BARONS V MARLIES 1.30.14

The Edmonton Oilers have been using their minor league team a lot this season. Martin Marincin is the star of the group, and there’s progress being made on a lot of different levels. Injuries to Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton curtailed the enthusiasm, but there have been some things rumbling in Oklahoma territory.

  • C Will Acton (EDM: 23, 2-1-3) (OKC 21, 5-2-7)
  • D Martin Marincin (EDM: 18, 0-1-1) (OKC 24, 3-4-7)
  • D Phil Larsen (EDM: 17, 1-5-6) (OKC 7, 1-6-7)
  • C Anton Lander (EDM: 12, 0-0-0) (OKC 27, 11-14-25)
  • D Taylor Fedun (EDM: 4, 2-0-2) (OKC 34, 6-16-22)
  • R Tyler Pitlick (EDM: 3, 1-0-1) (OKC 25, 5-8-13)
  • D Brad Hunt (EDM: 3, 0-0-0) (OKC 35, 4-15-19)
  • L Ryan Hamilton (EDM: 2, 0-0-0) (OKC 28, 5-9-14)
  • C Roman Horak (EDM: 1, 0-0-0) (OKC 28, 8-9-17)
  • L Linus Omark (EDM: 1, 0-0-0) (OKC 29, 14-15-29)

Mark Arcobello (EDM: 41, 4-14-18) is generally associated with this team, but hasn’t played in OKC this season. As a group, they are generally unimpressive as NHL prospects—Larsen doesn’t look like an NHL player from here, Acton played with the dregs but the 4line has been better since he was sent away, Arcobello doesn’t get around much anymore—but that Marincin fellow saves the day because he looks so damn good.

Any more like him? I do think Martin Gernat is a very promising prospect, Anton Lander might end up being a player and that Taylor Fedun is worthy of a real shot at things next fall (but may not get it). Tyler Pitlick looked good before his injury and appears to be getting things back, and Curtis Hamilton showed so well around Christmas one hopes he can get it back when he returns.

Why is this important? The trade deadline will create opportunities for some of these men. The ones who play well down the stretch may get some NHL time in the spring. Photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved.

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107 Responses to "BARONS V MARLIES 1.30.14"

  1. Lowetide says:

    d-pairs: Gernat-Fedun Davidson-Hunt Klefbom-Musil

  2. Lowetide says:

    R. Hamilton-Lander-Pitlick
    Combs-Horak-Pinizzotto
    Eager-Stretch-Ford
    Fyten-Ewanyk-Kessy

  3. Ducey says:

    Is Klefbom – Musil the #1 pairing?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    Is Klefbom – Musil the #1 pairing?

    Top pairing is the one Fedun’s on from what I’m reading/hearing.

  5. nelson88 says:

    Why are the centre’s in the middle? did you get conked on the head today or has the earth shifted while i was out of town….;)

  6. sliderule says:

    If you look at D from Gernat’s draft year he is putting up as good or better boxes than the players in his class playing in AHL.

    He is a very good skater and has the frame to fill out quickly.

    I would think the oil should give him a few games this year.

  7. Lowetide says:

    R Hamilton (Lander, Pitlick)

  8. Henry says:

    The Oilers really have to look hard at Fedun after the deadline. He has little left to prove in the A. Can he play in the show? The end of a wasted season is the time to do the experiment.

  9. jfry says:

    is miller hurt?

    HS isn’t a good sign, if that’s the case.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Pitlick (6) (Lander, Fedun) Pitlick now up to 26, 6-9-15.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Ewanyk (Hunt)

  12. Lucinius says:

    I don’t really watch the Barons games, but it seems to be like Lander is still driving (or at least helping steer) the offense there as the first line center even without most of the more offensive minded players around. Would this be a fair enough assessment? It just seems that he’s started to really find his game nowadays in the AHL now that he hasn’t been a yo-yo bouncing back and forth between the Barons and Oilers and has recovered nicely after the Oilers put him in the NHL a couple years before he was developed.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Lucinius:
    I don’t really watch the Barons games, but it seems to be like Lander is still driving (or at least helping steer) the offense there as the first line center even without most of the more offensive minded players around. Would this be a fair enough assessment? It just seems that he’s started to really find his game nowadays in the AHL now that he hasn’t been a yo-yo bouncing back and forth between the Barons and Oilers and has recovered nicely after the Oilers put him in the NHL a couple years before he was developed.

    I think you’re spot on. Lander had a very good final season in the SEL at 19, but didn’t really do a thing in Edmonton the following year beyond penalty killing and skating around with dullards. Last season and this he’s found his game and I think he could have a career.

  14. Woodguy says:

    In relation to the last thread, Eric T took a swing at how to project goalies here:

    http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/1/21/5329992/nhl-stats-projections-data

    Basically he found their most recent performances more predictive than older performances.

    Seeing Scriven’s SV% increase over his small sample of NHL games is a good thing.

    He’s definitely worth a bet.

    I try to buy long and low on him.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Some of us suggested signing Scrivens the day he was acquired. :-)

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/01/oilers-acquire-scrivens.html

  16. The Great One says:

    San Jose trailing the Flames 1-0 after 1.

    Sharks only have 8 SOG.

    Tired arms?

  17. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Some of us suggested signing Scrivens the day he was acquired.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/01/oilers-acquire-scrivens.html

    11th comment into the thread I said:

    I like Scrivens a lot. I hope they can sign him.

    So yeah, I was about Scrivens like, before it was cool man.

    I’m Scrivens Hipster.

    Scripter.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: 11th comment into the thread I said:

    I like Scrivens a lot. I hope they can sign him.

    So yeah, I was about Scrivens like, before it was cool man.

    I’m Scrivens Hipster.

    Scripter.

    in fairness, I think the entire thread signed him that day. :-)

  19. The Great One says:

    Worth noting the Avalanche extended Varlamov for 5 years @ $5.9M/year today,.

    If Scrivens continues to play well, he’ll be in the driver’s seat.

  20. Lowetide says:

    The Great One:
    Worth noting the Avalanche extended Varlamov for 5 years @ $5.9M/year today,.

    If Scrivens continues to play well, he’ll be in the driver’s seat.

    That contract is so bad it’s vomit.

  21. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide: That contract is so bad it’s vomit.

    It seems to be a trend now 6 mil per. Chicago did and now this.

    Goalies are not getting any cheaper.

  22. The Great One says:

    Lowetide: That contract is so bad it’s vomit.

    Lowetide: That contract is so bad it’s vomit.

    Lowetide: That contract is so bad it’s vomit.

    Lots of risk for the Avs there but you can be sure Scrivens agent is paying attention.
    (no idea why you hurled 3 times) :)

  23. Lowetide says:

    Combs (Stretch, Fedun)

  24. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Calgary appears to be in position to defeat the Sharks tonight, though without the kind of dramatics the Oilers needed. 2-0 and 3 minutes left in the second.

  25. justDOit says:

    The Great One:

    If Scrivens continues to play well, he’ll be in the driver’s seat.

    Larsen and Potter on the first pairing should help.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Lander (EN). Lander, Fedun and Pitlick had nice games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them recalled between now and the end of the season.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Genjutsu: It seems to be a trend now 6 mil per.Chicago did and now this.

    Goalies are not getting any cheaper.

    Not true.

    The problem with goalies/contracts is that the market is fucked. It’s almost all big over and under pays.

    1. there are too many goalies options. there is never a lack for goalies, even goalies hitting league average sv%

    2. GMs have no idea how to value goalies and spend on reputation and spend big hoping to buy a security blanket.

    3. that big money is piled into a small % of the actually effective goalies available

    4. all the rest get paid modest salaries to peanuts. or, for every Lundquist there are a ton of Khudo, Scrivens, etc. types getting way underpaid and still trying to establish their reps.

    5. The smart bet is to stay they hell away from these massive $$ contracts, esp for huge term, and to exploit emerging markets like Euro and College.

    That Varlamov deal is atrocious.

  28. Lowetide says:

    OKC Barons Gameday ‏@BaronsGameDay 40s

    3 stars of tonight’s game: 3 — #OKCBarons Tyler Pitlick; 2 – #Marlies Spencer Abbott; 1 — #OKCBarons Anton Lander.

  29. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: That contract is so bad it’s vomit.

    If his next two years are closer to this year than last year, its not that awful.

    Cap going up to 80MM within 4 years, we’ll have to get used to average starters making $6MM

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Lander.

    I’ve watched a lot of Baron games this year (the streams are available this year). In previous years I always liked him a lot, but I was never sure about him as a prospect (all that wasted NHL time really hampers serious evaluation).

    But this year he’s become probably my favorite F prospect in the system. He just does so many things well at the AHL level. He’s already doing all of it. Watching him Captain that team in more ways than one has been a real eye-opener.

    This is a guy that Detroit always seems to find and keep on the roster for 15 years.

    Even if he makes it back to Europe, I’m convinced this is a pro hockey player of high calibre and the Oilers would be short-sighted to let him walk.

  31. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Not true.

    The problem with goalies/contracts is that the market is fucked. It’s almost all big over and under pays.

    1. there are too many goalies options. there is never a lack for goalies, even goalies hitting league average sv%

    2. GMs have no idea how to value goalies and spend on reputation and spend big hoping to buy a security blanket.

    3. that big money is piled into a small % of the actually effective goalies available

    4. all the rest get paid modest salaries to peanuts. or, for every Lundquist there are a ton of Khudo, Scrivens, etc. types getting way underpaid and still trying to establish their reps.

    5. The smart bet is to stay they hell away from these massive $$ contracts, esp for huge term, and to exploit emerging markets like Euro and College.

    That Varlamov deal is atrocious.

    I agree with your reasoning to keep with younger cheaper goalies, or at least one of them.

    The problems GM face is what happened here in Edmonton this year, as well as WIN and NYI.

    Shitty goalies can make an otherwise good team poor, average team shitty, and below average team horrific.

    Goaltending is never important unless you don’t have it.

  32. The Great One says:

    There is just a ton of teams that will be in the goaltender market in the offseason.

    After looking through all the teams on Cap Geek that have goalies going UFA, there are about 20 teams looking for either a 1B or backup. (and some, like Calgary, are looking for a starter.)

    The market may be shifting and any goalie who puts up an above average season should be in pretty good shape in the offseason.

    Also remember the cap is going to take a big leap forward so there will be a lot more money in the system.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: I agree with your reasoning to keep with younger cheaper goalies, or at least one of them.

    The problems GM face is what happened here in Edmonton this year, as well as WIN and NYI.

    Shitty goalies can make an otherwise good team poor, average team shitty, and below average team horrific.

    Goaltending is never important unless you don’t have it.

    I agree with all of that… but the real issue is that you simply aren’t guaranteed any measure of security with goalies no matter how much you pay.

    You don’t get out of the conundrum because you’ve spent a large % of your cap on a G.

    Lots of established Gs fall off a cliff for a year, or regress after a hot year, or get injured, or anything.

    The best bet seems to be to keep cycling through them and to find emerging and undervalued talent.

    Take LAK. The develop Quick, sign him long term, but keep solid guys coming up under him (Bernier, Jones and then Scrivens). Personally, I would have kept Bernier or Scrivens and Jones and sent away Quick for a king’s ransom. Keep the rotation going.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I agree with all of that… but the real issue is that you simply aren’t guaranteed any measure of security with goalies no matter how much you pay.

    You don’t get out of the conundrum because you’ve spent a large % of your cap on a G.

    While this is true, coaches and GMs get fired (except in EDM) for poor performance and they are terrified (rightly so) of putting the fortunes of their team in relatively unknown quantities.

    A GM would rather give starter $ to a guy who puts up .915 like clockwork than a guy who put up .927 2 years ago and .921 last year.

    Safe.

    They have enormous incentive to play safe with goalies.

  35. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes, but I think this http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6252, this http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/13/4712260/predicting-playoff-save-percentage and this http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/13/4697008/hot-goalies-conference-finals-save-percentage show that most goalies are a risk to not be enough. If goaltending is inherently unreliable, you might as well get it cheap.

    Of course, to go this route you need two guys.

    To summarize myself from above, what really screwed us this season wasn’t Dubnyk, it was Labarbra.

    If we get Scrivens and one other unproven but promising goalie maybe we get good goaltending, but probably we only get average goaltending. However, Colorado, CHicago et al. has that same risk, and we (in theory) should have a four million (or so) dollar advantage on the ice.

    Rarely do both goalies in a platoon turn out to be absolutely incapable at the NHL level, unless they’re playing in Edmonton.

    That tail is bound to come up heads pretty soon.

  36. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    Woodguy,

    Yes, but I think this http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6252, this http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/13/4712260/predicting-playoff-save-percentage and this http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/13/4697008/hot-goalies-conference-finals-save-percentage show that most goalies are a risk to not be enough. If goaltending is inherently unreliable, you might as well get it cheap.

    Of course, to go this route you need two guys.

    To summarize myself from above, what really screwed us this season wasn’t Dubnyk, it was Labarbra.

    If we get Scrivens and one other unproven but promising goalie maybe we get good goaltending, but probably we only get average goaltending. However, Colorado, CHicago et al. has that same risk, and we (in theory) should have a four million (or so) dollar advantage on the ice.

    Rarely do both goalies in a platoon turn out to be absolutely incapable at the NHL level, unless they’re playing in Edmonton.

    That tail is bound to come up heads pretty soon.

    I agree with all that.

    I’m talking about the reality of what a NHL GM faces in terms of pressure in terms of making sure the goaltending is sound and why they pay what they do.

    It doesn’t seem to be the most efficient way to spend the $$$, but I understand why they do it.

  37. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    Safe is good, as long as you’re paying for .915, not the .925 run he went on in the playoffs. As Rom points out, I think safety is an illusion. (I would have thought long and hard about trading Lunqvist if I was NY, and he’s the safest goalie in the league.)

    C&B’s stuff leads me to believe that what you want from a goalie is that he not give games away, and he has the potential for going on a playoff run. If you have that, you’re probably better off with a cheaper, if less spectacular goalie and then putting the money into reliable defencemen.

    Rightly or wrongly, hockey doesn’t care about the regular season. If your all-star goalie is only human come play-off time, you’re not winning the cup.

    You’re right about safe, and defencemen are much safer than goalies.

    Exception: If your team isn’t making the playoffs in the first place without an all-star goalie, you pay Rinne/Kipper what you have to pay him. Obviously the goal is to have a team that, goal-tending being equal, would contend, but that’s not always the reality.

  38. stevezie says:

    Woodguy: It doesn’t seem to be the most efficient way to spend the $$$, but I understand why they do it.

    Oh yeah I get it. I don’t think they’re crazy, I just don’t think they’re as smart as they could be.

    I think our goalie roulette plan is actually safer, but it sure looks a lot more dangerous, and optics loses jobs as much as results do.

  39. Woodguy says:

    stevezie: Oh yeah I get it. I don’t think they’re crazy, I just don’t think they’re as smart as they could be.

    I think our goalie roulette plan is actually safer, but it sure looks a lot more dangerous, and optics loses jobs as much as results do.

    Exactly.

  40. G Money says:

    The Great One:
    San Jose trailing the Flames 1-0 after 1.

    Sharks only have 8 SOG.

    Tired arms?

    Actually, this is a point that bears emphasizing.

    I watched a few stretches of the game, and the San Jose team tonight is a shadow of the team last night. In fact, the symptoms looked mighty familiar: losing foot races to the puck, losing one on one battles, passes to nowhere, giveaways galore, dropped and lost sticks, and confused line changes.

    Guess what? Third game in four nights, second of a back to back, playing against a team that did not play the night before.

    Not an excuse for last night, but certainly a huge part of it – when Mike Brown looks like Alex Ovechkin, you know fatigue is gnawing at limbs.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Bra and Panties at it again tonight:

    Tracy Lane ‏@TreenasOil Protected Tweets 5m
    Canucks have inquired about Ryan Jones as have the Sharks APG

    Tracy Lane ‏@TreenasOil Protected Tweets 8m
    Hemsky has met with both Mact and Lowe no word yet on if they talked extension but he was pleased with how the meetings went APG

    Tracy Lane ‏@TreenasOil Protected Tweets 12m
    Lots of talk going on tonite #Oilers close to moving a defenceman #Bruins and #Senators as per Garfield

    Hemsky staying, Jones going, Dmen going out to fill up the depleted picks bucket?

    I like all that.

    Seriously, if VAN or SJS called about Jones why didn’t MacT just scream SOLD! and do a happy dance all the way to fax machine?

    Also,

    I’d take less for Jones from SJS than whatever VAN offered, then call Gillis back and tell him about it.

    Prick.

  42. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Good talk guys!

    Completely agree with Stevezie here on Labarbera… but it was even more than that.

    MacT couldn’t get Scneids so he gave DD two really solid, historically fine backups in case DD faltered.

    The game plan was DD would be his historical average. Didn’t work.

    The first failsafe broke. Labarbera couldn’t do anything to stop the bleeding.

    The second failsafe worked like a hot damn, until Bachman got injured.

    I mean there is really no way MacT could have protected himself better in the offseason. He just got fucked. Big time. All the failsafes blew.

    That’s got to do some psychological damage. So Woodguy really is right. And, I’ve saying for a while MacT wants a safety blanket.

    Let’s just hope it works.

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Seriously, if VAN or SJS called about Jones why didn’t MacT just scream SOLD! and do a happy dance all the way to fax machine?

    hahaha. no kidding though. At this point if a player like that attracts interest, sell while the buyer exists and before Jones has a chance to break his hand fighting a guy. No need to wait.

  44. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Oddly, your description is a pretty accurate rendition of the events leading to the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster.

    The aftermath of that provides a reasonable metaphor for this season.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Bra and Panties at it again tonight:

    How do you gain access to these “protected” tweets…

    still figuring twitter out.

  46. The Great One says:

    There’s not a chance in hell Vancouver would have any interest in Jones.

    They need a top 6 forward who can score.

    They really don’t need anything else and Ryan Jones doesn’t qualify on any of those counts.

    Jones has 6 points in 37 games.

    You can likely get that kind of production at 7-11 after midnight.

  47. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: How do you gain access to these “protected” tweets…

    still figuring twitter out.

    I followed before he/she protected her/his tweets.

    I think you just click “follow” and the user will add you to their list.

    The big thing about protected tweets is that you cannot re-tweet them.

  48. Ice Sage says:

    The Great One:
    There’s not a chance in hell Vancouver would have any interest in Jones.

    They need a top 6 forward who can score.

    They really don’t need anything else and Ryan Jones doesn’t qualify on any of those counts.

    Jones has 6 points in 37 games.

    You can likely get that kind of production at 7-11 after midnight.

    Vancouver’s so lifeless that they need a jolt. Jones is a good energy guy and brings back a bit of that Laperriere spark. he’ll come cheap enough. Or maybe they should try Buffalo – I hear they have a good young center but it would cost them Kassian plus plus

  49. Woodguy says:

    The Great One:
    There’s not a chance in hell Vancouver would have any interest in Jones.

    They need a top 6 forward who can score.

    They really don’t need anything else and Ryan Jones doesn’t qualify on any of those counts.

    Jones has 6 points in 37 games.

    You can likely get that kind of production at 7-11 after midnight.

    .

    There’s a real chance that VAN falls out of playoff spot.

    That creates the kind of panic which can make Ryan Jones seem like a reasonable add.

    He costs nothing.

    VAN drafting and trading has left the well pretty dry.

    Here’s a trivia question for you….

    Name the last VAN draft pick who has played over 40 NHL games and still plays for VAN.

    Answer:

    Alex Edler taken in the 2nd round in 2004.

    10 years ago.

    Its been 10 years since the Dys added a player though the draft who has played more than 40 games for the franchise and is still there.

    Tell Gillis to break out the party hats when Schoeder hits 40. He’s at 36 now. He’s from the 2009 draft.

  50. Woodguy says:

    Ice Sage: Vancouver’s so lifeless that they need a jolt.Jones is a good energy guy and brings back a bit of that Laperriere spark. he’ll come cheap enough.Or maybe they should try Buffalo – I hear they have a good young center but it would cost them Kassian plus plus

    ZING!!!!

  51. Ice Sage says:

    The Great One:
    There’s not a chance in hell Vancouver would have any interest in Jones.

    They need a top 6 forward who can score.

    They really don’t need anything else and Ryan Jones doesn’t qualify on any of those counts.

    Jones has 6 points in 37 games.

    You can likely get that kind of production at 7-11 after midnight.

    Vancouver needs a jolt – talk about a limp team. Jones is a good energy guy who comes cheap – hardly the solution but it might serve to wake them up.. Maybe Gillis should try Buffalo – I hear they have a good young center who’s racking up points but it’ll probably cost a first and say maybe Kassian?

  52. Woodguy says:

    Ice Sage: Vancouver needs a jolt – talk about a limp team.Jones is a good energy guy who comes cheap – hardly the solution but it might serve to wake them up..Maybe Gillis should try Buffalo – I hear they have a good young center who’s racking up points but it’ll probably cost a first and say maybe Kassian?

    Ok, I’ll give you another ZING.

    ZING!!!

    Haha!

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ice Sage: Vancouver needs a jolt – talk about a limp team.Jones is a good energy guy who comes cheap – hardly the solution but it might serve to wake them up..Maybe Gillis should try Buffalo – I hear they have a good young center who’s racking up points but it’ll probably cost a first and say maybe Kassian?

    Did you somehow write the same comment 5 minutes apart?

  54. The Great One says:

    Ice Sage: Vancouver’s so lifeless that they need a jolt.Jones is a good energy guy and brings back a bit of that Laperriere spark. he’ll come cheap enough.Or maybe they should try Buffalo – I hear they have a good young center but it would cost them Kassian plus plus

    Oh, they are in a world of hurt.

    Henrik, Santorelli, Bieksa, Tanev, all out with injury..Daniel, Burrows, Kesler and Hansen all under performing but Jones provides NOTHING they need.

    The only way they would take Jones is if Booth went the other way and I don’t think MacT is that stupid.

    But, you never know.

    P.S. , Santorelli performed better that Hodgson before his season ending injury.

    Word is the Canucks and Jets are talking about a trade for Andrew Ladd.

    That makes much more sense for both teams.

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    At any rate, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Jones’ fighting and rugged depth play that has teams — VAN and otherwise — interested.

    whatever you can get.

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Too bad about Grabner.

    ahahaha

  57. Ice Sage says:

    Woodguy,

    Sorry, I got a message that original post was lost – shoulda checked. Zings appreciated even though I’ll confess to feeling a bit cheap kicking DSF when he’s down.
    I do hope that Vancouver and Oilers spend a season or two in the same tier as they pass each other on the Western Conference highway.
    I could see the canucks going all in this year, even trading one of their G or top 4 D to get a useful forward.

  58. The Great One says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Too bad about Grabner.

    ahahaha

    Too bad about Cogliano…hahahaha.

  59. Woodguy says:

    The Great One: Oh, they are in a world of hurt.

    Henrik, Santorelli, Bieksa, Tanev, all out with injury..Daniel, Burrows, Kesler and Hansen all under performing but Jones provides NOTHING they need.

    The only way they would take Jones is if Booth went the other way and I don’t think MacT is that stupid.

    But, you never know.

    P.S. , Santorelli performed better that Hodgson before his season ending injury.

    Word is the Canucks and Jets are talking about a trade for Andrew Ladd.

    That makes much more sense for both teams.

    How do you know that the Dys are circling the drain?

    Missing 550K UFA after-thought addition Santorelli, who has .57pts/gm is a big deal.

    Meanwhile Hodgeson has .69pts/gm and GRITENSITY EXPERT Kassian is rocking a .32pts/gm

  60. Woodguy says:

    Ice Sage,

    I’ll confess to feeling a bit cheap kicking DSF when he’s down.

    Do what you need to do to get rid of that feeling.

    :)

  61. Ice Sage says:

    The Great One: Oh, they are in a world of hurt.

    Henrik, Santorelli, Bieksa, Tanev, all out with injury..Daniel, Burrows, Kesler and Hansen all under performing but Jones provides NOTHING they need.

    The only way they would take Jones is if Booth went the other way and I don’t think MacT is that stupid.

    But, you never know.

    P.S. , Santorelli performed better that Hodgson before his season ending injury.

    Word is the Canucks and Jets are talking about a trade for Andrew Ladd.

    That makes much more sense for both teams.
    ,

    It’ll be interesting, for sure. Time was, there was depth there to compensate for injuries but the cupboards are pretty bare now.
    Winnipeg is back in a playoff race with Maurice revitalizing them and Ladd is their Iginla – it would take a pretty package to pry him loose. He would at least bring a few rings with him ;-)

  62. Woodguy says:

    @garik16 on twitter has been running goalies through Eric T’s projection formula.

    Assuming no age regression:

    Okay, with a really bad form of regression, here are your top 5 projected goalies over the next 3 years via 4 year MARCELs:
    #1: Rask, .9248.
    #2: Schneider: .9238
    #3: Lundqvist: .9228
    #4: Rinne: .9196
    #5: Miller .9195

    Your top 5 worst goalies by 4 year Marcels over the next 3 years with regression for sample size only (no aging curve) are:

    1. Pavelec: .9050
    2. Brodeur: .9059
    3. Lindback: .9081
    4. Mason: .9083
    5. Dubnyk: .9086

    Btw, they named the formula “Marcel” after Ross’ monkey on Friends.

    True Story.

  63. The Great One says:

    Ice Sage:
    Woodguy,

    Sorry, I got a message that original post was lost – shoulda checked.Zings appreciated even though I’ll confess to feeling a bit cheap kicking DSF when he’s down.
    I do hope that Vancouver and Oilers spend a season or twoin the same tier as they pass each other on the Western Conference highway.
    I could see the canucks going all in this year, even trading one of their G or top 4 D to get a useful forward.

    They’re in a very precarious position.

    Gillis will have to decide very shortly if it’s worth it to try and make a run this season.

    The Olympic break comes at a good time for them because of their injury issues but, even so, I can;t see them going beyond the first round of the playoffs.

    With the long term contracts and NTC’s in place, Gillis may have painted himself into a corner.

    Will be fascinating to watch.

    However, assuming they are riding a down elevator is a bit simplistic.

    With a Booth buy out, the Canucks will have about $15 million in cap space to play with in the offseason.

    If they can manage to pick up a couple of bonafide top 6 forwards, they could re-set pretty quickly.

  64. Woodguy says:

    Ice Sage: It’ll be interesting, for sure.Time was, there was depth there to compensate for injuries but the cupboards are pretty bare now.
    Winnipeg is back in aplayoff race with Maurice revitalizing them and Ladd is their Iginla – it would take a pretty package to pry him loose.He would at least bring a few rings with him

    If they’d stop playing Pavelec they’d actually be fighting for a playoff spot.

    Goaltending.

    Man.

  65. The Great One says:

    Woodguy: How do you know that the Dys are circling the drain?

    Missing 550K UFA after-thought addition Santorelli, who has .57pts/gm is a big deal.

    Meanwhile Hodgeson has .69pts/gm and GRITENSITY EXPERT Kassian is rockinga .32pts/gm

    You know that .57 + .32 is more than .69, right?

  66. Woodguy says:

    The Great One: They’re in a very precarious position.

    Gillis will have to decide very shortly if it’s worth it to try and make a run this season.

    The Olympic break comes at a good time for them because of their injury issues but, even so, I can;t see them going beyond the first round of the playoffs.

    With the long term contracts and NTC’s in place, Gillis may have painted himself into a corner.

    Will be fascinating to watch.

    However, assuming they are riding a down elevator is a bit simplistic.

    With a Booth buy out, the Canucks will have about $15 million in cap space to play with in the offseason.

    If they can manage to pick up a couple of bonafide top 6 forwards, they could re-set pretty quickly.

    With the aging core, especially on the D, they may only have 1 reset left, if that.

    It will be fascinating to watch.

    With the two Alberta teams currently being poster-boys for what not to do, I’m interested to see if Gillis has learned anything.

    What do you think he should do?

  67. The Great One says:

    Ice Sage: It’ll be interesting, for sure.Time was, there was depth there to compensate for injuries but the cupboards are pretty bare now.
    Winnipeg is back in aplayoff race with Maurice revitalizing them and Ladd is their Iginla – it would take a pretty package to pry him loose.He would at least bring a few rings with him

    The Canucks have loaded up a little in the past couple of seasons with Horvat, Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Jensen, Corrado, Fox and Erikkson.

    I think it will depend on whether or not Winnipeg thinks it can win with its current lineup going forward.

    If they decide they need to make significant changes, I would imagine players like Ladd might become available for the right price.

  68. Woodguy says:

    If I’m Gillis I try to find a team who needs a Dman to play PP1 and try like hell to get Garrison to waive his NTC and get a younger Dman back to start.

    Bieksa is falling off a cliff too in terms of health.

    Their strength is at D, I try to move 2 of them and get back a good young Dman and a good young winger.

    Chris Higgins is their leading point getter on the wing not named Sedin.

    Good Grief!

  69. Woodguy says:

    More projections from @garik16:

    Ben Scrivens projection: .9186. Bernier: .9190.

  70. Woodguy says:

    More from @garik16:

    4 year Marcels with regression put Craig Anderson expected to be at .915. He’s on the wrong side of 30, but he should be cheap to acquire.

    I’d be down with an Anderson/Scrivens combo.

    One year left at $3.187MM

  71. The Great One says:

    Woodguy: With the aging core, especially on the D, they may only have 1 reset left, if that.

    It will be fascinating to watch.

    With the two Alberta teams currently being poster-boys for what not to do, I’m interested to see if Gillis has learned anything.

    What do you think he should do?

    I think they have one re-set left.

    In retrospect, I think re-signing the Sedins for another 3 seasons was a mistake especially since they have NMC’s.

    All of Edler, Bieksa, Garrison and Hamhuis also have NTC’s so that makes it even tougher.

    So, their best unencumbered asset is Chris Tanev who is one hell of a young defenseman so I expect they may dangle him and may also try and convince Edler he would benefit from a change of address.

    If they can turn those assets into a couple of top 6 forwards they could at least be in the conversation again.

    If they don’t, they will be a second tier team for quite some time.

  72. Woodguy says:

    More from @garik16:

    4 year Marcels with regression put Craig Anderson expected to be at .915. He’s on the wrong side of 30, but he should be cheap to acquire.

    I’d be down with an Anderson/Scrivens combo.

    One year left at $3.187MM

    If you can get Scrivens to sign 3 years at $2MM, goaltending is probably solved for just over $5MM for one year at least.

    If Scrivens does enough to become the starter, then you have really cheap goaltending for 2 years after that.

  73. oilersfan says:

    Woodguy, i hate the canucks as much as anybody but the canucks forwards are the aging ones. Hamhuis edler and garrison are all 30ish and bieksa just over. I think that defence is good for 3-5 years. It’s those 33 year old twins on the first line who cap the window at 2-3 years.

    Bo Horvat and Shinkaruk are pretty good looking prospects, too!

  74. Woodguy says:

    The Great One,

    So, their best unencumbered asset is Chris Tanev who is one hell of a young defenseman so I expect they may dangle him and may also try and convince Edler he would benefit from a change of address.

    I think Gillis needs to avoid moving Tanev and concentrate an getting a couple of guys with NTC to agree to go.

    Moving out good young players is the wrong thing to do.

    Most guys with NTC clauses aren’t opposed to being traded, its just gives them a big say in where they go.

    Also,

    I think a big part of the Sedin drop off is Torts.

    They’ve been give 70% OZone starts for years and no PK time and their production flourished.

    Now they start in the Dzone more, play the PK and the offence suffers.

    I get a coach who was more like Vigneault and turf Torts pretty quick.

  75. spoiler says:

    The Great One: You know that .57 + .32 is more than .69, right?

    Wow you sure sound alot like another guy we used to call DSF, among other things.

  76. Woodguy says:

    oilersfan:
    Woodguy, i hate the canucks as much as anybody but the canucks forwards are the aging ones. Hamhuis edler and garrison are all 30ish and bieksa just over. I think that defence is good for 3-5 years. It’s those 33 year old twins on the first line who cap the window at 2-3 years.

    Bo Horvat and Shinkaruk are pretty good looking prospects, too!

    D fall off the aging curve much faster than F’s.

    As I stated in the post above, the Sedin’s issue this year is usage as much as age.

    Get rid of an early 30′s D or two before their value is nothing.

    Tanev is the goods and Stanton may be a player too.

  77. Hammers says:

    Gillis will trade Edler if not now then by the summer. He needs a forward who can score . Edler is so Hot & Cold he scares me but he would be a #1 “D” in Edmonton . Could we get Edler for Perron ??? Helps both teams . I know everyone wants to move Gags but what could he get us ; not Edler . McT might move Perron if Hemsky resigns . Just thinking of possibilities .

  78. Woodguy says:

    The Great One: You know that .57 + .32 is more than .69, right?

    You know 2 players are twice as many as 1 player, right?

  79. The Great One says:

    Woodguy:
    The Great One,

    So, their best unencumbered asset is Chris Tanev who is one hell of a young defenseman so I expect they may dangle him and may also try and convince Edler he would benefit from a change of address.

    I think Gillis needs to avoid moving Tanev and concentrate an getting a couple of guys with NTC to agree to go.

    Moving out good young players is the wrong thing to do.

    Most guys with NTC clauses aren’t opposed to being traded, its just gives them a big say in where they go.

    Also,

    I think a big part of the Sedin drop off is Torts.

    They’ve been give 70% OZone starts for years and no PK time and their production flourished.

    Now they start in the Dzone more, play the PK and the offence suffers.

    I get a coach who was more like Vigneault and turf Torts pretty quick.

    Agree with pretty much all of this.

    Also, Torts insistence on shot blocking as a strategy has already cost them a lot of man games.

  80. Ice Sage says:

    The Great One: I think they have one re-set left.

    In retrospect, I think re-signing the Sedins for another 3 seasons was a mistake especially since they have NMC’s.

    All of Edler, Bieksa, Garrison and Hamhuis also have NTC’s so that makes it even tougher.

    So, their best unencumbered asset is Chris Tanev who is one hell of a young defenseman so I expect they may dangle him and may also try and convince Edler he would benefit from a change of address.

    If they can turn those assets into a couple of top 6 forwards they could at least be in the conversation again.

    If they don’t, they will be a second tier team for quite some time.

    It’s too bad, if only Gillis had accepted that # 7 pick for Schneider – coulda taken Nichuskin – problems solved for both teams. He apparently also wanted Marincin, though… good eye

  81. The Great One says:

    spoiler: Wow you sure sound alot like another guy we used to call DSF, among other things.

    That DSF guy was a GENIUS!

    Whatever happened to him anyway?

    :)

  82. The Great One says:

    Ice Sage: It’s too bad, if only Gillis had accepted that# 7 pick for Schneider – coulda taken Nichuskin – problems solved for both teams.He apparently also wanted Marincin, though… good eye

    Horvat looks like he might be okay.

  83. The Great One says:

    Woodguy: You know 2 players are twice as many as 1 player, right?

    Yes,

    Yes I do,

    Do you want to add someone to even things out?

    P.S. Santorelli is at least as good as Hogdson despite the draft pedigree.

  84. rickithebear says:

    RNH
    upper 1st comp
    56% ZS
    41.8% FO
    Bottom 20 numbers limited minutes on PK.
    54GM 15G 27A 42P
    10 EVG (85th) 26 EVP (62nd)

    Ladd
    Upper 1st Comp
    51% ZS
    bottom 20 Fwd PK
    55gm 12G 24A 36 P
    10 EVG (85th) 26 EVP (62nd)

    Santorelli
    Upper 2nd Comp
    43% ZS
    51.3 FO%
    7th best PK Fwd in league
    49gm 10G 18A 28P
    10 EVG (85th) 26 EVP (62nd)

  85. Woodguy says:

    The Great One: Agree with pretty much all of this.

    Also, Torts insistence on shot blocking as a strategy has already cost them a lot of man games.

    I ask players with NTC that I want to trade to waive them BEFORE I punt Torts.

    I bet I’d get more takers if they thought they had to keep playing for him.

  86. The Great One says:

    rickithebear:
    RNH
    upper 1st comp
    56% ZS
    41.8% FO
    Bottom 20 numbers limited minutes on PK.
    54GM 15G 27A 42P
    10 EVG (85th) 26 EVP (62nd)

    Ladd
    Upper 1st Comp
    51% ZS
    bottom 20 Fwd PK
    55gm 12G 24A36 P
    10 EVG (85th) 26 EVP (62nd)

    Santorelli
    Upper 2nd Comp
    43% ZS
    51.3 FO%
    7th best PK Fwd in league
    49gm 10G 18A 28P
    10 EVG (85th)26 EVP (62nd)

    Cap hit going forward:

    RNH: $6M

    Ladd: $4.4M

    Santorelli: $550K?

    Value?

  87. Woodguy says:

    The Great One: Yes,

    Yes I do,

    Do you want to add someone to even things out?

    P.S. Santorelli is at least as good as Hogdson despite the draft pedigree.

    I like Santorelli when he was with Vancouver South….I mean FLA.

    It still speaks to their depth that a $550K FA pick up is one of their best players.

    I don’t think he’s as good as Hodgson though.

    Hodgson is producing more, against better comp, on a worse team.

  88. The Great One says:

    Woodguy: I ask players with NTC that I want to trade to waive them BEFORE I punt Torts.

    I bet I’d get more takers if they thought they had to keep playing for him.

    As a former agent, Gillis has an issue.

    He has stated several times that he wouldn’t ask a player to waive his NTC since he believes that is a re-negotiation of the original contract.

    But, I would imagine, if he approached a player like Edler and said another team had expressed interest he could still sleep at night.

    If he can’t move one or two of those contracts he may be hooped.

  89. Woodguy says:

    The Great One: Cap hit going forward:

    RNH:$6M

    Ladd: $4.4M

    Santorelli: $550K?

    Value?

    Going forward?

    You mean the next 30 games right?

    Santorelli is FA after this year.

  90. The Great One says:

    Woodguy: I like Santorelli when he was with Vancouver South….I mean FLA.

    It still speaks to their depth that a $550K FA pick up is one of their best players.

    I don’t think he’s as good as Hodgson though.

    Hodgson is producing more, against better comp, on a worse team.

    Woodguy: I like Santorelli when he was with Vancouver South….I mean FLA.

    It still speaks to their depth that a $550K FA pick up is one of their best players.

    I don’t think he’s as good as Hodgson though.

    Hodgson is producing more, against better comp, on a worse team.

    Woodguy: I like Santorelli when he was with Vancouver South….I mean FLA.

    It still speaks to their depth that a $550K FA pick up is one of their best players.

    I don’t think he’s as good as Hodgson though.

    Hodgson is producing more, against better comp, on a worse team.

    P/60 5V5

    Santorelli – 1.96

    Hodgson – 1.70

    Considering their cap hits, no contest,

  91. The Great One says:

    Woodguy: Going forward?

    You mean the next 30 games right?

    Santorelli is FA after this year.

    Santorelli had surgery for a torn labrum today so he may never play again considering he was on a 1 year contract.

    Gotta feel for the guy…played balls out for a few games.

  92. David says:

    Now that everyone loves Marincin if Pitlick can become that solid third liner we saw a glimpse of a lot of people will owe Stu an apology about the 2010 draft. A lot of venom has been spewed at that draft. Could work put just fine.

  93. Woodguy says:

    The Great One: Santorelli had surgery for a torn labrum today so he may never play again considering he was on a 1 year contract.

    Gotta feel for the guy…played balls out for a few games.

    Shitty luck.

    Someone will pick him up for nothing in late summer.

    Maybe Gillis will again?

  94. The Great One says:

    Woodguy: Shitty luck.

    Someone will pick him up for nothing in late summer.

    Maybe Gillis will again?

    Maybe.

    He’s the kind of player you root for.

    A 6th round pick who worked his butt off to have an NHL career and managed to have a 20 goal season.

    And a good BC boy!

  95. The Great One says:

    David:
    Now that everyone loves Marincin if Pitlick can become that solid third liner we saw a glimpse of a lot of people will owe Stu an apology about the 2010 draft. A lot of venom has been spewed at that draft. Could work put just fine.

    It’s now 5 years on.

    Now is the time.

  96. gogliano says:

    I take DSF’s return to Lowetide as an omen that the Oilers have turned a crucial corner with this last win streak. Finally good enough to troll.

  97. Ducey says:

    gogliano:
    I take DSF’s return to Lowetide as an omen that the Oilers have turned a crucial corner with this last win streak.Finally good enough to troll.

    You are right,

    There seems to be an inverse relationship between the number of people popping in to scream FIRE LOWE and the appearance of DSF or one of his subsequent incarnations.

    I kind of enjoy having DSF around – although I think he spelt “Great” wrong :)

  98. Lois Lowe says:

    I think it was Vancouver giving up five unanswered last night. I laughed and laughed.

  99. Caramel Obvious says:

    The name Marcel comes from Tom Tango’s projection system in baseball. It’s a simply three year weighted average. So simple a monkey could come up with it. The idea is that this is the baseline that any projection system has to beat. If you can’t beat a monkey then your projection system isn’t worth anything.

  100. Marc says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Good talk guys!

    Completely agree with Stevezie here on Labarbera… but it was even more than that.

    MacT couldn’t get Scneids so he gave DD two really solid, historically fine backups in case DD faltered.

    The game plan was DD would be his historical average. Didn’t work.

    The first failsafe broke. Labarbera couldn’t do anything to stop the bleeding.

    The second failsafe worked like a hot damn, until Bachman got injured.

    I mean there is really no way MacT could have protected himself better in the offseason. He just got fucked. Big time. All the failsafes blew.

    That’s got to do some psychological damage. So Woodguy really is right. And, I’ve saying for a while MacT wants a safety blanket.

    Let’s just hope it works.

    This is perceptive and I think it gives us some clues about how MacT approaches the offseason. He’s been badly burned by going with a clear starter/veteran backup approach, so I think he’ll want to have a 1A/1B set up going forward.

    I think Scrivens will get signed, as will one of the veteran starters like Hiller or Halak. As to which veteran gets signed, I suspect it will come down to who will accept shorter term. I can’t see MacT giving any goalie he signs this summer more than 3 years.

  101. DeadmanWaking says:

    Marc: He’s been badly burned by going with a clear starter/veteran backup approach, so I think he’ll want to have a 1A/1B set up going forward.

    I can never figure out when people put this kind of argument forward whether it represents a belief or a wish.

    A manager with exceptional ability to discern the good moves from the bad moves regards constraints emanating from perception as a liability.

    A manager with an inferior ability to discern the good moves from the bad moves (and fully realizes he’s not the smartest guy in the room) is more inclined to regard the constraints of public perception as an asset to be exploited. With mastery of the public narrative, he can probably survive a protracted string of mediocrity. He’ll tend to be risk averse, and won’t make the mistake of repeating the same mistake in quick succession, because he knows it plays bad (not on the ice, in the court of public perception).

    Let’s suppose the baffling Smid transaction was a masterful stroke of selling an asset high. If anyone witnessed first hand all the times Smid subjected his luggage to rough handling on the carousel near the end boards, it would be MacTavish.

    Best case scenario is that he gets publicly pilloried for three to six months before the rest of the world catches onto Smid’s looming decline. Worst case scenario he get pilloried for the life (Smid’s imminent decline fails to materialise).

    The sharp manager would like to trade on his wits and ignore public perception as much as possible, but he knows it really can bite you in the ass, so he worries all night about just how much he get away with making good trades, and where he has to turn a good deal down to keep the natives from boiling into a disruptive froth.

    In the world of sharp cookies, one pays a lot of money to take the kind of course where they teach you how to not overvalue recent outcomes (this is a well-documented human tendency) and to instead remain objective.

    The rare individual who is truly a cut above can basically tell public perception to piss off. This works great, but plan on a hard landing down the road if your genius falters. It’s well documented that genius is often specific to prevailing conditions (e.g. Schindler in wartime, or an art critique uniquely suited to his cultural epoch). The failure of many geniuses lies in refusing to concede that their genius–which is quite real–is circumstantial rather than innate. At one point DePalma could do no wrong. Most recently, six of his last seven projects were total bombs. He had the golden touch for a particular era (and its financial practices).

    I know that in personal relationships, management by optics is a major gateway to co-dependence. The problem is that catering to optics tends to escalate, like a drug. The more you do it, the more you need to continue to do it, until it’s corrosive to your native convictions.

    From the perspective of the armchair superfan, there’s a reinforcement loop that tends to make management by optics more appealing: it’s far easier to assess the trajectory of a GM enslaved to public optics than that of a GM with real talent still learning on the job and honing his game. The superfan appears far more prescient pontificating about the optics-slave than the GM who resolutely remains his own man.

    But really, unless you have an insanely high degree of belief in the wisdom of crowds (sufficient to overcome their ignorant of vast swathes of vital particulars, including everything from the team’s medical staff), the competent and resolute GM will far outperform the GM of optics serfdom.

    In advanced investing, one can take positions not just for or against a stock, but for or against the volatility of the market (through various hedges). It’s possible as an armchair superfan to like or dislike volatility. If one dislikes volatility (this usually entails being reasonably happy with mediocrity) then perhaps the GM of optics serfdom better suits your desires.

    A competent GM making bold moves is going to make mistakes, and with that comes volatility. Rough patches. Hair-pulling WTF hockey seasons. Reincarnation of DSF.

    There can be good reasons to hate volatility.

    I drink my competence neat. Piss on optics. Don’t go looking to stick your neck out unnecessarily, but don’t turn away from your true gut instinct, either. Be calm, humble, fair with people, ruthless with facts, and just daring enough to seize the main chance when it sashays into your life.

    At the poker table, say you’re all-in head to head at the river. The hands come up and you’re 70% to win the pot. You win. You have won this hand. You got your chips in against an opponent holding inferior cards, and now the majority of those chips are rightfully yours (precisely 70% in this example). What more can you do?

    Turning the river card for me is actually a separate game. You’re forced to leave the chips you’ve won in the pot to play a volatility game. This has no impact on your expected winnings. This is a lot like the shoot out. There’s no skill remaining. Lady luck will smile or not smile. Maybe this is the hand where you suffer the bad beat, maybe it isn’t. Either way, if you believe in statistics (and your dealer) it all averages out.

    The interesting case is where a competent GM wishes to make a trade with an optics serfdom GM. You’re going to need to understand how optics influences your counterpart, and you may have to cater to that insight, strategically (while secretly thinking the other guy is a complete idiot).

    So it’s possible that a GM will engage in optical moves not because he believes in optics, but because he believes that other GMs believe in optics (or even more tenuously, because he believes that the other GM’s armchair critics believe in optics and this group is capable of making a big enough stink to actually matter).

    Analytics and optics are oil and water. They can nevertheless make a nice salad dressing in the hands of an astute chef.

  102. russ99 says:

    I hope they punt 70% of the Barons roster next year since other than the 3-4 defense prospects it’s a mishmash of poor AHL vets, old Marlies not good enough for even our cruddy NHL roster, hidden failed contracts and former CHL goons who will be out of a job soon.

    A few decent forward prospects would be nice.

  103. oliveoilers says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    The name Marcel comes from Tom Tango’s projection system in baseball.It’s a simply three year weighted average.So simple a monkey could come up with it.The idea is that this is the baseline that any projection system has to beat.If you can’t beat a monkey then your projection system isn’t worth anything.

    I bet you beat your monkey all day, every day and twice on Sunday.

  104. oliveoilers says:

    DeadmanWaking: I can never figure out when people put this kind of argument forward whether it represents a belief or a wish.

    A manager with exceptional ability to discern the good moves from the bad moves regards constraints emanating from perception as a liability.

    A manager with an inferior ability to discern the good moves from the bad moves (and fully realizes he’s not the smartest guy in the room) is more inclined to regard the constraints of public perception as an asset to be exploited. With mastery of the public narrative, he can probably survive a protracted string of mediocrity.He’ll tend to be risk averse, and won’t make the mistake of repeating the same mistake in quick succession, because he knows it plays bad (not on the ice, in the court of public perception).

    Let’s suppose the baffling Smid transaction was a masterful stroke of selling an asset high.If anyone witnessed first hand all the times Smid subjected his luggage to rough handling on the carousel near the end boards, it would be MacTavish.

    Best case scenario is that he gets publicly pilloried for three to six months before the rest of the world catches onto Smid’s looming decline.Worst case scenario he get pilloried for the life (Smid’s imminent decline fails to materialise).

    The sharp manager would like to trade on his wits and ignore public perception as much as possible, but he knows it really can bite you in the ass, so he worries all night about just how much he get away with making good trades, and where he has to turn a good deal down to keep the natives from boiling into a disruptive froth.

    In the world of sharp cookies, one pays a lot of money to take the kind of course where they teach you how to not overvalue recent outcomes (this is a well-documented human tendency) and to instead remain objective.

    The rare individual who is truly a cut above can basically tell public perception to piss off.This works great, but plan on a hard landing down the road if your genius falters.It’s well documented that genius is often specific to prevailing conditions (e.g. Schindler in wartime, or an art critique uniquely suited to his cultural epoch). The failure of many geniuses lies in refusing to concede that their genius–which is quite real–is circumstantial rather than innate.At one point DePalma could do no wrong.Most recently, six of his last seven projects were total bombs. He had the golden touch for a particular era (and its financial practices).

    I know that in personal relationships, management by optics is a major gateway to co-dependence.The problem is that catering to optics tends to escalate, like a drug.The more you do it, the more you need to continue to do it, until it’s corrosive to your native convictions.

    From the perspective of the armchair superfan, there’s a reinforcement loop that tends to make management by optics more appealing: it’s far easier to assess the trajectory of a GM enslaved to public optics than that of a GM with real talent still learning on the job and honing his game.The superfan appears far more prescient pontificating about the optics-slave than the GM who resolutely remains his own man.

    But really, unless you have an insanely high degree of belief in the wisdom of crowds (sufficient to overcome their ignorant of vast swathes of vital particulars, including everything from the team’s medical staff), the competent and resolute GM will far outperform the GM of optics serfdom.

    In advanced investing, one can take positions not just for or against a stock, but for or against the volatility of the market (through various hedges).It’s possible as an armchair superfan to like or dislike volatility.If one dislikes volatility (this usually entails being reasonably happy with mediocrity) then perhaps the GM of optics serfdom better suits your desires.

    A competent GM making bold moves is going to make mistakes, and with that comes volatility.Rough patches.Hair-pulling WTF hockey seasons. Reincarnation of DSF.

    There can be good reasons to hate volatility.

    I drink my competence neat.Piss on optics.Don’t go looking to stick your neck out unnecessarily, but don’t turn away from your true gut instinct, either.Be calm, humble, fair with people, ruthless with facts, and just daring enough to seize the main chance when it sashays into your life.

    At the poker table, say you’re all-in head to head at the river.The hands come up and you’re 70% to win the pot.You win.You have won this hand.You got your chips in against an opponent holding inferior cards, and now the majority of those chips are rightfully yours (precisely 70% in this example).What more can you do?

    Turning the river card for me is actually a separate game.You’re forced to leave the chips you’ve won in the pot to play a volatility game.This has no impact on your expected winnings.This is a lot like the shoot out.There’s no skill remaining.Lady luck will smile or not smile.Maybe this is the hand where you suffer the bad beat, maybe it isn’t. Either way, if you believe in statistics (and your dealer) it all averages out.

    The interesting case is where a competent GM wishes to make a trade with an optics serfdom GM.You’re going to need to understand how optics influences your counterpart, and you may have to cater to that insight, strategically (while secretly thinking the other guy is a complete idiot).

    So it’s possible that a GM will engage in optical moves not because he believes in optics, but because he believes that other GMs believe in optics (or even more tenuously, because he believes that the other GM’s armchair critics believe in optics and this group is capable of making a big enough stink to actually matter).

    Analytics and optics are oil and water.They can nevertheless make a nice salad dressing in the hands of an astute chef.

    Don’t you know that Rome IS the mob? Are you not entertained?

    Great read!

  105. Pouzar says:

    David,

    Hendricks-Gordon-Pitlick

    Yes please.

  106. stevezie says:

    oliveoilers: I bet you beat your monkey all day, every day and twice on Sunday.

    Hopefully the projection system is aimed somewhere disposable. Some stains don’t fade.

  107. stevezie says:

    I was so desperate not to write an article that I went to ON. Sometimes I forget that LY and Willis write there. http://oilersnation.com/2014/1/30/point-per-game-anton
    I am stunned at how good Lander is looking. His production has matched Omark’s. I know he’s never blown the doors off at the bigs, but as far as I’m concerned we can stop looking for a 4th line center- now that’s mostly because I like Hendricks better there than on the 3rd, but hats off to Anton.

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