OILERS AT STARS, G49 13-14

The Edmonton Oilers are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games, and have scored 31 goals in those 10 games. Music! They’ve allowed 34. Crap! Dubnyk’s save percentage is .902, Bryzgalov’s is .893 and they could both be here past the deadline unless scouts see something resembling quality. Bryzgalov gets the start tonight.

LAST 10 GAMES, BOXCARS

jan14boxcars

I don’t know that anyone has the answer about Taylor Hall this season. His Corsi for % is very low based on his own established level of ability, and yet the points keep coming! If he played a full season and posted the same totals over those games as he has in the last 10, Hall would pass 100 points. That’s exceptional production in the modern era. The only people who can explain this kind of thing are Leafs management people, and I don’t believe what they’re saying.

The other players are posting good numbers too, Yakupov is settling down and Nuge is on the way to a fine season. I wonder if the Oilers are seriously considering bringing back both Hemsky and Smyth—they are worthy based on this season—and I would think the club signs 83 if the deadline offers are poor. That’s an actual NHL player we’re talking about here.

HALL’S A FREAK (EV PTS/60)

scoring ratesHere we see Hall towering over his teammates at the plate. I can’t believe the Oilers good fortune, and sincerely hope they get to the postseason and make some memories 2015. That #4 is all dressed up with no place to go. The Nuge number is heading in  a good direction and 89 is recovering too. Yakupov is climbing the charts and it seems to me Justin Schultz has been more active offensively of late, as his game returns from the wobble he’s been in this season.

JUSTIN SCHULTZ PLAYER CARD

schultz extra skater

 

Speaking of Schultz the younger, his Extra Skater player card has some interesting things. His Corsi for % is identical to last season, but his shots on goal are WAY down and the young man’s shooting percentage is off a little too. His TOI has increased, and I think the Oilers could get an enormous boost if his game comes around in the second half. By eye he’s been less chaotic and that’s a good sign. In an ideal world, he would get 3rd pairing EV and 1st power play minutes, but that’s extremely unlikely. A settled Schultz playing second pairing minutes effectively is a monster piece in the blue puzzle for the Oilers.

TRADING PLAYERS: SAM GAGNER

gagner extra skater

Gagner’s Corsi for % is up from last season, but his shooting percentage has been cut in half and his numbers are off the pace because asshole Kassian. I honestly don’t know how you trade the guy to a contender, which means he could end up with the Panthers or the Islanders or the Leafs. If they could find a way to  get Hamonic or Maata? Would that be enough? Surely it would. One suspects other teams are trying to get him on the cheap, knowing the  no-trade kicks in soon and of course they don’t really know what they’re getting in Gagner this season.

I have a hard time pegging his value, and am beginning to think the best plan might be to bring Sam back next season. It isn’t ideal, but people will not be happy with a horrible return for the young man and I suspect the offers are 30 cents on the dollar.

THE 2010 DRAFT

This blog has been obsessed with the 2010 draft for a long time, and when we talk about prospects it’s important to factor in what injuries can do to them. The 2010 Oilers draft has a list of injuries one mile long to names like Pitlick, Hamilton and Czerwonka, along with the genuine tragedy of Kristians Pelss and the real life challenges of Brandon Davidson.

Curtis Hamilton had a superb run around the new year, scoring goals like a madman and causing MacT to mention him in the Staples interview. Now word comes he’s out as much as 6 weeks with another knee injury, and that might just do it. You never want to write off a prospect, and Hamilton could be important because his resume reads like a 1970 Peterborough Pete (defensive acumen) but he has to stay healthy. A damn shame.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

biel

Lots to discuss today, and it’ll revolve around the game in Dallas. 10 this morning, TSN 1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Alan Hull, Copper and Blue. Which way Gagner, Hemsky at the deadline, powerplay.
  • Michael Parkatti, Boys on the Bus. 2014 draft, Marincin’s place on the 2014-15 blue, solving a position in one summer.
  • Mike Heika, Dallas Morning News. We’ll check on our man Horcoff, and find out about the Nill fix at center.
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report, New England Hockey Journal and the New York Hockey Journal. American kids in the draft and the increased importance of the USHL in scouting.

10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. This is going to be a fun morning! Make a damn trade, Oilers!

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261 Responses to "OILERS AT STARS, G49 13-14"

« Older Comments
  1. Lowetide says:

    Ben:
    So what on earth does J. Schultz’s next contract look like?

    A rectangle?

  2. Ben says:

    O’MARK assist Murray un-wrecked him.

  3. OilLeak says:

    RexLibris:
    Ben,

    Probably a bridge, two year deal. Between $3 and $4 million, because the Oilers like his poise.

    I hope not, 3-4 million for a dman that can’t beat 3rd pairing mins yet is far too much.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Halfway through this game, ES has it Corsi 36-31 Edmonton.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    “Losing is a mirage. We’re going for draft position now.” K.Lowe

  6. OilLeak says:

    Lowetide,

    Score effects, score close doesn’t paint a very rosy picture.

  7. G Money says:

    At the start of the season, the Oilers would play a strong game, then tank for five.

    Then they got to the point where a strong game would be followed by just one weak game.

    Then it was one weak period per game.

    Now it appears to be down to 10 weak seconds to start each period.

    PROGRESS!

    Somehow they still manage to give up two goals though … sigh.

  8. Lowetide says:

    I would take Byfgluien on the Oilers.

  9. VanOil says:

    It seems to me Marincin spending 2 weeks with Chara will be very different than him spending 2 weeks with the Keystone cops he is playing with right now. Can Katz send Germat to the Olympics a an observer who maybe skates with the Slovack team in practices? Out sourcing our defensive training seems to be wise at this point.

  10. book¡je says:

    RexLibris:
    book¡je,

    Not an option.

    2600 I have. Berzerk, Asteroids, Pac Man, Ms. Pac Man, Donkey Kong, Combat, Missile Command.

    On the bright side, Flames are tied with Nashville, Buffalo is leading in the 3rd and the Panthers won.

    You can install emulators on your PC that will allow you to play every Atari, intellevision, coke obis ion NES, and any pre ~1995 stand up game.

  11. RexLibris says:

    Darn it.

    Buffalo was *this* close to a win.

  12. Derek says:

    Goneyay++ for Buff

  13. RexLibris says:

    book¡je: You can install emulators on your PC that will allow you to play every Atari, intellevision, coke obis ion NES, and any pre ~1995 stand up game.

    Oh I know. But there’s really nothing like the sound of one of those 1981 game cartridges plunking into the console to bring back the memories.

    Now, to figure out how to hook it up to the projector at work…

  14. Lowetide says:

    47-42 after 2 Corsi close and Marincin is 50%! He’s a demon!

  15. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: A rectangle?

    WIN!

    Even LT is turning goofy from the losses.

    Might I suggest that should the Oilers get the 1st overall pick this year they appease the fans by having an online vote for whom to select 1st overall.

  16. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    I’d want to check his pairings for the evening after reading Willis’ article on Petry, but either way, that is some fine defense-ing from the young man.

    Love this kid.

  17. stevezie says:

    G Money: I’m one of the conspiracy pushers.The “thousands of people staying perfectly silent for decades” is the biggest weakness of every conspiracy.I’ve explained a few times how this reffing bias could *easily* be created and managed and yet not have the conspiracy go beyond Bettman and his lieutenant.

    I missed the explanation. Step one has to be proving the thing that you say is happening actually is happening, right? Do Canadian teams draw less than their fair share of penalties?

  18. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    47-42 after 2 Corsi close and Marincin is 50%! He’s a demon!

    The score hasn’t been close since sometime in the first period. You are looking at total Corsi, with score effects, not Corsi close.

    Corsi close is 44%, Fenwick close 35%

  19. book¡je says:

    Last season Canadian team were 3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th, 14th, 21st, and 25th in Power Play opportunities.

    Wow, that is very suspicious!

  20. RexLibris says:

    Well, if the Oilers are going to lose I hope they at least outscore the Flames.

  21. Gerta Rauss says:

    art vandelay,

    A little less anger in your posts this evening Art.

    Now that’s progress.

  22. Logan91 says:

    RexLibris:
    Darn it.

    Buffalo was *this* close to a win.

    Haha almost got the 2 points to get further ahead in the standings!
    That was a good game though

  23. Pouzar says:

    Who did Marincin have pinned to the glass there late in the 2nd for what seemed like 5 min?
    Very impressive!

  24. G Money says:

    stevezie: I missed the explanation. Step one has to be proving the thing that you say is happening actually is happening, right? Do Canadian teams draw less than their fair share of penalties?

    I have it on my list of data analysis projects, but it is still quite far down an ever expanding list.

    It’s also not quite so simple in that the simple number of penalties doesn’t tell you much – it’s the blatant uncalled ones at critical times in the game that are so noticeable. The penalties in this one are 3-2 Oilers but the real question is – if you were to call this one down the middle, what *should* the penalty count be?

    That’s the basic equation. And as I’ve mentioned before, I initially assumed that my perceived bias was just my Oiler fan asserting himself. Then I watched Flames games here in Cowtown (cheering for them to lose), and then games in Denver and San Jose (not caring much who won), and that’s where the difference became so distinctly noticeable. Watching the refereeing of say Dal-Chi and Dal-Edm or Dal-Cgy is absolutely night and day.

    So when the mood strikes me (and vast quantities of time open up for me, maybe when my young uns go to college), I will assess the data as you say. Til then, I continue to rely on watching the games and taking mental notes, and taking great glee in how consistently others on these threads will consistently raise questions about strangely biased reffing – but almost exclusively against US teams.

    As to the how – like every other team in hockey, the referees will get a “game chat” before every game. It would be dead simple to ensure that phrases like “this team has been observed to be embellishing lately, make sure you don’t call penalties unless you’re sure” and “this team has had liberties taken on them lately, and we’re concerned about injury issues. Make sure you watch closely to protect the situation.”

    Boom. Done. Bias ingrained, game set and match – and the only person needing to be involved is the guy who creates the pre-game assessments. No conspiracy beyond him and Buttman needed. If I wanted to achieve a bias to help ensure an edge for the house, that’s how I would do it. In fact, that’s exactly how you bias situations in the business world too. Meanwhile, the referees would swear up and down that they’re calling the game fairly and squarely and by the book. Just that the book was rewritten on the way in…

  25. Henry says:

    There is a demon inhabiting jersey 64 tonight.

  26. book¡je says:

    G Money,

    What you describe sounds like a biased observer seeing what he wants to see.

  27. VanOil says:

    If the Oilers were ever less horrible how would the rest of the league break there slumps?

  28. Henry says:

    Where is Hemsky? Was he hurt enough to shut him down?

    He was playing a fantastic game.

  29. Pretendergast says:

    Need someone driving the net, we make wonderful plays just pay bruce banner a cpl bucks to show a kid how to smash the puck in front of the net. Take some punishment when it matters boys and we win this game.

  30. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    A travesty that Hall isn’t on that Oly team. There Is not a better Canadian left winger In the game. He’s beginning to put a fine point on that.

  31. Lowetide says:

    If the Oilers could score one they could score three, but they gave up too many because filthy Russian.

  32. icecastles says:

    Just got in. How much are we winning by?

  33. Pouzar says:

    Marincin says “kiss my Garbutt”.

  34. Pretendergast says:

    Kari has the routine in, i would take a goalie like him in a heartbeat. I wish craig button was their gm, on th2nite last night he said kari’s the problem with dallas not making the playoffs, unbelievable.

  35. Pouzar says:

    -Marincin really knows how to use his body effectively. Seen on numerous occasions tonight. There is a player here.

    -Hall is in beast mode tonight.

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide:
    If the Oilers could score one they could score three, but they gave up too many because filthy Russian.

    Yes, agreed.

    Score effects or not, they’ve had some 5 bell chances in the back half of the game, just couldn’t bury that 3rd goal.

  37. OilBuzz says:

    This team is fucking shit.

  38. G Money says:

    book¡je:
    What you describe sounds like a biased observer seeing what he wants to see.

    Yes, that was my assumption when I first noticed the situation. I assumed it was my Oiler bias.

    What tweaked my interest was watching a US-US game (Col-LAK at Pepsi Centre) where I cared little about who won or lost, and seeing how dramatically different the refereeing was shortly after watching an Oilers-LAK game. This is when all three teams sucked, so it wasn’t a team quality issue. It was like watching a different league.

    But that too is consistent with an Oiler bias – notice it in an Oiler game, but not in games I don’t care about.

    But out of curiousity, I paid attention to subsequent games of Flames-Oilers (where the refereeing was bad but not biased, more like the Col-LAK game), and Flames-US somebody (don’t remember, don’t care, but wanted the Flames to lose so my bias would be against them) and it wasn’t until I saw a repeat of the Oiler bias in the Flames game that I suspected something was up.

    Interest aroused, I did a little data collection exercise the next few games I watched. (I think I had to wait til the next season actually, it was very close to the end of that one as I recall).

    I deliberately watched Flames and Canucks games, two teams I absolutely despise, so my bias would not be in favour of the Canadian team. Tracked the penalties as called and classified them as ticky-tacky or deserved. The ticky-tacky ones cancel out, as do the deserved ones. Then I also tracked the *uncalled* penalties on each side, blatant only. Add it all up and you *should* get a number reasonably close to zero.

    You will not be surprised to discover that the number was usually sensibly close to zero for US-US and Cda-Cda, but *never* zero for US-Cda, and never in favour of the Canadian team. (I used to smirk when I heard Flames fans bitching about the refereeing from the Flames-TBay SCF … but now I have to admit there’s probably something there. And despite my contempt for Nucks whiners bitching about the Nucks-Beantown SCF, I don’t make fun of them either).

    Admittedly, this was a small sample (I think I watched two games in each category in each of two seasons), as it’s a very labour intensive process that requires paying rather intense attention to games you don’t care about, but nonetheless, the results showed quite a remarkable delta.

    Biased? Maybe … but I did my best to test it with as close to real data as I could get.

    You are welcome to replicate my work and see for yourself if you get similar results.

    Meantime, I continue to watch and observe and not much has changed. The only exception to the Canada rule is the Leafs as far as I can tell.

    So … go ahead and call me biased … go ahead and call me a whacko conspiracy theorist … meantime, I will continue to chuckle each time I read a US game thread where someone ponders why the refereeing seems so biased and incompetent (contrasted with Canadian game threads, where it’s merely frustration at the incompetent)…

  39. ASkoreyko says:

    G Money,

    I am really not trying to be a jerk here, but that honestly sounds like some of the weakest data you could gather. Two games from each category over two seasons? How could anyone form any sort of trend off of that?

    Also I don’t really get how you reconcile this ‘gut’ feeling with bookies post below.

    book¡je:
    Last season Canadian team were 3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th, 14th, 21st, and 25th in Power Play opportunities.

    Wow, that is very suspicious!

    Describing a non-scientific process in a scientific matter does not lend credence to the hypothesis.

  40. D says:

    Man I was really looking forward to this game, but fell asleep this afternoon from an all-nighter earlier today. Did I miss anything interesting? Are the Oilers still in first place, or am I still dreaming?

  41. icecastles says:

    G Money,

    I’m sure I speak for many of us when I say I’d love to see the data you collected.

    ASkoreyko: Describing a non-scientific process in a scientific matter does not lend credence to the hypothesis.

    This.

  42. art vandelay says:

    A little less anger in your posts this evening Art.

    Now that’s progress.

    Gerta Rauss,

    Look at me! Making the people hap-pee!

  43. edoil1 says:

    RexLibris,

    They could have an advertised an “on line “vote for first overall,but then they would find a way to alter the vote by robo voting and still end up with the wrong guy.Is it just me,I am kind of feeling sorry for Bob Stauffer lately ,he keep’s trying to defend this mess all the while starting to look like the face on the side of the “koolaide jug”.

  44. WeirsBeard says:

    Lowetide:
    If the Oilers could score one they could score three, but they gave up too many because filthy Russian.

    Horcov’s curse!

  45. WeirsBeard says:

    Marincin seems to be able to play. Nurse is stomping the OHL. When does Klefbom get traded?

  46. delooper says:

    D:
    Man I was really looking forward to this game, but fell asleep this afternoon from an all-nighter earlier today.Did I miss anything interesting?Are the Oilers still in first place, or am I still dreaming?

    Yakupov, Hall, Hemsky and Marcinin had nice games. Hemsky left the game after getting a Gazdic shot off his ankle. Gagner had some nice moments and some not so nice moments. The Oilers had a decent number of chances but gave up too many opportunities.

  47. delooper says:

    WeirsBeard:
    Marincin seems to be able to play. Nurse is stomping the OHL. When does Klefbom get traded?

    It’s not clear all three will be NHL ready next year. Marcinin might be ready. Klefbom and Nurse could very well be tweeners next year.

  48. icecastles says:

    edoil1: I am kind of feeling sorry for Bob Stauffer lately ,he keep’s trying to defend this mess all the while starting to look like the face on the side of the “koolaide jug”.

    Does this pretty much sum up what it must feel like to be Stauffer after the games?

  49. Marcus Oilerius says:

    A very confusing night, gentlemen. On one hand, we arguably outplayed the Stars. On the other hand, this 5-2 loss leaves the Oilers now in sole position of worst in the league for goal differential at -46. The we’ve managed this feat in 49 games (as opposed to 45 for Buffalo and their -45, and Calgary’s -43 in 47 games.)

    Dire.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    A very confusing night, gentlemen.On one hand, we arguably outplayed the Stars.On the other hand, this 5-2 loss leaves the Oilers now in sole position of worst in the league for goal differential at -46.The we’ve managed this feat in 49 games (as opposed to 45 for Buffalo and their -45, and Calgary’s -43 in 47 games.)

    Dire.

    1. The goalie sucked
    2. How many of those goals are empty netters? answer 10 (most)
    3. There were some good things.

    I think they finish 29th, but the Oilers could get a lot of good from these last 30+ games.

  51. denny33 says:

    J Schultz at opposition blue line 8 seconds into the game and last man back to watch puck go in his own net……Pinching on the opening face off?

    Jeff Petry in front of his own net…..

    Is Marincin showing that well or is he a 60 watt bulb guy playing with 20 watt bulbs?

    Not meaning any disrespect, but god bless some guys in here that see so many positives.

    Find it surreal we are 8 points and falling behind Florida….

    Have tickets to the game in Winnipeg…..bet more money than I should have with my co-workers.

  52. D says:

    delooper: Yakupov, Hall, Hemsky and Marcinin had nice games.Hemsky left the game after getting a Gazdic shot off his ankle. Gagner had some nice moments and some not so nice moments. The Oilers had a decent number of chances but gave up too many opportunities.

    Thanks for this. I hope Hemsky is okay. He’s got the big show in a few weeks.

  53. hockeyguy10 says:

    WeirsBeard:
    Marincin seems to be able to play. Nurse is stomping the OHL. When does Klefbom get traded?

    And Dillon Simpson got a Hobey Baker nomination

  54. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Too bad Schultz made a bad pinch so early, he finished the game strong. Don’t think he will be a great player, he kind of reminds me of Brian Campell on Florida. Good skater but not great defensively. I thought Petry played really well. He makes some big mistakes sometimes but he is hands down our best defence man. Great game for Marincin again also!

    I was watching Gagner tonight closely and I noticed a few things. He is getting a lot of chances the last two games playing on that top line but he is really having a tough time finishing. I know he scored tonight but I notice he is having a hard time receiving hard passes from Nuge and Hall. In short he doesn’t belong on the top line.

  55. teddyturnbuckle says:

    One thing on the draft. If we draft Eckblad and round out our defence we will still have a huge hole at center. On the other hand if we draft Rienhart or Sam Bennet then we are in good shape at Centre and Nurse, Klefbom, Shultz and Marincin may still fill the defencemen void.

  56. G Money says:

    icecastles: I’m sure I speak for many of us when I say I’d love to see the data you collected.

    I will see if I can find it. I fear it is two laptops ago – three if you count the new Toshiba I bought on Boxing Day. But I have a bunch of old data CDs still kicking around, including some backups, so it is possible the spreadsheet still exists. Man, I would have loved for CrashPlan to have been around five years ago. (or maybe it did and I just didn’t know about it).

    As an aside, I have more “data” preserved from 25 years ago, like the first compiler I ever wrote which is printed out in a 300 page listing proudly preserved in an old IBM binder at my Mom’s house in Edmonton, than I do from 10 years ago when archive printing was uncool…

    ASkoreyko: I am really not trying to be a jerk here, but that honestly sounds like some of the weakest data you could gather. Two games from each category over two seasons?

    I take no criticism of my belief to heart. I understand my stance makes me sound like a crackpot.

    If you’ve read any of my posts over time, you probably know that I’m a math-stats-science guy, a number cruncher, and both a natural skeptic and a regular presser-of-the-bullshit-button. Which means in a perverse way, I quite enjoy being on the other side of the coin.

    That said, the first skeptic of my belief was myself. I “noticed” the effect for several years, but wrote it off as the rantings and ravings of any fan. We *all* feel the refs are biased against our team, even when we know it’s not true.

    But as I pointed out in my little biography, it was watching the games in the US and then confirming them with Flames and Nucks games that convinced me that there might be some reality to it. And then my inner skeptic demanded actual data.

    Two games US-US, two games Cda-Cda, two games US-Cda x 2 seasons = 12 games. Indeed, as I said, not a large sample size. But intensely difficult data to gather, took hours. Two of the games were live, which made it even tougher. And small sample or no, the results rather stark. Enough to convince me that what I’d observed was real.

    ASkoreyko: Describing a non-scientific process in a scientific matter does not lend credence to the hypothesis.

    Moreover, while the data set is small, in finest scientific tradition I described to you my methodology in sufficient detail for you to recreate it yourself, and invite you to collect your own data to prove or disprove my results. That is how real science works, yes? Start with tonight’s game. (Do one game and you’ll see why my sample size was small – make sure you have HD and a PVR).

    Lastly, as to my theory about how such a bias could be implemented – it’s just a theory. It came about because once I was convinced that what I was seeing was real, at least based on my small but painfully gathered data, I asked myself a simple question: if I wanted to implement a bias like this, without getting caught and without risk of a conspiracy leakage, how would I do it? That’s how I came up with my crackpot solution to my crackpot problem. It may or may not describe reality, but it is feasible.

    As I said – you don’t have to believe me. But I will continue to enjoy (and tear my hair out in frustration) as virtually every single thread in for every US team game leaves several posters unsullied by my mental meanderings mulling why there seem to be so many uncalled penalties against the good guys…

  57. gogliano says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    One thing on the draft.If we draft Eckblad and round out our defence we will still have a huge hole at center.On the other hand if we draft Rienhart or Sam Bennet then we are in good shape at Centre and Nurse, Klefbom, Shultz and Marincin may still fill the defencemen void.

    Doesn’t Bennett play left wing?

    I’m hoping for Draisatl or Reinhardt if the German Robbie Schremp is off the board.

  58. nycoil says:

    Just went over to the Cult of Hockey page and saw a post suggesting Markov and Girardi as targets. I swear, Mr. McCurdy, that when I made my post I hadn’t read it, and was just combing through the list of UFAs and picked those two. Apologies if appearances were bad.
    Anyhow, seems Markov and the Habs want to negotiate an extension.

  59. gcw_rocks says:

    So, I missed the game, but did I hear the annual Hemsky injury occurred last night?

  60. hunter1909 says:

    gcw_rocks:
    So, I missed the game, but did I hear the annual Hemsky injury occurred last night?

    Yes.

    Now. Do you want to laugh or cry?

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