BEN THE GIANT

In the middle of a miserable season, a raging inferno of bad badder baddest, Spruce Grove’s newly famous son delivered the impossible. A giant performance from the new hire, a shameful one from the old ones, this unlikely bunch of ragtags became part of history—thanks to the most brilliant goaltending performance of the expansion era.

What will he do for an encore? Look out, Boston!

  • Dallas Eakins: “That’s how I thought our skaters were playing the game; they were watching Ben play. It was an incredible thing to watch, I’ve never seen that before. I’m so happy for Ben and proud of him and then you’re mad at the same time.” 
  • Todd McLellan“Hats off to the goaltender, he was tremendous,”Probably first, second and third star. If he wasn’t he deserved it. Heck of a performance. In all my years in the league I don’t think I’ve seen that. We attempted 100 shots on goal, that doesn’t happen very often.”

DICKALL AT REXALL

dickall at rexall

Samwise looked like roadkill by eye and by number, he was saved once by the young Russian on a play against Joe Thornton. I think credit is due San Jose here, they are a wonderful team, but if you want to watch a video of what makes the Oilers the Oilers, hootchie mama this is the one. Bad breakout passes, passes to nowhere, lack of battle, lack of effort, it was the Gong show 2.0 all night long.

Hall won some battles and Nuge did too, and I also know Gordon and Jones worked like buggers. Belov was physical, Marincin did some effective things along with the chaos but this game came at them in waves. It’s a wonder their uniforms stayed on, what with all that was sailing by them.

Jesus, Mary and Joseph.

CRISS CROSS

walker

Parkatti tells more about the horror story here. Jonathan Willis had a brilliant post up over at CofH (I can’t link from this computer but you know where to find it) and of course we’ll be talking about the performance a lot today on the LDWLT show. Question: where does this rank in terms of all-time Oiler performances by a goalie? I’d rank Fuhr’s 1-0 against the Islanders, Ranford’s brilliance in 1990 (take your pick, he stoned Winnipeg) and then Roloson v. Sharks 2006 as the top ones, and for me Scrivens v Sharks 2014 is in that realm.

Lordy.

HALL IN SCORING RACE

hall scoring race

Taylor Hall finished 9th last season in scoring, it looks like he’s roaring to another solid finish. The corgi’s have abandoned him and the hellhounds are barking at his heels, but Hall is tracking points like a revved up pac-man on speed. How high can he fly? He’ll reach the sky.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

kellyrw

Not quite all Scrivens all-the-time, but it’ll be the subject of conversation quite a bit this morning. Wow. Scheduled to appear:

  • Alan Hull from Copper and Blue. Scrivens, the chaos in front of him, and how many should they throw from the train?
  • Lindsay Bax from MacEwan Athletics. They’re going to “white out” the gym tomorrow night to celebrate a stunning season for the Griffins. We’ll talk about a season of champions at MacEwan.
  • Richard Cloutier from Puck Rant. We’ll talk about the trade deadline, and figure out what the Oilers will do with Hemsky.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Guy knows the NCAA extremely well, we’ll talk Ben Scrivens and I’ll ask him about the next Ben Scrivens in the NCAA—and the spring free agents.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide_ twitter. Stay tuned! We’re going to take 100 shots!

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193 Responses to "BEN THE GIANT"

  1. PhrankLee says:

    Wow. Oilers and Spruce Grove goalies…

  2. Snowman says:

    Unbelievable night by Scrivens. Oil Country will be talking about that one for a while. If you’re MacT you gotta be thinking pretty seriously about his contract now. Admittedly, pretty small sample size in Edmonton but a history of success at every level and I think enough NHL games to give him a bridge contract for a couple years especially if he plays solid for the remainder of the season. I have no idea as for a dollar figure. Maybe some of the wise, cap knowledgable posters can weigh in on that. It feels good to be on the side of a game where a goalie steals one for once. Especially against a team you have no business beating on most nights.

    On another note. The Kid Line went for for 15 shots on net. That’s a pretty good night for those boys and a sign of things to come.

    On the other hand… 59 shots against! 100 shot attempts against!

  3. Fixall with Rexall says:

    This in my opinion is the second best performance I’ve ever seen. San Jose was nuts. The old blitz-storm-swarm-overload game strategy. It reminded me of Halladay pitching a perfect game when it started getting late, it just had that feel.

  4. Andy P says:

    All we need is an NHL calibre defence in front of him.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Jonathan Willis had a brilliant post up over at CofH (I can’t link from this computer but you know where to find it)

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/01/29/edmonton-oilers-player-grades-ben-scrivens-provides-best-goaltending-in-modern-nhl-history/

  6. PunjabiOil says:

    You wonder how much this performance will impact, if at all, negotiations in the summer.

    1. Does Ben Scrivens (his wife) even want him to re-sign in Edmonton?
    2. What teams will be bidding on him, if at all? Possibly: Calgary, NYI, Philadelphia, Washington, Winnipeg, Florida, Buffalo.

    I think the Oilers can’t go north of 2.75M

    They just can’t.

  7. Fixall with Rexall says:

    I think Hasek and Brodeur in 94 will always be the greatest performance of a goalie(s). But this was right up there. This game alone is worth my GameCenter subscription.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ha!

    Richard Cloutier. That joke’s like 4 months old!

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I love Strangers on a Train so much.

    Hitchcock hits all the Hitchcockian buttons: suspense, creepiness, hilarity, masterful set-pieces… it’s just fantastic.

    And… the Princess. Again! Not that I’m complaining, but it seems to me she’s been in your thoughts more and more of late LT.

  10. SoCaloil says:

    Why is Bill Ranford not with the old boys club
    He’s obviously doing all the right things for LA

  11. G Money says:

    Anyone remember John Tavares’ first couple of years, when despite a decent point output, people were wondering if he was a “bust” as a #1 pick because of his awkward skating and inability to dominate a game?

  12. book¡je says:

    Fixall with Rexall:
    I think Hasek and Brodeur in 94 will always be the greatest performance of a goalie(s). But this was right up there. This game alone is worth my GameCenter subscription.

    I agree, I think the fact that Hasak stopped 70 shots in a single game (even though it was over 7 periods) and Roy’s similar performance probably rank as being more impressive. Both also occurred during a period where the average save percentage was much lower.

    With that said, it takes nothing away from the near miracle of a game that Scrivens played. Simply tremendous.

  13. ASkoreyko says:

    I don’t see why they wouldn’t at least give him Dubnyk money.

    Scrivens is almost at exactly the same place in his career that Devan was when he got $3.5Mx2.

    You would think something at least along those lines is in order for Scrivens, especially if he continues to keep up even a moderate pace for the rest of the year.

    After hearing last night about how vocal he is; coming to bench at each timeout and talking to everyone, directing traffic from his crease, listening to him talk about the team in the post game, I am fully onboard with locking this guy up for at least a few years even at a slight overpay.

    The Oilers have NO other options other than him and the crazy Russian or they take another gamble on an unknown goalie. Might as well go with the one you know (who is also a local boy) then another unknown/unproven goalie.

    It has been a long time since I was nervous for a goaltender to maintain a shutout instead of letting in everything that gets directed at him.

  14. book¡je says:

    I wonder if when Katz found out that there was a goalie from Spruce Grove if he demanded that MacT get him. If we see them sign someone who is a Dr. to be a defenseman, we can be sure of the plan.

  15. book¡je says:

    As per signing him, I would do whatever it takes even if it involves an overpay. I think you need to take the risk. You can always buy him out in a year or two. Probably $3 million for 3 years gets it done. It’s probably worth the risk.

  16. FastOil says:

    I couldn’t watch the game but noticed a few things – Larsen played and Marincin took a roughing penalty against 6’5″ 225 Burns. Man I like that kid.

    Is it a coincidence that the Oilers took a beating like that with Larsen and Nultz both in? They both seem to have The Knack of decent Corgis and terrible defensive play. Again I didn’t watch the game, I am assuming nothing changed there.

  17. Dee Dee says:

    In 1981 a young Oilers squad went into the heart of Hockey’s Mecca and slayed the dragon, and for that Andy Moog’s performance will always be very special to me.

    I feel you have to separate regular season performances from playoffs because the pressure is so much higher, and the you have sudden death playoff overtime where it goes up even another notch.

    Best thing about last night was watching the team rob a Stanlry Cup contender, been a while since the Oil have done that. I just hope it doesn’t allow the team to descend into sloppier river boat hockey if they feel their keeper can stand on his head.

  18. Woodguy says:

    My first post in the GDT had this:

    Oilers in for a tough test tonight.

    Good goaltending may hold them in a game and if Scrivens starts you can actually have confidence that it may happen.

    Ha!

    Great thing about Scrivens is that he’ll probably sign for 2 years at $1.5MM or so given the goalie market.

    Scrivens still has a short NHL history (.921 in 55 games) so I can see MacT being hesitant in giving out a contract with term.

    This may however, be an opportunity to buy some years are a very good price.

    I can see Scrivens signing a 4 year $2MM/yr deal given that he’s never made more than $625K/yr. Saying no to security like $8MM over 4 years would be very tough for a guy who hasn’t been paid yet (in NHL terms)

    This reminds me of the summer of 2009 (man, where does the time go?) when a bunch of us thought that Tambellini should sign Anderson after he put up 2 solid years with FLA 56 games and a .929 or so.

    The idea was to run JDD and Andeson as a tandem and see who won the #1 job, or re-sign Rollie and pick up Anderson as his back up.

    Instead he signed an aging Russian vet because the wanted “a proven winner”. Lordy.

    MacT is in a similar situation.

    After the goaltending debacle this year, you *know* he wants to sign a dependable vet as G1.

    Front runners are Hillier and Halak, both who have re-occuring injury issues.

    Both are career .917 goalies and neither have put up .917 or better in a few years and you can’t be sure what you are getting going forward.

    The one thing that eases my mind about this is that MacT traded for Scrivens so you know he has an eye on signing him.

    The question is whether he tries to get him short term or long term and whether he makes it attractive enough for Scrivens to stay.

    If Scrivens starts 20 of the last 26 games (they only have 3 back to back in the last 26) and puts up a .920 or better, I think MacT has to seriously consider giving him 4 years and going with him.

  19. justDOit says:

    That Scrivens performance is up there with Tugnutt v Bruins: March 21st, 1991. Quebec’s Ron Tugnutt stopped 70 Bruins shots, including 12 in overtime, to give the Nordiques a 3-3 tie at Boston.

    So based on that performance, I believe 8 x $6M should get him signed. Can’t see anything wrong with that. Nope.

  20. FastOil says:

    book¡je:
    As per signing him, I would do whatever it takes even if it involves an overpay.I think you need to take the risk. You can always buy him out in a year or two.Probably $3 million for 3 years gets it done.It’s probably worth the risk.

    In his previous to Edmonton NHL games (only 51) I have him at .917 which is below league average I believe. Perhaps it would be better for him to sign at a discount because without the Oilers he would not be an NHL record holder.

  21. Oiler fan says:

    If Scrivens can be 80% of last night
    on a fairly regular basis that’s easily
    worth paying big money for.
    If the kids can grab 6 mil per year there’s no
    reason we shouldn’t pay 4-5.5 mil/per.
    Don’t cheap out on this guy if he proves to be really steady.
    We need that in spades and have for a while.
    A goalie who could be a huge part of anchoring this team down
    is priceless. We wait and see.
    The bonus is….no doubt he grew up dreaming of playing in this jersey. Also priceless.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Also,

    Nice to see the Oilers following the NHL concussion protocol with Ference:

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/01/29/edmonton-oilers-captain-andrew-ference-following-leagues-concussion-recovery-program

    Given the number of players who have played soon after head injuries, I don’t think following the NHL protocol is always a given.

  23. Snowman says:

    I was thinking something in the range of 3-3.75 for 2-3 depending on how he goes the rest of the way. I’m even ok with an over pay as long as the term is reasonable. If there’s a chance he’s an elite goalie (and I do think that’s a possiblility, improving save % every season in the nhl so far. 23 games played and a .937 this season doesn’t seem like a fluke) you have to at least pay him to find out. It would be awful to miss on a franchise changing goalie you got for a 3rd rounder. If he’s solid for the rest of the year give him the money and find out if he can win the cup when the young guns are ready.

    Also, if MacT does decide he’s a 1A goalie, the list then becomes 1B goalie, 2C and 1LD for the summer.

  24. cc says:

    Just a quick thought here, three very good played games and three wins. Who on defense is missing?? The same guy that was on the ice for two goals in 16 seconds last spring.

    Marincin played fantastic, great to see Larsen in the game, both Schultz played very well, and on that note I really believe Nick is earning his keep recently.

    No defense is perfect and we still have a ways to go but the reality is that goals are scored because mistakes are made, and last night our defense made mistakes but we had a quality goaltender to back us up. This guy may be the ticket.

    Place Hemsky on that second or third line and we are even better.

    One final thought , I hope Hendricks if fine. He’s a beauty!!

  25. book¡je says:

    FastOil,

    Yes, I guess I should qualify that with the need to have some inside perspective regarding whatever the Oilers know about the Goalie. Furthermore, as Woodguy notes, the goalie market is good for buyers right now, so maybe this could get done for a lot less.

    I guess what I am saying is that given the cost involved, taking a risk is warranted given the importance of the position to the team and the ability to buy out the contract if needed. The benefit of getting a moderatly paid average or very good goalie is huge. The costs of a buyout for a young goalie making less than $3 million is pretty minimal in the case that he turns into a flop. Even if that were the case (he struggles), he would likely be functional as a good NHL backup, albeit overpayed.

    Given the suggested struggles of finding a free agent to come to Edmonton, I would do whatever was needed to avoid letting him go to UFA.

  26. OilClog says:

    There was that game Cujo played in Detroit, 52 saves? Or something like that. Last night was the first game since then my jaw has been left hanging by a Oilers goalie. Incredible

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    SoCaloil:
    Why is Bill Ranford not with the old boys club
    He’s obviously doing all the right things for LA

    The same could be said of Huddy.

    Both have found success elsewhere. Of course, bring them back and you get the stark Oiler fan mix of “boys on the bus YES” and “boys on the bus NO”

  28. goldenchild says:

    That was like watching opening weekend of college football when Alabama plays Southwest Central Arkansas Technical College. Looking at the Parkatti numbers , some of them (Perron, Gagner, Marancin) don’t even seem possible.
    Pretty fun to watch a goalie stop all the pucks he was supposed to and then also stop all the pucks that he has no business saving, quality goaltending in October could have had the season look quite different, hopefully Scrivens helps right that ship for next year.

    To any of the old timey guys, maybe I am remembering wrong but didn’t Ron Tugnutt stop like 60 pucks and still lose for us? I remember my cousin and I calling him Eddie Lebec for like 5 years after that.

  29. PaperKurtRussell says:

    Wow, I’m impressed boys… 20-something comments in and no Gagner bashing! Finally, we focus on the positive. I was thinking about Scrivens contract too. Based on above comments, it appears that he is anointed as our starter for next year (i.e. paid as a starter). Is this wise?? Don’t get me wrong, he is great so far, but we were all in love with Garon a few years ago too! Goalies are tricky, and only a few in the league are consistently great.

  30. rickithebear says:

    We know that shots at even
    league average goal success rate.
    0-10 ft 17%
    10-20 ft 23%
    20-30 ft 8-9%
    >30 ft 3.5-4%

    A good defensive team will restrict the shots inside 20ft to less than 27%

    Ben Scrivens in TOR
    was a
    0-10 ft 12%
    10-20 ft 14%
    20-30 >9%
    >30 ft 4%

    He is one of the best golaies inside 20 ft.
    average 20 ft out.

    in the 3 games at home Scrivens has faced
    121 shots.
    100 @ even
    19 on PK
    2 on PP

    of the even shots.
    0-10 ft 6 shots 0 golas .72G expected 1.12 league average
    10-20 ft 7 shots 1 G .98G expected 1.61 G league average
    20-30 ft 18 shots 0 G 1.76 G expected 1.5GA league average
    > 30 ft 69 shots 2 G 2. 76 expected 2.41 G league average

    scrivens would be expected to give up 6 G
    he has given up 3G though his performance 20 ft in is the statistical norm.
    with slightly improved results from 20 ft out.

    The key is location of shots 13% of the shots faced are 20 ft in.
    Not the league elite of 27% or less.
    13%
    2 times less less than the Bostons, LA, Etc.

    Congratulations Ben for being your norm 20 ft in.
    Congratulations Ben for stopping the low % shots.

    Congratulations D. 13%

    13% amazing!

  31. Woodguy says:

    FastOil: In his previous to Edmonton NHL games (only 51) I have him at .917 which is below league average I believe. Perhaps it would be better for him to sign at a discount because without the Oilers he would not be an NHL record holder.

    Here’s the breakdown:

    2011-2012 MAPLE LEAFS 12gp 0.903
    2012-2013 MAPLE LEAFS 20gp 0.915
    2013-2014 KINGS 19gp 0.931
    2013-2014 OILERS 4gp 0.955
    NHL TOTALS 55gp 0.921

    If you discount his rookie year, he’s put up a .926 in 43 games.

    I you don’t discount them, he’s a .921

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    ASkoreyko: I don’t see why they wouldn’t at least give him Dubnyk money.
    Scrivens is almost at exactly the same place in his career that Devan was when he got $3.5Mx2.

    That was a bad deal. Even DD boosters saw that. Too much $$ for a guy still trying to earn his stripes.

    You have to put the goaltending market in Hollywood terms.

    Even in Hollywood most of the working actors, even really good ones, don’t make that much money (relative to the perception of Hollywood salaries, not to your pipefitter cousin). Then there is a tiny % of people given outsized money, usually based on prior performances.

    You have to try and ignore the top earners when looking at the market. In those terms DD’s contract was a huge overpay.

  33. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: Here’s the breakdown:

    2011-2012MAPLE LEAFS12gp0.903
    2012-2013MAPLE LEAFS20gp0.915
    2013-2014KINGS19gp0.931
    2013-2014OILERS4gp0.955NHL TOTALS55gp0.921

    If you discount his rookie year, he’s put up a .926 in 43 games.

    I you don’t discount them, he’s a .921

    I did some rough trend analysis on this data and by my calculations in 2016-17, he should be at about a 1.09sv%. That would be incredible! Sign him now!

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    FastOil:
    I couldn’t watch the game but noticed a few things – Larsen played and Marincin took a roughing penalty against 6’5″ 225 Burns. Man I like that kid.

    Is it a coincidence that the Oilers took a beating like that with Larsen and Nultz both in? They both seem to have The Knack of decent Corgis and terrible defensive play. Again I didn’t watch the game, I am assuming nothing changed there.

    It was more like Burns was roughing up Marincin who pushed back somewhat (agreed here though good to see) and the ref took both to task.

    I wouldn’t say either Larsen or NSchultz are corsi darlings.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=EDM&f7=10-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

  35. book¡je says:

    goldenchild:
    That was like watching opening weekend of college football when Alabama plays Southwest Central Arkansas Technical College. Looking at the Parkatti numbers , some of them (Perron, Gagner, Marancin) don’t even seem possible.
    Pretty fun to watch a goalie stop all the pucks he was supposed to and then also stop all the pucks that he has no business saving, quality goaltending in October could have had the season look quite different, hopefully Scrivens helps right that ship for next year.

    To any of the old timey guys, maybe I am remembering wrong but didn’t Ron Tugnutt stop like 60 pucks and still lose for us? I remember my cousin and I calling himEddie Lebec for like 5 years after that.

    He Stopped 70 shots and 3 got by him in a 3-3 tie with the Bruins. Imagine what 73 shots in a game would look like. We need to remember those days when we talk about this version of the Oilers being the worst Oiler team in history.

  36. Oiler fan says:

    cc

    I was also thinking “who’s missing on defence”

  37. goldenchild says:

    book¡je: He Stopped 70 shots and 3 got by him in a 3-3 tie with the Bruins. Imagine what 73 shots in a game would look like. We need to remember those days when we talk about this version of the Oilers being the worst Oiler team in history.

    Thanks Bookie,70 saves in a regular season game, just crazy. I wanna say that was an ITV game becasue i do remember watching it and your right that 92′-93 team was the worst! Peter Klima led them with 48 points, in that era 48 points? Crazy!

  38. Pouzar says:

    So we trading Gagner again?
    Friedman says he won’t work as a winger?

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think the contract talk should be put on hold after last night. It’s clear from the trade that MacT is going to take a run at Scrivens (assuming Scrivens can play out the stretch reasonably well).

    But, he can’t do so in the aftermath of this euphoric haze. We have to remember that Gs historically don’t get paid that much as relatively unproved backups (which is still what Scrivens is).

    I mean obviously let’s talk about it… but I think we need to realize we’ll be in a much better position to do so after MacT has seen him play 15-20 games.

  40. justDOit says:

    goldenchild,

    Tugnutt was with Quebec when he survived that barrage of 73 shots to earn a tie.

  41. Oiler fan says:

    SoCaloil,

    I wonder if he would consider coming here.
    Freddy Chabot has been crapping the bed for years in my opinion.

  42. Ryan says:

    PaperKurtRussell:
    Wow, I’m impressed boys… 20-something comments in and no Gagner bashing!Finally, we focus on the positive.I was thinking about Scrivens contract too.Based on above comments, it appears that he is anointed as our starter for next year (i.e. paid as a starter).Is this wise??Don’t get me wrong, he is great so far, but we were all in love with Garon a few years ago too!Goalies are tricky, and only a few in the league are consistently great.

    Lowetide was merciful so he politely threw Gager under the bus with “Gagner looked like road kill.”

    I guess it kinda took the edge off reading that for myself, so there’s not much more to add.

  43. book¡je says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yes, no rush to get it done until the day before free agency. With that said, if he is willing to sign for cheep earlier, then there is no problem with doing so.

  44. goldenchild says:

    justDOit,

    Jesus, age is a mutha*** My brain is remembering things that didnt happen.
    As you were

  45. justDOit says:

    goldenchild,

    I wish I could say you were alone on that – I googled it this morning, and waddayknow, it’s still fresh!

  46. Caramel Obvious says:

    Big range in expected prices for Scrivens.

    Assuming the NHL market continues to overpay for proven commodities I think it is impossible to overpay Scrivens.

    AHL performance counts and it is good. The NHL performance has been even better.

    3 X 3 million is a slamdunk steal for the Oilers. Less than that is gravy.

  47. Oiler fan says:

    Oh and by the way,
    I despise John Shannon. Can’t stand hearing that guy speak.
    Comes across like such a righteous, pompous, arrogant, snotbag know it all.
    I can’t stand the way he talks and his hockey sense
    Is very very questionable in my mind.
    Every night I hear this jackass flapping his gums on Sportsnet I just wanna change the channel.
    Case in point was the first intermission last night,
    “Ben scrivens is at best a good backup goaltender
    In the National hockey league, Craig McTavish needs to go get another goaltender to take that 1a spot”
    Then Scrivens goes and plays how he did for the next 2 periods.
    This fella hacks away at the oil for anything and everything
    But I don’t see him ever mentioning any positives and there have been a fair few.

    He reminds me of a poor mans Gilbert Godfrey.

  48. Ryan says:

    For guys like GMoney who lament the “Oilers disadvantage” with free agents–crappy weather / even crappier team.

    Look at a team like the San Jose Sharks. They have every advantage in signing free agents–winning team, beaches and babes, but who have they signed over the past four / five years in terms of big name free agents?

    Speaking of the San Jose Sharks, I’ve often wondered why other teams haven’t tried to poach some of the brains from this organization. By all accounts including stuff MC79hockey has cranked out over the years, they’re one of the smartest organizations in hockey and seem have have been ahead of the curve with all forms of analytics.

    Even their coach with him rattling off about 100 shot attempts after the last game. I’ve missed listening to Eakins but I’ve never heard him mention anything Corgi related…

  49. book¡je says:

    I just watched the post game interview with Scrivens. I changed my mind – sign the guy now. I think Scrivens and Hendricks are as much about having a vocal team and attitude as it is about on the ice impact.

  50. book¡je says:

    justDOit:
    goldenchild,

    Tugnutt was with Quebec when he survived that barrage of 73 shots to earn a tie.

    That’s funny, I guess I associate all things pathetic with the Oilers and sometimes forget that other teams have managed to sink to the same level.

  51. DBO says:

    the Anderson comparison is apt, and he is younger. I stumped for him when he was a UFA (call it the Roloson idea). A bridge 2 or 3 year deal for around $ 2 million is a smart bet, even if they choose to chase a Hiller or someone else. The cap going up and we have money so make it happen.

    Now getting a top end dman is still the main issue, and nothing like a bit more two way depth up front with some size. Kulemin would still be my target and a better two way centre at 2C would also be nice. Small wingers are less an issue in the dzone, but small centres get murdered more often then not.

    At this point just improving our D is enough to get us a shot at the post season. Another Ference to go with Marincin, Schultz and Petry (and the old Ference) means 5 real NHL dmen. I actually would like to see Marincin with Schultz the younger like the AHL last year. Marincin’s calm feet and presence would off set the Younger’s swashbuckling ways.

    ???-Petry
    Marincin-Schultz
    Ference-???
    Klefbom

  52. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I think the contract talk should be put on hold after last night. It’s clear from the trade that MacT is going to take a run at Scrivens (assuming Scrivens can play out the stretch reasonably well).

    But, he can’t do so in the aftermath of this euphoric haze. We have to remember that Gs historically don’t get paid that much as relatively unproved backups (which is still what Scrivens is).

    I mean obviously let’s talk about it… but I think we need to realize we’ll be in a much better position to do so after MacT has seen him play 15-20 games.

    This is all true. That said, Scrivens has a much better track record than Dubnyk at every level of pro hockey. I’d much rather Scrivens at $3M than Halak at $5M.

    I also think you get a discount for signing players in-season. The closer you get to free agency the easier it is for the player to be patient.

  53. Pouzar says:

    I’ve liked Scrivens for a while and I’ll be sick if we don’t get him under contract.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Hull…yer starting to annoy me.

  55. cc says:

    With regards to signing Scriven’s;

    I think a similar comparable is Craig Anderson after he left Florida in 2009. Anderson had good numbers (.935% in 07-08 & .924% in 08-09) as a backup but wasn’t a number one. Anderson signed a 2 year contract worth 1.825 with the Av’s in 2009 off-season.

    I think that a starting point (factoring in salary increases) for negotiations for Scrivens would be roughly 2 million per year for 2 years.

  56. goldenchild says:

    book¡je: That’s funny, I guess I associate all things pathetic with the Oilers and sometimes forget that other teams have managed to sink to the same level.

    This is all making me feel better about myself. Thanks fellas

    BTW that 92-93 team is still the worst!
    Bill Ranford 3.84 GAA .884 SV
    Ron Tugnutt 4.17 GAA .879 SV
    Those numbers are not made up by my brain this time, I looked them up!
    And Petr Klima did lead the team with 48. So um it could be worse and it has been.

  57. justDOit says:

    book¡je: That’s funny, I guess I associate all things pathetic with the Oilers and sometimes forget that other teams have managed to sink to the same level.

    Even funnier – I read that as, ‘stink to the same level.’ I guess the extra letter changes nothing.

  58. Caramel Obvious says:

    cc:
    With regards to signing Scriven’s;

    I think a similar comparable is Craig Anderson after he left Florida in 2009.Anderson had good numbers (.935% in 07-08 & .924% in 08-09) as a backup but wasn’t a number one.Anderson signed a 2 year contract worth 1.825 with the Av’s in 2009 off-season.

    I think that a starting point (factoring in salary increases) for negotiations for Scrivens would be roughly 2 million per year for 2 years.

    Anderson is a decent comparable. Except Scrivens numbers are better at both the AHL and NHL level and salary inflation is larger than you’ve estimated.

    I think it takes at least 2 x 3M which I would gladly pay. I’d also keep tacking on years so long as he was willing.

  59. Ducey says:

    Anyone else surprised to see Kyle Okposo at #6 in NHL scoring? Drafted in 2006 and now 25. Sometimes you just have to let guys mature.

    Scott Cullen has a nice story about each teams goalie situation. There are plenty of them around.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=442498

  60. Pouzar says:

    Ducey:
    Anyone else surprised to see Kyle Okposo at #6 in NHL scoring?Drafted in 2006 and now 25.Sometimes you just have to let guys mature.

    Scott Cullen has a nice story about each teams goalie situation.There are plenty of them around.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=442498

    I was just looking at that.

    We have a hockey pool every year. 12 guys 12 rounds and he wasn’t even drafted LOL

    I agree…let em mature

  61. Lois Lowe says:

    That win felt good. I can’t remember the last time the Oilers won a game that they had no business winning.

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    A few thoughts on goaltending:

    1) Amazing what a difference it makes to have a goalie capable of actually stealing a game. Hopefully, Oiler fans can resist the urge to bully Ben’s wife on Twitter and the audition continues towards a successful (albeit reasonable) contract for the Spruce Grove lad. He’s definitely paid his dues.

    On a side note, I live in the Grove and drag my wife to a fair few Saints game, and I’m going to get no end of stick from her over Ben’s play in the bigs. Everytime we go to the local games, she’s always making comments like “how come the Oilers can’t play with this kind of energy and grit?” “they should sign half this team!” etc. I consistently and diplomatically reply that it’s not that easy, the NHL is the most competitive league in the world, etc. And then a former Saints tender goes and sets an all-time shutout save record. Beauty.

    2) About 10 games into this season, I was very critical of MacT for not addressing the starting goaltending, essentially of the belief that we already knew the mediocrity we had with Dubnyk and this failure to address THE most important position on the team essentially made this a lost season. I suggested that even acquiring Tim Thomas as a UFA would’ve been a better option than Dubnyk. I was almost universally criticized on this board for suggesting that, feedback being that Dubnyk would return to previous performance levels (great, more mediocrity!) with many suggesting Thomas’ save pct or record would not be appreciably better than Dubnyk’s this season. I think it’s fair to say there’s enough of a sample size in now to indicate those assessments were wrong and Thomas would in fact have been a far better option to start the season than Dubnyk.

    Tim Thomas FLA 33GP 2.75 .912 14 15 3
    Devan Dubnyk NAS 34GP 3.43 .891 11 18 3

    3) Going forward, who would be the ideal netminding partner for Scrivens? I like the idea of a 1A, 1B with 2 young guys pushing each other. Should the Oil make a play for Justin Peters who looks to be trending the right direction in Carolina? Has anyone saw him good?

    Now, let’s move onto to getting rid of Gagner who fits squarely in the same category as Dubnyk (i.e prospect trending down) and get that mythical two way 2C that can take on the Joe Thorntons of this world.

  63. GriffCity says:

    Any news on Hendricks? He took a pretty good shot there and not sure if he banged his head off the ice or not. He has been an effective addition these past few games, I hope he is not out for long.

  64. FastOil says:

    Woodguy: Here’s the breakdown:

    2011-2012MAPLE LEAFS12gp0.903
    2012-2013MAPLE LEAFS20gp0.915
    2013-2014KINGS19gp0.931
    2013-2014OILERS4gp0.955NHL TOTALS55gp0.921

    If you discount his rookie year, he’s put up a .926 in 43 games.

    I you don’t discount them, he’s a .921

    I left out the Oilers for perspective and got the number I did. Nothing about the Oilers is normal for the NHL, yet. I would keep him for average money for what looks like an average goalie but not at a premium given the choice. If he keeps trending up pay him what he’s worth when the time comes. Being average is an improvement for the Oilers.

  65. thejonrmcleod says:

    I think we’ve lost Richard Cloutier.

  66. oilersfan says:

    Lost in the euphoria over last night is the desolation that Marincin and Petry had cf% around 12% and that the Gagner line was below 10%.

    Does it get much worse than that?

    I have the game on pvr but frankly would rather not watch it. Anybody here see what went wrong with those 5 players? Were they tired from the third in four nights? Or major brain cramps?

    can’t figure out how Marincin is over 50% for 17 games, many over 60%, then goes to 12%

  67. goldenchild says:

    I don’t know who Richard Cloutier is but he doesnt sound like a guy who has his finger on the pulse of the league.

  68. Pouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    Lost in the euphoria over last night is the desolation that Marincin and Petry had cf% around 12% and that the Gagner line was below 10%.

    Does it get much worse than that?

    I have the game on pvr but frankly would rather not watch it. Anybody here see what went wrong with those 5 players? Were they tired from the third in four nights? Or major brain cramps?

    can’t figure out how Marincin is over 50% for 17 games, many over 60%, then goes to 12%

    I wouldn’t worry about it. The whole team sucked. Yes, those 5 guys sucked a little more.

  69. Surly says:

    Ducey:

    Scott Cullen has a nice story about each teams goalie situation.There are plenty of them around.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=442498

    From the piece:

    “If any team needs a goaltending upgrade, it’s the Flames and, with a new general manager, there isn’t any loyalty due to those in-house.”

    Hopefully we don’t watch Calgary snap him up for decent $s (Burke is familiar with Scrivens). It’ll be a Curtis Glencross situation all over again.

    I’m more sensitive to term than $s for anything MacT would offer. I’d rather overpay on a 1 or 2 year deal than try for a better $ number on a 3 or 4 year deal. Just too much uncertainty with Goaltender performance.

  70. russ99 says:

    Also, we only had 6 shots from forwards not on the kid line (leading the charge with quick zone entries leading to shots on goal) and 4 of them were from Gordon.

    You can’t win a lot of games without at least 2 scoring lines pulling their weight.

    Scrivens stole this one, and it’s nice to finally be able to say that about an Oilers goalie.

  71. HeavySig says:

    While I am happy that we now have Scrivens and so far he has delivered more than I expected; I am not overly confident he will stick around when other teams come calling this summer. He was available as a UFA before out of the NCAA and Toronto ended up winning that auction. I have no inside info, but Scrivens was a known enough commodity that the pipeline show featured him at least 8 times in their blog. If Guy Flaming was pumping the guy that much, wouldn’t you think the Oil had him on their radar back then and may have even made an offer? I seem to recall Scrivens signing with TO having something to do with his brother signing there at the same time, iirc.

    http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/2009/01/top-5-tuesdays-ncaa-goalies-you-dont.html

    Disclaimer: I am the Heavy Fuel commenter at the bottom of the comments bringing up Scrivens Spruce Grove Saints history. I had advocated for his UFA signing for years as a low risk option that could bring big returns. Flaming may have even commented that I should shut up about it since he was hoping the same and that the Oilers could steal him.

    Did Scrivens talk to the Oilers back then? It would be interesting to know the answer to that question, since it might be a hint at what will take place next summer. The better he performs for the rest of the season, the more important he becomes to the Oilers and the more doors he potentially will open elsewhere.

    I don’t know how bad he wants to play for Edmonton, but I am pretty sure he is too smart to sign a bargain contract just for the job security.

  72. VanOil says:

    Ben Scrivens backed up by / competing with Frederik Andersen next year seems like reasonable bet. I would prefer 2 likely #1s on reasonable contracts than a single role of the dice on one most likely (Hiller, Miller) on a huge contracts that last for decades.

    It is all shooting craps on goalies. I would prefer two rolls and a cutie like the Princess to blow on them. Betting small dollars keeps you in the game better than the Philly system.

  73. B S says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Now, let’s move onto to getting rid of Gagner who fits squarely in the same category as Dubnyk (i.e prospect trending down) and get that mythical two way 2C that can take on the Joe Thorntons of this world.

    Thomas has off-ice ‘issues’ (according to most of his bruin’s teammates, if it’s actually in question). Whether that impacts the locker-room or not is unknown, but given that the Oilers seem to be psychologically sensitive it could have been counter-productive to bring him in. Also, comparing Thomas and Dubnyk should be reserved until Dubnyk has a sizeable sample with Nashville.

    With regards to the quoted part (the 2nd half of it anyway) I hope that was sarcasm. The only 2C or potential 2C in the league that I can think of who could hold his own against Jumbo Joe is Malkin.

  74. GriffCity says:

    Let Scrivens win a couple more games on his own before we crown this guy. He played amazing last night, AMAZING, but still that is a pretty small sample size to start talking about signing him, especially long term. Richard Bachman played one great game against LA as well this year, doesn’t mean he is the next Hasek. Everyone in Canada saw what a great job Scrivens did last night, I was lucky enough to be in attendance for this one. If I were in charge I would play Scrivens as much as possible now until the end of the season and see how that goes. If he plays amazing or even really well during that stretch then sign him. Just don’t get all excited over one game. Even Gagner had 8 pts one game, doesn’t mean they should just give him millions of doll….oh wait, woops, too late.

  75. thejonrmcleod says:

    LT, maybe you don’t want to reveal your secrets, but I’d be interested in hearing how you schedule your days to churn out so much blog material every day.

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    B S: Thomas has off-ice ‘issues’ (according to most of his bruin’s teammates, if it’s actually in question). Whether that impacts the locker-room or not is unknown, but given that the Oilers seem to be psychologically sensitive it could have been counter-productive to bring him in. Also, comparing Thomas and Dubnyk should be reserved until Dubnyk has a sizeable sample with Nashville.

    Well, they ended up having to bring in a guy with alleged ‘psychological’ issues with Brzgalov anyway so I’m not sure that’s an iron clad argument against signing Thomas. What about the psychological issues of this young team having to play in front of a sieve?

    For Eakins, I think that early window of establishing his system and credibility with the players was huge, and Dubnyk almost singlehandedly derailed that with his brutal play. Apparently, even recently, there’s been some hardcore Dubie fans suggesting the Oil had given up on him too early. Hopefully we’ll see the last of that commentary now that they’ve had a glimpse of what elite goaltending actually looks like.

  77. Caramel Obvious says:

    The small sample size–unproven talk needs to stop.

    One, the sample size isn’t that small unless you think the AHL doesn’t matter. And if you think that, you’re wrong.

    Two, goalie performance varies a lot. We all know that. It’s true of proven goalies too.

    Third, if Scrivens had a larger sample size and was more proven he would cost a lot more. Signing a guy on the basis of AHL stats while he remains unproven is precisely how you get a discount. And I say 3 years x $3M is a pretty big discount in comparison to what a free agent goalie of similar quality would cost.

    For instance, I think Halak is a better goalie than Scrivens. Is he $2M a year for many more years better? Do you think you can get Halak for less than $5M?

    For instance, I know Scrivens is a better goalie than Crawford. How much did Crawford cost?

    Sign the guy for whatever it costs and move on. He doesn’t have the reputation right now and hence there is almost no way you can overpay.

  78. AZOIL says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Completely agree, it was a great game! Let the season play out and see what else he can do and judge him from a larger body of work. Honestly I think with our defense he will go downhill a little and this might help us get him for cheaper. I would also be ecstatic if he does the complete opposite and stands on his head, then we get some decent D in front of him and voila!

    Who else do we know of in recent history that didn’t have a huge sample size like Bivens here? Did they sign Anderson or Bishop right away or do a bridge contract with them for a couple years to see what they had?

  79. cc says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Scriven’s numbers aren’t really that much better than Anderson’s when you factor in the same age.

    Scrivens
    Age League Games SV%
    24 AHL 33 .924
    25 AHL 39 .926
    25 NHL 12 .903
    26 NHL 20 .915
    26 AHL 22 .917
    27 NHL 23 .937

    Anderson
    Age Leage Games SV%
    24 NHL 29 .886
    25 AHL 34 .919
    25 NHL 5 .931
    26 NHL 17 .935
    27 NHL 31 .924

    Also, the cost of inflation is roughly 1.25. So I’m guessing the negotiating should start at around 2.25 – 2.5. I’d be fine with a 3 or 4 year deal, if we signed him around 2.75 – 3 million.

  80. verdad says:

    We can all congratulate and admire Ben Scrivens for last night.
    But the cold light to day should bring all back to priority number one and two for the Oilers – fire Lowe and flush Gagner.
    Of the two priorities, flushing Gagner would have more impact. How can a player who has spent seven years in the NHL play like he did last night? i
    Moreover, why did this organization not recognize five years ago that he brings virtually nothing to the dynamic of a winning hockey team.
    One might hope that MacTavish is offering Vancouver Hemsky and Gagner for Kesler.

  81. russ99 says:

    verdad,

    And Gillis slams down the phone and laughs.

    Getting NHL quality defensemen (plural) is a much more pressing concern than flushing Gagner.

    And sadly, MacT should have sold high on Sam this summer, along with signing a few NHL defensemen dirt cheap before camp.

    Frankly, if we’re getting only 2 shots from forwards not named Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle or Gordon and allowing 100 scoring chances, the systems still ain’t working, so let’s not anoint Eakins yet.

  82. AZOIL says:

    VanOil,

    Agree completely. Get two potential number 1′s and sign them both for what it would cost to sign a proven no. 1 goalie that could just get injured, be in decline, etc.

    I would actually really like it if they could get that Martin Jones guy out of LA too, let those two battle it out. LA won’t let that happen though!

    Maybe get the one you mentioned or sign Khudobin out of CAR and let them compete.

  83. Henry says:

    oilersfan:
    Lost in the euphoria over last night is the desolation that Marincin and Petry had cf% around 12% and that the Gagner line was below 10%.

    Does it get much worse than that?

    I have the game on pvr but frankly would rather not watch it. Anybody here see what went wrong with those 5 players? Were they tired from the third in four nights? Or major brain cramps?

    can’t figure out how Marincin is over 50% for 17 games, many over 60%, then goes to 12%

    These guys were bad last night. They also matched up frequently with Marleau Burns and Thornton and rarely touched the puck.

  84. icecastles says:

    Been following Scrivens for a bit over a year and was pretty thrilled to see Edmonton get him. What trule sold me on him though was a comment Eakins made after his win prior to this one, I`ve been sounding off earlier in the week (Sunday, iirc).

    I have been sounding off for a long time on the myth thatt a goalie`s only job is to stop the puck. There are a number of aspects to the position but most overlooked is his role as a communicator. Due to his placement on the ice and the fact that he sees much more of the play develop than he skaters can, a good goalie can and should be constantly talking to his teammates, calling out plays, quarterbacking both defense and breakouts and giving heads-ups. Roli was brilliant for this, and I`ve rarely seen a goalie as quiet as Dubnyk. As I said in the past, I think his quietness and lack of confidence had a lot to do with why our defense looked so horrible for much of the year.

    Scrivens is a communicator. Eakins commented that he is constantly calling out to his teammates when they`re in the D-zone and to my mind, this is absolutely huge. Especially to a defensive corps that has been shown to get turned around and discombobulated.

    Last night was mind-bendingly great (and it wasn`t just the quantity of saves – there were some incredible acrobatics on display too). But what I love about the new guy is that there is more there than just the blocks. If he can help his defensemen out, that is of enormous value. The fact that he is the right age to mature with the cluster is a bonus.

    And on top of all that, he has pretty good hair. Not easy when that goalie mask is messing with it.

  85. FastOil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: It was more like Burns was roughing up Marincin who pushed back somewhat (agreed here though good to see) and the ref took both to task.

    I wouldn’t say either Larsen or NSchultz are corsi darlings.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f5=EDM&f7=10-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

    No but they both have surprised me in individual games when the numbers are posted that relatively aren’t too bad but the eyes say the opposite. Like last night both in the top 5 for the team although I don’t know how they played yesterday.

  86. oilersfan says:

    Caramel obvious

    re small sample size.

    I thought in 2008 that Mathieu Garon was a top 5 NHL goalie. He looked that way for about 20 games.

    Not so much.

    How about Dubnyk the last half of a few seasons? seems to me he stole a game in SJ 2 years ago when it didn’t matter, oilers outshot 45-20 or so and he let in one or zero goals (can’t remember)

    Not so much.

    Jim Carey also says HI

  87. icecastles says:

    verdad: But the cold light to day should bring all back to priority number one and two for the Oilers – fire Lowe and flush Gagner.

    Tell me Verdad, since it is top priority: will getting rid of Lowe allow us to score more goals, or are you thinking his has been of limited help on the penalty kill. Or perhaps he is just bad in the room (or the office I suppose, since he has no presence in the dressing room).

    Kevin Lowe does not play hockey anymore.

    Kevin Lowe is not the GM anymore.

    I agree its time for him to go. But if you think he *is* the problem, and that getting rid of him will make any meaningfull difference in terms of making the team better, you are putting emotion ahead of reason.

    There are higher priority moves than making revenge-based ones just to satisfy bitchy fans.

  88. Woodguy says:

    Goalies ranked by SV% with a minimum 5 games in the last 3 years in the NHL:

    Name – Games played – SV%
    Cory Schneider 90 0.931
    Tuukka Rask 99 0.929
    Ben Bishop 71 0.926
    Brian Elliott 84 0.926
    Henrik Lundqvist 146 0.925
    Jonathan Bernier 69 0.921
    Josh Harding 68 0.921
    Ben Scrivens 55 0.921
    Jimmy Howard 128 0.92
    Jonathan Quick 134 0.92
    Ryan Miller 137 0.919
    Mike Smith 146 0.919
    Jaroslav Halak 98 0.918
    Kari Lehtonen 139 0.918
    Roberto Luongo 114 0.918
    Pekka Rinne 125 0.918
    Craig Anderson 124 0.917
    Antti Niemi 156 0.917
    Tim Thomas 92 0.917
    Tomas Vokoun 68 0.917

    Scrivens ranks 8th

    I used 55 games as that is how many Scrivens has played.

    You can see again why MacT wanted Schneider so bad.

    Why NJD is endangering the playoff hopes by playing Brodeur is beyond me.

    Source: http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2012&year_max=2014&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=G&handed=&c1stat=games_goalie&c1comp=gt&c1val=55&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=save_pct

  89. icecastles says:

    oilersfan: I thought in 2008 that Mathieu Garon was a top 5 NHL goalie.

    You would have been a minority of 1, then.

  90. AZOIL says:

    - Anderson first did 2yrs/3.625 then signed a longer 4yr/12.75
    - Fasth 2yrs/5.8
    - Bishop 2yrs/4.6
    - Halak 4yrs/15 and I believe that was after his awesome run in the payoff’s for MTL.

    So all of these tell me paying him much more than 4-6 over 2 years isn’t needed no? A lot depends on how the season plays out. But do a reasonable 2-3 year contract and then if he is awesome give him what he deserves in 2-3 years once we have a really good size body of work.

  91. Caramel Obvious says:

    oilersfan:
    Caramel obvious

    re small sample size.

    I thought in 2008 that Mathieu Garon was a top 5 NHL goalie. He looked that way for about 20 games.

    Not so much.

    How about Dubnyk the last half of a few seasons? seems to me he stole a game in SJ 2 years ago when it didn’t matter, oilers outshot 45-20 or so and he let in one or zero goals (can’t remember)

    Not so much.

    Jim Carey also says HI

    Scrivens has a sample size larger and better than any of those guys. That’s a fact.

    Garon’s save percentage in 07-08 was .913

  92. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the same thing if you search the last 2 years with a minimum of 43 games played:

    Tuukka Rask 76 0.929
    Ben Bishop 61 0.928
    Cory Schneider 57 0.927
    Ben Scrivens 43 0.927
    Jonathan Bernier 53 0.924
    Sergei Bobrovsky 70 0.923
    Henrik Lundqvist 84 0.921
    Ryan Miller 76 0.921
    Craig Anderson 61 0.92
    Jimmy Howard 71 0.92
    James Reimer 57 0.919
    Corey Crawford 68 0.918
    Antti Niemi 88 0.918
    Marc-Andre Fleury 76 0.917
    Braden Holtby 69 0.916
    Kari Lehtonen 80 0.916
    Roberto Luongo 59 0.916
    Steve Mason 60 0.916
    Semyon Varlamov 77 0.915
    Carey Price 82 0.914

    Source: http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2013&year_max=2014&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=G&handed=&c1stat=games_goalie&c1comp=gt&c1val=43&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=save_pct

  93. Hammers says:

    Woodguy:
    My first post in the GDT had this:

    Oilers in for a tough test tonight.


    Good goaltending may hold them in a game and if Scrivens starts you can actually have confidence that it may happen.

    Ha!

    Great thing about Scrivens is that he’ll probably sign for 2 years at $1.5MM or so given the goalie market.

    Scrivens still has a short NHL history (.921 in 55 games) so I can see MacT being hesitant in giving out a contract with term.

    This may however, be an opportunity to buy some years are a very good price.

    I can see Scrivens signing a 4 year $2MM/yr deal given that he’s never made more than $625K/yr.Saying no to security like $8MM over 4 years would be very tough for a guy who hasn’t been paid yet (in NHL terms)

    This reminds me of the summer of 2009 (man, where does the time go?)when a bunch of us thought that Tambellini should sign Anderson after he put up 2 solid years with FLA 56 games and a .929 or so.

    The idea was to run JDD and Andeson as a tandem and see who won the #1 job,or re-sign Rollie and pick up Anderson as his back up.

    Instead he signed an aging Russian vet because the wanted “a proven winner”.Lordy.

    MacT is in a similar situation.

    After the goaltending debacle this year, you *know* he wants to sign a dependable vet as G1.

    Front runners are Hillier and Halak, both who have re-occuring injury issues.

    Both are career .917 goalies and neither have put up .917 or better in a few years and you can’t be sure what you are getting going forward.

    The one thing that eases my mind about this is that MacT traded for Scrivens so you know he has an eye on signing him.

    The question is whether he tries to get him short term or long term and whether he makes it attractive enough for Scrivens to stay.

    If Scrivens starts 20 of the last 26 games (they only have 3 back to back in the last 26) and puts up a .920 or better, I think MacT has to seriously consider giving him 4 years and going with him.

    Agree with signing him but a max of $2 mil for 3 years but I would only give him 16-18 games . He is not a Proven #1 goalie .

  94. fifthcartel says:

    Why not acquire Reimer and have Reimer/Scrivens split the starts next season?

  95. Hammers says:

    Oiler fan:
    Oh and by the way,
    I despise John Shannon. Can’t stand hearing that guy speak.
    Comes across like such a righteous, pompous, arrogant, snotbag know it all.
    I can’t stand the way he talks and his hockey sense
    Is very very questionable in my mind.
    Every night I hear this jackass flapping his gums on Sportsnet I just wanna change the channel.
    Case in point was the first intermission last night,
    “Ben scrivens is at best a good backup goaltender
    In the National hockey league, Craig McTavish needs to go get another goaltender to take that 1a spot”
    Then Scrivens goes and plays how he did for the next 2 periods.
    This fella hacks away at the oil for anything and everything
    But I don’t see him ever mentioning any positives and there have been a fair few.

    He reminds me of a poor mans Gilbert Godfrey.

    Unfortunately he is right . Scrivens is a proven backup not a proven starter . 1 game doesn’t get you there .

  96. Woodguy says:

    Hammers: Agree with signing him but a max of $2 mil for 3 years but I would only give him 16-18 games . He is not a Proven #1 goalie .

    Why play Brzy much if he isn’t coming back?

    Why not give him a #1′s work load to see how he does?

    Only playing him 16-18 games makes no sense in many different respects.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Hammers: Unfortunately he is right . Scrivens is a proven backup not a proven starter . 1 game doesn’t get you there .

    I’m looking at 55 games, not 1.

    If they give him 20 more by the end of the year they’ll have 75 games to look at.

  98. oilersfan says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    that save percentage for Garon in 2008 of .913 is for the entire season. he had a very strong 20 game run where it was closer to .930. He looked like a starter, then when given the chance, he wasn;t. in 02/03 he had 8 games in Montreal where he was .940 and 20 games in the ahl where he was .937. then in 03/04 he was .921 in Montreal over 19 games and .927 over 52 games in the AHL the year after.

    so in 2008 when he had such a great run with such good numbers just two years prior he
    seemed like a starter looked like a starter smelled like a starter

    ended up being barely a backup

  99. thejonrmcleod says:

    fifthcartel,

    I’ve said this as well. I think that plan might be wiser than trying to put together a big package to acquire someone like Schneider.

  100. Woodguy says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    fifthcartel,

    I’ve said this as well. I think that plan might be wiser than trying to put together a big package to acquire someone like Schneider.

    You won’t acquire a guy like Schneider from NJD.

    Oilers offered better than NJD, but VAN didn’t want to trade him in the division.

    Smart decision is to sign Scrivens for at least 2 years and pick up a starter in FA, there are lots this year, more starters than starter jobs, so its a buyer’s market.

    Giving up real assets for a goalie isn’t smart in this situation.

    If you are going with Scrivens, I like a guy with more of a track record than Reimer for the other goalie.

  101. thejonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    What starting goalies are on your wishlist?

  102. FastOil says:

    From Fear the Fin
    http://www.fearthefin.com/2014/1/30/5361402/scoring-chances-game-54-vs-edmonton

    “As mentioned in the recap, I do think the Sharks, despite controlling play for nearly the entire night, had a difficult time containing the Hall/RNH/Eberle line for Edmonton and the chances bear that out. They ripped the San Jose defense to shreds through the neutral zone on numerous occasions and the Oilers improbably outchanced the Sharks 9-7 with Nugent-Hopkins on the ice at even-strength. The issue for Edmonton is they were outchanced 18-1 at evens with their top center on the bench.”

  103. verdad says:

    IceCastles, firing Lower asap is vitally important.
    Any organziation needs to know that accountability is real.
    Lowe is an affront to that basic requirement for any effecitve organization.
    His blunders are numerous, his ego counterproductive and his salary unneeded.

    These players will play better knowing that poor performance has consequences.
    Why is this so hard for this blog to support and campaign for?

    What every Oiler fan has had to endure over the last seven years is overwhelmingly the fault of Lowe, starting with his blunder with Pronger, his false economy with Smyth , his drafting Gagner, hiring Tambellini,……..

  104. Doomoil says:

    cc:
    Just a quick thought here, three very good played games and three wins.Who on defense is missing??The same guy that was on the ice for two goals in 16 seconds last spring.

    Marincin played fantastic, great to see Larsen in the game, both Schultz played very well, and on that note I really believe Nick is earning his keep recently.

    No defense is perfect and we still have a ways to go but the reality is that goals are scored because mistakes are made, and last night our defense made mistakes but we had a quality goaltender to back us up.This guy may be the ticket.

    Place Hemsky on that second or third line and we are even better.

    One final thought , I hope Hendricks if fine.He’s a beauty!!

    Did you just call last nights debacle a well played game?

    Both the Schultz’ were crushed last night and everytime Larsen was an unmitigated disaster every time he was on the ice.

    Absolutely no one should be happy at all about last night except for childish glee about Scriven’s ridiculous game.

  105. Woodguy says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    What starting goalies are on your wishlist?

    I like Thomas. Right age to not have to give a long contract to like Hillier or Halak.

    I don’t mind Hillier or Halak, but really wouldn’t want to give them more than 2-3 years and they may get more than that.

    Miller is good, but would cost too much as he is the belle of this year’s ball.

    I fear that CAR is somehow going to get MacT to take Ward.

    I fear that a lot.

  106. Doomoil says:

    Woodguy,

    It’s a terrifying thought.

  107. Derek says:

    There are some unsettling comments in this here thread.

    I think you need to sign Scrivens for 3 or 4 years as cheap as you can get him as well as find a veteran this off season be it Halak, Hiller, Elliot etc. Goaltending is voodoo and to lock Scrivens up at 5+ per year right now is absolute insanity.

    Last nights game was ugly as they come. We all know the know the effects a back to back have on CF%, has anyone taken an in-depth look at similar numbers on the 3rd game in 4 nights?

    Almost everyone in the game looked terribly gassed, passing into each others skates because they didn’t have enough wind to think things out, waiting for the Sharks to push the play.

    FastOil:
    From Fear the Fin
    http://www.fearthefin.com/2014/1/30/5361402/scoring-chances-game-54-vs-edmonton

    “As mentioned in the recap, I do think the Sharks, despite controlling play for nearly the entire night, had a difficult time containing the Hall/RNH/Eberle line for Edmonton and the chances bear that out. They ripped the San Jose defense to shreds through the neutral zone on numerous occasions and the Oilers improbably outchanced the Sharks 9-7 with Nugent-Hopkins on the ice at even-strength. The issue for Edmonton is they were outchanced 18-1 at evens with their top center on the bench.”

    This is amazing, the kids were trying their damnedest but the rest of the team was completely over matched. To my eye Gordon also put in a great effort.

    If Kevin Lowe had been fired prior to the game the entire team would’ve risen up and smitten the evil Sharks, riding a righteous wave of accountability.

    It Is Known.

  108. G Money says:

    The guys who have done yeoman work predicting goalie performance suggest that you have grossly inadequate sample size for assessing a goalie until you have close to 5000 shots at the NHL level. For a typical goalie, that would be about two full seasons, or three seasons at 60ish games a season (and in shot terms, one season if you play for the Oilers).

    That’s just to get out of the grossly inadequate level. Adequate is more like 3 to 4 seasons as a minimum. This is reflective of the enormous game to game and season to season variability of goaltenders.

    Scrivens has faced about 2000 NHL shots. This is the very definition of grossly inadequate data.

    We have no idea how good a goalie he truly is going to be in the long run. All last night tells us is that his ceiling is pretty freakin’ high.

    Signing Scrivens for the long term is a risk. That doesn’t mean you don’t do it. You just have to understand the risk and manage it.

    I would be more than happy if MacT can get Scrivens and Khudobin under contract for a few years at a total < say $4M or $5M. Should be doable.

    The gambler in me says one of those two guys will prove to be a legit #1. Risk understood. Risk managed.

  109. Doug McLachlan says:

    The Oilers, even under Tambo, were aware that DD may NOT be a number 1. Everyone probably hoped he could prove he was but he wasn’t.

    Before being shown the door, Tambo made a pitch for Bishop (too little) and then MacT offered a much better package than Jersey did for Schneider but Vancouver said no to an in-division deal. I also understand that they were trying, for some time, to get Bernier out of LA but couldn’t make it happen. So we are on to plan “C”, “D”?

    Scrivens had an fracking unreal game last night (so pleased to have been able to watch it from start to finish). He has enough of a pedigree in pro hockey to believe he can be part of the solution in net moving forward but nobody whoa has looked at him so far (Leafs or Kings) sees him as a clear number 1. He will still have to prove it, and after last night I shore home it will be here with us.

    It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to pair him up with Reimer again – though I rather like Khudobin out of Carolina – and set up a 1a/1b dynamic.

  110. Derek says:

    If you were (un)lucky enough to miss the game last night, here’s a 7 minute recap of Scrivens work:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxbPv5bR2fE

    #Scrivensanity

  111. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: I like Thomas.Right age to not have to give a long contract to like Hillier or Halak.

    I don’t mind Hillier or Halak, but really wouldn’t want to give them more than 2-3 years and they may get more than that.

    Miller is good, but would cost too much as he is the belle of this year’s ball.

    I fear that CAR is somehow going to get MacT to take Ward.

    I fear that a lot.

    I hear Worsley is on Matheson’s wishlist. Has the right compete level.

    On Ward, I understand and share the fear, but my logical mini-wheats side says that he won’t be led down that garden path unless it is for an appropriate price.

    We’ll cross our fingers and see what happens.

  112. AZOIL says:

    Woodguy,

    I fear Ward too!

    What is your worry with a Khudobin or a Greiss? Bring one of them in and then may the better man win? Too unproven and then we are up a creek if Scrivens and one of them crap the bed?

    I feel like we always go with the older guy like a Khabibulin and we regret it. As long as it isn’t 4 years like his was then that is livable.

  113. Woodguy says:

    Here’s who

    Ducey:
    Anyone else surprised to see Kyle Okposo at #6 in NHL scoring?Drafted in 2006 and now 25.Sometimes you just have to let guys mature.

    Scott Cullen has a nice story about each teams goalie situation.There are plenty of them around.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=442498

    Thanks for the link.

    So teams looking for starters are:

    CAL
    EDM
    FLA
    NYI
    STL

    I also think WIN should buy out Pavelec and look for a #1, but I doubt they will. Seriously, he’s killing a pretty decent team that should be fighting for a playoff spot.

    So if we consider 5 spots for starter, and he’s the starter list of FA’s:

    Miller, Ryan
    Hiller, Jonas
    Thomas, Tim
    Halak, Jaroslav
    Dubnyk, Devan
    Bryzgalov, Ilya
    Elliott, Brian

    There’s lots more like Vokun, Brodeur, etc, but I didn’t consider them starters.

    You may want to remove DD from the list.

    There are also good young non-starters like Scrivens, Khudobin, etc, that I didn’t list.

    If you discount DD, Bryz and many may discount Elliott even though he’s had another very good year (I don’t like him, too up and down)

    That leave us with :

    Miller, Ryan
    Hiller, Jonas
    Thomas, Tim
    Halak, Jaroslav

    So 4 starters for 5 jobs and Thomas is a wild card.

    Did I miss anyone?

    Here’s the list to FA goalies: http://capgeek.com/free-agents/?year_id=2014&team_id=-1&position_id=G&fa_type_id=2

  114. FastOil says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    ke it happen.So we are on to plan “C”, “D”?

    It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to pair him up with Reimer again – though I rather like Khudobin out of Carolina – and set up a 1a/1b dynamic.

    I think given how tight the standings have become and the vagaries of goaltending that a 1A 1B idea is really on the money. Go with the hot hand. A slump from a goalie with no better alternative is a season killer these days.

  115. Woodguy says:

    AZOIL:
    Woodguy,

    I fear Ward too!

    What is your worry with a Khudobin or a Greiss? Bring one of them in and then may the better man win? Too unproven and then we are up a creek if Scrivens and one of them crap the bed?

    I feel like we always go with the older guy like a Khabibulin and we regret it. As long as it isn’t 4 years like his was then that is livable.

    I like Khudobin a lot, but he only has 37 NHL games

    Griess strikes me as backup only and not what the Oilers need if they sign Scrivens.

    If they can manage to keep the term short on Halak or Hillier, that’d be ok.

  116. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    Link to the work and the guy doing it?

  117. russ99 says:

    Woodguy,

    I’d love to see Halak here, but I shudder to think how much he’s going to command as a FA, and how much of his numbers are due to St. Louis playing the way they do?

    That’s why a Scrivens tryout the rest of he way is a heck of an idea, if he can continue to play well behind this group, he’s worthy of a good contract.

  118. FastOil says:

    Derek:

    Almost everyone in the game looked terribly gassed, passing into each others skates because they didn’t have enough wind to think things out, waiting for the Sharks to push the play.

    This is amazing, the kids were trying their damnedest but the rest of the team was completely over matched.To my eye Gordon also put in a great effort.

    RNH needs some help. The ‘third line’ couldn’t cut it as a checking line. I am curious as to why that is. I don’t think it’s on Gordon. I can see them getting out-chanced but that’s not what happened last night. That would need a description with bad words in it.

  119. Lois Lowe says:

    Tim Thomas is never going to play for a Canadian team. Our health care system and tax structure makes us a threat to his liberty.

  120. B S says:

    Bag of Pucks: Well, they ended up having to bring in a guy with alleged ‘psychological’ issues with Brzgalov anyway so I’m not sure that’s an iron clad argument against signing Thomas. What about the psychological issues of this young team having to play in front of a sieve?

    For Eakins, I think that early window of establishing his system and credibility with the players was huge, and Dubnyk almost singlehandedly derailed that with his brutal play. Apparently, even recently, there’s been some hardcore Dubie fans suggesting the Oil had given up on him too early. Hopefully we’ll see the last of that commentary now that they’ve had a glimpse of what elite goaltending actually looks like.

    The ‘issues’ with Bryz are a media problem, I’ve never heard of anyone on the Flyers or Coyotes complain about his personality, and goalies are usually weird, especially the good ones. Thomas was considerably more confrontational, though compared to Bryz he’s been consistently in the game when he’s playing.

    And given that Dubnyk had decent numbers under Krueger and Eakins was supposed be even more defensive minded, I seriously doubt anyone saw the Oilers getting so severely outscored. I’ll save my rant about Eakins for a less happy day (I still can’t stop smiling from last night), but Terry Sawchuck himself couldn’t have kept this team in it at the start of the season with all those shots from the slot.

    I agree that MacT was decidedly inactive (in terms of results) after stating Edmonton need a #1 G, I just don’t think it’s fair to point back at a guy with known attitude issues coming from a year off and wondering why we didn’t pick him up, when there was no way to know that Dubnyk was going to bomb completely.

  121. FastOil says:

    Why would any GM inflict Thomas on players he likes? Especially 67 year old Tim who’s always hurt.

    Crap. With his reputation and SV% 4 years ago it’s a foregone conclusion. 5 X 3.5M deal, book it.

  122. AZOIL says:

    G Money,

    Touche! Well Played, end of discussion!

  123. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Miller is good, but would cost too much as he is the belle of this year’s ball.

    Are you thinking money, term, or both?

  124. RexLibris says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Tim Thomas is never going to play for a Canadian team. Our health care system and tax structure makes us a threat to his liberty.

    Calgary has a private clinic and wide-open spaces (to go along with narrow political perspectives) so that might suit him.

  125. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Are you thinking money, term, or both?

    Both.

    I bet he gets 7 years at $7MM

  126. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: So teams looking for starters are:
    CAL
    EDM
    FLA
    NYI
    STL

    I like Miller. 7×7 is an albatross. Which of the above do you think gives him that? If it’s limited to the above teams, I’d bet on the 2nd one, or maybe the 4th.

  127. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: I like Miller.7×7 is an albatross.Which of the above do you think gives him that?If it’s limited to the above teams, I’d bet on the 2nd one, or maybe the 4th.

    In order:

    STL
    CAL
    EDM
    NYI
    FLA

    STL would have a case of giving him less. Contender with limited cap space.

    Maybe $6MM x 7 years there.

    He’s going to get term for sure and may be negotiable on the $ depending on where he lands.

  128. RexLibris says:

    theres oil in virginia: I like Miller.7×7 is an albatross.Which of the above do you think gives him that?If it’s limited to the above teams, I’d bet on the 2nd one, or maybe the 4th.

    My money is on the Islanders, although Burke has a history of chasing goaltending for most of his time as GM, so depending on his eventual replacement, and given Miller’s association with the US Olympic teams there is a possibility there, although I doubt it would then be for that price/term.

  129. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy,

    I hadn’t thought of STL as a spend-lots-of-cash team. I looked at capgeek though, and they’re spending on D mostly, not on F. They’ve got Halak at under $4M. Miller would be good for them.

    CAL thinking that signing Miller is a good move for the franchise is so “Feaster rebuild-denial”.

  130. FastOil says:

    Woodguy: In order:

    STL
    CAL
    EDM
    NYI
    FLA

    Let’s hope St Louis. They’re too good, need to come down a notch.

  131. Andy P says:

    Ryan:
    For guys like GMoney who lament the “Oilers disadvantage” with free agents–crappy weather / even crappier team.

    Look at a team like the San Jose Sharks.They have every advantage in signing free agents–winning team, beaches and babes, but who have they signed over the past four / five years in terms of big name free agents?

    Speaking of the San Jose Sharks, I’ve often wondered why other teams haven’t tried to poach some of the brains from this organization.By all accounts including stuff MC79hockey has cranked out over the years, they’re one of the smartest organizations in hockey and seem have have been ahead of the curve with all forms of analytics.

    Even their coach with him rattling off about 100 shot attempts after the last game.I’ve missed listening to Eakins but I’ve never heard him mention anything Corgi related…

    I hope you are not confusing San Jose with Southern California. San Jose doesn’t actually have a beach. There are some absolutely magnificent, unspoiled beaches within an hour or 3′s drive of SJ but they are very different from SoCal. In that the water is much colder than down south, the wildlife is mostly out at sea looking at you, there are more than a few great whites around, and it’s often quite windy. But they are also mostly unspoilt, and there is a beach off the old Highway 1 that runs from Santa Cruz to San Francisco, that at certain times of the year has some of the biggest waves in the world. Except that full wet suits are pretty much a necessity.

    Oh, and it’s sunny all summer but you literally don’t see the sun all winter, it’s continuously rainy and too cool and wet to do much outdoors.
    Once again, not SoCal if that’s what you are thinking.
    Just sayin’

  132. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: My money is on the Islanders, although Burke has a history of chasing goaltending for most of his time as GM, so depending on his eventual replacement, and given Miller’s association with the US Olympic teams there is a possibility there, although I doubt it would then be for that price/term.

    Miller’s made $40MM over his career.

    If he wants to win he’ll take less in STL than he would in NYI. EDM and CAL would need to seriously outbid both.

  133. G Money says:

    Woodguy:
    G Money,

    Link to the work and the guy doing it?

    My go to articles on using stats to assess goalies:

    Pronman: http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=1598

    Awad: http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=565

    I also like an article by Dellow about the random variability, especially of goalies, and the consequent foolishness of signing goalies to big contracts after one year:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6252

    However, Dellow’s site isn’t coming up for me right now, so I fear he’s gone back on hiatus.

  134. Woodguy says:

    FastOil: Let’s hope St Louis. They’re too good, need to come down a notch.

    I think he’s better than what they’ve been rolling with.

  135. B S says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Burke’s running calgary, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bid high for Miller, remember he believes in building from the back end out and places emphasis on having elite goaltending.

    After the Bryzgalov debacle I don’t see anyone offering max term to a goaltender, but $7mil./ for 4 or 5 years does seem possible.

    For Scrivens does $2mil/year with term (say 5 years) as was suggested by a previous poster seem to high for a 1b or frequently used backup. If it isn’t too much and we agree that his bottom end is good backup, then I say work to sign him now and don’t wait. Job security (and a reliable paycheck) should be extremely tempting for a young guy, as well as his california girl wife, weather be damned.

  136. kinger_OIL says:

    I promised I wouldn’t post untill next summer but I was a University student in Quebec City when the Nordiques were as sh$t as the Oil were now. I can remember that game: with I think Jean Perron as the play by play guy: imagine in french: “Tugnutt, ENCORE, quelle savetage. et TUGNETT ENCORE. OH LALA. EPOUVANTABLE, C’EST PAS VRAI!!!! I bet the Nordiques that year weren’t even as sh%t as the OIL this year: man that was a team with no hope: new owner, new city, new arena, they ended up all right…

  137. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy:
    Brian Costello of the The Hockey News calls bullshit on Katz:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/edmonton-oilers-on-pace-for-greatness-next-season-hardly/#.Uuq6Dvr1mzk.twitter

    I stopped reading at San Gagner.

    Not bothering to check punctuation, spelling, syntax or everything to do with former elementary school education is the preserve of slobs like me on Lowetide style blogs. This douche passes himself off as a serious writer, yet obviously has better things to do with his valuable time than have anyone check his crappy writing.

  138. FastOil says:

    Woodguy: I think he’s better than what they’ve been rolling with.

    34 next season, he’s going to Ference whoever pays too much for him methinks. Might get two good years out of him and be stuck with an expensive back up.

  139. hunter1909 says:

    How was Yakupov last night?

    ps; Don’t drink kids. Drink something else, like water.

  140. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Woodguy,

    I hadn’t thought of STL as a spend-lots-of-cash team.I looked at capgeek though, and they’re spending on D mostly, not on F.They’ve got Halak at under $4M.Miller would be good for them.

    CAL thinking that signing Miller is a good move for the franchise is so “Feaster rebuild-denial”.

    They spend to the cap now.

    They’ve got about $11.5MM coming off the books this summer.

    Bergland, Schwartz and Sobatka need new contracts.

    They may need to trade again to find room for Miller.

    I can see them moving Polak or Stewart to find some $$$.

  141. theres oil in virginia says:

    B S: Burke’s running calgary,

    Yeah, I know. I was attributing the syndrome to Feaster. “Feaster’s rebuild denial” syndrome. I think these syndrome all have a name attached to them.
    :)

    FastOil: Let’s hope St Louis. They’re too good, need to come down a notch.

    You think Miller brings them down a notch!?

    Miller’s worth the dollars, it’s the term that would scare me off.

  142. Woodguy says:

    FastOil: 34 next season, he’s going to Ference whoever pays too much for him methinks. Might get two good years out of him and be stuck with an expensive back up.

    I agree with that.

    In the short term he’s better.

    Goalie are weird too.

    Break down at different times and for different reasons than D or F.

    He might last a while yet.

  143. hunter1909 says:

    Methinks this new goalie is the guy who they win the cup with.

    If they ever do, of course.

  144. theres oil in virginia says:

    hunter1909: I stopped reading at San Gagner.

    Not bothering to check punctuation, spelling, syntax or everything to do with former elementary school education is the preserve of slobs like me on Lowetide style blogs. This douche passes himself off as a serious writer, yet obviously has better things to do with his valuable time than have anyone check his crappy writing.

    I got past “San Gagner” and got to the point where he used 1990s Ottawa as an example of rebuild. You know freshly-minted-in-1992-Ottawa. He also conveniently started “Year 1″ with their 2nd draft, where they picked Daigle 1st overall, rather than starting with their first draft (making the Daigle selection “Year 2″) where they drafted Yashin 2nd overall. Seems contrived to me.

  145. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    True, but the Islanders are closer to Buffalo where he has lived these past few years and heaven only knows what Snow might sell him on.

    These aren’t meant to be definitive factors, but intangibles to which we have no window and therefore may or may not impact his decision.

    St. Louis would be the smart choice, but if he signs elsewhere, like Calgary for instance, he wouldn’t be the first FA to make a bad decision on a contract.

  146. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: They spend to the cap now.

    Yeah, I saw that too. I forgot they moved Perron, at least in part, due to that. They’ve got >$13M tied up in their top two D, and follow that up with $4.25M for the next guy. Wow. I can believe they’d sign Miller if they think he’s the guy to get them the cup. I wonder if they try to acquire him at the deadline this year?

  147. stevezie says:

    G Money,

    I agree completely. I think with a handful of exceptions, goalie performances is too hard to predict to spend big money one. I think the smart play is to get two guys who have a solid chance at being good and let them fight it out, ideally at a combined salary of around 5 mil. Scrivens works for me as one of the guys. In addition to the guys you mentioned, Anaheim has too many goalies, maybe they move one?

    oilersfan,
    Yes, but Garon also had stretches of bad in there to balance out the good. You are isolating his good stretches to say, “See? Even mediocre goalies can have these good periods,” which is true, but right now Scrivens doesn’t have any bad stretches to balance things out. His total picture looks like Garon’s cherry-picked section.

    Now, your basic point is still true. We don’t know that much about Scrivens, so let’s not go nuts. But I don’t think it is fair to say, “He’s Garon all over again.”

    Scrivens is not a sure thing, he’s a decent bet. If you can get two decent bets they are usually cheaper than a sure thing and, between them, are just as likely as a sure thing to give you good goaltending (because with goalies, there are no “sure things”, unless you’re talking about maybe three or four guys.)

    This is not that far from what the Oil did last summer, but both of the decent bets flamed out spectacularly. I don’t think it is widely appreciated the degree to which Dub sabotaged this team, and even in Edmonton I don’t think enough is made of hatchet job Hanna Barbera did. One of those guys should have been at least competent. The tandem destroyed everything, but I still think the founding principles were solid. St Louis or pre-Crawford contract Chicago are examples of successes.

  148. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Yeah, I saw that too.I forgot they moved Perron, at least in part, due to that.They’ve got >$13M tied up in their top two D, and follow that up with $4.25M for the next guy.Wow.I can believe they’d sign Miller if they think he’s the guy to get them the cup.I wonder if they try to acquire him at the deadline this year?

    That’s the hub bub. (acquiring him at the deadline)

  149. hunter1909 says:

    theres oil in virginia: I got past “San Gagner” and got to the point where he used 1990s Ottawa as an example of rebuild.You know freshly-minted-in-1992-Ottawa.He also conveniently started “Year 1″ with their 2nd draft, where they picked Daigle 1st overall, rather than starting with their first draft (making the Daigle selection “Year 2″) where they drafted Yashin 2nd overall.Seems contrived to me.

    Let’s face it everyone who calls themselves a fan of the Edmonton Oilers either deserves a medal or else medical supervision, depending on who’s telling the narrative.

    The team with it’s 3 game W streak suddenly looks like it’s competing. The first line grows bigger and better while MacT has finally delivered the role players in fine style, which for me to state this after the fact is another reason why I’m a tier 2 fan and even way less, lol.

  150. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Calculated averages aside and not suggesting it defines Scrivens future expectations, but this is the kind of performance by a goaltender that Dubnyk is not capable of. Not now, not ever. Its just not what he is. Fun to watch.

  151. Woodguy says:

    Mirtle, Duhatschek and Yourk talk Scrivens, goalies and other stuff.

    Podcast:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/scrivensfinalmixdownmp3/article16613316/#dashboard/follows/

  152. G Money says:

    Ryan: For guys like GMoney who lament the “Oilers disadvantage” with free agents–crappy weather / even crappier team.

    Look at a team like the San Jose Sharks. They have every advantage in signing free agents–winning team, beaches and babes, but who have they signed over the past four / five years in terms of big name free agents?

    Pish tosh. I’m hardly “lamenting” – my point should be clear, a rebuild in Edmonton is going to be harder than a rebuild in e.g. LA or SJ, because the city is not glamorous (fact), the weather is cold (fact), and the team is crap (also fact). That makes the signing of free agents either more difficult or more expensive or both.

    I’m not sure what you’re disagreeing with, or why specifically you’re focusing on San Jose.

    There is a shockingly long list of players who have outright spurned Edmonton (e.g. Pronger), refused to sign here (e.g. Nylander), refused to waive their NTC to come here (e.g. Heatley, Luongo, Miller), only signed here because we clearly paid them more than what they were worth and what anyone else would (Souray, Ference), and worst of all, refused to come here EVEN when we paid them way more than anyone else would (Hossa, Clarkson).

    Not sure why this would be considered even a remotely arguable point.

  153. hunter1909 says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    Calculated averages aside and not suggesting it defines Scrivens future expectations, but this is the kind of performance by a goaltender that Dubnyk is not capable of. Not now, not ever. Its just not what he is. Fun to watch.

    I only saw highlights, which looked insane, but LAKings fans talk about the dude in glowing terms. Seems they all think he’s going to go on to play better now he’s away from the Kings.

    MacT comes through with a real NHL goalie, after trading Dubnyk for another solid NHLer? Very good.

  154. Ducey says:

    I am happy if the Oilers sign Scrivens but they should be a little more cautious about it than some here are suggesting.

    The game before Bryz played pretty well too, but had 2 unlucky bounces off Potter’s skate. Those happen last night and we are not having this discussion. In fact, if they didn’t happen in the game against VAN, Bryz gets a shutout and some would be advocating for the Oilers to sign Bryz instead.

    Scrivens’ save % is inflated due to his playing time with the Kings and his game last night.

    There is 1/2 a season to play and lots of time to evaluate Scrivens. I don’t think anyone would argue his save % will not go down over the next 20 games he plays – perhaps precipitously.

    If I am MacT, I would start Scrivens vs BOS and then be trying to play Bryz as much as possible for the next few games in order to maximize his trade value.

  155. theres oil in virginia says:

    theres oil in virginia: I got past “San Gagner” and got to the point where he used 1990s Ottawa as an example of rebuild.You know freshly-minted-in-1992-Ottawa.He also conveniently started “Year 1″ with their 2nd draft, where they picked Daigle 1st overall, rather than starting with their first draft (making the Daigle selection “Year 2″) where they drafted Yashin 2nd overall.Seems contrived to me.

    Further digging provides:
    The guy starts his Quebec analysis at 1988, 3rd overall, when in 1987 they picked 9th overall, which is similar to the 3 years he includes for the Oilers where they drafted 6th, 22nd, and 10th.

    Similar for CHI, where
    Year 0 (2001) they picked 9th,
    Year -1 (2000) they picked 10th,
    Year -2 (1999) they picked 9th?,
    Year -3 (1998) they picked 10th,
    Year -4 (1997) they picked 13th.

    PIT, where
    Year 0 (2000) they picked 18th,
    Year -1 (1999) they picked 18th,
    which isn’t quite as bad as the other examples, especially since there were only 27 teams.

    Regardless of how you feel about when EDM rebuild actually started, this guy is tweaking the figures.

    I’m calling bullshit.

  156. TheOtherJohn says:

    G Money: Pish tosh. I’m hardly “lamenting” – my point should be clear, a rebuild in Edmonton is going to be harder than a rebuild in e.g. LA or SJ, because the city is not glamorous (fact), the weather is cold (fact), and the team is crap (also fact).That makes the signing of free agents either more difficult or more expensive or both.

    I’m not sure what you’re disagreeing with, or why specifically you’re focusing on San Jose.

    There is a shockingly long list of players who have outright spurned Edmonton (e.g. Pronger), refused to sign here (e.g. Nylander), refused to waive their NTC to come here (e.g. Heatley, Luongo, Miller), only signed here because we clearly paid them more than what they were worth and what anyone else would (Souray, Ference), and worst of all, refused to come here EVEN when we paid them way more than anyone else would (Hossa, Clarkson).

    Not sure why this would be considered even a remotely arguable point.

    GMoney

    Quit with the factual arguments.

  157. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: GMoney

    Quit with the factual arguments.

    Sorry man. I forgot I was on the interwebs for a second there.

  158. FastOil says:

    Woodguy: I agree with that.

    In the short term he’s better.

    Goalie are weird too.

    Break down at different times and for different reasons than D or F.

    He might last a while yet.

    Do you remember who looked into that (goalies as they age) a while back? IIRC the odds of him holding long aren’t good and I believe it was the top of the SV% range guys (not surprisingly) that held better.

    Miller is career .916 NHL according to TSN. Not stellar. In fact I see only one other NHL year (09-10 @ .929, 69 GP) above average, the rest below. He’s on a hot streak and somebody’s gonna get hurt real bad. Let it be the Blues. Real long term.

  159. icecastles says:

    verdad: firing Lower asap is vitally important.
    Any organziation needs to know that accountability is real

    Exactly. And for years we have fired head coaches and execs while the hens run the henhouse. Its been aluded to a few times, though probably never more strongly than Jones last week. Players are not made to feel accountable by seeing their bossès bossès boss fired.

    Considering nearly 1/3 of the lineup is new this year and they saw both their top goalies and one of their most veteran defensemen traded or waived, I think they are aware that there is accountability for lack of performance.

    Their top scorer from last year ago was HSed two games in a row for poor defensive performance. I think the players are aware that there is accountability.

    If you mean the GM or the need to realize they are accountable, Ièll point out that their predecessors were both fired less than a year ago. I think they already are well aware of accountability or theyère out.

    I agree with you about accountability. I disagree that firing Lowe accomplishes that in any way that makes a difference.

  160. Jon K says:

    For what it’s worth, I think the Oilers were very happy to get Scrivens, and had had their eye on him for some time.

    If you’ll recall, Scrivens was the starter for Cornell for the three seasons that Riley Nash spent his time there. The Oilers undoubtedly would have seen Scrivens more than other teams who may not have had an active interest in following Cornell’s players.

    Looking at Scrivens’ career at Cornell, we can see some benefit for the current conversation about his potential consistency. Here are Scrivens’ stats from his time at Cornell. I’ve bolded the interesting parts.

    2006-07 Cornell University ECAC 12 574 22 0 1 2.30 3 6 2 224 0.911
    2007-08 Cornell University ECAC 35 1965 66 0 4 2.02 19 12 3 883 0.930
    2008-09 Cornell University ECAC 36 2152 65 0 7 1.81 22 10 4 871 0.931
    2009-10 Cornell University ECAC 34 2018 63 0 7 1.87 21 9 4 894 0.934
    2010-11 Reading Royals ECHL 13 779 29 1 0 2.23 10 3 0 442 0.938
    2010-11 Toronto Marlies AHL 33 1929 75 3 2 2.33 13 12 5 912 0.924
    2011-12 Toronto Marlies AHL 39 2293 78 3 4 2.04 22 15 1 974 0.926
    2011-12 Toronto Maple Leafs NHL 12 672 35 4 0 3.13 4 5 2 324 0.902
    2012-13 Toronto Marlies AHL 22 1325 49 4 2 2.22 14 7 1 538 0.917
    2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs NHL 20 1025 46 0 2 2.69 7 9 0 496 0.915
    2013-14 Los Angeles Kings NHL 19 975 32 0 3 1.97 7 5 4 432 0.931
    2013-14 Edmonton Oilers NHL 4 239 7 0 1 1.76 2 2 0 147 0.955

    From:
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=94416

    On the face of the numbers, he seems to be the model of consistency. Of course, plain box cars don’t tell us variance or deviation, but still, those numbers look very nice.

    Another interesting thing to note when looking at his career stats? He’s never had a season with a SV% below 90%. Not much weight can be placed upon that, but it seems rare, at least anecdotally.

    With Bryz’ consistency issues since his “head injury” (aka concussion), I say play Scrivens like a starter the rest of the way and see how he does. If he maintains league average starter stats, pay him like a starter on a 2-3 year contract. The Oilers still would maintain the ability to try for cheap FA pickups that are always available in the offseason. If Scrivens flops, he flops, but at least the term won’t be a killer. There’s risk to be sure, but there’s also immense reward if the gamble pays off.

  161. icecastles says:

    verdad: Lowe is an affront to that basic requirement for any effecitve organization. His blunders are numerous, his ego counterproductive

    What, specifically, does that meanÉ Because I just hear ÈLowe pisses me off and rubs the wrong way.È
    and his salary unneeded

    Kevin Loweès salary does not count toward the cap. I think Katz can afford it.

    Why is this so hard for this blog to support and campaign for?

    People on this blog think critically and at underlying reasons. Passion for cheering, Reason is for analysis. That is why. I donèt have a lot of use for Lowe, but I dont overstate or misunderstand either his influence on the state of the organization or what would change if he were to be fired.

  162. icecastles says:

    Apologies for the bizarre punctuation. On a borrowed non-English computer.

    The bizarre logic is wholly my fault, however.

  163. Bag of Pucks says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=442499

    Fistric, Cogliano, Souray

    I’m sensing a pattern here.

    Glencross, Broadziak, Chimera, Cleary, etc.

  164. Jon K says:

    For reference and because apparently I’m really not interested in writing these written arguments, I went through and found all of the current NHL goalies listed on the NCAA site:

    http://collegehockeyinc.com/pages/2013-14-alums-nhl

    Dan Ellis
    2000-01 U. of Nebraska-Omaha CCHA 40 2285 95 0 0 2.49 21 14 3 976 0.911
    2001-02 U. of Nebraska-Omaha CCHA 40 2405 97 0 0 2.42 20 15 4 1098 0.919
    2002-03 U. of Nebraska-Omaha CCHA 39 2211 117 0 0 3.18 11 21 5 1051 0.900

    Ryan Miller
    1999-00 Michigan State University CCHA 25 1453 33 0 7 1.36 16 4 3 0 0.000
    2000-01 Michigan State University CCHA 40 2447 54 0 0 1.32 31 5 4 1024 0.950
    2001-02 Michigan State University CCHA 40 2411 71 0 0 1.77 26 9 5 1039 0.936

    Jimmy Howard
    2002-03 U. of Maine H-East 21 1151 47 0 3 2.45 14 6 0 515 0.916
    2003-04 U. of Maine H-East 22 1364 27 0 6 1.19 14 4 3 580 0.956
    2004-05 U. of Maine H-East 39 2310 74 0 6 1.92 19 13 7 900 0.924

    Richard Bachman
    2007-08 Colorado College WCHA 35 2103 65 0 4 1.85 25 9 1 883 0.931
    2008-09 Colorado College WCHA 35 2073 91 0 3 2.63 14 11 10 962 0.914

    Scott Clemmensen
    1997-98 Boston College H-East 37 2205 102 0 4 2.78 24 9 4 777 0.884
    1998-99 Boston College H-East 42 2507 120 0 1 2.87 26 12 4 0 0.000
    1999-00 Boston College H-East 29 1610 59 0 3 2.20 19 7 0 631 0.914
    2000-01 Boston College H-East 39 2312 82 0 0 2.13 30 7 2 876 0.914

    Tim Thomas (NCAA shots were not tracked when he played, it seems)
    1993-94 U. of Vermont ECAC 33 1864 94 0 0 3.03 15 12 6 0 0.000
    1994-95 U. of Vermont ECAC 34 2010 90 0 4 2.69 18 13 2 0 0.000
    1995-96 U. of Vermont ECAC 37 2254 88 0 3 2.34 26 7 4 0 0.000
    1996-97 U. of Vermont ECAC 36 2158 101 0 2 2.81 22 11 3 0 0.000

    Curtis McElhinney
    2001-02 Colorado College WCHA 9 441 15 0 1 2.04 6 0 1 169 0.918
    2002-03 Colorado College WCHA 37 2147 85 0 4 2.37 25 6 5 822 0.906
    2003-04 Colorado College WCHA 19 1015 41 0 2 2.42 10 6 1 396 0.906
    2004-05 Colorado College WCHA 25 1490 52 0 2 2.09 21 3 1 659 0.927

    Jonathan Quick
    2005-06 UMass-Amherst H-East 17 905 45 0 0 2.98 4 10 1 518 0.920
    2006-07 UMass-Amherst H-East 37 2224 80 0 3 2.16 19 12 5 1046 0.929

    Cory Schneider
    2004-05 Boston College H-East 18 0 2 1102 35 0 1 1.90 13 1 4 382 0.916
    2005-06 Boston College H-East 37 1 0 2242 76 0 8 2.03 23 12 2 1015 0.930
    2006-07 Boston College H-East 42 2 0 2517 90 0 6 2.15 29 12 1 1111 0.925

    Carter Hutton
    2006-07 UMass-Lowell H-East 19 0 0 1097 52 0 1 2.84 3 10 5 418 0.889
    2007-08 UMass-Lowell H-East 20 1 0 1187 49 0 2 2.48 7 11 2 491 0.909
    2008-09 UMass-Lowell H-East 19 0 2 1106 38 0 3 2.06 9 8 1 414 0.916
    2009-10 UMass-Lowell H-East 27 2 0 1614 55 0 4 2.04 13 12 2 706 0.928

    Cam Talbot
    2007-08 U. of Alabama-Huntsville CHA 13 583 45 0 0 4.63 1 10 0 277 0.860
    2008-09 U. of Alabama-Huntsville CHA 24 1320 65 0 1 2.95 2 16 3 635 0.907
    2009-10 Hartford Wolf Pack AHL 1 19 3 0 0 9.70 0 0 0 8 0.727
    2009-10 U. of Alabama-Huntsville CHA 33 1958 85 0 1 2.61 12 18 3 1042 0.925

    Jeff Zatkoff
    2005-06 Miami University (Ohio) CCHA 20 1217 41 0 3 2.02 14 5 1 532 0.928
    2006-07 Miami University (Ohio) CCHA 26 1542 58 0 1 2.26 14 8 3 662 0.919
    2007-08 Miami University (Ohio) CCHA 36 2161 62 0 3 1.72 27 8 1 857 0.933

    Brian Elliott
    2003-04 U. of Wisconsin WCHA 6 336 12 0 0 2.14 3 3 0 124 0.912
    2004-05 U. of Wisconsin WCHA 9 467 9 0 3 1.16 6 2 1 156 0.945
    2005-06 U. of Wisconsin WCHA 33 2008 52 0 8 1.55 25 5 3 783 0.938

    Alex Stalock
    2006-07 U. of Minnesota-Duluth WCHA 23 1364 76 0 1 3.34 5 14 3 560 0.881
    2007-08 U. of Minnesota-Duluth WCHA 36 2170 85 0 3 2.35 13 17 6 899 0.914
    2008-09 U. of Minnesota-Duluth WCHA 42 2534 90 0 5 2.13 21 13 8 1094 0.924

    Ben Bishop
    2005-06 U. of Maine H-East 30 1728 64 0 0 2.22 21 7 2 631 0.908
    2006-07 U. of Maine H-East 34 1907 68 0 3 2.14 21 9 2 819 0.923
    2007-08 Peoria Rivermen AHL 5 302 12 1 0 2.38 2 2 1 119 0.908
    2007-08 U. of Maine H-East 34 1972 80 0 2 2.43 13 18 3 915 0.920

    Al Montoya
    2002-03 U. of Michigan CCHA 43 2547 99 0 0 2.33 30 10 3 1014 0.911
    2003-04 U. of Michigan CCHA 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.000
    2004-05 U. of Michigan CCHA 40 2359 99 0 3 2.52 30 7 3 841 0.895

    So, there are a few disclaimers: 1) This comparison assumes all teams and systems are equal, which they clearly are not. Cornell in particular, where Scrivens played, had a notoriously tight defensive team. 2) This comparison does not take into account age. I’m of the view and the stats are showing that the stats a player puts up at 18 vs 20 vs 22 vs 24 have different weights, obviously.

    But, a quick comparison seems to show that Scrivens’ college pedigree is at least as good as other NHL goalies:
    - Ben Bishop
    - Cory Schneider
    - Jonathan Quick
    - Dan Ellis
    - Jimmy Howard
    - Richard Bachman
    - Scott Clemmensen
    - Curtis McElhinney
    - Carter Hutton
    - Jeff Zatkoff
    - Cam Talbot

    I don’t know how much closer this gets us to answering the question, “Is Ben Scrivens a legitimate NHL starter?” However, this very basic comparison seems to show that there are good reasons to believe that he can perform at a very high level relative to his peers that ended up in the NHL, carry that on to the NHL level, and he also seems to have shown consistency in the past, where others have not.

  165. denny33 says:

    oilersfan,

    Lost in the euphoria over last night is the desolation that Marincin and Petry had cf% around 12% and that the Gagner line was below 10%.
    ******************************************************************************************
    Not outside Edmonton – the work of Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, Anton Belov, Philip Larsen, Justin Schultz and Nick Schultz is now the stuff of legend.

    Kudos to Dallas for being extremely honest with his assessment of the game…

  166. OilClog says:

    If were stating factual stuff.. Please refer to me to where Luongo factually denied a trade here. I believe he’s on record for his love of Grant Fuhr and stating he would wear Oiler colours.

  167. gogliano says:

    Andy P: I hope you are not confusing San Jose with Southern California. San Jose doesn’t actually have a beach. There are some absolutely magnificent, unspoiled beaches within an hour or 3′s drive of SJ but they are very different from SoCal. In that the water is much colder than down south, the wildlife is mostly out at sea looking at you, there are more than a few great whites around, and it’s often quite windy. But they are also mostly unspoilt, and there is a beach off the old Highway 1 that runs from Santa Cruz to San Francisco, that at certain times of the year has some of the biggest waves in the world. Except that full wet suits are pretty much a necessity.

    Oh, and it’s sunny all summer but you literally don’t see the sun all winter, it’s continuously rainy and too cool and wet to do much outdoors.
    Once again, not SoCal if that’s what you are thinking.
    Just sayin’

    This is more of a description of SF than SJ. San Jose and the bordering peninsula (where many of the players live) is mostly sunny and dry during the winter. Cooler than SoCal, to be sure, but the sun stays out for most of the year.

  168. HeavySig says:

    Jon K,

    Thanks for that work. While I have been hoping the Oilers would get Scrivens when he was still in Cornell, I had no illusions that he would be a shoe-in for a bona-fide #1 starter. His track record of being consistently at the top tier of every level he played at since he was he was an All-Star in the AJHL led me to believe he had the potential to keep doing it. There was even talk of Hobey Baker consideration at Cornell. My hope was always that the Oil could have picked him up as a college UFA, which of course didn’t happen.

    He came at a slightly higher price when he did arrive, but however this plays out, it is at least nice to have a positive note on the goaltender front for a change. It’s been awhile since we could get excited about a goaltender. Let’s see how The Professor handles it.

    I think they need to call up Fedun so that Scrivens has another Spruce Grove Saint/Ivy League alum to play chess with.

  169. stevezie says:

    verdad: These players will play better knowing that poor performance has consequences.
    Why is this so hard for this blog to support and campaign for?

    I can’t speak for anyone else, but I think your statement is not true, I’m not exactly a Lowe defender, I just think you’re wrong that his presence or lack-thereof will directly affect the ice.

    I want the team to make good decisions. I don’t really care who makes them.

  170. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    Good piece..thanks for the link.

  171. Caramel Obvious says:

    G Money,

    What conclusion are you inferring from the goaltending data? Is it that teams should err on the side of proven (i.e. high sample size) goalies?

    Why do ignore AHL data? You wouldn’t ignore it for forwards.

    While granting that the random variation around save percentage is large, I don’t see how else one would evaluate a goaltender other than by save percentage. It seems from the rhetorical use of the data you’ve made that you think that 2000 shots at the NHL contains no information and that we have no way of evaluating or comparing Scrivens to any other goalie of similar experience. That strikes me as absurd. I mean if you were betting, you’d bet on the goalie with the higher save percentage, wouldn’t you?

    So while granting that we are dealing with a situation of incomplete information it seems to me that this is a reason for signing Scrivens not a reason against signing Scrivens.

  172. verdad says:

    Ice Castles, I respect your many well reasoned contributions to this forum.

    But firing Lowe asap will manifestly help.

    It goes to the basic culture of the organization. No other sports organization woudl not have fired him long ago. Failing to do that only re-inforces that perfomance doesn’t matter and entitlement reigsn as long as long suffering Oiler fans buy ticketts.

    No well managed business would tolerate this.

  173. Lowetide says:

    verdad:
    Ice Castles, I respect your many well reasoned contributions to this forum.

    But firing Lowe asap will manifestly help.

    It goes to the basic culture of the organization.No other sports organization woudl not have fired him long ago. Failing to do that only re-inforces thatperfomance doesn’t matter and entitlement reigsn as long as long suffering Oiler fansbuy ticketts.

    No well managed business would tolerate this.

    Nah. The letter Katz wrote said:

    1. I hear you fans
    2. I’m doing what I want anyway

    That letter didn’t have Lowe’s signature on it.

  174. Caramel Obvious says:

    verdad:
    Ice Castles, I respect your many well reasoned contributions to this forum.

    But firing Lowe asap will manifestly help.

    It goes to the basic culture of the organization.No other sports organization woudl not have fired him long ago. Failing to do that only re-inforces thatperfomance doesn’t matter and entitlement reigsn as long as long suffering Oiler fansbuy ticketts.

    No well managed business would tolerate this.

    People say things like this all the time. I wonder upon what is it based? It seems to me that it is based upon two manifestly false assumptions.

    1) A sports franchise is a business like any other.
    2) Winning is an appropriate measure for what counts as “well managed.”

    Regarding the first, it clearly is not. Professional sports in North America is an anti-competitive cartel. It should be evaluated in this context.

    Regarding the second, while sports is an anti-competitive cartel, with regards to winning it is also a zero-sum game. This makes it quite a different animal than businesses which while they compete they can also cooperate in such a way that it is possible for it to be a positive sum game.

    All of this makes the simple analogy to the “business” world rather facile. And that’s notwithstanding the idea that there is such a thing as the “business” world. I rather imagine that most businesses have sufficient particularities that a nondescript generalist description does not appropriately capture their workings.

  175. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    I thought I made my conclusions relatively clear?

    The variation around save percentage isn’t large, it’s enormous. The error bars on “true talent” after 2000 saves are so wide they are almost nonsense. You can conclude with certainty that Scrivens is likely to be between a .850 and .950 NHL goalie, and that’s about it.

    Believing that a SV% of .931 (or any such number) after just 54 games in the NHL means you have a superior goaltender is like concluding that you have a biased coin because you flipped 30 heads in 54 tosses. Statistically, you have absolutely no basis for drawing that conclusion.

    I highly recommend you read the articles I linked for WG, I won’t bother to recreate the analysis here. The Awad article links to the data he used, so it is of particular interest if you want to do any of your own analysis.

    You and I will have to disagree on the value of AHL numbers for goalies. I think they have no value. That is based on my observations of development paths for goalies. If you have done or have access to any sort of analysis that suggests that there is meaningful predictive value for NHL performance based on AHL numbers, please do point me there, I am open to changing my mind if actual data supports.

    Getting back to Scrivens, I will paraphrase your own words in so many posts: It is completely obvious that you can draw no conclusions as to how good or bad Scrivens is based on his sv% in only 54 games. That is nonsense.

    Fortunately, there is more to drawing a conclusion than simply looking at numbers. I like what I see from Scrivens’ confidence, his style, his body language. I am no goalie expert, so my conclusions in that regard are no more meaningful than conclusions based on sv %, but there we are. I seen him good (and that was before last night) and I likes him.

    So what would I do? As I said in my post – I understand there is risk, but I would go ahead and try to grab both Scrivens and Khudobin for at least two or three years for $4 to $5m dollars total.

    It’s a risk and it’s a big bet to carry two goalies with darn good numbers but only one season of NHL hockey between them, but success in the business of hockey, as in the business of business, involves taking intelligent risks.

    I’m just not going to fool myself into thinking the numbers justify that risk. They don’t.

  176. VOR says:

    In terms of the sample size issue and goaltenders, try turning the problem upside down. Lets say we were having this argument over a very bad goalie. Maybe in his first 53 games the guy ywe are debating went .896. How much should we sign him for?

    The correct answer is – whatever it f***ing takes. Because that is the first 53 games of the legendary career of Dominik Hasek. So if we couldn’t predict the career of one the all time greats after 53 games why on Earth would we believe we can do it with Ben Scrivens?

  177. Andy P says:

    Doomoil: Did you just call last nights debacle a well played game?

    Both the Schultz’ were crushed last night and everytime Larsen was an unmitigated disaster every time he was on the ice.

    Absolutely no one should be happy at all about last night except for childish glee about Scriven’s ridiculous game.

    With respect I would not call the glee childish. It’s why we watch hockey, to cach those magic moment, and that was a wonderful thing to watch.

  178. VOR says:

    How big a sample size do we need? How about trying to decide how much to pay a goaltender who at 139 games into his NHL career was .889 while league average was about .905? What do you pay him.

    Whatever it f***ing takes because that is Patrick Roy.

    Again, what do we know about the future of Ben Scrivens based on 55 games of his NHL career?

  179. Marc says:

    verdad:
    Ice Castles, I respect your many well reasoned contributions to this forum.

    But firing Lowe asap will manifestly help.

    It goes to the basic culture of the organization.No other sports organization woudl not have fired him long ago. Failing to do that only re-inforces thatperfomance doesn’t matter and entitlement reigsn as long as long suffering Oiler fansbuy ticketts.

    No well managed business would tolerate this.

    I don’t think accountability means what you think it does.

    Firing Lowe in July 2008 for his mismanagement of the team following the cup run would have demonstrated accountability.

    Firing Lowe along with Tambellini in April 2013 would have demonstrated accountability.

    Firing Lowe now would demonstrate nothing more than total confusion on behalf of the owner as to how he wants to run his team.

  180. VOR says:

    Just to make it tougher, some, like Tuukka Rask, their first 55 games appear to have been dead on predictive. For others it took well over 200 NHL games to see the shape of their career. Some the first few games predicted pretty well what would be.

    Goalies are a black box.

  181. Captain Smarmy says:

    VOR:
    Just to make it tougher, some, like Tuukka Rask, their first 55 games appear to have been dead on predictive. For others it took well over 200 NHL games to see the shape of their career. Some the first few games predicted pretty well what would be.

    Goalies are a black box.

    That said, Scrivens numbers are pretty great from College to now and the handful of games I’ve seen him play pass the old eye test. If Mac-T is feeling it I say roll the dice on the guy. Could have a cap friendly deal that let’s Mac-T put more cash into the blueline.

  182. DeadmanWaking says:

    theres oil in virginia: I’m calling bullshit.

    I get as far as noticing that Pittsburgh is included among the pace cars.

    Your refurbished hot rod might look awfully good with a new engine, new tires, new brakes, new spoilers, new panels, new paint, and new decals, but if the previous owner bent the frame, the first time you unleash the ponies in earnest all you’ll get for your troubles is a smoking donut.

    Rebuilds do not commence with some happy dance at a chalk line of perfect abreasthood.

    Meanwhile, changes to the CBA ripple through the league so the track itself isn’t flat, but undulates like Jabba’s waterbed while he dreams sweaty dreams of Hinde “Indy” Balrog vs. Yoda “It-On-Bring” pouncing off walls in a cavernous bungy Thunderdone zero-gravity lightsaber duel.

    In the version I found online, the Table of Contents of that fine document in its present incarnation runs to page xvii.

    Key Points in the 2005 NHL CBA

    Unrestricted free agents will get younger. The minimum age at which a player can shop himself on the open market will drop through the first four years of the agreement:
    - In 2005, 31 years old.
    - In 2006, 29 years old or eight years of NHL service.
    - In 2007, 28 years old or seven years of NHL service.
    - In 2008, 27 years old or seven years in the NHL. The 2008 benchmark remains in place for the life of the agreement.

    Not to mention that many tactics for creative accounting have passed by the wayside.

    Ovechkin + Backstrom = 13 + 10
    Zetterberg + Franzen = 12 + 11
    Hossa + Keith = 12 + 12

    The economics of this are simple. You get your nucleus locked into short-term underpay / long-term overpay contracts just as they begin to peak. Then the UFAs flock to join the party, thereafter taking a long-term loyalty discount in exchange for getting their name engraved on the big shiny.

    Of course, none of that makes any difference in piloting Good Ship Rebuild through the rocky shoals.

  183. Ducey says:

    Marc: I don’t think accountability means what you think it does.

    Firing Lowe in July 2008 for his mismanagement of the team following the cup run would have demonstrated accountability.

    Firing Lowe along with Tambellini in April 2013 would have demonstrated accountability.

    Firing Lowe now would demonstrate nothing more than total confusion on behalf of the owner as to how he wants to run his team.

    Well put.

  184. Doomoil says:

    Andy P: With respect I would not call the glee childish. It’s why we watch hockey, to cach those magic moment, and that was a wonderful thing to watch.

    Childlike might have been a better wording.

  185. VOR says:

    Captain Smarmy,

    Oh, I am not saying don’t sign Scrivens. I am not arguing for a particular dollar value. I’m just saying, admit you are guessing. No decision MacT makes in Scrivens case can be criticized down the road (or used of signs of his genius either). Because like the rest of us MacT is going to be guessing and hingsight means nothing when the observed result is largely luck.

    Scrivens sample size is far too small to mean anything or tell us anything. The research says what he did at lower levels may well be contaminated by arena effects or for that matter degree of difficulty.

  186. VOR says:

    Captain Smarmy,

    Several people here have argued for some sort of logical way of determining Scrivens value. The math says no such way exists. So go ahead and guess. Just don’t say you have solved the problem with “math” or “logic”. Because goalies with small sample sizes (maybe all goalies) are not predictable and thus currently not amenable to staitistical analysis.

    Salute the out of body performance from last night but don’t think it says anything about whether Scrivens is a true #1 or even a decent backup.

  187. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think the Oilers will end up overpaying Scrivens, because Oilers, and because I think they clearly view him as the cream of the ufa g group though you could certainly make equal arguments for both Greiss and Khudobin based on the same sample sizes.

    I think Scrivens is the right choice, at the right contract (think they’re better to overpay on price than term until they know what they have), predominantly cos they need some cash to partner him up with the right 1B. If they assume Brossoit as the 1B option, I will scream bloody blue murder.

    Dan Ellis is the classic cautionary tale for appraising G on small sample size.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8468540#&navid=nhl-search

    .924 sv pct his first 44 games with the Preds and he hasn’t approached that level since.

    Conversely, Sather made a bet on Ranford after only 45 GPs with the B’s and that worked out pretty damn well.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8450651#&navid=nhl-search

    If I’m MacT, I get Scrivens played a ton btw now and the end of the season. During this time, I focus on his fundamentals to see if the performance looks sustainable. Is the positioning sound, the rebound control, lateral movement, etc.? Scriven’s positioning and angles were stellar last night and that’s crucial for him as he’s not a huge guy (by current NHL goalie standards).

    He has a lot of the intangibles (smart, vocal, reflexes, calm). I think the real question now is whether he can hold up under the workload of a starter. They’re going nowhere with Brz as their #1 option, so they better start finding this out about Scrivens now. Screw Dallas’ W/L (he’s primarily fixing bad habits now anyway), play this kid til he drops and find out if he’s the G of the future or not.

  188. Captain Smarmy says:

    VOR,

    I’m with you. Pretty much every signing is a bet that ranges from close to a sure thing to down right foolish.

    But Scrivens just might be one of those guys with enough good markers but enough unknowns that you can get a pretty solid deal from him as he is trading for some security. Sign him to a one year deal and you might have a guy who goes super nova and costs you another million a year in cap to sign longer term.

    The more certain a player is of his abilities the more his agent should be saying “No deals.”

  189. Andy P says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think the Oilers will end up overpaying Scrivens, because Oilers, and because I think they clearly view him as the cream of the ufa g group though you could certainly make equal arguments for both Greiss and Khudobin based on the same sample sizes. I think Scrivens is the right choice, at the right contract (think they’re better to overpay on price than term until they know what they have), predominantly cos they need some cash to partner him up with the right 1B. If they assume Brossoit as the 1B option, I will scream bloody blue murder. Dan Ellis is the classic cautionary tale for appraising G on small sample size. http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8468540#&navid=nhl-search.924 sv pct his first 44 games with the Preds and he hasn’t approached that level since. Conversely, Sather made a bet on Ranford after only 45 GPs with the B’s and that worked out pretty damn well. http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8450651#&navid=nhl-searchIf I’m MacT, I get Scrivens played a ton btw now and the end of the season. During this time, I focus on his fundamentals to see if the performance looks sustainable. Is the positioning sound, the rebound control, lateral movement, etc.? Scriven’s positioning and angles were stellar last night and that’s crucial for him as he’s not a huge guy (by current NHL goalie standards). He has a lot of the intangibles (smart, vocal, reflexes, calm). I think the real question now is whether he can hold up under the workload of a starter. They’re going nowhere with Brz as their #1 option, so they better start finding this out about Scrivens now. Screw Dallas’ W/L (he’s primarily fixing bad habits now anyway), play this kid til he drops and find out if he’s the G of the future or not.

    They should see what he has before Chabot brings him down to Oiler’s G standards.

  190. Woodguy says:

    All,

    Eric T took a swing at projecting goalies here:

    http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/1/21/5329992/nhl-stats-projections-data

  191. Big Dan says:

    Scrivens would be crazy to sign a one-year deal. He had save percentages of .915 and .917 behind a shoddy Toronto defense. He then impressed in both LA and Edmonton so far this season. This guy is on the rise.

    I think the BASE is Dubnyk’s 2 -year $3.5M/year deal. If they sign him for that, I’d be thrilled IF they acquire some insurance. I was beating Khudonin and Greiss’ drums last summer – somebody like that. Or an experienced guy like Bryzgalov for $2M.

    I’d even approach $4M/year if Scrivens continues his strong play – as long as it’s a short term deal.

    This way, they’re covered if Scrivens can’t handle the #1 workload or falls back to earth.

    I may have been the only one thrilled about the Matt Hendricks acquisition that day ($1.85M will be nothing in a few years when the cap is $80M). I knew he’d be terrific. And I was REALLY happy with the Scrivens pickup – this MacT guy knows what he is doing.

    MacT, sign him asap. Scrivens is a gooder. Oiler fans are typically kind to their goalies and they’re going to fall in love with him. Especially after MacT acquires two veterans for the blueline this summer.

  192. steveb12344 says:

    Big Dan:
    Scrivens would be crazy to sign a one-year deal.He had save percentages of .915 and .917 behind a shoddy Toronto defense.He then impressed in both LA and Edmonton so far this season.This guy is on the rise.

    I think the BASE is Dubnyk’s 2 -year $3.5M/year deal.If they sign him for that, I’d be thrilled IF they acquire some insurance.I was beating Khudonin and Greiss’ drums last summer – somebody like that.Or an experienced guy like Bryzgalov for $2M.

    I’d even approach $4M/year if Scrivens continues his strong play – as long as it’s a short term deal.

    This way, they’re covered if Scrivens can’t handle the #1 workload or falls back to earth.

    I may have been the only one thrilled about the Matt Hendricks acquisition that day ($1.85M will be nothing in afew years when the cap is $80M).I knew he’d be terrific.And I was REALLY happy with the Scrivens pickup – this MacT guy knows what he is doing.

    MacT, sign him asap.Scrivens is a gooder.Oiler fans are typically kind to their goalies and they’re going to fall in love with him.Especially after MacT acquires two veterans for the blueline this summer.

    The thing with Scrivens is that he’s only started 47 games in the NHL, and never more than 17 in one season prior to this one. As much as he’s looked good so far, he is still relatively unproven as an NHL Goalie. He needs to show what he can do as a starter for an entire season before they can throw starter money at him.

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