DUCKS AT OILERS, G74 13-14

In a season where nothing rhymes, it’s important for the organization to gather up as many positive arrows as possible. The season has been a disaster, but there have been some good things for the organization, players making progress. Here’s my list:

  • Taylor Hall is having a career season (66, 25-42-67) and has been healthy.
  • Jordan Eberle is still posting good boxcar numbers (71, 23-32-55) despite a trying season.
  • David Perron (69, 26-25-51) was MacT’s best move last summer and paid dividends in several areas.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should deliver his best boxcars (71, 16-32-48) despite enduring a difficult year.
  • Boyd Gordon (67, 8-13-21) was an absolute Godsend, the best free-agent signing in a long time.
  • Martin Marincin (35, 0-3-3) arrived ready. It’s a rare thing.
  • Ben Scrivens (15, 2.83 .922) was a very good mid-season pickup and signing.

It’s important to keep these things in mind as we move into summer. This season has been such a disaster that it’s very easy to throw out the baby with the bath water, but there have been holes filled and progress has been made. The problem came from Edmonton’s dire circumstances that occurred from neglect via management’s inertia. Plenty of work to be done this summer, but there have been good things.

ludwig

The Oklahoma City Barons have signed CJ Ludwig to a contract for next season. The story is here. You can also read it here. Ludwig is an interesting prospect and was clearly a major part of his college team when struck by injury in December. I like this kind of signing, low risk and the player clearly has enough talent to push the next level.

simpson9The NCAA tournament sweet 16 gets underway tonight, with Dillon Simpson and UND playing against powerhouse Wisconsin. UND is the #14 seed, Wisconsin #4, but the one thing we know about college hockey is (like basketball) anything can happen. Chris Peters has a brilliant preview of the entire tournament here.

2011 draftTerry Jones writes an article asking if Oilers Nation is hesitant to jump on the ‘be bad for Ekblad’ bandwagon. I think the problem is twofold:

  • how many times can you get excited about drafting high? It’s become a sick joke, Edmonton drafting first or third or even sixth. The Oilers themselves stopped the draft party idea a few years back (can’t remember when) because it draws attention to a generation of suck.
  • shame. There’s a certain shame Oiler fans wear these days, the team is the brunt of jokes and honestly it’s difficult to mock other teams and get into the general fun of chiding other fanbases. As an Oiler fan since 1972, I can say this period in fandom has been an exercise in humility—perhaps deserved for my generation who had a ‘cock of the walk’ attitude in the 1980s, but certainly undeserved for anyone under 40.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

scarjo7

 A busy Friday, we have some fluidity to the show. 10am TSN 1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. We’ll talk Hall/Eakins, Leafs fail, HNIC/TSN playoff coverage.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. We’ll talk Reinhart v Draisaitl v Ekblad.
  • Jeff Chapman, Copper and Blue. Oilers-Ducks, Selanne, draft, summer improvements.
  • Jill Horbay, FC Edmonton. Eddies are going to have a big season, we’ll talk offense.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter.

 

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362 Responses to "DUCKS AT OILERS, G74 13-14"

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  1. mumbai max says:

    Ok, I know this is slightly off topic, but I am 12 hours ahead so give me a break!

    I was thinking about the perception that Gagner is over payed.

    I wanted to calculate how much a goal is worth on the market.

    I crunched a few numbers using Capgeek and TSN Stats.

    I took the 12 highest paid forwards per team, and computed how many total goals they had scored. This is not perfect because of injuries etc. I also could have taken the top 12 scorers and calculated their salary. Anyway, I think it would have come out roughly the same.

    I randomly chose and calculated 8 teams (tedious). If you throw out the top and the bottom one, the rest are within a 10% range. I would guess the rest of the league would be roughly the same.

    Below are the results. This is what the pay scale is per goal for these teams(forwards).

    L.A. 286,000 per goal

    Edm. 233,000 per goal

    Pitts 229,000 per goal

    Tor 229,000 per goal

    SJ 226,000 per goal

    Chi 224,000 per goal

    Fla 212,000 per goal

    CBJ 192,000 per goal

    Avg. 229,000 per goal

    So, based on the actual market price today, this is the value of goal scorers.

    10 goal scorer = 2.3 m per year

    20 goal scorer = 4.6 per year

    30 goal scorer = 6.9 per year

    40 goal scorer = 9.2 per year

    I think this could be a useful rule of thumb for everyday use.

    It makes Gagner, Hall, and Eberle paid at about the right rate.

    Some players like Thornton or RNH are going to appear overpaid using this metric,

    Anyone want to do points!!??

  2. linkfromhyrule says:

    Is it possible to watch the NCAA games in Canada? I see some regular season games were but it could be interesting to watch if the Oilers game is um…disappointing

  3. fuzzy muppet says:

    It’s incredibly sad that there isn’t any mention about the game in a game-day post.

    These are low, low times

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Is that a one-piece?

    I gather you get it off with a zipper in the back.

  5. justDOit says:

    Have to run to work shortly – is CJ Ludwig the son of *that* Ludwig? Part of me hopes yes…

  6. blackdog says:

    Cock of the walk? Cock of the walk?

    You sir are the cock of nothing.

    Sorry couldn’t resist.

  7. frjohnk says:

    justDOit:
    Have to run to work shortly – is CJ Ludwig the son of *that* Ludwig? Part of me hopes yes…

    Don’t know, but Im not too fond of a 5’10 179lbs D man

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    Heard Ekblad got hurt last evening. Anything serious or we should be concern about?

    I’m still thinking Sabres will draft him

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Scott Cullen ‏@tsnscottcullen 1m
    As TSN is going to be streaming games for the NCAA Hockey Tournament, an entirely unexpected bracket pool has popped up in the office.

  10. Clay says:

    The problem came from Edmonton’s dire circumstances that occurred from neglect via management’s inertia.

    So, remember the movie GOONIES? The kids go up into the attic, and find the treasure map, but it’s in a glass frame. They need to break the glass to get it out, but of course intentionally breaking the glass would be inappropriate. So what do they do? Call over Chunk and hand him the frame. Because they know he’ll have that thing unintentionally broken in twopointfive seconds, and then they can continue on their way.

    I always think of Tambellini as Chunk. KLowe wanted to break the team so he could rebuild through the draft. He couldn’t do it himself, as the boneheaded moves needed would sully his GM “reputation”, so he called Chunk over to hold it for awhile.

    Mission accomplished. Except, now that it’s broken, it’s a lot harder to fix than I think he imagined.

    The team is stuck in the Fratelli’s basement with Sloth screaming in the other room, and there doesn’t appear to be any way out.

  11. Caramel Obvious says:

    mumbai max,

    Hall, Eberle, and Gagner were all RFA’s when they signed their contracts. That means by definition they signed below market deals. If they are providing market value that means they are overpaid.

    To do this kind of analysis you need to break players into at least three groups: ELC, RFA, UFA.

    An UFA will always be overpaid compared to everyone else, while ELCs and RFAs should always be underpaid.

  12. Ducey says:

    flyfish1168:
    Heard Ekblad got hurt last evening. Anything serious or we should be concern about?

    I’m still thinking Sabres will draft him

    Why?

    They are soooo far behind the rest of the league in goals for (just 139 – CHI has 244) you have to think they would want to improve the offense.

  13. Ducey says:

    Oh, and “be bad for Ekblad” and “do your part for Reinhart”.

  14. frjohnk says:

    I think the biggest holes that have been filled are the goaltenders. Before, I used to cringe on each shot, thinking that it may squeak in. Sometimes it felt as if the goalies at the beginning of the year couldn’t stop a loaf of bread being lobbed to them.

    I think the tandem of Scrivens and Fasth are better than average and have kept us in games that we would not have been earlier in the year.

    And you gotta love Scrivens leadership! He might be MacT’s best pickup.

  15. frjohnk says:

    Ducey:
    Oh, and “be bad for Ekblad” and “do your part for Reinhart”.

    How bout ” Get Bent for Bennett”

  16. mumbai max says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    mumbai max,

    Hall, Eberle, and Gagner were all RFA’s when they signed their contracts.That means by definition they signed below market deals.If they are providing market value that means they are overpaid.

    To do this kind of analysis you need to break players into at least three groups:ELC, RFA, UFA.

    An UFA will always be overpaid compared to everyone else, while ELCs and RFAs should always be underpaid.

    The idea of this was to get a snapshot of the average cost of goal scoring. It was not done to analyze anything in accurate detail, but to provide a ‘rule of thumb’. Useful when evaluating signings. You are welcome to go to the next level :-)

  17. Surly says:

    Interesting tweets from the Houston Rockets GM…possibly with some application here in Edmonton:

    Daryl Morey ‏@dmorey 2h
    Not to mention the value of a well run franchise getting multiple top draft picks on rookie scale contracts
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More

    Daryl Morey ‏@dmorey 2h
    However, when well run franchises get the number one asset in the NBA, a top 5 player in the draft on a rookie scale contract, watch out
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More

    Daryl Morey ‏@dmorey 2h
    There is a tight historic correlation between poorly run franchises&top draft picks that generally does not go away once you make a top pick
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More

    Daryl Morey ‏@dmorey 2h
    The studies being published on how long it takes to get back to contention after having a top draft pick all suffer from a fatal flaw

  18. Ducey says:

    One more.

    Wang is looking to sell his majority stake in the NYI.

    I am not sure anyone is going to jump at the chance to buy them, but a sale would likely mean the end of Garth Snow.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=447590

  19. jayzz says:

    Question. Is there a draft/team order for kids coming out of college? Or are they treated like free agents and can sign where they choose ? I’d love to see a write up on the best prospects from college this year as i heard there are some interesting players

  20. mumbai max says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    mumbai max,

    Hall, Eberle, and Gagner were all RFA’s when they signed their contracts.That means by definition they signed below market deals.If they are providing market value that means they are overpaid.

    No RFA has ever signed a below market deal. By definition, what they signed for IS their market value.

  21. linkfromhyrule says:

    Ducey,

    agreed, you have to think they take reinhart, or at the very least draisaitl.

    I am not sure about ekblad I have my doubts with taking a defenseman with such a high pick. Might as well take draisaitl and have the 2C role filled in 2-3 years than possibly have the 1/2D filled in 4-5 years right?

  22. Henry says:

    Ducey:
    One more.

    Wang is looking to sell his majority stake in the NYI.

    I am not sure anyone is going to jump at the chance to buy them, but a sale would likely mean the end of Garth Snow.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=447590

    Ducey,

    Once that team starts playing in Brooklyn they will be worth a lot.

  23. Woodguy says:

    flyfish1168:
    Heard Ekblad got hurt last evening. Anything serious or we should be concern about?

    I’m still thinking Sabres will draft him

    BUF has Ritsolainen (might be better than Ekblad), Pysyk, McCabe and Zadorov as high end D in the pipeline.

    They currently play in BUF under long term contracts: Ehrhoff and Myers

    They really don’t need another D prospect and are much, much, much thinner up front in terms of prospects.

  24. Ducey says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    Ducey,

    agreed, you have to think they take reinhart, or at the very least draisaitl.

    I am not sure about ekblad I have my doubts with taking a defenseman with such a high pick. Might as well take draisaitl and have the 2C role filled in 2-3 years than possibly have the 1/2D filled in 4-5 years right?

    No. Pick BPA. That seems to be Ekblad.

    Bring in Ekblad and between him, Petry, Schultz, Marincin, Klefbom, Nurse, Simpson, Gernat, Musil etc the position is covered for the next decade.

    The Oilers can always trade a D prospect for a 2C.

    Besides, Draisaitl doesn’t look to be ready for at least a year anyway.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Henry: Ducey,

    Once that team starts playing in Brooklyn they will be worth a lot.

    Except value of NHL teams is driven by gate revenue and the Barclay’s Center has a published hockey max capacity of 15,816 but in reality its more like 14,500

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/09/there-are-some-bad-seats-for-hockey-at-barclays.html

  26. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    The Oilers can always trade a D prospect for a 2C.

    Wait a minute….

    I thought we could trade offensive help for D help by drafting BPA?

  27. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: No.Pick BPA.That seems to be Ekblad.

    Bring in Ekblad and between him, Petry, Schultz, Marincin, Klefbom, Nurse, Simpson, Gernat, Musil etc the position is covered for the next decade.

    The Oilers can always trade a D prospect for a 2C.

    Besides, Draisaitl doesn’t look to be ready for at least a year anyway.

    I’m not sure it’s Ekblad. Seems to be a line of thought that says he’s a mature player now, while others have room to grow. Scouts pay close attention to that sort of thing, must have a reason for it.

  28. russ99 says:

    Woodguy,

    One of or both of Ehrhoff and Myers are reportedly on the trade block to get more assets. And they’ll get a lot more back from them than swapping a first pick would.

    I don’t buy the idea that they’d pass up the obvious BPA and a rock on the team in 2-3 years due to what today’s roster looks like. Only the Oilers would do something like that – LOL.

  29. linkfromhyrule says:

    Ducey,

    What is BPA though? I don’t know if you could get everyone to agree one way or the other. I am not sure I’ve heard that Ekblad is consensus top player available. Honestly, taking BPA has not worked for us before, and the difference between ekblad and draisaitl is probably moot. The main difference is one should be able to play in 2-3 years, the other could take 3-5

  30. Ducey says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    Ducey,

    What is BPA though? I don’t know if you could get everyone to agree one way or the other. I am not sure I’ve heard that Ekblad is consensus top player available. Honestly, taking BPA has not worked for us before, and the difference between ekblad and draisaitl is probably moot. The main difference is one should be able to play in 2-3 years, the other could take 3-5

    Ekblad is ahead of Draisaitl in every ranking I have seen and appears to be able to play in the NHL before Leon.

    I think if I was drafting for the 2C position I would take Reinhart anyway

    Leon scares me. He is heavier than most players in the WHL and likely won’t have that advantage in the NHL. He is 6’1″, not 6′ 4″. Not a ton of room to grow.

    Plus he went from 58 pts last year to 105 pts this year. He might be a one hit wonder.

    Reinhart has gone 62, 85, 105 the last three years.

  31. OilClog says:

    I hope they trade the pick.

    I want a NHL player now, not in 3-5yrs.

  32. justDOit says:

    frjohnk: Don’t know, but Im not too fond of a 5’10 179lbs D man

    Well, he doesn’t sound like the son of *that* Ludwig, by stature, but if he can play the game, and knows how to move a puck, this is like finding money in an old pair of pants.

  33. Hammers says:

    BPA in any year is a player that actually plays in the NHL. Some years we get 1 or 2 other years 3-5 of them . The problem has been , does it really help the player ????? Obviously some shouldn’t go back to junior . I can’t prove it but my guess is that forwards have the best chance at jumping straight to the NHL.

  34. Caramel Obvious says:

    mumbai max: No RFA has ever signed a below market deal. By definition, what they signed for IS their market value.

    I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

  35. cahill says:

    CJ Ludwig is Craig’s boy. If he’s anything like his old man it would be a great pickup. In the SBNation article (btw if you are researching college pickups between Chris Peters & Chris Dilks from SBNation there’s alot of good information on college hockey) it mentions that CJ he was a key component on the power play, I don’t remember Craig being the PP specialist.

  36. frjohnk says:

    Ducey: Ekblad is ahead of Draisaitl in every ranking I have seen and appears to be able to play in the NHL before Leon.

    I think if I was drafting for the 2C position I would take Reinhart anyway

    Leon scares me.He is heavier than most players in the WHL and likely won’t have that advantage in the NHL.He is 6’1″, not 6′ 4″.Not a ton of room to grow.

    Plus he went from 58 pts last year to 105 pts this year.He might be a one hit wonder.

    Reinhart has gone 62, 85, 105 the last three years.

    Im not a fan of picking Draisaitl before Ekblad or Bennett. Draisaitl is a late birthday and if he was born 6 weeks earlier, he would have been in last years draft class. He had 0.91 pts per game last year.

    Like I have said before, we are overvaluing the late birthdates, while undervaluing some of early birthdates

  37. regwald says:

    justDOit: Well, he doesn’t sound like the son of *that* Ludwig, by stature, but if he can play the game, and knows how to move a puck, this is like finding money in an old pair of pants.

    From Craig Ludwig’s wiki page:

    Ludwig was inducted into the Wisconsin Hockey Hall of Fame in 2002. After his retirement, he has worked as an assistant coach for the Utah Grizzlies and Dallas Stars. His twin sons, Tyler and Trevor are currently teammates on the Allen Americans of the Central Hockey League.[1] His younger son, C.J., plays defence for the Northern Michigan University.[2

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey: Ekblad is ahead of Draisaitl in every ranking I have seen and appears to be able to play in the NHL before Leon.

    I think if I was drafting for the 2C position I would take Reinhart anyway

    Leon scares me.He is heavier than most players in the WHL and likely won’t have that advantage in the NHL.He is 6’1″, not 6′ 4″.Not a ton of room to grow.

    Plus he went from 58 pts last year to 105 pts this year.He might be a one hit wonder.

    Reinhart has gone 62, 85, 105 the last three years.

    At least one ranking that I know of has Leon ahead.

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/2014-nhl-draft-rankings-draisaitl-takes-over-no-1/

    But most favor Ekblad, and often Reinhart also.

    You also have to recall that Draisaitl’s raider’s weren’t killing it last year.

    http://whl.ca/stats/show/type/skaters/ls_season/242/ls_team/209

    and his past includes destroying the German junior leagues:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=71913

    If his playing weight is 209 now at 18, I don’t think it would be crazy to suggest he might play at 24 with an extra 10-15 pounds.

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: Like I have said before, we are overvaluing the late birthdates, while undervaluing some of early birthdates

    define we.

    I don’t recall anyone here discounting date of birth.

  40. fifthcartel says:

    I think part of the lack of ‘be bad for Ekblad’ is that the draft doesn’t look as appealing especially if it’s a defensemen that they’re picking and bringing into the NHL. Especially with how many high picks Oilers fans have been through, I doubt they finally buy this is the guy the Oilers draft that helps them significantly improve.

    I’m still wary of Ekblad, and if Buffalo picks him #1 I think they just have to pick Reinhart. I wonder if NYI is crazy enough to give Buffalo this years pick and then that solidifies Ekblad as the pick for Buffalo and they pick whatever centre is left at #4.

  41. commonfan14 says:

    frjohnk: Ducey:
    Oh, and “be bad for Ekblad” and “do your part for Reinhart”.
    How bout ” Get Bent for Bennett”

    Everyone better get used to the ring of “This Season’s a Goner for Connor.”

  42. russ99 says:

    frjohnk,

    IMO, birthdates are much less of an issue than the number of years in the CHL.

    Last year was Draisaitl’s first year at the major junior level. MacKinnon had two years, Drouin and Monahan 3 years. Jones was the only top player with one year.

  43. denny33 says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    I am not sure about ekblad I have my doubts with taking a defenseman with such a high pick. Might as well take draisaitl and have the 2C role filled in 2-3 years than possibly have the 1/2D filled in 4-5 years right?
    **************************************************************
    Heard this last year as well…..thank goodness we drafted Nurse.

    Let’s try drafting some defenceman in the 1st round for a few years….try out this new
    age concept called “balance”

    St.Louis has 6 1st round picks on their Defence.

    Get that there are no guarantees and there are lots of busts for sure…but there seems to be an allergy to taking stud D-men in the 1st round around here and in Rexall.

  44. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    The Oilers can always trade a D prospect for a 2C.

    Wait a minute….

    I thought we could trade offensive help for D help by drafting BPA?

    Well, if Yakupov’s boxcars looked more like: 79 29 38 67 53 -16 then a deal could be had.

  45. mumbai max says:

    Caramel Obvious: I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

    I am not sure which word you mean. If I am an RFA, there are two elements to ‘the market’. The team that owns my rights, and any team that wants to offer sheet me. If no team other than my current team deems my value to be high enough to make me an offer, that limits my ‘market’ to my original team. Therefore they are the market. Period. And therefore what they value me at, becomes my market value. This seems pretty straight forward.

    Just to be difficult I would also argue this applies to UFA’s. Whatever a UFA gets is market value. It is impossible to get more or less than market value. You can get more or less than some person or groups PERCEPTION of market value, but actual market value is what you actually get on the market. If I choose to take 5 million from Toronto instead of 6 million from Edmonton, I did not take below market value, I took the market value of me signing in Toronto.

    Ok, I am going to bed now, and hope to wake up to read that the Leafs have been thumped by the Flyers. Perhaps we can agree on that?

  46. Rondo says:

    Many people who win the lottery or otherwise come into large sums of money … says that many lottery winners end up worse off financially than before they won. … money skills prior to this windfall, often they struggle and make poor choices.

    Oilers have won the lottery many times yet they don’t have management skills to build a winning team.

  47. denny33 says:

    fifthcartel,

    I’m still wary of Ekblad, and if Buffalo picks him #1 I think they just have to pick Reinhart. I wonder if NYI is crazy enough to give Buffalo this years pick and then that solidifies Ekblad as the pick for Buffalo and they pick whatever centre is left at #4.
    *****************************************************************************
    Not impossible Buffalo would take Ekblad – but WG just outlined Buffalo’s pipeline of
    D-men ( Ristolainen, Zadorov, etc, etc ) …..bizarre as it sounds they obtained those blue chip D prospects by drafting them in the 1st round. Appears like they have enough D in the pipeline.

    If Islanders to give this years pick – Buffalo could have Sam Bennett and Draisaitl in the same year to come up with Risto and Zadorov….On paper and with prospects – Buffalo would appear to have some nice balance overall in their system.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: define we.

    I don’t recall anyone here discounting date of birth.

    Maybe my wording is wrong, I understand there needs to be a cutoff date somewhere but I believe that late birthdate players vs early birthdate players should have different weighting in value.

    If Draisaitl is born a few weeks earlier, he would have eligible for last years draft, at 0.91 points per game, he is probably a mid to late first round pick in 2013. But because he was born after the cut off date and gets another season of development compared to most 96′s and puts up great numbers, he is a potential top pick in 2014. I think this one example of how the late birthday could give us a false sense of value of a player.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Draisaitl will most likely be a good player, but for me, the late birthdate is a factor in valuing a player for me.

  49. linkfromhyrule says:

    denny33,

    I’m all for balance, but we are actually looking pretty good on defense atm. Not loaded, but not bad. Klef, marincin, nurse etc.

    But what about the center position? You call that balanced? We don’t have a blue chip center prospect. We just don’t. We have a couple that look promising, but none that guarantee to be that “big 2C” that we hear so much about

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    denny33:
    linkfromhyrule,

    I am not sure about ekblad I have my doubts with taking a defenseman with such a high pick. Might as well take draisaitl and have the 2C role filled in 2-3 years than possibly have the 1/2D filled in 4-5 years right?
    **************************************************************
    Heard this last year as well…..thank goodness we drafted Nurse.

    Let’s try drafting some defenceman in the 1st round for a few years….try out this new
    age concept called “balance”

    St.Louis has 6 1st round picks on their Defence.

    Get that there are no guarantees and there are lots of busts for sure…but there seems to be an allergy to taking stud D-men in the 1st round around here and in Rexall.

    Only J-Bow and Pietro were taken in the top 4 and J-Bow isn’t on his draft team. Nor are a number of their others. And, most are mid-round 1st rounders. And, most took years to arrive.

  51. Ben says:

    And yet once again, Oiler fans are left huddling under their blankets with a Playboy and a flashlight on prom night.

  52. slopitch says:

    If Im the Oilers, I draft BPA and move Ebs, Yak or Gagner for a top pairing dman. Supplement as necessary as Ebs > Yak > Gagner IMO.

    Id be scared of Ekblad. Learning the NHL game in a tense market at a young age is a challenge. Not many D have shown as well as Doughty. Too many examples like Bogosian, Hedman, Johnson, Gudbranson, Murray, Jones either take a while or still aren’t there. The Oilers cant afford to wait, the forward cluster is ready to run and the d is a boatanchor.

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: Maybe my wording is wrong, I understand there needs to be a cutoff date somewhere but I believe that late birthdate players vs early birthdate players should have different weighting in value.

    If Draisaitl is born a few weeks earlier, he would have eligible for last years draft, at 0.91 points per game, he is probably a mid to late first round pick in 2013.But because he was born after the cut off date and gets another season of development compared to most 96′s and puts up great numbers, he is a potential top pick in 2014.I think this one example of how the late birthday could give us a false sense of value of a player.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Draisaitl will most likely be a good player, but for me, the late birthdate is a factor in valuing a player for me.

    Yes. And, I’m suggesting most people (if not all) here are aware of this. I don’t think “we” have discounted the issue.

    On several occasions, for example, I’ve said it is the one red flag I have concerning the player (Reinhart also).

    This is a factor, alongside teammates, team strength, what we can glean about usage, etc. that go into assessments.

  54. frjohnk says:

    russ99:
    frjohnk,

    IMO, birthdates are much less of an issue than the number of years in the CHL.

    Last year was Draisaitl’s first year at the major junior level. MacKinnon had two years, Drouin and Monahan 3 years. Jones was the only top player with one year.

    Im sorry but birthdates are more important than number of years in the CHL.

    Connor Brown is in his third OHL season and put up a great season with 128 points in 68 games.
    Connor McDavid is in his third OHL season and put up a great season with 99 points in 56 games.

    Brown was born in 94, Mcdavid in 97

    I know which player I’d like to have on my team

  55. icecastles says:

    Hammers: BPA in any year is a player that actually plays in the NHL. Some years we get 1 or 2 other years 3-5 of them . The problem has been , does it really help the player ????? Obviously some shouldn’t go back to junior . I can’t prove it but my guess is that forwards have the best chance at jumping straight to the NHL.

    Defensemen have a more complex role to learn and the development tends to be later: There’s plenty of evidence that your assertion (forwards having the best chance to jump straight in) is correct.

    As to the BPA actually playing in the NHL… the pressure is certainly there for it to happen, but I think it’s far from a given and not always the best thing. And of course it raises the previously discussed issue of how we define BPA: the best player at the time is not necessarily the player with the highest ceiling. This is my worry with drafting bigger players early – how much of their success is related to the fact that they matured earlier and are as a result closer to their actual peak? Physically dominant at 17 or 18 doesn’t automatically transfer to being dominant in the NHL where everyone else is big too.

    Romulus Apotheosis: I don’t recall anyone here discounting date of birth.

    I would never advocate drafting a player who doesn’t have a birthdate. Though now that I think of it, an immortal centreman could solve a lot of problems…

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    icecastles: I would never advocate drafting a player who doesn’t have a birthdate. Though now that I think of it, an immortal centreman could solve a lot of problems…

    What makes you think something that has always existed can’t also die?

  57. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Yes. And, I’m suggesting most people (if not all) here are aware of this. I don’t think “we” have discounted the issue.

    On several occasions, for example, I’ve said it is the one red flag I have concerning the player (Reinhart also).

    This is a factor, alongside teammates, team strength, what we can glean about usage, etc. that go into assessments.

    Ok, My bad. We good.

  58. icecastles says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: What makes you think something that has always existed can’t also die?

    Neitzche concurs. Damn you both.

    Edit: It occurs to me though that immortality can imply ageless existence: the Elves lived forever without aging (can’t remember where elf babies come from…) but they could still be killed.

    Maybe I’ve unwittingly found the heart of the problem this season… we have a team of Legolases, but they’re being coached by Gimli the angry dwarf.

    Making our silver fox GM Strider/Aragorn, which kinda fits.
    KLowe of course is Denethor. Dick.

  59. LMHF#1 says:

    I know we don’t tend to have any time for +/- around here – and this is probably why – take a look at the last page of players in terms of +/- http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSASAll&viewName=summary&sort=plusMinus&pg=29

    Some very good players on that list.

  60. frjohnk says:

    icecastles:
    I would never advocate drafting a player who doesn’t have a birthdate. Though now that I think of it, an immortal centreman could solve a lot of problems…

    I’d be OK with a 89-90 Messier as our 2nd line center for forever.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    icecastles: Neitzche concurs. Damn you both.

    You killed him.

    …. something about spelling…

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack 1m
    Looks like Belov in for Fraser. It’ll be Belov’s first game since Feb. 27.

  63. frjohnk says:

    LMHF#1:
    I know we don’t tend to have any time for +/- around here– and this is probably why – take a look at the last page of players in terms of +/- http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSASAll&viewName=summary&sort=plusMinus&pg=29

    Some very good players on that list.

    The bottom six of that list gives us a line of ( excluding Weber, no not that Weber)

    Tyler Myers
    Alex Edler

    Steve Ott
    Ovie
    Yak

    I think that could be a good first line in this league.

    but Im sure Glenn Healy would tell us they are the worst hockey players ever

  64. Jordan says:

    Clay:
    The team is stuck in the Fratelli’s basement with Sloth screaming in the other room, and there doesn’t appear to be any way out.

    I bet Sloth would be a beast in the corners…. does anyone know if he can skate? Maybe we just found our new 3RW!

  65. icecastles says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Gord is dead! Or was it Godot?

    Where’s that Gospel of Hockey fellow? He’s usually got the biblical angle down pretty tight.

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    icecastles: Gord is dead! Or was it Godot?

    You’ll never know if Godot is dead or not. As long as he’s yet to arrive, who can tell?

  67. Woodguy says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy,

    One of or both of Ehrhoff and Myers are reportedly on the trade block to get more assets. And they’ll get a lot more back from them than swapping a first pick would.

    I don’t buy the idea that they’d pass up the obvious BPA and a rock on the team in 2-3 years due to what today’s roster looks like. Only the Oilers would do something like that –LOL.

    This from Bill Hoppe who is a beat writer who writes on BUF:

    Bill Hoppe ‏@BillHoppeNHL 6m
    Cory Conacher is back on the top line today w/Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford.

    Top line of Conacher, Ennis and Stafford.

    I think they may need some help up front.

  68. icecastles says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    And why are we still waiting for him?

    He’s off helping Schrodinger figure out what to do about his cat, of course.

    (Incidentally, Schrodinger’s cat used to be my favourite analogy when wondering how the Oilers would play on a given night. Nowadays, the odour from the box tells us that the cat is indeed dead, and has been for some time.)

  69. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: This from Bill Hoppe who is a beat writer who writes on BUF:

    Bill Hoppe ‏@BillHoppeNHL6m
    Cory Conacher is back on the top line today w/Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford.

    Top line of Conacher, Ennis and Stafford.

    I think they may need some help up front.

    I like Girgensons and Armia (big Finns are always welcome) but past that their pipeline of F is iffy.

    If Grigerenko can get back on track that helps, but there’s a lot of uncertainty there.

    They are much deeper in both the NHL and prospect pool in D than F and its not really close.

    With the way Reinhart has played its going to be really tough for them to say no.

    If they threaten to take Ekblad unless the Oilers trade for #1 pick I think they’d be bluffing.

  70. linkfromhyrule says:

    icecastles,

    8 years to be exact

  71. Lois Lowe says:

    Ben,

    Playboy?

    Try the ‘lingerie’ section of the Sears catalogue.

  72. linkfromhyrule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack1m
    Looks like Belov in for Fraser.It’ll be Belov’s first game since Feb. 27.

    It’s about damn time!!! Please let the next tweet be that fraser has been placed on waivers. Or sent to the khl to be belanger’d®

  73. icecastles says:

    Lois Lowe: Try the ‘lingerie’ section of the Sears catalogue.

    It’s not as good as it used to be.

  74. icecastles says:

    See LT, this is what happens when you don’t mention the game in the GDT. We’re children without guidelines.

  75. Jordan says:

    icecastles:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    And why are we still waiting for him?

    He’s off helping Schrodinger figure out what to do about his cat, of course.

    (Incidentally, Schrodinger’s cat used to be my favourite analogy when wondering how the Oilers would play on a given night. Nowadays, the odour from the box tells us that the cat is indeed dead, and has been for some time.)

    You know, I hate it when people go and do something like this.

    They go out and win the thread before we even get to lunch.

    Everything else is going to be downhill from here on out on the blog today.

    And when my friend was thirty-four
    He got his wish in Rome one night
    He got to go down on Madonna
    In Rome one night in some hotel
    And ever since he’s been depressed
    ‘Cause life is sh!t from here on in

    I hope you’re proud IceCastles.

    We peaked too soon gents…

    We peaked too soon.

    P.S.
    This also works for the new book I’m publishing:

    The History of the Edmonton Oilers:
    They peaked too soon.

  76. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack1m
    Looks like Belov in for Fraser.It’ll be Belov’s first game since Feb. 27.

    *faints*

  77. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Jack Michaels ‏@EdmontonJack1m
    Looks like Belov in for Fraser.It’ll be Belov’s first game since Feb. 27.

    Seriously though, this is the sign of sanity I’ve been waiting for.

    My hope that MacT fixes the D properly this summer went from from a 6/10 to a 6.5/10

    Bob making noise that the Oilers might sign Fraser made me edgy.

    Bob has the goods a lot, but he uses a much different tone of voice when he *has* the goods than when he’s musing.

  78. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: I like Girgensons and Armia (big Finns are always welcome) but past that their pipeline of F is iffy.

    If Grigerenko can get back on track that helps, but there’s a lot of uncertainty there.

    They are much deeper in both the NHL and prospect pool in D than F and its not really close.

    With the way Reinhart has played its going to be really tough for them to say no.

    If they threaten to take Ekblad unless the Oilers trade for #1 pick I think they’d be bluffing.

    Buffalo will not only be looking at this draft, but next years as well. They may look at picking up Ekblad as their franchise D man this year and picking McDavid or Eichel as their franchise forward next year.

    Buffalo is loaded with draft picks for 2014 and 2015.

    2014
    1st (BUF)
    1st (NYI) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Vanek trade – Islanders can defer to 2015 1st if top 10; drop-dead date is 1 June 2014
    1st (STL) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Miller/Ott trade – Only acquired if Condition Set A (see below) is true
    2nd (BUF)
    2nd (MIN) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Pominville trade – Sent to STL if Condition Set A (see below) is true
    2nd (WPG) – Acquired in Moulson trade via MIN
    2nd (LA) – Acquired in Regehr trade – Traded to LAK in McNabb trade
    3rd (BUF) – CONDITIONAL – Sent to STL if Condition Set A (see below) is true
    5th (BUF)
    6th (BUF)
    7th (BUF)

    2015
    1st (BUF)
    1st (NYI) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Vanek trade – Islanders can defer from 2014 1st if 2014 1st was top 10; drop-dead date is 1 June 2014
    1st (STL) – Acquired in Miller/Ott trade
    2nd (BUF)
    2nd (NYI) – Acquired in Vanek trade
    4th (BUF)
    5th (BUF)
    6th (BUF)
    7th (BUF)

    Set A (True of any of following conditions are met) [see https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiC7ZIrIAAAHn4i.jpg:large
    1. STL makes it to 2014 Conf. Finals and Miller appears in 50% or more of game minutes during 1st and 2nd round of 2014 Playoffs
    2. STL signs Miller to a contract extension prior to STL own 1st round selection in 2014 NHL Draft
    3. STL trades Miller to another NHL team prior to STL own 1st round selection in 2014 NHL Draft

    This is from hockey future boards sabres http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1394799

  79. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    Came here to post this too. Is this the best defense they’ve dressed all year?

  80. Andy P says:

    Ducey:
    One more.

    Wang is looking to sell his majority stake in the NYI.

    I am not sure anyone is going to jump at the chance to buy them, but a sale would likely mean the end of Garth Snow.

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=447590

    Maybe batman will buy them to hedge his bet on the Oil.

  81. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: My hope that MacT fixes the D properly this summer went from from a 6/10 to a 6.5/10

    A whole .5!

    We need to have a confidence scale under our avatars. It will rate “how confident I am MacT will fix the D” from 1-10. It can be updated by the second.

    When they sign Andrew MacDonald in the offseason my will plummet through the crust of the earth.

  82. JustWatt79 says:

    Clay,

    That Goonies reference/analogy is awesome! Might be the best movie of my childhood

  83. Hammers says:

    icecastles: Defensemen have a more complex role to learn and the development tends to be later: There’s plenty of evidence that your assertion (forwards having the best chance to jump straight in) is correct.

    As to the BPA actually playing in the NHL… the pressure is certainly there for it to happen, but I think it’s far from a given and not always the best thing. And of course it raises the previously discussed issue of how we define BPA: the best player at the time is not necessarily the player with the highest ceiling. This is my worry with drafting bigger players early – how much of their success is related to the fact that they matured earlier and are as a result closer to their actual peak? Physically dominant at 17 or 18 doesn’t automatically transfer to being dominant in the NHL where everyone else is big too.

    I would never advocate drafting a player who doesn’t have a birthdate. Though now that I think of it, an immortal centreman could solve a lot of problems…

    You say defensemen have a complex role to learn . So does a center . Gags should have gone back as he never has fully learned his role . I also see the same in RNH , he should have gone back but to mainly grow into his frame . Skill is there but taking to long in the NHL to get there . Wingers typically thrive , Hall , Landescog to name 2 but Yak is another who should have gone back . Biggest mistakes the Oilers have made is not recognizing who needs more development and I for one hope McT does . ie Nurse .

  84. rich says:

    frjohnk,

    Buffalo needs help up front badly – they just can’t generate any offense. Was at their game last night against NAS and when the game was still on the line they didn’t generate a thing. After it turned into garbage time they generated plenty of shots against NAS 3rd & 4th lines and still could only score 1x on Carter Hutton who is not going to scare anyone.

    Would think that given the way they are set that the only way they take Ekblad 1st is IF they trade Erhoff or Myers. For the Oilers, if I could get Erhoff, it’s worth it as long as the price is not extreme.

    Otherwise, if we’re picking 2nd, I’d be surprised if Ekblad is not there as an option.

    Also, nice to see Fraser gets to sit. Give him credit for trying, but he can’t make a pass at all. Might be worth tuning in to watch tonight now.

  85. Andy P says:

    Rondo:
    Many people who win the lottery or otherwise come into large sums of money … says that many lottery winners end up worse off financially than before they won. … money skills prior to this windfall, often they struggle and make poor choices.

    Oilershave won the lottery many times yet they don’t have managementskills to build a winning team.

    Wet blanket syndrome. Assistants who coach top line talent like wet blankets will seldom allow those players to exploit more than a fraction of their potential. If one of those assistants has been active in exposing the flaws of every coach they’ve had since Quinn, then the best move MacT will make in the offseason will be to give Eakins a fresh set of assistants, of the calibre of assistants he had in 2005/6.
    I suspect a top tier set of assistants would get more out of the current lineup with ongoing tweaks, than the wet blanket brigade may ever get out of anyone. At 7 and 5 years our Assistants have well outlived their bench life.
    I’m not saying they are bad people and need to be simply fired, just that they have shown beyond reasonable doubt that they are not suited to their roles.

  86. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: BUF has Ritsolainen (might be better than Ekblad), Pysyk, McCabe and Zadorov as high end D in the pipeline.

    They currently play in BUF under long term contracts: Ehrhoff and Myers

    They really don’t need another D prospect and are much, much, much thinner up front in terms of prospects.

    Agree!

    We have Marincin, Klefbom.

    of the Dmen nthat faced 1st comp they can be broken up into groups based on Teamate they have support.
    Turns out the edmonton oilers have 5 Dmen who face what is define as 1st Comp. 3 shared the wealth all year.
    Ference, Schultz, Petry.

    Now young Marincin and Klefbom face far superior 1st comp!

    The rank of hardest for all first comp D in (X)

    Klefbom 1st comp (40th) 4th team (2nd) 38.5% ZS (1st) 2.51 EVGA/60 50th best

    Marincin 1st Comp (48th) 4th team(7th) 44.3% (16th) 1.93 EVGA/60 15th best

    Ference 1st comp (70th) bottom of 1st 4th team (9th) 44.3% (16th) 2.88 EVGA/60 67th best

    J. schultz 1st comp (70th) 3rd team (21st) 47.5% (32nd) 2.99 EVGA/60
    His even GA dropped from 3.59/60 to 2.99/60 in the last Games.Hhe has been around a 2.11EVGA/60 Dman since then . Top 25 @ even.

    Petry 1st comp (66th) 2nd Team (51st) 42.8% ZS (9th) 3.04 EVGA/60 70th best
    He went from 3.69 to 3.04 over the last games. 2.28 EVGA/60

    Klefbom has been hammered with tough comp and the worst support in the game while facing the toughest zone start. he has a 2.51 EVGA

    Weber 1st comp 2nd team 44.8% ZS 2.75 EVGA/60
    Orpik 1st comp 2nd team 45.1% ZS 2.67 EVGA/60
    Bogosian 1t comp 2nd team 51% ZS 2.51 EVGA/60
    Fayne 1st Comp 3rd team 46.7% ZS 2.54 EVGA/60
    Byfuglien 1st comp 3rd team 51.1% ZS 3.49 EVGA/60 the worst GA of all tough Comp D.
    Couburn 1st comp 1st team 49.7% ZS 2.73 EVGA/60 60th best
    Josi 1st Comp 1st Team 45.3% ZS 2.72 EVGA/60

    Sulzer 1st comp 4th comp 47.6% ZS 1.83 EVGA/60 top 12 EVGA

    Mact said they were going to test the young Dmen.
    “Here boys”‘take the worst in the game”
    So far the auditions say!
    22 year old – one of the 5 best even Dmen in the game!
    20 year old is making the weber to josi group look like sheltered jokes for EVGA!

    When we look at even point production from Dmen the last 3 years.
    Petry avg top 60
    J. schultz avg top 40
    Ference avg top 55 (top 40 before eakins)
    they all took a dip under Eakins

    Weber Avg top 15
    Nikitin top 60
    Mezaros top 30
    Fayne top 90
    Niskinen top 50 top 70 before this year
    Sekera top 45
    Meyers top 70
    Markov top 70

    Alot of UFA money to get Dmen who are not more functional @ even production or EVGA.

    No Marincin and Klefbom for next year?
    that gets a double fromRed on the 70′s show!

    Double Dumbass!

    .

  87. commonfan14 says:

    frjohnk: Romulus Apotheosis: Yes. And, I’m suggesting most people (if not all) here are aware of this. I don’t think “we” have discounted the issue.
    On several occasions, for example, I’ve said it is the one red flag I have concerning the player (Reinhart also).
    This is a factor, alongside teammates, team strength, what we can glean about usage, etc. that go into assessments.
    Ok, My bad. We good.

    The age thing certainly makes sense in theory, but I did a quick check through past drafts yesterday and there didn’t seem to be any clear conclusions to be drawn about it from the top half of past first rounds.

    Relative success didn’t seem very tied to age at draft time at all, but again it was a quick look.

    One interesting note was that Jordan Staal was the youngest guy in the 2006 draft and ended up being the first F taken over Toews, Backstrom and Kessel (who was nearly a year older than Staal). I’m thinking Pitt would definitely like a do-over on that one.

    That’s cherry-picked, obviously, but was the best example I came across of someone really young going really high.

  88. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Seriously though, this is the sign of sanity I’ve been waiting for.

    My hope that MacT fixes the D properly this summer went from from a 6/10 to a 6.5/10

    Bob making noise that the Oilers might sign Fraser made me edgy.

    Bob has the goods a lot, but he uses a much different tone of voice when he *has* the goods than when he’s musing.

    Yep, me too. I was okay with them giving Fraser a good look to see if there was anything there, but jeez, it’s been obvious for a while that there’s not.

  89. Rondo says:

    frjohnk,

    Buffalo is building for the future , my guess is 2015 draft is loaded with high end Centers. Buffalo will be a lottery team next year and with their 1st rd picks they will get a Center that ranks higher than Reinhart. So if I’m Buffalo I would pick Ekblad.

  90. Ducey says:

    theres oil in virginia: Yep, me too.I was okay with them giving Fraser a good look to see if there was anything there, but jeez, it’s been obvious for a while that there’s not.

    Wasn’t the great Belov-ed injured for quite some time?

  91. Lois Lowe says:

    Jordan:

    The History of the Edmonton Oilers:
    They peaked too soon.

    Agreed. They are the Macaulay Culkin of the NHL.

  92. Numenius says:

    Woodguy: I like Girgensons and Armia (big Finns are always welcome) but past that their pipeline of F is iffy.

    If Grigerenko can get back on track that helps, but there’s a lot of uncertainty there.

    They are much deeper in both the NHL and prospect pool in D than F and its not really close.

    With the way Reinhart has played its going to be really tough for them to say no.

    If they threaten to take Ekblad unless the Oilers trade for #1 pick I think they’d be bluffing.

    If you read Buffalo’s HFBoards, the majority seem to prefer Reinhart if they pick first. I think you’re right management would have a hard time saying no on him.

    Though I seem to remember someone in the know on Twitter arguing that Buffalo is just a deep on forward as D and so could just as well use Ekblad.

  93. gvblackhawk says:

    Rondo:
    frjohnk,

    Buffalo is building for the future , my guess is 2015 draft is loaded with high end Centers.Buffalowill be a lottery team next year and with their 1st rd picks they will geta Center that ranks higher than Reinhart.So if I’m Buffalo I would pick Ekblad.

    If Buffalo was smart, they would take a centre in both drafts. They have an opportunity to create the kind of centre depth that would be the envy of the league. Besides, you can always shift one of them to wing if you have ‘too many’. Their defensive prospect pool is already very strong — Rasmus Ristolainen has the potential to be a franchise Dman and Pysyk, McCabe and Zadorov are no slouches either.

  94. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ducey: Wasn’t the great Belov-ed injured for quite some time?

    Yep. I think though that our Belov-ed was scratched in favor of Fraser at first, then at the trade deadline he got hurt. Seems like there were options other than Fraser though, if they wanted to have a look at somebody.

  95. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: A whole .5!

    We need to have a confidence scale under our avatars. It will rate “how confident I am MacT will fix the D” from 1-10. It can be updated by the second.

    When they sign Andrew MacDonald in the offseason my will plummet through the crust of the earth.

    We could try the Plutchik wheel of emotions:
    http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Plutchik-wheel.svg

    Although to be honest, I think Oiler fans exercise that entire wheel in the span of two periods of an average game.

  96. misfit says:

    Draisaitl is kind of like the center version of Jakub Voracek (who was in contention for the top pick in his draft year), and he could very well end up on the wing as well.

    Very good prospect, and a useful player on any team, but not the kind of guy you pass up an Ekblad/Reinhart/Bennett for. Those 3 are the cream of the crop to me, and passing up on any of them if given the chance would be criminal.

    Anyway, tonight is Selanne’s last game in Edmonton (he’s retiring after this year, is he not?), but I think we end up taking it. Not that he’s that kind of player, but I wonder if he gets the Adam Foote “go ahead and do anything you want because it’s your last game” treatment from the refs tonight.

  97. knighttown says:

    (From the last thread)

    I expect this “multiple years at the bottom” quick sand is a very real thing. The LA and St. Louis rebuild were very slow and steady but required a lot of patience. The thing is, we followed that model and had all of the patience in the world but in the end, the rebuild failed. You can already feel the conversation around the rebuild changing so much. This year we will be 29th with 65-68 points. Three years ago we were 30th with 62 points. Two years ago we were 29th with 68 points. At those moments in time it was all about patience, good drafting etc.

    Now listen to the chatter even among the big heads in the ‘Sphere. The talk is of “Hall’s window” and the ELC’s.

    The highway to hell is littered with teams who tried to force a rebuild.

    Look at the Isles this year trading for Vanek and giving away at worst, Michael Dal Colle and quite possibly Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.

    Remember a few years back when Atlanta was finally in a playoff race at the deadline and traded their future for Keith Tkchuck and Alexei Zhitnik (I think it was their first plus Coburn)? They lost four straight in the playoffs and have not been back since.

    Here’s the thing. As hard as it is for fans to take, the GM must take the long view. They aren’t close to being a perennial contender. The rebuild(s) failed and they need to start again. That does not mean they trade the kids away but it does mean the team should be targeting 2016 and later as a date to be pretty good. It also very clearly does not mean more scorched earth. We’ve learned that losing begets losing and this team needs to start making progress.

    The only way to be a 110 point team is to be a 95 point team for a while. The only way to be a 95 point team is to play at an 82 point team (removing luck) for a while.

    Progress would be 80 points next year and a Corsi approaching 50%.

  98. icecastles says:

    Hammers: Gags should have gone back … Biggest mistakes the Oilers have made is not recognizing who needs more development

    I think that’s one of the things we have long been unanimous about on this blog, particularly in regards to Gagner. Smid to a lesser extent, as well.

  99. icecastles says:

    G Money: Although to be honest, I think Oiler fans exercise that entire wheel in the span of two shifts of an average game.

    Fixed it for you.

  100. frjohnk says:

    gvblackhawk: If Buffalo was smart, they would take a centre in both drafts.They have an opportunity to create the kind of centre depth that would be the envy of the league.Besides, you can always shift one of them to wing if you have ‘too many’.Their defensive prospect pool is already very strong — Rasmus Ristolainen has the potential to be a franchise Dman and Pysyk, McCabe and Zadorov are no slouches either.

    Both McDavid and Eichel are centers, and Im pretty sure, Buffalo gets one of them next year. I imagine they will entertain that thought when drafting their top pick this year.

    As for how they value their own depth on the blue and down the center, we don’t know. But they sure are loaded for bear in the next 3 drafts. Wowzers.

  101. Halfwise says:

    icecastles: Neitzche concurs. Damn you both.Edit: It occurs to me though that immortality can imply ageless existence: the Elves lived forever without aging (can’t remember where elf babies come from…) but they could still be killed. Maybe I’ve unwittingly found the heart of the problem this season… we have a team of Legolases, but they’re being coached by Gimli the angry dwarf.Making our silver fox GM Strider/Aragorn, which kinda fits.KLowe of course is Denethor. Dick.

    KL imagines he is Lord of the Rings but is actually Load of the Rings.

  102. gvblackhawk says:

    frjohnk: Both McDavid and Eichel are centers, and Im pretty sure, Buffalo gets one of them next year.I imagine they will entertain that thought when drafting their top pick this year.

    As for how they value their own depth on the blue and down the center, we don’t know. But they sure are loaded for bear in the next 3 drafts.Wowzers.

    Next draft is stacked. There is another tier of centres after the two dynamoes that is equivalent to this year’s top tier. And one stud defensive prospect named Noah Hanifin. Our Edmonton Oilers are going to get another great player.

  103. commonfan14 says:

    gvblackhawk: Next draft is stacked. There is another tier of centres after the two dynamoes that is equivalent to this year’s top tier. And one stud defensive prospect named Noah Hanifin. Our Edmonton Oilers are going to get another great player

    “At the bottom we’ll stick, to get the Mick.”

  104. icecastles says:

    Halfwise: KL imagines he is Lord of the Rings but is actually Load of the Rings.

    Oooh how did I miss the six rings connection? Very nice.

    I still like to picture him as a Steward who thinks he’s king, and blames his horrible decisions not on hubris but on everyone and everything around him who would dare to question his authority.

    I wonder who Katz is in our imagined casting…. Iluvatar is the obvious (and geeky) one, but feels like a copout. Lady Galadriel? Utterly mysterious and fascinating for that reason; possessing more power than possibly anyone on middle earth, but preferring to remain aloof and only involving herself along the periphery and advising rather than commanding.

    Katz’ fluffy kid is Bill the Pony.

  105. Ryan says:

    knighttown:
    (From the last thread)

    Progress would be 80 points next year and a Corsi approaching 50%.

    That would be a quantum leap not just mere progress.

    Great post btw!

    news flash for everyone else: the Oilers are not going to make the playoffs next season.

  106. icecastles says:

    Ryan,

    I’ll take that bet.

  107. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Buffalo will not only be looking at this draft, but next years as well.They may look at picking up Ekblad as their franchise D man this year and picking McDavid or Eichel as their franchise forward next year.

    Buffalo is loaded with draft picks for 2014 and 2015.

    2014
    1st (BUF)
    1st (NYI) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Vanek trade – Islanders can defer to 2015 1st if top 10; drop-dead date is 1 June 2014
    1st (STL) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Miller/Ott trade – Only acquired if Condition Set A (see below) is true
    2nd (BUF)
    2nd (MIN) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Pominville trade – Sent to STL if Condition Set A (see below) is true
    2nd (WPG) – Acquired in Moulson trade via MIN
    2nd (LA) – Acquired in Regehr trade – Traded to LAK in McNabb trade
    3rd (BUF) – CONDITIONAL – Sent to STL if Condition Set A (see below) is true
    5th (BUF)
    6th (BUF)
    7th (BUF)

    2015
    1st (BUF)
    1st (NYI) – CONDITIONAL – Acquired in Vanek trade – Islanders can defer from 2014 1st if 2014 1st was top 10; drop-dead date is 1 June 2014
    1st (STL) – Acquired in Miller/Ott trade
    2nd (BUF)
    2nd (NYI) – Acquired in Vanek trade
    4th (BUF)
    5th (BUF)
    6th (BUF)
    7th (BUF)

    Set A (True of any of following conditions are met) [see https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiC7ZIrIAAAHn4i.jpg:large
    1. STL makes it to 2014 Conf. Finals and Miller appears in 50% or more of game minutes during 1st and 2nd round of 2014 Playoffs
    2. STL signs Miller to a contract extension prior to STL own 1st round selection in 2014 NHL Draft
    3. STL trades Miller to another NHL team prior to STL own 1st round selection in 2014 NHL Draft

    This is from hockey future boards sabres http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1394799

    All of this is true.

    None of this changes the fact that they are fairly deep on D prospects and uber thin on F prospects.

    Taking Reinhart this year doesn’t preclude them from taking a forward next year, regardless of where they draft.

    LT has been mentioning it, and I’ve heard it too, lots of opinions on Ekblad is more Bogosian than Weber.

    Still projects to be a fine NHLer, but not a show stopper.

  108. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: Agree!

    We haveMarincin, Klefbom.

    of the Dmen nthat faced 1st comp they can be broken up into groups based on Teamate they have support.
    Turns out the edmonton oilers have 5 Dmen who face what is define as 1st Comp. 3 shared the wealth all year.
    Ference, Schultz, Petry.

    Now young Marincin and Klefbom face far superior 1st comp!

    The rank of hardest for all first comp D in (X)

    Klefbom 1st comp (40th) 4th team (2nd) 38.5% ZS (1st)2.51 EVGA/60 50th best

    Marincin 1st Comp (48th) 4th team(7th) 44.3% (16th) 1.93 EVGA/6015th best

    Ference 1st comp (70th) bottom of 1st4th team (9th)44.3% (16th) 2.88 EVGA/60 67th best

    J. schultz 1st comp (70th) 3rd team(21st) 47.5% (32nd) 2.99 EVGA/60
    His even GA dropped from 3.59/60 to 2.99/60 in the last Games.Hhe has been around a 2.11EVGA/60 Dman since then . Top 25 @ even.

    Petry 1st comp (66th) 2nd Team (51st)42.8% ZS (9th)3.04 EVGA/60 70th best
    He went from 3.69 to 3.04 over the last games. 2.28 EVGA/60

    Klefbom has been hammered with tough comp and the worst support in the game while facing the toughest zone start. he has a 2.51 EVGA

    Weber 1st comp 2nd team 44.8% ZS 2.75 EVGA/60
    Orpik 1st comp 2nd team 45.1% ZS 2.67 EVGA/60
    Bogosian 1t comp 2nd team 51% ZS 2.51 EVGA/60
    Fayne 1st Comp 3rd team 46.7% ZS 2.54 EVGA/60
    Byfuglien 1st comp 3rd team 51.1% ZS 3.49 EVGA/60 the worst GA of all tough Comp D.
    Couburn 1st comp 1st team 49.7% ZS2.73 EVGA/60 60th best
    Josi 1st Comp 1st Team 45.3% ZS 2.72 EVGA/60

    Sulzer 1st comp 4th comp47.6% ZS1.83 EVGA/60 top 12 EVGA

    Mact said they were going to test the young Dmen.
    “Here boys”‘take the worst in the game”
    So far the auditions say!
    22 year old – one of the 5 best even Dmen in the game!
    20 year old is making the weber to josi group look like sheltered jokes for EVGA!

    When we look at even point production from Dmen the last 3 years.
    Petry avg top 60
    J. schultz avg top 40
    Ference avg top 55 (top 40 before eakins)
    they all took a dip under Eakins

    Weber Avg top 15
    Nikitin top 60
    Mezaros top 30
    Fayne top 90
    Niskinen top 50 top 70 before this year
    Sekera top 45
    Meyers top 70
    Markov top 70

    Alot of UFA money to get Dmen who are not more functional @ even production or EVGA.

    No Marincin and Klefbom for next year?that gets a double fromRed on the 70′s show!

    Double Dumbass!

    .

    There is soooo much good stuff in a lot of what you post (if you take the time to get where you are going)

    I asked before and I’m asking again:

    Please, please, please stop using GAA in your figures.

    Its dependant on SV%, which Dmen cannot control.

    What they can effect is Shots Against/60.

    Instead of GAA, can you use 5v5 SA/60?

    Pretty please?

  109. Kris11 says:

    Six Rings for the Oiler’s King
    On his dark throne, in Katz’ bat cave
    In the land of Edmonton, where glory fades

  110. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy,

    Came here to post this too. Is this the best defense they’ve dressed all year?

    I think so.

    ANA is decent (not as good as their record) and are 11th in the NHL in 5v5 FF% on the Road with 49.7%

    EDM is not good and is 28th in the NHL in 5v5 FF% at Home with 47%

    ANA is missing Fowler and their FF% and PDO are trending down.

    EDM is icing the best Dcorps they have all year.

    Not one giant anchor to be seen. (been Nultz and Fraser for most of the year)

    Ference might be the worst one out there if Klef doesn’t have too many rookie moments and Belov keeps his gaps large to compensate for his slow feet.

    I think the Oilers have a chance and are +150 now.

    I think that line is really close, but might have a smidge of value.

  111. VanOil says:

    On LT’s radio show today he asked his guest how many rookies start on the Oilers blue line next year.

    My preferred answer is NONE.

    I would trade a 2015 1st and a 3d round pick to Buffalo for Myers
    I would trade Schultz and Fedun to Florida for Kulikov and Florida’s 2014 2nd
    I would trade Gagner to NYI for Brock Nelson
    I would sign Malhotra for a 4th line Center
    I would draft Draisaitl

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Yak-Nelson-Perron
    Hendricks-Gordon-Lander
    Joensuu-Malhotra-Pitlick
    Gadzook

    Myers-Kulikov
    Marincin-Petry
    Belov-Ferrence

    Klefbom can play in the NHL after 1.5 years in the AHL and he is better than Belov
    Simpson can play in the NHL after 1.5 years in the AHL and he is better than Ferrence
    Nurse can play in the NHL after 1.5 years in the AHL and he beats out Petry, Kulikov or Myers

    Myers’ Vollman bubbles have improved since LTs Puck Rant hatchet job in December. Kulikov good looking stats are now matched to positive verbal from his coach and GM. (He played top pairing last night)

    The downside risk of Myers and Kulikov is they top out as Petry class players on slight over pays (this team would be so much better with 2 more Petry’s). The upside is they are both showing signs of figuring it out and reaching there potential. This would give the Oilers a Weber-Sutter class pairing tied up for modest money through the prime of there careers. Backed by a good supporting cast and great pipeline of talent.

    My draft list is Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett then Ekblad. Reinhart trumps Draisaitl on age, I discount Bennett’s truculence and Ekblad’s position and early physical maturity are big red flags for a top 3 pick for me.

    Bringing in Nelson and Malhotra means Draisaitl can also play another year in Jr preserving a ELC year and meaning the Oilers start a year with out rookies in the line up at all. Imagine an Oilers team that is hard to make.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    A whole .5!

    Baby steps.

    My desire for this franchise to make the right decisions has clouded my perception of their actions before.

  113. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Yep, me too.I was okay with them giving Fraser a good look to see if there was anything there, but jeez, it’s been obvious for a while that there’s not.

    Last game was the first that Belov was available to take the spot.

    I can see Eakins saying to Fraser “Belov is ready, but you still start” to give him one last kick at the cat as I’m sure MacT brought him over (for nothing) on Eakins recommendation.

    I hope its done.

  114. Lois Lowe says:

    icecastles,

    Katz is King Theoden of Rohan and Lowe is Wormtoungue.

  115. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: All of this is true.

    None of this changes the fact that they are fairly deep on D prospects and uber thin on F prospects.

    Taking Reinhart this year doesn’t preclude them from taking a forward next year, regardless of where they draft.

    LT has been mentioning it, and I’ve heard it too, lots of opinions on Ekblad is more Bogosian than Weber.

    Still projects to be a fine NHLer, but not a show stopper.

    It will depend on how Buffalo’s management and scouts view him vs the others in this draft year. They have not mentioned ( that I know of) who they would want.

    Just saw that Reinhart has 5 goals 9 assists in 5 games in the playoffs so far.

    Oiler prospects Chase, Moroz and Nurse all having a good playoffs as well.

  116. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    frjohnk,

    Buffalo is building for the future , my guess is 2015 draft is loaded with high end Centers.Buffalowill be a lottery team
    next year and with their 1st rd picks they will geta Center that ranks higher than Reinhart.So if I’m Buffalo I would pick Ekblad.

    Can never, ever, ever, ever have too many centers.

  117. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Wasn’t the great Belov-ed injured for quite some time?

    Last game was the first time Belov was available in a while.

    2nd game he gets in.

    That’s cool.

  118. Woodguy says:

    gvblackhawk: If Buffalo was smart, they would take a centre in both drafts.They have an opportunity to create the kind of centre depth that would be the envy of the league.Besides, you can always shift one of them to wing if you have ‘too many’.Their defensive prospect pool is already very strong — Rasmus Ristolainen has the potential to be a franchise Dman and Pysyk, McCabe and Zadorov are no slouches either.

    You said it better than me.

  119. VanOil says:

    I have learned today that Nietzsche killed Gord while waiting for Godot to accept Eakins. I also have learned we smell Schrodinger’s cat when the Oil kill puppies. I am not sure what any of this has to do with Russian proverbs and Finnish hockey players but I am going to liquor store to look for answers.

  120. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    That is true ,look at Colorado.

  121. Kris11 says:

    Defence for next year is everything. i think Nurse makes it and can contribute.

    But this is not so good (too young and mistake-prone):

    Marincin-Petry
    Nurse-Schultz
    Klefbom-Ference
    Crappy Whoever

    What would be better:

    Elite LD – Schultz
    Marincin-Petry
    Nurse/Klefbom-Ference
    Nurse/Klefbom

    What is likely, IMO:

    Marincin-Petry
    Blah UFA LD -Schultz
    Klefbom-Ference
    Nurse

  122. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    (From the last thread)

    I expect this “multiple years at the bottom” quick sand is a very real thing. The LA and St. Louis rebuild were very slow and steady but required a lot of patience. The thing is, we followed that model and had all of the patience in the world but in the end, the rebuild failed. You can already feel the conversation around the rebuild changing so much. This year we will be 29th with 65-68 points. Three years ago we were 30th with 62 points. Two years ago we were 29th with 68 points. At those moments in time it was all about patience, good drafting etc.

    Now listen to the chatter even among the big heads in the ‘Sphere. The talk is of “Hall’s window” and the ELC’s.

    The highway to hell is littered with teams who tried to force a rebuild.

    Look at the Isles this year trading for Vanek and giving away at worst, Michael Dal Colle and quite possibly Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.

    Remember a few years back when Atlanta was finally in a playoff race at the deadline and traded their future for Keith Tkchuck and Alexei Zhitnik (I think it was their first plus Coburn)? They lost four straight in the playoffs and have not been back since.

    Here’s the thing. As hard as it is for fans to take, the GM must take the long view. They aren’t close to being a perennial contender. The rebuild(s) failed and they need to start again. That does not mean they trade the kids away but it does mean the team should be targeting 2016 and later as a date to be pretty good. It also very clearly does not mean more scorched earth. We’ve learned that losing begets losing and this team needs to start making progress.

    The only way to be a 110 point team is to be a 95 point team for a while. The only way to be a 95 point team is to play at an 82 point team (removing luck) for a while.

    Progress would be 80 points next year and a Corsi approaching 50%.

    So what are the Oilers doing or some of us telling them to do that you would consider “forcing the rebuild”?

    Also,

    Do you have a link to your post here on TOI of the top 9 Dmen on the roster.

    That’s an all time great and I want to bookmark it.

    Googled it and my kung-fu is no good.

  123. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    Both McDavid and Eichel are centers, and Im pretty sure, Buffalo gets one of them next year.

    As shitty as BUF is there is a whole lot of road between then and now.

    All sorts of shit can happen to keep them from the top 2 next year.

    *digs in book of cliches*

    A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

    Don’t count your chickens before they hatch

    Etc, etc.

  124. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    I’m waiting for Jakob Chychrun.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Kris11:
    Six Rings for the Oiler’s King
    On his dark throne, in Katz’ bat cave
    In the land of Edmonton, where glory fades

    I’m going to ask me mum to stitch that on a sampler for me.

  126. Woodguy says:

    VanOil,

    I would trade a 2015 1st and a 3d round pick to Buffalo for Myers

    No sir.

    For that lucky ticket a much better player needs to come back.

    I’m not just talking about the top 2, the top 25 or so is slated to produce fine NHLers.

    2003 gets thrown around a lot, but next year is the closest thing to 2003 and 1979 since 2003 and 1979.

  127. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    It will depend on how Buffalo’s management and scouts view him vs the others in this draft year. They have not mentioned ( that I know of) who they would want.

    I think you’re right in that they take the long view.

    I just don’t think that precludes them from taking Reinhart if they pick 1st.

  128. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    I’m waiting for Jakob Chychrun.

    I’m waiting for the waitress to bring me another Chelada.

  129. icecastles says:

    VanOil:
    I have learned today that Nietzsche killed Gord while waiting for Godot to accept Eakins. I also have learned we smell Schrodinger’s cat when the Oil kill puppies. I am not sure what any of this has to do with Russian proverbs and Finnish hockey players but I am going to liquor store to look for answers.

    Like a Russian, it’s truly enigmatic. And like a Finn, it’s no clearer in Tikkanese.

  130. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    That is true ,look at Colorado.

    What is true and what am I looking at in Colorado?

    I’ve posted a ton and don’t know what you are referring to?

    Can’t have too many C’s?

    Probably that one, COL has some good ones playing wing.

    Nothing wrong with that at all.

    Just ask Team Canada.

  131. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: I’m waiting for the waitress to bring me another Chelada.

    Oh thank Gord, its here.

  132. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes that was what I was referring too.

    If you had the # 1 pick in the 2014 draft who do you choose?

  133. sliderule says:

    You would have to think Sabres are going to take Reinhart or Bennett. The western Sam is leading the race with all the points but there are reports bad goaltending has assisted him.The Sabres are probably hoping that western Sam gets to next round to get a better handle on him.
    The oiler brass were reportedly watching DalColle last night.He got a goal and assist in overtime win so he probably impressed.He has been piling up the points and as Oshawa has a good team the oilers will get more looks at him.The word is he has been playing centre for last half of season.He like Bennett has a late June birth date.
    I know LT say we shouldn’t be excited but I am as I feel any of the five top could have gone number one or two in 2012.

  134. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Corey Pronman was asked where Sam Reinhart would have been ranked in the 2013 draft his answer was # 4 or # 5.

  135. Bruce McCurdy says:

    mumbai max: It makes Gagner, Hall, and Eberle paid at about the right rate.

    Gagner is an 8-goal scorer being paid at the rate of a 20+ goal scorer. What am I missing?

    Woodguy: Top line of Conacher, Ennis and Stafford.
    I think they may need some help up front.

    That’s the same trio that lit Oilers up last week. Maybe WE need some help up front.

    commonfan14: That’s cherry-picked, obviously, but was the best example I came across of someone really young going really high.

    You should check out this MacKinnon feller over in Colorado.

  136. VanOil says:

    Woodguy:
    VanOil,

    I would trade a 2015 1st and a 3d round pick to Buffalo for Myers

    No sir.

    For that lucky ticket a much better player needs to come back.

    I’m not just talking about the top 2, the top 25 or so is slated to produce fine NHLers.

    2003 gets thrown around a lot, but next year is the closest thing to 2003 and 1979 since 2003 and 1979.

    A Bird in Hand for Magic Beans trade. My desire for defensemen currently trumps my desire for draft picks. I reserve the right to change my mind when I can start to see the bean sprouts and respect others having a different view. I ain’t no gardener and Grouse are to stupid to hunt but good draft years are not a guarantee of good draft selections.

  137. denny33 says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    I’m all for balance, but we are actually looking pretty good on defense atm. Not loaded, but not bad. Klef, marincin, nurse etc.
    ************************************************************************************
    Agreed – but our number one shortcoming according to a lot of people is D-men. ( Mark Fraser, Ryan Whitney and Nick Schultz all put on jerseys for us )

    But what about the center position? You call that balanced? We don’t have a blue chip center prospect. We just don’t. We have a couple that look promising, but none that guarantee to be that “big 2C” that we hear so much about
    ***********************************************************************
    Completely agree – we are 29th for a reason. We have a shortage of Centres as well big time.

    Again, to your point if Ekblad is off the board I would have no problem taking Sam Bennett or any of the C’s.

    When Darnell Nurse was actually drafted by Edmonton last year….there was audible applause at other tables…..those were not fans.

  138. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Gagner is an 8-goal scorer being paid at the rate of a 20+ goal scorer. What am I missing?

    The Kassian video?

  139. TheOtherJohn says:

    Seriously: how the bleep did Buffalo get 3 1st round picks in a year with McDavid and Eichel?

  140. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Last game was the first that Belov was available to take the spot.

    I can see Eakins saying to Fraser “Belov is ready, but you still start” to give him one last kick at the cat as I’m sure MacT brought him over (for nothing) on Eakins recommendation.

    I hope its done.

    I have to admit, I was a little hopeful (don’t tell Rom) that Fraser would show improvement and start looking like an NHL defenseman. It would have been nice to have a guy on the roster with his size and enough skill to play bottom pair. I thought he showed a little improvement from his first games, but then regressed soon after. I don’t remember seeing even one game where I thought he looked like he was NHL-calibre. I’m alright with MacT making these low-cost bets, but when the dealer throws you a deuce when you needed a face-card, you’ve got to fold. If they sign him now, it’ll be a real head-scratcher.

    Belov really needs to come out and play well. I figure he’s not getting much interest around the league without a strong showing in the final games.

  141. TheOtherJohn says:

    If Schultz is playing top pairing minutes next year for us we are not making the playoffs.

    That may change—if we can get a 33 year old Chris Pronger to pair with him

  142. denny33 says:

    VanOil,

    I would trade a 2015 1st and a 3d round pick to Buffalo for Myers
    ***************************************************************************
    If it was your job – honestly – and Dallas is your coach….would you trade our 2015 1st pick?

  143. speeds says:

    Q for Woodguy (and anyone else):

    Kind of along the lines of your Eberle/Gagner thoughts:

    If you view J.Schultz as a 3rd pair RD next year anyways, what sort of return would you need to get for him in a trade to move him and retain Larsen as the 3 RD vs. keeping Schultz and declining to give Larsen a QO?

  144. gvblackhawk says:

    commonfan14: “At the bottom we’ll stick, to get the Mick.”

    Nice jingle. Can you do one for Jack Eichel?

  145. Ducey says:

    VanOil: A Bird in Hand for Magic Beans trade. My desire for defensemen currently trumps my desire for draft picks. I reserve the right to change my mind when I can start to see the bean sprouts and respect others having a different view. I ain’t no gardener and Grouse are to stupid to hunt but good draft years are not a guarantee of good draft selections.

    The Oilers don’t need to be dumping high draft picks in good drafts just so they can improve from 29th to 25th. That just perpetuates the futility and is the kind of thing Garth Snow now looks like an idiot for.

  146. knighttown says:

    Woodguy: So what are the Oilers doing or some of us telling them to do that you would consider “forcing the rebuild”?

    Also,

    Do you have a link to your post here on TOI of the top 9 Dmen on the roster.

    That’s an all time great and I want to bookmark it.

    Googled it and my kung-fu is no good.

    Frig no. I can never find any of the stuff I post after the fact. How would I even begin if I never kept it? You must have some system in place cause you seem to be able to pull what you need, when you need it. Any advice would help. Maybe LT can find it.

    I certainly remember the work that was done on it and the final shocking outcome was that Jason Strudwick spent more time on the ice than any Oiler forward not named Horcoff one season and he started the season as the #8 or #9. Defensemen play more per game AND they get injured more so are more likely to have to play above their heads.

    This is why I applauded all of the depth acquisitions this year. I thought having a d-men 5-12 of Nultz, belov, Larsson, Grebs, Potter, Chorney, Marincin, Klefbom would make a massive difference and I suppose it has. We haven’t had any of these Alex Plante callups where the guy clearly can’t play at all. We’ve chosen to give Strudwick Part 2 (Fraser) a primo role but that’s because we’re idiots not because of desperation. One guy goes down, the other guy comes up and you really don’t see a difference.

    The problem is that I/we underestimated how much our Top 4 of Smid, Petry, Jultz and Ference would be over matched in this Death Conference.

    Anyway, back to that post. If you rank importance to the team based on cumulative time on the ice in a season (and why wouldn’t you) your #8 d-man is far more important than your 4th liners and probably more than your 2nd and 3rd liners.

    2006 Chris Pronger is worth 15 million to play 30 minutes of perfect hockey. You know you’ve won that half of the game (on average) of 1-0 against the other teams best. Now can your other good players go out and tie the other teams mediocre players for the last half of the game.

    My fucking castle for a Drew Doughty on this team for the next decade.

  147. denny33 says:

    Lowetide,

    The Kassian video?
    ***************************
    That was September of 2013 – that was half a year ago…..

  148. G Money says:

    Well, fellow Oiler masochists, I have some bad news for you: you’ll have to do without reading my dulcet typing tones for the next week.

    I’m off to lie on a beach in Mexico for the next seven days. The only rebuilding I plan to think about is “Bartender, please rebuild this Margarita, por favor”. I will however be wearing my ON #YAKCITY shirt – gotta represent.

    I expect you Tier 3ers to have driven at least one bad player out of town and/or force the Oilers to miraculously get into the playoffs, I will be sorely disappointed in all of you if that isn’t the case.

  149. speeds says:

    G Money,

    Where are you heading in Mexico?

  150. Lowetide says:

    denny33:
    Lowetide,

    The Kassian video?
    ***************************
    That was September of 2013 – that was half a year ago…..

    So, how much of the season did it impact? The period he didn’t play for sure, but how much after that? Do you feel he performed at a high level in the first game upon return? Second? At what point did we go from “man, he’s still hurt, not close to previous levels” to “well, he’s back to normal offensively.”

    It was a big damn part of the season, I’ll say that much.

  151. knighttown says:

    To your other point Darcy, about “forcing the rebuild” I actually think MacTavish has done an excellent job of forcing nothing. He hasn’t made that one dreadful deal that would set this team back to square 1 like the Isles did with Vanek. If he moves Ekblad for Markov, he will have done that. Even if he moves him for Ehrhoff, I still think it’s a disaster.

    We’re a low 40′s Corsi against our conference and have been now for years. LA, Chicago and San Jose are in the mid to high 50′s and I rate St. Louis pretty high too. Those teams aren’t exactly old.

    They aren’t making up 15 Corgis or 50 standings points (on 4-6 elite teams!) in 2 seasons with or without Ehrhoff.

    I’m a golf guy and the old saying is, you can’t win the tournament on Thursday but you can damn well lose it. Like or lump it, we’re stiiiiiiillllll on Thursday here in YEG. Find a way to get to Friday (46-49% Corgi and 80+ standings points) through organic growth and then, by all means, start looking at windows closing.

    Hall window. Eberle window. Window to what?

  152. Rondo says:

    Top 2014 NHL Draft prospects offer self-evaluations.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=711556&cmpid=nhl-twt

  153. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Well, fellow Oiler masochists, I have some bad news for you: you’ll have to do without reading my dulcet typing tones for the next week.

    I’m off to lie on a beach in Mexico for the next seven days.The only rebuilding I plan to think about is “Bartender, please rebuild this Margarita, por favor”.I will however be wearing my ON #YAKCITY shirt – gotta represent.

    I expect you Tier 3ers to have driven at least one bad player out of town and/or force the Oilers to miraculously get into the playoffs, I will be sorely disappointed in all of you if that isn’t the case.

    find a swim up bar and order a fruity drink for me!!!! Bastard!!!!! Enjoy. :-)

  154. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowe traded Stoll after his concussion slowed him down so you can bet that they have a rather short tolerance on timeline of his recovery.
    Those that never learn from the past are destined to repeat it.

  155. commonfan14 says:

    gvblackhawk,

    “If the lottery goes wack, we’ll settle for Jack.”

  156. denny33 says:

    G Money,

    Well, fellow Oiler masochists, I have some bad news for you: you’ll have to do without reading my dulcet typing tones for the next week.
    I’m off to lie on a beach in Mexico for the next seven days. The only rebuilding I plan to think about is “Bartender, please rebuild this Margarita, por favor”. I will however be wearing my ON #YAKCITY shirt – gotta represent.
    I expect you Tier 3ers to have driven at least one bad player out of town and/or force the Oilers to miraculously get into the playoffs, I will be sorely disappointed in all of you if that isn’t the case.
    *******************************************************************************************
    Traitor…while the rest of us are busy rebuilding the franchise you will be drinking on the beach…

    Some people….

  157. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: There is soooo much good stuff in a lot of what you post (if you take the time to get where you are going)

    I asked before and I’m asking again:

    Please, please, please stop using GAA in your figures.

    Its dependant on SV%, which Dmen cannot control.

    What they can effect is Shots Against/60.

    Instead of GAA, can you use 5v5 SA/60?

    Pretty please?

    I was initially an advocate of SA/60 since it filtered out the puck to net affect from corsi.

    1. Puck released (corsi – (blocked& missed)) SA/60.

    Then some kind of ninja come out with the shot chart.

    It is hard not to break down the SA/60 into define shots by distance.

    with such a varied success rate by distance
    All shots are not Equal.
    Just like all Corsi data was not equal.

    What becomes apparant is 0-20ft shots are important.
    an average d and goalie result is 20% success rate.
    20 ft out it is in aproximatly 5% success rate.

    So one needs to look at a goalies performance inside 20 FT
    Raask: Bishop; Reimer, Scrivens very good.

    one needs to look at the % of shots inside 20ft given up by Dmen.

    one needs to look if there are poor results in the 20-30 ft range.
    Quit consistently a reflection of teams with poor forward back checking!

    Then you need to look at which side the goals are coming from.

    Fistric gave up 7G on 148 Shots.
    there were 50 shots inside 20ft 33% with a success rate of 10%

    But what was important was when you looked at the dmans side versus the partners side.
    Inside 20 ft there was a marked diffrence. 13 of 55 shots were on fistrics side.
    when you went outside 20 ft the shot distribution become almost 50/50.

    There was not as marked a variance of d partners when you looked at otther teams
    but yu can see a strong defensive dman. from shot distribution!

    Plus the 50/50 outside 20ft continued to trend. Forwards versus box protection?

    This is why I use GA.

    until we break down shots per d pair side.
    Accept that Forward pressure is important 20 ft out.

    I will use Ga cause it does distinguish the affect of D pairs.

    2 of the 7 g on 148 shots came from fistrics side!
    There was a reason I beat the fistric Drum!

    There is a reason Anaheim signed him to a 3yr extension similiar to the one MacT offered.

  158. denny33 says:

    commonfan14,

    Well done…

  159. jake70 says:

    LT, the festivities at the Big O underway – Jays and Mets. I hear they are going to do a tribute to the Kid. Get out the kleenex. 80000 tickets sold for 2 games.

  160. denny33 says:

    Lowetide,

    So, how much of the season did it impact? The period he didn’t play for sure, but how much after that? Do you feel he performed at a high level in the first game upon return? Second? At what point did we go from “man, he’s still hurt, not close to previous levels” to “well, he’s back to normal offensively.”
    It was a big damn part of the season, I’ll say that much.
    **************************************************************
    Good points….

  161. theres oil in virginia says:

    knighttown: Frig no. I can never find any of the stuff I post after the fact. How would I even begin if I never kept it? You must have some system in place cause you seem to be able to pull what you need, when you need it. Any advice would help. Maybe LT can find it.
    I certainly remember the work that was done on it and the final shocking outcome was that Jason Strudwick spent more time on the ice than any Oiler forward not named Horcoff one season and he started the season as the #8 or #9. Defensemen play more per game AND they get injured more so are more likely to have to play above their heads.

    Trying out my kung fu:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2009/10/prospect-development-questions.html/comment-page-1#comment-90591

    I wasn’t witness to it, so I’m just going on the above. It looks like the right conversation at least.

  162. gvblackhawk says:

    rickithebear,

    Actually, if you believe the reports, he signed for much less in Anaheim.

  163. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: So, how much of the season did it impact? The period he didn’t play for sure, but how much after that? Do you feel he performed at a high level in the first game upon return? Second? At what point did we go from “man, he’s still hurt, not close to previous levels” to “well, he’s back to normal offensively.”

    It was a big damn part of the season, I’ll say that much.

    That was the turning point of the season, for sure, before it even fucking started. Went downhill hard from there, starting with MacIntyre being claimed off the waiver wire & continuing south to Devan Dubnyk forgetting how to play goal and you all know the rest.

    But I for one have not gotten past blaming Kassian for bring his stick down, hard, on the first domino.

    While I have no small sympathy for Sam’s plight, I was more questioning how Mumbai Max arrived at “Gagner is covering the bet” based on his own math. I was legitimately puzzled by that. Something’s been lost in translation there, I’m sure he will clear it up after he wakes up. :)

  164. G Money says:

    speeds,

    Mayan Riviera (Grand Palladium). You heading out there too?

  165. G Money says:

    Lowetide: find a swim up bar and order a fruity drink for me!!!! Bastard!!!!! Enjoy.

    denny33: Traitor…while the rest of us are busy rebuilding the franchise you will be drinking on the beach…
    Some people….

    I will ask for some extra ice in at least one of my drinks each day, in honour of your collective sacrifice! Bye all!

  166. icecastles says:

    G Money,

    That’s no excuse. Some scouts making a living from Mexico…

  167. speeds says:

    G Money,

    No, but I’ve been to Puerto Vallarta a couple of times, so I was thinking if you were going there I could give you a heads up on a couple of sports bars if you had any interest in catching an Oilers game or two while there.

    Have never been to the east side of Mexico though, can’t help you out there!

  168. Lowetide says:

    A little something on the Leafs weekend

    http://www.puckrant.com/Slapshot/PEOPLE_GET_READY

  169. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rickithebear: I was initially an advocate of SA/60 since it filtered out the puck to net affect from corsi.

    1. Puck released (corsi – (blocked& missed)) SA/60.

    Then some kind of ninja come out with the shot chart.

    It is hard not to break down the SA/60 into define shots by distance.

    with such a varied success rate by distance
    All shots are not Equal.
    Just like all Corsi data was not equal.

    What becomes apparant is 0-20ft shots are important.
    an average d and goalie result is 20% success rate.
    20 ft out it is in aproximatly 5% success rate.

    So one needs to look at a goalies performance inside 20 FT
    Raask: Bishop; Reimer, Scrivens very good.

    one needs to look at the % of shots inside 20ftgiven up by Dmen.

    one needs to look if there are poor results in the 20-30 ft range.
    Quit consistently a reflection of teams with poor forward back checking!

    Then you need to look atwhich side the goals are coming from.

    Fistric gave up 7G on 148 Shots.
    there were 50 shots inside 20ft 33% with a success rate of 10%

    But what was important was when you looked at the dmans side versus the partners side.
    Inside 20 ft there was a marked diffrence. 13 of 55 shots were on fistrics side.
    when you went outside 20 ft the shot distribution become almost 50/50.

    There was not as marked a variance ofd partners when you looked at otther teams
    but yu can see a strong defensive dman. from shot distribution!

    Plus the 50/50 outside 20ft continued to trend. Forwards versus box protection?

    This is why I use GA.

    until we break down shots per d pair side.
    Accept that Forward pressure is important 20 ft out.

    I will use Ga cause it does distinguish the affect of D pairs.

    2 of the 7 g on 148 shots came from fistrics side!
    There was a reason I beat the fistric Drum!

    There is a reason Anaheim signed him to a 3yr extension similiar to the one MacT offered.

    Ricki: Keep doing what you’re doing. I can’t say as I always follow you from premise through conclusion, but you have a unique way of collecting & parsing data which I for one appreciate.

    What you say here corresponds to some degree with what Mike Parkatti has been saying about shot distance, from which he works out an Expected Goals outcome which is more refined than raw shot attempts.

    But it’s also important to not only have the data but some way to connect it with what’s happening on the ice. Which is where observations like: “until we break down shots per d pair side. Accept that Forward pressure is important 20 ft out” are interesting. That is the sort of thing that might have actual value translating from analytical tool to systems tool.

    There’s a wealth of data out there nowadays but in some ways we’re still scratching the surface of what it means and how to use it. (Especially in areas like stay-at-home d-men, who are the offensive linemen of hockey statistics.) Keep those ideas coming.

  170. Lois Lowe says:

    gvblackhawk,

    Continuing the vicious cycle for Eichel.

  171. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    I have read Brock Nelson a few times as a potential target, but wouldn’t an Eberle for Strome swap better help both teams? Frans Neilson seems to be a solid 2C solution for the Isles until Brock Nelson further develops and a line switch down the road would make sense. Eberle would give the Isles some depth on T6 wing (which they were trying to do on Vanek trade) They are pretty solid down the middle. Eberle is locked in for some term (which Snow has to now be pretty damn wary of in a trade).

    Strome would give us a three year development jump versus drafting a center this year and we could then pursue an Ekblad selection (if its available). I know its youth, but if we are considering a pick as a 2C, Strome seems like a solid way to go and provides a better T6 balance.

  172. knighttown says:

    theres oil in virginia: Trying out my kung fu:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2009/10/prospect-development-questions.html/comment-page-1#comment-90591

    I wasn’t witness to it, so I’m just going on the above.It looks like the right conversation at least.

    Solid work there Columbo!

    This won’t further this particular conversation but it is relevant so I’ll post it again in the hope that the idea finally gains some traction.
    Teams need to start to look at defensemen numbers 7-11 on the depth chart as much as forwards, 9-12. Even with the flu bug, we’ve yet to call a forward up from the AHL and have only used 14 forwards all season. We’ve already used 9 defenseman.
    Here are some startling stats:
    Jason Strudwick spent the first two games in the PB. In the 11 games since he has played more minutes this season (not average, TOTAL) than Hemsky, Penner, O’Sullivan, Gagner, Cogliano, Moreau, Nilsson, Stortini, Brule and Comrie. Basically, every forward but Horcoff.
    And this guy was an afterthought who gets paid minimum wage and big surprise, he gets killed in scoring chances when he’s out there.
    Taylor Chorney, since he’s been promoted has played more minutes than every forward except Hemsky and Horcoff.
    And this was a guy getting lit up by AAA pitching last year. He’s survived to this point but can it hold up?
    I don’t think I’d get any argument that Jason Strudwick will be more important to this team than Steve MacIntyre but if I’d mentioned he’d have more impact on our team than Ales Hemsky people would say I was nuts. But he has.

  173. Numenius says:

    rickithebear:

    2 of the 7 g on 148 shots came from fistrics side!
    There was a reason I beat the fistric Drum!

    There is a reason Anaheim signed him to a 3yr extension similiar to the one MacT offered.

    I always had a tendency to see Fistric good and am “glad” in a sense to hear the numbers back it up.

    I’d be much gladder if the re-signing worked out though.

    *facepalm*

    Edit: Nice work on the data ricki.

  174. Ribs says:

    I hope Perron can crack 30 goals this season. So close!

    What the hell is a Chelada?

  175. mumbai max says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Gagner is an 8-goal scorer being paid at the rate of a 20+ goal scorer. What am I missing?

    12 goals?

  176. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Yes that was what I was referring too.

    If you had the # 1 pick in the 2014 draft who doyou choose?

    Who am I picking for?

  177. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Oilers.

  178. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Oilers.

    I try to find a team that has a young C that I love and who desperately wants Pronger 2.0 and thinks that Ekblad is that man.

    Perhaps trade the pick to PHI for Couturier +?

    :)

    I am a one song jukebox.

  179. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Corey Pronman was asked where Sam Reinhart would have been ranked in the 2013 draft his answerwas# 4or # 5.

    Perhaps.

    Not to be a dick, but what are you getting at?

  180. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    That’s the same trio that lit Oilers up last week. Maybe WE need some help up front.

    No, the team needs some goddam Actual NHL Dmen.

  181. Woodguy says:

    VanOil: A Bird in Hand for Magic Beans trade. My desire for defensemen currently trumps my desire for draft picks. I reserve the right to change my mind when I can start to see the bean sprouts and respect others having a different view. I ain’t no gardener and Grouse are to stupid to hunt but good draft years are not a guarantee of good draft selections.

    All good points but I’m not sure Myers is that guy I use that batch of powder on.

  182. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Since Im a Couturier fan, i would make that trade, Philly would be so tempted by that trade. Oiler fans I would think would be dissappointed.

  183. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Q for Woodguy (and anyone else):

    Kind of along the lines of your Eberle/Gagner thoughts:

    If you view J.Schultz as a 3rd pair RD next year anyways, what sort of return would you need to get for him in a trade to move him and retain Larsen as the 3 RD vs. keeping Schultz and declining to give Larsen a QO?

    I think a dirty little secret on the Oilers is that Larsen was better than Jultz in the same spot.

    I try to put him with someone else and hit a home run.

    Jultz probably still has some serious cache in the NHL (EVERYONE pitched him, everyone)

    I’d bet most GM’s write his results off to being on the Oilers.

    I roll him into a Real NHL 1st Pairing Dman who can break the cycle and make the first pass and good decision making and is under 29.

    I have to add something, but that’s ok.

    Or trade him to PHI for Couturier.

    /brokenrecord

  184. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    I was just surprised that Pronman has Reinhart ranked higher than Monahan.

  185. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    I certainly remember the work that was done on it and the final shocking outcome was that Jason Strudwick spent more time on the ice than any Oiler forward not named Horcoff one season and he started the season as the #8 or #9. Defensemen play more per game AND they get injured more so are more likely to have to play above their heads.

    This needs to be stitched to a sampler and hung in MacT’s office.

  186. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    2006 Chris Pronger is worth 15 million to play 30 minutes of perfect hockey. You know you’ve won that half of the game (on average) of 1-0 against the other teams best. Now can your other good players go out and tie the other teams mediocre players for the last half of the game.
    My fucking castle for a Drew Doughty on this team for the next decade.

    I’d say that this needs to be tatoo’d to Rick Olczyk’s ass and then require him to moon MacT every morning, but I know that MacT knows exactly what a Pronger means.

  187. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Well, fellow Oiler masochists, I have some bad news for you: you’ll have to do without reading my dulcet typing tones for the next week.

    I’m off to lie on a beach in Mexico for the next seven days.The only rebuilding I plan to think about is “Bartender, please rebuild this Margarita, por favor”.I will however be wearing my ON #YAKCITY shirt – gotta represent.

    I expect you Tier 3ers to have driven at least one bad player out of town and/or force the Oilers to miraculously get into the playoffs, I will be sorely disappointed in all of you if that isn’t the case.

    I’m at my condo in Chandler, AZ.

    A bit cool today at 28C.

    I’ll manage.

    Have fun!!!

  188. sliderule says:

    Last year Gagner had 14-24 -38pts .
    Giroux had 13-34 -47 on a superior team.
    Gagner and Giroux are similar players in that they skate about the same are good passers and so so defensively.
    All the Gagner haters can join with the Cogliano haters after he is traded for magic beans and puts up good numbers for a real team.

  189. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    But your reasons for using GAA are even better reasons not to!

    You see the variance in GAA in the different goalies, get rid of it!

    You have to live with the partner effect on SA/60, but that’s ok, once you identify who you like, you can go into more detail to separate partner effects.

    Please?

  190. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    It was a wonderful day .

    Teed off at 730 with no wind.

    Having a glass of wine on the patio before moving in to watch the game.

  191. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Trying out my kung fu:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2009/10/prospect-development-questions.html/comment-page-1#comment-90591

    I wasn’t witness to it, so I’m just going on the above.It looks like the right conversation at least.

    That’s not the thread, but I bet the next thread or two KT fleshes out what he was saying there.

    Excellent Kung Fu.

  192. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    I will ask for some extra ice in at least one of my drinks each day, in honour of your collective sacrifice!Bye all!

    Hope you got your Hep A/B/C shots.

    Worth every penny and pain.

  193. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Ricki: Keep doing what you’re doing. I can’t say as I always follow you from premise through conclusion, but you have a unique way of collecting & parsing data which I for one appreciate.

    What you say here corresponds to some degree with what Mike Parkatti has been saying about shot distance, from which he works out an Expected Goals outcome which is more refined than raw shot attempts.

    But it’s also important to not only have the data but some way to connect it with what’s happening on the ice. Which is where observations like: “until we break down shots per d pair side. Accept that Forward pressure is important 20 ft out” are interesting. That is the sort of thing that might have actual value translating from analytical tool to systems tool.

    There’s a wealth of data out there nowadays but in some ways we’re still scratching the surface of what it means and how to use it. (Especially in areas like stay-at-home d-men, who are the offensive linemen of hockey statistics.) Keep those ideas coming.

    Ricki has been killer with data for year.

    For some reason he can’t wrap his head around that skaters don’t affect SV% and that blows a lot of good work to shit.

    Ricki, I’m begging you to stop.

  194. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    gvblackhawk,

    Continuing the vicious cycle for Eichel.

    Stop that

  195. Woodguy says:

    knighttown: Solid work there Columbo!

    This won’t further this particular conversation but it is relevant so I’ll post it again in the hope that the idea finally gains some traction.
    Teams need to start to look at defensemen numbers 7-11 on the depth chart as much as forwards, 9-12. Even with the flu bug, we’ve yet to call a forward up from the AHL and have only used 14 forwards all season. We’ve already used 9 defenseman.
    Here are some startling stats:
    Jason Strudwick spent the first two games in the PB. In the 11 games since he has played more minutes this season (not average, TOTAL) than Hemsky, Penner, O’Sullivan, Gagner, Cogliano, Moreau, Nilsson, Stortini, Brule and Comrie. Basically, every forward but Horcoff.
    And this guy was an afterthought who gets paid minimum wage and big surprise, he gets killed in scoring chances when he’s out there.
    Taylor Chorney, since he’s been promoted has played more minutes than every forward except Hemsky and Horcoff.
    And this was a guy getting lit up by AAA pitching last year. He’s survived to this point but can it hold up?
    I don’t think I’d get any argument that Jason Strudwick will be more important to this team than Steve MacIntyre but if I’d mentioned he’d have more impact on our team than Ales Hemsky people would say I was nuts. But he has.

    Your “timeless” post was on this, but much more fleshed out.

    Next day or two in line in terms of LT posts or so I hope.

  196. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    If we are in the running for McDavid or Eichel it will get real nasty in oilerville.

  197. Woodguy says:

    Ribs:
    I hope Perron can crack 30 goals this season. So close!

    What the hell is a Chelada?

    Beer and Clam in a can.

    Great drink in the heat when you need the salt.

    Of course its an almost ready-made red eye too.

    Its a thing in Mexico and South West US.

    $2.50 at Albertsons/Safeway for a 25 FLOZ (2.25 beers) of the salty stuff, $5 at the bar.

  198. gvblackhawk says:

    Lois Lowe:
    gvblackhawk,

    Continuing the vicious cycle for Eichel.

    Clever. I think we’ve got a winner here.

  199. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    To your other point Darcy, about “forcing the rebuild” I actually think MacTavish has done an excellent job of forcing nothing.He hasn’t made that one dreadful deal that would set this team back to square 1 like the Isles did with Vanek.If he moves Ekblad for Markov, he will have done that.Even if he moves him for Ehrhoff, I still think it’s a disaster.

    We’re a low 40′s Corsi against our conference and have been now for years.LA, Chicago and San Jose are in the mid to high 50′s and I rate St. Louis pretty high too.Those teams aren’t exactly old.

    They aren’t making up 15 Corgis or 50 standings points (on 4-6 elite teams!) in 2 seasons with or without Ehrhoff.

    I’m a golf guy and the old saying is, you can’t win the tournament on Thursday but you can damn well lose it.Like or lump it, we’re stiiiiiiillllll on Thursday here in YEG.Find a way to get to Friday (46-49% Corgi and 80+ standings points) through organic growth and then, by all means, start looking at windows closing.

    Hall window.Eberle window.Window to what?

    This post made me weep.

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