CATCH A FIRE

Tomorrow morning, Hockey Canada will announce their 25-man men’s winter roster. Taylor Hall should be on it. I don’t think he’ll make the list.

  • Dallas Eakins:Taylor wants to win number one, and number two he wants to be the best left winger in hockey.”

Hall has struggled this season, his CorsiON has him well back of last season, but the dynamic winger pushes the river at the offensive end of the rink. He may be there less often this season, and for shorter periods, but once there he remains one of the best in the game.

5×5/60 NHL

5x5 per 60 nhl

This is via extra skater and shows Hall as the second most productive LW in the NHL at 5×5 scoring. That’s not the entire game, but if we agree the hardest thing to do is score goals (and toughest at even strength), this is a player you have to consider. I’m reading a lot about his defensive errors and lack of a complete game, but the Canadians will have those types in droves (Bergeron, Sharp) and need to have all elements on their roster.

If we take baseball as an example, great defense up the middle is vital to success: Canada’s catchers and pitchers and middle infield should be great with the glove; however, their cornermen (1b, 3b, rf, lf) push the offense and drive results. That’s Taylor Hall. Put him on a line with one of those glorious two-way guys, or hell man throw him out there with Crosby, and maybe we see magic.

LAST 10 GAMES

last10

Hall is stretching out offensively now, finding the range and passing teammates overall. He’s on pace for 80+ points and represents high octane offense on a team that is miles from being the best offensive group in their division.

 marincin ferguson2

 

  • Eakins on Marincin: “I think when you get the first callup you’re nervous, you don’t want to make a mistake. I think you play hesitant. When we sent him back Craig and I sat with him and gave him a very clear outline about what we need from him. Most of it comes from being assertive, and playing the way he did in the AHL. He’s come back and done that for the most part. He’s still got a long way to go, he’s got a lot to learn about the game. The thing he gives us back there is size, he’s not a heavy guy yet, he’s still looks like a boy, but his range with that stick he can get us out of trouble with that long, long range.”

It’s nice to see this young man playing well, and it gives us another item to talk about for next season. Eakins points above are reflective of a guy who is trying to establish himself as an NHL player. The timing is good, if he stays for the rest of the season he’ll play 40+ NHL games and perhaps the Oilers can run with Marincin and one other young defenseman (Nurse or Ekblad or Klefbom) as part of next year’s group.

MAKING TRADES

mact and people

 

In many ways, the Oilers are in a period where they don’t really have to do anything. The team isn’t going to finish near the playoffs, they’re dead in the water. I wonder if they’ll wait until the off-season before adding pieces, or, with much to do, start making those moves earlier. Perhaps the Friedman comment Saturday night signals a major shakeup, and perhaps that happens before the season’s final bell.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

wood

This morning at 10, we get back to normal. Thank God. Scheduled to appear:

  • Tyler Dellow from mc79hockey. We will discuss Hall at the Olympics and what the Oilers can get out of the rest of this season.
  • Travis Yost from Hockeybuzz. The Senators have won 4 in a row and can see the Leafs straight ahead.
  • Corey Pronman from ESPN and Hockey Prospectus. WJ’s and 2014 draft.
  • Alan Hull from Copper and Blue. Gagner’s name being out there, and Marincin’s showing.

10-1260 text, twitter @Lowetide_ hope you tune in!

LOWETIDE OLYMPIC TEAM

  • Goalies: Carey Price (starter), Mike Smith, Roberto Luongo
  • Defense: Drew Doughty, Duncan Keith, PK Subban, Shea Weber, Alex Pietrangelo, Marc-Edouardo Vlasic, Dan Hamhuis, Kris Letang
  • Forwards: Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Thornton, Steve Stamkos, Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Martin St. Louis, Corey Perry, John Tavares, Claude Giroux, Patrick Sharp, Logan Couture

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106 Responses to "CATCH A FIRE"

  1. goldenchild says:

    Interesting team LT, I dont think our guy is even in the conversation based on team results and I think thats not the right way to pick this team. Couture is a guy I still can’t get my head around, are his numbers great because he plays on a great team or are they a great team because Logan Couture is one of their best players? I’m clueless but I defer to your knowledge there.

    One thing that kills me about the guys that pick these teams is that they can seemingly have it both ways. I saw B. Sutter yesterday make comments of playing teams with more skill in the World Jrs and spoke to development of players. Sorry but when you leave skill at home which that team clearly did for “character” and “grit” and role players you cant complain about skill.

    If the Olympic team brass does the same well then they deserve what they get, if you havent learned from ‘Rob Zamunering’ of the past then I have no sympathy for you.

  2. Hammers says:

    Hall should make it as much for the future as this year . He will be a top winger for years to come but the problem the last 10 years is the young are overlooked (Stamkos) . As for McT and trades I think if the right deal is there at least one or two may happen this month . If they can start to get the look they want now it will be better for next season .Also hope they let Marincin learn on the job for remainder of season . I said at the beginning he could surpass Klefbom who I now think may be a movable piece . Marincin & Nurse would give us size on our “D” we haven’t seen for years .

  3. RexLibris says:

    As much as we all discuss whether Hall can or should make the Olympic team here, I think the writing is on the wall.

    That being said, I believe the real debate will be whether he can make the Men’s World team in the IIHF tournament in May. Given the names likely to be available at that time, if he is left off of that squad for any reason other than injury then we’ve got reason for a serious grudge against the selection process.

    One can make a not-unreasonable argument that come May Hockey Canada should invite the Oilers’ three kids over as a line to plug-and-play into that tournament.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This:

    In many ways, the Oilers are in a period where they don’t really have to do anything. The team isn’t going to finish near the playoffs, they’re dead in the water. I wonder if they’ll wait until the off-season before adding pieces, or, with much to do, start making those moves earlier. Perhaps the Friedman comment Saturday night signals a major shakeup, and perhaps that happens before the season’s final bell.

    is a bit of a reversal from you LT. You’ve been pretty “Now!” “Yesterday” “PDQ” for weeks if not months now.

    The basic arguments are the same: make the trade now because this team needs to head north VS. the year is pooched no point in getting shafted by an unfriendly market, wait until the deadline or Summer.

    It seems you’ve come around a bit to the latter argument this morning. I wonder if that has something do with winning :)

  5. Braden28 says:

    That 5×5/60 list has at least 4 players maybe 5 who won’t make it to the Olympics. Shows there is more to it than scoring.

  6. Dee Dee says:

    Benn would seem to be ahead of Hall a bit by the stats you are showing Lowetide.

    Guessing the young guns are getting a bit of a knock regarding their defensive play, or lack thereof.

    And how about Seguin! First line minutes seem to be agreeing with him!

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “It’s nice to see this young man playing well, and it gives us another item to talk about for next season. Eakins points above are reflective of a guy who is trying to establish himself as an NHL player. The timing is good, if he stays for the rest of the season he’ll play 40+ NHL games and perhaps the Oilers can run with Marincin and one other young defenseman (Nurse or Ekblad or Klefbom) as part of next year’s group.”

    Is there a CBA issue with Marincin if he plays out the season (that would be 46 games played by my count). IIRC from the Klefbom issue, if he is on the NHL roster for a certain number of games (just on the roster, not necessarily playing), something like 40, he loses an RFA year. Do we know if Marincin faces the same deal?

    I’ve been loving him this year. Last year he gave me high hopes and he’s easily cleared them. That said, my “high hopes” still have him starting on an NHL roster full time and handling it in the 15/16 season, i.e., something like 20-25 games this season, 40-60 games the next and full time in 15/16.

    I think that is a reasonable timetable for him. I also think if such an approach is taken with all the D (bit by bit… not all at once), we can forego the rampant concern that they all show up at once and unprepared.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Forwards: Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Thornton, Steve Stamkos, Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Martin St. Louis, Corey Perry, John Tavares, Claude Giroux, Patrick Sharp, Logan Couture”

    One might say you’ve got a bias against Dallas (spits) and their talented duo.

    ———–
    Seguin’s year ought to be noted to all those ready to give up on young players with wonky development paths and/or excitable extracurricular lives… also heartening to those that believe “getting a second opinion” is often a huge catalyst for success.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    This:

    is a bit of a reversal from you LT. You’ve been pretty “Now!” “Yesterday” “PDQ” for weeks if not months now.

    The basic arguments are the same: make the trade now because this team needs to head north VS. the year is pooched no point in getting shafted by an unfriendly market, wait until the deadline or Summer.

    It seems you’ve come around a bit to the latter argument this morning. I wonder if that has something do with winning :)

    Actually, I’m still very impatient. Gagner being out there suggests MacT might be feeling the same way

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=24758&cmpid=blogheadlines

    same lines:

    Hall-RNH-Eberle

    Yakupov-Gagner-Perron

    Smyth-Gordon-Hemsky

    Gazdic/Joensuu-Arcobello-Jones

    Ference-J. Schultz

    Marincin-Petry

    N. Schultz-Hunt

    Belov

    Crazy to see Belov still in the cat box. Him and Hunt should swap.

  11. LMHF#1 says:

    I have to say I’m confused as to how Klefbom is even in the conversation at this point. Other than management deciding to push their man ahead, what would be the reason that he merits consideration? When was the last time an AHL defenseman with production that low made any kind of impact? Even a guy like Smid had pretty strong AHL numbers.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Actually, I’m still very impatient. Gagner being out there suggests MacT might be feeling the same way

    Ok. I’ll buy that.

    I’m definitely on the other side. Wait for the other guy to blink.

    I’m more of the opinion that MacT is gauging the market in the lead up to the deadline so he has an idea of what his options might be. In his call arounds he is letting a few more names be discussed.

    Similar to early in the season when he called around about goalies. He wasn’t buying, but he wanted to know what the price was in case he had to make a rush purchase down the road.

  13. Woodguy says:

    Seguin really jumps off the page there too.

    Never put up that kind of 5v5 production in BOS.

    13/14 3.07
    12/13 2.27
    11/12 2.69
    10/11 1.44

    I wonder if its a one off, or what comes from playing with better “offensive” players on a team where you are the feature offence (Krejci’s line is the featured offence in BOS)

    Seguin’s 4 most common forwards this year:

    Benn, Nichushkin, Peverley, Cole (Benn almost 100% Nichushkin 50%)

    Seguin’s 4 most common forwards 2 years previous in BOS:

    Bergeron, Marchand, (vast majority) then Lucic, Krejci

    Looks like its usage too.

    Seguin, Bergeron, Marchand was the shut down line for the B’s.

    I wonder what his results would have been if Seguin was a featured offensive player like Hall has been since the start of his career.

    I bet the Taylor/Tyler debate would be much closer.

    Its close this year and they are among the NHL elite in driving offence 5v5.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1:
    I have to say I’m confused as to how Klefbom is even in the conversation at this point. Other than management deciding to push their man ahead, what would be the reason that he merits consideration? When was the last time an AHL defenseman with production that low made any kind of impact? Even a guy like Smid had pretty strong AHL numbers.

    Smid’s AHL production needs a lot more context than that.

    His total AHL numbers:
    79 4-29-33

    Mostly from one season in Portland (3-25-28). All 3 of those goal came on the PP:

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/smidla01.html

    That means he was getting considerable PP time in Portland (god knows why), despite his 3.6 shooting percentage (which tracks with his career SH% of 3.5).

    For all D, point totals are heavily reliant upon whether you play on the PP or not.

    Klefbom is not seeing any PP time this season. If he was, even with his present lack of offence, he’d probably have numbers close to that one year of Smid’s.

  15. spoiler says:

    Saturday night Friedman comments?

  16. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Ok. I’ll buy that.

    I’m definitely on the other side. Wait for the other guy to blink.

    I’m more of the opinion that MacT is gauging the market in the lead up to the deadline so he has an idea of what his options might be. In his call arounds he is letting a few more names be discussed.

    Similar to early in the season when he called around about goalies. He wasn’t buying, but he wanted to know what the price was in case he had to make a rush purchase down the road.

    Should be the same criteria either way.

    1) Does the trade add what is missing
    2) Does the trade remove what the Oilers have in abundance
    3) Is the cost reasonable

    Many posts (not you) on hear say “Can’t trade now, MacT is over a barrell!!”

    While part of that has some truth it ignores that 29 other GMs want to improve their roster as well and there may be a fit with a handful of them.

  17. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Smid’s AHL production needs a lot more context than that.

    His total AHL numbers:
    794-29-33

    Mostly from one season in Portland (3-25-28). All 3 of those goal came on the PP:

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/smidla01.html

    That means he was getting considerable PP time in Portland (god knows why), despite his 3.6 shooting percentage (which tracks with his career SH% of 3.5).

    For all D, point totals are heavily reliant upon whether you play on the PP or not.

    Klefbom is not seeing any PP time this season. If he was, even with his present lack of offence, he’d probably have numbers close to that one year of Smid’s.

    This is only relevant if there’s anyone out there who answers my question about low producing D coming in and making a difference. If you’re a good hockey player, you tend to get on the scoresheet even if you wind up being nothing but a defensive stalwart in the NHL.

    These stats are alarming to me unless the team desperately needs another Alex Henry.

  18. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/01/05/edmonton-oilers-are-looking-to-move-sam-gagner-cbcs-elliotte-friedman-says/

    Thank you. Guessed it was about a trade so went to Spectors, which saved me from visiting what was the worst designed website in the world till Obamacare came along. Not to mention reading Staples (I like his stores, though). Seriously Postmedia, your site is awful.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Should be the same criteria either way.

    1) Does the trade add what is missing
    2) Does the trade remove what the Oilers have in abundance
    3) Is the cost reasonable

    Many posts (not you) on hear say “Can’t trade now, MacT is over a barrell!!”

    While part of that has some truth it ignores that 29 other GMs want to improve their roster as well and there may be a fit with a handful of them.

    Oh, for sure.

    I wouldn’t put a hard and fast rule on this. If Gardiner is available for Gagner yesterday, you pull the trigger. There is no sense in waiting if the deal you want is available now.

    As a rule of thumb though, he is more likely to get a better return on NHL players when the market opens up around the deadline and Summer.

    But certainly, never let that rule of thumb spite your hand.

  20. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: While part of that has some truth it ignores that 29 other GMs want to improve their roster as well and there may be a fit with a handful of them.

    How many of them are under-performing expectations to the degree the Oil are? I would say none. So the bet will be MacT blinks first.

    If there is a good hockey trade out there, by all means do it, but the environment is not in MacT’s favour right now.

  21. spoiler says:

    Question is…

    How important is that 2014 1st rounder?

    1. Important enough to continue to suck at this point and guarantee a top 3 pick.
    2. Nice, but not important enough to want to finish bottom 3. Improve your team through a player trade and don’t worry about it.
    3. Trade the effer right now and bring in immediate help.

  22. LMHF#1 says:

    You trade the #1 no matter where it is in the draft. Acquiring another player with a giant learning curve is counterproductive. GMs also appear to get fixated on certain prospects and pay a premium. Time to have a Mogilny moment.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: This is only relevant if there’s anyone out there who answers my question about low producing D coming in and making a difference. If you’re a good hockey player, you tend to get on the scoresheet even if you wind up being nothing but a defensive stalwart in the NHL.

    These stats are alarming to me unless the team desperately needs another Alex Henry.

    It is relevant because you claimed “Even a guy like Smid had pretty strong AHL numbers.”

    Well… he did so because he was on the PP. Put Klefbom on the PP in OKC and watch his number jump.

    As far as D “making a difference” without putting up points, have a look at this list:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=20&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20#snip=f

    or, from last year:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=20&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20#snip=f

    Look at players scoring about .55 P/60 5×5 and lower (about the bottom 3rd in scoring on both lists). Lots of useful players on that list.

  24. Caramel Obvious says:

    Braden28:
    That 5×5/60 list has at least 4 players maybe 5 who won’t make it to the Olympics. Shows there is more to it than scoring.

    What it shows is that there is no rhyme or reason to the selection process. Once again they are going to select the best “team,” a magical concept that means nothing, instead of taking the best players.

    Repeat after me. These people are stupid. Very, very, stupid.

    I’m not even sure Hall should be on the team. But I am sure that there will be no coherent reason why he isn’t.

    You can’t blame the losing. John Taveres will make the team.

    You can’t even say teams come into it. Why is Couture going to make the team and Thornton not?

    On what planet is Subban no the bubble?

    How is the ability to play with Crosby a special attribute that no one else has?

    What does Matt Duchene bring that Hall and Seguin don’t?

    Why are you talking about roles? There is no such thing as roles in hockey. The whole idea of a grind line is impossibly stupid. A grind line isn’t something you choose to have of your own volition. It is something that is forced upon you by a lack of skill.

    Speaking of which, Brent Sutter has a lot of goddamn nerve saying the problem is lack of skill. Whose fault is that jackass? You and your cronies are the guys who chose to leave skill at home in favour of your secret formula.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler:
    Question is…

    How important is that 2014 1st rounder?

    1.Important enough to continue to suck at this point and guarantee a top 3 pick.
    2.Nice, but not important enough to want to finish bottom 3. Improve your team through a player trade and don’t worry about it.
    3.Trade the effer right now and bring in immediate help.

    2 for me.

    I think you try to fix this team as soon as a real fix is available (which I think means you have to wait until the deadline or Summer).

    And, I think you don’t trade that pick until you know what it is and can get the most value for it, which probably means at the draft table, by which point, hey maybe you covet Reinhart, Ekblad, etc. too much to trade.

  26. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: How many of them are under-performing expectations to the degree the Oil are?I would say none.So the bet will be MacT blinks first.

    If there is a good hockey trade out there, by all means do it, but the environment is not in MacT’s favour right now.

    How much pressure is there in “market X” to do “Y”?

    Oilers have a sold out building, so despite the shitty record and bitching and moaning by the fanbase/MSM (all of which is justified) I’d say the pressure isn’t on MacT as much as some GMs, unless the pressure is organizational, and not external.

  27. RMGS says:

    The Oilers are most likely to be represented in Sochi by the Pardubice Prince, even if the best LW in the NHL should also be there. I’m also curious to see if Yakupov makes the Russian team. He’s probably up against Nichushkin as the extra F, though I don’t know the KHL enough to guess at candidates from the talent pool there. If Belov makes it, the Russian team has depth issues at D.

  28. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: 2 for me.I think you try to fix this team as soon as a real fix is available (which I think means you have to wait until the deadline or Summer).And, I think you don’t trade that pick until you know what it is and can get the most value for it, which probably means at the draft table, by which point, hey maybe you covet Reinhart, Ekblad, etc. too much to trade.

    The deadline is the worst time to improve the team except by adding draft picks, which, to tell you the truth, is probably the way I’d go. When I look at the number of picks successfully rebuilt teams had, it looked like the plan was: “we know this is a lottery with a lot of luck so accumulate a lot of picks, throw them against the wall of Time and see what sticks”. The Oilers didn’t really accumulate excess picks like that till last year’s draft. Another Tambo error.

  29. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    Look at players scoring about .55 P/60 5×5 and lower (about the bottom 3rd in scoring on both lists). Lots of useful players on that list.

    And I’ve been referencing putting up points in lower leagues, not the NHL. For the most part, those useful players did just that. I’m looking for exceptions on D who did not produce in the AHL but were still valuable NHLers (let’s say in the Klefbom scenario, at least a top 4 dman).

  30. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Oilers have a sold out building, so despite the shitty record and bitching and moaning by the fanbase/MSM (all of which is justified) I’d say the pressure isn’t on MacT as much as some GMs, unless the pressure is organizational, and not external.

    I disagree. I would say the Oilers have enormous external and internal pressure, despite the sold-out building.

    There are other teams we can throw into that group though… NYI, possibly NAS, WIN.

  31. knighttown says:

    Here’s the number you didn’t include LT.

    Hall GA/60 is 3.86. That’s 2nd worst on the team to Nail Yakupov and 10th worst in the entire NHL. He’s done that playing with good players against the NHL’s best but I’d suggest playing with good players against the NHL’s best is precisely what he’d be doing in Sochi. Couture is also playing tough minutes and his GA/60 is 2.3. Sharps is 1.91.

    You can start to pile on reasons; defensemen suck!, played centre! had an injury!, but in the end his performance isn’t even close to good enough. Add to that the flop over at the Worlds last year and he’s miles away.

    Believe me, I wish he was there and I’d probably take him. I think that if Hall and Couture changed places the results would be mirror images but that’s a total guess and Hockey Canada ain’t about to start guessing.

    Whatever happened with Lindy Ruff sealed his fate as that’s one amazing way to show your worth to the brass. If he dominates over there this year he starts to lay the groundwork for 2018.

  32. bookje says:

    spoiler: Idisagree.I would say the Oilers have enormous external and internal pressure, despite the sold-out building.

    There are other teams we can throw into that group though… NYI, possibly NAS, WIN.

    I thinks it hard to be sure. One argument would be that MacT is going to have time to develop the team and so Katz and Lowe will give him at least another year. This year is lost, so there is no pressure. The other argument is that the key players on the Oilers may be getting ready to request trades – that would be the only source of meaningful pressure. Without talking to them, it’s hard to know where things are at.

  33. bookje says:

    I would add that I agree with WG that there has to be some meaningful trade that improves this team. There must be someone with a few too many apples when we have too many oranges.

  34. Ducey says:

    spoiler:
    Question is…

    How important is that 2014 1st rounder?

    1.Important enough to continue to suck at this point and guarantee a top 3 pick.
    2.Nice, but not important enough to want to finish bottom 3. Improve your team through a player trade and don’t worry about it.
    3.Trade the effer right now and bring in immediate help.

    Trading the rights to the the #1 or #2 overall pick for some immediate help is exactly what this team needs to do – if it wants to doom itself to mediocrity.

    The player(s) you bring in for immediate help would be by definition an established NHL player (or he wouldn’t be much help). He is likely to have some wart(s) most likely characterised by a hefty contract or pending free agency.

    In two years, that player will likely be gone. Ekblad will be looking like a stud.

    If you have Ekblad and Nurse, you might have your top pairing for the next decade.

  35. Ducey says:

    Question: If Hall made the Oly team, would he be the youngest player on the team?

  36. LMHF#1 says:

    Ducey: Trading the rights to the the #1 or #2 overall pick for some immediate help is exactly what this team needs to do – if it wants to doom itself to mediocrity.

    The player(s) you bring in for immediate help would be by definition an established NHL player (or he wouldn’t be much help).He is likely to have some wart(s) most likely characterised by a hefty contract or pending free agency.

    In two years, that player will likely be gone.Ekblad will be looking like a stud.

    If you have Ekblad and Nurse, you might have your top pairing for the next decade.

    Two years? Doubtful.

    And that pair will anchor a team that can’t win because its top forwards have left for greener pastures and the wait is on for more draft picks.

    Not the way this should work.

  37. spoiler says:

    bookje: I thinks it hard to be sure. One argument would be that MacT is going to have time to develop the team and so Katz and Lowe will give him at least another year.

    And they ain’t gonna watch him stand pat (stand Tamb?) for that year and draft his way out. However I do agree in that I think the pressure is more external. But as you point out, it’s hard to say… hard to say whether or not they care their team is the laughingstock of national media.

    By the way, TSN doesn’t even include Hall as an outside shot for the team.

    Knighttown’s comment above is dead on. Not enough D to his game yet.

  38. spoiler says:

    Ducey: Question: If Hall made the Oly team, would he be the youngest player on the team?

    Hard to say… who are the other players picked, lol?

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: The deadline is the worst time to improve the team except by adding draft picks, which, to tell you the truth, is probably the way I’d go.When I look at the number of picks successfully rebuilt teams had, it looked like the plan was:“we know this is a lottery with a lot of luck so accumulate a lot of picks, throw them against the wall of Time and see what sticks”.The Oilers didn’t really accumulate excess picks like that till last year’s draft.Another Tambo error.

    Definitely not the worst time.

    It’s just a specific context. NHL players that get dealt come from teams offloading or adding by subtracting. But, there’s a market there. Players of value get moved every year.

    That said, acquisition isn’t a one off, the Summer and the draft table (as I mentioned) are good places to operate. And, it is not mutually exclusive to get an NHL player at the deadline and offload an NHL player(s) for picks at the same time.

    I think we all agree about Tambo… stocking the cupboards and offloading all the spare parts would have been a great help.

  40. goldenchild says:

    Oh forgot this off the top but Congrats to Ales on going to Olympics, should be a fun experience for him, excited to see him play meaningful games.

  41. Truth says:

    To those advocating trading the 1st round pick this year, what does a second overall pick in this year’s draft get for a return in trade? Or what do you hope it would get in trade?

    Ekblad (if he slips to 2) could be the next Pronger, or he could be the next Barker. What is fair value for holding that lottery ticket, and is it worth losing that opportunity? Gardiner? Ehrhoff? Kulikov?

  42. srisribillyg says:

    LT,

    Just wondering if there’s another way to frame the “Is Taylor Hall an Olympian question”. I’m not as versed in advanced analytics as many of the posters here, but shouldn’t the equation be:

    what you create
    minus
    what you give up

    So while 5×5 P/60 is a useful metric for pure production, it doesn’t really show us the full picture.

    I had a quick look at Extra Skater, hoping to find 5×5 PA/60 or 5×5 GA/60 and the only thing I could find was GF%. If you look at 2012/13, you see that this number is 53.8%, which seems consistent with what we know about pushing the river, although I haven’t checked to see how that compares against other elite players.

    This year, however, his GF% number has cratered to 43.6%, which seems to be a pretty substantial dip. And consistent with how we’ve “seen him so-so”.

    Is this the answer?

    I’d love to run the rest of the numbers myself, but I just don’t have the time right now.

    Trying to move the conversation forward, as incremental as it may be!

  43. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Definitely not the worst time. It’s just a specific context. NHL players that get dealt come from teams offloading or adding by subtracting. But, there’s a market there. Players of value get moved every year. That said, acquisition isn’t a one off, the Summer and the draft table (as I mentioned) are good places to operate. And, it is not mutually exclusive to get an NHL player at the deadline and offload an NHL player(s) for picks at the same time. I think we all agree about Tambo… stocking the cupboards and offloading all the spare parts would have been a great help.

    A team off-loading players of value is off-loading them to contenders for good picks, not to other poor teams for other players (otherwise why wait for the deadline). Contenders are not off-loading players of value. There may be a trade at that time, but it would be atypical.

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=20&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=D&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20#snip=f

    First guy I looked up, for 83′s sake:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=29154

    I imagine most of the cases would have higher scoring minor pro numbers… because they’d all probably be on the PP.

    At any rate, it’s your hobby horse, I’ll let you ride it.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: A team off-loading players of value is off-loading them to contenders for good picks, not to other poor teams for other players (otherwise why wait for the deadline). Contenders are not off-loading players of value.There may be a trade at that time, but it would be atypical.

    A team off-loading players for picks doesn’t care if the trading partner is a contender or not (usually it is because contenders are stocking up for cup runs, but that is besides the point). They care about getting the best package in return, which I agree is future oriented (ie. picks and/or prospects).

    EDM can deal in that situation.

    I never said anything about dealing players between two poor teams. Though it is something that happens and at the deadline no less:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/02/27/oilers-trade-tom-gilbert-for-nick-schultz-swap-offence-for-pure-defence/

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=29154

    that’s a terrible example you fool!

    only 5 gps in the AHL. misread his 00-01 stat lines

  47. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: First guy I looked up, for 83′s sake:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=29154

    I imagine most of the cases would have higher scoring minor pro numbers… because they’d all probably be on the PP.

    At any rate, it’s your hobby horse, I’ll let you ride it.

    And he proves my point, though not in the AHL because he only played 5 games. 32 in 54 his last year of junior. I’m not trying to be difficult here, I just wonder if there’s a player out there who has done what Klefbom has and went on to a successful career. I don’t see it yet.

    Lidstrom is often cited as a low-scoring example, but even he scored post-draft in the SEL.

  48. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: that’s a terrible example you fool!

    only 5 gps in the AHL. misread his 00-01 stat lines

    Beat me to it.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    knighttown: You can start to pile on reasons; defensemen suck!, played centre! had an injury!, but in the end his performance isn’t even close to good enough. Add to that the flop over at the Worlds last year and he’s miles away.

    This might be a “reason” that is relevant:

    http://www.extraskater.com/players_all/on-ice?pos=F&sort=save_pct&min_gp=75

  50. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Ok. I’ll buy that.

    I’m definitely on the other side. Wait for the other guy to blink.

    I’m more of the opinion that MacT is gauging the market in the lead up to the deadline so he has an idea of what his options might be. In his call arounds he is letting a few more names be discussed.

    Similar to early in the season when he called around about goalies. He wasn’t buying, but he wanted to know what the price was in case he had to make a rush purchase down the road.

    He’s also used the line “keep your powder dry” quite a few times. So I think LT wants something done pdq, but not foolishly so.

    For me it comes down to the difference between initiating action and completing it. I think LT wants MacT to be aggressive on initiating action, taking steps (as opposed to his predecessor who first would strike a committee on whether steps ought to be taken and if so how many and in what direction, after which he would evaluate the responses relative to the current market atmosphere before returning the committee for further review) and then when the time comes make the move.

  51. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: And he proves my point, though not in the AHL because he only played 5 games. 32 in 54 his last year of junior. I’m not trying to be difficult here, I just wonder if there’s a player out there who has done what Klefbom has and went on to a successful career. I don’t see it yet.

    Lidstrom is often cited as a low-scoring example, but even he scored post-draft in the SEL.

    It’s a definite area of concern. No foolin!

    But he was never drafted to score points. And, he’s got a lot of track left to run to figure things out.

  52. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    What has to be factored in on the discussion of trade of our #1 pick is the collection of #1′s we have already accumulated. That extended down cycle and the stocking it allowed dictates to me that we need to move towards rounding out the balance we need via trades not targeting specific potential future talent in the crap shoot of the draft. If our core isn’t the core we need to elevate to elite, than put them in play and get what you think you need in hockey trades. I DON’T advocate that – I like our core and they will emerge dominant with more time. But the idea of selecting Ekblad causes me to clench as I have no appetite to leave our present young core dangling while we select future potential that will take years to contribute. A high draft pick has real value and will allow you to get seasoned complementary talent that is relevant now. This needs to be done. Nurse is 3 more years away from being an impact NHL’er and even that is conjecture. Klefbom? Well….I just don’t know. Do I want another one that is a year further delayed – no. We were all so giddy when we luckily moved up to select Yak at #1. What has that meant today? Prolonged frustration waiting for a young talent to develop – sucks for us, sucks for him. He’s two more years away from making a solid impact in the NHL – maybe. RNH and Hall are just beginning to be able to handle their top line competition and not get smoked (I think that tilts next year) and that takes so long. Trading the pick is the most sensible transaction we can make to elevate this team for the present – like next year. Having said all this, I think MacT’s mind is made up on doing just this – so long as he can get a player he covets.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Dmen Production:
    What has more purpose?
    Preveting G?
    Or getting points?

    Dmen points?
    there are even points and PP points.
    Looking at the last three years

    All points:
    Top 5 – 0.70ppg
    top 10 – 0.60ppg
    top 20 – 0.50ppg
    top 40 – 0.39 ppg
    top 75 0.26 ppg

    Even points
    top 5 – 0.39 ppg
    top 10 – 0.33ppg
    top 20 – 0.29 ppg
    top 40- 0.25ppg
    top 75 – 0.21ppg

    the diffrence between top 20 and top 75 even production Dmen is 1 point every 9 games.

    Power play points
    Top 5 – 0.34 ppg
    top 10 – .30 ppg
    Top 20 – 0.27 ppg
    top 30 – .22 ppg
    Top 40 – 0.18 ppg
    top 75 – 0.06 ppg

    Give me good even points producing Dmen who protect the Funnel/Box
    The best Cap Dmen.
    ar Dmen who have elite EVGA by reduced results and shots from inside 20 ft.
    Top 75 in even point production and specifically assists.
    Elite PKGA results.

    Large infuence on the game without having to pay them cause they get lots of points from average
    production on the PP.

  54. hoser313 says:

    LMHF#1: And he proves my point, though not in the AHL because he only played 5 games. 32 in 54 his last year of junior. I’m not trying to be difficult here, I just wonder if there’s a player out there who has done what Klefbom has and went on to a successful career. I don’t see it yet.

    Lidstrom is often cited as a low-scoring example, but even he scored post-draft in the SEL.

    What about a player like Rob Scuderi? He only ever put up 15-25 points/year in the AHL. Almost no goals. Went on to become a very useful NHL defenceman to 2 cup-winning teams.

  55. LMHF#1 says:

    hoser313: What about a player like Rob Scuderi?He only ever put up 15-25 points/year in the AHL.Almost no goals.Went on to become a very useful NHL defenceman to 2 cup-winning teams.

    Scuderi’s totals are interesting – he had 23 in 75 at age 22 in the AHL. So he was older than Klefbom but definitely wound up with better numbers than Oscar is tracking for this season. In the NCAA he had two strong point producing seasons and two not so much. It is true the lack of goals is certainly there.

  56. Melman says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: A team off-loading players for picks doesn’t care if the trading partner is a contender or not (usually it is because contenders are stocking up for cup runs, but that is besides the point). They care about getting the best package in return, which I agree is future oriented (ie. picks and/or prospects).

    EDM can deal in that situation.

    I never said anything about dealing players between two poor teams. Though it is something that happens and at the deadline no less:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/02/27/oilers-trade-tom-gilbert-for-nick-schultz-swap-offence-for-pure-defence/

    The Olympics may add a bit of a wrinkle too at the deadline as it will be interesting to see which players get injured there, or on return after the additional fatigue. Can’t recall exactly what happened in 2010, but if memory serves there were some significant players that got nicked up.

  57. Numenius says:

    spoiler: The deadline is the worst time to improve the team except by adding draft picks, which, to tell you the truth, is probably the way I’d go.When I look at the number of picks successfully rebuilt teams had, it looked like the plan was:“we know this is a lottery with a lot of luck so accumulate a lot of picks, throw them against the wall of Time and see what sticks”.The Oilers didn’t really accumulate excess picks like that till last year’s draft.Another Tambo error.

    St. Louis improved their team pretty well at the deadline last year trading their 1st for Bouwmeester.

    One of their top 10 trades ever, apparently.

    My idea of trading Klefbom for Bouwmeester at the time doesn’t look so bad now, either.

  58. RMGS says:

    “Edmonton OilersVerified account ‏@EdmontonOilers

    Huge congrats to #Oilers winger Ales Hemsky, officially named to the Czech squad for the 2014 Winter Olympics! pic.twitter.com/eLXNDmyKCx”

    Smid also made it.

  59. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    Here’s the number you didn’t include LT.

    Hall GA/60 is 3.86.That’s 2nd worst on the team to Nail Yakupov and 10th worst in the entire NHL.He’s done that playing with good players against the NHL’s best but I’d suggest playing with good players against the NHL’s best is precisely what he’d be doing in Sochi.Couture is also playing tough minutes and his GA/60 is 2.3.Sharps is 1.91.

    You can start to pile on reasons; defensemen suck!, played centre! had an injury!, but in the end his performance isn’t even close to good enough.Add to that the flop over at the Worlds last year and he’s miles away.

    Believe me, I wish he was there and I’d probably take him.I think that if Hall and Couture changed places the results would be mirror images but that’s a total guess and Hockey Canada ain’t about to start guessing.

    Whatever happened with Lindy Ruff sealed his fate as that’s one amazing way to show your worth to the brass.If he dominates over there this year he starts to lay the groundwork for 2018.

    Last night was an interesting example of how Dmen can impact your numbers imo.

    Hall had an awful night via corsi, a team worst 17.4% 5v5 close and 2nd worst 5v5 all with 21.9%

    Let’s look at his TOI with each pairing and then his corsi with that pairing to get CF/60 of last night’s game.

    Mike’s awesome site provides us with the corsi with each team member: http://www.boysonthebus.com/2014/01/05/game-stats-oilerslightning-jan-5/

    Extraskater provides us with 5v5 TOI with each player: http://www.extraskater.com/game/2014-01-05-lightning-oilers

    Hall 5v5 TOI w/ each Dman:

    J.Shultz 9.4min
    Ference 8.9min
    N.Shultz 3.4min
    Petry 3.2min
    Marincin 3.0min
    Hunt 2.7min

    Hall Net 5v5 Corsi with each Dman

    J.Shultz -7
    Ference -6
    N.Shultz -10
    Petry -2
    Marincin -2
    Hunt -9

    Now let’s combine them to get a Net Corsi/60

    J.Shultz -44.68
    Ference -40.45
    N.Shultz -176.47
    Petry -37.50
    Marincin -40
    Hunt -200

    One of these pairs in not like the other, one of these pairs just isn’t the same…….

    Oilers do not have a top Dpair.

    They have a 2nd pair, a 3rd pair and a AHL level pair.

    I firmly believe that forwards mostly drive Corsi For and that defence are the main driver in Corsi against.

    Better D and Hall is worlds better on the defensive stats imo.

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Numenius: St. Louis improved their team pretty well at the deadline last year trading their 1st for Bouwmeester.

    One of their top 10 trades ever, apparently.

    My idea of trading Klefbom for Bouwmeester at the time doesn’t look so bad now, either.

    That was a heck of a trade. 22OV and a pair of middling prospects for JBow.

    I hope MacT has that trade in mind when he goes whale hunting.

  61. Logan91 says:

    LMHF#1: And he proves my point, though not in the AHL because he only played 5 games. 32 in 54 his last year of junior. I’m not trying to be difficult here, I just wonder if there’s a player out there who has done what Klefbom has and went on to a successful career. I don’t see it yet.

    Lidstrom is often cited as a low-scoring example, but even he scored post-draft in the SEL.

    It’s Klefbom’ first season in North America after missing pretty much a full year due to injury. It’s not even half way through his first pro season and he’s already getting ragged on.

    Klefbom has never put up big points, and he wasn’t drafted to put up points. Give the guy a break, he needs time to develop and learn. He’s been nothing but cooperative and willing to do what it takes to learn and make it to the NHL, and has expressed that plenty of time in interviews.

    Management should have never hyped him up so much, but there is definitely a good player there.

  62. delooper says:

    bookje:
    I would add that I agree with WG that there has to be some meaningful trade that improves this team.There must be someone with a few too many apples when we have too many oranges.

    I’m not sure if there’s any team out there that has too many big strong players that can skate and post large positive CORSIs… and are looking for more slightly small skill players.

    If you discard the latter, maybe LA qualifies.

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    I had a similar look at the D pairings last night here:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/01/lightning-at-oilers-g45-13-14.html/comment-page-2#comment-283749

    I’m surprised to see Hunt still with the team. But at this point, it doesn’t really matter, might as well try him out, I guess. I’d prefer Fedun until Larsen and Potter are available.

    85-2 had a great night. In the 3 spot, 2 cleans up.

  64. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Thing is, JBo was not considered a whale at the time. He was quite tainted from his tenure in Calgary and had dropped a couple pegs in stature amongst elite defensemen. Perception and timing is everything. Who has that stink on them today that might make a great target? In fact, it gets so crazy that some bloggers were suggesting early this season that they wouldn’t take Giroux if offered for some Edmonton players….really?

  65. Woodguy says:

    To take goaltending out of the equation, I’m a firm believer in looking at shot rates to determine how good a player is, or at the very least, what his impact is.

    Everyone says Tavares is a lock for the Canadian team.

    Let’s look at Hall vs Tavares in terms of what they give up compared to what they create over last two seasons (10/11 and 11/12)

    Hall CF/20 19.67
    Tavares CF/20 19.97

    Hall CA/20 18.63
    Tavares CA/60 18.98

    So close there’s nothing to give up between the two.

    One is a sure fire lock, the other isn’t.

  66. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Woodguy,

    I had a similar look at the D pairings last night here:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2014/01/lightning-at-oilers-g45-13-14.html/comment-page-2#comment-283749

    I’m surprised to see Hunt still with the team. But at this point, it doesn’t really matter, might as well try him out, I guess. I’d prefer Fedun until Larsen and Potter are available.

    85-2 had a great night. In the 3 spot, 2 cleans up.

    Really surprised how good Marincin looks already. Fine partner in Petry and Marinicin even bailed out Petry a couple times.

    Hunt was practicing on PP2 today.

    Weird.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Thing is, JBo was not considered a whale at the time. He was quite tainted from his tenure in Calgary and had dropped a couple pegs in stature amongst elite defensemen. Perception and timing is everything. Who has that stink on them today that might make a great target? In fact, it gets so crazy that some bloggers were suggesting early this season that they wouldn’t take Giroux if offered for some Edmonton players….really?

    Who said he was or is a “whale.”

    Elite players, impact players, very good players, etc. get moved for a variety of reasons (cap, undervalued, rebuild, personality issues, bad management, poor performance, etc.).

    The problem is less why a player is moved, then if they are available. That is, really good players don’t move that often, unless you fork over a king’s ransom.

    As you say, timing is a lot of this. MacT basically has to luck into a situation where a player he wants is available. Otherwise, he’s stuck convincing a team to let go of a key piece, which is near impossible without big noise.

  68. gcw_rocks says:

    I don’t get the don’t make trades now sentiment. All you need is a market. It’s brutal when you here GMs say “I didn’t know that guy was on the market” like we heard after the Smid trade.

    A least now with Gagner Friedman has made everyone aware Gagner could be available. If there are two of three GMs out there who think Gagner could help their teams, you have the possibility to bid up Gagner’s value. Not infinitely, of course, but to get good value.

    let’s hope MacT opens the door to all bidders, rather than just those in cities where Gagner wants to play.

  69. Woodguy says:

    Sobatka makes the Czech team too.

    Man I like that guy.

  70. gcw_rocks says:

    delooper,

    I think you have to trade Gagner for a defender. You need to find a team (or two) with a need on the wing, or maybe one that is paper thin at centre, but has some defensive depth. Then you make your trade. This, of course, assumes we aren’t trading for magic beans again.

  71. hoser313 says:

    LMHF#1: Scuderi’s totals are interesting – he had 23 in 75 at age 22 in the AHL. So he was older than Klefbom but definitely wound up with better numbers than Oscar is tracking for this season. In the NCAA he had two strong point producing seasons and two not so much. It is true the lack of goals is certainly there.

    That’s true. Don’t get me wrong, though. I’m not suggesting Klefbom is ready yet by any means. It’s worth noting for people that Scuderi played 4 years in college and then the better part of 4 years in the AHL before he became an NHL regular.

  72. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Totally agree. Timing is key. As much as we can feel our backs are against the wall and if we trade we will get poor returns (and we are somehow unique in that regard), I think this perception is the same for every team and every GM. Being patient to let the right deal emerge is critical. Value for value and what constitutes value will be different for each side.

    Frankly, these potential transactions are the only interesting aspects of this remaining season for me and I dearly wish that wasn’t the case

  73. hoser313 says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Thing is, JBo was not considered a whale at the time. He was quite tainted from his tenure in Calgary and had dropped a couple pegs in stature amongst elite defensemen. Perception and timing is everything.

    And contracts. In Calgary, they soured on JBo because they expected him to score more points with such a big contract (great logic, I know, but really the same thing happened here with Horcoff). Thing is, if they’d scouted him properly, they would have realized he’s not a big shot guy like a Subban or a Weber.

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:
  75. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Eakins presser:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=530562&catid=4

    looks like Marincin could be sticking around:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=699264&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Marincin is currently the 2nd best LHD on the roster and might be close to being the best one.

    More of indictment of the current blue than a pumping of Marincin, but there it is.

  76. delooper says:

    gcw_rocks:

    I think you have to trade Gagner for a defender.You need to find a team (or two) with a need on the wing, or maybe one that is paper thin at centre, but has some defensive depth.Then you make your trade.This, of course, assumes we aren’t trading for magic beans again.

    This would be a stop-gap until Joe Thornton and Paul Statsny sign with the Oilers in the summer? :)

  77. bookje says:

    Woodguy:

    Better D and Hall is worlds better on the defensive stats imo.

    Better D and Hall is an Olympian.

    If you think that angers you and I, imagine what it does for Taylor Hall. This is why the team needs to address things now.

  78. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I firmly believe that forwards mostly drive Corsi For and that defence are the main driver in Corsi against.

    Better D and Hall is worlds better on the defensive stats imo.

    Nice summary there, WG.

    Better D and Hall is worlds better on the defensive stats, yes.

    Better D and the Oilers challenge for a playoff spot.

    Give the Nuge another year and Hall is the #1 winger on that list (note that Hall is the 2nd best LW, the third best winger period, and the only winger who does not also have the company of his centreman on the Top 10 list).

  79. Woodguy says:

    Wait!!

    Marincin making it to the NHL can’t happen!!

    He’s from the 2010 draft class and everyone says its awful and Stu is terrible.

    There must be a mistake.

  80. G Money says:

    gcw_rocks:
    I think you have to trade Gagner for a defender.You need to find a team (or two) with a need on the wing, or maybe one that is paper thin at centre, but has some defensive depth.Then you make your trade.This, of course, assumes we aren’t trading for magic beans again.

    I usually stay away from prospecting trades and assuming UFA signings, since in “doing” vs “saying”, the former is infinitely harder and more complicated than the latter. Nonetheless, the following have all been bandied about and seem to me to have an air of reasonable possibility to them, so I wonder if MacT is going for the Bold:

    - Weber for Eberle, Marincin, and #1 pick
    - Trade Hemsky at deadline for a pick
    - Trade Gagner + Hemsky pick to TO at deadline for Gardiner
    - Re-sign Hemsky in the off season to a bargain deal
    - Sign Grabo to replace Gagner
    - Sign Girardi
    - Re-sign Arco, bring Harti back from purgatory

    Q: Does a forward lineup of Hall-RNH-Yak, Perron-Grabo-Hemsky, Smyth-Gordon-[big defensively aware FA RW], Harti-Arco-Pitlick/Gazdic backstopped by Weber-Girardi, Petry-Ference, Gardiner-Belov-Jultz make the playoffs?

    A: Depends on the goaltender.

  81. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    This is a good read http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/29/4324054/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-1

    Eventually Steve’s ideas morph into dCorsi (delta corsi), a metric I have a couple problems with.

    However, his ground work shows that Dmen’s Corsi For do not really have repeat-ability to be looked at and used with confidence, but their Corsi Against does.

    If you read all the links its really interesting stuff.

    Basically it distilled the idea of Forwards drive Corsi For by a large margin and Dmen drive Corsi Against significantly enough to use it as a measuring stick.

    That’s one of the reason’s you’ll see me say time to time that Corsi isn’t a great tool to evaluate Dmen as the Corsi For is mostly out of their control.

    Certainly Dmen who make a good first pass can help Corsi For, but if your first pass is to Hall or your first pass is to Jones can be a huge determinate in whether or not that pass results in a Corsi For event.

  82. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: Marincin is currently the 2nd best LHD on the roster and might be close to being the best one.

    More of indictment of the current blue than a pumping of Marincin, but there it is.

    No kidding. Even with Smid it is a motley bunch.

    Ehrhoff would solve a lot of problems

    Ehrhoff
    Ference
    Belov
    Marincin
    Klefbom

  83. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: No kidding. Even with Smid it is a motley bunch.

    Ehrhoff would solve a lot of problems

    Ehrhoff
    Ference
    Belov
    Marincin
    Klefbom

    I have Marincin over Belov.

    I’m not sure that Belov can skate at a NHL level

    I think Ehrhoff does this team a world of good.

    Erhoff-Petry
    Ference-J.Shultz
    Marincin-?

    I’d prefer Gilbert be signed and it looks like:

    Ehrhoff-Petry
    Ference-Gilbert
    Marincin-J.Shultz

  84. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy,

    Better, but that D still has as much edge as a wet kleenex. As much as I hate the guy, a Kevin Bieksa-type would help these six out. Ference tries to be mean but is no bigger than a minute and seems to be getting beat wide more and more.

  85. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: I have Marincin over Belov.

    I’m not sure that Belov can skate at a NHL level

    I think Ehrhoff does this team a world of good.

    Erhoff-Petry
    Ference-J.Shultz
    Marincin-?

    I’d prefer Gilbert be signed and it looks like:

    Ehrhoff-Petry
    Ference-Gilbert
    Marincin-J.Shultz

    I understand the appeal… and maybe I’m overly skeptical (on timing not on the player), but I don’t have Marincin that high yet. It’s only been 7 NHL games. It looks good, but lets wait until he’s aired out a bit more.

    Now, Belov isn’t a big hurdle to jump I’ll grant you (i.e., you aren’t making that big a leap). But, I looked at his wowy #s the other day and I thought they weren’t that bad:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/12/oilers-at-coyotes-g42-13-14.html/comment-page-1#comment-282045

    I also think he may have “big man’s perception disease” where he always looks slow

  86. Woodguy says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Woodguy,

    Better, but that D still has as much edge as a wet kleenex.As much as I hate the guy, a Kevin Bieksa-type would help these six out.Ference tries to be mean but is no bigger than a minute and seems to be getting beat wide more and more.

    My criteria is a Dman who can stop the cycle, get possession and make the first pass.

    Terms like edge, grit, etc. don’t really quantify anything other than hitting, so I like to talk in more specifics.

    I like players who hit, but I like the hitting to have a purpose.

    Hitting a player to take the puck off of him, grabbing the puck and making a good first pass is awesome.

    Hitting a player and not having it contribute to a change in possession can be fun to watch (I like hits), but as a hockey play it contributes little.

    I’d love to see a Kronwall type on the Oilers. Big, mean, but also hits with a purpose and can make the first pass.

    Same applies to forwards in the neutral zone.

    Good two way players will disrupt the opposition in the neutral zone to get the puck back.

    Getting your body in the way of the guy with the puck is a very good way of contributing to it.

    Doesn’t have to be a thundering hit, just has to separate man from puck, then have the ability to do something with the puck once you’ve separated the man from the puck.

  87. srisribillyg says:

    knighttown,

    Hey, you answered my question before I even asked it! That’s a pretty neat trick. Guess I should read the thread more carefully next time before diving in…

    Would you mind telling me where you found that GA/60 stat? Or am I just blind and not able to see it at Extra Skater!

    Thanks in advance.

  88. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I understand the appeal… and maybe I’m overly skeptical (on timing not on the player), but I don’t have Marincin that high yet. It’s only been 7 NHL games. It looks good, but lets wait until he’s aired out a bit more.

    Now, Belov isn’t a big hurdle to jump I’ll grant you (i.e., you aren’t making that big a leap). But, I looked at his wowy #s the other day and I thought they weren’t that bad:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/12/oilers-at-coyotes-g42-13-14.html/comment-page-1#comment-282045

    I also think he may have “big man’s perception disease” where he always looks slow

    I tend to like new things, so you could be right.

    That said, Belov is almost as new to the NHL as Marincin is, and Marincin has the advantage of 76 AHL games to get acclimated to the North American game.

    Its not just the play in overtime against PHX that sticks out.

    He seems to be late to the puck and the play often.

  89. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I’d prefer Gilbert be signed and it looks like:

    Ehrhoff-Petry
    Ference-Gilbert
    Marincin-J.Shultz

    If that dCorsi work you pointed me at (interesting stuff BTW – thanks) has some validity, Gilbert and Ehroff are both doing outstanding work this year. Add in Niskanen and Hainsey (both of them top 10 by the same measure and underrated FAs this summer), and arguably you’d push Petry/Ference/Jultz to 5/6/7, and you’d have a Top 5 D overnight.

  90. Woodguy says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Woodguy,

    Better, but that D still has as much edge as a wet kleenex.As much as I hate the guy, a Kevin Bieksa-type would help these six out.Ference tries to be mean but is no bigger than a minute and seems to be getting beat wide more and more.

    Here’s the Cup winning D from last year:

    Duncan Keith
    Johnny Oduya
    Niklas Hjalmarsson
    Brent Seabrook
    Michal Rozsival
    Nick Leddy

    Not and edgy player there imo.

    Some pretty good ones though.

    Seabrook can be a handful, but he’s not in Kronwall territory.

  91. Woodguy says:

    G Money: If that dCorsi work you pointed me at (interesting stuff BTW – thanks), Gilbert and Ehroff are both doing outstanding work this year.Add in Niskanen and Hainsey (both of them top 10 by the same measure), and arguably you’d push Petry/Ference/Jultz to 5/6/7, and you’d have a Top 5 D overnight.

    I think that Steve Burtch’s dCorsi overvalues 3rd pairing guys, but it is an interesting metric for sure.

    Talked to some CAR bloggers and Hainsey was *always* going to CAR.

    They weren’t able to sign him until Pitkainen went on LTIR.

    Maybe the Oilers could have had a chance at him, not sure though.

    I think the Oilers really need Gilbert to round out the RHD and push J.Shultz into the 3RHD 1PP role.

    PHX had Yandle in that role for a long time and it worked. He’s playing much tougher comp this year than he ever had, but he’s ready for it now.

    J.Shultz is getting killed. He’s in over his head and that’s not fair to him and his development, nor is it fair to the team.

    MacT needs to address that.

  92. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: A team off-loading players for picks doesn’t care if the trading partner is a contender or not (usually it is because contenders are stocking up for cup runs, but that is besides the point). They care about getting the best package in return, which I agree is future oriented (ie. picks and/or prospects).
    EDM can deal in that situation.
    I never said anything about dealing players between two poor teams. Though it is something that happens and at the deadline no less:
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/02/27/oilers-trade-tom-gilbert-for-nick-schultz-swap-offence-for-pure-defence/

    Actually that’s not besides the point, that’s exactly what makes such trades at that time typical, and the sort of trade you want atypical. Or perhaps you have examples of poor teams like the OIlers acquiring impact players at the trade deadline every year?

  93. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    srisribillyg:
    knighttown,

    Hey, you answered my question before I even asked it! That’s a pretty neat trick. Guess I should read the thread more carefully next time before diving in…

    Would you mind telling me where you found that GA/60 stat? Or am I just blind and not able to see it at Extra Skater!

    Thanks in advance.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=25&s=24&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28

    I don’t think ES has a /60 option, behind the net works fine in this case.

    We still lack for a comprehensive, all in one site for this stuff. you gotta hop around.

  94. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Actually that’s not besides the point, that’s exactly what makes such trades at that time typical, and the sort of trade you want atypical.Or perhaps you have examples of poor teams like the OIlers acquiring impact players at the trade deadline every year?

    What’s the subject of this sentence. It reads like a non sequitur.

    ——–
    at any rate, let’s start again. which of these statements do you have a quarrel with and why:

    1. the best time to trade for NHL players is at the deadline and/or in the Summer

    2. at the deadline, in most cases, stumbling teams trade NHL players for picks and prospects to teams challenging for the cup. Also, there are “addition by substraction” trades by good teams, and just random hockey trades. But mostly the first kind.

    3. poor teams tend to prefer futures for their NHL players at the deadline

    4. poor teams don’t care if their trading partner is a playoff bound team or not, only who provides the best package (typically of futures)

    5. it happens to be the case, however, that playoff teams are typically in the market for NHL players at the deadline and therefore comprise the buyers in typical cases.

    6. if a crappy team were in the market to buy NHL players at the deadline, offloading teams would be happy to deal with them (barring some other factor, such as in-division), assuming they get the best package they can

    so, what’s the problem here?

    You seem to be arguing that at the deadline a crappy team, let’s say BUF, wouldn’t trade an NHL player, let’s say Ehrhoff, to another crappy team, let’s say EDM, because….???

    It sure sounds like this is what you are saying, but I can’t figure out why.

  95. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I think that Steve Burtch’s dCorsi overvalues 3rd pairing guys, but it is an interesting metric for sure.

    Yeah, there were comments made to that effect on the blog – that the statistic basically shows you how well you are doing relative to your own pairing, so an outstanding 5D would have a high dCorsi almost as much as an outstanding 1D.

    I suspect if you were trying to make a decision about whether to sign/trade for a player, the best use might be to filter via TOI to determine the pairing level, then use dCorsi to assess how well that player is doing in that role, and finally use PDO to try to isolate luck. All of which lets you find the bargains e.g. a top pairing guy who is doing mediocre work via dCorsi but also has a low PDO means you might be able to sign a guy who would be a solid second pairing defender at a bargain price.

    Woodguy: J.Shultz is getting killed. He’s in over his head and that’s not fair to him and his development, nor is it fair to the team.

    Agreed. He is of course being pilloried by Oilers fans, but we’ve got a guy who’s just closed out his first season – 85 games, and on his second NHL coach already – playing first pairing minutes every night. Of course he’s being shelled FFS.

    There’s lots of blame to be pointed at players on this team, and Jultz deserves some of it for his often seemingly lackadaisical (lollygagger!!) attitude in the d zone, but much of the criticism is just way over the top.

  96. Caramel Obvious says:

    You can’t just use shots against for defensemen, regardless of what the correlations tell you. If you do you will systematically underate offensive defensemen.

    That said, the lesson is that quality of teammates matters. A lot. Much more than quality of competition, which barely matters at all.

  97. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/01/05/short-shifts/

    I hadn’t seen this posted elsewhere-apologies if it has been posted

    Matty’s latest late last night-he mentions Despres from Pittsburgh as a player of interest

  98. VanOil says:

    As Marincin is now obviously our 2nd pair defense man of the future (with Petry) time for new fantasy trades. Based on rumor and guess work:

    Gagner and Dubnyk to NYI for Brock Nelson and Andrew MacDonald ~ Gags gets to play with his buddy Taveres. EDM gets a big player/Corsi monster who if he learns to take a draw in the NHL will be a #2C. They also swap/test drive UFAs they are might like to sign.

    Trade the 1st round pick for Ehrhoff. (How could Buf resist having two top 3 picks and no Org need for Ekblad)

    N Shultz goes away for a 2nd round pick and the defense looks better.

    Klefbom makes the NHL full time in 2 years when he is better than Ference. (age 22)

    Nurse makes the NHL full time in 3 years when he is better than Ehrhoff or MacDonald (age 22)

    Next year/End of this year

    Ehrhoff-MacDonald
    Marincin-Petry
    Ference-J Schultz
    Belov-Fedun

  99. commonfan14 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: You seem to be arguing that at the deadline a crappy team, let’s say BUF, wouldn’t trade an NHL player, let’s say Ehrhoff, to another crappy team, let’s say EDM, because….???

    The typical thing that would scuttle that kind of deal would be NTCs and the player involved, not the trading team.

  100. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    commonfan14: The typical thing that would scuttle that kind of deal would be NTCs and the player involved, not the trading team.

    That would fall under this caveat:

    “(barring some other factor, such as in-division)”

    Except that this (and other) particular problem doesn’t affect the deadline uniquely.

  101. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=25&s=24&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28

    I don’t think ES has a /60 option, behind the net works fine in this case.

    We still lack for a comprehensive, all in one site for this stuff. you gotta hop around.

    stats.hockeyanalysis has it all too, except its GA/20

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5&pos=skaters&minutes=100&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A20&sortdir=ASC

  102. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    I suspect if you were trying to make a decision about whether to sign/trade for a player, the best use might be to filter via TOI to determine the pairing level, then use dCorsi to assess how well that player is doing in that role, and finally use PDO to try to isolate luck. All of which lets you find the bargains e.g. a top pairing guy who is doing mediocre work via dCorsi but also has a low PDO means you might be able to sign a guy who would be a solid second pairing defender at a bargain price.

    I agree with that.

    Finding bargain and under-utilized players is crucial in the cap world.

    Agreed. He is of course being pilloried by Oilers fans, but we’ve got a guy who’s just closed out his first season – 85 games, and on his second NHL coach already – playing first pairing minutes every night. Of course he’s being shelled FFS.
    There’s lots of blame to be pointed at players on this team, and Jultz deserves some of it for his often seemingly lackadaisical (lollygagger!!) attitude in the d zone, but much of the criticism is just way over the top.

    100%.

    The media and fans pile on the player when:

    1) Often (especially on the Oilers) he’s being used above his actual NHL level

    2) So you want to bitch out the coach for putting him over his head, but you look at the roster and HE IS the best option for the coach at that position, any you cannot criticize a coach for deploying the roster with his best options.

    3) So you have to go to management for failing to provide the coach with a balanced roster.

    The Oiler’s roster has been unbalanced since 2007 and that’s on the management.

    But Kevin Lowe knows winning, in case there’s a question.

  103. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    You can’t just use shots against for defensemen, regardless of what the correlations tell you.If you do you will systematically underate offensive defensemen.

    That said, the lesson is that quality of teammates matters.A lot.Much more than quality of competition, which barely matters at all.

    No one is saying to use it exclusively.

    In the context of corsi though, its been shown to be more useful than an overall CF%

    Like everything else, there needs to be balance in which metrics you use to show “X” point about a player.

  104. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    3) So you have to go to management for failing to provide the coach with a balanced roster.

    The Oiler’s roster has been unbalanced since 2007 and that’s on the management.

    But Kevin Lowe knows winning, in case there’s a question.

    So, does that make Kevin Lowe the NHL’s answer to Charlie Sheen?

    Mmmm Mmmm… gotta love that lowe hanging fruit…

  105. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/01/05/short-shifts/

    I hadn’t seen this posted elsewhere-apologies if it has been posted

    Matty’s latest late last night-he mentions Despres from Pittsburgh as a player of interest

    Depres is often a HS and only has 17 gp this year.

    Been beaten out my Matta, who is only 19.

    Engelland has beat him out too and he’s more of a FIstric type.

    Oilers need someone with more of a NHL track record.

    Pass unless he really comes cheap.

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