SIX YEARS EXPERIENCE, OR ONE YEAR’S EXPERIENCE SIX TIMES

The Edmonton Oilers are a team in the National Hockey League. Let’s take a break. Doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo doo, la la la la uh huh uh huh.

gagner common2

Sam Gagner had another “also in photo” moment in last night’s game, and it’s probably true that he’s closer to one year’s experience 6 times than the other way. I am reminded of a conversation with John Short years ago (in the darker reaches of the CFRN building) when I asked about Tom Poti. I had asked John why Poti was struggling so badly in his own end despite being in his third or fourth NHL season. John said something like ‘every level he’s played, Poti could get the puck whenever he wanted it. He’s never really had to defend and is learning it in the NHL” which made a lot of sense when he said it.

Tyler Dellow has an excellent piece on the Gagner play last night here.

petry7

My other main culprit from last night was Jeff Petry. Bruce McCurdy does a nice job of summing up the evening for the Oilers best defenseman in his player grades over at CofH:

  • #2 Jeff Petry, 2. The stats page shows Petry was on the ice for 26 shot attempts by the Oilers, just 9 by the Coyotes. Sounds pretty good! Unfortunately 2 of those 9 shot attempts against were goals, both the direct result of defensive blunders by Petry. On one he failed to cover the passing lane, allowing a ridiculously easy pass through the slot for a free shot from the low slot by sniper Radim Vrbata, with predictable results. On the other, ‘Yotes defender Keith Yandle put a deke on Petry that made him look like his skates were tied together. Took a penalty after losing a battle on the boards. Had some OK moments, but on the whole it was a disastrous game.

THE BOTTOM LINE

BOTTOM

Tomorrow is promised to no one, and the Edmonton Oilers are going to have to take a good hard look at the roster. They really do set up nicely on the wings into the future and I think they see Nuge-Gagner-Gordon as the center trio. Do they need to re-think that? Will they move 89 to the wing when Hemsky is dealt? Or do they trade Gagner and sign Hemsky?

The Petry issue is easier to explain. He’s playing too far up the depth chart, but the young man is an NHL defenseman and in my opinion the best on the team. He’s in the ‘Horcoff’ role where he’s being asked to stretch his play beyond limits and then suffer the slings and arrows of the fans when he is coming up shy.

I don’t worry about Petry. I am concerned about where they go with Gagner. He’s coming to a crossroads in his career, and today, it looks for all the world like he’s a man with one year’s experience six times.

And he’s way too smart for that.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

FILE PHOTO: LA County Sheriff To Reportedly Reopen Investigation Into Natalie Wood's Death - Press Conference Today

 

10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Michael Parkatti, Boys on the Bus. He’ll explain why a team doing so many good things can lose 6-2.
  • Alan Hull, Copper and Blue. I’ll ask Alan to guide us through last night’s loss and the good things we’ve seen recently.
  • Scott Taylor, the huddle.co. Jets, Blue Bombers may have a new coach, and more.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings pbp. The club had a monster road trip on the weekend and ran the table. We’ll also talk about the teddy bear toss game.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. This is going to be interesting!

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125 Responses to "SIX YEARS EXPERIENCE, OR ONE YEAR’S EXPERIENCE SIX TIMES"

  1. wintoon says:

    Gagner is a veteran who plays like a defensively challenged rookie. To expect the Oilers to be a playoff team much less a Cup contender with him in the 2C slot is pure folly. He simply doesn’t have the required skill set. At this juncture I would be far more supportive of re-signing Hemsky and trading Gagner than dealing Hemsky. Gagner can’t back check, can’t play the boards, can’t win a face off. In short, he can’t contribute at the 2C level.

  2. sliderule says:

    Attenhut ,about face!

  3. BrazilianOil says:

    I live on a small island in Brazil, the picture of my avatar is what I see every morning when I get to work. Here the people are happy, they like to dance samba and drinking caipirinhas.

    Logically, practically no one has heard about hockey, so the only time I mention to someone about nhl is with a Canadian tourist (toronto, montreal …edmonton people do not travel?).

    It’s hard to explain that my favorite team is and has been the worst in the league in recent years.

    Is even harder to explain that I also stay up until 2:00 PM, getting sleep only 3 or 4 hours to see my team losing every night through gamecenter with a horrible connection that almost can not see the puck.

    I just hope MACT, Lowe or whoever fix this and make me believe I’m not completely crazy.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Brazilion Oil: Ha! Great stuff, thanks for sharing. One day it’ll all be worthwhile.

  5. sliderule says:

    Dellow has it right but it’s not just Gagner.The oilers just do not defend the slot.

    That’s on the coaches .They allow them to cheat for offence with no consequence.

    Eakins has to sit guys that blow coverage and not just from the third and fourth line..

    If a period or two doesn’t smarten them up then press box.

    He shouldn’t be afraid of losing team by benching a “star”.

    He will be fired soon anyway unless he can smarten them up.

  6. regwald says:

    BrazilianOil:

    I just hope MACT, Lowe or whoever fix this and make me believe I’m not completely crazy.

    I think MacT and Lowe have a better chance of fixing your choppy internet connection than they do of fixing this roster. Stubborn and smartest men in the room.

    Setting Dubnyk adrift at the end of the year will make a lot of Oilers fans wish he was back come next season around Christmas time.

  7. nycoil says:

    BrazilianOil:
    I live on a small island in Brazil, the picture of my avatar is what I see every morning when I get to work. Here the people are happy, they like to dance samba and drinking caipirinhas.

    Is even harder to explain that I also stay up until 2:00 PM, getting sleep only 3 or 4 hours to see my team losing every night through gamecenter with a horrible connection that almost can not see the puck.

    I just hope MACT, Lowe or whoever fix this and make me believe I’m not completely crazy.

    Love Brazil for the reasons you mentioned and the happy people. Can totally relate to the losing sleep watching an awful team on gamecenter. Been a specialty of mine from Tokyo days and now New York.

    Gagner, a prospect and our first for Kesler and their second if the Canucks miss the playoffs and want to get younger? Anyone? Bueller?

  8. bookje says:

    So you watch the game and your pretty disheartened if you’re in oiler fan, but then you think it’s a goalie problem and it’ll get fixed when Bryzgalov comes back. Then you realize that the defense is also really problematic, but that could be fixed if you trade the first round pick. Then that the coach throws Arco under the bus and then you realize there is just simply no hope.

  9. russ99 says:

    Let’s take a look at last offseason again.

    The goal was to improve on defense and fix the bottom six.

    On defense, Mac T signed Ference and then went after puck movers, not players good in their own end. As if the quality of moving the puck out of the defensive zone has any bearing on how players actually defend their opponents.

    At forward, he signed Gordon, then stopped short.

    Both Ference and Gordon are doing well, but they can’t do it on their own.

    So that’s 2 players signed because how well they played defense. You can even go an extra third or half for Belov, but he’s still a work in progress.

    How can we expect different results with the same players? We can’t. The key to improving team defense: acquire better defensive players.

    Hockey is an instinctual game, and if you have to stop and think who to cover or where to go, you’re already beaten. This is my biggest problem with Eakins “everyone can play defense” motif.

  10. Clarkenstein says:

    Lowetide,

    Just not in our lifetime!

  11. Old School G says:

    REGWALD,
    Setting Dubnyk adrift at the end of the year will make a lot of Oilers fans wish he was back come next season around Christmas time.

    ****************
    I hate to be the first to do so but I respectfully and completely disagree with you.

  12. BrazilianOil says:

    nycoil,

    Kesler would be fantastic but if we deal our first and 89 for him, who gonna be the payment for the defensman we need?

    Our principal assets are: the first, gagner and the D prospects ( IMO we need to keep 4, 93,14,64 and 19 for almost two years and see if they can turn the corner).

    We need a first pairing D and a 2LC centering 64 and 57.

    The pending UFA guys can provide picks you caan exchange for a two good 3LW.

  13. sliderule says:

    russ99,

    Tippett could fix this for oil in a heartbeat.

  14. jfry says:

    Why do we think samwise is too smart for that? You always mention how Smart certain players are, but I’ve gotta ask why we assume this. Gifted with hand eye co-ordination and some sneaky visison. Sure. But sometimes there is talk about these “big brains” and i just don’t see it and don’t understand why we keep assuming that. It kinda of flies against the results and growing narrative.

  15. boxman says:

    The times they are a changing. Last nights crowd at the game was even more disturbing than the Detroit game. The Oilers season ticket holders have had all passion and hope drained from them. As the arena emptied out 10 minutes early there was little anger but just quiet mumbling and head shaking. The players themselves , Perron excepted, played like they wanted out of town and were just running out the string until the year is over. The Coyotes would have had 15 goals if the men we left uncovered in the slot all night could shoot. In conclusion no effort, no passion and zero fun.
    If someone offers you free tickets take them as you were probably the 10 person they have asked and they are depressed beyond belief at that point. Then once they are in your possession quietly throw them out and wash your hands!!

  16. cc says:

    LT, I have a question for you. If you are the GM do you sign another Gordon next off-season and play Gordon and free agent in the 2nd / 3rd line role?

    I keep thinking of Larionov’s quote: “Makarov & Krutov didn’t play defense. I was doing the dirty job for them. Markov and Krutov would be high, wiating for the pass to take off.”

    There’s several centers out there that could fit that role; Goc, Legwand, Stajan. Then move Gagner to wing where he can focus on offense.

  17. PhrankLee says:

    I have been excited about Jeff. I felt his physical play had come forward this year. I have seen more mental mistakes than I expected from a player this mature. So much looking at the puck and missing the trailer on the play. Playing above his pay grade and seeing the slumped shoulders, heavy sighs and mental mistakes will shorten this young mans career. Terrible to think that a guy who could lead all D from #3 down on this team will be lost to cannon fodder. I think the Oilers have done terrible things to young guys in this organization. I reference the handling of Anton and Magnus. Especially Magnus.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    regwald: I think MacT and Lowe have a better chance of fixing your choppy internet connection than they do of fixing this roster. Stubborn and smartest men in the room.

    Have you so quickly forgotten the preseason when none of the live streams worked and then were blacked out and we had to watch them on the Jets site?

  19. delooper says:

    jfry:
    Why do we think samwise is too smart for that? You always mention howSmart certain players are, but I’ve gotta ask why we assume this. Gifted with hand eye co-ordination and some sneaky visison. Sure. But sometimes there is talk about these “big brains” and i just don’t see it and don’t understand why we keep assuming that. It kinda of flies against the results and growing narrative.

    There’s layers to smartness, I suppose. You can be smart at fairly technical things, but lack the ability to put it all together. RNH seems to know how to put it all together. Gagner is missing some ingredients. It seems like he’s stubborn. But not having seen how his mind works that’s just a guess on my part.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Tomorrow is promised to no one, and the Edmonton Oilers are going to have to take a good hard look at the roster. They really do set up nicely on the wings into the future and I think they see Nuge-Gagner-Gordon as the center trio. Do they need to re-think that? Will they move 89 to the wing when Hemsky is dealt? Or do they trade Gagner and sign Hemsky?

    As someone who is completely biased in Hemsky’s favor, he is my preference in this race.

    But the mgt. team seems to think very highly of the one guy and not very highly of the other.

    I think we should brace ourselves for Gagner staying (not that hard really), Hemksy going (a sad, sad day) and Gagner staying at 2C (a decision that will continue to confound and lead to posts like this for years).

    It’s going to take the term of Gagner’s contract probably (maybe at the deadline of year 3) until we realistically consider a different 2C. I hope it is Draisaitl.

  21. regwald says:

    Old School G:
    REGWALD,
    Setting Dubnyk adrift at the end of the year will make a lot of Oilers fans wish he was back come next season around Christmas time.

    ****************
    I hate to be the first to do so but I respectfully and completely disagree with you.

    That’s fair. I just think the DD isn’t the problem. Team defence and play behind their own blueline is horrible. You could have a shooter tutor in net and this team would still blow defensive coverage allowing goals. DD is not all world, but he is good enough to win with. Flushing him does not solve any problems when there is no viable alternatives to replace him. Just my view of the things.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Staples has a funny praise/blame article up on Hemsky that goes through his own numbers:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/12/03/at-long-last-ales-hemsky-has-rediscovered-his-excellent-old-game-with-the-edmonton-oilers/

    A lot of compliments followed by backhanded ones and caveats, but it’s nice to see the recognition all the same.

    Also, bodes well for Hemsky’s return at the deadline when he is inevitably dealt.

  23. mustang says:

    Are we playing Oilers hockey yet?? I can’t wait for the day when Katz realizes his old buddy and pal is fucking up his team and losing him money. I’m so sick and tired of the “old boys club” having free run with OUR hockey team fuck everything up and guess what, no accountability. Unreal, shit like this doesn’t exist in real life does it? Wake up Katz, and fire 6 rings and those other 2 ass coaches that Eakins was forced to keep. I’m thinking Oilers hockey died in the 80′s. Get in the game.

  24. LMHF#1 says:

    In the game report I wrote:

    “Sam Gagner glides into the corner – presumably he had to fart or dropped a contact lens or something”

    and I’m sticking with that.

  25. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    “Six years experience or one years experience six times.”

    …or one years experience three times, two years experience once (Renney) and half a years experience once (Kreuger)… Truly Vish-ous 6 years.

  26. FastOil says:

    The worst part of being an Oilers fan is that what I was going to say is the same as what I said the first time I commented here. So I won’t say it again. The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

    Being young isn’t the issue, I don’t think ever has been. Having a flatulent head and being selfish aren’t age related issues and aren’t conducive to winning.

  27. hoser313 says:

    russ99:

    On defense, Mac T signed Ference and then went after puck movers, not players good in their own end. As if the quality of moving the puck out of the defensive zone has any bearing on how players actually defend their opponents.

    Agreed.

    I was fine with the Ference signing until Smid got traded. Now, instead of Ference replacing Whitney which was a big upgrade on defence, it is Ference replacing Smid, which upgrades puck-moving but not actually playing defence. I think it’s fair to say that if Petry has a bad game, the team loses. That’s too much pressure on Petry.

  28. OilClog says:

    How can Eakins possibly shit on Arco.. This guy needs to go, now.

  29. Caramel Obvious says:

    A few thoughts on the game.

    First, and more importantly, I don’t know how someone can watch that game and not name Justin Schultz as their number one culprit. I have come to feel about him the way I imagine other Oiler fans feel about Hemsky. Except it is all true about Schultz. Lackadaisacal is the nicest thing you can say about him.

    Second, the power play is terrible. Mostly because J. Schultz is on it. What a waste of space.

    Third, Petry’s problem is not that he is playing too high in the batting order. I demonstrated in a previous thread how quality of competition is grossly exaggerated for defensemen (the range of Qcomp is extremely small). Don’t believe me compare time on ice for last night’s game. Petry played nine minutes against the top two lines (seven minutes against Hanzal and two minutes against Ribeiro0. J Schultz played 9.5 minutes against the top two lines (four minutes against Hanzal and 5.5 against Ribeiro). N. Schultz played five minutes against the top two lines (3.5 against Hanzal, 1.5 against Ribeiro).

    So last night there was no (zero) difference in quality of competition between the first and second pairing. None. This is a fact. I’m going to repeat it so that everyone can see. Last night there was no (zero) difference in quality of competition between the first and second pairing. None. Petry’s problem is not that he is too high in the batting order. It’s the NHL no matter where you line up.

    So, unless you think adding another Dman is going to send Petry to be hid in the bottom pairing he is currently exactly in the batting order he needs to be. Simply put first and second pairing defensemen face the same competition night after night and bottom pairing defensemen get it only slightly easier (N. Schultz played a whole 1.5 minutes more against Halpern than Petry).

    Fourth, for most of the game the Oilers were once again the better team at even strength. I’m giving credit for this to the coach. This recent run of play is easily the most organized the Oilers have looked since I started watching. It makes the losses more frustrating but things are looking up at even strength. The results are concealing this fact but reasoning from results leads to bad reasoning. That said, the goals resulted from soft, soft, play and pretty big mental breakdowns. Consistency is a problem.

    Fifth, the power play is a disaster right now. Some of that is the formation with one guy at the top and some of that is that Justin Schultz is terrible. This team needs a powerplay defenseman badly. Justin Schultz isn’t that guy. Soft, slow, casual, terrible.

    Sixth, I love Arcobello and don’t like that Eakins apparently singled him out. However, he did play the Gagner role on a couple of those goals. In the big picture though the Arcobello–Perron combination killed it. Yakupov, however, was a passenger. Splitting him up from Hemsky and Gagner was a bad move since we all know Ryan Jones is terrible.

    Seventh, Justin Schultz is a fucking catastrophe. He’s the guy to trade if he has any value at all. Hate that guy. It’s bordering on unreason now but I really hate him. How can you guys not hate him. He has a serious case of the backpfeifengesicht with his head held high while he casually stickhandles the puck onto his opponents stick.

    Eighth, this team really is better. They just need some real D to provide some stability and focus.

    NInth, Jordan Eberle, you might be the best player, but let me introduce you to the one-timer. Please.

    I think that’s enough.

  30. Truth says:

    I think it’s about time we start to question Eakins. It seems to me that Eakins has convinced MacT that he wanted his defensemen to be mobile and have the ability to move the puck. He believes that his system alone, when executed to perfection, will make up for the individuals lack of defensive ability. The system is an attempt to force the team into making dumb offensive turnovers by pressing the puck while blocking the easiest passes for the offensive player. This means to pressure the opposing player in the corner, while blocking the pass to the point and to the closest support player, typically leaving one player wide open near the net. Unfortunately for Eakins and the Oilers, this is the NHL not the AHL and the players have the ability to make the difficult pass. The Oilers have been consistently burned by this.

    Smid and Fistric are replaced in the lineup by Belov and Grebeshkov. Physicality and toughness apparently replaced by offensive ability and puck moving skills. The mantra for defensemen is always defense first. A pairing of Grebeshkov and J. Schultz shows me that defense is not a concern. They were consistently matched with the Oilers top line in an attempt to provide the offensive stars with the puck at all times. This is a horrible strategy if they cannot get the puck from the opposing team.. You need the puck to be able to make nice passes with it.

    The Oilers woes are in front of their net and in their own zone. Last night the Oilers got beat up in front of the Coyotes net every single time they were within a 10 ft radius of the net. The Oilers system is designed to leave those players alone in their own zone. They need to be harder to play against, plain and simple. Take a few liberties, cross check, elbows, facewashes after the whistle. The Oilers thrived when Pronger or Smith would make opposing player wince at the thought of standing in front of the net, not a single Oiler player is capable of doing that now.

    I know I’d love to play against the Oilers. They have great young players, but risk a few penalties early by being physical at every chance and the young players will disappear. Meanwhile you can skate around the ice with total confidence knowing you will not be hit. It’s practically a night off. 5 minutes of watching video and you know the Oilers will pressure hard leaving the far man wide open. Easy coaching adjustment.

  31. denny33 says:

    Tyler Dellow thinks Sam Gagner is the Oilers best 2C since Messier.

    I am gobsmacked.

    While all I hear – and I am not being glib – he is the most popular centre in the NHL.

    Sam Gagner plays Centre. Mike Ribero plays centre.

    No need to to perform calculus. No knowledge of “complicated” systems required.

    Jeff Petry is our best defenceman. Ouch. For the last month or so Jeff is putting a body of work together that is border line AHL.

    Sam Gagner was signed to a contract by Craig McTavish – who felt the need to include NTMC.

    Arco showed the wisdom of the Edmonton Oilers organization by again being the worst player on the ice again last night. Hope he is not a healthy scratch next game.

    Dallas Eakins to Craig McTavish:

    “I think I am going to sit Arco for a few games”

    Craig McTavish: – just blinks and stares back at Dallas….

  32. LMHF#1 says:

    denny33:
    Tyler Dellow thinks Sam Gagner is the Oilers best 2C since Messier.

    Arnott or Weight, depending on who you view as having been 2C would be the answer here, wouldn’t it?

    Mike Peca in the playoffs, but only the playoffs.

    Jarret Stoll was certainly very good for a time.

  33. Traktor says:

    Turned off the game after DD missed a routine fly ball on the 3rd goal.

  34. leadfarmer says:

    So the wheels are coming of of Petry after Smid got traded, who saw that one coming. Smid wasnt the greatest defenseman, but he always made whoever played with him look pretty good.

  35. denny33 says:

    LMHF#1,

    Arnott or Weight, depending on who you view as having been 2C would be the answer here, wouldn’t it?
    Mike Peca in the playoffs, but only the playoffs.
    Jarret Stoll was certainly very good for a time.

    ******************************************************************************

    Depending who you to talk to Cody Hodgson or Sam Gagner are the worst players at the C spot in the league in their own end.

    Personally, all of the players you listed are BY FAR the better centreman. By Far.

    How many times does Craig McTavish going to watch Sam Gagner skate to the corner in his own end – while the guy he lost the draw to – is standing by himself in front of our net eating cherries and picking corners?

    So sick and tired of Sam Gagner……

  36. denny33 says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Sixth, I love Arcobello and don’t like that Eakins apparently singled him out. However, he did play the Gagner role on a couple of those goals. In the big picture though the Arcobello–Perron combination killed it. Yakupov, however, was a passenger. Splitting him up from Hemsky and Gagner was a bad move since we all know Ryan Jones is terrible.
    ***********************************************************

    I agree with you – I thought Arco killed it…including taking the body smartly and taking the puck away from some bigger Coyotes.

    You are going to have to decide how Dallas Eakins could possibly sit out Arco – then single him out after last night.

    Personally, I am not sure what more Arco can do to unseat Sweet Stuff Gagner from the 2C.

  37. Bob Arctor says:

    denny33:
    Tyler Dellow thinks Sam Gagner is the Oilers best 2C since Messier.
    I am gobsmacked.

    Did you read Tyler’s article or just skim? He was referring to a post from 2011. Seems like his opinion might have changed…

  38. Hammers says:

    LT you picked on the 2 of the 3 players that need to give there heads a shake and I add J.Schultz . Right now I would applaud McT if he had the guts to move one of them . Petry or Schultz plus our 1st should get us a # 1 “D” who plays all aspects of the game . As for Gags you put it perfectly a player with his experience should have grown way more than he has . If management likes him , fine but put him on the wing . So if we don’t make a trade put Gags on the wing with RNH & Hall then Ebs with Arco & Yak leaving us what would be our best line Gordon Perron & Hemsky . .Sometimes I think Eakins head is up his arse with not only his lines but how he uses them .I had never quit on this team until last night when I changed channels . Thank god I now split season tickets and don’t pay the whole thing .

  39. hoser313 says:

    Interesting article by Scott Cullen at TSN. Scroll down to zone starts:

    http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=437097

  40. RMGS says:

    BrazilianOil: I live on a small island in Brazil, the picture of my avatar is what I see every morning when I get to work. Here the people are happy, they like to dance samba and drinking caipirinhas.

    Please tell me you’re referring to Ilha de Boipeba. It’ll be good to wallow in sorrow over cachaça with another Oilers fan when I buy property there in retirement (after the string of bank robberies, of course). What’s the real estate market like there, nowadays? It was still reasonable in late 2011…

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    2 hours ago
    @TSNBobMcKenzie: As @DarrenDreger reported, Henrik Lundqvist’s extension with NYR is for seven years with an AAV of $8.5M.

    2 hours ago
    @DarrenDreger: 7 years, $8.5 per is believed to Lundqvist’s extension agreement.

    So… wow… Slats gets it done… that’s a big chunk of goalie money for a long time. The cap better rise for NYR!

  42. bookje says:

    I’ve figured it out. Arcobello is the whipping boy for Hall and Gagner. Whenever either of them has a bad game, Arcobello gets called out and/or sat for the next game.

  43. bookje says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Somebody forgot to tell Slats to never sign a goalie long term.

    Strombone2 is available on Twitter…

  44. David says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    2 hours ago
    @TSNBobMcKenzie: As @DarrenDreger reported, Henrik Lundqvist’s extension with NYR is for seven years with an AAV of $8.5M.

    2 hours ago
    @DarrenDreger: 7 years, $8.5 per is believed to Lundqvist’s extension agreement.

    So… wow… Slats gets it done… that’s a big chunk of goalie money for a long time. The cap better rise for NYR!

    I guess Talbot will be going somewhere else soon.

  45. TheOtherJohn says:

    bookje:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Somebody forgot to tell Slats to never sign a goalie long term.

    Strombone2 is available on Twitter…

    Really like Lundquist. Incredibly stupid deal. And that’s if the salary cap goes to $75-80m Goalies are a bad investment later in their career. Per Eliotte Friedman

    Since 1967, 26 times has a starter aged 31+ posted a save pct of .920 or better in a season: http://t.co/HxDXgWbv0v

    That’s 47 years and lots of goalies older than 31

  46. bookje says:

    TheOtherJohn: Really like Lundquist. Incredibly stupid deal. And that’s if the salary cap goes to $75-80mGoalies are a bad investment later in their career. Per Eliotte Friedman

    Since 1967, 26 times has a starter aged 31+ posted a save pct of .920 or better in a season: http://t.co/HxDXgWbv0v

    That’s 47 years and lots of goalies older than 31

    To be fair from 1983-1995, only one goalie of any age posted a save percentage above .920 (with more than 5 games played). I am not sure about earlier era’s (data was not available). So you kind of need that context when considering that stat.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    bookje: To be fair from 1983-1995, only one goalie of any age posted a save percentage above .920 (with more than 5 games played).I am not sure about earlier era’s (data was not available).So you kind of need that context when considering that stat.

    To be even more fair… if you change the start age to 22 you come up with only 60 events

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1968&year_max=2013&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=22&age_max=46&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=G&handed=&c1stat=save_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=.920&c2stat=games_goalie&c2comp=gt&c2val=50&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=games_goalie

    Just barely double. Or, setting the bar at >= .920 is really damn high. Most goalies have trouble doing this once in their career let along multiple times. 50 games is a high bar too.

    But, that’s the point. That contract has to clear a really damn high bar to make sense.

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    One final point on the Lundy deal: that’s full price, but it is a UFA price and it is only money to secure the player.

    That is important.

    UFA is a whole different ball game in the NHL which strangles the bargaining potential of its players until UFA status.

    And, money is often the cheapest way to secure players meaning you pay a premium in dollars to save on assets.

  49. Lois Lowe says:

    THUNDEROUS BODYCHECKS!

    MACT IS RUINING SCHEMP!

    TOBY PETERSON IS A PLUG!

    All of this has happened before and all of this will happen again. So say we all.

  50. bookje says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: with only 60

    The point is that the bar is high, but it may actually be that age is totally irrlevant (at least the cutoff John included of 31+)
    .

  51. Melman says:

    delooper: There’s layers to smartness, I suppose.You can be smart at fairly technical things, but lack the ability to put it all together. RNH seems to know how to put it all together.Gagner is missing some ingredients.It seems like he’s stubborn.But not having seen how his mind works that’s just a guess on my part.

    In the immortal words of Forrest Gump: “Stupid is as stupid does”. There is ZERO chance that during his 7 years of NHL employment + all of his junior hockey, minor hockey and breakfasts with dad Dave that he has not been told hundreds (maybe thousands?) of times that as a C in your own end you need to be aware of protecting the slot. I don’t care who the coach is or what name they call their defensive system, this is on the player. Character in the room or not it’s a strong comment against Gagner that this play is still repeatedly part of his game. This is no different from Ladi having to learn the back door play, which he did…in under 7 years.

  52. lawrenharris says:

    Facebook post this morning from a female friend of mine: “The Oilers these days are like a college boyfriend: often fun and charming, full of potential, but ultimately just not worthy of your ardent affection. If you think they are more than they are, you will always be disappointed. They will skip your mom’s birthday party to go on a pub crawl with a cool guy named Cody. They will see you coming up the driveway with armfuls of groceries and smile and wave. They just aren’t there yet, and they will break your heart.”

  53. bookje says:

    Just to further my argument.

    Out of 421 seasons played by goalies aged 18-30, only 34 had seasons with save percentages above 0.920 or about 8% of them

    Out of 183 seasons played by goalies 31-46, 26 of them were seasons with save percentages above 0.920 which is 14%

    (update – this only actually includes save percentage from 83 onwards because there is no data earlier than that – so in both cases the under 0.920 data is larger than justified. With that said, save percentages that high are kind of a post 1990 thing so its still probably accurate).

    So, the point is, be careful with statistics, they can lie.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Clearly, LT… the answer is QJ.

    Just listen to The Wall, Thriller and Bad and then listen to Dangerous.

    There are good pop songs on Dangerous… but it is missing a steady hand on the tiller.

  55. RexLibris says:

    Lois Lowe:
    THUNDEROUS BODYCHECKS!

    MACT IS RUINING SCHEMP!

    TOBY PETERSON IS A PLUG!

    All of this has happened before and all of this will happen again. So say we all.

    (In unison) SO SAY WE ALL!

    Can’t praise you enough for the BSG reference.

    Cue the final question: is this enough to finally break the cycle?

  56. bookje says:

    bookje,

    So as an update using only years for which there are data.

    Aged 31 and up: 26/151 seasons = 17.2%
    Aged 18-30: 34/322 seasons = 10.6%

    I think the key differences is that most of the question mark goalies are weeded out by their 30s.

    In any case, there is no evidence that goalies over 30 are a bad bet.

  57. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Clearly, LT… the answer is QJ.

    Just listen to The Wall, Thriller and Bad and then listen to Dangerous.

    There are good pop songs on Dangerous… but it is missing a steady hand on the tiller.

    Wait. I must have missed the first part of this thread. Are you talking about a Roxette album?

    This team’s struggles are having a bigger impact on the fan base than I thought.

  58. FastOil says:

    Staples has a piece about Belov and his struggles at CoH and suggests they need some better assistants.

    It made me think that a coach is in a really tough position if the players see the GM as unable to make deals.

    At the highest level, success will only come with 100% effort and buy in. There is no room for error or let down, the opponent will almost always take any advantage given, especially as the season progresses.

    If the players perceive, even subconsciously, that deals won’t be made because the team can’t get it done and the doofus GM even says it publicly (which is 2X foolish in every way) the foot comes off the gas that tiny bit. Which is also the worst thing about a NTC.

    How many Boston Bruins feel they don’t have to give 110%? I am thinking about none. That doesn’t mean players won’t struggle, it means the struggle will be a normal slump and not attitude related.

    I believe until the Oilers can begin finding larger deals again Eakins will have trouble with this group. LT’s 3 fer’ is desperately needed.

  59. gcw_rocks says:

    The Oilers cannot afford to re-sign Hemsky and fix their defence unless there is a MAJOR jump in the cap next year. We are talking over $70M. The math just doesn’t work.

    If they fix the defence, they also cannot afford to move Sam to the wing and keep Yak and Perron unless the intent is to replace Sam at centre with a bargain basement contract like Arco’s.. If they invest the right amount of money in their defence, they can afford maybe one $3M player on their third line, and that’s Gordon.

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    lawrenharris: with a cool guy named Cody

    Ha!

    Or Grant. Or Foster. Or Chad.

    Those guys are always going on a crawl.

  61. BrazilianOil says:

    RMGS,

    Wow! Almost, morro de sao paulo, just a few miles north. I buyed a piece of land in 2006 ! If you are interested i’m selling 50m front beach.

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: Wait. I must have missed the first part of this thread. Are you talking about a Roxette album?

    This team’s struggles are having a bigger impact on the fan base than I thought.

    LT ended his show saying Connor was the best producer in the business, paused and then said, “or maybe Quincy Jones”

    The answer, of course, is QJ. No slouch as an arranger and conductor either. Check out what he does with this classic Nat Adderley piece, Hummin’, which was recorded first by him and his brother live alongside Rev. Jesse Jackson in 1969 for an inner city food drive:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g5l0mOWid4

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country_Preacher

    Incidentally, if you want to get a feel for the power Jackson had as an orator in a troubled time and how he managed earn a lasting appeal amongst a select community, look no further than his introduction to this Joe Zawinul jam Walk Tall:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyMg2bLpG4w

  63. godot10 says:

    Justin Schultz has played less than 80 NHL games, and is being asked to play 2nd pairing minutes. He is not the problem

    Brian Rafalski had to go to Europe for 4 years, and then returned to the NHL on a team that had Stevens, Niedermayer, and White.

    Jake Gardiner is in his 3rd NHL season and is still a 3rd pairing D.

    Nick Leddy is still a 3rd pairing D in Chicago.

    It took awhile for Kris Letang also.

    Bryan Campbell has a couple of years in the AHL, and a couple of years on the 3rd pairing with veteran stud and mentor James Patrick.

    Justin Schultz is part of the solution. He is NOT a or the problem.

    Anybody who thinks so is crazy, IMHO.

    Oilers shot metrics turned for the better when he returned to the lineup, and they started winning an occasion game.

  64. Andy P says:

    If we want to get any accuracy into our thoughts and suggestions concerning MacT, we need to take what he says as parameters of his thought process. We also need to factor in that the Rogers deal has to have a profound impact on the cap, unless the owners find a way to minimized the impact of the deal in cap terms, being the weasels so many of them are.

    MacT has made it clear he has a core of 8 or 9 players that he does not intend to trade. I’m guessing (in any order) Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Gagner, Yak, Perron, Ference, Jultz and Petry. If I missed a “Core” player then let me know, and who on this list that player would replace.

    I don’t think Jultz is a bad player, I think he is a gifted player that is being poorly coached/handled (because Oilers). I’m sure we could strengthen the team by replacing Jultz or Gags, but they are not going anywhere as long as MacT is in town (because Oilers).

    I agree that Arco is our best “non-roster” player and I’m sure he is a bargaining chip. (because Oilers) Whipping boy, perhaps and I lost a lot of respect for Eakins with that comment.
    Which is a big fat travesty. Arco lifts whatever line he plays on.

    We can never be a good team with DD in net. Too inconsistent as a starter, and not a person I would like to step into the crease during a playoff run if our #1 goalie gets injured. For this year, DD and Bryz were an ok Tandem, if Bryz ever plays again. Given the choice I think we would be a better team next year with Bryz in net and BTO as backup.

    Our needs:
    1) That true #1D.
    2) Another Perron to move around the lineup
    3) Healthy Bryz and BTO
    4) Consistency

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    That’s how Cannonball, Nat and Axelrod arranged, conducted and produced it (Hummin’). Loose, punchy, freewheeling and masterful.

    Now give QJ’s version a go:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhx77tT4Uco

    Tight, focused, beaming with clarity. He’s taken it from the barroom to the orchestra pit, expanded the range and reach but left the raucous core.

    I don’t have a preference, but man am I blown away by the beauty and verve of the two versions.

    Nat on composing the tune (well worth a read, amazing story):

    NA: You pick a — “Hummin.’” Boy. Well I guess the only way to do it is to tell you the way that it really was. “Hummin’” was written about an old woman who lived on my street when I was a little boy again in Tallahassee. Miss Sally was her name. Miss Sally. Southern people have strange ways of saying things. But there was Mrs. Coleman lived there, Mrs. Lasser lived up the street and Mr. Lasser. Miss Sally was about 80 years old but she was “Miss Sally” there was no man there. She was a tall, Black woman and I describe it — she looked like they look in “Roots” like the ladies looked. She wore that long dress, as long as an evening gown and she wore an apron, and the apron was as long as the dress. Miss Sally must have been about six feet tall. She was a tall, African-looking black woman. Miss Sally sat in this rocking chair on her porch. And her front porch was of course the houses were boards, little wooden houses. She sat in this rocking chair on the front porch and she had a loose board on that porch. And that’s where she had the rocking chair. And Miss Sally would sit there and rock, and like, for example, shell peas, shelling peas. You take the peas out the shells. She’d take the peas out the shells, drop the peas in the pot that she was holding in her lap, and the hulls in the apron behind the pot. Now and then she’d move the pot and dump the shells on a piece of paper on the floor and then go back to shelling peas. Meanwhile she would rock. And on that loose board when she’d rock forward, the board would hit — bomp. And when she’d rock backwards the board would hit from the front and rear — bu bomp. So she’d be rocking — bomp, bu bomp — bomp, bu bomp — bomp, bu bomp. All us little boys used to come by. We used to like to, because Miss Sally was a bit eccentric — at least I know now that she was eccentric, we just thought Miss Sally was crazy, but after I went to college I learned that there was such a word as eccentricity. Once she’d keep this stuff going, we’d say “Miss Sally you want us to fix that board?” Miss Sally say “get the hell out.” So we’d leave. Now, years, later when I was thinking about that again, I wrote this song. Oh, I left out a part. Miss Sally used to humm little churchy sounding things, [humms], kinda Gospel sounding. Meanwhile, — bomp, bu bomp — bomp, bu bomp.

    MR: [to Romy, off camera] You’ve gotta hear this song.

    NA: So I wrote the song. A little later on, and this is the addendum to it. I was living in New Jersey and had this big house, and my mother was visiting. And my mother came downstairs one morning, and she’d been listening to the radio at night. My momma said “listen — why don’t you write a song that’s got some meaning, like ‘Stardust?’” She said “you and your brother write them little ittilie boobly songs and they don’t have no meaning.” I had just done it. I said “you know that song I got called ‘Hummin’,’ the new one?” She said “yeah.” I said “you know, Quincy Jones recorded it, Cannonball recorded it, I recorded it?“ I said “you know that song is about old Miss Sally.” She said “what?” I said “you know the rhythm represents that board hitting — bomp, bu bomp — bomp, bu bomp — and melody is something like an old, Gospel sounding thing [humms].” And Momma say “yeah,” kind of skeptically, “yeah, sure.” But that night we were working down in the Village at a place called the Village Gate. Momma came down that night, and we played “Hummin.’” Momma, she called me over to the table: “hey, come here, boy” she said. “You know I listened to that song, and now that you told me what it means,” she said, “I could just see that old woman sitting on the porch and the board hitting,” and she said “you know old Miss Sally been dead about fifteen years now, but we all remember that old board hitting.” So she said “now that I see that, you know, and I’m gonna get off your case.” That’s when I knew Momma was hip. She said “I’m gonna get off your case and I’m going to say, I agree, your songs have meaning.”

    source:

    http://jazzbackstory.blogspot.ca/2009/01/hummin.html

  66. gcw_rocks says:

    godot10,

    Mactavish is the problem. And above him, Katz is the problem.

  67. bendelson says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Grant and Foster may be cool cats but Chad is just an asshole.

    In regards to the Oil, lets hope the light goes on simultaneously for all those that continue to learn on the fly – and soon.

    If Yak and/or Schultz are on the Gagner learning curve all hope is lost.

  68. Hockeyman 99 says:

    - Dubnyk is a strong back-up not a starter

    - Oil missing # 1 and 2/3 Dmen and need to be careful not to overpay the 2/3,4,5,6,7 they have right now or they will have to be moved like Smid. Once they get a real #1 and 2 they will need a 3 and 4 because they overpaid who they have right now and will have moved them if they aren’t careful.

    Sam has to go. I still think TO for Gardner or Franson and a 2015 1st or Reimer or Gauthier

    Eakins is befuddled after games. I think he was talking about Gagner not Arco, He has done it before.

    We need a big centre for line 2, a 1D and a 2/3D all of which will probably have to come through the draft as the cap is going way up and there is no pressure for teams to move a real #1D or Big center.

  69. godot10 says:

    MacT is developing quite a track record of giving away actual NHL defensemen, from teams short of actual NHL defensemen.

    Jan Hejda. Joni PItkanen. Ladi Smid.

    MacT has also now chosen Denis Grebeshkov over Smid twice, and Grebeshkov over Gilbert once.

  70. Showerhead says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Third, Petry’s problem is not that he is playing too high in the batting order.I demonstrated in a previous thread how quality of competition is grossly exaggerated for defensemen (the range of Qcomp is extremely small).Don’t believe me compare time on ice for last night’s game.Petry played nine minutes against the top two lines (seven minutes against Hanzal and two minutes against Ribeiro0.J Schultz played 9.5 minutes against the top two lines (four minutes against Hanzal and 5.5 against Ribeiro).N. Schultz played five minutes against the top two lines (3.5 against Hanzal, 1.5 against Ribeiro).

    So last night there was no (zero) difference in quality of competition between the first and second pairing.None.This is a fact.I’m going to repeat it so that everyone can see.Last night there was no (zero) difference in quality of competition between the first and second pairing.None.Petry’s problem is not that he is too high in the batting order.It’s the NHL no matter where you line up.

    Where are you getting your head-to-head time on ice data? I’d like to have a look at a couple of games.

    Edit: found some charts at extraskater.com – this, right?

  71. godot10 says:

    MacT also gave Joensuu, Acton and Ryan Hamilton 2-year NHL contracts.

    Even Tambellini didn’t hand out 2-year contracts to AHL mid-twenties veterans who were really no-longer prospects but only depth type marginal NHL’ers at best.

  72. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10:
    MacT also gave Joensuu, Acton and Ryan Hamilton 2-year NHL contracts.

    Even Tambellini didn’t hand out 2-year contracts to AHL mid-twenties veterans who were really no-longer prospects but only depth type marginal NHL’ers at best.

    At least Acton and Hamilton were 2-way deals. They remain, IMO, curious and unnecessary bets (probably favors — unearned — to new head coach).

    But giving Eager 3 years, 1 way. The Khabi deal, the Belanger deal, the Barker deal, and on and on… MacT has a long way to go to come near living in Tambo’s shade.

  73. Caramel Obvious says:

    godot10,

    Gardiner leads the Leafs D in TOI at even strength. That’s a strange definition of third pairing.

    It actually shows how misleading the terminology of pairings really is. By Qcomp the Leafs first pairing is clearly Phaneuf and Gunnarson and yet Gardiner gets more ice time at even strength (Phaneuf gets more overall but Gunnarson doesn’t)

    However, they have no clear second pairing. Reilly plays tougher competition but, as discussed above, the difference is relatively small and not very consequential. Franson also plays tougher competition but the difference is even smaller. Gardiner plays more than both of them.

    The terminology of pairing is in need of definition. Right now it is a term that means nothing and insofar as it means something, Gardiner is a second pairing defenseman (as is J. Schultz).

    The important point is that the term needs to be banished from conversation. It means nothing. Worse, it actively misleads by conveying conceptual baggage that interferes with clarity of thought, and implied data that is not found in the actual data.

  74. OilClog says:

    Staples suggesting the Oilers need better assistants.. People have been talking about that fact on this blog for a few centuries now. Smith’s D-corps are always lost, what does Bucky do? I’m not sure what Acton’s duties are other then to say “yes”. Why does the goalie that comes in from the outside untouched from our coaching.. Look like the only goalie that knows how to stop the puck.

    If Eakins eventually gets turfed.. Then what? The return of MacT? Would anyone reputable even want the job? Good Gord we’re Ducked!

  75. Showerhead says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Thank you. You’ve mentioned a couple times recently that you believe the quality of competition faced by top 4D are

    You have said a few times lately that quality of competition is pretty much the same for top 4 defensemen. I think you might be on to something – it’s possible that we overrate the size of difference between pairings. I also think that you’re wrong – there is definitely a difference between the top 2 pairings.

    Let’s look at how Phoenix played against Edmonton last night. Here, we have a couple of advantages – they have a clear #1 guy (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) and we have a clear #1 line (my placeholder is Hall). We also have a clear #2 offensive line (my placeholder is Gagner). The third column is minutes vs Hall + minutes vs Gagner.

    Hall Gagner
    OEL 6.8 // 3.3 // 10.1
    Stone 6.3 // 2.9 // 9.2
    Morris 4 // 7.5 // 11.5
    Schlemko 3.4 // 6.9 //10.3
    Yandle 2.9 // 3.2 // 6.1
    Murphy 1.8 // 3.2 // 5

    If you look only at the TOTAL ice time against lines 1 & 2, the conclusion is that all of Phoenix’s top 4 D played pretty much the same competition – in fact, Morris and Schlemko (the #2 pair) seem to have had tougher sledding at 5-on-5. If you consider Hall’s line to be more dangerous than Gagner’s (and I do, strongly) then you see that there is a huge difference. OEL and Stone more against Hall than all four other defensemen combined. Not all top 4 minutes are created equal, not by quite a stretch.

    The problem, I think, is that if you want to win a Cup, you’re going to have to beat a team whose 2nd line is a whole lot better than Edmonton’s is right now. Maybe that’s your real point.

  76. Wolfpack says:

    Got to agree with Boxman on this one – this game could have been 10-2 if the Coyotes could hit the net. I can’t recall the last game I saw where one team had so many grade A scoring chances in the slot. Dubnyk could have been better, but he was hung out to dry last night.

    And the Oilers passed up so many quality shooting chances – it is like they are allergic to goal-mouth scrambles where they bang in a rebound.

    But let’s be honest, the reason why everyone left ten minutes early was to warm up their cars.

  77. OilClog says:

    MacT will take over for the rest of the season, bringing Messier in as an assistant, with Gretzky taking a special advisory role. In the summer Moose is named head coach and everyone’s heads explode.

  78. OilClog says:

    Wolfpack:
    Got to agree with Boxman on this one – this game could have been 10-2 if the Coyotes could hit the net. I can’t recall the last game I saw where one team had so many grade A scoring chances in the slot. Dubnyk could have been better, but he was hung out to dry last night.

    And the Oilers passed up so many quality shooting chances – it is like they are allergic to goal-mouth scrambles where they bang in a rebound.

    But let’s be honest, the reason why everyone left ten minutes early was to warm up their cars.

    Dubnyk was hung out to dry when he decided to do his best to get out of the way of the puck. Yes the team stopped playing in the third. Hard to keep your compete up when everytime you give up a shot you get scored on. Dubnyk was a fish out of water last night, it deflated the team…even Perron.

  79. godot10 says:

    OilClog:
    Staples suggesting the Oilers need better assistants.. People have been talking about that fact on this blog for a few centuries now. Smith’s D-corps are always lost, what does Bucky do? I’m not sure what Acton’s duties are other then to say “yes”. Why does the goalie that comes in from the outside untouched from our coaching.. Look like the only goalie that knows how to stop the puck.

    If Eakins eventually gets turfed.. Then what? The return of MacT? Would anyone reputable even want the job? Good Gord we’re Ducked!

    Gardiner gets lots of buttery soft even strength minutes, because everyone else is taking harder even strength minutes or penalty-killing minutes.

    And it is his 3rd year. Schultz is still under 80 games, and is playing tougher minutes.

    Ditto Schultz vs. Leddy.

    There is nothing wrong with Justin Schultz. Playing him with Smid would have helped. But the GM dumped him for a ECHL goalie.

  80. Nuckout says:

    It’s a rollercoaster ride.

    Next game will be a win, maybe by a 2-3 goal margin, Gags and Arco will have a great game, and everything will be aces again in Oil country.

    This, right now, is a .500 caliber hockey club at best, with the fans chanting “kill, kill” after losses, and “Viva la MacT” the next.

    We cannot make up our minds. Being an Oilers fan is like being a bi-polar monkey; lots of head scratching and a new emotion every 2 seconds.

  81. Caramel Obvious says:

    Showerhead,

    Yeah, I noticed that too, Ekman-Larson played against Hall all night. However, in order to generalize from this observation that the difference in quality of competition matters a lot (and I agree it matters some but not so much that a 1D is a difference in kind) you have to make two further conclusions.

    1) The degree of difficulty in facing Hall and company is much more difficult than facing guys like Hemsky and Perron. And

    2) Even if you think the difference between the #1 and #2 lines of the Oilers is large, this difference has to be representative of NHL teams in general.

    To these two premises I would say, yes the Hall line is better than the other two lines. However, let’s not exaggerate the differences. First, playing against the other guys isn’t easy they are legitimate scoring threats and, second, the other D still end up playing against Hall and Company a good proportion of the time. There is a reason the range of Qcomp is so small.

    Additionally the difference between the first and second line on the Oilers is larger than for most teams. For Phoenix I would say there is no difference at all.

    In any case follow this experiment through. See how the TOI matches up game after game. My hypothesis is you will find that whomever you define as first pairing (say Petry and Ference) and whomever you define as second pairing will face similar enough competition that giving a special name to one group is misleading.

  82. OilClog says:

    godot10,

    Ummmm I like Schultz.

  83. OilClog says:

    I thought the Hall line was great last night at controlling and cycling the puck. Only adjustment they need to make is making sure Hall or Ebs are the trigger and Nuge is the disher. They have it backwards right now and the puck isn’t going in. Otherwise that line is lights out.

  84. godot10 says:

    OilClog:
    godot10,

    Ummmm I like Schultz.

    Somehow the reply, quoted the wrong post…it was for C.O.’ post.

    Wierd OS X Mavericks effect. It doesn’t seem to clear the quote buffer.

  85. Caramel Obvious says:

    godot10: Gardiner gets lots of buttery soft even strength minutes, because everyone else is taking harder even strength minutes or penalty-killing minutes.

    And it is his 3rd year.Schultz is still under 80 games, and is playing tougher minutes.

    Ditto Schultz vs. Leddy.

    There is nothing wrong with Justin Schultz.Playing him with Smid would have helped.But the GM dumped him for a ECHL goalie.

    Last night Gardiner played 19 minutes at even strength, most on the team. This included:

    5.5 minutes against Pavelski, Havlat, Kennedy
    10 minutes against Marleau, Couture, Wingels
    3 minutes against Thornton, Hertle, Burns

    I love me some butter. That’s not butter.

  86. Showerhead says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Showerhead,

    Yeah, I noticed that too, Ekman-Larson played against Hall all night.However, in order to generalize from this observation that the difference in quality of competition matters a lot (and I agree it matters some but not so much that a 1D is a difference in kind) you have to make two further conclusions.

    1) The degree of difficulty in facing Hall and company is much more difficult than facing guys like Hemsky and Perron.And

    2) Even if you think the difference between the #1 and #2 lines of the Oilers is large, this difference has to be representative of NHL teams in general.

    To these two premises I would say, yes the Hall line is better than the other two lines.However, let’s not exaggerate the differences.First, playing against the other guys isn’t easy they are legitimate scoring threats and, second, the other D still end up playing against Hall and Company a good proportion of the time.There is a reason the range of Qcomp is so small.

    Additionally the difference between the first and second line on the Oilers is larger than for most teams.For Phoenix I would say there is no difference at all.

    In any case follow this experiment through.See how the TOI matches up game after game.My hypothesis is you will find that whomever you define as first pairing (say Petry and Ference) and whomever you define as second pairing will face similar enough competition that giving a special name to one group is misleading.

    I definitely agree with your logic.

    Regarding your conclusion #1, I do think the difference is substantial on EDM. (Opinion)
    Regarding conclusion #2, I don’t think the difference is as pronounced on other teams. (Opinion as well)

    My hope is that a legitimate “top pairing” actually gives the Oilers cause to shift their minutes towards harder line matching. I don’t think they have the talent to justify it yet and, by eye, Eakins seems far more interested in zone starts than line matching.

    I’m not sure if I’ve made this clear but my point in that last paragraph is “Edmonton’s defense doesn’t justify hard-matching #1 and #2 pairing minutes, even if there is a substantial difference between them.” They need better players.

  87. gcw_rocks says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    “At least Acton and Hamilton were 2-way deals. They remain, IMO, curious and unnecessary bets (probably favors — unearned — to new head coach).
    But giving Eager 3 years, 1 way. The Khabi deal, the Belanger deal, the Barker deal, and on and on… MacT has a long way to go to come near living in Tambo’s shade.”

    Ference is MacT’s Khabby deal. The Belanger deal turned out bad, but at the time he was signed he was Boyd Gordon and people generally thought it was a good move to fill a need. The dollars were relatively low as well, so I think Tambo gets a pass on that one. MacT doesn’t have his Eager deal yet, but if that is the difference between them that’s a real real small difference.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    The thing is playing a team like the Sharks no one gets easy minutes.

  89. russ99 says:

    gcw_rocks,

    I don’t buy that.

    Ference is a decent supporting piece on a good team and a solid competitor with his name on the Cup and a good room guy. I’d sign a guy like that any day. Sure term/price/NTC is steep, but nothing’s cheap in the first month or two of FA. Had we not signed him he’d be playing well for someone else, for a near identical contract.

    We don’t have a good team, and with Smid traded away, Ference and Petry are getting all the tough minutes.

  90. godot10 says:

    Caramel Obvious: Last night Gardiner played 19 minutes at even strength, most on the team.This included:

    5.5 minutes against Pavelski, Havlat, Kennedy
    10 minutes against Marleau, Couture, Wingels
    3 minutes against Thornton, Hertle, Burns

    I love me some butter.That’s not butter.

    But Gardiner still is a mistake turnover machine, in his 3rd year, as a 2nd/3rd pairing type.

    And Leddy is a 3rd year and still 3rd pairing.

    And you are condeming Schulz.

    The Oilers are worse without Schultz in the lineup, in record and shot metrics.

  91. stevezie says:

    I can’t work up the resolve to burn a bunch of time and energy crafting a comment, so let me just say I agree with most of what CO is saying. Ghost rosters are a fallacy, “butter-soft” minutes are a myth, and-

    Look, there has to be a lesson here. Well, no, there doesn’t, but randomness is not a satisfying thing to follow so let’s pretend there had to be a lesson- I mean with the team as a whole.

    I think the primary lesson is rebuilding is really hard and Lamoriello is right to say “the word ‘rebuild’ is not in the Devil’s vocabulary.” Avoid if possible.

    The second lesson is up and comers are nice, but be very, very wary deferring the present for the future. Cogliano, Brodziak, and Smid were all flawed players who did not obviously fit on the team because their skills were duplicated/their style didn’t match the coach. It’s quite possible that teleporting them to the team today would displace guys of comparable talent (especially considering the role of the 4th line is overstated in the blogopshere, except by Dellow). However, they would help, if only a little. This team needs anything it can get.

    Maybe, just maybe, we’re about to turn a corner. We have missed the ELC window, but that doesn’t mean it is too late. Maybe the picks we got for those three real NHLers and others we moved are about to pay off. No sense in crying, move forward with optimism and enthusiasm. But the lesson, the lesson is a good hockey team needs present-tense good hockey players.

    What I’m trying to say is Ales Hemsky’s boxcars are disappointing and his skillset does not address this team’s most desperate needs, but that doesn’t mean we should trade him. We should sign him, because he is an NHLer, and we need more of those. Not “could use more of”, need. Depending on his price it might even be worth holding on to N.Schultz. I bird in the hand is certainly worth one in the bush, which is all we’re getting for either guy.

    I hope we learn the lesson of other teams too and don’t try to force a fix to the goalie situation, but that’s a different conversation.

  92. bookje says:

    stevezie:
    I can’t work up the resolve to burn a bunch of time and energy crafting a comment, so let me just say I agree with most of what CO is saying.

    The rest of your comment contradicts this statement.

  93. Caramel Obvious says:

    godot10,

    Ok, so now Gardiner is a “third pairing type.” I think you recognize as soon as you wrote this that these are words that don’t mean anything. Do you mean to say he isn’t very good?

    leadfarmer:
    Caramel Obvious,

    The thing is playing a team like the Sharks no one gets easy minutes.

    Yes, exactly. So if quality of competition isn’t meaningful against San Jose and it isn’t meaningful against the Coyotes, when exactly is it meaningful?

    stevezie,

    I agree with everything. Especially with the idea that rebuilding is hard and should be avoided. I might go further and say rebuilding is harder the more you try and rebuild.

    Tambellini didn’t do any building, only tearing. The building started last spring and it can only be done piece by piece. The lesson is don’t get rid of anything without replacing it (the Smid–Cogliano mistake) and don’t rely on young players improving (they won’t). Rather, make as many good moves even if small that you can, and hope they add up. That’s the best that can be done.

  94. VanOil says:

    Andy P:
    Our needs:
    1) That true #1D.
    2) Another Perron to move around the lineup
    3) Healthy Bryz and BTO
    4) Consistency

    I like this breakdown. I would trade the 2014 1st round pick, Hemsky, Dubnyk, Gagner any of the non-NHL D prospects and most of the NHL D to achieve it for next year. I am sick of cheering for prospects and picks I want NHL players to cheer for.

    1) Ehrhoff + Kulikov or Gardiner who are ahead of the development cure of our prospects.
    2) Matthias, not quite Perron but a big man that hustles to back check + play in the top 9
    3) Healthy Bryz and BTO. Maybe upgrade BTO to Scrivens I take a 1a-1b strategy > a 1 for 8.5M
    4) Consistency means we can not fire the head coach again but Steve Smith can sail on.
    + A vet 3d line Right Winger or Center if Gagner or Hemsky has left. Gordon is the #2 center.

  95. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    gcw_rocks: Ference is MacT’s Khabby deal. The Belanger deal turned out bad, but at the time he was signed he was Boyd Gordon and people generally thought it was a good move to fill a need. The dollars were relatively low as well, so I think Tambo gets a pass on that one. MacT doesn’t have his Eager deal yet, but if that is the difference between them that’s a real real small difference.

    Ference has years to live down to Khabbi’s deal. He’s not there yet. Not by a long shot.

    Belanger was too long, too much money (mc79 wrote about this at the time), but the player (at the time) looked like a real player. Tambo identified a worthy player, overpaid him and for too long.

    You could argue Joensuu is MacT’s Eager. MacT got JJ a shade cheaper and for shorter. We still don’t know what he is, but it is looking real bad.

    This is hardly an exhaustive look at a guy who had years and a guy who’s had months. Already the difference is huge.

    Perron, Belov, Gordon, Brown and the draft table all look pretty good to great.

    Bachman, Bryz, Omark look good.

    Jones, Ference, Grebs, Larsen, JJ, Gadzic, Horak and Brossoit all look uneven, or barely average with lots of caveats.

    SMac, Labarbera, Acton, Hamilton all look really problematic, with LaBarbs having the biggest chance to turn it around.

  96. Andy P says:

    MacT got 3 Goalies and a 4th line Center prospect in this trade.
    The Goalies were Bryz, a goalie Calgary beat them to in the draft, and a Goalie project.

    Is all of that no return? Or is any old stick good enough to beat the MacT dog with?

  97. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Andy P: MacT got 3 Goalies and a 4th line Center prospect in this trade.
    The Goalies were Bryz, a goalie Calgary beat them to in the draft, and a Goalie project.

    Bryz, Brossoit… who’s the 3rd here?

  98. godot10 says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    godot10,

    Ok, so now Gardiner is a “third pairing type.”I think you recognize as soon as you wrote this that these are words that don’t mean anything.Do you mean to say he isn’t very good?

    My point is that Jake Gardiner is in his 3rd year and is no better than Justin Schultz who has played less than 80 games.

    Nick Leddy is also a 3rd year player whose matchups are carefully controlled.

    And you are condemning Justin Schultz as a horrible player.

    Jake Gardiner, who many people here would trade the Oilers top 5 pick next summer for, is not any better than Justin Schultz is right now.

  99. godot10 says:

    Andy P:
    MacT got 3 Goalies and a 4th line Center prospect in this trade.
    The Goalies were Bryz, a goalie Calgary beat them to in the draft, and a Goalie project.

    Is all of that no return? Or is any old stick good enough to beat the MacT dog with?

    It is a myth that the Oilers needed Smid’s cap room to sign Bryzgalov.

    Chet Pickard is an AHLcontract, totally unrelated.

  100. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: It is a myth that the Oilers needed Smid’s cap room to sign Bryzgalov.

    Chet Pickard is an AHLcontract, totally unrelated.

    Was Pickard the 3rd?

    Yea, that’s not related at all.

    Neither is the Bryz deal (for a variety of reasons, not just the cap room you mention, but namely he wasn’t at all involved in the trade).

  101. fifthcartel says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 4s

    #Oilers recall Corey Potter, Martin Marincin and Anton Lander from @OKCBarons, assign Will Acton and Denis Grebeshkov to OKC.

    :O :O :O

    Excited to hopefully see Marincin get a chance. Does this mean 1 LD and 1RD get scratched? and a center?

  102. denny33 says:

    Bob Arctor,

    Did you read Tyler’s article or just skim? He was referring to a post from 2011. Seems like his opinion might have changed…
    *********************************************************

    Read it all….did you read LT ‘s article?

    Sam Gagner has been the *same* player for 6 years – including 2011.

    Glad to hear his opinion on Sam has changed- but Sam’s defensive play has not changed since he has been here.

    Same Sam….6 years.

  103. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    fifthcartel:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 4s

    #Oilers recall Corey Potter, Martin Marincin and Anton Lander from @OKCBarons, assign Will Acton and Denis Grebeshkov to OKC.

    :O :O :O

    Excited to hopefully see Marincin get a chance. Does this mean 1 LD and 1RD get scratched? and a center?

    WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW

  104. stevezie says:

    bookje,

    Maybe I’m misreading him, but I his larger point is, “if you have two guy who play the same role, this is not a bad thing, because the difference in roles is overstated.” So while Cogliano might not have had a spot on the ghost roster, he was a better player than the guy who replaced him. Same with Smid. Our glut of young defenceman mitigates that mistake a little, but not much.

    I think that fits my idea that Hemsky should be signed because he is good (though clearly no longer as good as I remember him).

    Oh wait, you meant the time and energy thing.

    You win this round, bookyee. Write it down, won’t happen twice.

  105. denny33 says:

    Andy P,

    How exactly does Bryz ( UFA ) figure into the return for Smid?

  106. Pablo Aimar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: At least Acton and Hamilton were 2-way deals. They remain, IMO, curious and unnecessary bets (probably favors — unearned — to new head coach).

    But giving Eager 3 years, 1 way. The Khabi deal, the Belanger deal, the Barker deal, and on and on… MacT has a long way to go to come near living in Tambo’s shade.

    MacTavish tried very hard to give David Clarkson 6 million a year; he went to Toronto instead. Far, far dumber than anything Tambo did.

  107. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Marincin played a hell of a game last night. I’m glad the team noticed.

    But I want to note the lack of consistency in call ups so far: Davidson, Fedun, Klefbom, Grebs, Larsen, Potter and now Marincin.

    Some of those were called up twice IIRC, but it sure looks like they are firing aimlessly a bit here. Still, I’m ecstatic to see Marincin play with the big club (if in fact he plays, he may just fill the 7th man in case of emergency role).

    If Arco is the one that gets chewed out publicly, but Acton is the one sent out, I’m OK with that.

    I really hope Lander can stick, or at least bring enough of his AHL play with him in limited minutes to be worth something to the team.

  108. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pablo Aimar: MacTavish tried very hard to give David Clarkson 6 million a year; he went to Toronto instead. Far, far dumber than anything Tambo did.

    Well, that’s frankly absurd.

    Clarkson was always going to be an overpay. That’s what UFAs are. The trade off is that they only cost money. We had that.

    Clarkson instantly makes this a better team, regardless of his contract.

    I say that as someone who pulled his hair out when I heard MacT was chasing Clarkson in the summer and I wanted the better and much cheaper MacArthur.

    You’re over-working the present and letting the past off the hook here.

  109. godot10 says:

    Wasn’t Cogliano turned into Marco Roy? The value of the asset was preserved. At some point you have to fish or cut bait on players.

    The Cogliano trade was a good trade. The Oilers had better players who could contribute what Coglaino could cbest ontribute. Either the better player or Cogliano would have had to be utilized sub-optimally, which would have hurt the team, and the value of the asset.

    At that point, the better option, is to preserve the value of the asset.

    It is what St. Louis did with Perron.

    Turn a surplus of one type of skill into a long dated option (a draft pick or a cheaper player one will have control of for longer) and use the money to pay for a something you need more now.

  110. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That said, I’d like Jones or whoever, the next time they interview MacT to review his summer with him and ask him to rethink his targets, his gauge of the market, etc.

    I’d like to know if he’d still chase Clarkson. I suspect he would.

  111. Pablo Aimar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Well, that’s frankly absurd.

    Clarkson was always going to be an overpay. That’s what UFAs are. The trade off is that they only cost money. We had that.

    Clarkson instantly makes this a better team, regardless of his contract.

    if UFA’s are an overpay “and only cost money” then why slate Tambo for Khabi? Or Eager? Or any of them? Clarkson sucks and his contract is one of the worst in the league. And “regardless of his contract” is ludicrous: there is a salary cap.

  112. Kitchener says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    But I want to note the lack of consistency in call ups so far: Davidson, Fedun, Klefbom, Grebs, Larsen, Potter and now Marincin.

    Unless the plan is to give a taste of NHL experience to a bunch of guys, then evaluate on what happens afterward. I’m not saying this is a good strategy, but it would give coherence to the otherwise weird list of callups.

    I’m guessing Grebs is gone to the AHL for a long time.

  113. Alsker says:

    How long til Grebs gets a ticket back to mother russia, a hand shake, a thank you card(well stuffed) and we gain a roster spot and a little cap space? Doubt he came back to NA to ride the bus in the AHL. If Kovy could do it why not Grebs.

  114. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    It seems to me that they are rotating the callups of OKC defensemen so that the coaching staff, i.e. Eakins, can get a first hand look at them. Marincin isn’t here for good, he’s here to fill in for a couple of games and to gauge where he is against NHL competition.

    This strikes me as good sense. It gives both the team and the player a better sense of where they are and where they are going.

  115. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pablo Aimar: if UFA’s are an overpay “and only cost money” then why slate Tambo for Khabi? Or Eager? Or any of them?

    Because there is more to evaluating a player/contract than their contract status. That should be a no brainer.

    Here’s the deal on UFAs: Khabbi, Eager, Belanger all get the caveat that they dealt with Tambo during the one period when they could fully exploit the market.

    When evaluating a contract you have to take that into account. UFAs have banked years of being under labyrinthine rules about how and when they can bargain for the term and money of their employment.

    That caveat and the lack of assets moving make UFAs a separate beast.

    They don’t mean that a particular deal isn’t still a bargain or a huge overpay, or a player isn’t full value or garbage.

    Pointing this out is simply trying to reflect a complicated set of market conditions.

    Now, all 4 of those players are sub-optimal bets for myriad reasons. But, of them I’d happily take the Clarkson bet every time.

    Pablo Aimar: Clarkson sucks and his contract is one of the worst in the league.

    Clarkson doesn’t suck. That’s ridiculous. He’s a fine complimentary player that cashed in on a weak market, a decent season and his UFA status.

    There is no team that isn’t better with him than without him.

    His contract is full-value plus a very hefty overpay. I haven’t said otherwise.

    Pablo Aimar: And “regardless of his contract” is ludicrous: there is a salary cap.

    No it isn’t. There are many good players “regardless of contract” (Lou, Clarkson, Richards, Heatley, Horcoff, etc.).

    Pointing that out is simply stating the obvious. It is extraordinarily rare for a player’s value (however you want to determine it) to match their contract (most are under or over pays).

    Finally, you’ve ignored the context. When MacT offered Clarkson that bucketload he had the room, the cap wasn’t an issue.

  116. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Kitchener: I’m guessing Grebs is gone to the AHL for a long time.

    If that is indeed the case, expect an unconditional buyout shortly.

    He’s not here to play in the AHL forever, for a short term with a chance to play in the NHL, yes. But if they are just going to park him in the AHL… you’re just wasting development minutes better spent on the prospects and a roster spot on the 50 man for nothing.

  117. misfit says:

    I actually don’t think Clarkson’s been that bad.

    Yeah, he’s overpaid, but he’s still a useful player. He’s also the one thing everyone in Oiler-land has been begging for for years. A big forward who’s tough to play against and can play in the top 6. The bounces haven’t been kind to him, but he’s moving the puck in the right direction despite being a “top left” guy on the Vollman.

    Khabibulin and Eager were bigger mistakes because they simply weren’t good hockey players. That’s not the case with Clarkson. If you’re going to overpay a free agent, it’s far better to do it with a player who can actually play the game.

    With that said, I’d rather have Perron, and signing Clarkson probably would’ve prevented that move from happening.

  118. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    St Louis and Edmonton are in very different circumstances. I’m willing to say it was a good trade that did not serve the team’s needs. I think it is fair to say that the process is taking longer than it was designed to do. I don’t wish we had Cogliano, I wish we had more good players. My major beef isn’t with the trade, it’s with the general philosophy of, “We have two guys? Well there’s only one role, so trade him for picks!”

  119. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    misfit: With that said, I’d rather have Perron, and signing Clarkson probably would’ve prevented that move from happening.

    Not so. If Clarkson signs, it is probable that MacT doesn’t sign Jones, Hamilton and Grebs.

    He also could have taken less than full value on Hemsky and/or dealt N. Schultz.

    Lots of options cap wise.

  120. RMGS says:

    BrazilianOil:
    RMGS,

    Wow! Almost, morro de sao paulo, just a few miles north. I buyed a piece of land in 2006 ! If you are interested i’m selling 50m front beach.

    Wow, indeed. Please send me an email with details: rmgs77 at gmail dot com.

  121. Pablo Aimar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: When MacT offered Clarkson that bucketload he had the room, the cap wasn’t an issue.

    The cap is always an issue. Asserting otherwise is outlandish. The Clarkson signing was universally derided as an awful move and with good reason.

  122. Bruce McCurdy says:

    bendelson: Grant and Foster may be cool cats but Chad is just an asshole.

    “I’ll bet you anything that ten times out of ten, Nicky, Vinny and Tony will beat the shit out of Todd, Kyle, and Tucker.” — George Carlin

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