GAGNER AS A WINGER

I had a conversation yesterday about Sam Gagner. My friend (it was Woodguy, but don’t tell him) feels Sam could handle playing the wing on a skill line, and I do agree his ability to pass, make a pass and think the game could be put in a good light. Playing RW with Hall on LW and (say) Sean Couturier might give the team a nice trio who could score against the soft parade and battle the quality opposition to a draw. But there are questions.

 THE VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMERcorsi rel f mar 26

This is CorsiRel, so the blue is comparing Oiler forwards to other Edmonton F’s. Eakins deployment of his forwards makes sense:

  • he’s asking Boyd Gordon to do the heavy lifting and take the severe zone starts.
  • this allows him to push the skill forwards to 55% or better zone start, and we assume (correctly) the other coach will play his best against them.
  • Gagner is right in there, he’s certainly not a deep Perron but he’s a blue bubble.
  • Ryan Smyth is a beauty.

5×5/60 2013-14

  1. Taylor Hall 2.93
  2. David Perron 2.07
  3. Jordan Eberle 1.86
  4. Sam Gagner 1.61
  5. Nuge 1.59
  6. Yakupov 1.49

We know Gagner was injured this season, so his 5×5/60 number needs to be taken in context. Last season, he delivered 1.84/60. If we’re to justify Sam Gagner as a RW for $4.8M a year, playing a complementary role with impact players, is 1.84/60 enough? Who was he playing with?

Gagner’s WOWY linemates in 12-13 (in minutes):

  1. Magnus Paajarvi 314
  2. Ales Hemsky 300
  3. Nail Yakupov 277
  4. Jordan Eberle 166

If the Oilers dealt Eberle (settle down) in a deal for Sean Couturier, and ran Couturier-Hall-Perron as a tough minutes line and Nuge-Yakupov-Gagner as a soft minutes offensive line, could Gagner post over 2.00/60 at 5×5?

Would that be enough?

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124 Responses to "GAGNER AS A WINGER"

  1. PDO says:

    Woodguy eh?

    You know what they say about the company you keep….

    I think Couturier has had too good of a season to be had.

    The team that looks obvious to me for the Oilers to make a trade with is Winnipeg. They have an excess on the back end and while they’re loaded with two-way forwards they lack pop.

    I think Gagner on the wing would be fine. It appears he’s running out of rope as a C and for good reason.

    Would you trade Eberle and Petry for Little and Dusty Buf?

    Would Winnipeg?

    What if we had to add the 2015 first?

    That would give you a #1 D and a #1C. I’ve watched Little a lot – he’s not far off of Bergeron, and the numbers don’t disagree. Dusty is dusty, though I have a feeling he would drive the BMX biker up the wall.

  2. fifthcartel says:

    Oklahoma City Barons ‏@okcbarons 53m
    NEWS: The @EdmontonOilers have assigned goaltender Frans Tuohimaa to the #OKCBarons > http://bit.ly/1o2eoq7 . pic.twitter.com/8YdrDdoGDQ

    Well, this is interesting.

  3. Lois Lowe says:

    fifthcartel,

    Brossoit probably goes back to the ECHL when Fasth gets healthy.

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    Would that be enough?

    Enough for what?
    My guess is No. But,
    The devil is in the details.

  5. eidy says:

    I don’t think gagner is a great fit for wing on the oilers. I don’t think he battles along the boards strongly enough nor is he great at puck recovery. He definitely is not a fit at centre.

    I suspect that he will show enough to recover some decent trade value. He is young, experienced (although maybe same experience 7 times over), and still plays like he is in junior. He cheats for offence by flying the zone at the first hint of positive and tries too many low percentage passes. We have enough players of ilk.

  6. eidy says:

    What has everyone thought of the call ups. I’ve been impressed by lander. Lots of smart little plays, getting pucks out, on the cycle, etc. his skating is still borderline but there is a player there. Pit lick has been ok too and I think he replaces jones.

    Marincin is manna from heaven and you can see what MacT liked in klefbom

  7. frjohnk says:

    Yeah, I would do it. I don’t think Gagner would get much of a return before July 1st.

    I would like to dangle Eberle, the top pick and one of Marincin and Klefbom for a top pairing Dmen and a top 6 center.

  8. OilClog says:

    Replacing Eberle or Yakupov with Gagner is worse than redundant, not curing any second line needs.

    Nuge – Yak – Dogged Determination.

    Gagner will create no room for those two, and those two aren’t Hall and Perron where he can hold coat tails.

    why is Lander playing second line wings? it should be Pitlick, for both players and the teams sake. I thought we were auditioning for roles now. Hell putting Smyth out there instead and allowing Lander to take all those draws 94 has been taking makes only sense no?

    If Eakins is coach next year I don’t want to hear about VO2′s, marathons, or anything else. If his “new age” systems are in place all I want to hear about is “winning”

    Seriously, watching games is embarrassing now. Seems like every opposing players stats against the Oilers read : 56g 76a 60gp or 18-1-0 .987% 0.66GAA

    Then you pile on the 6ring circus that’s taking place on the ice this year..

    Micheal Douglas – Falling Down.

  9. KSC10032 says:

    IMO — the position Sam plays is less of an issue than the fact that — for he most part — he is an undersized forward playing with two other undersized forwards. (Yes, I know Sam is listed at 202 lbs., but that only means he is lying by a larger margin @ his weight than others are).

    On the current team his default line-mates, with everyone healthy, are Perron and Yak. And that means a trio that gets continuously pushed around by ANA, SJS, etc. Trading Eberle for Coutourier yields a desirable bigger centre, but at a high acquisition price.

    Perhaps we target bigger wings instead? I’ve long wondered if Sam would not be more effective with big linear wingers who’d give him space and time to utilize his strongest assets more effectively. Maybe we can get a better overall player — in a trade — at wing, with the premium on centres? I have to believe that was the primary driver behind MacTavish’s hunt of Clarkson over the summer.

  10. TheOtherJohn says:

    Think WG idea of using Eberle to get us an asset (ie fill a hole) and have Gagner replace 14 on 1RW makes a lot of sense. Not same level of scoring or creativity but not much of a fall off.

    What is a greater shortage top pairing D or a real good 2C?

  11. Cameron says:

    I don’t have an opinion about Gagner on the wing, other than to note that I believe the Oilers brass tried this at one point and found the results to be less than hoped for. As the last line of Cronenberg’s ‘Crash’ says ‘maybe the next time’.

    My issue is with the proposed Eberle to Philly for Couturier trade. I get how it makes sense for the Oilers who have a ‘spare’ winger and look to deal for the 2C with size they covet, but it ignores the fact that Philly is already deep with wingers who have size and 2 way ability (Simmonds, Hartnell, Voracek, B.Schenn), and they have a roster built to allow Couturier room to grow with Giroux at #1C, and Lecavalier as the ‘mentor’ stop-gap #2 until Couturier is ready.

    In short, what makes complete sense for the Oilers makes no sense for the Flyers.

    However, you might be able to ‘aim lower’ and get what you need from the Flyers, just not in the form of Couurier. I’m speaking of their top prospect Scott Laughton.

    If the Oilers were to package a prospect defenseman (Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin – though he isn’t really a prospect anymore) that would satisfy a genuine Philly need without impacting the way their roster is set up. Edmonton gets its 2 way C (albeit at the larval stage) and the Flyers get a D prospect to groom.

    Then you can flip Gagner to Nashville for a young defender (Ellis has always been a favourite of mine and he is logjammed in Nashville), etc.

  12. JustWatt79 says:

    Been thinking almost the same thing for a few weeks. Gagner would be fine on a soft minutes 2 line as RW and not center. He’s better offensively than he’s played this year (because Kassian) and he allows the team to shop Eberle or Yakupov for a much needed piece without handicapping the top 6. My only concern with it is who drives the bus on the second line? Can Yak do it because neither Samwise nor Nuge appear to be river pushers. I think that Yak has it in him but you’d really need to feed that line pillowy soft minutes or else they give up as much/more than they give you.

  13. Ryan says:

    Woodguy and I had this very discussion before.

    Woodguy ironically then provided the data showing that Gagner sucked the hind banana as a winger during the 2009-10 season using wowy data. He additionally sucked as a RW this season.

    Gagner isn’t great as a centre, but he’s worse as a winger. His lack of foot speed, puck retrieval ability, and size don’t make him a particularly effective winger.

  14. PDO says:

    It’s all about value.

    What’s Gagner’s trade value vs Eberle’s?

    What’s Gagner’s value at RW vs Eberle’s?

    Sell high, buy low, retire rich.

  15. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    I don’t watch much of Philly, but isn’t B Schenn their 2C?

  16. Cameron says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    I don’t watch much of Philly, but isn’t B Schenn their 2C?

    Lecavalier is the 2C, with B.Schenn playing mostly on the wing.

    Here are his WOWY stats, someone with better eyesight than mine (curse this phone) can assess if my conclusion is correct or not.
    http://hockeyanalysis.com/HockeyStats/showplayer.php?pid=968&withagainst=true&season=2008-13&sit=5v5

  17. Woodguy says:

    My issue is with the proposed Eberle to Philly for Couturier trade. I get how it makes sense for the Oilers who have a ‘spare’ winger and look to deal for the 2C with size they covet, but it ignores the fact that Philly is already deep with wingers who have size and 2 way ability (Simmonds, Hartnell, Voracek, B.Schenn)

    A few things here.

    1) Schenn plays center. He’s 3rd on the Flyers in faceoffs taken this year.

    2) Here is how PHI is playing their top 3 lines lately:

    HARTNELL GIROUX VORACEK
    LECAVALIER SCHENN SIMMONDS
    MCGINN COUTURIER READ

    Voracek is actually LH and a lot of NHL coaches prefer to play sticks on the boards.

    Lecavalier is having a terrible season (9th in PHI scoring among F) and PHI has him under contract with a NMC for 4 more years.

    Swap Eberle and Couturier and they run:

    HARTNELL GIROUX EBERLE
    VORACEK SCHENN SIMMONDS
    MCGINN LECAVALIER READ

    They probably don’t lose too much at C as Lecavalier has been a good C (as lost as he seems at LW)

    They have more scoring as well.

    So it does make sense for PHI as they have a $4.5MM under performing 2LW (10th in PTS/60 with 1.45…..Gagner has 1.61 btw…..) who will be of more use at C.

  18. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    Lecavalier is the 2C, with B.Schenn playing mostly on the wing.

    No.

    Schenn is 3rd on PHI with 600 draws taken

    Lecavalier is 5th with 366 and a lot of those came at the beginning of the year when they started him at 2C, but moved Schenn there.

    Its not in stone, but Schenn in much more a C than Lavavalier on PHI.

    Their excess in C is what allows them to trade Couturier.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy and I had this very discussion before.

    Woodguy ironically then provided the data showing that Gagner sucked the hind banana as a winger during the 2009-10 season using wowy data.He additionally sucked as a RW this season.

    Gagner isn’t great as a centre, but he’s worse as a winger.His lack of foot speed, puck retrieval ability, and size don’t make him a particularly effective winger.

    The sample size was quite small with Gagner on the wing.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    Gagner isn’t great as a centre, but he’s worse as a winger. His lack of foot speed, puck retrieval ability, and size don’t make him a particularly effective winger.

    Mike Parkatti was giving a lecture at the UofA today about Fancystats in hockey.

    I caught some of it on the web.

    One part I caught was that he was musing the players with “offensive ability” seem to the ones who’s GF% doesn’t regress all the way to their CF%, but stays above it over time, which suggest they score more on the corsi events that they create than the average guy.

    Gagner’s GF% has consistently been above his CF% for 6 years now….

  21. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    The also have Scott Laughton who plays Center. Who looks like he could be in the NHL next year.

  22. G Money says:

    Woodguy: One part I caught was that he was musing the players with “offensive ability” seem to the ones who’s GF% doesn’t regress all the way to their CF%, but stays above it over time, which suggest they score more on the corsi events that they create than the average guy.
    Gagner’s GF% has consistently been above his CF% for 6 years now….

    Exceedingly interesting conclusion. Wish I could have been there, but, you know … work.

    Is it archived on the web by any chance?

    Hey, this post has a Sledgehammer on it. Where’s Art?

  23. gcw_rocks says:

    Why don’t they see if Grabovski hits the market this summer and throw a bunch of money his way?

    Hall -RNH – Eberle (’cause it works for everyone but Eakins)
    Perron – Grabovski – Yakupov.

    Perron and Grabovski can carry Yakupov.

    Or, you can run:
    Hall – Grabovski – Perron as a Power vs Power,line, and
    Yakupov – RNH – Eberle as a soft minutes killer line.

    Then you trade Gagner for whatever you can get and you are still better off.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    Gagner isn’t great as a centre, but he’s worse as a winger. His lack of foot speed, puck retrieval ability, and size don’t make him a particularly effective winger.

    Mike Parkatti was giving a lecture at the UofA today about Fancystats in hockey.

    I caught some of it on the web.

    One part I caught was that he was musing the players with “offensive ability” seem to the ones who’s GF% doesn’t regress all the way to their CF%, but stays above it over time, which suggest they score more on the corsi events that they create than the average guy.

    Gagner’s GF% has consistently been above his CF% for 6 years now….

    That’s a really good point there. Thanks for that WG, didn’t see that part, or if I did hear it, was too busy staring at Parkatti’s awesome suit!!!!

  25. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    However, you might be able to ‘aim lower’ and get what you need from the Flyers, just not in the form of Couurier. I’m speaking of their top prospect Scott Laughton.

    The problem with the Oilers is that they have aimed lower forever.

    Pinning hopes on kids becoming what they need is over.

    Hall is 4 years into his career and 24th is their high note.

    They need Actual NHL Players.

    Putting players in spots above their Actual NHL ability is the recipe for picking top 5.

    It should be done.

    Fin.

  26. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: That’s a really good point there. Thanks for that WG, didn’t see that part, or if I did hear it, was too busy staring at Parkatti’s awesome suit!!!!

    Eberle’s GF exceeds his CF too.

    They are both good offensive players.

    I think Eberle brings you back an Actual NHL top 6 C or a top 3 Dman.

    I think Gagner brings back a 2nd rounder and cold cup of coffee……or Clarkson (that’s being bandied about in TOR by the way)

    I also think that Gagner can product at least 90% of what Eberle does given the same TOI and line mates.

    Given the massive disparity in return on the trade market and much, much,much smaller disparity in offense the choice is very clear.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Of course you could trade both.

  28. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    The also have Scott Laughton who plays Center. Who looks like he could be in the NHL next year.

    Another reason why PHI can give up a C and not feel it too much.

  29. BrazilianOil says:

    Woodguy,

    Could eberle bring you back Johansen from columbus? Is he a better option than couturier?

  30. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Exceedingly interesting conclusion.Wish I could have been there, but, you know … work.

    Is it archived on the web by any chance?

    Hey, this post has a Sledgehammer on it.Where’s Art?

    Michael Parkatti ‏@mparkatti 5h
    Thanks to everyone who came today! The #fancystats lectures are now available at: http://new.livestream.com/aict/mact . PS I wear a blazer.

  31. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Philly is weak at D and LW. Sean Couturier would be a perfect fit for Edmonton.

    Would David Perron make more sense than Eberle ?

  32. BrazilianOil says:

    About Sobotka; is possible st louis have cap issues again this summer and another trade with them is possible? What would be the price? Seems the perfect complement for gordon.

  33. Melman says:

    WG – Haven’t watched Philly play much this year – the game against Van though was probably the most entertaining game I saw all season though. Q: if you are Philly AND are willng to deal C depth for W scoring, do they trade Schenn or Couturier? If it’s Schenn does Edm still make that deal?

  34. Cameron says:

    Woodguy:
    My issue is with the proposed Eberle to Philly for Couturier trade. I get how it makes sense for the Oilers who have a ‘spare’ winger and look to deal for the 2C with size they covet, but it ignores the fact that Philly is already deep with wingers who have size and 2 way ability (Simmonds, Hartnell, Voracek, B.Schenn)

    A few things here.

    1) Schenn plays center.He’s 3rd on the Flyers in faceoffs taken this year.

    2) Here is how PHI is playing their top 3 lines lately:

    HARTNELL GIROUX VORACEK
    LECAVALIER SCHENN SIMMONDS
    MCGINN COUTURIER READ

    Voracek is actually LH and a lot of NHL coaches prefer to play sticks on the boards.

    Lecavalier is having a terrible season (9th in PHI scoring among F) and PHI has him under contract with a NMC for 4 more years.

    Swap Eberle and Couturier and they run:

    HARTNELL GIROUX EBERLE
    VORACEK SCHENN SIMMONDS
    MCGINN LECAVALIER READ

    They probably don’t lose too much at C as Lecavalier has been a good C (as lost as he seems at LW)

    They have more scoring as well.

    So it does make sense for PHI as they have a $4.5MM under performing 2LW (10th in PTS/60 with 1.45…..Gagner has 1.61 btw…..) who will be of more use at C.

    I think you’ll find that the vast majority of Schenn taking face-offs was when Lecavalier was hurt. Once big Vinny came back they moved Schenn back to the wing.

    Indeed, as I recall the reason the Flyers went out to get Lecavalier in the first place is that they weren’t comfortable with Schenn at C and wanted someone they could lean on in tough situations.

    Herre’s a question for you, rather than keep trying to trade for the guy they call ‘The Malkin Stopper’ in Philly, why not target Brayden Schenn? Clearly the Flyers don’t like him as much at C as they do Couturier, and the Flyers could take back a winger for Schenn whereas they might not for Couturier, and I would think he would be cheaper.

    (the answer, I believe, is that Schenn isn’t really a pro C)

  35. Woodguy says:

    BrazilianOil:
    Woodguy,

    Could eberle bring you back Johansen from columbus? Is he a better option than couturier?

    Trying to get Johansen is like trying to get Hall.

    No way he’s available for Eberle.

    What *may* be available at CBJ is the 2C.

    Currently their C’s are:

    Johansen – Untouchable
    Dubinsky – 1 year left
    Anisimov – 3-4 years left (capgeek is down right now)

    They also have Jenner playing decent for a rookiel on the wing and he is a C by trade.

    They ares another team that needs more scoring wingers.

    They’ve been running:

    Calvert
    Atkinson
    Horton
    Foligno
    Jenner
    Umberger

    As their wingers on their top 3 lines, moving around some of them.

    You may be able to pry Dubinsky or Anisimov out of their with the right bait.

  36. Cameron says:

    Woodguy: Another reason why PHI can give up a C and not feel it too much.

    Except that Philly would probably prefer not to push either Schenn or Laughton into a heavy min role at C.

    I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree and let reality determine whether Couturier can be had for an Oiler winger or not.

  37. Rondo says:

    Mitch Moroz having a nice game tonight

    1G 2A so far

  38. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    Cameron: I think you’ll find that the vast majority of Schenn taking face-offs was when Lecavalier was hurt. Once big Vinny came back they moved Schenn back to the wing.

    Indeed, as I recall the reason the Flyers went out to get Lecavalier in the first place is that they weren’t comfortable with Schenn at C and wanted someone they could lean on in tough situations.

    Herre’s a question for you, rather than keep trying to trade for the guy they call ‘The Malkin Stopper’ in Philly, why not target Brayden Schenn? Clearly the Flyers don’t like him as much at C as they do Couturier, and the Flyers could take back a winger for Schenn whereas they might not for Couturier, and I would think he would be cheaper.

    (the answer, I believe, is that Schenn isn’t really a pro C)

    Holmgren traded Richards and Carter. I don’t care what they call him in PHI, he may be available.

    I don’t think Schenn rates nearly as good as what they need, the Oilers need to aim higher.

    Also,

    Schenn is centering Lecavalier tonight. Schenn has 8 FO and Lecav has 2.

    Lecav is not the 2C in PHI.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    Except that Philly would probably prefer not to push either Schenn or Laughton into a heavy min role at C.

    Schenn is their regular 2C.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Have I mentioned who is 2C in PHi?

  41. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Mitch Moroz having a nice game tonight

    1G2Aso far

    He almost scored two other times, too. I like this player, hope he makes it.

  42. Cameron says:

    Woodguy:
    Cameron,

    Holmgren traded Richards and Carter.I don’t care what they call him in PHI, he may be available.

    I don’t think Schenn rates nearly as good as what they need, the Oilers need to aim higher.

    Also,

    Schenn is centering Lecavalier tonight.Schenn has 8 FO and Lecav has 2.

    Lecav is not the 2C in PHI.

    Let me put this a different way. If the Flyers were serious about trading Couturier, is the offer you propose from Edmonton likely to be the best they get?

    For instance, I could see any number of teams offering a C as part of the deal (Calgary could put Backlund into their package for example) as well as offering them something for the defense corps.

    And I agree with a comment you made earlier that the Oilers need ‘players’, not prospects. Unfortunately, wing for C or D trades are all but unheard of.

    More likely (and more productive a route to pursue IMO) would be dealing one of your wingers for a different winger, something like, Eberle + something for Evander Kane + something. Winnipeg gets a higher octane offensive producer with fewer head case issues, while Edmonton gets a scoring winger with size and scrapitude who can bring a variety of utensils to the table.

    Would you do; Eberle and J.Schultz for Kane and Bogosian?

    I might.

  43. Rondo says:

    I see David Perron a better fit in Philly than Eberle

  44. VanOil says:

    Excellent lecture by Parkatti today.

    Gagner as a winger only makes sense if you buy Woodguy’s Couturier obsession (not that there is anything wrong with that), much like there is little wrong with Rom’s Draisaitl or my Kulikov/Nelson obsessions.

    Gagner would be a great winger for his buddy Tavares on the NYI. I have no doubt they would terrorize the Eastern conference. For Edmonton we have 2 right wingers that show at least as much promise as Gagner to be a +GF% player and one (Eberle) who has been a +CF% player in the past. Yak is to raw a talent to guess if he will figure out CF% or not.

    But sure slide Gagner up on over but only if Woodguy’s dreams come true or if it happens else where.

  45. Cameron says:

    Woodguy:
    Cameron,

    Except that Philly would probably prefer not to push either Schenn or Laughton into a heavy min role at C.

    Schenn is their regular 2C.

    So I got frustrated enough with this argument that I called my buddy in Philly for his thoughts. Mostly verbatim or close to it;

    - B. Schenn is the #2 C
    - He got that role when Vinny went down
    - Since Vinny has returned they have continued to let Schenn take the F/Os
    - In my buddy’s opinion Lecavalier isn’t fully healthy yet and he suspects back issues (FWIW)
    - Schenn takes the draws, but assumes a wings position afterwards.

    So there you go. All anecdote, no facts. Schenn is the #2 C just as you insist.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Cameron: Unfortunately, w

    Bogo doesn’t rate high enough.

    Gaborik was traded for 2 centers, Dubinsky and Anisimov, as well as two other pieces.

    I’m hesitant to trade Jultz.

    Jultz’s 4 most common partners in his career: Nultz 806 min, Ference 456 min. Belov 211 min Barbaro 120 min.

    I’d like to see in a role not over his head and with a decent partner before deciding what he is.

    I’d trade Jultz for a clear upgrade, but that’s not Bogo.

    Cameron: So I got frustrated enough with this argument that I called my buddy in Philly for his thoughts. Mostly verbatim or close to it;

    - B. Schenn is the #2 C
    - He got that role when Vinny went down
    - Since Vinny has returned they have continued to let Schenn take the F/Os
    - In my buddy’s opinion Lecavalier isn’t fully healthy yet and he suspects back issues (FWIW)
    - Schenn takes the draws, but assumes a wings position afterwards.

    So there you go. All anecdote, no facts. Schenn is the #2 C just as you insist.

    I follow PHI pretty close. I have a few of them in my keeper league.

  47. VanOil says:

    I hope these stats have no sustainable correlation;

    The Leafs are 1-8 since they introduced Ice-Girls to shovel

    The Oilers have been a pile of suck since they introduced Cheer Leaders

    It seems Americans are learning hockey better than Canadians are learning sex-ploitation.

  48. flyfish1168 says:

    Mitch is killing it tonight. 2g 3a 5 pts. +1

  49. Cameron says:

    Woodguy,

    I suggested Bogo as the ‘Dman with hair on his ass’ component required, and because his age, pedigree, etc. suggest there is still room for him to grow into an all-round two-way force.

    I like Jultz a tonne too (at least as much as a Flames fan can ‘like’ an Oiler), but his D-zone issues are pretty pronounced.

    The deal I suggested would bring more balance to the Oilers while at worst moving sideways in terms of talent moving in and out, while also bringing more balance to the Jets, who could use both a puckrusher and somebody other than Evander Kane to be the go to option up front.

    The Oilers are in a tough spot. They need more players of a higher caliber at every position on the roster, and outside of doing a 2-1 deal where they get back Anisimov and Dubinsky for Eberle, (all names in this proposed trade are placeholders for players of similar rank), moving sideways might be the best thing to do.

  50. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    Excellent lecture by Parkatti today.

    Gagner as a winger only makes sense if you buy Woodguy’s Couturier obsession (not that there is anything wrong with that), much like there is little wrong with Rom’s Draisaitl or my Kulikov/Nelson obsessions.

    Gagner would be a great winger for his buddy Tavares on the NYI. I have no doubt they would terrorize the Eastern conference. For Edmonton we have 2 right wingers that show at least as much promise as Gagner to be a +GF% player and one (Eberle) who has been a +CF% player in the past. Yak is to raw a talent to guess if he will figure out CF% or not.

    But sure slide Gagner up on over but only if Woodguy’s dreams come true or if it happens else where.

    The thing is that Eakins also sees Perron as a RW.

    He listed Perron among the RW that Yak had to compete with when he scratched Yak.

    Perron is playing RW now with Hall.

    Eakins likes sticks on the boards.

    I see Eakins laying out his wingers are:

    LW- Hall, Yak
    RW – Perron, Eberle

    So Yak has the soft 2nd LW and Eberle is the soft 2nd RW, or at least could be.

    That’s one reason I think you can trade Eberle and swap in Gagner, its because you have Perron ahead of him, not Yak behind him.

    Yak’s played most LW in the 2nd half of the season, unless he’s with Hall, then its RW.

  51. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    I hope these stats have no sustainable correlation;

    The Leafs are 1-8 since they introduced Ice-Girls to shovel

    The Oilers have been a pile of suck since they introduced Cheer Leaders

    It seems Americans are learning hockey better than Canadians are learning sex-ploitation.

    I think you’re on to something here.

    Nice bums cause the EyeGlow/60 to crater due to increased GroinRise/60

  52. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    Agreed on most points.

    I have no illusions that Eberle is anywhere near (or ever will be) a guy who brings back multiple quality assets.

    He would bring back a significant improvement at one spot wtihout causing a gaping hole at the spot he’s vacating so I think you have to do it.

  53. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: I also think that Gagner can product at least 90% of what Eberle does given the same TOI and line mates.

    I think this is far from a given.

    Eberle – 0.345 G/gm, 0.448 A/gm, 0.618 P/gm @ 18:25 TOI career
    Gagner – 0.210 G/gm, 0.407 A/gm, 0.792 P/gm @ 17:13 TOI career

    With better linemates comes tougher opposition. I like Gagner, and I joke that I’m lil Wanye, but seriously, Gagner doesn’t get you 90% of Eberle.

    Eberle is a 28 goals/82 games guy over his career.
    Gagner is not (17 goals/82 games).

    Gagner has had plenty of soft minutes, and doesn’t produce 90% of the offense that Eberle does. Gagner is a competitor and I love his spirit, although it’s been tough to like him this year. His trade value is much less than Eberle’s because he is a much less-talented goal-scorer. Both guys pass well.

  54. gcw_rocks says:

    Rondo,

    Philly is weak at D and LW. Sean Couturier would be a perfect fit for Edmonton.
    Would David Perron make more sense than Eberle ?

    Now that would be selling high. Perron is having a career year and yet he is still one good body check away from shuffling around with Chris Pronger. So, if there was a Perron for Couturier deal on the table, the Oilers would be wise to take it.

    But instead, they will wait until he gets his bell rung, and then trade him for pennies on to dollar. You know, because Oilers…

  55. Cameron says:

    Woodguy:
    Cameron,

    Agreed on most points.

    I have no illusions that Eberle is anywhere near (or ever will be) a guy who brings back multiple quality assets.

    He would bring back a significant improvement at one spot wtihout causing a gaping hole at the spot he’s vacating so I think you have to do it.

    I think the only thing we really disagree on is the degree of chance Couturier could be an Oiler. You think there is a chance, and I pretty much don’t (unless the deal is for Hall, The Nuge, or Jultz).

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    It’s always interesting to see what the big pointy heads have to say:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=711003

    features this amazing sentence, which also serves as a paragraph onto itself:

    “The final rankings release will be made released next month.”

    Fantastic.

  57. Pretendergast says:

    Key is to find someone stuck in a roster like seguin or just emerging like schenn. couturier doesnt strike me as creative enough for a top 6 role. Id suggest cody eakin or cody hodgson fwiw on the 2 line, just trying to add names and keep it interesting.

  58. Pretendergast says:

    gcw_rocks,

    This is so true, trade high for what we need, if paajarvi turns into couturier i think everyone is happy on this blog.

  59. jp says:

    Woodguy:

    I also think that Gagner can product at least 90% of what Eberle does given the same TOI and line mates.

    theres oil in virginia: I think this is far from a given.

    Haven’t we already been through this? WG, didn’t you in the end reluctantly agree that Gagner might bring more like 80% of Eberle’s offense? Maybe I’m misremembering.

    I don’t disagree with you, and am definitely on board with taking the higher trade value vs actual value. Just remembering that this argument was thoroughly hashed through not so long ago.

  60. tcho says:

    Woodguy,

    “One part I caught was that he was musing the players with “offensive ability” seem to the ones who’s GF% doesn’t regress all the way to their CF%, but stays above it over time, which suggest they score more on the corsi events that they create than the average guy.
    Gagner’s GF% has consistently been above his CF% for 6 years now….”

    Thanks for passing that along. That’s a neat insight.

  61. frjohnk says:

    Couturier is being talked about as a future Selke candidate by some. I don’t think philly does that eberle trade.

  62. Clay says:

    theres oil in virginia: I think this is far from a given.

    Eberle – 0.345 G/gm, 0.448 A/gm, 0.618 P/gm @ 18:25 TOI career
    Gagner – 0.210 G/gm, 0.407 A/gm, 0.792 P/gm @ 17:13 TOI career

    With better linemates comes tougher opposition.I like Gagner, and I joke that I’m lil Wanye, but seriously, Gagner doesn’t get you 90% of Eberle.

    Eberle is a 28 goals/82 games guy over his career.
    Gagner is not (17 goals/82 games).

    Gagner has had plenty of soft minutes, and doesn’t produce 90% of the offense that Eberle does.Gagner is a competitor and I love his spirit, although it’s been tough to like him this year.His trade value is much less than Eberle’s because he is a much less-talented goal-scorer.Both guys pass well.

    Either I’m reading this wrong, or you have Gagner’s and Eberle’s P/GM switched.

  63. tcho says:

    If the Oilers trade Eberle, I’m hoping they can get a top 2D back, not a centre.

  64. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: features this amazing sentence, which also serves as a paragraph onto itself:
    “The final rankings release will be made released next month.”
    Fantastic.

    So what you’re saying is that Tambo now works in the news department at the NHL?

  65. lance says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    It’s always interesting to see what the big pointy heads have to say:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=711003

    features this amazing sentence, which also serves as a paragraph onto itself:

    “The final rankings release will be made released next month.”

    Fantastic.

    Do you have the google translator set to America?

  66. Thinker says:

    I want you to think long and hard. Then write an article on why you hate Eberle.

  67. jp says:

    Woodguy:

    I think Gagner brings back a 2nd rounder and cold cup of coffee……or Clarkson (that’s being bandied about in TOR by the way)

    So, I know Toronto saved the Oilers from an albatross of a deal by signing Clarkson last summer. No arguments there, but how badly would Toronto have to want to get out of that deal for it to start making sense for the Oilers?

    If they’re looking at moving him and holding onto a bunch of his salary, or buying him out entirely, is there possibly a sensible deal to be made? (both ideas, and the Oilers as an option floated here: http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/what-do-the-leafs-do-with-david-clarkson/)

    Does Gagner and Klefbom for Clarkson and Gardner begin to make sense?
    How about Gagner for Clarkson with 1-1.5M of his salary retained for the duration?

    There’s basically no doubt he’ll fall off a cliff by the end of his deal, but he’s just turning 30 this weekend. He should have a few good years left yet (and I don’t think he’s already gone off the cliff despite his struggles this season). The man does have the 3rd best CorsiRel on the Leafs, even with 35% OZone starts, and led NJ last year too. (awesome side note – he has the worst PDO on the Leafs at 998. The next worst is Colton Orr at 1005, then all the rest of the forwards are better than 1013. Damn. PDO Rel anyone?). His WOWY is solid too. Pretty average this season, but kinda awesome with NJ last year (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=235&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5).

    I’m entertaining all this in large part because we might actually see Clarkson in an Oilers jersey before long whether we like it or now. At the same time if the Leafs hold salary and/or pay in assets to get rid if him it might not be all bad.

  68. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: Trying to get Johansen is like trying to get Hall.

    No way he’s available for Eberle.

    What *may* be available at CBJ is the 2C.

    Currently their C’s are:

    Johansen – Untouchable
    Dubinsky – 1 year left
    Anisimov –3-4 years left (capgeek is down right now)

    They also have Jenner playing decent for a rookiel on the wing and he is a C by trade.

    They ares another team that needs more scoring wingers.

    They’ve been running:

    Calvert
    Atkinson
    Horton
    Foligno
    Jenner
    Umberger

    As their wingers on their top 3 lines, moving around some of them.

    You may be able to pry Dubinsky or Anisimov out of their with the right bait.

    You can’t trade Eberle for Dubinsky with just 1 year left but Anisimov + a 2nd maybe .

  69. Woodguy says:

    Cameron: I think the only thing we really disagree on is the degree of chance Couturier could be an Oiler. You think there is a chance, and I pretty much don’t (unless the deal is for Hall, The Nuge, or Jultz).

    I have no idea if there’s a chance for Couturier, I just think he fits perfectly.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Hammers: You can’t trade Eberle for Dubinsky with just 1 year left but Anisimov + a 2nd maybe .

    Agreed that Eberle is worth more than 1 year of Dubinsky.

  71. Younger Oil says:

    I thinks Ebs could get a really big return, especially from a team who needs offence and has defence, like Nashville. Eberle and a D prospect for Josi and Wilson shouldn’t be too far out of the realm of possibility. I’d also want to trade Gagner for a different player type, someone like Brock Nelson. Then we could draft the best C available at the draft, and give him very soft minutes. Sign Winnik in the offseason and that’s a decent, more varied top 9F, and gaining Josi on D would be gravy.

  72. Woodguy says:

    jp:
    Haven’t we already been through this? WG, didn’t you in the end reluctantly agree that Gagner might bring more like 80% of Eberle’s offense? Maybe I’m misremembering.

    I don’t disagree with you, and am definitely on board with taking the higher trade value vs actual value. Just remembering that this argument was thoroughly hashed through not so long ago.

    Lemme try to find that post.

  73. Hammers says:

    I still think McT needs to concentrate on the 2 “D” we need and our 1st rd pick & Gags should get that .

  74. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: I have no idea if there’s a chance for Couturier, I just think he fits perfectly.

    Isn’t the word out there that Philly wants a top “D” so I don’t think there is any chance he comes here. One exception maybe they would take Ekblad for Couturier if Ekblad falls to us .

  75. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    SSM wins. No points for Platzer or Nurse

    Lazar 2-3-5 as the Oil Kings finally pound the Raiders. Looks like Draisaitl is out. Expect he’ll need a WC game or two to help his draft stock. he may fall in the eyes of scouts as others in playoff races catch their eye.

    Houck no points as Portland spanks the Giants.

    ——-
    Flames came close against ANA, but just lost. no points. too bad a win tonight probably would have sealed their fate as beyond our reach.

  76. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    SSM wins. No points for Platzer or Nurse

    Lazar 2-3-5 as the Oil Kings finally pound the Raiders. Looks like Draisaitl is out. Expect he’ll need a WC game or two to help his draft stock. he may fall in the eyes of scouts as others in playoff races catch their eye.

    Houck no points as Portland spanks the Giants.

    ——-
    Flames came close against ANA, but just lost. no points. too bad a win tonight probably would have sealed their fate as beyond our reach.

    CAL’s score adjusted Fenwick in the last 25 games is over 50%.

    They are miles and miles ahead of the Oilers.

    Gio and Brodie and Backlund oh my!

    http://www.senatorsextra.com/main/numbers-game-on-possession-playoffs-and-paper-tigers

  77. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Woodguy,

    Question. have you took into account that you still have to many small bodies along the wall that don’t get dirty enough to stop the cycle which is killing the Oilers down deep?

    Now, I concede getting better D-man to make better outlets to the wingers will be a night a day difference.

    My thoughts, moving any player off there natural position is difficult, regardless of there natural skill.
    I would prefer the Oilers deal Gagner for immediate help, if it’s penny on the dollars I would consider the move to the wing.

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: CAL’s score adjusted Fenwick in the last 25 games is over 50%.

    They are miles and miles ahead of the Oilers.

    Gio and Brodie and Backlund oh my!

    http://www.senatorsextra.com/main/numbers-game-on-possession-playoffs-and-paper-tigers

    Yea. But the last stretch is < 10 games. In that short a sample anything can happen, esp. when we have a decided goaltending edge.

    That said, I'm not really worried about it. Still a story line for sure is where everyone will end up.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wes Mantooth-11:
    Woodguy,

    Question. have you took into account that you still have to many small bodies along the wall that don’t get dirty enough to stop the cycle which is killing the Oilers down deep?

    Now, I concede getting better D-man to make better outlets to the wingers will be a night a day difference.

    My thoughts, moving any player off there natural position is difficult, regardless of there natural skill.
    I would prefer the Oilers deal Gagner for immediate help, if it’s penny on the dollars I would consider the move to the wing.

    It’s not Gagner’s size that keeps him from winning battles along the wall. It’s his determination to cheat for offence.

  80. VanOil says:

    jp,

    If the Clarkson deal is buyout proof, I recall mc79hockey doing an article on this, because it is signing bonus heavy in the latter years does the same logic apply to retained salaries?

    By no means am I pining for Clarkson but I am curios. I believe a selling/trading team can only retain up to 50% of the salary. If the deal is mainly yearly signing bonuses like this one does that mean that you can only retain the 50% of the salary portion and not the real life or Cap value?

    If so Nonis not only over-payed on price and term, which most GM’s do for UFA’s, but signed a monumentally dumb contract. It looks painful to impossible be bought out nor can it be traded in retained salary transaction. Claskson’s agent was playing chess while Nonis was playing checkers.

    Nonis’s old buddy Tambellini at least had an aversion to no trade clauses maybe the Leafs should hire him.

  81. VanOil says:

    Woodguy: I think you’re on to something here.

    Nice bums cause the EyeGlow/60 to crater due to increased GroinRise/60

    This would be by definition the Fanciest of Fancy Stats. But don’t we all want hard players, or does that not mean what I think it means?

  82. jp says:

    Woodguy:
    jp,

    Ha!, It was 75%

    Edit: Nope, my conclusion was 90%

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/12/hockeys-rockford.html/comment-page-1#comment-281089

    And I thought you came off the 90% in the end, but quite the contrary. You posted this later in the thread:

    Woodguy:
    I may have undershot it with my guess that he replaces 90% of Eberle’s production.

  83. jp says:

    VanOil,

    Good point. It is an extremely bonus heavy deal, and I’m pretty sure you’re right that it would prevent the Leafs from retaining much salary. Nonis is hog tied.

    He’d help the Oilers now, but I’m damn glad Clarkson didn’t sign that offer from the Oilers.

  84. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wasn’t there an image of Bryz staring at an ice girl’s ass going around recently?

  85. VanOil says:

    jp:
    VanOil,

    Good point. It is an extremely bonus heavy deal, and I’m pretty sure you’re right that it would prevent the Leafs from retaining much salary. Nonis is hog tied.

    He’d help the Oilers now, but I’m damn glad Clarkson didn’t sign that offer from the Oilers.

    The first summer after the lost season GMs started shooting themselves in the foot with front-end loaded forever deals. Maybe Nonis is the trend setter in the 50-50 world offering mainly bonus deals. I believe Lecavelier had such a deal which made his buyout very profitable for him so I guess Clarkson’s was not the first. At least TB was able to use an amnesty buy-out, TO has used both of there buy-outs already.

  86. DeadmanWaking says:

    Lowetide,

    Ugh, slideshow. If you took the harmonic mean between This Here Inestimable Blog and LAP Lambert what you’d get is a slideshow.

    It’s not as bad as a nose ring installed in your nose–with a slender but stout chain attached–but it is as bad as being handed a nose ring and being forced to employ it as a monocle through which to peruse the lunch menu at the Louvre.

    Damn. Slideshow. Al Gore, syndicated and serialized. Cornerless carnival corn maze. Fear the carrot, Hammy “Hoover” Hamster.

  87. book¡je says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Wasn’t there an image of Bryz staring at an ice girl’s ass going around recently?

    I googled Bryzgalov and Ice Girl out of curiosity and the only thing I found was This, but I don’t even see Bryzgalov in that picture.

  88. book¡je says:

    All this talk of Gagner at wing is as silly as the suggestions that Cogliano could succeed at wing.

  89. Marc says:

    Re: Clarkson

    I checked the retained salary provisions in the CBA and it looks like they allow for both salary and bonus to be retained, so the the issue that Tyler Dellow has identified in relation to buying out Clarkson’s contract shouldn’t arise.

    I’m inclined to think that Clarkson is worth bringing in if Toronto retain enough salary. The length of the contract is definitely a risk given that it may not be possible to buy it out. But if Toronto eat half his salary, or eat a quarter and give up a player like Gardiner to get him off their books, then it’s worth exploring bringing him.

    There’s some evidence that Toronto’s coaches are misusing him (see Tyler’s recent post) so his numbers could bounce back, and $3M per season isn’t totally unreasonable for a third line winger who takes the Smyth role on the first PP.

  90. Lynas1 says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    I tend to agree. Think it was 2 years ago (poor memory) they had Gagner playing RW. He dudn’t have a goal in like 33 games or something. He’s got offensive upside but I don’t believe he’s the right kind of fit the team needs.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Wes Mantooth-11:
    Woodguy,

    Question. have you took into account that you still have to many small bodies along the wall that don’t get dirty enough to stop the cycle which is killing the Oilers down deep?

    Now, I concede getting better D-man to make better outlets to the wingers will be a night a day difference.

    My thoughts, moving any player off there natural position is difficult, regardless of there natural skill.
    I would prefer the Oilers deal Gagner for immediate help, if it’s penny on the dollars I would consider the move to the wing.

    I think Eberle and Gagner are very similar players on the boards.

    LW – Hall – Yak
    RW – Perron – Gagner

    Hall, Yak and Perron seem to do ok along the wall.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Lynas1:
    Mr DeBakey,

    I tend to agree.Think it was 2 years ago (poor memory) they had Gagner playing RW.He dudn’t have a goal in like 33 games or something.He’s got offensive upside but I don’t believe he’s the right kind of fit the team needs.

    Gagner has played 64 minutes on the wing with RNH

  93. Woodguy says:

    From 2008-2013 Same Gagner played 4482 5v5 min

    Here’s his TOI with players that *probably* played C while he played wing.

    O’Sullivan 255min
    Belanger 191min
    Pouliot 190min
    Horcoff 126min
    RNH 64min
    Comrie 43min
    Broadziak 27min

    If just look from 2010-last year on the list is:

    Gagner 2645min

    Belanger 191min
    Horcoff 92min
    RNH 64min

    That’s 347min out of 2645 or 13%.

    If you think you actually know what Gagner looks like on the wing, you are wrong.

  94. godot10 says:

    New Jersey is cycle team. Toronto is a rush team.

    Clarkson is an absolutely useless hockey player on a rush team, because he got all his points garbage collecting off of New Jersey’s cycle, and he was not the guy doing the hard work on the cycles.

    The Oilers are a rush team at the moment. Eakins is in last place in the Western Conference because he is trying to play a cycle game with players ill-suited to play it. (This incarnation of the rebuild ie effed, because of that.. A good GM and coach would coach the team they have and adjust over time to their preferred style of play as they changed the composition of the team.)

    The OIlers can’t sustain a cycle. Clarkson isn’t particularly helpful in sustaining a cycle. He would be as bad in Edmonton as he has been in Toronto.

    Clarkson would be a star playing with the Sedins (as Burrows was).

  95. theres oil in virginia says:

    Clay: Either I’m reading this wrong, or you have Gagner’s and Eberle’s P/GM switched.

    Yep, good eye. Quick copy and paste. It’s LT’s fault. He’s not paying his web-wench enough to give us table-entry capability.

    ;)

  96. Woodguy says:

    jp: And I thought you came off the 90% in the end, but quite the contrary. You posted this later in the thread:

    I think 90% is safe-ish bet.

  97. jp says:

    book¡je:
    All this talk of Gagner at wing is as silly as the suggestions that Cogliano could succeed at wing.

    Very well said. And a little more on Gagner on the wing in 11-12 to refresh our memory.

    According to Staples (writing in March of that season) Gagner played wing until RNH got injured in game 38 (http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/03/16/sam-gagner-continues-to-show-improved-play-at-centre-for-edmonton-oiles-glasshalffull/).

    But Gagner injured his ankle in camp that year (Sept 25th). It was bad enough to go for an MRI and he had to wear a walking boot for a while. RNH took his spot and he returned to the lineup playing wing on Oct. 22nd. He scored just 2 assists in his 1st 11 games, then missed another week with a bad back (all this from Rotoworld under his player news. Unfortunately I can`t link to the specific page this is all on: http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nhl/2271/sam-gagner).

    Game 38 was Jan 13th 2012 I believe. This is consistent with Gagner`s monthly stats that year – 40-60 faceoffs in Nov and Dec, up to ~150 in Jan, then ~200 in Feb and March (http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/4245/splits/?season=2011). He had ugly months scoring wise in Oct and Nov (18-0-6-6), a solid Dec (12-4-5-9) and start to Jan (5-1-4-5), taking us up to Oilers game 37. He followed that up with mediocre except for a huge Feb which included the 8 point game.

    If you don’t cut Gagner any slack for injury (ankle bad enough to miss a month of hockey AND a bad back) then for sure Gagner’s overall performance on the wing has been really weak. Looks to me like injury did play a big role though. He’s still Gagner, and his weaknesses will still be there, but I don’t see much evidence that he’s been a worse winger than center when healthy.

  98. jp says:

    Woodguy: I think 90% is safe-ish bet.

    Whether it’s 80% or 85% or 90% the logic of the argument still stands.

    We don’t “know”, but I’m pretty sure the Gagner/Eberle trade value percentage is well below 80%.

  99. Woodguy says:

    jp,

    Good stuff.

    That year account for most of his time with C’s in my post above.

    Gagner with C’s that year:

    Belanger 186min
    Horcoff 82min
    RNH 57min

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=399&withagainst=true&season=2011-12&sit=5v5

  100. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy:
    theres oil in virginia,

    Here’s where I compared them in December:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/12/hockeys-rockford.html/comment-page-1#comment-281089

    Thanks for pulling this up. I witnessed that conversation, but had no time to engage. Last night I posted and went to bed, and I haven’t got a lot of time now either, so I apologize.

    Pulling just the last three years of Gagner (not including this year) puts him at 0.246 G/gm. It puts him at 70% of Eberle. It also takes Gagner’s three most productive years. It also doesn’t take into account his age difference. I would suppose that if you wanted to take a subset of the data, you would want the most even subset, which would exclude last year’s, and put Gagner at 0.227 G/gm, which puts him at 66%.

    Your using Hemsky’s effect on Gagner reads like Hemsky is Gazdic and really dragged down Gagner. Do you really think that Hemsky dragged down Gagner? Did Gagner’s opponents get better or worse when away from Hemsky? What about zone starts, game situations, etc? So many variables.

    When Eberle is away from Hall, how does that affect the quality of his accompanying center, his d-men, his other winger? Did he partner up with Hemsky when away from Hall? (Did Hemsky “Gazdic” him too?) Did he partner up with Gagner? So many variables. Looking at WOWY is useful, but I think it’s obvious that it can be misleading. Especially on a disaster-of-a-team like the Oilers have been. The defense especially.

    Have you looked at how Eberle did during the games when Hall was out? I did that at some point, and posted it here, I’ll try to dredge it up. He did pretty well, and I seem to remember that his production drop-off was not a cliff, despite the fact that the team was decimated by injury. If the argument is that Hall is better than Eberle, then “sold”. Hall is the best player on the team. If the argument is that Eberle is ordinary without Hall, then “pass”. Eberle was a draft gem…a real steal. If the question is whether Gagner is some reasonable percentage of Eberle’s production if replacing Eberle, then, yes of course he is. It’s just not 90%. Looks more like 75% at best. He’s not that good of a goal scorer. There’s enough of a body of work by both players that we pretty much know what they are. If you whittle down the data in just such a way, you can pretty much demonstrate any point you want. If your whittling doesn’t match observation, then it’s probably over-whittled. 90% does not match my observations.

    Stating that a player had an unreal shooting percentage and so that data isn’t representative of the player’s ability isn’t quite correct. If a players shoots 19% over a season, then you know that the player is capable of it. Eberle’s median sh% is around 12% and his mean is about 14%, so those are more representative of what he is, but obviously he is capable of shooting 19%. Looks like Gagner is capable of shooting 12.4% and is about an 11% median and 10% mean shooter. Statistics describe, bot predict, so either of those guys could exceed their career numbers and we shouldn’t be surprised, but, statistically speaking, that’s what they are.

    I don’t really buy the element of the argument that Gagner has been dragged down by his defensive duties at center and if he was just a winger, he would score more. Does that match your observation of Gagner? Gagner never met a defensive duty that he couldn’t ignore.

    There’s analysis, and there’s conjecture. The analysis does not show that “if” you placed Gagner into Eberle’s position, then he would produce 90% of Eberle. That’s conjecture. It’s not an unreasonable thing to suggest, but it’s not a given and there are simple arguments against it.

    Now maybe (even if you buy my argument) it doesn’t change your point of “trading Eberle and placing Gagner in his spot is the best asset management”, but I’m not contesting that here. Simply that Gagner == 0.9*Eberle is not a given. So, I’d expect a much bigger drop off if that’s the route taken.

    The best “asset management” argument against trading Eberle is probably his public image and media exposure. The guy’s a gold mine. How many commercials has Gagner done? “Alright Sam, give us a big smile…Ooooh wait, on second thought, look tough.”

    ;)

  101. icecastles says:

    I read the title as “Gagner As A Winner”. Given his look of unimpressed puzzlement in the photo, it gave me a good smile this morning.

  102. theres oil in virginia says:

    theres oil in virginia: I think this is far from a given.

    Eberle – 0.345 G/gm, 0.448 A/gm, 0.618 P/gm @ 18:25 TOI career
    Gagner – 0.210 G/gm, 0.407 A/gm, 0.792 P/gm @ 17:13 TOI career

    With better linemates comes tougher opposition.I like Gagner, and I joke that I’m lil Wanye, but seriously, Gagner doesn’t get you 90% of Eberle.

    Eberle is a 28 goals/82 games guy over his career.
    Gagner is not (17 goals/82 games).

    Gagner has had plenty of soft minutes, and doesn’t produce 90% of the offense that Eberle does.Gagner is a competitor and I love his spirit, although it’s been tough to like him this year.His trade value is much less than Eberle’s because he is a much less-talented goal-scorer.Both guys pass well.

    Addendum to this:

    Gagner has 7 GWG in 473 GP.
    Eberle has 16 GWG in 266 GP. Clutch.

    If Gagner would just buck up and learn how to play center, this would be solved.

  103. Pouzar says:

    theres oil in virginia: Addendum to this:

    Gagner has 7 GWG in 473 GP.
    Eberle has 16 GWG in 266 GP.Clutch.

    If Gagner would just buck up and learn how to play center, this would be solved.

    Luckily, MacT isn’t insane and Gagner = 90% GONE.

    In case people haven’t noticed we have trouble actually scoring goals as well.

  104. theres oil in virginia says:

    Pouzar: Luckily, MacT isn’t insane and Gagner = 90% GONE.

    In case people haven’t noticed we have trouble actually scoring goals as well.

    You SOB, you are not allowed to leave here again! I’ve had to do all the heavy lifting. I don’t have time to actually contribute, I’m supposed to be benefitting here.

  105. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: They are miles and miles ahead of the Oilers.

    You just referenced an article by an individual who believes the flames are in a rebuild!
    Zero cred!

    A team with 1 player under 24 in there top 9 fwd in scoring
    5 29+
    3 24-27
    1 U24

    top 5 D of
    Giordano 31
    Brodie 23
    Wiedman 30
    Smid 28
    Russel 26

    none who will be under 24.

    Calgary! Your shitty veteran team may not suck next year.

    Ken King:
    Were in a rebuild!
    Yeah a Rebuild!
    Thats the ticket!

  106. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia: Addendum to this:

    Gagner has 7 GWG in 473 GP.
    Eberle has 16 GWG in 266 GP.Clutch.

    If Gagner would just buck up and learn how to play center, this would be solved.

    GWG… exactly the kind of thing you show to an opposing GM right before you trade him Eberle.

  107. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: GWG… exactly the kind of thing you show to an opposing GM right before you trade him Eberle.

    Yah, I know, especially the way they credit GWG these days. I don’t remember it always being that way. Still, the guy comes through when you need it. Gagner does too, but I’m guessing he does it at about 75% the rate of Eberle.
    ;)

  108. Woodguy says:

    : Thanks for pulling this up.I witnessed that conversation, but had no time to engage.Last night I posted and went to bed, and I haven’t got a lot of time now either, so I apologize.

    No need to apologize, we all have lives.


    Pulling just the last three years of Gagner (not including this year) puts him at 0.246 G/gm.It puts him at 70% of Eberle.It also takes Gagner’s three most productive years.It also doesn’t take into account his age difference.I would suppose that if you wanted to take a subset of the data, you would want the most even subset, which would exclude last year’s, and put Gagner at 0.227 G/gm, which puts him at 66%.

    Why are you only using goals?

    Point totals are similar, but curious why you are only using goals.


    Your using Hemsky’s effect on Gagner reads like Hemsky is Gazdic and really dragged down Gagner.Do you really think that Hemsky dragged down Gagner?Did Gagner’s opponents get better or worse when away from Hemsky?What about zone starts, game situations, etc?So many variables.

    Yes, tons of variables I’d love to control for, but I can’t.

    What I can do is see how Gagner fared with Eberle’s most common linemates.

    When Gagner is with Eberle’s most common line mates I can’t see the ZS, QC etc changing too much from what Eberle sees, but its not controlled.


    When Eberle is away from Hall, how does that affect the quality of his accompanying center, his d-men, his other winger?Did he partner up with Hemsky when away from Hall?(Did Hemsky “Gazdic” him too?)Did he partner up with Gagner?So many variables.Looking at WOWY is useful, but I think it’s obvious that it can be misleading.Especially on a disaster-of-a-team like the Oilers have been.The defense especially.

    The point of those posts was trying to figure out what Gagner would produce when put in the same situation as Eberle

    To do that you need to look at the WOWY of both players with their common linemates and see how they each do with the same linemates.


    Have you looked at how Eberle did during the games when Hall was out?I did that at some point, and posted it here, I’ll try to dredge it up.He did pretty well, and I seem to remember that his production drop-off was not a cliff, despite the fact that the team was decimated by injury.If the argument is that Hall is better than Eberle, then “sold”.Hall is the best player on the team.If the argument is that Eberle is ordinary without Hall, then “pass”.Eberle was a draft gem…a real steal.If the question is whether Gagner is some reasonable percentage of Eberle’s production if replacing Eberle, then, yes of course he is.It’s just not 90%.Looks more like 75% at best.He’s not that good of a goal scorer.There’s enough of a body of work by both players that we pretty much know what they are.If you whittle down the data in just such a way, you can pretty much demonstrate any point you want.If your whittling doesn’t match observation, then it’s probably over-whittled.90% does not match my observations.

    You are missing the point again.

    Its “what would Gagner do in Eberle’s spot”, not what did Gagner do in his spot compared to what Eberle did in his spot.

    You’re not providing anything but anecdotes.


    Stating that a player had an unreal shooting percentage and so that data isn’t representative of the player’s ability isn’t quite correct.If a players shoots 19% over a season, then you know that the player is capable of it.Eberle’s median sh% is around 12% and his mean is about 14%, so those are more representative of what he is, but obviously he is capable of shooting 19%.Looks like Gagner is capable of shooting 12.4% and is about an 11% median and 10% mean shooter.Statistics describe, bot predict, so either of those guys could exceed their career numbers and we shouldn’t be surprised, but, statistically speaking, that’s what they are.

    Ok.


    I don’t really buy the element of the argument that Gagner has been dragged down by his defensive duties at center and if he was just a winger, he would score more.Does that match your observation of Gagner?Gagner never met a defensive duty that he couldn’t ignore.

    Its pretty well established that C’s have much more responsibility without the puck and need to be in spots that wingers’ don’t.


    There’s analysis, and there’s conjecture.The analysis does not show that “if” you placed Gagner into Eberle’s position, then he would produce 90% of Eberle.That’s conjecture.It’s not an unreasonable thing to suggest, but it’s not a given and there are simple arguments against it.

    Sure its conjecture, but I looked at how Gagner fared with Eberle’s most common line mates and extrapolated from there.

    You looked at goal/game and said “nope”

    Pretty sure you can’t really lecture me about conjecture from a position of authority here.


    Now maybe (even if you buy my argument) it doesn’t change your point of “trading Eberle and placing Gagner in his spot is the best asset management”, but I’m not contesting that here.Simply that Gagner == 0.9*Eberle is not a given.So, I’d expect a much bigger drop off if that’s the route taken.

    No its not a given, but you have provided zero evidence to contest my conclusions.

    Except goals/gm in different situations.


    The best “asset management” argument against trading Eberle is probably his public image and media exposure.The guy’s a gold mine.How many commercials has Gagner done?“Alright Sam, give us a big smile…Ooooh wait, on second thought, look tough.”

    Commercials don’t win hockey games.

    There is no question that it would be immensely unpopular with the fanbase, but you can’t manage a team via fan favorites.

  109. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Addendum to this:

    Gagner has 7 GWG in 473 GP.
    Eberle has 16 GWG in 266 GP.Clutch.

    If Gagner would just buck up and learn how to play center, this would be solved.

    Wayne Gretzky had awful GWG totals.

  110. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: GWG… exactly the kind of thing you show to an opposing GM right before you trade him Eberle.

    Exactly

  111. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Wayne Gretzky had awful GWG totals.

    So, that’s why they traded him! Hehe.

    Thanks for the response above, I’ll do my best to respond during the day today.

  112. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: So, that’s why they traded him!Hehe.

    Thanks for the response above, I’ll do my best to respond during the day today.

    I’m travelling all day starting in about 3 hours so I may not be around to respond.

  113. icecastles says:

    Woodguy: Wayne Gretzky had awful GWG totals.

    91 game winning goals. 14th all-time. This is awful?

  114. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: I’m travelling all day starting in about 3 hours so I may not be around to respond.

    Perfect. That takes the pressure off of me for today. I will take my time later this afternoon/evening and make (hopefully) coherent points and post them here.

  115. Woodguy says:

    icecastles: 91 game winning goals. 14th all-time. This is awful?

    Compared to the other Oilers and in terms of % of GWG to goals.

  116. theres oil in virginia says:

    theres oil in virginia: Have you looked at how Eberle did during the games when Hall was out? I did that at some point, and posted it here, I’ll try to dredge it up. He did pretty well, and I seem to remember that his production drop-off was not a cliff, despite the fact that the team was decimated by injury.

    Alright, I found that post, at least. Here it is:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/08/re-13-14-jordan-eberle-sound-and-vision.html/comment-page-1#comment-245064

    It’s an interesting conversation – I think. It looks like I am at least being consistent in my message, even if I don’t remember all of it. It boils down to: Eberle played a bunch of games without Hall, because Hall was injured, and his numbers dropped off, which is to be expected, since the roster without Hall was ugly. You know, like you-might-have-to-consider-changing-your-name-and-moving-out-of-town-if-she-calls-you-back ugly.

    WOWY is often skewed because it is affected by other variables besides the one player that it is attempting to isolate; therefore, caution should be used when comparing one WOWY drop-off with another WOWY drop-off, because WOWY is much more qualitative than it appears to be. This is especially true given small sample sizes and shitty hockey teams. If the team is relatively balanced, then switching from one scoring line to the next doesn’t subject you to playing with guys who don’t belong in the NHL.

    Also of note from that conversation:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/08/re-13-14-jordan-eberle-sound-and-vision.html/comment-page-1#comment-245104

    “I don’t think that’s the kind of guy you trade” either, LT, unless you are virtually guaranteed to win that trade by virtue of the return. I don’t think MacT thinks so either, and in general, I think that’s why these trades don’t happen often. You can’t afford to lose it.

    More later.

  117. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Why are you only using goals?
    Point totals are similar, but curious why you are only using goals.

    You mean that point totals show a similar story, or that they show the players to be similar?

    I’m using goals because I think that Eberle’s value comes primarily from goals. He’s a very good passer too, and so is Gagner, but if you are taking Eberle out and plugging Gagner in, then Gagner has got to come close to matching Eberle in goals or it’s a bust. When I think of Eberle, I almost exclusively think of the goals he has scored, and I think most others do to. I figure that’s because that’s the bulk of his worth to the team.

    I think that goals are a bit cleaner than assists when using them as a measuring stick. I think using goals cuts down on the noise. I also see a lot of comments regarding the lesser value of 2nd assists, as an example of this thinking. If you score a goal, then at the very least you had to be in the right position to receive the pass, and at most you made the play completely by yourself.

    Also, LT won’t let us (boo-hiss) post formatted tables, so I cut down on the information I was posting for cleanliness. Finally, Gagner is a fine playmaker, so you won’t get any argument from me about that aspect of the comparison.

  118. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Its pretty well established that C’s have much more responsibility without the puck and need to be in spots that wingers’ don’t.

    Yes, but it’s Gagner we’re discussing here! Like I said, “He never met a defensive duty that he couldn’t ignore”. We’ve all witnessed it, repeatedly. He’s basically played like a winger for years. So, my point here is that you can’t really use the “center responsibilities” argument with Gagner.

    Commercials don’t win hockey games.
    There is no question that it would be immensely unpopular with the fanbase, but you can’t manage a team via fan favorites.

    This was really just put in for some comic relief. My only serious point here is that there is the marketing side to think of, and you better believe they think of it. It is important, although, you’re right, it’s not relevant to the on-ice product. Not really relevant to the argument either.

  119. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy:
    To do that you need to look at the WOWY of both players with their common linemates and see how they each do with the same linemates.

    You are missing the point again.
    Its “what would Gagner do in Eberle’s spot”, not what did Gagner do in his spot compared to what Eberle did in his spot.

    I’m not missing the point, I’m disagreeing with how far you’ve carried the exercise and I’m suggesting that it’s farther than these numbers should be taken. I discussed that in a previous post.

    I’m not suggesting that “you’re wasting your time”, or that “you can’t do that”; it’s your time to spend how you please and you can bloody-well do what you want. Anyway, I always find your numerical adventures to be interesting, even if I don’t agree with the outcome. I also have a lot of respect for how you can go to these various databases and pull out the numbers that you are looking for to support your idea. You’re a very creative thinker; something that I generally am not. My intellectual thoughts are usually very dry.

    Sure its conjecture, but I looked at how Gagner fared with Eberle’s most common line mates and extrapolated from there.
    You looked at goal/game and said “nope”
    Pretty sure you can’t really lecture me about conjecture from a position of authority here.

    No its not a given, but you have provided zero evidence to contest my conclusions.
    Except goals/gm in different situations.

    Not trying to lecture you. Sorry it came off that way.

    “Gagner can provide 90% of Eberle’s production” has become canon. That’s most of my objection. Something that isn’t a given is being treated as a given. It also doesn’t seem likely to be true IMO. In the end, it’s all just a thought exercise that has no bearing on the outcome, and not something to get worked up over, so don’t take my comments as high drama.

    Your numbers are Gagner’s and Eberle’s from “different situations” too. You’ve made an attempt to correct for those differences. I’m suggesting that the correction is inadequate/inappropriate and I’ve stated my reasons why.

    I don’t think I’ve provided zero evidence. What you have provided above isn’t any more or less evidence than what I’ve provided. (Although, you’re process is fancier, for sure.) I’ve thrown some numbers out and you have too. Neither is conclusive, that’s part of my argument. My numbers are aggregate, without any attempt to refine them or qualify them. I’ve given justification for the use of those numbers, as have you for yours. I’ve provided anecdotal evidence along with those aggregate numbers, to give context to my position, and I’ve raised plenty of objections to going any farther than that with the numbers. I think they are leading you astray. I also don’t think there’s any reason to go farther than those aggregate numbers.

    The aggregate numbers give you a very good picture of Eberle and Gagner. Eberle’s a very good goal scorer. When he plays with other good players, he’s probably good for about 28 goals over an 82 game stretch. Gagner has played with good players over the years too. He’s good for about 17 goals over an 82 game stretch. I don’t think the situations that they’ve each played in are so different from each other – they’ve both played with talent (for the most part) and with about the same attention to defense. There’s no need to look farther and the numbers needed to make the appropriate corrections aren’t available (IMO).

  120. Bushed says:

    The only move I want to see with Gagner is a move to another team.

    No real growth or progress in his thinking of the game after seven years.

    Enough already.

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