SABRES AT OILERS, G71 13-14

The Edmonton Oilers are 10-4-3 in their last 17, but a lot of the golden record comes via all-world goaltending. There’s no way the goalies can sustain this run, and when the save-percentage begins to fall the shot differential will remain. Are the Oilers getting any better at that?

CORSI FOR 5X5 % (BLUE)

  1. Martin Marincin 49.0
  2. Jeff Petry 47.3
  3. Anton Belov 46.4
  4. Phil Larsen 44.1
  5. Oscar Klefbom 43.8
  6. Justin Schultz 43.3
  7. Andrew Ference 42.9
  8. Mark Fraser 41.1

DEFENSIVE ZONE START (BLUE)

  1. Oscar Klefbom 41.7
  2. Mark Fraser 38.2
  3. Jeff Petry 36.1
  4. Martin Marincin 36.0
  5. Anton Belov 33.6
  6. Justin Schultz 33.0
  7. Andrew Ference 32.5
  8. Phil Larsen 32.3

OFFENSIVE ZONE START (BLUE)

  1. Phil Larsen 33.4
  2. Anton Belov 29.7
  3. Justin Schultz 29.3
  4. Martin Marincin 28.8
  5. Andrew Ference 27.3
  6. Oscar Klefbom 27.1
  7. Jeff Petry 27.0
  8. Mark Fraser 22.9

QUAL COMP (BLUE, BTN)

oilers blue qual comp mar 19

CORSI ON (BLUE, BTN)

oilers blue corsi on mar 19Unless I’m crazy, we can say the following about Martin Marincin:

  1. Marincin has the best Corsi for 5×5 % and best Corsi On among current players
  2. Marincin had the highest number of defensive zone starts (as a percentage) among blue until recently
  3. Marincin has the toughest qual comp.

Martin Marincin, based on this information, is the best defenseman on the Edmonton Oilers. I don’t think there’s an argument beyond Jeff Petry’s (which is that his sample is larger and Petry may be zooming Marincin) and even then you’re going to have a tough time convincing me. A star is born? Well, don’t blow out the candle but this looks pretty damn good.

And when we talk about next season, I don’t think it’s possible at this point to suggest Marincin begins the season in the minors. He’s here until he struggles for an extended period, and if he continues to play at this level Marincin stays full stop. That 2010 draft is looking better today.

marincin and schultz

ADDING TO THE BLUE

We’ve talked at length about what to do this summer to help this defense. For me, acquiring a veteran player who can play with the chaos that is Justin Schultz is key. His Corsi for % 5×5 is 43%, which is not going to win hockey games. The idea of signing Andrei Markov to a four-year deal at $6M+ seems drastic, but that’s probably what it is going to take. The alternative? Trading Schultz. This summer.

If you trade Schultz and replace him on the RH side with a “two-way” option then the blue has a more traditional, less chaotic feel. Another Jeff Petry would come in handy about now. I’m still onboard with keeping Schultz, but he’s a rambler and a rover and the club badly needs a Serge Savard to allow Larry Robinson to wheel.

DEATH-RATTLE FOR DRAISAITL?

matheson draisaitl

Matty’s hot on the trail of Leon Draisaitl, but it’s another EJ writer who moves the conversation forward with some hard work and the power of observation. You can read about it here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

monroe7

First day of spring, snow in Edmonton. Sure. It’s important to remember the flowers that await us in a few short weeks. This morning at 10, the Lowdown hits TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Oilogosphere icon Dennis King. We’ll talk about that Oilers blueline for next season and about the Leafs/Habs.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings pbp. Playoffs start this Saturday for the Oil Kings, against PA. We’ll talk Draisaitl and the second season.
  • Curtis Lazar, Edmonton Oil Kings. Top drawer talent probably spending his final months in the WHL. We’ll talk playoffs and more.
  • Neal Livingston, Tend the Farm. Tyler Pitlick joins Anton Lander and Oscar Klefbom with the big club, how does that impact the Barons?

10-1260 via text or @Lowetide_ on twitter. I’m looking forward to talking to these four gents, hope you can tune in.

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276 Responses to "SABRES AT OILERS, G71 13-14"

« Older Comments
  1. Ryan says:

    Zone entries are looking better tonight!uring the power plays.

  2. hunter1909 says:

    The Great One,

    lol

    Never a bad way to follow the Oilers since 1991.

  3. jfry says:

    DBO,

    if you’re around Kihei, there’s a bar called “sports page” that plays all the hockey games. it’s just locals watching hockey and canucks watching hockey. not too bad!

  4. Oilanderp says:

    Man if we could ever get someone on Gags’ line to go to the net, they could have a lot of goals. Lordy that guy can pass.

    EDIT: and someone teach Schultz how to eat the puck in the corner instead of that weak sauce leading to goal against.

  5. The Great One says:

    Uh, oh.

    The apocalypse approaches.

  6. hunter1909 says:

    Zach Kassian laughing when Gagner chews his new, busted mouth mouthguard.

    Cody!!

  7. Oilanderp says:

    Scoresheet lists Yakupov as -2.

  8. godot10 says:

    Mark Arcobello’s clone is exacting revenge on Dallas Eakins tonight.

  9. jp says:

    lol. And I thought the Oilers looked like the better team… Sigh.

  10. hunter1909 says:

    For once they’re coming through in the real(draft position)clinch.

  11. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Every oiler on the ice looked hopeless on the 3 1 goal.

  12. hunter1909 says:

    SK Oiler Fan:
    Every oiler on the ice looked hopeless on the 3 1 goal.

    I was reading only today how they’re all “buying In” re Eakin’s alleged system.

    help!

  13. Lowetide says:

    Oh those Oilers. Buffalo hasn’t been a winner in a month of Sundays and they’re doing the Fonzie comb stuff in the third period. Lordy. You have to laugh.

  14. Kitchener says:

    Sigh.

  15. Henry says:

    SK Oiler Fan:
    Every oiler on the ice looked hopeless on the 3 1 goal.

    SK Oiler Fan,

    It was magnificent. Gagner almost got Perron’s stick but couldn’t quite reach there.

  16. sliderule says:

    The good news is Sam Reinhart has 2goals-1a in win over Calgary.

    Chase with goal for Calgary.

  17. Oilanderp says:

    Eakins needs to explain to Gagner d-zone coverage like this: ‘See, Gags, it’s exactly like passing, except it’s without the puck and it’s with your feet. YOU need to pass YOUR feet to the opponent’s feet, then wait for the puck to come to you.’

  18. jp says:

    Lowetide: Lander is over 10 minutes after two, Pitlick is 5:27 and will play between 7 and 8 minutes. Seems reasonable.

    Pitlick looks like a perfect replacement for Ryan Jones. Skating around but doing sweet fuck all. Hopefully he can bring more (looked decent in his earlier call up), but he’s done nothing at all tonight.

  19. godot10 says:

    hunter1909: I was reading only today how they’re all “buying In” re Eakin’s alleged system.

    help!

    Eakins can’t tell the difference between a .940 save percentage, and his stupid system working.

    Things will be hunky dory next year! -).

  20. The Great One says:

    jp: Pitlick looks like a perfect replacement for Ryan Jones. Skating around but doing sweet fuck all. Hopefully he can bring more (looked decent in his earlier call up), but he’s done nothing at all tonight.

    Pitlick and Lander are decent AHL players.

    Nothing more.

  21. Marcus Oilerius says:

    For a game like this, it’s time to pull out the old Wiser’s De Luxe shoe polish flavor Canadian whisky.

  22. hunter1909 says:

    It’s one thing Oiler’s dominating the league doormats. It’s another thing beating playoff teams.

  23. The Great One says:

    Sabres outshooting Oilers 8-1 in the 3rd period,

    Score effects. :)

  24. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Things will be hunky dory next year! -).

    Eakin’s gets 20 games, according to my imaginary sources.

  25. Oilanderp says:

    I remember a few posts and crossbar earlier in the game, let’s not get too negative. :) Some good work there by Lander that shift.

  26. jp says:

    hunter1909:
    It’s one thing Oiler’s dominating the league doormats. It’s another thing beating playoff teams.

    And the current Oilers fall into a 3rd and even less flattering category…

  27. gcw_rocks says:

    Your Edmonton Oilers. Slump busters since 2007.

  28. SK Oiler Fan says:

    That 89 dump, chase, and fail was comical. D man didn’t even acknowledge that there was a fore check.

  29. delooper says:

    Noticed lander again, and he wasn’t on a PK.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Eakins calls this “fantasy hockey”.

  31. PunjabiOil says:

    1. Agree with the premise that Justin Schultz could be an attractive piece to upgrade on defense or a second line center.

    He’s 23. Still hasn’t learned to play defence. Still young enough that he carries value, along with his boxcar numbers.

    2. Gagner is what he is. Flawed defensively, 45-55 point player. You’d hope there is a bigger market for him in the summer, and you almost wonder Eakins playing him with Hall is showcasing him for a summer deal.

    I’ve always like Olli Jokinen for a stop gap solution.

    3. Twitter says Bob McKenzie suggested Eric Staal is on the market. Plenty of pieces the Oilers have if indeed he’s willing to waive his NTC to come here (I spent the entire month of January in North Carolina for work – not exactly a throbbing metropolis).

    2014 1st, 2015 1st, Eberle, Schultz, Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin, Yakupov, etc.

    Staal and RNH down the middle for the next 7 years makes the hair under my armpits stand right up.

  32. hunter1909 says:

    My apathy tonight, knows no bounds.

  33. Oilanderp says:

    PP adjustment: pass it to the guy standing still at the blue line. Oh my.

  34. jp says:

    The Great One: Pitlick and Lander are decent AHL players.

    Nothing more.

    I’ve still got hope for Lander, but I’ve never been sold on Pitlick. He’s done very little other than “look” like a hockey player since turning pro. I guess it’s still possible he puts those tools together and can become a decent 3rd liner, but I’m not holding my breath.

  35. hunter1909 says:

    Jones on the pp? LOL.

  36. PunjabiOil says:

    Also, the Oilers would be silly not to attempt to sign Penner this off-season.

    Value, value value.

  37. gcw_rocks says:

    I love Eakins’ expressions. He manages to look lost and angry at the same time.

  38. Rebilled says:

    hunter1909,

    Dallas wanted to see if he could win it in 2 periods.

  39. SK Oiler Fan says:

    perron really struggled tonight

  40. Marcus Oilerius says:

    hunter1909:
    Jones on the pp? LOL.

    All game. 2nd unit.

  41. gcw_rocks says:

    While he couldn’t get the puck over Hackett, I love that Lander plays hard around the net. If he keeps out up the garbage goals will come. I hope Smyth is working with Lander. No one else on the team seems to like that real estate.

  42. Oilanderp says:

    So much icetime for Hall. Showcasing? ;)

  43. The Great One says:

    PunjabiOil:
    1.Agree with the premise that Justin Schultz could be an attractive piece to upgrade on defense or a second line center.

    He’s 23.Still hasn’t learned to play defence.Still young enough that he carries value, along with his boxcar numbers.

    2.Gagner is what he is.Flawed defensively, 45-55 point player.You’d hope there is a bigger market for him in the summer, and you almost wonder Eakins playing him with Hall is showcasing him for a summer deal.

    I’ve always like Olli Jokinen for a stop gap solution.

    3.Twitter says Bob McKenzie suggested Eric Staal is on the market.Plenty of pieces the Oilers have if indeed he’s willing to waive his NTC to come here (I spent the entire month of January in North Carolina for work – not exactly a throbbing metropolis).

    2014 1st, 2015 1st, Eberle, Schultz, Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin, Yakupov, etc.

    Staal and RNH down the middle for the next 7 years makes the hair under my armpits stand right up.

    1) Justin Schulz is currently 44th in points by a defensman. Considering he also can’t play a lick of defense, the Emperor has no clothes.

    2) There is NO market for Gagner at $4.8M unless the Oilers take back half his salary.

    3) Spending January in Edmonton would have convinced you about that.

    Many, many teams could offer a better package for the Staals.

  44. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Sabres 3 Hall 1. Nothing else to offer tonight.

  45. jp says:

    PunjabiOil:
    1.Agree with the premise that Justin Schultz could be an attractive piece to upgrade on defense or a second line center.

    He’s 23.Still hasn’t learned to play defence.Still young enough that he carries value, along with his boxcar numbers.

    2.Gagner is what he is.Flawed defensively, 45-55 point player.You’d hope there is a bigger market for him in the summer, and you almost wonder Eakins playing him with Hall is showcasing him for a summer deal.

    I don’t want to disagree with you, just think it’s funny that Gagner is not even a year older than Schultz.

  46. The Great One says:

    Oilanderp:
    So much icetime for Hall.Showcasing?

    He’s all Eakins has.

  47. hunter1909 says:

    They just lost to the Sabres. In fairness, this is starting to look like a 3-5 year rebuild, with no more chance of a positive outcome than it had last season. Last season, before everyone climbed onto this Dallas Eakins stressed out crazy train.

    Good night.

  48. gcw_rocks says:

    So, we were talking about how the team had improved lately…

  49. Marcus Oilerius says:

    gcw_rocks,

    Goaltending came down to earth, shots for/against were even against the worst team in the league… so… yeah.

    Fire Eakins.

  50. emonkee says:

    wished Eakins play more pitlick and lessen the load on the first line…their last shift with about 3 mins left I think… I like what lander nuge and pitlick did..pitlick rushed from 1 side to the other to keep the puck in

  51. The Great One says:

    Corsi 5V5

    Buffalo – 52.0

    Edmonton – 48.0

  52. Marcus Oilerius says:

    The Great One:
    Corsi 5V5

    Buffalo – 52.0

    Edmonton – 48.0

    Here’s who the Sabres are missing tonight:

    Neuvirth, Enorth, Girgensons, Myers, Stewart. And that’s the big names.

    Fire Eakins.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Anyone have an opinion on McKenzie’s comment re: Myers for Oilers pick?

  54. The Great One says:

    Lowetide:
    Anyone have an opinion on McKenzie’s comment re: Myers for Oilers pick?

    Yep.

    Buffalo would be stupid to do that.

    Myers is likely going to be a better player than anyone in the 2014 draft.

    Buffalo might do it to get out of the contract.

    P.S.

    Myers has a NTC.

  55. PunjabiOil says:

    Lowetide: anyone

    Too much of a gamble IMO. You need certainties when you’re giving up a top 4 pick.

    Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett – that’s a solid, solid top 4.

    I’d rather the Oilers move their 2015th 1st for Myers, and I suspect if Buffalo is willing to move him, they’d probably accept that offer.

  56. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil: Too much of a gamble IMO.You need certainties when you’re giving up a top 4 pick.

    Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett – that’s a solid, solid top 4.

    I’d rather the Oilers move their 2015th 1st for Myers, and I suspect if Buffalo is willing to move him, they’d probably accept that offer.

    That’s my take. If Ekblad isn’t there, I understand dealing the pick. would prefer to shop it around.

  57. Lowetide says:

    gcw_rocks:
    So, we were talking about how the team had improved lately…

    No. We talked about how the goaltending had improved greatly.

  58. The Great One says:

    PunjabiOil: Too much of a gamble IMO.You need certainties when you’re giving up a top 4 pick.

    Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett – that’s a solid, solid top 4.

    I’d rather the Oilers move their 2015th 1st for Myers, and I suspect if Buffalo is willing to move him, they’d probably accept that offer.

    Myers is an NHL player.

    None of the others are.

    They MAY get there.

    The risk is on the other side.

  59. The Great One says:

    Lowetide: No. We talked about how the goaltending had improved greatly.

    Regression to the mean underway.

  60. striker says:

    PunjabiOil: Too much of a gamble IMO. You need certainties when you’re giving up a top 4 pick.

    Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett – that’s a solid, solid top 4.

    I’d rather the Oilers move their 2015th 1st for Myers, and I suspect if Buffalo is willing to move him, they’d probably accept that offer.

    Agree with this

  61. PunjabiOil says:

    Solid goaltending can mask alot of weaknesses. That’s all the recent “hot streak” was, in combination with a softer schedule.

    The good news is MacT is invested into advanced statistics, and remarked near the deadline that the defence is a mess, and they have alot of work to do there.

    He offered three second round picks for Coburn last summer. Suspect he’ll be aggressive again this year.

    I don’t think it’s out of possibility one of the 2014 or 2015 1st round pick is moved.

  62. The Great One says:

    striker: Agree with this

    Buffalo wouldn’t do it and Myers wouldn’t accept a trade to the Oilers.

  63. PunjabiOil says:

    DSF with yet another series of non-value added drive by posts.

    Exceeds the point of mere annoyance.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

  64. Numenius says:

    I’m not overly worried about this loss to the Sabres. The Oilers had a loss like this coming from the hockey gods for the recent string of wins that was not entirely earned.

  65. Numenius says:

    PunjabiOil:
    DSF with yet another series of non-value added drive by posts.

    Exceeds the point of mere annoyance.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

    Yes, it’s been particularly bad today.

  66. book¡je says:

    This team comes out prepared to play and be competitive every fourth period on average.

  67. striker says:

    The Great One: Buffalo wouldn’t do it and Myers wouldn’t accept a trade to the Oilers.

    Well you sound certain so I’ll believe you. That’s Dreger / Mackenzie type connections you must have. Impressive.

  68. tcho says:

    Don’t feed the troll, lads.

  69. Lois Lowe says:

    striker: Well you sound certain so I’ll believe you.That’s Dreger / Mackenzie type connections you must have.Impressive.

    By now you should know that we’re all bowing on the altar of Ryan (from LT fame) because he seems to believe that he invented the Yak trade rumours.

  70. Oilanderp says:

    It’s no big deal. Many posts were hit. That’s why they play the games. Now mind you if we played 100 games against them we’d easily win 51. The process continues.

  71. Oilanderp says:

    Oilanderp,

    I know it might seem like you’re talkin’ to yourself but really, t’was two tips for goals. Can’t get down there buddy let’s go man. The way she goes. Lessgo boys. C’mon now.

  72. russ99 says:

    The Great One: 1) Justin Schulz is currently 44th in points by a defensman. Considering he also can’t play a lick of defense, the Emperor has no clothes.

    Yet he’s only played 111 NHL games (and is far outscoring similar players like Gardiner) and effectively bypassed the AHL where you learn such things, and he’s not been given the best defense pairings and thrown a ton of ice time.

    IMO, had he bypassed the NCAA and gone the traditional route (CHL an extra year or two then AHL) he’d be a better defensive player than he has been.

  73. gcw_rocks says:

    The Great One,

    Ntc does not kick on until 2016-17 season. He would have no say if the Sabres traded him.

  74. Andy P says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Also, the Oilers would be silly not to attempt to sign Penner this off-season.

    Value, value value.

    iirc KLowe stole Pancakes from Brian Burke through an overpriced offer sheet that enraged Burkie to the degree that he wanted at one time to have a punch up with Lowe in a barn.

    MacT was coach at the time, and he grew increasingly frustrated with Pancakes at the time, for his ongoing lack of commitment to the game, until he finally got rid of him. This left quite the bitter taste in their mouths in particular considering the price paid. While Penner appears to have stepped up to some degree, he has yet to find a coach that can endure his lack of personal commitment for very long.

    In light of which I see more chance of the center of the earth turning into an ice block than MacT bringing Pancakes back to a team already lacking the necessary commitment.

  75. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Andy P,

    He was also traded from a contender (Anaheim) despite fitting their top line, to an also-ran (Washington), after his production slipped.

    Penner’s on the slope down.

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