BLUE STEEL

The Edmonton Oilers are actually gathering positives through this long winter nightmare. Don’t tell anyone! They might run away! Professor Scrivens is a nice story, and there’s an emerging top 4D pairing that might be able to hang around awhile in the good part of town.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAHMMER (OILERS BLUE 13-14)

petry and marincinYoung Marincin is the only blue bubble in the group, and his time with Petry sees him moving up into the shutdown quadrant where the real men work. Jeff Petry is a really good defenseman—I hope someday he plays in a town that gets him—and Marincin is adjusting well. We’re 20 games into the Slovak’s career, so we can’t give Stu MacGregor a passing grade yet. However, the arrows are good.

Do you remember when Smid-Petry rhymed? We’re approaching that, I believe. We don’t know the disconnect between Smid and Dallas Eakins, in fact maybe it wasn’t so much a disconnect as an erosion of talent and the coach being faced with a dilemma. Either way, this pairing works. The gangly kid from Kosice sure can play that blue.

The Oilers are 8-9-3 in the 20 games Marincin has played, and were 11-24-3 before his arrival.

MACT’S REPORT CARD

mact3

I’ve read a lot recently online about the job MacT’s doing, and pretty much everything I’ve seen lacks one important thing. Balance. Ripping a guy for failures is fine, but it’s also important to look at the positives.

NEGATIVES

  1. I think he raised expectations during the summer, and the poor results this season have sunk the organization into something bordering panic mode. The odds of MacT making a mistake in-season are massive this year.
  2. MacT was critical of Devan Dubnyk before the season started, and although I don’t believe it impacted Dubnyk’s season, it certainly didn’t help. MacT has done this before (Dustin Penner) and will probably want to tone down the verbal in coming seasons.
  3. He was unable to quick-fix the terrible start, although I’m not sure a seasoned GM could have handled this house of cards.
  4. His choice as coach has not been able to fix problems efficiently.

POSITIVES

  1. The Scrivens deal looked like a good one when it was made, and early results match.
  2. Many of his off-season moves (Perron, Gordon) have worked very well.
  3. He hasn’t traded a vital player away yet.
  4. He has been quick to move out mistakes (Grebeshkov) and players that don’t match the system-coach/skills eroding.

His track record isn’t perfect, but this is the first season in years we’ve seen in-season attempts to improve the club. Steve Tambellini grabbed his fiddle in October and put it down deadline week. I think it’s difficult to give a grade in mid-season, better to attempt assessment after the entire year comes into view.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

wood15

 

A busy show and a fluid guest list. 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We’ll talk Oilers, trade deadline and MacT.
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. Some prospects are going to be dealt at the deadline, I’ll ask Guy for some input.
  • Scott Cullen, tsn. Trade deadline, Olympics, Power Rankings.
  • Tim Murphy. The Murph Man is Edmonton’s most famous Seattle Seahawks fan. I’m not certain there’s a more passionate fan on earth, we’ll talk to him about the Super Bowl win on Sunday.

10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. It’ll be a blast!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

126 Responses to "BLUE STEEL"

  1. Hammers says:

    Agree LT . What I like most is that he can clean up his mistakes quickly . You mentioned Grebs but LaBarbara was another and I think he forced Eakins to send Acton down . Takes a big man to stand up and change what you did plus he didn’t wait .

  2. Hammers says:

    One other thing . I have no problem if he trades away a so called core guy as long as the return is there . I still think that’s what this core group needs ,a shake up . To be honest I don’t care who it is either . These players go along like it doesn’t matter . In most jobs all of them would be called out , mainly for a lack of consistency .

  3. PhrankLee says:

    The systemic arrogance of the organization also seems to have toned down. Funny how crow eating does that. DE and CMcT and KL have left bitter taste in fans mouths. I would never have thought I would be mulling over what Hall might bring in a trade. I find myself doing just that. How else are we going to secure a 1D and 1G?

  4. Hammers says:

    PhrankLee:
    The systemic arrogance of the organization also seems to have toned down. Funny how crow eating does that. DE and CMcT and KL have left bitter taste in fans mouths. I would never have thought I would be mulling over what Hall might bring in a trade. I find myself doing just that. How else are we going to secure a 1D and 1G?

    Exactly

  5. Surly says:

    Regarding Marincin, some good archive stuff from Oil Change…head to the 10:50 mark of:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=44&id=193740&lang=en

    They debate between Pitlick and Marincin at 31….then end with the thought of getting them both. Some interesting comments by various scouts.

    For tragic comedy…go to the 5:00 mark to hear Katz make a joke about how they are excited to make the first overall pick, but they don’t want to do it every year (crowd erupts in laughter).

  6. CurtisS says:

    Not sure why we gotta concentrate so much on what we need or what we dont have.

    Why cant we just make the group we have now show signs of improvement. Lets start with some simple coaching. Lets see some signs of coaching improving this team. Why does our PP suck? Why does it bleed goals against? Lets improve our PK. Lets bring our GA down to a respectable number.

    Until we see signs of our coaching improving his personnel its not going to matter who we have on the ice going forward.

    I really hope Macts season review at the end of the year concentrates more about improvement on the teams play than it does about player personnel because so far this year its been a epic fail.

  7. Pouzar says:

    From LT

    “•The upper left quarter are tough minutes and tough zones. Score blue in that area and you have Shea Weber’s phone number and can drop by Sidney Crosby’s house.”

    Me likey MM

  8. book¡je says:

    4. His choice as coach has not been able to fix problems efficiently.

    I think this is great phrasing. Regardless of what anyone thinks of the problems with the players on this team, I think it is impossible to ignore that the coaching has not brought out the best in them – Eakins has not optimized the hand dealt to him. I think when looking at a team at the bottom of the NHL, that will always be the case. Being that pathetic takes a combination of coaching, GM, and player failure. The powerplay this year is evidence of a coaching (and maybe meddling GM) failure.

    With that said, it also doesn’t mean that he will not be a great coach by this time next year. I think its fair to say that Eakins is facing many challenges that are entirely new to him. If he is quick to learn, he can be a big part of future success. Furthermore, I suspect this is the summer where we see new assistant coaches for the team. I never bought into the rampant criticism from the interweb or call in talk shows (because it has no standing), but Ralph Krueger noted that he felt that Smith and Bucky were lacking experience because they had not worked in another organisation and that was one reason why they needed an experienced associate (I can’t find this interview, but remember it well). He noted that he felt like he ended up taking everything on himself, such as reviewing video with players, because he needed to. He was diplomatic about it, but it was a clear indication that they were not outstanding assistants. So, an improvement in those roles could be helpful in achieving the desired culture shift for the team.

    I think MacT will stick with Eakins through next season regardless of the results, so I sure hope he becomes an outstandingly good coach!

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LT,

    Ask Cullen about this whole Ovi thing. My pet theory is that the various people pulling out the knives under the rubric of adv. stats. are far more invested in maintaining a relationship with their readers by repeating worn narratives, than they are in exploring and contextualizing the information adv. stats offers.

    I mean obviously these folks aren’t terribly learned about adv. stats. otherwise they wouldn’t be using +/-… but this really looks like this is the thought process:

    “we need to introduce adv. stats. to the masses (something we also don’t understand), let’s pick a familiar target and find a way to reinforce the narrative about him using fancy sounding stats language.”

    It all looks very reverse engineered.

  10. Doug McLachlan says:

    Poured myself another glass of Kool-Aid and got to thinking about MacT.

    Most of his mistakes were self-inflicted (bad) but were with his mouth (good in the sense that they can be fixed).

    But in citing his negatives, LT, I think you have to start with the Skype-firing of Kruger. Bold to say he wants his guy, from the start, but I got the sense that the core had started to gell with Kruger (particularly Yak and Schultz, the younger) and to so summarily dismiss the coach that had this team in a playoff spot last trade-deadline (screaming at the last GM for a healthy centre not named Smithson) had to have an effect on the team.

    I would add to the list of positives the aquisition of Belov and Bryzgalov. Neither has been great (but neither has been as bad as feared) and showed some out-of-box thinking that we are going to have to engage in until we somehow acquire the back-end studs we so need.

    As foolish as this may sound, I don’t see us as far back from where we thought we should be (challenging for a playoff spot) as the standings look. I’m scanning the results so far and see a dozen or so points that this team, as currently constructed, shouldn’t have given away. Not enough to put us in the playoffs, no, but enought to be in the same conversation as a Dallas, Nashville or Winnipeg.

    Every commentator will say that the 9s and 8s should be easier to acquire than the Js and Ks, which I hope is true because that is what we need to find. We don’t need another Nuge or Eberle but we need to find a couple more Ferences, Gordons and Hendrickses. Surely this should not prove as hard to do.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “He has been quick to move out mistakes (Grebeshkov)”

    Hammers: You mentioned Grebs but LaBarbara was another

    This line of thought I really don’t follow.

    Esp. in LaBarbera’s case. That was and is a good signing. If you have a do-over with the same information you still make that bet. Labarbs simply didn’t show up in a short stretch when he couldn’t afford to be bad.

    The signing and the trade were both good managing moves IMO.

  12. Snowman says:

    CurtisS,

    I mostly agree with this. You can see glimpses of Eakins influence on the system play now and again. I’ve seen an improvement in the attempt to cycle pucks down low. See some improvement sometimes in our D zone coverage (emphasis on sometimes). However, for the most part, I see too much of the same old stuff and, in some cases, a step backward. The powerplay this year has sucked years off my life. I really don’t understand that. That’s a great example of something a hockey coach can have an immediate impact on (or in our case should have had no impact on because it was one thing we were good at).

    A great coach get the most out of his group. Even if he hasn’t got very much to work with. In our case, I don’t see him getting the most out of anyone. Having said that, we’ve got obvious roster holes so I feel for the guy to some extent.

    I’m afraid we’re so close and yet so far away and we aren’t getting any closer. Just enjoying the same view from different places.

  13. Ducey says:

    PhrankLee:
    The systemic arrogance of the organization also seems to have toned down. Funny how crow eating does that. DE and CMcT and KL have left bitter taste in fans mouths. I would never have thought I would be mulling over what Hall might bring in a trade. I find myself doing just that. How else are we going to secure a 1D and 1G?

    Its funny.

    I would think that a level of arrogance is necessary in a job like MacT’s. Listening to the fan base is about the worst thing a GM can do.

    Does he listen to Mark Spector/ Don Cherry crowd who think all the Oilers should do is get tougher trade away anyone (like Petry) who doesn’t play smash mouth hockey? Maybe he should listen to the Gregor’s of the world who think that trading Eberle for a couple of 30 yr old Colby Armstrong clones is the ticket. Or maybe he should listen to the stats guys – who are good at identifying who generates/ prevents shots – but not so good at figuring out how to generate/ prevent shots. Maybe he should fire Eakins after 50 games? Trade Yak after 80 games?

    Isn’t it the height of arrogance to think that we as fans watching the games know better than professional hockey people who are aware of the intimate details of what is going on with individual players?

    Just remember, if the GM starts listening to a segment of the fanbase, it may not be yours :)

  14. hunter1909 says:

    I like the posters who admit to liking Lowetide as much or more than the current state of the actual NHL oilers. I definitely spend more time reading this than watching the oilers since before game 40.

    I read Lowetide from habit, hoping to see yet another one of Lowetide’s hot girls and any news from the eventual franchise bloodletting and autopsy to follow.

    As for the stats, it’s all too much like old engineering textbooks so I channel my inner 4 year old and keep scrolling, hoping unconsciously for another babe,

  15. longway says:

    i don’t know much about hockey, never played, just enjoy the game. and i try not to judge people, but it seems to me that ralph krueger is a well evolved person. i suspect the team really misses him on a personal level, i think he brought light and a lightness to the team.
    maybe eakins is/will turn out to be excellent, but on a cold morning in february, i miss ralph and wish his joy humility passion and balance were still here trying to right this ship…

  16. Halfwise says:

    We’re dealing with humans, so it’s a given that the true causes of performance problems won’t be obvious. What I like about this blog specifically is that LT remains calm and that the commenters don’t all act like 15 year olds.

    I get the “blame Eakins” and “trade Gagner” and “KLowe must go” arguments. 8 years in the wilderness and we still don’t know if there’s a way out. Those who can still be bothered to be here have not found inner peace…

    I think there are three inter-twined causes of the endless suck, and they all need to be cured before we get to the edge of the wilderness and view the Promised Land, never mind begin to enter it.
    1) the mix of the team is wrong. Still too easy to play against in the top half, and weak on C and D
    2) the top talent will not do consistently what is necessary to win games, protecting the puck when they have it, going to the hard places on offence and outplaying the opponent to get the puck back on defence.
    3) the coaching staff can’t find a way to break the bad habits that we see up and down the lineup, of low-skill D doing all they know how to do and high-skill O doing what they do so damned often.

    From a management perspective it’s a tough call as to whether we need more time with the same people reinforcing new habits. Temptation amongst the fanbase is to throw it all away but frankly, getting traded to any other team in the NHL probably looks pretty good. Do you think DD or Mike Brown sob themselves to sleep at night in their new beds?

    When the situation is complex and the way out isn’t clear, one of the management responsibilities is to identify a trigger, a key indicator that focuses the signal so that it stands out from the noise. Another responsibility is to send unmistakable messages to the team regarding expectations and consequences (without demanding of people what they are not capable of achieving).

    I am a fan not a coach, but it seems to me that Oiler management has to decide whether each of the players, including the untouchables, can individually do what is required. Consensus here is that Gagner can not, Yak and Jultz maybe, 4, 14 and 93 capable but far too often careless.

    So a question: How do you coach out “careless” when you have a weak and unbalanced roster? And does coaching out “careless” lead to short term pain for long term pain, or short term pain until what looks like a miracle occurs?

  17. Doug McLachlan says:

    longway,

    This is my sense as well. I know you can’t bring him back as an assistant (and please, please, please lets not flush another head coach) can we try and get some new faces and tallent to work with Eakins on (oh, say the PP) and building some of these guys up.

  18. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Esp. in LaBarbera’s case. That was and is a good signing. If you have a do-over with the same information you still make that bet. Labarbs simply didn’t show up in a short stretch when he couldn’t afford to be bad.

    The signing and the trade were both good managing moves IMO.

    Can’t agree because of the way they justified it. It wasn’t “here’s why he’s a good goalie”, it was “he’s Devan’s friend and a clear #2 and blah blah blah”. A bunch of non-hockey nonsense.

    Also, the value of having a “clear number 2″ is negative, not positive.

  19. jfry says:

    lt, I know that bryzy hasn’t had amazing results, but lately you don’t seem to even speak about him, good or bad. to my mind, picking up a goalie for nothing is a real positive (that we weren’t able to parlay DD into something more is ashame, but not related). his stats suggest he’s replacement level on a team that isn’t.

    i’d have no issue running this pair next year, given we can probably get them both signed for less than 2.5m each. that would basically leave all of our “trade chips” to go after the real items of need (2c and 1d) plus give us a measure of cap flexibility.

    I also think there’s something to be said for starting to develop some consistency, so that people stop worrying about the “lazy susan” approach to GMing that’s already seen almost half a squad turned over.

    if we’re arguing that the coach stays for consistency purposes, then I think it’s time we lock the goalies in, if it’s possible. let’s make the “needs” list shorter so the search can be more focused.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: Can’t agree because of the way they justified it. It wasn’t “here’s why he’s a good goalie”, it was “he’s Devan’s friend and a clear #2 and blah blah blah”. A bunch of non-hockey nonsense.

    Also, the value of having a “clear number 2″ is negative, not positive.

    What are you talking about?

    How the PR dept. sells these things is irrelevant to decision making processes, unless you can show otherwise.

    The big UFA tenders last year were Labarbera, Khudo and Greiss. Landing any was a priority.

    This is a no-brainer.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Fear The Fin
    ‏@fearthefin
    Absolutely shouldn’t start in Sochi. RT @RobertJFTC Guys that have higher save% than Quick over last two seasons include Dubnyk and Nabakov.

    expect Gagner ++ to LAKs for Quick in the off-season.

  22. jfry says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “He has been quick to move out mistakes (Grebeshkov)”

    This line of thought I really don’t follow.

    Esp. in LaBarbera’s case. That was and is a good signing. If you have a do-over with the same information you still make that bet. Labarbs simply didn’t show up in a short stretch when he couldn’t afford to be bad.

    The signing and the trade were both good managing moves IMO.

    I think there are two groups on the LaBarbera signing. I for one, expected poor results from him and didn’t think he was a capable back up for a bad team. nothing about his career suggested he was the best option available in the summer.

    also, having a distinct “#2″ when your GM has already come out questioning your starter…well, that seems like we started the season in a bad spot.

    if Schneider was our first option, Labs isn’t even in the same universe with regards to skill. we entered the season having failed in the goalie market, which is now obvious, since neither tenders that we started with remains with the team.

    I don’t have time right now to find the post, but I went over LAB’s numbers in the summer when everyone was happy and there was nothing positive about what to expect.

    there’s just no way to say that “you do the labs signing again.” I just don’t believe that. he’s had two seasons where he’s been above replacement level, and in those seasons, he played only 15 and 17 games (back up games, for PHX). there’s just nothing in the stats that suggests that he was the right call: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8467391#&navid=nhl-search

  23. linkfromhyrule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    oh no, please no. I hadn’t even thought about that. He’s a stanley cup winning goalie who’s often injured and has a reputation based more on a cup run rather than actual ability.. You’re completely right. It’s khabi 2.0

  24. Jordan says:

    I think most people on this blog would agree that this team performing worse than the sum of its parts right now. So, if that’s the case… why is that so? Is it just coaches? Or is there more to it?

    longway:
    i don’t know much about hockey, never played, just enjoy the game. and i try not to judge people, but it seems to me that ralph krueger is a well evolved person. i suspect the team really misses him on a personal level, i think he brought light and a lightness to the team.
    maybe eakins is/will turn out to be excellent, but on a cold morning in february, i miss ralph and wish his joy humility passion and balance were still here trying to right this ship…

    Halfwise:
    We’re dealing with humans, so it’s a given that the true causes of performance problems won’t be obvious. What I like about this blog specifically is that LT remains calm and that the commenters don’t all act like 15 year olds.

    I think there are three inter-twined causes of the endless suck, and they all need to be cured before we get to the edge of the wilderness and view the Promised Land, never mind begin to enter it.1) the mix of the team is wrong. Still too easy to play against in the top half, and weak on C and D2) the top talent will not do consistently what is necessary to win games, protecting the puck when they have it, going to the hard places on offence and outplaying the opponent to get the puck back on defence.3) the coaching staff can’t find a way to break the bad habits that we see up and down the lineup, of low-skill D doing all they know how to do and high-skill O doing what they do so damned often.

    From a management perspective it’s a tough call as to whether we need more time with the same people reinforcing new habits. Temptation amongst the fanbase is to throw it all away but frankly, getting traded to any other team in the NHL probably looks pretty good. Do you think DD or Mike Brown sob themselves to sleep at night in their new beds?

    When the situation is complex and the way out isn’t clear, one of the management responsibilities is to identify a trigger, a key indicator that focuses the signal so that it stands out from the noise. Another responsibility is to send unmistakable messages to the team regarding expectations and consequences (without demanding of people what they are not capable of achieving).

    I am a fan not a coach, but it seems to me that Oiler management has to decide whether each of the players, including the untouchables, can individually do what is required. Consensus here is that Gagner can not, Yak and Jultz maybe, 4, 14 and 93 capable but far too often careless.

    So a question: How do you coach out “careless” when you have a weak and unbalanced roster? And does coaching out “careless” lead to short term pain for long term pain, or short term pain until what looks like a miracle occurs?

    These comments are clearly related.

    The verbal coming from the GM and from the coach is that they don’t want a high-skill team – they want a 2-way team. However, that’s not the team they have, and they’re losing hard.

    The reason Krueger managed to do so well with the Oilers last year was because they bought in, and were used to their strengths as best they could be.

    I’d be shocked if the difficulties aren’t connected with personality & philosophical differences between Ralph & Dallas, and possibly with the other coaches too.

    The players have done their best, but they are not being played to their strengths in a systemic way. I think a lot of this has been done since November, when the Oilers were clearly up $#!+ creek and changed their systems to help teach the players better habbits.

    Interestingly, the Oilers are getting wins they shouldn’t which is the puck luck they missed at the beginning of the year, even though they are playing worse hockey.

    If the Oilers go back to the system they were running to start the season over the olympic break, and get some goaltending… do more wins this season do more to help this team than losing? I’m not sure where the value is for this team, because I don’t have a good grasp of how the team fits together. I’d bet money there’s better value here than what Dallas is getting from them. How much more value is there for the organization to get some real wins as compared to 2-6 spots on the draft floor?

  25. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: What are you talking about?

    How the PR dept. sells these things is irrelevant to decision making processes, unless you can show otherwise.

    The big UFA tenders last year were Labarbera, Khudo and Greiss. Landing any was a priority.

    This is a no-brainer.

    You’re differentiating the “PR department” from the hockey decision makers? That ignores the way this organization has been run for quite some time now.

    None of the UFAs were “big”, but Bryzgalov or Thomas were clearly the more interesting options if you wanted someone to push the #1 goalie. There were also several trade options out there. Even looking at the 3 guys you mentioned, why take the old one who played for the Coyotes?

  26. sliderule says:

    I think that all the losing has made the cliques on this team fester.

    The last few games it looks like Eberle is doing his best to set up Hall .He has ignored shooting and Nuge and tried to force passes to Hall.

    Then we have Schultz jr looking off Yak on the PP and on breakouts.

    The coach isn’t controlling this in fact he makes it worse by naming scapegoats.If you have ever played on a team you will know how the players especially young ones feed on this.

    The same coach when Hall takes a penalty for childishly mouthing off sits him for one shift.Wow what a lesson.That just divides the team more.

    I think Mact has to step in and tell Eakins and his staff that it’s a team and get them pulling together

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jfry,

    every word out of place. every word.

    Labarbera was a fine signing. just fine.

    1. MacT looked for serious Gs in the Summer (Scneids, Bernier and several Euro and College Gs). He lost on the signings.

    2. Given the field of available options, MacT made a priority of locking in 2 of the strongest available options who would sign. he got them.

    3. Labarbera was a very competent back up at the time. Anyone saying otherwise is off his rocker.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/07/05/edmonton-oilers-sign-proven-backup-goalie-jason-labarbera/

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/7/5/report-edmonton-oilers-to-sign-jason-labarbera

    4. Labarbera failed when opportunity knocked. macT moved on.

    This is a simple story. Let’s not complicate it.

  28. maudite says:

    I’m not so sure LT. I think he still has some solid miles of runway left before people dare scream “bloody murder!”, I’ve been struggling for awhile trying to figure out my biggest concern.

    It’s more to do with cutting Lowe loose at this point but:

    Long Range planning. While they claim there is a game plan it has become blatantly obvious they are still fully flying by the seat of their pants. We went into this season deficient viable options as center and weak on defense and banking on everything breaking right to stand a shot at being in the mix for the wild card. While I don’t believe we are as bad as the record is, I don’t think we are good enough to claim we had a legitimate shot at being near wildcard (if goaltending was floating near .920). They thought solidly in playoff picture (for what it’s worth I had us pegged at likely 10-12th when I was asked).

    The hiring and paid vacations of several coaches and managers really instills no confidence. The scorched earth policy towards anyone that remotely implies there are issues here or expresses dissent with management (small and dumb men over their depth manage business in this manner). We are just floundering and have been for 8 seasons. While the direction we are floundering changes often it never stays constant. Now we are floundering to be a playoff bubble team handing out potentially damaging contracts in years that we might have “lucked” into a serious shot (I’m going with luck as I’m leery they don’t bungle this still) This is a frightening concept and falls squarely on Lowe’s doorstep if this were any business of worth…fair enough the financials are still sound but a better managed product would be making you a lot more money (keeping a monopoly slightly afloat is not all that impressive)

    As for MacT:

    Yes Gordon and Perron are good sure.

    But the bad is bad.

    That Clarkson deal would have been a grave digger. Wipe out at least one of the above contracts worth when viewed historically to issues it caused in cap management for years to come.

    The underlying numbers behind Gagner last year and that contract do not match up. It’s crazy that a NMC is in it. No justifiable reason, even with his leverage, that should be included in a 3 yr 4.8 mil contract. Zero.

    3 years of Ference and a NMC sure. 4 is crazy and we will likely not be too cheerful for the last two of those (5/6 D man making 3.25 mil is not great) and we need functional size and come back with Ference?

    The Dubnyk trade is nasty period. If I’m cutting a goalie and taking on Hendricks brutal contract there is no way I eat money without at least a pick coming back. I’m sorry, I’m fine with Hendricks but once again the back end of that contract is not going to end well either. Basically best explanation is Poile and Lombardi squeezed him on this one…had to and I don’t like the idea of a team that is completely buried with no way out of the bottom getting squeezed at all. No reason to bother at this point. Simply have to mop up mess regardless at the end of the season.

    Jesse jonesu on a two year deal where he is UFA at the end or Teemu Hartikanen on a similar two year deal (his playoff numbers alone last year in the AHL put this guy as a prospect a sane development system would not be finished with yet)

    The handling of Arco. One of the few things that was honestly working early for them and they shuffled it down and in/out of lineup in a oompletely nonsensical fashion. Strictly due to size and not actual effectiveness of play. If this guy was 6 ft tall and weighed 20 more pounds he could have done half as much and he’d be a lock all this year. That is not a good sign.

    What in sam hell does a 26 yr old Will Acton who has proven very little in the AHL justify a two year contract for? (2 way or no, it’s a pretty underwhelming resume that seemed easily behind the curve of a 4 year younger Lander who is off similar size when they signed him…)

    Grebs/Belov/Jones -> with 4.5 million of cap space, this particular off season, I thought this was a needlessly reckless and underwhelming return for your money (cash was king this go round for actual NHL’ers save your long shots for normal years).

    If it was true that Smid was not properly shopped that is also ugly and no way the return on that deal can be justified as shrewd. (even be generous and swap Ference with those two prospects and look forward to the last year of the Ference deal…Good odds we still handily lose it in retrospect)

    I straight up don’t like the Eakins hiring. It really didn’t seem to make any sense from the get go. While I won’t argue it’s boldness it was just a terrible bet, for a new the new GM to make, in this particular circumstance. Team had improved in the standings year over year, your key blue chips appeared to have decent arrows going for them, definitely appear to be entering season with an improved line up…why swap there without letting it run first? Putting down a 4 year term for an unproven guy waiting for his shot to coach in the bigs seemed absurd. I mean I can’t argue Eakins is smart as anyone that comes out of an interview for an assistant job convincing you to fire your present coach would definitely want some security attached to that contract.

    We have had a lot of deck chair moving. I don’t mind it but we are neck and noose locked in a two team heat for a last place lottery win and are down to 1 pick in the top 100…

    I really don’t know yet and sure he’s miles better than tamblowe, That’s like comparing yourself to a piece of dog turd on the sidewalk while discussing food (the half eaten day old mcdonald’s burger in the trash is a step up). Again, I can’t see why people would consider sharpening pitchforks but I sure as hell wouldn’t bet against this ending poorly for even money based on the body of work thus far..

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: You’re differentiating the “PR department” from the hockey decision makers? That ignores the way this organization has been run for quite some time now.

    None of the UFAs were “big”, but Bryzgalov or Thomas were clearly the more interesting options if you wanted someone to push the #1 goalie. There were also several trade options out there. Even looking at the 3 guys you mentioned, why take the old one who played for the Coyotes?

    Because they are. I don’t recall Gazzola or Dittrick or Westcott ever having anything to do with management and until you can prove otherwise, having those guys chat up the new guy and mention that he knows one of the players already on the team is a complete triviality.

    The oilers are stupid enough without us projecting completely bogus bullshit onto them.

    We do not need to make shit up for this team to be tragically bad and worthy of our contempt. Stop it.

  30. Hammers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: What are you talking about?

    How the PR dept. sells these things is irrelevant to decision making processes, unless you can show otherwise.

    The big UFA tenders last year were Labarbera, Khudo and Greiss. Landing any was a priority.

    This is a no-brainer.

    That wasn’t the point I was making . He made a mistake in hiring a 2nd string goalie to back up the guy ( DD ) he said wasn’t good enough . He needed to get another goalie to fight for the #1 spot . My point is he recognized that and got Brz . McT seems to be a GM who will shoulder his decisions right or wrong but correct them very quickly and that’s why Labarbara was delt & Acton sent down . Think of ALL the mistakes Tambo made and for the most part they took him a year or more to change . McT recognizes right away and makes changes right away . Even Grebs it only cost money and was a gamble but he & the coach corrected it .

  31. zatch says:

    My problem with the “Stop saying fire Lowe” crowd is it’s extremely poor cost/benefit analysis. I think at this stage, it’s safe to say there are no repercussions to firing Lowe. The team is 29th and looks likely to stick around those parts. At worst, firing Lowe has no effect, and I certainly agree that it will have no real immediate effect. However, it almost certainly could have a long term positive impact (I strongly believe this). To summarize, there is no compelling reason to NOT fire him and many reasons in favour of firing him. Even the effort it would take is minimal. Saying it’s foolish to address a problem with long term implications because there is likely no short term impact shows almost a complete lack of logic, and that’s sugarcoating it.

  32. denny33 says:

    book¡je,

    Regardless of what anyone thinks of the problems with the players on this team, I think it is impossible to ignore that the coaching has not brought out the best in them – Eakins has not optimized the hand dealt to him. I think when looking at a team at the bottom of the NHL, that will always be the case. Being that pathetic takes a combination of coaching, GM, and player failure. The powerplay this year is evidence of a coaching (and maybe meddling GM) failure.
    ****************************************************************************
    Post of the day.

    This is the most eloquent summary of our situation and I find it to be devastatingly true.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hammers: That wasn’t the point I was making .

    You are probably confused because I was responding to someone else.

    Hammers: He made a mistake in hiring a 2nd string goalie to back up the guy ( DD ) he said wasn’t good enough .

    Start from reality first.

    He tried for a variety of Gs. In the ACTUAL circumstances in which the decision was made Labarbera was and is an exceptional signing.

    If he chose Labarbera over Bernier… well, that would be a mistake.

  34. steveb12344 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    LT,

    I mean obviously these folks aren’t terribly learned about adv. stats. otherwise they wouldn’t be using +/-… but this really looks like this is the thought process:

    Again, I’m not against advanced stats. I believe they have value, and are a much better way to break down a game than with just traditional stats alone.

    However I really don’t get comments like this. +/- is the total of goals scored while on the ice at even strength for and against.

    Corsi is the total of shot attempts while on the ice at even strength for and against.

    So what you are saying is that it is stupid to count the goals because shot attempts are really what’s important if you want to see how the game was played.

    Last night’s game was a good example where The Oilers lost the Corsi battle handily, but scored more goals and won the game.

    Maybe they need to change the game completely to more accurately reflect the true winners of the game. Just do away with goalies, since every game is a small sample size where it is just chalked up to luck as to whether he performs better or worse than his historical average.

    Goals don’t really matter anyways, since their value actually pales in comparison to shot attempts, and we know that all players are going to score at a rate of the NHL average anyways With any aberrations over the small sample size of a season surely working its way back to the mean eventually.

    So that’s it, we should just do away with nets. Prop up a 4×8 sheet of plywood instead, and they can just keep track of how many times someone tries to shoot at it. It could be fun, and exciting with tonnes of scoring kind of like basketball.

    Of course there would still be the problem of having these stats assigned to individuals, while there are 11 (or 9 if you go with plywood instead of a goalie) other players on the ice simultaneously making things happen that may or may not have been a result of actions by the individual.

    So maybe instead of 5×5 we could just break it down to 1 on 1 on the ice and see how many shot attempts each player can get towards the sheet of plywood.

    I’m not sure if this version of the game would be more entertaining, but Corsi would really be the only stat that matters.

  35. maudite says:

    Oh and 3 face punchers grabbed in a panic to screw yourself right tight to the 50 limit was also senseless. Getting anything for Brown later helps but SMAC having a contract still slightly offsets that plus.

  36. Hammers says:

    maudite:
    I’m not so sure LT.I think he still has some solid miles of runway left before people dare scream “bloody murder!”, I’ve been struggling for awhile trying to figure out my biggest concern.

    It’s more to do with cutting Lowe loose at this point but:

    Long Range planning.While they claim there is a game plan it has become blatantly obvious they are still fully flying by the seat of their pants.We went into this season deficient viable options as center and weak on defense and banking on everything breaking right to stand a shot at being in the mix for the wild card.While I don’t believe we are as bad as the record is, I don’t think we are good enough to claim we had a legitimate shot at being near wildcard (if goaltending was floating near .920).They thought solidly in playoff picture (for what it’s worth I had us pegged at likely 10-12th when I was asked).

    The hiring and paid vacations of several coaches and managers really instills no confidence.The scorched earth policy towards anyone that remotely implies there are issues here or expresses dissent with management (small and dumb men over their depthmanage business in this manner).We are just floundering and have been for 8 seasons.While the direction we are floundering changes often it never stays constant.Now we are floundering to be a playoff bubble team handing out potentially damaging contracts in years that we might have “lucked” into a serious shot (I’m going with luck as I’m leery they don’t bungle this still)This is a frightening concept and falls squarely on Lowe’s doorstep if this were any business of worth…fair enough the financials are still sound but a better managed product would be making you a lot more money (keeping a monopoly slightly afloat is not all that impressive)

    As for MacT:

    Yes Gordon and Perron are good sure.

    But the bad is bad.

    That Clarkson deal would have been a grave digger.Wipe out at least one of the above contracts worth when viewed historically to issues it caused in cap management for years to come.

    The underlying numbers behind Gagner last year and that contract do not match up.It’s crazy that a NMC is in it.No justifiable reason, even with his leverage, that should be included in a 3 yr 4.8 mil contract.Zero.

    3 years of Ference and a NMC sure.4 is crazy and we will likely not be too cheerful for the last two of those (5/6 D man making 3.25 mil is not great) and we need functional size and come back with Ference?

    The Dubnyk trade is nasty period.If I’m cutting a goalie and taking on Hendricks brutal contract there is no way I eat money without at least a pick coming back.I’m sorry, I’m fine with Hendricks but once again the back end of that contract is not going to end well either.Basically best explanation is Poile and Lombardi squeezed him on this one…had to and I don’t like the idea of a team that is completely buried with no way out of the bottom getting squeezed at all.No reason to bother at this point.Simply have to mop up mess regardless at the end of the season.

    Jesse jonesu on a two year deal where he is UFA at the end or Teemu Hartikanen on a similar two year deal (his playoff numbers alone last year in the AHL put this guy as a prospect a sane development system would not be finished with yet)

    The handling of Arco.One of the few things that was honestly working early for them and they shuffled it down and in/out of lineup in a oompletely nonsensical fashion.Strictly due to size and not actual effectiveness of play.If this guy was 6 ft tall and weighed 20 more pounds he could have done half as much and he’d be a lock all this year.That is not a good sign.

    What in sam hell does a 26 yr old Will Acton who has proven very little in the AHL justify a two year contract for?(2 way or no, it’s a pretty underwhelming resume that seemed easily behind the curve of a 4 year younger Lander who is off similar size when they signed him…)

    Grebs/Belov/Jones -> with 4.5 million of cap space, this particular off season, I thought this was a needlessly reckless and underwhelming return for your money (cash was king this go round for actual NHL’ers save your long shots for normal years).

    If it was true that Smid was not properly shopped that is also ugly and no way the return on that deal cannot be justified as shrewd.(even be generous and swap Ference with those two prospects and look forward to the last year of the Ference deal…Good odds we still handily lose it in retrospect)

    I straight up don’t like the Eakins hiring.It really didn’t seem to make any sense from the get go.While I won’t argue it’s boldness it was just a terrible bet, for a new the new GM to make, in this particular circumstance.Team had improved in the standings year over year, your key blue chips appeared to have decent arrows going for them, definitely appear to be entering season with an improved line up…why swap there without letting it run first?Putting down a 4 year term for an unproven guy waiting for his shot to coach in the bigs seemed absurd.I mean I can’t argue Eakins is smart as anyone that comes out of an interview for an assistant job convincing you to fire your present coach would definitely want some security attached to that contract.

    We have had a lot of deck chair moving.I don’t mind it but we are neck and noose locked in a two team heat for a last place lottery win and are down to 1 pick in the top 100…

    I really don’t know yet and sure he’s miles better than tamblowe,That’s like comparing yourself to a piece of dog turd on the sidewalk while discussing food (the half eaten day old mcdonald’s burger in the trash is a step up).Again, I can’t see why people would consider sharpening pitchforks but I sure as hell wouldn’t bet against this ending poorly for even money based on the body of work thus far..

    Your opinion but your wrong on a few points Belov being just 1 of them . Any time you get the guy other teams including Pittsburg wanted you go for it . I also don’t like Eakins but why was he being interviewed by so many other teams . They had to see something we don’t but McT did . This is why LT’s blog is so good it lets many of us say what we want when none of us have a clue how hard it is to get the players you want .

  37. denny33 says:

    maudite,

    While I don’t believe we are as bad as the record is,
    *******************************************************
    If I had a nickel for every time I have seen that line in here, I would be a very rich man….

    This team just generated 5 shots on net in the 3rd period against the worst team in hockey…

  38. russ99 says:

    I just hope MacT has learned his lesson and will stop telegraphing what he wants to do to the entire league through the press.

    I’m OK with non-specific generalizations in the press then real results when it comes to trades and signings.

    BTW: I’d love to see the Oilers pro scouting department kicked to the curb vastly more than Lowe, the assistant coaches or Eakins, and that’s saying something.

    Seems like MacT is battling their judgements rather than the scouts being a support system. Quite a change from Tambellini and that awesome Oil Change clip where he couldn’t decide on acquiring Smithson last deadline and pretty much having Morey Gare make the decision.

  39. Ducey says:

    Jordan:
    I think most people on this blog would agree that this team performing worse than the sum of its parts right now.So, if that’s the case… why is that so? Is it just coaches?Or is there more to it?

    These comments are clearly related.

    The verbal coming from the GM and from the coach is that they don’t want a high-skill team – they want a 2-way team.However, that’s not the team they have, and they’re losing hard.

    The reason Krueger managed to do so well with the Oilers last year was because they bought in, and were used to their strengths as best they could be.

    I’d be shocked if the difficulties aren’t connected with personality & philosophical differences between Ralph & Dallas, and possibly with the other coaches too.

    The players have done their best, but they are not being played to their strengths in a systemic way.I think a lot of this has been done since November, when the Oilers were clearly up $#!+ creek and changed their systems to help teach the players better habbits.

    Interestingly, the Oilers are getting wins they shouldn’t which is the puck luck they missed at the beginning of the year, even though they are playing worse hockey.

    If the Oilers go back to the system they were running to start the season over the olympic break, and get some goaltending… do more wins this season do more to help this team than losing? I’m not sure where the value is for this team, because I don’t have a good grasp of how the team fits together.I’d bet money there’s better value here than what Dallas is getting from them.How much more value is there for the organization to get some real wins as compared to 2-6 spots on the draft floor?

    I get the sense that the Oilers are in the process of developing their players thru dedication on some specific, basic skills. They could play a different more open system and perhaps win more/ play better but they won’t win enough.

    As much as people pine for the days of Ralph Krueger, the fact is that his team was terrible 5 x 5 and made a living on special teams. Many times his players looked lost too. It was hard to tell what kind of system he was trying to run.

    I am hoping there is something at work given the terrible shots against in the last three games. This coupled with the coach’s comment about trying to win 1-0 gives me the idea they are concentrating on defensive zone coverage, keeping shots to the outside, eliminating open guys in the slot, etc. Once they nail that down, they will develop other parts of the game (breakouts for example).

    I am not smart enough to figure it out but they have won 4 of 5 and the goaltending has been pretty nice. Other than the mess in BOS, the goals against have largely been bad luck or on the goalie. There have been fewer open guys in front of the net. Maybe the improvement in save % is not just a coincidence?

    Mind you, I am not sure I have seen any improvment in any areas from the team (except save % and wins). Maybe I am giving too much credit to the coaches in trying to understand the recent shooting galleries.

  40. FastOil says:

    Remaining positive is a good thing unless it turns out to be naivete or willing blindness. Perhaps the Oilers are at a bump in the road but it is seemingly more unlikely with each game. That the cash strapped Avalanche with a half crazed coach are doing what they are makes the Oilers even more of a disgrace. Losing games is different than playing like you have no self respect. No wonder Katz moved.

    There are signs that the thinking is still highly flawed, one being consistently overpaying marginal players, that they don’t have to, in a capped league.

  41. steveb12344 says:

    maudite:

    The Dubnyk trade is nasty period.If I’m cutting a goalie and taking on Hendricks brutal contract there is no way I eat money without at least a pick coming back.I’m sorry, I’m fine with Hendricks but once again the back end of that contract is not going to end well either.Basically best explanation is Poile and Lombardi squeezed him on this one…had to and I don’t like the idea of a team that is completely buried with no way out of the bottom getting squeezed at all.No reason to bother at this point.Simply have to mop up mess regardless at the end of the season.

    There’s lots to work with here, but I will go with this one.

    Firstly you think this is a nasty trade because MacT didn’t get a mid-round pick to go with Hendricks?

    The only squeezing that I saw was Mact somehow squeezing Hendricks, and Scrivens out of a third round pick, and an underperforming UFA that will likely be living in Europe come this time next year.

    He should get a freakin medal for that! Man, you guys are a tough crowd.

  42. maudite says:

    Hammers,

    So you think us managing to sign Clarkson to that contract would have been a good thing?

    Or

    Us trading 2 2nd round picks for Douglas Murray last year would have been a good thing?

    Any time you are off chasing shiny babbles because other guys are chasing shiny babbles while overlooking better value you are losing the game of efficiency. Don’t care who else is there with you.

  43. jfry says:

    Like I said in my post, there are two very different stances on labs. You are on the pro labs side. I am not. I think the results were predictably poor. Point 4 was the part that I saw as predictable.

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    jfry,

    every word out of place. every word.

    Labarbera was a fine signing. just fine.

    1. MacT looked for serious Gs in the Summer (Scneids, Bernier and several Euro and College Gs). He lost on the signings.

    2. Given the field of available options, MacT made a priority of locking in 2 of the strongest available options who would sign. he got them.

    3. Labarbera was a very competent back up at the time. Anyone saying otherwise is off his rocker.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/07/05/edmonton-oilers-sign-proven-backup-goalie-jason-labarbera/

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/7/5/report-edmonton-oilers-to-sign-jason-labarbera

    4. Labarbera failed when opportunity knocked. macT moved on.

    This is a simple story. Let’s not complicate it.

  44. Henry says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Fear The Fin
    ‏@fearthefin
    Absolutely shouldn’t start in Sochi. RT @RobertJFTC Guys that have higher save% than Quick over last two seasons include Dubnyk and Nabakov.

    expect Gagner ++ to LAKs for Quick in the off-season.

    I worry about Gagner for Dustin Brown’s eight year contract and 16 points this year. Very worried.

    I wonder if Lombardi investigated Quick to the Islanders (or Oilers) before getting a 3rd for Scrivens.

  45. maudite says:

    steveb12344,

    UFA goalie -> 3rd round pick….maybe he signs here…hopefully signs here…maybe he doesn’t. Hopefully he also outperforms Dubnyk over the span of his career as well.

    Contract length and future cap implications have to come into play. Hold onto that medal and I’ll bring the tail. There’s a lot of years left on that contract well on the high end for what Hendricks does bring. Seems wise to factor those in before I’d go about pinning anything.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Because they are. I don’t recall Gazzola or Dittrick or Westcott ever having anything to do with management and until you can prove otherwise, having those guys chat up the new guy and mention that he knows one of the players already on the team is a complete triviality.

    You’re remembering those sentiments coming from those guys? I’m remembering it from MacTavish and crew. Perhaps I’m wrong. Not having any luck finding stuff from the day of the signing.

  47. book¡je says:

    denny33:
    maudite,

    While I don’t believe we are as bad as the record is,
    *******************************************************
    If I had a nickel for every time I have seen that line in here, I would be a very rich man….

    This team just generated 5 shots on net in the 3rd period against the worst team in hockey…

    According to a fairly comprehensive effort using Google search for this and related phrases on LT’s website, you would actually have $0.70. I don’t know your definition of being a very rich man, but for me $0.70 is not very significant at all.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    At this point in time, I think the success of this rebuild hinges on the question, which of Eberle, RNH and Yakupov project as outscorers against the toughs? MacT’s legacy will stand or fall based on his ability to project the right answer to that question and build out the roster accordingly. In other words, he has to figure this out before the assets decline appreciably (e.g. Gagner).

    My very real concern is there’s a distinct possibility that Yakupov might be the only one of these three to attain that level, and it will come with a caveat as he will likely always bleed some goals against.

    In other words, the Oil secured 3 straights 1OVs and they may end up having one dominant outscorer (Hall) to show for it and another with some defensive warts (Yak) with the last becoming an excellent outscoring 2C (Nuge).

    I love RNH’s skillset but is there anyone on this board that can seriously see him going head to head against the Kopitars, Getzlafs, Thorntons & Keslers of this league over the next three years and not having his lunch eaten? The Nuge is our Gretzky lite, and like Gretz, he will not face the hard matchups come Cup time. Messier played against Trottier and Otto, not Wayner, and this dominant twoway 1C remains one of the two glaring holes in this roster.

    With Eberle, I used to think we had found our next Kurri: an elite one shot sniper with great puck sense and strong two way play – but Ebs is MILES away from being strong in his own zone. So again, a key building block that projects most favorably as a second line outscorer against the softs (and oh yeah, we’re paying him $6mil per).

    In conclusion, if MacT is considering what a legitimate Cup contending roster might look like, this might be a reasonable projection…

    Hall/?/Yakupov?
    ?/RNH/Eberle
    Hendricks/Gordon/Perron
    Khaira/Pitlick/Moroz

    Nurse/JSchultz
    Marincin/Klefbom
    Ference/Petry

    Scrivens/?

    I’ve been resisting this thought for a long time, but I think MacT’s ‘bold move’ has to be a) resign Hemsky to play 3RW b) keep Perron in the Top 6 c) Trade Eberle for immediate help with a veteran Top 4 D with pedigree. And most importantly, d) turn over every rock necessary to find the dominant 1C in this year’s draft. ffs if the Sharks can land Couture at #9, surely this team can finally fill the hole on this roster that has existed since Doug Weight left with a top three pick!!!

    Magnificent Bastard? I think this upcoming draft will decide whether that title is deserved or hype.

  49. hankster says:

    Ducey: Its funny.

    I would think that a level of arrogance is necessary in a job like MacT’s.Listening to the fan base is about the worst thing a GM can do.

    Isn’t it the height of arrogance to think that we as fans watching the games know better than professional hockey people who are aware of the intimate details of what is going on with individual players?

    What’s funny ? GM listening to the group think here and keeping “vital/Core” and praying kids develop on their own without vet leadership. Second last in the entire league with that many high end draft picks. How’s that strategy working out ?

    If they don’t address the real issues fast, LT will have prospect porn on for everyone years to come.

    As for Rock m sockem, hate to break to you, the last two trades netted hendricks and frasor. MacT does think the team needs toughness.

    professional hockey people, do Steve Ott, Lars Eller, B Trotz, and Ray Ferraro qualify? They’re the few are were brave or dumb enough to publicly say something that is well known throughout the league. The oilers and Islanders are not that different in the last decade.

    MacT will have to make a bold move with a shakeup to the core, too bad for all the Eberle, Gagner and Hemsky fans out there. I like to make the playoffs, not perpetually discussing prospects and how great the 4th D is doing filling in for 1D role.

    So LT’s “didn’t trade away a vital player” is a positive ? I disagree to the Nth degree.

  50. hunter1909 says:

    Lowe will resign. My reckoning is any time before the draft.

  51. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    steveb12344: Again, I’m not against advanced stats.I believe they have value, and are a much better way to break down a game than with just traditional stats alone.

    However I really don’t get comments like this.+/- is the total of goals scored while on the ice at even strength for and against.

    Corsi is the total of shot attempts while on the ice at even strength for and against.

    So what you are saying is that it is stupid to count the goals because shot attempts are really what’s important if you want to see how the game was played.

    Last night’s game was a good example where The Oilers lost the Corsi battle handily, but scored more goals and won the game.

    Maybe they need to change the game completely to more accurately reflect the true winners of the game. Just do away with goalies, since every game is a small sample size where it is just chalked up to luck as to whether he performs better or worse than his historical average.

    Goals don’t really matter anyways, since their value actually pales in comparison to shot attempts, and we know that all players are going to score at a rate of the NHL average anywaysWith any aberrations over the small sample size of a season surely working its way back to the mean eventually.

    So that’s it, we should just do away with nets.Prop up a 4×8 sheet of plywood instead, and they can just keep track of how many times someone tries to shoot at it.It could be fun, and exciting with tonnes of scoring kind of like basketball.

    Of course there would still be the problem of having these stats assigned to individuals, while there are 11 (or 9 if you go with plywood instead of a goalie) other players on the ice simultaneously making things happen that may or may not have been a result of actions by the individual.

    So maybe instead of 5×5 we could just break it down to 1 on 1 on the ice and see how many shot attempts each player can get towards the sheet of plywood.

    I’m not sure if this version of the game would be more entertaining, but Corsi would really be the only stat that matters.

    C’mon… at least show some familiarity with the concepts you are using and how they are deployed before going on a tirade that’s out of date for 2006.

    +/- is an extraordinarily useless stat. From nitpicky things like empty net goals to serious faults like failure to account for save % and shooting % to linemates to opposition to everything in between, it simply adds very little knowledge about what actually happened.

    You are better off simply reading the boxcars if you want to know who scored and the situation.

    It is most definitely not “advanced” in any serious way and should never be used to declare a player good/bad with any confidence especially in light of more important data, from boxcars on down.

    Corsi is a completely different beast. It offers a much greater sample size. It shouldn’t be looked at on its own. It shouldn’t be taken as a be-all-end-all. It shouldn’t be thought of as a prediction.

  52. Lois Lowe says:

    Henry: I worry about Gagner for Dustin Brown’s eight year contract and 16 points this year.Very worried.

    Speaking of which, who is winning the bet between Woodguy and DSF?

  53. Henry says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I’m not familiar with the bet. Was this a Wellwood/Gagner thing?

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: You’re remembering those sentiments coming from those guys? I’m remembering it from MacTavish and crew. Perhaps I’m wrong. Not having any luck finding stuff from the day of the signing.

    Let’s say they did mention it.

    Let’s say MacT said something like this: “And, Jason and Devan know each other, they train together, so Jason should be able to fit in with our room without much effort.”

    Let’s say that happened.

    So what?

    It’s a vaguely interesting triviality. It’s irrelevant.

  55. steveb12344 says:

    maudite:
    steveb12344,

    UFA goalie -> 3rd round pick….maybe he signs here…hopefully signs here…maybe he doesn’t.Hopefully he also outperforms Dubnyk over the span of his career as well.

    Contract length and future cap implications have to come into play.Hold onto that medal and I’ll bring the tail.There’s a lot of years left on that contract well on the high end for what Hendricks does bring.Seems wise to factor those in before I go about pinning anything.

    Well let’s see. The Oilers record since the trade 4-4-1

    Hendricks: 9gp 2g 0a 2p +/- E 20pims

    Dubnyk: Started twice in 9 games since the trade. Lost both games 5-4 (one in shootout) sporting a 4.35 GAA, with a .850 SP in Defensively solid Nashville Predator silks.

    It’s not like he’s up against Rinne for playing time. Trotts has sat Dubnyk for 6 of the last 7 games in favour of Carter Hutton and his whole 29 games of NHL experience, and his .906 SP

    I liked Dubnyk and wanted to see him succeed. Sadly his ship has sailed and he will likely need a stint in Europe or Russia with much success to earn another shot with an NHL team.

    So once again I ask you: Who squeezed who?

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, lest anyone think I’m undervaluing Eberle as a legitimate top line outscorer in this assessment, I would ask ‘why is he not on the Olympic Team?’ Honestly, I think the only reason he even got invited to the camp is a push from Lowe along with his WJ pedigree.

    I believe the GMs around the league see Eberle for what he is – a supremely talented, soft mins outscorer with inconsistent effort on the backcheck. As LT has shown us, he’s a complimentary player. He doesn’t drive the bus.

  57. Derek says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Btw, lest anyone think I’m undervaluing Eberle as a legitimate top line outscorer in this assessment, I would ask ‘why is he not on the Olympic Team?’ Honestly, I think the only reason he even got invited to the camp is a push from Lowe along with his WJ pedigree.

    I believe the GMs around the league see Eberle for what he is – a supremely talented, soft mins outscorer with inconsistent effort on the backcheck. As LT has shown us, he’s a complimentary player. He doesn’t drive the bus.

    Are you suggesting that since Jordan Eberle did not make the Canadian Olympic squad he is not a legitimate top line forward in the NHL?

  58. Caramel Obvious says:

    I don’t see how anyone could watch the Oilers and not conclude that the problem is the players.

    Experiment. Next game count offsides. I guarantee you the Oilers will go offside more than the other team. Why is that?

    Experiment. Next game count completed passes. I guarantee you that the Oilers will complete fewer passes. Why is that?

    This is a team whose players, including their best players, can’t pass, can’t take a pass, go offside on the rush continually, lose battles on the boards, routinely fly the zone, pass to nobody on the powerplay, defensemen whose only move is to bank it off the glass. It’s a total shit show.

    Moreover, none of this is new. Last year’s team was terrible too. A team that gave up breakaways game after game but never got any themselves. I mean I guess it is possible they went from one bad coach to another. Myself, I just don’t think they have enough talent.

  59. goldenchild says:

    Stauffer opens with a comment on Gagner trade talk saying he could see it and there is a way around the ‘no trade’. This is happening and probably soon, Stauffers comments are almost always with some knowledge of whats going on inside sometimes its code and sometiimes just flat out. On the day of the Dubynyk and Scrivens trades he tweeted in the morining something about how many games have the Oilers goalies stolen. Samwise is on his way out, will they get the right return? A goddamn NHL Dman that can play? no idea

  60. maudite says:

    steveb12344,

    Again well let’s see:

    Small sample size goalie hoping to establish himself somewhere…UFA at end of year. One of a pool of tenders you might sign for nothing in off season in a platoon type scenario (say Khudobin/Scrivens)

    Guy that very likely will not live up to way too long a term at too high of dollar for player type contract

    For:
    Removing a goalie who is struggling while retaining half his salary and quite possibly the highest third round pick in the draft…of which you already have no second pick in and are still definitely a ways from possessing a stocked pipeline.

    You keep salary in that deal you should have gotten a later round pick thrown in. You are eating a lot of real dollars for a team that is quite mindful of spending real dollars.

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    Derek: Are you suggesting that since Jordan Eberle did not make the Canadian Olympic squad he is not a legitimate top line forward in the NHL?

    I am suggesting he is not a legitimate 1st line, touch matchups outscorer based on all the data we have available AND the assessment of other NHL GMs based on the Oly selection is also worrisome.

    He has the offensive skills to be a legitimate 1RW, but imo, his 200ft game is lacking and not trending favorably towards becoming a legitimate tough matchup winger.

    You CAN win a Cup with this guy. 2line outscorers are very valuable. But let’s not assume we have 1line RW done and dusted when Eberle does not have a complete game and Yakupov is a huge work in progress.

  62. maudite says:

    The expressed goal is to build a perennial contender. It is a chess game to get and stay there.

    “woohoo we took out a pawn!”

    Isn’t a good enough reason to ignore the cost of moving said pawn later in the game.

  63. Derek says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    I don’t see how anyone could watch the Oilers and not conclude that the problem is the players.

    Experiment.Next game count offsides.I guarantee you the Oilers will go offside more than the other team.Why is that?

    Experiment.Next game count completed passes.I guarantee you that the Oilers will complete fewer passes.Why is that?

    This is a team whose players, including their best players, can’t pass, can’t take a pass, go offside on the rush continually, lose battles on the boards, routinely fly the zone, pass to nobody on the powerplay, defensemen whose only move is to bank it off the glass.It’s a total shit show.

    Moreover, none of this is new.Last year’s team was terrible too.A team that gave up breakaways game after game but never got any themselves.I mean I guess it is possible they went from one bad coach to another.Myself, I just don’t think they have enough talent.

    Experiment: Read or listen to the oppositions view on the Oilers. See Kesler, Ott, or Eller talking about Edmonton playing junior, or a pond hockey style, cheating all over the ice.

    Players speak in cliches constantly and typically take the safe route when conducting interviews. They never really say much of anything. Unless of course they’re talking about the young, up and coming Oilers who can’t seem to find success.

    I’m not convinced that firing Kevin Lowe or Dallas Eakins is going to teach Hall, Eberle, Gagner, Yakupov, Perron, and Ryan Jones that cheating for offense in every situation is not conducive to being a successful hockey team.

    Edit: I’m not arguing anything Caramel says, i’m just piggybacking his experiment idea.

  64. Logan91 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I am suggesting he is not a legitimate 1st line, touch matchups outscorer based on all the data we have available AND the assessment of other NHL GMs based on the Oly selection is also worrisome.

    He has the offensive skills to be a legitimate 1RW, but imo, his 200ft game is lacking and not trending favorably towards becoming a legitimate tough matchup winger.

    You CAN win a Cup with this guy. 2line outscorers are very valuable. But let’s not assume we have 1line RW done and dusted when Eberle does not have a complete game and Yakupov is a huge work in progress.

    Question for you, if it was your choice what team would you trade Eberle too?

  65. The Great One says:

    Lois Lowe: Speaking of which, who is winning the bet between Woodguy and DSF?

    Woodguy conceded defeat quite some time ago.

    Worth noting that, over the past 3 seasons, Brown has outscored Hemsky 89-80.

    No idea what’s wrong with Brown this season although his shooting percentage has dropped to 7% from over 12% last season.

  66. steveb12344 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: C’mon… at least show some familiarity with the concepts you are using and how they are deployed before going on a tirade that’s out of date for 2006.

    +/- is an extraordinarily useless stat. From nitpicky things like empty net goals to serious faults like failure to account for save % and shooting % to linemates to opposition to everything in between, it simply adds very little knowledge about what actually happened.

    You are better off simply reading the boxcars if you want to know who scored and the situation.

    It is most definitely not “advanced” in any serious way and should never be used to declare a player good/bad with any confidence especially in light of more important data, from boxcars on down.

    Corsi is a completely different beast. It offers a much greater sample size. It shouldn’t be looked at on its own. It shouldn’t be taken as a be-all-end-all. It shouldn’t be thought of as a prediction.

    First of all I was obviously being sarcastic.

    Secondly I agree that +/- is a pretty useless stat, and for the most part everything else you are saying here.

    Other than empty net goals, what really is the difference between counting shot attempts, and goals other than goals decide who wins or loses and shot attempts look really nice on a spreadsheet.

    Almost every argument against +/- can be used against Corsi as well.

    They are extremely flawed metrics that lend a little insight and nothing more.

    Line up all the things that go into playing an NHL hockey game. The truth is that while shot attempts have their role in the game, they really are only a very small part of everything that happens to make up an NHL hockey game.

    The real thing that gets me though is how it’s brought down to an individual level, while there is absolutely nothing individual about a game where 12 players are on the ice interacting with each other and making (or not making) their own individual contributions to the shot attempt by their team of 6 players.

    I fully acknowledge that there is brilliant work being done by some very intelligent people in this field. Though for all the geniuses out there doing groundbreaking work. there is also imo some that just abuse them as a means to show everyone they are smarter than all the non-believers without even really understanding them themselves.

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    Based on his play currently, I suspect if Jordan Eberle is matched up against a Jere Lehtinen or Henrik Zetterberg type player, he loses that matchup all day, every day.

  68. maudite says:

    As far as Dubnyk’s performance goes:

    I think it’s pretty hard not to consider stress and confidence not having a pretty large factor in his downfall judging by results. Contract year, coming into year you know you have to shine because as good as you played last year they were looking to replace you, stumble out of gate and get blamed for everything (even though a few points on that save percentage suffered due to coaching/poor team defense and being the goalie who had the biggest adjustment to make due to league rule changes….because you are a little over an inch shorter than the guy they made exceptions for), get dealt with the idea that this is likely your last shot at a decent contract next year…fail.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    Logan91: Question for you, if it was your choice what team would you trade Eberle too?

    The team that will give the best asset in return.

    I think GMs make a big mistake targeting specific players, when what they should be doing is targeting market conditions. Perron for Paajarvi is a good example of this.

    Both LA and Vancouver are dying on the vine for offense right now, and both of those GMs will be under significant pressure to make the playoffs. Granted they’re division rivals, but dangling Eberle to those teams might bring back a seriously good defenseman.

  70. Derek says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Based on his play currently, I suspect if Jordan Eberle is matched up against a Jere Lehtinen or Henrik Zetterberg type player, he loses that matchup all day, every day.

    I agree that Jordan Eberle is not a well rounded, 2 way player at this point.

    I take issue with the fact that just because he’s not on the Canadian olympic team, or wouldn’t win a match up vs a former Conn Smyth winner, or a 3 time former Selke winner that this proves your point.

    That’s quite a journey you take to reach your conclusion.

  71. Ducey says:

    hankster: What’s funny ?GM listening to the group think here and keeping “vital/Core” and praying kids develop on their own without vet leadership.Second last in the entire league with that many high end draft picks.How’s that strategy working out ?

    If they don’t address the real issues fast, LT will have prospect porn on for everyone years to come.

    As for Rock m sockem, hate to break to you, the last two trades netted hendricks and frasor.MacT does think the team needs toughness.

    professional hockey people,do Steve Ott, Lars Eller, B Trotz, and Ray Ferraro qualify?They’re the few are were brave or dumb enough to publicly say something that is well known throughout the league. The oilers and Islanders are not that different in the last decade.

    MacT will have to make a bold move with a shakeup to the core, too bad for all the Eberle, Gagner and Hemsky fans out there.I like to make the playoffs, not perpetually discussing prospects and how great the 4th D is doing filling in for 1D role.

    So LT’s “didn’t trade away a vital player” is a positive ?I disagree to the Nth degree.

    1. My point was that MacT does not and should not listen to the fanbase. You have responded by suggesting he he has made a mistake listening to the “groupthink” here. Try to keep up.

    2. The team should have prospects regardless of where they are in the standings. LT loves prospects. So do I. If you don’t, there are other places to go.

    3. I am not saying the teams doesn’t need toughness. I am saying the GM shouldn’t be adding toughness because the fanbase tells him too. For many, its that simple: get tougher, win more. Its not that simple.

    3. MacT should not be making decisions based on anything Steve Ott has to say, remarks Eller and Trotz later recanted, or anything the MSM uses to fill airtime. There are lots of similar comments from many people complimentary of the team and its players. Why don’t you rely on those?

    4. You seem like the type of guy that would love to dump half the team’s picks and young players in exchange for vets and established players. Once the team makes the playoffs for a few years, you will be the first one bitching about how they don’t have the skilled players necessary to be challenging for the Cup. Or how Eberle is putting up 60 points a year while the vets traded for him are in decline.

  72. Mr DeBakey says:

    steveb12344: Almost every argument against +/- can be used against Corsi as well.

    Not quite
    Save percentage matters for one and not the other
    And
    the other is Sample Size

  73. steveb12344 says:

    maudite:
    steveb12344,

    Again well let’s see:

    Small sample size goalie hoping to establish himself somewhere…UFA at end of year.One of a pool of tenders you might sign for nothing in off season in a platoon type scenario (say Khudobin/Scrivens)

    Guy that very likely will not live up to way too longa term at too high of dollar for player type contract

    For:
    Removing a goalie who is struggling while retaining half his salary and quite possibly the highest third round pick in the draft…of which you already have no second pick in and are still definitely a ways from possessing a stocked pipeline.

    You keep salary in that deal you should have gotten a later round pick thrown in.You are eating a lot of real dollars for a team that is quite mindful of spending real dollars.

    Edmonton gave up next to nothing (third round pick) and less than nothing (Dubnyk’s last days as an NHL’er) for a goalie that has the best save percentage in the league by anyone not named Svedberg, Jones, Stalock, or Talbot. Who may or may not resign here, but there is a reasonable chance that he may decide he likes it here and resign anyways. As well as a guy who is signed for a few more years, and while it may be a bit of an overpay he has looked good here so far and addresses an area of need for the club.

    I’m not saying the deals are something spectacular, and obviously the medal comment was a little facetious. I just think that in no way, shape, or form did MacT get squeezed out of anything, and in fact was a winner in these particular deals. Even if only marginally.

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    steveb12344: First of all I was obviously being sarcastic.

    Secondly I agree that +/- is a pretty useless stat, and for the most part everything else you are saying here.

    Other than empty net goals, what really is the difference between counting shot attempts, and goals other than goals decide who wins or loses and shot attempts look really nice on a spreadsheet.

    Almost every argument against +/- can be used against Corsi as well.

    They are extremely flawed metrics that lend a little insight and nothing more.

    Line up all the things that go into playing an NHL hockey game. The truth is that while shot attempts have their role in the game, they really are only a very small part of everything that happens to make up an NHL hockey game.

    The real thing that gets me though is how it’s brought down to an individual level, while there is absolutely nothing individual about a game where 12 players are on the ice interacting with each other and making (or not making) their own individual contributions to the shot attempt by their team of 6 players.

    I fully acknowledge that there is brilliant work being done by some very intelligent people in this field. Though for all the geniuses out there doing groundbreaking work. there is also imo some that just abuse them as a means to show everyone they are smarter than all the non-believers without even really understanding them themselves.

    This doesn’t sound like sarcasm to me. Sounds like a simple repetition.

    Short version: goals offer tiny number of events. Corsi offer myriad events. Sample size is everything.

    Subtext: corsi jibes with success, the correlation is incredibly high.

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    take away: +/- is an incredibly flawed metic doing more damage than good. Corsi is an incredibly useful metric that greatly enhances our knowledge of the game.

  75. Bag of Pucks says:

    Derek: I agree that Jordan Eberle is not a well rounded, 2 way player at this point.

    I take issue with the fact that just because he’s not on the Canadian olympic team, or wouldn’t win a match up vs a former Conn Smyth winner, or a 3 time former Selke winner that this proves your point.

    That’s quite a journey you take to reach your conclusion.

    Derek: I agree that Jordan Eberle is not a well rounded, 2 way player at this point.

    I take issue with the fact that just because he’s not on the Canadian olympic team, or wouldn’t win a match up vs a former Conn Smyth winner, or a 3 time former Selke winner that this proves your point.

    That’s quite a journey you take to reach your conclusion.

    The goal is to win the Cup. So yeah, you may find your 1 line RW will end up facing a Selke or Conn Smythe candidate along the way. If they do, they better be able to get a saw off at minimum.

    Is Eberle this player? Time will tell.

  76. steveb12344 says:

    maudite:
    As far as Dubnyk’s performance goes:

    I think it’s pretty hard not to consider stress and confidence not having a pretty large factor in his downfall judging by results.Contract year, coming into year you know you have to shine because as good as you played last year they were looking to replace you, stumble out of gate and get blamed for everything (even though a few points on that save percentage suffered due to coaching/poor team defense and being the goalie who had the biggest adjustment to make due to league rule changes….because you are a little over an inch shorter than the guy they made exceptions for), get dealt with the idea that this is likely your last shot at a decent contract next year…fail.

    What does any of that have to do with his value as an asset?

    I like the guy. I genuinely feel bad for him.

    The truth is he had his chance and he shit the bed.

    This is pro sports. If he can’t play under the stress and pressure of coming into a contract year, new baby, new equipment etc. Than how do you expect him to handle the pressure and stress of a playoff drive, or a playoff series, an overtime game 7 etc.

  77. Hammers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: You are probably confused because I was responding to someone else.

    Start from reality first.

    He tried for a variety of Gs. In the ACTUAL circumstances in which the decision was made Labarbera was and is an exceptional signing.

    If he chose Labarbera over Bernier… well, that would be a mistake.

    He chose Labarbara over Brz and that was a mistake . Brz was available he signed Barbs , realized he made a mistake and corrected the mistake . Right now Brz is the #1 and Scrivens #2 experience tells us that . Can Scrivens be a #1 ??? Maybe but I’m not sure are you .

  78. The Great One says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This doesn’t sound like sarcasm to me. Sounds like a simple repetition.

    Short version: goals offer tiny number of events. Corsi offer myriad events. Sample size is everything.

    Subtext: corsi jibes with success, the correlation is incredibly high.

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    take away: +/- is an incredibly flawed metic doing more damage than good. Corsi is an incredibly useful metric that greatly enhances our knowledge of the game.

    Take away:

    Corsi is a somewhat useful metric that enhances nothing if the observer ignores a host of other factors that contribute to success or failure.

    Among the top 15 possession teams this season are:

    Los Angeles (#1 but fighting for the last playoff spot in the WC)

    New Jersey (#5 but currently 24th in league standings)

    Dallas (#9 but currently 20th in league standings)

    Detroit (#10 but currently 17th in league standings)

    Florida ((#11 but currently 28th in league standings)

    And, of course you have the Leafs, Colorado, Columbus and Montreal all in the bottom half of the league in possession but all currently in a playoff sport.

    Why?

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    an untrue statement followed by a moronic one: “Corsi is a somewhat useful metric that enhances nothing if the observer ignores a host of other factors that contribute to success or failure.”

    a true statement: “+/- is an incredibly flawed metic doing more damage than good. Corsi is an incredibly useful metric that greatly enhances our knowledge of the game.”

  80. steveb12344 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This doesn’t sound like sarcasm to me. Sounds like a simple repetition.

    Short version: goals offer tiny number of events. Corsi offer myriad events. Sample size is everything.

    Subtext: corsi jibes with success, the correlation is incredibly high.

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    take away: +/- is an incredibly flawed metic doing more damage than good. Corsi is an incredibly useful metric that greatly enhances our knowledge of the game.

    So you say tracking +/- is incredibly flawed, while tracking shot attempts is incredibly useful, and jibes with success?

    There are tonnes of examples where teams win the corsi, yet lose the game.. Last night, the SJ game, The whole Maple Leafs season this year and last.

    Yet I can’t think of a single time in history where the team outscored their opponents, yet lost the game.

    The thing is that every game is a small sample size in itself. A season or a career is not a larger sample size. It is just a larger collection of individual small samples. Every game is played with so many moving parts. (different line/teammates, different opponents, different rest/travel schedules etc.etc.

    Comparing game to game, and season to season, (hell, shift to shift you get sometimes different linemates, different opponents etc.) really is comparing apples to oranges to peaches to plums.

  81. hunter1909 says:

    steveb12344: This is pro sports. If he can’t play under the stress and pressure of coming into a contract year, new baby, new equipment etc. Than how do you expect him to handle the pressure and stress of a playoff drive, or a playoff series, an overtime game 7 etc.

    All part of the systematic pansification of Western Ciivilization.

  82. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Repeat after me: corsi does not predict a specific result.

    the reason you are struggling with the concept is you don’t understand how it works.

    No one ever says that the team that wins the corsi battle wins the game. No one. Put that canard back in your garage and move on.

    corsi says who drives possession. who drives possession correlates very highly over time with winning. These are facts. These are not predictions.

    At best corsi says — absent special teams, shooting/save % — x team beats y a given % of the games out of 100 in a strict 100 game replay. Or, built into the logic of probability is the fact that y team wins a certain % of the games.

    Y team winning, ie. the team that loses the corsi battle winning, is not a contradiction of corsi. It fulfils its logic.

  83. verdad says:

    My three key steps that must be taken asap: fire Lowe, trade/stop playing Gagner and fire Eakins.

    Can anyone participating on this forum not concede that Eakins has made things worse?

    His firing is way overdue.

  84. steveb12344 says:

    The Great One: Take away:

    Corsi is a somewhat useful metric that enhances nothing if the observer ignores a host of other factors that contribute to success or failure.

    Among the top 15 possession teams this season are:

    Los Angeles (#1 but fighting for the last playoff spot in the WC)

    New Jersey (#5 but currently 24th in league standings)

    Dallas (#9 but currently 20th in league standings)

    Detroit (#10 but currently 17th in league standings)

    Florida ((#11 but currently 28th in league standings)

    And, of course you have the Leafs, Colorado, Columbus and Montreal all in the bottom half of the league in possession but all currently in a playoff sport.

    Why?

    Thx, this is pretty much the point I was trying to make.

    I’d also like to add that, why don’t you make a list of teams 1-30 in order of corsi. then make one in order of goal differential.

    See which list more resembles the order of the best to worst teams.

    I’m not going to list them here. but I can tell you that the difference between the lists is staggering.

    The Goal diff list reads like a true power-rankings (much better than even league standings imo) while the corsi list looks more random than anything.

  85. The Great One says:

    steveb12344: Thx, this is pretty much the point I was trying to make.

    I’d also like to add that, why don’t you make a list of teams 1-30 in order of corsi. then make one in order of goal differential.

    See which list more resembles the order of the best to worst teams.

    I’m not going to list them here. but I can tell you that the difference between the lists is staggering.

    The Goal diff list reads like a true power-rankings (much better than even league standings imo) while the corsi list looks more random than anything.

    It’s not random but it’s also not that useful either since it assumes many other games states such as coaching strategy, player quality, shot quality, shot blocking emphasis,shooting percentage and save percentage, among other things, are all created equal.

    They aren’t.

    Of course, the most extreme outlier is the Toronto Maple Leafs who are the second WORST possession team in the league but keep winning anyway.

    There are others.

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The Great One: It’s not random but it’s also not that useful either since it assumes many other games states such as coaching strategy, player quality, shot quality, shot blocking emphasis,shooting percentage and save percentage, among other things, are all created equal.

    This is not a true statement.

  87. spoiler says:

    Has anyone considered the possibility that it was Marincin’s play in OKC that preciptated the Smid move? That MacT knew the right asset to move to free up some cap space for Bryz was a LD, and that the only one moveable for decent return was Smid? We can discuss the return separately, but it seems to me, tey knew Marincin was pretty much ready and made the decision to trade Smid based on that readiness (rather than solely on the play of Belov as has been surmised here).

  88. Gary69Roberts69 says:

    I’m going to have to side with Spoiler Alert on this one guys. He makes a relevant point.

  89. thejonrmcleod says:

    spoiler,

    The Spoiler spoiling a narrative?

  90. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler:
    Has anyone considered the possibility that it was Marincin’s play in OKC that preciptated the Smid move?That MacT knew the right asset to move to free up some cap space for Bryz was a LD, and that the only one moveable for decent return was Smid?We can discuss the return separately, but it seems to me, tey knew Marincin was pretty much ready and made the decision to trade Smid based on that readiness (rather than solely on the play of Belov as has been surmised here).

    This is entirely possible… and yet it wouldn’t vacate the relevant questions:

    1. did he get enough in return?

    2. did he optimize the market’s time-based peeks/valleys?

    3. did he optimize the breadth of the market’s potential buyers?

    4. did he over-value a very junior goaltending prospect? under-value an NHL d?

    5. did he and Ricky O mis-judge their cap situation?

  91. gr8one says:

    Since LA seems to be the fashionable trade partner of the day, one wonders if something like Gagner/Gernat would get us Muzzin/Stoll?

    Would that be enough? Too much?

    It wouldn’t really be a home run but Muzzin has a lot of promise, is a LHD and on paper has what we’re looking for in a d man, although still pretty unpolished.

    A bottom six that consisted of Gordon and Stoll as the C’s sounds pretty decent. That leaves Arco as 2LC, which isn’t ideal, but could perhaps be addressed in a separate deal or via the draft(Reinhart/Draisaitl/Bennett/DalColle)?

  92. thejonrmcleod says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    And it’s entirely possible that the answer to all of those questions is yes.

  93. The Great One says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is not a true statement.

    Listen.

    If your point is, that over a very, very large sample size, possession is good idea because it leads to winning hockey games, you’ll get no argument from me.

    That’s just common sense.

    But using it, in a sample size comprised of a season or even part of a season, it doesn’t reveal much of anything at all as the current standings bear testament to.

    So, what does it tell you?

    Does it tell you the best possession team in the league, LAK, might miss the playoffs because they can’t score?

    Does it tell you that the Colorado Avalanche have no business, based on possession metrics, being a lock to make the playoffs despite being consistently outshot and having mediocre specials teams?

    Does it tell you the Toronto Maple Leafs are the most successful shootout team in the league?

    No, it doesn’t.

    And yet all those things contribute significantly to success or failure in the standings which, after all, is the point of the game.

    Sure, it’s one interesting thing to look at but limited in predicting much of anything.

  94. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is entirely possible… and yet it wouldn’t vacate the relevant questions:
    1. did he get enough in return?
    2. did he optimize the market’s time-based peeks/valleys?
    3. did he optimize the breadth of the market’s potential buyers?
    4. did he over-value a very junior goaltending prospect? under-value an NHL d?
    5. did he and Ricky O mis-judge their cap situation?

    Those questions, while relevant to the trade, are a separate discussion as to why Smid, and the promotion of Marincin.

  95. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Those questions, while relevant to the trade, are separate discussion as to why Smid, and the promotion of Marincin.

    Agree completely and I think you might be right. Or, these things may not be mutually exclusive.

    it is possible MacT saw the emergence of Marincin and thought Belov had passed Smid and thought the coach/player mix wasn’t right…

    at any rate, it’s worth nothing the timeline

    Smid traded Nov. 8th

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=690677

    Marincin’s first game Dec. 5th:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8475716&season=20132014&view=log

    doesn’t invalidate your theory at all… but probably points to a jumble of factors.

  96. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The Great One,

    If anyone credible thought about corsi the way you presume they do and used corsi they way you tell us they do, you may have had a point.

    Instead, all we have is the rambling of a malcontent.

  97. denny33 says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    Well, we know the answer to #3 was No..

  98. book¡je says:

    If Dave flips a coin five times and it turns up heads all five times that is an outlier that can be presumed to be random chance given that over thousands of ‘flips’ of coins we know that the result is pretty much 50-50.

    If Dave flips a coin 200 times and gets heads 70% of the time, there is a very high likelyhood that there is something unique about the way in which Dave flips a coin. It is nearly impossible that this variance would occur by chance.

  99. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Agree completely and I think you might be right. Or, these things may not be mutually exclusive.it is possible MacT saw the emergence of Marincin and thought Belov had passed Smid and thought the coach/player mix wasn’t right…at any rate, it’s worth nothing the timelineSmid traded Nov. 8thhttp://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=690677Marincin’s first game Dec. 5th:http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8475716&season=20132014&view=logdoesn’t invalidate your theory at all… but probably points to a jumble of factors.

    Agreed that there is rarely one simple factor. But I am curious about that move if only because we have a lot of young defensemen that are going to need roster spots in the near future.

  100. russ99 says:

    For those of you in support of dumping our skill players for size/checking players, ask yourself what does that do for us 2-3 years down the road, and potentially under a different coach who uses more mainstream NHL strategy rather than beating the drum about defense and fitness all day?

    We have to stop looking at potential deals with blinders on. Who cares about this year, it’s all about getting better next year and even better the year after that.

    Gagner for Brown or King may look good in this all-consuming need to get bigger, but doesn’t when you think about the big picture. Brown’s cap hit is crippling for a guy who’s numbers are down and will be 30 shortly after next season starts, and third line players like King are available in FA every summer.

    Obviously Gagner’s trade value is restricted by his overall play (some of which is due to his broken jaw) and the NTC that takes effect next season.

  101. Derek says:

    The Great One: Listen.

    If your point is, that over a very, very large sample size, possession is good idea because it leads to winning hockey games, you’ll get no argument from me.

    That’s just common sense.

    But using it, in a sample size comprised of a season or even part of a season, it doesn’t reveal much of anything at all as the current standings bear testament to.

    So, what does it tell you?

    Does it tell you the best possession team in the league, LAK, might miss the playoffs because they can’t score?

    Does it tell you that the Colorado Avalanche have no business, based on possession metrics, being a lock to make the playoffs despite being consistently outshot and having mediocre specials teams?

    Does it tell you the Toronto Maple Leafs are the most successful shootout team in the league?

    No, it doesn’t.

    And yet all those things contribute significantly to success or failure in the standings which, after all, is the point of the game.

    Sure, it’s one interesting thing to look at but limited in predicting much of anything.

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    “You can see the magic number of success is +.500. If you manage to crack this number you have a greater than 75% chance to qualify for the playoffs. If you break the +.550 mark you have a 25% probability of winning the Cup.”

    “There are outliers, there always will be in sports.”

    Lets have a look at Extraskater: http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice?type=total

    Of the top 16 teams in Fenwick 5v5 Close 12 of 16 hold a playoff spot currently. The outliers being:

    Toronto: 5th highest team shooting percentage and amazing goaltending so far, 3rd in PDO
    Colorado: 4th highest team shooting percentange and strong goaltending like TML, 5th in PDO
    Minnesota: Started the season with fantastic possession numbers and have lately been dropping like a rock. 12th in PDO
    Mtl: Started the season strong, with a hard dropoff much like Minnesota 10th in PDO

    The Great One:

    Sure, it’s one interesting thing to look at but limited in predicting much of anything.

    I disagree.

  102. spoiler says:

    And of course the flip side of my narrative is that MacT made a thin NHL level defense even thinner and was forced to try Marincin when that became apparent and now MacT is being bailed out for creating the roster spot by Marincin’s fine, but completely unexpected play.

  103. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Agreed that there is rarely one simple factor.But I am curious about that move if only because we have a lot of young defensemen that are going to need roster spots in the near future.

    Expect to start seeing some of them soon.

    I think we’ll see a fair amount of Fedun and Klefbom down the stretch. speaking of which, link for tonight’s game:

    http://gofirstrow.eu/watch/237541/1/watch-ahl-:-texas-stars-vs-oklahoma-city-.html

  104. Ducey says:

    gr8one:
    Since LA seems to be the fashionable trade partner of the day, one wonders if something like Gagner/Gernat would get us Muzzin/Stoll?

    Would that be enough? Too much?

    It wouldn’t really be a home run but Muzzin has a lot of promise, is a LHD and on paper has what we’re looking for in a d man, although still pretty unpolished.

    A bottom six that consisted of Gordon and Stoll as the C’s sounds pretty decent. That leaves Arco as 2LC, which isn’t ideal, but could perhaps be addressed in a separate deal or via the draft(Reinhart/Draisaitl/Bennett/DalColle)?

    Not sure why Lombardi would be getting rid of Stoll. Isn’t he the shutdown center they would need in the playoffs?

    He has one more year on his contract after this year and I think he enjoys the LA nightlife. I think EDM would be hard pressed to keep him after his contract runs out.

    I guess he would be the type of player they would need to trade to get under the cap.

    Its why its hard to see a deal from LA for Gagner happening.

    Muzzin seems interesting.

  105. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    denny33:
    thejonrmcleod,

    Well, we know the answer to #3 was No..

    At the very least we have strong anecdotal evidence depending on how one weighs reporting.

  106. Pouzar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Expect to start seeing some of them soon.

    I think we’ll see a fair amount of Fedun and Klefbom down the stretch. speaking of which, link for tonight’s game:

    http://gofirstrow.eu/watch/237541/1/watch-ahl-:-texas-stars-vs-oklahoma-city-.html

    Thx RA.

    Yes Please on Fedun/Klefbom

  107. spoiler says:

    russ99: For those of you in support of dumping our skill players for size/checking players, ask yourself what does that do for us 2-3 years down the road, and potentially under a different coach who uses more mainstream NHL strategy rather than beating the drum about defense and fitness all day?

    Relevant bit italicized above.

    Ryan Jones responds:

    “As a player you see the things that are said and written and it’s a Pass The Blame Game,” he said. “The coaches and management don’t play the game. We play the same system as basically every other team in the NHL, it’s the players that lose. Yet they (coaches and managers) take the blame. It’s about time the guys in this lockerroom took a little bit of accountability on themselves and stopped letting other people take the blame.”

    Relevant bit bolded above.

  108. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Expect to start seeing some of them soon.
    I think we’ll see a fair amount of Fedun and Klefbom down the stretch. speaking of which, link for tonight’s game:

    Well we already know for sure on Klefbom as it has been mentioned by the Oilers a few times. I think it would be really weird now if they didn’t give him an audition; ie a definite down arrow.

  109. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Surly:
    Regarding Marincin, some good archive stuff from Oil Change…head to the 10:50 mark of:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=44&id=193740&lang=en

    They debate between Pitlick and Marincin at 31….then end with the thought of getting them both.Some interesting comments by various scouts.

    For tragic comedy…go to the 5:00 mark to hear Katz make a joke about how they are excited to make the first overall pick, but they don’t want to do it every year (crowd erupts in laughter).

    Going through that episode

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=194060&catid=44

    it is fascinating how much interest they had in RyJo (see around the 9min mark) and that they wanted to trade up to take him as well as Hall.

    I really wonder if they pushed to get him out of CLB last Summer when RyJo was in something of a funk with the team’s thinking.

  110. Ducey says:

    book¡je:
    If Dave flips a coin five times and it turns up heads all five times that is an outlier that can be presumed to be random chance given that over thousands of ‘flips’ of coins we know that the result is pretty much 50-50.

    If Dave flips a coin 200 times and gets heads 70% of the time, there is a very high likelyhood that there is something unique about the way in which Dave flips a coin.It is nearly impossible that this variance would occur by chance.

    Dave needs to shoot more. He is not going to score standing around flipping coins.

  111. Bag of Pucks says:

    At this point in time, people arguing for the merits of keeping Sam Gagner are the equivalent of people in the 50′s arguing for the medicinal benefits of cigarettes.

    Or to put it more bluntly, Sam Gagner is cancer. Anything you can do to cut it out (short of cutting off your own head), makes the body better.

  112. gcw_rocks says:

    I think your list is incomplete on both sides:

    On the positives
    - unloaded Horcoff’s contract
    - unloaded Mike Brown

    Both were smart moves.

    On the negatives you missed:
    - failed to address the painfully obvious hole at centre
    - failed to deal one of his expanded core for first pairing defensive help (I get it, not easy to do, but necessary and if he did it last summer, other than Hemsky, all his assets were at peak value) and banked on Ference, Petry, Schultz Jr. and Smid to carry the load
    - Gambled that a lot of scrubs (Grebs, Schultz Sr.), and unproven talent (Belov, Larsen) could play NHL defence and step up if needed
    - Wasted contract spots on Acton, Hamilton, Gazdic, and SMac while failing to take advantage of market opportunities for players like Raymond, Boyes, Hainsey, and Grabovski. Boyes or Grabovski would have been reasonable replacements had one of Yakupov, Gagner, or Eberle been traded for a defender.
    - The nonsense about Horcoff and Hemsky in the press was just foolish
    - Retained the assistant coaches, tying his rookie head coach with a few boat anchors

  113. stephen sheps says:

    Logan91,

    I know this is an older question you asked, but if it were me, it would be Philly in a heartbeat. Bring back Simmonds + for Eberle and I am a fairly happy guy. Philly doesn’t make that trade, but it would be fantastic if they would.

  114. stephen sheps says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The goal is to win the Cup. So yeah, you may find your 1 line RW will end up facing a Selke or Conn Smythe candidate along the way. If they do, they better be able to get a saw off at minimum.

    Is Eberle this player? Time will tell.

    We’re now 4 years into Eberle’s pro career and I’m not seeing this as a possibility. I was actually shocked when I read the article Staples put up pumping Eberle’s tires the other day. He’s soft on the puck and a turnover machine, plus he doesn’t go to the tough areas of the ice. Outside of Perron and Yak, none of the top 6 players really do. I don’t want to harp on Eberle as he’s not the only player on the team who needs to show some improvement or growth, but given his contract length and cap hit, is he really the long term solution?

    I think you’re absolutely right when you suggest that the top line players should be able to saw off against the Datsuyks of the world. Can Eberle? Can the entire top line? I too am not so sure…. But after 3.5 years of this, how much more time do we wait before we make the one kind of change that hasn’t been tried as of yet?

  115. spoiler says:

    stephen sheps: We’re now 4 years into Eberle’s pro career and I’m not seeing this as a possibility. I was actually shocked when I read the article Staples put up pumping Eberle’s tires the other day. He’s soft on the puck and a turnover machine, plus he doesn’t go to the tough areas of the ice. Outside of Perron and Yak, none of the top 6 players really do. I don’t want to harp on Eberle as he’s not the only player on the team who needs to show some improvement or growth, but given his contract length and cap hit, is he really the long term solution?

    I think you’re absolutely right when you suggest that the top line players should be able to saw off against the Datsuyks of the world. Can Eberle? Can the entire top line? I too am not so sure…. But after 3.5 years of this, how much more time do we wait before we make the one kind of change that hasn’t been tried as of yet?

    Seems like Bizarro world in here today… I don’t think Eberle has an NHL goal from farther than 15 feet out. Certainly very very few. How on Gord’s green earth did he then score all those goals from inside 15 feet without going to the tough areas of the ice?

  116. stephen sheps says:

    spoiler,

    Are we watching the same player? Spoiler, I think you’ve got one of the best and most consistent positions on this blog and really like reading your comments, but dude, come on?! Watching Eberle play, sure he gets in close, and I agree about his goal scoring position, but he has success when he gets space. He’s not a player who drives to the net and shakes players off to do it, and he would rather dangle into the middle every time. Sometimes it works, and when it does, he’s deadly. However when it doesn’t work, it’s another turnover in the offensive zone. And it’s getting frustrating to watch. When he is on his game, he’s a wonderful player, but he is soft. My housemate and I, despite being handicapped by living in Ontario, have missed maybe 5 games total this season and at least once a game, we end up cursing him specifically, and it sucks. I know the eye and the stats rarely line up, but by eye, Eberle is soft on the puck and is a giveaway machine, perhaps even more than Hemmer or Hall. He’s a finesse player with a quick release, and with space, he’s incredible, but that doesn’t mean he goes to the tough areas. He doesn’t crash the crease and he tries the fancy move before maybe making the smart play. That’s all I’m saying. And it isn’t just him, but he’s the player (aside from Gagner, who I admittedly really like and am really cheering for to turn his game around) who I notice the most out of the highly skilled forwards making the same mistakes over and over. I don’t know if the stats (aside from boxcars) can back me or not, and I’m not sure I care quite frankly, but I’m seeing him bad right now.

  117. Doomoil says:

    Why would anyone care about Ott’s opinion?

  118. spoiler says:

    stephen sheps: Are we watching the same player? Spoiler, I think you’ve got one of the best and most consistent positions on this blog and really like reading your comments, but dude, come on?! Watching Eberle play, sure he gets in close, and I agree about his goal scoring position, but he has success when he gets space. He’s not a player who drives to the net and shakes players off to do it, and he would rather dangle into the middle every time. Sometimes it works, and when it does, he’s deadly. However when it doesn’t work, it’s another turnover in the offensive zone. And it’s getting frustrating to watch. When he is on his game, he’s a wonderful player, but he is soft. My housemate and I, despite being handicapped by living in Ontario, have missed maybe 5 games total this season and at least once a game, we end up cursing him specifically, and it sucks. I know the eye and the stats rarely line up, but by eye, Eberle is soft on the puck and is a giveaway machine, perhaps even more than Hemmer or Hall. He’s a finesse player with a quick release, and with space, he’s incredible, but that doesn’t mean he goes to the tough areas. He doesn’t crash the crease and he tries the fancy move before maybe making the smart play. That’s all I’m saying. And it isn’t just him, but he’s the player (aside from Gagner, who I admittedly really like and am really cheering for to turn his game around) who I notice the most out of the highly skilled forwards making the same mistakes over and over. I don’t know if the stats (aside from boxcars) can back me or not, and I’m not sure I care quite frankly, but I’m seeing him bad right now.

    Can I sell you a paragraph break… or two? Lol.

    I agree with you that we will rarely, if ever, see Eberle take up a position on the edge of the crease and hold there. It, like many many NHL players, is not his forte and as a tactic would have limited success. And thus wouldn’t be smart play… so it makes no sense for him to do so.

    However we do see him drive to the crease with the puck, often to make plays while being hit. Every game we see him cycle the puck in the corners, again making plays while being contacted.

    Do we all wish he had more strength and thus more likelihood of success in board battles? Sure. But I don’t doubt his courage or his determination when it comes to scoring.

    The crease and the corners are known as the “tough areas of the ice”, and we do see Eberle in these spots, making plays, while being checked.

    Time and space are what every player on the ice craves, so it is impossible to criticize him specifically on this level. Giveaways are as much an indication of possession as anything else. No one has done an analysis yet on what the threshold number is for being a giveaway machine, and until they do, our own analysis is limited.

    What I think you might be getting at, and I think this is a valid point, is that we do not see Eberle put the same courage and dedication he puts into the tough areas in the Ozone as he puts into the tough areas of the DZone… That he doesn’t create enough physical battles for the puck when defending. I have no data on it, but I suspect this is true by eye.

  119. spoiler says:

    In addition, we all have seen Eberle stickhandle in a phone booth*… which means he goes to high traffic areas and needs very little in the way of time or space. And we can’t expect Eberle to play in those situations like a Byfuglien or Burns (and vice versa)…

    *one of them old timey things that you can see in olden days movies; ie movies that pre-date cellphones.

  120. TheOtherJohn says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Repeat after me: corsi does not predict a specific result.

    the reason you are struggling with the concept is you don’t understand how it works.

    No one ever says that the team that wins the corsi battle wins the game. No one. Put that canard back in your garage and move on.

    corsi says who drives possession. who drives possession correlates very highly over time with winning. These are facts. These are not predictions.

    At best corsi says — absent special teams, shooting/save % — x team beats y a given % of the games out of 100 in a strict 100 game replay. Or, built into the logic of probability is the fact that y team wins a certain % of the games.

    Y team winning, ie. the team that loses the corsi battle winning, is not a contradiction of corsi. It fulfils its logic.

    Excellent job Rom

  121. TheOtherJohn says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This is entirely possible… and yet it wouldn’t vacate the relevant questions:

    1. did he get enough in return?

    2. did he optimize the market’s time-based peeks/valleys?

    3. did he optimize the breadth of the market’s potential buyers?

    4. did he over-value a very junior goaltending prospect? under-value an NHL d?

    5. did he and Ricky O mis-judge their cap situation?

    Rom

    On fire………. course WG on a flight somehere (Tempe???) so there is a gap in comments

  122. hankster says:

    Ducey: 1.My point was that MacT does not and should not listen to the fanbase.You have responded by suggesting he he has made a mistake listening to the “groupthink” here.Try to keep up.

    2.The team should have prospects regardless of where they are in the standings.LT loves prospects.So do I.If you don’t, there are other places to go.

    3.I am not saying the teams doesn’t need toughness.I am saying the GM shouldn’t be adding toughness because the fanbase tells him too.For many, its that simple: get tougher, win more. Its not that simple.

    3. MacT should not be making decisions based on anything Steve Ott has to say, remarks Eller and Trotz later recanted, or anything the MSM uses to fill airtime.There are lots of similar comments from many people complimentary of the team and its players.Why don’t you rely on those?

    4. You seem like the type of guy that would love to dump half the team’s picks and young players in exchange for vets and established players.Once the team makes the playoffs for a few years, you will be the first one bitching about how they don’t have the skilled players necessary to be challenging for the Cup.Or how Eberle is putting up 60 points a year while the vets traded for him are in decline.

    1. fanbase are divided in several camps in terms of how to make this team better. So you and I are in different camps. Nothing wrong with that.

    2. People will feel better in the future when the team is very competitive and u won’t get as excited about Moroz or Chase bowel movements. All fans enjoy prospects discussion but people around here are unfortunately conditioned to discussing entry draft several months ahead of everyone else around the league.

    3. I’m not chicken little skyfalling. But most of the adults here can see lipstick on a pig. Just check the standings for the last decade.

    4. “could, would, if’s” nope, not me. We make a decision based on info available at that point in time.

    This keeping the so called core together and be patient with team….I also read that in Katz letter to the fans recently.

    Smid and Ference are on the record saying the CORE players need to play a better TEAM game. Anyone who’s watched a couple of games knows which players they’re referring to. But some are in denial ’cause they’re sentimental about their favorite player.

    I don’t think you’re really saying vet leadership is not needed to build a playoff team. But infering that just let these kids roast in the oven and it’ll turn out awesome in a couple of years. Thanks for the letter again, Mr Katz.

  123. G Money says:

    book¡je:
    If Dave flips a coin five times and it turns up heads all five times that is an outlier that can be presumed to be random chance given that over thousands of ‘flips’ of coins we know that the result is pretty much 50-50.

    If Dave flips a coin 200 times and gets heads 70% of the time, there is a very high likelyhood that there is something unique about the way in which Dave flips a coin.It is nearly impossible that this variance would occur by chance.

    Ducey: Dave needs to shoot more.He is not going to score standing around flipping coins.

    Or does it mean that Eakins is coaching Dave on flipping up tails on his Coin Flipping Special Teams?

  124. stephen sheps says:

    spoiler,

    1) About those paragraph breaks; I’m an academic. We’re a wordy bunch in the social sciences and tend to only break paragraphs when moving on to a new point. Seeing as I was rambling about the same point, it didn’t seem worthy of a break.

    2) Yup, I completely agree with your assessment. His skill-set isn’t that of the power forward. I wish he had that skill-set, but that isn’t him.

    3) Agree to disagree on the possession thing. I find that since he is so prone to nasty giveaways, I am not so sure that an argument can be made that he is a possession driving player, given how often that line is one and done this year. I think the data might agree with me too, given the lower amount of shots and chances the line collectively seems to be generating, especially 5v4.

    4) If someone who can actually make stats go could develop a possession metric that deals with ratio of giveaways to takeaways relative to scoring chances for and against, I would be all for it. I am not that guy, however.

    5) On the subject of the phone booth (which I am more than old enough to remember!), that is the very term often used in my house when 4 oilers all end up bunched in the same spot on the ice and end up losing possession (or losing the battle along the wall). Too many times a game do we just shout “Phonebooth!!” angrily at the television as if magically expecting to be both heard and understood.

  125. spoiler says:

    stephen sheps: 1) About those paragraph breaks; I’m an academic. We’re a wordy bunch in the social sciences and tend to only break paragraphs when moving on to a new point. Seeing as I was rambling about the same point, it didn’t seem worthy of a break.

    I would be careful of painting all academics with the same brush. Some academics are among the most succinct people I know. There are a few obvious opportunities for new paragraphs in your rant. Keep in mind your audience when writing and that you want your thoughts to be read. People tend to turn away from or skip over large blocks of writing. That’s my advice anyhoo…

    stephen sheps: 3) Agree to disagree on the possession thing. I find that since he is so prone to nasty giveaways, I am not so sure that an argument can be made that he is a possession driving player, given how often that line is one and done this year. I think the data might agree with me too, given the lower amount of shots and chances the line collectively seems to be generating, especially 5v4.

    I don’t think there are any kids outside of maybe the Golden Nugget who are consistently making smart decisions with the puck. This is part of what Eakins is trying to teach. That’s not an Eberle problem but a youth problem. Their Corsi reflects it too.

    stephen sheps: 4) If someone who can actually make stats go could develop a possession metric that deals with ratio of giveaways to takeaways relative to scoring chances for and against, I would be all for it. I am not that guy, however.

    Ratio of giveaways to takeaways wouldn’t tell us about being a giveaway machine. Nor would adding scoring chance data help. We would need to look at large samples of giveaways per TOI (or perhaps per puck touch) and then figure out the mean and the standard deviation and establish a threshold between what we consider to be a reasonable rate of occurrence and what we would consider a poor rate of occurrence. Giveaways are a part of the game. For example, Gretzky’s horrific play on the first shift of Game 3 of the 1987 Canada Cup, that gave the Soviets the early lead.

    And keep in mind that a big enough Corsi sample should tell us something about a player or team’s ability to maintain possession without introducing difficult to calculate giveaway thresholds.

    stephen sheps: 5) On the subject of the phone booth (which I am more than old enough to remember!), that is the very term often used in my house when 4 oilers all end up bunched in the same spot on the ice and end up losing possession (or losing the battle along the wall). Too many times a game do we just shout “Phonebooth!!” angrily at the television as if magically expecting to be both heard and understood.

    Supporting the puck in the modern age requires some proximity. Overcoming defenses often means flooding the zone or out-manning on battles/scrambles. That said, this will get overdone from time to time. And puck bounces can often make someone look very foolish (which is why we prefer to look at large samples rather than individual plays).

    I actually get mad at the opposite… when the offense is so spread that risky cross ice passes must be attempted. The passer ends up looking like an idiot and gets credited with a giveaway when really he had no good options or support (see how difficult giveaways are to measure, especially from a limited ice TV perspective?)

  126. stephen sheps says:

    We run in opposite circles then, but I agree about the “know your audience” bit. I teach that to my students all the time, then use my own position as a lazy defence when I’m writing freely, rather than for a publication :) By which I mean well played good sir (or madam, I will not presume gender today)…well played.

    It’s not an Eberle problem, it is a youth problem, but Eberle, by eye, has had this problem consistently this season. I fear the bad habits have become too deep-set to break and that the coaches are doomed.

    I never presumed to know the best measure. I like your plan. Know anyone who is good at doing this sort of work?

    I’m not so sure about that; corsi is a great indicator of patterns of performance but it doesn’t tell the whole story. There are subtle nuances to individual players that corsi cannot measure nor was it intended to.

    I get mad at both. The suicide passes across the ice are just as frustrating as watching 4 players all go for the puck and lose.

    Appreciate the dialogue here! Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca