THE MINORS AND WHEN TO WALK AWAY FROM A PLAYER

Curtis Hamilton drew a point again last night (now 3, 4-1-5 this week) and it brings two ideas together: that 5-year window for prospects to show their stuff (Hamilton’s +5 after draft is summer ’15) and measuring success in minor league development. Ordinarily, that 5-year window would include two years of junior and three years AHL, but sometimes players turn pro early or later and five years is a really good line in the sand.

I like to use Detroit when talking about the minor leagues, I’ve compared these kids a lot over the years and so have some familiarity. Let’s take a 5-year period and see if we can find something—anything—that can give us hope for the slow developers and injured men from 2010 (Hamilton, Pitlick and Martindale).

The 2008-09 Grand Rapids Griffins boasted some nice rookies, led by 21-year old college grad Justin Abdelkader. Abdelkader was a 2nd rd pick in 2005, so in many ways is a nice comp for Pitlick, Hamilton and Martindale: similar draft number, 5 years earlier, the big difference being he arrived at age 21. His AHL rookie scoring rate (.684) and size (6.01, 212) suggested that if Abdelkader was going to have an NHL career, it would be as a two-way player. His resume had some nice things (agitator, could play center or wing) and he adjusted quickly to the AHL game (he made the AHL All-rookie team in 2008-09).  He arrived as a semi-regular in 2009-10 and moved up the depth chart until he arrived at the projected role (two-way depth forward who could chip in offensively) and that’s a useful player.

Since 2008-09, the Oilers haven’t had very many AHL rookies who have scored at Abdelkader’s .684 rookie rate. Here’s the list:

  1. Toni Rajala 12-13 (.978) is in no way related to Abdelkader but is a very skilled player we may see in the NHL someday. A pint-sized skill player, something happened for the organization to let him go so quickly, and it’s a damn shame Rajala isn’t a part of the current Oiler depth chart.
  2. Mark Arcobello 10-11 (.846) An older AHL rookie (22, one year past the Red Wing) he is similar to Abdelkader in that he’s a college guy and that he hit the ground running in the AHL. The size difference is an issue, but Arco was a better offensive player off the hop. Abdelkader had the far better draft pedigree.
  3. Rob Hisey 09-10 (.676) Undersized skill C who was 24 by the time he arrived in the AHL and delivered a fine season.Now in Europe.
  4. Teemu Hartikainen 10-11 (.636) big winger with speed issues, he was recalled to Edmonton as one of MacT’s first transactions but didn’t deliver at all. He’s still in the organization, and some of us hold out hope for a return.

So that’s 4 ‘in the range’ with Abdelkader, I think both Arco and Harski are “somewhat similar” as prospects and at least one of them does look like he might have an NHL career.

rajala11

There’s another way to approach this subject, and that’s “age” specific. In Rob Vollman’s new book Hockey Abstract he talks about these players (I’m quoting more than I normally would from the book, but it’s been out awhile and gives me a chance to suggest you buy the book, it’s such an interesting read)

  • Vollman: The first group, aged 19–22, are young players either getting some extra seasoning in the AHL or being kept down for contract-related purposes. As a group, based on the age-relatedperformance in the graph above, they should use a translation factor of not 0.45 but rather 0.53 when they ultimately make the move up to the NHL. This is partly because of the natural development of younger players, but also because they’re more likely to be legitimate NHL players instead of more typical replacement-level call-ups.

We’re not going to worry about NHLE’s today, but I wanted to frame it as a ’19-to-22 year old’ cluster and see if we can get an idea about the three amigo’s and whether or not it’s too late. Here’s both Detroit and Edmonton 2008-09 through this season, and all 19-to-22 year old forward seasons of  .400 or more (20 game minimum).

2008-09 GRAND RAPIDS AND SPRINGFIELD FORWARDS OVER .400/PPG (19-22)

  1. Francis Pare (21) .762
  2. Evan McGrath (22) .691
  3. Justin Abdelkader (22) .684
  4. Darren Helm (21) .672
  5. Matias Ritola (21) .631
  6. Gilbert Brule (21) .615
  7. Rob Schremp (22) .609
  8. Corey Emmerton (20) .507
  9. Slava Trukhno (21) .464
  10. Bryan Lerg (22) .404

Interesting to see the four Oiler prospects appear in the lower portion of the list, this was the period when Edmonton was cobbling together their minor league system as they left the ‘lending players’ era behind. Pare scores the best, but is undersized and that’s a lesson to all of us who fall in love with smaller minor league skill players: every team has one and the really good versions have NHL careers, but many more fall by the wayside (deserved or not). McGrath also missed, but the wins on this list are all Detroit’s: Abdelkader, Helms and Emmerton.

2009-10 GRAND RAPIDS AND SPRINGFIELD FORWARDS OVER .400/PPG (19-22)

  1. Justin Abdelkader (22) .727
  2. Matias Ritola (22) .575
  3. Tomas Tatar (18) .552
  4. Jan Mursak (21) .532
  5. Francis Pare (22) .506
  6. Cory Emmerton (21) .487

This time there are six Red Wings and no Oilers. Abdelkader moves the dial and Tatar shows up at 18 (!!!) and posts a good number. Emmeron runs in place, while Pare struggles compared to his previous season.

arcobello2

2010-11 GRAND RAPIDS AND OKC FORWARDS OVER .400/PPG (19-22)

  1. Mark Arcobello (22) .846
  2. Tomas Tatar (19) .814
  3. Jan Mursak (22) .648
  4. Teemu Hartikainen (20) .636
  5. Cory Emmerton (22) .585

Just three for the Red Wings this time, and Joakim Andersson doesn’t reach the .400/ppg range (.278/age 21). Tatar is clearly talented enough by now to be an obvious NHL candidate, while Mursak plays in the tweener department and Emmerton improves from his first two seasons.

Oilers have two in the group, and Arcobello is the first really good AHL performer in this five year glance.

2011-2012 GRAND RAPIDS AND OKC FORWARDS OVER .400/PPG (19-22)

  1. Gustav Nyquist (22) 1.04
  2. Tomas Tatar (20) .763
  3. Magnus Paajarvi (20) .735
  4. Joakim Andersson (22) .699
  5. Teemu Hartikainen (21) .628
  6. Phil Cornet (21) .552

A nice group for both teams. Nyquist arrives and plays at above 1/1 (age 22) and Tatar actually goes backwards from his 19-year-old season. Paajarvi shows himself to be a little shy offensively compared to other top 10 forward picks, but his range of skills makes him a bona fide prospect. Andersson is interesting in the same way—he’s a guy teams can use because there are so many situations he can play in a game. Hartikainen runs in place, and Cornet really did have a nice season.

2012-13 GRAND RAPIDS AND OKC FORWARDS OVER .400/PPG (19-22)

  1. Toni Rajala (21) .978
  2. Tomas Tatar (21) .803
  3. Teemu Hartikainen (22) .787
  4. Phil Cornet (22) .717
  5. Landon Ferraro (21) .653
  6. Magnus Paajarvi (21) .526
  7. Riley Sheahan (20) .500
  8. Anton Lander (21) .425

Red Wings have a nice NHL prospect in Tatar, I don’t know how high he’ll fly but there’s probably a solid career there. Ferraro and Sheahan show up and give Detroit interesting options. Edmonton has flushed pretty much everyone on this list! Incredible. I should say this often happens when a new GM takes over, but we’re five years in to this little exercise and I’d wager the best numbers belong to this group. Rajala was released, Hartikainen is still a member of the organization on paper, Cornet and Paajarvi continue their careers in other cities and Lander is the last man standing. Disappointing.

lander11

2013-14 GRAND RAPIDS AND OKC FORWARDS OVER .400/PPG (19-22)

  1. Tomas Jurco (20) 1.00
  2. Anton Lander (22) .833
  3. Teemu Pulkkinen (21) .824
  4. Roman Horak (22) .684
  5. Riley Sheahan (21) .615
  6. Landon Ferraro (22) .548
  7. Mitch Callahan (22) .529
  8. Calle Jarnkrok (21) .471
  9. Curtis Hamilton (21) .444
  10. Ryan Martindale (21) .421
  11. Tyler Pitlick (21) .375

A lot to talk about here, let’s start with the Red Wings. Jurco is having a terrific second season, he was below .400 one year ago as a 19-year-old. Pulkkinen looks like a player, and Sheahan has moved up a little. I’m not sure what they have in Ferraro and Callahan, with Jarnkrok being often mentioned as a strong prospect.

On the Oiler side, Lander has developed well season over season over season if we look at his AHL numbers, that’s sort of a Detroit Red Wing progression(.425 to .833) so maybe they have a player there. Horak looks like a player with some promise too, especially considering his wonky development line (similar to Lander). Hamilton, Martindale and Pitlick are on the outskirts of show business, but maybe it’s not too late.

And I’d really like to see Hartikainen back in the fall, seems like there was a player there once upon a time. Oh, and Rajala? Leading his team in scoring over there.

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140 Responses to "THE MINORS AND WHEN TO WALK AWAY FROM A PLAYER"

  1. 719 says:

    What an excellent article, different from the usual that I read on the oil blogsphere.

    Did the Oilers retain Rajala’s rights? Or is he free to sign with any team?

  2. John Chambers says:

    How about some positive Oilers news to brighten everyone’s Saturday.

    In 2012 with the Barons, here are the ppg stats for a few current Oilers:
    Nugent Hokins – Baby Nuge was 1.05 ppg at 19 years of age
    Hallsie – 1.30 ppg coming back from surgery
    Schultz the younger – Are you kidding me? 1.4 ppg!!!!
    Jordan Eberle – at 22 years of age an incredible 1.5 ppg

    this team has one bright-ass future … If there was ever a concern.

  3. Lowetide says:

    719:
    What an excellent article, different from the usual that I read on the oil blogsphere.

    Did the Oilers retain Rajala’s rights?Or is he free to sign with any team?

    Rajala is free as a bird.

  4. russ99 says:

    John Chambers,

    That sure was fun to watch, but you have to wonder if the OKC lockout cakewalk was detrimental to those players, since prospects most often need challenges to progress.

    That’s why I’m against Yak going to OKC even if he were eligible to do so this year, he has nothing left to prove at that level and would put up similar numbers.

  5. Thiru says:

    Wouldn’t it have been nice to have Hartikainen this season? How about dealing one of Gags/Ebs for D and giving Rajala a shot?

    The Wings this year are showing that you can run younger guys with good AHL scoring rates against soft comp and be successful.

    This is what kills me about management — they have been killing this team and purging depth (Smid, Hartsky, Rajala, etc), for no reason. There is no precedent for this, just none.

    A guy like Rajala may have been able to give us what Tatar/Nyqvist are giving the Wings, but now we won’t know.

  6. sliderule says:

    In the draft years 2007 to 2010 if you look at players taken after first round who have played 20 games in nhl this year the oilers have one and that is Nash who plays for Carolina.

    The kings have 8 ,isles and Nashville have 6 ,Sharks,Dallas,Ottawa ,Devils 5.Then you have 4teams with 4 ,7 teams with 3,8 teams with 2 and 2 teams with 1 which includes the oilers.

    There are two teams below the oil Canucks and Jets with 0

    You can make what you want of it bad luck or shitty drafting but the oilers are bottom feeders at drafting as well as playing the game.

  7. Ryan says:

    Does anyone else remember the running joke in 2009-10 NHL Playoffs?

    What’s an Abdelkader?

    Abdelkader looked all-world on the one goal he scored for Detroit in the playoffs against San Jose IIRC.

  8. Ryan says:

    sliderule:
    In the draft years 2007 to 2010 if you look at players taken after first round who have played 20 games in nhl this year the oilers have one and that isNash who plays for Carolina.

    The kings have 8 ,isles and Nashville have 6 ,Sharks,Dallas,Ottawa ,Devils5.Then you have 4teams with 4 ,7 teams with 3,8 teams with 2and 2 teams with 1 which includes the oilers.

    Nicely articulated.

  9. Ryan says:

    sliderule,

    how many does Chicago have?

  10. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    In the draft years 2007 to 2010 if you look at players taken after first round who have played 20 games in nhl this year the oilers have one and that isNash who plays for Carolina.

    The kings have 8 ,isles and Nashvillehave 6 ,Sharks,Dallas,Ottawa ,Devils5.Then you have 4teams with 4 ,7 teams with 3,8 teams with 2and 2 teams with 1 which includes the oilers.

    There are two teams below the oil Canucks and Jets with 0

    You can make what you want of itbad luckor shitty drafting but the oilers are bottom feeders at drafting as well as playing the game.

    Nash was taken in the first round.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    OT:

    On Yakimov and others from foreign pro leagues:

    1) when can they sign? during current contracts, or do they have to wait until they expire?

    2) if he came over next year, would he be eligible for the AHL at 19, or would he have to play in the CHL and which would be the better option?

  12. WeirsBeard says:

    Good stuff. Love reading these rolling year over year pieces. One of the thoughts that springs to mind is how the clubs used their minor league veterans over this time period. OKC seems to have done very different things over the years – ie using AHL all stars then not, and now under MacT using less career AHLers I’d say and more demoted NHLers. I’m curious what Detroit does with their minor league club in this regard and if they have a more consisten lineup I the minors on average.

  13. GordM says:

    MacT is probably watching this TSN interview with the Reinhart brothers and all sorts of ideas are dancing in his head.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Rajala.

    I think MacT did the right thing. It looked like MacT and Rajala couldn’t come together on a deal (Rajala IIRC wanted a 1-way deal), so MacT set him free.

    I think that’s a real stand up option. Should have been done with Omark years ago.

    If you aren’t going to use a player, no need to hamper his salad days with contract messiness, let him try to find work elsewhere.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    OT:

    On Yakimov and others from foreign pro leagues:

    1) when can they sign? during current contracts, or do they have to wait until they expire?

    2) if he came over next year, would he be eligible for the AHL at 19, or would he have to play in the CHL and which would be the better option?

    Yakimov probably this summer, I believe Slepyshev will have another year. It would be cool to bring them over together, though.

  16. regwald says:

    slightly off topic, but both Slepyshev and Yakimov on the ice in the final minute for the Russians vs Sweden. Yakimov wins the big draw clean to set up the big shot to the net. Lost the second draw, but it puts it into perspective what the Russian coach thinks of both players.

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    A couple of weeks ago I was baffled as to why Grebs wasn’t given the Rajala option. The player didn’t come back to NA to play in OKC, and MacT/Ricky O are watching the cap and 50 man roster like panicky sharp shooters.

    I still think that might happen.

    But, as we near the deadline, I’m starting to think MacT will be offloading players (15 for sure, potentially 2 and 19 and probably some prospects) and may have a handshake agreement with Grebs that he will get time on the back 9.

    —–

    Of course, Grebs might be reluctant to walk away from the cash. In that case, a buyout might work.

  18. commonfan14 says:

    sliderule: You can make what you want of it bad luck or shitty drafting but the oilers are bottom feeders at drafting as well as playing the game.

    There’s simply no way to nail picks outside the first round and still get the first overall pick 6 years in a row without making it too obvious to ignore that you’re tanking and forcing the league to take action. You’d need to leave a bunch of good players in the minors while you’re getting killed in the pros or pull the goalie for every third period – things like that.

    You can start taking good players later in the draft in Year 4, but only if they play overseas and it’s reasonable that they’ll need to have a period of adjustment in the minors after finishing up with their other contracts. Helps if you trade down to do it, too, as the slow path is easier to justify the lower they’re taken.

    We also saw last year that the overall plan can’t withstand the team having a great PP after a certain number of the #1s are aboard. Kreuger definitely complicated up the plan last year and caused them to miss out on Seth Jones at the draft – forcing them to go with the next best version of him available. For that, he had to be Skyped.

    But now the plan is back on track, with Ekblad all but in the fold either at #1 or at #2 if the D prospect-stacked Sabres win the lottery and take Reinhart. If the Oil finish 29th and someone other than the Sabres win the lottery, well, that’ll be the failure that will finally lead to a Skyping for Eakins.

    Expect more positive returns from the lower round picks taken this year. They won’t be able to get to Edmonton fast enough to screw anything up.

    Next year, the Oil will do the prudent thing and keep all of Ekblad, Nurse and Klefbom in Junior or the AHL. They’re young and D take a while to develop, after all. What, we should rush them in just because our D on the big club is terrible? Unthinkable.

    The fact that it will allow us another year of futility when the big prize of all this, Mr. “Generational Talent” McDavid is waiting at the end of the rainbow is pure coincidence.

    That’ll be followed by more great later-round picks, even better than the year before, as the plan will have been completed and the handcuffs will be fully off.

    And then we’ll have it. A team so stacked that the league will have to change the draft rules to ensure it never happens again.

    The books that will be written after the full scope of the plan is fully revealed will be legendary.

    And we’ll all live happily ever after.

  19. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Of course, Grebs might be reluctant to walk away from the cash. In that case, a buyout might work.

    Why would that be necessary though?

  20. icecastles says:

    Has anyone got a live stream of the Canada-Finland game? Nothing listed on Chanfeed.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia: Why would that be necessary though?

    It wouldn’t be.

    They could just let the contract elapse. But consider this:

    –Grebs may prefer to go back to the KHL and find a taker than play in OKC
    –MacT may want roster/cap space to operate now
    –MacT may want to give Nelson more room to work out his logjam of prospects. As it is, someone — usually Gernat and/or Musil — has to sit pretty much every game. If Grebs isn’t part of any NHL plans going forward… why give him any TOI at all?

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    icecastles:
    Has anyone got a live stream of the Canada-Finland game? Nothing listed on Chanfeed.

    http://firstrownow.eu/watch/230776/1/watch-canada-vs-finland.html

  23. icecastles says:

    Never mind, I found one.

  24. Pouzar says:

    Just a small thread hijack….

    @BrockOtten
    Darnell Nurse was an absolute beast tonight. Controlled the play whenever he was on the ice. The best game I’ve seen him play this year.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pouzar:
    Just a small thread hijack….

    @BrockOtten
    Darnell Nurse was an absolute beast tonight. Controlled the play whenever he was on the ice. The best game I’ve seen him play this year.

    Are you saying “Boo” or “Boo-urns”?

  26. Gordies Elbow says:

    sliderule,

    While in general, I agree that Edmonton needs to improve it’s drafting and development, I’d question comparing the period from 2007 to the 2010 draft. Between 2007 and 2010, Edmonton had 13 draft picks after the first round, and LA had 25 – due to deals like the Penner offer sheet.

    To reverse it, take a look at the same teams from 2010 through the 2012 draft.

    If you look at LA from 2010 to 2012, 15 picks:
    2010-2-17-47 :Tyler Toffoli
    2010-3-10-70 :Jordan Weal
    2010-5-28-148 :Kevin Gravel
    2010-6-8-158 :Maxim Kitsyn
    2011-2-19-49 :Christopher Gibson
    2011-3-19-80 :Andy Andreoff
    2011-3-21-82 :Nicholas Shore
    2011-4-19-110 :Michael Mersch
    2011-5-19-140 :Joel Lowry
    2011-7-19-200 :Michael Schumacher
    2012-4-30-121 :Nikolay Prokhorkin
    2012-5-30-151 :Colin Miller
    2012-6-20-171 :Tomas Hyka
    2012-6-30-181 : Paul Ladue
    2012-7-30-211 :Nick Ebert

    And Edmonton, same period, 23 picks:

    2010-2-1-31 :Tyler Pitlick
    2010-2-16-46 :Martin Marincin
    2010-2-18-48 :Curtis Hamilton
    2010-3-1-61 :Ryan Martindale
    2010-4-1-91 :Jeremie Blain
    2010-5-1-121 :Tyler Bunz
    2010-6-12-162 : Brandon Davidson
    2010-6-16-166 : Drew Czerwonka
    2010-7-1-181 :Kristians Pelss
    2010-7-22-202 :Kellen Jones
    2011-2-1-31 : David Musil
    2011-3-1-62 :Samu Perhonen
    2011-3-13-74 :Travis Ewanyk
    2011-4-1-92 : Dillon Simpson
    2011-4-23-114 :Tobias Rieder
    2011-5-1-122 :Martin Gernat
    2011-7-1-182 :Frans Tuohimaa
    2012-2-2-32 :Mitchell Moroz
    2012-3-2-63 :Jujhar Khaira
    2012-3-30-91 : Daniil Zharkov
    2012-4-2-93 :Erik Gustafsson
    2012-5-2-123 :Joey Laleggia
    2012-6-2-153 :John McCarron

    Will Edmonton get 20+ games out of more of the players on the above list? Likely, due to both the number of the picks, likely through a combination of opportunity with the big club, and broader spectrum of skills that can be afforded from drafting more often.

    In the last three years (2011-2013,) Edmonton had 22 picks in that range (same as Detriot.) Calgary only had 15 in the same period. Chicago had 23.

    What really stands out, is that in 2007, a really weak draft year, LA knocked it out of the park. If you’re looking for something for Edmonton to emulate, it’s that draft.

  27. Pouzar says:

    RE: Hamilton

    A bumpy ride with injuries. Hopefully we can hang on to him to see what he can do when healthy. If I see him on another NHL roster I will off myself.

  28. Pouzar says:

    “Hamilton’s Darnell Nurse making an impact”

    http://www.thespec.com/sports-story/4299500-nurse-making-an-impact/

  29. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    On Rajala.

    I think MacT did the right thing. It looked like MacT and Rajala couldn’t come together on a deal (Rajala IIRC wanted a 1-way deal), so MacT set him free.

    I think that’s a real stand up option. Should have been done with Omark years ago.

    If you aren’t going to use a player, no need to hamper his salad days with contract messiness, let him try to find work elsewhere.

    Rajala didn’t need a new contract. He still had two years left on his entry level deal. MacT and he agreed to terminate the contract. On the Oilers side of this, they had to give up their rights to Rajala.

    It was Hartikainen who needed a new contract. I would have had no issues giving Hartikainen a one-year one way NHL deal for near the NHL minimum.

    If I were Oilers GM, Paajarvi, Lander, Hartikainen (and Smyth and Arcobello and combinations) would have been my 4th line.

    I would have signed Penner to play left wing with Gagner and Yakupov.

    Gordon between Horcoff and Hemsky would have been my 3rd line.

    i.e.

    Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle
    Penner, Gagner, Yakupov
    Horcoff, Gordon, Hemsky
    Paajarvi, Lander, Hartikainen
    Smyth, Arcobello.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Gordies Elbow: What really stands out, is that in 2007, a really weak draft year, LA knocked it out of the park. If you’re looking for something for Edmonton to emulate, it’s that draft.

    Montreal had a pretty good draft that year too :)

  31. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    Canada’s hockey men at the Olympics

    http://www.puckrant.com/slapshot/canadas-hockey-men-at-the-olympics

    Hall made it. Cool!

    Edit: Oops. Nevermind. But he should.

  32. VanOil says:

    Pouzar:
    “Hamilton’s Darnell Nurse making an impact”

    http://www.thespec.com/sports-story/4299500-nurse-making-an-impact/

    Wow what a write up.

  33. Gordies Elbow says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yep – After Montreal picked Ryan McDonagh, Max Pacioretty, and P.K. Subban, LA picked up Oscar Moller, Wayne Simmonds, Alec Martinez, and Dwight King.

    Hickey at 4? Damn, LA will never get better picking like this….

  34. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10: Rajala didn’t need a new contract. He still had two years left on his entry level deal. MacT and he agreed to terminate the contract. On the Oilers side of this, they had to give up their rights to Rajala.

    Ahh… thanks.

    I can never remember that situation right:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/08/23/oilers-release-high-scoring-prospect-7-toni-rajala/

    I should just re-read that every time Rajala comes up.

    In that case, I guess they just couldn’t come together on where he would play this season.

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pouzar:
    RE: Hamilton

    A bumpy ride with injuries. Hopefully we can hang on to him to see what he can do when healthy. If I see him on another NHL roster I will off myself.

    If he has another week even approximating last weeks, he’ll get a call up for sure down the stretch.

    I bet all 3 2010 forwards play in the NHL this year barring injury. Might as well see what you have.

  36. Pouzar says:

    VanOil: Wow what a write up.

    This says all I need to know…

    “But Soo GM Kyle Dubas said Nurse, who has nine goals and 26 points in 38 games this season, isn’t going anywhere.

    And it’s not just because of the number of minutes he logs for the Hounds, it’s the quality of minutes he plays.

    “He (Nurse) is such a pivotal player for us. He logs a lot of minutes and he logs the toughest minutes in the league by a pretty substantial margin. The quality of competition he faces is superior to anyone else in our league, particularly any other defencemen in our league.

    “To be able to fill those minutes would be so difficult. So his value to us is so incredibly high, it’s tough to really put words to it,” Dubas adds.”

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    happy fin-day everyone!

  38. VanOil says:

    When we trade Hemsky for Lazar it looks like he has good chemistry with McDavid who we will draft next year.

  39. flyfish1168 says:

    I see klefblom missed last evening game. What is the injury this time? I’m concern about him ever going to be able to even play a full season. Time to trade him why he has value.

  40. Minister D- says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I was saying ‘boo-urns.’

  41. bill needle says:

    Now that Hamilton appears to be showing some life, it’s about time the Oilers purged him from the system. He’s making the rest of the franchise look bad.

  42. Bulging Twine says:

    What’s so great about Reinhart and Ekblad? I don’t see it. Ekblad getting walked around. Three times and I’ve only been watching one period!

  43. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jeez. this Canada PP has been watching Oilers tape.

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Minister D-:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I was saying ‘boo-urns.’

    You would be Hans.

  45. godot10 says:

    Bulging Twine:
    What’s so great about Reinhart and Ekblad?I don’t see it.Ekblad getting walked around.Three times and I’ve only been watching one period!

    Draft eligible defensemen rarely ever make Canada’s World Junior squad. Doughty and Bouwmeester and that is about it in recent history. Ryan Ellis might have made it as a pure power play specialist.

    Draft eligible and playing for Canada pretty much means that one is in top 5 pick territory.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pouzar:
    “Curtis Hamilton once again looking like a rising star”

    http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-barons-curtis-hamilton-once-again-looking-like-a-rising-star/article/3920433

    This quote is interesting:

    ““I’m taking it day by day,” Hamilton said. “You can never look too far ahead. I’ve had to work my way up. This year with all the changes they’re trying to develop more young players. I’m getting more of a chance.”

    Reminds us of MacT saying OKC was going to get more direction from above.

  47. Lowetide says:

    bill needle:
    Now that Hamilton appears to be showing some life, it’s about time the Oilers purged him from the system. He’s making the rest of the franchise look bad.

    They tried to trade him in a press release this summer, remember.

  48. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    You are right .
    That was year with three first picks.
    That brings us inline were we should be dead ass last with 0 picks for four years of drafting.

  49. sliderule says:

    Ryan,

    Three picks for Chicago

  50. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Man this is a slow junior team. Losing races everywhere.
    Brutal officiating both ways.

  51. Old School G says:

    We should try get a couple of these Jr age free agent Fins signed, I like their game quite a bit I still think Canada wins this one, plenty of time for our boys yet.

    Hey LT,

    Great article on this fine Saturday.

    1 to 10.

    1 = no chance 10 = almost certain

    What number do you rate Hartikainen coming back?

    I’m hoping MacT is keeping a close eye on him and just wants him to find some consistent compete.

  52. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    You are right .
    That was year with three first picks.
    That brings us inline were we should be dead ass last with 0 picks for four years of drafting.

    Yeah, I but i do think you have to place all of these things in context.

    2006: didn’t have a first, but cashed in on Petry in the second and could have cashed in on Peckham (man, that one hurt).

    2007: Bad, bad draft and Prendergast pays with his job.

    2008: That was the Penner offer sheet year right? So they had nothing, got lucky on eberle and that’s all she wrote.

    Now, because of no 1st rd pick in 2006, Prendergast whiff in the gloaming and the Penner offer sheet you MUST deliver 2009+.

    And the draft refuses to work like that. For anyone. After round one it’s mostly a crap shoot, and the Oilers may cash in with any number of kids 2010+.

    We wait.

  53. Bulging Twine says:

    Reinhart easily pushed around, Oilers don’t need more of that

  54. sliderule says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    I tried to pick a period were the picks had a chance to mature and play.

    Didn’t want to go too far back as Stu only took over in 2008.

    At least for period 2007 to 2010 scouting staff didn’t change much and as the staff give most of inputs on second round and later I thought it was fair.

  55. hags9k says:

    Curtains. Lots if interesting names on this Canada team but I was pretty unimpressed with all of them.

  56. jp says:

    The Fins have played a perfect 3rd period with the lead. That penalty shot switcheroo was difficult to watch though.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Val Kilmer in Willow.

  58. godot10 says:

    sliderule:
    Gordies Elbow,

    I tried to pick a period were the picks had a chance to mature and play.

    Didn’t want to go too far back as Stu only took over in 2008.

    At least for period 2007 to 2010 scouting staff didn’t change much and as thestaff give most of inputs on second round and later I thought it was fair.

    The Oilers had no 2nd rounds in 2008.

    Lander, in 2009, compares well with the picks after him in the 2nd round.

    Marincin is tracking extremely well for a 2010-draft 2nd round defensemen.

    Pitlick, in 2010, still compares favorably, with the picks after him in the 2nd round, considering his injury history. He was not a reach pick. He was a McKenzie list late first round candidate. He fell to the OIlers. Bad luck perhaps. If he had not fallen, the Oilers might have gone Marincin, Toffoli instead of Pitlick Marincin.

    And well, Hamilton may be emerging just in time. On a Detroit model timetable, it is still to early to make final judgement on the 2010 guys.

  59. Pretendergast says:

    Bigras’ first shift in 2 games, and nurse wasnt picked for this team. Who picks a team to sit them for 2 games; hockey canada is looking like more of a joke every day. Nurse plays the highest quality of competition in the ohl according to multiple reports and yet he couldnt beat out someone who sutter couldnt trust for one shift? Someone explain this to me.

  60. hags9k says:

    Pretendergast:
    Someone explain this to me.

    Politics. It affects very team from tikes to the beer leagues to the Olympians. I’m starting to wonder where all the great Canadian goalies have gone…All I see anymore is tall robots. No save makers, just big and fundamentals. Then I have to remember that they never pick the best available CHL goalies, no that would make too much sense, they need to show how smart they are…

    Not pinning this on Fucale he did make some great saves and played pretty well, but when did we last have a goalie star in the tourney? Price?

    Even more disappointing with the loss that we didn’t get to see Nurse. Just another kick in the biscuits in this godforsaken 8 years that hockey hates me.

  61. David says:

    Pretendergast:
    Bigras’ first shift in 2 games, and nurse wasnt picked for this team. Who picks a team to sit them for 2 games; hockey canada is looking like more of a joke every day. Nurse plays the highest quality of competition in the ohl according to multiple reports and yet he couldnt beat out someone who sutter couldnt trust for one shift? Someone explain this to me.

    This x100. Hockey Canada is a joke. Go Russia!

  62. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I but i do think you have to place all of these things in context.

    2006: didn’t have a first, but cashed in on Petry in the second and could have cashed in on Peckham (man, that one hurt).

    2007: Bad, bad draft and Prendergast pays with his job.

    2008: That was the Penner offer sheet year right? So they had nothing, got lucky on eberle and that’s all she wrote.

    Now, because of no 1st rd pick in 2006, Prendergast whiff in the gloaming and the Penner offer sheet you MUST deliver 2009+.

    And the draft refuses to work like that. For anyone. After round one it’s mostly a crap shoot, and the Oilers may cash in with any number of kids 2010+.

    We wait.

    That is a fair point so I went back to look at number of picks teams had.

    No surprise the three best had lots .Kings 29, islanders 30,Nashville 27.

    Their conversion rates were pretty good at 28, 20,22 percent.

    Two of the teams with only 21 picks converted at 24 percent

    The oil had 24 picks and converted at 0 percent.

    It’s just luck though.

  63. hoser313 says:

    jp:
    The Fins have played a perfect 3rd period with the lead. That penalty shot switcheroo was difficult to watch though.

    Finns did a great job of clogging the middle. When that happens, the D need to activate on offense. On this, they completely failed. General inability to make or take a pass. Nurse would have helped.

  64. Lowetide says:

    sliderule: That is a fair point so I went back to look at number of picks teams had.

    No surprise the three best had lots .Kings 29, islanders 30,Nashville 27.

    Their conversion rates were pretty good at 28, 20,22 percent.

    Two of the teams with only 21 picks converted at 24 percent

    The oil had 24 picks and converted at 0 percent.

    It’s just luck though.

    See, this is why these conversations go off the rails. I have no idea why you’re pissy with me, but you are. I’ve tried to move the conversation forward and we’re here.

    Disappointing.

  65. sliderule says:

    Pretendergast,

    You know I think Nurse was lucky he wasn’t picked.

    They didn’t give him much ice at all in super series so he might have got Bigras treatment.

    If the people running hockey canada didn’t like him it would be real hard to turn them around

    Meanwhile back at Soo he is making hay from that last report.

  66. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s funny.

    I was trying to be so nice.lol.

  67. Caramel Obvious says:

    The Lightning have three players from the 2010 and 2011 drafts taken below the first round playing serious minutes. That’s getting something from your draft even after whiffing on Connolly.

  68. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    That’s funny.

    I was trying to be so nice.lol.

    haha! Okay, that was funny. We’re good.

  69. Joel Pepin says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    The Lightning have three players from the 2010 and 2011 drafts taken below the first round playing serious minutes.That’s getting something from your draft even after whiffing on Connolly.

    Long-time reader here, but I have only posted a handful of times. Last summer, I did some number-crunching to get a better sense of how the Oilers stack up draft-wise against other teams (by games played, the Oilers looked pretty good, even without the #1 overall picks). I based the analysis on the following:
    - for a given draft year, players from each round have since played an average of “x” games
    - how did the Oiler picks from each round stack up against this average?

    DSF made a wonderful point that playing “x number of games” for a terrible team (desperate for help) isn’t the same as playing the same number of games for a great team. Also, it would be different to be playing “serious minutes” vs. limited 4th line minutes.

    2 questions for the group:
    (1) is there an easy resource to pull (for a given draft year) the teams that drafted the players, the number of games and minutes they would have played, and the teams that they played for, year-by-year?
    (2) Is there a reasonable way to try to compare apples-to-apples when saying a drafted player played, say, 20 games for the Oilers vs. 20 games for the Red Wings? Is playing 20 games for a help-desperate team like the Oilers closer to playing 10 games for a great team like the Wings? Do we just apply a multiplier based on the number of wins (or Fenwick)? Has this ever been attempted?

    Thanks

  70. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    The Lightning have three players from the 2010 and 2011 drafts taken below the first round playing serious minutes.That’s getting something from your draft even after whiffing on Connolly.

    you bet. I’m just suggesting that, since we know prospects don’t develop in a straight line, we allow more time to pass on them. Certainly Marincin makes the 2010 draft look better based on early returns, can we agree on that?

  71. jfry says:

    From WJC:

    Anton Slepyshev, Andrei Vasilevski and Mikhail Grigorenko were named Russia’s top three players.

  72. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: you bet. I’m just suggesting that, since we know prospects don’t develop ina straight line, we allow more time to pass on them. Certainly Marincin makes the 2010 draft look better based on early returns, can we agree on that?

    So the Oil are going to keep Marincin up right?

  73. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar: So the Oil are going to keep Marincin up right?

    He might end up being part of the 1st overall, Eberle and Marincin for Shea Weber deal.

  74. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide,

    Man I have no idea who will be involved I just have a strong gut feeling we will land him.

  75. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: He might end up being part of the 1st overall, Eberle and Marincin for Shea Weber deal.

    That’s a nice package for NSH. Instant upgrade in Offence and they can draft Ekblad to ride shotgun with Marincin for the next 10 years :P

  76. bendelson says:

    Drafting the right player is an important first step In an organization – clearly. That being said, the relationship between drafting well and taking the next step and also developing well should be highlighted. Down the line, teams that succeed with player development look like big winners at the draft table don’t they?

    It is not all on the player selected at 18 yrs old. That’s ludicrous. Too easy.

    Does Detroit draft well, develop well or both? Clearly a combination of the two is at work here…

    Does Edm draft well, develop well or neither? We wait but development seems to be an issue (clearly has been in the Oilers recent history) for Edm making their work at the draft table appear less successful than it otherwise could have been.

    Fair?

  77. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: He might end up being part of the 1st overall, Eberle and Marincin for Shea Weber deal.

    Eklund’s got that up right now as an E3..quoting “reliable sources”…..:)…jk

    What kind of contract could we offer Hamilton after his ELC expires..? Does it have to be a 2 year deal..? Or does the CBA allow for a 1 year in a case like this..?

    The kid has shown next to nothing in 3 years of pro hockey, but you have to acknowledge that injuries have affected the kid in huge way. It would be a shame to flush him at this point, especially if there now appears to be a pulse-we could do a lot worse than offering this kid a 1 year deal if the CBA allows it.

  78. Hammers says:

    Some wonder about our last 3 first overall picks + Nurse But the truth is we are still 4-5 years from finding out .It’s funny how different owners look at running there teams , some hands off (ours ) some hands on (most) .My thinking is Katz won’t get involved until the opening of the new building then both Heads & Asses will roll out the door .. If Lowe ; McT & company are smart they will get this turned around next year or be Gone .Crunch Time .

  79. Pouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    If he shows well in the 2nd half they have to sign him. Maybe he and Pitlick and be the makings of a nice 4th line going forward.

  80. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide: you bet. I’m just suggesting that, since we know prospects don’t develop ina straight line, we allow more time to pass on them. Certainly Marincin makes the 2010 draft look better based on early returns, can we agree on that?

    I thought so. Then I watched Radko Gudas. World of difference.

    And where the hell did Ondraj Palat come from? The offense here is real, almost a pt/game last year in the AHL.

    And Nikita Kucherov, 24 pts in 17 games this year in the AHL (53 pts in 27 games last year in the Q). That’s fantastic. Second round pick. 20 years old. But it’s ok, we have David Musil.

    You can’t land on every pick but the Oilers have guys like Pitlick and Hamilton, Musil and Marincin instead of them. That hurts. Throw in the stall in Klefbom’s development, Hopkins flatlining, Yakupov regressing, and it’s no surprise the Oilers are where they are. They went all-in on young players and yet their young talent doesn’t really stand out even if you include the first round picks.

    Hopefully Slepyshev (who looked great) and Yakimov will be our surprise guys but they are at least two years away.

  81. Lowetide says:

    Hopkins flatlining? Well, that’s just silly

  82. Pouzar says:

    I have read that Yakimov is coming over but is Slepyshev even signable? I haven’t heard a word about his plans about coming to N.A.

  83. commonfan14 says:

    Lowetide,

    Assume he meant plateauing… not that I’m on board with that either.

    I always enjoy it though when someone takes a shot at Nuge on here, just because I know LT will be by within minutes to defend him like he’s his third kid.

    I also love Nuge, so it always warms my heart.

  84. Genjutsu says:

    bendelson:
    Drafting the right player is an important first step In an organization – clearly.That being said, the relationship between drafting well and taking the next step and also developing well should be highlighted.Down the line, teams that succeed with player development look like big winners at the draft table don’t they?

    It is not all on the player selected at 18 yrs old.That’s ludicrous.Too easy.

    Does Detroit draft well, develop well or both?Clearly a combination of the two is at work here…

    Does Edm draft well, develop well or neither?We wait but development seems to be an issue (clearly has been in the Oilers recent history) for Edm making their work at the draft table appear less successful than it otherwise could have been.

    Fair?

    I’m not sure it fair to judge the developement system currently in place just yet.

    They Oilers have only had the OKC team in place since 10/11. If we can agree its not fair to judge a prospect until 5 years past why are we judging a developement system before the 5 year mark?

    Its hard to be patient with the mess in front of us and emotion clouds reason at the best times.

  85. Genjutsu says:

    Pouzar:
    I have read that Yakimov is coming over but is Slepyshev even signable? I haven’t heard a word about his plans about coming to N.A.

    I think that’s why he passed through the draft in 12 when Pronman and others had him in the top 30.

  86. theres oil in virginia says:

    commonfan14:
    Lowetide,

    Assume he meant plateauing… not that I’m on board with that either.

    I always enjoy it though when someone takes a shot at Nuge on here, just because I know LT will be by within minutes to defend him like he’s his third kid.

    I also love Nuge, so it always warms my heart.

    GP G A PTS
    42 11 20 31

    Pretty easy job defending RNH coming off of major shoulder surgery. The +/- of -13 sucks, but…Oilers.

  87. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: He might end up being part of the 1st overall, Eberle and Marincin for Shea Weber deal.

    I thought it was 1st + Eberle + Petry + Marincin?

  88. Caramel Obvious says:

    Yeah, Hopkins isn’t dead. But he also isn’t a pt/game player.

  89. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I thought it was 1st + Eberle + Petry + Marincin?

    right. And I forgot Nurse in there, too.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Yeah, Hopkins isn’t dead.But he also isn’t a pt/game player.

    Nuge is one of two on my off limits list, and even though Hall is #1 I’m not sure that’ll last a long time. Nuge is wonderful.

  91. theres oil in virginia says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Yeah, Hopkins isn’t dead.But he also isn’t a pt/game player.

    I don’t know exactly what you’re implying here, but neither was Jonathan Toews for his first 3 years, and he barely is now:

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/3669/jonathan-toews

    RNH is tracking Toews pretty well:

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/2562624/ryan-nugent-hopkins

  92. prairieschooner says:

    The TV guys tried to make a point about how much bigger the Ducks were v the Oilers but when they showed the numbers they did not really show much of a difference.
    That being said the Oilers presumably are trying to get bigger to be able to compete in the tall tree division. except Yakupov
    I do not think we will see a 3 for 1 deal ( sorry LT we do not have 3 tradeable commodities ) at least not one that makes sense.
    Didn’t Nashville have to pay a huge upfront bonus to Weber?
    Has he a no move clause?
    Why would he want to come here?
    I think Eakins was channelling Gene Hackman in Hoosiers but only watched the first part of the movie, so he does not know how to build his team back up.

  93. theres oil in virginia says:

    I’m not sure how I landed in Purgatory, but that’s a pretty innocent comment.

  94. Gordies Elbow says:

    prairieschooner,

    Weber signed the offer sheet with the Flyers, and as such, doesn’t have a NMC/NTC. Nashville can trade him anywhere. That said – I can’t see him coming to Edmonton.

  95. Andy P says:

    I just stumbled over the fact that no Canadian team has won a Stanley since 1993, and 12 of
    Canadian teams won 12 of the prior 20.

  96. Pouzar says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Yeah, Hopkins isn’t dead.But he also isn’t a pt/game player.

    Neither is Toews to whom you compared to a few days ago.

    I think Nuge will compare favorably to Toews pts wise but I think
    stylistically he is Datsyuk-lite.

  97. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    I’m not sure how I landed in Purgatory, but that’s a pretty innocent comment.

    It’s up.

  98. Andy P says:

    Sorry, I got pulled off before I could complete the comment, my point is that this drought of Canadian teams winning Stanley, corresponds pretty closely with Bettman’s tenure. Hmmm.

  99. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: It’s up.

    Thanks. I always wondered what this blog looked like through Captain Happy’s eyes. It’s an eery feeling. Heehee.

  100. Andy P says:

    What if Hall, Eberle and Gags represent a tightly knit core of player’s opposition to Eakins?

    How does MacT resolve that? Or is that not a realistic thought?

  101. theres oil in virginia says:

    Andy P:
    Sorry, I got pulled off before I could complete the comment, my point is that this drought of Canadian teams winning Stanley, corresponds pretty closely with Bettman’s tenure. Hmmm.

    I wonder how an Edmonton-Ottawa SCFinals would play in American TV markets.

  102. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: you bet. I’m just suggesting that, since we know prospects don’t develop ina straight line, we allow more time to pass on them. Certainly Marincin makes the 2010 draft look better based on early returns, can we agree on that?

    Yeah, it’s not you LT (with slider) that we’re pissed at. It’s the 2007-9 drafts we’re pissed at. :)

    Even to a casual observer (read me), there was a clusterfcuk period of drafting from 2007 to 2009 that as you’ve previously pointed out IIRC is the reason we’re currently such a bad hockey club.

    2007 – 2 effectively blown 1st round picks (Nash / Plante). You need to hit a useful player with one of those.

    2008 – Eberle’s a home run and the Penner offersheet, so fair game.

    2009 – This year hurts for me personally with the Oilers getting all of a vanilla lander out of 5 non-1st round picks out of the first four rounds. The Bigos and Abney picks were wasted picks the second they were selected.

    2010 – 4 picks from 30 to 61 and the early returns aren’t great though Marincin could save the draft.

    oh well, LT, it’s not you anyone’s mad at. :)

  103. oliveoilers says:

    theres oil in virginia: I wonder how an Edmonton-Ottawa SCFinals would play in American TV markets.

    Bettman Kryptonite…..

  104. Ryan says:

    theres oil in virginia: I wonder how an Edmonton-Ottawa SCFinals would play in American TV markets.

    Honestly, I don’t know why, but a league-wide conspiracy for the Oilers with their bullet-proof Ballard’s Leaf -like market, to take one on the chin for the benefit of the league itself would make me somewhat happier than the truth…

    That the Oilers are just the worst managed team in the entire NHL.

  105. Lowetide says:

    Friedman just reported Gagner’s name is out there and that they would find him a place to land he’s comfortable. NYI? CHI?

  106. sliderule says:

    prairieschooner,

    I could be wrong as I am doing some of these numbers in my head but I had the oiler defence last night at around 191 lbs and the Ducks at around 204.

    That’s a huge difference and it’s my reason for why we can’t break up the cycle.

    If we add Weber I hope they don’t sell the farm on our defence prospects.

    It would take more than him to make this defence work.

  107. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    Friedman just reported Gagner’s name is out there and that they would find him a place to land he’s comfortable. NYI? CHI?

    I didn’t see that on his twitter feed?

    As much as I’ve been banging on the trade Gagner drum since last season, I’d have big reservations as to what type of return he’d command this season.

    I’m never a fan of buy high / sell low.

  108. jake70 says:

    Where is all this Weber talk comming from…source?

  109. Ryan says:

    jake70,

    The source is Nashville has no skilled forwards and they have Seth Jones now.

    The Oilers lack a top 2 defenseman. It’s always just seeing an obvious fit between the teams.

  110. rich says:

    Lowetide:
    Friedman just reported Gagner’s name is out there and that they would find him a place to land he’s comfortable. NYI? CHI?

    Personally, either the wing or TOR would be just fine.

    Notice I did say wing. If he’s not at center, I’m ok w/him staying, but if the coach is going to insist he has to be 2C, I’d just assume MacT find him another address and end our misery.

  111. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ryan: Honestly, I don’t know why, but a league-wide conspiracy for the Oilers with their bullet-proof Ballard’s Leaf -like market, to take one on the chin for the benefit of the league itself would make me somewhat happier than the truth…

    That the Oilers are just the worst managed team in the entire NHL.

    Sure, but there have been some good Canadian teams not from Edmonton that haven’t won it either. I wonder how well the EDM-CAR finals played on US TV. Or the CGY-TB finals. I doubt there’s a top-down conspiracy, but I only doubt it due to logistics, not lack of intent.

  112. Young Oil says:

    Lowetide:
    Friedman just reported Gagner’s name is out there and that they would find him a place to land he’s comfortable. NYI? CHI?

    I wonder if Gagner and Jones (or a 2nd tier prospect) could get us Brock Nelson and Matt Martin. That would be a solid upgrade to the bottom 6.

  113. Ryan says:

    jake70,

    Oh then there was this:

    Friedman thinks that MacTavish (if he hasn’t already) should call up the Predators GM David Poile to check in on Shea Weber and say: ”If you decide to trade No. 6, I’m in. I’ve got what you want. There’s no better fit in the league.” The Oilers could package one of their previous 1st round picks, not named Nail Yakupov, and this year’s first as part of the deal.

  114. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide:
    Friedman just reported Gagner’s name is out there and that they would find him a place to land he’s comfortable. NYI? CHI?

    Great, more magic beans/6th round picks.

  115. VOR says:

    I get the hatred of the Oilers’ current management that has become the leitmotif of this and many other Oilers blogs. I even to some extent understand the piling on with muddled math and suspect statisitics not that crappy analysis ever advances the search for a way out of the darkness. What I don’t get is why so often we all come of as sounding so much like a crazy cargo cult . A cult made up of former in-mates in a hospital for the criminally insane now trapped on a desert island and only able to see the real world reflected by mirrors. Those mirrors are covered in smudged symbols. We all are certain that many of the symbols are part of a secret code. Each of us believe we, and we alone understand that code.

    I can’t help thinking that centuries from now some anthropology graduate student will study Lowetide and finally, in frustration, go to their supervisor and say, “I can’t make sense of any of this.” The supervisor will ask, “Have you read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds?” The penny will drop, and the student will say, “So you are saying they are all mad?” “As hatters.”

  116. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT

    Absolutely love the Grand Rapids Springfield OKC comparison above. Great job!! It is though tougher to make the Wings than it is the Oilers

    On the Anaheim top 6 size: it includes Penner, Getzlaf, Perry and Winnik (based on TOI) all bigger than 210. Penner might be 35 lbs bigger than that. Added to that top 4 is Cogliano and Koivu each at 180 lbs. The argument falls apart because can you have a single small player on any line in any league against any competition. And Anaheim does. The Oilers have no one as big as Anaheim 4 bigger forwards

    On the Oiler draft picks I really cannot wait for 5 years to pass so we have a real good idea what we actually have from the 09 & 10 draft . It cannot be too good that the cannot make a really really really bad NHL team

  117. oliveoilers says:

    VOR,

    Two cows in a field, one turns to the other and says “what do you think about this mad cow disease?” The other one says “Doesn’t bother me, I’m a helicopter.”

  118. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers:
    VOR,

    Two cows in a field, one turns to the other and says “what do you think about this mad cow disease?”The other one says “Doesn’t bother me, I’m a helicopter.”

    Awesome./ Just awesome. :-)

  119. jake70 says:

    Ryan:
    jake70,

    Oh then there was this:

    Friedman thinks that MacTavish (if he hasn’t already) should call up the Predators GM David Poile to check in on Shea Weber and say: ”If you decide to trade No. 6, I’m in. I’ve got what you want. There’s no better fit in the league.” The Oilers could package one of their previous 1st round picks, not named Nail Yakupov, and this year’s first as part of the deal.

    Yeah I heard this last week. Just thought I missed some report of some imminent trade by some of discussion above.

  120. jake70 says:

    theres oil in virginia: I wonder how an Edmonton-Ottawa SCFinals would play in American TV markets.

    Funny a buddy and I were discussing this today watching that awful display by Canada at WJC. I suggested a Winnipeg-Ottawa final would be hilarious. Oh well, Healy just said they may have made 30M at the winter classic. I am seriously doubting a cup winning team based in Canada for at least the length of the current CBA and most likely the length of that mammoth Rogers TV deal (you are so clever Gary).

  121. bookje says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    LT

    Absolutely love the Grand Rapids Springfield OKC comparison above. Great job!!It is though tougher to make the Wings than it is the Oilers

    On the Anaheim top 6 size: it includes Penner, Getzlaf, Perry and Winnik (based on TOI) all bigger than 210. Penner might be 35 lbs bigger than that. Added to that top 4 is Cogliano and Koivu each at 180 lbs. The argument falls apart because can you have a single small player on any line in any league against any competition. And Anaheim does. The Oilers have no one as big as Anaheim 4 bigger forwards

    On the Oiler draft picksI really cannot wait for 5 years to pass so we have a real good idea what we actually have from the 09 & 10 draft . It cannot be too good that the cannot make a really really really bad NHL team

    Dear Future,

    Sorry about destroying the planet. As you can tell, we were too busy debating hockey to save it.

    Regards,
    The Mad Hatters

  122. fifthcartel says:

    Does a Sam Gagner for Jake Gardiner swap make more sense now?

  123. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Does a Sam Gagner for Jake Gardiner swap make more sense now?

    if you include Kadri. :-)

  124. Ryan says:

    bookje: Dear Future,

    Sorry about destroying the planet.As you can tell, we were too busy debating hockey to save it.

    Regards,
    The Mad Hatters

    If saving the planet has anything to do with constantly complaining about the present state of affairs with no hope in site (in a group blog format), then count me in!

  125. bookje says:

    That quote was meant to be a response to VOR’s comment “I can’t help thinking that centuries from now some anthropology graduate student will study Lowetide and finally, in frustration, go to their supervisor and say, “I can’t make sense of any of this.” The supervisor will ask, “Have you read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds?” The penny will drop, and the student will say, “So you are saying they are all mad?” “As hatters.””

    but somehow the wrong quote came up making it far less relevant and/or witty.

  126. theres oil in virginia says:

    bookje: but somehow the wrong quote came up

    That happened to me the other day, but I thought I just goofed. Then a couple of days ago, I saw someone else remark that the wrong quote came up, and now you. LT, I think there may be a gremlin in the machine.

  127. oliveoilers says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Deus ex machina

  128. misfit says:

    Lowetide:
    Friedman just reported Gagner’s name is out there and that they would find him a place to land he’s comfortable. NYI? CHI?

    I missed the Friedman spot, but I know when he was drafted, his dad mentioned something about how he was really hoping to go to a Canadian team. So I would imagine the Islanders, Blackhawks, and any of the Canadian teams would be ok with Gagner.

  129. bookje says:

    misfit: I missed the Friedman spot, but I know when he was drafted, his dad mentioned something about how he was really hoping to go to a Canadian team.So I would imagine the Islanders, Blackhawks, and any of the Canadian teams would be ok with Gagner.

    I agree, there probably is a gremlin in the machine!

  130. theres oil in virginia says:

    fifthcartel:
    Does a Sam Gagner for Jake Gardiner swap make more sense now?

    Nicely done Bookje. Very clever.

  131. Thinker says:

    I don’t want to rain on the Weber parade, but I’m gonna. The trade make the team weaker in the long haul, as the oil are still at least three years from competitive, and by that point in time, weber will be on the decline. Target a younger guy if you have to make a blockbuster trade, however now is not the time There are still far too many holes on the team, and since we plan on addressing them through the draft, a guy like weber only weakens our draft position. Not that a number one dman wouldn’t be a boon to this team, but if we are being realistic, he wouldn’t be enough to push us any higher than 8th (probably no more than 10th).
    Make this trade when we are on the cusp of being a contender. I would say after one playoff appearance, and being on the way to a second one at the trade deadline. At that point, by all means move one or more of the young pieces and picks as it will take us from playoff team to contender. Also trading a top three pick is more likely than not going to bite you in the ass.

  132. misfit says:

    On the decline 3 years from now? At 31 he’ll still be in his prime. Pronger was 31 when the Oilers went to the SCF and he was a dominant force until injury took him out of the game at 37.

  133. Bulging Twine says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This quote is interesting:

    ““I’m taking it day by day,” Hamilton said. “You can never look too far ahead. I’ve had to work my way up. This year with all the changes they’re trying to develop more young players. I’m getting more of a chance.”

    Reminds us of MacT saying OKC was going to get more direction from above.

    Why weren’t they trying to develop more young players before?

  134. jp says:

    Joel Pepin:

    2 questions for the group:
    (1) is there an easy resource to pull (for a given draft year) the teams that drafted the players, the number of games and minutes they would have played, and the teams that they played for, year-by-year?
    (2) Is there a reasonable way to try to compare apples-to-apples when saying a drafted player played, say, 20 games for the Oilers vs. 20 games for the Red Wings?Is playing 20 games for a help-desperate team like the Oilers closer to playing 10 games for a great team like the Wings?Do we just apply a multiplier based on the number of wins (or Fenwick)?Has this ever been attempted?

    You’re likely already aware of it, but the best resource for this I’m aware of is hockeydb. They have pages for each draft year and also for picks by each team. For each team they have the picks listed by year with their NHL career boxcars (and you can link to more detailed info for each player). Oilers page here: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005632.html

    # 2 is far more complicated. It’s most likely true that good teams keep their young guys in the minors longer so they play fewer games (at least early), but part of the reason they’re good is that they’re drafting better. Those effects likely cancel each other out at least to some extent so it would be very difficult to tease them apart. A partial way around this would be to compare GP of picks between teams that have been similarly good (or bad). A universal multiplier that had any meaning wouldn’t be trivial to construct, and would likely also vary depending on player age.

  135. bendelson says:

    fifthcartel:
    Does a Sam Gagner for Jake Gardiner swap make more sense now?

    Based on the return the Oilers recieved for Smid, I would think expecting a Gagner for Gardiner trade seems overly optimistic.

    Maybe Gagner for Fabrice Herzog and the rights to Ralph Intranuovo’s professional career after hockey?

  136. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bulging Twine: Why weren’t they trying to develop more young players before?

    The theory goes like this:

    Tambo presided over the “righting the ship” of the minor leagues.

    We got a permanent AHL affiliate. And two things happened:

    1) a premium was put on winning to get the team off the ground.

    2) the organization from Lowe/Tambo down put a premium on winning to instil a culture of winning in the prospects.

    This meant Bill Scott was very active acquiring AHL vets and Nelson was given the green light to “win games”…. and prospects weren’t given anything on a platter.

    MacT said right away that they were going to take a stronger hand with OKC and wanted the prospects to get more attn.

  137. Captain Smarmy says:

    VOR,

    VOR:
    I can’t help thinking that centuries from now some anthropology graduate student will study Lowetide and finally, in frustration, go to their supervisor and say, “I can’t make sense of any of this.” The supervisor will ask, “Have you read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds?” The penny will drop, and the student will say, “So you are saying they are all mad?” “As hatters.”

    What would that class be? “Morons and fools that spend too much time thinking about stupid things that suck 101?

  138. 719 says:

    I think the price for Weber will be too high, and the Predators will not trade him.

    Byfuglien may be had though, him and a UFA Nitiken, instantly make our defence bigger and better without giving up a whole lot of our future.

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