WHAT’S THE FREQUENCY, KENNETH?

It looks like the deadline is going to be about re-stocking the shelves for the 2014 entry draft. Edmonton has their own first, and then no picks until #116 (San Jose’s fourth) and that’s going to be an area to address.

MACT’S WORDS TODAY

  • “It’s a tough market to predict at this point, but we’ll be having those discussions.”
  • “I’d be disappointed if we weren’t able to get our second- or third-rounder back.”
  • “And potentially more than that. If we’re sitting at the draft with our first pick and then we’re not picking again until the fourth round, that’d be disappointing.”
  • “That’s exactly what we’re going to try and do – get those picks back.”

There was some verbal earlier (and I felt it was possible) that the Oilers would be looking for live players. However, teams don’t want to move them now because they’re trying. to. win. the. game. So, picks it is.

SHINING

WHAT’S THE FREQUENCY, KENNETH?

  • Ales Hemsky: First-round draft pick (or a second and a fourth).
  • Nick Schultz: A third round pick.
  • Ryan Smyth: A fourth round pick.
  • Corey Potter: A fourth round pick.
  • Anton Belov: A fourth round pick.
  • Ilya Bryzgalov: A fourth round pick.
  • Jesse Joensuu: A fourth round pick.
  • Taylor Fedun: A fourth round pick.
  • Mark Fraser: A fourth round pick.
  • Luke Gazdic: A fifth round pick.
  • Ryan Jones: A sixth round pick.
  • Denis Grebeshkov: A seventh round pick.
  • Ben Eager: A seventh round pick.

That’s my estimate, you’re welcome to add/delete/disagree. I think all defensemen can fetch a fourth unless you’re motor functions are in question.

I predict the Oilers draft this summer in the first four rounds this summer: #4, #43, #84, #103 and #116.

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124 Responses to "WHAT’S THE FREQUENCY, KENNETH?"

  1. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Courage.

  2. nelson88 says:

    I could see Bryz getting a 3rd or even a 2nd if they decide to move him.

    Makes sense to get picks now and use them at the draft when they are much more dear.

  3. RexLibris says:

    I picture MacTavish (or MacGregor) going to the podium in the fourth round and saying “with picks 116 through 134 the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select, in alphabetical order, the following players…”

    On a more serious note, last year I looked into how teams approach the first round when they have multiple picks as part of ongoing discussions over at FN due to the Flames three 1st rounders in 2013. Historically, teams with multiple picks in a round seem to take the second or third pick in that round to go walkabout rather than stick to their list, regardless of whether they have a pick in the following round.

    It is sort of a drunken sailor mentality when it comes to selection – “well, we’ve got that third 5th rounder, so instead of sticking to the list let’s let Johnny the intern make the pick”.

    The Oilers last year didn’t seem to do this as much as they had in previous years (ie: 2007) so if they do hoard a number of picks in a single round I hold out hope that they will make sober selections or use them to trade up in a few cases.

  4. Ducey says:

    •Ales Hemsky: First-round draft pick (or a second and a fourth).
    •Nick Schultz: A third round pick.
    •Ryan Smyth: A fourth round pick.
    •Corey Potter: A fourth round pick.
    •Anton Belov: A fourth round pick.
    •Ilya Bryzgalov: A fourth round pick.
    •Jesse Joensuu: A fourth round pick.
    •Taylor Fedun: A fourth round pick.
    •Mark Fraser: A fourth round pick.
    •Luke Gazdic: A fifth round pick.
    •Ryan Jones: A sixth round pick.
    •Denis Grebeshkov: A seventh round pick.
    •Ben Eager: A seventh round pick.

    I don’t see how Eager, Jones or Grebeshkov (whose motor functions are apparently in question) would net anything. They all passed thru waivers this year.

    They won’t trade Fedun. They will need some bodies. They won’t trade Gazdik either – he is worth more than a 6th.

    Joensuu has another year on his contract. He doesn’t seem like a fit for a playoff team.

    Otherwise I agree. Bring on the 4th rounders!

  5. spoiler says:

    I think all your estimates are in the range, LT… Here are my nitpicks:

    Might be able to do better than a 6th for Jones, assuming someone wants him. And I’m guessing that Fedun won’t bring a 4th, considering that he has basically zero NHL experience. There’s probably little demand for him at this time of year. Belov, considering how cheap he is and his international play, could bring a 3rd.

  6. spoiler says:

    Ducey: I don’t see how Eager, Jones or Grebeshkov (whose motor functions are apparently in question) would net anything. They all passed thru waivers this year.

    I think in general you’re right, however this is a different time of year than when they were waived with different considerations and less impact to a team’s cap hit. So there might be a unique fit out there, slim as those odds are.

  7. Woodguy says:

    There was some verbal earlier (and I felt it was possible) that the Oilers would be looking for live players. However, teams don’t want to move them now because they’re trying. to. win. the. game. So, picks it is.

    You never get a real live NHLer at the deadline.

    You can buy prospects cheaper now than ever though, but not everyone will sell them, or lower their value enough to sell them.

    Any verbal was more for “in-season trading” and not deadline deals, no?

  8. anonymous says:

    I hope they keep Gazdic. I really don’t want to see SMac play for the oilers again.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    There was some verbal earlier (and I felt it was possible) that the Oilers would be looking for live players. However, teams don’t want to move them now because they’re trying. to. win. the. game. So, picks it is.

    You never get a real live NHLer at the deadline.

    You can buy prospects cheaper now than everthough, but not everyone will sell them, or lower their value enough to sell them.

    A year ago, Gaborik for Brassard plus went down April 3, Ben Bishop for Cory Conacher went down. It does happen.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=663625

  10. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    I wonder if some of that “verbal” wasn’t us fans blue-skying over the possibility of getting warm bodies (specifically NHL-ready prospects) as a return.

  11. The Great One says:

    The latest edition of Insider Trading:

    http://www.tsn.ca/videohub/?collection=72&show=297167

  12. art vandelay says:

    Nobody on that list past Cryin’ Ryan is worth a bag of pucks. Contenders don’t tend to load up on AHL-level talent,

  13. misfit says:

    nelson88:
    I could see Bryz getting a 3rd or even a 2nd if they decide to move him.

    Makes sense to get picks now and use them at the draft when they are much more dear.

    My only question is who is this team that is going to give upwards of a second rounder for a goaltender who would likely be their backup for the playoffs?

    Any of the teams who would see Bryzgalov as an upgrade on their starter probably aren’t playoff teams, or at least contenders. Adding Bryz doesn’t put them into contender status either. And if a team really is a contender with questionable goaltending (St.Louis perhaps), I’d think giving up more for a Miller/Brodeur would be more beneficial than taking on Bryz for lesser assets.

    Everyone else acquiring Bryzgalov would essentially be bringing him in as a backup for the playoffs. Is that insurance in net worth giving up a 2nd round pick at the deadline? Especially when that same pick could be used to add a depth defenseman or a forward who might actually get into a game?

  14. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: A year ago, Gaborik for Brassard plus went down April 3, Ben Bishop for Cory Conacher went down. It does happen.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=663625

    Agreed that its not a unicorn, or a 3rd line that scores, but its still pretty rare.

  15. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris:
    Woodguy,

    I wonder if some of that “verbal” wasn’t us fans blue-skying over the possibility of getting warm bodies (specifically NHL-ready prospects) as a return.

    I wouldn’t doubt that MacT is asking for warm bodies more than picks.

    Whether he’ll get it is a different questions though.

  16. spoiler says:

    Question is, how much do we believe MacT’s words? Is this the truth or is it misdirection? They certainly seem to belie the rumours out of Ottawa about the LA play for Gagner.

  17. Younger Oil says:

    Another thing about trading Bryz: Likely if he is traded, with no replacement, BTO will be called up to fill the backup role, leaving Bunz as the starter for the Barons, who are fighting for a playoff spot. One could argue that a rookie goaltender could cost them a chance at the post season (and I’m a Bunz fan).

    Is a mid round pick worth the risk of preventing Lander, Pitlick, Klefbom, Gernat etc from playing some big games in the postseason?

  18. Woodguy says:

    art vandelay:
    Nobody on that list past Cryin’ Ryan is worth a bag of pucks. Contenders don’t tend to load up on AHL-level talent,

    And yet the reigning NHL GM OF THE YEAR paid 2pcs 2nd round draft picks for a concrete pylon with skid plates named Douglas Murray.

    I render your opinion Moo.

    Its like a cow opinion.

    It doesn’t matter.

    Its moo.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ifdqEmlx-I

  19. gvblackhawk says:

    art vandelay:
    Nobody on that list past Cryin’ Ryan is worth a bag of pucks. Contenders don’t tend to load up on AHL-level talent,

    More posts please Art! You are simultaneously angry and funny. It’s a refreshing change from some of the other regulars.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Of note:

    When asked if he’d like a prospect further along than a pick, MacT said something like: “well, that would be the ideal, but those kinds of players don’t get traded very often”

    So, I think today he was more acknowledge market realities than his plan of attack or philosophy going in.

    Likely he wants it all!

  21. Ryan says:

    lol at the thread title.

    I had a good friend in undergrad and his two favourite sayings were, “What’s the frequency Kenneth?” and “It’s six o’clock, bring out the cell phones.”

    The first was / thread title was something repeated on some radio station and the second had to do with free calling after six on cell phones in the 90′s.

    Okay, I’m not as old as dirt yet, but I’m pushing forty.

    Every year the trade deadline is like a staring contest waiting to see who flinches first, then the action begins.

    we wait…

  22. sliderule says:

    I wouldn’t get all that excited about it as between 2003-10 the oilers picked 44 players in third round and later and got a grand total of three players with either 200 games or currently on a 2013 roster and played 20 games or more .Thats 6.8 percent folks..

    The first round pick is the jewel and as long as the oilers management keep their eyes on the ball and ignore people like Tencer they will get another impact player.

  23. book¡je says:

    Ryan Smyth would grab a late second I think. Heart and soul guys are valuable at the deadline.

  24. hoser313 says:

    This feels a bit like a card game (i.e. pass the four cards you don’t want to the player on your left…). Would feel bad for these guys if they weren’t making so much money.

    My thoughts:

    - Belov didn’t get killed in the Olympics. I think he’ll net a 3rd.
    - Potter, Grebs, Eager, Jones, Fraser. I think these are the guys you need to ship out (if you can). Don’t think Potter gets you a 4th. They like Fraser so he probably stays.
    - They love Gazdic. They’ll keep Gazdic.
    - I think they keep Joensuu.
    - I hope Fedun gets a shot.
    - I hope Lander is not on Edmonton’s real list of available players.
    - There’s a chance they trade Arco too. Good rookie point totals for a guy being HS’d.

    I’m not sure what the hell you do with Hemsky. Trading Hemsky sure does not help the Oilers’ CURRENT secondary scoring problem. I think you ask the player what he wants. Maybe you can generate some goodwill to use in future contract negotiations.

    Bold would be trading Gagne before his NTC kicks in and giving auditions at 2C to Arco and Lander. If both fail, then you sign a FA 2C in the summer. I doubt this happens.

  25. spoiler says:

    Actually, after reading Hoser’s comment, shouldn’t Arco be on this list? I would think he’s more likely to be moved than Fedun is.

  26. OilClog says:

    If were looking for NHL players why not send one of ours to Washington for Erat?

    I’m disheartened to hear were trading players for picks, hopefully all picks acquired are shipped back out at the draft table for real NHL flesh and bones.

  27. book¡je says:

    Ryan:
    lol at the thread title.

    I had a good friend in undergrad and his two favourite sayings were, “What’s the frequency Kenneth?” and “It’s six o’clock, bring out the cell phones.”

    The first was / thread title was something repeated on some radio station and the second had to do with free calling after six on cell phones in the 90′s.

    Okay, I’m not as old as dirt yet, but I’m pushing forty.

    Every year the trade deadline is like a staring contest waiting to see who flinches first, then the action begins.

    we wait…

    The title is from a major hit song by REM in the mid 1990s inspired by a strange attack on Dan Rather that took place in the 80s.

  28. The Great One says:

    OilClog:
    If were looking for NHL players why not send one of ours to Washington for Erat?

    I’m disheartened to hear were trading players for picks, hopefully all picks acquired are shipped back out at the draft table for real NHL flesh and bones.

    In his last 96 games played, Erat has scored 6 goals.

    He has a cap hit of $4.5M for another season.

    What do you find attractive about that?

  29. TheOtherJohn says:

    Unless mistaken Douglas Murray got moved a week before last years trade deadline for a 2nd and conditional 2nd. The Penguins had to go 2 rounds in playoffs for SJS to get that 2nd -2nd. Do not think trades at the deadline were quite that rich.I.e. Murray trade was outlier for done like dinner D man. Do not think any of the D men on LT’s list are as good as D Murray (who was/is done) and there are AHler’s on LT’s list

    Could we have Doug Wilson trade the Oilers poo poo platter of players for us to maximize the return (Wilson got a 2nd, a 3rd and conditional 2nd for R Klowe)

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=663625

  30. Ryan says:

    book¡je: The title is from a major hit song by REM in the mid 1990s inspired by a strange attack on Dan Rather that took place in the 80s.

    oh lol. I swear that used to run an ad, “What is the frequency, Kenneth?” answer, “92.5″ back in the day, lol

  31. OilClog says:

    The Great One: In his last 96 games played, Erat has scored 6 goals.

    He has a cap hit of $4.5M for another season.

    What do you find attractive about that?

    I don’t.

    But he’s an NHL player regardless of contract. Stat total suffers from outside interference, could he turn it around? Maybe. Rest assured Washington will be eating salary in moving Erat.

  32. cabbiesmacker says:

    OilClog: I don’t.

    But he’s an NHL player regardless of contract. Stat total suffers from outside interference, could he turn it around? Maybe. Rest assured Washington will be eating salary in moving Erat.

    The only reason people even think of Erat as an NHL player anymore is “because” he has an NHL contract.

    After that it’s hmmmm. Guys trash.

  33. theres oil in virginia says:

    book¡je: The title is from a major hit song by REM in the mid 1990s inspired by a strange attack on Dan Rather that took place in the 80s.

    Strange indeed!

  34. book¡je says:

    Ryan: oh lol.I swear that used to run an ad, “What is the frequency, Kenneth?”answer, “92.5″ back in the day, lol

    Actually, it might have. I was reading a bit more and it had become a catch phrase for a while.

  35. The Great One says:

    OilClog: I don’t.

    But he’s an NHL player regardless of contract. Stat total suffers from outside interference, could he turn it around? Maybe. Rest assured Washington will be eating salary in moving Erat.

    Well, I expect you’ll be able to pick up Erat for a wad of chewing gum in the offseason.

    Washington has a compliance buyout left and I have little doubt who they’ll spend it on.

  36. The Great One says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Speaking of strange…I just ran across this map of the most popular bands in every U.S. state.

    Take a look at New England…REM, the Dead, Nirvana, Rush and NEIL YOUNG!

    http://timenewsfeed.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/distinctive_artist_map1.png

  37. fifthcartel says:

    Anyone know if there’s somebody at the Q&A with MacT that will be tweeting it?

  38. Lois Lowe says:

    The Great One,

    Oh DSF, selectively leaving The Greatful Dead and Phish out of the New England Bands metric, never change. Please, never change.

  39. sliderule says:

    sliderule:
    I wouldn’t get all that excited about it as between 2003-10 the oilers picked 44 players in third round and later and got a grand total of three playerswith either 200 games or currently on a 2013 roster and played 20 games or more .Thats 6.8 percent folks..

    The first round pick is the jeweland as long as the oilers management keep their eyes on the ball and ignore people like Tencer they will get another impact player.

    Actually it worse than that as I did this analysis a while ago and thought Omark would stick .

    That’s 2/44 which is just under 5 percent..

    This is really bad drafting when the nhl average is over 10 percent.

    So don’t worry whether the reward is a third or sixth rounder they will just piss it away.

  40. mumbai max says:

    Great list. I think you could move NShultz and Smyth up a round. Some at the bottom (Eager) are highly unlikely to be picked up by anyone.

    I am torn between leaving Klef, Fedun, Horak and Lander in the minors for seasoning, and to experience ‘success’ or bring them up and see what they can do. In the end, I think the Oil needs to do the latter. We NEED to know before training camp next year if these guys are viable NHL options. Using the first 20 games of next year to find out will jeopardize the whole season.

    I am also firmly in the camp of moving Gags now, putting Arco in his spot for the last 20 games. The last and final audition. The result informs a sign/trade/release decision in the summer.

    These moves combined give MacT all the data he needs to make summer moves.

  41. The Great One says:

    Lois Lowe:
    The Great One,

    Oh DSF, selectively leaving The Greatful Dead and Phish out of the New England Bands metric, never change. Please, never change.

    Go back and read carefully and you’ll see the Dead were mentioned.

  42. mumbai max says:

    I agree with Sliderule about the value of picks after the 2nd round. That has been established here. The chance of 3rd round and later picks playing 200 games drops into the single digits. Of course, the way to overcome low odds, is lots of picks. If you have 5 picks in the middle rounds, you are reasonably likely to come up with an NHL player. If you have no picks your odds drop considerably :-)

  43. theres oil in virginia says:

    The Great One:
    theres oil in virginia,

    Speaking of strange…I just ran across this map of the most popular bands in every U.S. state.

    Take a look at New England…REM, the Dead, Nirvana, Rush and NEIL YOUNG!

    http://timenewsfeed.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/distinctive_artist_map1.png

    I guess they like their “Southern Man” up there in Massachusetts!

  44. Lowetide says:

    You could move that music map north and it would hold true. Alberta loves pretty much all of what Montana and N Dakota then south offer up

  45. bendelson says:

    Lois Lowe:
    The Great One,

    Oh DSF, selectively leaving The Greatful Dead and Phish out of the New England Bands metric, never change. Please, never change.

    Not to nit pick Lois but you spelled Fish wrong.

  46. The Great One says:

    mumbai max:
    I agree with Sliderule about the value of picks after the 2nd round. That has been established here. The chance of 3rd round and later picks playing 200 games drops into the single digits. Of course, the way to overcome low odds, is lots of picks. If you have 5 picks in the middle rounds, you are reasonably likely to come up with an NHL player. If you have no picks your odds drop considerably

    The dice have no memory.

    5 picks in the middle rounds don’t give you any more chance of finding a player than 1 pick.

  47. The Great One says:

    Ryan Miller with 2 assists tonight…trade value skyrocketing :)

  48. book¡je says:

    The Great One: The dice have no memory.

    5 picks in the middle rounds don’t give you any more chance of finding a player than 1 pick.

    Uhm, I’m pretty sure they give you 5 times the chance.

  49. The Great One says:

    fifthcartel:
    Anyone know if there’s somebody at the Q&A with MacT that will be tweeting it?

    Retweeted by mc79hockey

    Mitch ‏@MitchLiddell 3m
    Eakins basically just said the players hate him…

  50. The Great One says:

    book¡je: Uhm, I’m pretty sure they give you 5 times the chance.

    Are you sure?

    Do you think having 5 players with a 10% chance of becoming an NHL player adds up to a 50% chance of finding an NHL player?

  51. jp says:

    The Great One: Are you sure?

    Do you think having 5 players with a 10% chance of becoming an NHL player adds up to a 50% chance of finding an NHL player?

    It does.

    MacT didn’t go to school for nuthin’.

  52. The Great One says:

    Retweeted by mc79hockey
    Mitch ‏@MitchLiddell 6m

    @mc79hockey season seat holder event. He’s giving a speech”I came in, and there was conflict. It’s been a process but they’ve bought in now”

  53. The Great One says:

    Retweeted by mc79hockey
    Mitch ‏@MitchLiddell 4m

    @mc79hockey also something about how there were several voices in charge at first, now everyone knows who’s in charge (him I bet)

  54. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    jp,

    10 gives 100%!!!

    (Actually 65% but that 65% includes some cases where you get more than one)

  55. The Great One says:

    Retweeted by mc79hockey
    Mitch ‏@MitchLiddell 10m

    Is Craig MacTavish saying “the 2007 cup run” on purpose? “The King is dead, long live the King”

  56. The Great One says:

    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey 5m

    God, with the way the Oilers are talking about the deadline, it sounds like it’s going to be a slaughter.

  57. Lowetide says:

    If the Oilers trade a bunch of free agents, it’s fine by me. The only ones I want are Hemsky and Smyth.

  58. The Great One says:

    Lowetide:
    If the Oilers trade a bunch of free agents, it’s fine by me. The only ones I want are Hemsky and Smyth.

    I’d wager Hemsky will be the first one out of town.

  59. Marcus Oilerius says:

    I was going to say “It looks like these picks mean a continuation of the rebuild”, but perhaps MC79 expressed it with the emotion I was trying to ignore.

    The Great One:
    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey5m

    God, with the way the Oilers are talking about the deadline, it sounds like it’s going to be a slaughter.

  60. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    If the Oilers trade a bunch of free agents, it’s fine by me. The only ones I want are Hemsky and Smyth.

    Agreed. N. Schultz and Fraser, as examples, have very little game value to this team right now. Exchanging their services for even a 5% chance at an NHL player five years from now is appropriate asset management.

  61. VanOil says:

    I Boldly predict very little will happen between now and the deadline.

    I vote N Schultz likely leaves for a middling pick and Potter possibly leaves for late round pick. Other than that its bupkis until the summer.

    My current bid for Kulikov still sits a Fedun + 2015 1st round pick. McDavid lottery be damned 8 seasons of sucitude is enough.

  62. The Great One says:

    Retweeted by mc79hockey
    Mitch ‏@MitchLiddell 4m

    “We started scraping the mickey bottles off the land behind the baccarat casino” – Laforge haha

  63. The Great One says:

    Retweeted by mc79hockey
    Mitch ‏@MitchLiddell 1m

    “[Corsi] is definitely something that we look at” “the players don’t actually understand it “- Eakins

  64. RexLibris says:

    Here’s a thought. The Rangers want to be rid of Callahan in exchange for a top nine forward who can help them in the playoffs.

    What if Burke were to trade Cammalleri for a signed Callahan? There are details that could be added to make it worth Sather’s time, such as permission to speak to Cammalleri’s agent about an extension with conditional picks added on in case either party decides to walk at the end of the season.

    Provided Burke doesn’t get a better offer on Cammalleri, it would be something worth exploring for the Flames.

    Suspect it would never happen, but moves like that would make trade deadlines interesting again rather than the usual player x for draft picks.

  65. Numenius says:

    We all know Eklund usually needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but he said something today that I’d put a lot of money on:

    re: Nashville possibly trading with Edmonton
    “They ARE NEVER NEVER trading Shea Weber. NEVER.”

    Oilogosphere, please take note.

  66. The Great One says:

    Retweeted by Saymyname PatMcLean
    Cameron Thomson ‏@ThomsonCam 11m

    Laforge. Nobody trashes Edmonton as often or thoroughly as the Oilers do. All the while with their hands out begging.

  67. G Money says:

    The Great One,

    Basic lesson in probability:

    If a mid-round pick has a 10% chance of being an NHL player and you have a single pick, then the likelihood that you leave the draft with an NHL player is 10%, and the probability that you leave without an actual player is 90%.

    With me so far?

    If you have five picks, the probability that you leave the draft without even a single NHL player is .9^5 i.e. all five of your picks have to fail. This is about 59%.

    Or to put it another way, if you have five picks, the probability that you leave the draft without an NHL player is 59%, and the odds that you leave with at least one NHL player (you could of course have more than one) is 41%.

    Not great odds, but last time I checked, a 41% chance of something good happening is better than a 10% chance of something good happening.

  68. knighttown says:

    We’ve recently had an unprecedented run of parity in the NHL that led to the assumption that it would always be a sellers market at the deadline but I expect this to change this season. There are some absolutely dominant teams in the NHL this year and only 9 have a fowl differential in positive double digits. Teams like Vancouver have publicly said not to expect them to mortgage the future for a run this year. You think someone like Minnesota will be banking on being a Cup contender or hell, even winning one round?

    I guess it’s possible those crazy-good west teams might get in a bit of a retooling battle but teams like Chicago and St. Louis are so good and so deep I’m not sure anyone on this list even could take a regular role. Those teams are rolling and I expect they won’t do much.

    The East is more wide open and any of 8 or 9 teams might feel their a player or two away from winning a few rounds. That’s the best hope for a better market.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Numenius:
    We all know Eklund usually needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but he said something today that I’d put a lot of money on:

    re: Nashville possibly trading with Edmonton
    “They ARE NEVER NEVER trading Shea Weber. NEVER.”

    Oilogosphere, please take note.

    Gretzky got traded. Weber isn’t Gretzky.

  70. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    On 660AM today (I live in Calgary so get lots of unwanted Flames news), Cami was interviewed and stated that he had an offer from Burke that he and his agent were mulling over. So not a given that he’s on his way out of town.

    I found that very interesting as it is both against the rumour mill and also against “type” for Burke.

  71. The Great One says:

    G Money:
    The Great One,

    Basic lesson in probability:

    If a mid-round pick has a 10% chance of being an NHL player and you have a single pick, then the likelihood that you leave the draft with an NHL player is 10%, and the probability that you leave without an actual player is 90%.

    With me so far?

    If you have five picks, the probability that you leave the draft without evena single NHL player is .9^5 i.e. all five of your picks have to fail.This is about 59%.

    Or to put it another way, if you have five picks, the probability that you leave the draft without an NHL player is 59%, and the odds that you leave with at least one NHL player (you could of course have more than one) is 41%.

    Not great odds, but last time I checked, a 41% chance of something good happening is better than a 10% chance of something good happening.

    Now, tell me how many actual NHL players you have to trade to get that 41% chance of finding an NHL player with 5 middle round picks.

    If the answer is more than 41% of 1…you lose.

  72. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: Gretzky got traded. Weber isn’t Gretzky.

    Gretzky got sold. But otherwise valid point.

  73. VanOil says:

    The Great One: Now, tell me how many actual NHL players you have to trade to get that 41% chance of finding an NHL player with 5 middle round picks.

    If the answer is more than 41% of 1…you lose.

    Is an NHL player on an expiring contract worth 100% of a NHL player?

  74. Younger Oil says:

    Would it be too soon/too insensitive to say that Polie would have to be hit over the head with something to be crazy enough to trade Weber?

    In all seriousness though, that was a really unfortunate injury, I hope he recovers.

  75. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    On 660AM today (I live in Calgary so get lots of unwanted Flames news), Cami was interviewed and stated that he had an offer from Burke that he and his agent were mulling over.So not a given that he’s on his way out of town.

    I found that very interesting as it is both against the rumour mill and also against “type” for Burke.

    I had offered up this opinion on FN the other day, saying a one year extension might be a service to both parties. Cammalleri has had a rough year and with the cap being so low his contract isn’t as easy to absorb for many teams. At the same time, the Flames could sell him off in a deadline that doesn’t feature Vanek, Moulson and Hemsky, to name a few, in a draft year expected to be of greater depth than 2014.

    It wouldn’t be a bad idea, and it only delays free agency for Cammalleri by one season, he is still young and the amount of cap space likely to be available for signing a big contract may be higher next summer than this year.

    I don’t know that this is necessarily against Burke’s history. He has shown a tendency to defer to the player’s wishes in the past (unofficial trade freezes, letting Selanne and Niedermeyer mull over re-signing or retirement in the off-season when it handcuffed his team, etc). Giving Cammalleri a chance to stay on also goes against the veteran sell-off that the Flames have sworn up down and sideways they were going to try and avoid.

  76. RexLibris says:

    The Great One: Now, tell me how many actual NHL players you have to trade to get that 41% chance of finding an NHL player with 5 middle round picks.

    If the answer is more than 41% of 1…you lose.

    Depends. Is Hakan Andersson running my scouting board?

  77. book¡je says:

    The Great One: Are you sure?

    Do you think having 5 players with a 10% chance of becoming an NHL player adds up to a 50% chance of finding an NHL player?

    No, it gives you five 10% chances.

  78. jp says:

    The Great One: Now, tell me how many actual NHL players you have to trade to get that 41% chance of finding an NHL player with 5 middle round picks.

    If the answer is more than 41% of 1…you lose.

    Also, according to this logic pending UFA Ryan Jones is worth more to the Oilers than a 2nd round pick. Ditto Martin Erat I suppose. Agreed?

  79. RexLibris says:

    I don’t think it is impossible for Poile to trade Weber. What he needs to do though is determine his peak value and move him five minutes before that begins to decline, the way Wilson did with Heatley and Setoguchi in San Jose.

    Poile hasn’t always been the best at horse trading in the NHL, and ownership has a heady stake in Weber both as a player and marketing asset.

    He’ll move eventually and when he does it will likely be a high price based largely on things he has done, perhaps more so than what he may yet do.

    The Oilers need to find a Weber, not the Weber.

  80. saddleblazer says:

    The Great One: Now, tell me how many actual NHL players you have to trade to get that 41% chance of finding an NHL player with 5 middle round picks.

    If the answer is more than 41% of 1…you lose.

    DSF – you advertised having no understanding of statistics, then you were (understandably) called out on it (quite gently I may add). This non-sequitur you offered doesn’t change anything.

  81. book¡je says:

    G Money,

    Thanks, much better explanation!

  82. book¡je says:

    Ack – he’s trolling us. Stop responding. He gets his kicks from this. I can’t believe I responded!

  83. The Great One says:

    RexLibris: Depends. Is Hakan Andersson running my scouting board?

    Well that’s just not fair. :)

    Andersson’s first pick as a Red Wing scout came in 1994.

    The Wings gave him total control over who should be picked in the 10th round.

    The best he could come up with was Tomas Holmstrom.

    “Besides Holmström, Franzén, Datsyuk, Ericsson, and Zetterberg, Andersson has also been responsible for the selection by the Red Wings of Niklas Kronwall, Jiří Hudler, and Valtteri Filppula, among others.

    In 2008, the Red Wings’ top five post-season scorers (Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzén, Kronwall, and Hudler) had all been scouted and recommended to the team by Andersson.

    In December 2008 Andersson’s scouting ability was recognized by The Hockey News which ranked him No. 65 on its list of 100 People of Power and Influence.

  84. Lowetide says:

    TGO: Sure, but how many fish did he catch?

  85. The Great One says:

    jp: Also, according to this logic pending UFA Ryan Jones is worth more to the Oilers than a 2nd round pick. Ditto Martin Erat I suppose. Agreed?

    If we use 5 years as a means of assessing a draft, and look at the 2008 draft as a reference, only 6 players selected in the 2nd round have played more than 100 games in the NHL.

    3 in the 3rd round.

    3 in the 4th round.

    4 in the 5th round

    4 in the 6th round

    1 in the 7th round

    I guess if you have a head scout and management team with a great track record of finding actual NHL players later in the draft (like Detroit’s Andersson) then you would be wise to stock up on later round picks.

    Otherwise, you are much more likely to end up with a Mitch Wahl than you are a Jason Demers.

    Russian Roulette.

  86. The Great One says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s Phish, right?

  87. Numenius says:

    Lowetide: Gretzky got traded. Weber isn’t Gretzky.

    I don’t follow you on this one, LT.

    Consider:

    - Since Benjamin Franklin (or insert name here) was struck by lightning, it could happen that Shea Weber will be struck by lightning.

    - Since Aunt Minnie won $30 million in the lottery, it could happen that Shea Weber will win $30 million in the lottery.

    The reasoning is technically valid, but practically speaking, it’s accurate and informative to say that the latter will “NEVER” happen. Unusual circumstances make for bad prognostications.

    Given the context, It’s also reasonable to understand the “NEVER” with certain qualifications: e.g. It applies particularly to the present time and likely Weber’s prime years (They’d no doubt be open to trading Weber eventually, like Iginla, just not when he’s at his best) and with a qualification that there are no unusual circumstances (e.g. The Penguins offering Crosby and Malkin or Nashville’s finances go completely down the drain).

  88. The Great One says:

    jp: Also, according to this logic pending UFA Ryan Jones is worth more to the Oilers than a 2nd round pick. Ditto Martin Erat I suppose. Agreed?

    Interesting question.

    But you have to start with a decision on whether or not Ryan Jones is an actual NHL player.

    He was discarded by Nashville and picked up on waivers by the worst team in the league,

    If you put him on waivers in the morning, would anyone claim him?

    I think the answer is likely no, therefore he is NOT an NHL player.

    However, let’s say Hemsky, an actual NHL player by any definition, gets traded for a 2nd round pick and and a 4th round pick, what are the chances the Oilers end up with any kind of an NHL player in return.

    Exceedingly small odds I would say.

    Now, the fact that he is on an expiring contract complicates things but that is an entirely different issue that speaks more to personnel mismanagement than it does draft probabilities.

  89. VanOil says:

    Numenius,

    Accepting LTs heretical point that Gretzky was traded not sold is sinful. Say 10 hail Messier’s, 1 lord Kurri and carry on. The Gords will forgive you.

  90. G Money says:

    The Great One,

    Your original quote talked nothing of player management or trades, only of drafting and probabilities. Specifically, you said exactly these words:

    The dice have no memory.

    5 picks in the middle rounds don’t give you any more chance of finding a player than 1 pick.

    On the latter point you have been conclusively and irretrievably demonstrated to be flat out wrong. The most delicious part is that you even had the arrogance to add “The dice have no memory”, implying that you actually have a grasp of basic probability theory. That too proved to be utterly wrong.

    The rest of your posts on the topic are just noise intended to try and distract from just how wrong (not to mention stupid) a statement such as “5 picks … don’t give you any more chance of finding a player than 1 pick.” really is.

    BTW, the stupidity and wrongness of the statement hold true whether it is Andersson or Prendergast making the picks.

  91. RexLibris says:

    The Great One,

    I did a review of the Red Wings for ON a few years back looking at Andersson and the organization as a whole.

    The man has a slightly higher than league average success rate, around 21% if I recall correctly (league average is roughly 18%). What really sets him apart is that when he hits on a player it isn’t your average joe, but often an impact player or high-end complimentary player.

    He is, of course, aided by patient management and an owner with notoriously deep pockets that has allowed his talent to be both properly developed, well compensated, and errors surreptitiously covered over by free-agency prior to the salary cap.

    Interestingly enough, Detroit doesn’t boast the highest success rate of finding NHL player through the draft. They are around average to slightly above average.

  92. Racki says:

    On the list in the main post, I’d hang on to Belov, Bryzgalov, Fedun, Gazdic still. The rest can go.

    Belov, because we still haven’t seen his best, I don’t think. First year in North America, and on top of that he’s dealing with ridonkulous new systems, along with everyone else… an adjustment period should be expected.

    Bryzgalov, because I think Bryzy + Scrivens is a good enough tandem if you assemble an NHL D.

    Fedun, just cause i think there’s a reliable d-man in there. I’m not sure if people are just unimpressed by his lack of flair, or what, exactly, but I think he’s kind of a well rounded Petry-lite-esque D-man. He’s also been good in OKC this year (although at age 25, he should probably be).

    Gazdic because he fits my need to see faces punched, and he isn’t a disaster, by eye, when on the ice, unlike most players of his ilk. He also doesn’t need to play every game, or more than a half dozen to 10 minutes each night. Also, it would be nice to have him on the team just to anger people that hate face punchers.

  93. RexLibris says:

    The Great One: Interesting question.

    But you have to start with a decision on whether or not Ryan Jones is an actual NHL player.

    He was discarded by Nashville and picked up on waivers by the worst team in the league,

    If you put him on waivers in the morning, would anyone claim him?

    I think the answer is likely no, therefore he is NOT an NHL player.

    However, let’s say Hemsky, an actual NHL player by any definition, gets traded for a 2nd round pick and and a 4th round pick, what are the chances the Oilers end up with any kind of an NHL player in return.

    Exceedingly small odds I would say.

    Now, the fact that he is on an expiring contract complicates things but that is an entirely different issue that speaks more to personnel mismanagement than it does draft probabilities.

    These are all fair points, but something in your statement reminds me of economic theory – it does not allow room for human irrationality. There is no way on this earth that Doug Murray is worth two 2nd round picks, and yet…

    Ryan Jones may not be worth more than a 5th or 6th round pick at the deadline in the same way that a 500 sq ft one bedroom knockdown isn’t worth more than the land it sits on, but if that land is well located, or becomes otherwise desirable to a number of individuals then the price goes up.

    I’m not saying that Jones will necessarily fetch more than a 5th round pick, or even anything for that matter, but until the deadline passes we cannot summarily determine a player asset to be entirely worthless.

  94. Racki says:

    Numenius:
    - Since Aunt Minnie won $30 million in the lottery, it could happen that Shea Weber will win $30 million in the lottery.

    Whoa.. wait… Aunt Minnie won the lottery?!?!?! That b—- has been holding out on me!!!

  95. Hammers says:

    LT maybe McT keeps half the cost on say Hemsky & N.Schultz . From some teams that may get either a 1st and or 2nd & 3rd for Hemmer and move Nick up a slot . My point is $$$$$ are worth something . Look at Vancouver , in trouble and virtually no cap space or Detroit injuries and probably want to keep tradition of playoffs going . Sometimes there can be other ways to skin a cat and this year $$$ is one .

  96. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I feel like I’ve got a mild case of “Steve Smith” after reading through the thread.

    Butter unfortunate yammering.

    I still think we should keep an eye on Bill Scott. The farm may prove interesting if the prospects leap town and Scott has to look around for another Brett Clark or Cheechoo.

  97. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hammers:
    LT maybe McT keeps half the cost on say Hemsky & N.Schultz . From some teams that may get either a 1st and or 2nd & 3rd for Hemmer and move Nick up a slot . My point is$$$$$ are worth something . Look at Vancouver , in trouble and virtually no cap space or Detroit injuries and probably want to keep tradition of playoffs going . Sometimes there can be other ways to skin a cat and this year $$$ is one .

    I think it is assured that MacT will eat contract dollars on expiring deals in order to get a better return.

    He talked about it with Stauffer today.

    He can take on half or 2 more contracts.

  98. The Great One says:

    RexLibris: These are all fair points, but something in your statement reminds me of economic theory – it does not allow room for human irrationality. There is no way on this earth that Doug Murray is worth two 2nd round picks, and yet…

    Ryan Jones may not be worth more than a 5th or 6th round pick at the deadline in the same way that a 500 sq ft one bedroom knockdown isn’t worth more than the land it sits on, but if that land is well located, or becomes otherwise desirable to a number of individuals then the price goes up.

    I’m not saying that Jones will necessarily fetch more than a 5th round pick, or even anything for that matter, but until the deadline passes we cannot summarily determine a player asset to be entirely worthless.

    Absolutely irrationality plays a role but you can’t count on it.

  99. Racki says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    jp,

    10 gives 100%!!!

    (Actually 65% but that 65% includes some cases where you get more than one)

    Gold star for the guy that understands probability :D

  100. The Great One says:

    RexLibris:
    The Great One,

    I did a review of the Red Wings for ON a few years back looking at Andersson and the organization as a whole.

    The man has a slightly higher than league average success rate, around 21% if I recall correctly (league average is roughly 18%). What really sets him apart is that when he hits on a player it isn’t your average joe, but often an impact player or high-end complimentary player.

    He is, of course, aided by patient management and an owner with notoriously deep pockets that has allowed his talent to be both properly developed, well compensated, and errors surreptitiously covered over by free-agency prior to the salary cap.

    Interestingly enough, Detroit doesn’t boast the highest success rate of finding NHL player through the draft. They are around average to slightly above average.

    Just curious.

    If Andersson is above average at 21%, are there others who exceeded that number and by how much.?

  101. DeadmanWaking says:

    I have the following Stylish script on my Firefox to make a couple of voluble vocalisers a little easier to skip when I’m skimming quickly. While it’s pretty easy to disappear people entirely I don’t go that far because I don’t believe in that kind of thing.

    I’m also pretty quick to unsquish their heads as recent trends warrant and even through I squish his head, I still I like Hunter well enough–mainly his first post on any given thread–once forewarned and slightly muted.

    After installing Stylish, I have a Stylish icon on my add-on bar: a large white S with a coloured background. When I left-click this a menu pops up with “write new style”. Go there, then pick “blank style” then paste in what’s below, after the hyphens.

    Type any name you wish in the name field (it’s only for your benefit), click save and it’s good to go.

    I finally had to master Stylish because there are many web sites now that don’t allow me to enlarge the fonts without spilling over the sides of my portrait mode screen. I use Stylish to aggressive reformat the offending content.

    “Inspect element” in the Firefox debugger is an amazing tool for digging out the necessary selectors. The sites that play nice under the hood take all of sixty seconds to reskin (prominent div elements with id=rightcolumn-pagejunk). The sites that make it difficult take me about ten minutes, if I approach it in the same way as when I used to try to solve the five-star Sudoku in ten minutes or less (at this pace I had no time to double check anything, so half my puzzles ended in major blunder, which was most of the fun).

    —-

    @namespace url(http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml);

    @-moz-document domain(“lowetide.ca”) {

    li.comment-author-the-great-one cite.author_name:after,
    li.comment-author-hunter1909 cite.author_name:after {
    color: #883333 !important;
    content: ” (troll)”;
    text-transform: none;
    }

    li.comment-author-hunter1909 p,
    li.comment-author-the-great-one p {
    font-size: 80% !important;
    }

    /* END */ }

  102. The Great One says:

    G Money,

    In the last 10 NHL drafts, the Oilers have selected 38 players in rounds 2 though 4.

    The number of players selected in those rounds, who have played 100 games is 3.

    Of those 3, 2 of them, Liam Reddox and Theo Peckham are not NHL players.

    While there is still time for players from the most recent 3-4 drafts to make their mark, chances are most won’t.

    The last time the Oilers actually had relative success (and I mean relative) was the 2003 draft, perhaps the deepest in history, when they selected Pouliot (AHL), McDonald (AHL), Jacques (AHL), Stortini (AHL) and Brodziak in one draft.

    Lots of bullets, only 1 player.

  103. art vandelay says:

    Woodguy,

    89-63-4
    6/49
    7-11
    Corgis 5×5 against the Vollhammer zone toughs
    Omaha

  104. gvblackhawk says:

    DeadmanWaking:
    I have the following Stylish script on my Firefox to make a couple of voluble vocalisers a little easier to skip when I’m skimming quickly.While it’s pretty easy to disappear people entirely I don’t go that far because I don’t believe in that kind of thing.

    I’m also pretty quick to unsquish their heads as recent trends warrant and even through I squish his head, I still I like Hunter well enough–mainly his first post on any given thread–once forewarned and slightly muted.

    After installing Stylish, I have a Stylish icon on my add-on bar: a large white S with a coloured background.When I left-click this a menu pops up with “write new style”. Go there, then pick “blank style” then paste in what’s below, after the hyphens.

    Type any name you wish in the name field (it’s only for your benefit), click save and it’s good to go.

    I finally had to master Stylish because there are many web sites now that don’t allow me to enlarge the fonts without spilling over the sides of my portrait mode screen.I use Stylish to aggressive reformat the offending content.

    “Inspect element” in the Firefox debugger is an amazing tool for digging out the necessary selectors.The sites that play nice under the hood take all of sixty seconds to reskin (prominent div elements with id=rightcolumn-pagejunk).The sites that make it difficult take me about ten minutes, if I approach it in the same way as when I used to try to solve the five-star Sudoku in ten minutes or less (at this pace I had no time to double check anything, so half my puzzles ended in major blunder, which was most of the fun).

    —-

    @namespace url(http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml);

    @-moz-document domain(“lowetide.ca”) {

    li.comment-author-the-great-one cite.author_name:after,
    li.comment-author-hunter1909 cite.author_name:after { color: #883333 !important; content: ” (troll)”; text-transform: none;
    }

    li.comment-author-hunter1909 p,
    li.comment-author-the-great-one p { font-size: 80% !important;
    }

    /* END */ }

    Awesome. I wish I had your computer chops. And thanks for the LOL…that last bit is hilarious!

  105. BONVIE says:

    Woodguy,

    Exactly wood guy for those that think all of our players on that list that are only depth players have no value then they either have very short memories or haven’t watched the last 5 trade deadlines. I believe we have several players on that list that could net us 3rd and even 2nd round picks. As far as Hemsky I could see a bidding war with the injuries on playoff teams who need extra offence.

    Tambelina gave up i believe a 4th rounder and a very high one at that for a very old UFA that wasn’t even close to NHL calibre. The weirdest part is as I Recall the Oilers were not even in a position last year to make a playoff run.(most 29th place teams dont view themselves as a contender but then Steve did have his head up his ass each trade deadline and remarkably seemed to be confused about wether he should be accumulating depth players like Brown and Smithson or moving his own depth players for valuable picks)

    The Oilers are one of only about 5 teams this year that are clear sellers, so the prices for those third and fourth pair Defenseman may actually be even higher this deadline.

    I am very excited to see what happens this deadline, i just hope McT understands how this thing works. I

  106. auzy11 says:

    Bergivin is a complete failure,he is going to ruin that team as we know Markov wont sign that deal and any team that has the funds and does not offer PK an offer sheet,is crazy,,i think PK is pissed when Bergivin low balled him,,,go get him oil instant top four with unreal shot and is a gamer,,if you dont someone else will..Bergivin should be offering PK right now but i dont think he has brains,,,,unreal

  107. auzy11 says:

    And then bergivin gives Briere a three yr deal a guy whos done,,must be the token frenchman there,,,he will ruin that team other teams gotta jump on this guys idiocy and i hope its the oilers

  108. auzy11 says:

    Dump some of these useless D men clear some space an give PK an offer sheet for 8 mill over 7 years,,,,instant team asap

  109. auzy11 says:

    to get those picks back your going to have to give a top six forward and hopefully get someone who is decent with it

  110. auzy11 says:

    THIS REBUILD HAS TO STOP AND GET A TEAM THAT DOES NOT EMBARRESS THE CITY AND THE PROVINCE THAT PUMPS OUT NHL PLAYERS LIKE THERE POPCORN,,,COME ON MCT EDMONTON AND AREA ALONE ARE A HOTBED FOR PLAYERS AND WE ARE STUCK WITH THIS SHIT,,,ITS TIME TO GET BOLD YOU ASSHOLE

  111. Woodguy says:

    art vandelay:
    Woodguy,

    89-63-4
    6/49
    7-11
    Corgis 5×5 against the Vollhammer zone toughs
    Omaha

    But what’s their OZ% and FencloseRoad?

  112. Ducey says:

    auzy11,

    Does your head feel squished?

  113. Pouzar says:

    Jezzuz…we need a trade. My head hurts.

  114. sliderule says:

    If you could somehow get second round picks for Schultz and Hemsky now you are talking.

    The oilers have had close to 30 percent of second rounders turn out .

    The Ducks and kings have converted their second rounders at around 40 percent.If oil could get to that level of drafting this team would get better before I kick off.

  115. Professor Q says:

    I don’t think Miller would want to go to Edmonton anyways, even if he does want to get out of Buffalo. Wanting to leave because they are a “30th place team” doesn’t bode well for a reason to go to Edmonton.

  116. Pouzar says:

    I set 3.5 as the Over/Under for number of trades.

    I am comfortable with Under now.

    Anyone else wanna go on record? :)

  117. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Professor Q:
    I don’t think Miller would want to go to Edmonton anyways, even if he does want to get out of Buffalo. Wanting to leave because they are a “30th place team” doesn’t bode well for a reason to go to Edmonton.

    Not only that:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=444666

    but he probably wants to go to California, or so the MSM keeps telling me.

  118. Bob Arctor says:

    Ducey:
    auzy11,

    Does your head feel squished?

    http://tinyurl.com/ku4d9t3

    Will Stylish work on the mobile version of firefox?

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