After one of the more difficult days of Oiler fandom in recent history, we can move on to the next mind-blowing horror. The deadline past, we can focus on the offseason after a quick look back at yesterday.
TRADE DEADLINE VALUE TABLE
- Ales Hemsky: First-round draft pick (or a second and a fourth). **third and a fifth**
- Nick Schultz: A third round pick. **fifth round pick**
- Ilya Bryzgalov: A fourth round pick. **correctly predicted value**
It was a weird deadline for value (Dustin Penner for a fourth, Nick Schultz and Mike Weaver both fetching fifths), and that 2015 third-round pick might end up looking more like a second rounder by the time things roll out. However, I’d say the overall return on these three veterans should be described as less than expected compared to the going rate during deadline week.
OILERS 2014 DRAFT PICKS
- #2 overall (first round)
- #91 overall (fourth round, this is the Bryzgalov return)
- #116 overall (fourth round, this is the Mike Brown return)
- #128 overall (fifth round, this is the first pick of the Ales Hemsky return)
- #136 overall (fifth round, this is the Nick Schultz return)
- #152 overall (sixth round)
- #182 overall (seventh round)
Using Central scouting as an estimate, the Oilers draft board might look like this on that warm Saturday night:
- D Aaron Ekblad
- D Aaron Irving
- C Colby Cave
- G Jonas Johansson
- C Teemu Lamsa
- C Mason Blacklock
- G Justin Paulic
That’s kind of all over the map and the CS list is always wonky, but it’s fun to look at the names and check out their stories. I think they’re taking Ekblad, ladies.
The deadline is past and we can begin to look forward to the offseason. The talent that might be available to the Oilers to fill holes is more likely to appear via trade than free agency.
- Taylor Hall $6M
- Jordan Eberle $6M
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins $6M
- Sam Gagner $4.8M
- David Perron $3.8125M
- Boyd Gordon $3M
- Matt Hendricks $1.85M
- Nail Yakupov $.925M ($2.85M w/bonus)
- Andrew Ference $3.25M
- Martin Marincin $.730M
- Viktor Fasth $2.9M
- Ben Scrivens $2.3M
Capgeek has the signed men at $45,507,000 and the payroll estimate is $71M. We’re hearing it won’t be that high, so let’s go with $68M as an estimate for now, and then we’ll be pleasantly surprised if the number is better.
RFA’S AND THEIR ESTIMATES
- Luke Gazdic $.700M
- Jeff Petry $3.5M
- Justin Schultz $4.0M
I’m terrible at these things, but let’s assume the totals are close. We’re up to 15 players (65% of the roster) and $53,707,000 and with some holes to fill. The roster as listed here includes two goalies, four defenders, three centers, four left-wingers and three right-wingers. The shopping list is a #1D, a #2D, a depth D, two centers and one left-winger and two right-wingers. Let’s see if we can find anyone from the in-house UFA’s and the minor leagues to fill these spots.
UFA’S AND MINOR LEAGUE ADDITIONS (VALUE CONTRACTS)
- Anton Lander $.800M
- Tyler Pitlick $.900M
- Oscar Klefbom $.895M
Now we’re up to 18 players (and honestly you could put Arcobello, Horak and Fedun there and it might be better, this is my estimate). The dollar total in my estimate is up to $57,302,000, leaving about $12M for five players: #1D, #2D, 2line C, a 3line L and a 3line R.
- #1D Brooks Orpik $5.5M
I know you’re wailing at the computer screen, but this isn’t to argue specific players it’s to see if we can go shopping and find all of the required ingredients on this budget. So, estimating Orpik accepts a long term deal with Edmonton, we can move on with $6.5M left in the budget and four players to go.
- 3L Dustin Penner $2.3M and Daniel Winnik $2.3M
Again, let’s not go crazy with names, we’re just trying to make this work within the budget. We’ll tweak the template later. Okay, we’ve given healthy raises to both players and used up the rest of our money. It now stands at 21 players, $66,407,000 and we’re really close to the cap. The final two players (as I’ve broken them down) are #2D and #2C. Let’s list the roster and see if we can find areas to improve.
- G Ben Scrivens
- G Viktor Fasth
- D Brooks Orpik
- x (Anton Belov)
- D Martin Marincin
- D Jeff Petry
- D Andrew Ference
- D Justin Schultz
- D Oscar Klefbom
- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
- x (Mark Arcobello)
- C Boyd Gordon
- C Sam Gagner
- C Anton Lander
- L Taylor Hall
- L Nail Yakupov
- L Dustin Penner
- L Luke Gazdic
- R Jordan Eberle
- R David Perron
- R Daniel Winnik
- R Matt Hendricks
- R Tyler Pitlick
If you kept Gagner and filled in the final two vital peices internally opening night and near the cap would be:
Okay, we can get some extra dollars by trading Sam Gagner and his $4.8M contract, but there’s absolutely no way that the club will get full value. Also, there is the first round pick, which could be #1 overall. Finally, there’s all those defensive prospects. So there’s some room to move but it’s not going to be easy.
- Deal Gagner for something useful
- Deal 1st rd pick plus something for a lower pick in the top 10 and something useful
- Deal a combination of the above and a quality defensive prospect for something useful
Alright, this is the first working attempt at this. Let me have it!
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
- Dennis King, Oilogopshere icon. We’ll talk about Hemsky’s legacy and the responsibility of management during the failing years.
- Murray McCourt, from the Ranch. The Golf Show is in the city this weekend, we’ll get a preview.
- Ryan Pike, Flames Nation and the Hockey Writer. Calgary made some good moves yesterday, but not the expected one.
- Harrison Mooney, Puck Daddy and Pass it to Bulis. The Canucks. Lordy.
10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. A lot of the show will be your reaction so chime in!