EXPECT THE EXIT

Craig MacTavish laid the trade deadline foundation for fans yesterday. Expect the exit. Ales Hemsky, Nick Schultz, maybe Ryan Smyth or Sam Gagner. It’s fairly easy to fill in the blanks from there. Take all of the smart teams (LAK, CHI, PIT, BOS, STL, ANA, SJS, OTT, NJD. maybe DET) and filter them through MacTavish, we should be able tio find our Hemsky destination (or close).

How many of those teams could use Hemsky? LAK, PIT, STL, SJS and maybe Detroit. How many of them are waiting for MacTavish to make a mistake? All of them. How many will improve their offer an hour before the deadline? All of them. Where will Hemsky end up? I’ll guess Los Angeles for a second and a fourth (or a conditional 1st). Is that enough? That’s not really the question we should be asking. The question: is it wise to deal Hemsky now? Answer: no. Get good players, keep good players. Let us never entertain the unicorn that is three scoring lines again. Ever.

It will be very interesting to see how much Calgary gets for Cammalleri compared to the Oil return for Hemsky.

FIRST ROUND PICK

  • MacT: “I’m open minded. You have to be. It’s determining what the value is of that pick”

If the season ended today, the Oilers would pick first, second or third (lottery winner). One suspects their list is Ekblad, Bennett and Reinhart, and we can probably also assume the club might be eager to draft Bennett over Reinhart to give them a different look. I don’t think they trade this pick.

JUSTIN SCHULTZ, TOP PAIRING

“With Justin, it’ll be after the deadline. I’ve had some preliminary conversations with his representation.  I think he’s a terrific talent, he’s taken significant steps this year. Working towards establishing himself as a guy with very very high upside.”

This quote tells us that MacT believes completely in Schultz as part of the foundation of the team. I’m not sure that we should share that belief, Schultz has lots of holes but plenty of talent, too. Once he hits 200 games we should know, but he’s going to get paid long before it. The best case scenario involves finding a brilliant Vlasic pickles defender to run side by side. Suspect that’s part of the summer.

LE BARONS

“Hopefully we can get a number of things done at the deadline. We want to free up roster spots to give some of our young guys in the AHL a chance to play.”

This means the players we’ve discussed—Lander, Horak, Pitlick, Fedun, Klefbom—may all appear if their roadblocks (Hemsky, Smyth, Jones, N Schultz, Potter) are moved down the line. If you’re a performing Baron, this is a pretty exciting week.

THE FOCUS

“We want to accumulate as many assets as possible going through this deadline”

The rebuild continues. The deadline is about getting picks from 25-95 in exchange for Hemsky, Nick Schultz and Ryan Smyth. No doubts. Sail on, Pardubice prince, cashed for #49 overall.

SCRIVENS, STARTER

“You try and give yourself swings at the plate. When you analyze where he is, and what his skill level is, and his age is, it’s a reasonable assumption he has room to grow. There’s not a lot of downside to bringing a guy like Ben in and seeing what he can do for us.  Nothing in the sample size to stop us from giving him that opportunity” (being a 60 game starter).

There you go! Confirmation from MacT that Scrivens joins Perron, Gordon and Ference as long term additions (or at least that’s the plan) for this team. If Tambellini had been adding one useful player a year the Oilers wouldn’t need to trade Hemsky at the deadline. I cannot be convinced otherwise.

POST DEADLINE ROSTER

  • Goal: Ben Scrivens, Ilya Bryzgalov
  • Defense: Andrew Ference, Justin Schultz, Martin Marincin, Jeff Petry, Anton Belov, Mark Fraser, Taylor Fedun
  • Center: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner, Boyd Gordon, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Taylor Hall, David Perron, Roman Horak, Jesse Joensuu, Luke Gazdic
  • Right Wing: Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle, Matt Hendricks, Tyler Pitlick, Ryan Jones

I’m straining to see a possession team here, ladies and men. I’ve ordered the glasses, but they aren’t here yet.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

deneuve1At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Hockey is REALLY back now, with good teams playing tonight! Scheduled to appear:

  • Michael Parkatti, Boys on the Bus. Trade deadline, true value of Hemsky, what to expect final 22 games.
  • Darrin Bauming, TSN 1290 Winnipeg. Jets deadline, Maurice extension, Pavelec as #1, Blue Bombers.
  • Sean Beissel, head coach Sherwood Park midget AAA and campus director Donnan Hockey. Finishing the season and why change can be a good thing.
  • Rob Soria, Oil Drop and Frozen in Oil. Rob has some strong opinions on where the Oilers are heading.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Safety at the Olympics, helmet progress and baseball!
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings pbp. Medicine Hat played filthy in their barn last night, and tonight the two teams play at Rexall.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ and we’ll have any breaking Oilers news (even have our own music bed!) Stay tuned.

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75 Responses to "EXPECT THE EXIT"

  1. russ99 says:

    I still think Gagner will be moved, even if it opens up a gaping hole. And he’d be moved for players, not picks.

    I’m calling it here – if Gagner isn’t dealt before the deadline, he’ll be an Oiler on July 1st when his NTC kicks in…

  2. Jordan says:

    Hmm… a reasonable reading of the tea leaves.

    This really does look more like a moneyball kind of approach to the game. Several years ago we were begging for the team to unload all of the UFAs for picks and prospects. I recognize the expectations for performance are different this year, but I can’t help but be pleased that they are looking to maximize value for their assets.

    While emotionally I will feel like crap when Hemsky moves, and will feel worse if Smyth goes again too, at least I’ll know we get something for him. I want to beleive he’d come back, but if you were Ales, would you re-sign here after the past 2-year gong-show?

    I can’t help but wonder if MacT isn’t trying to build up draft picks this year to trade on the draft floor for 2015 picks. This draft’s depth has been questioned multiple times, so if the value of a 2nd or 3rd is less this year than the last two years, I cant help but imagine them offering extra bullets for better value next year.

    If that happens… well I’ll have a little more respect for the man than I do now.

  3. Beaker says:

    Trading Gagner before the deadline makes little sense. Could happen but return likely better in the offseason. What would we have to give up to get Samuelsson out of Pheonix?

  4. wheatnoil says:

    I’m straining to see a possession team here, ladies and men. I’ve ordered the glasses, but they aren’t here yet.

    It is a possession team. It’s just that they want to possess Ekblad or Bennett.

  5. thejonrmcleod says:

    Trade for draft picks on trade deadline day; trade for players on draft day.

  6. Pouzar says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Trade for draft picks on trade deadline day; trade for players on draft day.

    that about sums it up for me and why I am taking UNDER 3.5 trades by deadline day
    and why I believe Samwise isn’t traded till the summer.

  7. Hammers says:

    Is this a week of get what you can in picks only, or is there an outside chance of a real hockey trade with one of the other 8 bottom feeders . I don’t understand why some of these lower based teams don’t try to bring in a player or even two so they can start now for next season . For me that would be bolder than the same old same old .

  8. LoDog says:

    It is wise to trade Hemsky now. He is about a 2 million a year player now. He won’t take that without seeing what he might get in Free Agency so trade him and see what happens in July.

    Can’t pay him the kind of number thrown around this blog (3.5 seems popular) you need a lot more for that money. David Perron makes 3.5 and has twice the points.

  9. goldenchild says:

    I’ve been thinking about 83 a lot the last few months, For the Oilers, does it make more sense for them to trade him for picks or sign him to lets say 3 years 4.5/per. I think its easily option 2, those picks wont help them for 3 years min and probably never. The price to replace Hemsky with a player of equal level will be very high and I’m not sure where they find that player.

    Thing is does it make sense for Hemsky to stay for another 3 years? I cant think of a reason that makes sense besides he has been here for a long time and likes it here. There is probably like a 95% chance he will sign with a team that is better than the Oiers next year. There is probably a 80-90% chance he will get more money elsewhere in July and a better than 50% chance he will get a role that is more fitting of his skills, so why would he want to stay?

    Selfishly I hope I am wrong and something gets done under the wire because I love watching him play, nobody has made being an Oiler fan easier the last decade than 83. Also it makes the Oilers a much better team with him than without him.

    But for Ales’s sake I hope he gets moved to a team that can win it all. The thought of an excited Ales Hemsky playing in the playoffs with the Sharks or Penguins or some team like that makes me smile. If Ales was Cdn the local beat writers would of written novels about his “clutchness” the game winning goals against the Ducks and Sharks that helped them make the playoffs in 05, the game tying and game winning goals against the Wings in Game 7 should of cemented his rep but ‘body language” says otherwise. I’ll be cheering like hell for whatever team he plays for this playoff season hope he goes all the way. . #FreeHemsky

  10. gcw_rocks says:

    Starting to look more and more like Markov could end up a free agent this summer. He is looking for a three year deal and the Habs are offering one year at $6M.

    The Oilers should consider offering him a major overpay on a 2 year deal, say 2 X $7.5M or even $8M to get him here but with a shorter term to bridge the gap until Nurse and Klefbom are ready to make more minutes. He still plays top pairing minutes at EV, plus top pairing PP and second pairing PK for MTL.

    At his age and injury history, I wouldn’t want to sign him for more than 2 years, but he could be a nice player to bridge the gap until some of this young defenders mature. That’s probably the end of Hemsky being affordable, but for a top pairing defender I would sacrifice Hemsky.

  11. wheatnoil says:

    Hammers:
    Is this a week of get what you can in picks only, or is there an outside chance of a real hockey trade with one of the other 8 bottom feeders . I don’t understand why some of these lower based teams don’t try to bring in a player or even two so they can start now for next season . For me that would be bolder than the same old same old .

    MacT was asked this question and he responded that it would be ideal to bring in a young prospect or a hockey player but it’s hard to get those guys at the deadline, which I think is a valid point. If those players are more expensive at the deadline but cheaper at the draft, it would make sense to do what thejonrmcleod mentioned above and buy low, sell high.

    What remains to be seen is if MacT brings in NHL players at the draft. If the Oilers can get a second rounder or two now and flip one or both of those for an NHL player at the draft, I’d call it a great success.

  12. Bank Shot says:

    I sure hope MacT reclaims enough draft picks to have a lot of ammunition in order to pick up another primarily offensive winger in the offseason!

    That will surely stem the tide of losing.

  13. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    I appreciate this conventional wisdom, but doesn’t the fact that Gagner has a NTC kicking in July 1st really create a scenario that every step towards that date is eroding the trade leverage MacT has on Gagner? Won’t GM’s recognize that MacT – if he wants Gagner moved out before it triggers – will be increasingly anxious to get a deal done and therefore, bids get lowered? Seems to me that earlier is better. Besides, if we are taking on any portion of Gagner’s contract he quickly becomes a value contract for someone picking him up (seems like a tradeable asset for a bonafide player coming back).

  14. Ribs says:

    Trading away NHL players for draft picks at the deadline sounds an awful lot like “Making sure we are high in the draft order”. I like the idea of getting the most value out of these guys, but man, I’m looking forward to the day when the coach isn’t stuck with less than he started with after the deadline.

    My usual plea – Please don’t trade Hemsky.

    Smyth and Hemsky to the Wings would be pretty cool for a good kick at the can, though.

  15. thejonrmcleod says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic,

    There are always exceptions to the rule.

  16. Ducey says:

    I really don’t get the angst about trading Hemsky or Smyth.

    Smyth is almost certain to come back.

    Hemsky may not come back, but so what??

    1. He has been way overpaid relative to performance the last two years;
    2. He is 30 and has always been brittle. He has never shown an ability to avoid the big hit or the wayward slapshot. He has played about 70% of the games in the last 5 yrs (many of those hurting). That number will just go down;
    3.He is going to have to play third line minutes, a role that he is not really suited for. This team does not need a third scoring line. They need some ability to play defense. This involves more than just adding better defenders;
    4. If Hemsky was so sought after he would bring more than a 2nd rounder. He will have a few offers this summer but nothing MacT can’t beat if he wants to;
    5. I think the Oilers can go lots of other ways anyway. Add in Winnick and maybe someone like Setoguchi to the third line and are we going to miss Hemsky?
    6. The Oilers can’t keep fielding the same infield every year and expect it to start hitting homers and getting to grounders they never have before. Its time to change up the batting order and Hemsky (given his age and pending free agency) makes the most sense out of the top 9.

    I like Hemsky and have enjoyed watching him when he is flying around the rink. But those nights are becoming less frequent. Time to move on.

  17. Beaker says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic,

    A NTC doesnt mean a player cant get moved. In reality it means something more along the lines of “the player gets options on where hes moved”

  18. Ducey says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    thejonrmcleod,

    I appreciate this conventional wisdom, but doesn’t the fact that Gagner has a NTC kicking in July 1st really create a scenario that every step towards that date is eroding the trade leverage MacT has on Gagner? Won’t GM’s recognize that MacT – if he wants Gagner moved out before it triggers – will be increasingly anxious to get a deal done and therefore, bids get lowered? Seems to me that earlier is better. Besides, if we are taking on any portion of Gagner’s contract he quickly becomes a value contract for someone picking him up (seems like a tradeable asset for a bonafide player coming back).

    Gagner’s no trade clause will not be an issue. I have asked it before, and will again: Who has ever exercised their no trade to stay in Edmonton?

  19. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Ducey,

    I also appreciate this, but the fact remains an NTC exists and that is a leverage tilt in Gagners favor. Gagner demonstrated he clearly understood using collective bargaining tools for his advantage (he has ever right to do that) on the last go around and it handcuffed MacT on the contract he did. No favors were gratuitously gifted. Its business and if this is hovering out there, it would seem wise to stay ahead of it and not make assumptions that it ‘won’t be an issue’.

  20. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I’m straining to see a possession team here, ladies and men. I’ve ordered the glasses, but they aren’t here yet.

    They’re still under development. They’ll be the next, bigger model in this series.

  21. Ca$h-Money! says:

    “Don’t trade Hemsky” doesn’t exist in a vacuum.

    1. Would Hemsky stay at any price? If I were him I’d look to sign somewhere else, not because I don’t think Edmonton will become a contender, but because I’d want to make sure I get offensive minutes. If he signs here for 2 years he can guarantee that his next contract will be low, because he’ll be playing defense the whole time.

    2. If he will stay, how much will it cost? The phrase “get good players keep good players” is a dangerous truism. “Get good value keep good value” is better.

    Hemsky @5 million to play 3RW is a bad idea.

    Losing Hemsky for nothing is worse than trading Hemsky for a 4th round pick. Not saying he’s worth a 4th rounder, just illustrating the point.

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Trade for draft picks on trade deadline day; trade for players on draft day.

    ^^^ This ^^^

  23. russ99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Except that MacT failed pretty badly at making deals for NHL players during last year’s draft, both with the potential goalie trade in the first round and the somehow collapsed Flyers trade in the second round.

    Why would that be any different this year?

    At least at the deadline there are GMs desperate for a player that could help put them or advance them to a higher playoff spot. As a seller, that could put us at somewhat of an advantage, if we’re playing teams offers against each other.

    Nobody’s giving anything away for free on draft day.

  24. Beaker says:

    russ99:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Except that MacT failed pretty badly at making deals for NHL players during last year’s draft, both with the potential goalie trade in the first round and the somehow collapsed Flyers trade in the second round.

    Why would that be any different this year?

    At least at the deadline there are GMs desperate for a player that could help put them or advance them to a higher playoff spot.

    Not making those trades isnt necessarily an indicator that MacT failed…

  25. rickithebear says:

    You cannot Guarantee PP time team to team that is Ref dependent.
    So you cannot Guarantee PP and Pk to all players.
    We can guarante a certain amount of Even play.
    What wins games good even goals for and Even goals against.

    Hemsky Averaged for Even Goals
    05-06 to 07-08 #159
    08-09 to 10-11 #178
    11-12 to 13-14 #217

    The last two years hendricks averaged #242
    08-09 to 10-11 #218

    So while you complain about hendricks offensively.
    and his 1.85M
    #242 in EVG 3rd comp 31.7% ZS
    Hemmer #227 EVG 2nd Comp 43.2% ZS
    how much do you sign him for?

  26. russ99 says:

    Beaker,

    He didn’t have to telegraph his “boldness” to the press. That didn’t help.

    I hope this year he keeps things closer to the vest.

  27. Beaker says:

    russ99,

    Not sure I see your point. honesty may have been a tactical error but you have no real evidence either way that would have altered the other gms offers (for example: Schneider was never coming here for anything short of a gross gross overpay is my guess) and regardless him trying to fix the tactical error by just making a bold but shitty trade wouldn’t mean he was “successful” at acquiring NHL players if hes giving up too much to get them.

    If you want to make the argument hes a failure at acquiring good NHL players by the trades hes made (Perron and Scrivens would probably have something to say about that) then fine. But using trades he didn’t make to try and make that point is asinine as you don’t know the details of those offers and neither do i.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, I think ‘get good players, keep good players’ loses its credibility as a management philosophy if it becomes a gross oversimplification that ignores market conditions.

    We don’t know what Hemsky would be willing to sign for, or if he’s even interested in his ongoing descent down the depth chart with a perennial loser. At some point, Daddy gotta get paid.

    If MacT can’t get this player on terms reflective of his current value to the team (i.e you don’t pay him like a Top 6 forward now), then asset management best practices have to override loyalty. This is not the time for the team to kindly offer up an overpay for a declining asset.

    In an earlier post, you stated the critical importance of this team finding Griers, Moreaus, Marchants, at this point in the rebuild. For me, that should be the optimal return for Hemmer. Find a dance partner that’s willing to trade a strong two forward with size and functional toughness for a player with more offensive upside.

    Rather than the simplistic “get good players, keep good players,” maybe the philosophy should be “accumulate assets, leverage the market, balance the roster.”

  29. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: ^^^ This ^^^

    I had argued this same strategy a few months ago. Zig when the market zags and you can maximize your return.

    And while, as someone above has mentioned that a similar move last June wasn’t successful, MacTavish didn’t have a lot of draft assets to work with. I suspect he may have a few more this year, although almost certainly not an abundance of 1st and 2nd round picks which seem to be the most common currency used in acquiring useful NHL players.

  30. Oilanderp says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    They’re still under development. They’ll be the next, bigger model in this series.

    Jeez, the Oilers are going to have to change their draft strategy to favour prospects with bigger, or at least more widely spaced, eyes.

  31. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey: Gagner’s no trade clause will not be an issue.I have asked it before, and will again:Who has ever exercised their no trade to stay in Edmonton?

    A NTC gives Gagner leverage on where he goes. You have a very good trade to X, Gagner doesn’t like X so he says no. Pretty obvious. It’s why Luongo is still in Vancouver

  32. Jordan says:

    Oilanderp: Jeez, the Oilers are going to have to change their draft strategy to favour prospects with bigger, or at least more widely spaced, eyes.

    Oh, I guess I understood the message – I thought we were getting those glasses because of how small the team is.

    Either that or the Oilers are REALLY expanding the scope of their scouting and are now looking beyond Russia and into the xeno-imports.

  33. rogue says:

    Bruce,

    Any thoughts on Ollie Maata? With Pittsburgh being down a couple of D-men and a forward, would Hemsky and Belov get Maata and a 2nd or 3rd round pick?

    I thought he had a great Olympics. But I suspect the Pens may have a high opinion of him. It would depend on their desperation. Lol. Maybe I answered my own question.

  34. RexLibris says:

    TheOtherJohn: A NTC gives Gagner leverage on where he goes. You have a very good trade to X, Gagner doesn’t like X so he says no. Pretty obvious. It’s why Luongo is still in Vancouver

    Another example is the confusion that occurred in the Iginla trade last year. Boston had the clearly better offer and the one that Feaster preferred, but Iginla felt he had a better chance of winning in Pittsburgh so he nixed Boston and went with Pittsburgh.

    It meant the Flames got Agostino, Hanowski and a 1st as opposed to the rumoured Bartkowski, Kokhlachev and a 1st.

    I still believe that Gagner goes at the draft and that the NTC does not significantly impact MacTavish’s ability to negotiate. It is no more a window closing on his time to move said player than it is a window closing on a prospective team’s ability to more freely acquire him.

  35. admiralmark says:

    Lowetide please explain how Hemsky has so little value to 30 GM’s in the league clearly evident by a 2nd and a 4th being the return likely at best. And yet you still hold to the belief he is such a wondrous player? Don’t you think 1 single pro scouting Dept. would see this value? Oilers have him playing on the 3rd line most the year and 29 other GM’s are offering practically jack squat to obtain him. Maybe its time to rethink how great a player he is?

    Gagner see above. He will not be traded at the deadline because the offers are going to be so incredibly weak that MAcT would simply be wise to hang onto him. If Hemsky had 1 more year on his contract he would also remain an Oiler past the deadline. Sad truth is 2-3 years ago when these players had some reasonable value the team should of recognized this and traded them for a decent return. Now the rest of the league knows these players too well. Asset management at its worst.

  36. oilersfan says:

    rikkibear

    what do you mean by those numbers? I don’t understand the metrics at all. thanks

  37. art vandelay says:

    I desperately hope the Oilers trade Hemsky, Gagner, Ryan Smith and anyone else on the bucket list. So that Oilerfan can get on with the business of picking a new scapegoat for the team finishing 30th.

  38. Truth says:

    rogue:
    Bruce,

    Any thoughts on Ollie Maata? With Pittsburgh being down a couple of D-men and a forward, would Hemsky and Belov get Maata and a 2nd or 3rd round pick?

    I thought he had a great Olympics. But I suspect the Pens may have a high opinion of him. It would depend on their desperation. Lol. Maybe I answered my own question.

    I know you directed this at Bruce, but I think the Pens would be crazy to do that. Does the Oilers first round pick this year even get you Maata? I think it would be close but they wouldn’t do it. Maata is going to be a stud.

  39. RexLibris says:

    Truth: I know you directed this at Bruce, but I think the Pens would be crazy to do that.Does the Oilers first round pick this year even get you Maata? I think it would be close but they wouldn’t do it.Maata is going to be a stud.

    Not to mention, if they are already down a defenseman there is little logic in sending one away to get one, and likely a less talented one, in return.

  40. vangolf says:

    admiralmark,

    Logic left a while ago and was replaced by sentimentality.

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rogue:
    Bruce,

    Any thoughts on Ollie Maata? With Pittsburgh being down a couple of D-men and a forward, would Hemsky and Belov get Maata and a 2nd or 3rd round pick?

    I thought he had a great Olympics. But I suspect the Pens may have a high opinion of him. It would depend on their desperation. Lol. Maybe I answered my own question.

    I love Olli Maatta and I expect he is untouchable. I also expect he will dominate the comments section here in the manner of OEL in past years.

  42. Truth says:

    I say trade all UFA players that the Oilers are not going to re-sign. If MacT has made up his mind on Hemsky, or Hemsky has made up his mind on the Oilers, trade him to the highest bidder at the deadline. No use wasting an asset, but if I’m MacT I sign him. His trade value is terribly low compared to his value to a hockey team, IMO.

    Potter, N Schultz, Brygalov, Fraser, and Jones are not on my team next year. I doubt there’s a market for Fraser and Jones, but you have to try to get at least something.

    Smyth I’d trade to a contender only if that’s his wish. He already did the Oilers a favor in requesting a trade to Edmonton and Edmonton only, therefore costing the Oilers Fraser and a crappy pick. Let him call his own shot.

    Belov I’m sitting down with prior to the deadline. Any interest in coming back to play for the Oilers? Yes? I’ll give him a quarter season try out to make the team next year. He is better than a 5th round pick. No, he doesn’t want to play in Edm. next year? I’ll take the 5th round pick.

    Gagner is a RFA so a different story. Especially considering his injury this season. I’d like to see what he has to show for the entire rest of the season following the Olympic break. If he wants out I trade him in the offseason. So what he has a NTC, we’ve learned that even the Long Island is a more desirable location than Edmonton.

    Edit: Don’t know where I came up with Gagner being an RFA. My point remains the same.

  43. Rondo says:

    8 years of incompetence and now the organization is going to get it right. Reality is no one will offer that much for Hemsky or Gagner. They have been trying to trade them for years. No team is biting at the level Oilers want. Reminds me of a stock price decreasing , You could have had X but now X is gone and everything feels like a loss.

  44. Ben says:

    Burning question:

    If you’re 80% sure you’re going to move an asset, and that asset has had fairly recent injury problems, why on earth would you have them in the lineup for 3 meaningless games leading up to the trade deadline? Scouting’s pretty much done, no?

  45. DeadmanWaking says:

    Bruce McCurdy: They’ll be the next, bigger model in this series.

    I wouldn’t be driving to the airport to pick up friends on the day I’m towing that last unit home to see whether I can actually find a small lens cap whose removal doesn’t permit adding oil. Damn–all I can see is a black rainbow. And it’s raining down.

    Unfortunately, the four-eyes unit is a dead give-away; not that you shouldn’t do a shoulder-check for the local constable’s drone AWACS regardless of which unit you drop onto your hitch, just in case he has a twitchy iPhone finger when that first radar image arrives in fuzzy-preview contouring an inclined cylinder–or few–itching toward some vital, unmarked, formerly joint-Telus/Verizon infrastructure within a ten-mile strike radius as indicated by the frantically pulsating red circle on his Google threat-assessment map; it could be just Entwistle’s halfway-there rest-stop dacha–the poor constable’s iPhone doesn’t distinguish. He’s got a wife and kids. Better safe than sorry.

    In any case, don’t mess with Verizon’s abandoned toys. Even after they’re gone. They’ll be back.

    Hmmm, one could do a nice remake of the MiB audition where little Tiffany is trundling along lugging the mid-size periposeidion cross-hairs behind her tricycle.

  46. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I love Olli Maatta and I expect he is untouchable. I also expect he will dominate the comments section here in the manner of OEL in past years.

    But I thought Jankowksi was supposed to be the best player in his draft year?

    Schadenfreude is a warm blanket I wrap myself in regularly.

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    Sorry CA$H-MONEY!, reading back through the thread now, I realize I’ve duplicated many of the points you were making in your post – especially in regards to the danger of the ‘get good players, KEEP good players’ truism.

  48. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I love Olli Maatta and I expect he is untouchable. I also expect he will dominate the comments section here in the manner of OEL in past years.

    OEL is out of vogue because he was dressed as the #7 D man for Sweden at Olympics ……BUM

    Wonder if we could get him for Potter, Pitlick, Gernat and a 4th

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RexLibris: I had argued this same strategy a few months ago. Zig when the market zags and you can maximize your return.

    Ask LT, I have made variations of this exact comment on his radio show a time or ten. I also wrote about it a few weeks back here. There’s even an Olli Maatta mention!

    Trade deadline and draft day are two very different markets. One is a much more level playing field than the other. At this time of year it makes little sense for a potentially-useful-in-the-playoffs player to be traded to a non-contender. His contract has more intrinsic value to the team that will get games out of the guy in April and May. The extreme example is expiring contracts a.k.a. “rentals” where the guy has either one playoff season left or none depending on whether his team makes the playoffs. But regardless of term left on a deal, you can add +1 for the current playoff contenders and +0 for the also-rans.

    From an Oilers perspective better to trade for such players in the off-season when the second term of the equation is +0 for all teams.

  50. Bruce McCurdy says:

    TheOtherJohn: OEL is out of vogue because he was dressed as the #7 D man for Sweden at Olympics ……BUM

    Wonder if we could get him for Potter, Pitlick, Gernat and a 4th

    Why not offer Belov straight up. He played more minutes during the Olympics than that Ekblad-Larsson dude. ;)

  51. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Ask LT, I have made variations of this exact comment on his radio show a time or ten. I also wrote about it a few weeks back here. There’s even an Olli Maatta mention!

    Trade deadline and draft day are two very different markets. One is a much more level playing field than the other. At this time of year it makes little sense for a potentially-useful-in-the-playoffs player to be traded to a non-contender. His contract has more intrinsic value to the team that will get games out of the guy in April and May. The extreme example is expiring contracts a.k.a. “rentals” where the guy has either one playoff season left or none depending on whether his team makes the playoffs. But regardless of term left on a deal, you can add +1 for the current playoff contenders and +0 for the also-rans.

    From an Oilers perspective better to trade for such players in the off-season when the second term of the equation is +0 for all teams.

    Oilers tried to do that on draft day, Flyers kept moving the line on them. I think the veteran GMs are testing MacT, that began with the Coburn deal and continues through today.

    so the idea of trading off at the deadline and acquiring draft day has appeal in theory, but it takes two to tangle.

  52. Caramel Obvious says:

    The real question is that if Hemsky is only worth a second round pick then how big a contract can he expect in the summer.

    If I’m MacT and the best I can get for Hemsky is a second round pick I try and use this as negotiating tactic to sign Hemsky to a three year, 3.5 M deal.

    Now this probably won’t work because I think that salaries for second and third line players are about to enter a high inflationary period, but it’s at least reasonable.

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Oilers tried to do that on draft day, Flyers kept moving the line on them. I think the veteran GMs are testing MacT, that began with the Coburn deal and continues through today.

    so the idea of trading off at the deadline and acquiring draft day has appeal in theory, but it takes two to tangle.

    Yes, that seems true. Just how anxious is the new guy to make a bold move?

    My point, though, is that a Braydon Coburn has virtually no more value to Oilers today than he will on June 24, whereas he might be much more attractive to a playoff club (or for the Flyers themselves to be more reluctant to move him). The market opens much wider in June. No point in overpaying now for an asset you can’t use in April-May.

  54. oilersfan says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    I think money is probably less than half the important thing for Hemsky. If I am 31 and have made my money, winning now becomes more important. I would take 10-20% less money to play in Chicago or San Jose where I can win in the next three years rather than stay in the perpetual rebuild.

  55. Ben says:

    Don’t worry boys. I won’t be here much longer. :(

  56. Ducey says:

    Ben:
    Don’t worry boys. I won’t be here much longer.

    Ales?

  57. spoiler says:

    Harold Ramis passed away on Monday? What a tragedy. Sorry if this has been mentioned already this week, but I’m just finding out now. RIP Egon, and thank you… you brought us SCTV, Animal House, Meatballs, Caddyshack, Stripes, Ghostbusters and of course, the one about the Oilers, Groundhog Day. You will be missed.

  58. Jordan says:

    Ben:
    Don’t worry boys. I won’t be here much longer.

    It was a quote from Eakins on Stauffer’s show today. Apparently the practice after Ales came back from the olympics, Dallas jokingly commented that maybe the resaon the team wasn’t playing as hard as they had a couple of days earlier was because Ales had come back.

    At which point Ales responds (totally straight-faced) “Don’t worry boys. I won’t be here much longer.”

    And then the whole team laughed together.

    Was a cute anecdote. Couldn’t help feeling a little sad afterwards.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yes, that seems true. Just how anxious is the new guy to make a bold move?

    My point, though, is that a Braydon Coburn has virtually no more value to Oilers today than he will on June 24, whereas he might be much more attractive to a playoff club (or for the Flyers themselves to be more reluctant to move him). The market opens much wider in June. No point in overpaying now for an asset you can’t use in April-May.

    Agreed.

  60. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yes, that seems true. Just how anxious is the new guy to make a bold move?My point, though, is that a Braydon Coburn has virtually no more value to Oilers today than he will on June 24, whereas he might be much more attractive to a playoff club (or for the Flyers themselves to be more reluctant to move him). The market opens much wider in June. No point in overpaying now for an asset you can’t use in April-May.

    And this is something I felt was echoed in LT’s comments about keeping the powder dry.

    Let us compare MacTavish dealing Gagner now as opposed to at the draft. He doesn’t need to make a move now, and if he did it would actually worsen his team in the present and immediate future. he can instead wait until the draft when a GM’s opinion of players and assets can change to make a deal that better suits his objectives.

    Consider also the Bouwmeester trade last year. Feaster became fixated on trading him and rushed a deal when he still had a year left on his contract. The deal meant that the Blues had to take on more salary and was partially responsible for their trading away Perron (thank you, Jay Feaster).

    I know fans don’t see a fit with Gagner and loathe the idea of retaining him into next season because of his poor play this year, inexplicable ennui with him as a player, and concern over the NTC, but MacTavish is coming into most situations with a weak hand and he needs to be prudent to avoid making any rash Garth Snow type decisions.

  61. godot10 says:

    1 1 Edmonton Nail Yakupov R Sarnia Sting [OHL]
    1 2 Columbus Ryan Murray D Everett Silvertips [WHL]
    1 3 Montreal Alex Galchenyuk C Sarnia Sting [OHL]
    1 4 NY Islanders Griffin Reinhart D Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]
    1 5 Toronto Morgan Rielly D Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]
    1 6 Anaheim Hampus Lindholm D Rogle BK [Swe-1]
    1 7 Minnesota Mathew Dumba D Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
    1 8 Pittsburgh Derrick Pouliot D Portland Winterhawks [WHL]
    1 9 Winnipeg Jacob Trouba D U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
    1 10 Tampa Bay Slater Koekkoek D Peterborough Petes [OHL]
    1 11 Washington Filip Forsberg C Leksands IF [Swe-1]
    1 12 Buffalo Mikhail Grigorenko C Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]
    1 13 Dallas Radek Faksa C Kitchener Rangers [OHL]
    1 14 Buffalo Zemgus Girgensons C Dubuque Fighting Saints [USHL]
    1 15 Ottawa Cody Ceci D Ottawa 67′s [OHL]
    1 16 Washington Tom Wilson R Plymouth Whalers [OHL]
    1 17 San Jose Tomas Hertl F Slavia Praha HC [Czech]
    1 18 Chicago Teuvo Teravainen F Jokerit Helsinki [SM-liiga]
    1 19 Tampa Bay Andrei Vasilevski G Ufa Tolpar (Russia)
    1 20 Philadelphia Scott Laughton C Oshawa Generals [OHL]
    1 21 Calgary Mark Jankowski C Stanstead College (Quebec)
    1 22 Pittsburgh Olli Maatta D London Knights [OHL]

    How would a re-draft look? The 1st round of this draft is always going to be an interesting one to look back on over time. It will be a good one for teams to evaluate their scouting processes against.

    The funniest thing is that Maatta isn’t even the first defensemen Pittsburgh took! -).

  62. thejonrmcleod says:

    So MacT acquired 4 useful players (Gordon, Perron, Ference, Scrivens). But he’ll probably be subtracting 2 (Hemsky, Gagner). Would a similar haul this offseason (e.g., Grabovski, Kulemin, Gilbert, Reimer–just examples, I’m not expecting MacT to acquire all these players) be enough to turn the Oilers into a playoff team?

  63. thejonrmcleod says:

    godot10,

    Jankowski would probably go top-3.

  64. RexLibris says:

    thejonrmcleod: godot10, Jankowski would probably go top-3.

    Because Feaster and Weisbrod would steer the Flames to that draft position?

    Seriously though, he may become a decent NHL player, but Feaster should never have waxed poetic about his ceiling and the best thing that could happen to the kid is disappear for three more years and be an afterthought behind better prospects when he arrives at the NHL.

  65. RexLibris says:

    godot10,

    Weber was the 3rd defenseman taken by Nashville in 2003.

  66. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Sorry CA$H-MONEY!, reading back through the thread now, I realize I’ve duplicated many of the points you were making in your post – especially in regards to the danger of the ‘get good players, KEEP good players’ truism.

    Wow. That’s really nice!

    Seriously I was just reading through and feeling bad for myself because no one seemed to care about what I had to say. This brightened my day. Thanks Bag (can I call you bag?).

  67. rickithebear says:

    oilersfan:
    rikkibear

    what do you mean by those numbers? I don’t understand the metrics at all. thanks

    When looking at any team there is a defined period of time for (PP, Pk) and even
    Pk and PP the Avcerage GF or GA rate is 6.15G/60
    At even 2.33G/60.
    There is only so much time For PP G production.
    with 77-80% of time being Even.
    Even Goal Production is Essential.

    Championship teams have a strong top 4 or 5 Even goal production.
    Plus 9-10 forwards that are top 200 2nd line calibre even goal scoring.
    Last two years: Oilers and players with Similiar totals.

    Hall 28 #18 fwd; Hossa; Pavelski; Kunitz, Pacioretty
    Cogliano 27 #22 E. Kane, Benn, Marchand, JVR
    Eberle 25 #31 Couture, Jagr, Johansen, Marleau, Sharp
    Perron 23 #47 Voracek, Vanek, read, J. jokinen
    RNH: his two healthy years with game pace
    22G #50 Lucic, Skinner, Turris, Landeskog, Iginla, Krejci
    Yakupov 18 #86 Grabovski, Orielly, Hubredeau, D. Sedin
    Gagner 15 #136 Goc, Heatley, Kesler, Kulemin, Oshie
    Clarkson 12 #194 Hartnell, Backlund, Calvert, King, Couturier, Burrows
    Hemsky 10 #232
    Gordon 10 MP, Brodziak, Bolland, Ott, C. Wilson, Prust, Gaustad, Clifford
    Hendricks 8 #272
    Horcoff 6 #304
    Smyth 5 #324 Erat, B. boyle

    Eberle had 24 EVG in 10-11

    So i have no problem with
    Hall, Eberle, Perron Healthy RNH, Yakupov in our top 9 all first line Even goal scorers last 2 years.

    we need top 90-200 scoring from the next 5 forwards
    Gagner and hemsky do not cut it at 10M
    Hendricks and Gordon are on the fringe but are respectable for buried Zone start.

    the UFA’s and were they are at:
    Vanek 24 #38
    J. Jokinen 22 #50
    Boyes 21 #58
    Stastny 21
    Camalerri 18 #86
    Grabovski 18
    O. Jokinen 18
    Legwand 16 #119
    Raymond 16
    Setoguchi 16
    Vrbata 16
    Goc 15 #138
    kulemin 15
    Callahan 14 #156 6M LOL
    J. Mitchell 14
    M. Moulson 14
    Santorelli 14
    B. pouliot 13 #178
    Stempniak 12 # 191
    Bolland 10G #231in 50 GM
    Ott 10
    Penner 10
    Winnick 10
    Moss 9 #256

    Hall-Gordon-Yak
    Perron-Arco-XXX
    Hendricks-RNH-Ebs
    XXX-Lander-XXX
    Gazdic-XXX

    Boyes, Goc, Erat,

  68. Ribs says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I’m straining to see a possession team here, ladies and men. I’ve ordered the glasses, but they aren’t here yet.

    They’re still under development. They’ll be the next, bigger model in this series.

    Maybe he ordered some of these?

  69. Jordan says:

    Ribs: Maybe he ordered some of these?

    Man – where were those 5 years ago when Tambellini took over? That would have really helped get me through this re-build.

    Does anyone else want to order a case of those glasses to send to flames fans? =D

  70. BrazilianOil says:

    If hemsky resigns, MacT have eberle or Yak as a assets to trade to fill the 1D.

  71. Melman says:

    BrazilianOil:
    If hemsky resigns, MacT have eberle or Yak as a assets totrade to fill the 1D.

    From a “fast forward the rebuild” point of view. I’m certain there’s a very good argument to be made that the better hockey move would be to try and resign Hemsky at even $4Mx3 and deal Eberle (assuming he would bring back more than Yak today). Eberle + something (maybe not even needed) could bring back a true 2C or top pairing D. Worst case scenario that still leaves you Gagner to slide over to RW if you can’t move him in June.

    Love Ebs, but that might be the better hockey move – although Ernie will be right pissed.

  72. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Wow. That’s really nice!Seriously I was just reading through and feeling bad for myself because no one seemed to care about what I had to say. This brightened my day. Thanks Bag (can I call you bag?).

    It was a very good post. The concept of value and how to express it is something I have been bouncing around in my head for a few weeks. It started with thinking about draft and trade strategies so your comment resonated with me too.

  73. G Money says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Wow.That’s really nice!

    Seriously I was just reading through and feeling bad for myself because no one seemed to care about what I had to say.This brightened my day.Thanks Bag (can I call you bag?).

    As your distant relative (the Money bros?), I feel compelled to say to you that you will never achieve true happiness if responses on a blog – even an enlightened one like Lowetide – can affect your mood to that extent!

    Repeat after me: “I’m good enough. I’m smart enough. And doggone it, people like me!”

  74. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RexLibris: Let us compare MacTavish dealing Gagner now as opposed to at the draft. He doesn’t need to make a move now, and if he did it would actually worsen his team in the present and immediate future. he can instead wait until the draft when a GM’s opinion of players and assets can change to make a deal that better suits his objectives.

    Except the opposite side of the same coin I presented earlier faces up in this case. Gagner is of more potential value to a playoff team today than he will be on draft day. They would get the rest of the season for a fraction of his cap hit, plus get his services in the playoffs. The latter is of zero value to the Oilers. So they could potentially extract a higher price for him in March than in June.

  75. russ99 says:

    The other issue being that MacT let the Gagner arbitration date hang out and then caved at the last minute.

    I believe he was looking for a trade partner and didn’t like what he was being offered, so made the deal as not to lose an asset as the youngest UFA ever this summer.

    If Gagner was part of the future plan back then, I’d think a deal would have been done sooner, at slightly more team-friendly terms.

    But we’re not in the room, so who really knows.

    Either Gagner/his agent is a shark and played the situation to their best outcome or MacT couldn’t get something done so he pushed the decision another year.

    Either way, this isn’t something we want to leave hanging if MacT has decided to cut bait.

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