SHARKS AT OILERS G73, 13-14

The Edmonton Oilers enter the ‘death spiral’ portion of the home stretch, beginning tonight. The games now through season’s end are likely to test fan resolve, player commitment, and could impact the futures of coaches and managers. This is hell.

  • Tonight: San Jose
  • Friday: Anaheim
  • Sunday: NY Rangers
  • April 1: San Jose
  • April 2: Anaheim
  • April 4: Phoenix
  • April 6: Anaheim
  • April 8: Colorado
  • April 10: Los Angeles
  • April 12: Vancouver

Ten games to end the season that should as a group tighten sphincters from here to eternity. The last “easy” game was Calgary, and the Oilers lost by a touchdown. The Oilers as an organization should be patient, but that’s going to be difficult in these next 10 games.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

blue vollman mar 25

This is Qual Comp/Zone Starts and the bubbles are CorsiRel. The interesting items here are:

  1. Marincin’s bubble is now the deep, rich blue one gets when having a really good season, and he’s playing tough competition with a 44% zone start. This is a terrible defense, but Marincin’s rookie season should not be trivialized because of it. The one good thing about this defense this season is Marincin.
  2. Jeff Petry is much maligned but there’s no reason for it. He remains the best player on the team, despite youth and lack of experience.
  3. Phil Larsen is pure chaos, but the Vollman likes him plenty compared to his teammates. He is badly miscast in this role, but might be a useful AHL callup on a good NHL team. Something to keep in mind for next season and beyond.
  4. Ference and Schultz have CorsiON numbers beyond -15, this is not a working tandem. Plenty of talk about how to handle Petry, but for me it’s right there in the Vollman. A good team would have Schultz closer to 50% offensive zone start and in the “two-way” part of the Vollman graph. Currently, everyone but Grebs, Fraser and Belov are in the shutdown corridor.
  5. If you are looking for reasons to be critical of Dallas Eakins, the usage of Klefbom and Fraser (most severe zone starts on the team) would be an area to examine. It’s a tough thing no doubt, but Taylor Fedun and Denis Grebeshkov are available for recall. It seems to me the pursuit of toughness has gone beyond the pursuit of icing the best available team.

A few news items here, including Arco hurt, Belov ready (but unlikely to play, which is a questionable decision), Yakupov still not ready to play and Lander v Fasth.

  • I’m not certain what the Oilers can get out of the last 10 games. The goaltending is set for next year (assuming Fasth recovers), the D will feature Petry, Marincin and Ference (unless one of them is traded) and the forward group will boast Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yak, Perron, Gordon, Hendricks and Gazdic. Gagner will probably be traded, Smyth is a summer decision and the club will need to decide on people like Lander, Pitlick, Jones, Arco, Fraser, Belov, Larsen et al.
  • How many of those guys can improve their stock with the time remaining this season? Maybe Lander, maybe Pitlick, maybe Belov, maybe Larsen.

Bottom line on this season: Craig MacTavish did not want to trade one of the good young forwards for defensive help last summer, and this June he must. I think we might see a massive change in roster over the summer, as veteran defensemen (two) and a quality two-way center—at the minimum—need to be added to the group. Dallas Eakins has a much better idea about his roster today than he did in the fall, so he’ll know which of the young guns is most expendable for him.

I still think there’s something in Philadelphia. It was discussed at the draft, and may also have been discussed early in the regular season.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

hayek14

At 10 this morning, the Lowdown hits TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Ryan Batty, Copper and Blue. We’ll talk about Golden Bears, the Oil Kings, the Oilers, the draft, the blue, the beer.
  • Jacob Sundstrom, Fear the Fin. We’ll discuss injuries to Couture and Torres, and the Sharks possibly wearing out Rexall’s goal horn.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. Oil Kings are off to a very good start to their playoff against PA, the road games await.
  • Andrew Berkshire, Habs Eyes on the Prize. Montreal is Canada’s best hockey team, and their coach played Doug Murray for 20 shifts last night.
  • Steve Dangle, Leafs Nation. The Big Smoke is having a tough week, we’ll check in with the very entertaining Mr. Dangle.

10-1260 via text and @Lowetide_ on twitter. See you on the radio!!

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330 Responses to "SHARKS AT OILERS G73, 13-14"

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  1. regwald says:

    Someone a week or so ago called the games to close out the season “murderers row”. Excellent description. All 10 teams in the playoff race and it could be a slow painful death to MacT’s first season at the helm.

    Will Eakins survive. Mgmt is saying they are sticking with him, but you can’t look at the results and wonder.

  2. icecastles says:

    I just hope we can bear in mind the death spiral list when the long knives inevitably come out through these final games. Guys are going to look bad, and Eakins is going to take even more heat as the losses pile up. Tough to evaluate much of anything on a stretch like this.

    Of course, one would hope that any managerial epiphany about this team has long since been arrived at and MacTavish already has enough information to go into the summer with a clear sense of his needs and of which parts need replacement. As I believe was commented on in a prior thread, it would be terrifying to think that the Calgary game provided some kind of eye-opening moment, simply because of the implication it would carry that the flaws were not already glaringly apparent to those in a position to do something about it.

    I really think MacT and Eakins are fully aware of how bad the team is and has been. There has been some tire-pumping for the press and fans (“we were playing so well as of late”), but I can’t imagine there are any illusions about where the Oilers stand and how much of the recent success has been a result of stellar goaltending.

  3. justDOit says:

    Flames beat the Sharks last night in a SO. They also humbled the Ducks last week. Could it be that they’re playing better hockey than anyone wants to admit, and that the 8 – 1 drubbing said as much about them as it did the Oilers?

  4. frjohnk says:

    I figure that oilers finish the season 3-6-1 in the last 10 games and that is with superior goaltending. 66 points, 29th place. Buffalo wins lottery, picks Ekblad.

    I hope the oilers trade their pick. We need impact players next season, not 3 or 4 years down the road.

  5. Henry says:

    I’ll be happy if they can keep the sharks under 35 shots.

  6. Lloyd B. says:

    An angry sharks team that we bit last time out. Should probably put the children to bed early tonight. Nobody under the age of 18 should be subjected to this kind of horror. Frankly nobody under the age of 100 should be. However, what if…we go 500 the rest of the way? Is it another corner turned or is it just a bad team on a streak? We wait.

  7. borisnikov says:

    The first thing I thought when I heard of Lander running over Fasth was this…

    How often is it that we hear of an injury in practice because of someone pushing the limit of ‘practice how you play’?

    It’s is now well documented by exiting players that Oilers’ practices are slow compared to the new teams players go to, how much of that leaks into the intensity of individual players in practice? It would be refreshing to hear of more borderline plays and dust ups. Would it at least be the sign of a pulse that seems non-existent at times?

  8. anonymous says:

    Hopefully Eakins doesn’t have too much influence on which of the young guys go. Hate to find out that 20 games into next season he really is a bad coach and they’ve made the wrong trade.

    With the Oilers luck they’d end up trading the best one.

  9. icecastles says:

    frjohnk: I hope the oilers trade their pick. We need impact players next season, not 3 or 4 years down the road.

    Yup. I know there are guys on here actually cheering for losses and drooling for Draisaitl (heh), but I have been following the team long enough that I can’t get behind more distant hope from 18 year-olds. Among other things, drafting an additional guy doesn’t do anything to address the problem of homogeneity of size and skill across our top lines.

    And I wonder how many 1st and 2nd overall draftees we think the Oilers can really afford to hang onto once they start hitting their paydays?

  10. borisnikov says:

    justDOit:
    Flames beat the Sharks last night in a SO. They also humbled the Ducks last week. Could it be that they’re playing better hockey than anyone wants to admit, and that the 8 – 1 drubbing said as much about them as it did the Oilers?

    Their underlying number aren’t that bad. PDO is 4th last at 5v5 though. A little a bit of luck and better tending and they are climbing the standings IMO. Makes me sick to the stomach having some respect growing for that team within me.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Folin?

    http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/24499863/christian-folin-could-make-instant-impact-as-college-free-agent

    “The Oilers are also reportedly interested, and it’s not hard to understand why as a defense-starved team. General manager Craig MacTavish played at Lowell himself in his college years.”

    LT… get this Peters on your show if you can.

    ———
    Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 3m
    Fringe 4/ good 5. Dont get too excited. RT @Sebmono: . @coreypronman what is the projection on Christian Folin?

  12. jake70 says:

    Playing up to their competition – I predict 13 points out of those 20 available. Those Oilers.

    “the goaltending is set next year” – MacT didn’t think so summer 2013, but I got the sense a lot of fans did. I feel better about it than last off season but not at the “ok, we cross this off our needs list” level. We’ll see.

  13. icecastles says:

    jake70: Playing up to their competition – I predict 13 points out of those 20 available.

    There has been no precedent for that to happen this season.

  14. Bruce McCurdy says:

    icecastles: Yup. I know there are guys on here actually cheering for losses and drooling for Draisaitl (heh), but I have been following the team long enough that I can’t get behind more distant hope from 18 year-olds. Among other things, drafting an additional guy doesn’t do anything to address the problem of homogeneity of size and skill across our top lines.

    What about if the additional guy already weighs 210 pounds at 19?

    In answer to those who asked me about the weekend games between the Oil Kings & Raiders, I’ve got a fresh post on the subject at CoH, with some bonus UAlberta Golden Bears content.

  15. jake70 says:

    icecastles: There has been no precedent for that to happen this season.

    Not yet. And they did beat the Sharks 3-0 recently ;-)

  16. G Money says:

    This isn’t hell. The first 20 games – outplaying beatable teams and still losing night after night and watching the playoffs disappear a quarter of the way into the season – that was hell.

    This is purgatory. As in … we wait … and continue to wait … and wait … etc.

    icecastles: Among other things, drafting an additional guy doesn’t do anything to address the problem of homogeneity of size and skill across our top lines.

    Have to disagree with this. Of all the problems with this team, most agree that the roster is the biggest (I think… who knows).

    The holes in the roster are at such critical roles (1/2D, 2C) that filling them all via trade and free agency will be either unaffordable or will create unfillable roster holes elsewhere.

    This is why it should be obvious that either Ekblad or Draisaitl are at the top of the Oiler board. Either of those guys do address in the long run both a critical roster gap as well as the homogeneity of size issue.

    And yes, I do recognize that this is a theoretical and risk-fraught venture, that they’re youngsters and draft picks, and it/they could still fail. But I’d rather have a roster hole theoretically filled than a roster hole unfilled in actuality.

    Drafting either of those guys leaves MacT with a difficult problem instead of a nearly insurmountable one.

    So … Breaking Bad for Ekblad, or In Idle for Draisaitl.

    (On a side note, if we get Bennett or Reinhart – it doesn’t address the homogeneity of size issue, but it shifts the issue from filling a hole to trading wingers based on need, which is easier than trading wingers for something else as it doesn’t create a hole in the process)

  17. frjohnk says:

    icecastles,

    Over the last 10 years.

    Impact players at 18 years old, Crosby, that’s it.
    Impact players at 19 years old, Kane and Stamkos.
    Youngest impact D man is Doughty at 20 years old.

    Best case scenario is if oilers draft someone is that
    a forward like Reinhart or Draisaitl would become an impact player in 2015-16. Keep in mind they are also late birthdays.

    Ekblad would become an impact Dman in 2016-17, same age as Doughty when he launched.

    I think this is best case scenario for these picks and that is why I am a huge advocate for trading this years top pick for an impact player NOW.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On the blue… the usage is just brutal all around.

    Not playing Belov, playing Fraser, player klefbom with fraser, playing that pair in the mud, playing Justin with sad, old vets (Nick, Ference) too high up the batting order, playing Larsen (when he plays) way too much…

    it’s all such a mess. half is on Tambo/MacT for the state of the roster; but the other half is clearly on Eakins who continues to make some mighty odd decisions on the blue.

    I think you are right about Larsen. He’s still young enough, has the wheels and skating to convince someone to give him another shot to come up through the minors. But most likely he’ll enjoy a long career in Europe.

    With Belov… I just remain flabbergasted. He played well, when he played. Sure he got exposed on a couple of plays, but no worse than the rest of the roster. Sure, he wasn’t taking on the toughs and he wasn’t getting stuck in the deep end… but he was playing well and seemed to match with Justin well. I have no idea why you wouldn’t take the rest of the season to see if they can repeat their success in a 3rd pairing role.

  19. icecastles says:

    G Money: Have to disagree with this. Of all the problems with this team, most agree that the roster is the biggest (I think… who knows).

    I don’t think you’re disagreeing on that particular point. I’m saying the roster is a problem – too many of our top guys have duplicated skillsets and size issues. Trading one of them alters that mix today. As Frjohnk pointed out, (though he may have the bar set a bit high), guys don’t become impact players in their first year or two after the draft.

    A veteran allows the players we have to learn, grants them some breathing room, and can have everyone playing better.

    Another rookie means he is being sheltered by players who themselves still need to be sheltered. This is a recipe for failure and a good way to ruin a great prospect. We simply aren’t a good landing spot for young players right now due to lack of mentorship and an inability to shelter inexperienced players while they grow into their roles.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: What about if the additional guy already weighs 210 pounds at 19?

    In answer to those who asked me about the weekend games between the Oil Kings & Raiders, I’ve got a fresh post on the subject at CoH, with some bonus UAlberta Golden Bears content.

    read it this morning. good read. sounds like a great series, despite the apparent disparity between the teams.

    regardless… to the question, I don’t think it changes anything. Draisaitl due to his age and size is probably more ready than any other F in the draft, but I’d keep him in the CHL and I wouldn’t expect much of him for at least a couple of years.

  21. sliderule says:

    I hope they are not thinking of trading Petry or Marincin as part of a package for the mythical number one D.The reason I say mythical is because defenders are just part of a team and rely on partners and teammates to make them so much better than the norm.The drop off in Weber’s play without Suter is an example..A trade for a player like Coburn involving either of those two would be a big mistake.

    On tonites game I am so happy to watch without listening to the CBC crap.There will be no fawning over how great any opposing team rookie is playing or slow motion replays of every mistake Hall or Eberle or Nuge makes.I don’t know where the hate for oilers comes from but the CBC has gone over the edge with their coverage.

  22. kosiork says:

    Henry:
    I’ll be happy if they can keep the sharks under 35 shots.

    In which period? Its a stretch of games like this that makes me wonder why I bought Centre Ice. The miser in me ensures I will watch the games to get my money’s worth.

  23. sliderule says:

    Bruce McCurdy: What about if the additional guy already weighs 210 pounds at 19?

    In answer to those who asked me about the weekend games between the Oil Kings & Raiders, I’ve got a fresh post on the subject at CoH, with some bonus UAlberta Golden Bears content.

    You noticed something I saw in Draisatl at WJC in that he gets a little clumsy if the shift is too long.

    You could see the same thing with Yakimov .

    I don’t think it’s a big problem as it’s probably putting on a lot of growth and weight.

    If vo2 max is still coaching that could be his project.

  24. icecastles says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I wouldn’t expect much of him for at least a couple of years.

    This is exactly why I feel we need to trade the pick. Draisaitl and Eklad are and will be great hockey players. But the cluster is eventually going to become so spread out and diluted that we become exactly what we kept saying we don’t want – a team that makes the playoffs, but is never really a legitimate contender.

    Let’s say the Oilers draft Ekblad. Let’s say Ekblad reaches his peak at 25. Which is pretty optimistic. That’s SEVEN YEARS AWAY. Hall will be nearly 30 by then. Scrivens will possibly be retired or at least past his prime. Perron and Gagner, if they’re still Oilers, will nearly be in their mid-30s. That HAS to be a sobering thought.

    At some point, the Oilers need to plant their feet and improve by actually being a good hockey team and winning the games they play.

  25. gcw_rocks says:

    The goaltenders are set for next year. The goaltending is still a question mark. Neither guy has been number one over a full NHL season.

  26. Jordan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    On the blue… the usage is just brutal all around.

    Not playing Belov, playing Fraser, player klefbom with fraser, playing that pair in the mud, playing Justin with sad, old vets (Nick, Ference) too high up the batting order, playing Larsen (when he plays) way too much…

    it’s all such a mess. half is on Tambo/MacT for the state of the roster; but the other half is clearly on Eakins who continues to make some mighty odd decisions on the blue.

    I think you are right about Larsen. He’s still young enough, has the wheels and skating to convince someone to give him another shot to come up through the minors. But most likely he’ll enjoy a long career in Europe.

    With Belov… I just remain flabbergasted. He played well, when he played. Sure he got exposed on a couple of plays, but no worse than the rest of the roster. Sure, he wasn’t taking on the toughs and he wasn’t getting stuck in the deep end… but he was playing well and seemed to match with Justin well. I have no idea why you wouldn’t take the rest of the season to see if they can repeat their success in a 3rd pairing role.

    It’s almost like after the first half of the season, the team’s coach and management are putting the team in positions to lose as much as possible, without actually trying to tank tambelini style. Good moves to get better players in goal where you need them, but all that really does is stabilize the rudder so you watch the ship burn as it sails into the sunset.

    Sounds like asset management to me. All the verbal is there about trying to win, but all the actions are there to say “We know where we are – let’s maximize our asset values”.

    The fact that the team has managed the wins they have is the shocking part – the goalies look good & the players have found ways to get wins. The end was always on its way – now the question is can we find enough good on the ice to make it bearable to watch, or will it be so bad we must avert our eyes in sadness and shame…

  27. Ca$h-Money! says:

    kosiork,

    You bought center ice for the same reason I did: to watch non-market games. As a child born in the early 80s I became a Bruins fan when my favorite player (Moog) was traded there. I’ve been a fan ever since; they are my clear cut number 2 and thank god for it, because I haven’t had much to cheer for since I turned 9 or so (I”m 30).

    I now find myself cheering for the Sharks, simply because I enjoy their playing style so much and I feel that they have a bunch of players that don’t get the respect they deserve (and they have competent management, which I respect). Even when they play a good team, they set an incredibly high tempo, it’s so much fun to watch. I became even more of a fan when they traded away an “asset” in Murray last year despite being a playoff contender, it showed me that their management group is dialed into reality and will probably build a winner for years to come.

    Don’t get me wrong, I still cheer for the oilers. But understand that the team hasn’t been consistently good since before I was a teenager, and I’m married with kids now. Center Ice allows me to watch Oil games out of loyalty, and Sharks and Bruins games so that I can actually appreciate the sport. It’s a wonderful balance.

  28. Marcus Oilerius says:

    I was having supper last night with a buddy who used to work for Global, and he figures the viciousness with which the CBC panel jumped on the Oilers was the result of an editorial decision by the production team. I asked him why and he said it’s to help Leafs fans get over their loss, so they continue to tune in to games just as the Leafs are facing the possibility of falling out of a playoff spot.

    The idea appeals to me, but I’m not quite sold on it. Would Leafs fans really be watching Flames @ Oilers?

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    Saying ‘the roster is the problem’ is a little like saying ‘the car is the problem’ when your vehicle is not running right. What does it mean exactly and does it solve anything without being more incisive?

    That statement could and probably does mean any of the following:

    1) The roster has gaps at key positions
    2) Players on the current roster are not NHL players
    3) Players on the current roster are NHL players but forced to play above their heads on the depth chart
    4) The roster lacks size
    5) The roster lacks skill on the 4th line
    6) The roster lacks size on the D Corps
    7) Mix is wrong because we’re waiting on D prospects to develop while F starters die on the vine
    8) Goaltenders lacks experience
    9) No depth for key disciplines (FO, PK)
    10) Lacking veteran mentors at key positions

    Rather than wielding it like a dogmatic truism, I think that statement requires more context and frankly, it needs to be questioned more.

    Just plugging in more talent doesn’t appear to fix the problem, as 4 straight blue chip 1st round picks would seem to illustrate. It is entirely possible this team could plug in a suitable 1D, 2D and 2C and still struggle to produce results because of any number of variables that are impacting the production output realized by that talent (coaching, system, development errors, etc.). I think we all could envision a scenario where the Oilers add 2 studs to the lineup in the offseason and still fail to make the playoffs or demonstrate improvement of any real significance.

    IMO, the Oilers have to get to the root what of those issues are. We are at the point now where results should tell us that simply plugging in additional talent is not working as we’re not seeing an appreciable gain in bottom line performance – even with a widely acknowledged talent infusion. Something in this org is intrinsically broken and unless they figure out what it is, it’s entirely conceivable that the Oil will replicate the Islander or Thraser model and not the Pitt or CHI model they’re so desperately mimicking.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    icecastles: This is exactly why I feel we need to trade the pick. Draisaitl and Eklad are and will be great hockey players. But the cluster is eventually going to become so spread out and diluted that we become exactly what we kept saying we don’t want – a team that makes the playoffs, but is never really a legitimate contender.

    Let’s say the Oilers draft Ekblad. Let’s say Ekblad reaches his peak at 25. Which is pretty optimistic. That’s SEVEN YEARS AWAY. Hall will be nearly 30 by then. Scrivens will possibly be retired or at least past his prime. Perronand Gagner, if they’re still Oilers, will nearly be in their mid-30s. That HAS to be a sobering thought.

    At some point, the Oilers need to plant their feet and improve by actually being a good hockey team and winning the games they play.

    I hear you. And, as enamored as I am with Draisaitl I’d trade the pick for true talent under contract for year in the right age bracket 24-28.

    But, the danger is being open… firm stances like “keep/trade the pick” are going to lead down one or the other path: either you end up coveting one of the draft picks too much and cut your nose to spite your face; or you become so desperate for immediate help that you trade the pick for a sub-optimal return.

    MacT has to find a way to be open to make a move on the pick without selling it short. tough damn job.

    The nice thing is… as the draft gets closer more and more teams will be coming to him trying to pry the pick loose. He’ll be in a better bargaining position.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Oh yea, this:

    “The goaltending is set for next year (assuming Fasth recovers)”

    you have to think he’ll be fine by next training camp, right? I didn’t get a sense from the incident it was bad enough to be long term in that sense.

  32. Kosmo Kraemer says:

    For those of you out there who state that the Oilers have not yet solved their goalie problem, I fully agree. Neither goalie has played a lot in a season as of yet. Until they do I will not commit that the Oilers have solved the goalie question.

    MacT needs to go out and obtain two top rated defense to play in front of Petry and Marincin. Put Ference and Jultlz on the third pairing.

    Get a second line centre that has an edge in their play and can actually score. For that reason I would pick Bennett in the draft or trade for one like him.

    Eakins will be here next year, not a question. Now things will get interesting if things don’t go well in the first half of the season.

  33. denny33 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks Bruce – great article/post on Draisaitl’s performance in the playoffs…

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Marcus Oilerius: Would Leafs fans really be watching Flames @ Oilers?

    well, Leafs fans like Cherry, Healy, and Stock were.

  35. rickithebear says:

    Just so we are clear here:

    Flames top 9 producing forwards
    1. Hudler 30 65gm 15G 31A 46P 2years left on contract
    2. Backlund 25 71gm 18G 20A 38P 1yr rthen RFA
    3. Camalerri 31 55gm 23G 14A 37P UFA
    4. Monohan 19 65gm 19G 12A 31P 2yr ELC
    5. Stajan 30 56gm 11G 16A 27P 4Yr @ 3.125M
    6. Coulburne 24 70gm 9G 15A 24P RFA
    7. Glencross 30 28gm 10G 9A 19P 1yr 2.55M
    8. Byron 24 41gm 6G 12A 18P
    9. D. jones 29 48gm 9G 8A 17P
    5 over 27
    3 under 27
    1 under 24
    1 less than 7 years past draft year.

    With 4signed Dmen 27 or older next year.
    Weidman 31,
    Giordano 30,
    Smid 28,
    Butler 27,
    Russel 26

    this is not a rebuilding team.
    this is a veteran core
    2nd last in the west.

    Edmonton
    1.Hall 22 65gm 24G 41A 65P
    2.Enberle 23 70gm 23G 31A 54P
    3.Perron 25 68gm 25G 25A 50P
    4.RNH 20 70gm 16G 32A 48P
    5.Gagner 24 58gm 8G 25A 33P
    6.Yakupov 20 11G 13A 24P
    7. Smyth 38 62gm 10G 13A 23P
    8. Gordon 30 66gm 8G 13A 21P
    9. Hendricks 32 67gm 5G 2A 7p
    3 30+ (our 4th line?)
    2 under 27
    4 under 24
    we need some G production with 3 forwards age 26-30 above fwds 7-9.

    Our D.
    Ference 35
    Petry 26
    Larsen 24
    Schultz 23
    Marincin 22
    Klefbom 20
    we need at least 2 Dmen aged 26 -30 with good comp #’s

    Oh!
    Look the veteran Calgary team beat our young team!
    They are stil fucking 2nd last in the west.
    You know what players 30 and older do?
    They get older, slower, and less productive.
    You know what players 25 and younger do.
    they get older, stronger. improve, and refine their game!

  36. rickithebear says:

    Kosmo Kraemer: Neither goalie has played a lot in a season as of yet. Until they do I will not commit that the Oilers have solved the goalie question.

    Look at Scrivens toronto years as well.
    Top 5 Save% inside 20ft.

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    Rickibear, despite WG’s strawmen efforts to the contrary, I’m not floating this hypothesis on the basis of a single game result. I’m floating it on the basis of 4 years of little to no incremental progress despite an obvious talent infusion. These 1OVs are supposed to have a demonstrable impact on results and it’s not happening in this org?

    Does anyone have an explanation for that? Or, we are just going to blindly buy into the party line that the 5 year rebuild will now take 8 years because we can’t possibly think of a way to get more results out of the team as it’s comprised now – so let’s merrily queue up for the hope opiate known as the entry draft?

  38. G Money says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: regardless… to the question, I don’t think it changes anything. Draisaitl due to his age and size is probably more ready than any other F in the draft, but I’d keep him in the CHL and I wouldn’t expect much of him for at least a couple of years.

    I think the Oilers in the *best case* scenario are two years from the playoffs and three years from being a Cup contender – and that’s if all the right decisions are made, plus a dollop of good luck and good development.

    Trying to do it in a quicker timeframe IMO will achieve exactly what you fear it will achieve – a team like say Phoenix or Nashville that is forever in the playoffs but never remotely a contender.

    So any decision/proposal I put forth here, including drafting Ekblad or Draisaitl rather than trading the pick, is based on that timeline.

  39. PunjabiOil says:

    I think Sam Reinhart will be the top prospect and go 1st overall if Buffalo picks. That said, there is only a 25 percent chance they pick 1st overall.

    The oilers ould draft anywhere from 1-3. There is approximately a 56 percent chance they drop to third overall. 19 percent chance 1st overall. 25 percent chance second overall.

    Reinhart, ekblad, draisaitl. If they pick third, the decision will be easy. If otherwise, will be a tough decision.

  40. denny33 says:

    frjohnk,

    Impact players at 18 years old, Crosby, that’s it.
    ************************************************
    Just off the top of my squre head – Nathan Mackinnon has looked nice as an 18 year old- killing Ryan Kesler in points.

    Impact players at 19 years old, Kane and Stamkos.
    *********************************************************
    Jacob Trouba walked on the jets and is their best D-man. Played nearly 25 min last night.

    Sean Monohan has 19 goals as a 19 year old with Calgary. Sam Gagner has 8.

    Jonas Brodin at 19 last year should have been nominated for Rookie…

    ******************************************************************************

    Not saying we can expect that but when you are picking in the top 3 – elite kids are found in that country and some flourish right away….again, not saying that is the norm.

    Just to repeat what G. Money said – one of our GLARING holes will be filled this June.

    Even Mac T has said it – when you are picking this high – this is Elite skill country.

  41. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Not sure how opiated I am, but frankly, where we are today is a result of a strategic failure of the rebuild process. The idea of tank-draft high-Cup! is obviously stupid and flawed, but seems to be the height of planning that Tambowelini were able to achieve.

    If the process had been done right (20-20 hindsight is better than no hindsight at all), we would have loaded up on mid-pack D draft picks at the start, then built a heavy-lifting veteran core with size and defensive chops but not that much skill (kind of like 12 Boyd Gordon’s) while in the middle of the tanking process. Kind of like the teams that Lowe built and MacT coached for so many years.

    Then once you’ve drafted the elite talent, you have some talented young D maturing at the same time, and you can plug them all into a big disciplined veteran core that can shelter the youngsters for a couple of years until they find their game, and BAM, you have a contender.

    That’s the theory.

    The theory AND reality of the Oilers is the opposite of pretty much everything except the drafting elite talent part.

    So MacT’s unenviable job right now is to fix it, and fix it quick, and do it in a fishbowl.

    So I do not look at the draft as some sort of panacea. It’s merely one logical and necessary step to fix the mess and get InfiniBuild back on track.

  42. M Parkatti says:

    Shameless plug time, hope you don’t mind LT!

    If you’re in Edmonton tomorrow I’m participating in a lunchtime seminar on hockey analytics:

    http://mact.ualberta.ca/News/2014/February/HockeyAnalytics.aspx

    It’s running at noon till one, downtown at the Enterprise Square building, room 2-958.

  43. G Money says:

    PunjabiOil: Reinhart, ekblad, draisaitl. If they pick third, the decision will be easy. If otherwise, will be a tough decision.

    I’d add Bennett to that list. High scoring C, like the rest.

    Given the nature of the draft lottery, that means the Oilers have to finish in the bottom 3 (since there is a high likelihood they’ll be bumped down one spot).

    Draft top 4 and one roster hole is solved in the long term.

    Draft in fifth and now you’re back to the BPA vs drafting for need conundrum. And make no mistake, the Oiler situation has cast some doubt on the maxim “always draft BPA”.

  44. icecastles says:

    Jordan: Good moves to get better players in goal where you need them, but all that really does is stabilize the rudder so you watch the ship burn as it sails into the sunset.

    That is a simply fantastic bit of imagery. Nicely done.

  45. icecastles says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: firm stances like “keep/trade the pick” are going to lead down one or the other path: either you end up coveting one of the draft picks too much and cut your nose to spite your face; or you become so desperate for immediate help that you trade the pick for a sub-optimal return.
    MacT has to find a way to be open to make a move on the pick without selling it short. tough damn job.
    The nice thing is… as the draft gets closer more and more teams will be coming to him trying to pry the pick loose. He’ll be in a better bargaining position.

    Absolutely. In a sense, he’s in an incredibly exciting position. In another, it’s a terrifying one. This summer will be probably one of the great watershed moments for the franchise. Up to this point, many of the big decisions have made themselves (taking Hall for example – there wasn’t really anything else a reasonable person would have done). This year, there are a few ways MacT can go and we won’t likely know for quite some time if it turns out to have been the right call.

    One thing I am dead certain of though: I’m much happier having Craig MacTavish at the tiller for it than Steve Tambellini.

  46. speeds says:

    G Money:

    Draft in fifth and now you’re back to the BPA vs drafting for need conundrum.And make no mistake, the Oiler situation has cast some doubt on the maxim “always draft BPA”.

    I don’t see how any doubt has been cast on the “draft BPA” method. Even those advocating the rebuild never said a team should imagine it can fill every roster hole by drafting without also making good use of trades and free agent signings.

  47. icecastles says:

    Bag of Pucks: despite WG’s strawmen efforts to the contrary

    I think BagOfPucks and Woodguy get a dollar every time they use the word “strawman”.

  48. speeds says:

    icecastles:
    At some point, the Oilers need to plant their feet and improve by actually being a good hockey team and winning the games they play.

    Sure, but why is that point with 10 games to play in this particular season? I’m not saying the team tries to lose the remainder of the games this year or anything, and it’s not like there’s much way for management to control the outcome of the remaining games this season, at this point, but to me the time you’re talking about is next season, not necessarily now.

  49. Marcus Oilerius says:

    denny33,

    Monahan should have spent another year in junior. He had a blistering start, faded, and while he’s not horrible defensively for a draft year rookie, he’s also not great. There’s a lot of talk among Calgary fans that they just burned an ELC year on him for no reason, and he would have been better off in junior anyway, with more ice time.

  50. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Just plugging in more talent doesn’t appear to fix the problem, as 4 straight blue chip 1st round picks would seem to illustrate. It is entirely possible this team could plug in a suitable 1D, 2D and 2C and still struggle to produce results because of any number of variables that are impacting the production output realized by that talent (coaching, system, development errors, etc.). I think we all could envision a scenario where the Oilers add 2 studs to the lineup in the offseason and still fail to make the playoffs or demonstrate improvement of any real significance.

    I don’t think the problem is the “blue chip talent”, which isn’t to say that those players have been perfect and couldn’t still see some improvement in their games. Personally I think it’s more in the remaining depth players – I think that saying “oh, adding another top 3 pick won’t help that” is both right and wrong – Right in the sense that drafting an Ekblad or Reinhart doesn’t change who EDM signs as UFA’s for 9-14F’s or 5-7D, but wrong in that picking an Ekblad or Reinhart is also not the source of that issue, and not something to turn away just because there are problems in other areas.

  51. WeirsBeard says:

    icecastles: Yup. I know there are guys on here actually cheering for losses and drooling for Draisaitl (heh), but I have been following the team long enough that I can’t get behind more distant hope from 18 year-olds. Among other things, drafting an additional guy doesn’t do anything to address the problem of homogeneity of size and skill across our top lines.

    And I wonder how many 1st and 2nd overall draftees we think the Oilers can really afford to hang onto once they start hitting their paydays?

    I have been wondering about the issue of high pick salaries for a while now too. At 3.whatever per season (assuming you factor in bonuses) how many can fit on a team, even with the increasing cap? How many 18y/o provide a value contract at that pricepoint?

  52. WeirsBeard says:

    speeds: I don’t see how any doubt has been cast on the “draft BPA” method.Even those advocating the rebuild never said a team should imagine it can fill every roster hole by drafting without also making good use of trades and free agent signings.

    I don’t understand reticence to the BPA draft theory. Even with the Oil drafting three #1 forwards, they aren’t exactly the 86 Oilers, scoring 5 goals/game. They don’t have “too much skill” up front, as if that would ever be a problem.

  53. bendelson says:

    Can the Oilers finish the season without further embarrassing moments splayed across TSN for the entire country to mock? Will the sad jersey tossing continue? Will there be anymore public displays of bizarro behavior on the bench? Can the coach keep it together? Can Taylor Hall?

    These are the questions. I can’t help but worry that the worst is yet to come.
    Damn, I hope I am wrong.

  54. Lois Lowe says:

    I would rather keep the pick and see what some or all of Klefbom, Gernat, Simpson, Musil can fetch in a youth for experience deal.

  55. AZOIL says:

    icecastles: This is exactly why I feel we need to trade the pick. Draisaitl and Eklad are and will be great hockey players. But the cluster is eventually going to become so spread out and diluted that we become exactly what we kept saying we don’t want – a team that makes the playoffs, but is never really a legitimate contender.

    Let’s say the Oilers draft Ekblad. Let’s say Ekblad reaches his peak at 25. Which is pretty optimistic. That’s SEVEN YEARS AWAY. Hall will be nearly 30 by then. Scrivens will possibly be retired or at least past his prime. Perronand Gagner, if they’re still Oilers, will nearly be in their mid-30s. That HAS to be a sobering thought.

    At some point, the Oilers need to plant their feet and improve by actually being a good hockey team and winning the games they play.

    I agree with Rom on this and can get behind it if I know the return. For me it is a case by case scenario and not a trade the pick no matter what!

    So who do you think we could get for the 2-4th pick? If it is a top C that produces right now sure or a top D but will that happen? Is there a team that is cash strapped that is heavy at C or D and before they have to pay one of their emerging stars they can give him to us? Is there a strong D out there that is on the 2nd pairing but could easily be a top pairing is he was to get out from under the logjam in front of him?

    I think teams that might do something like this could be teams that are perennial winners and never get the chance to draft in the top 5 ever, they might want a go at one of these young guns?

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    GMoney, I agree with your approach, but the one issue with it is, you plug in that vet core to shelter the anticipated prospects and the team finishes higher in the standings as a result.

    The team you describe is very much like the Preds or Flames, good D core, solid vet base, very little high end offensive talent. And the issue is they never finish low enough to get a shot at the true elite picks.

    One of the big issues seems to be that the Oilers were so committed to the tank that they drove the team in a direction where the roster holes are too numerous and too massive to possibly recover from by the time Hall, Eberle, Nuge hit their primary window of opportunity.

    With 20/20hindsight, it IS hard not to argue that even a move like dangling the Hall pick to St Louis for someone like Pieterangelo (who was still emerging at the time)+ St Loo’s 1st rounder might’ve been a very savvy move given the need to stack up the D prospects as the first critical building block.

    But I still keep coming back to the question of why this team isn’t better now? There should be enough talent AT LEAST to climb out of the basement. The fact they can’t tells me this is more than just a roster hole conundrum.

  57. denny33 says:

    ED of the Globe and Mail:

    What the Oilers hoped would happen to their young team did actually happen – but to the Colorado Avalanche, a team with similar assets on paper that has been a far superior team where it counts, on the ice.

    Like the Oilers, the Avalanche took a deliberate step backward a few years ago in order to replenish the prospect pipeline. Both teams have lineups sprinkled with blue-chip high-end draft choices – Edmonton with three No. 1 overall choices, Colorado with three in the top three over the past five seasons.

    The difference is that the Avalanche, under coach Patrick Roy, has turned a lot of the potential belonging to Matt Duchene, Gabe Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon into genuine, bona fide NHL production.

    Colorado ***doesn’t*** have a star-studded defence corps either – it’s Erik Johnson, Jan Hedja and a lot of players you haven’t heard of – but it plays a decent system and goaltender Semyon Varlamov has been excellent.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    Denny33, thanks for that post. I think it underlies the biggest fear of all. What if the Oil just drafted the wrong players with their golden lottery tickets?

    In anointing Stu as ‘The Magnificent Bastard’ we cling to this belief that if we continue to give him bullets, eventually we’ll find our way out of this maze.

    What if the biggest problem that led to the team’s need to rebuild in the first place (i.e. ineptitude at the draft table) persists to this day?

    Oiler management says it finally realizes the game has changed (more defensive, more physical), but when push comes to shove they draft a player like RNH over Landeskog. I sure hope they’re right.

  59. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    This really is right on the mark.

    Also, all I ask for the remainder of the season is that our team plays with cohesion demonstrating some sort of adherence and belief in a ‘system’ and that they play with genuine spirit. Try and win, don’t give a damn inch, stand up for your fellow mates and simply earn your keep. I can handle losses (I think), but play hard – both ways. If this basic minimum benchmark can’t be achieved for me, I’m ready for hard changes. Their collective destiny is in their hands. Don’t f’ing tank and quit.

  60. Rondo says:

    denny33,

    Colorado has a lot of 2-way players in the top 6. They also have great centres.

    Oilers no 2-way players in the top 6

    However sometimes you get lucky where you pick. Colorado may have picked the same #1 ‘s as Oilers if they had the #1 picks

  61. denny33 says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Monahan should have spent another year in junior. He had a blistering start, faded, and while he’s not horrible defensively for a draft year rookie, he’s also not great. There’s a lot of talk among Calgary fans that they just burned an ELC year on him for no reason, and he would have been better off in junior anyway, with more ice time.
    ***********************************************************************
    Don’t disagree….but scoring say 20 goals at the age of 19 – playing for a terrible, terrible Flames team is no easy feat.

    Will also contend Sean is a better 2C than Sam Gagner already….

  62. Hammers says:

    justDOit:
    Flames beat the Sharks last night in a SO. They also humbled the Ducks last week. Could it be that they’re playing better hockey than anyone wants to admit, and that the 8 – 1 drubbing said as much about them as it did the Oilers?

    Your not allowed to tell the truth but You are so correct and we all hate the Flames & Burke .

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    Coming into the draft, there was 2 things that scouts were consistently saying about Landeskog.

    1) He was the most ‘pro ready’ of all the prospects in that draft. He was expected to be ready to contribute in the bigs immediately, but critics say he lacked the upside that Nuge would bring.

    2) Landeskog was widely acknowledged as a natural and vocal leader. Of course, he’s now the captain of a competitive team.

    In choosing not to draft this player in favour of one with more ‘potential’ it reveals A) the Oil are committed to the bpa model B) they probably really wanted a C over a W in this draft C) they are extremely confident in their ability to develop the prospect to reach its true ceiling & D) they felt they had addressed the ‘leadership’ component for the core with the previous year’s Hall pick.

    In other words, a team that was a perennial cellar dweller dragged kicking and screaming towards a rebuild was still steadfastly convinced they have what it takes to pick and groom players with potential over the sure thing. Hubris? It sounds a little ‘Six Rings’ to me.

    In choosing a ‘slight’ player over the more physical Landeskog, it also revealed how the organization still carries this somewhat fatal attraction to the promise of high end skill vs the utilitarian benefits of size AND skill. Contrast this with the Bruins approach, where size to weight ratio is one of the key factors the team considers in choosing their picks (as confirmed by Chiarelli). Have things really changed all that much since Steve Kelly? They still want to take the sexy sports car to the plant instead of the reliable work truck.

  64. Caramel Obvious says:

    denny33:
    ED of the Globe and Mail:

    What the Oilers hoped would happen to their young team did actually happen – but to the Colorado Avalanche, a team with similar assets on paper that has been a far superior team where it counts, on the ice.

    Like the Oilers, the Avalanche took a deliberate step backward a few years ago in order to replenish the prospect pipeline. Both teams have lineups sprinkled with blue-chip high-end draft choices – Edmonton with three No. 1 overall choices, Colorado with three in the top three over the past five seasons.

    The difference is that the Avalanche, under coach Patrick Roy, has turned a lot of the potential belonging to Matt Duchene, Gabe Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon into genuine, bona fide NHL production.

    Colorado ***doesn’t*** have a star-studded defence corps either – it’s Erik Johnson, Jan Hedja and a lot of players you haven’t heard of – but it plays a decent system and goaltender Semyon Varlamov has been excellent.

    This is a pretty good comparison except the Avalanche version of these players are better than the Oilers version. For instance:

    Hall and Duchene: call this a push
    O’Reilly and Ebelre: O’Reilly by a mile
    Landeskog and Hopkins: I choose Landeskog
    MacKinnon and Yakupov: Mackinnon easy

    And that’s without considering Stastny and Parenteau who are surely better than their Oilers equivalents.

    Finally, the Avalanche are near the bottom of the league in Fenwick close, propped up by the third highest PDO in the league.

    The Avalanche have clearly better talent than the Oilers and have benefited from luck.

    This is how far the Oilers have to go.

  65. sliderule says:

    If the oilers pick top three it is almost certain the player will play in nhl.

    If you look over the past five years of picks there are only I believe three picked that high who have not played immediately.

    They almost all struggle a little but are contributing at a high level either in their second or third year.

    Other than Yakupov I think you have to say the oilers picks have done the same.

    Ekblad is the most highly touted NA defenceman since Doughty.It took Doughty a year to acclimate but in his second season he was one of the best defenceman in the Nhl.There is obviously no guarantee but I would defy anyone to give a name other than Weber of a trade that has that sort of upside.

    The centres may have to go back to junior but they are all starting at a weight and build more like Hall than the Nuge so I would expect them to play .

    After the draft the oilers should try to trade one of their scoring wingers for a defending forward like say Couturier .Overpay for a short term three year deal for one of the free agent defenders and with maturation of Nuge and Yak we would at least get to 80 to 90 pts.

  66. Hammers says:

    How bad do you think Buffalo would like another 1st round pick enough for our 1st & Gags for Myers or Erhoff with Stewart or Stafford . Many seem to think Buffalo would love Ekblad & Reinhart so would they trade to get what they really want . Worth Exploring as a “D” & forward would help us to a point of then being able to trading another winger (core player ) for the center we need.

  67. Rondo says:

    sliderule,

    Ekblad would have gone from #5 – #8 in last years draft from what I read.

    Couturier would be a steal , not sure Philly would give him up

  68. FastOil says:

    justDOit:
    Flames beat the Sharks last night in a SO. They also humbled the Ducks last week. Could it be that they’re playing better hockey than anyone wants to admit, and that the 8 – 1 drubbing said as much about them as it did the Oilers?

    Good point. Their PDO on Extra Skater is 98.6 which means they aren’t lucky right now. Team play trumps skill an awful lot of the time which I would say Oiler fans might be aware of.

    DMW’s comment in the last thread about Fenwick not being the book on what makes a coach piqued my curiosity. I thought someone else might be interested in this year’s numbers so I’ll put them here.

    I compared goal differential (GF%), Corsi (CF%), Fenwick (FF%), and shot differential (SF%) for the top 15 teams at even strength in each category with the top 15 in points as listed on ES and NHL.com this morning:

    Correlation
    GF% – 80
    SF% – 66.6
    FF% – 60
    CF% – 53.3

    I agree with LT’s needs list. A ‘good’ centre playing more than Gagner and relieving RNH, combined with a proper partner for Petry and Schulz would dramatically change what happens for the Oilers on the ice.

    Significant minutes of better breakouts and better coverage is going to tip the shot clock and zone time in the right direction, and if they get NHL goaltending they have a chance. The goals will follow, the team confidence and team play will begin a climb up.

    I do think MacT did a great job shoring up the net. Schulz used properly is a great asset and I’ll give him credit that if not overwhelmed he’ll do what’s right (90% chaos instead of 125%). Perhaps Marincin is one of the D needed but he is pretty young to bet the season on. A Schulz Marincin third pairing might be a reasonable bet with an OZ push.

    It’s close as I see it. Close as in close to respectable. Not nearly as bad as it looks. It’s all on MacT’s ability to convince UFA’s or make a trade that doesn’t gut the team. Signings are the better route because it doesn’t cost assets and trading any young top 6 forward for anything less than a legit youngish top 4 D is a loss. It’s the defining time and last stand of the management as to whether they are for real or heading for the guest speaker circuit or the Premier League.

  69. russ99 says:

    I’d also really like to see us move the pick, especially if we lose out on Ekblad as expected.

    We can’t wait another 3-4 years for those other prospects to get to the Hall-Eberle point in their development, it’s time to add NHL-quality pieces to help who we do have to get to the next level.

    Plus we should be able to pick up decent talent in the 2nd round who could fill in in future seasons, you know like other teams not trying to find the next Lucic.

    And while I do have doubts that a playoff bid is possible, nobody will get hurt it we just go for it.

    To be able to do that, again we need NHL players in the following roles:

    2 shutdown wingers, 4th line center who can play PK, 3 defensemen – one for each pairing.

    I wouldn’t mind seeing the Oilers take a flier on a veteran 3rd goalie late in FA. So far, Scrivens – Fasth or as I prefer: Fasth – Scrivens is an average NHL goalie tandem. Better than what we’ve had in years, but still no sure bet for the future.

  70. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule: Ekblad is the most highly touted NA defenceman since Doughty.It took Doughty a year to acclimate but in his second season he was one of the best defenceman in the Nhl.

    I haven’t read anything near this level of praise for Ekblad.

    Most scouts rate him some way behind Jones and miles behind Doughty.

  71. sliderule says:

    Rondo,

    Where did you read that?

  72. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Where did you read that?

  73. Rondo says:

    sliderule,

    Corey Pronman and Brock Otten

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    Interesting quote from Krueger here in an article discussing his appointment with Southampton.

    No one has more information about what’s happening with the team than the head coach. I know that. I’ve been a head coach. I’ve been confronted with political situations, people without all the information trying to influence decisions.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2565804/Mauricio-Pochettino-backing-Southamptons-new-guru-Ralph-Krueger-shows-boss-support.html

  75. Rondo says:

    If Buffalo get the NYI pick this year they would probably take Ekblad 1st and take one of the top 3 forwards.

    Even if Buffalo has only the #1 pick they may take Ekblad because they probably know they are a bad team and their is a strong likelihood they will have a lottery pick next year in the so called Strong draft.

  76. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Wow. That’s interesting.

  77. Bag of Pucks says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Wow. That’s interesting.

    Has to be taken with a grain of salt. He could just as easily be talking about the Swiss National Team as the Oilers, but it is REALLY hard not to envision Kevin Lowe when reading that quote. Or Darryl Katz wanting to draft Yakupov…

  78. FastOil says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Interesting quote from Krueger here in an article discussing his appointment with Southampton.

    No one has more information about what’s happening with the team than the head coach. I know that. I’ve been a head coach. I’ve been confronted with political situations, people without all the information trying to influence decisions.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2565804/Mauricio-Pochettino-backing-Southamptons-new-guru-Ralph-Krueger-shows-boss-support.html

    It seems fairly clear someone is interfering with operations in an unhealthy way. There have been too many inconsistencies. The only constants are Katz, Lowe and TAYLOR STRBA HALL.

  79. OilClog says:

    Caramel Obvious: This is a pretty good comparison except the Avalanche version of these players are better than the Oilers version.For instance:

    Hall and Duchene:call this a push
    O’Reilly and Ebelre: O’Reilly by a mile
    Landeskog and Hopkins: I choose Landeskog
    MacKinnon and Yakupov: Mackinnon easy

    And that’s without considering Stastny and Parenteau who are surely better than their Oilers equivalents.

    Finally, the Avalanche are near the bottom of the league in Fenwick close, propped up by the third highest PDO in the league.

    The Avalanche have clearly better talent than the Oilers and have benefited from luck.

    This is how far the Oilers have to go.

    Errrrr wrong.

    Comparing 3 C’s and a winger to 3 wingers and a center is crazy talk.

    But let’s list it from best down shall we

    Hall. He’s the best of em all by a country mile.
    Duchene. He’s very good but Hall is better.

    The rest are all equal right now.

    Mackinnons rookie campaign is nice, but so was Hopkins and yaks, he just appears real sexy right now because it’s in the now. They’re all brilliant players.

    I’d take Oreilly or Landeskog over Ebs.. Just because of the team needs, not because I believe either are truly superior to Ebs.

    Lt, can’t help but to think that if Eakins spent any time going over his roster before training camp maybe he would of had a better idea at the start… Instead of proclaiming to have not watched any footage at all.. Seems insane to me for a coach to not take a look at what’s he’s inheriting.

  80. sliderule says:

    Rondo,

    Thanks .I will try to google what they said.

  81. OilClog says:

    Bag of Pucks: Has to be taken with a grain of salt. He could just as easily be talking about the Swiss National Team as the Oilers, but it is REALLY hard not to envision Kevin Lowe when reading that quote. Or Darryl Katz wanting to draft Yakupov…

    If the Oilers didn’t take Yakupov every goal he scores for the next 20yrs would be followed by a “what if”… You can’t pass on talents like Yakupov with the 1st you just can’t.

  82. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Where did you read that?

    same places as Rondo.

    Also, LT went through the discipline break downs for the various D last year against Ekblad

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/1/24/power-play

    Jones was doing most of it at evens. Ekblad gets a lot of PP points.

  83. FastOil says:

    OilClog,

    “I’d take Oreilly or Landeskog over Ebs.. Just because of the team needs, not because I believe either are truly superior to Ebs.”

    They both play 200 ft and have a physical game. I’d say they are both better all round players.

  84. Bag of Pucks says:

    OilClog: If the Oilers didn’t take Yakupov every goal he scores for the next 20yrs would be followed by a “what if”… You can’t pass on talents like Yakupov with the 1st you just can’t.

    I’m still holding out hope for Yak. I do believe the sophomore jinx is real for a lot of players. That first year/tour through the league, you can fool a lot of players with moves and skills they haven’t seen before. The second year they start to have a book on you and you’re forced to grow your bag of tricks or you become predicable/defensible.

    Yak was a tough call. They should have had some maturing D in the pipeline by then. I would’ve leaned to the need (Murray) pick over the consensus bpa (Yakupov), but I’m a contrarian. I firmly believe those following the consensus achieve average results in every endeavour – not just sport. BPA only works if the team is smart enough to figure out who the actual BPA is in any given draft and not just the ‘consensus’ BPA. The Oilers haven’t convinced me on this front yet. It takes brass balls to draft a MacKinnon when everyone in your industry is calling for Jones as the BPA. Good on the Avs for having the cahones to go with their own plan/principles over the roar of the consensus crowd.

    I also remained unconvinced this team is smart enough to tailor gameplans and systems to maximize the skills it does have. Yak has a Brett Hull-esque cannon. It’s mystifying to me why more set plays don’t revolve around getting the puck to him in designated spots for one timers. Nuge to Yak should be generating a fairly substantial amount of production by this point. The fact it isn’t is worrisome.

  85. russ99 says:

    OilClog,

    Plus as far as I know, the head coach doesn’t make drafting decisions.

    IMO, he’s talking about Tambellini… :)

  86. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I looked up some of things that they are writing and both have him number one in draft.

    Otten had nothing but praise but I may have missed something.Pronman mentioned that he may not rank as high as McKinnon or jones from last years draft.

    In regard to scoring Ekblad got 9 of his 23 goals at es.Jones got 10 of his14 at evens.I don’t know how you could dock him for having a great shot and contributing more in the PP.He es scoring was about the same on a team that spends a lot more own zone defending than the powerhouse the Winter hawks had.

  87. vangolf says:

    russ99:
    I’d also really like to see us move the pick, especially if we lose out on Ekblad as expected.

    We can’t wait another 3-4 years for those other prospects to get to the Hall-Eberle point in their development, it’s time to add NHL-quality pieces to help who we do have to get to the next level.

    Plus we should be able to pick up decent talent in the 2nd roundwho could fill in in future seasons, you know like other teams not trying to find the next Lucic.

    And while I do have doubts that a playoff bid is possible, nobody will get hurt it we just go for it.

    To be able to do that, again we need NHL players in the following roles:

    2 shutdown wingers, 4th line center who can play PK, 3 defensemen – one for each pairing.

    I wouldn’t mind seeing the Oilers take a flier on a veteran 3rd goalie late in FA. So far, Scrivens – Fasth or as I prefer:Fasth – Scrivens is an average NHL goalie tandem.Better than what we’ve had in years, but still no sure bet for the future.

    The one factor not being mentioned in support of using the draft pick is player control. I don’t mean to feed our inferiority complex, but any trade for a veteran must be considered vis a vis term they have left on their contract. That is why ideally if we move the pick, we move it for a player still on their ELC or RFA years. Trouba is still my #1 target and adding the young offense that a Reinhart could bring may tempt them.

  88. speeds says:

    vangolf,

    I think that’s part of the argument many make in favor of keeping the draft pick (generally, personally I would prefer to keep it but if the right offer came about, sure, you look at moving it), it certainly is part of my argument.

  89. frjohnk says:

    vangolf: The one factor not being mentioned in support of using the draft pick is player control.I don’t mean to feed our inferiority complex, but any trade for a veteran must be considered vis a vis term they have left on their contract.That is why ideally if we move the pick, we move it for a player still on their ELC or RFA years.Trouba is still my #1 target and adding the young offense that a Reinhart could bring may tempt them.

    Totally agree, Braydon Coburn is sometimes mentioned as a player coming here, and he would be a good addition to this club, but he becomes a UFA after 2015-16.

    For example I wouldn’t trade our top pick ( 2nd overall) for Coburn and the flyers first pick ( about 17th overall) because of Coburn becoming a UFA after two years.

    I wouldn’t do that trade even with taking away the UFA factor, but this is just an example of how free agency status could impact trade value.

    I’m in total favor of trading the pick, but only if the value that comes back is there. If there is nothing close to value, they should draft Ekblad, Draisaitl, or Reinhart,

    Oilers need to be BOLD, but not reckless.

  90. Ducey says:

    FastOil: It seems fairly clear someone is interfering with operations in an unhealthy way. There have been too many inconsistencies. The only constants are Katz, Lowe and TAYLOR STRBA HALL.

    The only thing thats clear is that we don’t know what team he is talking about. He was a head coach for 5 years in Austria and then the Swiss national coach. He head coached at least 20 years aside from the one with the Oilers.

    The likelihood is that he isn’t talking about the Oilers at all.

  91. stevezie says:

    OilClog: Errrrr wrong.

    Comparing 3 C’s and a winger to 3 wingers and a center is crazy talk.

    But let’s list it from best down shall we

    Hall. He’s the best of em all by a country mile.
    Duchene. He’s very good but Hall is better.

    The rest are all equal right now.

    Mackinnons rookie campaign is nice, but so was Hopkins and yaks, he just appears real sexy right now because it’s in the now. They’re all brilliant players.

    I’d take Oreilly or Landeskog over Ebs.. Just because of the team needs, not because I believe either are truly superior to Ebs.

    Lt, can’t help but to think that if Eakins spent any time going over his roster before training camp maybe he would of had a better idea at the start… Instead of proclaiming to have not watched any footage at all.. Seems insane to me for a coach to not take a look at what’s he’s inheriting.

    Nah, I think it’s totally legit to compare top young players regardless of position. In fact, I’m not sure on what grounds you are objecting.

    I agree with you that I would take Hall over Duschene, but it’s close.
    O’Reilly over Eberle is a slam dunk.
    I would call RNH vs. Landeskog a push at this point, but I’d lean towards the center with the higher offensive upside.
    I would also take Perron over Parenteau, and by a lot.
    How you can say Yak is equal to Makinnon is beyond me. Yak looked like shot 20% in his rookie year, and displayed significant weaknesses. I still believe in him, but if the Av’s offered a Mak for Yak swap we wouldn’t let them off the phone until it was done.

    I think the talent gap is smaller than CO does, but I think we all agree the Av’s real edge is in their supporting cast and their luck. If you wish to anoint Varlamov as the real deal then you can call it luck/goaltending.

    The Av’s get mocked for having the biggest no-name defence in the league and it is miles better than ours. I still believe a platoon can work, but it requires no weak links, no one who needs an all-star to cover for them. As has been the case for the last several years, we need two more defencemen.

  92. AZOIL says:

    vangolf: The one factor not being mentioned in support of using the draft pick is player control.I don’t mean to feed our inferiority complex, but any trade for a veteran must be considered vis a vis term they have left on their contract.That is why ideally if we move the pick, we move it for a player still on their ELC or RFA years.Trouba is still my #1 target and adding the young offense that a Reinhart could bring may tempt them.

    Trouba looks good, not sure if Jets would want to go backwards. We need a team like the penguins who are right against the cap and can’t pay a young and emerging D.

    He’s a +5 this year with the jets too when guys like Big Dustin B are way negative. http://jets.nhl.com/club/stats.htm

  93. Marcus Oilerius says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I looked up some ofthings that they are writing and both have him number one in draft.

    Otten had nothing but praise but I may have missed something.Pronman mentioned that he may not rank as high as McKinnon or jones from last years draft.

    In regard to scoring Ekblad got 9 of his 23 goals at es.Jones got 10 of his14 at evens.I don’t know how you could dock him for having a great shot and contributing more in the PP.He es scoring was about the same on a team that spends a lot more own zone defending than the powerhouse the Winter hawks had.

    Yeah, Rondo has brought up this Brock Otten guy a couple of times, but other than the preseason draft rankings/early season commentary, there isn’t a critical word about Ekblad to be found. Nothing about being “5-8 if this was last year’s draft” that I could find.

  94. Rondo says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2014/01/nhl-central-scouting-midterm-rankings.html

    Q. I wonder where Ekblad would have gone last year if he was the right age. Ahead of Nurse or behind?

    “It’s certainly an interesting question. I’m sure if you asked 10 scouts, the votes would probably be split.

    It’s a question of upside versus safety. I don’t think there’s any question that Nurse has more upside (not saying Ekblad is a slouch, but Nurse is the more dynamic and creative offensive player). Where as Ekblad is the safer pick because of what he can do defensively already.

    Would you rather have a guy (Ekblad) who seems like a safe bet to be a Chris Phillips/Brent Seabrook kind of player, or a guy (Nurse) who could be Alex Pietrangelo…or he could be Paul Mara?”

  95. Bag of Pucks says:

    C’mon Ducey, you know Krueger’s comment is for the team that fired him over Skype ; )

  96. oliveoilers says:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/oilers-reliance-on-past-glories-is-to-blame-for-current-miseries/

    As always, good to get perspective from the outside, whether we agree with it or not. I’m not liking how the media weathervane seems to being blowing due Oilers, and it doesn’t seem to be a pleasant mid January Chinook either. Might not be the fans or MacT who decides who stays or goes…

  97. Caramel Obvious says:

    OilClog,

    I’d take Hall over Duchene too. However, the guys who run Team Canada have chosen Duchene over Hall two years in a row. That has to be worth something. Hence the push.

    As to the rest the Avalanche young guys are all clearly better and it isn’t particularly close.

    Mackinnon has much better pedigree than Yakupov and has backed it up. ]
    O’Reilly is a whole class of player better than Eberle
    Landeskog and Hopkins are close but Landeskog clearly has the better track record.

    Switching it by position doesn’t help either because O’reilly is etter than Hopkins and Landeskog is better than Eberle.

    I forgot about Perron temporarily so that diminishes the loss on the supporting cast angle a little but even then the Avalanche come out ahead.

    The Avalanche have better players than the Oilers. There is no other conclusion.

    Worse, so do the Jets and the Jets aren’t going to make the playoffs either.

    The Oilers have one of the least talented rosters in the league. The only way to come to another conclusion is to vastly overestimate the quality of Eberle, Hopkins, and Yakupov. These aren’t star players, let alone superstar players.

    The Oilers are a team without high end talent and without depth. That’s the starting point here.

  98. vangolf says:

    AZOIL: Trouba looks good, not sure if Jets would want to go backwards. We need a team like the penguins who are right against the cap and can’t pay a young and emerging D.

    He’s a +5 this year with the jets too when guys like Big Dustin B are way negative. http://jets.nhl.com/club/stats.htm

    Likely a pipe dream then…the other thing is his nasty streak and his near decapitation of Hall in the first game of the season. Probability and facing him for another 10+ years tells me he is going to connect on more than a couple of those.

  99. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Oiler management says it finally realizes the game has changed (more defensive, more physical), but when push comes to shove they draft a player like RNH over Landeskog. I sure hope they’re right.

    Patrick Kane WAS the difference in the Detroit and Boston series last year. Not big, not physical, not defensively responsible.

    The Blackhawks let Kane be Kane. The Oilers should let Hall be Hall. Last year, the Oilers quickly went to 24th and hanging with the back of the pack.

  100. icecastles says:

    oliveoilers: As always, good to get perspective from the outside

    Provided it’s valuable and informed perspective.

    This article strikes me as cherry-picking “journalism” (really just an opinion piece) with no research beyond “hey those are guys from the dynasty, that must be the problem.” It’s hardly a new or unique perspective, there are no interviewed sources, and this article doesn’t really add any insights or opinions that weren’t already out there.

  101. icecastles says:

    godot10: The Blackhawks let Kane be Kane. The Oilers should let Hall be Hall. Last year, the Oilers quickly went to 24th and hanging with the back of the pack.

    The Blackhawks had a supporting cast that made this possible. Mark Fraser isn’t exactly Brent Seabrook or Duncan Keith, and Sam Gagner isn’t John Teows.

  102. denny33 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I looked up some of things that they are writing and both have him number one in draft.
    Otten had nothing but praise but I may have missed something.Pronman mentioned that he may not rank as high as McKinnon or jones from last years draft.
    In regard to scoring Ekblad got 9 of his 23 goals at es.Jones got 10 of his14 at evens.I don’t know how you could dock him for having a great shot and contributing more in the PP.He es scoring was about the same on a team that spends a lot more own zone defending than the powerhouse the Winter hawks had.
    ************************************************************************************
    ***Aaron just last month turned 18 ***

    I think the Draisaitl kid is almost 19…(kidding)

    Ekblad earns four top honors in OHL coaches poll

    Barrie Colts defenseman Aaron Ekblad, No. 3 on NHL Central Scouting’s midterm list of the top North American skaters eligible for the 2014 NHL Draft, won top honors in four different categories in the Eastern Conference of the Ontario Hockey League.

    The results of the OHL Coaches Poll, which enables teams from each conference to recognize the top three players in 20 different categories, were released Wednesday in Toronto.

    Ekblad, considered to be the top draft-eligible defenseman on the board this season, earned first-place finishes for best shot, hardest shot, best offensive defenseman and best defensive defenseman. He also was voted second in the category of best penalty killer, behind Philadelphia Flyers prospect and Oshawa Generals forwards Scott Laughton.

  103. oliveoilers says:

    icecastles: Provided it’s valuable and informed perspective.

    This article strikes me as cherry-picking “journalism” (really just an opinion piece) with no research beyond “hey those are guys from the dynasty, that must be the problem.” It’s hardly a new or unique perspective, there are no interviewed sources, and this article doesn’t really add any insights or opinions that weren’t already out there.

    Agreed, but there we can learn a lot from it, even though, as you said it was an opinion piece. If we take in all the context, such as for whom it was written. The Hockey News is read by over 2 million people, so it isn’t some kid in his basement. I think, as I said, it gives us an indication of how others see the organisation without any kind of bias. These things tend to start with articles such as this and lead to idiots on CBC spouting off about a team that use to school most of them in the 80s. However, people watch, and people listen and logically some of this must eventually disseminate through to the people to whom dealing with us does matter. Like other GMs and UFAs.

  104. denny33 says:

    Darnell Nurse 1995-02-04 18 D 64 13 37 50 91

    Aaron Ekblad 1996-02-07 17 D 58 23 30 53 91

    Will concede the PP totals…but Aaron did play 6 fewer games…

  105. G Money says:

    speeds: I don’t see how any doubt has been cast on the “draft BPA” method.Even those advocating the rebuild never said a team should imagine it can fill every roster hole by drafting without also making good use of trades and free agent signings.

    I do think some doubt has been cast.

    This is because if you draft BPA, at some point to find balance in your roster you are almost certainly going to have to trade away one of those BPAs for quantity and less skill.

    And then you come up against the (equally unproven maxim) that “the team that gets the better player wins the trade.”

    In a successful rebuild, one of those maxims must be false.

    Bag of Pucks: GMoney, I agree with your approach, but the one issue with it is, you plug in that vet core to shelter the anticipated prospects and the team finishes higher in the standings as a result.

    Ah hah! Actually, there is a simple way around that predicament: sign and play the worst goalies possible. Even with that veteran core in place, the team would struggle to make the playoffs even with a good goalie. A terrible goalie in that case is a straight shot to the bottom, since the team can’t score goals and can’t stop goals.

    Remember that those sturdy Oiler teams of the past were always at best scrapping for eight place – but that was with an all-world goalie in net like Cujo.

    The nice thing about leaving that as a deliberate weakness is that you can hope that one of your goalie prospects (who you can leave to mature on the farm) eventually steps up, and if they don’t, the goalie problem is usually not overly tough to address via trade (as MacT just demonstrated with Scrivens and Fasth) or free agency.

  106. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious: The Oilers have one of the least talented rosters in the league. The only way to come to another conclusion is to vastly overestimate the quality of Eberle, Hopkins, and Yakupov. These aren’t star players, let alone superstar players.

    That is a ridiculous statement to make. Ridiculous.

    Eberle is what he is – an elite but complementary right winger. Go pull up the scoring tables on RW and tell me he isn’t. Now tell me if a single player in front of him plays in front of the ludicrously bad defensive core that Eberle does.

    Yak has played 111 games in the NHL under two different coaches already – both rookie coaches by the way. You’re telling me he’s peaked?

    RNH has played 172 games in the NHL under three different coaches already – two of them rookie coaches by the way. You’re telling me he’s peaked?

    And as an exercise in perspective, go look up RNH’s rookie scoring numbers, and then go look up Mackinnon and Duchene and Monahan. Tell me who’s better.

    Ridiculous.

  107. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule: I looked up some of things that they are writing and both have him number one in draft.
    Otten had nothing but praise but I may have missed something.

    I haven’t contested either of those things.

    Your statement wasn’t about whether he was considered an excellent pick, or a bona fide potential 1st OV this year. Your statement was that

    sliderule: Ekblad is the most highly touted NA defenceman since Doughty.

    I contested this statement. which you seem to have backed away from here:

    sliderule: Pronman mentioned that he may not rank as high as McKinnon or jones from last years draft.

    sliderule: In regard to scoring Ekblad got 9 of his 23 goals at es.Jones got 10 of his14 at evens.I don’t know how you could dock him for having a great shot and contributing more in the PP.He es scoring was about the same on a team that spends a lot more own zone defending than the powerhouse the Winter hawks had.

    I’m not docking him. I’m comparing two exceptional players, where you try to take everything into account.

    PP points and EV points are more than simply goals too. If you make your living at evens, you are more valuable and your production is more likely repeatable. That doesn’t mean Ekblad isn’t also a strong even player, or that PP production isn’t important.

    See also Rondo’s other post from Otten, the more recent one.

    If Ekblad is in the conversation with half of the scouts he’s talked to as comparable to Nurse, that means he is very good. But it doesn’t mean he is the best D since Doughty. (note: it doesn’t mean he isn’t either. It simply means this is hardly the open-and-shut case you suggested it was).

  108. godot10 says:

    icecastles: The Blackhawks had a supporting cast that made this possible. Mark Fraser isn’t exactly Brent Seabrook or Duncan Keith, and Sam Gagner isn’t John Teows.

    Fix the supporting cast. Don’t turn Taylor Hall and Nugent-Hopkins into the supporting cast, which is what MacT and Eakins are trying to do.

    Elite talent will never develop into elite players unless you let them be who they are, and then really focus on coaching their situational decision-making to take the errors and mistakes out of their game.

    Taylor Hall is the best attacking player in the entire league. That is how he should be deployed, to attack, and then work on continuously improving the situational and positional decision making.

  109. FastOil says:

    Ducey: The only thing thats clear is that we don’t know what team he is talking about.He was a head coach for 5 years in Austria and then the Swiss national coach.He head coached at least 20 years aside from the one with the Oilers.

    The likelihood is that he isn’t talking about the Oilers at all.

    Or the Oilers and other teams. The interference that I referred to can be seen independent of Krueger’s comments. The summer MacT and the guy shortly after accumulating goons that can’t play says interference or MacT has split personalities or whatever it’s called these days.

    No logic there at all and it hurt the team. We can only hope it wasn’t him and he gains control. Of the evil empire.

    And no to trading a top 3 pick for anyone of the mediocre calibre of Coburn. The sights need to be way higher.

  110. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Well it doesn’t matter you or I are not making the pick.

    The curly haired kid will make the call.lol.

  111. icecastles says:

    oliveoilers: The Hockey News is read by over 2 million people, so it isn’t some kid in his basement. I think, as I said, it gives us an indication of how others see the organisation without any kind of bias.

    People have had this opinion about the Oilers since MacT and KLowe came in over a decade ago. It’s not new.

    godot10: Fix the supporting cast. Don’t turn Taylor Hall and Nugent-Hopkins into the supporting cast, which is what MacT and Eakins are trying to do.

    I see what you’re getting at: fair point.

  112. frjohnk says:

    G Money: That is a ridiculous statement to make.Ridiculous.

    Eberle is what he is – an elite but complementary right winger.Go pull up the scoring tables on RW and tell me he isn’t.Now tell me if a single player in front of him plays in front of the ludicrously bad defensive core that Eberle does.

    Yak has played 111 games in the NHL under two different coaches already – both rookie coaches by the way.You’re telling me he’s peaked?

    RNH has played 172 games in the NHL under three different coaches already – two of them rookie coaches by the way.You’re telling me he’s peaked?

    And as an exercise in perspective, go look up RNH’s rookie scoring numbers, and then go look up Mackinnon and Duchene and Monahan.Tell me who’s better.

    Ridiculous.

    Umm, RNH and Yakupov strengths are as skilled offensive players. And as skilled offensive players they have

    RNH has 48 points in 70 games
    Yak has 24 points in 63 games

    They most likely will become star players but they are not there yet. Perceived value and actual value are two different things.

    There are many reasons why this team sucks, but most fail to realize that most of our “star” players are not actually star players. Maybe some day, but not today

  113. Caramel Obvious says:

    frjohnk: Umm, RNH and Yakupov strengths are as skilled offensive players. And as skilled offensive players they have

    RNH has 48 points in 70 games
    Yak has 24 points in 63 games

    They most likely will become star players but they are not there yet.Perceived value and actual value are two different things.

    There are many reasons why this team sucks, but most fail to realize that most of our “star” players are not actually star players.Maybe some day, but not today

    Indeed. How is this not obvious?

  114. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:

    Ah hah!Actually, there is a simple way around that predicament: sign and play the worst goalies possible.Even with that veteran core in place, the team would struggle to make the playoffs even with a good goalie.A terrible goalie in that case is a straight shot to the bottom, since the team can’t score goals and can’t stop goals.

    Well Tambo got that part right I guess. Shame MacT was left with the sinkhole to start his first ‘bold move’ season.

  115. WeirsBeard says:

    godot10: Fix the supporting cast.Don’t turn Taylor Hall and Nugent-Hopkins into the supporting cast, which is what MacT and Eakins are trying to do.

    Elite talent will never develop into elite players unless you let them be who they are, and then really focus on coaching their situational decision-making to take the errors and mistakes out of their game.

    Taylor Hall is the best attacking player in the entire league.That is how he should be deployed, to attack, and then work on continuously improving the situational and positional decision making.

    Exactly. Move forward with 18 skaters that can play and the defensive game of the kids looks a lot better. How good was Gretzky on the back check? I don’t remember. I do remember him always having the puck in the offensive zone and trying to score goals. Plumbers are easier to find than guys who can score 30+.

  116. WeirsBeard says:

    Caramel Obvious: Indeed.How is this not obvious?

    Maybe that is the caramel secret?

  117. OilClog says:

    frjohnk: Umm, RNH and Yakupov strengths are as skilled offensive players. And as skilled offensive players they have

    RNH has 48 points in 70 games
    Yak has 24 points in 63 games

    They most likely will become star players but they are not there yet.Perceived value and actual value are two different things.

    There are many reasons why this team sucks, but most fail to realize that most of our “star” players are not actually star players.Maybe some day, but not today

    Hahahahahahah

    What was Nuges totals before the shoulder fiasco.

    What were they before Eakins came to be?

    Of his peers, who is playing PK1 time on the other teams currently?

    Yakupov won the rookie scoring title, Eakins came in and played him in the 4th or benched him because at 19 his defensive game has holes…

    Kurger may or may not be the better coach, he is/was the better coach for these kids though.

    If our coach used these players in the same way as they were previously do you really think these numbers would match what were seeing now?

    Kruger had the most important players on our team playing a team game, now they’re trying to kill eachother and we the fans are going to lose out on our RIGHT to finally see this team DELIVER!

    If Eakins had 1 Center to dress like at points last season.. Just how ugly would this be?!? Could it get any uglier then it currently is. Were the most embarrassing franchise in sports right now.

    Eakins said about a week ago about Taylor Halls game turning the corner because they were allowing him to do what he wants out there instead of controlling him. Pretty much admitting he’s killed our offense. IMO

  118. OilClog says:

    WeirsBeard: Exactly. Move forward with 18 skaters that can play and the defensive game of the kids looks a lot better. How good was Gretzky on the back check? I don’t remember. I do remember him always having the puck in the offensive zone and trying to score goals. Plumbers are easier to find than guys who can score 30+.

    I remember a short while ago the Nuge always having the puck.

    They turned him into a defensive specialist now. Much more enjoyable eh

  119. oliveoilers says:

    icecastles: People have had this opinion about the Oilers since MacT and KLowe came in over a decade ago. It’s not new.

    Dude, what have you got against me? lol. “People” is a very sweeping statement. Even during the cup run, when all was rosy? Any articles from back then by creditable journalists/publications when MacT and Lowe were first employed?

    And could you do me one small favour? As you pointed out, the HN article was ‘cherry-picking journalism’. Just like you cherry-picked one sentence from my post. I feel like the rest gives it context, even if it’s to give truth to the rumour that I’m a moron. :-)

  120. Lowetide says:

    A very charged GDT so far! A gentle reminder that we can have differing opinions on things but let’s keep it respectful. Thanks!

  121. Alpine says:

    OilClog,

    I’m all for using offensive players in offensive situations, but someone has to teach these guys the defensive side of the game. Is it not better for them to get used to playing the toughs and playing defense now instead of trying to get them to learn three years from now when they continue to lose? The way the management has grossly purged this team of two-way forwards has left our coaching staff with minimal options in terms of forward deployment.

    Everyone stresses over and over again that our skilled Fs are one-dimensional, but when Eakins makes a conscious effort to discipline them in that regard he gets villified even when he had maybe two or three veteran forwards capable of doing the tough sledding in the first place.

  122. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Rondo: Would you rather have a guy (Ekblad) who seems like a safe bet to be a Chris Phillips/Brent Seabrook kind of player, or a guy (Nurse) who could be Alex Pietrangelo…or he could be Paul Mara?”

    Thanks for the link.

    I don’t think it’s a choice between the two, and obviously that choice depends on the likelihood of success for both (especially Nurse), but yeah, you’re going to choose a good chance at Pietrangelo over a guarantee of Seabrook.

    It just doesn’t seem like anyone is limiting Ekblad’s comparables to Seabrook or Phillips, outside of a few off-mainstream sources. Jones had 56 points in 61 games on a dominant Winterhawks squad. Ekblad has 51 in 58 on a pretty meh Barrie Colts team. Their top two scorers are Athanasiou (4th round pick) and Zach Hall (undrafted 20y/o UFA). Portland had mature high 2nd rounders like Rattie and a couple 3rd rounders in Petan and Leipsic. Everyone on Portland’s top line had at least 15 more points than Athanasiou does for Barrie. I haven’t seen the Colts play, but judging by that team composition, I imagine there are two Barrie Colts teams – the one with Aaron Ekblad on the ice, that wins games, and the one where he’s on the bench, and they lose games. He’s their 3rd leading scorer.

  123. lance says:

    If the defense can’t get the puck forward, even Crosby isn’t going to score.

    Slandering Oiler forwards this season may be a wee bit myopic.

  124. icecastles says:

    oliveoilers: Dude, what have you got against me?

    Nothing. I don’t think I said anything about you, just that the article you linked to wasn’t very insightful or new. unless you are secretly the author.

    oliveoilers: Even during the cup run, when all was rosy?

    You’re picking a few weeks out of a decade plus.

    oliveoilers: Any articles from back then by creditable journalists/publications when MacT and Lowe were first employed?

    From when they were first employed? I don’t those would be what I’d call ‘credible’ if they were judging before first observing. But you’re free to do your own research if you haven’t been following the Oilers for the last several years.

    oliveoilers: And could you do me one small favour? As you pointed out, the HN article was ‘cherry-picking journalism’. Just like you cherry-picked one sentence from my post.

    No. there is nothing more annoying than when people quote entire threads in their responses. If I want to reread what I’ve just read, I can scroll back up. I assume enough intelligence of the readers and posters here that they do the same. Sorry.

    oliveoilers: I feel like the rest gives it context

    Like I said, people can scroll up a few lines if they’ve already forgotten the context of something they likely read less than five minutes earlier.

    oliveoilers: even if it’s to give truth to the rumour that I’m a moron.

    I don’t think you’re a moron. I disagree with a lot of what you say, but actually you seem like you’re always interested in actually discussing your opinions and you stand behind them. Total respect for that.

    …That shirt you’re wearing is pretty ridiculous though.

  125. G Money says:

    frjohnk,

    I have no problem with the line of reasoning that our best players are not particularly performing well right now. Yak slumping, RNH struggling, Eberle hot and cold, Hall’s game off.

    I’ve made the same argument myself when people push the “but we have 3 x 1OV, we should be so much better!” line of reasoning. And my reply has consistently been: “Actually, we only have 1OV right now in Hall. RNH and Yak will get there, but today they are nowhere close. And so we are playing pretty much exactly the way a team with 1 x 1OV will play, which is not very well.”

    So that’s all fair comment.

    I take great exception, on the other hand, to the Mackinnon & Monahan worship in context of the slagging of RNH and Yak in particular.

    Mackinnon is having a terrific season, yes. Not as good as RNH’s rookie season, but terrific.

    Monahan is also having a decent season. Not as good as Yakupov’s rookie season. Not even as good as Gagner’s rookie season. But close.

    We haven’t seen the ceiling for any of these players yet, not even close. I don’t know who the best of the bunch will be (I’ll go on record and say it won’t be Monahan, but other than that, it’s not at all clear, it could be any of the three).

    Suggestions at this point that RNH or Yak are going to be a bust, or that we’ve seen the best they’re going to be, are utterly ridiculous.

    Perspective.

  126. TheOtherJohn says:

    denny33:
    Darnell Nurse1995-02-0418D6413375091

    Aaron Ekblad1996-02-0717D5823305391

    Will concede the PP totals…but Aaron did play 6 fewer games…

    Ekblad has scored more points in fewer games and is a year younger than Nurse.

    So Ekblad is Chris Phillips and Nurse is Pietrangelo.

    Interestingly, Pietrangelo scored the same number of points as Ekblad in his draft year but in 2 more games

    And for those that asked: Phillips had 20% less points than Ekblad in 3 more games 18 years ago in CP’s draft year

    I can see the comparisons—->> not really

  127. VanOil says:

    WeirsBeard: How good was Gretzky on the back check?

    Gretzky was great at back checking he let Kurri do it. I might be romanticizing it a bit but I recall Coffee having the same strategy. Moog and Fuhr might remember it a was what f’n back checking.

    Mind you Gretzky had the puck for such large portions of the game back checking was kind of unfair.

  128. Rondo says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Sometimes it is who you are playing with, I know last year Nurse was on the 2nd unit on the PP.

    Maybe LT should have Brock Otten on his show, He was on last year.

  129. TheOtherJohn says:

    Would suggest that MacKinnon is having a very similiar season to RNH with a slight diffference in ppg. I would think that would be attributable to the fact that RNH did not have Duchene and O’Reilly playing in front of him particularly on the powerplay

  130. Woodguy says:

    There is a lot of comedy in this thread.

    Talk about hurting the offensively gifted forwards by making them back check and having correct position in the dzone is chief among the comedy.

    Watch Marelau, Thorton and Pavelski without the puck (watch close, they’ll have the puck a lot)

    See how they play without the puck and then look at their point totals.

    Also,

    Watch the first pass by the SJS Dmen when the gain possession.

    Count how many times they make a pass that maintains possession and how many times they make a pass or dump that loses possession.

    SJS is a team that know their systems cold and know exactly where everyone is going to be when the puck gets turned over and once they get the puck they tend to keep it.

    It all starts when they gain possession in their own zone.

    They forecheck well too, but count how many times they get possession in their own zone and it turns into a ozone entry with possession.

    Not a whole lot of “off the glass and out” with this group.

  131. Hammers says:

    Just hope that what Eakins has been doing this year is to teach specifically Hall , RNh , Yak , Eberle & Schultz what it is they are supposed to do and what they are accountable for . I’m a glass half full guy so if McT can add the pieces needed namely 2 more “D” and a center and we mix them with the core group we have plus Petry , Marincin , Klefbom ,Gordon , Perron & Hendricks we end up with something closer to a team .No disrespect to Ference , Lander , Gags , Gazdic & Smyth and those in the AHL but they are pieces that fit or will be traded . Goalies are decided . Question is how does McT get the 2 “D” & “C” . That is why the #1 pick must be traded now unless they think that #1 is better than Nurse or any of those top 13 and to be able to play in the 14-15 season . If they get another player who is going back to junior this will be the never ending rebuild .

  132. Bag of Pucks says:

    Alpine:
    OilClog,

    Is it not better for them to get used to playing the toughs and playing defense now instead of trying to get them to learn three years from now when they continue to lose?

    I think it’s best they learn it now. All offense and no defense makes Johnny an entertaining lad headed straight for a Miracle on Manchester.

  133. icecastles says:

    My last post has been “awaiting moderation” for the last half hour. Not sure if it is a glitch, or if I said something inappropriate. Maybe I shouldn’t have made fun of Olive’s shirt… it’s actually a perfectly nice shirt.

  134. frjohnk says:

    OilClog: Hahahahahahah

    What was Nuges totals before the shoulder fiasco.

    What were they before Eakins came to be?

    Of his peers, who is playing PK1 time on the other teams currently?

    Yakupov won the rookie scoring title, Eakins came in and played him in the 4th or benched him because at 19 his defensive game has holes…

    RNH played sheltered minutes in his rookie year, while getting 24 off his 52 points on the awesome power play they had that year. Injuries and tougher competition have put a damper on him increasing his point totals.

    Yakupov may have won the scoring title as a rookie but what has he done this year? He is tied for 260th in scoring points with the likes of Ryan Garbutt, Daniel Winnik, Antoine Rousal and others. Yak has the skill to potentially score 30 goals, maybe 40, but like I said, perceived or potential value ( what could be) is not the same as actual value ( what is right now)

    I am bullish on both these guys, I believe they will both be excellent first line players, they just are not there yet.

  135. Caramel Obvious says:

    Eberle is 81st in even strength points per 60.
    Gagner is 82nd.

    They are bracketed by Frans Nielsen and Cory Conacher.

    Nugent-Hopkins is 153rd.
    Yakupov is 186th.

    Worse they’ve benefited from second assists. If you back those out the numbers drop even further.

    Eberle is 102nd
    Gagner 135th
    Yakupov is 167th
    Hopkins is 169th

    These guys aren’t elite scorers. Each of them had seasons in the past that were inflated by very high shooting percentages which they are in the midst of proving were a fluke.

    In any case, if four of your five best players are guys whose best attribute is their offense and their offense is middling you get this season. A team that is built around offense that can’t score.

    You can blame Eakins if you want but that requires the questionable assumption that he is somehow responsible for their drop in shooting percentages. This is especially questionable considering the team as a whole is scoring at a (slightly) increased rate from past seasons. That means you have to conclude that he has somehow neutered those four while simultaneously increasing the offense of everyone else.

  136. prairieschooner says:

    The Oilers chose BPA every time. They are at the point when they have to cash in those particular chips to fill the holes in the roster.
    We now get to the crux of my argument about BPA , what if they can’t find a dance partner?
    If you know you have to trade one of your top picks, when the head coach sat down with the GM do you think they talked about pumping Yak or Ebs to ensure maximum trade value or was it asset management by Ostrich

    On the debate about the Rockies v Oilers. Jordan Eberle was a 22nd pick, your discussion centred around top 5 picks I think.

  137. TheOtherJohn says:

    Rondo:
    TheOtherJohn,

    Sometimes it is who you are playing with, I know last year Nurse was on the 2nd unit on the PP.

    Maybe LT should have Brock Otten on his show,He was on last year.

    I like Nurse and expect he will be a top 4 D for 12-15 years

    Nothing I said referred to Nurses’s numbers last year. This year, ie EKblad’s draft year, Ekblad is outscoring Nurse in his draft +1 year.In fewer games. And Nurse is definitely playing 1st PP.

    So we compare Ekblad to a non scoring defensive D man Phillips and Nurse to Pietrangelo and AP, in his draft year, outscored Nurse in draft+1

  138. TheOtherJohn says:

    prairieschooner:
    The Oilers chose BPA every time. They are at the point when they have to cash in those particular chips to fill the holes in the roster.
    We now get to the crux of my argument about BPA , what if they can’t find a dance partner?
    If you know you have to trade one of your top picks,when the head coach sat down with the GM do you think they talked about pumping Yak or Ebs to ensure maximum trade value or was it asset management by Ostrich

    On the debate about the Rockies v Oilers. Jordan Eberle was a 22nd pick, your discussion centred around top 5 picks I think.

    O’Reilly is a 2nd round pick

  139. Henry says:

    Woodguy,

    You are right about the Sharks. They are getting old and should be slipping, but don’t because their systems play are very good. They always have a couple options to go with the puck so they can get past almost any defense. They are particularly good setting up on the powerplay.

    I lived in the Bay area for 11 years but never got to like the Sharks at all despite going to quite a few games. I have a lot of respect for them now. Very professional.

  140. frjohnk says:

    G Money,

    I don’t think these guys (RNH, Yak) are busts, or that they will be. But to think of them as stars right now is being a bit far fetched. I believe they will eventually get to stardom. Some players just need time to develop. It took Ryan Johansen’s 4th year to become the player the Blue Jackets envisioned. RNH and Yak just need time, patience and hard work and they will get there.

    I think Mackinnon’s rookie season is basically on par with RNH’s rookie season when looking at even strength points. RNH played first line PP and got almost half his points there, not sure about Mackinnon. Monahan has played soft competition, got a third of his goals in the first 10 games and has a very high shooting percentage. I think he should have went back to junior. I would take Mackinnon or RNH over Monahan everyday.

  141. denny33 says:

    Speaking of comedy….just watched Jake Gardiner’s first few shifts against St.Louis.

    If you ask him for the puck, he will give it to you…..

  142. denny33 says:

    Islanders with three quick goals in the first against Carolina. 3-0

  143. oliveoilers says:

    icecastles:
    My last post has been “awaiting moderation” for the last half hour. Not sure if it is a glitch, or if I said something inappropriate. Maybe I shouldn’t have made fun of Olive’s shirt… it’s actually a perfectly nice shirt.

    Oh look, a tough guy on the internet. Such bravery behind the keyboard. Please read LT’s post above about appropriate responses. Feel free to rip me a new one about my skewed and incorrect opinions. Just keep it civil when getting personal. And for your information, I’m wearing a t-shirt with a picture of a piñata on it saying “I’d hit that.” Only one person in a million would find this funny. I call it the “Icecastles” effect. ;-)

  144. Lowetide says:

    icecastles:
    My last post has been “awaiting moderation” for the last half hour. Not sure if it is a glitch, or if I said something inappropriate. Maybe I shouldn’t have made fun of Olive’s shirt… it’s actually a perfectly nice shirt.

    It had multiple links, which the system flags. Sorry, just released it.

  145. OilClog says:

    Woodguy:
    There is a lot of comedy in this thread.

    Talk about hurting the offensively gifted forwards by making them back check and having correct position in the dzone is chief among the comedy.

    Watch Marelau, Thorton and Pavelski without the puck (watch close, they’ll have the puck a lot)

    See how they play without the puck and then look at their point totals.

    Also,

    Watch the first pass by the SJS Dmen when the gain possession.

    Count how many times they make a pass that maintains possession and how many times they make a pass or dump that loses possession.

    SJS is a team that know their systems cold and know exactly where everyone is going to be when the puck gets turned over and once they get the puck they tend to keep it.

    It all starts when they gain possession in their own zone.

    They forecheck well too, but count how many times they get possession in their own zone and it turns into a ozone entry with possession.

    Not a whole lot of “off the glass and out” with this group.

    No shit, were talking the veteran sharks vs the rookie oilers.

    Were comparing 35yr olds with 21yr olds.

    None of us were talking about their positioning last year.. Were only talking about it because of our new Head coach has killed their offensive game.

    Their offense shouldn’t go down the stank hole because they’re being “better” defensively. This has resulted in them being shit at both!

    Eakins is trying to pound squares through circles.

  146. Eastern Oil says:

    Matheson just mentioned that Yakupov has a fracture in his ankle and played with it for a few games. I wonder if Dreger wants to examine his comment about his commitment level now?

  147. Caramel Obvious says:

    OilClog,

    I specifically refuting this point. Eakins has not killed their offensive game. We all agree that the points are down for the players under discussion. That’s an empirical fact. The question is why? There are two theories on the table.

    The first is that Eakins is responsible for their drop in offensive production. This despite the fact that the team as a whole is getting (ever so slightly) more shots for and more goals at even strength.

    The second is that the players were never that good in the first place. The drop is due to a regression to the mean of their shooting percentages and on-ice shooting percentages.

    I suppose a third theory was that the players were that good in the first place, the talent in shooting percentages was real, but that all of these guys have been unlucky to some degree.

    I don’t see how anyone would choose to believe the first theory when there are such obviously more plausible explanations available. The only explanation is that you decided in advance for personal reasons that this must be Eakins fault.

  148. Mr DeBakey says:

    Eastern Oil: I wonder if Dreger wants to examine his comment about his commitment level now?

    No.
    No he doesn’t.
    Where did you get the idea is wrong for a pundit to be wrong?

  149. justDOit says:

    Here’s an interesting stat:

    Follow

    David Amber
    ‏@DavidAmber
    #Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

  150. Eastern Oil says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Sorry, it’s my first day…..

  151. Ryan says:

    OilClog: No shit, were talking the veteran sharks vs the rookie oilers.

    Were comparing 35yr olds with 21yr olds.

    None of us were talking about their positioning last year.. Were only talking about it because of our new Head coach has killed their offensive game.

    Their offense shouldn’t go down the stank holebecause they’re being “better” defensively. This has resulted in them being shit at both!

    Eakins is trying to pound squares through circles.

    Wow.

    Reminds me of a few years back when Mact was busy stifling the Oilers offense as a coach.

    Maybe he’s back doing it again as the GM.

    That’s an old meme with the Oilers coach stifling their offense. Last time, it turned out that they just weren’t very good. I suspect it’s the same this time.

  152. Lowetide says:

    justDOit:
    Here’s an interesting stat:

    Follow

    David Amber
    ‏@DavidAmber
    #Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

    That’s. just. incredible. Stop all the clocks incredible.

  153. Ryan says:

    One curiosity for me are players like joe Thornton… He’s 34!!

    Iirc players have their peak offensive production between 24-27, then things head south after 30.

    Did someone forget to tell this to Joe?

  154. VanOil says:

    Murder! Murder! Murder!

    Puppies are being killed in Hog town tonight. Someone call the SPCA.

    (Note: they should also be on standby in Edmonton)

  155. Andy P says:

    I just pulled some numbers together, they look jumbled here, but better in a colour coded workbook. My intention was to look for any correlation that would indicate any of our young core being coach killers. The only player still on the team that was here when Quinn arrived, was Gags.

    Eberle, Hall and Nuge arrived under Renney, in 2010 and 2011: Eberle was promoted, Hall was drafted in 2010, Nuge came in 2011. Yak and Jultz came under Krueger. This snapshot does not support any of the young core being coach killers.

    The simplest way I could find to judge how well any coach fared with the Oil, is to look at their Win % during their tenure. MacT was way ahead of the pack, at 46%. MacT had two seasons at 50%, with a low in 2006/7 of 39% when the team gutted itself. But he rebounded to 50% and then 46% when he resigned. Quinn came in and gave us 33%, then Renney with 35%, then Krueger with 40% in the shortened season then Dallas with his 35% to date.

    I would say that Krueger was probably a better bet than our present dude, especially seeing Eakns is benefitting from a somewhat competent GM so far. I don’t think he’s that good, nor do I think he is that bad.

    So what’s left? Bucky, from 2008, under MacT, and Steve Smith, from 2010. Both are Boys on the Bus. Bucky seems to have been groomed for head coach, and preceded Quinn. Wikipedia has this to say about Bucky:
    “Upon retiring, Buchberger was an assistant coach with the Edmonton Road Runners AHL team in 2004–05. He then joined the Oilers management as Development Coach. On August 3, 2007, he was named head coach of the Oilers American Hockey League affiliate, the Springfield Falcons, and guided the team to a 35–35–10 record, the team’s first .500 season since 1998–99. Buchberger then was promoted to the Edmonton Oilers during the 2008 offseason, becoming an assistant coach with them.”
    Steve Smith, on the other hand, was a scout with Chicago before joining the Oil in his present capacity.

    I’m not saying that Bucky is a bad person. I don’t think either or Smith are good Assistants, judging from their results, but I do think that Bucky is the most likely person to be in a position to undermine whoever stands between him and the HC position. As for Steve, really nice guy, good enough D, but should perhaps go back to Scouting, and perhaps Bucky can demonstrate his ability to duplicate Todd’s results when Todd walks this spring.

    Name Year GM % Wins
    MacT 2000 Lowe 46%
    Gags 2007 Lowe
    Bucky 2008 Lowe
    Quinn 2009 Tambo 33%
    Renney 2010 Tambo 35%
    Smith 2010 Tambo
    Eberle 2010 Tambo
    Hall 2010 Tambo
    Nuge 2011 Tambo
    Krueger 2012 Tambo 40%
    Yak 2012 Tambo
    Jultz 2012 Tambo
    Eakins 2013 MacT 35%

    E&OE

  156. Marcus Oilerius says:

    I wonder if the panels are going to rip into Bernier the way they do into Reimer. Reimer has really become the scapegoat in Toronto.

  157. sliderule says:

    Rondo,

    I think Otten might reconsider his comments after the OHL coaches poll came out.

    Ekblad was named eastern conference best defensive and offensive defenceman and hardest shot and best shot and the votes were overwhelming.

    Nurse was rated third hardest shot in eastern conference..

    I am not saying this to knock Nurse I am just saying a player that has all that backing ,Played great at WJC (as commented by Otten ) and scored more goals in a season than Doughty is a special player.

  158. justDOit says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    I wonder if the panels are going to rip into Bernier the way they do into Reimer.Reimer has really become the scapegoat in Toronto.

    In case anyone hasn’t seen her reply to the vicious tweets aimed at her – April Reimer’s response:

    April Reimer ‏@april_reimer Mar 23
    Don’t mistake my silence for ignorance, my calmness for acceptance or my kindness as weakness #goaliewifeproblems
    Collapse

  159. Andy P says:

    Here’s the data grouped by coach, then Assistant, then Player.

    Name Year GM % Wins
    MacT 2000 Lowe 48%
    MacT 2001 Lowe 46%
    MacT 2002 Lowe 44%
    MacT 2003 Lowe 44%
    MacT 2005 Lowe 50%
    MacT 2006 Lowe 39%
    MacT 2007 Lowe 50%
    MacT 2008 Tambo 46%
    Quinn 2009 Tambo 33%
    Renney 2010 Tambo 35%
    Krueger 2012 Tambo 40%
    Eakins 2013 MacT 35%

    Name Year GM
    Bucky 2008 Lowe
    Smith 2010 Tambo

    Name 1st Year GM
    Gags 2007 Lowe
    Eberle 2010 Tambo
    Hall 2010 Tambo
    Nuge 2011 Tambo
    Yak 2012 Tambo
    Jultz 2012 Tambo

  160. OilClog says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    OilClog,

    I specifically refuting this point.Eakins has not killed their offensive game.We all agree that the points are down for the players under discussion.That’s an empirical fact.The question is why?There are two theories on the table.

    The first is that Eakins is responsible for their drop in offensive production.This despite the fact that the team as a whole is getting (ever so slightly) more shots for and more goals at even strength.

    The second is that the players were never that good in the first place.The drop is due to a regression to the mean of their shooting percentages and on-ice shooting percentages.

    I suppose a third theory was that the players were that good in the first place, the talent in shooting percentages was real, but that all of these guys have been unlucky to some degree.

    I don’t see how anyone would choose to believe the first theory when there are such obviously more plausible explanations available.The only explanation is that you decided in advance for personal reasons that this must be Eakins fault.

    Far from it, just went from seeing a bunch of kids go out there and play their tales off win or lose with everyone knowing what the holes were.

    They’re maybe not that good?

    Are you freaking kidding me? Not that good. Full stop.

    These are #1 overall picks that dominated!

    They were delivering as promised then Eakins came in. Now instead of having that positive of these kids progression. We are talking about maybe 2 of the 5 being left in Oiler silks.

    Maybe yea, it is a personal vendetta against Eakins right now.

    The team is scoring more and getting more shots on not.

    Were getting scored on more and giving up more shots.

    Our depth forwards are better, we have Perron.

    Hall, Nuge, Ebs, Yak are all down this season, ALL!

    This guy has benched yak for shit everyone was doing when Yak was one of the only guys moving his feet!

    Woooooo more Nuge on the PK!

    Let’s dress Lander as 2nd winger!

    Yea.. It’s just a personal vendetta against Eakins. That or he’s not a good coach!

    Has he outcoached another coach yet? I dunno.

  161. justDOit says:

    More love for the Flames:

    Follow

    Darren Haynes
    ‏@DarrenHaynes_CP
    ICYMI: Since Jan. 18 (nearly 1/3 of season) Flames are 9th overall, 5th in West, 2nd in Pacific, 5th in GF, 7th in GA pic.twitter.com/JLJ19GM1Ey
    Reply Retweet Favorite More

  162. G Money says:

    Eastern Oil:
    Matheson just mentioned that Yakupov has a fracture in his ankle and played with it for a few games.I wonder if Dreger wants to examine his comment about his commitment level now?

    Freakin’ enigmatic lollygagger. Obviously an untalented bust.

  163. Acumen says:

    Andy P:
    Here’s the data grouped by coach, then Assistant, then Player.

    NameYear GM% Wins

    Quinn2009Tambo33%
    Renney2010Tambo35%
    Krueger2012Tambo40%
    Eakins2013MacT35%

    So Eakins’ winning % with this team is consistent with Quinn’s and Renney’s.

    In Quinn’s case, that was his first sub .500 year since 1991 with these Nucks: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000391991.html

    In Renney’s case, we’ve been clamouring for him ever since he was cut free and he’s been acknowledged and brought in by maybe the most respected coaching staff in the league.

    More fuel to the maybe it’s the team/stop the constant mutiny fire?

  164. Ryan says:

    Andy P:
    Here’s the data grouped by coach, then Assistant, then Player.

    NameYear GM% Wins
    MacT2000Lowe48%
    MacT2001Lowe46%
    MacT2002Lowe44%
    MacT2003Lowe44%
    MacT2005Lowe50%
    MacT2006Lowe39%
    MacT2007Lowe50%
    MacT2008Tambo46%
    Quinn2009Tambo33%
    Renney2010Tambo35%
    Krueger2012Tambo40%
    Eakins2013MacT35%

    NameYearGM
    Bucky2008Lowe
    Smith2010Tambo

    Name1st Year GM
    Gags2007Lowe
    Eberle2010Tambo
    Hall 2010Tambo
    Nuge2011Tambo
    Yak2012Tambo
    Jultz 2012Tambo

    So it looks like the solution to our problems is Mact behind the bench and finding a better GM? :)

  165. Woodguy says:

    LT”s blog was one of the first FancyStat blogs.

    Fancystats is basically using shot data as a proxy for a few different things because shots happen more often and so you can infer using shot data well before you can using goal data because goals are much more rare than shots and much more subject to luck.

    Its always tough to convey to others who have not read all the groundwork how all this works exactly what this means.

    Today I read two posts (actually one post and one tweet) that spells it really well at a very base level.

    1) The tweet

    David Amber
    @DavidAmber

    #Leafs and #Blues goalies have identical .916 save%. Only difference is Blues have allowed 800 fewer shots on goal this season

    Think about that for a long time.

    Dwell on that.

    Chase it around like LT’s dog with a new hedgehog or Matty with some real inside info.

    Then go read Tyler saying the same thing, but in more words and graphs:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6838

  166. Ryan says:

    Andy P,

    Quinn had record man games lost due to injury, half an AHL roster with guys like Ryan Stone who never saw NHL ice again, deslauriers and dubnyk as goalies, no 1st overall picks on the team, the team was trying to lose for the number 1 overall after December, and he did about as well as Eakins.

  167. justDOit says:

    Horrible coverage to start the game. The person mopping behind Ferraro, was completely missing the edges – just going through the motions. Good Gord.

  168. stevezie says:

    OilClog,

    But the point wasn’t, “how good will they be?”, or even “how good could they have been?”, it’s just “how good have they been this season?”

    The answer is, “pretty good”. I don’t think anyone would rate RNH or Eberle as anything less than “good”. Not all-stars, though.

    I’ll actually agree with godot- a team that relies on guys (who have never delivered a superstar NHL season) delivering superstar seasons is poorly constructed. The kids aren’t the problem.

    They haven’t been the solution yet either, and that is clear.

    You blame Eakins, and maybe it is his fault, but I don’t feel that variable is knowable.

    To me, the biggest lesson of the 07-08 season was that it doesn’t matter how good your forwards are if your D can’t get them the puck. That’s where I lob the blame today.

  169. G Money says:

    justDOit,

    I’m getting flashbacks to 2007-08. Remember that?

    The Oilers played slightly sub .500 hockey for most of the season, and were well out of playoff position by mid-February.

    Then the latest crop of “young guns” – Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson – caught on fire and the team from late February went on a 14-5-1 run, igniting hopes of a heroically achieved playoff berth. Instead finished the season three points out of the playoffs and in a lousy draft position to boot.

    But that kind of a finish was super important, because it set all kinds of positive vibes and “momentum” for the 2008 season. Didn’t it?

  170. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: That’s. just. incredible. Stop all the clocks incredible.

    I don’t know why, but it has always sounded best with a Scottish brogue. Coz words drip from their lips “like treacle”.

  171. spoiler says:

    That slap pass to the low slot off the end boards has been there since 1981… if only we had someone in the organization who remembered those days.

  172. spoiler says:

    Frenchie!!!!!!

  173. VanOil says:

    Dirty Frenchman

  174. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Eakins has clearly lost the team, they want him gone.

    (yes, two games ago I was chanting “Fire Eakins” in every post, I am so schizophrenic on him as a coach haha!)

    edit: Islanders win! 5-4!

  175. spoiler says:

    There is certainly a Perron type goal, isn’t there?

  176. Andy P says:

    Acumen: So Eakins’ winning % with this team is consistent with Quinn’s and Renney’s.

    In Quinn’s case, that was his first sub .500 year since 1991 with these Nucks: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000391991.html

    In Renney’s case, we’ve been clamouring for him ever since he was cut free and he’s been acknowledged and brought in by maybe the most respected coaching staff in the league.

    More fuel to the maybe it’s the team/stop the constant mutiny fire?

    No, t’s all Bucky’s fault :)

  177. Acumen says:

    G Money:
    justDOit,

    I’m getting flashbacks to 2007-08.Remember that?

    The Oilers played slightly sub .500 hockey for most of the season, and were well out of playoff position by mid-February.

    Then the latest crop of “young guns” – Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson – caught on fire and the team from late February went on a 14-5-1 run, igniting hopes of a heroically achieved playoff berth.Instead finished the season three points out of the playoffs and in a lousy draft position to boot.

    But that kind of a finish was super important, because it set all kinds of positive vibes and “momentum” for the 2008 season.Didn’t it?

    Kinda sounds like the Flames this year with Monahan/Backlund/Baertschi in the Gagner/Nilsson/Cogliano slots, eh?

  178. Andy P says:

    Ryan: So it looks like the solution to our problems is Mact behind the bench and finding a better GM?

    Sure. Or move out Bucky and Smith ;)

  179. rich says:

    Have we said that Fraser can’t make a pass?

  180. VanOil says:

    That would be a sad way for Jones career to end.

  181. Andy P says:

    Ryan:
    Andy P,

    Quinn had record man games lost due to injury, half an AHL roster with guys like Ryan Stone who never saw NHL ice again, deslauriers and dubnyk as goalies, no 1st overall picks on the team, the team was trying to lose for the number 1 overall after December, and he did about as well as Eakins.

    Which leads to the Bucky question…..

  182. flyfish1168 says:

    Ovechkin +/- is -31 on a team that has a goals differential of -5, just wondering why reporters don’t pick this up. Curious if his trade value is diminished

  183. Lowetide says:

    Oilers playing very well here. Really well.

  184. Kitchener says:

    2nd time this period Perron has thrown a puck at the net from a terrible angle, creating chaos both times.

  185. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: I don’t know why, but it has always sounded best with a Scottish brogue.Coz words drip from their lips “like treacle”.

    It’s true. Great scene.

  186. Lois Lowe says:

    flyfish1168,

    His eyeglow/60 is still off the charts, so no worries.

  187. tcho says:

    Weird to see them outshooting SJ thus far.

  188. spoiler says:

    Ahem, lol, David Perron (26) (Taylor Hall, Jeff Petry)

  189. G Money says:

    Typical California team reffing. On that sequence, Marleau had a blatant hook on RNH that prevented that shot from getting away, and then Lander basically got hook-tackled in the corner.

    No calls.

    Yup.

  190. Kitchener says:

    Florida in OT gets at least one point tonight.

  191. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    There is certainly a Perron type goal, isn’t there?

    True. It’s like a trick shoot in pool, or a gun shot in a Ma and Pa Kettle movie, where it bounces off 11 things and split’s Pa’s part perfectly before landing in the stove and exploding.

  192. Marcus Oilerius says:

    The way the Oil are playing tonight, I’m really glad the Isles won and the Panthers have at least a Bettman bump.

  193. Numenius says:

    What a period. It’s like watching an actual NHL hockey game.

  194. flyfish1168 says:

    Panthers picks up the win over senators

  195. Marcus Oilerius says:

    flyfish1168:
    Panthers picks up the win over senators

    Perfect. We’ve got a cushion in case we pull out another miracle tonight.

  196. Woodguy says:

    That may be the best period EDM has played this year.

    It was their defense that was making the good first pass.

    It was their forwards with the better forecheck.

    Great period to watch.

  197. G Money says:

    Oilers were the better team in the first period.

    Cautions:

    - The Oilers played the Flames even up through 20, then the wheels fell off in a 3 minute span in the second

    - The Oilers often play these big teams (SJ, LA, StL) even up through a period or two. Then the size difference kicks in (or so I think) and the big team walks away with it in the third.

    Maybe tonight the fatigue thing will be offset by the Sharks playing OT last night. If so, good thing Fla got a point and the Isles won!

  198. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: True. It’s like a trick shoot in pool, or a gun shot in a Ma and Pa Kettle movie, where it bounces off 11 things and split’s Pa’s part perfectly before landing in the stove and exploding.

    Ma and Pa Kettle – are you that 100 year old guy who was at the game the other night?

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