OILERS AT STARS, G49 13-14

The Edmonton Oilers are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games, and have scored 31 goals in those 10 games. Music! They’ve allowed 34. Crap! Dubnyk’s save percentage is .902, Bryzgalov’s is .893 and they could both be here past the deadline unless scouts see something resembling quality. Bryzgalov gets the start tonight.

LAST 10 GAMES, BOXCARS

jan14boxcars

I don’t know that anyone has the answer about Taylor Hall this season. His Corsi for % is very low based on his own established level of ability, and yet the points keep coming! If he played a full season and posted the same totals over those games as he has in the last 10, Hall would pass 100 points. That’s exceptional production in the modern era. The only people who can explain this kind of thing are Leafs management people, and I don’t believe what they’re saying.

The other players are posting good numbers too, Yakupov is settling down and Nuge is on the way to a fine season. I wonder if the Oilers are seriously considering bringing back both Hemsky and Smyth—they are worthy based on this season—and I would think the club signs 83 if the deadline offers are poor. That’s an actual NHL player we’re talking about here.

HALL’S A FREAK (EV PTS/60)

scoring ratesHere we see Hall towering over his teammates at the plate. I can’t believe the Oilers good fortune, and sincerely hope they get to the postseason and make some memories 2015. That #4 is all dressed up with no place to go. The Nuge number is heading in  a good direction and 89 is recovering too. Yakupov is climbing the charts and it seems to me Justin Schultz has been more active offensively of late, as his game returns from the wobble he’s been in this season.

JUSTIN SCHULTZ PLAYER CARD

schultz extra skater

 

Speaking of Schultz the younger, his Extra Skater player card has some interesting things. His Corsi for % is identical to last season, but his shots on goal are WAY down and the young man’s shooting percentage is off a little too. His TOI has increased, and I think the Oilers could get an enormous boost if his game comes around in the second half. By eye he’s been less chaotic and that’s a good sign. In an ideal world, he would get 3rd pairing EV and 1st power play minutes, but that’s extremely unlikely. A settled Schultz playing second pairing minutes effectively is a monster piece in the blue puzzle for the Oilers.

TRADING PLAYERS: SAM GAGNER

gagner extra skater

Gagner’s Corsi for % is up from last season, but his shooting percentage has been cut in half and his numbers are off the pace because asshole Kassian. I honestly don’t know how you trade the guy to a contender, which means he could end up with the Panthers or the Islanders or the Leafs. If they could find a way to  get Hamonic or Maata? Would that be enough? Surely it would. One suspects other teams are trying to get him on the cheap, knowing the  no-trade kicks in soon and of course they don’t really know what they’re getting in Gagner this season.

I have a hard time pegging his value, and am beginning to think the best plan might be to bring Sam back next season. It isn’t ideal, but people will not be happy with a horrible return for the young man and I suspect the offers are 30 cents on the dollar.

THE 2010 DRAFT

This blog has been obsessed with the 2010 draft for a long time, and when we talk about prospects it’s important to factor in what injuries can do to them. The 2010 Oilers draft has a list of injuries one mile long to names like Pitlick, Hamilton and Czerwonka, along with the genuine tragedy of Kristians Pelss and the real life challenges of Brandon Davidson.

Curtis Hamilton had a superb run around the new year, scoring goals like a madman and causing MacT to mention him in the Staples interview. Now word comes he’s out as much as 6 weeks with another knee injury, and that might just do it. You never want to write off a prospect, and Hamilton could be important because his resume reads like a 1970 Peterborough Pete (defensive acumen) but he has to stay healthy. A damn shame.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

biel

Lots to discuss today, and it’ll revolve around the game in Dallas. 10 this morning, TSN 1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Alan Hull, Copper and Blue. Which way Gagner, Hemsky at the deadline, powerplay.
  • Michael Parkatti, Boys on the Bus. 2014 draft, Marincin’s place on the 2014-15 blue, solving a position in one summer.
  • Mike Heika, Dallas Morning News. We’ll check on our man Horcoff, and find out about the Nill fix at center.
  • Kirk Luedeke, Red Line Report, New England Hockey Journal and the New York Hockey Journal. American kids in the draft and the increased importance of the USHL in scouting.

10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. This is going to be a fun morning! Make a damn trade, Oilers!

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261 Responses to "OILERS AT STARS, G49 13-14"

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  1. pboy says:

    Wrong sport but same idea. You could substitute Oilers for Cowboys and the story would read the same. Luckily, I’m not only an Oiler’s fan but a Cowboys fan as well.

    http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/10283811/jerry-jones-blame-dallas-cowboys-nfc-title-game-drought-hits-18-years

    Here are some of the more pertinent passages:

    The sad part, if you’re a Cowboys fan, is that there’s zero tangible evidence that things are going to change anytime soon because the Cowboys have one of the most dysfunctional organizations in professional sports. Jones clearly thinks his way is the best way to run a franchise, although it’s clearly been unsuccessful for nearly 20 years.

    We’re talking about an organization with just four playoff appearances and four 10-win seasons since 1997. The Cowboys have had six head coaches in that time span — a figure exceeded only by K.C., Buffalo and Oakland — an indication the GM still believes any one of 500 coaches can lead his team.

    Look around the NFL at the league’s most consistent winners and you’ll see it’s all about the organization.

    The New York Giants. The Baltimore Ravens. The Pittsburgh Steelers. The New England Patriots. The Green Bay Packers. Sure, they have a bad season here or there, but they regroup and get back to winning because their organizations are structurally sound.

    You could say the same thing about the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers, the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings and MLB’s New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

    Poorly run organizations find ways to lose or remain in the abyss of mediocrity, like the Cowboys, no matter how many high draft picks they receive or coaches they hire.

    Bad organizations have systemic issues that can’t be solved by one high draft pick or one coach.

    Ladies and Gentleman, your Darryl Katz and Kevin Lowe run Edmonton Oilers!

  2. justDOit says:

    “… are off the pace because asshole Kassian”

    I think you meant, ‘Kassholian’.

  3. Brackenburied says:

    justDOit:
    “… are off the pace because asshole Kassian”

    I think you meant, ‘Kassholian’.

    Winner!
    You’re such a Kasshole.

  4. Hammers says:

    The only consistency I see is being on the bottom year in year out or basically one of the worst NHL teams . All the wishing , shots for, shots against , plus minus , is like blah blah blah . Verbage about a team treading water . With all of that funny enough I trust McTavish and I never trusted Tambo .He cleared out a dozen players last year and he now has to do it again . Time to reset McT .

  5. icecastles says:

    The Oilers have been cursed with buying high and selling low for as long as I can remember. A player has a career year that he has little chance of replicating? Lock him up at big $! A player has an off year that is likely an anomaly? Dump him and get nothing back.

    It’s a losing strategy, practiced by losers that guarantees more losing. I was dying for them to offload Souray after that one banner year, and we all remember how that turned out. Sam is not a world-beater and never will be. Nor is he as bad as this year suggests. And he could provide the kind of scoring depth that becomes a difference maker in the playoffs when the Halls and Nuges are sawing off against the Teowses and Kaneseses… precious.

    Gagner pisses me off and infuriates me. But unless they can fleece someone, I’m kind of hoping they keep him.

  6. Old School G says:

    icecastles:
    The Oilers have been cursed with buying high and selling low for as long as I can remember. A player has a career year that he has little chance of replicating? Lock him up at big $! A player has an off year that is likely an anomaly? Dump him and get nothing back.

    It’s a losing strategy, practiced by losers that guarantees more losing. I was dying for them to offload Souray after that one banner year, and we all remember how that turned out. Sam is not a world-beater and never will be. Nor is he as bad as this year suggests. And he could provide the kind of scoring depth that becomes a difference maker in the playoffs when the Halls and Nuges are sawing off against the Teowses and Kaneseses… precious.

    Gagner pisses me off and infuriates me. But unless they can fleece someone, I’m kind of hoping they keep him.

    Not that you need my backing but I completely agree with what you have said here, well played sir.

  7. spoiler says:

    pboy: Wrong sport but same idea. You could substitute Oilers for Cowboys and the story would read the same. Luckily, I’m not only an Oiler’s fan but a Cowboys fan as well.

    http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/10283811/jerry-jones-blame-dallas-cowboys-nfc-title-game-drought-hits-18-years.

    Here are some of the more pertinent passages:

    The sad part, if you’re a Cowboys fan, is that there’s zero tangible evidence that things are going to change anytime soon because the Cowboys have one of the most dysfunctional organizations in professional sports. Jones clearly thinks his way is the best way to run a franchise, although it’s clearly been unsuccessful for nearly 20 years.

    We’re talking about an organization with just four playoff appearances and four 10-win seasons since 1997. The Cowboys have had six head coaches in that time span — a figure exceeded only by K.C., Buffalo and Oakland — an indication the GM still believes any one of 500 coaches can lead his team.

    Look around the NFL at the league’s most consistent winners and you’ll see it’s all about the organization.

    The New York Giants. The Baltimore Ravens. The Pittsburgh Steelers. The New England Patriots. The Green Bay Packers. Sure, they have a bad season here or there, but they regroup and get back to winning because their organizations are structurally sound.

    You could say the same thing about the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers, the NHL’s Detroit Red Wings and MLB’s New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

    Poorly run organizations find ways to lose or remain in the abyss of mediocrity, like the Cowboys, no matter how many high draft picks they receive or coaches they hire.

    Bad organizations have systemic issues that can’t be solved by one high draft pick or one coach.
    Ladies and Gentleman, your Darryl Katz and Kevin Lowe run Edmonton Oilers!

    Sorry, I missed the bit where you showed Katz was just like Jones. Or did you just want to make the assertion?

  8. Dee Dee says:

    Yes it’s nice that Hall has scored 13 points, but allowing 16 goals against more than negates that.

    Seems to me that most of the plus players are all the new guys that learned to play two way hockey on other teams. Perrons 7 points pale in comparison but he’s +2 and out scoring his opposition at least.

  9. hunter1909 says:

    icecastles: The Oilers have been cursed with buying high and selling low for as long as I can remember. A player has a career year that he has little chance of replicating? Lock him up at big $! A player has an off year that is likely an anomaly? Dump him and get nothing back.
    It’s a losing strategy, practiced by losers that guarantees more losing.

    Shakespeare level comedy from this is Lowe+MacT constantly trumpeting their intentions before going to market, basically shouting to everyone how much money they have, what they want, and how much more they’re willing to pay because that’s Edmonton for you.

    Onward, Kevin Lowe and everyone’s endless resetting rebuild.

  10. icecastles says:

    pboy: if you’re a Cowboys fan, is that there’s zero tangible evidence that things are going to change anytime soon

    As long as they keep the cheerleaders, they can lose every game 100-0.

  11. pboy says:

    Until Jerry Jones dies, the Cowboys are going to be mediocre at best. I actually have higher hopes for the Oilers than I do the Cowboys. It’s so very sad…….

  12. Lowetide says:

    For several days now, this blog has been getting some really noxious posts. Some new, some old but there’s a lot of “you dumb Oiler fans” in here.

    We get it. You’re pissed. From here out, if you cannot keep the content from being personal, it will be deleted, no exceptions.

  13. spoiler says:

    Nice to see Hull get the call-up LT. That was a fine article he wrote on Gagner. I didn’t agree with everything, which is to be expected, but he was pretty thorough and it was an entertaining read. Kudos, to Alan, Allan.

  14. Caramel Obvious says:

    Does anyone remember the Penguins game? Or the Tampa game?

    There is some kind of psychological phenomenon at work here.

  15. icecastles says:

    Lowetide: We get it. You’re pissed. From here out, if you cannot keep the content from being personal, it will be deleted, no exceptions.

    I reserve the right to get personal about Kassian, Kessler, Burrows and anyone else who wears that God-forsaken jersey.

  16. Ryan says:

    icecastles:
    The Oilers have been cursed with buying high and selling low for as long as I can remember. A player has a career year that he has little chance of replicating? Lock him up at big $! A player has an off year that is likely an anomaly? Dump him and get nothing back.

    It’s a losing strategy, practiced by losers that guarantees more losing. I was dying for them to offload Souray after that one banner year, and we all remember how that turned out. Sam is not a world-beater and never will be. Nor is he as bad as this year suggests. And he could provide the kind of scoring depth that becomes a difference maker in the playoffs when the Halls and Nuges are sawing off against the Teowses and Kaneseses… precious.

    Nicely done.

    That’s Kevin Lowe in a nutshell and why this this team sucks all in one brief paragraph. Myopic is one word that comes to mind.

    He never learned his lesson after Horcoff which he’s shown time and time again.

    I was screaming sell high (wrt Gagner) last season when he was riding the percentages. Now, he’s been publicized as a available, but like Hemsky in the past there’s obviously been no interest..

  17. spoiler says:

    Ryan: I was screaming sell high (wrt Gagner) last season when he was riding the percentages. Now, he’s been publicized as a available, but like Hemsky in the past there’s obviously been no interest..

    When was there no interest in Hemsky?

  18. icecastles says:

    spoiler: When was there no interest in Hemsky?

    This summer it was made quite clear he was actively being shopped, as was the case last trade deadline (or the one before, I forget).

    And I think we can presume “no interest” means no reasonable interest. If they wanted to give him away for a 7th round pick, I’m sure there are a dozen teams that would be fighting to take him. But that’s not what I’d call reasonable interest. For whatever reason, the rest of the league doesn’t place the same value on Hemsky that we do. Could be us misjudging his value, could be them. Either way, it is what it is. They have tried to move Hemsky in the past and have been unable to do so.

  19. jdubbs says:

    Craig Ramsay?

  20. spoiler says:

    icecastles: This summer it was made quite clear he was actively being shopped, as was the case last trade deadline (or the one before, I forget).
    And I think we can presume “no interest” means no reasonable interest. If they wanted to give him away for a 7th round pick, I’m sure there are a dozen teams that would be fighting to take him. But that’s not what I’d call reasonable interest. For whatever reason, the rest of the league doesn’t place the same value on Hemsky that we do. Could be us misjudging his value, could be them. Either way, it is what it is. They have tried to move Hemsky in the past and have been unable to do so.

    There’s a whole whale of difference between “different valuations” and “7th rounders”. Ryan said “no interest”. Why befuddle the issue like that?

    And context comes into play here. Does Calamari being on the market affect any deal for Hemsky? Of course it does.

    And finally, weren’t we told by the media that Tambo had a 1st rounder on the table for Hemsky a couple of years ago and failed to pull the trigger?

  21. spoiler says:

    Not to mention do we have any idea how many times there may have been a deal on the table and an injury buggered it up?

  22. rickithebear says:

    HammerS:

    Chicago Blackhawks:
    96-97: 34-35-13
    97-98: 30-39-13
    98-99: 29-41-12 Arnason -> Bochenski -> Versteeg
    99-00: 33-37-10-2
    00-01: 29-40-8-5 T. Ruutu -> Ladd; Anderson
    01-02: 41-27-13-1 Kieth; Ellison -> Sharp
    02-03: 30-33-13-6 Seabrook; Crawford; Byfuglien
    03-04: 20-43-11-8 Bolland; Bickell; Brouwer
    04-05: lockout Skille -> Frolick; Hjarlmasson
    05-06: 26-43-13 Toews
    06-07: 31-42-9 Kane
    07-08: 40-34-8
    08-09: 46-24-12 Olsen; Pirri; Kruger
    09-10: 55-22-8 Hayes-> reacquire versteeg
    cup win 12 years after pick acquiring versteeg.
    10-11: 44-29-9 Saad; Shaw
    11-12: 45-26-11
    12-13: 36-7-5

    Oilers:
    1998 horcoff -> Larsen RFA
    2001 Hemsky UFA
    2002 Stoll:Greene -> Vishnovsky -> Whitney
    2003 Brodziak -> Bigos; O. Roy
    2004 Dubnyk UFA
    2005 Cogliano -> M-O Roy

    05-06 Stanley Cup Final Petry RFA
    06-07: 32-43-7 Gagner
    07-08: 41-25-6 Eberle
    08-09: 38-35-9 MP -> Perron; Lander
    09-10: 27-47-8 Hall; Pitlick; Marincin; Hamilton
    10-11: 32-40-10 RNH; Klefbom; Musil; Gernat
    11-12: 32-40-10 Yakupov; Moroz; Khaira; McCarron
    12-13: 19-22-07 Nurse; MO Roy; Yakimov; Slepyshev; Houck; Chase
    13-14: 15-28-5

    Whne you lok at Chicago’s seasons leading to there cup win teams.
    Katz Era is draft of 08 on.

  23. rickithebear says:

    Katz=jones?????????????????
    people need to look why a team is were it is.
    Sucky First rd drafting till 2008
    and any assets acquired thru the draft to 2007
    Traded away. pushing the depth to later drafts.
    The drafts under Katz./Macgregor.
    How do you not Smile.

  24. icecastles says:

    spoiler: Ryan said “no interest”. Why befuddle the issue like that?

    I don’t think he is befuddling the issue. Oilers tried to move Hemsky. MacT stated this, and he stated there were no reasonable offers. Hence, no interest.

    I see what you’re saying, but I think you are arguing a semantic point. Not sure what it is about this player that brings out the defensive stances. Just because we love a guy doesn’t mean the rest of the league has to, and acknowledging that they don’t doesn’t mean he is being ripped on.

    spoiler:
    Not to mention do we have any idea how many times there may have been a deal on the table and an injury buggered it up?

    That’s so completely in the realm of the hypothetical that it isn’t really worth discussing. Though this summer when he was being most actively shopped and the GM had publicly stated it was time for him to move on, there was no injury.

  25. Derek says:

    I imagine everyone here has already seen this, if not take a peek:

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/1/14/did-craig-mactavish-move-ladislav-smid-to-calgary-just-in-time

    Willis’ take on Smids recent performance, and the trade that sent him to Calgary.

    Poor Ladi, I really hope he improves.

  26. Andy P says:

    Dee Dee:
    Yes it’s nice that Hall has scored 13 points, but allowing 16 goals against more than negates that.

    Seems to me that most of the plus players are all the new guys that learned to play two way hockey on other teams. Perrons 7 points pale in comparison but he’s +2 and out scoring his opposition at least.

    The defensemen and goalies allowed 16 goals while Hall was on the ice. That’s a bit different to Hall allowing 16 goals, don’t you think? Doesn’t it just mean that Hall was playing with weak D/G?

  27. icecastles says:

    Andy P: The defensemen and goalies allowed 16 goals while Hall was on the ice. That’s a bit different to Hall allowing 16 goals, don’t you think?

    Taylor Hall is an even worse goalie than Dubnyk. Time to look at a buyout if we can’t trade him for a late pick.

  28. delooper says:

    Derek:
    I imagine everyone here has already seen this, if not take a peek:

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/1/14/did-craig-mactavish-move-ladislav-smid-to-calgary-just-in-time

    Willis’ take on Smids recent performance, and the trade that sent him to Calgary.

    Poor Ladi, I really hope he improves.

    Has Smid talked with reporters about what’s going on? When I watch his game it looks like he’s more or less the same guy, but he’s taken bits out of his game. He doesn’t lug the puck up the ice as much. Maybe he’s a little slower. Injuries taking their toll?

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    LTI have a hard time pegging his value, and am beginning to think the best plan might be to bring Sam back next season. It isn’t ideal, but people will not be happy with a horrible return for the young man and I suspect the offers are 30 cents on the dollar.

    Oiler mgmt have to stop thinking this way. Bringing back mediocre players every season begets mediocrity and nothing more.

    Surely if the mantra is ‘Get good players, keep good players,” that assumes the corollary “Identify the poor players, get rid of the poor players to make room for the good players.”

    Keeping Gagner past this season is the equivalent of holding onto that declining stock when you know it’s never going to recover its value. That is not efficient portfolio management. Yes, selling Sam at a loss sucks, but the reality is you can fully appraise the upside of this asset now and it’s simply not good enough if you have aspirations of winning a Cup.

    If the most you can get for Sam now is a tough two way winger for the third line. Then pull the bloody trigger. We need about 4 of those in the org. Then with the cap room you’ve cleared, go out and get a reasonable UFA C. Another Boyd Gordon is better for this team than another season with Sam Gagner at the 2 slot.

    Oiler mgmt (and some of the fanbase) needs to move past this belief that no contract can be moved out unless equal or better value comes back immediately in return. All that philosophy does is create a permanent home for declining assets and thus a culture of mediocrity. Surely, we can expect enough of our GM than just thinking one move at a time?

    Cap space is an asset. Cut out the deadwood and move on.

  30. commonfan14 says:

    icecastles: spoiler:
    Not to mention do we have any idea how many times there may have been a deal on the table and an injury buggered it up?
    That’s so completely in the realm of the hypothetical that it isn’t really worth discussing.

    Nevertheless, I believed at the time that Souray and Cogliano could have been dealt to the Ducks for a first rounder at the 2010 deadline if Souray hadn’t broken his hand.

    That both those guys ended up on the Ducks confirms this as fact in my Oiler-addled mind, and makes me all the more pissed that we don’t have Fowler on the team right now.

  31. delooper says:

    Bag of Pucks: Oiler mgmt have to stop thinking this way. Bringing back mediocre players every season begets mediocrity and nothing more.

    But there’s the rub. A mediocre player can be a key cog on a stanley cup winning team — if they have the right role and environment. With NHL calibre players, they’re all GOOD. There’s some players that need little to nothing else to be stellar, those are the superstars. Everyone else needs support. Give them the environment they need and they’ll appear wonderful. People weren’t moaning over losing Stoll and Green much but they went on to win a Stanley cup shortly after leaving. And they were important cogs on their team.

  32. Derek says:

    Hah.

    At the Edmonton Oilers official site the number 2 and 3 stories (after tonights matchup vs Dallas) are Reinhart and Ekblad.

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    Delooper, the problem with Gagner is his faceoff deficiencies put you behind the eight ball from a possession pov and his defensive errors cost you goals & contribute directly to losses.

    These are not warts you can work with. These are deal breakers.

    I agree with your assessment. All too often the Oil have parted ways with players like Chimera, Cleary and Brodziak, only for those players to wind up as useful role players elsewhere.

    But Sam is not that guy. He’s not going to reinvent himself as a two way grit guy. He’s top 6 or bust, and and on a team that badly needs some size, faceoff proficiency, and two way acumen amongst it’s top forwards – he’s the veritable square peg in a round hole. And he’s far two pricey for what he brings. If MacT holds this asset into his NMC phase, it’s a glaring error IMO

  34. Dee Dee says:

    Andy P,

    Doesn’t Perron play with the same Goalie as Hall? And defenders? It’s not like they trot out a different goalie when he goes on the ice.

    It’s just an observation. The entitled players on the team don’t have the same mindset in playing the game and it shows in the plus minus stats.

    Perron, Gordon, Ference have the best plus/minus on the team and certainly didn’t learn their playing style from the Oilers. Whereas Eberle, Gagner, Hall and Yakupov have the worst. The numbers don’t lie.

  35. G Money says:

    LT sez: I don’t know that anyone has the answer about Taylor Hall this season. His Corsi for % is very low based on his own established level of ability, and yet the points keep coming! If he played a full season and posted the same totals over those games as he has in the last 10, Hall would pass 100 points.

    Lordy, that Taylor Hall. Most everyone would agree he’s not having a great season. By Hall’s own admission, he’s working on the defensive side of the game, and struggling to become a more complete player. His centre hasn’t yet gotten his pubes. And the cannonballing son of a b is putting up +PPG.

    Thoughts:

    - Holy shit, for all the sucking and suffering we have to put up with as Oiler fans, let us all give a moment of thanks for Taylor Hall. A genuine superstar in the making. HE’S ONLY 22!!

    - Screw Kunitz. Put Hall on Crosby’s wing and we’re not talking fireworks, we’re talking heavy nuclear weaponry*.

    * Sigh. OK, back to the real world.

  36. pboy says:

    spoiler,

    Two organizations with glorious pasts both currently being run into the ground. I wasn’t comparing Katz and Jones specifically, as a matter of fact, they are polar opposites. Jones is too hands on, thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room and won’t let facts stand in the way of his ideas. Katz is none of those things. My only issue with Katz is that he refuses to hire the best people available, instead he’s employing people he knows.

  37. Ducey says:

    If holding onto Samwise in the short term gives you a chance to let him improve and increase his value (for a trade or the team), then you keep him. The pending no trade clause shouldn’t be a problem. Here is a list of all the players in the past that have exercised their no trade clause to stay in Edmonton:

  38. Ducey says:

    Dee Dee:
    Andy P,

    Doesn’t Perron play with the same Goalie as Hall? And defenders? It’s not like they trot out a different goalie when he goes on the ice.

    It’s just an observation. The entitled players on the team don’t have the same mindset in playing the game and it shows in the plus minus stats.

    Perron, Gordon, Ference have the best plus/minus on the team and certainly didn’t learn their playing style from the Oilers. Whereas Eberle, Gagner, Hall and Yakupov have the worst. The numbers don’t lie.

    Perron is 25 yrs old, Gordon is 30, Ference is 34.

    Ebs is 23, Gagner is 24, Hall is 22, Yak is 20.

    Those numbers don’t lie either.

  39. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: But Sam is not that guy. He’s not going to reinvent himself as a two way grit guy. He’s top 6 or bust, and and on a team that badly needs some size, faceoff proficiency, and two way acumen amongst it’s top forwards – he’s the veritable square peg in a round hole.

    Honestly, it’s the thing to do to jump on the anti-Sam-Gauoniaix bandwagon, but this may be a bit unfair.

    It’s worthwhile remembering that the Sammy we are seeing right now is struggling everywhere, not just defensively. We’re not seeing the touch passes and accurate wrist shot and deft stickhandling which are on the plus side of the Goonye roster, and that makes the defensive problems all the more acute. Until I see the offensive side of his game return, I’m not really expecting him to be able to give a fair showing defensively, and until that happens we won’t know what we’ve actually got. No idea why he’s struggling so bad, but no doubt he is struggling all over the ice.

    That said, I think your “square peg in round hole” is probably accurate, though again, perhaps a bit unfair to throw all on Garnier. We have small speedy wingers with questionable defensive acumen, so naturally having a small centre with questionable defensive acumen is a problem. The problem can be solved by getting a big defensively aware centre. It could also be solved by getting big defensively aware wingers. It’s no surprise that Gurnyers best year was with Penner as his linemate.

  40. G Money says:

    Ducey: Here is a list of all the players in the past that have exercised their no trade clause to stay in Edmonton:

    Ouch.

  41. delooper says:

    Ducey:
    If holding onto Samwise in the short term gives you a chance to let him improve and increase his value (for a trade or the team), then you keep him.The pending no trade clause shouldn’t be a problem.

    Gagner is still a good player. He just needs the kind of sheltering few Oilers are capable of giving him. If they trade him now they’ll get almost nothing so there’s probably little point in that. He can probably be a 2nd and 3rd line winger over the next few years. If he pushes his way up the depth chart as the Oilers hopefully bring in a few heavier players with skill, great. If not, he’ll be expendable by that time.

  42. Showerhead says:

    “Taylor Hall takes morning skate off but says shoulder he had repaired bothering him little. Minor stuff. He’s playing vs stars.#” – from Matheson’s twitter.

    Could this be the source?

    It might make more sense than the narrative I completely made up without any evidence whatsoever – that Taylor Hall has been flying the zone all season long with the thought that goals and assists were his ticket to the Olympics. It’s a good story, but I have no proof for it.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey:
    If holding onto Samwise in the short term gives you a chance to let him improve and increase his value (for a trade or the team), then you keep him.The pending no trade clause shouldn’t be a problem.Here is a list of allthe players in the past that have exercised their no trade clause to stay in Edmonton:

    First, that’s genuinely funny.

    Second, so the best strategy for MacT for this player is: hold onto mediocre player playing poorly in the hopes that they’ll return to their former mediocre level of play, so you can then swap them for an asset of commensurate mediocre value?

    How exactly does this philosophy contribute to winning games in the meantime?

    Sam Gagner is not our retirement nestegg. He’s a hockey player paid to performer to an expected level, and he’s not delivering on his end of the bargain. Fortunately, he can be replaced in the near future by an FA who will. That’s the play here. Not desperately holding onto the declining asset, when the value of that asset has long been established league wide as a soft mins only scorer with glaring defensive holes. The entire NHL know what Sam Gagner is. Once MacT accepts that, we should finally be able to part with this player and move onto the business of actually addressing deficiencies via player acquisitions instead of wishful thinking.

    Just as there is life after Ladi Smid, http://oilersnation.com/2014/1/14/did-craig-mactavish-move-ladislav-smid-to-calgary-just-in-time, I suspect there is life after Sam Gagner as well.

  44. icecastles says:

    On a totally different topic, great quote from Mats Zuccarello about playing for Norway in the Olympics (by way of NHL.com):

    “It’s going to be cool. A good experience. We’re a small country. I guess we have as many hockey players as Toronto has ice rinks.”

  45. denny33 says:

    I wonder if the Oilers are seriously considering bringing back both Hemsky and Smyth—they are worthy based on this season—and I would think the club signs 83 if the deadline offers are poor. That’s an actual NHL player we’re talking about here.
    **************************************************************************
    I have a hard time pegging his value, and am beginning to think the best plan might be to bring Sam back next season.
    ****************************************************************************************

    So bring back the whole forward crew that has been getting decimated by Western teams?

  46. serum114 says:

    Spitballing an idea: Would a Gagner for Kulemin and Reimer deal be appealing to both sides? Would this blog like it? If it’s off value-wise, in what direction and by how much?

  47. spoiler says:

    icecastles: I don’t think he is befuddling the issue. Oilers tried to move Hemsky. MacT stated this, and he stated there were no reasonable offers. Hence, no interest. I see what you’re saying, but I think you are arguing a semantic point. Not sure what it is about this player that brings out the defensive stances. Just because we love a guy doesn’t mean the rest of the league has to, and acknowledging that they don’t doesn’t mean he is being ripped on. That’s so completely in the realm of the hypothetical that it isn’t really worth discussing. Though this summer when he was being most actively shopped and the GM had publicly stated it was time for him to move on, there was no injury.

    Well he said, “in the past”, so I figured he was talking about all the times Hemsky was on the table… and his injuries surely have played both into his trade value and also his trade opportunities. Seems to me–out of my own befuddled head–that there was at least one occasion when Hemsky went down to an injury prior to being expected to be traded at the deadline. Maybe I have that memory wrong, don’t know.

    At any rate, you have helped me clear up my own point, which is essentially that “no interest” and not being able to reasonably improve or change your team out of a deal are different things. Sometimes semantics–accuracy with words–are as important as accuracy with numbers. Especially out here on this self-amplifying megaphone we call the Web. And I certainly don’t intend anything personal at Ryan, whose thoughts I generally appreciate reading.

  48. VanOil says:

    The man. The legend. The Welsh sheep dog?

    Jim Corsi, courtesy of Gord Miller

    http://t.co/xUpLhHxzfO

  49. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    LT sez: I don’t know that anyone has the answer about Taylor Hall this season. His Corsi for % is very low based on his own established level of ability, and yet the points keep coming! If he played a full season and posted the same totals over those games as he has in the last 10, Hall would pass 100 points.

    Lordy, that Taylor Hall.Most everyone would agree he’s not having a great season.By Hall’s own admission, he’s working on the defensive side of the game, and struggling to become a more complete player.His centre hasn’t yet gotten his pubes.And the cannonballing son of a b is putting up +PPG.

    Thoughts:

    - Holy shit, for all the sucking and suffering we have to put up with as Oiler fans, let us all give a moment of thanks for Taylor Hall.A genuine superstar in the making.HE’S ONLY 22!!

    - Screw Kunitz.Put Hall on Crosby’s wing and we’re not talking fireworks, we’re talking heavy nuclear weaponry*.

    * Sigh. OK, back to the real world.

    This.
    Our 2 best players ( Nuge/Hall) are competitive as hell.
    They are least of my worries.

  50. Bag of Pucks says:

    delooper: Gagner is still a good player.He just needs the kind of sheltering few Oilers are capable of giving him.If they trade him now they’ll get almost nothing so there’s probably little point in that. He can probably be a 2nd and 3rd line winger over the next few years.If he pushes his way up the depth chart as the Oilers hopefully bring in a few heavier players with skill, great.If not, he’ll be expendable by that time.

    But he’s not a good player. He’s a ‘cheats for offense’ player that consistently gets outscored by the opposition. He’s a center that can’t win a faceoff to save his live. And now, he can’t even produce points. What about this says, ‘good’ player?

    Why is this fanbase so invested in wishful thinking when it comes to failed prospects?

    Every year we hope and pray that THIS is the season Dubnyk or Gagner or Smid takes that final step, just as we did with Hemsky, Conklin, Pouliot and Whitney before them! Wishful thinking that mediocre players will suddenly become good players is what lands this team in the basement each and every year.

    Please Gord, make it stop.

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    denny33:
    I wonder if the Oilers are seriously considering bringing back both Hemsky and Smyth—they are worthy based on this season—and I would think the club signs 83 if the deadline offers are poor. That’s an actual NHL player we’re talking about here.
    **************************************************************************
    I have a hard time pegging his value, and am beginning to think the best plan might be to bring Sam back next season.
    ****************************************************************************************

    So bring back the whole forward crew that has been getting decimated by Western teams?

    denny33:

    So bring back the whole forward crew that has been getting decimated by Western teams?

    It’s mind boggling, isn’t it?

  52. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: First, that’s genuinely funny.

    Second, so the best strategy for MacT for this player is: hold onto mediocre player playing poorly in the hopes that they’ll return to their former mediocre level of play, so you can then swap them for an asset of commensurate mediocre value?

    How exactly does this philosophy contribute to winning games in the meantime?

    Sam Gagner is not our retirement nestegg. He’s a hockey player paid to performer to an expected level, and he’s not delivering on his end of the bargain. Fortunately, he can be replaced in the near future by an FA who will. That’s the play here. Not desperately holding onto the declining asset, when the value of that asset has long been established league wide as a soft mins only scorer with glaring defensive holes. The entire NHL know what Sam Gagner is. Once MacT accepts that, we should finally be able to part with this player and move onto the business of actually addressing deficiencies via player acquisitions instead of wishful thinking.

    Just as there is life after Ladi Smid, http://oilersnation.com/2014/1/14/did-craig-mactavish-move-ladislav-smid-to-calgary-just-in-time, I suspect there is life after Sam Gagner as well.

    I disagree.

    1. Winning games in the meantime (this season) isn’t really a priority is it?

    2. The best return you will get for Gagner is likely to constitute picks/ prospects who will not help next year much anyway.

    3. Unlike Smid, Gagner just came off a really good season (at least based on boxcars) and there is a likely reason for his dropoff (jaw/mask). He is still just 24 and not in his prime yet. Therefore the assumption that he is declining could be very much in error.

    I am not suggesting Gagner is going to turn into Crosby in the next year, but it would seem to be a reasonable bet that he will improve over the next year. If another GM is not willing to make a trade on this basis, you keep him.

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    See the future:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=536906&catid=4

    Try to keep your heart palpitations to a minimum.

    Note: the final minute or so some Oiler flack asks him a bunch of questions about the Oil. He’s appropriately non-commital. Seems she asks all the prospects the same group of Oiler questions.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    Koolaid, thy name is wishful thinking.

  55. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: But he’s not a good player. He’s a ‘cheats for offense’ player that consistently gets outscored by the opposition. He’s a center that can’t win a faceoff to save his live. And now, he can’t even produce points. What about this says, ‘good’ player?

    Why is this fanbase so invested in wishful thinking when it comes to failed prospects?

    Every year we hope and pray that THIS is the season Dubnyk or Gagner or Smid takes that final step, just as we did with Hemsky, Conklin, Pouliot and Whitney before them! Wishful thinking that mediocre players will suddenly become good players is what lands this team in the basement each and every year.

    Please Gord, make it stop.

    I think Gagner is a guy having a terrible year and boy he sure has some holes even when he’s healthy. I think “failed prospect” oversteps things by quite a bit, and relies on a very small sample size (fewer than 50 games).

    I’ll accept that Gagner is having a bad year, and even that he isn’t right for this team. I’ll even say that imo his value in trade is very poor.

    I think it’s extremely unwise to stand up on this day and make sweeping statements about this young man’s future.

  56. denny33 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Great post.

    Mac T dug himself in a hole – now trying to move Sam Gagner in a cap confined year.

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    K, let’s assume Gagner is a good bet to return to form (assuming of course, a return to form is even good enough to compete in the West).

    Why does that near certainty only land us picks in return? Surely, MacT’s not the only GM with a crystal ball capable of forecasting this appreciating asset?

    That’s where your argument is flawed. If Gagner the asset is such a good bet to appreciate in value, then there would be GMs out there offering something MacT would be willing to consider at this time. Why is it just picks if he’s such a good bet to get better? The unfortunate reality is however, GMs around the league have seen Gagner’s ceiling and they’re not interested in the package because the upside has never outweighed the deficiencies.

    The problem with holding onto him into next season is you lose the clear and immediate opp to upgrade in the FA market. So, as a manager, you’re trading the certainty of an upgrade (provided of course you can land the FA fish), for the uncertainty of a) Gagner returning to form b) finding a willing dance partner and then finally c) getting him to waive his NMC clause.

    Personally, I don’t see why we’re deriding the picks or a solid two way forward to play on the 3rd line? Assets you need in return for an asset you don’t, should be a good thing. Again, it comes back to this idea that an asset can’t be shipped out unless the immediate return is equal or better? That’s checkers, not chess.

  58. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    K, let’s assume Gagner is a good bet to return to form (assuming of course, a return to form is even good enough to compete in the West).

    Why does that near certainty only land us picks in return? Surely, MacT’s not the only GM with a crystal ball capable of forecasting this appreciating asset?

    That’s where your argument is flawed. If Gagner the asset is such a good bet to appreciate in value, then there would be GMs out there offering something MacT would be willing to consider at this time. Why is it just picks if he’s such a good bet to get better? The unfortunate reality is however, GMs around the league have seen Gagner’s ceiling and they’re not interested in the package because the upside has never outweighed the deficiencies.

    The problem with holding onto him into next season is you lose the clear and immediate opp to upgrade in the FA market. So, as a manager, you’re trading the certainty of an upgrade (provided of course you can land the FA fish), for the uncertainty of a) Gagner returning to form b) finding a willing dance partner and then finally c) getting him to waive his NMC clause.

    Personally, I don’t see why we’re deriding the picks or a solid two way forward to play on the 3rd line? Assets you need in return for an asset you don’t, should be a good thing. Again, it comes back to this idea that an asset can’t be shipped out unless the immediate return is equal or better? That’s checkers, not chess.

    GMs are trying to win the Stanley cup in the spring of 2014. I don’t think anyone believes 89 is going to be a big help in that quest, not from here. That doesn’t mean he’s useless forever, it means he has lost a year because of Kassian.

  59. Andy P says:

    pboy:
    spoiler,

    Two organizations with glorious pasts both currently being run into the ground. I wasn’t comparing Katz and Jones specifically, as a matter of fact, they are polar opposites. Jones is too hands on, thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room and won’t let facts stand in the way of his ideas. Katz is none of those things. My only issue with Katz is that he refuses to hire the best people available, instead he’s employing people he knows.

    In most cases, the people we know are the people we think are the best people available, and the people who appear to be the BPA turns out to be a bust that shows us why they had to move on from their last employ. Except there is a big difference between hiring personal friends (cronyism) and people you have been to war with that will accept your authority and you can trust to get the job done, often confused with cronyism.
    For what it’s worth.

  60. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    The problem with holding onto him into next season is you lose the clear and immediate opp to upgrade in the FA market.

    Why? The Cap is going up almost $7 million, and Eager, Grebs, Nultz, Jones and maybe Hemsky are likely gone. If Hemsky or Smyth come back, its likely at a lower price tag.

  61. spoiler says:

    pboy: spoiler, Two organizations with glorious pasts both currently being run into the ground. I wasn’t comparing Katz and Jones specifically, as a matter of fact, they are polar opposites. Jones is too hands on, thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room and won’t let facts stand in the way of his ideas. Katz is none of those things. My only issue with Katz is that he refuses to hire the best people available, instead he’s employing people he knows.

    Thanks, I was trying to rationalize what we know of the two owners in my head and it wasn’t jiving. Although, it was recently raised again that Katz overrode the scouting staff to pick Yak, so maybe there’s more involvement than we think?

    At any rate, other than the accusations of cronyism, it appears that Katz is doing his best to create a good organization, but these things don’t turn around overnight. Still I will take what we are going through now over the dark, hopeless days of the 1990s.

  62. spoiler says:

    denny33: Mac T dug himself in a hole – now trying to move Sam Gagner in a cap confined year.

    He can move him after the season when there is no cap confinement if he wishes. There is no real hole here. Nor is MacT responsible for Gagner’s present play on the ice, so I’m not sure how much digging we can assign to him.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Nurse comes in at #8 on Corey Pronman’s top 50

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: GMs are trying to win the Stanley cup in the spring of 2014. I don’t think anyone believes 89 is going to be a big help in that quest, not from here. That doesn’t mean he’s useless forever, it means he has lost a year because of Kassian.

    I like the Panthers as a trade partner. Tallon is supposedly desperate for offense.

  65. delooper says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The problem with holding onto him into next season is you lose the clear and immediate opp to upgrade in the FA market. So, as a manager, you’re trading the certainty of an upgrade (provided of course you can land the FA fish), for the uncertainty of a) Gagner returning to form b) finding a willing dance partner and then finally c) getting him to waive his NMC clause.

    What else are you going to do? Is Gagner going to get more of a return in a trade than Ben Eager?

  66. Jordan says:

    Lowetide: GMs are trying to win the Stanley cup in the spring of 2014. I don’t think anyone believes 89 is going to be a big help in that quest, not from here. That doesn’t mean he’s useless forever, it means he has lost a year because of Kassian.

    I think one of the items that people have forgotten about when it comes to the Gagner trade rumours is that Sam’s agent and presumably Sam himself agreed to explore the trade optiions for him.

    If he agreed to them now, even if he has a NTC, it doesn’t mean he CAN’T be moved. It means he has a veto on being moved to somewhere he doesn’t want to go. So, even if he isn’t moved this year, it doesn’t mean he can’t be moved in the summer, or next year, or the year after that. And if the value isn’t here this year… if the GM doesn’t beleive that the value is there… waiting on the player to improve is a reasonable gamble. You never know if it’s a smart gamble until afterwards, but that wouldn’t change the fact it was reasonable at the time. It’s the same as the Taylor-Tyler debate – you never know what the future holds, so you take your ticket and wait. Frankly, I like that Taylor has an extra game-breaker scratch & win on his ticket. I have no problem waiting for Gagner to find his game, so we can get a better player back – it’s not like we’re winning this season anyways.

    The only limits are the ones we place upon ourselves. Somehow, I don’t think MacT has placed any limits on what can happen with Samwise, or anyone else on this roster. Truth is, I’m curious to know what he chooses to do. So far, he seems like he wins more trades than he loses.

  67. Logan91 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I like the Panthers as a trade partner. Tallon is supposedly desperate for offense.

    Buffalos GM recently said that no one on the Sabres is untouchable

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey:
    Bag of Pucks,

    The problem with holding onto him into next season is you lose the clear and immediate opp to upgrade in the FA market.

    Why?The Cap is going up almost $7 million, and Eager, Grebs, Nultz, Jones and maybe Hemsky are likely gone.If Hemsky or Smyth come back, its likely at a lower price tag.

    What you describe sounds like a lot of cap space until you consider all the roster holes that need to be filled, with some of them fairly pricey positions at that (starting netminder, Top 2D, etc.). The more money MacT has to go shopping, and the more certainty he has going in, the better IMO

    To be fair, if MacT could swing a Paajarrvi for Perron type deal, I’d be all for exercising patience, but I think that deal was a combination of factors unlikely to be oft repeated (St Loo had cap issues, concerns about Perron’s concussion, and were genuinely bullish on Paajarvi’s potential. I think Gagner is a more known quantity because he’s been in the league a while now. I’m hard pressed to see GMs thinking Gagner’s got one last massive development spurt in him. Especially when his deficiencies are more related to will than skill.

  69. Caramel Obvious says:

    Dee Dee:
    Andy P,

    Doesn’t Perron play with the same Goalie as Hall? And defenders? It’s not like they trot out a different goalie when he goes on the ice.

    It’s just an observation. The entitled players on the team don’t have the same mindset in playing the game and it shows in the plus minus stats.

    Perron, Gordon, Ference have the best plus/minus on the team and certainly didn’t learn their playing style from the Oilers. Whereas Eberle, Gagner, Hall and Yakupov have the worst. The numbers don’t lie.

    These numbers lie. Forwards have very little (read no) discernible effect on save percentage. Conversations here proceed upon that premise.

    If you would like to challenge the premise by all means challenge the premise. However, until and unless that challenge is made all conclusions derived on the basis of your false premise are necessarily false.

    Consequently, your assertion is without merit.

    Now you could make the argument another way. For instance SA/60 and zone start:

    Hall: 32.9, 54.5%
    Perron: 30.6, 46.4%

    Adjust for zone starts (about a half shot per game on either side at those numbers) and you get:

    Hall: 33.6
    Perron: 30.6
    And for fun, Gordon: 18.1
    Hemsky: 22.8

    Hemsky and Gordon have been really great this year.

  70. spoiler says:

    Bag of Pucks: Especially when his deficiencies are more related to will than skill.

    Actually you have that backwards… it is virtually impossible to overcome a lack of Gord-given skill. However, someone open to learning can always be taught new ways to think and feel. Sometimes this takes a cathartic experience like a trade or two… see Cleary, Daniel and perhaps Cogliano, Andrew too. Maybe it is working for Seguin (who was also rejected twice, Oil and Bruins).

  71. rickithebear says:

    denny33: So bring back the whole forward crew that has been getting decimated by Western teams?

    Western teams?
    Western top 6

    All the teams in the league average 4 points in 10 games versus the top 6 in the west.
    Since our Change mid november.
    we are 0-9 versus the top 6.
    we were 10W-4-3OTL versus other west and East
    we are 5-2-1 versus the east
    And 2-1 against BOS, PIT, TMP The east top 3.
    5-2-2 versus the teams not in top 6 in west.

    SJS, CHI, LAK, ANA, COL, STL would be the top 6 teams in the east.

    Getting hammered by these six is every teams norm!

  72. Lois Lowe says:

    Lowetide,

    You’re doing a great job as mod. I haven’t seen or noticed anything of the sort. Aside from a few HFboards-like trade proposals, it’s seemed more or less the same around here to me.

  73. spoiler says:

    Bryzgalov has playoff experience and doesn’t have a ridiculous contract… I can easily see a team picking him up for tender insurance at the deadline. Depends on injuries, etc…

    In fact, I wonder if there was a gentleman’s agreement between Bryz & MacT to trade him to a playoff team if a deal is there and the Oil were still out of the running?

    Free 2nd rounder maybe? If so, that’s a pretty smart UFA signing by MAcT–essentially buying a decent draft pick with money and opportunity.

  74. denny33 says:

    spoiler,

    Okay – I thought Mac T was trying to trade him now to avoid the NMC clause.

    If that is the case – no reason to be forced to do a deal right now then….

    Fair point…

  75. Henry says:

    Bag of Pucks: What you describe sounds like a lot of cap space until you consider all the roster holes that need to be filled, with some of them fairly pricey positions at that (starting netminder, Top 2D, etc.). The more money MacT has to go shopping, and the more certainty he has going in, the better IMO

    To be fair, if MacT could swing a Paajarrvi for Perron type deal, I’d be all for exercising patience, but I think that deal was a combination of factors unlikely to be oft repeated (St Loo had cap issues, concerns about Perron’s concussion, and were genuinely bullish on Paajarvi’s potential. I think Gagner is a more known quantity because he’s been in the league a while now. I’m hard pressed to see GMs thinking Gagner’s got one last massive development spurt in him. Especially when his deficiencies are more related to will than skill.

    You make several good points. The MPS for Perron trade was a nice win against a cap stretched team. However this situation may be repeatable at the deadline. The Oilers have space and 20 odd teams are up against the cap and afraid to make a hockey trade (or any other) unless they get less cap hit.

    There will be some desperate teams willing to trade a good, but superfluous player, or asset, just to gain some cap space so they can go after the guys they really need. Perhaps a three way.

    It will be hard to trade Gagner’s contract to a contender until the summer except maybe Ottawa or the heating up Islanders.

  76. spoiler says:

    denny33: spoiler, Okay – I thought Mac T was trying to trade him now to avoid the NMC clause.If that is the case – no reason to be forced to do a deal right now then….Fair point…

    I think he is trying to trade him now, or at least he is from what we hear… but I don’t think he is limited to doing so if nothing works out before the deadline.

  77. Bag of Pucks says:

    The one thing I don’t understand about this thread is how someone can argue that A) the Oilers always sell their players for cents on the dollar & B) hoping for a declining asset to improve is somehow the solution to this problem?

    It takes substantial brass balls to trade players like Kessel or Seguin when their value is still extremely high, but isn’t it interesting how often the decisive GMs that make these moves end up having balanced rosters? IMO, the best GMs don’t let the market dictate their rosters, they pro-actively address needs well out in advance of the competition. Nine times out of ten, players are traded for cap reasons, impending FA status or because they’re on the decline (i.e. the inevitable change of scenery). If all the good teams in the league are waiting until their players are at the top of their game to trade them, I’m not seeing it?

    The sad reality is, were Gagner’s play to rebound to the point where he did actually have trade value representative of what you’d expect from a player of his pedigree (7th overall), the masses would lose their collective mind if we dealt him when he was playing so good!

    Stop already with all this nonsense of timing the market. It’s turning a simple problem into far too complex an issue. The issue is a LOT more simple than that. Look at the playoff teams in the West and the 2Cs we need to compete against. Sam Gagner is NEVER going to eat the lunch of those players. So every day that goes by with him taking up that roster spot and salary cap space, is one more day you’re conceding a better lineup to the opposition.

    Failure doesn’t just happen. It has to be enabled. And paralysis masquerading as patience is one of the ways it’s empowered.

    If your goal is truly competing for the Cup, then Sam Gagner is part of the problem, not part of the solution. Good GMs solve problems. They don’t wait for the market to solve the problem for them.

    This passive approach is how you end up losing ‘years’ If MacT had the cahones to actually address the starting goaltending last year, who knows how this team’s season could’ve been different? If hindsight is teaching us anything, it should be that Oil mgmt are too slow to act, not too hasty.

  78. delooper says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    If your goal is truly competing for the Cup, then Sam Gagner is part of the problem, not part of the solution. Good GMs solve problems. They don’t wait for the market to solve the problem for them.

    This passive approach is how you end up losing ‘years’If MacT had the cahones to actually address the starting goaltending last year, who knows how this team’s season could’ve been different? If hindsight is teaching us anything, it should be that Oil mgmt are too slow to act, not too hasty.

    You haven’t said what you’d do yet. You talk completely abstractly. What is available out there if you want to trade Gagner?

  79. denny33 says:

    rickithebear,

    Yes…those 6 teams you mentioned do play in the West.

    We have beaten Calgary twice, Nashville, Dallas, Colorado and Winnipeg.

    6-17-3 vs the West. By far the worst.

    Even middling teams like Dallas and Nashville do okay against the West. Dallas with 14 wins vs the west. Minny . even Nahville is 500 vs the west.

  80. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Good post. I agree with most of it.

    However, this paragraph:

    This passive approach is how you end up losing ‘years’ If MacT had the cahones to actually address the starting goaltending last year, who knows how this team’s season could’ve been different? If hindsight is teaching us anything, it should be that Oil mgmt are too slow to act, not too hasty.

    The Oilers have given up on lots of players too soon for little if any return: Satan, Hejda, Cogliano, Brodziak, Glencross.

    Kessel would not have been traded unless Burke overpaid.

    The time to get a great return has passed (about 5 years ago), so getting rid of Gagner is not analogous to the other situations you cited. Its about looking at the situation: Gagner’s had a bad year by his own standards. He is not likly to be worth much. The Oilers don’t have a plethora of centers. His replacement might be on the FA market, he may not. His immediate replacement is a small guy with 18 or so NHL games. On top of this Gagner could/ should improve. All of these factors point to the fact that there are real benefits to playing slow with Gagner.

    Oh, and we have lots of evidence that MacT had the balls to trade for a goaltender: He overbid at the draft for Schneider.

  81. Bag of Pucks says:

    spoiler: Actually you have that backwards… it is virtually impossible to overcome a lack of Gord-given skill.However, someone open to learning can always be taught new ways to think and feel.Sometimes this takes a cathartic experience like a trade or two… see Cleary, Daniel and perhaps Cogliano, Andrew too.Maybe it is working for Seguin (who was also rejected twice, Oil and Bruins).

    Actually, I don’t have it backwards. You’re misreading my point.

    Skilled players can take time to figure out how to translate that skill into production in the bigs. Thus, if you get them while they’re still figuring it all out, you stand a very good chance of getting additional upside beyond what is currently established (provided of course they develop fully to hit their true ceiling).

    Sam has been in the league for 5+ seasons. He’s produced points, and a strong argument could be made that he’s hit his production ceiling with the soft min diet RK fed him last season. Eakins says he sees the additional effort on the backcheck, but the defensively results don’t appear appreciably different, and now he’s been moved to the wing. The faceoff deficiencies are massive.

    I made the point earlier up the thread that Sam will not reinvent himself as a Clearly, Cogliano, Torres, Chimera type player. He’s Top 6 or bust. I truly believe that because Sam’s strengths (playmaking and his shot) do not lend themselves to defensive excellence. All those aforementioned players had speed. Sam does not, and ultimately, it’s his lack of footspeed that will doom him to soft mins mediocrity imo. Which, in an odd way, agrees with your point about God given skill or lack thereof!

    Btw, for everyone arguing that waiting to trade Gags until his value recovers is the correct move, does that mean we have to wait until his next 8 point game, or that, we should’ve traded him immediately after that tilt? ; )

  82. denny33 says:

    Bruce has a GREAT article up on Cult of Hockey…required reading.

  83. delooper says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Btw, for everyone arguing that waiting to trade Gags until his value recovers is the correct move, does that mean we have to wait until his next 8 point game, or that, we should’ve traded him immediately after that tilt? ; )

    I think you’re misreading people. You’re fantasizing some kind of trade. Would you buy out his contract, and do you think the team would get better immediately if he was kept off the ice with no replacement? If not, what’s your point? What is your fantasy trade?

  84. rickithebear says:

    Caramel Obvious: These numbers lie.Forwards have very little (read no) discernible effect on save percentage.Conversations here proceed upon that premise.

    If you would like to challenge the premise by all means challenge the premise.However, until and unless that challenge is made all conclusions derived on the basis of your false premise are necessarily false.

    Consequently, your assertion is without merit.

    Now you could make the argument another way.For instance SA/60 and zone start:

    Hall: 32.9, 54.5%
    Perron: 30.6, 46.4%

    Adjust for zone starts (about a half shot per game on either side at those numbers) and you get:

    Hall:33.6
    Perron: 30.6
    And for fun, Gordon:18.1
    Hemsky: 22.8

    Hemsky and Gordon have been really great this year.

    ZOne start is a face off.
    Zone start measure how a player is thrown out.
    But Fo% dictates what the expected Sh rate should be.
    Face off loss in own zone is a shot 50% of the time.
    in areas requiring zone entry it is 37%

    I would want to have , Malhotra 60%FO 24%ZS , Gordon 58%FO 25% ZS, Boyle 56%FO 23%ZS, Stastny 54% rather than gagner 46% and RNH 40%

    Hall-Gordon-XXX
    Perron-Statsny-Eberle
    Yak-Boyle-RNH
    XXX-Malhotra-XXX
    Gauzdic-XXX
    yummy

  85. spoiler says:

    Bag of Pucks: I made the point earlier up the thread that Sam will not reinvent himself as a Clearly, Cogliano, Torres, Chimera type player. He’s Top 6 or bust. I truly believe that because Sam’s strengths (playmaking and his shot) do not lend themselves to defensive excellence. All those aforementioned players had speed. Sam does not, and ultimately, it’s his lack of footspeed that will doom him to soft mins mediocrity imo. Which, in an odd way, agrees with your point about God given skill or lack thereof!

    I’m glad we agree on the difference between that which is innate talent and that which is a learned ability. It is pretty well-accepted that defense usually falls into the second category. And I’d like to point out that speed isn’t what is preventing Gagner from picking up the man in the slot when they are hemmed in their own end.

    And while Gagner isn’t fast, he isn’t slow either. I’d say balance/stability is the biggest problem with his skating, not speed.

    If we were to take a look at the goal on that odd man rush started by a Ference (IIRC) pinch that ricocheted in off Gagner the other night, I think we would see part of the problem… Gagner does not break to cover Ference’s spot until Ference loses the pinch battle. In other words, Sam-not-so-wise cheated for O. Down on the scoreboard, maybe that’s what the coach wanted, but I doubt it. And yet, despite that cheat, he dashed down the ice and got back into the play well enough to have the puck go in off him. That’s a mental error not a footspeed error. Great footspeed can make up for a lack of smarts or anticipation, certainly, but a lack of world class wheels can also be overcome by smarter play.

  86. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Good post.I agree with most of it.

    However, this paragraph:

    This passive approach is how you end up losing ‘years’ If MacT had the cahones to actually address the starting goaltending last year, who knows how this team’s season could’ve been different? If hindsight is teaching us anything, it should be that Oil mgmt are too slow to act, not too hasty.

    The Oilers have given up on lots of players too soon for little if any return: Satan, Hejda, Cogliano, Brodziak, Glencross.

    Two things. One, are these not the sins of the father? I’m still hoping MacT demonstrates the decisiveness needed for the job.

    Two, as long as that list is, you could make equally as long (or longer) of players they held onto for too long and then lost for peanuts. Souray, Moreau, Whitney, Roloson, Horcoff, etc.

    The gate always swings both ways, but this team’s window is not going to stay open forever. MacT needs to address the roster imbalance asap. Hopefully they dont’ realize the time for patience in this rebuild is past when Hall walks in to the GM’s office and asks for a trade.

  87. Ryan says:

    spoiler: There’s a whole whale of difference between “different valuations” and “7th rounders”.Ryan said “no interest”.Why befuddle the issue like that?

    And context comes into play here.Does Calamari being on the market affect any deal for Hemsky?Of course it does.

    And finally, weren’t we told by the media that Tambo had a 1st rounder on the table for Hemsky a couple of years ago and failed to pull the trigger?

    split hairs much?

  88. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: I’m glad we agree on the difference between that which is innate talent and that which is a learned ability.It is pretty well-accepted that defense usually falls into the second category.And I’d like to point out that speed isn’t what is preventing Gagner from picking up the man in the slot when they are hemmed in their own end.

    And while Gagner isn’t fast, he isn’t slow either.I’d say balance/stability is the biggest problem with his skating, not speed.

    If we were to take a look at the goal on that odd man rush started by a Ference (IIRC) pinch that ricocheted in off Gagner the other night, I think we would see part of the problem…Gagner does not break to cover Ference’s spot until Ference loses the pinch battle.In other words, Sam-not-so-wise cheated for O.Down on the scoreboard, maybe that’s what the coach wanted, but I doubt it.And yet, despite that cheat, he dashed down the ice and got back into the play well enough to have the puck go in off him.That’s a mental error not a footspeed error. Great footspeed can make up for a lack of smarts or anticipation, certainly, but a lack of world class wheels can also be overcome by smarter play.

    Very fair critique. Sam’s anticipation has been terrible the entire season, and defensively he was never the best at any of those assignments. However, this season has been a disaster in this area, and even when he does catch up, he does just enough to be “in the play” without “impacting the play” for the most part.

  89. Ryan says:

    spoiler: I think he is trying to trade him now, or at least he is from what we hear… but I don’t think he is limited to doing so if nothing works out before the deadline.

    Well, Mact’s leverage drops significantly once the NMC kicks in.

    What’s your return on Gagner when the market for him is soft to begin with and Gagner’s waving around a list of five teams that he’s willing to waive his NMC for…???

    at that point, you take your 2nd round pick and move on or ride out his contract.

  90. spoiler says:

    Ryan: split hairs much?

    Nope.

  91. commonfan14 says:

    Bag of Pucks: It takes substantial brass balls to trade players like Kessel or Seguin when their value is still extremely high, but isn’t it interesting how often the decisive GMs that make these moves end up having balanced rosters?

    Point taken, although I would say that Seguin was actually traded precisely when his value was at its lowest point of his entire career. Which is about where we are with Gagner now.

    While it was probably a necessary move for Boston and they got some okay pieces out of it, it’s certainly not a trade you’d put in the win column when considered in a vaccuum.

    Something similar on a smaller scale is probably our best-case scenario for any Gagner deal made right now.

  92. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Very fair critique. Sam’s anticipation has been terrible the entire season, and defensively he was never the best at any of those assignments. However, this season has been a disaster in this area, and even when he does catch up, he does just enough to be “in the play” without “impacting the play” for the most part.

    Is he Dizzy? And if so, which Dizzy is he?

    Ie. is this play the result of a traumatic injury to his noggin? Or has he purposely changed something–like Dizzy Dean did after he broke his toe–and it has ruined everything?

    Will there be a regression to the mean (offensively) or is he broken and in decline? I don’t think that we are close enough to the player to say.

  93. spoiler says:

    Ryan: Well, Mact’s leverage drops significantly once the NMC kicks in.What’s your return on Gagner when the market for him is soft to begin with and Gagner’s waving around a list of five teams that he’s willing to waive his NMC for…???at that point, you take your 2nd round pick and move on or ride out his contract.

    Agreed on the NMC point, but there is actually a span of time between the end of the season and July 1.

  94. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Is he Dizzy? And if so, which Dizzy is he?

    Ie. is this play the result of a traumatic injury to his noggin?Or has he purposely changed something–like Dizzy Dean did after he broke his toe–and it has ruined everything?

    Will there be a regression to the mean (offensively) or is he broken and in decline?I don’t think that we are close enough to the player to say.

    Well, he was less of a disaster in previous seasons, but then again he was no screaming hell. I think Horcoff probably covered off a lot more than some of us thought and now we are here. The other thing about Sam is if you keep him, then Hemsky is a goner for sure.

  95. commonfan14 says:

    Ryan: Well, Mact’s leverage drops significantly once the NMC kicks in.
    What’s your return on Gagner when the market for him is soft to begin with and Gagner’s waving around a list of five teams that he’s willing to waive his NMC for…???

    This point should also be brought up whenever someone brings up any scenarios related to the ideas that:

    a) it would be possible to trade for Ehrhoff (who has a NMC); and
    b) we would need to part with something as valuable as our 1st rounder to get him.

  96. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Well, he was less of a disaster in previous seasons, but then again he was no screaming hell. I think Horcoff probably covered off a lot more than some of us thought and now we are here. The other thing about Sam is if you keep him, then Hemsky is a goner for sure.

    I think Hemsky is a goner. I think he is in Pittsburgh these playoffs, barring that they might prefer burnt Calamari. I mean, if you’re them, and you want wing help, wouldn’t you pay more for Hemmer? …No contract after this year to worry about, more sound defensively, world class speed, and at least as good offensively? (as Gagner, I mean, not the squid)

  97. rickithebear says:

    denny33:
    rickithebear,

    Yes…those 6 teams you mentioned do play in the West.

    We have beaten Calgary twice, Nashville, Dallas, Colorado and Winnipeg.

    6-17-3 vs the West.By far the worst.

    Even middling teams like Dallas and Nashville do okay against the West. Dallas with 14 wins vs the west. Minny . even Nahville is 500 vs the west.

    Denny if you could not see the high Pressure shit show that gave odd man rushes and free box funnel area in our zone till nov 15.

    That Arogant experiment from an AHL coach. got us 5-15-2.

    if you are going base our team on a system that is now abandon cause of sheer failure.
    Stand in front of a board and say I know this is not used anymore but i am stiill going to use its results going forward.

    System tried system gone.
    New system team.
    0-9 versus the top 6 in west.
    5-2-1 against the east
    2-1 against east top 3

    our team going Forward
    When looking at our Problems

    -LOOK AT:
    -the best (TK-GV) / Shifts players for the 80/140 pocessionnot based on FO.
    in order of best to worst.
    Positive players
    Acton; Lander; Arcobello; Perron; RNH; Gordon;
    EvenPlayer/s
    Jones
    Slight Negative Players
    Hemsky; Smyth; Eberle
    Worse than 30% pocession Diffence
    Hal; Jeonsuu; Gagner; Gazdic; Yak
    Pretty simple do they gain or give pocession.

    -The ability of the defence to prevent released pucks to the net.
    -The abilty of the defence to prevent shots from within 25ft of the box area.
    -The abilty of the forwards to prevent shot release from 35-25 feet in the box area.
    -The goalie save% inside 25 feet.
    I was a huge Dubnyk supporter. But inside 15ft. not Pretty.

    -Our failure to Adopt a system that puts emphasis on Pocession into the opposition zone.
    -FO% of the 60 Zone based starts (FO) pocessions.
    -Use high FO% centers in Ozone and our D zone. wre there is a 35% diffrence in reward versus the other team.
    -Our Dzone win 37% shots from pocession. There win in our Dzone 50% shots from pocession.
    -Limit dump and chasewhich results in poor pocession and shot counts. Controlled pocession and Chip and Chase.
    That try to make the d have difficult movement and turns to puck. Rather than a simple turn stride to corner and pocession out.
    -Eliminate backing up from Blueline providing free entry. Results in 35% more shots.
    -Neutral zone pressure the opposition into dump and Chase.
    -Strong stick handling Goalie.

    All common sense actions labelled the right way to play. Dating way back. all are being measured.

  98. G Money says:

    Lowetide: Well, he was less of a disaster in previous seasons, but then again he was no screaming hell. I think Horcoff probably covered off a lot more than some of us thought and now we are here. The other thing about Sam is if you keep him, then Hemsky is a goner for sure.

    This is one of the “Visualize Player over Time” charts for Gagner (ZS adjusted GF, CF, etc), up to last year:

    http://i.imgur.com/hTk7jIO.png

    It’s a safe bet that this year is about on par with last year, which was a complete and utter disaster, Gagner’s worst year, worse than his rookie year.

    So … what happened (other than RK) between two years ago and last year? It isn’t just Horc, ’cause he was here last year.

    If the Gagner of the three years prior to RK could just show up, we’d be back to what he used to be: an offensively gifted young man who generally does a good job playing the not-so-tough minutes. We’d be arguing about whether he’s ideal for the role, instead of arguing about whether he gets us a second or a seventh round pick.

  99. Bag of Pucks says:

    delooper: You haven’t said what you’d do yet.You talk completely abstractly.What is available out there if you want to trade Gagner?

    Sorry, I don’t have the other 29GMs of the league on speed dial.

    This is a straw man that gets trotted out fairly frequently. If you’re advocating trading a player, you’re expected to name the exact return which is always going to be speculative which then opens your position up for criticism from another tangent.

    I’d part with Gagner for any of the following (a strong two way 3rd line winger with size, a trending C prospect with size, a serviceable Top 4 D, or picks and cap room with a replacement C bought in the FA market)

    There’s a lot to be gained from simply getting rid of bad players and opening up roster spots for competition. Imagine, the Oilers are a band and Gagner is their bad drummer. It doesn’t matter what you do to cover up for him, he’s always going to drag everyone else down with his crap performance. Sometimes the best thing you can do is give the guy his walking papers and then open up the spot for auditions.

    I have this mental picture of Ryan Kesler or Logan Couture getting ready to play the Oilers. The coach tells them they’re matched up against Gagner’s line that night and they laugh and laugh and laugh….Doubt their reaction is the same when it’s Boyd Gordon.

  100. Lowetide says:

    G Money: This is one of the “Visualize Player over Time” charts for Gagner (ZS adjusted GF, CF, etc), up to last year:

    http://i.imgur.com/hTk7jIO.png

    It’s a safe bet that this year is about on par with last year, which was a complete and utter disaster, Gagner’s worst year, worse than his rookie year.

    So … what happened (other than RK) between two years ago and last year?It isn’t just Horc, ’cause he was here last year.

    If the Gagner of the three years prior to RK could just show up, we’d be back to what he used to be: an offensively gifted young man who generally does a good job playing the not-so-tough minutes.We’d be arguing about whether he’s ideal for the role, instead of arguing about whether he gets us a second or a seventh round pick.

    Sure, but you’ll agree that this is the point in time where it behooves the Oilers to be patient, no? This was a player with value, he struggled with Hemsky (as has been widely viewed and discussed) and now this season Kassian ended him.

    I’m not certain the Oilers can afford to keep him next year, because signing Hemsky is probably the better plan, but dealing him now for Brandon Sutter doesn’t seem terribly wise to me.

  101. delooper says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    It’s not clear you’d get any of those things. Maybe some late picks. And for whatever its worth, I think you’ve misrepresented “straw man”. To be a straw man argument I would have had to insinuate some position on your part, and I did not.

  102. nycoil says:

    Been a little while since I posted, but I, too, hope MacT is patient here. I hope that he is aware (I am sure he is), that veterans with expiring contracts who can help teams now are valued most highly at the deadline, and picks are valued most highly at the draft. Therefore, he should be trading veterans at the deadline in exchange for picks, then trading picks at the draft for players.

    If MacT pulled Smyth and Hemsky aside and said, “Listen guys, been a while since you played a meaningful game. If I were to trade you to a playoff team at the deadline, would you come back to sign with us in the summer? We could use you next year to help us get this thing finally right, but you may also enjoy the breath of fresh air for a bit.” I think Smyth probably would come back to re-sign. Not as sure about Hemsky. It’s worth having the conversation, anyway, to see what they are thinking?

    On another note, since the 1st round pick will be worth more at the draft than now, do you think holding on to it until then, then trading it to a team with a known need for a young blueliner may be best (and yes, I read the MacT interview where he is now inclined to hold onto it).

    If, for example, you could offer #2 overall (with Ekblad on the board but the German gone), to Philly for Couturier and Laughton, and Philly agreed because they wanted to get that stud blue-liner, would you do it?

    Then sign a UFA C that might be overlooked to take the 2C role and move Gagner over to the wing for good (For example, I see Stastny having to take a paycut from his current cap hit, but still likely to be odd man out in Colorado with future/present Cs in O’Reilly, Duchene, Mackinnon taking all the money), and also add two D like Girardi and Markov for the blue.

    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Stastny-Gagner-Hemsky (if he re-signs or comes back post-trade)
    Couturier-Arcobello-Yakupov (big defensively responsible C for Yak to have a bit more freedom)
    Gordon-Smyth-Laughton/Lander (Break Laughton/Lander in on 4th line wing with two vets, see who wins out)

    Markov-Petry
    Schultz-Girardi
    Marincin-Ference

    Goalie A
    Goalie B

    Depending on the goalies, does that get the team close to the 2nd season?

    Feel free to change the names you like in the UFA list or come up with a different trade idea for the 1st rounder, but the overall idea being: sign improvements in key positions in the summer, maximize value on the trades based on timing.

  103. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    I don’t how plugged in Jeff Marek is, but for years he has been saying that he sees Gagner as the perfect winger for Sid, and about a month ago (I think?) he implied that Sid had asked Shero to get him Gagner. He may have been projecting.

    In any case, I would expect that Gagner has a higher trade value than Hemsky because he is young and signed, but I might be wrong. Depends if the GM on the phone believes last year was his worst season or his best (opinions in Edmonton are clearly split), and how much blame he’s willing to put on recovering from a broken jaw.

    I would be happy with Maata back, but I admit to not looking into this at all and completely chugging the kool-aid coming out of Pittsburgh, They seem to think he is the next OEL.

  104. book¡je says:

    G Money,

    Its really too bad that this trend wasn’t available to the team when they signed him to a 3 year deal.

  105. book¡je says:

    Now watch Gagner go out and get 8 points tonight…

  106. G Money says:

    Lowetide: Sure, but you’ll agree that this is the point in time where it behooves the Oilers to be patient, no?

    Agreed. And that may simply be a matter of not having a choice – if the only thing the other guy is offering is a seventh round pick, do you take it in exchange for a player that once put up 8 points in a single game against a Cup contender?

    book¡je:
    G Money,

    Its really too bad that this trend wasn’t available to the team when they signed him to a 3 year deal.

    My buddies in University and I used to have a joke saying: 20/20 hindsight is better than no hindsight at all!

    I know you’re being sarcastic on this but I don’t necessarily agree … I think the challenge for MacT & co. when they offered that 3 year deal is that they did indeed have that chart, but it wasn’t a “trend” they could use for decision making. It was a (barely discernible) year on year improvement from a young player, culminating in a single terrible year. Do you assume the bad year defines the player, or do you assume the four year trend prior to that defines the player?

    Even today, we still have the ultimate Gaouniaix question: at the tender age of 24, can he recover? Can he find his game or is he already ruined and done?

  107. prairieschooner says:

    Someone mentioned earlier that there are 20 teams up against the cap if this is accurate, how many of those teams with space are actually in the market?

    Flawed thinking?

    Consistently picking BPA has left the Oilers with an unbalanced roster
    Obviously they knew this would happen and they have accepted the fact that they would have to trade some of those BPAs for players to fill actual needs.

    There are two “currencies” involved here Draft selections that you use to fill your roster from a positional need POV ( This is not the common method)

    Trade your BPA’s at a later date to fill in the holes in your roster (Oilers method)

    Selecting for positional need may have a higher risk to leave you with a player who did not reach his maximum potential (In the oilers case we have been drafting in the top 10 for ever)

    On the other hand selecting BPA requires management to trade for the required position with a team who has exactly what the Oilers need and are willing to deal for said player.
    The BDA ( best deal available) may not get the Oilers exactly what they want in which case they might have been better selecting the position rather than the player

    An obvious example would have been Nail versus Galchenyuk ( Russian centre)

  108. denny33 says:

    stevezie,

    I agree with your thought process.. I also think Sam – as a winger – could excel in the East.

    Just not sure if Pit can absorb Sam’s near 5 million dollar contract – even with an expanding cap.
    ( Orpik to sign etc, )

    To be candid – I so want to move Sam that I contort myself into actually building him up as a salesman to other GM’s.

    To be clear, even before this year and his injury – Sam Gagner has been one of the easiest centre’s in the NHL to play against. Points or no points he gets owned.

    In fact, I thought even last year this forum had decided Sam had to be moved.

    Sam turns 25 this summer. If anyone thinks he is going to suddenly develop defensive awareness now is crazy.

    I definitely think with a fresh start in the East and a new team Sam can excel on offense.

    But that kind of deal – I think – is what we may be in store for….an elite prospect of some kind.

    Would love Maata or Pouliot….

  109. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/centrals-list-offers-a-plethora-of-talent

    What’s happened in the last month to push you into RomLand love for Draisaitl?

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1889814-stock-watch-for-top-prospects-in-the-2014-nhl-entry-draft/page/9

    In the intervening time we’ve seen his WHL scoring stay apace, but he had a pretty frustrating WJC and I know you don’t rate PIMs very highly.

  110. VOR says:

    God Paul Satstny pushes tough ice!

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/colorado-avalanche/2013

    Then he posts positive corsi to boot. It also isn’t a fluke. He does this year after year. Maybe he really was worth $6,600,000 per year. Pure magician on the power play and above average in the face off circle. The best part is he delivers all that each and every year and still is in his prime. One top of which none of his linemates have been as good as Yak and Perron would be. He wants out of Colorado for obvious reasons.

    I think NYCOIL and rickibear are right. Paul Stastny for 2C.

  111. WeirsBeard says:

    Lowetide: Sure, but you’ll agree that this is the point in time where it behooves the Oilers tobe patient, no? This was a player with value, he struggled with Hemsky (as has been widely viewed and discussed) and now this season Kassian ended him.

    I’m not certain the Oilers can afford to keep him next year, because signing Hemsky is probably the better plan, but dealing him now for Brandon Sutter doesn’t seem terribly wise to me.

    Do you think we’ve seen what Gagner can be at his peak? I don’t. I’m worried this is going to be another losing move if he gets shipped out soon.

    What does the cap room do for you though in trading Gagner’s bat for Sutter’s leather?

  112. Bag of Pucks says:

    NYCOIL, I like the approach and I hope that MacT is planning in a similar fashion.

    This org has been guilty of one move at a time, and when that move fails, move back to square one – for far too long.

    As you’ve done, they need to layout an achievable blueprint that addresses all of their roster needs and then proceed to systemically cross each of them off the list.

    I could absolutely see Ed Snider biting on an Ekblad for Laughton/Couturier deal, and that’s precisely the kind of ‘bold move’ MacT needs to make at this time.

    The big X factor is the starting goaltender, and to me, that’s where MacT will earn his stripes this offseason…or not.

  113. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: What’s happened in the last month to push you into RomLand love for Draisaitl?

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1889814-stock-watch-for-top-prospects-in-the-2014-nhl-entry-draft/page/9

    In the intervening time we’ve seen his WHL scoring stay apace, but he had a pretty frustrating WJC and I know you don’t rate PIMs very highly.

    Range of skills. When I began looking at all of these players near the top, the Dangler was the only one who:

    1. has size
    2. skill
    3. speed has improved through hard work
    4. good motor
    5. He’s pushing the river (best offensive player on his team)
    6. Has reached last year’s point total in half the games.

  114. JohnnyRocket says:

    Does anyone have any thoughts on a possible deal for Roman Josi? He is signed long term at a 4 million cap hit. He’s not a clear number one, but he’s another Petry level defender with a possibility for growth. Would Gauniger plus a prospect do it, given Nashville’s scoring woes?

    Or Rundland from the Coyotes? Would Ganniar for Rundland and a 2nd be fair? He’s got one year left on contract, but is still an RFA after that. The Coyotes need some scoring and are also fighting for a playoff spot. Someone should bite, no? And both guys would fulfill MacT’s being here when we’re contending criteria. Both teams are deep defensively, and can’t score enough lately by committee.

    And LT. Could provide a link to Pronman’s new list? I can’t find it. I’m glad Nutse is at 8. He was 11 pre draft. Maybe he’ll crack the top 5 by next year. :)

  115. WeirsBeard says:

    How are we this deep into a thread and there has been nary a mention of this Horcoff fellow who plays for the (spits) Stars? Reminds me of this Russian who once suited up for the Oil…

  116. Lowetide says:

    WeirsBeard:
    How are we this deep into a thread and there has been nary a mention of this Horcoff fellow who plays for the (spits) Stars? Reminds me of this Russian who once suited up for the Oil…

    filthy Russian.

  117. Jon K says:

    Lowetide: Range of skills. When I began looking at all of these players near the top, the Dangler was the only one who:

    1. has size
    2. skill
    3. speed has improved through hard work
    4. good motor
    5. He’s pushing the river (best offensive player on his team)
    6. Has reached last year’s point total in half the games.

    LT, what in your mind distinguishes Draisaitl as being a good fit for the team compared to Sam Bennett? I do notice that Bennett is only listed as 6′ and 181 lbs. Part of the criticisms of Draisaitl to date have been competitiveness and physical play, I thought? He’s got 18 and 22 PIMs last two seasons, compared to 80 or so for Bennett, for whatever that’s worth.

  118. Lowetide says:

    WeirsBeard: Do you think we’ve seen what Gagner can be at his peak? I don’t. I’m worried this is going to be another losing move if he gets shipped out soon.

    What does the cap room do for you though in trading Gagner’s bat for Sutter’s leather?

    The things about Gagner that make him valuable (passing, creativity) are duplicated in the lineup manyfold. That doesn’t mean he’ll fail in his new town, and that’s the danger. I don’t think MacT gets full value, and that’s fine, but he said that Gagner would go for a piece of the future that will be around for the winning.

    I think he needs to hold himself to that.

  119. JohnnyRocket says:

    How is old Horcoff doing? Providing Dallas with exactly what the Oilers need right now: a veteran hand to eat tough minutes while the kids on the top line eat everyone’s lunch. Could you imagine having Gordan and the dirty Russian one this team? I know there’d be whining about having a 5.5 million dollar centre on the 4th line, but man, would that subtract alot of goals against. Chicago has a defensive zone starting 4th line that eats minutes and breaks even. But I am happy for the man. It must feel good to be winning games ( although not lately).

  120. spoiler says:

    They’re all spies, you know.

  121. JohnnyRocket says:

    LT, do you have a link to the Pronman list? I’ve been sick in bed for days, and have read everything on the interwebs. Would love to peruse that list.

  122. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    When he was a Cane Zona was trumpeting Sutter as a deserving Selke candidate, if not winner. I don’t watch as many Pens games as I would like to, but I have not heard great verbal on him there.

    Maybe he’s not a bad “buy low”. If we dare enter the realm of fantasy, if we could get him andMaata…

    That doesn’t seem realistic. But Sutter was a 35 point guy in Carolina where he was getting normal zone starts and better linemates, (relatively). I see him as a young Boyd Gordon. I would also accept poor man’s Ryan O’Reilly, though if someone who watches a lot of Pens games told me that should read “homeless man’s” I could be convinced.

    I don’t know why I wrote so much about a guy I agree should not be our prime target. I’ve always liked Sutter, I don’t know why… Maybe it’s because he is intoxicatingly ugly. I bet Malkin fights to keep him on the team just so he has someone to look normal beside.

  123. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    JohnnyRocket:
    LT, do you have a link to the Pronman list? I’ve been sick in bed for days, and have read everything on the interwebs. Would love to peruse that list.

    It’s paywalled by ESPN.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/10287712/nhl-updated-top-50-drafted-prospects-2013-14

  124. Lowetide says:

    JohnnyRocket:
    LT, do you have a link to the Pronman list? I’ve been sick in bed for days, and have read everything on the interwebs. Would love to peruse that list.

    It’s behind a paywall, but

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/10287712/nhl-updated-top-50-drafted-prospects-2013-14

  125. stevezie says:

    I was wrong, Sutter has always had a tough Zone start. Here’s Zona praising him: http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/4/14/2948313/nhl-tough-minutes-forwards

    This is interesting- we’ve seen offence dry up before, but I don’t recall seeing a guy’s defence dry up. What is happening to Sutter in Pittsburgh? This is a perfect example of stats not telling the whole tale, I need eyes.

    Bag of Pucks: I could absolutely see Ed Snider biting on an Ekblad for Laughton/Couturier deal, and that’s precisely the kind of ‘bold move’ MacT needs to make at this time.

    Maybe I am thinking like a homer, but that sounds realistic. They might make us wait until the end of the year though. I would push for now.

    EDIT They would definitely wait until the end of the year. Oh well, I’d still do it.

  126. WeirsBeard says:

    Lowetide: The things about Gagner that make him valuable (passing, creativity) are duplicated in the lineup manyfold. That doesn’t mean he’ll fail in his new town, and that’s the danger. I don’t think MacT gets full value, and that’s fine, but he said that Gagner would go for a piece of the future that will be around for the winning.

    I think he needs to hold himself to that.

    Agreed.

    I think MacT has a lot of memories of being a coach without the weapons and can’t believe he would want Eakins to have to do the same. Giving away NHL players doesn’t make sense if you want to win.

    Can’t wait for a club 12 deep up front and 6 deep on D.

  127. JohnnyRocket says:

    stevezie,

    I’m not a huge fan of Sutter’s, and yet I could convince myself that Gagner and our 3rd for Sutter and Matta would be a win. Or Gagner for Sutter and Depres straight up. We’d be giving up best player, but the Sutter’s have always been tenacious, useful players, and Gord knows, we could use some of those. I think 3(+?) years of Sutter might be more of what we need than 2 years of Gagner. If there was a sweetener added.

  128. JohnnyRocket says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks!

  129. Lowetide says:

    Jon K: LT, what in your mind distinguishes Draisaitl as being a good fit for the team compared to Sam Bennett? I do notice that Bennett is only listed as 6′ and 181 lbs. Part of the criticisms of Draisaitl to date have been competitiveness and physical play, I thought? He’s got 18 and 22 PIMs last two seasons, compared to 80 or so for Bennett, for whatever that’s worth.

    What I’ve read on him is he’s outstanding at protecting the puck, passing the puck and using his linemates creatively. I don’t know that he imposes his will, but have been told he’s tough to knock off the puck and can impact the game that way.

  130. cabbiesmacker says:

    JohnnyRocket:
    stevezie,

    I’m not a huge fan of Sutter’s, and yet I could convince myself that Gagner and our 3rd for Sutter and Matta would be a win.

    You get Sutter and Maata for Gagner and a third you should convince yourself that you’re drinking the finest single malt known to man, spooning Scarlett while Sophia spoons you and guaranteed a spot in heaven.

    MacT would be sent to jail.

  131. jb says:

    I feel like we’re aiming too low with some of these deals. What are the chances something like Eberle, Gagner, 1st to Pitts for Malkin + Defensive Depth goes down?

    Crosby gets a triggerman, Gagner’s a suitable 2C behind Crosby, and the first get’s the deal done.

    Malkin
    Nuge
    Gordon

    A man can dream can’t he?

  132. Lowetide says:

    jb:
    I feel like we’re aiming too low with some of these deals. What are the chances something like Eberle, Gagner, 1st to Pitts for Malkin + Defensive Depth goes down?

    Crosby gets a triggerman, Gagner’s a suitable 2C behind Crosby, and the first get’s the deal done.

    Malkin
    Nuge
    Gordon

    A man can dream can’t he?

    Malkin? No.

  133. delooper says:

    But Eberle + Gagner might get you a 2nd pairing D-man.

  134. jb says:

    Lowetide,

    No to the overall value? or no to targeting a guy like Malkin?

  135. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    See the future:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=536906&catid=4

    Try to keep your heart palpitations to a minimum.

    Note: the final minute or so some Oiler flack asks him a bunch of questions about the Oil. He’s appropriately non-commital. Seems she asks all the prospects the same group of Oiler questions.

    Wow. He is a very well-spoken young man. Better public speaker than Hemsky. ;)

    If it comes down to Draisaitl or Ekblad, I know my preference, but who do we think MacTavish/MacGregor choose?

  136. Lowetide says:

    “We’ll make as many changes as we can at the deadline”

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/hnic-radio-mactavish-on-turning-oilers-into-contender-1.2496734

    “Failing a miraculous 15-game stretch, our UFA players will be of interest to a number of teams.”

  137. delooper says:

    jb:
    No to the overall value? or no to targeting a guy like Malkin?

    If Pittsburgh’s hand isn’t forced in some way, like a trade request, there’s no way they’d trade a game-breaker like Malkin for “assorted stuff”.

  138. Andy P says:

    Lowetide: Well, he was less of a disaster in previous seasons, but then again he was no screaming hell. I think Horcoff probably covered off a lot more than some of us thought and now we are here. The other thing about Sam is if you keep him, then Hemsky is a goner for sure.

    Who is a better center, Arco as an interim until we find the 2C of our dreams, or Gags?
    Who is the better winger?

    I would have thought Arco and Hemsky, surely?

  139. Lowetide says:

    Andy P: Who is a better center, Arco as an interim until we find the 2C of our dreams, or Gags?
    Who is the better winger?

    I would have thought Arco and Hemsky, surely?

    I think Arcobello is the better plan at center for now, but that’s an area that should be upgraded. Hemsky is definitely better on RW, but if the market is stronger for 83 than 89, then you’re going to have to make a decision because bringing back both makes no sense.

  140. jp says:

    Bryz should have had that.

  141. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like Eakins got them ready to play again.

  142. leadfarmer says:

    jp,

    Yeah the biggest critique about Bryz is he really overreacts to the puck.

  143. jp says:

    That was really nice!!

  144. OilBuzz says:

    It’s gonna be a goal fest

  145. jp says:

    lol. Thought it was actually Gazdic in the top 6 for a second there. But just Eberle filling in for Jones. Phew.

  146. Gerta Rauss says:

    We looked good through the anthems…

    edit…Jultz!!!

    edit2-sorry…a couple minutes behind on the PVR

  147. Lowetide says:

    Marincin-Petry with a couple of nice moments early, and then Justin Schultz a nice play there. I keep wondering if those three (along with Ference) could be 4-5-6-7 next season.

  148. Brackenburied says:

    So Petry has a better save % than Bryz so far in this game.

  149. leadfarmer says:

    leadfarmer,

    Thank you #80 for reinforcing my point.

  150. VanOil says:

    You have to sit Bryz

  151. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    We can hope-I think they’ll be 2-3-4-5 with Nurse #6

  152. Derek says:

    Well it looks like Devan and Ilya are going to sort out our #2 center problem for next season.

  153. jake70 says:

    On that 2nd goal against, Yak made a bad pass attempt to Eberle into traffic, play goes the other way and in the net.

  154. RexLibris says:

    Well. Just checked TSN to see the score, thinking maybe I’m being presumptuous to think there’d be anything significant after only 30 minutes.

    3-1 Stars.

    Oh. So it’ll be THAT kind of game, will it?

  155. linkfromhyrule says:

    why are we the best cure for a losing streak.. :/

  156. spoiler says:

    We need more Gordie Howe Yaktrickin’.

  157. jp says:

    lol. Is there some history between Yakupov and Gonchar? Wouldn’t give the kid an autograph when he was 11 or something?

  158. leadfarmer says:

    Yak is finishing his checks. Hopefully some of the others will follow

  159. RexLibris says:

    Jagr passes Messier on the goals list.

    He was a FA winger I had hoped the Oilers would sign to provide some veteran guidance.

    Glad to see him still rolling along.

    When he and Teemu retire this league just isn’t going to be the same.

  160. jp says:

    I feel like the Oilers should have had a couple of PPs by now.

  161. jp says:

    This has been kind of a fun game to watch aside if you ignore the Dallas goals. Wide open, good pace. Pretty much the opposite of what Eakins and MacT want to see I’m sure.

  162. jp says:

    RexLibris:
    Jagr passes Messier on the goals list.

    He was a FA winger I had hoped the Oilers would sign to provide some veteran guidance.

    Glad to see him still rolling along.

    When he and Teemu retire this league just isn’t going to be the same.

    Good to see for sure, and agree it would have been nice to add him. But wouldn’t that have been, like, 11 RWs or something?

  163. Young Oil says:

    jp:
    I feel like the Oilers should have had a couple of PPs by now.

    Agreed. Sometimes it’s hard to tell if we just get pushed over too easily, or the refs just aren’t calling anything on us. It has been happening more and more over the past 10 games or so, where there are 3 or 4 questionable non-calls in a period. Am I the only one noticing that?

  164. linkfromhyrule says:

    the only thing more painful than 11 years of sportsnet, is 11 years of mark spector, nick kypreos, and that other guy who doesn’t say much. It’s sad to say Gene’s puns have the most depth in these broadcasts..

  165. linkfromhyrule says:

    Young Oil: Agreed. Sometimes it’s hard to tell if we just get pushed over too easily, or the refs just aren’t calling anything on us. It has been happening more and more over the past 10 games or so, where there are 3 or 4 questionable non-calls in a period. Am I the only one noticing that?

    nope definitely not. Gagner getting shoved headfirst into the boards comes to mind

  166. VanOil says:

    Moog quoting MacT that the Oilers are happy with Bryz. I am sure the conversation happened before that period.

  167. jake70 says:

    Nice to see Gagner and Hemsky will fetch lots if traded. Uggh.

  168. Derek says:

    I imagine that beer tastes like shit because its namesake is a real asshole.

  169. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=441211

    Ducks not moving Hiller

  170. stevezie says:

    Young Oil,

    There are a lot of conspiracy theories floating around here in re: Us specifically, and Canadian teams in general. They are being floated by some people I respect, but I can’t help but ask, aren’t there stats on these things?
    I know every team will take penalties at a different rate, but over the course of a season shouldn’t they draw them about the same? If your contention is that Canadian teams (or the Oil specifically) get screwed by the refs this should be a really, really easy thing to demonstrate.

    Well, get to it.

  171. Lowetide says:

    I may have picked the wrong day to defend Gagner. Hoo boy.

  172. Gerta Rauss says:

    Was that Gagner also in photo..?

  173. Derek says:

    Lowetide:
    I may have picked the wrong day to defend Gagner. Hoo boy.

    Also pictured

    Hah! Or also in photo if you please.

  174. Gerta Rauss says:

    Cruel and unusual punishment.

  175. hunter1909 says:

    RexLibris: Well. Just checked TSN to see the score, thinking maybe I’m being presumptuous to think there’d be anything significant after only 30 minutes.

    Me too. Now wondering what else there is do to around here.

    Oilers’ running the finest perennial “Panzer” program in the NHL.

  176. hunter1909 says:

    Isn’t that Reggie Kray sitting behind Dallas Eakins?

  177. Derek says:

    The Stars are actually a decent possession team battling some tough luck this season. Edmonton sure would look better if they played some defense or made a save or two though.

  178. book¡je says:

    stevezie,

    Don’t bother – refs are not paid enough to maintain a massive conspiracy. One would break and write a book.

  179. jp says:

    Derek: Also pictured

    Hah! Or also in photo if you please.

    He should just stay out of the photos entirely.

  180. hags9k says:

    Gags is running out of blown coverages. I’m a fan but he can’t keep giving away these free looks.

    Netflix time. Sigh. The worst part is how I know we will just go quietly the rest of the game.

  181. VanOil says:

    I believe the game plan tonight from Eakins was to jump on them early so they would be sitting on the bench thinking oh boy not again.

    oh boy not again seems to be a fickle mistress more likely to turn on the Oil as not.

  182. jake70 says:

    An unpressured Petry was trying to pass it to a tied up RNH. Sigh.

  183. book¡je says:

    leadfarmer:
    jp,

    Yeah the biggest critique about Bryz is he really overreacts to the puck.

    He needs to be more of a puck blocker.

  184. hunter1909 says:

    If they score on the pp I’ll keep watching.

  185. RexLibris says:

    Okay, time for an impromptu Lowetide poll question.

    What do I do with the rest of this evening?

    A. watch the remainder of the Dallas/Edmonton game

    of

    B. Pull out the Atari 2600 and re-live the good times as best I can

    Votes may be tallied and the final result will be announced if I ever get around to it.

  186. G Money says:

    book¡je:
    stevezie,

    Don’t bother – refs are not paid enough to maintain a massive conspiracy. One would break and write a book.

    I’m one of the conspiracy pushers. The “thousands of people staying perfectly silent for decades” is the biggest weakness of every conspiracy. I’ve explained a few times how this reffing bias could *easily* be created and managed and yet not have the conspiracy go beyond Bettman and his lieutenant.

  187. Lowetide says:

    Marincin is a really nice hockey player.

  188. hunter1909 says:

    4-2 lol. I need another excuse to stop watching.

  189. G Money says:

    jake70:
    An unpressured Petry was trying to pass it to a tied up RNH.Sigh.

    I believe Petry was drunk for the Chicago game, and now it appears he is hung over…

  190. book¡je says:

    RexLibris,

    Intellivision.

  191. Ben says:

    So what on earth does J. Schultz’s next contract look like?

  192. hunter1909 says:

    Ok. If oilers score 1 more goal and put the game within 1 goal I’ll keep watching past the 2nd. Otherwise goodnight.

  193. hunter1909 says:

    G Money: I believe Petry was drunk for the Chicago game, and now it appears he is hung over…

    That’s me.

  194. G Money says:

    hunter1909,

    Corrected:

    I believe Petry and hunter1909 were drunk for the Chicago game, and now it appears they are hung over…

  195. Derek says:

    What does that guy with the baby say on that Remax commercial? It bottles my mind every time.

  196. RexLibris says:

    book¡je,

    Not an option.

    2600 I have. Berzerk, Asteroids, Pac Man, Ms. Pac Man, Donkey Kong, Combat, Missile Command.

    On the bright side, Flames are tied with Nashville, Buffalo is leading in the 3rd and the Panthers won.

  197. RexLibris says:

    Ben,

    Probably a bridge, two year deal. Between $3 and $4 million, because the Oilers like his poise.

  198. art vandelay says:

    I’m not a huge fan of Sutter’s, and yet I could convince myself that Gagner and our 3rd for Sutter and Matta would be a win.

    Ideas like that come along only once – maybe twice – in a lifetime.

    /just trying to stay positive ….

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