OILERS RECALL MARINCIN, HORAK

The Edmonton Oilers have recalled Martin Marincin and Roman Horak from Oklahoma City. No word on injuries or anyone being sent down, but the club certainly has a lot of candidates who could sit on merit (despite the Winnipeg game).

Marincin played his first NHL games earlier this season, and Horak has quite a bit of NHL experience. I ran the Barons NHL equivalencies earlier today at ON and both men are having good seasons. Horak has played both center and wing during his time in the NHL (82, 5-13-18 all with Calgary) and is a solid two-way prospect.

horak scouting

At 22, Horak has plenty of time to establish himself as an NHL player. If he is drawing in for someone, candidates would be 3 and 4line Centers (Lander) and 3 and 4line left wingers (Smyth and Gazdic). We tremble at the thought of someone higher up the food chain being injured.

Marincin could draw in for Belov, Ference or Nick Schultz. I should also mention the trade freeze ends at midnight Dec 27, it’s important because I’ve been calling a 3-for-1 since 2006 fall and don’t want to be caught napping. Is there a top pairing defenseman on the way? A post-Christmas gift?

We wait.

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66 Responses to "OILERS RECALL MARINCIN, HORAK"

  1. cdean says:

    Only one on IR according to the Oilers website is Jones. This transaction puts them over the 23 player mark; 14 forwards, 8 defense and 2 goalies. I wonder if Arcobello or Larsen will be put on IR.

  2. Halfwise says:

    I am going to guess Lander gets sent down. Jones would be next after he comes off IR. Time to audition some Barons. As for Horak, most players get stoked playing the team that traded them away.

  3. Hammers says:

    Glad to see some proactive movement . Marincin getting another shot is good & hopefully its N.Schultz sitting and Martin with Justin .As for Horak he could be going on the wing but probably coming for Lander . Remember the next game is Calgary . I wouldn’t mind seeing Yak moving back up hopefully with Hall & RNH . Gags /Ebs & Perron . Gordon /Hemsky / Joensuu .Horak / Smyth / Gazdic .

  4. oliveoilers says:

    Obviously what we have here gentlemen, is phase two of ‘get Weber’. Phase one being the trade of O’Mark to Buff. Phase two is to dump salary by trading Gagner for O’Mark. O’Mark can then take his rightful place as the lynchpin, or key jenga block if you will of the whole deal. Nashville were very adamant about him being in on the deal. Or option two, this just a run of the mill call up. Hoping for bold, not holding my breath.

  5. jp says:

    3 for 1!! 3 for 1!!!!

    It’s probably much ado about nothing (Lander down or someone to IR), but we can dream.

  6. gr8one says:

    oliveoilers:
    Obviously what we have here gentlemen, is phase two of ‘get Weber’.Phase one being the trade of O’Mark to Buff.Phase two is to dump salary by trading Gagner for O’Mark.O’Mark can then take his rightful place as the lynchpin, or key jenga block if you will of the whole deal.Nashville were very adamant about him being in on the deal.Or option two, this just a run of the mill call up.Hoping for bold, not holding my breath.

    Huh?

    Edit/

    Nevermind, I think I sensed your sarcasm after re-reading.

  7. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Please Santa let this be Ganger heading out of town. I know it won’t be but I can only hope. LT I’ve listened to your argument about replacing Ganger with Acrobello and I can see your point with such a small sample size but I think its difficult to make an argument in favour of this roster change. First of all we could sign Arcobello for under a million. Ganger is way overpaid. Think of what we could do with that cap space(another 3.8 million dollar defencemen). He is a 40 point 15 goal scorer who doesn’t hit or play defence and is only 45% in the dot and lower than that over his career. Arcobello is physical, is good on the draw and could easily be a 40 point player with the gravy top six minutes Ganger gets. Arcobello has out played Ganger in almost every aspect of the game in his short NHL career and he has done it in his rookie season. You want a larger sample size? How about 7 years of sub par hockey from Ganger. To be honest with you LT and I don’t care if they replace Ganger with Arcobello or a toaster from Ikea. I just want this guy gone. I’ve only missed a handful of Oiler games over the past 9 years and if I know one thing its that Sam Ganger is not a top six NHL player period. In 7 years I’ve never seen him throw a big hit, score a big goal to win an important game against a good opponent or be factor in an agitating role. I like Mac T but that contract for 4.8 million was his worst move by far. There is a part of me that thinks Ganger wouldn’t even get picked up on waivers. Everyone in Edmonton knows we can’t role with Nuge and Ganger as 1 and 2 centers so lets let the elephant out of the room and spend that cap space on a player that can actually help us win.

  8. Bruce McCurdy says:

    teddyturnbuckle: In 7 years I’ve never seen him throw a big hit, score a big goal to win an important game against a good opponent or be factor in an agitating role

    You must have missed that game last season when Gagner scored in overtime to beat the Kings, who happened to be defending Stanley Cup champions at the time, so a fairly good opponent.

    Agree he has weaknesses but I dislike absolute terms like “never”, sorry.

  9. gr8one says:

    *Gagner.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Worth noting Stauffer’s guesswork:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 1h
    …And possible that neither Arcobello (ribs) or Larsen (illness) ready either…we will see

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 1h
    The @EdmontonOilers have games on back-to-back nights. My guess is Horak/Marincin called up for insurance purposes. Jones now listed on IR..

    re-posted by the Oilers…

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=24346&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Looks likely this is insurance/injury fill in situation…

    At any rate, without Omark, Lander and Horak… the 2010 draft group of forwards is going to have one hell of an opportunity to step up in OKC.

  11. jp says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You must have missed that game last season when Gagner scored in overtime to beat the Kings, who happened to be defending Stanley Cup champions at the time, so a fairly good opponent.

    Agree he has weaknesses but I dislike absolute terms like “never”, sorry.

    Agreed.

    Also,

    teddyturnbuckle:
    .He is a 40 point 15 goal scorer who doesn’t hit or play defence and is only 45% in the dot and lower than that over his career. Arcobello is physical, is good on the draw and could easily be a 40 point player with the gravy top six minutes Ganger gets.

    Career points per 82 GP:
    Gagner 82-18-33-51
    Arcobello 82-8-34-42

    That latter number of course is based on his 31-3-13-16 line this season. He started 10-0-10-10, meaning from late October on he’s 21-3-3-6 (82-12-12-24, and I’m rounding up there). I wouldn’t be ready to hand 2C to him, despite the deficiencies of the other guy. Arcobello has been good, but the lustre may already be gone. And while Gagner is FAR from perfect, he’s better than you’re giving him credit for.

  12. Pouzar says:

    I too would take Arco over Gagner in a heartbeat. We aren’t winning sh!t with either as our 2C but at 4.8 million I don’t see where Gagner fits if he’s not our 2C. And despite WG’s analysis I don’t see him as a RWer.

  13. Pouzar says:

    jp: Agreed.

    Also,

    Career points per 82 GP:
    Gagner82-18-33-51
    Arcobello82-8-34-42

    That latter number of course is based on his 31-3-13-16 line this season. He started 10-0-10-10, meaning from late October on he’s 21-3-3-6 (82-12-12-24, and I’m rounding up there). I wouldn’t be ready to hand 2C to him, despite the deficiencies of the other guy. Arcobello has been good, but the lustre may already be gone. And while Gagner is FAR from perfect, he’s better than you’re giving him credit for.

    Interesting you use PPG here but a bigger discrepancy exists between Eberle and Gagner in this stat but somehow you think Gagner would be ok to replace Eberle at RW?

  14. Ryan says:

    From the previous thread:

    Woodguy: This is where I need proof.
    Who did he play with? How many minutes? Results?

    Woodguy, let’s get serious here, lol.

    You and I both know that this data doesn’t exist in cyberspace.

  15. jp says:

    Pouzar: Interesting you use PPG here but a bigger discrepancy exists between Eberle and Gagner in this stat but somehow you think Gagner would be ok to replace Eberle at RW?

    I agree that Eberle is clearly a better player than Gagner, I just don’t think the gap is as huge as you do. And I think we all agree that Eberle has FAR higher value to other teams than Gagner. The Eberle/Gagner discussion is purely about the relative value of those players on the trade market versus their value to the team.

    Even if we say that Gagner will bring only 75% of Eberle’s offense (and I do think it would be more), the trade return that Eberle could bring likely still makes him the better chip to move. If you think Gagner is a complete pile of crap that shouldn’t be in the NHL, obviously you won’t agree.

    What struck me from WG’s WOWY numbers (which I didn’t read until after my previous posts):
    Eberle Without Hall .871
    Gagner without Hall .854
    =98%

    That may be cherry picking a little, but here are the PPG numbers:
    Gagner
    career (7 seasons) 82-18-33-51
    last 4 seasons 82-20-33-53
    last 2 seasons 82-21-36-57

    Eberle
    career (4 seasons) 82-28-38-66
    last 2 seasons 82-26-38-64

    If you take the last 2 seasons (including Gagner’s injury recovery) that’s 89% of Eberle’s offense. Maybe it’s not fair to leave the other season’s out, but I don’t think the gap is particularly huge.

    Also, Re: Arcobello, he’s clearly not established any level of play in the NHL yet, as evidenced by 6 pts in his last 21 GP. If nothing else, Gagner is clearly a 50 point player.

  16. murphy says:

    Justin Schultz and a prospect d for courtier? Then Eberle or yak for a first pairing d

  17. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    From the previous thread:

    Woodguy, let’s get serious here, lol.

    You and I both know that this data doesn’t exist in cyberspace.

    It does if you know where to look.

    You said “In 2010 he played wing”

    Ok, lets’s look at 09/10 and see which C’s he played with:

    Here’s all his Forward linemates from that year 5v5

    Gagner played 864 5v5 min

    PENNER, DUSTIN 465min
    NILSSON, ROBERT 223min
    COGLIANO, ANDREW 174min
    BRULE, GILBERT 148min
    O_SULLIVAN, PATRICK 131min
    HEMSKY, ALES 82min
    STORTINI, ZACK 79min
    STONE, RYAN 77min
    POULIOT, MARC-ANTOINE 71min
    MOREAU, ETHAN 69min
    JACQUES, JEAN-FRANCOIS 59min
    COMRIE, MIKE 43min
    PISANI, FERNANDO 42min

    Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=399&withagainst=true&season=2009-10&sit=5v5

    According to NHL.com here are the OIlers who took draws that year, and therefore played C.

    Shawn Horcoff 1337
    Ryan Potulny 820
    Sam Gagner 709
    Dustin Penner 421
    Andrew Cogliano 379
    Gilbert Brule 274
    Marc-Antoine Pouliot 235
    Patrick O’Sullivan 195
    Zack Stortini 183

    So Gagner may have played wing with Cogliano, Brule, Poo and POS.

    Penner took draws often when he played with Gagner, we also see that Penner was Gagner’s most common linemate

    Gagner only played 14min with Potulny which tells me they both played C

    So really, we don’t see any time on the wing here.

    Maybe a bit with Cogliano, but if memory serves, Gagner was the C when they played together. Their CF% was 48.2% that year, so they didn’t play too bad together.

    Now let’s look at 2010/11

    Gagner’s most common linemates. Gagner played 1053 5v5 min that year

    HEMSKY, ALES 458min
    HALL, TAYLOR 320min
    EBERLE, JORDAN 296min
    BELANGER, ERIC 186min
    JONES, RYAN 171min
    SMYTH, RYAN 152min
    HARTIKAINEN, TEEMU 120min
    PAAJARVI, MAGNUS 111min
    HORCOFF, SHAWN 82min
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 57min

    Ah ha!

    We don’t even have to look at FO’s. Gagner was probably playing wing for the 183min with Belanger, 82min with Horcoff and 57min with RNH.

    This is probably the year you are talking about.

    Looks like he played 322min on wing out of his 1053min

    Let’s look at their CF% WOWY and see how they did: (warning – sample size alert)

    With Belanger 46.3%
    Without Belanger 49.4%
    Belanger without Gagner 45.8%

    With Horcoff 50%
    Without Horcoff 48.8%
    Horcoff without Gagner 46.8%

    With RNH 42.7%
    Without RNH 49.7%
    RNH without Gagner 48.9%

    So both Horcoff and Belanger were better with Gagner and with RNH it was like oil and water that year (RNH rookie year) as they were both better apart from each other.

    Is this the year that you decided that Gagner couldn’t play wing?

    He played wing for 31.5% of the time and 82.5% of the time he played wing his C had better results with him than without him

    Awfully strange to come to the conclusion that:


    We’ve seen it back in 2010 and it wasn’t pretty.
    Gagner’s lack of foot speed, poor puck retrieval skills, and lack of size don’t make him a screaming hell on the wing.

    Based on this evidence which tells us the exact opposite of what you are saying.

  18. Woodguy says:

    Adrain Dater, beat writer for the Blue Jackets has an interesting piece up about Jan Hejda:

    http://www.denverpost.com/avalanche/ci_24791672/fortunately-avs-jan-hejdas-not-quitter

    I found this bit interesting:

    Soon after the season, Scott Howson moved from Edmonton as assistant general manager to Columbus to be the Blue Jackets’ general manager. One of his first moves was to give Hejda an offer as a free agent, but with one condition: “He said I had to decide in 30 minutes.

    I found out later that he did that because he knew Edmonton was going to make me an offer, so he wanted me to sign real quick before they could talk to me,” Hejda said.

    Just goes to show how close the OIlers were to keeping him.

    Lordy, if you’re gonna offer him a contract after he becomes a FA, why the hell didn’t they do it while he was still under contract????

    Bloody Lowe.

  19. Woodguy says:

    This quote makes me a little sad if you compare it to the Oilers:

    Hejda, at 34, is having a career year. He has three goals and seven assists, and his plus-19 leads the team. Paired with Erik Johnson, he is counted upon by Roy to play against the opposition’s top line every game.

    “I’m so happy this happened to me,” Hejda said. ” Patrick just made me play the right way. When you get older, you think your experience will be enough to play. But it’s not true. Good position is not good enough to play in the NHL anymore. You have to really skate and be one step ahead of the play in your mind.”

    Said Johnson of Hejda: “You don’t have to worry about a guy like Jan when you’re his partner. You know he’s already ahead of things. Really, it’s my job just to try and do the same right things he does.”

    Oilers could really use a guy who plays top minutes and you don’t have to worry about him.

    I though Hejda was done after his terrible numbers last year.

    Goes to show what a new coach can do.

  20. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy,

    thanks for taking the time to compile all this data. I’m amazed you find the time to do these things-I’m far too lazy.

    I seem to recall that Gagner played RW when that kid line closed out the season on a hot streak-Nilsson LW, Cogs in the middle and Gagner on the RW..was that 07…? 08..?

    Remember when Cogliano scored 3 OT winners in a row..? Good times.

    At any rate, I don’t think he’s played enough games at RW to draw any conclusions about his effectiveness(or not)

  21. cdean says:

    JP,

    The thing about Arcobello’s production between the start of the year and later is where he played, he started on the second line getting more minutes and good linemates. After Gagner came back he was moved to the wing where he was ineffective and then he was benched, after the benching he came back to the fourth line. Then after a stint there and Gordon was hurt he was 2/3rd line with Gagner struggling and after was the same when Gordon came back. He was getting better line mates before he got hurt. IT is easier to produce more points if you have higher quality line mates and more ice time. I wonder where he is place when he comes back from injury.

  22. HiddenDarts says:

    Please someone set this straight for me: do people who misspell “Gagner” do it on purpose, perhaps out of disrespect?

    Or are all “trade Ganger now”-types a wee bit literacy-challenged?

  23. Lowetide says:

    HiddenDarts:
    Please someone set this straight for me: do people who misspell “Gagner” do it on purpose, perhaps out of disrespect?

    Or are all “trade Ganger now”-types a wee bit literacy-challenged?

    combination, I’d guess. I just don’t read them.

  24. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Woodguy,

    thanks for taking the time to compile all this data. I’m amazed you find the time to do these things-I’m far too lazy.

    I seem to recall that Gagner played RW when that kid line closed out the season on a hot streak-Nilsson LW, Cogs in the middle and Gagner on the RW..was that 07…? 08..?

    Remember when Cogliano scored 3 OT winners in a row..? Good times.

    At any rate, I don’t think he’s played enough games at RW to draw any conclusions about his effectiveness(or not)

    Thanks Gerta.

    I don’t compile it though.

    Just quick with the cut and paste in excel then I get to jump to conclusions!

  25. gr8one says:

    HiddenDarts:
    Please someone set this straight for me: do people who misspell “Gagner” do it on purpose, perhaps out of disrespect?

    Or are all “trade Ganger now”-types a wee bit literacy-challenged?

    Regardless, it drives me a wee bit nuts.

    Also, there’s one Oilers TV personality, I can’t remember which atm, but he consistently refers to Gazdic as “GaDzick”… which was understandable for maybe a game or two but is still doing it.

    #peeve

  26. jp says:

    cdean:
    JP,

    The thing about Arcobello’s production between the start of the year and later is where he played, he started on the second line getting more minutes and good linemates.After Gagner came back he was moved to the wing where he was ineffective and then he was benched, after the benching he came back to the fourth line.Then after a stint there and Gordon was hurt he was 2/3rd line with Gagner struggling and after was the same when Gordon came back.He was getting better line mates before he got hurt.IT is easier to produce more points if you have higher quality line mates and more ice time.I wonder where he is place when he comes back from injury.

    You’re completely right. My post was in response to:
    “(Gagner) is a 40 point 15 goal scorer who doesn’t hit or play defence and is only 45% in the dot and lower than that over his career. Arcobello is physical, is good on the draw and could easily be a 40 point player with the gravy top six minutes Ganger gets.”

    I think this badly undersells Gagner, despite all his flaws, but I have no issue with this characterization of Arcobello. I completely agree that he could (and most likely would) be a 40 point player if given Gagner’s spot in the lineup.

    At the same time, he has only played 31 NHL games, and is a year older than Gagner. Unless I’m mistaken his production had also started to slip while still playing up in the lineup, and rightly or wrongly the coach doesn’t appear to have a lot of confidence in him. Arcobello showed well early in the year, but is far from a sure thing going forward.

    Gagner, despite his deficiencies, is a 24 year old who’s already earned himself an NHL pension. He’s put up at least 40 pts in each of his 5 full seasons, and has finished 43rd, 65th, 58th, 52nd, 44th, 18th in NHL scoring among centers (102nd so far this year). He’s a frustrating player at times (like now), but I don’t understand those wanting him run out of town.

  27. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Lowetide,

    Ha, everyone knows its “Gags” but it is funny how many people misspell Gagner. Remember LT some of us are writing from our smart phones which brings out a lot of spelling mistakes. I actually have “ganger” saved as a word accidentally because the G and N are so close on my tiny little keyboard. Once you make a mistake its almost impossible to fix it without deleting half your message.

  28. Lowetide says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Lowetide,

    Ha, everyone knows its “Gags” but it is funny how many people misspell Gagner.Remember LT some of us are writing from our smart phones which brings out a lot of spelling mistakes.I actually have “ganger” saved as a word accidentally because the G and N are so close on my tiny little keyboard.Once you make a mistake its almost impossible to fix it without deleting half yourmessage.

    huh. I honestly did not know that, thanks for telling me.

  29. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Fair point with “never” Bruce but Gagner’s moments are so few and far between that they seem irrelevant. I remember that game and I do believe Nuge set up Gagner on the 4 on 3 powerplay for a tap in. How about a play where he actually wins a puck battle and blasts it home in a meaningful game. It seems the majority of his points come in blowouts when the Oilers are already up by 3 goals.

    JP,

    there is nothing wrong with a guy getting 40 points (someone called him a 50 point player even though he has never reached this goal) but when you make 4.8 million and you stink at everything else then we have a problem. If the Oilers roll out with Gagner and Nuge next training camp is any Oiler fan going to be optimistic about our strength down the middle?

  30. Woodguy says:

    Just looked at the last 3 games of Dpairings for CAL

    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/index.php?season=2013&team=CGY&strength=EV&playertype=D&gametype=3#A

    Smid’s playing 1st pair with GIo.

    Meanwhile Nick Shultz plays a regular shift on the OIlers with the same cap hit.

    Bah!

    Russell-Brodie is a pretty good pairing too.

    When you count the problems on the Flames, Dmen are not high on the list.

  31. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes, I was referring to the start of the 2010 season. Nice job pulling some data on that btw.

    Let me clarify for the record…

    So basically, what Woodguy’s arguing is that:

    a) Gagner would be an adequate replacement for 1 RW (Eberle slot).

    b) RNH in his rookie year had a 48.9 CF% without Gagner

    c) RNH in his rookie year had a 42.7 CF% with Gagner on RW

    Okay, forget what I said earlier. You’ve now convinced me that you were right all along.

  32. Ryan says:

    “Based on this evidence which tells us the exact opposite of what you are saying.”

    Dude you just made my argument for me. :)

  33. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    Yes, I was referring to the start of the 2010 season.Nice job pulling some data on that btw.

    Let me clarify for the record…

    So basically, what Woodguy’s arguing is that:

    a) Gagner would be an adequate replacement for 1 RW (Eberle slot).

    b) RNH in his rookie year had a 48.9 CF% without Gagner

    c) RNH in his rookie year had a 42.7 CF% with Gagner on RW

    Okay, forget what I said earlier. You’ve now convinced me that you were right all along.

    You must have missed the part where RNH/Gagner had a total of 57min 5v5 TOI together.

    So you are basing you entire argument on 5.1% of Gagner’s 5v5 TOI from 3 years ago.

    C’mon, no one is that married to their narrative, or that stupid.

  34. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    There’s no need to pull out the ad hominems…

    You’re arguing that a right handed center who apparently last played RW for 5.1% of his 5v5 TOI 3 years ago is a potential 1 RW on the Edmonton Oilers.

    C’mon, no one is that married to their narrative, or that stupid.

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    gr8one:

    Also, there’s one Oilers TV personality, I can’t remember which atm, but he consistently refers to Gazdic as “GaDzick”… which was understandable for maybe a game or two but is still doing it.

    #peeve

    Yeah, I chuckle over that as well. When we first plucked him off waivers they were ALL calling him GADzic…I swear one PBP guy called him that through the first 2 periods, then someone must have pointed it out to him between periods because suddenly in the 3rd period he was pronouncing it correctly.

    And yes, the HNIC guy on Saturday’ s game against St Louis was calling him GADzic. And don’t get me started on Don Cherry-you could put a post it note on his forehead and he would still get it wrong.

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy: Thanks Gerta.

    I don’t compile it though.

    Just quick with the cut and paste in excel then I get to jump to conclusions!

    By “compile”, I meant “exerted the slightest bit of time and effort required”…:)

    Although I understand your passion for hockey and advanced stats. If this was a golf blog it would be me posting Corsi and TOI for Mickelson and Woods.

  37. 8p0intgame says:

    Ryan,

    With all due respect Ryan, I think you need to re-read Woodguy’s post.

    Woodguy’s data shows that Gagner and RNH did not play well together but Gagner did play well on Belanger and Horcoff’s wings. He played more than 5.1% of the time on the wing but only 5.1% of time on RNH’s wing. I think the general consensus is to move Eberle for a 1D, slot Yakupov into Eberle’s old spot, and use Gagner as 2RW. Something like this:

    RNH-Hall-Yakupov
    xxx-Perron-Gagner

  38. jp says:

    teddyturnbuckle,

    I never said I like Gagner at 2C, and I agree there’ll be lots of unhappy folks if it’s Nuge/Gagner to start next year. I’m fine with you questioning if Gagner can be a 2C on a good team and whether he’s worth 4.8M a year.

    But you also said:
    “I don’t care if they replace Ganger with Arcobello or a toaster from Ikea”
    and “I just want this guy gone”
    and “if I know one thing its that Sam Ganger is not a top six NHL player period”
    and “There is a part of me that thinks Ganger wouldn’t even get picked up on waivers”

    These things I don’t agree with. He certainly has issues with his defensive game, but this is a guy who finished 34th in NHL scoring last year, and 18th among centers (an 82-24-42-65 pace). Even if that’s his high water mark, he isn’t a valueless piece of garbage. He’s had an awful year this year, but he missed the first month with wires in his jaw (and drinking through a straw) and just got his face mask off last week. He will be better. Whether better is good enough for a championship caliber Oilers team is an entirely different issue. It sounds like you want to send him away at all costs, but trading him now is selling low on a real NHL player.

  39. jp says:

    8p0intgame:
    Ryan,

    I think the general consensus is to move Eberle for a 1D, slot Yakupov into Eberle’s old spot, and use Gagner as 2RW.

    Not sure you want to be calling consensus on anything just yet :)

  40. Gerta Rauss says:

    8p0intgame,

    I think you’re overlooking Hemsky-I don’t see Gagner or Yak as 1RW on anybody’s team.

  41. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Generally Flames fans and bloggers have been unimpressed with Smid, but because the Oilers only got prospects haven’t been totally unhappy with the trade.

    He’s been moved all over the lineup, from 5-6 to 1-2.

    Brodie and Russell are a good pairing. Brodie looks like he could be a good 1st pairing or a very, very good 2nd pairing in time. Russell is kind of like our Larsen – great reclamation project with offense.

    In my opinion, it is Giordano and Brodie making those pairings work, respectively.

    Calgary has some issues on D if you look past their NHL roster. Their best blueline prospects are Wotherspoon, Sieloff and Kanzig, and I’m adding Kanzig in as a freebie. Sieloff is like Dumba without the offense and Wotherspoon might become, at best, a good 2nd pairing guy the way Steve Staios was in his prime. Good enough. Kanzig is that 1970s deep freeze in your parents’ basement on skates.

    After that you have Rafikov, Cundari, Martin, Ramage, Roy, Gilmour (no relation) and Billins.

    We know all to well the rate of attrition and development curve of defensemen.

    They are going to have to trade for blueline prospects or pick them in the draft, hence my belief that Burke is going to offer up Baertschi and something for Gardiner once the trade freeze lifts.

    It will be…interesting…to see what the combination of Brian Burke and Tod Button accomplish at the draft. Button’s record in the 1st round is very poor, albeit with some interference from Darryl Sutter for a few years, and Burke’s history in the first round, outside of the very high picks, has been less-than-stellar.

    On Horak and Marincin, seems to me Larsen and Arcobello aren’t ready to go yet. Insurance. Probably not much more.

  42. edwards_daddy says:

    Given top line minutes, Gags might put up the same number of assists, but he’ll never replace Eberle’s goals. He just doesn’t have 14′s finish in his armoury.

  43. hankster says:

    Flyers Hartnell has been a fan favourite for obvious reasons. However, he may be moved as he hasn’t produced under berube’s system like he was under laviolette. While so many flyers have been thrown around here for possible trades, I like Hartnell and coburn+Pick for hemsky, gagner and petry.
    Arcobello easily fills gagners centre spot as he’s faster and much better defensively.
    After the weber for eberle and this yrs first rounder trade…then oilers fans may have a real team to cheer for rather than whispering sweet nothings for another couple years to come.
    I’m also hoping smith and buchberger takes a leave of “embarrassment”. Who else would produce results like these two and gets away with it?

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    jp: If nothing else, Gagner is clearly a 50 point player.

    You talking about the guy who, seven years in, has a career high of 49 points?

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    teddyturnbuckle: It seems the majority of his points come in blowouts when the Oilers are already up by 3 goals.

    Yeah, there have been so many Oilers blowouts during Sam’s time here that such garbage-time points would easily account for 30+ points a year right there.

    Uh huh.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    One more on Gagner. In 2011-12 he got hurt in pre-season, then rushed back to action before he was fully healthy (sound familiar?) and was put on 3RW in the soon-to-be-famous “Belanger Triangle”, where he struggled to an 0-2-2 start in his first 13 games and didn’t score his first goal until his 20th game. Somewhere in there he got moved back to the middle, can’t remember when. But on the wing, he struggled mightily. Then again, so did all of Belanger’s wingers.

  47. Pouzar says:

    jp: I agree that Eberle is clearly a better player than Gagner, I just don’t think the gap is as huge as you do. And I think we all agree that Eberle has FAR higher value to other teams than Gagner. The Eberle/Gagner discussion is purely about the relative value of those players on the trade market versus their value to the team.

    Even if we say that Gagner will bring only 75% of Eberle’s offense (and I do think it would be more), the trade return that Eberle could bring likely still makes him the better chip to move. If you think Gagner is a complete pile of crap that shouldn’t be in the NHL, obviously you won’t agree.

    What struck me from WG’s WOWY numbers (which I didn’t read until after my previous posts):
    Eberle Without Hall .871
    Gagner without Hall .854
    =98%

    That may be cherry picking a little, but here are the PPG numbers:
    Gagner
    career (7 seasons) 82-18-33-51
    last 4 seasons 82-20-33-53
    last 2 seasons 82-21-36-57

    Eberle
    career (4 seasons) 82-28-38-66
    last 2 seasons 82-26-38-64

    If you take the last 2 seasons (including Gagner’s injury recovery) that’s 89% of Eberle’s offense. Maybe it’s not fair to leave the other season’s out, but I don’t think the gap is particularly huge.

    Also, Re: Arcobello, he’s clearly not established any level of play in the NHL yet, as evidenced by 6 pts in his last 21 GP. If nothing else, Gagner is clearly a 50 point player.

    I can’t reconcile how Eberle is worth “FAR” more on the trade market but somehow Gagner is damn near Eberle’s offensive equal ( better than 75% in your opinion). So what….the GM’s in the NHL are somehow missing the boat here in asking for Eberle when they could have Eberle-lite? Cause according to what I am reading they aren’t knocking down the door for Gagner.
    It’s like a poster said earlier, teams have guys who can run these numbers and I don’t think they are coming to the same conclusions.

    And I don’t think Gagner is garbage but I think Eberle is far and away the better player to which we all agree.

  48. "Steve Smith" says:

    What would people think about trading Eberle, who probably has superior value on the market, for a stud defenceman, and then using Gagne to replace most of Eberle’s production? I think it could work – my only concern is that Gagne seems to do most of his scoring when the Oilers are already up three or four goals. Can somebody (Woodguy?) run some numbers on that?

  49. Melman says:

    WRT Smid playing 1D with Gio in cowtown – has there ever been a reasonable explanation for him getting dealt? My understanding was they could have signed Bryz with Smid still on the team. It could not have been just a hockey trade for the G and Horak

  50. Cobbler says:

    "Steve Smith",

    A wonderful summary of the thread so far!

  51. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    There’s no need to pull out the ad hominems…

    You’re arguing that a right handed center who apparently last played RW for 5.1% of his 5v5 TOI 3 years ago is a potential 1 RW on the Edmonton Oilers.

    C’mon, no one is that married to their narrative, or that stupid.

    I’m arguing that Gagner produces offense at near the the same rate as Eberle when he plays with Eberle’s most common line mates, and does it in a tougher position (C vs. RW)

    Gagner has never been a decent C without the puck and wings do not have near the responsibility that C’s do so its not unreasonable to assume he could produce about 90% of Eberle’s offense in the same spot.

    Its pretty clear (mostly from the previous post) that its a reasonable bet.

    Your one argument lay in “He sucked at RW” and I showed that not to be true.

    My derision of you was not ad hominem, my argument rested well on its own merits.

    Your argument rests on 57 mins of ice time 3 years ago with a rookie.

  52. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris,

    Thanks for the into.

    Have liked Brodie for a long time and am a huge Gio fan.

    Been reading about Russell this year too, didn’t realize he was mostly offense.

    Does he have the same chaos as Larsen?

    I think Wideman is a pretty good Dman as well (injured)

    Without looking at the underlying numbers I’d guess that Gio and Brodie are better than Petry, and that Wideman is similar (should be 2nd pairing, struggles a bit at first pairing)

    Smid started out low on the depth chart, but worked his way up to the first pair since Gio game back.

    He’s still Smid and has chaos in his defensive game and almost no offensive game.

    Still miles better than N.Shultz and would make this team better by at the very least having N.Shultz’s minutes.

    I guess Russell is out for this game and Smid is questionable.

  53. Lowetide says:

    I’m wondering about Gagnier on the wing. Maybe trade Eberle for a stud defenseman, and then move Gagnier to the wing. With Gagnoyor you’d have to see if he could flouirsh on the wing, with wing being the major question on him.

    If Woodguy would get off his ass and supply some context, we could make this Gagnyeah thing happen.

  54. Marc says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m wondering about Gagnier on the wing. Maybe trade Eberle for a stud defenseman, and then move Gagnier to the wing. With Gagnoyor you’d have to see if he could flouirsh on the wing, with wing being the major question on him.

    If Woodguy would get off his ass and supply some context, we could make this Gagnyeah thing happen.

    FTW

  55. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    There’s no need to pull out the ad hominems…

    You’re arguing that a right handed center who apparently last played RW for 5.1% of his 5v5 TOI 3 years ago is a potential 1 RW on the Edmonton Oilers.

    C’mon, no one is that married to their narrative, or that stupid.

    No, no.

    You missed this part:

    He played wing for 31.5% of the time and 82.5% of the time he played wing his C had better results with him than without him

    I apologize if English isn’t your first language and you have trouble with comprehension.

  56. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m wondering about Gagnier on the wing. Maybe trade Eberle for a stud defenseman, and then move Gagnier to the wing. With Gagnoyor you’d have to see if he could flouirsh on the wing, with wing being the major question on him.

    If Woodguy would get off his ass and supply some context, we could make this Gagnyeah thing happen.

    ITS GAGNE GODDAMIT!!!

  57. jp says:

    Bruce McCurdy: You talking about the guy who, seven years in, has a career high of 49 points?

    Yes, yes I am. Lol. He’s a 50 point player in my mind, and he’s scored at a 50 points/82 GP pace most years. Maybe I need to backtrack just slightly based on a little technicality called truth though.

  58. oliveoilers says:

    GANYE!

  59. jp says:

    Pouzar: I can’t reconcile how Eberle is worth “FAR” more on the trade market but somehow Gagner is damn near Eberle’s offensive equal ( better than 75% in your opinion). So what….the GM’s in the NHL are somehow missing the boat here in asking for Eberle when they could have Eberle-lite? Cause according to what I am reading they aren’t knocking down the door for Gagner.
    It’s like a poster said earlier, teams have guys who can run these numbers and I don’t think they are coming to the same conclusions.

    And I don’t think Gagner is garbage but I think Eberle is far and away the better player to which we all agree.

    We’re obviously speculating here on what GMs of other teams (and our team) think. I would suggest though that we’ve seen a less than stellar NHL GM up close though, and to say an NHL GM couldn’t/wouldn’t miss anything in a numbers analysis, or wouldn’t be swayed by clutch World Jr. glory is probably being too kind.

    Further to the Eberle/Gagner comparison. If you simply take their career points and GP numbers, not excluding anything, you get Eberle 0.799 PPG and Gagner 0.616 PPG. Over their whole careers Gagner has scored at 77.1% the rate of Eberle. So the 75% line in the sand is not a projection or hope or assumption, it’s reality up to this point. You can argue that Gagner gets more touches at C. I think WG is closer to the truth in that wing is an easier position to play and Eberle has benefited from better linemates. Unfortunately we can’t “know” how either player would have performed in the others role, or how they will perform going forward.

    I still THINK that the ration of perceived value/actual value for Eberle is higher than for Gagner. And only because of that do I think moving Eberle could be the better option long term. This is obviously heavily dependent on the return though.

  60. oliveoilers says:

    Pouzar: I can’t reconcile how Eberle is worth “FAR” more on the trade market but somehow Gagner is damn near Eberle’s offensive equal ( better than 75% in your opinion). So what….the GM’s in the NHL are somehow missing the boat here in asking for Eberle when they could have Eberle-lite? Cause according to what I am reading they aren’t knocking down the door for Gagner.
    It’s like a poster said earlier, teams have guys who can run these numbers and I don’t think they are coming to the same conclusions.

    And I don’t think Gagner is garbage but I think Eberle is far and away the better player to which we all agree.

    Exactly the point I tried to make on previous thread. The rest of NHL teams’ scouting is as apparently as incompetent as the Oilers. They don’t bother with the homework, they just get the players’ kids to run ‘advance simulations’ (NHL 14). All they have to do is come on this site and they would find that instead of a 23 yr old RW that is an All-Star, had a 76pt season and is top 15 RW in the NHL but on a big contract, they can have damn near the same 7 yr vet who’s had a 49 pt season, struggles mightily on defence but is cheaper. Also, it’s has been proven beyond doubt that all the potential traders have to do is include Hall and Nooj in the deal, and they basically get Eberle! Much more likely to happen!

  61. lance says:

    In Sam’s rookie year I bought an authentic white, sent it out to get crested, and no kidding it came back with a name bar that said GAGNE.

  62. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    Did I miss it, or did you post a split of Gagner’s point production per game at centre vs wing? That is, I believe, the crux of your argument.

    I would agree centre is a more difficult position defensively, but since he sucks defensively I think you need to drop that part of the argument. Again, I may have missed it, but I have never seen any evidence that centre is more difficult to play offensively.

  63. theres oil in virginia says:

    Yeah Woodguy, do some damn work! Christmas is over.

    I’m not onboard with the Gagner is 90% of Eberle analysis. As someone pointed out above, NHL GMs wouldn’t rate Eberle as high as they do and Gagner as low, if that were anywhere near true. We all know LT hates Eberle, and sees him as a threat to Hemsky’s continued Oilership, so that explains why he’s onboard. ;)

    Gagner has played 6+ seasons and not yet broken the 20 goal mark. (Caveat: His 48 game pace last year was good for 24 in 82 games – fucking Ed Snider.) Eberle has played 4+ seasons and broken it once, at 34 goals! (Yes, Bruce, I know his shooting % was through the roof. Killjoy.) (Counter-caveat: Eberle’s 48 game pace last year was 27 goals in 82 games – fucking Ed Snider – and he is widely thought to have been fighting injury all season.) Gagner is a career 10.5% shooter; Eberle is a career 14% shooter. Gagner has 96 G in 440 gm (0.22 G/gm); Eberle has 80 G in 234 gm (0.34 G/gm). I don’t see how Gagner’s goal-scoring potential could be thought of as “90%” of Eberle’s.

    One of your main tenets is that Gagner’s role has been responsible for his lesser production. He’s not been playing 4-line for 5 min/game, he’s playing (what I always read here in pre-season as) “sheltered minutes”, or “against the softs” for the last couple of years, and previously he was part of the kid line and probably played higher competition. All-in-all, a similar role as Eberle. It should be noted that when you get better linemates, you also play better competition. I don’t see that factored into your analysis (I may have missed it). Also, I think that there are enough high-scoring centers in the NHL that the position of C vs RW cannot be used as the reason for the lower scoring – as pointed out above.

    Finally, I keep hearing how Hall “drives the bus”, implying that Eberle and RNH are simply passengers. I have yet to see a robust argument for this. Your WOWY numbers above show Eberle’s dropoff away from Hall, and that has previously been used to support this contention. However, your WOWY numbers above also show Hall’s dropoff away from Eberle. I think that discredits that simple analysis as evidence of who’s “driving”. The eye also can see that when those three are together, magic! I don’t think Hall would be upset at losing Eberle primarily due to their friendship, I think he’d be upset due to all the lost production (for him), and rightfully so. Keep those three kids – hopefully they play in Edmonton for at least the next ten years.

  64. hags9k says:

    Kudos to both Woodguy and Ryan for this dialogue. I would like to see 89 on the wing for a half dozen games or more before the deadline so that we have more info before any deals are made.

    My real question, which unfortunately cannot be answered by digging the numbers, is why hasn’t Gags been taught to play effective two way hockey after 5 years in the org? What is it about our club that we can’t take a talent like him, from the mighty London Knights no less, (can’t use the poor junior coaching excuse) and make them an all around player.

    Sure, we can blame the player all day with the lazy, cheats for offense talk, but how much are the Oilers and their coaches/management responsible every time Gags gets caught also in photo. I’m saying they are 90% to blame. We need to embrace a defence first philosophy as a club. Instead we drafted a dangler and said don’t worry just dangle, we play Oiler hockey. What a shame that here we are, 5 coaches later, 0 AHL games, and one years experience 6 times… This is on the club far more than the player from where I sit.

    Will Gags excel and develop into an all around 2C on another club? I’d bet a lot of cash he will if traded. The Edmonton Oilers can’t coach their way out of a wet paper bag.

  65. Pouzar says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Yeah Woodguy, do some damn work!Christmas is over.

    I’m not onboard with the Gagner is 90% of Eberle analysis.As someone pointed out above, NHL GMs wouldn’t rate Eberle as high as they do and Gagner as low, if that were anywhere near true.We all know LT hates Eberle, and sees him as a threat to Hemsky’s continued Oilership, so that explains why he’s onboard.

    Gagner has played 6+ seasons and not yet broken the 20 goal mark.(Caveat: His 48 game pace last year was good for 24 in 82 games – fucking Ed Snider.)Eberle has played 4+ seasons and broken it once, at 34 goals!(Yes, Bruce, I know his shooting % was through the roof.Killjoy.)(Counter-caveat: Eberle’s 48 game pace last year was 27 goals in 82 games – fucking Ed Snider – and he is widely thought to have been fighting injury all season.)Gagner is a career 10.5% shooter; Eberle is a career 14% shooter.Gagner has 96 G in 440 gm (0.22 G/gm); Eberle has 80 G in 234 gm (0.34 G/gm).I don’t see how Gagner’s goal-scoring potential could be thought of as “90%” of Eberle’s.

    One of your main tenets is that Gagner’s role has been responsible for his lesser production.He’s not been playing 4-line for 5 min/game, he’s playing (what I always read here in pre-season as) “sheltered minutes”, or “against the softs” for the last couple of years, and previously he was part of the kid line and probably played higher competition.All-in-all, a similar role as Eberle.It should be noted that when you get better linemates, you also play better competition.I don’t see that factored into your analysis (I may have missed it).Also, I think that there are enough high-scoring centers in the NHL that the position of C vs RW cannot be used as the reason for the lower scoring – as pointed out above.

    Finally, I keep hearing how Hall “drives the bus”, implying that Eberle and RNH are simply passengers.I have yet to see a robust argument for this.Your WOWY numbers above show Eberle’s dropoff away from Hall, and that has previously been used to support this contention.However, your WOWY numbers above also show Hall’s dropoff away from Eberle.I think that discredits that simple analysis as evidence of who’s “driving”.The eye also can see that when those three are together, magic!I don’t think Hall would be upset at losing Eberle primarily due to their friendship, I think he’d be upset due to all the lost production (for him), and rightfully so.Keep those three kids – hopefully they play in Edmonton for at least the next ten years.

    Nice post and everything I wanted to say and more. Great point on QofC too.
    Hall and Eberle have synergy that can’t be denied for sure.

  66. VOR says:

    Bankshot and Woodguy,

    I think you are right that you need management talent to get ahead, to build a winner. I’d only disagree with two points that seem to be implied by your comments. First, we don’t know yet if Craig MacTavish has the right stuff. Far too early to say.

    Second, it still takes luck if the end goal is greatness, true greatness. Competence can only take you so far. Then comes the moment where you have to have Dame Fortune on your side.

    Imagine it is September 1991 and everything you believe you know is about to be turned up side down.

    Your team has some very good players. But it lacks any kind of balance, has no leadership, no character, and has, simply put, the worst defense in hockey. You need a stud defence man. Hell you need 2. They need to be tough, stand up for their team mates, intimidate the opposition, brash team leaders.

    Your management does exactly nothing. In fact, two more rookies are put on the blue as the 7/8 D. Now those who misunderstand history would say that was brilliant management but without knowing the outcome they’d be the first people to say that was a crap move by the Detroit Red Wings management. Call it luck, a gift from the Gords, or simply the Universe unfolding as it should, by the spring of 1992 that 7/8 D pair would be the team’s 1/2 D and amongst the very best in hockey. One of the three greatest single season NHL turnarounds is largely down to two guys who nobody expected shit from when they came to training camp. I challenge anybody to seriously suggest Detroit’s management went, “you know that vicious little smurf in Russia, the one we drafted 200 something years ago, I bet if we put him with that Swedish kid who won’t hit anybody but can run a power play we will have the best 1/2D in hockey?”

    But Detroit would still be rebuilding if it weren’t for that pacifist Swedish D Man with the odd habit of sliding along the blue line on the power play to change the angle on the point shot. In turn he wouldn’t have survived in the early days without his psychopathic, fire hydrant side kick. That guy was mean enough for two or three stud D.

    So show me a team that has won a Stanley Cup and I will show you luck. Like the team with the college kid who couldn’t play in the AHL but when given a chance proved he could play in the NHL and hung around to mentor some of the game’s greatest young talents and massively speed their learning curve. (He apparently had never heard of NHLE.) Some manager supposedly knew that a failed AHLer would be the leader a group of kids he hadn’t drafted yet would follow into battle? Give me a break. Pure gift from the Gords.

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