HOW IS THAT CRAZY TRADE DOING?

Do you remember those two draft day trades that involved Los Angeles and St. Louis? How did they work again? Who won? Well, who is winning?

  • First trade: Edmonton trades 37th overall (Valentin Zykov) to Los Angeles for 57th overall (William Carrier), 88th overall (Anton Slephyshev) and 96th overall (Kyle Platzer).

Let’s break this down via their boxcars:

  1. Zykov 42GP, 19-36-55 (1.31 points per game)  (QMJHL)
  2. Carrier 51GP, 14-33-47 (.921 points per game) (QMJHL)
  3. Slepyshev 32GP, 3-5-8 (.250 points per game) (KHL)
  4. Platzer 54GP, 16-12-28 (.519 points per game) (OHL)

Since we can’t compare apples and oranges, let’s use Rob Vollman’s NHL equivalencies to suss things out:

  1. Zykov 82GP, 10-18-28
  2. Carrier 82GP, 6-14-20
  3. Slepyshev 82GP, 6-10-16
  4. Platzer 82GP, 7-6-13

Zykov is the clearly superior player. I think this deal on its own doesn’t satisfy the trade based only on the NHLE’s. Now, we know Slepyshev isn’t getting a lot of playing time, and that Platzer was traded and is playing more now, but those aren’t good reasons to justify a trade—they’re factors and curios, things to be kept in mind. Would you trade Carrier, Slepyshev and Plazter for Zykov? Maybe, but it’s not a slam dunk and you can see why a team would turn it down. Zykov’s a stud so far, that’s a real nice hockey player.

I believe Los Angeles won this trade from our current view. Let’s wander down the river a little and see how the second deal worked out.

  • Second trade: Oilers trade 57th overall (William Carrier) to St. Louis for 83rd overall (Bogdan Yakimov), 94th overall (Jackson Houck) and 113th overall (Aidain Muir).

Let’s do the boxcars again:

  1. Carrier 51GP, 14-33-47 (.921 points per game) (QMJHL)
  2. Yakimov 33GP, 7-5-12 (.364 points per game) (KHL)
  3. Jackson Houck 58, 28-17-45 (.776 points per game (WHL)
  4. Aidan Muir 38GP, 11-13-24 (.632 points per game) (USHL)

And then we head to the Vollman room:

  1. Carrier 82GP, 6-14-20
  2. Yakimov 82GP, 14-9-23
  3. Houck 82GP, 10-7-17
  4. Muir 82GP, 6-8-14

It is not clear that Carrier is the superior player. In fact, considering Yakimov is playing in a man’s league (and a very good one) then I think it’s fair to question if he’s the best prospect today in that trade. Now, that’s different than stating a fact, we don’t know. However, it’s a question worth asking and that alone makes this a different trade than the LAK deal above.

I think Edmonton won this trade from our current view.

DID THEY WIN THE DAY?

If we break it down to what was sent away and what was returned, run it through the Vollman machine, we get this for NHLE:

  1. Zykov 82GP, 10-18-28
  2. Yakimov 82GP, 14-9-23
  3. Houck 82GP, 10-7-17
  4. Slepyshev 82GP, 6-10-16
  5. Muir 82GP, 6-8-14
  6. Platzer 82GP, 7-6-13

The final tally is Zykov for Yakimov, Houck, Slepyshev, Muir and Platzer. Now, let’s talk a little reality here. There are going to be some on this list of six who never play a game. Some will discover women (thank GOODNESS they haven’t yet!), some will discover demon liquor, others will discover their feet of clay can’t get them from point A to B.

We don’t know the answer. The coolest bullet in the chamber is Zykov. The distance between him and Yakimov is not (to my eye) enough to justify the addition of Houck and Slepyshev who I rate as legit prospects.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

cashmanThe Edmonton Oilers went to the entry draft in search of a specific player type. A man who could play a physical game while playing a complementary role on a skill line. They traded down at #37 in order to add bullets to the collection. They traded Zykov for more chances at a Wayne Cashman—a complementary player who can deliver enough offensively to play with skill.

Now I’m not suggesting Bogdam Yakimov or Jackson Houck is going to deliver an 89-point season in the NHL, but if that big Russian can slide between Nail Yakupov and Ales Hemsky one day? I can see the vision.

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48 Responses to "HOW IS THAT CRAZY TRADE DOING?"

  1. Romulus' Apotheosis says:

    Part of the analysis surely has to be how the scouts rated the draft year in general and the range-eligible players.

    If the scouts are saying what’s available at 37 isn’t clearly better than what you can get through the next 100 picks or so, that’s important.

    It sure sounded like the scouts were of the opinion that there was a sharp drop off of talent ebbing into a kind of plateau of prospects, whereby value in numbers became paramount.

    Now, in 5 years we’ll know if that assessment was right. But I think it is important to suggest that this event was context specific.

  2. oliveoilers says:

    Let’s just say that LA is currently WINNING the trade, for the now. As we all know, none of the factors are measured by a linear line. I think the one thing everybody here agrees on here is the development of young players is by no means set in stone. For every Robbie Schremp, there’s a Pavel Datsyuk. It would seem that MacT believes in drafting for need further down the rounds.

  3. Romulus' Apotheosis says:

    @Oliveoilers

    I would actually be much more squishy about it, even by today’s standard.

    I’d say that probably all 3 teams are satisfied with their return thus far. LAK have to be thrilled with Zykov. We know that MacT is in love with Yakimov, had kind things to say about Slappy and I bet Houck is a fan favorite of at least 2 of the brass.

    I don’t know much about Carrier, or how St. Lou rates him, but at this early stage I bet they are happy with the return. They obviously valued him enough on draft day to make that trade.

    This is one of those weird ones where I think it is pretty safe to say (at least for now) that everyone wins.

  4. oliveoilers says:

    Romulus’ Apotheosis:
    Part of the analysis surely has to be how the scouts rated the draft year in general and the range-eligible players.

    If the scouts are saying what’s available at 37 isn’t clearly better than what you can get through the next 100 picks or so, that’s important.

    It sure sounded like the scouts were of the opinion that there was a sharp drop off of talent ebbing into a kind of plateau of prospects, whereby value in numbers became paramount.

    Now, in 5 years we’ll know if that assessment was right. But I think it is important to suggest that this event was context specific.

    If my foresight was as good as my foresight, I’d be better off by a damnsight!

    It’s still a crap-shoot, all be it an educated one.

  5. Melman says:

    LT, the sun has finally broke through the clouds and the mythical 3 for 1 unicorn is here! Zykov for Yakimov, Houck & Slepyshev…..dang wait a second

  6. fifthcartel says:

    5 point night (afternoon?) for Moroz, 2g 3a.

  7. Romulus' Apotheosis says:

    BTW other prospect news…

    Ryan Batty ‏@ryan_batty 1h
    Safe to say that nobody predicted this before the season started. RT @EdmOilKings: 30th of the year for @MitchMoroz.

    This is a good point. I think it is important to emphasize how stark the scoring card is for Moroz vs. expectations and history. The fact that he’s kept it up all year is really amazing. As a draft +2 he should be killing it, but still to finally see him score is really something.

    And, the much maligned (by me included) EC has come to life!

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 3h
    #Oilers 2013 draft pick Evan Campbell (@sooups93) of @RiverHawkHockey has been named @Hockey_East rookie of the week!

    Of all the 2013 picks this one was/is the most questionable. Still miles from anything, but showing signs of life as LT would say!

  8. Sliderule says:

    I see that some of our posters favorite player Draisaitl got a goal and assist.No penalty minutes and plus one.The goal was on pp.

    The guy that the oilers might have a chance at Bennett got three goals in a win and plus 3 and 4 pm.
    The pm were for slashing and high sticking.No hooking or holding.lol.

  9. Zangetsu says:

    I know this is just a quick look, but we have to keep in mind the other 40some players passed on with these deals. Also that zykov is a player.

  10. flyfish1168 says:

    Just as important Greg Chase 2 assist against MH Tigers which is a pretty good team.

  11. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    Just as important Greg Chase 2 assist against MH Tigers which is a pretty good team.

    That guy is going to eat everyone’s lunch.

  12. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    Moroz

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/2/17/dirty-30

    He’s on pace for about 40+. That bests JFJ and Baum. You mentioned Baum’s injury, but didn’t JFJ have some serious back injury issues?

  13. Melman says:

    Lowetide,

    What was he doing hanging around the 7th? Fantastic season, I hope he carries that chip on his shoulder all the way to the show

  14. Romulus' Apotheosis says:

    Missed this a few days ago:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=26199&cmpid=blogheadlines

    I wonder if the team is higher on Belov than we might suspect (I’ve tabled this a few times now). I think he might still be here when the dust settles at the deadline and he might be a regular.

  15. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia: He’s on pace for about 40+.That bests JFJ and Baum.You mentioned Baum’s injury, but didn’t JFJ have some serious back injury issues?

    Yes. In my strange way of thinking (2+2=whatever the hell I want it to be) Jacques was a success, though. I don’t think we can bitch about him as a draft fail. He wasn’t good enough, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t anything there.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Melman:
    Lowetide,

    What was he doing hanging around the 7th?Fantastic season, I hope he carries that chip on his shoulder all the way to the show

    I don’t know. Just glad the Oilers took him.

  17. Chad says:

    I don’t want to be a naysayer, but… I went to the training camp in Sherwood Park for a couple ice times (as I’m sure many others did) and Yakimov looked positively terrible. His skating was not merely a weakness, it was a dramatic disadvantage compared to the others. Now, I haven’t seen him since, but I left that camp thinking that he just won’t make it if his skating is at that level. I SURE HOPE I’M WRONG, but while his stats in the K may be promising, I just can’t shake the memory of how poor his skating was.

    Am I on an island here or did others see/feel the same?

  18. Sliderule says:

    Chase was rated much higher.

    I remember listening to a pipeline show and the report on him was that he wasn’t scoring like expected but he had a lot of skill.

    He is obviously scoring better than oilers expected or they wouldn’t have picked obvious winners like Aidan Muir and Evan Campbell ahead of him.

  19. Bookjie says:

    Ok – I want to try to log in, but I can’t even find the log in screen anymore?

    Help – someone?

  20. Lowetide says:

    Sliderule:
    Chase was rated much higher.

    I remember listening to a pipeline show andthe report on him was that he wasn’tscoring like expected but he had a lot of skill.

    He is obviouslyscoring better than oilers expected or they wouldn’t have picked obvious winners like Aidan Muirand Evan Campbell ahead of him.

    There’s no doubt the Oilers passed over him a bunch. I always wonder what the scouts are doing at that point in the draft. I mean, if you’ve scouted Chase you MUST know he’s better than a few of the jack-o-lantern guys taken ahead. So how do you finally get their attention?

    I think that’s a key element of the draft. Trust.

  21. theres oil in virginia says:

    Bookjie:
    Ok – I want to try to log in, but I can’t even find the log in screen anymore?

    Help – someone?

    Try:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/wp-login.php

    Courtesy of “Ryan” from a previous thread.

  22. Sliderule says:

    @ LT
    I can’t get the reply so here it is.

    If the oilers hadn’t done the oil change show I wouldn’t be so cynical about oilers management.

    The show made them seem to be a bunch of guys who really had no clue.There was very little structure in their meetings or decision making.

    Then when you see Katz bringing his kid into the final draft meeting to discuss the final picks you think wtf.
    I have a lot of trust in Mact and believe he realizes how important the draft is and adding assets to make your drafting better..
    I truly believe Mact is making the changes needed in oilers management structure and focus.

  23. russ99 says:

    Part 4 of Tyler Dellow’s Hall series:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6717

    I hope Eakins or MacT reads it.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Sliderule:
    @ LT
    I can’t get the reply so here it is.

    If the oilers hadn’t done the oil change show I wouldn’t be so cynical about oilers management.

    The show made them seem to be a bunch of guys who really had no clue.There was very little structure in their meetings or decision making.

    Then when you see Katz bringing his kid into the final draft meeting to discuss the final picks you think wtf.
    I have a lot of trust in Mact and believe he realizeshow important the draft is and adding assets to make your drafting better..
    I truly believe Mact is making the changes needed in oilers management structure and focus.

    I agree with every word. I think Tambi might have been the sort of person who didn’t have the room, if you know what I mean.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I agree with every word. I think Tambi might have been the sort of person who didn’t have the room, if you know what I mean.

    By all reports were not even sure his dog listened to him.

  26. frjohnk says:

    russ99,

    Dellow is a beast with this stuff.

    Next free agent signing MacT does should be Dellow.

  27. ashley says:

    Katz’ kid is legit. He is currently cutting his teeth as a marketing and press officer as TreenasOil and is being groomed for promotion to a new position overseeing the president of hockey operations’ work in coming years.

    Apparently he already has extensive experience in hockey operations learned on EA Sports dating back to NHL ’05, and has completed over 300 hockey trades assembling some of the greatest NHL video game teams of all time.

  28. flyfish1168 says:

    Chase has another year before he turns pro. I like to see him and Nurse on the Canada’s WJ hockey team. Since next year it is also in Canada.

  29. steveb12344 says:

    ashley:
    Katz’ kid is legit.He is currently cutting his teeth as a marketing and press officer as TreenasOil and is being groomed for promotion to a new position overseeing the president of hockey operations’ work in coming years.

    Apparently he already has extensive experience in hockey operations learned on EA Sports dating back to NHL ’05, and has completed over 300 hockey trades assembling some of the greatest NHL video game teams of all time.

    He does kinda look like the nerdy stat guy from Moneyball. Maybe he’s in charge of the Oilers advanced stat department.

  30. gcw_rocks says:

    If you go back to the old adage that “whomever got the best player wins” then the Oilers (so far) lost.

    Yakimov has the potential to turn things around for MacT, but that’s asking a lot from a kid with reported skating issues.

    I am a big believer in quality over quantity at the draft.

  31. jp says:

    Chad:
    I don’t want to be a naysayer, but… I went to the training camp in Sherwood Park for a couple ice times (as I’m sure many others did) and Yakimov looked positively terrible. His skating was not merely a weakness, it was a dramatic disadvantage compared to the others. Now, I haven’t seen him since, but I left that camp thinking that he just won’t make it if his skating is at that level. I SURE HOPE I’M WRONG, but while his stats in the K may be promising, I just can’t shake the memory of how poor his skating was.

    Am I on an island here or did others see/feel the same?

    No, you’re not on an island. Bruce McCurdy mentioned it in his development camp reports, among others. He seems to be getting the job done in the KHL though, and by most/all reports had a good W Jrs. Maybe he’s not as bad a skater as he looks (remember Keith Primeau?). Someone who watched his W Jr or KHL games might be able to add more.

  32. Caramel Obvious says:

    Yakimov looked good at the juniors though Slepyshev is the one who looked like a star. Best player on the ice for Russia shift after shift.

  33. Hammers says:

    gcw_rocks:
    If you go back to the old adage that “whomever got the best player wins” then the Oilers (so far) lost.

    Yakimov has the potential to turn things around for MacT, but that’s asking a lot from a kid with reported skating issues.

    I am a big believer in quality over quantity at the draft.

    Oh so true . The only other thing is age . The younger they are the easier it must have been to make those deals .

  34. jp says:

    gcw_rocks:
    If you go back to the old adage that “whomever got the best player wins” then the Oilers (so far) lost.

    Yakimov has the potential to turn things around for MacT, but that’s asking a lot from a kid with reported skating issues.

    I am a big believer in quality over quantity at the draft.

    Yeah, but getting the “best player” requires known entities. This is a lot more like adding a bunch of probabilities together. Best player doesn’t have quite the same meaning when that player still only has a 25-50% chance of playing in the NHL.

    I’d say the Oilers have a better chance of getting a combined 200 NHL games out of their 5 players than the Kings do from Zykov. But maybe Zykov has a better chance to be an impact player than all 5 Oilers picks. We don’t really know, but I don’t think it’s clear cut. I like the idea in theory in any case.

    It’s all such a crap shoot with the draft though (which is kinda the point). MacT would be seen as an absolute genius if the Oilers had taken Chase with one of those picks.

  35. delooper says:

    gcw_rocks:
    If you go back to the old adage that “whomever got the best player wins” then the Oilers (so far) lost.

    The idea of winners and losers in a trade presupposes some kind of zero-sum game. It’s not a zero-sum game. Both teams can win, and both can lose, too.

  36. Lowetide says:

    delooper:
    If you go back to the old adage that “whomever got the best player wins” then the Oilers (so far) lost.

    The idea of winners and losers in a trade presupposes some kind of zero-sum game. It’s not a zero-sum game. Both teams can win, and both can lose, too

    What the hell? What the hell!

  37. delooper says:

    Lowetide: What the hell? What the hell!

    Here’s something that’s really hard to pull off: a team to win and lose simultaneously. I’m not saying its impossible but it’s difficult.

    That’s the sound of my one hand clapping, BTW.

  38. Bank Shot says:

    jp: Yeah, but getting the “best player” requires known entities. This is a lot more like adding a bunch of probabilities together. Best player doesn’t have quite the same meaning when that player still only has a 25-50% chance of playing in the NHL.

    I’d say the Oilers have a better chance of getting a combined 200 NHL games out of their 5 players than the Kings do from Zykov. But maybe Zykov has a better chance to be an impact player than all 5 Oilers picks. We don’t really know, but I don’t think it’s clear cut. I like the idea in theory in any case.

    It’s all such a crap shoot with the draft though (which is kinda the point). MacT would be seen as an absolute genius if the Oilers had taken Chase with one of those picks.

    It’s hard to calculate probability too when certain teams do better at the draft then others. The Oilers are definitely a bottom tier team in drafting so I prefer them to take a scattershot approach.

  39. CalgaryOilFan says:

    Long time reader, very rarely poster. Was at the hitmen game today. Chase’s assists were both primary assists on the power play. Both were nice cross crease feeds the second a no looker. He was on first unit power play working the half board and also played as a fourth forward on defense on the second. Seemed to be the quarter back of the power play. He seemed comfortable either shooting or paSsing Was also quick to come to one of his teammates defense dropping the gloves. Only negative was he didn’t seem as engaged in his own zone as he was in the offensive zone.
    Fleury looked pretty good for the rebels. Quarterbacks their number one power play unit

  40. DeadmanWaking says:

    russ99:
    Part 4 of Tyler Dellow’s Hall series: http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6717
    I hope Eakins or MacT reads it.

    Tyler does good work, but I never fail to notice the subtle difference between the legal mind and the elite ranks of soft-problem STEMsters (science/technology/engineering/math): Tyler rarely devotes equal time to shifting-the-burden side effects.

    In this case, I was left contemplating the dumping tortoise and the humping hare.

    We have maybe one guy who can carry the puck into the attack zone time and again, all game long, every game of the season.

    It’s a different style of running the offence that everyone out on the ice with Hall needs to master and be comfortable with. And on their next shift: something different again.

    The coach might actually have some elite guys who can play any style on any shift. We have the Nuge, Hemmer, and Smytty. Perhaps Eberle, or eventually Jultz.

    Well, Hemmer and Smytty aren’t best suited in what they bring to the table to being sent out with Hall. Right adaptation, wrong tools.

    Suddenly catering to the excellence of Hall’s zone-busting moves is becoming a real burden on the coach in what he can do with his line matching, adjusting to injury, or a key player serving hard time in the box.

    Then what about the twenty games that Hall spends soaking in the steaming Gumby-rejuvenation oil bath?

    Then what? Promote Hemmer to the top line? Hemmer, who has more head fakes at the opposition’s blue line to wrong-foot his own linemates than Tom Wilkinson back in the day stringing a drive together at 2nd and a long five, down by a ten points heading into the dying half of the fourth quarter? (When this worked, he throws the bomb at second down repeated; if this fails to connect, sneaks for the 1st down at 3rd and chickenshit).

    Having five guys out there on the ice, each playing to his unique strength is practically the antithesis of a team game.

    No, what you do is take at look at your truly elite talents (like Hall now, perhaps RNH in future years) to decide whether green-circling the gifted stallion is a net win, when all the rippling impacts elsewhere are present and accounted for.

    For a team like the Hawks who have a strong, successful identity and sound fundamentals throughout their roster, the tariff of green-circling Patrick Kane has been paid in full through years of careful management and team building.

    The logic ends up reduced to this: if their long-serving hardened Land Cruiser can handle the trail, surely our little Kia can too. Just as soon as we finish welding on sturdier roll bars, perhaps we’ll find time to service the suspension, and maybe even upgrade those three summer tires and service spare into a matched set of magnesium world-beaters with off-road treads that spit muck instead of caking smooth.

  41. anonymous says:

    My only problem with the trade was the cost of the pick, Cogs. Always liked him.

  42. DeadmanWaking says:

    If I were going to dig into the difference between legal minds and STEMsters in the soft-problem sphere, I would start with the inherently whack-a-mole character of the doctrine of Stare decisis.

    In STEM, there’s far more recourse to code refactoring, which one could argue as an opposing doctrine. Refactoring–in its best instance–is shifting the burden back again, and cutting it off at the root.

    Two different fleshy appendages of the systems theory elephant, with contrasting pros and cons.

  43. gcw_rocks says:

    jp,

    I believe the point of the draft is to try and acquire impact players. Third and fourth line players and bottom pairing defenders are easily acquired through free agency (Oilers history excepted). Even if you have to overpay, the upside cost is marginal. On the other hand, acquiring impact players through free agency costs a fortune.

    So, if you believe that the Kings are the more likely team to have acquired an impact player, then I strongly believe the Oilers lost the trade.

  44. speeds says:

    I am generally a fan of trading down, but in that specific situation I’d have liked to see the Oilers stay at 37 and select Petan.

  45. Sliderule says:

    The Russian WJC coaches sure thought the oilers won the trade as Zykov got very little ice and slypy and Yakimov were on the ice for every important play.

    Yakimov was relied on for all the important face offs.His skating is a work in progress but like Draisaitl he has grown a lot and isn’t that agile.His straight ahead speed looked fine it’s just his edges..The Russian coaches let him get caught on on a couple of long shifts and like a lot of big guys looked clumsy when tired.He is scoring at a real good rate in second best league in the world so he has good hands.

  46. admiralmark says:

    Soooo Hemsky’s not getting traded?

  47. godot10 says:

    DeadmanWaking:

    Having five guys out there on the ice, each playing to his unique strength is practically the antithesis of a team game.

    The difference between a good coach and a bad coach is that a good coach is a like a neural network that finds an optimal style of play given the strengths of his individual players, while a bad coach (i.e. Eakins) goes to the lowest common denominator.

    That is the difference between 24th with a worse roster last year, and 29th with a better roster this year.

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