Tyler Dellow has two brilliant posts up re: Taylor Hall and the mysterious and ever-increasing drumbeat on his season. The boxcars remain sublime, but the underlying issue with shots for while on ice is real and troubling.
TAYLOR HALL PLAYER CARD
The boxcars are terrific, shots on goal in the same range as one year ago and his shooting percentage up .5%. Nothing major there, just a gifted young player moving the needle and emerging as one of the best players in the game. The concern—the Charlie Watts drumbeat in the driving rhythm section—is that Corsi for % at 5×5. It’s gone from north of 50% in his first two seasons to 43.6% this year. Hammer on a drum.
Tyler Dellow’s ability to parse the numbers is well established, but I think we’re seeing him identify a problem and offer a solution in real time. Dallas Eakins needs to read this NOW. I’m not going to quote the entire article, because this is something we all need to read and understand, but wanted to tease the two part series with this:
- Dellow: What does this all tell us? I see three issues. First, the Oilers have become much more likely to dump pucks into the offensive zone with Hall on the ice at 5v5. Second, (in this sample at least but keep in mind that it was picked because it was pretty representative of the whole), they suck at retrieving those pucks. Third, they’ve gotten worse at generating shot attempts when they do carry the puck into the offensive zone.
If you’ve followed Eric Tulsky’s work on zone entries, you know there’s a very strong connection between carrying the puck in with possession and scoring goals. Tyler’s comment here is very disturbing, because it speaks to a change in strategy (by Hall or by the coaching staff, also addressed in the articles) and that strategy is killing an otherwise brilliant season by 4.
I think we’re at a point now where the information provided by Dellow, Tulsky and a few others are beyond the things uncovered by Bill James (things like k/w ratio predicting future success, platoon advantage being very pronounced, a 21-year old rookie being more likely to have an impact career than a 24-year old rookie with the same numbers) in his abstracts.
The articles by Dellow are providing real research and analysis (and a solution) about a real time problem. In a world where ‘advanced stats’ is thrown around way too often, Dellow’s two-part item on Hall identifies the problem and offers a solution. We should read it, digest it and then count the days until the Oilers change their zone entry credo.