A FALSE SPRING

Despite the miles and miles of losses, there are things to be gained from another lost year. The key in Edmonton the rest of this season is to find some answers to the many questions facing this organization.

PROJECTED 2014-15 LINEUP (11 of 23)

  • G:
  • D: Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, Andrew Ference, Justin Schultz
  • C: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Boyd Gordon
  • L: Taylor Hall, David Perron, Luke Gazdic
  • R; Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov

That’s my list, your mileage may vary.  I think it’s reasonable to assume at least half of this team doesn’t come back, that the goalies will be new, that we’ll see at least two significant additions to the blueline, and 6 or 7 current forwards are certain to be back.

Craig MacTavish is going to blow this thing up, or at least as much as he can in the modern era.

  • MacTavish: “We’ll make as many changes as we can at the deadline”
  • MacTavish: “Failing a miraculous 15-game stretch, our UFA players will be of interest to a number of teams.”

The Oilers UFAs are Ales Hemsky (who got hurt last night), Ryan Smyth, Ryan Jones, Nick Schultz, Anton Belov, Corey Potter, Devan Dubnyk, Ilya Bryzgalov, Denis Grebeshkov, Ben Eager and Steve MacIntyre. There is also the Gagner item, I’m not sure how that’ll go (he has 5 points in 5 games, but looked truly inept in important areas last night) and looking at that list I wonder how many of these men are of interest to contenders.

Hemsky? Sure, if healthy. Nick Schultz? Veteran D always have value at the deadline but Mr. Schultz is really testing that theory with his play. I’d be more interested in trading for Belov to be honest. Less experience, better player.

baseball2

THE BAD NEWS

At some point over the next few weeks, it is possible the Buffalo Sabres could pass the Oilers, leaving Edmonton in 30th place full stop. Buffalo is 4 points behind with 4 games in hand, so if they win tonight against Toronto the Sabres will basically have the hammer in the race between the two teams for 29th overall.

The Oilers are on pace for 25 wins, which would match the lowest win total in franchise history (tying 2010-11 and 1993-94). These are some of the darkest days in franchise history, and that promise of a beautiful sunrise and winning has become a bad joke. The pressure on MacTavish is immense, but he can’t help this year’s Oilers—they are dead in the water.

THE GOOD NEWS

hayek14

MARTIN MARINCIN CARD

marincin player card

These are the kinds of things Edmonton can gain from another lost season. It would be folly to expect Marincin to play this well for the next 1,000 games, and he isn’t playing 25 minutes a night at evens, but there appears to be an effective player here and he should improve as he spends more time in the NHL. Marincin is relying on Petry, but it’s also true that Petry played with others this season and looked less effective. He’ll play 40+ games in the NHL this season, I think we can project him onto next season’s roster at this time.

JEFF PETRY CARD

petry card

Let’s not talk about ’2nd pairing’ or ’3rd pairing’, let’s instead talk about these two players paired next season on the Edmonton Oilers. Can they play the game? The Corsi for % at 5×5 suggests so, and Petry has 23 points in his 95 games—that’s Staios/Smith category, maybe a hair better (it’s tough to say, but Petry can move the puck well, better imo than Smith or Staios—certainly more under control). Petry plays a lot, and his Corsi for% is improved over last season. One of the things about this team we need to pay close attention to, because it isn’t obvious by eye, is the progress made by the younger set. Petry is such a player, despite the slings and arrows he faces online.

JUSTIN SCHULTZ PLAYER CARD

jschultz player card

It’s funny, these two seasons look very similar, and yet we’re all talking about Schultz sophomore slump. He has so much natural talent, one hopes the Oilers can find a partner (or a level of competition) where that Corsi for % rides up toward 50%. He’s also shooting way less, that was part of his appeal as a rookie.

ANDREW FERENCE PLAYER CARD

FERENCE playing cardNo matter what you want to say about him, Ference was above 50% during the regular season one year ago. If the Oilers decided to trade him tomorrow, he’d have value. The problems this team has endured in the last two seasons were beyond this veteran’s ability to handle, but if they can fix it he should be able to contribute to a better hand.

 ANTON BELOV PLAYER CARD

belov card

I included him because there’s something about him. Belov is slow, not Cory Cross slow but he’s probably deal-breaker slow, and may never play in the NHL again. I’d sign him, and that’s the truth. To hell with everyone, his CorsiRel is above the group out of the box.

 SOME NOTES

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

ISAAC

 

Hold on to your pets, this wind is crazy! At 10, if the lights are still on, I’ll hit the air on TSN 1260 for the Lowdown.  Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey. We’ll try to find what’s good in this season.
  • Mike Ringrose, Associate Coach for the Spruce Grove Saints and Instructor at Vimy Hockey. Saints are #1 in CJHL rankings, we’ll talk about a strong season and playoff hopes.
  • Steve Dangle, Leafs Nation. A huge win for Toronto has the club back in the playoffs, and they could firm things up with a win tonight against Buffalo.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. The Top Prospects game goes tonight in Calgary, we’ll preview things with Mr. Flaming.

10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. It’ll be fun! Honest!

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170 Responses to "A FALSE SPRING"

  1. Vince says:

    as much as I’d love two Jeff Petry’s…….

  2. Lowetide says:

    Vince:
    as much as I’d love two Jeff Petry’s…….

    We need three!

  3. icecastles says:

    Either you have gone in for VERY safe bets, you are hoping for a flux capacitor-induced do-over, or you meant “Projected 2014/15 Lineup”, not “2013/14″.

  4. Ben says:

    You know what hockey people always say: “Build your team from the left wing back toward your net. Very gradually.”

  5. TheGreatMutato says:

    Vince,

    Hi, I’m Larry. This is my brother Jeff, and this is my other brother Jeff.

  6. cdean says:

    I like your keeper list LT, the outside chances are Hemsky, Smyth and Belov. There might also be some internal competition for 4C; Lander or Horak. Would like to see Fedun get a long look after Olympics. The only way I see Gagner staying if it is on the right side but that would mean someone else leaving; Eberle, Yakupov, Hemsky.

  7. JohnnyRocket says:

    Wow. Remember when there were parties across the city to watch us draft Taylor Hall. Has that feeling ever left town.

  8. JohnnyRocket says:

    Ben:
    You know what hockey people always say: “Build your team from the left wing back toward your net. Very gradually.”

    Oh my goodness. That’s great.

  9. Hammers says:

    I said at the beginning of the year Marincin had a great year in the AHL . Now I wonder if he helped J.Schultz more than any of us realized .Obviously Nurse & Klefbom have potential but until they start playing at the NHL level they are both unknown factors .I would like to see them give Pitlick a good run after the Olympics plus Lander . I noticed you don’t count on Arcobello LT but he could be as good a 4th line center as we can get so I would add him to your list . Real problem is always the same . G ; “D” & Center .

  10. RT26 says:

    My fears are these:

    > Given how many false starts we’ve had with this re-build, the onerous travel schedule and passionate fan base (which freaks some players out) – can we attract useful FA’s without over-paying?
    > If we over-value our pending FA’s and Gagner and don’t trade them as a result, do we just keep the ineffeective status quo for too long waiting for the right deal? Do we need to consider jettisoning some of these players to clear the decks for new players who better fit the new model?
    > I love how Marincin is playing, but should we delay his being a full time NHL player, or give him more competition rather than risk bringing him up too early? I know the D cupboard is bare, but he could be really useful if we’re patient.

    I have faith in MacT, but he has some pretty high hurdles he must jump over to fix things….

  11. commonfan14 says:

    JohnnyRocket,

    The McDavid parties will be awesome.

  12. goldenchild says:

    Im now torn on the Hemsky thing. I dont think they will find a player as good as Ales to play his role for 3-4 years, so the choice between signing him to a 3 year 11-12M deal with no movement vs trading him for 21 year old Steven Rice and Louie Debrusks isnt close. If they want to be a good team next year sign him. The coach loves him, he has accepted and excelled in his new role, that line with Gordon and Perron has looked like an honest to goodness NHL line that can help you in a thousand ways.

    On the other hand as an Ales Hemsky fan I think it would be great for him to get out of here, not have to deal with the matheson hack jobs and the drunken bros calling him a soft euro. Playing with a Malkin or Crosby or some other playoff team in games that matter. We have seen this last week he can still impact games at a high level, hes just such a fantastic player and has often played his best in the biggest games. If he was born in Regina every Oiler writer would have volumes of stories about how clutch a player he is but alas he comes from a town far away thats hard to pronounce so those stories could never be. Wherever he ends up I will be cheering like hell for that team this spring

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I included him because there’s something about him. Belov is slow, not Cory Cross slow but he’s probably deal-breaker slow, and may never play in the NHL again. I’d sign him, and that’s the truth. To hell with everyone, his CorsiRel is above the group out of the box.

    I’m just going to keep pimping this Belov WOWY card because I think it is useful:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1802&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

    Yesterday Willis looked at Belov without Petry (45.5% vs 56.7%) and came to the conclusion Belov was hobbling the ship.

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/1/14/did-craig-mactavish-move-ladislav-smid-to-calgary-just-in-time

    But he didn’t bother to look at Petry without Belov (45.2 vs 56.7).

    77 and 2 together: 56.7
    77 without 2: 45.5
    2 without 77: 45.2

    That is, both play better together and worse apart. So, it is simply not the case that one is zooming the other.

    Rather, it looks a lot more like both flourish when put together and the “without you” drag comes from other pairings, i.e., when either 2 or 77 are struggling to recover for 15, for example.

    In fact, when you look at Belov’s most common partner at 5×5, it’s J. Schultz, not Petry.

    19 and 77 together: 49.7
    77 without 19: 47.3
    19 without 77: 41.5

    Now… there’s a player card where you can pull the “who’s zooming who” out and it clearly tips in 77′s favor.

    Looking through these numbers it sure looks like Belov is a player, an NHL player.

    I know he is slow and he’s not overly physical and he seems to be struggling somewhat with the number of games and adjusting to the NHL.

    But, I think it would be a big mistake to give him up. He came to play for the Oilers. He gave up lots of money and comfort to come here. He gave up playing for a contender. And, he’s played well.

    Sign him.

  14. Ducey says:

    Add Arco to the keeper list? If nothing else he would be a good 13th forward.

    Re: Jultz: The guy is averaging 23 minutes a night and has just 89 games in the NHL. Its a miracle he is doing as well as he is.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    Add Arco to the keeper list?If nothing else he would be a good 13th forward.

    Re: Jultz:The guy is averaging 23 minutes a night and has just 89 games in the NHL.Its a miracle he is doing as well as he is.

    I’m a bad, bad man, but am not convinced of Arcobello as a 2line option and am uncertain the Oilers see him as a 4th line player. Torn on it. Like the player, not the fit.

  16. Kosmo Kraemer says:

    Let’s just concentrate on the main concern here which is defense. I think Marincin should stick but that negates bringing anybody up from the farm, just can’t have too many rookie d-men on the roster. Nultz is gone, Ference is back and Jultz and Petry need to get resigned. But, with the exception of Ference, only Petry will return next year with anything close to that magic 200 game mark that a defenseman should have.

    MacT: get two reliable D to fill the first pairing spots, push everybody down a pairing and see what happens, it has to improve the save percentage and goals against of the goalies, even the current two.

    A bigger number two centre would be nice, with some talent of course and see what happens.

    I was one of those fools who thought the Oilers would challenge for the playoffs this year, I’m not even going to predict that for next year. Pacific division is tough.

  17. Lowetide says:

    I’ll look this up when I get home, but has a team ever introduced two rookies in a season in substantial roles and been successful?

  18. icecastles says:

    Hammers: Real problem is always the same . G ; “D” & Center .

    Agreed. We still need another G.D. centre.

  19. Kosmo Kraemer says:

    Can’t be too often LT

  20. TheGreatMutato says:

    Here ya go LT. I fixed your main article photo to better reflect 2013-2014:

    http://i.imgur.com/jXtgUMI.jpg

  21. WeirsBeard says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ll look this up when I get home, but has a team ever introduced two rookies in a season in substantial roles and been successful?

    The WHL clubs the first season in the NHL? Oh wait, the Oilers best player wasn’t a rookie.

    Seriously though, to expect substantial contributions from rookies, I think they need to be Makarov rookies.

  22. KSC10032 says:

    Another fine post.

    BTW — as another old-timer, I can tell the folks out there that the title of this post refers to one of the greatest sports (baseball) memoirs ever written — Pat Jordan’s “A False Spring”.

    Jordan was a genuine pitching “phenom” in the late ’50′s, early ’60′s who never made it out of the minors, despite a tremendous arm. The book reflects upon “what happened”, as he basically crashed and burned right out of the gate. Afterwards, he became a fine writer, on baseball and other subjects.

    This book is well worth digging up for all baseball fans.

  23. Pouzar says:

    Everyone on this team is untouchable.

    I am all in for 1 more tank job.

    GO McDAVID GO!!!

  24. KSC10032 says:

    Lowetide,

    Off the top of my head, the 1980/81 Oilers that swept the Habs had numerous famous rookies, but that may not be the level of “success” you are referencing.

    Certainly no team from the last 15 years or so leaps to mind.

  25. HiddenDarts says:

    Lowetide: I’m a bad, bad man, but am not convinced of Arcobello as a 2line option and am uncertain the Oilers see him as a 4th line player. Torn on it. Like the player, not the fit.

    Dang it LT! I rarely disagree with you, but this is blasphemy! I may call for your UBC* Card to be revoked!

    *Underdog Booster Club

  26. denny33 says:

    Remember when people were comparing this year’s edition of the Oilers to last year’s edition of the Oilers?

    Seems kind of funny now….like my spelling and my grammar.

  27. OilClog says:

    I’d keep Belov unless a contender comes calling with a pretty little package for him. He’s a player.

    How do you not keep Arco? He’s the little Yorkie that refuses to back down and be told no. We need 6 more Arcos and we’d be competitive!

    Wherever MacT sends Hemmer, I’ll be cheering as loud as humanly possible.

  28. HiddenDarts says:

    TheGreatMutato:
    Here ya go LT.I fixed your main article photo to better reflect 2013-2014:

    http://i.imgur.com/jXtgUMI.jpg

    Oh, that IS a beauty!

  29. rich says:

    Lowetide: I’m a bad, bad man, but am not convinced of Arcobello as a 2line option and am uncertain the Oilers see him as a 4th line player. Torn on it. Like the player, not the fit.

    I don’t have a problem bringing Arco back for a 4th line role and then seeing what he can add to the group. He had several good games last week skating 4th line w/Gazdic and Jones and they moved the puck in the right direction – even scored. He’s more defensively responsible than Gagner has ever been.

    Not sure that he should be a 2nd line center though because he may never bring enough offense, but he’s not going to hurt you as badly in your own zone and he’ll hit people.

  30. Eastern Oil says:

    Lowetide,

    LT, I like Arco a lot too and am optimistic, but I remain unconvinced as well. Part of it is small sample sizes and he could go either way. With Hemsky, Smyth, Jones being UFA’s this year, would you keep Arco around as a 3rd or 4th line guy that can move up? Maybe a cheap 1 or 2 year bridge contract?

    Personally, and this depends on off season moves, I would keep a roster spot for him. Deadweight like Eager and Smac are off why not take the chance? And I am not suggesting you recommended to jettison Arco, just my personal opinion.

  31. sumaclab says:

    The question I have is minus the FA contracts how many contracts will the Oilers have moving forward into the 2014-15 season. And of the RFA’s how many will be qualified? I think of players like Hamilton and Pitlick.

    My thought is that the Oilers will have a number of contracts open that will likely be filled by recent draft picks. They have been hamstrung recently by a plethora of bad contracts. The other wild card is that they still have a buy out remaining which essentially gives MacT the ability to absorb a bad contract in any trade.

    I would like to see MacT sign 2 NHL veteran dmen. There is an abundance of FA dmen who can fill 4-7 roles. If I have my druthers I also would see Ryan Smyth resigned. As a fourth line winger I see him as a bridge for the younger players to management.

    As far as the pick goes if its a number 1-2 pick( 4-7 more likely) I would take Eckblad without reservation. If? The Oilers move Gagner.Which I don’t think they will till draft day. Then I would take Sam Rheinhart.I know that physically Draistle is the more sexy pick and would fill out the Oilers roster with more size. But what I think is that Rheinhats skill and puck sense will blend more easily with either Yakupov or Eberle. Whoever they pick,and they will pick. It must be done with the long term health of this organization in mind.

  32. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    “I think it’s reasonable to assume at least half of this team doesn’t come back”

    Well, I have to admit you people are far more optomistic then I.

    This will be the third round of purging at least a quarter of the roster.

    I got a wicked bad feeling that both Nurse, Ekblad or Klefbom will be on the roster come next season.

    I also keep Smyth depending on what is offered for him.

  33. Rondo says:

    Oh the next rebuild we will do right.

    Here is a good basic axiom that if you take a quart of ice-cream and a quart of dog feces and mix ’em together the result will taste more like the latter than the former. That is the problem with the Oilers

  34. D says:

    Not an apologist for the Oilers’ (mis)management team here, but I would prefer to have LT’s 2014-2015 projected lineup as a starting point instead of the 2006-2007 core group.

  35. Mo Deet says:

    Acro = useful, versetile, cheap.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    When J.Shultz is with Belov, its not in first pairing minutes/opposition.

    When he’s away from Belov, and specifically with Ference, it is first pairing opposition.

    That’s gong to affect the corgis.

    Also,

    If you haven’t read Tyler’s piece on Keith’s true WOWY, you should: http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6566

    Tyler also takes on MacT for saying that Hall was getting tougher minutes this year: http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6561

  37. Mo Deet says:

    (Arco, rather. obv.)

  38. Woodguy says:

    OilClog:
    I’d keep Belov unless a contender comes calling with a pretty little package for him. He’s a player.

    How do you not keep Arco? He’s the little Yorkie that refuses to back down and be told no. We need 6 more Arcos and we’d be competitive!

    Wherever MacT sends Hemmer, I’ll be cheering as loud as humanly possible.

    He’s not a Yorkie.

    He’s a Corgi.

  39. hunter1909 says:

    This season = lost season like all of the others.

    Next season – I’ll dismiss beforehand. Save myself the trouble.

    Season after that – see above.

    My name is hunter1909, and I’m an oilers fan…

  40. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ll look this up when I get home, but has a team ever introduced two rookies in a season in substantial roles and been successful?

    Your Edmonton Oilers, proudly developing rookies at the NHL level by the bushel for the past 10 years.

  41. teddyturnbuckle says:

    The scary thing about this team is that we may only have 10 or 11 decent NHL players like LT stated that are worth keeping. Can MacT fill 12 roster spots? I don’t think anyone can. Getting another top pick won’t matter when you need another 10 good players

  42. oilersfan says:

    did mctavish make those quotes about “we will make as many trades as we can at the deadline” and “our ufa;s will have value”? I dont’ remember hearing or reading that in the staples article…

    we had two jeff petry’s, we traded the other one for nick Schultz and didn’t resign him for 25 cents on the dollar when we had the chance.

    so John Shannon and Mark Spector are saying hemsky will only bring back a third round pick, but the guy from the fourth period on the Gregor show and Rishaug, who is friends with Bob Mackenzie and Darren dreger have both said they thought he could land a late first round pick or a b prospect. The fourth period guy thought Hemsky would get a first round pick and a prospect.

    varying opinions, for sure. I think if he plays well at the Olympics with jagr maybe NJ would be interested, or if he plays well with Krejci maybe Boston would be. maybe a second rounder that becomes a first rouder if they win two rounds of the playoffs or re-sign him, something like that.

    interesting that during the lockout hemsky played with Krejci and hemsky had more PPg than Krejci did.

  43. oilersfan says:

    I think we all have to accept the fact that it is highly unlikely that hemsky wants to resign here. I am sure nothing against the city, but the guy will be 31 next year and his window is shrinking. if I am him I have made my money and I go to Pittsburgh for 3×3.5 or something like that.

  44. Lowetide says:

    oilersfan:
    did mctavish make those quotes about “we will make as many trades as we can at the deadline” and “our ufa;s will have value”? I dont’ remember hearing or reading that in the staples article…

    we had two jeff petry’s, we traded the other one for nick Schultz and didn’t resign him for 25 cents on the dollar when we had the chance.

    so John Shannon and Mark Spector are saying hemsky will only bring back a third round pick, but the guy from the fourth period on the Gregor show and Rishaug, who is friends with Bob Mackenzie and Darren dreger have both said they thought he could land a late first round pick or a b prospect. The fourth period guy thought Hemsky would get a first round pick and a prospect.

    varying opinions, for sure. I think if he plays well at the Olympics with jagr maybe NJ would be interested, or if he plays well with Krejci maybe Boston would be. maybe a second rounder that becomes a first rouder if they win two rounds of the playoffs or re-sign him, something like that.

    interesting that during the lockout hemsky played with Krejci and hemsky had more PPg than Krejci did.

    HNIC radio, couldnt find the link

  45. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: I’m a bad, bad man, but am not convinced of Arcobello as a 2line option and am uncertain the Oilers see him as a 4th line player. Torn on it. Like the player, not the fit.

    I’m shocked – this guy is marty reasoner. Sign him for 2.5X4 and stabilize that fourth line for years. YEARS.

  46. commonfan14 says:

    Some people were asking about the Pronman list yesterday that’s behind a paywall. Here’s the top-10 if anyone is still interested (it only includes guys who aren’t currently on NHL rosters):

    1. Jonathan Drouin, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
    DOB: 3/27/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (Halifax, OHL): 23 GP, 17 G, 33 A, 50 P
    Preseason ranking: 1

    The No. 3 pick from the 2013 draft is clearly the best player currently not in the NHL. Drouin is a player with an off-the-chart skill level. His puck skills and offensive instincts are both elite, he’s a pretty good skater and has notably improved his defensive zone play over the past 12 months. Drouin’s only issue before making the NHL jump is getting a lot stronger, as he can be out-muscled in battles.

    ——————————————————————————–

    2. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Washington Capitals
    DOB: 5/19/92 | Age: 21
    2013-14 stats (Traktor, KHL): 23 GP, 7 G, 7 A, 14 P
    Preseason ranking: 4

    Kuznetsov’s play has tailed off a bit this season, perhaps due to injuries and what one Russian scout feels was an attempt to rush him back too quickly. Kuznetsov is still a very good prospect with dynamic talent, but there’s a little more risk on his projection than this time last year.

    ——————————————————————————–

    3. Filip Forsberg, RW, Nashville Predators
    DOB: 8/13/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Nashville, NHL): 12 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 P
    Preseason ranking: 13

    Forsberg is a player who projects as a top-tier power forward, though he hasn’t displayed that during his stints at the NHL level yet. He’s a very skilled player who makes plays with his hands and body, and he has the work ethic to match his offensive talents. Forsberg isn’t a blazer, and can try to do too much at times, but he has the ability to dominate a game as well. In eight AHL contests this season, he has eight points.

    ——————————————————————————–

    4. Teuvo Teravainen, C, Chicago Blackhawks
    DOB: 9/11/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Jokerit, SM Liiga): 29 GP, 3 G, 14 A, 17 P
    Preseason ranking: 21

    Though he has been just fine in league play over in Finland, Teravainen has stood out in a big way against players at his age level. Teravainen’s a fantastic playmaker with unique offensive hockey sense and the skill to make all sorts of plays. He’s a good skater as well, and has gotten better in his own end. He hasn’t blown down the doors vs. senior-level competition, but his skill set leads to a projection that is very promising.

    ——————————————————————————–

    5. Brandon Gormley, D, Phoenix Coyotes
    DOB: 2/18/92 | Age: 21
    2013-14 stats (Portland, AHL): 34 GP, 1 G, 16 A, 17 P
    Preseason ranking: 19

    Gormley has been on top prospect lists for several years now, and now it’s just a matter of patience before a spot opens up in Phoenix, as he’s ready to make the jump. Gormley is a really smart two-way defenseman who always seems to be in the right spot and make the right play. He’s gotten quicker and stronger as well since his days in the QMJHL.

    ——————————————————————————–

    6. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Buffalo Sabres
    DOB: 10/27/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Buffalo, AHL): 19 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 2 P
    Preseason ranking: 14

    Though he hasn’t been all that impressive in the NHL, Ristolainen has a 1994 birth date, meaning we shouldn’t expect too much at this age. In the AHL (where he’s posted four points in five games this season) and at the WJC (where he had three goals, including the tournament-winner against Sweden), Ristolainen has shown the promise of what he can be, which is a tough-minutes, top-pairing defender for the Sabres.

    ——————————————————————————–

    7. Griffin Reinhart, D, New York Islanders
    DOB: 1/24/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Edmonton, WHL): 20 GP, 2 G, 9 A, 11 P
    Preseason ranking: 34

    Reinhart nearly made the Islanders’ NHL roster out of training camp this season, and likely will be a regular for them at this time next season. Reinhart is a big defender who skates well for his size, and couples that with high-end hockey sense. He doesn’t blow you away with a great package of skills, but he can move the puck and make a lot of defensive stops.

    ——————————————————————————–

    8. Darnell Nurse, D, Edmonton Oilers
    DOB: 2/4/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (Sault Ste. Marie, OHL): 43 GP, 10 G, 28 A, 38 P
    Preseason ranking: 20

    He wasn’t chosen to be on Canada’s team for the WJC, but I don’t think that is indicative of where Nurse is as an NHL prospect — he brings a ton to the table. He’s big, mean, a great skater and is pretty effective in both ends of the rink. His decisions aren’t always perfect and his shot could be a little better, but he’s a top-end prospect.

    ——————————————————————————–

    9. Bo Horvat, C, Vancouver Canucks
    DOB: 4/5/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (London, OHL): 31 GP, 17 G, 30 A, 47 P
    Preseason ranking: 28

    Horvat didn’t perform all that well at the WJC, but based on what he’s shown in the OHL over the past year, it’s hard to not be very optimistic about his future. Horvat projects to be a significant two-way NHL center. He isn’t a dynamic skill player, but he can make a lot of plays with the puck, on top of a good power game. His skating shows good flashes, but it’s roughly average.

    ——————————————————————————–

    10. Nikita Zadorov, D, Buffalo Sabres
    DOB: 4/16/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (London, OHL): 11 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 7 P
    Preseason ranking: 32

    At 6-foot-5, Zadorov is a prototypical tower of terror along the blue line. He’s huge, strong, very mobile and loves to throw his body around. Zadorov has become a more confident offensive player, adding a new element to his game with his passing and shooting skills. He can still make an occasional bad read in all zones, but he’s getting better in that area.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Jordan: I’m shocked – this guy is marty reasoner.Sign him for 2.5X4 and stabilize that fourth line for years.YEARS.

    do the Oilers agree? I’m delighted with Arco in that role.

  48. oilersfan says:

    that ryan garbutt looks like he would be a very good signing for the oilers in the offseason. him and David Moss would make a nice third line with Boyd Gordon.

  49. sliderule says:

    The Dallas feed had Moog on between periods.

    He commented that Bryzgalov in previous seasons was a stay in blue goalie.In this game he was all over the place.He thought he might e trying too hard.

    I wonder if it’s the goalie coach giving him instruction.

  50. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: do the Oilers agree? I’m delighted with Arco in that role.

    Whether the Oilers agree with me is irrelevant. It’s the right move.

    When we talk about getting good players and keeping good players, the critical element for me is that they can over-perform for the role they have to play.

    Gordon over-performs for a 3rd line C. He’s a great example.
    Arco over-performs for a 4th line C. Keep him there.

    Are there ANY other players who over-perform in their roles on this team? All of the D are over their heads, and most of the forwards seem to be okay-ish for their roles, and because they’re young, there’s hope they improve and can better handle their roles in the future.

    But does anyone else out-perform expectations for their position?

    Can you win a cup without players who out-perform?

    My answers are No, and No.

    That’s why you sign Arco for that 4th line C. Because you want a stanley cup.

  51. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    When J.Shultz is with Belov, its not in first pairing minutes/opposition.

    When he’s away from Belov, and specifically with Ference, it is first pairing opposition.

    That’s gong to affect the corgis.

    Also,

    If you haven’t read Tyler’s piece on Keith’s true WOWY, you should: http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6566

    Tyler also takes on MacT for saying that Hall was getting tougher minutes this year:http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6561

    The Qualcomp argument has some value for sure. All these data points need caveats… to the point that even the caveats need them (i.e., qualcomp is hardly without problems).

    The other day when I looked at Belov I pointed to his “sheltered” status:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=EDM&f4=D&f7=&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=relQoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    I’m not living in fear of acknowledging either Belov’s faults or those aspects of his underlying numbers that pose questions.

    The point being, none of these caveats override IMO what the other numbers say. They complement them to suggest a flawed player to be sure, but one that appears to do well when put in a position to succeed (Ideally as a 5-7 with a good partner, but can serve as a 4 in a pinch).

    ————–
    On MC’s Hall article, I think a lot of us had the same intuitive response to MacT that MC did. We all talked last year about Hall pushing the river and against top lines. This was widely discussed. MC did a great job, sorting the actual data, but I don’t think he was making a counter-intuitive point.

    MacT was either shining a turd and lying, hasn’t looked too carefully into the data, or has a bad read on the data.

    ————-
    On MC’s WOWY article… I wonder about whether he’s isolating the data too much… He’s down to tiny segments of time and set groups of skaters. It seems such a narrow focus lends itself to a lot of quantum noise.

    But it certainly is interesting and a good addition/potential adjustment to a great, if flawed, tool in WOWY.

  52. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: HNIC radio, couldnt find the link

    you posted it last night. here it is:

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/hnic-radio-mactavish-on-turning-oilers-into-contender-1.2496734

  53. sliderule says:

    commonfan14,

    Did Pronman have ranking for Yakimov?

    He now has 6g 5a in 32 games and is only 19.

  54. denny33 says:

    sumaclab,
    As far as the pick goes if its a number 1-2 pick( 4-7 more likely) I would take Eckblad without reservation.
    **********************************************************************************
    How is it more likely we would be picking 4-7?

  55. denny33 says:

    commonfan14,

    Thanks for posting that….

  56. commonfan14 says:

    sliderule,

    Yakimov isn’t in his top-50. Klefbom is the only Oiler propspect other than Nurse on the list, and it’s not exactly a glowing review:

    35. Oscar Klefbom, D, Edmonton Oilers
    DOB: 7/20/93 | Age: 20
    2013-14 stats (Oklahoma City, AHL): 26 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3 P
    Preseason ranking: 17

    Klefbom has been mediocre in his first AHL season, showing some of the same issues that arose at the start of his SHL time — poor decision-making and a lack of offensive skill. He turned it around in Sweden with time, so there’s still a fair chance that can happen in North America. His positive traits are his great skating and physical game.

  57. commonfan14 says:

    Lazar made Pronman’s top-20. Zykov not in the top-50, but mentioned as a “just missed”

    11. Andre Burakovsky, LW, Washington Capitals
    DOB: 2/9/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (Erie, OHL): 34 GP, 24 G, 29 A, 53 P
    Preseason ranking: 26

    Burakovsky is not a perfect player. You certainly nitpick that he can try to do too much at times, needs to work on his defense and isn’t the best in the physical game; but, he can certainly stand out. His speed and puck skills are dynamic, he sees the ice well, he works hard for pucks and he can create chances out of nothing.

    ——————————————————————————–

    12. Max Domi, C, Phoenix Coyotes
    DOB: 3/2/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (London, OHL): 36 GP, 23 G, 37 A, 60 P
    Preseason ranking: 16

    Domi was only decent out of the gates this OHL season, but his production really picked up after being cut from Canada’s WJC team. His playmaking abilities are special, as he sees the ice in a unique way and always finds a way to make a play. Domi is small, and not great defensively, but his upside provides reason to be bullish on his future.

    ——————————————————————————–

    13. Alexander Wennberg, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
    DOB: 9/22/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Frolunda, SHL): 33 GP, 13 G, 4 A, 17 P
    Preseason ranking: 31

    Wennberg has taken on a substantial role for Frolunda this season, while also playing well in under-20 competition. He’s a really smart player who distributes the puck at a high level and can also make good defensive reads. There are split opinions in the scouting community over his skating, although from my viewings I really like that area of his game.

    ——————————————————————————–

    14. Mikhail Grigorenko, C, Buffalo Sabres
    DOB: 5/16/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Buffalo, NHL): 18 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 P
    Preseason ranking: 7

    His star has faded a little recently as he hasn’t gotten a ton of ice time in the NHL, and when he has, he hasn’t looked good. There are legitimate concerns about his speed, two-way game and physicality, but there’s a ton to dream on with Grigorenko. You rarely find a big man with his level of offensive capabilities, as he’s one of the best pure passers among NHL prospects.

    ——————————————————————————–

    15. Dmitrij Jaskin, LW, St. Louis Blues
    DOB: 3/23/93 | Age: 20
    2013-14 stats (Chicago, AHL): 23 GP, 9 G, 8 A, 17 P
    Preseason ranking: 51

    Jaskin has been excellent as a first year North American pro, as he’s knocking on the door to the NHL. He’s a prototypical power forward: a big, strong winger who attacks the tough areas. He’s skilled and smart as well, which makes him a player that coaches and fans will really like.

    ——————————————————————————–

    16. Rickard Rakell, C, Anaheim Ducks
    DOB: 5/5/93 | Age: 20
    2013-14 stats (Norfolk, AHL): 31 GP, 10 G, 17 A, 27 P
    Preseason ranking: 44

    Rakell is a really fun player to watch, as he’s a high-skill forward who carries the puck into the zone a lot, and has the creativity to make all kinds of scoring chances happen with his hands and distribution. His defensive play is impressive, as well. In order to make the jump, Rakell needs to get stronger and ideally a little quicker too.

    ——————————————————————————–

    17. Vladislav Namestnikov, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
    DOB: 11/22/92 | Age: 21
    2013-14 stats (Syracuse, AHL): 22 GP, 11 G, 14 A, 25 P
    Preseason ranking: 42

    Before he was injured, Namestnikov was on fire to start his second AHL season alongside top prospect Nikita Kucherov, who is currently in the NHL. Namestnikov is a high-end skater, with good puck possession skills and an admirable on-ice work ethic. His defensive play has shown notable improvement since last season as well.

    ——————————————————————————–

    18. Hunter Shinkaruk, C, Vancouver Canucks
    DOB: 10/13/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Medicine Hat, WHL): 18 GP, 5 G, 11 A, 16 P
    Preseason ranking: 22

    Shinkaruk looked great at Vancouver’s training camp, in the preseason and at the beginning of the WHL season before he suffered a hip injury. After that, his play really tailed off and he ended up needing surgery. Some may believe there are red flags on him, and though he’s higher than his preseason ranking, I’ve dropped him moderately from where I would have slotted him due to these risks. But I want to see him next season before getting too alarmed. When he is on his game, he’s a dynamic puck possessor, though not the best physical player.

    ——————————————————————————–

    19. Riley Barber, RW, Washington Capitals
    DOB: 2/7/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Miami, NCAA): 20 GP, 14 G, 18 A, 32 P
    Preseason ranking: unranked

    Barber has been great in the NCAA in his first two seasons, and has also impressed every time he’s worn the USA jersey. He’s fast, smart, gritty, skilled and has a hard shot as well. Barber has really developed well since 2012 when the Capitals used a sixth-round selection on him.

    ——————————————————————————–

    20. Curtis Lazar, RW, Ottawa Senators
    DOB: 2/2/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (Edmonton, WHL): 27 GP, 21 G, 16 A, 37 P
    Preseason ranking: honorable mention

    I was skeptical going into draft season about Lazar’s offensive upside, but he’s grown on me since. I don’t think he’s a dynamic player with the puck, but he finds a way to be a positive force on every shift. Lazar is a really good skater, who gives it his all on both ends of the ice. He makes good reads and is a quality finisher.

    ——————————————————————————–

    21. Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets
    DOB: 3/28/95 | Age: 18
    2013-14 stats (Prince Albert, WHL): 28 GP, 13 G, 22 A, 35 P
    Preseason ranking: 80

    Morrissey’s a dynamic offensive defenseman, with the high-end instincts that could potentially help him become a good all-around defender down the line. For the moment, he’s a great skater who sees the ice very well and has pretty good hands. However, his frame isn’t the best, in terms of either size or strength level.

    ——————————————————————————–

    22. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Calgary Flames
    DOB: 8/13/93 | Age: 20
    2013-14 stats (Boston College, NCAA): 21 GP, 20 G, 20 A, 40 P
    Preseason ranking: 50

    Continuing his excellent collegiate career, Gaudreau leads the NCAA in goals and points so far this season. He’s a little guy, but he’s so dynamic with the puck. Gaudreau can create many highlight-reel moments, and he processes the game at a unique level.

    ——————————————————————————–

    23. Derrick Pouliot, D, Pittsburgh Penguins
    DOB: 1/16/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Portland, WHL): 28 GP, 9 G, 21 A, 30 P
    Preseason ranking: 68

    Pouliot is the kind of defender you want controlling the puck at all times, because he makes smart plays. He’s a fantastic skater who is agile and fast and difficult to check. He can make flashy plays stick-handling, while also moving the puck at a quick pace. Pouliot rightfully gets dinged for his size and defensive play, but the latter has shown enough improvement to where his prospect stock can be considered more promising given his offensive ability.

    ——————————————————————————–

    24. Calle Jarnkrok, C, Detroit Red Wings
    DOB: 9/25/91 | Age: 22
    2013-14 stats (Grand Rapids, AHL): 38 GP, 10 G, 6 A, 16 P
    Preseason ranking: 35

    Jarnkrok has been just fine in his first AHL season, and I expected more of him given his age and talent. This high ranking is based on hope of greater things to come based on his great hockey sense and creation skills, on top of good things I’ve continuously heard from scouts over the years. The lack of physical development is concerning.

    ——————————————————————————–

    25. Anthony Mantha, LW, Detroit Red Wings
    DOB: 9/16/94 | Age: 19
    2013-14 stats (Val-d’Or, QMJHL): 32 GP, 35 G, 38 A, 73 P
    Preseason ranking: 86

    Mantha has become a big name in the prospect world this season, due to the way he’s been tearing up the QMJHL and his great performance at the WJC (11 points in seven games). He’s a toolsy forward, as he’s big with great speed and can impress with his possession skills or finishing ability. He has to improve his play in the defensive end, as well being a little tougher in battles.

  58. denny33 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    The point being, none of these caveats override IMO what the other numbers say. They complement them to suggest a flawed player to be sure, but one that appears to do well when put in a position to succeed (Ideally as a 5-7 with a good partner, but can serve as a 4 in a pinch).
    **************************************************************************************
    I agree that Belov slots in as a 5-7. That is also where Andrew Ference slots,imo.

    So Mac T – procured two more d-men that slot in the 5-7 ….

    Hopefully, Mac T can continue to target more d-men that slot in the 5-7 range..because for the last few years we have been really, really short on d-men that slot in 5-7 range.

    You know what I hope he targets this summer – more d-men that we can slot in the 5-7 range.

    Don’t get me wrong taking a shot at Belov was a good gamble…

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    denny33: I agree that Belov slots in as a 5-7. That is also where Andrew Ference slots,imo.
    So Mac T – procured two more d-men that slot in the 5-7 ….
    Hopefully, Mac T can continue to target more d-men that slot in the 5-7 range..because for the last few years we have been really, really short on d-men that slot in 5-7 range.
    You know what I hope he targets this summer – more d-men that we can slot in the 5-7 range.
    Don’t get me wrong taking a shot at Belov was a good gamble…

    I think this is a real complaint… but some caveats:

    1. MacT did what he could under the circumstances. In a limited time you can just find 1s and 2s… so he stocked up on 5s and 6s and 7s. better than nothing.

    2. some of these players need some qualification: N. Schultz and Grebs aren’t 7s anymore; Ference and Petry can both play as a 4 (they ride a bit higher); J. Schultz, Belov and Marincin all look like good 5-7 bets going forward.

    larsen and co. are best as gone or occupying the elevator fail safe 8-9 spots.

    3. a player–like Belov–that actually performs well as a 5 is a really valuable thing to have, esp. if you can get a moneypuck discount (like this year).

  60. oilersfan says:

    marincin is a six this year and next but aren’t we projecting him to be a 3 or a 4 in 2 years or so when he has more experience and hopefully 25 more pounds on his frame?

  61. auzy11 says:

    How long must the oiler rebuild continue,relying on prospects,its time to get bold Mct and some pieces have to shipped out in order to aquire some players,the thing i really worry about is how many players are crossing Edmonton off as a destination,as the culture here has been losing,and Eakins i am sorry has no hope of changing it,Mct has to swallow his mistake as Eakins might be a good coach but he was not the coach for this team at this time at all. I am sorry Mr Eakins,if Yak bolts to KHL which i am certain he will there goes a number one draft pick,because of a life long minor league coach,,,,i just dont get it

  62. denny33 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Agree with everything you say – except Andrew Ference.

    Selected in round 8 – 208th overall – in the 1997 draft – he has never had the tools to be a top tier D-man in my opinion. Now in his mid 30′s and being under 6 feet and under 190 pounds – I find him to be outmatched along the boards most times – which was supposed to be his calling card.

    Love his off-ice leadership. Love his character;

    If he plays with Chara or another very strong d-men he can play as a number 4. No such partner exist in Edmonton for Ference.

    Nurse, Ekblad, Buff ( for Sam G. and Klefbom – pipe dream I know ) Petry.

    Petry is a #4 in an ideal world…

  63. auzy11 says:

    Any one who thinks Yak is staying with Eakins around better reconsider,most of the room consider him a lame duck coach as is,how many times can a mistake be made in just hiring a coach never mind the addition of players,Edm has become a miner legue franchise in a major league market.

  64. VanOil says:

    Following on the true value of a designated face puncher is to prevent a team wasting picks or assets acquiring another face puncher I propose the following defensive plan:

    Sign Belov on a affordable deal to partner with Petry next year.

    This would have value forcing Marincin to play/develop the start of the year in the AHL and keep Nurse to under 9 games.

    The following year having Marincin in the line up would force Simpson/Kelfbomb to play/develop the start of the year in the AHL and keep Nurse/Germat in the AHL.

    And on and on.

    As a rule of thumb I would like to Oilers D development to offer no more then a sniff of the NHL at 19 and 20, a cup of coffee at 21 and no full seasons until 22. I am not holding my breath this will happen but I am holding hope. Overripe prospects would be like fine wine to Oilers fans after the team has crushed our collective grapes for years on end.

    Trading for an Ehrhoff/Kulikov/Buff and signing a Petry 2.0 UFA like Andrew MacDonald would give the Oilers a shot of making the playoffs next year and more importantly not screwing up the fine young men in the system now. Belov on the low end can also help bridge the gap.

  65. VanOil says:

    commonfan14,

    Thanks for the paywall subversion.

    It pains me to see Vancouver with 2 top 20 Centers. The Achilles heal of the big club has been 3d and 4th line Centers since Malholtra was pushed out.

  66. RexLibris says:

    Christian Roatis over at FN has an article discussing the top five draft options from a Flames perspective. He has ranked Ekblad #1 and Draisaitl at #4.

    Given that Draisaitl has been something of a mascot for many commenters here I thought I’d bring up this topic.

    Roatis uses Datsyuk as a player comparable for Draisaitl in terms of how he plays, note this excerpt “He has a solid stride and good edge work, but doesn’t seem to posses that elite gear where he can blow past a defender.” Edge work. Those two words shot out of that sentence when I read it.

    Let’s imagine that the Oilers finish 29th overall (humour me) and Ekblad is taken 1st overall. Is getting Draisaitl 2nd a windfall for the OIlers similar to the Flyers drafting Couturier 8th?

  67. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide: I’m a bad, bad man, but am not convinced of Arcobello as a 2line option and am uncertain the Oilers see him as a 4th line player. Torn on it. Like the player, not the fit.

    Between the run of HS to play Acton and the injury there is no path to 80 NHL games by contract end. Can someone tell me why Arcobello won’t be a Group 6 free agent?

  68. VanOil says:

    If you were Tallon and Oilers called about Kulikov would you not ask for Marincin+ back? Should MacT say yes? I can’t see Tallon saying yes to Kelfobom+.

  69. Survioil says:

    Friedeman, just heard Hendricks to Edmonton… Tweet

  70. fifthcartel says:

    Hendricks? What, isn’t he a 4th liner?

  71. Clay says:

    Lowetide: I’m a bad, bad man, but am not convinced of Arcobello as a 2line option and am uncertain the Oilers see him as a 4th line player. Torn on it. Like the player, not the fit.

    Poor Arco. He typifies the adage that small players need to prove they can play, and big players need to prove that they can’t.

    If the Oilers had a rookie C this year winning 50.8% of his draws, seventh in hits for rookies, almost 0.5ppg, and sound defensively, AND he was 6’4, 215lbs, the fanbase would be losing their collective shit. Replace that last bit with 5′ 10, 185lbs, and he’s a throwaway.

  72. fifthcartel says:

    Dubnyk gone haha.

  73. Survioil says:

    I am thinking Gagner is now in Nashville…my guess? Makes sense + more for Sam?

  74. Survioil says:

    fifthcartel,

    No, they tried to sign UFA this summer…rough 3rd…2nd liner depending on linemates.

  75. Bar_Qu says:

    I think I just gave up on this team a little more.

    Certainly, I lowered my opinion of the GM a lot.

  76. Tarkus says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 2m

    #Oilers acquire forward Matt Hendricks from @PredsNHL in exchange for goaltender Devan Dubnyk.

    I know Dubnyk has been craptastic this year…but for Matt Hendricks? 4-points-in-44-games-this-year Matt Hendricks? I hope he at least brings truculence.

    Sail on Kamloops Blazer…

  77. Survioil says:

    fifthcartel,

    You were right for DD… I like it..

  78. Lois Lowe says:

    Maybe Hendricks gets bought out?

  79. goldenchild says:

    This fucking team. What does this fix? This cant be 1 for 1. I refuse to believe that

  80. Clay says:

    Hendricks – 6’0″ 211lbs, left shot, C
    307 GP, 29G, 33A, 62P, 419 PIM for his career
    53.8% faceoffs this year in very small sample (14 for 26), but was better than 53% in his last three seasons in Washington.

  81. JohnnyRocket says:

    Dubnyk for Matt Hendricks! TSN. Thoughts?

  82. oilersfan says:

    can anyone provide the fancy stats on Hendricks? does he face tough comp? good corsi? pk? TOI? thanks

    goldenchild the Oilers were going to let Dubnyk walk make no mistake…better than nothing…

  83. LostBoy says:

    Um…whut? A 32 year old fourth line C with utterly no offense signed for three more seasons.

    Beats me.

  84. oilersfan says:

    one thing I like about trading Dubnyk is it opens up a spot on the roster for Bachman I would like to see what we have in him . he was a superstar goalie in college and now after kicking aroud the minors for awhile hopefully he is a keeper (pun intended). smallish but similar to CUJO in stats and size.

  85. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    They couldn’t trade Bryz?

    Dubs is the better bet going forward… especially after that egg last night.

    oooph.

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bachman coming up?

    Brossoit to OKC?

  87. fifthcartel says:

    Stauffer says they aren’t done yet. Oh god. Goalie incoming?

  88. DBO says:

    I suppose an actual nhl player for the 3rd or 4th line. Adds grit and two way ability. I assume this is just the start of what could be a busy week for MacT

  89. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    goldenchild:
    This fucking team.What does this fix?This cant be 1 for 1.I refuse to believe that

    The Oilers would never manipulate the goaltender situation to lock up the lottery pick they want? Never mind.

  90. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    ‘scuse me while I kiss the sky…

  91. LostBoy says:

    In light of the Spector/Willis/Staples go round this morning:

    I guess they weren’t overvaluing this particular player.

  92. JohnnyRocket says:

    I suppose we’re all in with Bryz. Unless MacT has a Gagner for goaltender trade in his back pocket. Scrivens? Gibson? I’m not seeing any matches? Perhaps MacT is going scorched earth for the remainder of the season. Facepalm.

  93. denny33 says:

    RexLibris,

    Let’s imagine that the Oilers finish 29th overall (humour me) and Ekblad is taken 1st overall. Is getting Draisaitl 2nd a windfall for the OIlers similar to the Flyers drafting Couturier 8th?
    ***********************************************************
    Oilers have massive deficit for high end D-men and Centres.

    I prefer Ekblad – but would have no problem taking Bennett or Draisati kid…..

    Assuming picking 2nd overall – Oilers will fill one of their desperate needs this summer and Mac T is correct to rethink his plan of trading the pick.

    High end 2C – and the cost will be Zero.

  94. Clay says:

    That’s good asset management by Nashville. They bring in a plug 4th line C as a free agent in September, and turn him around for a very serviceable goalie who’s having a bad year. Smart.

    You watch, DD will be a .920 goalie behind Nashville’s defence.

    Which leads me to the thought I had regarding the Oilers goaltending for next year – they could bring in a 28 year old Hasek and it won’t matter unless they seriously improve the personnel on the blueline and the team’s defensive coverage strategy in general. I’m convinced that DD’s trouble this year is as much about the Oilers giving the opposition free passes to the front of the net as much as it is about his stick being too short…

  95. book¡je says:

    Phew, I was really worried about the Oilers finishing in 29th place this year, but this seems to solidify 30th place for us

    Note – this is my immediate sarcastic remark which in recent history is usually wrong with MacT doing better than I initially estimate.

  96. ASkoreyko says:

    Was Smyth really that bad as a 4C? This is a crazy trade.

    Please someone step in and explain why MacT didn’t just make a terrible decision?

    I am starting to get close to not caring…

  97. G Money says:

    LostBoy:
    Um…whut?A 32 year old fourth line C with utterly no offense signed for three more seasons.

    Beats me.

    Only thing I can think of is that this paves the way for a Gaouoniaix trade. We now have a fourth line C to replace Arco, who would in turn replace Gagner at 2C.

    But given that this guy has no offense and mediocre Corsi’s, he doesn’t even remotely look like an upgrade at 4C, so unless MacT has a fantastic return for Sammy all lined up, and/or a trade lined up for a true 1G, this makes no sense at all. Maybe the Cam Ward for Sammy rumour will turn out to be true.

    I give MacT leeway for his rookieness and intelligence, but barring a follow up, this looks like a bad trade, a trade for trading’s sake. The shine is slowly fading from the MacT apple …

  98. oilersfan says:

    this is from the Washington post from april 2013…

    Matt Hendricks, Capitals in talks about contract extension

    ← return to Capitals Watch

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    By Stephen Whyno – The Washington Times

    April 3, 2013, 06:00AM

    Buffalo Sabres’ goaltender Jhonas Enroth (1), of Sweden, gets beat for goal by Washington Capitals’ center Matt Hendricks (26) during the team shootout of an NHL hockey game in Buffalo, N.Y., Saturday, March 30, 2013. Washington won 4-3. (AP Photo/Gary Wiepert)
    Enlarge Photo
    Buffalo Sabres’ goaltender Jhonas Enroth (1), of Sweden, gets beat for goal … more >

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    The Washington Capitals are in talks to sign forward Matt Hendricks to a new contract, though it’s uncertain if something will get done before Wednesday’s 3 p.m. trade deadline.

    Along with center Mike Ribeiro, the Caps have a few role players set to be unrestricted free agents this summer. None does as much for the team as Hendricks.

    He can play all three forward positions and is a key penalty killer and shootout specialist. Hendricks can drop the gloves, but coach Adam Oates doesn’t want him fighting because he’s counted on to win short-handed faceoffs.

    “He’s got a lot of heart and plays really hard,” linemate Jay Beagle said recently. “He’s obviously a great team guy, everyone knows that, and a great guy to have in your locker room. He steps up every night.”

    Hendricks will be 32 by July, when the unrestricted free agent market opens. He’s looking for something of a long-term commitment from the franchise that not too long ago gave him his first one-way contract.

    Hendricks is in the final season of a two-year deal that pays him $825,000 annually. Given that he has played on the first line at times and filled so many different roles, he figures to get a substantial raise.

    Agent Michael Wulkan, who has had conversations with the Caps’ front office for a while now, said he was “cautiously optimistic” about getting a deal done.

    Hendricks would like to stay in Washington, but that will likely take something beyond two years. Brandon Prust’s four-year, $10 million contract with the Montreal Canadiens might be a good comparison; the forward was 28 at the time he signed the deal after a season with five goals and 12 assists. Extrapolate Hendricks’ numbers over an 82-game season and he’d have 16 points on nine goals and seven assists.

    Hendricks has won 58.5 percent of his 188 faceoffs this season. He’s second to Beagle among Caps forwards in short-handed ice time at 68:23. And he’s 9-for-13 in the shootout in his career, his 69 percent success rate best in the NHL among those with at least 10 attempts.

    Hendricks’ road from minor leaguer to gritty NHLer made him the Caps’ Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy nominee in 2010-11. He has spent some time on the first line alongside Alex Ovechkin this season, and that versatility hasn’t gone unnoticed. If the St. Cloud State graduate reaches unrestricted free agency, there are at least a couple of teams who would jump at the opportunity to add his skill-set.

    One of Hendricks’ skills is fighting, which helped him climb the ranks in professional hockey, but ex-Colorado Avalanche teammate and friend Cody McLeod once told him to fight less. Caps coach Adam Oates agrees with that notion.

    “Hendy, I’ve talked to him like: ‘I know you like to fight, but you’re a penalty killer. You’re a guy that takes faceoffs; I need you on the ice,’ ” Oates said.

    As of Tuesday night, the Caps and Hendricks’ camp weren’t close on agreeing to a new deal. But that can change at any moment.

    Hendricks said March 19 that contract negotiations were the least of his concerns as he concentrated on his job and winning games.

    He suffered a scratched eye in Washington’s victory over the Carolina Hurricanes that caused him to play just four shifts in the last two periods. Oates said Hendricks was OK.

    “He’s obviously tough,” Beagle said. “It takes a lot to get that guy out of the lineup. For him not to come back, he’s got to be almost half-dead. We know that he’s a hard-working guy and a heart guy. That’s what he does.”

    Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/capitals-watch/2013/apr/3/matt-hendricks-capitals-talks-contract-extension/#ixzz2qUt0mtEQ
    Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

  99. Woodguy says:

    book¡je:
    Phew, I was really worried about the Oilers finishing in 29th place this year, but this seems to solidify 30th place for us

    Note – this is my immediate sarcastic remark which in recent history is usually wrong with MacT doing better than I initially estimate.

    No, you are right.

    Hendricks is, a 32 year old 4C who runs a 40%CF and is still under contract for 3 years at $1.85MM

    I can’t imagine a player who has more negative value.

    Just an awful trade.

  100. book¡je says:

    This seems like a salary dump to make cap room (with Nashville sending a bit of salary and a service player back).

  101. oilersfan says:

    so Hendricks is a fourth line center who played 32 minutes some nights in the playoffs in 2012 for Dale Hunter in Washington. he wins faceoffs, can fight, is a veryh good PK. , and a shootout specialist.

    To me this is not a bad trade don’t know what you guys are complaining about. The oilers need this type of player and Dubnyk is not perceived as being very good around the league. no problems to me…

    stauffer is saying the oielrs are going to trade for a ufa goalie who has played well lately in a minor deal. I bet scrivens or khudobin,. I wonder what we are trading? bryz? Ryan Jones?

  102. G Money says:

    Oilersfan: Along with center Mike Ribeiro, the Caps have a few role players set to be unrestricted free agents this summer. None does as much for the team as Hendricks.
    He can play all three forward positions and is a key penalty killer and shootout specialist. Hendricks can drop the gloves, but coach Adam Oates doesn’t want him fighting because he’s counted on to win short-handed faceoffs.
    “He’s got a lot of heart and plays really hard,” linemate Jay Beagle said recently. “He’s obviously a great team guy, everyone knows that, and a great guy to have in your locker room. He steps up every night.”

    Woodguy: Hendricks is, a 32 year old 4C who runs a 40%CF and is still under contract for 3 years at $1.85MM

    Looks like this will be a classic battle of the “seen him good” / “character” / “intangibles” assessment vs the fancy stats assessment.

    I hope the former wins out, but I ain’t holding my breath.

  103. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: No, you are right.

    Hendricks is, a 32 year old 4C who runs a 40%CF and is still under contract for 3 years at $1.85MM

    I can’t imagine a player who has more negative value.

    Just an awful trade.

    Dammit Woodguy, you were the guy I was expecting to explain why this isn’t an insane move to me. What worries me is that regardless of what MacT does now, he loses significantly on this trade (should have been able to trade Dubnyk for a 2nd round pick at least). When the second shoe drops, it better be impressive.

  104. fifthcartel says:

    I feel like Ben Scrivens is gonna be an Oiler real quick

  105. goldenchild says:

    oilersfan: can anyone provide the fancy stats on Hendricks? does he face tough comp? good corsi? pk? TOI? thanksgoldenchild the Oilers were going to let Dubnyk walk make no mistake…better than nothing…

    No nothing would be much better than a bad 4th line player making 1.85 million for 4 years. Nothing has about 2 times the value over that player on that contract.

  106. oilersfan says:

    woodguy, what are his zonestarts and quality of competition? sounds like he is boyd Gordon but not as good…57% faceoff specialist

    dubnyk wasn’t going to stay and I doubt any contender wanted him for a draft pick

  107. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    Can anyone tell the difference between Mac T and Tamby?

    Honestly?

    This is hard to believe and almost smells of desperation….

  108. book¡je says:

    oilersfan:
    woodguy, what are his zonestarts and quality of competition? sounds like he is boyd Gordon but not as good…57% faceoff specialist

    dubnyk wasn’t going to stay and I doubt any contender wanted him for a draft pick

    I disagree, Dubnyk would have been a good bet for a contender looking for an extra goalie just in case. Should have been worth a 2nd round pick at the deadline.

  109. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Smithson, Hendricks

    Birds of a feather

    I guess Lander can start packing his bags. His competition is under contract for a thousand years.

    We couldn’t get Zack Smith?

  110. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    book¡je: Dammit Woodguy, you were the guy I was expecting to explain why this isn’t an insane move to me.What worries me is that regardless of what MacT does now, he loses significantly on this trade (should have been able to trade Dubnyk for a 2nd round pick at least).When the second shoe drops, it better be impressive.

    Not to worry, Capital Power is gonna win the trade.

  111. Derek says:

    What a relief. So many times this season I watched this team play and I thought to myself that if they had one more shitty possession player who could punch faces and chase opposing players with the puck to make THUNDEROUS BODY CHECKS that they just might have something here.

  112. G Money says:

    oilersfan,

    He better be a damn fine PK player and a mighty hitter, because the player usage chart does not scream good things at me:

    http://i.imgur.com/iW28doc.png

  113. striatic says:

    Trade opens up a whole bunch of cap space.

    Like the Smid trade, the bonus cap space has got to be used at some point to evaluate what this trade really is.

  114. oilersfan says:

    considering how many people here like to speculate about the OIlers , it amazes me you don’t listen to stauffer more…people have been calling in for weeks asking what dubnyk’;s market value is, and he has said he thinks a fourth round pick….one fan asked if dubnyk could get a second roud pick and stauffer said we would need three contenders have their backup going down two days before the trade deadline for the oilers to get a second rounder for him…

    stauffer is buddies with scott howson and knows what is happening.

    I don’t know too much about Hendricks but I do know dubnyk had next to no value around the league as a UFA

  115. russ99 says:

    Dubnyk trade has to be another salary dump. Wait for the second deal.

    At least Ryan Smyth doesn’t have to play center now.

  116. Yeti says:

    I’m pretty certain that MacT was after Christina Hendricks and just got confused. Her breasts would have made quite an impact on the PK.

  117. oilersfan says:

    according to that article above Hendricks plays the second most minutes for Washington penalty killers in 2013 with a 57% faceoff rate and is 9 for 13 in his career in shootouts., and played 11 minutes a night in Washington, some nights on the first line. his corsi is bad because he takes tough comp in his own zone.

    I cant say I have ever watched him play but this team needs veteran forwards who are good defensively with size who can kill penalties and fight back from time to time.

    for those of you who think that is worse than a fourth round pick I disagree

  118. fifthcartel says:

    This is pretty dumb, still.

  119. JohnnyRocket says:

    There is a smell of panic in the air. I am going to trust MacT for now. Smid has been playing poorly in Calgary, and we got some value out of that. MacT wanted to replace Dubnyk in the summer, and then he sh@t the bed to start the year. Even if MacT hasn’t been getting what we think are dollar for dollar trades, he has been good at identifying players whose play is declining and filling organizational holes. Just not the most important ones, yet. This, if nothing else, makes me sure Gagner is gone, baby, gone.

  120. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    striatic:
    Trade opens up a whole bunch of cap space.

    Like the Smid trade, the bonus cap space has got to be used at some point to evaluate what this trade really is.

    Nope. Friedman says we retained half of DD’s cap.

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 2m
    For bookkeeping purposes: EDM retains half of Dubnyk’s salary

  121. striatic says:

    oh wait .. i thought Hendricks was 850k, not 1.8 million.

    still a savings but a late round draft pick would make more sense if this was just about salary.

    what surprises me most is that he isn’t “Heavy” as MacT likes to say. i thought we wanted big guys now.

  122. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Worst GM move of the year?

  123. striatic says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Nope. Friedman says we retained half of DD’s cap.

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 2m
    For bookkeeping purposes: EDM retains half of Dubnyk’s salary

    that’s .. insane.

  124. DBO says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 4m
    For bookkeeping purposes: EDM retains half of Dubnyk’s salary

    say whhhaaatttt????????

  125. russ99 says:

    Gonna be interesting to see MacT explain his way out of this one…

  126. Bag of Pucks says:

    Serious question. Is this team better today with Seguin, Landeskog, Ryan Murray and Nicushskin over Hall, RNH, Yakupov and Nurse?

  127. oilersfan says:

    you guys who are mad…what do you think the oilers should have done with Dubnyk? sign him? he has been very poor this year, below replacement value…trade him for a fourth round pick? why?

    they got a guy like Eric Nystrom or Brandon Prust…not sure why you are all so depressed about this.

  128. JohnnyRocket says:

    G Money:
    oilersfan,

    He better be a damn fine PK player and a mighty hitter, because the player usage chart does not scream good things at me:

    http://i.imgur.com/iW28doc.png

    All is see in that chart is Roman Josi. Gagner and defensive prospect for Josi?

  129. stevezie says:

    I’m not shocked an impending UFA goalie in the middle of an incompetent season has no value (never understood the argument that he had any), but I am deeply confused as to why we would want Matt Hendrix. I don’t know that I would have claimed that contract off waivers.

    The Washington article oilersfan posted speaks pretty highly of him, but I don’t see much too him this season.

  130. stevezie says:

    JohnnyRocket,

    Gags straight up, I would think.

  131. Big Dan says:

    Great trade!

    Ignore the stats. He’s a veteran, he’s tough, and he’s a great penalty killer and banger = fills the 4th line role perfectly. Wil Acton and Anton Lander failed in their auditions. Gordon and Hendricks as our #3 and #4C is great. (I personally like Arco for #2 as well.)

    Dubnyk will be a backup for the rest of his career. They got fair value for him. If Hendricks won’t sign here, TRADE for him instead. Love it.

    Keep it up, MacT!

  132. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Nope. Friedman says we retained half of DD’s cap.

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 2m
    For bookkeeping purposes: EDM retains half of Dubnyk’s salary

    Ludicrous. This entire trade keeps getting worse.

    If they wanted to just dump Dubey, they wouldn’t have taken the cap hit.

    They must want Hendricks… who is marginal, old, and signed forever.

  133. LostBoy says:

    For the notion that Hendricks can be a useful piece: sure, maybe. If he was 28 I’d probably agree. But he’s soon to be 33 and we’re taking on his 33-, 34-, and 35-year old seasons at $1.8m per. It’s… awfully rare for a journeyman to maintain performance in that age range (see: Belanger, E.). The comparison to Jerred Smithson is closest, except Smithson had size and was an expiring contract.

  134. Bar_Qu says:

    book¡je:
    This seems like a salary dump to make cap room (with Nashville sending a bit of salary and a service player back).

    Except that the Oilers kept some of Dubnyk’s salary instead.

    This is a firing level offense.

  135. fifthcartel says:

    So is Scrivens the real deall or….

  136. Genjutsu says:

    Its been said before and should be repeated CF% without the context of ZS is often misleading. This is a player that has value to our forth line.

    If you think he can be replaced easily on the UFA front, I beg to differ.

    Remember as early as this morning people here said it would be impossible to give Dubie away.

    This also precludes Dubie returning to for or god forbid exceeding past levels and killing a chance at a top 5 pick.

    Be happy.

  137. LostBoy says:

    oilersfan:
    you guys who are mad…what do you think the oilers should have done with Dubnyk? sign him? he has been very poor this year, below replacement value…trade him for a fourth round pick? why?

    they got a guy like Eric Nystrom or Brandon Prust…not sure why you are all so depressed about this.

    I dunno what they should have done, but they shouldn’t have taken on a guy who’ll be 33 after this season for three more (almost certainly fading) years at $1.8m per.

    Nystrom is 30. Prust is 29.

  138. oilersfan says:

    stevezie,

    stevezie, you think you wouldn’t pick up Hendricks on waivers? He will be 35 in the last year. that is two years younger than Smyth is now.

    I wonder if anybody would pick up Gagner on waivers with that contract and that defensive play…but you think he is worth a second pairing dman? when the “insiders” on sportsnet are saying he wouldn’t be worth a third round pick because of his contract…

  139. steveb12344 says:

    I say we give Jimmy a chance. He might fit in well here. Isn’t he the player type that we need a little more of?

  140. Tarkus says:

    Scrivens to EDM for a 3rd:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 26s

    Sounds like Ben Scrivens has been traded from LA to EDM, 3rd round pick headed back to LA.

  141. Marcus Oilerius says:

    How do I compare Vollman charts of Belanger when he was signed, and Hendricks now?

  142. oilersfan says:

    here is an article from preseason from the Nashville tenessean. Ya Trotz is an idiot…

    Nashville Predators’ Matt Hendricks adds versatility

    Josh Cooper , USA TODAY Sports 8:16 p.m. EDT September 13, 2013

    091313-matt-hendricks-file

    (Photo: Mark Humphrey, AP)

    Story Highlights
    Former Capitals forward Matt Hendricks signed a four-year, $7.4 million contract with the Predators
    Hendricks can play center or wing on pretty much any line
    Nashville drafted Henricks in 2000 but opted not to sign him

    SHARECONNECT 6 TWEETCOMMENTEMAILMORE

    NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Girtty, grinding forward Matt Hendricks stood in front of his locker at Centennial Sportsplex and ticked off the names of some former linemates with the Washington Capitals.

    Mike Ribeiro. Nicklas Backstrom. Alexander Ovechkin.

    All three are offensive players who lent to the versatility of Hendricks, who can play center or wing on pretty much any line.

    That’s what the Predators were looking for when they signed him in the offseason, a player to boost forward depth that was decimated by injuries last season.

    ALEX PIETRANGELO: Blues sign defenseman

    “The biggest thing is Matt’s an ultimate team player,” said Milwaukee Admirals coach Dean Evason, who coached Hendricks in Washington. “He plays the game the right way, but he plays for his teammates. He plays a very gritty game.

    “He can kill penalties, and I think he can play all three positions very well, and has probably more offensive upside than people give him credit for, or his numbers have shown, because he can play the game offensively given that opportunity.”

    The Predators never seemed to have a healthy lineup at forward last season. Colin Wilson, Paul Gaustad, Mike Fisher and Gabriel Bourque all missed extended periods of time with injuries, leaving holes either on the wing (Bourque and Wilson) or at center (Gaustad and Fisher).

    Enter Hendricks.

    PLAYERS POLL: Who is the next powerhouse?

    “I enjoy both wing and center,” he said. “I enjoy the freedom of being center, and when I say freedom, you’re all over the ice a little bit more, you get the puck a little bit more. But I also enjoy wing, because you can get on the forecheck and be more physical in the offensive zone, so they both have their pluses.”

    Hendricks’ decision to sign a four-year, $7.4 million contract with the Predators represents a homecoming of sorts. Nashville drafted him in the fifth round in 2000. Ultimately they didn’t see him in their long-term plans and opted not to sign him. The Bruins picked him up as a free agent in 2007.

    He spent the past three seasons with the Capitals as an important contributor and character player. His best season was 2010-11, when he notched 25 points in 77 games. Last season, he won 56.8 percent of his faceoffs.

    “In the first place, realistically, we should have signed him,” Predators assistant general manager Paul Fenton said. “But give him all the credit in the world. He has turned himself into a much better player than we had seen back then. His contribution on the ice is, as you see, it’s energetic, it’s physical, it’s sandpapery, and his personality has never changed.”

    During a scrimmage at Centennial Sportsplex on Friday, Hendricks played wing at times on a line with Gaustad at center and Rich Clune on the other wing. He will likely stay with Gaustad and Clune for the forseeable future, forming a pretty solid “grind line.”

    With his versatility, however, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Hendricks play somewhere else as camp continues.

    “It just gives you more depth in every position,” coach Barry Trotz said. “It’s like that good utility infielder. If someone goes down, you still have a pretty good infield. It doesn’t matter what position. That’s where he can really help us.”

    Josh Cooper writes for The Tennessean, a Gannett company.

  143. oilersfan says:

    so dubnyk and a third rounder for Matt Hendrick and Ben Scrivens.

    Not sure how this is a bad day…

  144. DBO says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 39s
    Sounds like Ben Scrivens has been traded from LA to EDM, 3rd round pick headed back to LA.

    new post up as well

  145. Melman says:

    It could well be they had to take salary back, he brings PK and some toughness and this is part 1 of a deal for a G. The contract stinks but: a) the cap is going up a lot next year and/or b) they can test drive him for 40 games and then buy him out in the summer if they want since their really isn’t anyone else they would use the buyout on. The buyout cost is approx. = to the difference in salary they would be paying DD for the rest of this season so that’s a wash.

  146. OilBuzz says:

    YESSSSSS! SCRIVENS!

  147. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Here are the comments from the Nashville Predators HF…

    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1582835

    Edit: Should say I love this. We pay more this year but we get rid of those final three awful years of Hendricks’ contract.

    You guys should have done this 2 months ago… Get a serviceable goalie back for an awful contract on Hendricks.

    <LOL we got rid of Hendrick's awful contract and got an NHL level goaltender to roll with for the rest of the season. Good deal.

    Dubnyk isn't great but he is at least not an AHL guy that shouldn't be in the league (Hutton) or a guy that is way too inexperienced to play regular NHL right now (Mazanec).

    Wow I love this deal. We got rid of that contract!

    Half of his remaining salary, right? So roughly $875,000?

    Regardless, that’s hilarious. We completely won this trade.

  148. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Scrivens for a 3rd.

    great move. Love that one. Not sure you needed to give up Dubs for so little.

  149. Marcus Oilerius says:

    OMG WE GOT SCRIVENS?!

    How… how does MacT go from idiot to genius in one stroke?!

  150. Melman says:

    DBO,

    So Kings get Frattin a 2nd and a 3rd for Bernier. How would folks rate that return?

  151. OilBuzz says:

    I am so happy right now

  152. G Money says:

    JohnnyRocket: All is see in that chart is Roman Josi. Gagner and defensive prospect for Josi?

    Man, that would be f*kin great. I actually have thought Nsh should be a trading partner for O-for-D. They have Josi and Weber signed long term, Ellis will need a contract next year, and Jones of course a few years later. No way a sub-cap-constrained team like them can keep all those guys around, let alone keep them and ice any sort of forward corps.

    Unfortunately, if they’re moving any of those guys, there are likely 28 other teams besides the Oilers in the lineup …

    Genjutsu: Its been said before and should be repeated CF% without the context of ZS is often misleading. This is a player that has value to our forth line.

    I posted the player usage chart earlier. Hendricks does have tough zone starts, but his QOC is weak and his Corsi is bad, so it’s tough to put lipstick on that pig.

  153. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Scrivens for a 3rd.

    great move. Love that one. Not sure you needed to give up Dubs for so little.

    It makes sense. MacT has (mostly) restored my faith in him.

    Most of us questioning the Dubey trade earlier caveated (?) it with “it makes sense if another goalie is on the way”. If you’ve got the deal in place for Scrivens, then you don’t have the luxury of waiting for full value for Dubnyk – you have to take whatever you can find.

    Thin markets usually mean bad prices, and I can’t imagine there is much of a market for a struggling goalie right now.

  154. VanOil says:

    Scrivens is a viable 1B and this Gordless team needs more Atheists. That 6th round pick we got for Omark might be our top pick in the this years Draft if we are taking on Salary dumps such as Hendricks rather than picks.

  155. stevezie says:

    oilersfan,

    You’ve convinced me to be open to the idea that Hendricks has value, but that contract man! That contract sucks. You’ve got to consider his player type.

    Smyth has some very underrated skill and hockey sense to help him along. Hendricks is a guy who made the league late because he needed to be at the pinnacle of his game to be a productive hockey player, and even then as an (apparently pretty good) 4th liner.

    So yeah, maybe he is being under-appreciated here, but he is also at the age where guys like him start to take hard, fast downturns. He does not play a finesse game. Look at Jordan Tootoo; it is a dangerous game to commit long-term to guys whose job description involves destroying themselves. I’m happy for him- he got the dream contract. I wouldn’t want to be the one paying it.

    On the up side, I’m not. It’s Katz’ money and it is very possible Kev phoned him and said, “Hey big D. Remember that goalie who clearly has no market value? We can trade him for a guy who will make our fourth line better, which we all know isn’t a huge deal, but every improvement counts, right? God is in the details? Okay, no, cool, we’re gonna do it, but… At his age, there’s a pretty good chance we have to buy him out in a couple of years. Maybe next year. Look- No, look, this team doesn’t need another 4th round pick, does it? Maybe a 3rd? A 2nd? Look big D, you’re the pharmacist here but I think you’ve taken too much, we’re not getting a 2nd for DD this year, okay? We’re just not. Don’t be a bitch, okay? Just say I can buy him out if I need to, and we will marginally improve this team. Hopefully. Maybe not though, but come on, life is a game of risks, right?”

    The above makes sense if you think Hendricks is better than Lander, or even might be better than Lander.

  156. TeeVee says:

    Big Dan:
    Great trade!

    Ignore the stats.He’s a veteran, he’s tough, and he’s a great penalty killer and banger = fills the 4th line role perfectly.Wil Acton and Anton Lander failed in their auditions.Gordon and Hendricks as our #3 and #4C is great.(I personally like Arco for #2 as well.)

    Dubnyk will be a backup for the rest of his career.They got fair value for him.If Hendricks won’t sign here, TRADE for him instead.Love it.

    Keep it up, MacT!

    Finally a sensible comment regarding this trade. Hendricks is exactly the kinda guy this team needs. Using Smithson as a comparable is ridiculous. Smithson wouldn’t hurt a fly; Hendricks would.

    As for the Scrivens deal: very nice. MacT is probably already figured out how to get that 3rd round pick back as well.

  157. Bar_Qu says:

    The only way this day gets better is if MacT’s next move is acquiring Weber or Roman Josi for Garglejay in a tit for tat move.

    But seriously, anything less is grounds for firing today.

  158. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Scrivens for a 3rd.

    great move. Love that one. Not sure you needed to give up Dubs for so little.

    It tells you something about the value of goalies. Scrivens has much, much, better career numbers than Dubnyk in the AHL as well as the NHL.

  159. icecastles says:

    Big Dan: Ignore the stats.

    And with that, it is safe to ignore the rest of your post.

  160. G Money says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    How do I compare Vollman charts of Belanger when he was signed, and Hendricks now?

    Just adjust the slider. Here’s the chart:

    http://i.imgur.com/c5vx2oT.png

  161. icecastles says:

    Cap/CBA question: if the Oilers are paying half his remaining salary does that necessarily mean half his salary still counts to the Oilers’ cap? My understanding is that in the new CBA, there is some leeway for these two things to be moved about independently of one another, something like how an LTIR player still gets paid, but there is no cap hit for the duration of time he is off the roster.

    Though this would seem more likely if Dubnyk were traded to a poor team that had the cap space but not the dollars. I believe Washington is on very sound financial footing and doesn’t have an internal cap.

  162. stevezie says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: great move. Love that one. Not sure you needed to give up Dubs for so little.

    I was about to wonder if NYI wouldn’t have been desperate enough to try Dubnyk, but the value of Scrivens is a third. You might be able to argue that in light of his draft pedigree, international play and strong last season Dubnyk has equal value to Scrivens, but you would have a hard time telling me he has more. At this point I think the Oilers need a good NHL player, even a 4th liner, more than they need a 3rd.

    The question as to whether Hendricks is such a player is open to debate, but I comfort myself with the reminder that if we need to Eager Hendricks, it Katz’ money and I don’t care.

    VanOil:
    Scrivens is a viable 1B and this Gordless team needs more Atheists. That 6th round pick we got for Omark might be our top pick in the this years Draft if we are taking on Salary dumps such as Hendricks rather than picks.

    Do not forget we are about to trade a few guys for picks/prospects. Just pretend we moved Nick Schultz for Ben Scrivens- that’s about what this equals.

    Scrivens is no saviour, but he should make a fine backup (not even 1b) next year and right now we lacked that. The goalie search remains where it was.

    Bookyee? How are you feeling? I hated this at first but have explained it to myself in a way that makes sense. I still don’t like the Hendrix pickup, but I can at least see the thinking behind it.

  163. Woodguy says:

    book¡je: Dammit Woodguy, you were the guy I was expecting to explain why this isn’t an insane move to me.What worries me is that regardless of what MacT does now, he loses significantly on this trade (should have been able to trade Dubnyk for a 2nd round pick at least).When the second shoe drops, it better be impressive.

    Hendricks is a good PKer by the SA/60 numbers.

    He’s not totally useless.

    The term and $ for a 32 year old are too much though.

    Might be ok in the short term.

  164. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    fifthcartel:
    I feel like Ben Scrivens is gonna be an Oiler real quick

    What are the lottery numbers?

  165. denny33 says:

    book¡je,

    Bang on….

  166. denny33 says:

    oilersfan,

    What do you think a 3rd party city thinks of the deal?

    Winnipeg radio is in shock anyone would want a 32 year old Hendricks.

    Later, they found out Hendricks makes nearly 2 million dollars ( 1.8 ) ….

    Shocked.

  167. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    Any chance Mac T acquired Hendricks to flip him at the deadline for a draft pick WG?

    This seems like a pick up a contending team would make for a run…

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