SNOW IN SAN ANSELMO

As we do the death march toward another trip over the cliff at Head-Smashed-in Buffalo Jump, let’s go back to the beginning—the opening night death blow dealt by a Troubadour—and see if the roster has any chance to be better in the fall.

  • L1: Taylor Hall-Ryan Smyth-Ales Hemsky
  • L2: Mark Arcobello-David Perron-Jordan Eberle
  • L3: Boyd Gordon-Jesse Joensuu-Nail Yakupov
  • L4: Will Acton-Luke Gazdic-Mike Brown 2:07
  • D1: Ladislav Smid-Jeff Petry
  • D2: Andrew Ference-Justin Schultz
  • D3: Nick Schultz-Anton Belov
  • G: Devan Dubnyk (Jason LaBarbera)

Oilers outshot Winnipeg 38-28 and lost 5-4, Dubnyk’s save percentage was .821 for the game. Now, let’s project the current roster (including injured players and RFA’s) into next season, with an idea about how to improve it.

  • L1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Taylor Hall-Jordan Eberle
  • L2: Sam Gagner-Nail Yakupov-David Perron
  • L3: Boyd Gordon-Jesse Joensuu-Matt Hendricks
  • L4: Anton Lander-Luke Gazdic-Tyler Pitlick
  • D1: Martin Marincin-Jeff Petry
  • D2: Andrew Ference-Justin Schultz
  • D3: Oscar Klefbom-Phil Larsen
  • G: Ben Scrivens (Viktor Fasth)

I think you can point to some positives (Nuge will have a complete summer of training, the goaltending looks more settled, we know the 2line is going to get a new center, and I do think Marincin is a real find) but there’s plenty of work to do.

Question: what would you do? I’ve been kicking around the following:

  • sign Andrei Markov and Tom Gilbert (or Ron Hainsey)
  • acquire a real 2line C (making room by dealing Gagner)
  • signing a Kulemin and using Joensuu as an extra forward

Making the roster:

  • L1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Taylor Hall-Jordan Eberle
  • L2: Artem Anisimov-Nail Yakupov-David Perron
  • L3: Boyd Gordon-Nikolai Kulemin-Matt Hendricks
  • L4: Anton Lander-Luke Gazdic-Tyler Pitlick
  • D1: Andrei Markov-Jeff Petry
  • D2: Martin Marincin-Ron Hainsey
  • D3: Andrew Ference-Justin Schultz
  • G: Ben Scrivens (Viktor Fasth)

Now, there is a helluva lot of blue sky here, but let’s have the conversation. How many men need be added? Who are they? I’d like to hear from you.

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86 Responses to "SNOW IN SAN ANSELMO"

  1. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Why Markov over Niskanen?

    edit: Also noticed Stastny is UFA. Ditch Gagner and instant upgrade.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Why Markov over Niskanen?

    edit: Also noticed Stastny is UFA.Ditch Gagner and instant upgrade.

    Why would you choose Niskanen over Markov?

  3. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Lowetide: Why would you choose Niskanen over Markov?

    The last 35 year old Russian we signed didn’t turn out so good.

    Niskanen, meanwhile, has been enjoying an upward trajectory and has an impressive CorsiRel of 13 on the Pens.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=MATTNISKANEN&f1=2013_s+2012_s+2012_p+2011_s+2011_p+2010_s+2010_p+2009_s+2008_s+2007_s+2007_p

  4. regwald says:

    In your model LT, what would you get for Gagner ? draft pick ?

  5. TheOtherJohn says:

    Sign 2 veteran top 4 D, return Nurse and Ekblad back to junior, acquire a legit big body 2C (who can play), acquire 2 big body wingers on bottom 6 that can actually play (as opposed to Joensuu who cannot play)…..Kulemin and Moss?? and have Klefbom play 40 games in OKC.

    Could we also trade Horak and Ference for Smid?

    And then to get back in your good graces……. Sign Marc Antione Pouliot to a 2 year deal to be 4C/PB

    Seriously though, if we do not add 2 20 minute a night Top 4 D men we will be competing for 15-20 next year. In the longest construction project since the pyramids at Giza.

    And Pouliot? Because we are never gonna get a 3-1 trade and we gotta give you something

  6. Big Dan says:

    Jesse Joensuu will be back in Europe for the rest of his life. I think he moves back this summer. He was a “nice try” but he’s not good enough for the NHL. Lander, Arco, Horak, Pitlick are all better options.

    Paul Stastny will cost too much and I doubt with the options aplenty that he’d want to go to our loser organization. My guess is that he’ll either stay for a good thing in Colorado or take a massive overpay from Dale Tallon.

    I know MacT will get a 2C somewhere – I’d love Jordan Staal – probably more like a Brandon Sutter type considering our tightness to the cap once Nuge hits $6M.

    I am guessing the Oilers will get a first-pairing D (Myers or Markov). Have to shoot for higher than Niskanen – who is a fine depth guy. Darnell Nurse and/or Klefbom and/or Ekblad will need an experienced guy to lean on.

    I’m having second thoughts about Markov. Hearing from Montreal fans, he is slowing fast. Subban, Emelin, and Gorges are all far better.

    Other than that, I expect very little movement from MacT… maybe 1 or 2 more Hendricks types for leadership and battle-winning (not toughness, don’t want to offend Eakins)..

  7. Hall Awaits says:

    LT this is poetry. Want to get Yak going? Bring in Russian pros like Markov, Anisimov and Kulemin. An all Russian line would be something to see on this Oilers team. Two ox’s for the thoroughbred.

    One player I’m curious about for the fourth line is Ryan Reaves out of St.Louis. Big strong 4LRW. More sold on him then Pitlick at this point and he’s right in that 25-30 age we need.

  8. gcw_rocks says:

    CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER

    Oilers 2014/15

    FORWARDS

    Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6.000m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)

    David Perron ($3.813m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.000m) / Nail Yakupov ($0.925m)

    Matt Hendricks ($1.850m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)

    Roman Horak ($0.605m) / Anton Lander ($0.851m) / Mark Arcobello ($1.060m)

    Jesse Joensuu ($0.950m) /

    DEFENSEMEN

    Andrei Markov ($8.000m) / Jeff Petry ($3.800m)

    Ron Hainsey ($4.000m) / Justin Schultz ($2.874m)

    Martin Marincin ($0.730m) / Andrew Ference ($3.250m)

    Oscar Klefbom ($0.894m) /

    GOALTENDERS

    Viktor Fasth ($2.900m)

    Ben Scrivens ($2.300m)

    ——CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)(estimations for 2014-15)

    SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,601,292; BONUSES: $3,340,000CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,498,708

    Markov on a two year deal. Hainsey for two or three years. Grabovski for three years. Kulimen for two years (or Moss, or Winnik), Arco for one year, one way.

  9. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    That NHL record that Magic Johnson will never surrender:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tK8Qjo7HCIk

  10. sliderule says:

    Andrew Ference is a fine person from all reports but if he isn’t our seventh defenceman we the first and second tier fans are in for a lot more hurt.If he wasn’t such a nice guy I would buy him out.

    I like Hainsey who we could have got for a pittance after the lockout but?Markov would take a huge overpay.

    I hope Gagner has a good finish as I think we underrate his offensive skill because of defensive weakness and I would be happy to see him back.He has improved incrementally defensively under Eakins even though I hate to give credit to the arrogant pxxxx.

    At the draft they have three centres that depending on our finish we may have a shot at.The big German with an nhl ready body and slick passing skills.Question is can he get there in time and has the hand eye skill to score himself.There are those that say he doesnt play big.
    Then there is Sam Reinhart who was relied on at WJC in the same way as Nuge only he is in his draft year.At 6-1 and 186 lbs he projects to be over 200 lbs.His goals will be scored much like Eberle but he has the passing skill and vision of Nuge.He is very smart in defensive zone coverage.

    The third centre Sam Bennett has all the things that Mact is lookimg for toughness
    ,speed, leadership and scoring.He is smaller than both at 6-0 and 180 lbs so he would not be the bigger centre they say they need .Brule was also a very aggresive small guy but he couldnt transfer that to Nhl.At any rate you would be getting a centre who projects to score way more than Brule with a mean streak.

  11. RexLibris says:

    Markov is probably a good idea, albeit an unfortunate one in the end as it means that this team is filling crucial roles with re-treads and on-the-cusp-of-retirement players.

    Gilbert-Hainsey is a decent bet. Fayne could be added in a pinch, although he is more of a low-event shutdown kind of player, but he’s big and can play, so that means he’s one better than Mark Fraser. He might be a nice counterpoint to the Justin Schultz chaos. Then again, they could trade for Gardiner and muddy the waters even further.

    So much hinges on what happens with Gagner this summer. Move him and it means the team cannot ignore 2C any longer. Keep him and move him to the wings means that somebody else is on their way out of town so they can sign a 2C as a UFA and/or a 1D.

    Looking over that roster, though, there aren’t really any names that I don’t see as serious possibilities or at the very least reasonable placeholders for similar players (Hainsey/Gilbert, as an example).

    Ultimately this team needs to draft the C and sign the D. In lumbering, lurching steps they might just move closer to that promised “balance” we speak of.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Steve Lansky ‏@bigmouthsports 9m

    At @OHLSteelheads game…and sitting about 25 feet from Kevin Lowe, Paul Coffey, Scott Howson. Wonder what/who they’re here to see? #Oilers

    I suspect the answer is Michael Dal Colle

  13. Mr DeBakey says:

    gcw_rocks: SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $67,601,292; BONUSES: $3,340,000CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,498,708
    Markov on a two year deal. Hainsey for two or three years. Grabovski for three years. Kulimen for two years (or Moss, or Winnik), Arco for one year, one way.

    Muscle?
    Imagining a 14-15 Oiler team without added muscle is wasting your time.
    Greene, Downie etc

  14. Henry says:

    There are some fine ideas here. But Markov has a lot of risk attached to his reward. He will have a 35+ contract and has a track record of injury as impressive as his production. If he ends up next years highest paid player and on the injured list half the year there will be grumbling.

    Gilbert is a better bet. Then Brownlee and Spector can do the grumbling. Still, I’d like to aim higher to get to the promised land. It is hard to spot a good defenseman that can reasonably be considered available though. It would be madness for Florida to trade Kulikov in their spot.

  15. VanOil says:

    Ideal 2nd line Centers are hard to find. They either inconsistent like Anisimov, one dimensional like Gagner, facing the 30 year old decline in performance while demanding big money and term like Grabovski or prohibitively expensive or impossible to obtain like Couturier.

    That’s why I advocate for advocate for taking a chance on an emerging player like Brock Nelson backed up with old pro like Malhotra on the 4th line.

    Nuge and Nelson could learn there craft taking draws against Gordon and Malhotra in practice while being sheltered by them against the beast of the big bad West.

    Nuge, Nelson, Gordon, Malhotra down the middle with Hendricks and Lander on the 3d line wings for depth. Arco in the AHL and Draisaitl spending another year in Jr and then some time in the AHL. Center could become a position of strength.

    Finding two NHL Dmen is the real challenge.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Marco Roy with an assist tonight, he’s 5GP, 0-3-3 in the playoffs so far

  17. Andy P says:

    Compare this:
    Coaching Staff, 2005/6
    Head Coach: Craig MacTavish (41-28-0-13)
    Assistant Coach: Bill Moores
    Assistant Coach: Craig Simpson
    Assistant Coach: Charlie Huddy
    Goalie Coach: Pete Peeters

    To this:
    Coaching Staff, 2013/4
    Head Coach: Dallas Eakins
    Associate Coach: Keith Acton
    Assistant Coach: Steve Smith
    Assistant Coach: Kelly Buchberger
    Goalie Coach: Frederic Chabot

    Then ask yourself what’s the point of building a better roster until we get coaching assistants that can help the coach get competitive results out of whatever roster we have.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hard Nose the Highway is right!

  19. Lowetide says:

    Mark Seidel ‏@MarkSeidel 14m

    Aaron Ekblad just went down with an apparent knee injury and it doesn’t look good. #ouch

    Reply
    Retweeted
    Favorite

    Expand

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Central Scouting breaks down league lists.

    Without giving away the order, this is the closest thing you’ll get to a top 10 from each area at this point

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=27670&navid=nhl:topheads

    From the last thread.

    I don’t think this is getting enough play.

    unless I’m mistaken there’s not a single G in the bunch. not even Demko.

    If we somehow ended up with Ekblad/or trade down for D target (Ehrhoff? Campbell? Buff?) and Barbashev I’d be very, very happy.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Central Scouting’s list won’t resemble the final McKenzie. My bet is we get Demko off the board 24-30 overall.

  22. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide: Mark Seidel ‏@MarkSeidel 14m
    Aaron Ekblad just went down with an apparent knee injury and it doesn’t look good. #ouch

    Mark Seidel ‏@MarkSeidel Ekblad is back! You can breathe again Barrie!

  23. Lowetide says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴: Mark Seidel ‏@MarkSeidel Ekblad is back! You can breathe again Barrie!

    and Edmonton…

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Why would you choose Niskanen over Markov?

    BOTH!!!!

    one of Markov

    one of Niskanen, Fayne, Gilbert, Hainsey, Nikitin

    one of Greene, Belov, Larsen as spare

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Central Scouting’s list won’t resemble the final McKenzie. My bet is we get Demko off the board 24-30 overall.

    I’m convinced that as much as goalie’s a voodoo; goalie scouting is just as nuts, if not more.

    Button doesn’t see much in the guy; others have him in the top 15 of the draft.

  26. Bank Shot says:

    Where’s Ryan Smyth? I’ll be shocked if Lander or Pitlick could beat him out of a job in training camp. I don’t want to see more then one of Lander/Pitlick/Horak on the roster, if any of them even make it. None have shown much at the NHL level IMO.

    I think a lot of the hole filling depends on whether the Oilers end up with Ekblad or one of the centers at the draft.

    If you grab a center then you are looking for a short term fill in that spot. Olli Jokinen or Legwand would be nice. Jokinen signed in Winnipeg so he might be a realistic target for the Oilers.

    Then you need to trade for a top 4 defenseman that projects to be on the rsoter still 5 years from now.

    If the Oilers grab Ekblad then its the other way around. Trade for the younger center and sign a stop gap on D.

    Either way they should be signing as many stop gap players as they can afford, but the composition will be slightly different depending on what they get at the draft.

    Anisimov would be a nice pick up. I wonder how much he would cost.

    I’m still of the opinion that you sign 3 Vet Defenders if you can and force Marincin into the first call up role. He’ll still play 70+ games. Especially if the Oilers land Markov. Having an NHL plug and play call up available would be huge. Its how good teams roll.

  27. gcw_rocks says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    I would rather have good hockey players.

  28. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide: and Edmonton…

    and Buffalo and Florida

  29. Chris says:

    Is there a reason that the Oilers don’t just hire Perry Pearn and Craig Ramsey? We have shortage of coaching talent and I would say rather unfairly these two gents are without work and bring solid resumes that large portions of our current coaching staff don’t have.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    That NHL record that Magic Johnson will never surrender:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tK8Qjo7HCIk

    I grew up a Lakers fan because of Magic and the Dream… and something about Fletch, but ever since Shaq left I haven’t been interested.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Steve Lansky ‏@bigmouthsports 9m

    At @OHLSteelheads game…and sitting about 25 feet from Kevin Lowe, Paul Coffey, Scott Howson. Wonder what/who they’re here to see? #Oilers

    I suspect the answer is Michael Dal Colle

    Is Coffey in the employ of the Oilers now too?

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Chris:
    Is there a reason that the Oilers don’t just hire Perry Pearn and Craig Ramsey? We have shortage of coaching talent and I would say rather unfairly these two gents are without work and bring solid resumes that large portions of our current coaching staff don’t have.

    you do that in the offseason. it’s like publishing bad shit on a friday afternoon.

  33. nelson88 says:

    They fill the #1D spot through trade. Yak plus assets (not in the “core” or 2014 1st round pick) if a marquee player is available and if not, Gagner plus assets for a less traditional #1. Let’s call him Edler

    Draft Draisaitl or potentially trade down a couple spots for Dal Colle and assets.

    Sign an experienced quality 2nd/3rd line winger with size. This year’s Gordon acquisition.

    Nurse is on the roster

    Hall – RNH – Eberle
    Perron – Draisaitl – Yak
    Hendricks – Gordon – UFA
    Smyth/Gazdic – Lander – Pitlick/Horak

    Edler – Petry
    Marincin – Jultz
    Nurse – Ference
    2014′s “Potter”

    Scrivens/Fasth

    Not suggesting this is a major improvement over this years team. More a comment of what MacT can realistically accomplish.

  34. BeerLeagueHero says:

    I’m not completely against signing markov. I don’t question his mobility issues or recent injury problems as I remember a Russian blueliner who skated like he was stuck in sand and blew out a knee in the playoffs…. Gonchar seemed to do OK and had a great impact on Kris Letang’s career. Could he do the same for Jultz?

    I like the addition of Kulemin, would he better or equal to Leo Komarov?

    I’d try damn hard to peddle Gagner to Columbus in a package for Brandon Dubinsky. What is the appeal in Ansimov.

  35. flyfish1168 says:

    Having problems with phlegm fans all week. Today I came back with a good one.

    Since 2005 we have been in just as many playoff rounds as you guys but have won more rounds then you guys.

    Not sure if all of them were able to figure that one out.

  36. cabbiesmacker says:

    Man if Kulemin is the answer for anything Oiler then this team really does stink. This is akin to some around here pining for Stalberg last offseason in that they are both next to useless in anything but a “dragged around by the coattails” role and bring absolutely zero in the leadership department.

    Need to dream a lot higher and a lot better bang for the buck kids. This team needs a few of the hate to lose types.

    Thankfully more and more around these parts are seeing Gagner for what he really is. He and Yakupov are the two I’d move from the current top 6. Blow up that top 6 and use the draft pick to grab some really decent D and build from the back end out. This team would be just fine

  37. Lowetide says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    Man if Kulemin is the answer for anything Oiler then this team really does stink. This is akin to some around here pining for Stalberg last offseason in that they are both next to useless in anything but a “dragged around by the coattails” role and bring absolutely zero in the leadership department.

    Need to dream a lot higher and a lot better bang for the buck kids. This team needs a few of the hate to lose types.

    Thankfully more and more around these parts are seeing Gagner for what he really is. He and Yakupov are the two I’d move from the current top 6. Blow up that top 6 and use the draft pick to grab some really decent D and build from the back end out. This team would be just fine

    Completely disagree. Kulemin isn’t the scorer he was, but that’s a helluva player. 36.3% zone start, -2.1 CorsiRel, tough qual comp.

  38. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Mark Seidel ‏@MarkSeidel 14m

    Aaron Ekblad just went down with an apparent knee injury and it doesn’t look good. #ouch

    Reply Retweeted Favorite

    Expand

    I’ll take Reply for $400 Alex.

  39. DBO says:

    Interesting. Crappy we are once again at this point this soon. So assuming no trade pieces come back, and looking strictly at UFA’s.

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Kulemin-Legwand-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Gordon-Perron
    Smyth-Boyle-Lander
    Arco-Gazdic

    Markov-Petry
    Marincin-Schultz
    Ference-Nikitin
    Klefbom

    Scrivens
    Fasth

    Kulemin, Markov and Nikitin esque (size and decent first pass) make us better. I doubt it happens though. Kulemin I have hoped for a long time along with Boyle (fits all that they say they want). And they better re sign Smyth. He fits everything they say they want and he can still play 4th line, bring professionalism and grit and will come at a discount. Boyle won’t be anything north of $2 mill. Kulemin around $3 mill. Legwand is the issue. Unless we turn Gagner into something packaged to fill 2C, we may have go the 33 year old two way centre thing again (threw up in my mouth a bit). He fits the need.

    Man this is getting painful. I have a giant lack of faith in what the org will do. Learned helplessness and I keep coming back knowing it’ll hurt.

  40. RexLibris says:

    Okay, off topic, I’ll admit, and feel free to slap my hand if I’m thread-jacking, but given the likelihood that this discussion trends towards draft prospects, it isn’t completely out of the blue.

    Something else that might be worth discussing in regards to the draft and the prospects available is how aggressive can we expect Brian Burke to be, and in what direction (trade up, down, or out).

    While he isn’t going to try and engineer the Flames’ roster to sink in the standings so as to improve draft position, I do believe that, faced with year 2 of a rebuild, he could be very aggressive in trying to move up the draft order if the Flames appear to be outside the range of the elite-level prospects – say, 6th overall. That or circumventing the draft entirely and trading out for a young player.

    Taking his comments earlier this season about drafting Bobby Ryan, I think Burke would explore a number of options to take Dal Colle or Ekblad if he can work it. He’s already said that aside from Monahan and Giordano he doesn’t really have any untouchables on the roster – nor should he – so what if the Oilers are picking 3rd and the Flames 5th. Is there a scenario where anyone can see Florida trading down from 2nd overall for the Flames’ pick and a prospect/player?

    I mention this because, like last year but to a lesser degree it would seem, the Flames do have the possibility of directly impacting the Oilers’ draft board. And when one factors in the provincial and divisional rivalry, it may be of strategic value to not only acquire the prospect you desire but also deny to your rivals theirs.

    Just thought it was an idea worth raising.

  41. prairieschooner says:

    Adding a Markov for 2 or 3 years until Marincin and maybe Klefbom have matured and we can hold Nurse in the minors would seem to be a sensible move.
    Surely Mac T needs 2 NHL d Men!

  42. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Had a quick look at Lander here

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/3/27/lander-s-progress

    Lynda Carter.

    Thank you, LT.

    Thank you.

    If one wants to pinpoint a specific moment in time when a certain, shall we say, feminine aesthetic becomes entrenched in our developing brains, mine was the moment I saw Ms. Carter.

  43. Caramel Obvious says:

    gcw_rocks,

    I have to hand it to you. I think the salaries are mostly realistic and I like the fourth line.

    The question is whether that team is good enough to make the playoffs. In your plan a great deal depends on Markov, Grabovski, and Hainsey. It’s very risky and I don’t think it’s enough but I can imagine worse plans.

  44. gvblackhawk says:

    Sam Reinhart 1G 3A through two periods tonight.

  45. gvblackhawk says:

    Kootenay just scored with one second left in the second. Reinhart now 1G 4A.

  46. 106 and 106 says:

    David Legwand would be a responsible, actual NHL player who is good for 50 points a game and holds down a steady 49.0% CF% (5 on 5) this year.

    Big, Smelly Centre
    RNH
    Legwand
    Gordon

    Now that’s starting to resemble depth!

  47. 106 and 106 says:

    nelson88,

    That’s a blueline all other teams in the West would drool to play.

    Burning a year of ELC’s (and hope?) for those young men hopefully isn’t what Mac-T has planned.

    Or… perpetual rebuild?

  48. frjohnk says:

    Making the roster:
    •L1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Taylor Hall-Jordan Eberle
    •L2: XXXXXXX-Nail Yakupov-David Perron
    •L3: Boyd Gordon-XXXXXXXX-Matt Hendricks
    •L4: Anton Lander- Roman Horak-Tyler Pitlick
    Extra Forward- Luke Gazdic

    •D1: XXXXXXX-Jeff Petry
    •D2: Martin Marincin-XXXXXXX
    •D3: Andrew Ference-Justin Schultz
    Extra D man- Oscar Klefbom

    •G: Ben Scrivens (Viktor Fasth)

    I just XXXXX out the players that are not oilers right as we are just speculating who will fill them. I added Roman Horak for the fourth line. I don’t think Gagner is here next year, but if they can not get value for him, he might be our 2nd line center. It might be a situation like Hemsky this past year.

    Needs we can get through free agency or trade.
    2 top 4 D men,
    a 2nd line center,
    a 3rd line winger.

    Our needs from within

    *We need RNH to make the jump from a great 2nd line center/below average 1st line center to a great 1st line center.

    *We need Yak to make a huge jump from 3rd line production to 2nd line. 1st line production would be great.

    *We need a fourth line that is actually better than other teams fourth lines. When was the last time that happened? 2006? Let the three players, Horak, Lander and Pitlick be our 4th line. Whats the worst that can happen? That they are worse than other teams fourth lines? If they can take and make a pass, and they can, they will be better than any other oilers 4th line in years.

    * We need Marincin to continue his upward progress. Add some weight. This guy is gonna be a beauty.

    * We need Petry to take another good step forward.

    * We need Gordon, Hendricks and Ference to not fall off the map.

    * We need Perron, Hall and Eberle to improve on this season and for Hall be prepared to be more of a leader. He is hands down the best player on this team.

    * We need Eakins to learn from his mistakes, use what worked, and grow with this team. This may also include getting a veteran assistant coach to help.

    Does this get us fighting for a playoff spot? I don’t know, I’d like to see us do a Colorado and I think there are many pieces of the puzzle here already like the Aves have. The biggest need is that we need some of the core ( especially Yak) to make some giant leaps. Its possible.

  49. RexLibris says:

    gvblackhawk:
    Kootenay just scored with one second left in the second.Reinhart now 1G 4A.

    If Buffalo takes Ekblad, and I know that Rom is going to give me the gears for this, I’d be over the freaking moon if the Oilers could land Reinhart.

  50. gvblackhawk says:

    RexLibris: If Buffalo takes Ekblad, and I know that Rom is going to give me the gears for this, I’d be over the freaking moon if the Oilers could land Reinhart.

    I would be surprised if Buffalo passed on Reinhart given their offensive prospect pool. But if he was available, I agree with you — I’d take him over Draisaitl. I haven’t had a chance to see Sam Bennett much, but the late birthday sure gets my attention. I think my order would be Reinhart, Ekblad, Bennett, Draisaitl.

  51. sliderule says:

    I can’t believe how many folks keep penciling Ference into the lineup.

    Did no one watch that last game.He was directly responsible for errors that if the rookies had made would have them back in Ok city.He should be covering for Schultz not dragging him down.

    Our pro scouts recommending the oil sign him and Joensuu really suck.

  52. flyfish1168 says:

    Sam Reinhart is proving to be a playoff performer.

  53. denny33 says:

    I get the intent….but Markov turns 36 in December, history of injuries. Hainsey….ouch.

    In a league starved for D, the UFA list looks bleak. Looks like an old man scrap heap.

    Sometimes, there are no easy solutions to your problems.

  54. carefreephil says:

    Is it just me or does Winnipeg match up well as trading partners. The kind of forwards we need (Ladd, Wheeler, Maybe Kane, although he’s a headcase) and defense that look appealing (Bogosian, Byfuglien).

    Would you give up Eberle and Gagner for Ladd? (Draft Draisaitl)

    I think we could get one of their D too.

    Top two lines:

    Hall – Nuge – Yak
    Ladd – Draisaitl – Perron

    Yum! Go all in for Ladd.

  55. Thinker says:

    I actually would chase moulson and/or stasny. It’s not talked about that often, but offence is still a problem. Gilbert and penner would be great depth additions as well. D is pretty weak this year though.
    Hall Stasny Yakupov
    The dream is:
    Moulson RNH Eberle
    Perron Reinhart Penner
    Lander Gordon Hendricks(or a pylon)
    Gazdic

    I can’t see any way defence isn’t still a shit show, but if you get a decent defender for gagner.
    GIlbert Niskanen
    Marincin Petry
    Shultz (Gagner guy-Matt Greene?)
    Ference

  56. gvblackhawk says:

    Thinker:
    I actually would chase moulson and/or stasny. It’s not talked about that often, but offence is still a problem. Gilbert and penner would be great depth additions as well. D is pretty weak this year though.
    Hall Stasny Yakupov
    The dream is:
    Moulson RNH Eberle
    Perron Reinhart Penner
    Lander Gordon Hendricks(or a pylon)
    Gazdic

    I can’t see any way defence isn’t still a shit show, but if you get a decent defender for gagner.
    GIlbert Niskanen
    Marincin Petry
    Shultz (Gagner guy-Matt Greene?)
    Ference

    You are right. Offensive and defensive problems abound. The defense is not going to be an easy fix. It will likely involve a trade that will open up holes in the forward corps. There just isn’t enough organizational depth. Unfortunately, this team is probably going to be a bottom feeder for another year or two at least.

  57. WeirsBeard says:

    Are any of the top picks thought of as NHL ready?

    I’d like legwand, new Pisani, markov, and Gilbert(or equivalent).

  58. admiralmark says:

    RexLibris: If Buffalo takes Ekblad, and I know that Rom is going to give me the gears for this, I’d be over the freaking moon if the Oilers could land Reinhart.

    I keep thinking if NYI’s give up there 1st rounder to Buffalo this year it could potentially have a major impact on Buffalo’s 1st overall pick? It seems to me that if this happens Buffalo will have 1st overall + another top 4-5 pick. Maybe they would then take Ekblad being the consensus BPA. With the thinking they can get a Center at 4th or 5th? That of course would force the Oilers to look at Reinhart or Draistl ? That draft Lottery + NYI’s decision is going to play a big role in what Edmonton acquires at the draft in my opinion.

  59. 719 says:

    Since this is just guesswork, my roster is based on the following presumptions:

    Gagner for Clarkson and 2nd (and the Leafs eat some of his salary)

    Eberle for Evander Kane

    Niskanen is signed by Edmonton, we draft Draisatl and the Oilers keep putting guys in over their head based on potential

    Roster:

    Hall – RNH – Perron

    E. Kane – Draisatl – Yakupov

    Hendricks – Gordon – Clarkson

    Any combination of: Pitlick, Lander, Smyth and Gazdic

    Joensuu is buried in the minors

    D

    Klefbom – Niskanen

    Marincin – Petry

    Ferrence – J. Schultz

    7 Fraser

    Goalies Scrivens and Fasth

  60. Genjutsu says:

    admiralmark: I keep thinking if NYI’s give up there 1st rounder to Buffalo this year it could potentially have a major impact on Buffalo’s 1st overall pick? It seems to me that if this happens Buffalo will have 1st overall + another top 4-5 pick. Maybe they would then take Ekblad being the consensus BPA. With the thinking they can get a Center at 4th or 5th? That of course would force the Oilers to look at Reinhart or Draistl ? That draft Lottery + NYI’s decision is going to play a big role in what Edmonton acquires at the draft in my opinion.

    If the NYI pick is a top 4 there is zero chance they don’t keep it.

    The top 4 is too good to pass on. Plus Garth I’m sure is of the thought: “we can’t be that far off”. With the East as weak as it is and Strome emerging they may well be a playoff contender next year.

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bank Shot: force Marincin into the first call up role.

    No. He’s showed he can play in the league and has earned his spot. If somehow he’s on the third pairing we’re in the pink.

    Hey kids! If you play real well we’ll go out and sign 3 vets & send you down to the farm!

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Strange night for Greg Chase. 1 goal, 2 assists, minus 3.

  63. hoser313 says:

    You guys really think they’ll send Nurse down again? They will be under massive pressure to keep him up.

    Marincin-Petry
    Schultz-Ference
    Nurse-Veteran UFA who we thought would be better.

    Oh, and Fraser at 7.

    This is my prediction. I hope Schultz keeps moving forward. Maybe Klefbom pushes one of the top six out as the season goes in. More baby steps than bold moves.

  64. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide: Completely disagree. Kulemin isn’t the scorer he was, but that’s a helluva player. 36.3% zone start, -2.1 CorsiRel, tough qual comp.

    He’s not a top 6 player though and you’ll have to pay him $ 3.5M per year minimum. He’s also a huge “one night motivated and the next night not” type with zero physicality.

    So in summary he’s a 25 point, $ 3.5 M , 3rd liner.

    Not sure how you see him making the Oilers a better team to be honest.

    Oh and he’s a Russian so there’s that.

  65. Bank Shot says:

    Bruce McCurdy: No. He’s showed he can play in the league and has earned his spot. If somehow he’s on the third pairing we’re in the pink.

    Hey kids! If you play real well we’ll go out and sign 3 vets & send you down to the farm!

    I’m pretty sure this was the same line of thought about Marc Pouliot.

    Guy plays 40 games where he doesn’t get murdered and he is penned onto the second pairing?

    If we are going to dream up fantasy line ups we might as well dream higher than status quo because we all kind of suspect the reality will feature both Nurse and Ekblad on the roster regardless of our hopes.

  66. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    I believe in a previous thread you hypothesized that Krueger’s team got a bump in its CF% and FF% because the kids played together the AHL. Someone over at c’n’b offered up the same theory, so I checked.

    Whereas the full season numbers were CF% of 44.3% and a FF% of 44.70%..

    If you take off the first month of the season, Krueger’s team improves to a CF% of 45.3 and a FF% of 45.2.. The team was actually improving after the first month.

    Thought you might be interested to know. Makes the declining trend under Eakins more damning in my eyes.

  67. nelson88 says:

    106 and 106: That’s a blueline all other teams in the West would drool to play.

    While that may indeed be true I would also suggest it is a blueline that is better than we started with this year.

    In an ideal world I would also keep Nurse out of the NHL but good quality D men don’t grow on trees and if they can get 1 this off season they have done well. If SSM can make it past OS and push deep in the playoffs I think that will be a tell. So far Nurse has dominated the first round and if he can come near that level against teams like Eerie, Guelph and London then it will be easier for the braintrust to make the argument that he is dominating at the OHL level and unfortunately the AHL is not an option.

  68. knighttown says:

    Genjutsu: If the NYI pick is a top 4 there is zero chance they don’t keep it.

    The top 4 is too good to pass on.Plus Garth I’m sure is of the thought: “we can’t be that far off”.With the East as weak as it is and Strome emerging they may well be a playoff contender next year.

    I agree with this. The GM position is so different from the average fan’s position. They MUST believe in their abilities and the team they are putting together because it was their design that built it. Secondly, Garth Snow gives a rat’s fuck about what happens if he finishes last next year and loses out on McDavid because if he finishes last, he ain’t going to be around to see that and likely won’t be employable in the NHL ever again (in a senior management role). If I was in his spot I’d keep this year’s pick precisely because it forces you and ownership to do whatever it takes to compete for a playoff spot next year. Overpay 9 veterans on 1 year deals if you must, but get better quickly.

    Now, all that falls apart if Wang fires Snow before the deadline. The new guy comes in and in a perfect CYA moment recommends giving up the pick now because of the mess of the current roster.

    But yes, I agree that this situation bears close watching because if Buffalo picks twice in the Top 5, Ekblad is a much higher risk.

    My guess?

    Everything aligns well for Buffalo and Edmonton to get what they need however, Tim Murray has shown aggression. I think he extracts an asset from Edmonton by leveraging Calgary because he knows how badly we need Ekblad.

    Edmonton trades #2 overall + Gagner or 2015 2nd or Lander to Buffalo for #1 overall + +/-

  69. Botts182 says:

    LT!!!

    •L1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Taylor Hall-Jordan Eberle
    •L2: Artem Anisimov-Nail Yakupov-David Perron
    •L3: Boyd Gordon-Nikolai Kulemin-Matt Hendricks
    •L4: Anton Lander-Luke Gazdic-Tyler Pitlick
    •D1: Andrei Markov-Jeff Petry
    •D2: Martin Marincin-Ron Hainsey
    •D3: Andrew Ference-Justin Schultz
    •G: Ben Scrivens (Viktor Fasth)

    You’re still not changing the look in the top 6! Yes Anisimov is 6’4, however is softer then the butter in my fridge. And the contract you will have to give Markov would be ridiculous, you are better off trading for a top paring D man and signing a Niskanen for your 2nd pairing.,,IMO. I wouldn’t mind seeing a big centre like Anisimov or Dubinsky come in but they need another Top 6 winger to play against the giants in our conference.

  70. stevezie says:

    Bank Shot,

    No, Marincin has been better than Poo ever was. You could argue he’s been the team’s best D-man.

    In general I agree with your thesis- kids should have to force the issue, not be gifted spots because it “looks like they can handle it”.

    Marincin has forced the issue. Go ahead, pencil him in.

  71. G Money says:

    gcw_rocks,

    You’ll have to show how you came up with those numbers. The charts are pretty starkly contradictory.

    Cumulative 5×5 close FF%: http://i.imgur.com/SX76Xff.png
    Rolling 10 game 5×5 close FF%: http://i.imgur.com/5nhMX9I.png

    Both show clearly that the Oilers peaked in the first game(s) of the season and then it was pretty much all downhill from there (though there was a *massive* PDO bump in the middle of the season which confirms the idea that last year was all about good luck sh% wise and good goaltending).

    (ExtraSkater.com)

  72. kinger_OIL says:

    OK – I said not untill off season, but I’m back: the question is “better roster in the fall”. My question is “what is the probability of an NHL teams that finishes 30 points out of a playoff spot making the playoffs the year after?” I’d guess it’s less than 10%? How many teams that are 30 points out, improve by say 10 wins (which would be 20 points). I’m guessing 1 in 4, and that would get them to around 85 points, and probably you need 90 to be in? So what is the discussion?: “how to build a team to make the playoffs?” “Or improve by 20 points to be in contention for playoffs the year after, or just try to get good enough to make playoffs?” I’m thinking an article about the expectations of a team that finishes so far out of playoffs, what is the expected performance next year: what would be exceptional, and what were those set of circumstances. I suspect the numbers aren’t favourable for those expecting 3 or 4 new players = playoffs…

  73. theres oil in virginia says:

    kinger_OIL: I suspect the numbers aren’t favourable for those expecting 3 or 4 new players = playoffs…

    You mean 3 or 4 more new players? They’ve already added 3 or 4 new players since the beginning of the season. If it’s the right 3 or 4 players, they certainly could contend for the playoffs, but there’s the rub. Adding 3-4 Ryan Joneses and Mark Frasers won’t do it.

  74. Andy P says:

    kinger_OIL:
    OK – I said not untill off season, but I’m back: the question is “better roster in the fall”.My question is “what is the probability of an NHL teams that finishes 30 points out of a playoff spot making the playoffs the year after?”I’d guess it’s less than 10%? How many teams that are 30 points out, improve by say 10 wins (which would be 20 points).I’m guessing 1 in 4, and that would get them to around 85 points, and probably you need 90 to be in? So what is the discussion?: “how to build a team to make the playoffs?”“Or improve by 20 points to be in contention for playoffs the year after, or just try to get good enough to make playoffs?”I’m thinking an article about the expectations of a team that finishes so far out of playoffs, what is the expected performance next year: what would be exceptional, and what were those set of circumstances.I suspect the numbers aren’t favourable for those expecting 3 or 4 new players = playoffs…

    Putting talent under these assistants, is like putting a brick under the throttle of a race car.

    We’ll obviously need to improve the roster as well, of course, but I don’t think we’ll explode out of the gate, fuel the team’s passion for the game and get anywhere in the playoffs, until we get a competent set of NHL Assistants in the offseason to offset the present set of wet blankets.

    Edit: Take a look at my comment earlier in this blog where I compared these assistants (and coach) with the ones that went to the Cup final in 2005/6 and you’ll see what I mean.

  75. gcw_rocks says:

    G Money,

    To clarify

    The Oilers full 48 game numbers were CF% of 44.3% (2344 CF vs 2943 CA) and a FF% of 44.70% (1767 FF vs 2190 FA).

    If you remove the first month, 16 games, it becomes 43.8 CF% (1519 CF vs 1949 CA) and 44.0 Ff% (1142 FF VS 1453 FA).

    If you remove the first two months, over the last twenty games, the Oilers had CF% of 45.3% (976 CA vs 1180 CA) and FF% of 45.2 (726 FF vs 880 FA).

    The hypothesis over at c’n’b was if you removed the first one or two months you get a better look at Krueger because the AHL effect. What we actually see is a very minor difference if we remove the first month, when the effect should have been most pronounced and a trending up over the last 20 games. Hovering around 45% it’s still poor. We can’t compare to the rest of the league because extra skater does not allow you to filter by conference.

    Joys of working excel on a tablet. Source is extra skater

  76. hags9k says:

    Blue sky day, OK I’ll take a swing. It’ll take 2 forwards and 2 D. I go hard for Markov(or other best D available), Bolland, Meszaros, and Penner in that order.

    Nuge – Hall – Ebs
    Bolland – Perron – Yakupov
    Draisatl – Penner – Gagner
    Gordon – Hendricks – Arcobello

    Pitlick, Lander, Gazdic

    Markov – Meszaros
    Marincin – Petry
    Ference – Schultz

    Klefbom, Belov

    We are so screwed.

  77. russ99 says:

    We’re not going to be a playoff team without a shutdown line so our scoring lines aren’t always getting tough sledding. Also our coach needs to realize that such a thing is an effective strategy.

    We need two wingers to pair with Gordon. Players like Kulemin and Winnik would be great pickups.

    Hendricks is better suited to the 4th line and as a 3rd line backup. I’d also like to see a 4th line center added. No more grasping at straws with Smyth, etc. at center. Trevor Lewis would also be a good pickup.

    Less kids and facepunchers, more NHL experience that can play a defensive game.

    Less dragging down our scoring forwards by demanding two-way play constantly, more relying on veterans to do that hard work that the scorers can’t at this point in their development.

  78. knighttown says:

    kinger_OIL:
    OK – I said not untill off season, but I’m back: the question is “better roster in the fall”.My question is “what is the probability of an NHL teams that finishes 30 points out of a playoff spot making the playoffs the year after?”I’d guess it’s less than 10%? How many teams that are 30 points out, improve by say 10 wins (which would be 20 points).I’m guessing 1 in 4, and that would get them to around 85 points, and probably you need 90 to be in? So what is the discussion?: “how to build a team to make the playoffs?”“Or improve by 20 points to be in contention for playoffs the year after, or just try to get good enough to make playoffs?”I’m thinking an article about the expectations of a team that finishes so far out of playoffs, what is the expected performance next year: what would be exceptional, and what were those set of circumstances.I suspect the numbers aren’t favourable for those expecting 3 or 4 new players = playoffs…

    This is a phenomenal point. I’ve always said the best predictor of success in the NHL is to look at last years standings.

    Last year’s teams that missed the playoffs badly were Florida, Colorado (MacKinnon), Tampa, Nashville, Edmonton, Buffalo and New Jersey. Most are still a long ways away but Colorado has made a huge jump and Tampa has made a substantial one. Colorado added MacKinnon and Roy and Varlamov has evolved into a Vezina candidate. They’d also ridden luck. Tampa is similar with Bishop and Cooper and in addition, the East is terrible meaning getting even close to “good” gets you by a bunch of teams.

    The year before was Columbus (Murray), Edmonton (Yak), Montreal, Islanders, Anaheim, Toronto, Carolina, Anaheim, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Tampa, Buffalo. Again, almost all teams were bad the following year but Anaheim is one huge example of a team that got good and has stayed good although Dellow et al have shown they’ve ridden PDO to crazy heights. They’re good (50% Corsi in the West) but not legit.

    The year before was Edmonton (RNH), Colorado (Landeskog), Florida, Islanders, Ottawa, Atlanta, Columbus, New Jersey. These teams were all still bad/middling the next year.

    The year before was Edmonton (Hall) and 12 back!!), Toronto (Seguin), Florida, Islanders, Columbus, Tampa, Carolina, Atlanta. Ugh. That looks familiar.

    The year before was Islanders (Tavares), Tampa (Hedman), Colorado (Duchesne), Atlanta, LA, Phoenix, Toronto, Ottawa. LA is the obvious team that pulled themselves out of the pits of despair to become a really good team as they jumped from 79 to 101 the next year. Doughty’s 2nd season and a lot of youth getting better.

    The year before had Tampa (Stamkos), LA (Doughty), Atlanta, Islanders, St. Louis, Columbus, Phoenix, Toronto, Florida. St. Louis made a mid sized jump from 79 to 92 but were able to keep growing.

    This is pretty startling to me. Once you really start mucking it up for a few years at the bottom it’s really hard to get past anything but mediocre. In 10 years only St. Louis and LA have gone from the basement to the penthouse and in those cases the growth was gradual. Anaheim went from good to bad to (probably) good and Colorado may be a good news story.

    An excellent result for Edmonton next year would be sort of like St. Louis jump of 13 so maybe moving from 68 to 81 based on actual improvement in the underlying metrics. From there they could grow but as Ferraro said the other night on the Calgary game, the next jump is the toughest..from mid-80s to 95+. So many of these teams have had false starts…69-to-86 only to see them stagnate or fall back down.

    The numbers don’t lie. A smart bet on the Oilers next year would be between 68-80 points so still a mile from the playoffs. Optimistic would be 80+ with true actual improvement. It is theoretically possible to go from 68 to 95 but we will need to have an unbelievably lucky PDO to make this happen and in that case, it’ll almost always be followed by a slide back.

  79. Shredder says:

    All I have to say regarding summer signings is…Quality over Quantity.

  80. Evilas says:

    IF the stars aligned and not consulting Capgeek:

    Trade Ebs and Schultz for Coburn and Couturier
    Gagner for Dubinsky
    Sign Moulson, Winnick
    Sign Gilbert, Hainsey
    Sign Frolin
    Re-sign Smyth
    Draft Eckblad

    RHN-Hall-Moulson
    Dubinsky-Yak-Perron
    Couturier-Winnick-Pittlick
    Gordon-Hendricks-Smyth
    Lander

    Coburn-Gilbert
    Marincin-Petry
    Hainsy-Ferrence
    Belov-Frolin
    1st call-up Klefbom

    Nurse/Eckblad – back to OHL (dominate World Jr’s)

    G- Scrivens/Fasth

    Does this work?

  81. misfit says:

    RexLibris:
    Okay, off topic, I’ll admit, and feel free to slap my hand if I’m thread-jacking, but given the likelihood that this discussion trends towards draft prospects, it isn’t completely out of the blue.

    Something else that might be worth discussing in regards to the draft and the prospects available is how aggressive can we expect Brian Burke to be, and in what direction (trade up, down, or out).

    While he isn’t going to try and engineer the Flames’ roster to sink in the standings so as to improve draft position, I do believe that, faced with year 2 of a rebuild, he could be very aggressive in trying to move up the draft order if the Flames appear to be outside the range of the elite-level prospects – say, 6th overall. That or circumventing the draft entirely and trading out for a young player.

    Taking his comments earlier this season about drafting Bobby Ryan, I think Burke would explore a number of options to take Dal Colle or Ekblad if he can work it. He’s already said that aside from Monahan and Giordano he doesn’t really have any untouchables on the roster – nor should he – so what if the Oilers are picking 3rd and the Flames 5th. Is there a scenario where anyone can see Florida trading down from 2nd overall for the Flames’ pick and a prospect/player?

    I mention this because, like last year but to a lesser degree it would seem, the Flames do have the possibility of directly impacting the Oilers’ draft board. And when one factors in the provincial and divisional rivalry, it may be of strategic value to not only acquire the prospect you desire but also deny to your rivals theirs.

    Just thought it was an idea worth raising.

    Burke is always active at the draft, and already being in possession of a top 5 pick will make it much easier for him to take a shot at the top 2 picks. But don’t worry, even if he doesn’t manage to make a move, we’ll be hearing from him a lot. It’s draft day afterall, and his ego requires him to be front and center when everyone is watching.

  82. kinger_OIL says:

    Knighttown: It seems we are on the same page…The narrative now seems to be:”yeah we had a bad year, but we are only 3-4 players away from being playoffs next year, so lets trade our bad guys for good guys, throw in a few overpays then we make playoffs, and Bob’s your uncle”. I wonder what Oiler’s Management view is: are they thinking they can get the next “Pronger trade” and be playoff team next year, or are they realistic in what kind of improvements can be made, based on historical data, and are therefore preparing the off-season on the basis of solid improvements, or thinking, we are all-in next year?. Someone do the work of expected performance from being 30 points out of playoffs and their next year performance. As you said: last year’s performance is the best predictor of next season, and once you’ve been in the basement for multiple years, the correlation is even stronger I suspect….Ergo: last year the Oil was among the worst in the league: that’s the strongest predictive measure of how they will do this year (and this is what actually occurred). This year they were one of the worst in the league – if the expectation is playoffs next year, fans are going to be very disappointed I suspect. let’s set realistic objectives, based on historical precedence for a multi-year basement dweller team, then figure out what kind of players to add.

  83. Botts182 says:

    Evilas: IF the stars aligned and not consulting Capgeek:Trade Ebs and Schultz for Coburn and CouturierGagner for DubinskySign Moulson, WinnickSign Gilbert, HainseySign FrolinRe-sign SmythDraft EckbladRHN-Hall-MoulsonDubinsky-Yak-PerronCouturier-Winnick-PittlickGordon-Hendricks-SmythLanderCoburn-GilbertMarincin-PetryHainsy-FerrenceBelov-Frolin1st call-up KlefbomNurse/Eckblad – back to OHL (dominate World Jr’s)G- Scrivens/FasthDoes this work?

    I could get use to that, I might switch the D pairings around and maybe add someone with a little more grit than Gilbert. But I would be happy with that line up.

  84. misfit says:

    Lowetide:I think you can point to some positives (Nuge will have a complete summer of training, the goaltending looks more settled, we know the 2line is going to get a new center, and I do think Marincin is a real find) but there’s plenty of work to do..

    I have much more faith in MacTavish than I ever did in Tambellini, but I wouldn’t be too quick to assume that new 2C = better 2C. Especially if it’s going to be someone from the 2014 draft.

  85. knighttown says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Knighttown:It seems we are on the same page…The narrative now seems to be:”yeah we had a bad year, but we are only 3-4 players away from being playoffs next year, so lets trade our bad guys for good guys, throw in a few overpays then we make playoffs, and Bob’s your uncle”.I wonder what Oiler’s Management view is: are they thinking they can get the next “Pronger trade” and be playoff team next year, or are they realistic in what kind of improvements can be made, based on historical data, and are therefore preparing the off-season on the basis of solid improvements, or thinking, we are all-in next year?.Someone do the work of expected performance from being 30 points out of playoffs and their next year performance.As you said: last year’s performance is the best predictor of next season, and once you’ve been in the basement for multiple years, the correlation is even stronger I suspect….Ergo: last year the Oil was among the worst in the league: that’s the strongest predictive measure of how they will do this year (and this is what actually occurred).This year they were one of the worst in the league – if the expectation is playoffs next year, fans are going to be very disappointed I suspect.let’s set realistic objectives, based on historical precedence for a multi-year basement dweller team, then figure out what kind of players to add.

    I expect this “multiple years at the bottom” quick sand is a very real thing. The LA and St. Louis rebuild were very slow and steady but required a lot of patience. The thing is, we followed that model and had all of the patience in the world but in the end, the rebuild failed. You can already feel the conversation around the rebuild changing so much. This year we will be 29th with 65-68 points. Three years ago we were 30th with 62 points. Two years ago we were 29th with 68 points. At those moments in time it was all about patience, good drafting etc.

    Now listen to the chatter even among the big heads in the ‘Sphere. The talk is of “Hall’s window” and the ELC’s.

    The highway to hell is littered with teams who tried to force a rebuild.

    Look at the Isles this year trading for Vanek and giving away at worst, Michael Dal Colle and quite possibly Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.

    Remember a few years back when Atlanta was finally in a playoff race at the deadline and traded their future for Keith Tkchuck and Alexei Zhitnik (I think it was their first plus Coburn)? They lost four straight in the playoffs and have not been back since.

    Here’s the thing. As hard as it is for fans to take, the GM must take the long view. They aren’t close to being a perennial contender. The rebuild(s) failed and they need to start again. That does not mean they trade the kids away but it does mean the team should be targeting 2016 and later as a date to be pretty good. It also very clearly does not mean more scorched earth. We’ve learned that losing begets losing and this team needs to start making progress.

    The only way to be a 110 point team is to be a 95 point team for a while. The only way to be a 95 point team is to play at an 82 point team (removing luck) for a while.

    Progress would be 80 points next year and a Corsi approaching 50%.

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