardi, Ron Hainsey and Tom Gilbert. (This is assuming that we resign Belov otherwise add him to the list)

    Sadly we could have had Hainsey and Gilbert this year for a song and this really would have been a dramatically better team.

    Chris there was a dman who was on the best GA dpair in the game last year. He signed with SJ in the off season last year.
    He gave up 7 even goals last year in 25 games of which 5 were to his d partners side.

    He gave up 2 goals on 69 shots to his side in 25 games. 18 of those were with in 20 ft that average potential of 20% the other 51 had an average potential of 6 %.

    Sure wish he signed that 3yr @1.25M

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    steveb12344: Have you heard specifically from Hainsey, and or Gilbert, that they would have been willing to sign in Edm.?
    I don’t think we can just assume that every free agent would be willing to come here. There have been hordes of examples of players with no interest in coming to Edmonton no matter what.

    This is a good point. But both those players (and someone like Raymond) waiting really long into the Summer/Fall to find work, and in the cases of Gilbert and Raymond accepted PTOs in order to even try out for work.

    All took short, cheap deals to stay in the NHL. All three ended up on bad NHL teams.

    It is certainly possible that they would under no conditions come to the Oil, but this wasn’t a case where the players in question had a lot of options are were terribly choosey.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit: But is he a Dapper Dan man?

    Lowetide: Watch your language young man, this is a public market.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hni4OIJXG4

    I have no idea if “Fop” (or Dapper Dan for that matter) ever existed, but “fop” doesn’t sound like a hair treatment I’d employ either.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    Gameplan tonight should be containment of Benn whenever he is on the ice, so he will probably have a hat-trick.

  61. Old School G says:

    I hope we land a lead dog soon for our D, but, I hope it’s not Ehrhoff, I hope it’s Girardi. Let’s do this trade right. Care to do us a kindness Slats?

  62. steveb12344 says:

    Chris: I haven’t seen that we asked and refused or that we didn’t ask anywhere. However, from the point in the offseason at which both Hainsey and Gilbert signed I think it is fair to assume that that late in the game of musical chairs they were not particularly discriminating as to where they were going to sign. At the time Nick Shultz was the captain of the Wild, and was suposed to bring us all those intangibles we lacked “grit”, “leadership” and “compete”. He was Andrew Ference before Andrew Ference was. Unfortunately neither of them are particulrly adept at moving the puck.

    “There have been hordes of examples of players with no interest in coming to Edmonton no matter what.”

    Do you dispute this fact?

    Do you really believe that Gibby would be willing to return here? By the fact that he eventually went to Florida, I’m guessing that he wants to stay as far away from the spotlight, and public scrutiny of the Edmonton market as possible.

  63. Gret99zky says:

    I haven’t checked for hair but I would throw everything but Hall and RNH at Montreal for Subban.

  64. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    steveb12344: Do you really believe that Gibby would be willing to return here? By the fact that he eventually went to Florida, I’m guessing that he wants to stay as far away from the spotlight, and public scrutiny of the Edmonton market as possible.

    Isn’t more likely considering he was left on the shelf forever until a shitty team offered him a PTO that he would have gone anywhere?

    At the time he signed that PTO he was probably opening the folder marked “Europe” in his agent’s office with a sigh.

  65. steveb12344 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is a good point. But both those players (and someone like Raymond) waiting really long into the Summer/Fall to find work, and in the cases of Gilbert and Raymond accepted PTOs in order to even try out for work.All took short, cheap deals to stay in the NHL. All three ended up on bad NHL teams.It is certainly possible that they would under no conditions come to the Oil, but this wasn’t a case where the players in question had a lot of options are were terribly choosey.

    I can see what you are saying about these players, and don’t disagree. However If 29 other teams wanted no part of them, even for bargain basement prices. Can we really sit here and lament that we missed out on an opportunity to get a player that would have somehow helped save our season?

  66. steveb12344 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Isn’t more likely considering he was left on the shelf forever until a shitty team offered him a PTO that he would have gone anywhere?At the time he signed that PTO he was probably opening the folder marked “Europe” in his agent’s office with a sigh.

    I think he may have gone anywhere, except Edm. lol.

  67. Gret99zky says:

    Gilbert has exhausted the shoe store market in Edmonton (and probably in the WC).

  68. russ99 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Fop is one of my favorite words, I use it in everyday conversation.

    We’re in deep without Gordon tonight. I hope Arcobello draws in to that tough assignment.

    Looking for some more dynamic offense tonight, enough of the possession game. That’s why Hall’s numbers are down – how often does he get the puck (other than on the wall) with time to do something with it?

    I’m a firm believer that you have to create your own chances, rather than relying on mistakes by the opposition.

  69. steveb12344 says:

    Gret99zky: Gilbert has exhausted the shoe store market in Edmonton (and probably in the WC).

    Yes, and the Tinky Winky Purse market as well.

  70. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Well, he’s 31 and he apparently wants to play in the East.

    We’re also unlikely to be a contender any time soon, so looking at his age and our timeline, I can’t say it’s a great fit for him.

    I did previously acknowledge that he’d instantly be our best defenseman if he did come here. :)

  71. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    steveb12344: I can see what you are saying about these players, and don’t disagree.However If 29 other teams wanted no part of them, even for bargain basement prices.Can we really sit here and lament that we missed out on an opportunity to get a player that would have somehow helped save our season?

    Well, let’s not raise the stakes that high (“save our season”… SOS! Ha)

    What they would have given us is a better team, I don’t know how much, but better. And considering the short term, cheap deals, they would have been better bets than say: Grebs, Jones, Acton, Hamilton, etc.

    The other thing is what signing Gilbert, Hainsey, Raymond and others would have signalled is that MacT is following through on his Moneypuck potential that he signalled with Belov: find undervalued players on cheap contracts.

    It also would have signalled that MacT was looking a wider pool of candidates: Jones, Grebs, Acton and Hamilton all look like rewarding the middling performance of who you know rather than taking a chance on the superior performance of outsiders.

    [edit: man… "signalled" is used 3 times here… sometimes writing is the worst.]

  72. hockeyguy10 says:

    Woodguy,

    Starts at 4 on Sportsnet Oilers. Sportsnetwest picking it up at 5:30

  73. John Chambers says:

    Plan B this offseason: Andrei Markov.

    Get a del done for Ehrhoff as well and we go into next year:
    Markov – Ehrhoff
    Petry – Belov
    Schultz – Ference
    Klefbom – Nurse

    Add a couple of Winnik / Raymond / Moss wingers to play with Gordon and I don’t care who you stick in net, that’s a playoff team!

  74. Logan91 says:

    If anyone is interested, check out this video. It’s actually a good watch, it’s just like Oil Change but for the Bruins.

    Ference gets mentioned a lot in the first episode, and it’s very interesting to watch how that organization deals with their problems (aka Seguin). There’s 5 episodes in total now, it just started this season.

    http://youtu.be/V0O117jowgw

  75. John Chambers says:

    Gret99zky,

    Yes – even an Eberle + Nurse offer would be a sacrifice worth making for PK.

  76. steveb12344 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Well, let’s not raise the stakes that high (“save our season”… SOS! Ha)What they would have given us is a better team, I don’t know how much, but better. And considering the short term, cheap deals, they would have been better bets than say: Grebs, Jones, Acton, Hamilton, etc. The other thing is what signing Gilbert, Hainsey, Raymond and others would have signalled is that MacT is following through on his Moneypuck potential that he signalled with Belov: find undervalued players on cheap contracts.It also would have signalled that MacT was looking a wider pool of candidates: Jones, Grebs, Acton and Hamilton all look like rewarding the middling performance of who you know rather than taking a chance on the superior performance of outsiders.[edit: man… "signalled" is used 3 times here… sometimes writing is the worst.]

    I can’t dispute any of this…

    I think my original point was just how I hate when people just assume that every free agent available was somehow an option for Edmonton, and that the Oiler brass once again dropped the ball. As much as it sucks the reality is that there is a certain percentage of NHL players that would just never pack up their family and move them up to Edmonton.

    Sadly that will not change until this team starts contending for championships, and even then there will likely still be plenty of holdouts.

  77. Old School G says:

    VanOil: Does Hemsky for Girardi make sense for either team?

    http://www.rantsports.com/nhl/2013/11/27/new-york-rangers-rumors-will-dan-girardi-leave-before-michael-del-zotto/

    I think it’s definitely something that could make sense. The Rangers are 11th in the East in GF and the Oilers need exactly what Girardi brings. If the boys want to make a deal I’m sure there’s a deal that could be made. Hmmmm.

  78. Minister D- says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    “Two weeks from Everywhere: An Oral History of the Oilers Blogosphere.”

  79. Minister D- says:

    And, of course, we are men of constant sorrow.

  80. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Minister D-:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    “Two weeks from Everywhere: An Oral History of the Oilers Blogosphere.”

    On the blurb page:

    “Ain’t this place a geographical oddity…”
    ~Thurmond Peridrew, Vermont Evening Post

    ———-
    Reminding me of this brilliant scene from Stillman’s Metropolitan:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvlyDMzwAB4

    Starts at 5:20

    “I don’t read novels, I prefer good literary criticism”

    hahahahahaha

  81. Henry says:

    Hey LT, in your piece over at ON you mentioned an interview btw Mac and Jim Byers. I spent a while trying to find it, do you or anyone here have a link to it? thanks.

  82. TheOtherJohn says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: All took short, cheap deals to stay in the NHL. All three ended up on bad NHL teams.
    ________________________________________________

    Isn’t more likely considering he was left on the shelf forever until a shitty team offered him a PTO that he would have gone anywhere?

    At the time he signed that PTO he was probably opening the folder marked “Europe” in his agent’s office with a sigh.

    Florida might be a shitty team but it is1 point up on the Oilers and the Oilers have played a PILE of EC games. Maybe its time to quit looking down our nose at other teams and look in the mirror because a pretty compelling argument can be made that the Oilers are also a shitty team

    Have no clue how anyone can suggest MacT is assembling his team using moneypuck. He took a 1 year flyer on Belov that will look quite stupid if its a 1 & done.Ference is not moneypuck, would actually be the antithesis of moneypuck: aging player getting 4 year deal at real decent $$. Ryan Jones and Grebeshkov at $1.5m are not money puck signing.

    As to Gilbert he was a better player than Grebeshkov here, never left to play 3 years in the KHL where he regressed, and is $500K cheaper.That signing would have been moneypuck

  83. Thinker says:

    In regards to trading the pick, i don’t do it. High draft picks tend to increase their value over time, and not only that, that pick likely helps the team more for longer than a erhoff. Also, i support bringing in phaneuf, and i have heard speculation that he wants to come back to alberta. That being said i don’t think phaneuf is a number 1. Too much chaos.

  84. FastOil says:

    Erhoff might be a good D but he is exactly what the Oilers don’t need, another non-physical high event offensive D. Corsi is only a guide accurate for a long time line. At some point this team needs a guy they can put on the ice that isn’t prone to brain farts in the here and now to keep the puck out of the D zone and the net.

    As for Phaneuf he would be great for the Oilers, and I think given his usage he plays harder minutes than Erhoff. Paired with Petry he would probably look pretty good. I am not sure he would be a good fit for JS as he can be erratic as well. I would love to have a jerk like that patrolling the blue again.

    As for what is better for Phaeuf, the Oiler’s 4 year prospects are far better than the Leafs IMO.

    godot10:

    I would take Ekblad and Reinhart over Couturier for sure. Anyone else I’d take SC.

  85. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    TheOtherJohn: Florida might be a shitty team but it is1 point up on the Oilers and the Oilers have played a PILE of EC games. Maybe its time to quit looking down our nose at other teams and look in the mirror because a pretty compelling argument can be made that the Oilers are also a shitty team

    Have no clue how anyone can suggest MacT is assembling his team using moneypuck. He took a 1 year flyer on Belov that will look quite stupid if its a 1 & done.Ference is not moneypuck, would actually be the antithesis of moneypuck: aging player getting 4 year deal at real decent $$. Ryan Jones and Grebeshkov at $1.5m are not money puck signing.

    As to Gilbert he was a better player than Grebeshkov here, never left to play 3 years in the KHL where he regressed, and is $500K cheaper.That signing would have been moneypuck

    I’m basically 100% sure your comment bears no critical relation to anything I’ve written here today.

  86. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: I guess I’m biased from watching him back in the SJS and Vancouver days.

    My perception of him is basically an older left-shot J. Schultz.

    His numbers show him very well, including VAN days on the 1st pairing.

    We only watch so many games and our recollections are always colored by our opinions.

  87. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344: But isn’t leading Buffalo’s D, kinda like beingKing Shit of Turd Island?

    Being able to put up close to 50%CF with the toughest minutes on the shittiest team is a feather in his cap.

  88. Woodguy says:

    jp:
    So this is weird. I looked at the Oilers players on ice sv% from BTN over the past few years to get some context for exactly HOW bad the Oilers on ice sv% this year is. Very, very bad as we knew – actually Gagner’s 876 from 2010-11 is the worst number from the 3 previous years. Half the team is below that point right now.

    But have a look at some of the kids over those years, their on ice sv%, it’s rank among forwards and their PDO:

    2013-14 (14F >10GP)
    Gagner 14GP 871 (9/14) 918
    Eberle 27GP 864 (10/14) 971
    Hall 20GP 863 (12/14) 957
    RNH 25GP 852 (13/14) 932

    (2012)-13 (15F >20 GP)
    RNH 40GP 920 (10/15) 1002
    Hall 45GP 908 (13/15) 1003
    Gagner 48GP 901 (14/15) 1007
    Eberle 48GP 989 (15/15) 985

    2011-12 (14F>40GP)
    Gagner 75GP 923 (5/14) 1025
    RNH 62GP 908 (12/14) 1011
    Eberle 78GP 900 (13/14) 1029
    Hall 61GP 900 (15/15) 991

    2010-11 (13F>40GP)
    Hall 65GP 899 (10/13) 991
    Eberle 69GP 896 (11/13) 975
    Gagner 68GP 876 (13/13) 973

    I wouldn’t have believed it, but it’s sure looking like those guys are affecting on ice SV%. It isn’t regressing to the mean. They were bad from the get go, and have remained bad till today.

    That said, they’ve also had a consistently high on ice shooting, keeping their PDO in the ball park of 1000 for the most part. This doesn’t say they’re bad players, but it sure suggests they really are high event players.

    Players have been shown not to affect ONSV% over and over again.

    This is with hundreds of players over thousands of games.

    In your own sample, Gagner goes from 871, to 901, to 923.

    Its pretty clear.

  89. Lowetide says:

    Henry:
    Hey LT, in your piece over at ON you mentioned an interview btw Mac and Jim Byers.I spent a while trying to find it, do you or anyone here have a link to it? thanks.

    No, Patricia Teter mentioned she had heard it in a tweet back and forth last night.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Minister D-:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    “Two weeks from Everywhere: An Oral History of the Oilers Blogosphere.”

    Winner!

  91. steveb12344 says:

    Woodguy: Being able to put up close to 50%CF with the toughest minutes on the shittiest team is a feather in his cap.

    Agreed… I was referring to the usage of his TOI numbers as an indicator of the quality of said player.

  92. Woodguy says:

    hockeyguy10:
    Woodguy,

    Starts at 4 on Sportsnet Oilers. Sportsnetwest picking it up at 5:30

    hockeyguy10:
    Woodguy,

    Starts at 4 on Sportsnet Oilers. Sportsnetwest picking it up at 5:30

    Excellent, thank you!

  93. TheOtherJohn says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I’m basically 100% sure your comment bears no critical relation to anything I’ve written here today.

    You are dismissive of Florida (shitty team) . I point out they have a better record than the Oilers playing similiar competition.

    MacT assembling his roster using moneypuck. No, he is not. Saying you are doing it and doing it are a world apart. Love B Gordon to death but that was not a money puck signing either. Great signing though. Just not at bargain pricing. Phoenix signed Gordon out of Washington at $2.65m over 2 years= moneypuck signing.

    Gilbert forlornly sitting at home because he is all but Europe bound. He signs for 65% of what Grebeshkov signs for and is playing 22:13 a night albeit for a shitty team (I do agree w you Florida is shitty). He could have signed here and still been on a bad team.

    Black Dog says it best find good players, sign good players, keep good players. MacT signed a number of cheap players. So far Belov has really covered that bet. The balance of the other signings, so far, meh

  94. VanOil says:

    Hall, Nuge and Yak never having a worthy #1D would be as tragic as Adrian Peterson never having a quarter back.

  95. Alpine says:

    FastOil:
    Erhoff might be a good D but he is exactly what the Oilers don’t need, another non-physical high event offensive D. Corsi is only a guide accurate for a long time line. At some point this team needs a guy they can put on the ice that isn’t prone to brain farts in the here and now to keep the puck out of the D zone and the net.

    As for Phaneuf he would be great for the Oilers, and I think given his usage he plays harder minutes than Erhoff. Paired with Petry he would probably look pretty good. I am not sure he would be a good fit for JS as he can be erratic as well. I would love to have a jerk like that patrolling the blue again.

    As for what is better for Phaeuf, the Oiler’s 4 year prospects are far better than the Leafs IMO.

    I would take Ekblad and Reinhart over Couturier for sure. Anyone else I’d take SC.

    Ehrhoff’s definitely a two-way guy though, not just offensive. And he’s arguably as good, if not better than Phaneuf in his own end. Does Phaneuf’s grit just cover all that up? I like physical players like anyone, but does Phaneuf being more physical actually make him more effective and improve his on-ice impact relative to Ehrhoff’s? Seems Ehrhoff’s on-ice impact on his team is amazing, according to that Thomas Drance article.

    I guess what’s up for debate is do we need that guy who can push the river very well in big minutes against second toughs, or the guy who’s sort of struggling but doing alright against top lines and the toughest opposition? Probably both, but we already have guys like Petry and Ference sort of playing Phaneuf’s role of taking on toughs (and getting killed), but we don’t have a guy outperforming the other team’s’ decent players and bringing up the performance of his D partners.

    I think we have more evidence that Ehrhoff fits the latter description more than expecting Phaneuf to come in do the same (assuming that getting away from Carlyle will result in better Corsi etc.).

  96. Ryan says:

    Rom and Woodguy,

    I have nothing against Ehrhoff, though I still think he’s a little bit like a Visnosky in terms of his playing style.

    Would a 2009- Visnovsky help the Oilers now? Absolutely.

    Visnovksy’s a Corsi monster and historically a great option on the PP.

    All that being said, I still think we’re more in need of a dman who can play all disciplines well more so than another offenseman.

    Not to call out Woodguy with Ehrhoff’s toi stats this season, but…

    looking at the last full season (2011-2) at BTN…

    Ehrhoff was 7th in toi/60 4v5, he played 5th toughest corsi rel qoc at 5v5, he had the most 5v4 toi /60.

    Lordy, I’ll be damned if that doesn’t look like the #1 PP, soft minutes offenseman sort of in the mould of a Lubo that I thought he was. :)

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    he still wouldn’t be what we’re looking for (hair on ass, sneer, bad breath, arsehole, plays all disciplines).

    Ehrhoff leads BUF D in 5v5 TOI/gm, 5v4 TOI/gm and 4v5 TOI/gm

    I’d say that’s all 3 disciplines.

    He’s usually been 1PP and 2PK and top pairing 5v5 since Vancouver days.

    Oilers fans would have passed on Lidstrom because he didn’t hit enough.

    They care if a player “looks like he’s trying” and have no time for “actual results” or “quality of play”

    Thunderous checks and anger FTW!

  97. Woodguy says:

    steveb12344: I can see what you are saying about these players, and don’t disagree.However If 29 other teams wanted no part of them, even for bargain basement prices.Can we really sit here and lament that we missed out on an opportunity to get a player that would have somehow helped save our season?

    Yes.

  98. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    TheOtherJohn: You are dismissive of Florida (shitty team) . I point out they have a better record than the Oilers playing similiar competition.

    So what? What does this have to do with anything? Who is running around claiming the Oilers aren’t a shitty team and needs you to tell the hard truths?

    EDM being a shitty team is a completely independent fact from FLA being a shitty team. They have literally nothing to do with one another, or with the question at hand: Gilbert and his Summer options.

    TheOtherJohn: MacT assembling his roster using moneypuck. No, he is not. Saying you are doing it and doing it are a world apart. Love B Gordon to death but that was not a money puck signing either. Great signing though. Just not at bargain pricing. Phoenix signed Gordon out of Washington at $2.65m over 2 years= moneypuck signing.

    This is a strawman. Complete unadulterated arguing with garbage.

    I wrote:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Well, let’s not raise the stakes that high (“save our season”… SOS! Ha)

    What they would have given us is a better team, I don’t know how much, but better. And considering the short term, cheap deals, they would have been better bets than say: Grebs, Jones, Acton, Hamilton, etc.

    The other thing is what signing Gilbert, Hainsey, Raymond and others would have signalled is that MacT is following through on his Moneypuck potential that he signalled with Belov: find undervalued players on cheap contracts.

    It also would have signalled that MacT was looking a wider pool of candidates: Jones, Grebs, Acton and Hamilton all look like rewarding the middling performance of who you know rather than taking a chance on the superior performance of outsiders.

    [edit: man… "signalled" is used 3 times here… sometimes writing is the worst.]

    to which you responded:

    TheOtherJohn: Have no clue how anyone can suggest MacT is assembling his team using moneypuck. He took a 1 year flyer on Belov that will look quite stupid if its a 1 & done.Ference is not moneypuck, would actually be the antithesis of moneypuck: aging player getting 4 year deal at real decent $$. Ryan Jones and Grebeshkov at $1.5m are not money puck signing.

    So… you are agreeing with me for the most part (we can argue this Belov point if you like, I disagree with you; We can also argue the Gordon signing, but I would never claim that is a moneypuck move, nor was his PHX deal, which is hardly different from his EDM deal BTW.) but inexplicably contriving for me some position other than stated.

    TheOtherJohn: Gilbert forlornly sitting at home because he is all but Europe bound. He signs for 65% of what Grebeshkov signs for and is playing 22:13 a night albeit for a shitty team (I do agree w you Florida is shitty). He could have signed here and still been on a bad team.

    I have no idea how you’ve missed that this is what I’ve been arguing here all day and since the Summer. It boggles minds.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Rom and Woodguy,

    I have nothing against Ehrhoff, though I still think he’s a little bit like a Visnosky in terms of his playing style.

    Would a 2009- Visnovsky help the Oilers now?Absolutely.

    Visnovksy’s a Corsi monster and historically a great option on the PP.

    All that being said, I still think we’re more in need of a dman who can play all disciplines well more so than another offenseman.

    Not to call out Woodguy with Ehrhoff’s toi stats this season, but…

    looking at the last full season (2011-2) at BTN…

    Ehrhoff was 7th in toi/60 4v5, he played 5th toughest corsi rel qoc at 5v5, he had the most 5v4 toi /60.

    Lordy, I’ll be damned if that doesn’t look like the #1 PP, soft minutes offenseman sort of in the mould of a Lubo that I thought he was.

    Viz, as much as I love him, has never been a 1st pairing heavy lifting guy.

    You’re right that in 11/12 he wasn’t on the PK.

    He has done it thoughout his career though.

    You need to look at TOI/gm at nhl.com though.

    Ehrhoff was 1st 5v5 TOI/gm and 1st TOI 5v4/gm that year.

    4v5 TOI/gm was 7th, but looking at game played in this regard, was basically 5th.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20122BUFDADALL&sort=evenStrengthTimeOnIce&viewName=timeOnIce

    Also,

    If you think I’m full of shit, by all means call me out with evidence as you did. Well done.

    Turns out that you’re right 4v5, but wrong 5v5 and 5v4.

    That’s why we have discussion.

  100. lawrenharris says:

    Gret99zky:
    Gilbert has exhausted the shoe store market in Edmonton (and probably in the WC).

    Can somebody elucidate this for me? I met him once and he did not seem notably fabulously shod.

  101. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    For no reason other than it is the sickest sample of all time (and the video is classic) and we need some punch in our game… turn it up!!!

    http://vimeo.com/6465388

  102. jp says:

    Woodguy: Players have been shown not to affect ONSV% over and over again.

    This is with hundreds of players over thousands of games.

    In your own sample, Gagner goes from 871, to 901, to 923.

    Its pretty clear.

    There are exceptions to most rules though. For sure Gagner bounces around year to year as all players do. But does it not give you pause to see that all of RNH, Hall and Eberle fall somewhere between 10 and 15 in on ice SV% each and every year? None has ever approached even team average over 4 seasons. That’s getting to be a sample size large enough that I believe it’s real. That’s 222 GP for Eberle, 127 for RNH and 191 for Hall. We should be up over 1000 events for each player at this point.

    I’m not trying to criticize or question the value of on ice SV%, PDO, etc. I’m a believer that those metrics tell us things we often can’t don’t see by just watching the games. I think they’re valuable and can tell us a lot about the players and the team. At the same time, to claim that they’re always true all of the time might be going a little far. With the sample size and relative consistency of this effect with RNH, Hall and Eberle, I think there’s a very good chance we’re seeing an exception to the rule.

    And maybe this shouldn’t view this as each of those players individually driving on ice SV%. The 3 play together more than they play apart, so what we’re seeing would be the collective effect of the 3 players (among many other things), and maybe also the specific style those players play when together.

    Or it could be all noise like you’re saying. It seems a little too consistent year to year though for me to believe it’s just chance. That’s my opinion, you’re certainly entitled to your own.

  103. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    For those that don’t know, the master:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BP1_1DpeBE

  104. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: If the Oilers were a good team you could leave Nurse to percolate for a few years.

    Suter was a 7th overall pick.

    He played another year at Wisconsin, then left school and played a year in the AHL.

    Be nice if the AHL option was there for Nurse, but CHL rules say otherwise.

    bang on!

    from 2000 to 2007
    we retained Hemsky, Dubnyk ,Petry and Gagner from
    77 picks
    10 1st, 13 2nd’s and outliers.
    08-12
    2008
    1st #22 Eberle
    6th #163 Hartikainen
    2009
    1st MP traded fro Perron
    2nd Lander top 10 GPG top 25 PPG AHL
    2010
    1st Hall
    2nd Pitlick
    2nd Marincin
    2nd Hamilton
    2011
    1st RNH
    1st Klefbom
    2nd Musil
    2012
    1stv yakupov
    2nd M0r0z
    2013
    1st Nurse
    2nd MO roy
    outliers 08-13 do we see them padding the roster over the next 3 years.

  105. Alpine says:

    lawrenharris,

    All about relatively to other players I guess. I had a poster from the oilers skills comp a few years back that had all the players wearing jeans and their favourite shoes and Gilbert had a nice pair of slim fitting light wash jeans on while most of the team were wearing awkward fitting dad jeans. He also seems committed to the long hair, and while I think it looks terrible on most men, it shows he’s probably pretty attentive to his appearance.

    Should note that yes, he appeared to be wearing a nice pair of sneakers on said poster.

  106. Caramel Obvious says:

    This is what I’m listening to right now, grading papers.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcVku6bFe-U

  107. leadfarmer says:

    VanOil,

    Except for that one year that Favre had a career that AP fumbled his way through the playoffs .

  108. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Alpine:
    lawrenharris,

    All about relatively to other players I guess. I had a poster from the oilers skills comp a few years back that had all the players wearing jeans and their favourite shoes and Gilbert had a nice pair of slim fitting light wash jeans on while most of the team were wearing awkward fitting dad jeans. He also seems committed to the long hair, and while I think it looks terrible on most men, it shows he’s probably pretty attentive to his appearance.

    Should note that yes, he appeared to be wearing a nice pair of sneakers on said poster.

    But, does he wear white skates? a tinted visor?

  109. TheOtherJohn says:

    Rom

    I think Gordon’s Edm contract $3m per for 3 years is a big difference from Phx $1.30m and 1.35m per over 2 years. Phx was a moneypuck deal or to put it into context $200K and 150K LESS than Oilers are currently paying Ryan Jones.

    If we resign Belov it was a very good signing. At worse he is a solid 2nd pairing guy and expect as he gets more comfortable in NA we may see some more offense out of him

  110. Woodguy says:

    jp: There are exceptions to most rules though. For sure Gagner bounces around year to year as all players do. But does it not give you pause to see that all of RNH, Hall and Eberle fall somewhere between 10 and 15 in on ice SV% each and every year? None has ever approached even team average over 4 seasons. That’s getting to be a sample size large enough that I believe it’s real. That’s 222 GP for Eberle, 127 for RNH and 191 for Hall. We should be up over 1000 events for each player at this point.

    I’m not trying to criticize or question the value of on ice SV%, PDO, etc. I’m a believer that those metrics tell us things we often can’t don’t see by just watching the games. I think they’re valuable and can tell us a lot about the players and the team. At the same time, to claim that they’re always true all of the time might be going a little far. With the sample size and relative consistency of this effect with RNH, Hall and Eberle, I think there’s a very good chance we’re seeing an exception to the rule.

    And maybe this shouldn’t view this as each of those players individually driving on ice SV%. The 3 play together more than they play apart, so what we’re seeing would be the collective effect of the 3 players (among many other things), and maybe also the specific style those players play when together.

    Or it could be all noise like you’re saying. It seems a little too consistent year to year though for me to believe it’s just chance. That’s my opinion, you’re certainly entitled to your own.

    They are all within reason given the team ONSV% each year…..except this year is a bit low, but the sample is still fairly small.

    I used to believe that players could significantly effect it as well, but time has shown me that its wrong.

    Let’s look at Hall: ( HALL ONSV% – TEAM ONSV%- DIfference)

    10/11 .899 .908 -.007
    11/12 .900 .916 -.016
    12/13 .908 .922 -.014
    13/14 .893 .881 – .014

    Given that he plays top opposition I except his ONSV% to be lower than the average.

    This lines up with that.

    Here’s Jonathan’s Toews ONSV%. One of the best C’s in the game, but plays against best comp:

    2007-2008 Season 903
    2008-2009 Season 909
    2009-2010 Season 894
    2010-2011 Season 915
    2011-2012 Season 894
    2012-2013 Season 934
    2013-2014 Season 905

  111. El Duderino says:

    The Oilers are going to play Oilers’ hockey tonight. Oo Hoo – (Oh No?).

  112. VanOil says:

    leadfarmer:
    VanOil,

    Except for that one year that Favre had a career that AP fumbled his way through the playoffs .

    Agreed, but they were only a few missed plays and some Saints Bounty Gate cheap shots away from the Superbowl that year. A 10 year younger Favre and they would have been going to Disney Land.

  113. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Rom

    I think Gordon’s Edm contract $3m per for 3 years is a big difference from Phx$1.30m and 1.35m perover 2 years. Phx was a moneypuck deal or to put it into context $200K and 150K LESS than Oilers are currently paying Ryan Jones.

    If we resign Belov it was a very good signing. At worse he is a solid 2nd pairing guy and expect as he gets more comfortable in NA we may see some more offense out of him

    You’re right about Gordon.

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/856

    I hastily mis-read you as saying Gordon was 2.65M AAV and didn’t bother to double check. my bad.

    Great move by both teams. One paid in full. So it goes. Again, I never said it was “moneypuck.”

    ———-
    Belov is a moneypuck signing whether he plays well enough to play in the NHL, gets injured on day one, or lasts beyond this year as an Oiler.

    These facts are independent of the idea of exploiting market inefficiencies, like taking a flyer on a 26 year old vet considered the “best D in the K” (by some).

    ———-
    at least we aren’t arguing about a bunch of stuff I never said anymore.
    :)

  114. Chris says:

    steveb12344: I can see what you are saying about these players, and don’t disagree.However If 29 other teams wanted no part of them, even for bargain basement prices.Can we really sit here and lament that we missed out on an opportunity to get a player that would have somehow helped save our season?

    The idea that NHL teams are being run in a rational results maximizing manner is rather mythic. Some teams are better than others. However, rather than professional evaluators of talent or managers most teams are run by guys whose only real qualification was “I used to play hockey/coach hockey at a relativley high level”. I’ve always felt this was a dubius basis on which to manage a team.

    Under a cap environment the job of the gm is to assemble a group of players that within a set block of money will most efficiently produce wins. This talent is in no way dependent upon having been able to score 20 goals in the NHL 30 years ago.

    Being able to scrutinize results from an analytics angle and make shrewd bets on bargain players on that basis is a far more relevant skill.

  115. rickithebear says:

    Chris: Hannan?

    Fistric!

  116. gcw_rocks says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Trade Gagner for Ehrhoff and keep the pick. Play Arcobello in Gagners spot and see how he does. if he can’t deliver then you can sign a stop gap in the summer while you wait for the German to develop.

  117. Gret99zky says:

    lawrenharris: Can somebody elucidate this for me?I met him once and he did not seem notably fabulously shod.

    In the first season of Oil Change they toured his house.

    He had a shoe collection that would make Imelda Marcos blush.

  118. rickithebear says:

    As i have stated:
    in front of the net pre 05-06 lockout.
    perimeter is post lockout.
    we want offensive Dmenwho can move the puck from the zone, but we also want to get Dmen who keep players from the 17-22% scoring area.
    fistric and char were 2 of the 5 best.
    chara faced better.
    but as was pointed out by robitaille. 1-6 all matter.

    We went from 1 of the 5 best 1st comp d pairs and the best 3rd comp D pair.
    only needing to fix our 2nd pair.
    to not signing one of the 5 best protectors in front of the net,
    and trading one of the best 1st comp front net protectors.

    when you look at shot results.
    me the biggest dubnyk supporter. identifies a major flaw.

    he gets lit up at 5-10 feet. the average is 27% and he averages around 27%.

    And Erhoff.
    the standard shot % yielded in the 0-20ft 17-22% zone is 35% of the shots. So 65% are 8% or less shots.
    Erhoff 25% of the shots are 0-20ft shots.
    the opposition has reduced shooting % in the 17-22% zones.
    we needthis kind of Dman in there 26-32 age range.

  119. Lowetide says:

    gcw_rocks:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Trade Gagner for Ehrhoff and keep the pick.Play Arcobello in Gagnersspot and see how he does. if he can’t deliver then you can sign a stop gap in the summer while you wait for the German to develop.

    Buffalo has a major chip, they want supreme payment. Gagner’s a nice player but he’s getting paid, and my guess is BUF could wait until the deadline and get more. The trick is to pull the trigger before the bidding war and that takes some jewellry.

  120. VanOil says:

    Chris,

    Bear baiter!

  121. art vandelay says:

    the reality is that there is a certain percentage of NHL players that would just never pack up their family and move them up to Edmonton.

    99th percentile.
    And even that’s being generous.
    How many FAs have signed in Edmonton in the past decade? Is it even 10? 5?

  122. jp says:

    Woodguy: They are all within reason given the team ONSV% each year…..except this year is a bit low, but the sample is still fairly small.

    I used to believe that players could significantly effect it as well, but time has shown me that its wrong.

    Let’s look at Hall: ( HALL ONSV% – TEAM ONSV%- DIfference)

    10/11.899.908-.007
    11/12.900 .916-.016
    12/13.908 .922-.014
    13/14.893.881 – .014

    Given that he plays top opposition I except his ONSV% to be lower than the average.

    This lines up with that.

    Here’s Jonathan’s Toews ONSV%.One of the best C’s in the game, but plays against best comp:

    2007-2008 Season903
    2008-2009 Season909
    2009-2010 Season894
    2010-2011 Season915
    2011-2012 Season894
    2012-2013 Season934
    2013-2014 Season905

    1) I agree that QoC effects could be a factor.
    2) You made a couple of mistakes with Hall’s numbers that make him look better than he actually is. The numbers should be:
    10/11 .899 .908 -.009
    11/12 .900 .916 -.016
    12/13 .908 .922 -.014
    13/14 .863 .889 -.026
    3) Are those actually small effects? They’d be massive for a goalie. And every one is in the wrong direction.
    4) What do you make of RNH and Eberle? They’ve played less difficult competition than Hall but still have very low on ice SV%. In fact, aside from 2012, all 3 guys have been more facing 2nd/3rd line competition than first.
    5) How well established is the effect of playing tough comp on on ice SV%? I checked Datsyuk’s numbers – random choice, but another good 2 way C who faces tough comp like Toews.
    13-14 907 920
    12-13 942 932
    11-12 922 923
    10-11 911 913
    09-10 923 918
    Doesn’t seem like any affect there, and Datsyuk appears to play tougher comp than Toews. I don’t think either of us is much interested in doing this for all the tough comp players in the league, but I’m not convinced this can explain what’s going on with RNH, Hall and Eberle.

    I don’t have the answers to all these questions either, but I’m still seeing something going on with the kids that I don’t think can be explained by chance or opposition.

  123. Lowetide says:

    Seguin out for tonight with concussion like symptoms. Not good.

  124. Lois Lowe says:

    If you were a hockey wife, would you move to Edmonton? I know I wouldn’t. Holt Renfrew is the only place to shop in the entire city.

  125. Lowetide says:

    art vandelay:
    the reality is that there is a certain percentage of NHL players that would just never pack up their family and move them up to Edmonton.

    99th percentile.
    And even that’s being generous.
    How many FAs have signed in Edmonton in the past decade? Is it even 10? 5?

    Past 10 years? Hmmm. Actually, more than 10. The Oilers signed Belanger, Eager, Barker, Hordichuk in one summer, and then of course Souray, Khabibulin, Adam Oates, Dustin Penner, Mike Comrie, Jason Strudwick and then Gordon, Ference and LaBarbera this summer.

    That’s what, 13?

  126. VanOil says:

    There are probably more people watching this game on Vancouver Island than there are Texans in the stands.

  127. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Past 10 years? Hmmm. Actually, more than 10. The Oilers signed Belanger, Eager, Barker, Hordichuk in one summer, and then of course Souray, Khabibulin, Adam Oates, Dustin Penner, Mike Comrie, Jason Strudwick and then Gordon, Ference and LaBarbera this summer.

    That’s what, 13?

    But how many Corgis did they sign in that period? Like 2, maybe?

  128. VanOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: But how many Corgis did they sign in that period? Like 2, maybe?

    Ruff

  129. VanOil says:

    The Dallas colour commentator is of the soft, small players can’t play hockey variety. He is making me miss Sportsnet.

  130. Lowetide says:

    Wonderful shift by Eberle there, wow.

  131. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    How many corgis did Eberle win in that shift?

    ALso, how did he not draw a penalty in there somewhere? crazy.

  132. jfry says:

    just a reminder to everyone that there’s an AMAZING prize being given away from for a trip to detroit and las vegas for two to the winter classic and the NHL awards. we’ve only had about 5 quality entries. votes don’t matter, but the quality of the answers do. all of you seem like the perfect candidates to win. we close entries tomorrow.

    http://sharkclubs.com/insider/

    that’s my last push. thanks LT. hopefully someone from this great group wins the prize. good luck.

  133. VanOil says:

    Eberle as the one man gang – corgi monster

  134. Rebilled says:

    Eberle should have 8 goals on that shift but Oilers.

  135. icecastles says:

    So the argument against Eberle playing for Team Canada is that he elevates his game even more when wearing the maple leaf sweater?

    Maybe that it wouldn’t be fair to the other teams in the tourney?

  136. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I hate our PP right now. hate it.

  137. boxman says:

    Eberle can do the Hemsky dance and he is sooo much easier to play with.

  138. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    boxman:
    Eberle can do the Hemsky dance and he is sooo much easier to play with.

    You wash that Hemsky-hating mouth out right now!!

  139. icecastles says:

    Anyone have a link for the game? Chanfeed is absolutely brutal today.

  140. skidplate says:

    Yak needs to rifle a snapshot right at that fool behind Bryz next period!!!

  141. VanOil says:

    skidplate:
    Yak needs to rifle a snapshot right at that fool behind Bryz next period!!!

    agreed

  142. skidplate says:

    Break the glass and plant the puck right between his eyes.

  143. Andy P says:

    Lowetide: Wonderful shift by Eberle there, wow.

    Are you guys paying for PPV or is there a free showing somewhere?

    Never mind, got it.

  144. icecastles says:

    Andy P,

    Chanfeed streams all the games free, but the connection is atrocious this game.

  145. VanOil says:

    The game does not seems as unbalanced as the Dallas shot counter guy seems to make it. Maybe he is the drunk Skidplate pointed out.

  146. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Special teams. brutal.

    That call on 15 was bs though… but probably the hockey Gords were trying to tell him to put the dog whistle away, esp. on the PK!!

  147. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Playing well 5×5

    http://www.extraskater.com/game/2013-12-01-oilers-stars

    suspect that shift by 14 is half the results.

    Look at the ST results though… yikers!!

  148. D says:

    Well it seems that goaltending is not a problem with the Edmonton Oilers. We have a solid NHL calibre goalie in Bryz and a serviceable backup in that other guy.

  149. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Is this Hobbit movie meant to be the final movie, or the 2nd of 3?

  150. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    D:
    Well it seems that goaltending is not a problem with the Edmonton Oilers.We have a solid NHL calibre goalie in Bryz and a serviceable backup in that other guy.

    Bachman?

  151. skidplate says:

    It is on Sportsnet, channel 114 on Shaw satellite

  152. Lowetide says:

    I have a dog, she’s smart as anythnig, really clever. Example: she scouts around for things she knows we don’t want her to have, like plastic, revolvers, you know household stuff.

    Anyway, when she finds something she goes to the nearest adult and makes obvious and overdone chewing motions. She allows us close enough to identify the foreign object, and then she puts it on the floor, puts her right foot ON IT and then waits to see if the treat we offer is satisfactory.

    I’ve owned 20 dumb dogs in my life, this one is so smart it’s incredible.

    The Oilers on the powerplay remind me of the 20, and I so wish they were the one.

  153. D says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Bachman?

    Haha. Good point! Yes!

  154. sliderule says:

    I have two cats.

    One cat loves me the other one shits on my bed

    The oilers don’t love me.

  155. VanOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Is this Hobbit movie meant to be the final movie, or the 2nd of 3?

    2nd of 3 or 4 going by how drawn out the 1st was. The commercials this morning lead me to listen to OCS again and there album Mosley Shoals. Mosley is where Tokien is from and an old watering hole area of mine. http://youtu.be/brzzM31G4x8

  156. icecastles says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    2nd of 3. In the appendices of the Lord of the Rings, Tolkein had a lot of additional backstory of Aragorn’s hunt for Golumn, Gandalf’s quest to find out about the ring, etc. My understanding is that they are inserting a lot of this into the Hobbit films to make a smoother bridge between this trilogy and the LOTR film trilogy.

  157. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    I have two cats.

    One cat loves me the other one shits on my bed

    The oilers don’t love me.

    I like the one who shits on your bed. He’s my favorite. :-)

  158. skidplate says:

    You sheet on my my bed, I keel you.

  159. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    It’s my wife’s favorited.

  160. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    I have a dog, she’s smart as anythnig, really clever. Example: she scouts around for things she knows we don’t want her to have, like plastic, revolvers, you know household stuff.

    Anyway, when she finds something she goes to the nearest adult and makes obvious and overdone chewing motions. She allows us close enough to identify the foreign object, and then she puts it on the floor, puts her right foot ON IT and then waits to see if the treat we offer is satisfactory.

    I’ve owned 20 dumb dogs in my life, this one is so smart it’s incredible.

    The Oilers on the powerplay remind me of the 20, and I so wish they were the one.

    Priceless.

  161. VanOil says:

    The Dallas commentator feels Nick Schultz is one of the best PK players in the league. I feel I prefer Acro to Acton. I am sure he is right and I am wrong.

  162. gr8one says:

    Erik Cole is terrible.

  163. Lowetide says:

    Joensuu with a very nice play there, almost a goal for Jones because of it and it draws a penalty. good job 6, now change that number!

  164. nycoil says:

    To those discussing Girardi for Hemsky. Doubt that happens right now. I think Rangers want to see where their scoring will be with Nash back in full swing. He stirred the drink Saturday afternoon in the Rangers’ 5-2 win over Vancouver. So they will likely wait until after Christmas before making any major moves, I’d think.

  165. Lowetide says:

    Ryan Jones has been better this season but that was a meathead pass.

  166. Rebilled says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed, hopefully he’s just healthy now?

    and mandatory #80′s family comes every game!

  167. Andy P says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Bachman?

    I’d rather take my chances with BTO than have DD as backup and risk having him have to play in a crucial game.

  168. TheOtherJohn says:

    Lowetide:
    I have a dog, she’s smart as anythnig, really clever. Example: she scouts around for things she knows we don’t want her to have, like plastic, revolvers, you know household stuff.

    Anyway, when she finds something she goes to the nearest adult and makes obvious and overdone chewing motions. She allows us close enough to identify the foreign object, and then she puts it on the floor, puts her right foot ON IT and then waits to see if the treat we offer is satisfactory.

    I’ve owned 20 dumb dogs in my life, this one is so smart it’s incredible.

    The Oilers on the powerplay remind me of the 20, and I so wish they were the one.

    LT with Highlander reference…….. as Ricky Bobby says best movie of all time…… “there can only be one”

  169. gr8one says:

    Lowetide:
    Ryan Jones has been better this season but that was a meathead pass.

    Indeed, but I think we may have stumbled upon something pretty good with Arco/Jones/Joensuu line, I hope they get a chance to stick together for a good string of games.

  170. Lois Lowe says:

    I really hate when Debrusk calls it “the forearm shiver”. The weapon is a shiv. Shiv.

  171. Andy P says:

    Lowetide: I have a dog, she’s smart as anythnig, really clever. Example: she scouts around for things she knows we don’t want her to have, like plastic, revolvers, you know household stuff. Anyway, when she finds something she goes to the nearest adult and makes obvious and overdone chewing motions. She allows us close enough to identify the foreign object, and then she puts it on the floor, puts her right foot ON IT and then waits to see if the treat we offer is satisfactory. I’ve owned 20 dumb dogs in my life, this one is so smart it’s incredible. The Oilers on the powerplay remind me of the 20, and I so wish they were the one.

    Would that be a Jack Russell?

  172. icecastles says:

    Well, that was… inevitable. :(

  173. Lowetide says:

    This team is dumb as a post.

  174. icecastles says:

    Lois Lowe: I really hate when Debrusk calls it “the forearm shiver”. The weapon is a shiv. Shiv.

    There is such a thing as a shiv. And it has nothing to do with what Debrusk is talking about. Which is correctly called a forearm shiver.

    I really hate when misinformed people try to “correct” others to share their misinformation.

  175. jp says:

    Hehe. Dallas announcer right before the shorty:
    “They’re hungry on that PP. They never get outmanned on the boards”.
    They don’t watch much of the Oilers I guess (not that I can blame them).

  176. gr8one says:

    Lowetide:
    This team is dumb as a post.

    The post takes offense.

  177. Rebilled says:

    …as soon as he swung backwards again, it was over.

  178. Pouzar says:

    why isn’t Nuge taking that shot on the PP?

  179. skidplate says:

    Terrible play by Grebeskov.

  180. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This damn team is allergic to recognizing danger and backing up friends.

  181. Lois Lowe says:

    icecastles,

    Explain the etymology because I think it comes from hockey players not knowing how to properly use words.

  182. Gret99zky says:

    thanks MacT for bringing back Grebs. Maybe we can trade him for herpes at the deadline.

  183. D says:

    I really like that we replaced Smid with Grebs. Great upgrade there.

  184. Pouzar says:

    This is game is f^cking infuriating me.

  185. Lowetide says:

    Okay, everyone needs to settle down. It’s a hockey game, and they’re only down by one. Wait until they’re done by 5, THEN we can get pissy.

  186. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    skidplate:
    Terrible play by Grebeskov.

    He wasn’t good there… but they had the man advantage, he was doubled teamed in his own zone and all 4 other guys were wandering in the desert. I can’t blame him.

  187. Lowetide says:

    Garbutt just killed our goalie.

  188. icecastles says:

    Lois Lowe:
    icecastles,

    Explain the etymology because I think it comes from hockey players not knowing how to properly use words.

    It is mostly a football term, when an player uses his forearm as a battering ram of sorts to knock an opposing player off balance.

    I assume you mean the definition, not the etymology. Can’t really advise you on the history or origin of the term.

    But to cover my bases, “fore” derives from old English meaning forward; “arm” from middle English though it also ties back to high German and Gothic and means… well, I think you know what an arm is; and “shiver” is a middle English nautical term meaning tremendous motion or to shake.

  189. TheOtherJohn says:

    D:
    I really like that we replaced Smid with Grebs.Great upgrade there.

    We replaced Smid with Ference. We chose Grebeshkov instead of Gilbert and paid an extra $500K for that pleasure

  190. Pouzar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: He wasn’t good there… but they had the man advantage, he was doubled teamed in his own zone and all 4 other guys were wandering in the desert. I can’t blame him.

    Saw that too.

  191. icecastles says:

    Brysgalov got shivered.

    Thank gawd he didn’t get shived.

  192. Pouzar says:

    Grebs likes looking at Garr’s Butt

  193. OilBuzz says:

    You’ve gotta be fucking kidding me.

  194. Lois Lowe says:

    icecastles,

    I meant etymology. If you use your arm as a battering ram, one might say you are using it as a weapon. What is another word for weapon? Shiv.

  195. Lowetide says:

    Bryzgalov got shoveled there.

  196. icecastles says:

    I’m predicting Dubnyk comes in and gets a shutout. Right until someone shoots the puck on goal.

  197. skidplate says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    He spun the wrong way though, he should have turned towards the boards not the center of the ice. I will blame him for that.:-)

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