ANALYZING THE DAY

Craig MacTavish acquired another candidate for Oilers #1 goaltender in 2014-15, and once again the player is a free agent this summer. The success of today’s transactions may hinge on signing the player to a reasonable deal, as the third round pick sent to Los Angeles is small payment if the club can solve their goalie issues long term. It’s a reasonable bet, a trade good NHL teams make all the time—and even if it doesn’t work out it’s a solid bet.

The second trade doesn’t read that way, and suggests the Oilers under Dallas Eakins may have more in common with the truculent Leafs than the ‘advanced math’ verbal we heard at the time of Dallas Eakins arrival.

Matt Hendricks can take faceoffs, penalty kill and play all three forward positions. There is some evidence he played on the top 9 in Nashville, which is incredible when looking at scoring rates:

hendricks captureHendricks delivered more offensively last season, looks like he’s in a shooting slump this year. Nashville has had a tough time of it this season, his Corsi For % 5×5 is well down from one year ago. I’ll have a look at how he was handled in Washington in a minute

oiler centersThese are the six players who Edmonton now has hanging around at center, although Arcobello is listed as R and of course Smyth is/was currently playing center for the Oilers. I think we can make a case for Nuge-Arco-Gordon-Hendricks now, it’ll be sealed when Gagner is sent away. I can’t find a way to get Lander onto next season’s roster from here. He might be a really nice pickup for a team looking for a 4th liner who can penalty kill.

Hendricks is not a good player this season in Nashville, and his Corsi for 5×5% reflects it:

hendricks 13-14This shows (courtesy James Mirtle on twitter) that Hendricks is the 8th worst possession forward among regulars in the entire NHL this season. That my friends, isn’t good, especially considering the ask (Dubnyk). What did this category look like one year ago? hendricks 12-13Well, he’s in a better neighborhood, and then again he was on a different team in a different conference. Hendricks isn’t a good NHL regular, and he’s past 30, so I’m not certain we should expect 47% during his time in Edmonton.

It might be helpful to see how he was used in Washington compared to Nashville:

  • EV: 9:12 (NAS) 9:55 (WAS)
  • PK: 2:18 (NAS) 1:54 (WAS)
  • Faceoffs: 26 (53.8 NAS) 259 (56.8 WAS)

Not a lot of change in TOI, but he played more center in Washington (and had a better season). I doubt either season gives us enough of a sample to draw any kind of conclusion, but it’s something to keep in mind.

TEAMMATES IN NASHVILLE  (5×5)

  • Paul Gaustad 292minutes
  • Rich Clune 137minutes
  • Eric Nystrom 110minutes

hendricks toi 13-14That looks like 4th line to me, Clune and Hendricks are at the bottom of the EV toi table, with Hendricks getting significant PK time. That’s kind of what he might have seen from Eric Belanger with the Oilers over the last few seasons (along with drastic zone starts, something Hendricks shares to a certain extent).

Nashville: lots of penalty-killing time, played mostly on the wing, fairly severe zone start, 4th line even strength minutes with the offensively challenged. Fair?

TEAMMATES IN WASHINGTON

  • Jay Beagle 248minutes
  • Alex Ovechkin 118minutes
  • Mike Ribiero 95minutes

Well, that’s just weird. I’ll post the link just in case you think I’m crazy.

hendricks 12-13 toiNot much different here, he plays a little more but is down toward the end of the roster. Washington is a strange hockey team, they really are. I don’t know what to make of the 100 wasted minutes with 8 save for what the hell was Adam Oates doing?

Washington: lots of penalty-killing time, mostly at center, easier zone start, 4th line even strength minutes with the offensively challenged. AND 100 minutes where he was gifted with ridiculous talent for which there is no evidence he was worthy. God that’s weird.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

  • Winner: Craig MacTavish, if Scrivens wins the starting job and he can sign the goalie.
  • Winner: Los Angeles, they got a pick inside the top 70 for a guy who was moving down the depth chart.
  • Winner: Dubnyk, fresh start.
  • Winner: Nashville, offloaded a bad contract and take a chance on a good goalie stuck in a bad spot.
  • Loser: Craig MacTavish, the Nashville deal was bad no matter how you look at it. Standing pat would have been a better plan.
  • Loser: Oiler pro scouts, they appear to be picking from the Belanger tree again.
  • Loser: Matt Hendricks, there’s every chance he’ll regret this trade by the time he’s done this contract.
  • Loser: Daryl Katz, who has another potential buyout contract on the books.
  • Loser: Oilers analytics department. I assume they’re stuffed in a trunk somewhere. Hope they’re getting air.
  • Loser: Anton Lander. Jesus, Mary and Joseph.

 

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136 Responses to "ANALYZING THE DAY"

  1. Genjutsu says:

    I’m not as certain as you are that he’ll be a full time 4C.

    I think they’ll use him in a mixed bag role with ton of PK time and the occasional face punching.

    We’ll see him at all three spots on the forth line.

  2. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Good day overall DD wasn’t going to be a backup after this year and the oil needed to see this guy play for them before signing him or some one else. Trade A was only made so trade B could take place and keeps us with 2 goalies and keeps us a player friendly Organization for letting DD move on with his career. Plus we still have 2 non counting buyouts left I believe and if Hendricks does fill 4th line Center for a couple years it gives lander more time in the AHL. Besides We aren’t supposed to be giving jobs to rookies, they should have to force trades like this just like LAs goalies did, right?

  3. TheOtherJohn says:

    Agree completely LT

  4. sumaclab says:

    The numbers currently are awful for MH. Wait and see what he brings to the table and then we’ll see. A compliment to Gazdic would be ideal. Smyth at center is a no go as far as I am concerned. I don’t think Gagner is traded till the off season. The season is a wash. Why trade him at such a low value? No rush. We are not going anywhere in the standing. Are we?

    Overall a good day. The goal DD let in from the blueline against Philly was the straw for me. After that I was done with him. To slack on the easy shots when he needed to be more focused.

  5. OilClog says:

    Hendricks is a plug, who cares

    Dubnyk wasn’t getting Edmonton anything in return, who cares. He played himself into this position, bad breaks, what have you. There was no value there. Hendricks can be moved if Mike Brown can be moved lol.

    If Scrivens turns around and does a Bishop with a different team for a 3rd pick and the cost equivalent of Dubnyk.. Pitchforks would be out for MacT’s head. I’ll wait to see how it all plays out as it’s not going to get any worse.

    This isn’t Tambi sitting on his hands, it’s much better movement then previous years. Actual effort. This isn’t the Belanger triangle no one expects the puck to go in the net with Hendricks on the ice. Either way. He hits, fights, kills penalties. On better teams then the Oilers.

    I say MacT has injected some much needed new blood and put a few other players on notice.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    So MacT is really hard to follow. He starts the year trying to get an upgrade in net. When that fails he brings in Labarbara who was known to be a terrible goalie by anyone that has watched him play in the past. When Dubnyk falters to start the season because of equipment change and a new baby no one can help out. Then he brings in Bryz at the cost of an actual NHL defenseman (had to move Smid to clear out cap space). When it becomes clear that Bryz is not the solution and Dubnyk starts playing better he gets moved for a terrible contract that lasts for another 3 years when all you had to do is waive him or wait out another 1/2 season. Instead he brings in a player type, Belanger Black Triangle type, that he himself has criticized not to long ago saying that you have to be at least a threat to score on the ice. He then acquires a young goalie for a draft pick, which I don’t mind, but I don’t think he is as good as the guy he is replacing, at least not right now. And he has the same problem of soft goals. Will see how long his confidence remains playing in front of this defense, cause the Dominator in his prime could not put up good numbers with this team in front of him.

  7. denny33 says:

    Very good summary LT….

  8. Spydyr says:

    “Loser: Oiler his pro scouts, they appear to be picking from the Belanger tree again.”

    Love it.

  9. leadfarmer says:

    OilClog,

    2 mil for a plug is a lot of money. Plus other players use that for contract negotiations. Try to sign someone for less money than your plug player who is a 4th liner and puts up 6 pts. Agents use that kind of stuff.

  10. Nostradumbass says:

    Just so much cascading of errors

    Do you need to have Scivens on your team in order to sign him next year?? Will give the Oilers that much more insight?

    Cause the price for taking a close look at him was a terrible contract and a top 70 pick

    Katz has to be getting tired of this

  11. Lowetide says:

    Nostradumbass:
    Just so much cascading of errors

    Do you need to have Scivens on your team in order to sign him next year?? Will give the Oilers that much more insight?

    Cause the price for taking a close look at him was a terrible contract and a top 70 pick

    Katz has to be getting tired of this

    I’m fine with the third round pick. We’ve had this conversation for years on this blog, and we have to factor in the possibility that the player wouldn’t sign here as a free agent. Bring him in, see how he plays, and if you can ‘t sign him trade Scrivens at the deadline.

  12. BONVIE says:

    Nostradumbass,

    Word…why would a 29th place team ever be trading the future for UFAs and washed up overpaid 13th forwards.

  13. Nuckout says:

    You HAVE to consider this all as one big trade. The Scrivens trade would not have happened without Dubnyk going away, and there wasn’t much of a return coming either way for Dubs. To make the deal with LA happen, they had to offload Dubey quick. There was really no other way. We get slightly bigger and meaner in the bottom 6, the Dubey equation has been solved, and we get a goalie who has a real shot at becoming a long term #1 solution.

    Realistically, what could have made the day better? Maybe a pick from Nashville thrown in there, but such is life. The ONLY down side I see is giving up a 3rd round. I always get a little chill inside when I’m reminded of the Datsyuk’s of drafts gone by. You never really know what you’re giving up.

    If anyone can give me any other realistic option that would have made more sense than what happened today, I will eat my left sock. The trades today were not sexy by a long shot, but the outcome is still positive, IMO.

    I’ve always wanted to see Scrivs in the Oiler system ever since he was with the SG Saints. Also, I’ve been calling Scrivens to the Oilers for about a year and a half. No big deal.

  14. Crooked says:

    Lots of positive stuff said about him in this article from the Washington Times, before Hendricks went into free agency: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/capitals-watch/2013/may/20/capitals-love-matt-hendricks-how-much/

    His numbers may not be flattering, but his teammates, and Caps management seem to love the guy, and what he brings.

  15. BONVIE says:

    Lowetide,
    Yeah they wasted 3 and 4 picks last year and felt compelled at the draft to recoup those depth picks using a high draft pick!!

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Here’s MacT on Hendricks:

    On adding Matt Hendricks:

    “Matt Hendricks has a lot of leadership ability and we need more veteran presence really highlighted by how Andrew Ference has been for our hockey club as well as Boyd Gordon and now we add another guy that has really good leadership and compete level.

    “He’s a good penalty killer. He takes face-offs during the penalty kill. He’s an excellent face-off guy. He can play up your lineup. He can play on your third line and definitely can play on your fourth line. He’s been playing right wing in Nashivllle. Our pro scouts have had an eye on him for quite some time.

    I’ve high-lighted that last sentence.

    This is bad advice. Very, very bad advice.

    With any luck, MacT is going to feel the burn of this decision shortly, reflect back on what Gare and Semenko offered up for Tambo and fire those fucking guys!

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blog.htm?id=23&navid=DL|EDM|home

    ps. let’s not forget MacT went out of his way to lay credit with “our analytics guys” for the Perron trade. Fuck those guys too for not breaking Gare’s ankle on the way into the meeting and shoving some easy to read analysis in MacT’s hand.

    These guys probably need to be a lot more assertive.

  17. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Some goalies only play well behind a structured team. Predictability of the plays in front of him. Some goalies it doesn’t matter. Most of the best goalie UFAs are on good teams. We need to know his wowy with our team. ;)

  18. Woodguy says:

    So MacT added a guy to the 4th line, who on his best night would be a non-factor.

    He’s at the age where physical forwards have their play fall of the face of the earth and he’s here for 3 more years.

    The Oilers are kings of long term deals for bottom of the roster guys.

    Bleh.

    I like his 4v5 SA/60. Historically good, and good again this year.

    He’s running 41.5/60 SA 4v5, 2nd best on NSH among PK regulars.

    He had a 46/60 last year on WSH, best among PK regulars.\

    Gordon is the best Oiler regular is year with 47/60

    Lander, when he was here put in 1.97 TOI/60, in 10 games, so would qualify as a “regular” in the games he played. He posted a team best 38.5/60

    I really don’t see Hendricks being an upgrade on Lander in that department.

    Hopefully Eakins takes RNH off the PK, or at least moves him to PK3 so he can be better rested for 5v5 when they really need him.

    RNH is running at a dismal 60/60. So he’s not effective and its not good to wear the young man down in 4v5 when they need him badly 5v5.

    I like the Scrivens bet. Its always much, much easier to extend players who are currently under contract than grab them in the summer.

    It would be funny if MacT grabs Reimer next.

    Same duo that got an awful TOR team to the playoffs last year.

    I think there is 0% chance that Bryz is here next year.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Now, I want to try on a theory: this is all Ricky-O’s fault.

    If we look at the Dubnyk trade in light of the Smid trade, something is illuminated.

    Both occurred in tandem with other deals that appear to be more than simply coincidence.

    In the Smid trade, we had official verbal that the team felt they needed to deal him to sign Bryz. We know this isn’t the case, even on the most skeptical reading of the bonus filled cap.

    In the Dubnyk trade, we can surmise the team felt the need to make space for Scrivens. We know this isn’t the case on either a cap or 50-man roster level. But, that doesn’t mean the team didn’t feel pressure to create roster and cap space for Scrivens. So far this year they’ve shown extraordinary concern over the cap (they seem really freaked out by the bonuses).

    I wonder if a part (too big of one) of these trades is simply non-hockey related, i.e., the team is feeling a lot of CBA pressure in how they are managing the team.

    Maybe Ricky-O is a really panicky little dude that has everyone over concerned about these things?

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Now, here’s a real 4th line Center… who apparently someone on the Oilers was interested in at one time… why not chase this guy?

    http://www.extraskater.com/player/63/zack-smith

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: It would be funny if MacT grabs Reimer next.
    Same duo that got an awful TOR team to the playoffs last year.
    I think there is 0% chance that Bryz is here next year.

    I’ve been giggling about this all day. Can’t wait to rib my brothers in law (leaves fans both)

    ———-
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474059

    Omark scratched. at 9 BUF games. 6 shy of that 6th rounder.

  22. Woodguy says:

    I think Tyler nails it here:

    There are Hendricks’ available for very little every summer who don’t need four year deals at $1.85MM. The Oilers just ate a ton of risk that Hendricks won’t be able to play in the NHL in a year or two for no apparent reason.

    Good take: http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6570

  23. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Now, here’s a real 4th line Center… who apparently someone on the Oilers was interested in at one time… why not chase this guy?

    http://www.extraskater.com/player/63/zack-smith

    Zack Smith is 4th on OTT in 5v5 TOI/gm and is 3rd in faceoffs taken behind Turris and Spezza.

    I don’t think he’s a 4C anymore.

  24. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Now, here’s a real 4th line Center… who apparently someone on the Oilers was interested in at one time… why not chase this guy?

    http://www.extraskater.com/player/63/zack-smith

    Yeah, his most common line mates are Neil and Greening and the next forward isn’t close in TOI as those two.

    He’s 3C this year for sure.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Yeah, his most common line mates are Neil and Greening and the next forward isn’t close in TOI as those two.

    He’s 3C this year for sure.

    Well… a 4th line C that can play up the roster, is on a friendly cap hit and is young… sounds better… that could be Lander for fuck’s sake.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Whether Hendricks fits that mould or will prove a disappointment, as the likes of Eric Belanger, Ben Eager, Jared Smithson and Andy Sutton were in the past couple of years, remains to be seen.

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/MacKinnon+Oilers+newest+additions+team/9391927/story.html

    Is that the party line (media and maybe within the organization) of Sutton?

    The injury/retirement surely ended things… but he was a real surprise to this viewer and his underlying numbers seen him good:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=EDM&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

    and I would have thought the pencil pushers would love his suspensions and grit…

    am I missing something? was Sutton considered a disappointment somehow? Or, is this some weird re-write?

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    Button’s Latest!!!

    Fuck I love this guy.

    He is determined to keep Draisaitl out of public office. He’s basically running a smear campaign now.

  28. fifthcartel says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Sutton’s occasional hilarious dangles made up for whatever he did wrong when he was here.

  29. VanOil says:

    After some early season rookie coach lunacy I feel the Oilers PK has really come on of late. Goal tending so distorts the stats in this area it is hard to tell, plus Nultz PKs for us. Even so I would not of considered it one of the Oilers primary needs.

    My favorite PK pair has been Nuge & Arco. I am reasonably sure that Hendricks & Jones will not inspire me as much. Smythy & Gordon have the OLD reliable portion sorted. I could see an Old slow footed Hendricks leading to more Penalty minutes so it is probably good he can PK.

  30. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: He is determined to keep Draisaitl out of public office. He’s basically running a smear campaign now.

    LOL. 11th, eh? Booo-utton’s always marched to the beat of his own drummer draft-wise, said drummer banging drum with one hand and snorting copious amounts of crystal meth with the other … he worked for the Flames once, what sanity would be left?

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think I would rather have Petrell back on one of those absurdly cheap 1 year deals.

    He fought, PKed really damn well, I think he even played center for a game.

    Also, I was fond of him.

  32. bill needle says:

    The Oilers were never making the playoffs with Dubnyk, nor will anyone else, so getting rid of him is great news. The AHL is full of goalies that can match Dubnyk’s replacement level.
    Scrivens vs. Bryzgalov the rest of the year and maybe one of them earns a contract.
    Hendricks is overpaid but it ain’t my money.

  33. nycoil says:

    Very good summary, LT.
    I am baffled by the Nashville trade. Baffled. I understand not wanting the 3-headed goalie monster, but there had to be a way to move Dubnyk for something else? Even a pick would have been preferable to this if the team is eating half the salary left, honestly. The team spends a first rounder on Dubnyk in 2004, painfully lets him develop through us for nearly a decade, then eat half his salary and take on a boat anchor contract for the 4th line in his place? I get that DD was a free agent and wouldn’t be coming back, and that we needed the room for Scrivens; however, just feels like we’ve taken on a liability with multiple years left at almost $2M per for the sake of it.

    “Good character” pickups are the reason why we had Mike Brown and SMac on the roster at the same time. I prefer a “bad character” who rubs everyone the wrong way, just as long as he can play. The stats above show Hendricks can’t really play.

    Baffled at this.

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BUF takes TOR to OT. there’s a point. minimum.

  35. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    BUF takes TOR to OT. there’s a point. minimum.

    I watched buf the other day. They’re bad but they don’t look Oilers bad.

  36. Derek says:

    Nuckout:
    You HAVE to consider this all as one big trade. The Scrivens trade would not have happened without Dubnyk going away, and there wasn’t much of a return coming either way for Dubs. To make the deal with LA happen, they had to offload Dubey quick. There was really no other way. We get slightly bigger and meaner in the bottom 6, the Dubey equation has been solved, and we get a goalie who has a real shot at becoming a long term #1 solution.

    Realistically, what could have made the day better? Maybe a pick from Nashville thrown in there, but such is life. The ONLY down side I see is giving up a 3rd round. I always get a little chill inside when I’m reminded of the Datsyuk’s of drafts gone by. You never really know what you’re giving up.

    If anyone can give me any other realistic option that would have made more sense than what happened today, I will eat my left sock. The trades today were not sexy by a long shot, but the outcome is still positive, IMO.

    I’ve always wanted to see Scrivs in the Oiler system ever since he was with the SG Saints. Also, I’ve been calling Scrivens to the Oilers for about a year and a half. No big deal.

    I’d like to know exactly why Dubnyk had to be moved to bring Scrivens in. They had the cap space and are under the 50 contract limit.

    Is it a question of having 3 goalies on the active roster? It’d be a shame to make one of our sub .900 NHL goaltenders uncomfortable with the arrival of a competent replacement! Send one to the minors.

  37. bill needle says:

    You have to trade Dubnyk or else you feel like you have to play him, and then you lose.

  38. stevezie says:

    Derek,

    3 goalies just does not work very well. We have tested this plan enough times. It was not a good plan.

    If Hendricks is good enough to improve the 4th line, as some claim, then he is worth the money. All MacT is doing is using Katz’ money to get an advantage.

    If Hendricks is no better than Lander then, obviously, this trade sucks.

    I know I’m stating the obvious, but I’m a confused by how many people are stating their opinions on Hendricks like they’re facts when most of us having never played attention to him playing.

    Stats suggest MacT could have done much better. I wouldn’t have done it if I were him, I will say that. I’ll give the guy a chance to play before I write anything in ink. Maybe that’s wishy-washy, but there it is.

  39. ohhell says:

    There seems to be a whole lot of angst on the chatter-board today. Not sure what the big deal is; perhaps the pented frustration of OIlernation surfacing. I think it is pointless to evaluate the two deals individually. Both deals should be evaluated as one collective.

    The way I see it, MacT lacked confidence in Dubnyk going forward so he acquired the opportunity to sign Scrivens to a deal before UFA. In fact, he has an opportunity to evaluate him first and sign if interested. He also has the opportunity to trade him at the deadline if a signing is not possible. MacT thought the gamble was worth it.

    Regarding Dubnyk vs. Scrivens, the underlying numbers favour Scrivens going all the way back to their teen years. Scrivens has consitently posted the better numbers. Is he better? I have no idea. But MacT thinks it is worth a shot and I agree.

    Regarding the Dubnyk trade, MacT had to decide if he would throw Duby to the waiver wire or try and get something. Some feel that Hendricks has negative value and that we would have been better exposing Duby to the wire. I disagree. I think they are looking for players that can PK and have some grit. Hendricks may not be the answer and the cap may be too high and it may cause us future cap regret, but MacT felt $900k of oppurtunity cost was worth it. I am fine with that.

    Lastly, I expect that the Scivens deal came together quickly and that there may have been other suitors so MacT had a limited window to deal Dubnyk. I expect that MacT wanted Duby gone before the Scrivens deal to pave the way for Ben (this is your job if you want it). I am pleased with the moves and hope that Scrivens pans out and can be signed.

    Worst case, he underperforms, doesn’t sign, can’t be moved at the deadline and we minus a 3rd round pick and stuck with a potentially bad (but not huge) contract. That mirrors our current situation with Dubnyk.

    Best case, he performs well and signs on or becomes a deadline asset for us – possibly returning a second round pick. And maybe Hendricks finds a role here… (frowny face)

  40. Derek says:

    stevezie:
    Derek,

    3 goalies just does not work very well. We have tested this plan enough times. It was not a good plan.

    If Hendricks is good enough to improve the 4th line, as some claim, then he is worth the money. All MacT is doing is using Katz’ money to get an advantage.

    If Hendricks is no better than Lander then, obviously, this trade sucks.

    I know I’m stating the obvious, but I’m a confused by how many people are stating their opinions on Hendricks like they’re facts when most of us having never played attention to him playing.

    Stats suggest MacT could have done much better. I wouldn’t have done it if I were him, I will say that. I’ll give the guy a chance to play before I write anything in ink. Maybe that’s wishy-washy, but there it is.

    Then waive one. Using up finite cap space to get rid of a player is idiocy.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    stevezie: 3 goalies just does not work very well. We have tested this plan enough times. It was not a good plan.

    You can take that idea for a long walk around the block, make out with it behind the burnt-out bleachers from that time in 1993 when the local kids burned it down playing with fireworks, buy an ice-cream sandwich for it, throw it in the garbage, because Winter, introduce it to every neighbor you hate (all of them)… … …

    … and still not have found enough time to let that idea justify making a stupid decision.

  42. nycoil says:

    Does this mean that when MacT was talking about Quick and what he did for LA he was thinking Scrivens all along?

  43. Nuckout says:

    Derek,

    There’s also the human element here as well. MacT’s not bringing in Scrivens to play in OKC, he’s here to compete for #1. At the very least he’s not making Dubs hang around and be the goat until he finds the perfect trade, or risk losing him to waivers. Like I said, how much better is the return for Devan going to get, really?

  44. Thinker says:

    I couldn’t have put it better than this man.
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/1/15/5313438/burn-it-down

    The future looks pretty damn grim to me. This is how i feel (not for the feint of heart) . http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QScDSAoXlNs

  45. delooper says:

    The 100 minutes with Ovechkin was probably accumulated moments of double-shifting the Russian.

  46. Lowetide says:

    delooper:
    The 100 minutes with Ovechkin was probably accumulated moments of double-shifting the Russian.

    AND Ribiero? That’s a lot of ice time.

  47. Young Oil says:

    Even if you combine the two trades into one, IMO Hendricks has one of the worst contracts in the NHL. While it isn’t difficult to buy out, that is an insane term and dollar amount for a player who is barely serviceable as a 4th liner, and on the decline. I’m a huge MacT fan, and I was appalled by the trade. Especially considering we kept half of Dubnyk’s cap hit, got a worse player than the ones we have, which is saying something, and didn’t get a single draft pick out of it. Hendricks prevents players like Lander from coming up and developing in the NHL, discourages resigning Arco, and also somewhat prevents signing a player like Brian Boyle, who is superior to Hendricks in every single way, at the same price. Why not sign an identical 4th line center for 1 year at half the price, or claim one off of waivers? Honest to God, I can’t think of a player/contract I’d want less than Hendricks.

  48. Nuckout says:

    ohhell,

    Thank you. Another voice of level headed reason.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: AND Ribiero? That’s a lot of ice time.

    Renney put Petrell with 93 and 4 for a game or two didn’t he?

    He was a pretty smart guy. Oates is a pretty smart guy. He broke down that whole off-side D thing that MC79 pointed at in the Summer (IIRC Ference was the culprit).

    Sometimes smart guys do stupid things.

    What’s weird though… is the sheer duration of stupid… mind boggling.

  50. Pouzar says:

    fwiw, listening to Dreger on TSN1290 during the ride home today and he thought Oilers would “Aim Higher” than Scrivens in the offseason. Struck me as weird as he doesn’t really offer up a whole lot during these types of radio interviews.

  51. VanOil says:

    “Don’t look now, but suddenly Luke Gazdic and Matt Hendricks are two-thirds of a line that nobody in the NHL really wants to play against.” Robert Tychkowski of the Sun

    Really Really don’t look if you think shots on goal have any effect on winning hockey games. Two of the worst CF% players in league are about to pair up. Good thing they will have Jones there with them on the straight and narrow. I am sure little Patrick Kane is thanking his lucky stars he will not have to play against this line with no more games against EDM this year. Good thing he will have 3 more years to light them up for kicks.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Renney put Petrell with 93 and 4 for a game or two didn’t he?

    He was a pretty smart guy. Oates is a pretty smart guy. He broke down that whole off-side D thing that MC79 pointed at in the Summer (IIRC Ference was the culprit).

    Sometimes smart guys do stupid things.

    What’s weird though… is the sheer duration of stupid… mind boggling.

    Well it’s 5×5 too, that’s what I don’t understand. It must have been one of those ideas someone has and then runs with for a few weeks before shelving.

  53. G Money says:

    VanOil,

    Huh. Think it’s a typo maybe?

    “… are two-thirds of a line that everybody in the NHL really wants to play against.”

    or

    “… are two-thirds of a line that nobody in the NHL really wants to play on.”

    or

    “… are two-thirds of a line that nobody in the NHL really wants to box against.”

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think we can acknowledge that Dubnyk had little value on the market and still acknowledge a couple of things:

    1) they could have just let him walk

    2) they could have played him like a #1, hoped he would rebound some and sold high(er) at the deadline

    3) they probably could have gotten a late round pick now (4-5 rounder)

    4) they could have waived him

    5) if he wasn’t picked up, they could have buried him in the minors

    6) they could have bought him out

    7) they probably could have traded him for a better low rent, short deal, roster player

    all of these are better options than Hendricks. They probably evaluated all these options. They’ve been thinking about moving Dubnyk since MacT took over. They’ve thought about it a lot. They’ve probably talked to a lot of teams about it.

    They chose Hendricks. Nothing — not the cap, not the 50 man, not Scrivens, nothing — compelled them to choose Hendricks.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    This isn’t a Larsen situation, where they took back a player to simply get rid of a player. They could have got rid of Dubnyk at any time, or simply let him walk at the end of the season.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    This is the dangerous realization. This is the problem.

    They wanted Hendricks.

  55. Big Dan says:

    I’m going to enjoy watching people change their minds on Hendricks in a hurry. He’s going to be a fan favorite. Perfect role player. MacT didn’t eat a bad contract in order to get rid of Dubnyk (who had negative value). He WANTED Hendricks last summer – you’ll see why. He won’t be bought out. He’s tough, he can win faceoffs, he can kill penalties, he’s experienced= you’ll see why the Capitals valued him so much. The Oilers badly need guys like that.

    It seems strange to deal a 3rd rounder for the right to negotiate with a career backup. Aim higher? Would any of Anderson, Miller, Halak, Hiller sign with this Mickey Mouse organization? Not unless it was for insane dollars.

    MacT alluded to stop gaps the other day. Scrivens may be our #1 or #1A for a year or two until either we are close to making the playoffs (sigh, patience) and deal for a hired gun… or Laurent Broissoit is ready. Broissoit will be WAY better than Devan Dubnyk. I remember watching Martin Jones as a Calgary Hitman and thinking he was going to be great. Watching Broissoit, I see the same fundamentals and confidence.

    Nice to see some new blood into the team, rather than talking about another embarrassing loss. Will be interesting to see how Scrivens pans out. MacT gets two thumbs up from me today.

  56. Lowetide says:

    Rom: Yes. Exactly. This is the solution to the center problem (4line), meaning Lander is out and Arco is either utility/extra or 2line. either way, I don’t like the move.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Well it’s 5×5 too, that’s what I don’t understand. It must have been one of those ideas someone has and then runs with for a few weeks before shelving.

    Yea. It looks like it was about two games worth of the kids for Petrell 5×5:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1538&withagainst=true&season=2011-12&sit=5v5

    Did the Caps of Hendricks’ time not have a more viable “crap, we need some beef in the line up” option at the time…

    maybe two things converged: injury to the heavies and Oates had a “beef-up the top end” freak out?

  58. Young Oil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I think we can acknowledge that Dubnyk had little value on the market and still acknowledge a couple of things:

    1) they could have just let him walk

    2) they could have played him like a #1, hoped he rebounded some and sold high(er) at the deadline

    3) they probably could have gotten a late round pick now (4-5 rounder)

    4) they could have waived him

    5) if he wasn’t pick up, they could have buried him in the minors

    6) they could have bought him out

    7) they probably could have traded him for a better low rent, short deal, roster player

    all of these are better options than Hendricks. They probably evaluated all these options. They’ve been thinking about moving Dubnyk since MacT took over. They’ve thought about it a lot. They’ve probably talked to a lot of teams about it.

    They chose Hendricks. Nothing — not the cap, not the 50 man, not Scrivens, nothing — compelled them to choose Hendricks.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    This isn’t a Larsen situation, where they took back a player to simply get rid of a player. They could have got rid of Dubnyk at any time, or simply let him walk at the end of the season.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    This is the dangerous realization. This is the problem.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    This sums it up perfectly. I really wonder which of MacT and the pro scouts were the drivers behind this deal.

    I’d mention Lowe as well, but that would just be crazy to suggest…..right?

  59. Gordies Elbow says:

    A lot of angst today. Interesting comparo, though, is the projected starting lineup from last year, and current roster:

    Horcoff == Gordon
    Hartikainen == Arcobello
    Hordichuck == Gazdic
    Belanger == Hendricks
    Paajarvi == Peron
    Smid == Marincin
    Whitney == Belov
    Sutton == Larsen
    Peckham == Ference
    Dubnyk == Bryzgalof
    Khabibulin == Scrivens

    Plus they’ve added Joensuu. Better team? Dunno, but the number of changes is encouraging. That, combined with keeping Hall, Hopkins, Eberle, Yakupov, J. Schultz, Petry, etc. is encouraging. LT, perhaps a mid-year projected roster posting? Might be enlightening.

  60. FTO says:

    Heya fellas, I am tuned into the top prospects game but the sound on my t.v. is messed. Can anyone tell me what MacT said during the intermission?

  61. VanOil says:

    G Money:
    VanOil,

    Huh.Think it’s a typo maybe?

    “… are two-thirds of a line that everybody in the NHL really wants to play against.”

    or

    “… are two-thirds of a line that nobody in the NHL really wants to play on.”

    or

    “… are two-thirds of a line that nobody in the NHL really wants to box against.”

    Agreed. I am sure it will be corrected for the print addition!

  62. 8p0intgame says:

    The next steps…

    1.) Trade RW Hemsky to a contender at the deadline for a 1st round pick.
    2.) Trade C Gagner and the 1st round pick acquired in the Hemsky trade (plus picks and prospects as needed) at the draft for RD Byfuglien.
    3.) Resign C Acrobello (1.3 million x 2 years).
    4.) Resign LD Belov (2 million x 2 years)
    5.) Resign RD Petry and RD J. Schultz (3 million x 4 years).
    6.) Resign LW Smyth (1 million x 1 year)
    7.) Resign G Bryzgalov (3 million x 2 years)
    8.) Resign G Scrivens (3 million x 4 years)
    9.) Sign LD Andrew MacDonald (4 million x 6 years).
    10.) Sign LW Daniel Winnik (3 million x 4 years).
    11.) Sign RW Nikolai Kulemin (3.5 million x 4 years).
    12.) Sign C Marcel Goc (2 million x 3 years)

    2014-15 Lineup:

    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Acrobello-Perron-Yakupov
    Gordon-Winnik-Kulemin
    Goc-Smyth-Hendricks

    MacDonald-Byfuglien
    Belov-Petry
    Ference-J. Schultz

    Scrivens
    Bryzgalov

    Cap Hit:

    6-6-6 (18 million)
    1.3-3.8125-3.775 (8.8875 million)
    3-3-3.5 (9.5 million)
    2-1-1.85 (4.85 million)

    Forward total – 41.2375 million

    4-5.2 (9.2 million)
    2-3 (5 million)
    3.25-3 (6.25 million)

    Defense total – 20.45 million

    3
    3

    Goalie total – 6 million

    Overall total – 67.6875 million
    Cap space = 3.4125 million

    Thoughts?

  63. delooper says:

    FTO:
    Heya fellas, I am tuned into the top prospects game but the sound on my t.v. is messed. Can anyone tell me what MacT said during the intermission?

    He talked about his fondness for XKCD comics. And x-men movies.

  64. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Rom: Yes. Exactly. This is the solution to the center problem (4line), meaning Lander is out and Arco is either utility/extra or 2line. either way, I don’t like the move.

    MacT’s verbal in the Summer about Arco getting a shot and not appreciating Tambo not giving him one last year… is reason to hope in his case.

    Lander… I just hope he realizes the windfall for him. A smart team like Detroit or Ottawa will pick him up for a song and in 3 years he’ll be exactly what everyone wants. I’ll be cheering for him. Really like the player, that hilarious jutty jaw.

    ———
    So… here’s something… next year Nelson is coaching somewhere in the NHL, he convinces the GM to take a long look at Lander.

    We got Acton, they (whoever they are) get Lander.

    After Eakins, I’m guessing this happens fairly often.

  65. HiddenDarts says:

    8p0intgame,

    I like that reality.

    The actual one? Kinda sucks.

  66. art vandelay says:

    What’s the record for longest-running sitcom, anyway?

  67. Lowetide says:

    FTO:
    Heya fellas, I am tuned into the top prospects game but the sound on my t.v. is messed. Can anyone tell me what MacT said during the intermission?

    He talked about the temptation to trade the top pick, but that where the club currently sits the quality of player is so good. Then they talked about being patient and he kind of game the same answer, as in, the player is so good at that spot.

    So, my guess is a center or a defenseman if they pick 1-2, and that player comes right to the show.

  68. delooper says:

    art vandelay:
    What’s the record for longest-running sitcom, anyway?

    Has to be The Simpsons, 1989 until today.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    Like that MacT is shuffling deck chairs and only fucking up the budget instead of shedding any of the allegedly problem children; Eberle, Yaks, Gagner(considering everything witnessed this season I give him another training camp…FUCK! then remember MacT’s stupidly giving him a ntc…

    Great to see Dubnyk go I’m in no mood to be rational just seeing him gone is fine, then read about Hendrix who’s got a Belanger look about him, then remember MacT who signed the exact same type of player earlier…

    I’ve got this theory that MacT as an alike is prone to make the same moves over and over. Serotonin deficit or something. Dubya Jr. had the exact same flaw and look where that got America.

  70. Hammers says:

    Then lets wait and see how Eakins uses Hendricks . For gods sake Nashville isn’t Washington and character players can fit . If he plays 7-10 minutes , pk , hits , fights wins face offs . people lets see .Scrivens plays 4 of the next 5 if I know Eakins . This bunch always complains before the players get in a game .

  71. delooper says:

    With the Smid trade the Oilers have a Smith deficit. They’ve only got Ryan in the system. They need a young or mid-career Smith.

  72. VanOil says:

    art vandelay:
    What’s the record for longest-running sitcom, anyway?

    Is it a cartoon that as far as anybody can tell stopped being funny years ago?

  73. FTO says:

    Lowetide: He talked about the temptation to trade the top pick, but that where the club currently sits the quality of player is so good. Then they talked about being patient and he kind of game the same answer, as in, the player is so good at that spot.

    So, my guess is a center or a defenseman if they pick 1-2, and that player comes right to the show.

    Thanks man I was kinda expecting that, you think we would actually keep Ekblad up if we grabbed him? I’m sure we’d keep one of those centers up for sure tho

  74. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is the dangerous realization. This is the problem.
    They wanted Hendricks.

    Seems clear.

    It may very well be nothing more than a case of desperation and the “seen him goods” overriding common sense and the stats nerds…

    Check back on the stats of that Preds game back in Nov, where the Oilers dominated from start to finish and won 3-0. Check where Hendricks is on the Corsi chart. Hint: at the top, at 70%. And two hits in 10 min of ice time. I don’t remember, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Hendricks spent the game taking a run at our youngsters.

    And MacT probably thought “Damn. *That’s* the guy we need.”

    And here we are a few months later, and not only is Hendricks now an Oiler, but MacT may very well be chuckling inside about how he pulled a fast one on Poile.

    Shortly thereafter, Dubnyk will suddenly look like a Rinne clone, while Hendricks looks like a Belanger clone, and Oilers fans think, “Well, here we go again…”

  75. Lowetide says:

    FTO: Thanks man I was kinda expecting that, you think we would actually keep Ekblad up if we grabbed him? I’m sure we’d keep one of those centers up for sure tho

    I think it’s quite possible.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: So, my guess is a center or a defenseman if they pick 1-2, and that player comes right to the show.

    That’s the worst.

    Ekblad or Draisaitl need to be kept miles and miles from EDM the second after they are picked.

    For their own good, someone should take the keys away from the Oil on either of those players until at bare minimum Summer 2015

  77. hunter1909 says:

    VanOil: Is it a cartoon that as far as anybody can tell stopped being funny years ago?

    That reminds me of how South Park went all wordy around the time of their single joke Captain America movie, and instantly went from funny to – sentimentality.

    It’s called ‘jumping the shark’ and is something anyone working seriously in any creative field, dreads like the Grim Reaper.

  78. gogliano says:

    So are the Dys officially outside their cup window? Haven’t really been paying attention but I just looked at some of the numbers and it’s hard to believe they are still the same team that racked up all those cups. I guess the Cali teams are beating up on the division…

  79. gogliano says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s the worst.

    Ekblad or Draisaitl need to be kept miles and miles from EDM the second after they are picked.

    For their own good, someone should take the keys away from the Oil on either of those players until at bare minimum Summer 2015

    Maybe see if we can loan him to Detroit for the first 4 years of his career.

  80. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s quite possible.

    Ekblad~Nurse may as well be our top pair next year. What possibly could go worng?

  81. hunter1909 says:

    I don’t know who they’re going to draft, but I like Nurse being kept far away from Northland’s Perpetual Matrix of Suck.

  82. Thinker says:

    I think we have to start a campaign to all this idiocy.” Everyone must go.” “Shoot em all and let God sort em out.” “The final solution to the oilers problem”
    I liked Eakins and MacT at the start of the season, but they’ve really tried to make a case that they are retarded. Problem is MacT also does one good deal for every god awful one. Smid-perron Acton-gordon dubnyk-scrivens. Only way I see us coming back from the brink is if we clean house from the ivory towers down to the dressing room doors. Bring in new people and perspectives to evaluate our players, and sort through the rubbish.

  83. delooper says:

    Okay, we’ve covered the longest-running sitcom. What’s everyone’s favourite Gulnara Karimova music video?

  84. hunter1909 says:

    delooper:
    Okay, we’ve covered the longest-running sitcom.What’s everyone’s favourite Gulnara Karimova music video?

    I was hoping Bruce could start teaching everyone about astronomy.

  85. FTO says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s the worst.

    Ekblad or Draisaitl need to be kept miles and miles from EDM the second after they are picked.

    For their own good, someone should take the keys away from the Oil on either of those players until at bare minimum Summer 2015

    Completely agree, especially Ekblad considering he’s a D. As if they send down the 2nd or 3rd overall pick thogh.

  86. gr8one says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I think we can acknowledge that Dubnyk had little value on the market and still acknowledge a couple of things:

    1) they could have just let him walk

    2) they could have played him like a #1, hoped he would rebound some and sold high(er) at the deadline

    3) they probably could have gotten a late round pick now (4-5 rounder)

    4) they could have waived him

    5) if he wasn’t picked up, they could have buried him in the minors

    6) they could have bought him out

    7) they probably could have traded him for a better low rent, short deal, roster player

    all of these are better options than Hendricks. They probably evaluated all these options. They’ve been thinking about moving Dubnyk since MacT took over. They’ve thought about it a lot. They’ve probably talked to a lot of teams about it.

    They chose Hendricks. Nothing — not the cap, not the 50 man, not Scrivens, nothing — compelled them to choose Hendricks.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    This isn’t a Larsen situation, where they took back a player to simply get rid of a player. They could have got rid of Dubnyk at any time, or simply let him walk at the end of the season.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    This is the dangerous realization. This is the problem.

    They wanted Hendricks.

    By gawd this is an awful feeling. Just awful.

    I’ve had a lot of awful feelings over these last few years as an Oiler fan but I really can’t say I’ve ever felt more hopelessness than I do after today.

    I have been a MacT supporter but this Hendricks thing just doesn’t make sense. It runs so contrary to everything he has done, Perron>PRV, jettisoning Brown, making a reasonable bet on Belov, even Grebs you could at least see why it might be a decent bet if you squinted.

    The ONLY way that this makes any sense, is if like someone else suggested in that this was a preventative trade so Poile didn’t drive up the price to the point we couldn’t get Scrivens.

    We may not be able to underestimate the fear of duplicating losing out on Scrivens in the same way Tambellini lost out on Bishop.

    I pray to the hockey Gords this is the case, otherwise this team may be in worse hands than any of us could have ever imagined.

  87. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: AND Ribiero? That’s a lot of ice time.

    OTC special.

  88. Woodguy says:

    gogliano:
    So are the Dys officially outside their cup window?Haven’t really been paying attention but I just looked at some of the numbers and it’s hard to believe they are still the same team that racked up all those cups.I guess the Cali teams are beating up on the division…

    it’s hard to believe they are still the same team that racked up all those cups

    <3

  89. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: OTC special.

    That’s what I was thinking. Crazy man, crazy.

  90. "Steve Smith" says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: was Sutton considered a disappointment somehow?

    My immediate reaction was that the list was dealing with free agent acquisitions, and after the Oilers signed Sutton as a free agent (as distinct from trading for him), he played all of zero games, which was somewhat disappointing. But Jared Smithson puts the kai-bosh to that theory. So yeah, I’m forced to conclude that it was some kind of re-write, because Sutton was a good defenceman for the Oilers (which is probably why they re-signed him), and the trade that brought him in was an excellent move.

  91. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide: He talked about the temptation to trade the top pick, but that where the club currently sits the quality of player is so good. Then they talked about being patient and he kind of game the same answer, as in, the player is so good at that spot.

    So, my guess is a center or a defenseman if they pick 1-2, and that player comes right to the show.

    This is what matters. The long game. If/when this happens then we can open up the criticism. Picks should not play in the NHL the year after being drafted. There is no up side to this move whatsoever.

    So let’s evaluate the long game.

    If they choose Hendricks over Lander this is a bad move.
    if they keep Hendricks and the German goes back to junior this is a good move.
    If they keep both Hendricks and Lander this is a ______ move?
    If Scrivens works out and they sign him instead of doing nothing and then signing a free agent whale goalie to a Bryzgalov contract this is a franchise saving move.

    I also think that people who want to evaluate the moves in isolation are being myopic. Do you think it was a coincidence that the moves were evaluated simultaneously? For better or for worse this is a single move.

    With respect to the long game this has some downside but a) it isn’t a soul crushing Dave Nonis downside (I see you Tyler Bozak), and b) it mitigates future soul crushing risk, and c) has serious upside in Scrivens.

    Does Hendricks really have negative value? He has to for this to be a bad trade. Longterm he certainly does, but even then I can’t say I really care because I’m still happy about Scrivens.

    So I get the criticism. They need to get the Hendricks of four years ago and be ahead of the curve instead of treading water. Yet, at the same time this trade is all about Scrivens, which is precisely an attempt to be ahead of the curve.

  92. bendelson says:

    Big Dan,

    There you go again with your aggressive goaltending predictions…

    Brossoit will be WAY better then DD?

    BOLD.

    I hope you are correct Big Dan – I really do.

    Does this mean you actually liked the Smid trade?
    Blue-chip Brossoit?

  93. "Steve Smith" says:

    bendelson,

    Fuck you, Bendel-

    Okay, fine – you’re clearly correct in this instance.

  94. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hammers:
    Then lets wait and see how Eakins uses Hendricks . For gods sake Nashville isn’t Washington and character players can fit . If he plays 7-10 minutes , pk , hits , fights wins face offs . people lets see .Scrivens plays 4 of the next 5 if I know Eakins . This bunch always complains before the players get in a game .

    No one is complaining about Scrivens. No one. They are bitching about a soon to be 33 yr old, who’s numbers are trending in the wrong direction paid real freaking money to play 4L minutes. For THREE more years. If he plays 7-10 minutes , pk , hits , fights wins face offs (and that ain’t too likely) people will still say way too much $$ for way too long.

    At least now we certainly know MacT is not taking advice from his analytics guys

  95. bendelson says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    There it is…

    Appreciated as always.

  96. stevezie says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’m not sure I follow. You’re saying fear of the three goalies does not justify the Hendricks acquisition? I agree. I just reject the notion that we could have kept Dubby around; trading him for nothing was preferable to that.

    The question is whether or not Hendricks is more or less than nothing. Initially I thought he was less, but have upgraded my opinion of him to, “I don’t know.”

  97. Kitchener says:

    One reason to like today’s moves: a pattern is emerging where MacT is trying to fill the 7s, 8s and 9s slots by trying lots of low-cost moves instead of a few high-risk moves where we move out substantial assets (Yak/Ebs/Jultz/Petry/etc.)

    Praise Gord. MacT is rolling the dice with low-stakes worst-case-scenarios. He cleaned house last off-season without 100% success (exceptions: Gordon, Perron), so now he’s flushed several bad fits and is going for a second round of gambles. WIth half a season to play yet, this increases the odds of finding value without loss within 2013-2014. That’s a good plan.

    Oil fans, celebrate: we still have Eberle, Yak, and the gang. MacT is trying to balance the lineup without selling our prized assets. Yet.

  98. TheOtherJohn says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: You can take that idea for a long walk around the block, make out with it behind the burnt-out bleachers from that time in 1993 when the local kids burned it down playing with fireworks, buy an ice-cream sandwich for it, throw it in the garbage, because Winter, introduce it to every neighbor you hate (all of them)… … …

    … and still not have found enough time to let that idea justify making a stupid decision.

    THIS!!

  99. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: I think Tyler nails it here:
    There are Hendricks’ available for very little every summer who don’t need four year deals at $1.85MM. The Oilers just ate a ton of risk that Hendricks won’t be able to play in the NHL in a year or two for no apparent reason.

    54.5% FO;
    top 30 PKGA C
    40% ZS
    top 30 EVGA
    the answer is hendricks and only hendricks
    washington years more than 50% of forwards better w/ than wo/
    Every Summer?
    This Summer?

  100. Gerta Rauss says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    You know that posts like this are the bat signal for Godot10…yes..? He’ll give you his opinion shortly.

  101. Bag of Pucks says:

    Hendricks costs Katz too much for a 4th liner.

    Dubnyk cost us the 2013/14 season.

    Put that in your ‘negative value’ bong and smoke it.

  102. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Dubnyk cost us the 2013/14 season.

    I think you will find that the Oilers suck quite a bit of shit even without his lousy goaltending.

  103. Gerta Rauss says:

    The Dubnyk trade is a head scratcher…if Hendrix had 1 or 2 years on the deal I could get behind it, but 4 years??? That’s a lot of years.

    And the thing that worries me about Scrivens is that Lombardi let him go…I can picture him with his feet up on his desk and a cigar in his mouth, shouting at his assistant…”can you believe they fell for that…again!!!”

  104. delooper says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    And the thing that worries me about Scrivens is that Lombardi let him go…I can picture him with his feet up on his desk and a cigar in his mouth, shouting at his assistant…”can you believe they fell for that…again!!!”

    They’re a winning team. These kinds of resources fall into their laps all the time.

  105. stevezie says:

    Caramel Obvious: I also think that people who want to evaluate the moves in isolation are being myopic. Do you think it was a coincidence that the moves were evaluated simultaneously? For better or for worse this is a single move.

    Pretty much everything Co said was correct, but I am the most baffled that anyone could disagree with the quoted section.

  106. Gerta Rauss says:

    delooper,

    PT Barnum had something to say about that as well…

  107. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    stevezie: I’m not sure I follow. You’re saying fear of the three goalies does not justify the Hendricks acquisition? I agree. I just reject the notion that we could have kept Dubby around; trading him for nothing was preferable to that.

    Yea. Lots of other options. Taking on a boat anchor was the worst worst option.

  108. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/podcastplayer.htm?pid=98&iid=45880&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Mac T audio from the Oilers website

    -apologies if this has been posted already-4 threads today and I’ve lost track

  109. jp says:

    I’m late to the party, but nice to see some movement, even just for the sake of change. That might have been the most painful part of the Tambo years, abject failure, then bringing back the same players for some more abject failure. Might as well at least try some new failures.

    As for the actual moves, I have no problem with them. With Scrivens coming in DD had to go. You can argue that MacT could have gotten more for him, but I don’t know. Terrible year and not overly attractive for a playoff bound team due to recent (bad) performance. Also UFA in a few months, so not the ideal reclamation project. He sure wasn’t coming back to the Oilers, so it’s not a huge loss. I’ll give MacT the benefit of the doubt that he called around and there really was no interest in Dubnyk. In the bigger picture it’s sad how it all turned out, but at this point the return for Dubey was going to be disappointing regardless.

    I don’t know much about Hendricks, and the implications for Lander and Arcobello are scary. But Rom is right, they wanted this guy. The article Crooked posted is pretty compelling, though at the same time awfully similar to the stuff that was said about Brown. And this is not a pretty contract for an aging 4th liner. Hopefully MacT is better at identifying these guys than Tambo was. If nothing else Hendricks is going to bring character. MacT still has a long way to go fill the holes on this team, but maybe the ‘team’ part of it shouldn’t be overlooked. Gazdic is a limited hockey player but he’s become a valued member of the group in short order. It sounds like Hendricks will fall into that category too, and he’s not without value on the ice even if he doesn’t push the river. Let’s hope he brings something useful.

    As for Scrivens, I like the bet. No problem giving up a 3rd rounder for a guy who could be worth a whole lot more going forward. By the numbers (and the return) this guy looks like he could be another Bishop. 3 years of .930+ SV% in college, good with the Marlies, so far so good in the NHL. Maybe an opportunity is all he needs. Eakins clearly likes him (no idea how he feels about Eakins though). Presumably there’s a very good chance he’s re-signed. Even if he’s only backup quality that’s fair return for a 3rd. And if he falls flat on his face and/or walks, no big deal. I like the bet – definite chance for a big win.

    What’s next MacT? Pretty sure there’s going to be a whole lot of moves in the next 6 weeks, even if it’s mostly a fire sale of UFAs.

  110. jp says:

    Woodguy:

    I think there is 0% chance that Bryz is here next year.

    I think there’s 0% chance Bryz is here on the Ides of March.

    Kitchener:
    One reason to like today’s moves: a pattern is emerging where MacT is trying to fill the 7s, 8s and 9s slots by trying lots of low-cost moves instead of a few high-risk moves where we move out substantial assets (Yak/Ebs/Jultz/Petry/etc.)

    Praise Gord.MacT is rolling the dice with low-stakes worst-case-scenarios. He cleaned house last off-season without 100% success (exceptions: Gordon, Perron), so now he’s flushed several bad fits and is going for a second round of gambles.WIth half a season to play yet, this increases the odds of finding value without loss within 2013-2014.That’s a good plan.

    Oil fans, celebrate: we still have Eberle, Yak, and the gang.MacT is trying to balance the lineup without selling our prized assets.Yet.

    He certainly is handling a lot of dice. Surely some of the stuff he throws at the wall is going to stick.

  111. hunter1909 says:

    I think MacT did the right thing.

    He’s throwing dice all over the place, hoping for a 7, while everyone sees a pair of 1′s.

    Gives people something new to fret over.

    Eventually he’s going to bag his very own Curtis Glencross.

  112. "Steve Smith" says:

    jp: He certainly is handling a lot of dice. Surely some of the stuff he throws at the wall is going to stick.

    Are these unusually sticky dice?

  113. jp says:

    “Steve Smith”: Are these unusually sticky dice?

    Well, they have been here for quite a while.
    http://markingourterritory.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/img_4759.jpg

  114. stephen sheps says:

    Ok, so here’s a crazy question, one that will likely make me look insane or stupid (or both), but why does Hendricks’ arrival automatically mean that Lander, a 22 yr. old RFA who is captain of the farm team, automatically gone? I understand that Hendricks has term (which can be compliance-eliminated this summer), and that Lander hasn’t shown much in his time as an emergency 4C, but maybe he’s not actually a 4C. We always seem to assume that player development for Forwards is a linear process, yet D-men always take longer and Goalies “by sun-dial” as has been often said. What if Lander just needs another year or two on the farm to play top line minutes, gets better and better and then arrives as a smart, fully formed, 200 ft. game playing 2/3C at the ripe old age of 24? Detroit does things like that with their prospects, which is why they never seem to rebuild, just retool a little. That doesn’t sound unreasonable, does it? Now I know the easy response to this idea is “because Oilers”, which I completely understand, but what if that doesn’t happen? It remains a possibility that just one of the team’s prospects might develop the right way-a slim one to be sure, but a possibility nonetheless.
    In Staples’ interview, MacT said some interesting things, including a few key points about stop-gap players. Perhaps Hendricks is one of those stop-gaps. Before we immediately turn into a collective internet chicken-little, lets give the guy a couple games before we all decide he has ‘negative value.’ And lets see what happens in the off-season regarding Lander’s RFA status before we immediately pronounce him as DOA.

  115. Eastern Oil says:

    stephen sheps,

    I agree with most of the analysis on the Hendricks trade, I just do not think it had to be made. You would think the Islanders would have given something back even as a flyer on Dubnyk seeing their goalie troubles and that he’s a UFA. Even a conditional pick.

    This is one part of the equation that interests me though. What does this do to Lander/Arco? Gregor was live tweeting some of his interview with Nelson where he mentioned that he sees Lander as a solid 3rd line, two-way forward. Maybe that’s what MacT is banking on and he will keep Lander down until the offence really comes through? As per Nelson, Lander is playing all situations and doing very well, he just needs to work on his finishing.

  116. stephen sheps says:

    Eastern Oil,

    Thanks for the info regarding the Nelson interview. That’s exactly what I hope to happen for Lander. Why is it automatically assumed that a player who plays in every possible situation in the AHL but needs to work on finishing will get shipped out simply because there’s a new 4th line plug? You mention both Arco and Lander’s futures with the organization– Arco fits the Reasoner template and if all goes really well, Lander could develop into a Sammy Pahlsson type player.

    I certainly don’t understand the motivation to go out and get this player, and it also means that one of Jones, Joensuu or Gazdic is going to be sent to the farm to make roster space for him (though I can’t say I mind that part!), but the Lander panic really makes no sense to me.

  117. JohnnyRocket says:

    Why are the worst parts of our organization still with us: professional scouting and assistant coaches? Cronyism. Would that change if Lowe got fired? Serious question. And I realize that the chances of this happening are nil, but I’m playing hypotheticals to avoid the thought MacT chasing bad players because of truculence, and poise, and saw-him-good.

  118. Genjutsu says:

    stephen sheps,

    This all day long.

    As for this type of player being available every year when was it again that the Oilers signed an effective 4 line player who was not 94?

    3X1.8 is hardly a boat anchor. These guys can always be moved if it becomes an issue.

  119. Lowetide says:

    stephen sheps:
    Ok, so here’s a crazy question, one that will likely make me look insane or stupid (or both), but why does Hendricks’ arrival automatically mean that Lander, a 22 yr. old RFA who is captain of the farm team, automatically gone? I understand that Hendricks has term (which can be compliance-eliminated this summer), and that Lander hasn’t shown much in his time as an emergency 4C, but maybe he’s not actually a 4C. We always seem to assume that player development for Forwards is a linear process, yet D-men always take longer and Goalies “by sun-dial” as has been often said. What if Lander just needs another year or two on the farm to play top line minutes, gets better and better and then arrives as a smart, fully formed, 200 ft. game playing 2/3C at the ripe old age of 24? Detroit does things like that with their prospects, which is why they never seem to rebuild, just retool a little. That doesn’t sound unreasonable, does it? Now I know the easy response to this idea is “because Oilers”, which I completely understand, but what if that doesn’t happen? It remains a possibility that just one of the team’s prospects might develop the right way-a slim one to be sure, but a possibility nonetheless.
    In Staples’ interview, MacT said some interesting things, including a few key points about stop-gap players. Perhaps Hendricks is one of those stop-gaps. Before we immediately turn into a collective internet chicken-little, lets give the guy a couple games before we all decide he has ‘negative value.’ And lets see what happens in the off-season regarding Lander’s RFA status before we immediately pronounce him as DOA.

    Where does he play? 4line C is locked up, 4line L is Gazdic. Lander’s done his entry level deal and (I believe) will be waiver eligible. He may want (as was the case with Hartikainen) a one-way deal and the organization may want a two-way contract.

    Lander might be an option for 13-14F but that doesn’t seem like a good fit based on age,

  120. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide,

    based on his lack of FO taken this year and the time with Gaustad and I assumed he was playing more wing than C.

    Why not have him play RW with Lander to mentor him in the 4C role?

  121. hunter1909 says:

    Whatever happened to Anton Lander “future captain of the oilers”?

    For that matter, what exactly is so great about Todd Nelson, since there never seems to be anything special aside from hyped players coming from OKC?

    Might as well save time and write Klefbom off too.

    But wow, they all sure seem great on draft day. Then at training camp early scrimmages, lol.

  122. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    Where does he fit? If he makes the team out of camp, 3LW learning from Gordon. Or give him a bigger AHL salary hybrid contract, like a 1st yr. 2-way, 2nd yr 1-way show me contract, the same sort of second contracts that Helm and Abdelkader got from the wings to avoid the waiver fear. Get good players, keep good players, develop good players. Why not make that the mantra? I’m totally fine with a LW depth chart of Hall, Perron, Lander and Smyth. Gazdic can shift to 4RW/13-14 depth guy. Who knows what the offseason looks like in terms of who stays and who goes, but assuming Lander will be flushed by default makes zero sense.

  123. hunter1909 says:

    Re cap considerations with MacT: Lowe never had a clue re managing the cap, so why should MacT be any better?

    Maybe they teach it at business school.

  124. jp says:

    Genjutsu:
    stephen sheps,

    3X1.8 is hardly a boat anchor.These guys can always be moved if it becomes an issue.

    Eric Belanger, Ben Eager, Steve MacIntyre and Darcy Hordichuk disagree with you.

  125. Genjutsu says:

    jp,

    Not really a comparable to any of the above.

  126. jp says:

    stephen sheps:
    Lowetide,

    Where does he fit? If he makes the team out of camp, 3LW learning from Gordon. Or give him abigger AHL salary hybrid contract, like a 1st yr. 2-way, 2nd yr 1-way show me contract, the same sort of second contracts that Helm and Abdelkader got from the wings to avoid the waiver fear. Get good players, keep good players, develop good players. Why not make that the mantra? I’m totally fine with a LW depth chart of Hall, Perron, Lander and Smyth. Gazdic can shift to 4RW/13-14 depth guy. Who knows what the offseason looks like in terms of who stays and who goes, but assuming Lander will be flushed by default makes zero sense.

    Agreed that he shouldn’t be flushed, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be. It makes considerably more than zero sense; why is Hartikainen in the KHL? There certainly is room for him to stick around if the Oilers value him, but his default roster spot has just been filled for the next 3.5 years. There’s no way this can be interpreted as a GOOD sign for Lander. I think that’s all that’s being said here. I like your plan, but the Oilers have chosen to do it differently in the recent past.

  127. jp says:

    Genjutsu:
    jp,

    Not really a comparable to any of the above.

    Not sure what you mean. Different player types?

    Belanger and Eager at least have similar kinds of contracts that would have been moved many time over by the Oilers if there were a taker.

  128. stephen sheps says:

    jp,

    Fair point. Past practice is just about all we have to go on, and GMs tend to prefer their own people. It would really be a shame to flush Lander before we know who he is. Thankfully with Harski, the Oilers still have his NHL rights for a couple more seasons, unlike Rajala who was actually let go for nothing. That’s what I’m afraid of regarding Lander.

  129. jp says:

    stephen sheps,

    I really hope they keep Lander too, whether it’s as depth in Edm/OKC, or keeping his rights while he matures a little more in Europe. He and Hartikainen can come back for a playoff run in 6 or 7 years :)

  130. Big Dan says:

    bendelson,

    Hi Bendelson.

    Those who know Broissoit personally can’t help but believe in him. He is very confident. And those who watch him play are impressed too (ask any Oil King fan). He has the basics down and keeps getting better.

    The stats don’t always support him, but yes, I think he will be the # goalie for the Oilers.

    And yes, I was one of the few happy with the Smid trade. I kind of changed my mind on him. In 2012-13, I saw his (and Petry’s) play slide. Yet, I still wanted Tambo to resign him because I liked Smid. Call it rose-coloured fan glasses.

    I noticed his play getting even worse this year. I was thinking, uh oh $3.5M for 4 years for this guy… and I knew his days were numbered the days they signed LD Andrew Ference and drafted LD Darnell Nurse.

    So I think MacT pulled a fast one getting a blue-chip goalie prospect (which we sorely needed) and Roman Horak – who I like as well as a versatile depth guy… I think he’s on the 3rd line next year if he puts on a few lb.

    Also, when we get a draft pick for Bryzgalov (who as a whole is part of the Smid trade), then the return does not look bad at all. I like the fact MacT is BUSY and has a bunch of options on his table. He also doesn’t hesitate. Hopefully, the Oiler scouts will find a few gems.

    Smid’s market value was much less than Oiler fans thought it was. Us homers tend to overrate our players.

    Case in point. Nick Schult,z, like Ryan Whitney, will not be dealt at the deadline. The other GM’s are not blind. He is awful.

    We also tend to underrate other players. Matt Hendricks can play C, LW, or RW. He’s ONLY 32 people = he’s not 38 like Belanger was. He’s definitely got 3 years left. We all bitch and complain the Oilers don’t have enough experience and leadership and toughness. Then, we get some and we complain because he doesn’t score a lot or he is getting paid $1.8M. Well guess what? Nobody is wanting to sign in Edmonton so you’re going to have to trade for them and possibly overpay for them. The cap’s $71M and it looks like the Oilers’ #1 goalie will make less than $3M so big deal.

    Why were fans ok with trading for Zack Smith ($1.8M) but Hendricks is way overpaid? Last summer, there were more than Nashville and Edmonton bidding on him. If the Oilers can get a couple equivalents of Hendricks/Gordon on defense (like a Scuderi type), what a relief that would be.

    Hendricks is not a stop gap. He’s a 3rd/4th liner who is great on the PK (our PK is almost as bad as our PP) and is oddly good on shootouts. The blue collar Oiler fans are going to fall in love with this guy in a hurry. I watched him play for Washington in the playoffs two in a row and thinking, man the Oilers could use this guy! Works his tail off.

  131. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    This would be the same MacTavish who said criticized the fourth line last year with the quote ““The best thing they were going to be was a non-factor.” and then brought in SMac, Gazdic, Acton, and now Hendricks.

    MacT is quoted as saying the pro scouts loved this guy, which means clearly the pro scouts need to be fired yesterday.

    Cap efficiency seems to be a foreign concept to the Oilers. Top teams will, if past spending behaviour holds, go into next year with a budget for their 4th line of less $3M. MacT has blown 2/3rds of that budget on one player, meaning he is most likely to spend closer to $4M on his 4th line.

    That’s $1M or more not available to address deficiencies elsewhere. Those other areas of need have a lot more impact on the success of the team than the 4th line does. Just bad management all around, even if Hendricks play does hold at its current level.

  132. gcw_rocks says:

    Looking at this roster, if I am the Oilers, I start working Lander out at LW. If he can generate even moderate offence from the LW spot, he would be a perfect fit next to Gordon. He can be the back up centre on defensive zone draws if Gordon gets thrown out, he can PK.

    If they waste Lander without trying to groom him to play with Gordon, they truly are fools.

  133. gcw_rocks says:

    Big Dan,

    Zack Smith is 25, not 32, and Smith delivers the required offence from a third liner, Hendricks does not.

  134. Big Dan says:

    gcw_rocks,

    32 is not old. Us Oiler fans want everybody young. :)

    Boyd Gordon started in a 4th line role in Washington, then played in a defensively oriented team after that. Oiler fans did not think he could score after he was acquired.

    Matt Hendricks could fit the exact same description, except he is $1.2M/year cheaper. Gordon and Z.Smith are both trending to be 25-30 point players.

    Hendricks will be more like Kyle Clifford, who many of us were hoping MacT would pick up in the summer. His ice time always goes up in the playoffs because of his toughness and hockey smarts. And he’ll play more in Edmonton so I will guess in the 20 point range.

    Not a big difference between Zack Smith and Matt Hendricks, other than Hendricks has more experience so he’ll offer some leadership to a team that sorely needs it. I am one of the few that love the move.

  135. NHL News Catchup: Dubnyk, Scrivens, Del Zotto on the move… | Ice Nation UK says:

    […] aging 4th liner with too much term on his contract and too little hockey skill in his toolbox.  Lowetide says it better than I can, but basically Hendricks is not a good NHL player, particularly not at his price-point ($1.85m for […]

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