OILERS AT WILD G66, 13-14

Oilers fans should see two important parts of the future on display tonight against Minnesota. Goaltender Viktor Fasth is expected to make his Oiler debut, and defenseman Oscar Klefbom may play in his first NHL game. On December 27th the Oilers were 39GP, 12-24-3. In the 26 games since, Edmonton is 10-11-5. In their last 10: 5-3-2. If Edmonton loses tonight, they will be the first NHL team to lose 20 games on the road this season. Speaking of road games, after tonight the Oilers will have only six road games left. 10 of their last 16 are at home.

g last 10 ma 11In the bizarre world of being an Oiler fan, Ben Scrivens is costing Edmonton Aaron Ekblad with his play! Of course, that’s ridiculous, but you’ll find a segment of the fanbase wishing for the days of Devan Dubnyk. Speaking of, I’m surprised so many assume Dubnyk’s NHL career is over. If you look at the history of the game, there are tons of players who experience blips in their career and recover. My guess is Dubnyk ends up with a better team, spends a prolonged period in the AHL, gets himself straightened out and plays a couple of years as a flat out bargain before getting a real payday again.

oilers last 10 ma 11There are some slumps going on here. The Nuge is certainly the player all are pointing too, but Jordan Eberle isn’t at his usual level and you’d like to see Yakupov more involved, too. Taylor Hall earns his nickname (“Chance”) even in a 10 game stretch where nothing is happening (Hall has been a part of 10 out of 18 goals scored during this period, or 55%).

JONATHAN QUICK TALKS SCRIVENS

scrivens common

  • Quick via  Canadian Press talks Scrivens: “He has done it all year, he did it with us too. I think he is just what this team needed here in Edmonton. He consistently gives you a solid effort and a chance to win every night. We put 50 shots on him and they still had a chance at the end there. For a few years now I think it is an area the Oilers needed improvement, not to knock the goalies they had before. The team defence could be better as well. But (Scrivens) has really stepped in since he came here and given them a chance to win every night.”

 THE RACE FOR FIRST OVERALL

standings mar 11Buffalo looks locked in for first overall (pending lottery) and Edmonton is a good bet for #2 or #3 overall. They could catch Calgary and the Islanders if those two teams dive, but that seems unlikely. The team to watch here is Vancouver, who have had their heart removed. By the way, there are FIVE Canadian teams in this group. I think the Oilers take Ekblad, Draisaitl or Bennett, but may deal down if the defender is gone.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

hurdle gifA busy show today, as we get ready for the Oilers/Wild and NFL free agency. Scheduled to appear on TSN 1260 beginning at 10:

  • Alan Hull, Copper and Blue. Nuge struggles, Klefbom debuts, is Justin Schultz learning?
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings pbp on TSN 1260. OK are winding down the regular season, but there’s still a race going on.
  • Steve Dangle, Leafs Nation. A big win for the Leafs last night, looks like they’ll secure a playoff spot early. Can they finish ahead of the Habs?
  • Matt Verderame, SB Nation, Arrowhead Pride and Yahoo. NFL free agency starts today, who’s going where? Revis to Eagles?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. It’ll be fun!

 

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288 Responses to "OILERS AT WILD G66, 13-14"

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  1. David says:

    Would it be the worst decision to keep Gagner around? He’s been playing much better of recently. Wouldn’t be surprised if he returns to norm next season. I certainly would keep him unless an actual replacement that’s an improvement can be found.

  2. B S says:

    icecastles: Totally valid point.

    I guess I’m just tired of seeing every lazy play, every failed stick check, blamed on the coach regardless of whether it is specifically coaching-related.It’s not as bad as the “because Oilers” meme that’s taken hold here, but it seems to have become a shorthand for general bellyaching and a need to find a singular source on which to blame the numerous failings of this team.

    That’s more than fair. Personally I’m just sick of this team doing worse under Eakins than Krueger, despite clear upgrades in on the roster. Plenty complained about Krueger, but the things he did right (fast paced practices, successful powerplay, letting the kids score goals) are the things Eakins is currently doing wrong. While the systems play that was supposed to be Krueger’s achille’s heal has shown no improvement under Eakins.

    In the vast history of colossally stupid decisions by Oilers’ management/ownership, firing Krueger for Eakins could end up being the worst decision ever. I didn’t like the decision from the start, but I’ve tried to be patient. It’s starting to wear thin.

  3. Rebilled says:

    Ladies and gentlemen, your 10 minute Oilers.

  4. icecastles says:

    book¡je,

    It’s a depressing and troubling thought indeed.

    I think Hemsky is a slightly different animal because (a) he was developed under a good coach and eventually became overwhelmed by the combination of team losing and his lessened role; and (b) I don’t think two good games on a new team are enough of a window to say he will be a grand success elsewhere. He may be, but I’m reserving judgement on that.

    I recall when we all discussed Cogliano having had three consecutive strong rookie seasons; the idea being that he had some great tools, but the progression never happened. Now that he’s with a new team, we’re finally seeing that progress and evolution from potential into what LT so aptly refers to as a ‘real’ NHL player. If I were to dig down, I’m sure there would be more than a few other examples from recent years.

    Eberle, Yakupov, Schultz, and to a much lesser extent RNH and Hall have struggled to build on the skillsets that made them such high draftees, beyond what age, maturity and experience will grant any skilled player. That is entirely on the coaches of their formative NHL years.

    I am clinging to the belief that this year is very much a tear it down and start from scratch season. I’ve said many times this year that this is a painfully slow and difficult task, as it requires unlearning bad habits before good ones can be learned, and those are the cases where there is no choice but to get worse before you can get better.

    Eakins may eventually be revealed to be as awful as nearly everyone is saying and I recognize I’m an ever-shrinking minority. But I am still going to reserve judgement if for no other reason than the fact that I have nothing more than entertainment and happiness (okay and a few jerseys) invested in the Oilers, and happiness is completely on me to establish. So I’ll stay obliviously happy and optimistic.

    EBERYAY! See? Happy and optimistic works! Woo woo woooo!

  5. Pouzar says:

    OVERPAID!

  6. Henry says:

    Heatley skates like he is my age, 45.

  7. David says:

    Lander on his way up?

  8. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Heatly is playing?
    Hmm Cooke involved in hurting someone.
    Arco… Bello

  9. theres oil in virginia says:

    gvblackhawk: Eberle is a RW.When the defense collapses he is responsible for the right side of the slot.He was way out of position and practically standing still when Pominville shot the puck.

    And ‘he had no chance’ is an expression that I disagree with.If his skate blades were attached to his boots at the time, then he had a chance.

    I took you through the whole play above. I watched it several times to make sure I got it right. There was never a collapsing defense, just a defensive collapse (ha!). When the puck entered the zone, it was Eberle who was covering the man and he was the deepest Oilers player. So yeah, he was out of position from the start – covering for the defense. There was never any defensive formation on that play, which was most of the problem.

    C’mon man, your last PP is not worth an argument.

  10. B S says:

    jp,

    I’ve been extremely leery of shot metrics as descriptors of success. Bad angle shots and dumps on net count just as much as onetimers from the slot. Krueger’s pp had a lot more of the latter by eye, Eakin’s pp seems to have more of the former two. Dumps on net are fine if you’re winning faceoffs, but the former don’t help much at all. More shots from the point, and more men down low opens up the middle allowing the prime scoring opportunities. The 1-3-1 that Eakins is using is better for a bigger rougher team that can push defenders around and screen the goalie.

    Late bullsh!t hit by Cooke, someone end his career (preferably league disciplinarians).

  11. Rebilled says:

    Our goalies are pretty damn good.

  12. jp says:

    So Fasth has been kinda excellent for the last 40 minutes.

  13. Lowetide says:

    15:19 an assist and even on the night for the kid. Nice.

  14. jp says:

    Kitchener:
    There’s something off about the team’s motivation this season.At times they play totally flat, then they get a goal or two and start to fly, win battles, complete passes, feet keep moving, etc.I don’t know what the solution is (or where the problem lies), but if there’s something I’d like to see it’s an assistant coach addition who somehow inspires a more consistent enthusiasm.

    Not work ethic.Enthusiasm.

    Was that not a major issue last year too? Maybe it’s worse this year, but to my memory is was a big item last year as well (though the memory isn’t always accurate on these things). Either way I agree it is damned frustrating.

  15. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Lowetide,

    And no injuries!

  16. book¡je says:

    icecastles:
    book¡je,

    It’s a depressing and troubling thought indeed.

    I think Hemsky is a slightly different animal because (a) he was developed under a good coach and eventually became overwhelmed by the combination of team losing and his lessened role; and (b) I don’t think two good games on a new team are enough of a window to say he will be a grand success elsewhere. He may be, but I’m reserving judgement on that.

    I recall when we all discussed Cogliano having had three consecutive strong rookie seasons; the idea being that he had some great tools, but the progression never happened. Now that he’s with a new team, we’re finally seeing that progress and evolution from potential into what LT so aptly refers to as a ‘real’ NHL player. If I were to dig down, I’m sure there would be more than a few other examples from recent years.

    Eberle, Yakupov, Schultz, and to a much lesser extent RNH and Hall have struggled to build on the skillsets that made them such high draftees, beyond what age, maturity and experience will grant any skilled player. That is entirely on the coaches of their formative NHL years.

    I am clinging to the belief that this year is very much a tear it down and start from scratch season. I’ve said many times this year that this is a painfully slow and difficult task, as it requires unlearning bad habits before good ones can be learned, and those are the cases where there is no choice but to get worse before you can get better.

    Eakins may eventually be revealed to be as awful as nearly everyone is saying and I recognize I’m an ever-shrinking minority. But I am still going to reserve judgement if for no other reason than the fact that I have nothing more than entertainment and happiness (okay and a few jerseys) invested in the Oilers, and happiness is completely on me to establish. So I’ll stay obliviously happy and optimistic.

    EBERYAY! See? Happy and optimistic works! Woo woo woooo!

    I fully agree. If I were in charge, I would keep Eakins around until next year. However, i would do so with some trepidation.

  17. SK Oiler Fan says:

    what a smart play by Marincin there

  18. Kitchener says:

    jp,

    Last year it seemed that the motivation was great but the tactics stunk, but my observations are about as scientific as a peanut butter sandwich.

    Bottom line: when the Oil fly, boy do they fly.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Taylor Hall. Lordy.

  20. SK Oiler Fan says:

    man, Marincin looks confident at 4 vs 4

  21. Pouzar says:

    Yo Eakins……it’s 85……he can do some offensive sh!t yo.

  22. theres oil in virginia says:

    Petry trying to “out-soft” Eberle tonight. Crushing hit.

  23. Ryan says:

    book¡je: I fully agree.If I were in charge, I would keep Eakins around until next year.However, i would do so with some trepidation.

    I honestly think Eakins is part of the problem. He will be here next season, but when he face plants, he’ll get the gas pipe.

  24. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    Taylor Hall. Lordy.

    I know. I was watching and thinking: “why are you still skating forward without the puck!?…oh, you’ve got the puck. holy cow.”

  25. icecastles says:

    jp: Was that not a major issue last year too? Maybe it’s worse this year, but to my memory is was a big item last year as well

    It was. the biggest criticism leveled against Kreuger (along with the alleged lack of systems play) was that for a motivational speaker, the team looked brutally unmotivated at least as often as not. It’s been a heavily discussed issue basically since Smyth’s trade to the Islanders, but memories are short.

  26. gvblackhawk says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    If there is one thing we can agree on: Ebs has some serious skill.

  27. Pouzar says:

    Stone Cold Killer!

  28. gvblackhawk says:

    jp:
    So Fasth has been kinda excellent for the last 40 minutes.

    He’s is also very true to his name.

  29. delooper says:

    So the Oilers are starting to win a decent percentage of their games now. Neat.

  30. David says:

    So is it safe to like the Oilers on this blog now?

  31. Rebilled says:

    I missed the 1st!

  32. SK Oiler Fan says:

    10 minutes of hockey plus unreal skill in the skills competition = no Ekblad

  33. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well I didn’t see that coming after watching that first period.

    If NHL games were 15 or 20 minutes in length we’d be in first place-that’s all these guys seem capable of playing at a high level.

  34. Kitchener says:

    David:
    So is it safe to like the Oilers on this blog now?

    You’re fired.

  35. Ryan says:

    I wanted The wild to grab the two points until the Cooke hit. After that hit, it was forget about Ekblad…

  36. David says:

    Greg Chase with 2 more assists so far tonight.

  37. wheatnoil says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    If NHL games were 15 or 20 minutes in length we’d be in first place-that’s all these guys seem capable of playing at a high level.

    Only if you play 40 minutes of warm-up first!

  38. Lowetide says:

    David:
    So is it safe to like the Oilers on this blog now?

    Let’s see how this turns out.

  39. Henry says:

    David:
    So is it safe to like the Oilers on this blog now?

    I tried that before. Painful result.

    I think the australian hurdler brings good things to the oilers.

  40. Pouzar says:

    So we have a goalie tandem now eh….kewl. One less thing for MacT to worry about.

  41. theres oil in virginia says:

    gvblackhawk:
    theres oil in virginia,

    If there is one thing we can agree on:Ebs has some serious skill.

    No argument there, bro!

    Gerta Rauss:
    Well I didn’t see that coming after watching that first period.

    If NHL games were 15 or 20 minutes in length we’d be in first place-that’s all these guys seem capable of playing at a high level.

    I thought this was one of their better efforts. They played the full 60, it’s just that some mistakes, followed by bad bounces got ‘em in the first. I was pretty disappointed when they fell behind, and I was thinking “here we go again” where they put in the effort, carry the play (at least somewhat) and then give up goals and lose heart. Not tonight. They never quit. Good job boys.

  42. wheatnoil says:

    If the Oilers can clone Marincin then that’ll go a long ways to helping the back-end next year.

    Wait… this Gernat guy looks awfully similar…

  43. frjohnk says:

    Im really liking the Scrivens and Fasth additions. Even if the team is outplayed, these goalies give the guys a chance EVERY night to win the game.

    Now if the oilers ever played with some consistentcy, this could be a good team.

  44. stevezie says:

    icecastles,

    I agree!

  45. icecastles says:

    Rebilled: I missed the 1st!

    It’s okay, so did the Oilers.

    SK Oiler Fan: 10 minutes of hockey plus unreal skill in the skills competition = no Ekblad

    If someone were to ask me if there is a wrong way to cheer for a hockey team, I would point to that comment right there.

    We have THREE first overall picks. Two great goalies now. Some decent depth on defense prospects. How many f*&#ing draftees do you need before you want to see them start winning the GD hockey games?

  46. Bling says:

    Yesssssss!

    Not sure I’d blame the Oilers for being lethargic tonight.

    The Wild, as you all know, are a garbage hockey team and probably a risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea. They looked bored with themselves!

    Loved Parise’s quote about coaches ruining hockey. Why’d you sign with the most boring team in hockey, dummy?

    Well glad the Oilers stuck it to them, corgis be damned.

  47. jp says:

    David:
    So is it safe to like the Oilers on this blog now?

    Not safe, but I don’t think you’re alone.

  48. Pouzar says:

    Marty the Martian is sandbaggin the Offensive skills. That Hall setup in OT was a beauty.

  49. Nuckout says:

    I didn’t watch the game tonight, but how did Klefbom look? Was he doing all the little things well? An assist in your first game is a good sign.

    God. This season is like that round of golf where the first 8 holes are shit, and then you finish the last 11 at seven under.

    Would have been a great round, except you know, the first half.

  50. dangilitis says:

    RexLibris,

    RexLibris:
    This was in Matheson’s Q and A article today: “QUESTION: Jeff Petry needs to be scratched for a few games. He’s becoming the next Tom Gilbert and we all know how that turned out. (Scott Mark) ANSWER: You’re not the first guy who has used the Petry/Gilbert comparison.”

    Yes, we do know how that Gilbert thing worked out. We traded a very good defenseman for Nick Schultz, who was unceremoniously jettisoned at the trade deadline, while Gilbert has been lauded as a bargain contract and resurgent player this season.

    Why on earth would you want more Tom Gilberts?

    While I agree with you about Tom Gilbert, you just completely took his quote out of context.

    That first line and paragraph was in response to a misinformed oiler fan, whose question stem suggested petry was not a hockey player. I hope you read past the first few words, however, because Matheson basically suggested that the two have similar backgrounds and experiences that brought them to their position on the oilers where they were counted on as top minute defenseman.

    He then goes on, not to offer an opinion on Gilbert, but rather to offer his take on Petry, which I thought was quite sensible. Eg that he is a good defenceman even on a good team, just not as a top pairing spot. For all the shit that Matheson takes on this site that is deserved, your quote of his was taken out of context and while he may have an opinion of Gilbert that we don’t like, that was not the point of the response, which was a sensible defense of petry, sharing his opinion of him, one which is actually echoed by most of the readers on this site.

  51. sliderule says:

    Klefbom played a very nice game after some early shaky moments.

    He and Marincin cover the front of net in similar style .They get a stick on the guy and stay with him.

    They must have been coached that way in OK city.

  52. dangilitis says:

    Bling:
    Yesssssss!

    Not sure I’d blame the Oilers for being lethargic tonight.

    The Wild, as you all know, are a garbage hockey team and probably a risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea. They looked bored with themselves!

    Loved Parise’s quote about coaches ruining hockey. Why’d you sign with the most boring team in hockey, dummy?

    Well glad the Oilers stuck it to them, corgis be damned.

    I read that quote too and thought the same :) especially from a guy who likes to score. I can’t remember what his production had been like since signing, but can’t imagine it had been as good as during his time as a devil (I recall him passing 90 pts?), which was also a bit of a stifling environment

  53. sliderule says:

    dangilitis,

    Unfortunately Matty is probably echoing what he hears from at least some of management or assistant coaches.

    It’s a very bad sign for Petry in Edmonton.

  54. Ryan says:

    icecastles: It’s okay, so did the Oilers.

    If someone were to ask me if there is a wrong way to cheer for a hockey team, I would point to that comment right there.

    We have THREE first overall picks. Two great goalies now. Some decent depth on defense prospects. How many f*&#ing draftees do you need before you want to see them start winning the GD hockey games?

    Why do you hate Ekblad so much? :)

  55. Ryan says:

    sliderule:
    dangilitis,

    Unfortunately Matty is probably echoing what he hears from at least some of management or assistant coaches.

    It’s a very bad sign for Petry in Edmonton.

    C’mon man,we need more ‘Frasier’ and less Petry ;)

  56. fifthcartel says:

    Marincin looked so solid in OT.

  57. icecastles says:

    Ryan: Why do you hate Ekblad so much?

    He reminds me too much of that bastard Smid.

  58. jp says:

    B S:
    jp,

    I’ve been extremely leery of shot metrics as descriptors of success. Bad angle shots and dumps on net count just as much as onetimers from the slot. Krueger’s pp had a lot more of the latter by eye, Eakin’s pp seems to have more of the former two. Dumps on net are fine if you’re winning faceoffs, but the former don’t help much at all. More shots from the point, and more men down low opens up the middle allowing the prime scoring opportunities. The 1-3-1 that Eakins is using is better for a bigger rougher team that can push defenders around and screen the goalie.

    Latebullsh!t hit by Cooke, someone end his career (preferably league disciplinarians).

    Yeah, there certainly seemed to be more successful cross-ice passes and one-timers last season.

    I wonder though if they were at least a little bit lucky in 11-12 and 12-13. The average PP shooting percent is 12-13%, and the Oilers shot over 16% two years in a row. Skill can account for some of that, but did these kids really earn the best PP shooting percentage in the NHL over 2 years? I don’t know.

    It’s also possible that other teams have finally adjusted a bit to the Oilers. They’re still trying loads of cross ice passes, but a lot fewer seem to make it through. Of course this could equally be due to the 1-3-1 setup or something else the Oilers have changed.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Roy with a goal tonight, 37gp, 12-19-31

  60. The Great One says:

    icecastles: He reminds me too much of that bastard Smid.

    Marincin = Smid

  61. Lowetide says:

    Chase with 2a’s, 32-48-80 in 68gp. Nice. Lordy.

  62. stevezie says:

    jp: Not safe, but I don’t think you’re alone.

    I’m not any more excited by recent wins than I was depressed by early losses. The team didn’t look that bad then and it doesn’t look that good now. The PP really, really troubles me, and their willingness to sleepwalk through large chunks of games is discouraging to the extreme. I still don’t think they have an effective physical game and I think their attempts to address this have mostly moved them backwards.

    Remember the Fall for Hall year we set a team record for consecutive road wins.

    So no, not safe, but still advisable. Like Icecastles said, I follow this team for fun. So err on the optimistic!

    It’s a playoff quality top 7 and if Arco was up that number would be 8, the goaltending is set and looking solid, and the vaunted D pipeline is starting to pay off. I also see Hall’s ability to score despite falling possession numbers encouraging (If he gets the latter back up, he should skyrocket, right?)

    Finally, while this looks like a weak draft overall the top 4 look pretty decent, and that’s right where we are sitting.

    So yeah, smoke ‘em if you got ‘em. Why not?

  63. RexLibris says:

    dangilitis,

    I didn’t take the Matheson quote out of context.

    I simply didn’t put the entire paragraph into the comment as I felt that those interested would familiarize themselves with the rest of the response to the question posed. Many here read the Journal and so I felt that I would bring the topic, and Matheson’s reply, to the conversation.

    Matheson does go on to say that he has seen a “sea-change” in Petry’s play of late but then immediately qualifies this by saying “he’s been rocking people” as the principle aspect of how Petry’s game has improved.

    I disagree with Matheson on this point but that is really neither here nor there.

    My issue wasn’t with the reply, but with the question. If that person really believes that Tom Gilbert is a bad defenseman then he needs to give his head a shake.

  64. stevezie says:

    icecastles: How many f*&#ing draftees do you need before you want to see them start winning the GD hockey games?

    Right? And the top 4 look like a pick ‘em anyway! Winning has to be better than losing, or else what is the point of watching? (Not that I watched this game, I am boycotting the Wild for the foreseeable future).

  65. RexLibris says:

    The Great One: Marincin = Smid

    I’ve watched Smid from his first game in the NHL.

    What Marincin does both with and without the puck is very different than Smid. His ability to connect a pass beyond fifteen feet is superior to Smid’s at this same stage of development.

    He may not ever play higher in a defensive grouping than Smid, but they are not equivalent players.

  66. jp says:

    Whoah! Something from the boxscore you don’t see every day:

    Edmonton 4 giveaways/6 takeaways
    Minnesota 8 giveaways/4 takeaways

    Our boys are usually (ALWAYS) winning the giveaway battle.

    Funny too because the Wild announcers made a point of mentioning the Oilers were worst in the league in that category and had more than twice as many giveaways than the Wild on the season.

  67. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Chase with 2a’s, 32-48-80 in 68gp. Nice. Lordy.

    Against Lethbridge though, so I think that really only counts as 1. ;)

  68. Ryan says:

    The Great One: Marincin = Smid

    Lack = Luongo.

  69. jp says:

    The Great One: Marincin = Smid

    RexLibris: I’ve watched Smid from his first game in the NHL.

    What Marincin does both with and without the puck is very different than Smid. His ability to connect a pass beyond fifteen feet is superior to Smid’s at this same stage of development.

    He may not ever play higher in a defensive grouping than Smid, but they are not equivalent players.

    Marincin showed more offensive flair in OT tonight than Smid has in the last 5 years.

    But you did get a rise out of us.

  70. spoiler says:

    This game looked like a real turning point for this team.

  71. spoiler says:

    jp: Edmonton 4 giveaways/6 takeaways
    Minnesota 8 giveaways/4 takeaways

    If that’s correct, that’s an unusually small number of events for one game.

  72. Ryan says:

    spoiler:
    This game looked like a real turning point for this team.

    Better than a 7-4 loss to Nyi.

  73. jp says:

    RexLibris: I’ve watched Smid from his first game in the NHL.

    What Marincin does both with and without the puck is very different than Smid. His ability to connect a pass beyond fifteen feet is superior to Smid’s at this same stage of development.

    He may not ever play higher in a defensive grouping than Smid, but they are not equivalent players.

    He also doesn’t seem to run himself into the boards nearly as often as Smid did. Maybe that’s something he’ll pick up with time.

  74. spoiler says:

    Whenever I see “Oilers beat Minnesota”, I assume there’s been a typo.

  75. spoiler says:

    spoiler: This game looked like a real turning point for this team.

    Ryan: Better than a 7-4 loss to Nyi.

    I was being facetious but you’re right, that’s not a very happy sort of turning point.

  76. Bling says:

    Strange comp, Great One.

    Smid’s offensive calling card, when he was Marincin’s age, was throwing a suicide pass to Steve Staios. He (Smid) did it with such frequency that it reminded me back then of that scene from I Love Lucy, with the chocolates coming down the conveyor belt — Staios being Lucy, of course, and Smid the conveyor belt.

    Poor Steve Staios.

    Did you do a Sail On post for Steve Staios, LT? I’ll have to read that one again, if it exists. Poor guy probably had a year or two docked from his career mentoring good old Ladislav.

  77. jp says:

    spoiler: If that’s correct, that’s an unusually small number of events for one game.

    It’s certainly an unusually low number for the Oilers. I’m having trouble finding team giveaway/takeaway stats for the year, but the announcers mentioned 700-something giveaways for the Oilers vs 300-something for the Wild. So 5-10 per game – not too far out of whack compared to tonight’s game (http://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/en/boxscore?id=2013020983). Keeping up tonight’s numbers sure would be a turning point.

  78. dangilitis says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/VideoHub/?collection=72&show=305424

    I don’t know if anyone watched this, Scott Cullen and Tyler Dellow tweeting about Rishaug’s interview with Hall.

    For those who don’t want to watch the 4 minute interview:

    1) Hall clearly wants to get better
    2) He reads stuff said about him on mainsteam media and possibly checks out behindthenet !
    3) Not too knowledgeable in Corsi and Fenwick but knows that his Corsi is down this year, while his scoring chances for/against are similar.
    4) He would care more about these stats if someone could explain to him how to improve on them (hello, Tyler Dellow).
    5) Despite the fact that there are people hired by the team to crunch those numbers and interpret them, and when asked, they don’t have a solution for him (again, Tyler Dellow)
    6) Tired of losing and forgetting what being on a competitive team feels like
    7) Likes his teammates, just “wishes” they were better as a team.

    While the advanced stat bit is interesting, the whole interview left me feeling even more pessimistic about this team’s future. No optimism about winning in the future, no solutions from within offered from a great hockey player who is usually quite eloquent and non-scripted in his responses. Reminded me eerily of Hemsky’s exit interview with the Ottawa Citizen. That’s what losing for years will do to a player.

  79. dangilitis says:

    RexLibris:
    dangilitis,

    I didn’t take the Matheson quote out of context.

    I simply didn’t put the entire paragraph into the comment as I felt that those interested would familiarize themselves with the rest of the response to the question posed. Many here read the Journal and so I felt that I would bring the topic, and Matheson’s reply, to the conversation.

    Matheson does go on to say that he has seen a “sea-change” in Petry’s play of late but then immediately qualifies this by saying “he’s been rocking people” as the principle aspect of how Petry’s game has improved.

    I disagree with Matheson on this point but that is really neither here nor there.

    My issue wasn’t with the reply, but with the question. If that person really believes that Tom Gilbert is a bad defenseman then he needs to give his head a shake.

    Fair enough. I also appreciate that Matheson doesn’t need to over-represent the fan base that doesn’t have a clue.

    I am also thankful that for once, Matheson sees Petry for what he is, as a part of a winning D corps when played in a lesser role, as a player that the team should plan as being part of the future solution for what ails the team, and that he specifically responded to that question to make that point. The question was foolish but the response gave me hope that if Matheson merely is a sounding board for some of team management’s thoughts, that they are actually thinking and valuing a player appropriately.

  80. godot10 says:

    dangilitis:
    http://www.tsn.ca/VideoHub/?collection=72&show=305424

    I don’t know if anyone watched this, Scott Cullen and Tyler Dellow tweeting about Rishaug’s interview with Hall.

    For those who don’t want to watch the 4 minute interview:

    1) Hall clearly wants to get better
    2) He reads stuff said about him on mainsteam media and possibly checks out behindthenet !
    3) Not too knowledgeable in Corsi and Fenwick but knows that his Corsi is down this year, while his scoring chances for/against are similar.
    4) He would care more about these stats if someone could explain to him how to improve on them (hello, Tyler Dellow).
    5) Despite the fact that there are people hired by the team to crunch those numbers and interpret them, and when asked, they don’t have a solution for him (again, Tyler Dellow)
    6) Tired of losing and forgetting what being on a competitive team feels like
    7) Likes his teammates, just “wishes” they were better as a team.

    While the advanced stat bit is interesting, the whole interview left me feeling even more pessimistic about this team’s future. No optimism about winning in the future, no solutions from within offered from a great hockey player who is usually quite eloquent and non-scripted in his responses. Reminded me eerily of Hemsky’s exit interview with the Ottawa Citizen. That’s what losing for years will do to a player.

    Corsi is an aggregated stat. Knowing it has some abstract value. But sport is played situationallly, and not in aggregate. Athletes make situational decisions. The situational decisions are then processed and examined in aggregate later.

    So unless Corsi is broken down into practical principles that a player can apply situationally, it is just a crude measuring stick.

    Which is essentially the answer Hall gave.

    But I will answer his question. His Corsi is down because his coach a bad coach, and not playing players to their strengths, and with players suited to each other.

  81. Lowetide says:

    Bling:
    Strange comp, Great One.

    Smid’s offensive calling card, when he was Marincin’s age, was throwing a suicide pass to Steve Staios. He (Smid) did it with such frequency that it reminded me back then of that scene from I Love Lucy, with the chocolates coming down the conveyor belt — Staios being Lucy, of course, and Smid the conveyor belt.

    Poor Steve Staios.

    Did you do a Sail On post for Steve Staios, LT? I’ll have to read that one again, if it exists. Poor guy probably hada year or two docked from his career mentoring good old Ladislav.

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2010/03/sail-on-hamilton-kilty-b.html

  82. dangilitis says:

    godot10: Corsi is an aggregated stat.Knowing it has some abstract value.But sport is played situationallly, and not in aggregate.Athletes make situational decisions.The situational decisions are then processed and examined in aggregate later.

    So unless Corsi is broken down into practical principles that a player can apply situationally, it is just a crude measuring stick.

    Which is what the team should be paying its analysts to do, no?

    Here…
    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6667

    And again here…
    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6700

    So, why is it again that (a) Taylor Hall is interested in improving the stat and understanding what it means,(b) that the Oilers’ clearly have personnel being paid to help him and other interested players in such a task, and that (c) despite Hall’s stated efforts to ask these staff what it means to his play, they have no answer, when (d) Tyler Dellow has done it for free?

  83. B S says:

    jp: Yeah, there certainly seemed to be more successful cross-ice passes and one-timers last season.

    I wonder though if they were at least a little bit lucky in 11-12 and 12-13. The average PP shooting percent is 12-13%, and the Oilers shot over 16% two years in a row. Skill can account for some of that, but did these kids really earn the best PP shooting percentage in the NHL over 2 years? I don’t know.

    It’s also possible that other teams have finally adjusted a bit to the Oilers. They’re still trying loads of cross ice passes, but a lot fewer seem to make it through. Of course this could equally be due to the 1-3-1 setup or something else the Oilers have changed.

    It’s probably both, bearing in mind that statistics can’t tell you why something happened. only that it happened and whether it is a rare event (i.e. should you expect this to happen normally or not). Interpretation must still be based on observation.

    I would suspect that the power play (and the team’s offensive play in general) is suffering from both the coaching, and the fact that other teams have the kid’s cross-crease pass circled in their playbook. The former depends on Eakins recognizing that he needs some new looks for his PP, the latter depends on the kids going to the net more and mixing it up around the crease. Scoring more garbage goals will force teams to chase the shooters more, opening up more room for dangles and passes, the same way dumping the puck in every-so-often (basically when the Dman is checking a player tight) forces the defence to back off and give more room, allowing for easier zone entries.

  84. PhrankLee says:

    Hey stats guys. How many PP goals do we have from the point by a defenceman?

  85. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like Petry got the memo that thunderous body checks is the key to being a defenseman in Edmonton

  86. icecastles says:

    leadfarmer,

    Beautiful.

    He still has to work on rimming the puck out along the boards though. This whole ‘effective passing’ thing has no place in an Oilers defenseman.

  87. stevezie says:

    PhrankLee,

    Is this really a “stat guy” question? NSchutlz hadn’t scored any, so a quick trip to tsn.ca (or wherever) will tell you the answer is 20.

    For a quick comparison, Erik Karlsson alone has 17 (Ottawa has 43!), but then the Blackhawks D only has 24. The Isles only have 16, and my final random team, Dallas, has 22.

    Unless you meant how many were shot from the point, specifically by a defenceman. I’ll let someone else go through the tape.

    *Interesting takeaway- even without Karlsson Ottawa clearly gets a lot of goals from the back-end. Do you think Karlsson’s presence inspired them to create a system that tends to encourage offense from the point, or is Karlsson just benefiting the most from a system that clearly facilitates D scoring? The scoring is fairly spread out, so other than Karlsson I don’t think they have any unique offensive talents.

  88. Pouzar says:

    PhrankLee:
    Hey stats guys. How many PP goals do we have from the point by a defenceman?

    We have to be in the bottom 5 or 6….at least.

    I wanted to smash my TV watching Schultz on the PP while Marincin rots on the bench with his 100 mph and puck moving skills. Eakins will look at Marincin’s exploits in OT on video today and it still won’t click. MM is perfect for the PP…big slapper, can pass and move it, is fast and mobile and his long reach will allow him to keep more pucks in at the blue line which for some reason Schultz is terrible at.

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