OILERS AT WILD, G50 13-14

The Edmonton Oilers began the process of making over their roster for the 2014-15 season yesterday, adding two players who should be regulars next season for the team. Ben Scrivens is the do-over on the deadline deal for Ben Bishop (that never happened), and Matt Hendricks is a player rumored to be on the Oilers shopping list last spring. So, they’ve added two pieces to the depth chart we talked about 24 hours ago.

PROJECTED 2014-15 LINEUP (13 of 23)

  • G: Ben Scrivens
  • D: Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, Andrew Ference, Justin Schultz
  • C: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Boyd Gordon, Matt Hendricks
  • L: Taylor Hall, David Perron, Luke Gazdic
  • R: Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov

I also said this yesterday:  Craig MacTavish is going to blow this thing up, or at least as much as he can in the modern era. A few conclusions we can draw:

  1. Dallas Eakins likes truculence.
  2. Dallas Eakins likes former Marlies.
  3. Craig MacTavish’s vision may have some elements of possession in them, but the Oilers version of possession may have elements of the Kings/Bruins in it. Dump and chase, forecheck, that kind of thing.
  4. The Oilers are going to spend most of their bullets “up the middle” this summer, as they should.
  5. We should expect them to pursue free agents like Joni Pitkanen, Kyle Quincey and Matt Niskanen.
  6. There’s a chance Darnell Nurse makes this team in the fall.
  7. I think the Oilers may well be interested in Cam Ward. The rumor cam from Darren Dreger, and tsn was right about Ference, Clarkson and Hendricks last spring and summer. If they do plan to trade for Ward, and Eberle is the ask, there must be something else coming back because that’s not close to level in my opinion. I know there are Oiler fans who don’t hold Eberle at a high value (mostly due to contract), but I imagine the reaction would be universal and extremely negative if such a trade were struck between the two teams. Perhaps something could be worked around Ward and Justin Faulk?

jenny scrivens

One of the funnier parts of the Scrivens deal is his wife, who spent 3 years in Toronto and 4 in NY state before going home to Los Angeles and the warm weather. The tweet above shows that she’s a good sport and supportive, but it may also be a good idea for the Oilers to sign her husband before the trade deadline.

STANDINGS

standings

Buffalo is three points behind with three games behind, and they are playing much better under Ted Nolan. The Oilers could be in the basement by the weekend. I’m pleased with the Scrivens addition, and am hopeful Hendricks can help with the penalty kill, but the Oilers are in a bad way and will likely be sending away players for picks and prospects from now to the deadline.

First overall is something we should discuss.

WILD THINGS

  •  Minnesota has beaten Edmonton 41 times, the most W’s against any team the Wild has faced since expansion.
  • Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, Josh Harding and Jared Spurgeon are out.
  • This info and more are here, from excellent reporter Mike Russo.

adams2

HEMSKY’S INJURY

Matty has an article up this morning, and there’s a worry over 83′s foot. Gazdic’s shot hit him flush and the swelling is apparently pretty bad, we should know more by Saturday in Winnipeg. Matty also mentions the possibility of signing Hemsky, which we have discussed many times in the past. A wonderful result, if it comes to pass.

OILERS REMAINING PICKS

This site is brilliant for tracking draft picks and where they landed. Currently, Edmonton’s selections are:

  • 2nd overall
  • 116th overall (Mike Brown)
  • 122nd overall
  • 151st overall (Omark)
  • 152nd overall
  • 182nd overall

The deadline deals should add a few picks in the 40-100 range, I also think it’s possible the Oilers trade down a couple of spots and add a player or a pick. One thing in this area:  Aaron Ekblad didn’t skate like a Dallas Eakins defenseman last night, I didn’t notice that at the WJ’s but against the other CHL kids I thought he was average. I know, not a scout, saw him bad, etc. Still, that’s the first down arrow I’ve seen so thought I’d mention.

Saw him good? Lots of players posted impressive games, Sam Reinhart did a lot to help himself and I think Draisaitl looked good too.

kelly

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show today, trades will do that to you. We’ll talk Oilers, NFL and more!

  • James Mirtle, Globe and Mail. We’ll talk about Ben Scrivens and the Eakins mafia growing in Oiler Nation.
  • Emilie Wiener from the legendary Hockey Wilderness. We’ll talk about the good old days when Edmonton and Minnesota played each other 40 times a year and Jacques Lemaire ruined fun. We’ll also talk about the impact of the Parise/Koivu injuries.
  • Jacob Dearlove will talk Denver Broncos as we get nearer the AFC championship game.
  • Andrea Carroll Papirny, The Brain Care Center. We’ll talk about brain injuries and the importance of making certain you’re properly protected before hitting the slopes/field/ice. Andrea will also tell us about a major event in Jasper this January in support of the cause.

We also have some other guests being lined up, so things are fluid this morning. @Lowetide_ on twitter and 10-1260 via text. Hope you tune in!

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399 Responses to "OILERS AT WILD, G50 13-14"

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  1. PaperKurtRussell says:

    What kind of balls MacT has!! (that`s from my inner Soprano) In less than a year, he has flushed MPS, Ladi, and now Dubey. I think if Tambi had stayed, all three of those guys would have retired as Oilers. Not sure if I’m crazy about either of our new players, but willing to give them a chance. Seems like we have too many forwards now. Someone will have to go… We already have Smyth playing C, so guys like Jones and Joensuu are on thin ice…

  2. Ben says:

    If Hemmer’s got a cracked bone in his foot…maybe that keeps him out through the deadline…then maybe the only rational option is to re-sign him…so…go fracture!

  3. russ99 says:

    I get the need to teach defense and puck responsibility to the kids, but if we’re moving into the future with a Bruins/Kings copycat team, I may have to turn in my Oilers “dynamic offense” fan card that I’ve had since 1983.

    Even at our most truculent times in the past, we still had lines that played Oilers Hockey.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    Let’s hope they don’t trade for Kadri.

    Let’s really hope.

  5. G Money says:

    Jenny Scrivens is from LA? We’re screwed… would have thought MacT of all people would have learned from the CFP disaster.

  6. daryl says:

    So, they’ve added two pieces to the depth chart we talked about 24 hours months ago

  7. hunter1909 says:

    Ben:
    If Hemmer’s got a cracked bone in his foot…maybe that keeps him out through the deadline…then maybe the only rational option is to re-sign him…so…go fracture!

    “Hemmer” reminds of that 13 year old girl who everyone thinks is a slut in middle school, but of course isn’t anything like that. Except “Hemmer” is talked about on Lowetide like he’s some kind of great hockey star, instead of an injury prone morning glory.

  8. fuzzy muppet says:

    Reinhart looked like the #1 OV pick in that game last Night.

    Ekblad was pretty meh and those feet look too heavy for him to be a franchise D-man at the NHL Level.

    Draisaitl impressed me with his back checking. Lots of little Nuge stick lifts from behind to steal the puck and his size looks really nice.

    The other guy that really impressed me was Golobvin (sp). Oozes skill. Teemu Teravainin like.

    In order, for the Oilers purposes I’d rank them like this: Reinhart, Draisaitl, Ekblad or trade down…

  9. jake70 says:

    Lol, she is from California. Nice MacT. Geez.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2014-01-15/ben-scrivens-trade-jenny-scrivens-twitter-matt-hendricks

    (note – don’t have a clue about this sportingnewsNHL site so…)

    And to Hendricks, we don’t know what the Oilers’ future holds but if you want to win a cup, you aren’t doing it in Nashville in your present contract window.

  10. goldenchild says:

    One of the things that really struck me about MacT’s comment on Hendricks was the line about ” Our pro scouts have had an eye on him for quite some time” Quite some time? Thats the part that really bothers me, your not getting the 27 or 28 year old player making under $1M that your scouts first liked and hes sure as hell not going to be that player at the end of this terrible contract. This whole idea that because you liked a guy in the past is a good reason to get him today is completely batshit crazy. Its like asking Stu for his pre-draft report on a guy with 8 years NHL experience, you wouldnt do that would you?? Oh wait you would??? FML

    On Hemsky god I hope that foot is ok and he can play in Sochi, I dont care if they trade him in fact he probably deserves to be freed but man does this guy deserve some good luck and get to play on that great stage. Hoping for the best, hockey gods please let him be ok.

  11. Caramel Obvious says:

    If the Oilers are drafting high they should absolutely pass on Ekblad.

    1) Defensemen take too long.
    2) Defensemen are less predictable and bust more often.
    3) The scouting report on Ekblad is very blah for a top pick. Solid guy who plays a long time is not what I’m looking for.

    Take one of the centers and move on. Leave him and Nurse in junior next year. Sign veterans. That’s the formula.

  12. Eastern Oil says:

    Sitting at 24 on the active roster (as per the Oilers site) with Larsen and Potter on the IR. I really hope Hemsky’s injury is not a big deal, he deserves and he has earned a chance to play in the Olympics. There is 11 games and 3 odd weeks until the Olympic break. Will the Oilers have to complete a roster move before then? If Hemsky is only out a few games I guess we will see a roster move, or some type of rotation on the 4th line, until the break.

    After that, the trade deadline is March 5, and I assume something will have to give. Who do you send down from the 14 forwards if you do not complete a trade? Or do you keep the rotation going for the rest of the season?

  13. jp says:

    Ben:
    If Hemmer’s got a cracked bone in his foot…maybe that keeps him out through the deadline…then maybe the only rational option is to re-sign him…so…go fracture!

    I thought that too. Poor guy.

    G Money:
    Jenny Scrivens is from LA?We’re screwed… would have thought MacT of all people would have learned from the CFP disaster.

    At least LA and Ana don’t need goalies!!

  14. johnnyshaka says:

    LT, is Gagner as good as gone if he’s not on your projected roster?

  15. icecastles says:

    I think the Oilers may well be interested in Cam Ward

    I am interested in prison documentaries. Like learning about them from afar, don’t want to be in or close to one. I hope to Gord the Oilers are interested in Ward the same way. He’s been steadily declining for four years straight.

  16. jp says:

    icecastles: I am interested in prison documentaries. Like learning about them from afar, don’t want to be in or close to one. I hope to Gord the Oilers are interested in Ward the same way. He’s been steadily declining for four years straight.

    But those 06 scouting reports are GLOWING.

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Craig MacTavish’s vision may have some elements of possession in them, but the Oilers version of possession may have elements of the Kings/Bruins in it. Dump and chase, forecheck, that kind of thing.”

    The other day you were spitballing that maybe this* was an attempt to fool the pitcher, i.e., add a change-up to the repertoire. This is the sunny interpretation.

    The gloomy one is that since the Kassian/Gagner affair, MacT has thrown a lot of things out the window. One might be his and Eakins idea that “you dance with the girl you took to the prom”, i.e., you build the team around its current strengths (speed, skill, possession, zone entries, etc).

    If MacT/Eakins are going to try and mold this team into something else with a new playing style and some bottom of the lake roster adjustments… we are in trouble.

    *I mean MacT’s conversation with Staples about getting Hall to dump it in once in a while.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I think the Oilers may well be interested in Cam Ward. ”

    What all the goalie moves look like to me is this: MacT wants a league defined “number 1″ (i.e., someone who has a “reputation”), who is locked in for a number of years… cost in terms of trade assets and cap space is no obstacle.

    He wants his security blanket. He wants to get his Quick (he sees him as long term solution) and forget about the whole thing.

    This is his take away from the anxiety induced beginning of the year.

    BUT… this is crazy and doomed to fail. There are no security blanket goalies in this league. The position doesn’t offer that kind of stability.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Matty also mentions the possibility of signing Hemsky, which we have discussed many times in the past. A wonderful result, if it comes to pass.”

    That would be hilarious if MacT can’t trade Hemsky because he is injured, so he trades Gagner and signs Hemsky as a backup plan.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “I think the Oilers may well be interested in Cam Ward. ”

    What all the goalie moves look like to me is this: MacT wants a league defined “number 1″ (i.e., someone who has a “reputation”), who is locked in for a number of years… cost in terms of trade assets and cap space is no obstacle.

    He wants his security blanket. He wants to get his Quick (he sees him as long term solution) and forget about the whole thing.

    This is his take away from the anxiety induced beginning of the year.

    BUT… this is crazy and doomed to fail. There are no security blanket goalies in this league. The position doesn’t offer that kind of stability.

    Modern Roloson. Makes sense

  21. Showerhead says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “I think the Oilers may well be interested in Cam Ward. ”

    What all the goalie moves look like to me is this: MacT wants a league defined “number 1″ (i.e., someone who has a “reputation”), who is locked in for a number of years… cost in terms of trade assets and cap space is no obstacle.

    He wants his security blanket. He wants to get his Quick (he sees him as long term solution) and forget about the whole thing.

    This is his take away from the anxiety induced beginning of the year.

    BUT… this is crazy and doomed to fail. There are no security blanket goalies in this league. The position doesn’t offer that kind of stability.

    Completely agree with this take. I hope to hell that Cam Ward isn’t on MacTavish’s radar – it’s been 7 and a half painful years since he stopped Fernando Pisani sure game-7-tying-goal at the far post. I would hope that MacT has noticed that Ward has gotten a tiiiny bit worse since that series.

    Honestly, the ideal situation is Scrivens plays somewhere between his .931 in LA and his .917 career average and then they sign him. Even .917 would be in the realm of average, which is not only a huge upgrade in Edmonton but realistically all they should need if they ever figure out the rest of their roster.

  22. Woodguy says:

    goldenchild:
    One of the things that really struck me about MacT’s comment on Hendricks was the line about ” Our pro scouts have had an eye on him for quite some time” Quite some time? Thats the part that really bothers me, your not getting the 27 or 28 year old player making under $1M that your scouts first liked and hes sure as hell not going to be that player at the end of this terrible contract.This whole idea that because you liked a guy in the past is a good reason to get him today is completely batshit crazy.Its like asking Stu for his pre-draft report on a guy with 8 years NHL experience, you wouldnt do that would you?? Oh wait you would??? FML

    On Hemsky god I hope that foot is ok and he can play in Sochi, I dont care if they trade him in fact he probably deserves to be freed but man does this guy deserve some good luck and get to play on that great stage.Hoping for the best, hockey gods please let him be ok.

    That’s my fear with Hendricks as well.

    By all reports he was a pretty good 4C in WAS 2 years ago, but the NAS bloggers I read viewed him as not good this year, and a boat anchor of a contract.

    The NHL runs on reputation, so what you did 2 years ago counts as much as what you did yesterday.

    When looking at a 32 year old physical forward, you better know exactly how he played yesterday.

    Also,

    A lot of the verbal around Hendricks was about mature leadership and work ethic.

    I can honestly agree that those are two things that the Oilers lack, so it might help.

    I was hoping they would try to emulate 2 time Cup champs CHI and make a 4th line out of quality kids who want to play up the line up and don’t get killed in their own end.

    Hendricks was getting the 2nd lowest OZ starts on NAS (only Gaustad had it tougher). Hopefully his play hasn’t fallen off as much as the numbers suggest.

    In WAS Brower, Ward and Beagle got the shitty Ozone starts, so that might explain some of the drop in his CF% from 47.6% with WAS to 41.6% with NSH.

    His most common line mates on WSH were Beagle, Ovechkin and Ribero and on NSH they were Gaustad, Clune and Nystrom, so that explains a lot.

    The Oilers will deploy him more like NSH did than how WAS did.

    Also,

    Lines on the Oilers mobile app were:

    4-93-89
    64-26-14
    94-27-57
    20-23(Hendricks)-28

    21-19
    77-2
    85-15

    Brzy starts.

    If they are moving 85 down to play with 15 I hope that its in hope to stop the bleeding with 15 and make him more tradeable.

    Its sad that a guy 11 games into his NHL career can do that for a guy who is 900 games in, but its true.

  23. Woodguy says:

    As for the Ward rumours, Ward had a NTC.

    I hear that EDM is somewhere near 30th on the places he would waive it to go to.

    That might change if Rutherford turns up the heat on him and says he’ll waive him if he doesn’t, but you never know.

  24. Lowetide says:

    johnnyshaka:
    LT, is Gagner as good as gone if he’s not on your projected roster?

    I think he is, yes.

  25. Showerhead says:

    Lowetide: I think he is, yes.

    I can’t shake the feeling he ends up in Toronto. Nazem Kadri seems like an almost identical player in terms of offense, size, age, and wildly fluctuating shooting %. I could see both teams and players valuing a swap – Kadri played with Hall and Eberle at the WJC (which I remember loathing at the time) and Gagner grew up in Southern Ontario.

    My preferred Gagner trade involves a 20-something top-4 defenseman, but I don’t know how you get that based on Sam’s current season.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: One thing in this area:  Aaron Ekblad didn’t skate like a Dallas Eakins defenseman last night, I didn’t notice that at the WJ’s but against the other CHL kids I thought he was average. I know, not a scout, saw him bad, etc. Still, that’s the first down arrow I’ve seen so thought I’d mention.

    Staples saw him (and his skating) good:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/01/16/is-nail-yakupovs-game-at-last-starting-to-make-sense/

    Aaron Ekblad impresses with his large size and heavy shot, but also with his puck moving and solid skating. He thinks the game well, constantly moving on the ice to find the best position to either defend or attack. He makes solid decisions with the puck. He’s that rare d-man who would be a solid pick at the very top of the draft, it seems to me. He’s NHL-ready.

  27. speeds says:

    “not close to level in my opinion” LT?

    I wouldn’t even claim Ward on waivers, never mind trade Eberle for him.

  28. denny33 says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    If the Oilers are drafting high they should absolutely pass on Ekblad.
    1) Defensemen take too long.
    2) Defensemen are less predictable and bust more often.
    3) The scouting report on Ekblad is very blah for a top pick. Solid guy who plays a long time is not what I’m looking for.
    Take one of the centers and move on. Leave him and Nurse in junior next year. Sign veterans. That’s the formula.
    ****************************************************************************
    If the Oilers are drafting high?

    If you don’t draft stud d-men – how exactly are the Oilers going to obtain one?

    I believe they need 3 top d-men – since Justin Schultz can’t actually play defence. Will concede
    J Petry as a #4.

    Agreed – they are less predictable at draft time..no question.

    Nobody is letting stud defenceman hit the UFA market.

    Nobody is trading a stud d-men in their prime – if you try to trade for one the price will
    be MONUMENTAL.

    If you don’t want to draft them – need someone to explain how the Oilers are going to fill 3 top D-positions. ( Don’t mention Klefbom because he looked dicey against teens in the pre-season and now is struggling in the AHL ) Musil…wasslow in the WHL.

    Again, don’t get me wrong I would have no problem drafting the German centre or Bennet….we need a big C.

    Just need someone to carefully explain how the Oilers obtain 3 – Legitimate – NHL Defenceman.

  29. TheOtherJohn says:

    Do not disagree with your Bos/LAK theory but if MacT has decided to have his team play Boston/LAK hockey all he is missing is just about everything. The legitimate talent he has is not capable of playing that kind of hockey and both of those teams have functional (and inexpensive) size in its bottom 6. Outside of Gordon and Hemsky we have no one capable of filling those roles.

    Would be quite funny if Mrs Scrivens says in April……. Ben is going UFA because we had both forgotten just how cold Edm winters could be.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    If the Oilers are drafting high they should absolutely pass on Ekblad.

    1) Defensemen take too long.
    2) Defensemen are less predictable and bust more often.
    3) The scouting report on Ekblad is very blah for a top pick.Solid guy who plays a long time is not what I’m looking for.

    Take one of the centers and move on.Leave him and Nurse in junior next year.Sign veterans.That’s the formula.

    The history of the NHL draft is littered with Dmen who simply out muscled everyone in the CHL and were very good because of it. Often they went on to be average to decent NHLers when that advantage disappeared in the NHL.

    Ekblad has reportedly “great hockey sense” which helps, but slow feet scares the hell out of me.

  31. FastOil says:

    Is it just me, or does it strike anyone else that the Oilers’ obsessiveness about certain players seems lazy? Like scouting and keeping a current book on the league’s players is too hard or time consuming or something?

    MacT should be looking for players about to turn the corner, not players that have already turned it twice, the second time the wrong way.

    Well, one team got value I suppose. Will I see the day again when it’s the Oilers?

  32. TheOtherJohn says:

    speeds:
    “not close to level in my opinion” LT?

    I wouldn’t even claim Ward on waivers,never mind trade Eberle for him.

    Hey Speeds……great to see your post! hope all is good

  33. speeds says:

    speeds:
    “not close to level in my opinion” LT?

    I wouldn’t even claim Ward on waivers,never mind trade Eberle for him.

    I just looked on capgeek, and I’m going to soften my stance on Ward a bit. I thought he had 4 years beyond this season left on his contract, he only has 2 at 6.3M.

    I certainly would not trade anything of significant value for him, and would prefer EDM to look elsewhere for a cheaper/better option, but his contract isn’t as bad (long) as I thought from memory.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Staples saw him (and his skating) good:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/01/16/is-nail-yakupovs-game-at-last-starting-to-make-sense/

    David Staples also made the argument last year that the Oilers should trade one of the core players for Oleksiak because he was going to be dominate in the NHL.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/07/09/how-tough-will-it-be-for-the-edmonton-oilers-to-acquire-a-top-nhl-defenceman/

    Oleksiak failed to make the Stars again this year.

    He might be a good NHL Dman one day, but today is not that day.

  35. denny33 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Quick interjection – just caught your post from last night on Oiler management reasoning on the Hendricks deal and it was outstanding.

  36. Showerhead says:

    Scrivens gets the start tonight, according to the Twitter.

  37. Woodguy says:

    Scrivens starts as per Matty

  38. icecastles says:

    FastOil: MacT should be looking for players about to turn the corner

    I don’t know, I’d say Belanger and Whitney were two guys “about to turn the corner” when we acquired them. To bad the corner was down a darkened alley.

  39. Showerhead says:

    FastOil:
    Is it just me, or does it strike anyone else that the Oilers’ obsessiveness about certain players seems lazy? Like scouting and keeping a current book on the league’s players is too hard or time consuming or something?

    MacT should be looking for players about to turn the corner, not players that have already turned it twice, the second time the wrong way.

    Well, one team got value I suppose. Will I see the day again when it’s the Oilers?

    Kind of agree with you about the lazy bit. Edmonton’s pro scouts seem to just love becoming fixated on certain players and staying fixated on them long past their prime.

    I had really thought they turned a corner this summer with the Perron trade: “our analytics guys loved him” was music to my ears and, after seeing his playing style, David Perron is a perfect fit for the Oilers. Gordon has been very good too… and then the Hendricks trade makes me think it’s back to the same old crap.

    In fairness: I don’t think it was a good trade, but I don’t think it was an AWFUL trade. It seems like a bad but not overly significant gamble… the only problem is you develop a past, as LT likes to say, and Edmonton’s pro scouting history doesn’t seem very good.

  40. justDOit says:

    From the game preview on oilers.nhl.com:

    “That was my team growing up … it’s going to be fun to throw on that jersey and play for that logo,” Scrivens said.

    Well he’s saying the right things. Good luck Benny. If he doesn’t sign with the Oilers, this will at least be a good study in how team effects might impact goalie stats.

  41. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: If they are moving 85 down to play with 15 I hope that its in hope to stop the bleeding with 15 and make him more tradeable.
    Its sad that a guy 11 games into his NHL career can do that for a guy who is 900 games in, but its true.

    That’s a dangerous pair. I really hope they don’t “see 85 bad” because of it. At any rate, you’re right we need to see 15 in his Sunday’s best to try and move him

    the 77-2 pairing should be good. We can have another look at 77 and see if his play has truly fallen off, or what.

  42. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Showerhead: I can’t shake the feeling he ends up in Toronto. Nazem Kadri seems like an almost identical player in terms of offense, size, age, and wildly fluctuating shooting %. I could see both teams and players valuing a swap – Kadri played with Hall and Eberle at the WJC (which I remember loathing at the time) and Gagner grew up in Southern Ontario.

    My preferred Gagner trade involves a 20-something top-4 defenseman, but I don’t know how you get that based on Sam’s current season.

    Oddly, both are former Knights too.

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: The history of the NHL draft is littered with Dmen who simply out muscled everyone in the CHL and were very good because of it.Often they went on to be average to decent NHLers when that advantage disappeared in the NHL.

    Ekblad has reportedly “great hockey sense” which helps, but slow feet scares the hell out of me.

    Not all of them even get to “average NHLer”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHkn-jjHEog

  44. Caramel Obvious says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “I think the Oilers may well be interested in Cam Ward. ”

    What all the goalie moves look like to me is this: MacT wants a league defined “number 1″ (i.e., someone who has a “reputation”), who is locked in for a number of years… cost in terms of trade assets and cap space is no obstacle.

    He wants his security blanket. He wants to get his Quick (he sees him as long term solution) and forget about the whole thing.

    This is his take away from the anxiety induced beginning of the year.

    BUT… this is crazy and doomed to fail. There are no security blanket goalies in this league. The position doesn’t offer that kind of stability.

    See this is the kind of thing we should worry about. Trading for Hendricks doesn’t kill a franchise. Trading Eberle for Ward or even Quick does.

    Where I disagree is that I think the trade for Scrivens et al. makes this kind of catastrophic mistake less likely. We need to see the whole board.

    Woodguy: David Staples also made the argument last year that the Oilers should trade one of the core players for Oleksiak because he was going to be dominate in the NHL.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/07/09/how-tough-will-it-be-for-the-edmonton-oilers-to-acquire-a-top-nhl-defenceman/

    Oleksiak failed to make the Stars again this year.

    He might be a good NHL Dman one day, but today is not that day.

    I was just thinking this exact thing watching Oleksiak not play for the Stars the other night. Staples opinion on hockey (or arenas or education) has negative value. He has what Cardinal Newman calls “viewiness.” He has a point of view on everything and this point of view might even be informed but because he has never been taught how to think, his views end up as incoherent expressions of his own personal sentiments and feelings.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Speeds and Showerhead in the same thread.

    Good omens.

    Perhaps the Oilers win tonight?

    MIN has fallen off the face of the earth corsi wise after being a league leader for the first 25 games or so.

    Missing Koivu, Parise and Spurgeon. That’s a ton to be missing, but they still have a lot and that doesn’t explain everything.

    Oilers have the 29th best road Fen with an abysmal 42.3%

    MIN has 16th best home Fen with 51.2% (was top 5)

    Both are trending down in a big way.

    If this continues for MIN, they’ll slide out of the playoffs.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    For sure. I’m not citing Staples as an authority, per se. Rather as a different POV. On such a limited look, best to get as many reads as possible.

    ps. I’m decidedly not in the draft D in the top 15 camp and I think we all know who I favor. haha.

    denny33,

    Thanks!

    Caramel Obvious: Where I disagree is that I think the trade for Scrivens et al. makes this kind of catastrophic mistake less likely. We need to see the whole board.

    I really have no idea at this point. I hope that is the case… but, it seems pretty clear MacT is really itchy on the position.

  47. Caramel Obvious says:

    On Ekblad, just remember the Adam Larsson pick.

    It’s simply a fact that scouts don’t know which of these guys are going to become stars. And even if they do become stars they don’t know when they’ll become stars.

    A star defensemen in five years does the Oilers no good. And they can’t afford to use roster space to develop one in addition to Nurse and Marincin, let alone Klefbom or anyone else that emerges.

    Take the forward, leave him in junior at least one year, and when he comes up you can hide him on the fourth line if you need to. You can’t hide defensemen.

  48. justDOit says:

    Follow

    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Ales Hemsky has returned to Edmonton for further evaluation on his injured ankle suffered Tuesday night in Dallas.

    This was from a Gadzooks shot, no? I thought he was supposed to protect the talent?

  49. rickithebear says:

    It bothers me to no end that hendricks is defined as a seen him good choice.

    Stats: CF% WTF!

    1.What was his Zone start
    2. Does he turnover the puck
    3. Does he make players get better results.
    4. what type of player is he successful with?

    1. 40% ZS

    2. 3Tk for every 2 GV +50% the last 4 years.

    3. 10-11 WSH 8/13 Players 537/723 min 69%
    11-12 WSH 5/9 players 415/791 min 52%
    12-13 WSH 7/12 players 326/460 min 71%
    13-14 NASH 6/7 players 332/350 min 95%
    so the last 4 years 70% of the players he plays with are better GD with him.

    4.
    The Type
    COL
    Duchene, Tucker, Stastny, Durno, Yelle, Girardi
    WSH
    Laich, Knuble, Peraault, Steckel, Semin, Halpren, Gordon, Ward, Backstrom, Ovechkin, Riberio, Brouwer, Beagle
    NSH Gaustad, Nystrom, Clune, Cullen, G. Bourque, Spaling
    the whole gambit of players

    The only center in the league top 40 in
    FO% top 25
    PKGA top 35,
    ZS top 15
    Hits top 20
    Blocks top 35
    and 81% of the minutes he has played the players get better GD results with him the last 2 years.

    MC79!
    Available all the time.

    81%

    In your Fucking dreams!

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit:
    Follow

    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Ales Hemsky has returned to Edmonton for further evaluation on his injured ankle suffered Tuesday night in Dallas.

    This was from a Gadzooks shot, no? I thought he was supposed to protect the talent?

    would a cardboard cut out break Ales’ ankle?

  51. Ducey says:

    Not sure if this of any worth but yesterday Ricki noted the similarities in boxcars between Hendricks and MacT ($5.25 M x 7) whale, David Clarkson.

    Another comparison:

    Bicknell 35 GP 6g 2a 8 pts -7 12 PIM 48 shots 12.5% shooting
    Hendricks 44 GP 2 2 4 pts -2 54 PIM 53 shots 3.77% shooting

    Bicknell is 4 x $4 million/ yr.

  52. GriffCity says:

    Marincin is no better than Fedun or Hunt. In fact i think both of those guys have shown better than Marincin. Oilers defense is abysmal right now, I would like to see more new faces next season. Sucks that we are stuck with Ference until he’s old and grey, no one is picking up that contract and I think he has a no trade clause too. I would bid farewell to Petry if at all possible, he is not any good, despite what some bloggers may say about the guy. How about a trade to WPG for big Buff and Trouba?

  53. 8p0intgame says:

    A friend and I argued about Cam Ward for quite some time last night.

    He wanted to trade the first round pick and Gagner for Ward.

    I am not opposed to moving either of those pieces but I argued that the Oilers should use the first round pick to acquire a top pairing defence man if they are going to move it; IMO, the Oilers could have the best goaltender in the world and he wouldn’t be able to do jack shit with the current defence in front of him.

    My friend argued that a good goaltender should be able to steal you at least ten to fifteen games a year.

    I stopped arguing after that statement.

    Thank Gord for that no-trade clause.

    LT, would you consider doing a post on how to read those ExtraSkater player cards? They look Japanese to me…

  54. LMHF#1 says:

    You had to throw Joni back into this LT? That would make way too much sense and make me way too happy for this team to do it. He’d be the perfect player for Marincin to learn from (separate the man from the puck, play big but smart, control the play, learn that flip pass).

  55. oilersfan says:

    has anybody else noticed that the Oilers just brought in Kevin McLelland?

  56. LMHF#1 says:

    GriffCity:
    Marincin is no better than Hunt.

    You haven’t been watching games or are Hunt’s mother.

  57. Pouzar says:

    GriffCity,

    WHAT.DA.****?

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey:
    Not sure if this of any worth but yesterday Ricki noted the similarities in boxcars between Hendricks and MacT ($5.25 M x 7) whale, David Clarkson.

    Another comparison:

    Bicknell 35 GP 6g 2a 8 pts -7 12 PIM 48 shots 12.5% shooting
    Hendricks 44 GP 2 2 4 pts -2 54 PIM 53 shots 3.77% shooting

    Bicknell is 4 x $4 million/ yr.

    Bickell is 27. that’s the big difference.

    Clarkson 29. pushing it.

    Here’s a gem:

    http://www.capgeek.com/player/1579

  59. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    You had to throw Joni back into this LT? That would make way too much sense and make me way too happy for this team to do it. He’d be the perfect player for Marincin to learn from (separate the man from the puck, play big but smart, control the play, learn that flip pass).

    I’ve always liked him. He’s missing an entire season but I’d take that chance.

  60. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: I’ve always liked him. He’s missing an entire season but I’d take that chance.

    But doe he love us?

  61. thejonrmcleod says:

    The Caps fans I interact with on Twitter seem to love Hendricks. But I don’t fully trust their opinions.

  62. thejonrmcleod says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I see you finally created a Twitter account.

  63. G Money says:

    speeds: I just looked on capgeek, and I’m going to soften my stance on Ward a bit.I thought he had 4 years beyond this season left on his contract, he only has 2 at 6.3M.

    I certainly would not trade anything of significant value for him, and would prefer EDM to look elsewhere for a cheaper/better option, but his contract isn’t as bad (long) as I thought from memory.

    Yeah, I think the angst on Ward is overdone.

    A brief look at his career looks like this:

    28 gp, .882 / 60, .897 (SC) / 69, .904 / 68, .916 / 47, .916 / 74, .923 / 68, .915

    followed by the last two years

    17, .908 and 19, .895

    So the idea that he’s somehow already on the downside of his career at the age of 29 is not a particularly well supported statement. It would be more accurate to suggest the last two seasons he’s struggled with injuries and rust and had the equivalent of about half a lousy seasons worth of games (36 games at .901).

    He may indeed have turned to shite after 4 really good seasons, but it seems early for that to happen. More likely he’ll find his groove at some point and rebound closer to the heart of his career (.915 or so).

    Getting him for two years won’t be a terrible bet. It all depends on what you give up. Eberle? Ridiculous. A tweener prospect or late round pick? No brainer.

  64. Caramel Obvious says:

    Ducey:
    Not sure if this of any worth but yesterday Ricki noted the similarities in boxcars between Hendricks and MacT ($5.25 M x 7) whale, David Clarkson.

    Another comparison:

    Bicknell 35 GP 6g 2a 8 pts -7 12 PIM 48 shots 12.5% shooting
    Hendricks 44 GP 2 2 4 pts -2 54 PIM 53 shots 3.77% shooting

    Bicknell is 4 x $4 million/ yr.

    Clarkson has some of the best shot differentials on the Leafs while getting the worst zone starts. The contract is bad but Clarkson is a much, much, better player than Hendricks.

  65. FastOil says:

    icecastles: I don’t know, I’d say Belanger and Whitney were two guys “about to turn the corner” when we acquired them. To bad the corner was down a darkened alley.

    They were. They turned, or were about to, the second corner down the slope out of the league I mentioned. I’m suggesting more like the Rangers and McDonagh.

  66. 8p0intgame says:

    GriffCity,

    Ference has a no-movement clause, actually. We are stuck with him on the roster for the foreseeable future. IMHO, the most troubling part of the Hendricks acquisition yesterday was that MacTavish took on another declining player with a bad contract. I am truly worried that overpaying players in their 30s will become MacT’s signature during his time here.

    What are you willing to give up to acquire Byfuglien?

    Yesterday I proposed trading Hemsky to a contender for a late first round pick at the deadline (which seemed improbable last night and nearly impossible now) and then packaging the pick acquired in the Hemsky trade with Gagner and sending them to Winnipeg for Byfuglien.

    Would that be enough? I am not so sure. Byfuglien is HUGE (see: coveted), plays first pairing minutes, and brings offence. Rumour has it, the Oilers offered Eberle and the first round pick for Weber and that wasn’t enough; I’m not saying Byfuglien is as good as Weber (maybe he is – there doesn’t seem to be a big gap in their advanced stats – but I’m still trying to figure out those damn ExtraSkater player cards), but I think the cost of Byfuglien would be about equal to Weber.

  67. icecastles says:

    8p0intgame: Yesterday I proposed trading Hemsky to a contender for a late first round pick at the deadline (which seemed improbable last night and nearly impossible now)

    It was impossible before too. Hemsky, even healthy, is not going to garner a first round pick.

  68. FastOil says:

    Caramel Obvious: See this is the kind of thing we should worry about.Trading for Hendricks doesn’t kill a franchise.Trading Eberle for Ward or even Quick does.

    Trading a starting (if struggling) goalie for a fading plugger for me is in the same territory. Devastating, perhaps not, but that is a loss of value. The history of losing value on the assets (players) is why the team is so poor now.

    I think given a lost season, signing Dubnyk shorter term and gambling on an improvement, and then dealing him would be smarter. Same with Gagner (clause can be waived next year as well) or any hockey player with an NHL history they want to move. It makes sense waiving Dubnyk would be better than taking a lousy contract for a marginal player. Ideally neither happens.

    There is no reason to be rash, it’s not like they’re making a reasonable push for the playoffs. Rash most likely will bring bad things. This team needs to develop a dread of moving backward that doesn’t look like paralysed.

  69. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Yeah, I think the angst on Ward is overdone.

    A brief look at his career looks like this:

    28 gp, .882 / 60, .897 (SC) / 69, .904 / 68, .916 / 47, .916 / 74, .923 / 68, .915

    followed by the last two years

    17, .908 and 19, .895

    So the idea that he’s somehow already on the downside of his career at the age of 29 is not a particularly well supported statement.It would be more accurate to suggest the last two seasons he’s struggled with injuries and rust and had the equivalent of about half a lousy seasons worth of games (36 games at .901).

    He may indeed have turned to shite after 4 really good seasons, but it seems early for that to happen.More likely he’ll find his groove at some point and rebound closer to the heart of his career (.915 or so).

    Getting him for two years won’t be a terrible bet.It all depends on what you give up.Eberle?Ridiculous.A tweener prospect or late round pick?No brainer.

    6.25MM/yr for a goalie who was above leauge average in SV% for one year of their career is beyond bad.

    The Oilers just traded away a guy who is almost the same goalie, but I actually have Doobie above Ward.

    Below average goalie, terrible price tag, and costs you assets to acquire.

    That’s a triple fail.

  70. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy:
    Speeds and Showerhead in the same thread.

    Good omens.

    Perhaps the Oilers win tonight?

    MIN has fallen off the face of the earth corsi wise after being a league leader for the first 25 games or so.

    Missing Koivu, Parise and Spurgeon.That’s a ton to be missing, but they still have a lot and that doesn’t explain everything.

    Oilers have the 29th best road Fen with an abysmal 42.3%

    MIN has 16th best home Fen with 51.2% (was top 5)

    Both are trending down in a big way.

    If this continues for MIN, they’ll slide out of the playoffs.

    What are the odds, hey? It’s fair to say the trades shook me out of hibernation plus I also have tickets to the game in Winnipeg. I don’t know what speeds’ excuse is.

    Thanks for the nod, btw. I lurk most of the time and am consistently impressed by intelligent posters like yourself who are somehow still contributing each and every day through this mess.

  71. Woodguy says:

    icecastles: It was impossible before too. Hemsky, even healthy, is not going to garner a first round pick.

    Rishaug, who is no Hemsky fan, was saying that Hemsky was worth a 1st.

    Depends on the team acquiring him i’d guess.

  72. Pouzar says:

    Showerhead: What are the odds, hey? It’s fair to say the trades shook me out of hibernation plus I also have tickets to the game in Winnipeg. I don’t know what speeds’ excuse is.

    Thanks for the nod, btw. I lurk most of the time and am consistently by intelligent posters like yourself who are somehow still contributing each and every day through this mess.

    See you there. :)

    I’ll be sittin right behind Eakins rockin the Hemsky 83!

  73. G Money says:

    Woodguy: The Oilers just traded away a guy who is almost the same goalie, but I actually have Doobie above Ward.

    Below average goalie, terrible price tag, and costs you assets to acquire.

    The salary and the asset cost I agree with.

    The data do not support you on the rest. Ward has enough history to suggest he is an average goalie; Dubie’s suggest he is average *at best*. Above? No way.

  74. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: 6.25MM/yr for a goalie who was above leauge average in SV% for one year of their career is beyond bad.

    The Oilers just traded away a guy who is almost the same goalie, but I actually have Doobie above Ward.

    Below average goalie, terrible price tag, and costs you assets to acquire.

    That’s a triple fail.

    The scouts have like him since his Red Deer Rebels days though.

  75. icecastles says:

    Woodguy,

    I stand corrected then. I would have expected a 2nd for him, but I’m not sure who else is going to be available for playmaking forwards this deadline. I’d hate to see him go for only a pick though, regardless of position. Picks are gambles. Hemsky is a proven real hockey player. One of our few.

  76. G Money says:

    A quick statistical look at Ben Scrivens, for those interested in such things:

    I posted this yesterday, sv% by shot distance for this season:
    http://i.imgur.com/1cj5wWf.png

    Game by game sv% chart, including rolling and trend line:
    http://i.imgur.com/y1KZvEB.png

    Histogram of game performances, including descriptive statistics:
    http://i.imgur.com/1EEnWxR.png

    There’s only 50 games of data here, so the effective range on this is massive and can’t draw a whole lot in the way of definitive conclusions. We still don’t know if we have the next Lundqvist or the next Corey Crawford.

    But posted for interests sake…

  77. Caramel Obvious says:

    G Money:
    A quick statistical look at Ben Scrivens, for those interested in such things:

    I posted this yesterday, sv% by shot distance:
    http://i.imgur.com/1cj5wWf.png

    Game by game sv% chart, including rolling and trend line:
    http://i.imgur.com/y1KZvEB.png

    Histogram of game performances, including descriptive statistics:
    http://i.imgur.com/1EEnWxR.png

    There’s only 50 games of data here, so the effective range on this is massive and can’t draw a whole lot in the way of definitive conclusions.We still don’t know if we have the next Lundqvist or the next Corey Crawford.

    But posted for interests sake…

    Why ignore AHL data? His numbers in the AHL are good as well. Does anyone know the MLE for save percentage from the AHL?

  78. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Different league + time required.

  79. oilersfan says:

    showerhead do you live in Winnipeg?

    Are the knives out enough for Big Buff that the Oilers could get him for Gagner plus a bit or would the fans there expect quite a bit for him?

    thanks

  80. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I see you finally created a Twitter account.

    Indeed, I figured give you folks a break from my inane chatter :)

    Still getting used to it… not sure I’ve figured it out entirely.

    icecastles: It was impossible before too. Hemsky, even healthy, is not going to garner a first round pick.

    Woodguy: Rishaug, who is no Hemsky fan, was saying that Hemsky was worth a 1st.

    Depends on the team acquiring him i’d guess.

    There was also that article earlier in the year by Garrioch (Sens reporter):

    “The Oilers need help everywhere, however, teams are asking for young players in return. “They want to do something but they overrate their players which means the prices are high,” said a league executive. He should be able to get a top pick for UFA RW Ales Hemsky”

    http://www.ottawasun.com/2013/11/23/phillys-captain-claude-giroux-set-for-sochi-olympics

    I think “top pick” has to mean either a late 1st or very early 2nd.

  81. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: Rishaug, who is no Hemsky fan, was saying that Hemsky was worth a 1st.

    Depends on the team acquiring him i’d guess.

    I don’t know about Rishaug, he doesn’t exactly come across as “dialed in” when it comes to information.

  82. Derek says:

    8p0intgame:
    GriffCity,

    Ference has a no-movement clause, actually. We are stuck with him on the roster for the foreseeable future. IMHO, the most troubling part of the Hendricks acquisition yesterday was that MacTavish took on another declining player with a bad contract. I am truly worried that overpaying players in their 30s will become MacT’s signature during his time here.

    What are you willing to give up to acquire Byfuglien?

    Yesterday I proposed trading Hemsky to a contender for a late first round pick at the deadline (which seemed improbable last night and nearly impossible now) and then packaging the pick acquired in the Hemsky trade with Gagner and sending them to Winnipeg for Byfuglien.

    Would that be enough? I am not so sure. Byfuglien is HUGE (see: coveted), plays first pairing minutes, and brings offence. Rumour has it, the Oilers offered Eberle and the first round pick for Weber and that wasn’t enough; I’m not saying Byfuglien is as good as Weber (maybe he is – there doesn’t seem to be a big gap in their advanced stats – but I’m still trying to figure out those damn ExtraSkater player cards), but I think the cost of Byfuglien would be about equal to Weber.

    One guy is often spoken of as the best defencemen in the game, the other is constantly ripped in the local media (completely unwarranted), and the coach can’t decide whether to play him on the blue line or at forward.

    You think the cost of these two players is going to be the same?

    Trade Petry? Hunt and Fedun as good as Marincin? Eberle for CAM WARD!?!?!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG7LjVCj50Y

  83. JonyPro says:

    Hmmmm I wonder….what if Justin Schultz was made into a forward like Brent Burns? He is clearly lacking on defense but his offense is immense.

  84. Derek says:

    JonyPro:
    Hmmmm I wonder….what if Justin Schultz was made into a forward like Brent Burns? He is clearly lacking on defense but his offense is immense.

    http://static1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120914120351/uncyclopedia/images/b/b5/Exploding-head.gif

  85. JonyPro says:

    Derek,

    Haha why? I was only wondering.

  86. Ducey says:

    JonyPro:
    Hmmmm I wonder….what if Justin Schultz was made into a forward like Brent Burns? He is clearly lacking on defense but his offense is immense.

    He has 89 NHL games on a weak team. He needs to learn to play defense not get screwed up more.

    Get him a decent partner and pair them up for 50 games and then see what happens.

  87. Showerhead says:

    Pouzar: See you there.

    I’ll be sittin right behind Eakins rockin the Hemsky 83!

    Great seats! I’m hoping for 1) a pretty good collection of Oiler fans and 2) a repeat of this game back in 2012.

    Oilersfan: I do live in Winnipeg, and I hear a lot of general disgruntled chatter about Byfuglien. That’s not to say I have any clue about an appropriate trade offer, just that a lot of people like him and a lot of people don’t. My sense is he’s a good player who helps in a big way but fans have a long memory when it comes to giveaways that end in goals. Depending on the cost, I think Edmonton would do well to trade for him!

  88. Derek says:

    JonyPro:
    Derek,

    Haha why? I was only wondering.

    What Ducey said, also playing Justin Schultz at forward would probably make him a winger agreed? The wings are really the only position of strength that Edmonton has while the D is arguably the weakest.

    Schultz is also 188 pounds, so another small(ish) winger for those worried about size.

  89. Pouzar says:

    Showerhead: Great seats! I’m hoping for 1) a pretty good collection of Oiler fans and 2) a repeat of this game back in 2012.

    Oilersfan: I do live in Winnipeg, and I hear a lot of general disgruntled chatter about Byfuglien. That’s not to say I have any clue about an appropriate trade offer, just that a lot of people like him and a lot of people don’t. My sense is he’s a good player who helps in a big way but fans have a long memory when it comes to giveaways that end in goals. Depending on the cost, I think Edmonton would do well to trade for him!

    Interesting that the Oilers is rated as an “A” game by True North.

    Good Luck to us!

  90. russ99 says:

    Derek,

    Justin Schultz’s value is in his puck moving and quarterbacking the play from the back, which would be moot as a winger.

    All similar types of players have a learning curve.

    Besides, Schultz and Eberle are 23, Hall is 22, RNH and Yak are 21, and all of them are within a few inches of height.

    Doesn’t anyone think these guys will fill out when they get older? Size is a now problem, not a future problem.

  91. stevezie says:

    I can’t believe no one has brought up the obvious comparison for Matt Hendricks. A banger of a certain age, who has a reputation for being tough, great on the penalty kill, able to bring a little offence, with leadership qualities? How old was Ethan Moreau when he started to slip? Around 32, non?

    I was defending the trade yesterday because if we get one or two years of productive Hendricks it is worth using Katman’s money to get that advantage. That said, if I were the GM I am not trading for that player on that contract at that age- there is a very real risk you get zero productive years out of him.

  92. Derek says:

    russ99:
    Derek,

    Justin Schultz’s value is in his puck moving and quarterbacking the play from the back, which would be moot as a winger.

    All similar types of players have a learning curve.

    Besides, Schultz and Eberle are 23, Hall is 22, RNH and Yak are 21, and all of them are within a few inches of height.

    Doesn’t anyone think these guys will fill out when they get older? Size is a now problem, not a future problem.

    …..Right. I have no desire to ever see Justin Schultz as a forward and as he fills out with age, I expect his defensive game to mature as well. If you look at him strictly based on games played he’s basically started his sophomore season a few games ago and is playing top pairing on a woefully inept team.

  93. konst16 says:

    I really don’t understand the widespread hatred of the Hendricks trade.

    Haven’t we all been crying out for, among other things:

    - actual NHL players in the bottom 6
    - center depth
    - more consistency, esp in the D zone
    - leadership
    - “truculence”/standing up for each other

    I wouldn’t shit on too many trades that bring all of the above for a player that currently had negative value.

    The reasons consistently raised as to why this is a bad move are:

    - Huge decline in adv. stats #’s. IMO they were over valued last year with the caps, and are likely undervalued so far this year. Either way, we should be comparing them with the Lander’s, Joensuu’s, Acton’s, Jones’ and Smyth’s. Hendricks is an improvement in the bottom 6 anyway you slice it.

    - 3 years after this one @ 1.85 cap hit I get it, its a bit high for a 4th liner, and there is every chance his play will decline sharply over those years such that he is not even a viable 4th liner. However, calling it “a ton of risk” is hyperbole. Assuming he is bad enough to not even play on the Oilers 4th line, best case is he just ends up being another shadow in the bad dream that was this season (how many are we at now?). ie. a compliance buyout this summer. More likely he is dumped for futures a-la Brown/Barbs mid season to combat another teams emergency. Worst case, Katz writes a check, and the oil are penalized ~1mil cap hit (minors/buyout). I don’t see the non-compliance buyout as at all likely though, with the way NHL gms value “history”.

    Even if you view Scrivens and Dubs as a saw off (I don’t, too much baggage here with Dubs), its hard to complain about Hendricks for a 3rd the way I see it.

  94. icecastles says:

    stevezie: great on the penalty kill

    Moreau’s last couple years saw a reduced PK role because he was usually the one in the box. And he was usually heading there from the attacking zone. Fuck I hated “It’s everyone’s fault but mine” thecaptainethanmoreau in his last couple years.

  95. hunter1909 says:

    stevezie: if I were the GM I am not trading for that player on that contract at that age- there is a very real risk you get zero productive years out of him.

    Eager, Hordichuck and Belanger say hello.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Showerhead: What are the odds, hey? It’s fair to say the trades shook me out of hibernation plus I also have tickets to the game in Winnipeg. I don’t know what speeds’ excuse is.

    Thanks for the nod, btw. I lurk most of the time and am consistently impressed by intelligent posters like yourself who are somehow still contributing each and every day through this mess.

    Always good to see you sir.

    There is still a number of posters with good stuff, but the signal to noise ratio has certainly increased.

    LT’s a great writer, and the comments section here (for a significant part) keep me coming back.

    That and I get to air my grievances somewhere they get read. :)

  97. LoDog says:

    stevezie: I can’t believe no one has brought up the obvious comparison for Matt Hendricks. A banger of a certain age, who has a reputation for being tough, great on the penalty kill, able to bring a little offence, with leadership qualities? How old was Ethan Moreau when he started to slip? Around 32, non?I was defending the trade yesterday because if we get one or two years of productive Hendricks it is worth using Katman’s money to get that advantage. That said, if I were the GM I am not trading for that player on that contract at that age- there is a very real risk you get zero productive years out of him.

    Last good season Moreau had he was 34. Became the penalty and whining man at 35. So maybe we get a couple decent years out of Hendricks, who knows. I look forward to seeing someone actually finish his checks tonight though.

  98. Woodguy says:

    book¡je: The scouts have like him since his Red Deer Rebels days though.

    I bet Stu loved him in his draft year.

    What did Yz have to say?

  99. theres oil in virginia says:

    hunter1909: Eager, Hordichuck and Belanger say hello.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGtMwU8wDmc

  100. Bar_Qu says:

    stevezie:
    I can’t believe no one has brought up the obvious comparison for Matt Hendricks. A banger of a certain age, who has a reputation for being tough, great on the penalty kill, able to bring a little offence, with leadership qualities? How old was Ethan Moreau when he started to slip? Around 32, non?

    I was defending the trade yesterday because if we get one or two years of productive Hendricks it is worth using Katman’s money to get that advantage. That said, if I were the GM I am not trading for that player on that contract at that age- there is a very real risk you get zero productive years out of him.

    This was part of the point I was trying (badly) to make yesterday. My extreme disappointment with the move prevented me from communicating it clearly.

    I had meant that the Oilers were better off carrying three goalies or demoting Dubnyk to the minors over making the deal they did for Hendricks. They could always trade Dubnyk for a better return or lose him on waivers (imo, a better option than getting Hendricks). MC79 put up some of his data on his site yesterday showing the likely drop-off in a Hendricks-like player is very likely at this point in his career (the production he has in Nashville may be the start of it). Imagine a Lennart Petrell who is getting slower and less productive signed for 3 more years. In this scenario, it really doesn’t matter how much he is signed for, he is not a good quality player for the Oilers to take on as part of improving their team.

    I understand the mentality which justifies this saying “they can always stow him in the minors or buy him out” but it totally disregards the fact that they traded an NHL-quality player for someone who may or may not be helpful for the team. And on top of that this player uses up salary cap (not much, but he sitll does) and takes a roster spot. A late round pick doesn’t do either of those things.

    I hope I am wrong about Hendricks. I really do. And the guy deserves a pay day after X number of years playing. But it galls me that the Oilers traded a player I like and respected to get someone I don’t think is going to help the team after this year.

  101. stevezie says:

    hunter1909: Eager, Hordichuck and Belanger say hello.

    Nope, Hordichuk and Eager sucked when we got them. I’ll give you Belanger, but that was more of a surprise. He doesn’t wreck his body the way Hendricks and Moreau do.

  102. Bag of Pucks says:

    konst16:
    I really don’t understand the widespread hatred of the Hendricks trade.

    It wouldn’t be the Oilogosphere (is that still a ‘thing?’) without complaining about who’s on the 4th line.

    As near as I can tell, it has something to do with not liking players who A) fight B) dump the puck in C) have long hair & D) don’t play for the league minimum.

    What was really interesting to me was the reaction of the Oilogosphere yesterday compared to the reaction of former pros now working in the broadcast arena. Almost unanimously, the pros praised Hendricks and the versatility, leadership, competitiveness and physicality he’ll add to an Oiler line-up badly in need of all of these attributes.

    Herein lies one of the problems with advanced stats based on the limited data currently available. The contributions from physical play can’t be adequately quantified. Winning teams win battles on the board and in the corners, they clear rebounds and tie up players in the slot, they’re hard on the forecheck and in puck pursuit. Where are the stats that quantify these elements of the game & the players that dominate in these areas?

    If Hendricks, were to fire 3 errant ineffective shots a shift while holding the opposition to one 5 star chance from the slot per shift, Corsi and Shot Differential would love him. Clearly there’s a problem with overvaluing these metrics.

  103. sliderule says:

    I thought that Ekblad showed well,great hockey sense and for a very big man moved well showing good agility and decent speed when it was called for.Kind of reminds me of Lebron James when he came into NBA At age 19 he like Ekblad looked like a 25 year old.

    Reinhart is so much like Nuge except he is supposed to be 186 lbs which is about 15 more than Nuge was when he played in Prospect game.He could end up playing at 200 lbs but if you want a banger it’s not his game.

    Dal Colle showed a great shot and good speed but he was a total non checker in this game.

    Draisatl has good anticipation but his skating isn’t much better if at all than our Yakimov.He is also a total non banger.

    A surprise to me was Scherbak but he will never get in top five.

    The elephant in room is Sam Bennett who apparently has the skill of Reinhart and a mean edge.

    Too bad he couldn’t show it last night.

  104. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: I bet Stu loved him in his draft year.

    What did Yz have to say?

    I know that this is a running joke here, but I can’t remember the origin.

    Was it something to do with Tambellini on Oil change?

  105. 8p0intgame says:

    Derek,

    I don’t appreciate your tone…

    Dustin Byfuglien:
    DOB: 27/03/1985 Age: 28 H: 6’5″ W: 265 lbs. Shoots: Right

    Cap hit: 5.2 million until 2015-16 (Byfuglien will be 31 when his contract expires)

    2013-14: 48 10-27-37 0.771 PPG TOI/60: 25.3 CF%: 51.8% GF%: 40.2%
    On pace for: 82 17-46-63
    2012-13: 43 8-20-28 0.651 PPG TOI/60: 24.1 CF%: 50.3% GF%: 48.6%
    2011-12: 66 12-41-53 0.803 PPG

    Shea Weber:
    DOB: 14/08/1985 Age: 28 H: 6’4″ W: 240 lbs. Shoots: Right

    Cap hit: 7.857,143 million until 2025-26 (Weber will be 41 when his contract expires)

    2013-14: 45 11-19-30 0.667 PPG TOI/60: 26.4 CF%: 47.6% GF%: 39.7%
    On pace for: 76 18-32-50
    2012-13: 48 9-19-28 0.583 PPG TOI/60: 25.5 CF%: 46% GF%: 48.4%
    2011-12: 78 19-30-49 0.628 PPG

    These numbers suggest that Byfuglien and Weber are similar players. Both are big, right-handed defensemen playing top pairing minutes for their respective teams, but Byfuglien brings more offence and has slightly better puck possession numbers. Weber may be the better player, but it isn’t unreasonable to come to the conclusion that Byfuglien would cost as much as Weber in a trade after looking at these numbers, whether he is ripped on by the local media or not.

    Also, in my armchair GM post last night, I wanted to resign Petry and use Marincin as my 7th defence man; I believe I mentioned earlier in this thread that I didn’t want to trade the first round pick and Gagner for Ward, never mind Eberle.

  106. book¡je says:

    Ryan: I know that this is a running joke here, but I can’t remember the origin.

    Was it something to do with Tambellini on Oil change?

    I think it was, but “The scouts were really high on this guy” and “great reputation as a character guy” and various other phrases are regularly thrown out by management when they can’t really say anything about the contribution the player makes on the ice.

  107. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Herein lies one of the problems with advanced stats based on the limited data currently available. The contributions from physical play can’t be adequately quantified. Winning teams win battles on the board and in the corners, they clear rebounds and tie up players in the slot, they’re hard on the forecheck and in puck pursuit. Where are the stats that quantify these elements of the game & the players that dominate in these areas?

    If you win more puck battles, you get more shots

    I hate when people say that someone contribution is “not quantifiable” That’s a cop out.

    If he contributes, it must be to something, or some end, or else its not a contribution.

    Does a guy “give his team a lift with his physical play?”

    If so , they the team would probably get more shots when he plays as opposed to when he doesn’t play. This can be quantified and checked.

    Does a guy win battles? That should show up immediately since it leads to more possession.

    If someone is adding something that can’t be quantified, they why are you sure something is being added?

    Is he good defensively? Should results in less shots and you can quantify it.

    Is he a leader? Does all the little things and shows others how to do the little things? That will show up too.

    Does he try hard, prepare himself like a pro and lead by example? Well if others are following that example, that should show up too in their improved play.

    If anything that a player adds doesn’t show up in the shot attempts data, for or against, I hesitate to say anything is being added.

    Also,

    If Hendricks, were to fire 3 errant ineffective shots a shift while holding the opposition to one 5 star chance from the slot per shift, Corsi and Shot Differential would love him. Clearly there’s a problem with overvaluing these metrics.

    Comments like that show that you haven’t read the back ground work on all this stuff that gets thrown around about shot attempt data.

    That is a ridiculous strawman argument.

    If Hendricks was in the Ozone for 5 shot attempts for every 1 of the opposition, even if the opposition gets a break away from every chance, he’s doing a great job BECAUSE CORSI MEASURES WHO HAS THE PUCK NOT THE CHANCE OF IT GOING IN.

    Shot metrics are possession metrics.

    You need to look at them that way, or else just don’t mention them.

  108. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: I know that this is a running joke here, but I can’t remember the origin.

    Was it something to do with Tambellini on Oil change?

    Its how Tambellini justified trading Gilbert for NShultz.

    Stu loved him his draft year and Stevie Y had him on the world cup team one year and recommended him.

  109. Ryan says:

    Bag of Pucks: It wouldn’t be the Oilogosphere (is that still a ‘thing?’) without complaining about who’s on the 4th line.

    As near as I can tell, it has something to do with not liking players who A) fight B) dump the puck in C) have long hair & D) don’t play for the league minimum.

    What was really interesting to me was the reaction of the Oilogosphere yesterday compared to the reaction of former pros now working in the broadcast arena. Almost unanimously, the pros praised Hendricks and the versatility, leadership, competitiveness and physicality he’ll add to an Oiler line-up badly in need of all of these attributes.

    Herein lies one of the problems with advanced stats based on the limited data currently available. The contributions from physical play can’t be adequately quantified. Winning teams win battles on the board and in the corners, they clear rebounds and tie up players in the slot, they’re hard on the forecheck and in puck pursuit. Where are the stats that quantify these elements of the game & the players that dominate in these areas?

    If Hendricks, were to fire 3 errant ineffective shots a shift while holding the opposition to one 5 star chance from the slot per shift, Corsi and Shot Differential would love him. Clearly there’s a problem with overvaluing these metrics.

    It’s really simple. Either you’re an effective hockey player or you’re not regardless of whether you fight, add grit, hit effectively, or win puck battles.

    If you can do all of the aforementioned and play hockey well, then great. If you can do all of the above, but suck at playing hockey, congratulations you’re an Edmonton Oiler.

  110. Ryan says:

    More goodness from Mr. Dellow for those who missed it:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hendricks-a-dangerous-get-for-the-oilers/

  111. icecastles says:

    LoDog: I look forward to seeing someone actually finish his checks tonight though.

    There’s Gazdic. He finishes his checks… and his Czechs.

  112. icecastles says:

    Woodguy: If you win more puck battles, you get more shots
    I hate when people say that someone contribution is “not quantifiable” That’s a cop out.
    If he contributes, it must be to something, or some end, or else its not a contribution.

    this is why I love your posts, Woodguy. Never stop.

  113. Woodguy says:

    icecastles: There’s Gazdic. He finishes his checks… and his Czechs.

    But he’s good in the room and players feel safer when he plays…….as long as he’s not shooting the puck at them.

  114. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: The history of the NHL draft is littered with Dmen who simply out muscled everyone in the CHL and were very good because of it.Often they went on to be average to decent NHLers when that advantage disappeared in the NHL.

    Ekblad has reportedly “great hockey sense” which helps, but slow feet scares the hell out of me.

    Lots of forwards fall into that category as well. Brule, Torres etc.

    Seeing as how a 1st pairing defender has such high value, I would think that it is worth the risk especially since the Oilers will have two more seasons of high picks ahead of them.

    They can always pick a forward next season.

    At some point you have to find and develop some of your own defense men. The market for trading for defensive needs is just as unpredictable as drafting them.

  115. Derek says:

    8p0intgame:
    Derek,

    I don’t appreciate your tone…

    Dustin Byfuglien:
    DOB: 27/03/1985 Age: 28 H: 6’5″ W: 265 lbs. Shoots: Right

    Cap hit: 5.2 million until 2015-16 (Byfuglien will be 31 when his contract expires)

    2013-14: 48 10-27-37 0.771 PPG TOI/60: 25.3 CF%: 51.8% GF%: 40.2%
    On pace for: 82 17-46-63
    2012-13: 43 8-20-28 0.651 PPG TOI/60: 24.1 CF%: 50.3% GF%: 48.6%
    2011-12: 66 12-41-53 0.803 PPG

    Shea Weber:
    DOB: 14/08/1985 Age: 28 H: 6’4″ W: 240 lbs. Shoots: Right

    Cap hit: 7.857,143 million until 2025-26 (Weber will be 41 when his contract expires)

    2013-14: 45 11-19-30 0.667 PPG TOI/60: 26.4 CF%: 47.6% GF%: 39.7%
    On pace for: 76 18-32-50
    2012-13: 48 9-19-28 0.583 PPG TOI/60: 25.5 CF%: 46% GF%: 48.4%
    2011-12: 78 19-30-49 0.628 PPG

    These numbers suggest that Byfuglien and Weber are similar players. Both are big, right-handed defensemen playing top pairing minutes for their respective teams, but Byfuglien brings more offence and has slightly better puck possession numbers. Weber may be the better player, but it isn’t unreasonable to come to the conclusion that Byfuglien would cost as much as Weber in a trade after looking at these numbers, whether he is ripped on by the local media or not.

    Also, in my armchair GM post last night, I wanted to resign Petry and use Marincin as my 7th defence man; I believe I mentioned earlier in this thread that I didn’t want to trade the first round pick and Gagner for Ward, never mind Eberle.

    Apologies for the tone, I’ve read a lot of comments lately that I disagree with wholeheartedly and I’m going full Vandelay. You never go full Vandelay.

    I agree with your stats based analysis that Weber and Byfuglien impact the game in similar ways but I can’t get on board with them having similar trade value because of the things that NHL GM’s do. Value and Potential and.. STUFF for players still seems to be so narrative and “saw him good” based in the hockey community.

    The media talks about Byfuglien not being committed to fitness, or playing defense, or committing too many turnovers that results in goals against.

    The media talks about Weber being a leader, a rock on the blue line, a good BC boy who plays with heart, leads by example and breathes fire.

    I don’t believe any of that shit, and I disagree with most everything the MSM has to say about players barring the good guys like Friedman, Mckenzie, etc.

    I believe that NHL General Managers do however, which is why I can’t agree with your assertion that the two have similar trade value.

    The Marincin, Petry and Eberle comments were attributed to other posters, not yourself.

  116. auzy11 says:

    I think almost any trade for the Oil at this point is a good one,with the obvious exclusion,of the usual suspects,At this point you have to start the shake up somewhat,and what Mct did yesterday i think is just the beginning of more to come,i cannot see Hemsky lasting, face it you are not going to get say a top 4 D man for him as i am certain there are playoff teams that would love Hemsky,what comes to mind is Pitt,with there young guys on D as per Despres,who is big strong,and cant get in the lineup in Pitt,i think this would be a good addition to the team,lets face it Hemskys value goes down everyday but playoff teams would love him,i think Mct did a good job yesterday all in all.

  117. auzy11 says:

    I think getting Buff is a pipe dream,,,too many teams will pay for a guy like that

  118. konst16 says:

    Woodguy:

    If you win more puck battles, you get more shots

    I hate when people say that someone contribution is “not quantifiable” That’s a cop out.

    If he contributes, it must be to something, or some end, or else its not a contribution.

    Does a guy “give his team a lift with his physical play?”

    If so , they the team would probably get more shots when he plays as opposed to when he doesn’t play.This can be quantified and checked.

    Does a guy win battles?That should show up immediately since it leads to more possession.

    If someone is adding something that can’t be quantified, they why are you sure something is being added?

    Is he good defensively?Should results in less shots and you can quantify it.

    Is he a leader?Does all the little things and shows others how to do the little things?That will show up too.

    Does he try hard, prepare himself like a pro and lead by example?Well if others are following that example, that should show up too in their improved play.

    If anything that a player adds doesn’t show up in the shot attempts data, for or against, I hesitate to say anything is being added.

    While i’m in the camp that find shot related statistics relevant, and valuable, I don’t feel all your examples apply. At least not to the extent that you can claim the player can add no value.

    Unless I missed something, we are talking about statistics measured only during the time that specific player is on the ice. I’m sick so its entirely possible I’m lost, though if not…

    You mention leadership, however I’ve always felt you measure it by your impact on your team mates. If a player only plays 10min in a game, his own possession numbers don’t seem all that useful in measuring how you are impacting your team mates.

    This one may be more of a stretch, however “physical play” and “winning battles” were mentioned as well. I fully admit, that if you are consistently doing these things, they will impact your own possession numbers. That said, I believe momentum is a huge factor in hockey, and to me it spans multiple shifts.

    For example, a guy goes out and plays a safe shift, ending up in mostly neutral zone play and no chances, but finishes it off coming out way ahead in a hit/battle, which means any momentum that created, will not impact that players possession numbers.

    If anything, this could result in worst numbers as compared against their team mates.

  119. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot: Lots of forwards fall into that category as well. Brule, Torres etc.

    Seeing as how a 1st pairing defender has such high value,I would think that it is worth the risk especially since the Oilers will have two more seasons of high picks ahead of them.

    They can always pick a forward next season.

    At some point you have to find and develop some of your own defense men. The market for trading for defensive needs is just as unpredictable as drafting them.

    Given the early returns on Marincin and how Nurse is looking and rated by many (Pronman has Nurse ahead of Ekblad and many had him as a toss up with Jones last year), and the wildcard that is Klef and J.Shultz putting up lots of offence I think D isn’t the area of greatest need in terms of drafting.

    There really isn’t a Center in the whole org worth talking about outside of RNH, Gordon and maaaaayyyyyybbbbbeee Arco in a pinch. (I like Arco as 4C and moving up as needed, a smaller version of Marcus Kruger)

    Center is a huge need, way more than D imo.

  120. Hammers says:

    Can we just let Scrivens & Hendricks play a few games before the negative comments .Sometimes I don’t get our fans (so called ) as every player has a different value to every team , ie DD I think he will shine with Nashville .

  121. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: Given the early returns on Marincin and how Nurse is looking and rated by many (Pronman has Nurse ahead of Ekblad and many had him as a toss up with Jones last year), and the wildcard that is Klef and J.Shultz putting up lots of offence I think D isn’t the area of greatest need in terms of drafting.

    There really isn’t a Center in the whole org worth talking about outside of RNH, Gordon and maaaaayyyyyybbbbbeee Arco in a pinch. (I like Arco as 4C and moving up as needed, a smaller version of Marcus Kruger)

    Center is a huge need, way more than D imo.

    100% accurate .

  122. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: There really isn’t a Center in the whole org worth talking about outside of RNH, Gordon and maaaaayyyyyybbbbbeee Arco in a pinch. (I like Arco as 4C and moving up as needed, a smaller version of Marcus Kruger)

    Given how much both Lowe and MacT talked up the pipeline recently you have to wonder how they gauge: Ewanyk, Yakimov, Kharia, etc.

    Do they expect these guys to play center if/when they make it? and how unreasonable is their timeline?

  123. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bag of Pucks: Herein lies one of the problems with advanced stats based on the limited data currently available. The contributions from physical play can’t be adequately quantified. Winning teams win battles on the board and in the corners, they clear rebounds and tie up players in the slot, they’re hard on the forecheck and in puck pursuit.

    Advanced stats don’t care how a good thing [or bad thing] was done – whether its physical play, skilled play, smart play or telekinesis. Advanced stats measure the end not the means.

    Physical play does nothing if it doesn’t move the team, and the puck. into a better position.

  124. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy:
    <
    I hate when people say that someone contribution is “not quantifiable” That’s a cop out.

    If he contributes, it must be to something, or some end, or else its not a contribution.

    Does a guy “give his team a lift with his physical play?”

    If so , they the team would probably get more shots when he plays as opposed to when he doesn’t play.This can be quantified and checked.

    Does a guy win battles?That should show up immediately since it leads to more possession.

    If someone is adding something that can’t be quantified, they why are you sure something is being added?

    Is he good defensively?Should results in less shots and you can quantify it.

    Notice the language being used. Should, probably, etc.

    Correlation does not imply causation.

    The workflow you describe above is exactly the problem. Lacking the definitive metrics to fully quantify each of these contributions, it all leads back to correlation based on proxy.

    Hockey is not baseball. Acting like the metrics available are definitive in a fluid decision model with multiple variables is hubris.

  125. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Given the early returns on Marincin and how Nurse is looking and rated by many (Pronman has Nurse ahead of Ekblad and many had him as a toss up with Jones last year), and the wildcard that is Klef and J.Shultz putting up lots of offence I think D isn’t the area of greatest need in terms of drafting.

    There really isn’t a Center in the whole org worth talking about outside of RNH, Gordon and maaaaayyyyyybbbbbeee Arco in a pinch. (I like Arco as 4C and moving up as needed, a smaller version of Marcus Kruger)

    Center is a huge need, way more than D imo.

    The Nuge at least is getting to be a known quantity.

    Every single defence men you are talking about is a maybe at best. The Oilers ‘s core is also in infinitely more terrible shape then center.

    Sure the Oilers don’t have a good two, but they don’t have any top pairing defenders. And that’s more difficult to acquire then a number two center.

    Defense men also take longer to develop so you would want to get them as soon as possible. Odds are the Oilers can still find a decent center prospect at 5-7th overall next season. Or knowing the Oikers as we do, they will probably be in the race for Mcdavid or Eichel.

  126. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    My thoughts exactly.

    Anything unforeseen happens to Nugent-Hopkins and this whole experiment is down the toilet.

    Hence my hope that the Oilers could look at trading down to pick up an immediate asset to play 2C and draft a center for the future.

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    Mr DeBakey

    Physical play does nothing if it doesn’t move the team, and the puck. into a better position.

    Agreed, but we have no metrics to definitively measure improved puck position either.

    http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/03/12/why-advanced-statistics-approaches-hockey-completely-wrong-but-still-gets-things-right/

  128. denny33 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    It wouldn’t be the Oilogosphere (is that still a ‘thing?’) without complaining about who’s on the 4th line.
    As near as I can tell, it has something to do with not liking players who A) fight B) dump the puck in C) have long hair & D) don’t play for the league minimum.
    What was really interesting to me was the reaction of the Oilogosphere yesterday compared to the reaction of former pros now working in the broadcast arena. Almost unanimously, the pros praised Hendricks and the versatility, leadership, competitiveness and physicality he’ll add to an Oiler line-up badly in need of all of these attributes.
    Herein lies one of the problems with advanced stats based on the limited data currently available. The contributions from physical play can’t be adequately quantified. Winning teams win battles on the board and in the corners, they clear rebounds and tie up players in the slot, they’re hard on the forecheck and in puck pursuit. Where are the stats that quantify these elements of the game & the players that dominate in these areas?
    If Hendricks, were to fire 3 errant ineffective shots a shift while holding the opposition to one 5 star chance from the slot per shift, Corsi and Shot Differential would love him. Clearly there’s a problem with overvaluing these metrics.
    ***********************************************************************************
    I agree with you 99% of the time.

    In I agree with toughness and I, like McTavish, believe in the Dave Brown effect. Fully appreciate why our skilled forwards don’t come within 10 feet of the opposition goalie

    If Hendricks was 25 – no problem – I could live with the deal. ( still would not like it )

    But he is older than most of the guys on my over 30 beer league team.

    Certainly, we ALL know where Hendricks will be in 24 months…..same place as Belanger and Smithson.

  129. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    RexLibris,

    Isn’t Draisaitl the big centre they need? I know he’s not tall (6’1) but he’s already pretty beefy for 17 (209). Doesn’t that bode well for his future filling out?

    I dunno, maybe I have been hearing too much of Rom here, but he seems like the big, skilled centre in the Monahan mold, which is the guy the Oilers really could’ve used in the 2013 draft imo.

  130. Bag of Pucks says:

    denny33:
    Bag of Pucks,

    It wouldn’t be the Oilogosphere (is that still a ‘thing?’) without complaining about who’s on the 4th line.
    As near as I can tell, it has something to do with not liking players who A) fight B) dump the puck in C) have long hair & D) don’t play for the league minimum.
    What was really interesting to me was the reaction of the Oilogosphere yesterday compared to the reaction of former pros now working in the broadcast arena. Almost unanimously, the pros praised Hendricks and the versatility, leadership, competitiveness and physicality he’ll add to an Oiler line-up badly in need of all of these attributes.
    Herein lies one of the problems with advanced stats based on the limited data currently available. The contributions from physical play can’t be adequately quantified. Winning teams win battles on the board and in the corners, they clear rebounds and tie up players in the slot, they’re hard on the forecheck and in puck pursuit. Where are the stats that quantify these elements of the game & the players that dominate in these areas?
    If Hendricks, were to fire 3 errant ineffective shots a shift while holding the opposition to one 5 star chance from the slot per shift, Corsi and Shot Differential would love him. Clearly there’s a problem with overvaluing these metrics.
    ***********************************************************************************
    I agree with you 99% of the time.

    In I agree with toughness and I,like McTavish, believe inthe Dave Brown effect. Fully appreciate why our skilled forwards don’t come within 10 feet of the opposition goalie

    If Hendricks was 25 – no problem – I could live with the deal. ( still would not like it )

    But he is older than most of the guys on my over 30 beer league team.

    Certainly,we ALL know where Hendricks will be in 24 months…..same place as Belanger and Smithson.

    I’m not a big fan of the player age/contract either. But we haven’t even seen the guy play yet, and some bloggers are calling this trade a fireable offense for MacT. It’s the theatre of the absurd.

    The issue the Oilers have is the rebuild is bass ackwards in a number of ways. Goalie prospects acquired after defenseman after forwards. Vets acquired after rooks, etc.

    It really is becoming the textbook on how not to do it at this point. It’s hard to shake the feeling that there was no actual rebuild blueprint beyond tank and bpa.

  131. book¡je says:

    Woodguy – I agree pretty much with your argument about metrics. The only time when I think this might not apply is with a facepuncher (and I very much disagree with the need or want for facepunchers).

    IF many of the skilled players on the team FEEL that they are being pushed around because the team lacks a good facepuncher, then it may be worth getting someone like Gazdic or MacIntyre simply to keep the rest of the players on the team happy despite the fact that these players are probably (certainly) a negative on the ice.

    I would argue that these players may still have a negative impact on the ice, but if they keep your players from thinking that they are neglected by management then it may be a reasonable move.

    So, I guess this is kind of like the ‘good in the room’ effect in that it suggests impacts on team moral as opposed to any one single game.

    Overall, I suspect that effect is far less than the actual on the ice impact of a player.

  132. sliderule says:

    Bar_Qu,

    The problem I see with Draisaitl is he has heavy feet and despite his size is not playing big.

    I would hope if Reinhart is there they take him unless they feel Bennett is better.

  133. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Notice the language being used. Should, probably, etc.

    Correlation does not imply causation.

    The workflow you describe above is exactly the problem. Lacking the definitive metrics to fully quantify each of these contributions, it all leads back to correlation based on proxy.

    Hockey is not baseball. Acting like the metrics available are definitive in a fluid decision model with multiple variables is hubris.

    Discounting metrics without knowing the work that has gone into them and the fact that its been over 10,000 games and 1,000,000 shot attempts worth of data that has been examined and dismissing them with a wave of your hand and the old saws “correlation doesn’t equal causation” and “hockey isn’t basevall” is weak and sophomoric.

    If you don’t like them, fine, don’t use them.

    But don’t come into threads that use them and wave it all away with arguments that have been refuted ad infinitum.

    That’s not this place.

  134. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    I remember very similar conversations in here ( not necessarily by you ) about even taking Nurse last year….

  135. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Agreed, but we have no metrics to definitively measure improved puck position either.

    http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/03/12/why-advanced-statistics-approaches-hockey-completely-wrong-but-still-gets-things-right/

    I assume you overlooked this in that article:

    There simply aren’t enough actual goals scored to create a large enough sample size to analyse. Fortunately, shots end up correlating nicely with goals over time. Fenwick correlates incredibly closely to scoring chances, but this isn’t because shooting the puck a lot is the same as creating a scoring chance. It’s just that the same processes that aim to produce shot quality will also produce shot quantity.

    Also,

    Read this: http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

  136. Woodguy says:

    denny33:
    Woodguy,

    I remember very similar conversations in here ( not necessarily by you ) about even taking Nurse last year….

    The question with Nurse was usually the offence.

    They fact that he didn’t play PP1 impacted his numbers in a big way.

  137. Ducey says:

    Mr DeBakey: Advanced stats don’t care how a good thing[or bad thing] was done – whether its physical play, skilled play, smart play or telekinesis.Advanced stats measure the end not the means.

    Physical play does nothing if it doesn’t move the team, and the puck. into a better position.

    Sure, but it depends which stat(s) you are using. Yesterday some people said Hendricks is crap and cited his CF% as 8th worst in the league. That was as far as the analysis went. End of discussion.

    Shots for and against are of assistance but hardly determinative. You have to take into account teammates, quality of competition, the score, zone start and what phase the moon is at. The Oilers constantly pass up shots, which means their Corsi may not reflect possession properly.

    If Hendricks had been playing regularly with Crosby, Malkin and Letang, his advanced numbers would look pretty nice. In fact, he had been playing with guys whose CF% also sucks.

    If Hall plays with more abandon and his CF% goes up because Hendricks in there to back him up, does that show up? I am not advocating this, just that we don’t measure lots of things. Plus none of these stats seem to have predictive value when dealing with young players or limited data.

    I think Woodguy does a good job of pointing out many factors, not just one, and he also is careful about the weight he gives to these stats (he acknowledges there could be other things at play often). I wish others would too.

    We all wish that there was some magic stat that would just give us a read on the value of a player. There isn’t one. This doesn’t mean we ignore the stats, but we can’t dismiss observations either.

  138. hoser313 says:

    Bank Shot:

    Seeing as how a 1st pairing defender has such high value,I would think that it is worth the risk especially since the Oilers will have two more seasons of high picks ahead of them.

    At some point you have to find and develop some of your own defense men. The market for trading for defensive needs is just as unpredictable as drafting them.

    I agree 100%. I reckon the Oil can get no more than 1 top 3 D via trade or FA signing. And that will be a big overpay. So hopefully it’s a guy still in his 20′s.

    In 2015-16, when the Oilers start to move up the rankings, I think the bona fide top 3 D will be the new guy, Petry and someone else developed within (could be Jultz or Marincin).

    In my view, the big 2C is actually the last piece of the puzzle that isn’t worth getting (unless you draft one this spring and he develops quickly) until the defence gets significantly better.

  139. RexLibris says:

    sliderule:
    Bar_Qu,

    The problem I see with Draisaitl is he has heavy feet and despite his size is not playing big.

    I would hope if Reinhart is there they take him unless they feel Bennett is better.

    My experience in watching a player like Cogliano versus Nugent-Hopkins, obvious talent ceilings aside, has convinced me that straight-ahead speed is not as important as quickness and agility. From what I have read of Draisaitl he does have good agility and quickness and when one considers that a center is usually skating in and out of traffic, quickness is, I believe, as important as quickness and agility.

    Personally, I very strongly believe this team needs another center in the draft. We have defensive prospects out the wa-zoo. Centermen, not so much.

  140. Derek says:

    Woodguy: Discounting metrics without knowing the work that has gone into them and the fact that its been over 10,000 games and 1,000,000 shot attempts worth of data that has been examined and dismissing them with a wave of your hand and the old saws “correlation doesn’t equal causation” and “hockey isn’t basevall” is weak and sophomoric.

    If you don’t like them, fine, don’t use them.

    But don’t come into threads that use them and wave it all away with arguments that have been refuted ad infinitum.

    That’s not this place.

    Thank you for this.

  141. sliderule says:

    As I understand it advanced stats are measuring possession for the team and zone starts for players.There are some others like shot distance but the main ones I hear quoted on this site are the former.
    These stats are result stats and don’t give you a lot of insight of what to do about it.
    The one stat that is important is average weight of the team.This is something you can do something about be it drafting ,weight training or nutrition.
    The oilers are one of the lightest teams in the nhl and they will continue to get the crap beat out of them until they do something about it.

  142. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: My experience in watching a player like Cogliano versus Nugent-Hopkins, obvious talent ceilings aside, has convinced me that straight-ahead speed is not as important as quickness and agility.

    It’s worth remembering this and thinking of a guy like Gazdic. Pretty damn good straightaway speed.

    Now, try to get him to pivot, turn, lean or really do anything other than go straight. Now, send a puck his way. Now, add the element of scorched earth.

    RexLibris: From what I have read of Draisaitl he does have good agility and quickness and when one considers that a center is usually skating in and out of traffic, quickness is, I believe, as important as quickness and agility.

    I’m in no position to evaluate prospects but I’ve heard him compared to Kopitar a lot. He’s not especially fast either.

  143. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Re: Kopitar. No, but he doesn’t need to be.

    Speed is somewhat overrated/oversimplified. A player needs to have some of it, but more importantly know how to turn, dodge, and especially change speed. You can get away with it more on the wings than down the middle. In the middle I want someone smart and quick.

    I haven’t seen any of these players this year, so I’m working off of secondhand reports and so on, but I’m open to more than just size, points, or straight up speed. If Draisaitl offers that, great. But we need to ditch the German Gretzky tag and fast. I haven’t heard it for awhile and it needs to stay that way if this kid has even a chance of coming to Edmonton because that would be the kiss of death.

  144. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: If Draisaitl offers that, great. But we need to ditch the German Gretzky tag and fast. I haven’t heard it for awhile and it needs to stay that way if this kid has even a chance of coming to Edmonton because that would be the kiss of death.

    Draisaitl is so fun to say, there is very little reason to search for appellations for the kid.

  145. delooper says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Draisaitl is so fun to say, there is very little reason to search for appellations for the kid.

    Draisaitl, Satan and Yakupov would be a good line for aural pleasure.

  146. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: Discounting metrics without knowing the work that has gone into them and the fact that its been over 10,000 games and 1,000,000 shot attempts worth of data that has been examined and dismissing them with a wave of your hand and the old saws “correlation doesn’t equal causation” and “hockey isn’t basevall” is weak and sophomoric.

    If you don’t like them, fine, don’t use them.

    But don’t come into threads that use them and wave it all away with arguments that have been refuted ad infinitum.

    That’s not this place.

    The ‘my sandbox’ argument? lol

    Saying the metrics aren’t definitive isn’t discounting or dismissing them. It’s merely acknowledging that they have limitations, and that the data available currently is insufficient to quantify all contributions.

  147. icecastles says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Draisaitl is so fun to say

    I heard Dry Saddle on here earlier. I’m running with that one.

  148. Mr DeBakey says:

    sliderule: The one stat that is important is average weight of the team.

    No it isn’t:
    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/04/oilers-at-ducks-g39-12-13-7-4-13.html/comment-page-1#comment-222344

  149. OilClog says:

    While Hendricks isn’t a player I would exactly go after, this trade is nowhere near as bad as some are making it out to be.

    He’s a plug, MacT has stated said love for plugs. He’s a plug with experience and weight, from a Trotz coached team, I’ll take it over Joenssu, Jones, Lander, Hamilton, Gazdic whatever else we’ve been throwing against the wall. If he brings the hits he’s automatically #1 on the team, and maybe just maybe he’ll literally rub off on some teammates.

    Dubnyk was a leaking plug that had laughing value around the league. I know the new trend of seeing him “bad” has no value. But I’ve seen goals go in the net that there literally no words for. He’s been a back breaker all season.

  150. Woodguy says:

    konst16: While i’m in the camp that find shot related statistics relevant, and valuable, I don’t feel all your examples apply. At least not to the extent that you can claim the player can add no value.

    Unless I missed something, we are talking about statistics measured only during the time that specific player is on the ice. I’m sick so its entirely possible I’m lost, though if not…

    You mention leadership, however I’ve always felt you measure it by your impact on your team mates. If a player only plays 10min in a game, his own possession numbers don’t seem all that useful in measuring how you are impacting your team mates.

    This one may be more of a stretch, however “physical play” and “winning battles” were mentioned as well. I fully admit, that if you are consistently doing these things, they will impact your own possession numbers. That said, I believe momentum is a huge factor in hockey, and to me it spans multiple shifts.

    For example, a guy goes out and plays a safe shift, ending up in mostly neutral zone play and no chances, but finishes it off coming out way ahead in a hit/battle, which means any momentum that created, will not impact that players possession numbers.

    If anything, this could result in worst numbers as compared against their team mates.

    If a player’s leadership is helping the whole team, then they should see an uptick in a variety of metrics when you compare the time before and after he arrived.

    So i’m talking about looking at the team as a whole, not just that player’s results.

    Also, safe shifts show up a lot.

    Fistric is the poster boy for this.

    Had a very good relative corsi, mostly due to nothing happening when he was on the ice.

    Good points, but they can be accounted for.

  151. Marc says:

    Some belated thoughts on the trade…

    A number of people on here have suggested/implied that the Oilers could have and should have either traded Dubnyk for a low pick or simply let him be claimed on waivers instead of taking Hendricks. With respect, I don’t think either of these was ever a possibility.

    Since the beginning of the season there have only been 2 trades where one team has taken on significantly more money than the other – NYI took on an extra $2.5M in the Vanek trade and Calgary took on $3.5M x 4 for Smid. Vanek has been way more productive than Moulson over the past few seasons, and hasn’t had the benefit of playing with Tavares. I think it’s fair to say that NYI got the better player. Smid was viewed at the time as a solid shut down top 4 D in the prime of his career and on reasonable contract. Calgary gave up only a decent goalie prospect who is years away, and a young AHL/4th liner.

    So in both cases the team that took on the extra money got a significantly better player in return. Dubnyk is a pending UFA, ranked 47/48 in SV% this season and has a $3.5M cap hit. There is ZERO chance that any team would voluntarily add that combination to their team for a low pick, or even for free off waivers. Half the teams in the league wouldn’t have enough cap space to add him without something going back even if they had wanted to. He moves for an ugly contract, or he doesn’t move at all.

    So when MacT found out Scrivens was available for a good price, he had 3, maybe 4 choices:

    1. Three headed goalie monster. We all know how well that has worked for MacT in the past.

    2. Waive Dubnyk – it’s a virtual certainty he clears, so he plays out the season in OKC and departs as a UFA. I’m guessing that much of the commentary on such a move would include the words “Souray”, “asset management” and possibly “Mickey Mouse organisation”.

    3. Add Hendricks – a player they like – on a contract that pays him $900K a year more than he’s worth for the next 3 years (either on the team or in OKC).

    4. Possibly add a different player on a similarly bad contract.

    I think that adding Scrivens was a very solid move, but it necessitated one of the 4 options above. Without knowing whether there was the fourth option, and if so, what the other possible players/contracts looked like, it sure seems to me that option 3 is the least bad option. Best case scenario Hendricks is better than one of our crappy 4th liners and eats $900K more from our cap than he’s worth. Worst case scenario, he is or becomes useless, and eats $900K from our cap whilst playing in the AHL.

  152. commonfan14 says:

    Strudwick has some interesting things to say the other day about the importance of having “characters” (not to be confused with “character”) in the locker room. Cited a couple of his Rangers teams in particular that were loaded with weirdos who kept everyone laughing every day, and said that he noticed this really kept everyone in good spirits before games and prevented them from ever coming out flat in the first.

    He also couldn’t think of who the real characters were on the current Oilers roster, especially with Smid gone.

    By all accounts, Hendricks is quite a character.

    Maybe it’s all imagined BS, but I thought it was an interesting insight into how players (and, presumably, former player GMs) perceive each other’s value in different ways. Could have been something MacT was thinking I suppose.

  153. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: The ‘my sandbox’ argument? lol

    Saying the metrics aren’t definitive isn’t discounting or dismissing them. It’s merely acknowledging that they have limitations, and that the data available currently is insufficient to quantify all contributions.

    Your post pretty much dismissed them, hence my rection.

    As for the sandbox, I found LT’s place back when Vic just stopped posting (godfather of fancy stats) and people like Tyler, Jon, Dennis, Showerhead, Speeds, PDO, Hbomb, Godot10 etc. made up most of a thread.

    Even Art Vandelay was a good poster before he just came by to remind everyone how awful the Oilers are.

    LT’s was one of the first places on the Al Gore that fancy stats were discussed and sussed out.

    It’s not the church of the holy sepulchre of fancy stats (that would be IOF and another blogspot that I can’t quite remember), it’s not far off.

    So yeah, this is a different sandbox than other sites and it pisses me off because they same arguments that have been refuted for years and years keep cropping up because everyone thinks they are the first to say “hockey isn’t baseball” or “but shot from center ice is the same as a shot from the slot in corsi”, but they’re not new.

    They’re old.

    They’ve been refuted and everyone has moved on and getting into the same thing over and over again in otherwise good threads is exasperating to those who have been around doe 5+ years.

    There.

    I feel better now.

    Thanks for that.

  154. Lowetide says:

    commonfan14:
    Strudwick has some interesting things to say the other day about the importance of having “characters” (not to be confused with “character”) in the locker room.Cited a couple of his Rangers teams in particular that were loaded with weirdos who kept everyone laughing every day, and said that he noticed this really kept everyone in good spirits before games and prevented them from ever coming out flat in the first.

    He also couldn’t think of who the real characters were on the current Oilers roster, especially with Smid gone.

    By all accounts, Hendricks is quite a character.

    Maybe it’s all imagined BS, but I thought it was an interesting insight into how players (and, presumably, former player GMs) perceive each other’s value in different ways.Could have been something MacT was thinking I suppose.

    I remember hearing reports that Chris Pronger drove everyone crazy because if they made a mistake in a game he’d be bringing it up two days later. That’s the kind of character I want on this team.

  155. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: I assume you overlooked this in that article:

    There simply aren’t enough actual goals scored to create a large enough sample size to analyse. Fortunately, shots end up correlating nicely with goals over time. Fenwick correlates incredibly closely to scoring chances, but this isn’t because shooting the puck a lot is the same as creating a scoring chance. It’s just that the same processes that aim to produce shot quality will also produce shot quantity.

    I read it. Did you comprehend this part when YOU read it?

    Fenwick correlates incredibly closely to scoring chances,but this isn’t because shooting the puck a lot is the same as creating a scoring chance. It’s just that the same processes that aim to produce shot quality will also produce shot quantity.

  156. Bag of Pucks says:

    Marc:
    Some belated thoughts on the trade…

    A number of people on here have suggested/implied that the Oilers could have and should have either traded Dubnyk for a low pick or simply let him be claimed on waivers instead of taking Hendricks. With respect, I don’t think either of these was ever a possibility.

    Since the beginning of the season there have only been 2 trades where one team has taken on significantly more money than the other – NYI took on an extra $2.5M in the Vanek trade and Calgary took on $3.5M x 4 for Smid. Vanek has been way more productive than Moulson over the past few seasons, and hasn’t had the benefit of playing with Tavares. I think it’s fair to say that NYI got the better player.Smid was viewed at the time as a solid shut down top 4 D in the prime of his career and on reasonable contract. Calgary gave up only a decent goalie prospect who is years away, and a young AHL/4th liner.

    So in both cases the team that took on the extra money got a significantly better player in return.Dubnyk is a pending UFA, ranked 47/48 in SV% this season and has a $3.5M cap hit.There is ZERO chance that any team would voluntarily add that combination to their team for a low pick, or even for free off waivers.Half the teams in the league wouldn’t have enough cap space to add him without something going back even if they had wanted to. He moves for an ugly contract, or he doesn’t move at all.

    So when MacT found out Scrivens was available for a good price, he had 3, maybe 4 choices:

    1. Three headed goalie monster. We all know how well that has worked for MacT in the past.

    2. Waive Dubnyk – it’s a virtual certainty he clears, so he plays out the season in OKC and departs as a UFA. I’m guessing that much of the commentary on such a move would include the words “Souray”, “asset management” and possibly “Mickey Mouse organisation”.

    3. Add Hendricks – a player they like – on a contract that pays him $900K a year more than he’s worth for the next 3 years (either on the team or in OKC).

    4. Possibly add a different player on a similarly bad contract.

    I think that adding Scrivens was a very solid move, but it necessitated one of the 4 options above.Without knowing whether there was the fourth option, and if so, what the other possible players/contracts looked like, it sure seems to me that option 3 is the least bad option. Best case scenario Hendricks is better than one of our crappy 4th liners and eats $900K more from our cap than he’s worth.Worst case scenario, he is or becomes useless, and eats $900Kfrom our cap whilst playing in the AHL.

    Excellent post.

  157. Numenius says:

    Woodguy:

    Also, safe shifts show up a lot.

    Fistric is the poster boy for this.

    Had a very good relative corsi, mostly due to nothing happening when he was on the ice.

    Good points, but they can be accounted for.

    Speaking of Fistric, I think his calming presence and physical game would have made a significant different to the D this year, despite his weaknesses in puck moving. Too bad we let him walk.

  158. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy

    So yeah, this is a different sandbox than other sites and it pisses me off because they same arguments that have been refuted for years and years keep cropping up because everyone thinks they are the first to say “hockey isn’t baseball” or “but shot from center ice is the same as a shot from the slot in corsi”, but they’re not new.

    They’re old.

    They’ve been refuted and everyone has moved on and getting into the same thing over and over again in otherwise good threads is exasperating to those who have been around doe 5+ years.

    You refuted that ‘hockey isn’t baseball?’ Do you have the link?

    I’m guessing the process was a combination of time machines and hypnotism…

  159. denny33 says:

    RexLibris,

    Personally, I very strongly believe this team needs another center in the draft. We have defensive prospects out the wa-zoo. Centermen, not so much.
    ****************************************************************
    This idea has been floating out here lately….

    Someone just posted the top list of hockey prospects….ONLY Oiler was Darnell Nurse. No other Oiler on the list.

    I guess I don’t see any #1 pairing blue chip D-men in our system besides Nurse.

    Klefbom upside by Pronman potential #2 guy but he has STRUGGLED in the prospects game in the pre-season and in the AHL.

    Marincin looks good so far, but his upside was/is listed as 2nd pairing guy.

    Next guy on the list is Gernat – again his upside is listed as 2nd pairing, with high risk.

    Not really seeing any – blue chip – #1 pairing D prospects that stand out. For sure good quality depth prospects….solid for sure.

    Just want to make sure I am not dismissing any of the above by any means….and Klefbom still has lots of time to develop.

  160. Woodguy says:

    commonfan14:
    Strudwick has some interesting things to say the other day about the importance of having “characters” (not to be confused with “character”) in the locker room.Cited a couple of his Rangers teams in particular that were loaded with weirdos who kept everyone laughing every day, and said that he noticed this really kept everyone in good spirits before games and prevented them from ever coming out flat in the first.

    He also couldn’t think of who the real characters were on the current Oilers roster, especially with Smid gone.

    By all accounts, Hendricks is quite a character.

    Maybe it’s all imagined BS, but I thought it was an interesting insight into how players (and, presumably, former player GMs) perceive each other’s value in different ways.Could have been something MacT was thinking I suppose.

    For the record, I believe in “intangibles”

    I played a ton of sports and I get it.

    I just think that “intangibles” are tangible and team performance can be measured.

  161. OilClog says:

    Lowetide: I remember hearing reports that Chris Pronger drove everyone crazy because if they made a mistake in a game he’d be bringing it up two days later. That’s the kind of character I want on this team.

    Prongs was probably just trying to mask his guilt.

  162. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: I remember hearing reports that Chris Pronger drove everyone crazy because if they made a mistake in a game he’d be bringing it up two days later. That’s the kind of character I want on this team.

    I got a lot of problems with you people!

  163. Young Oil says:

    I don’t think anyone has mentioned this Scott Cullen tweet so far:

    “J.Tootoo, M.Samuelsson & T.Mitchell are only forwards with lower ATOI than Matt Hendricks (11:33), while getting paid more on AAV ($1.85M).”

    I know TOI isn’t a very good representation of a good contract, and how NSH handled Hendricks isn’t the same as how we will, but it’s still not a great sign.

    Especially considering Hendricks is signed for two years longer than anyone on that list, and is older than Mitchell and Tootoo (who is buried in the minors), while Samuelsson is essentially getting a retirement bonus with the contract he has.

  164. G Money says:

    commonfan14: Strudwick has some interesting things to say the other day about the importance of having “characters” (not to be confused with “character”) in the locker room. Cited a couple of his Rangers teams in particular that were loaded with weirdos who kept everyone laughing every day

    Woodguy: I just think that “intangibles” are tangible and team performance can be measured.

    Seems to me this is a nice little juxtaposition to clarify the issue.

    “Being a character” and “making other players laugh” are pretty ephemeral things in the cold hard business of hockey.

    Yet if what Strudwick/Common are saying is true, the situation would go like this:

    Being a character -> making players laugh -> keeping things lose -> team doesn’t come out flat in the first -> team doesn’t give up a bushel of shots and goals early -> short-term Corsi close improves -> long-term goals and win-loss improves

    Ephemeral intangible quality. Check.
    Measurable and quantifiable result. Check.

    That’s how it’s supposed to work.

  165. Ducey says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Woodguy,

    RexLibris,

    Isn’t Draisaitl the big centre they need? I know he’s not tall (6’1) but he’s already pretty beefy for 17 (209). Doesn’t that bode well for his future filling out?

    I dunno, maybe I have been hearing too much of Rom here, but he seems like the big, skilled centre in the Monahan mold, which is the guy the Oilers really could’ve used in the 2013 draft imo.

    I see “Leon” is #7 on the ISS draft ranking. There is a long way to go but if that is accurate then it would be a stretch (from say the second pick) to draft him based on need.

  166. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey: I see “Leon” is #7 on the ISS draft ranking.There is a long way to go but if that is accurate then it would be a stretch (from say the second pick) to draft him based on need.

    We are still really far away. But, Button had him at 11 (a drop) yesterday and the Hockey New had him at 1. So…. there is a lot of disparity at the moment.

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/2014-nhl-draft-rankings-draisaitl-takes-over-no-1/

  167. Derek says:

    G Money:
    Seems to me this is a nice little juxtaposition to clarify the issue.

    “Being a character” and “making other players laugh” are pretty ephemeral things in the cold hard business of hockey.

    Yet if what Strudwick/Common are saying is true, the situation would go like this:

    Being a character -> making players laugh -> keeping things lose -> team doesn’t come out flat in the first -> team doesn’t give up a bushel of shots and goals early -> short-term Corsi close improves -> long-term goals and win-loss improves

    Ephemeral intangible quality.Check.
    Measurable and quantifiable result.Check.

    That’s how it’s supposed to work.

    This team really doesn’t need any help with that! :)

  168. VanOil says:

    Drafty thoughts

    Did any one else notice the Sportnet feature last night on the German Cowboy Herr Dry Saddle uses a Ryan Smyth canue blade on his stick? I am now 100% on board this pick, it was meant to be. A large play maker between Nuge and Perron would be (Country?) Music.

    Big slow Ekblad who has a Biological Age advantage over his peers seems like a poor bet.

    As I am no longer in the spirit to trade away this years magic bean pick, how about next years? Florida is hosting the 2015 Draft I am sure the owner down there would love to market that they have 2 first round selections. Would a 2015 1st get Kulikov? Or the 2015 1st for Brian Campbell + Matthias? Oilers would hope the pick is around 15th overall, based on past performance Florida could expect it to be a McDavid lottery ball.

  169. book¡je says:

    WG – it’s not just the advanced stats that make this the best blog on the web, but the rational discussion general and the lack acceptance of the unjustified player X sucks narratives.

  170. Derek says:

    Drives Idle and Nurse are both going to be playing in the NHL next season because .. you know…. Oilers gonna Oil.

  171. Young Oil says:

    VanOil:

    As I am no longer in the spirit to trade away this years magic bean pick, how about next years? Florida is hosting the 2015 Draft I am sure the owner down there would love to market that they have 2 first round selections. Would a 2015 1st get Kulikov? Or the 2015 1st for Brian Campbell + Matthias? Oilers would hope the pick is around 15th overall, based on past performance Florida could expect it to be a McDavid lottery ball.

    Knowing our luck that pick would turn out to be McDavid though. Many thought we would make the playoffs this year as well, and we are looking at a top 3 pick. I don’t think it’s worth risking a chance at McDavid that next year will be any different.

  172. RexLibris says:

    Ducey,

    As Rom mentioned above, the lists vary widely.

    CSS has him at #2 behind Bennett. Button has him outside the top 10, and I’ve seen him on other lists more or less between #2 and #5.

    When the Oilers took Yakupov I had argued leading up to that draft that it might be in their best interests to leave some talent on the table and select for need – I know, heresy, but Galchenyuk wouldn’t have been too significant a reach, in my opinion. Risky, yes, but within consideration.

    This year, if the Oilers are selecting 2nd overall (possible) I’m beginning to wonder if they could trade down with a team like the Flames and get a player like Backlund in exchange. Burke would take Ekblad in a heartbeat considering the Flames’ prospect situation on defense and his recent verbal on liking Jack Johnson over Bobby Ryan in ’05, and the Oilers might be able to turn that to their advantage. Get a prospect for the future and a player for the present that can plug in on the second line and provide some stability.

    Probably dreaming of exacting that much, but what’s the internet for if not to toss out wildly unsubstantiated rumours and conspiracy theories. And pictures of nekkid ladeez.

  173. gogliano says:

    G Money:
    Seems to me this is a nice little juxtaposition to clarify the issue.

    “Being a character” and “making other players laugh” are pretty ephemeral things in the cold hard business of hockey.

    Yet if what Strudwick/Common are saying is true, the situation would go like this:

    Being a character -> making players laugh -> keeping things lose -> team doesn’t come out flat in the first -> team doesn’t give up a bushel of shots and goals early -> short-term Corsi close improves -> long-term goals and win-loss improves

    Ephemeral intangible quality.Check.
    Measurable and quantifiable result.Check.

    That’s how it’s supposed to work.

    That, though, doesn’t actually get you very far. At least if the aim is explanation as opposed to disproving commentators views of the world.

  174. RexLibris says:

    book¡je: WG – it’s not just the advanced stats that make this the best blog on the web, but the rational discussion general and the lack acceptance of the unjustified player X sucks narratives.

    But player X is the suckiest suck who every sucked. Book it.

    ;)

  175. sliderule says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Well that might have been true for the whole roster at that time but the team they rolled out against Dallas. was at about 196 lbs.

    The game earlier without Belov the defence was 192 lbs.

  176. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: You refuted that ‘hockey isn’t baseball?’ Do you have the link?

    I’m guessing the process was a combination of time machines and hypnotism…

    It’s the refutation that because hockey isn’t static that it can’t be tracked.

    See the emergence and dominance of fancy stats in basketball, which has a lot in common with hockey in terms of continuous play.

    I’m not your teacher.

    Do your own research.

  177. konst16 says:

    Woodguy: If a player’s leadership is helping the whole team, then they should see an uptick in a variety of metrics when you compare the time before and after he arrived.

    So i’m talking about looking at the team as a whole, not just that player’s results.

    I’m pretty sure your comment I quoted was specifically talking about while the player is on the ice..

    “If so , they the team would probably get more shots when he plays as opposed to when he doesn’t play.”

    Not so much about overall team stats.

    Assuming we were talking about team numbers, I would agree more, but still don’t believe its as simple as you put it. Teams are fluid, and attempting tie one players leadership to an uptick in some specific adv team stats seems like stretch at best. Throw in large events like losing your #1 dman for most of the year and it becomes pointless.

    Also, safe shifts show up a lot.

    Fistric is the poster boy for this.

    Had a very good relative corsi, mostly due to nothing happening when he was on the ice.

    Good points, but they can be accounted for.

    My point wasn’t about being safe or not (it was just fewer letters to use that example), but more about how momentum can be created on one shift (with no measurable impact on that shifts #’s), and leveraged on subsequent shifts. Something possession numbers seem unable to account for as I understand them.

    All I’m suggesting is that there exists player traits valuable to a hockey team, that are not consistently reflected in the oft quoted possession stats. It only seems logical that the current numbers used have limitations, no ?

    Marc,

    100% agree.

  178. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: I read it. Did you comprehend this part when YOU read it?

    Fenwick correlates incredibly closely to scoring chances,but this isn’t because shooting the puck a lot is the same as creating a scoring chance. It’s just that the same processes that aim to produce shot quality will also produce shot quantity.

    Soooooo your point is that fenwick works.

    Good.

  179. RexLibris says:

    On another note, I had a dream last night that I grew a mullet, but then shaved a monk’s tonsure into it.

    Woke up feeling…well…disturbed.

    Then after a few moments to digest it, it made sense. I was dreaming of the Holy Brotherhood of St. Smytty, with the mullet as a symbol of our covenant with His Grace, and the tonsure our devotion to a life devoid of sporting esteem or success.

    Pax Vobiscum

  180. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: I read it. Did you comprehend this part when YOU read it?

    Fenwick correlates incredibly closely to scoring chances,but this isn’t because shooting the puck a lot is the same as creating a scoring chance. It’s just that the same processes that aim to produce shot quality will also produce shot quantity.

    Also,

    I’ve been on my phone so reading everything is a little tough.

    You linked article is an opinion article.

    I see no work to back up his hypothesis.

    It may be true, but it’s still just an opinion.

    The opinion is that fenwick works in spite of itself.

    Still says it works.

  181. Woodguy says:

    konst16,

    Of course the current numbers have limitations.

    I’ve stated many, many times that passing data and battle data would be invaluable.

    On the other point I tried to use team stats for “good guy in the room” and on/off stats for “gritty etc.”. If that wasn’t clear, that’s on me.

  182. russ99 says:

    I’d love to see he Oilers get Draisaitl. He seems like he as a lot more upside than Monahan a year ago.

    Real interested to see the new Oilers tonight and what they bring to the table.

    I just hope Eakins doesn’t put Hendricks at wing with Smyth at center on that 4th line.

  183. Lowetide says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 17m

    Tonight’s #Oilers forwards –> RT @Bob_Stauffer Hall-RNH-Gagner, Yakupov-Arcobello-Eberle, Hendricks-Gordon-Perron, Gazdic-Smyth-Jones

  184. Woodguy says:

    book¡je:
    WG – it’s not just the advanced stats that make this the best blog on the web, but the rational discussion general and the lack acceptance of the unjustified player X sucksnarratives.

    Agreed.

  185. russ99 says:

    Lowetide,

    I like it.

    Hendricks – Gordon – Perron is the closest we’ve gotten to a shutdown line in a long time.

  186. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Seems to me this is a nice little juxtaposition to clarify the issue.

    “Being a character” and “making other players laugh” are pretty ephemeral things in the cold hard business of hockey.

    Yet if what Strudwick/Common are saying is true, the situation would go like this:

    Being a character -> making players laugh -> keeping things lose -> team doesn’t come out flat in the first -> team doesn’t give up a bushel of shots and goals early -> short-term Corsi close improves -> long-term goals and win-loss improves

    Ephemeral intangible quality.Check.
    Measurable and quantifiable result.Check.

    That’s how it’s supposed to work.

    Exactly

  187. Andy P says:

    Lowetide:
    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 17m

    Tonight’s #Oilers forwards –> RT @Bob_Stauffer Hall-RNH-Gagner, Yakupov-Arcobello-Eberle, Hendricks-Gordon-Perron, Gazdic-Smyth-Jones

    Could Hendricks be Joensuu’s replacement?

  188. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I got a lot of problems with you people!

    My favorite was Pronger getting them to reno the work out room because he couldn’t raise a barbell above his head without hitting the ceiling.

  189. Lowetide says:

    Andy P: Could Hendricks be Joensuu’s replacement?

    No. Hendricks is a 4th liner, Eakins will find out.

  190. stevezie says:

    It’s been awhile sine I’ve streamed. Anyone want to save me some time looking and give me a good link?

  191. Lowetide says:

    Like Scrivens so far, looks calm and bigger than I thought he would.

  192. stevezie says:

    Hendricks got in someone’s face. Q.E.D

  193. book¡je says:

    I don’t think the “good in the room” stat quantifies well because each game is a single case so it’s always small sample size. Furthermore the impact might be small. Finally, it’s easily confounded.

  194. G Money says:

    Lowetide:
    Like Scrivens so far, looks calm and bigger than I thought he would.

    Not even one period of one game and he’s already drawn more penalties than half the forwards!

  195. stevezie says:

    These Minnesota guys are, in the most basic sense, stupid.

    They are criticizing the Oilers for using their top picks on the best player available instead of taking d-men. They agreed that, from all appearances, they made the right call each year as to which player was best, but still, “you need d-men.”

    So… what? They should have conjured a defenceman up? Willed one into existence? Deferred the pick until a year when a good d-man was there?

  196. book¡je says:

    G Money: Not even one period of one game and he’s already drawn more penalties than half the forwards!

    That was an awesome move – clothslines a guy and draws a penalty.

  197. book¡je says:

    Welcome to the Oilers Ben – hope you got thick skin!

  198. Rebilled says:

    That happens.

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