RENEWAL

In May of 2011, before the Nuge draft, the Edmonton Oilers signed Stu MacGregor to a three year contract. Since 2008 (MacGregor’s first selection as head scout was Jordan Eberle) this blog called him “the Magnificent Bastard” and have remained boosters of his procurement department.

A new GM brings change, and the current scouting staff has been together for a few years now. The track record (depending on who you talk to) ranges from “the worst ever” to “very good” and every stop in between. Some articles about the era are available here and here.

The first round picks during MacGregor’s era have been stunning (Eberle, Paajarvi, Hall, Nuge, Klefbom, Yak, Nurse), and I give the staff full marks for the Eberle, Paajarvi and Nurse selections. The #1 overalls fall under “you don’t get credit for getting it right, only crap for making an error” category but I think the staff did well full stop.

THE NEXT TEST, SECOND ROUND

As the second round picks begin making their way to the NHL (Anton Lander got a head start, but that’s okay we’ll adjust) I’d like to find a line in the sand we can all agree on. I have a couple of candidates:

  • The Scott Cullen version: He estimated the success rate (100 NHL games or more) to be 28% back in 2009. I’m not completely thrilled with the 100 game threshold, but do like the “or likely” portion where we don’t have to fret over every player–there’s a distinct finish line.
  • This look suggests a 2nd round pick has about a 25% chance at success and gives 200 games as the finish line.
  • Jason Gregor came to a conclusion of 23.7%, using 100 games here.

I welcome other studies, but it looks to me as though we might be able to use 25% and 200 games as a starting point, with Cullen’s “or likely” as an addition that allows us to measure the process “in-game”. Fair?

That set, let’s move on to the Oilers during the MacGregor era (2008-2013). We’re looking at one in four being a success (average) and anything more than that above average.

  • 2008: No second round selections
  • 2009: Anton Lander
  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick
  • 2010: Martin Marincin
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton
  • 2011: David Musil
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz
  • 2013: Marco Roy

7 players taken in the second round, 2008-2013. Using the 25% success rate, we should expect 1.75 of these players to become NHLers. Using the five year rule, there are no players who we can “judge” from this round, as the 2008 draft (the only year that has clicked the 5 year tumbler) didn’t have a second round selection. However, we have the Cullen rule (“or likely”) and we have good and bad arrows (and they can inform us about a player).

  • Very bad arrows:
  • Bad arrows: Curtis Hamilton
  • Lukewarm arrows: David Musil
  • Good arrows: Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick, Mitchell Moroz, Marco Roy
  • Very good arrows: Martin Marincin
  • Covered the bet (or likely):

I’ve moved some players around since our last look, Marincin has very good arrows at this point. Curtis Hamilton is counted as a bad arrow, although his recent performance before his injury is encouraging.

Fair? I’m open to tweaking and welcome input.

Now, back to the matter at hand. MacGregor’s contract is up (as I understand it) at the end of the 2014 NHL entry draft. Bob Green is in the picture now and that may change things, and one imagines the individual scouts have to be signed as well.

marincin common

2008-13 DRAFT (NHLers)

  1. Jordan Eberle 246, 85-111-196
  2. Taylor Hall 216, 83-109-192
  3. Magnus Paajarvi 193, 30-34-64
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 152, 35-78-113
  5. Nail Yakupov 95, 26-22-48
  6. Anton Lander 79, 2-5-7
  7. Teemu Hartikainen 52, 6-7-13
  8. Martin Marincin 14, 0-0-0
  9. Tyler Pitlick 3, 1-0-1
  10. Phil Cornet 2, 0-1-1
  11. Johan Motin 1, 0-0-0

KLEFBOM

Oscar Klefbom earned some nice reviews from Jonathan Willis and Todd Nelson earlier this month.

  • Nelson:  “You’re always worried about a guy coming back off injury, if he can get back to the level he was at just before he was hurt. He played three good games before he got injured, but tonight he was exceptional. Hopefully that continues and he has that consistency because he was a horse out there. I talked to Gerry and we both agreed ‘let’s put him out there as much as we can, because he’s playing so well and he’s a horse and he can handle it.’”

-

The positives for the MacGregor staff are:

  • A run of first round picks that are the foundation of an outstanding NHL team.
  • The Eberle pick at 22 is a home run by any measure.
  • The second round picks, taken as a group, look on target or better (Marincin and Lander may end up covering the bet on their own).
  • The 2010 draft came to life this season (Marincin, Pitlick, even Hamilton)
  • Klefbom is coming around and lately has been better than that.
  • Solid picks outside the first two rounds include Teemu Hartikainen, Dillon Simpson, Tobias Rieder, Martin Gernat, Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev, Greg Chase.

I’ll bet they renew MBS and staff. We wait.

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51 Responses to "RENEWAL"

  1. geowal says:

    The first round picks during MacGregor’s era have been stunning (Eberle, Paajarvi, Hall, Nuge, Yak, Nurse), and I give the staff full marks for the Eberle, Paajarvi and Nurse selections.

    Missed Klefbom in this part.

  2. russ99 says:

    I’m hopeful Stu can continue on in his position, as he’s done well outside of the “Lucic hunt” mandate he was given to work with at times.

    Not sure what Green brings to the table, other than to continue to over value Oil Kings to the extent where we dump cost-effective NHL assets to do so.

  3. geowal says:

    I think its optimistic to call Lander a “very good arrow”. While he has a large # of games played, if we all agree (and it seems all do) that in his first season he should have only played maybe half as many games before mercifully being sent down, we’d be left with him having played 51 games. Even at his current 79 games he has a whopping 7 points. I’ll give him a “good” arrow simply for having achieved playing a fair number of games as a high 2nd round pick. To me a very good arrow you would project as being a serviceable nhl-er (or pro, for the very late rounds). I’m not convinced we won’t see Lander in Europe next year.

  4. ashley says:

    This pick will be high, and I’d like to see us trade it. The draft lacks top end depth. Reinhart sounds like he is projecting to be a winger. Ekblad may be some years away. We needed to be this bad last year.

    If we finish:

    28. CGY
    29. EDM
    30. BUF

    with no change at the lottery, maybe CGY is interested in picking 2OV and 3OV for Monahan.

  5. 8p0intgame says:

    What if the Oilers choose the second player selected in the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts with the first overall picks?

    2008 – Eberle
    2009 – Paajarvi
    2010 – Seguin
    2011 – Landeskog
    2012 – Murray
    2013 – Nurse

    And if the Paajarvi traded still happened and assuming the Oilers pick Ekblad in 2014.

    Seguin-Landeskog-Eberle
    Gagner-Perron-xxx

    Nurse-Ekblad
    Murray-xxx

  6. ashley says:

    8p0intgame,

    Are you saying that Seguin-Landeskog-Murray is better than RNH-Hall-Yakupov? I’m all for looking at things objectively, but I’d take the latter every day of the week. Each of of those three players is better than the #2 picks, and all together exponentially so.

  7. cabbiesmacker says:

    ashley:

    with no change at the lottery, maybe CGY is interested in picking 2OV and 3OV for Monahan.

    You won’t touch Monahan for that offer unless you have pics of Burke and King in an ovine 3 way.

  8. stephen sheps says:

    I very rarely do the “post other people’s stuff on your page” thing and certainly don’t want to continue to fan the flames of discontent regarding the whole fire lowe thing, but I saw something over at puckdaddy too good not to repost (apologies if someone beat me to it. I left the 1st thread of the day after the Heidegger conversation, fighting my urge not to counter with something from Levinas, and never read through the comments on the mid-day post.) Anyhoo: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/puck-daddy-presents-kiss-lowe-frustrated-oilers-fans-201608374–nhl.html

    Also, LT, kudos to you for being so darn prolific. What’s your secret? I’m in dissertation hell right now and on good days I’m lucky to hit 1000 words, bad days more like 450. How do you do it?

    Agreed RE: Lander. I see plenty of good arrows with that player too. I just hope he graduates with the Oilers, not somewhere else.

  9. cabbiesmacker says:

    ashley:
    8p0intgame,

    Are you saying that Seguin-Landeskog-Murray is better than RNH-Hall-Yakupov?I’m all for looking at things objectively, but I’d take the latter every day of the week. Each of of those three players is better than the #2 picks, and all together exponentially so.

    Hall’s the best player of that bunch right now but that’s about all that tips it Edm;s way. I’d probably take Seguin and Landeskog for RNH and Yakupov, hang up the phone and laugh myself into hysteria but maybe that’s just me.

  10. VanOil says:

    Tyler Myers is the best player on the ice tonight in Buffalo. Reports out of Buffalo have him returning to his early promise. Maybe this frees up Ehrhoff to bridge the gap in EDM until the kids live up to there promise. I don’t know if we have anything Buffalo would want or need.

  11. nycoil says:

    LT,

    I love the premise, but believe your reasoning has a flaw: 31st overall should have a higher success rate than the average 2nd round pick. It has to. It’s basically a late 1st. Much closer to that than it is close to the success rate of a 60th overall pick. I’d like to assign different probabilities to buckets of, say 15 picks or so? I don’t know the best solution.

    Someone much smarter than I could maybe help here.

    I know “see him bad” is not a good way to go, but I can’t help but feel that Stu’s high 2nd rounders (Lander, Musil, Pitlick) haven’t been good picks relative to what we might expect. Ironically the later 2nd round selection of Marincin has been better.

  12. 8p0intgame says:

    ashley,

    No, I just thought the lineup would look more balanced that way… Until I realized Murray is left handed like Nurse.

  13. nycoil says:

    VanOil:
    Tyler Myers is the best player on the ice tonight in Buffalo. Reports out of Buffalo have him returning to his early promise. Maybe this frees up Ehrhoff to bridge the gap in EDM until the kids live up to there promise. I don’t know if we have anything Buffalo would want or need.

    Recapture risk is too high for Buffalo unless they are offered the moon.

  14. stevezie says:

    VanOil,

    Some decent defensive prospects. That’s all we have. This team was very effectively torn down and has had no help from drafting outside the first round before Marincin showed up*. This makes trading hard. I would be floating every D prospect not named Nurse for Erhoff, but I can’t see them taking a Simpson/Gernat combo for a top-pairing guy. I’m all for trading draft picks, but we need to keep a couple, right?

    *I don’t know if I want to blame the scouts for that- I think getting Jamie Benn in round five has a lot more to do with luck than scouting. Everyone always talks about Detroit’s great scouting, but after depth selecting Daysyuk they had a tidy little dry spell. Did their scouts prescriptions expire and it took awhile to change the lenses? Or is luck a major factor here?
    The book Future Greats and Heartbreaks was a great read, but I couldn’t side with its mocking of Tampa Bay for cheaping out on scouting and just using the central list. If I’m a cash-strapped team that sounds like a great budget saver.

  15. Woodguy says:

    I think its important to remember that the Head Scout answers to the GM.

    The GM will set the tone for the draft and will get into specifics on individual players, even later in the draft.

    For those who point to 2009 with the 3rd round selections of Hesketh and Abney (which are historically bad picks in the 3rd round) as evidence of Stu being more bastard than magnificent , I point to 2013.

    Two 3rd round picks again and Stu grabs Yakimov at 83 and Slepyshev at 88.

    So the same Head Scout who picked Hesketh and Abney picked Yakimov and Slepyshev in virtually the same spots.

    Do not discount the Tambellini factor and his bathtub deep understanding of anything.

    Tamblellini was a Pakled and probably looked at the height and weight of players available, used his green crayon to underline Hesketh and Abney’s names and said to Stu: “Make us bigger”

    Stu’s later rounds in the Tambellini years show what he’s capable of, and the early returns on 2013 are excellent.

  16. Pouzar says:

    Wow Tuomo Ruutu’s icetime has really fallen off a cliff the last few games.

    continue on

  17. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:

    Do not discount the Tambellini factor and his bathtub deep understanding of anything.

    Hahaha. Man, that was funny AND Pakleds!

  18. sliderule says:

    I think you can throw out the 2011-13 selections in second round as hardly any team has them
    even play in nhl.

    If you take 10 games as being a minimum the ducks have 3 of their four picks playing that..75 percent.

    You have the kings with three out of three. 100 percent

    The oiler have lander and Marincin which would be 50 percent.

    Ii guess you could say that’s better than 28 percent.

    If you are in high school you will graduate but maybe not get a job.

    If you dig deeper in draft the oiler scouting staff is no better than bottom third.

    The oiler head scout should be living in Edmonton.

    If you owned a company why would you have your CEO or CFO live in the boonies.

    I would relate the head scout of an NHL team as being at least as important as a those executives.

  19. spoiler says:

    Is there a defenseman in the league faster than Letang? Holy Jesus.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Bad Corgi catchin up with the Leaves tonight.

  21. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Too early to judge the big man yet on his picks. Lets give him another two years to prove his worth. Stu is a great guy to have picking in the top 5. He has lots of experience separating guys like Taylor and Nuge from the pack. From what I hear he wanted Murray also. Maybe ownership should keep their mouth shut next time and let the pros pick the player. I’d trade Yak for Murray in a heartbeat. Yak is high maintenance.

  22. godot10 says:

    ashley:
    This pick will be high, and I’d like to see us trade it.The draft lacks top end depth.Reinhart sounds like he is projecting to be a winger.Ekblad may be some years away.We needed to be this bad last year.

    In recent history, Doughty, Bouwmeester, and Ekblad (I think) are the only draft eligible D that have played significant roles for Canada at the World Junior tournament.

    How long did it take Doughty and Bouwmeester?

  23. justDOit says:

    Woodguy,

    Applying some pack mentality analysis to the dynamics of the front office during that period, I can see ST trying too hard to please the big dog (KL). This would explain all sorts of things, and still not directly implicate Lowe in these bewildering decisions. He’s just an @ssh*le, who scared Tambi a bit – or at least intimidated him.

  24. RexLibris says:

    Hey LT,

    I ran numbers on the draft this past summer, from ’79 to ’08, and used the 200 gp (or likely) as the benchmark. Taking each draft year as an event in and of itself, and then contrasting each franchise’s history year over year against the field, I came up with a rough success percentage of 18% to 19% per year.

    I didn’t get around to breaking it down by round, because I wanted to determine what the average was for draft success, locate the teams that have the best record, and see if the myths about “strong” and “weak” drafts held up.

    Some fascinating things turned up.

    2003 was a very nice year, but 1979 and 1980 blow it out of the water. This was obviously heavily impacted by the rule changes surrounding the amateur draft and opening up “professional” players to the NHL Entry Draft system, but still the number of HOF players taken in those two years is absolutely breathtaking. Teams that flunked those early years generally spent the next decade getting their arse handed to them.

    Edmonton’s historical average was somewhere around 16%, Calgary was a shade higher at 17%.

    The league worst, and by a wide margin, was Tampa Bay at around 7%.

    Best were Montreal and Anaheim in the low 20s.

    If you’re interested I’ll polish up the numbers and send them to you. I left it in a bit of a mess, but the raw data there is fascinating to look at.

  25. Rondo says:

    Buffalo most likely will not take Ekblad they are loaded with Dmen Zadorov Ristolainen Mark Pysyk Jake McCabe and Tyler Meyers. They will bluff of course

    Ekblad will fall to #2 .

  26. Woodguy says:

    godot10: In recent history, Doughty, Bouwmeester, and Ekblad (I think) are the only draft eligible D that have played significant roles for Canada at the World Junior tournament.

    How long did it take Doughty and Bouwmeester?

    Luke Schenn, Karl Alzner, Danny Syvret, Ryan Ellis, and Ryan Murray also played for Canada at the World Juniors before they were drafted.

  27. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Hey LT,

    I ran numbers on the draft this past summer, from ’79 to ’08, and used the 200 gp (or likely) as the benchmark. Taking each draft year as an event in and of itself, and then contrasting each franchise’s history year over year against the field, I came up with a rough success percentage of 18% to 19% per year.

    I didn’t get around to breaking it down by round, because I wanted to determine what the average was for draft success, locate the teams that have the best record, and see if the myths about “strong” and “weak” drafts held up.

    Some fascinating things turned up.

    2003 was a very nice year, but 1979 and 1980 blow it out of the water. This was obviously heavily impacted by the rule changes surrounding the amateur draft and opening up “professional” players to the NHL Entry Draft system, but still the number of HOF players taken in those two years is absolutely breathtaking. Teams that flunked those early years generally spent the next decade getting their arse handed to them.

    Edmonton’s historical average was somewhere around 16%, Calgary was a shade higher at 17%.

    The league worst, and by a wide margin, was Tampa Bay at around 7%.

    Best were Montreal and Anaheim in the low 20s.

    If you’re interested I’ll polish up the numbers and send them to you. I left it in a bit of a mess, but the raw data there is fascinating to look at.

    Love to see it

  28. The Duke of Hafford says:

    LT, with the draft in Philadelphia this year and their want for a defenceman, do you see them trying to make a splash? If Ekblad is available when the Oilers are drafting, would you trade Ekblad for Couturier +?

  29. Lowetide says:

    The Duke of Hafford:
    LT, with the draft in Philadelphia this year and their want for a defenceman, do you see them trying to make a splash?If Ekblad is available when the Oilers are drafting, would you trade Ekblad for Couturier +?

    It’s certainly possible. Snider is a lunatic.

  30. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Why does everyone think Oilers will have the #2 pick? There are the standings and then the Lottery.

  31. Hammers says:

    I still feel the #1 pick has to be traded and hopefully for the experienced 1- 2-3 “d” we need . if a player has to go with that pick so be it .(Nurse May have to go back to junior another year so don’t draft Ekblad .) Problem is the better teams who may be able to trade a “D” won’t do it now due to playoffs .That leaves the bottom 10 teams and if you look at Calgary , Buffalo , Florida as examples they all have a #1 or #2 “D” player that could work so would our 1st Plus any of Gags , Perron , Klefbom or Pitlick get us what we need or is that an overpayment . For me I would sooner that kind of payment than a UFA over 32-33 getting over paid at the tail end of there careers .

  32. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    Why does everyone think Oilers will have the #2 pick?There are the standings and then the Lottery.

    Oilers look like they’ll end up 30th, so will pick first or second. It could change, but I doubt they pick 4th.

  33. Rondo says:

    Personally I hope they do pick first, however I think Buffalo will pick #1 and I think Calgary will pick #2. Calgary will take Ekblad Just like they took Monahan.

  34. Andy P says:

    As much as I detest the poor play and the lack of passion, every call this team makes, seems to be a good call, even the two 1/2 trades that resulted in the 3 goalies and the 4C.

    The only action this fan base will trigger will be to get Katz to move his team elsewhere. He’s not dumping Lowe and that’s that.

    I am further encouraged by the fact that they will likely change assistants over the summer, I hope they clean house from Acton through Smith and Bucky to Chabot. C lean sweep, hand picked by Eakins.

    This rebuild has gone on forever however we cant blame MacT and Eakins for what they inherited. I don’t like Eakins’ arrogance but they quit on Renney and Eakins too, so in a way they got what they deserved, if, as I think, the core ran the others out of town exactly the same way.

    I don’t think we will see the real Eakins until he gets his own assistants, and we need to give MacT the chanced to add players. I think the reason we have not had the #1′s we are looking for, is a combination of overpricing, and unwillingness of anyone with a clear head, other options and a family base outside of Edmonton to come to this career vortex, so ease up, MacT is capable, and doing as much as can be expected of an Edmonton GM.

    So I think we do all need to back off the vitriol. Give MacT, Eakins and Crew another year, and if it is too painful to watch, Get on your honey do list, go for a walk, spend time with your kids, find a hobby to spend your ticket money on, do something.

    But is we push much more on the Lowe must go stuff etc, it’s quite possible that Katz will just pick up his toys and leave town, even with his new shiny Jolly Roger under construction, remember there is no clause keeping him here and he ain’t paying for construction.

    Come back when they start showing consistency and effort, with a more balanced team than we have now.

  35. fifthcartel says:

    I think the Oil should be really considering Sam Bennett. Sounds like he could be that two-way tough skilled centre they need behind RNH. I think they would pick Ekblad, but could be risky.

  36. Ducey says:

    Andy P,

    The City got a 35 yr location agreement. The team isn’t going anywhere.

  37. Lois Lowe says:

    I like all of Ekblad, Bennet, and Draisaitl. The only upside to sucking the hind banana is that all the prospects are really worthwhile.

  38. gogliano says:

    Any ideas on who Buffalo might draft if they pick #1?

  39. Marc says:

    nycoil:
    LT,

    I love the premise, but believe your reasoning has a flaw: 31st overall should have a higher success rate than the average 2nd round pick. It has to. It’s basically a late 1st. Much closer to that than it is close to the success rate ofa 60th overall pick. I’d like to assign different probabilities to buckets of, say 15 picks or so? I don’t know the best solution.

    Someone much smarter than I could maybe help here.

    I know “see him bad” is not a good way to go, but I can’t help but feel that Stu’s high 2nd rounders(Lander, Musil, Pitlick) haven’t been good picks relative to what we might expect. Ironically the later 2nd round selection of Marincin has been better.

    There is very little evidence that this is true. You aren’t much more likely to get a player picking at the top of the second round than at the bottom.

    If you take a look at the last ten or fifteen years of second round picks, you can see that the distribution of both NHL players and good NHL players isn’t clustered at the top. It’s almost random.

  40. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Oilers will be 30th just because they are in the west and face tougher competition. Historically they also seem to fade even more in the second half. If that’s even possible.

  41. hunter1909 says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Oilers will be 30th just because they are in the west and face tougher competition.Historically they also seem to fade even more in the second half.If that’s even possible.

    lol

    They’re playing not to get injured, is all.

  42. Andy P says:

    Ducey:
    Andy P,

    The City got a 35 yr location agreement.The team isn’t going anywhere.

    The document I was able to find: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/agreement-for-edmonton-arena-passed-by-council-1.1327892

    states that there are 3 x 10 year optional lease extensions. Not sure what happens in the first 5, whether that is the construction period, or perhaps an initial 5 year lease.

    Either way I’d suggest that’s a long way from a no movement clause. The pulling power is
    1) Best deal in North America
    2) Katz doesn’t get pissed off enough at his franchise’s fan base to pack his boys back on the bus and take them elsewhere, including Quebec City.

    The only real commitment I can see, is to a set of optional renewals that will ultimately lock him into a set of 10 year leases, one lease at a time. At the end of any of the leases he has the option to vacate without penalty.

  43. Andy P says:

    Reading further, if things head south, they have the option of reverting to the Rexall lease terms. But I’m not sure how the option to renew constitutes a commitment to pay $141, I lack the time and interest to go through this in any detail, I have better things to do than second guess the highly trained professionals that negotiated this on our behalf.

  44. Captain Smarmy says:

    Andy P,

    I’m not sure what point you’re going for anymore. Are you saying that even with a new state of the art arena that if the fanbase gets too pissy about the team being terrible that Katz will throw a tantrum and move it to #Insert worse location here#?

    That he would sooner move the franchise then fire his bumbling president? Not sure what that pressure would look like. Although it would be cool to see fans with pitchforks.

    Regardless, the day he moves there will be a better NHL team ready to move into the plum location that is Edmonton and if Bettman put the breaks on the Islanders or Devils coming here then trust me Edmonton you’re better off breaking up with the NHL.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Bob’s List:

    Del Colle, huh. Interesting. That was quite a jump.

    It is always amazing to me how much the scouts value size and streak performances. It seemed obvious to me that after the WJC Draisaitl was going to drop some, but then Hockey New put him #1. but they are now the outlier and everyone else is jumping ship. It will be fun to watch.

    The other thing is Nylander. Amazing to see him drop so far in such a short time. Reminds me of De La Rose. Dropped a lot too, completely different player… but Swedish…

  46. sliderule says:

    This is an extremely important topic on which there are very few posts.

    I think the reason for this is its so hard to evaluate how a team is doing in draft until it’s too late.I posted a list of teams that have really done well over period 2003-2010..topping the list were the Kings ,Blues and Ducks who had 16 and 17 players from that draft playing in NHL.All those teams are reaping the benefit of this drafting.

    The two worst drafting teams were the Jets/thrashers and the Flames.I would say that doesn’t bode well for them.

    The oilers had 10 total picks playing which put the at top of bottom third.

    When I hear things like 28 percent of second rounders make 100 games my eyes glaze over.It would seem that by saying this it’s partly luck and if you beat that mediocre grade you have been somewhat good and a little lucky..You have to wonder if Stu doesn’t value these picks because he thinks that three is so little chance of hitting a player.Comment he made on oil change third or fourth doesn’t matter makes me think that he doesn’t value the later picks.The good teams in the west like ducks Kings and blues value these picks as they have been able to find a lot of players there .

    I think that oilers should require Stu to give them an outline of how he is going to change the oiler scouting to identify players thru all rounds that can help the oilers.If the plan is good keep him and make the changes he should recommend.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    You can’t simply divorce the care structure of Dasein from death, or from finitude, throwness, falling-prey, anxiety (and other attunements, ie., not merely “moods”), etc.

    It’s in there and powerfully so.

    And, as Spinoza says: “A free man thinks of death least of all things, and his wisdom is a meditation of life, not of death.” (Ethics IV P67)

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Scouting:

    1) My problems firmly reside in the Pro Scouting dept. I have no problem re-upping Stu.

    2) On the amateur and pro Euro side, I’d like to see them add a least one more guy. By my count they have 2, maybe 3 guys working Europe… and Musil’s time is pretty divided IIRC.

    3) Bob Green probably sits in on the draft eligible conversations, but I hope he isn’t taking a lead. I’ve said it a couple of times: He is probably the greatest acquisition this team made in the last 12 months: primarily because his hiring entrenched MacT’s last job as a permanent one.

    In a cap world finding unsigned, undrafted college and euro players is going to be crucial. We need to corner this market and get early reads on the next Dekeyser and Raanta and find ways to sign them.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 39s
    Breaking news: San Jose Sharks have signed Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton to 3-year extensions.

  50. Andy P says:

    Captain Smarmy:
    Andy P,

    I’m not sure what point you’re going for anymore. Are you saying that even with a new state of the art arena that if the fanbase gets too pissy about the team being terrible that Katz will throw a tantrum and move it to #Insert worse location here#?

    That he would sooner move the franchise then fire his bumbling president? Not sure what that pressure would look like. Although it would be cool to see fans with pitchforks.

    Regardless, the day he moves there will be a better NHL team ready to move into the plum location that is Edmonton and if Bettman put the breaks on the Islanders or Devils coming here then trust me Edmonton you’re better off breaking up with the NHL.

    Yes, I think he has a higher regard for the BOTB, Lowe included, than for this city or the fans of this franchise, based on his behaviour. He’s already moved his family to Vancouver, and didn’t he relocate his HQ to Toronto? So if the fans revolt viciously enough, and stay away fro his shiny new arena in enough quantity, and he doesn’t make the money he thought he would, I’m saying that the location agreement is structured in a way that he can abandon at certain times, alternately revert to the Rexall Place structure of agreement.

    I also hope that in the event of his departure we would a better team, or a team, but I wouldn’t be holding my breath. We are not the center of the universe. My other point being that the location agreement is more a renewable lease than anything else and does not contain a no movement clause which he never signed. He just let the prior one run out.

  51. DeadmanWaking says:

    stephen sheps:
    Also, LT, kudos to you for being so darn prolific. What’s your secret? I’m in dissertation hell right now and on good days I’m lucky to hit 1000 words, bad days more like 450. How do you do it?

    Lowetide without Lowetide would be like Rick’s without Rick. It’s what’s in the blood multiplied by the golden goose of elbow grease.

    Dissertations are, for the most part, a terrible writing process. Established, prolific writers tend to live extremely structured lives, which the university environment does encourage, especially not in the humanities where the outrageously overqualified polish apple compost while subsisting on the faintest hope of aspiring to indentured servitude.

    One view of procrastination (I perhaps invented this for self-serving purposes) is that it’s a passive-aggressive self-insurrection against aspiring to miserly rewards. Much of life in academia is truly horrid, more so than ever among the lower ranks: outrageously long hours, poor wages, no security, no roots, no respect, many supplicants vying for ever fewer promotions.

    The brain tries to balance this by magnifying the carrot. Pretty soon it figures you must be trying to win the Nobel Peace Prize with your first publication, given the ratio of sweat input to prospective reward extracted.

    Look up. Look way up. Now focus your binoculars. There’s the bar your subconscious brain believes you are aiming to clear. The alternative is to be realistic. Good luck with that. Passion is the life blood of good writing.

    In most fields, it’s a very difficult ego compromise.

    That said, the secret is fairly well known. Wake up, quaff your essentials, and head straight to your writing desk. Write at the top of your intelligence for three to four hours, then put whatever you got aside and call it a day. Your creative bolt is now shot. The morning thing is important–though some manage to do it differently–because of the relationship between sleep and memory. You have something first thing in the morning you won’t have later in the day. If you’re too bleary to extract this something, that’s a pity. Change your life. Find a way.

    Afternoons are spent editing other publications you have in the queue (or shuffling recent additions to your current work with lite stitch-work). Evenings are spent reading broadly. Only the best writers if you can manage it. Ideally these are the writers so good at their craft that you can read every word out loud and not find yourself the least bit bored. This primes your brain to bring forth your best words the next morning.

    Don’t force yourself to think about your main work in the afternoon or evening unless it seeks you out. If for some reason you’re moved to write 5000 words in a single day, go with it. It won’t happen often. People in grad school get so close to their thesis that it suffocates them. Write three hours first thing every day, rain or shine, end of guilt. I’m not saying it’s practical. I’m only saying it works. There’s very little overlap between what works and what’s practical in the university setting. That’s part of the test about whether you’ll later fit in.

    Hemingway wrote 500 words per day, then he was spent. He worked those 500 words like the sides of beef in Rocky (stay with it until the last shot).

    Once you’ve sorted matters with your psyche that you’re not actually trying to win the Nobel Peace Prize with your first publication, you have to win a second battle against internal censorship. Your editor will try to barge into the process. Sometimes it doesn’t play fair. You resist and accept what you have on tap. You keep your feet moving and you don’t dwell on imperfections. Then your internal editor starts streaming images from your subconscious about every deadline or appointment you’ve ever missed, and you develop a fixation on your wristwatch (or fistphone) that would make a supermodel green with envy over the attention she fails to command.

    Established writers fight back. They go “no, this process worked for the last book, and the one before that, so fuck off with that shit”.

    Graduate students don’t have that advantage. They’re usually rookie GMs writhing with insecurities about the size of the project they’ve undertaken.

    Separate writing from editing as much as you can. When I’m in creative mode, 95% of my time and attention is devoted to finding the next sentence, or just the next word.

    At first this will induce a nearly permanent state of cringe-hood. You’ll cover entire pages with clunky sentences. Eventually this discipline pays off. After about ten years of approaching the act of composition in this way, I got to where my next sentence was almost always good enough to capture the bones.

    Allowing yourself to edit while you compose is like feeding your dog scraps off the kitchen table. We looked after one pooch who barely ate a kibble bit for the first three days as she tried to train us in her preferred ritual. She made about 600 urgent round trips–illustrated with ICBM eye contact–between wherever she found our feet and the corner of the dining room table where she knew we had stowed her little bag of dog treats. Editing as you write quickly becomes that dog.

    You can edit later in the day when you’re tired and stupid. This is enormously time consuming. If your dissertation is the largest work you’ve tackled so far, your insecurity is probably more tied into the creative process than the assembly process, so you’ll give is short shrift and keep pounding on creative well long after you’ve pumped it dry.

    If your studs are good, you can probably dial your stress level up to electric-chair-sound-check (level II) in the final week or three and pump in 50 half-page passages of insulating foam, and your thesis will hardly suffer.

    In the composition process, fight the good fight for vivid language. If clarity makes you wince, you don’t know your shit, and the writing process itself is not your problem.

    That’s his other gift. Lowetide knows the ropes.

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