A SHOCK OF BLUE

It seems to me Craig MacTavish is being a little less forthcoming this spring than last, and his vague answers leave us to wonder and speculate. Based on various reports previous to last night, I think we’ve established the club is interested in at least one (possibly more) bridge contract that gives the team another Ference. This would allow the kids to grow into their roles and the team to contend for more wins in the interim.

Last night, and this is tea leaves here, I got the feeling:

  1. Craig MacTavish is a big fan of Oscar Klefbom
  2. The organization highly values Justin Schultz and what he brings.
  3. Martin Marincin received a mention, but it was out of order with what many of us believe he brings. It’s probably nothing, but we should keep it in mind as the spring and summer wears along.
  4. Suggested they would offer Darnell Nurse the option of going to OKC.
  5. The Oilers haven’t decided if they’ll draft a C or D with any degree of certainty. My own personal feeling is that if Ekblad is there, the club will select him, and that Reinhart and Draisaitl are also high on the list. I don’t think we have any idea about the Oilers list beyond those three, but it’s clear they have heavily scouted Michael Dal Colle.
  6. Mentioned he would focus on improving the second line.
  7. The names Sam Gagner and Nail Yakupov are going to be interesting to follow this spring and summer. Call it a hunch on Yakupov, but suspect we all have that idea in the back of our minds.
  8. The final item, and the most important one: MacT left us with the feeling they are prepared to wheel with a very young blue next season, if it comes to that. We should be prepared for a team that boasts veterans Andrew Ference and Jeff Petry, the new hire, and a shock of young blue.

BLUE, BLUE WINDOWS BEHIND THE STARS (2014-15)

  1. Martin Marincin: Playing 19:09 a night, some time on the PK. He’s also starting to find his way offensively a little more. Eakins is running him out there every chance he gets now, I’m confident he’s going to have a very good career. We’ll hear about more mistakes now, he’s going to be out there for the heavy artillery, but this is a gem right here.
  2. Jeff Petry: A play last night will have him in the soup all day today among the fanbase, but he’s a top 4D in the NHL. This is an area where it’s fairly obvious the math delivers what the eye cannot. When a defenseman makes a mistake, he’s the last line and there’s not a lot between the mistake and the net. A guy like Petry gets hammered on goals against, but there’s no support many nights. On a good, structured team, Petry would be solid.
  3. Oscar Klefbom: Eakins has him up to 15:30 a night, and they are tough zone starts (although the qual comp is lower Yemen). I think we should prepare for Klefbom to be on the team next season.
  4. Justin Schultz: He plays 23:26 a night, and the Oilers estimation of Schultz doesn’t jive with the results. The absolute best thing that can happen this summer? Enough arrivals for Schultz to have that TOI back off quite a bit. We’re all over the guy, but he’s playing way too much. A lesser role might see him play a more effective game in all disciplines.
  5. Andrew Ference: He played over 21 minutes a night this season, that’s about 90 seconds longer than a year ago, and of course in more chaotic circumstances. Ference has been pretty much universally panned by Oilers Nation, I find myself pretty much alone is wishing the team had two more. I’d be happy if Edmonton added another Ference this summer, especially a righty.

The guys over 20 minutes a night this season for Edmonton: Schultz, Ference and Petry. For Boston: Chara, Seidenberg, Boychuk.

Fin.

NURSE, SIMPSON, EKBLAD, ASHTON, GARDNER AND DYKE

  • Dillon Simpson: “Freshman year, after a tough year, to be able to get drafted by the Oilers was a great feeling for me and I’m still excited when I talk about it. Then this year, I’m trying to cap off a great year with a good run here. I’ve got all the faith in the world in our team. Then from there, hopefully being able to be a part of the Oilers organization somewhere and trying to play professional hockey will be a fun experience for me.”

Great news! I think we should consider Simpson as a possible Gilbert-Petry, in that he may spend less than one full season in the minor leagues before making his presence known in the NHL. One never knows, but he’s progressed a great deal since heading to North Dakota.

It looks like Nurse is heading to the Barons, I thought it might be a plan (since OKC is fighting for a playoff spot) to bring him right to the NHL for a week. Maybe have him play Saturday, practice with the team for a day, and then head down to the AHL next week. Either way, there’s every chance Nurse has played his final junior game. We’ll see.

The Oilers will draft 1,2,3 or 4 this summer. My guess for their list:

  1. Aaron Ekblad
  2. Sam Reinhart
  3. Leon Draisaitl
  4. Michael Dal Colle

I think there’s a chance they trade the pick if they select fourth and Ekblad, Reinhart and Draisaitl are chosen.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

tomei10

 At 10 this morning, the Lowdown gets busy on several fronts. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey: Oilers, draft, some of those Barons.
  • Nathan Dempsey, former NHLer and Instructor at Vimy Hockey. We’ll discuss the Alzheimer’s Faceoff fundraiser this weekend.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings pbp. Train keeps rolling! A big night for Moroz and the OK last night.
  • Harrison Mooney, Puck Daddy and Pass it to Bulis. They’ve crowned Trevor Linden King of the Left Coast!
  • Andrew Bucholtz, 55 yard line. Eskimos and the draft.

@Lowetide_ or 10-1260 text. It’ll be a fun morning!

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124 Responses to "A SHOCK OF BLUE"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Why do think Sam Bennett has not been mentioned. Given he was ranked #1 by CS. Also if some scouts think his potential is J. Toews, you would think this is the exact centre Oilers want.

  2. LMHF#1 says:

    The commentary (or lack thereof) on Marincin worries me greatly. He could be the best of the group and also might get shipped off this summer.

  3. delooper says:

    Rondo: e

    I would imagine it’s because he’s too likely to be gone before the Oilers pick.

  4. Woodguy says:

    It was mentioned yesterday that other high end Dmen are starting on other teams in their draft +2 year so we shouldn’t get our panties in a bunch if Nurse makes the team.

    I agree and disagree with this.

    I have no idea how Nurse will look against NHLers, I just know that the jump from junior to the NHL is huge as per everyday Dman who has made it.

    Often these kids can be broken in at this age, if their ice time is tightly controlled.

    The problem on the OIlers is that Marincin and Klef are rookies, Shultz is almost a rookie and Ference is above his head unless in the 3rd pairing.

    There’s no where to hide Nurse so his head isn’t kicked in.

    MacT talked about a bridge vet.

    If you bring one in and you aren’t moving anyone out, there’s no room for Nurse unless you want to burn year 1 of the ELC with him as the 7th Dman.

    Not the worst thing in the world, but not the best.

    Do you think MacT plans on going:

    Vet-Shultz
    Marincin-Petry
    Klef-Ference
    Nurse

    Man that’s a lot of young D.

  5. delooper says:

    Woodguy:
    Do you think MacT plans on going:

    Vet-Shultz
    Marincin-Petry
    Klef-Ference
    Nurse

    Man that’s a lot of young D.

    At least in spurts it should be a much better D core than the Oilers have been icing in years. If several of the rookies or near-rookies struggle, their goalies will have to be superstars.

  6. RBB says:

    Woodguy:

    Do you think MacT plans on going:

    Vet-Shultz
    Marincin-Petry
    Klef-Ference
    Nurse

    I think that MacT plans on providing Eakins with those options, but I suspect Eakins’ actual usage of the players would be better reflected in the following way:
    Marincin – Petry
    Klefbom – Schultz (reuniting these two may do wonders for Schultz – especially if it means that the coach shelters them a bit more…remember when they played together in OKC?…!?!?!)
    NewVet – Ference
    Belov (I tend to think he deserves another year to prove himself)
    Nurse (Ideally he get 9 games and then leads OKC to a championship…)

  7. Halfwise says:

    So if MacT mentions a player, said player has a spot locked up? But any player not mentioned is on the way out?

    Maybe we’re reading too much into the silences. Maybe talking up a player is part of enhancing his trade value, a form of anti-bold gambit.

    There’s a lot to like in 85 and 84 so far. At this point in their development they don’t get big minutes on a contending team, but “contending” does not rhyme with “Oilers” and besides, by comparison with the two actual NHL defensemen on this team they look not bad.

    It would be great to find a true #1 LD to play with Petry and push all the LD down a level, don’t get me wrong. But based on this season, find a Stastny-strong 2C who knows his way around his own end first. Then find a D version of Hendricks who can play above Ference in the lineup.

  8. Woodguy says:

    delooper: At least in spurts it should be a much better D core than the Oilers have been icing in years.If several of the rookies or near-rookies struggle, their goalies will have to be superstars.

    If Marincin-Petry are playing 2nds that’s a win.

    No Nick Shultz or Mark Fraser is another win.

    Playing Ference on 3rds is a win.

    If the vet they get can actually play 1st and help Shultz keep his head above water, that’s another win.

    I think that Dgroup is miles and miles better than what they have iced for the last 3 years.

    I also think its probably a few miles from a playoff caliber Dcorp as well.

    For this to work the vet needs to be a real NHL Dman who can handle 1sts.

    If its a Matt Greene type then everyone is still above their heads and ability.

    Same as its been for every year since Lubo, Gilbert and Souray were on the blue.

  9. VanOil says:

    Woodguy:
    Do you think MacT plans on going:

    Vet-Shultz
    Marincin-Petry
    Klef-Ference
    Nurse

    Man that’s a lot of young D.

    This plan looks a whole lot better if the vet is someone like Brian Campbell who can eat big minutes. I would still prefer Nurse to get his 8 game cameo in the NHL and be sent back to Jr. It is a real shame he can not play in the AHL next year.

    My summer hope is that Florida drafts Ekblad and Campbell or Kulikov shake free with MacT at the front of the line.

  10. su_dhillon says:

    Woodguy: It was mentioned yesterday that other high end Dmen are starting on other teams in their draft +2 year so we shouldn’t get our panties in a bunch if Nurse makes the team.I agree and disagree with this.I have no idea how Nurse will look against NHLers, I just know that the jump from junior to the NHL is huge as per everyday Dman who has made it.Often these kids can be broken in at this age, if their ice time is tightly controlled.The problem on the OIlers is that Marincin and Klef are rookies, Shultz is almost a rookie and Ference is above his head unless in the 3rd pairing.There’s no where to hide Nurse so his head isn’t kicked in.<.

    This is the crux of it, in a vacuum Nurse making it year after draft not crazy, Same with Kelf and Marincin in their positions but all 3 playing on a team that also has JSchultz learning how to play and a Vet that needs to be 3rd pairing? You are basically hoping for 100-1 shot to win the Derby.

    The problem with that is you have a guy who is a triple crown threat entering year 5 that is going to need to see some progress soon, you cannot keep wasting these Taylor Hall seasons.

    I agree with LT that MacT is a smart guy, we saw him run teams for years and we know he understands better than us the need for quality D, he remembers that the SCF team didn’t only add Pronger they also added Spacek and Tarnstrom to a group that had Smith and Staois ( jesus that was some blueline!).

    I’m inclined to believe that Mactavish realizes he overplayed his hand last year by being so open and honest about what he wanted to add, how willing he was and this year has changed his tact. The verbal this time is “no we aren’t desperate to make a move, we have options (which of course is a lie).

    No way he thinks this team can be competitive with all those young guys playing in NHL and he knows they have to win next year or fear losing Hall.

    I think MacT is hoping to use one of Klef or Marincin in a deal for a vet top 2 dman, which also opens a spot for Nurse. I personally would rather deal Schultz because I think he isn’t any further along on D than the other guys and he will always cost more because of the counting numbers plus he would bring the most return but they love him so he will stay.

    I refuse to believe their plan A or B or even C is to have all those under 24 D playing. They can’t be that dumb.

  11. Caramel Obvious says:

    Doesn’t Ference shoot left?

    In any case the free agent market for D is pretty dim, definitely worse than for forwards. I think that means that the best bet to find a D is by packaging Gagner with prospects in a trade.

    Failing that, I’d pick up Anton Stralman and run:

    Marincin–Petry
    Ference–Stralman
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Larsen

    There is no top pairing group here but there is no way to get that out of the free agent market alone. So instead you run three pairs, give them similar type minutes, and hope that fewer minutes improves performance.

    The trade scenario I like is for Roman Josi. Get him and you can run this:

    Josi–Stralman
    Marincin–Petry
    Klefbom–Schultz
    Ference

    Now it’s hard to imagine them actually sitting Ference but you could rotate guys around so no one gets run down and when the inevitable injury hit you’d be all set.

    But the sad truth of the matter is there is no quick fix here. The D will improve if and when Marincin/Klefbom/Schultz become star players. The die has been mostly cast here.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: If you bring one in and you aren’t moving anyone out, there’s no room for Nurse unless you want to burn year 1 of the ELC with him as the 7th Dman.

    No. Much better to stay in the Soo. They are smart down there (counting corgis and all). He’s the captain and he’s playing all disciplines and like 30 a night.

    I don’t see how that can’t be a better bet for Nurse than being stuck in the NHL early without a vet to help him along, playing a limited role and minutes.

    Ideal would be another year of Junior, half year of OKC.

  13. su_dhillon says:

    BTW anyone catch that quote by Eakins yesterday about not being able to make 2 passes in a row?

    Hmm you have Fraser, Gadzic, Pinzotto, Hendricks, Acton all in lineup,all guys that are “tough to play against” except when they have the puck, then its real fucking easy.

    Meanwhile there was no spot for Hemsky here, Yak appears to be the next guy to be run out of time and Archo couldnt crack the top 12. Seriously, this team, it’s fans and the people that ‘expertly’ cover it, I swear.

  14. frjohnk says:

    Listening to MacT last night I think there is a possibility if the oilers do not get someone in free agency that we see

    Marincin/ Petry
    Klefbom/ Schultz

    as a top 4. Maybe one of those guys are traded in a package for a better D man but those guys will be the foundation of our top 4 going forward.

    And I wouldn’t bet against Nurse making the team next year.

  15. hags9k says:

    Yeah, why does LT hate Bennett?

    I haven’t been able to see him play but if he’s #1 on CS’ list I’m sure the Oilers have scouted him plenty. If we end up taking a C, we HAVE to get it right. If we take Reinhart for example at 2 and then watch Leon and Sam become superstars I’ll just never forgive them. I know they are kids and it’s far from an exact science but man, we cannot afford a whiff with one of these centres.

  16. russ99 says:

    frjohnk:
    Listening to MacT last night I think there is a possibility if the oilers do not get someone in free agency that we see

    Marincin/ Petry
    Klefbom/ Schultz

    as a top 4.Maybe one of those guys are traded in a package for a better D man but those guys will be the foundation of our top 4 going forward.

    And I wouldn’t bet against Nurse making the team next year.

    Ugh. Young blue = more years (plural) out of the playoffs.

    So I guess we can start up those new arena conspiracy theories again…

  17. sliderule says:

    I think the focus on our defence is wrong.

    The biggest problem is other than our top three or four players the oiler forwards don’t have enough skill.

    If you compare them with avalanche in goals scored by forwards.

    Avs. Oil difference
    Top three. 77. 82. +5
    Second 3. 66. 39. -27
    Bottom 6. 45. 29. -16

    Our top three are out scoring Avs but from there on down its a disaster.

    I would hope that next year Gagner and Yak will score more but there is talk about trading them for defensive help either on back end or forward.That will not be progress my friends.

    The oilers have to open the vault and sign one or two free agent forwards that can get 15 to 20 goals.
    There are only a couple out there but if they don’t even attempt to address this they will be in the Mcdavid sweepstakes.

  18. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Ugh. Young blue = more years (plural) out of the playoffs.

    So I guess we can start up those new arena conspiracy theories again…

    I think that top 4 next year is better than the top 4 of this year, and it will be a nice top 4, three years down the road. But I totally agree with you, if we have that top 4 next year, we are most likely in the running for the McDavid and Eichel sweepstakes unless these guys take significant jumps.

  19. Marcus Oilerius says:

    I suspect the reason Schultz and Marincin are getting so much ice time is experience and evaluation. Marincin has worn down a bit, all this ice time is a good lesson for him about the value of strength over an 82 game season. Schultz, well, let’s face it, he needs as much experience without the puck as humanly possible.

  20. knighttown says:

    I watched the MacT interview too and noticed the Marincin afterthought comment. Dangerous trying to read into situations but I’ve got two suspected theories:

    1. We know last year that MacT was close to moving Marty M as part of a package for Schneider. This year’s push and solid results would only make him a more valuable trade chip. MacT plans on moving him as the key piece for a bonafide #1 d-man and is mentioning Klefbom as a way to soften the fan base. If you don’t think public opinion matters, look down the road to Vancouver where they are seemingly changing their management team because of brand damage.

    2. There’s a little bit of subterfuge going on here and MacT is trying to convince rival GMs that Oscar has more value than Marty. GMs work on these stupid formulas remember. Can’t forget 5 assets or the targeting of a “high end prospect” out of LA for Penner. Those main assets being Lupul instead of Perry or Ryan and Teubert instead of Voynov have set this franchise way back. Anyway, some GM’s may have decided they will move “x” piece but the return must include a “young defenseman on an NHL roster” and MacT is trying to convince them to take Oscar instead of Martin.

    Of course, total speculation but I think one of the two is gone this summer. Just not sure exactly which one.

  21. Acumen says:

    I’m hoping that the silence on Bennett might be a smokescreen with MacTavish learning his lesson from telegraphing too much last summer. It seems that’s something we haven’t really had to consider picking 1st 3 years in a row and then picking just at the tail end of last years Big 7. The organization seems to have been pretty transparent about this stuff since Stu came in though, maybe it’s because the draft is the only bone they get to throw us.

    I am encouraged to hear that they’re looking at Dal Colle though. Call me crazy but I like him more than Draisatl. I just get a bad vibe from Draisatl, and I believe Dal Colle has closed out the season and played into the playoffs as a C (someone please correct me if I’m wrong). Not much to complain about with his game: big, talented, physical (enough), smart, and his numbers are better than Monahan’s 17 AND 18 year old years in the O.

    I hope to God they trade for 1 D man and sign another. For FAs, Brooks Orpik is my pick for the Nurse/Klefa bridge as the “mean sumbitch that doesn’t suck” to settle Eakins’ internal dialogue.

  22. Hammers says:

    LT . Agree with close to 100% of todays comments . You hit the nail on the head .ps.McT looks older and like he is carrying the wait of the world on his shoulders .

  23. rickithebear says:

    1981-82 oilers;
    Coffey 20
    Siltanen 22
    Lowe 22
    Huddy 22
    Gregg 25
    Fogolin 26
    Larievre 26

    Next year
    Nurse 19 6’4″ 200lb
    Klefbom 21 6’3″ 215lb
    Marincin 23 6’4″ 195lb
    J. schultz 24 6’2″ 190lb
    Petry 27 6’3″ 195lb
    Ference ………

    you can break down marincin into 4 segments;
    he largely been a even player facing tough comp.
    except for ta 2 gamme stretch @ ANA; @SJS were he was -5.
    Segment 1 16:39 TOI
    segment 2 20:56 TOI
    segment 3 18:34 TOI
    segment 4 21:42 TOI

    Klefbom had one tough game March 22 -3
    games
    1-5 12:56 TOI
    6-10 15:14 TOI
    11-15 18:19 TOI

    Petry the last 15 games:
    23: 27 TOI
    A bad spell @ANA; @SJS paired with Marincin.
    otherwise a largely Even D.

    J. Schultz has been an even D except for Mar 22 with KLef.
    23:49 TOI

    Tthese guys are being rolled out Versus 1st/2nd’s

    and largely handling it.

  24. Hammers says:

    Woodguy:
    It was mentioned yesterday that other high end Dmen are starting on other teams in their draft +2 year so we shouldn’t get our panties in a bunch if Nurse makes the team.

    I agree and disagree with this.

    I have no idea how Nurse will look against NHLers, I just know that the jump from junior to the NHL is huge as per everyday Dman who has made it.

    Often these kids can be broken in at this age, if their ice time is tightly controlled.

    The problem on the OIlers is that Marincin and Klef are rookies, Shultz is almost a rookie and Ference is above his head unless in the 3rd pairing.

    There’s no where to hide Nurse so his head isn’t kicked in.

    MacT talked about a bridge vet.

    If you bring one in and you aren’t moving anyone out, there’s no room for Nurse unless you want to burn year 1 of the ELC with him as the 7th Dman.

    Not the worst thing in the world, but not the best.

    Do you think MacT plans on going:

    Vet-Shultz
    Marincin-Petry
    Klef-Ference
    Nurse

    Man that’s a lot of young D.

    I hope not but I do think Nurse gets at least his 9 games .

  25. rickithebear says:

    sliderule: If you compare them with avalanche in goals scored by forwards.
    Avs. Oil difference
    Top three. 77. 82. +5
    Second 3. 66. 39. -27
    Bottom 6. 45. 29. -16

    Really that surprises me.

    A deep top 10 fwd in scoring.

    Who would have thought that!

  26. frjohnk says:

    knighttown:
    I watched the MacT interview too and noticed the Marincin afterthought comment.Dangerous trying to read into situations but I’ve got two suspected theories:

    1. We know last year that MacT was close to moving Marty M as part of a package for Schneider.This year’s push and solid results would only make him a more valuable trade chip.MacT plans on moving him as the key piece for a bonafide #1 d-man and is mentioning Klefbom as a way to soften the fan base.If you don’t think public opinion matters, look down the road to Vancouver where they are seemingly changing their management team because of brand damage.

    2. There’s a little bit of subterfuge going on here and MacT is trying to convince rival GMs that Oscar has more value than Marty.GMs work on these stupid formulas remember.Can’t forget 5 assets or the targeting of a “high end prospect” out of LA for Penner.Those main assets being Lupul instead of Perry or Ryan and Teubert instead of Voynov have set this franchise way back.Anyway, some GM’s may have decided they will move “x” piece but the return must include a “young defenseman on an NHL roster” and MacT is trying to convince them to take Oscar instead of Martin.

    Of course, total speculation but I think one of the two is gone this summer.Just not sure exactly which one.

    Good points. Trading Klefbom or Marincin for a more experienced D man and if Nurse makes the team next year, there would be 2 rookies instead of 3.

    I think, unless someone is picked up via free agency, Nurse is top 7 in D man depth in this organization at the beginning of next year

  27. hunter1909 says:

    Because 1st overall picks don’t often get traded particularly after an incompetent rookie head coached season…I’m tempted to write “good teams” but let’s face it Oilers are the new NHL lottery pick out of playoff leaders and therefore need to be thought of in 1969 LAK/ Pittburgh Penguins terms, than say the 2014 Colorado Avalanche.

    No need to elaborate.

    Not interested in watching a MacT interview, but he gets a “C” instead of his usual failing grade for at least keeping his big fat dry mouth shut. If I were his teacher I’d raise that to a B- to encourage the little squirt.

  28. Ducey says:

    I don’t get why LT hates Bennett.

    Ranked Number 1 by Central Scouting

    Relatively young – is June 1996, Reinhart is November 1995

    Only in his second year in the CHL. Reinhart and Eklbad are in their third.

    Close to 100 pts and 100 PIMs.

    Bennett had 118 PIM’s. Reinhart had 11.

    Know for his compete level and grit.

    Compared to Dougie Gilmour

    Plays center.

    Yeah, the Oilers couldn’t possibly need that.

  29. Yeti says:

    MacT was clearly just talking Schultz up to increase his trade value. Right??

  30. TheOtherJohn says:

    frjohnk:
    Listening to MacT last night I think there is a possibility if the oilers do not get someone in free agency that we see

    Marincin/ Petry
    Klefbom/ Schultz

    as a top 4.Maybe one of those guys are traded in a package for a better D man but those guys will be the foundation of our top 4 going forward.

    And I wouldn’t bet against Nurse making the team next year.

    Agree completely with WG comments. If Oil run with
    Marincin/ Petry
    Klefbom/ Schultz

    as there top 4 next year hopefully we will have a few less people here commenting about how smart MacT is. That strategy is akin to not signing a veteran at the start of the year with Nuge injured and being forced to run Gordon Arco, Acton and Lander after Gagner hurt. Nuge returned early Arco exceeded expectations and it was still very far from an optimal situation

    Would love Matt Green on our 3rd pairing playing 15-16 TOI but that slot should be filled by Schultz. Went to game last night to watch Klefbom. He has a superlative toolbox, great skater, outstanding accleration and a big body. He also looks tenative. I believe that, subject to injuries, he looks like a decade long top 4 D. I would still stick him in OKC for 40-50 games next year

    The Oilers need to add 2 top 4 D men to play 20 TOI and push everyone else on the D down to less pressured spots. Would love Campbell and Gilbert in those roles. Campbell has 2 years left on ridiculous contract and that would be a great bridge to the kids

    30/30/29/24/28 might make a reasonable person think maybe you are not smartest guy in the room

    But……… Oilers.

  31. su_dhillon says:

    The news out of Vancouver that Pat Quinn will have a lot of influence as a trusted Linden guy is great news. Unless you’re a Canucks fan, then its terrible.

  32. Factotum says:

    LT, please stop mentioning Dennis Seidenberg. It gives me flashbacks to 2009 – Seidenberg’s free agent year. I spent most of the summer silently begging Tambellini to grab him, but of course it wasn’t to be. It was hard to believe at the time and even harder in hindsight, but Seidenberg didn’t get signed until September 14 (by Florida, who traded him to Boston at the 2010 deadline). I can’t watch the Bruins without thinking of it.

    Not that defense has been a point of weakness over the last 5 years or anything…

    Like my irrational fear of speed bumps, I’m slowly getting over it. When you’re dying of 1000 cuts, there’s no use in fixating on one in particular.

    Here’s wishing MacT wisdom in choosing his opportunities.

  33. frjohnk says:

    sliderule:
    I think the focus on our defence is wrong.

    The biggest problem is other than our top three or four players the oiler forwards don’t have enough skill.

    If you compare them with avalanchein goals scoredby forwards.

    Avs.Oildifference
    Top three. 77. 82.+5
    Second 3. 66.39. -27
    Bottom 6.45.29. -16

    Our top three are out scoring Avs but from there on down its a disaster.

    I would hope that next year Gagner and Yak will score more but there is talk about trading them for defensive help either on back end or forward.That will not be progress my friends.

    The oilers have to open the vault and sign one or twofree agent forwards that can get 15 to 20 goals.
    There are only a couple out there but if they don’t even attempt to address this theywill be in the Mcdavidsweepstakes.

    We have 4 players who have produced as top 6 forwards ( Perron, Hall, RNH and Eberle)
    Smyth, Gagner, and Yak have produced as third liners but Gagner and Yak have been put into a top 6 role.
    Gordon and Hendricks have produced as 4th liners, but played as third liners. And most guys who played 4th line can’t score and can not outplay other teams 4th lines.

    Not only have our D played one role above their true value so has most of the forwards except the top 4 scorers and Smyth

  34. hunter1909 says:

    Ducey: Compared to Dougie Gilmour
    Plays center.
    Yeah, the Oilers couldn’t possibly need that.

    Wasn’t Sam Gagner compared to Gilmour? How has that worked out?

    LOL = arguing about Oilers.

  35. PaperKurtRussell says:

    Ducey,

    I have recently been studying body language (aka tells). I noticed during MacT’s interview that as soon as Gene mentioned Draisaitl, MacT immediately flinched and touched his face. When Gene later mentioned Ekblad, no reaction at all. Just food for thought, but it looks as though Draisaitl is their boy. Unfortunately Gene never mentioned the other guys, so my analysis is grossly incomplete and may signify nothing at all. :-|)

  36. Genjutsu says:

    To my eye Nurse was one of our best D in training camp. It will be shock if he is not a mile better this fall. I imagine he will make it close to impossible to send him down if he is indeed the best LD option on the club.

    I am all for having vet D and that is the conventional wisdom but, the rookie D this year (Klefbom and Marincin) have been well clear of everyone the Oilers have iced this year not named Petry or Justin Shultz.

  37. hunter1909 says:

    It’s weird reading all of the cute semi-positive Eakins comments during the past week. Getting sucked into the fool’s gold thats the spring Oilers is a perennial event. No one is immune.

  38. Hammers says:

    Something said last night regarding Perron is what I said a couple of months ago and that as good as he has been he may become that trade chip along with say Gernat to get us the “D” we need . If its Perron + either Klef or Marty it should get a top 2 “D” . Unless it was just me I thought Gags had one of his worst games in the last 10 and I don’t see what you could package with him to get an upgrade at “C” . McT ‘s comments re where they pick still lead me to think a center or a trade down inside the top ten for a player + another 1st rd pick .

  39. hunter1909 says:

    PaperKurtRussell:
    Ducey,

    I have recently been studying body language (aka tells).I noticed during MacT’s interview that as soon as Gene mentioned Draisaitl, MacT immediately flinched and touched his face.When Gene later mentioned Ekblad, no reaction at all.Just food for thought, but it looks as though Draisaitl is their boy.Unfortunately Gene never mentioned the other guys, so my analysis is grossly incomplete and may signify nothing at all.:-|)

    MacT strikes me as a sucker up to bat style poker player. With a lot of effort anything can be achieved, but MacT will probably have trouble fooling anyone aside from Charles Wang who’s fooled by everything, all the time.

    Btw, when NYI move to Brooklyn, they’re going to skyrocket up the cool standings. They’re going to be the biggest marketing brand imaginable.

  40. TheOtherJohn says:

    FRJOHNK

    I think your comments about the forwards and where they slot is restricted to scoring alone

    Gordon is a 15 TOI a night player. And does a very good job at what he does. If you want to call him a 4th liner go ahead but give jim 10-12 minutes ES and 3-4 PK with all tough defensive zone starts.

  41. hunter1909 says:

    Hammers: McT ‘s comments re where they pick still lead me to think a center or a trade down inside the top ten for a player + another 1st rd pick .

    Shades of 2003 huh? Thanks for the wind up.

    Still, MacT’s bound to pull another howler so this might as well be it.

    STUPID THING MACT’S LIKELY TO DO NEXT POLL:
    1) Trade Yakupov
    2) Trade down in the draft
    3) Return as player/GM.
    4) anyone can feel free to add anything here.

  42. jb says:

    The D will likely look something like
    X-Marincin
    Shultz-Klefbom
    Petry-Ference

    Nurse another year of development

    Gagner gone, Smyth gone, Jones gone, then jumpstart this endless rebuild by dealing the 1st. None of these pieces will help produce positive results next year.. but two of them can be dealt for some help.

    Just play along with the narrative that the top 5 in this draft are all great bets, while you plan to draft, then package it for something nice on draft day.

    We come out miles ahead

  43. jake70 says:

    knighttown: I watched the MacT interview too and noticed the Marincin afterthought comment. Dangerous trying to read into situations but I’ve got two suspected theories:1. We know last year that MacT was close to moving Marty M as part of a package for Schneider. This year’s push and solid results would only make him a more valuable trade chip. MacT plans on moving him as the key piece for a bonafide #1 d-man and is mentioning Klefbom as a way to soften the fan base. If you don’t think public opinion matters, look down the road to Vancouver where they are seemingly changing their management team because of brand damage.2. There’s a little bit of subterfuge going on here and MacT is trying to convince rival GMs that Oscar has more value than Marty. GMs work on these stupid formulas remember. Can’t forget 5 assets or the targeting of a “high end prospect” out of LA for Penner. Those main assets being Lupul instead of Perry or Ryan and Teubert instead of Voynov have set this franchise way back. Anyway, some GM’s may have decided they will move “x” piece but the return must include a “young defenseman on an NHL roster” and MacT is trying to convince them to take Oscar instead of Martin.Of course, total speculation but I think one of the two is gone this summer. Just not sure exactly which one.

    My first thought was your point #2. Trying to create a contrast b/w the two for othe GMs without saying negative on either.

  44. Marcus Oilerius says:

    jb,

    Nurse can’t go to OKC next season. Too young.

  45. jb says:

    hunter1909:
    It’s weird reading all of the cute semi-positive Eakins comments during the past week.Getting sucked into the fool’s gold thats the spring Oilers is a perennial event. No one is immune.

    If only this attention seeking troll was our GM. Maybe one day you’ll realize the fail is 90% on the players. Targetting Eakins makes you a moron, focus on the assistants and i’ll buy that. Eakins needs his own crew.

  46. frjohnk says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    FRJOHNK

    I think your comments about the forwards and where they slot is restricted to scoring alone

    Gordon is a 15 TOI a night player. And does a very good job at what he does.If you want to call him a 4th liner go ahead but give jim 10-12 minutes ES and 3-4 PK with all tough defensive zone starts.

    Yes, its based on scoring. Gordon scored 4 of his 8 goals in the first 6 games. He plays tough minutes, is great on faceoffs and does a great job on the PK. I like him.
    But if our third line center is a guy who after a decade, has a career high of 8 goals and has not scored in 32 games you can see why Eakins said ” we are not an offensively skilled team”

    Gordon is about as offensive skilled as Gagner is defensively skilled.

    If Gordon is our 4th line center, this is a better team as this means we have 3 centers who can push the play and score. Give Gordon 10 mins/ game plus PK

  47. Pouzar says:

    Ducey:
    I don’t get why LT hates Bennett.

    Ranked Number 1 by Central Scouting

    Relatively young – is June 1996, Reinhart is November 1995

    Only in his second year in the CHL.Reinhart and Eklbad are in their third.

    Close to 100 pts and 100 PIMs.

    Bennett had 118 PIM’s.Reinhart had 11.

    Know for his compete level and grit.

    Compared to Dougie Gilmour

    Plays center.

    Yeah, the Oilers couldn’t possibly need that.

    I’ve flip flopped so many times but he’s the guy I want for all those reasons above.
    But it won’t happen.

  48. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    MacT has already shown his hand previously that he has a man crush on Klefbom. He and Nurse are his main men down the road. Marincin is fine, but not quite as loved by MacT.

    I said before that I think the Oilers are not thinking playoffs next year, but competing for playoffs. They may make it, but that would be a bonus. If that is your target, then you want the future loading up on ice time for subsequent legitimate runs. I expect he will get a true first pairing defenseman this summer as well as a 2C. I think the pick and Yak or Eberle are the key trinkets for barter (plus a smattering of prospects depending on deal structures). Gagner seems like an asset offered for bottom 6 talent. There is no question the D as it is today is much improved from the start of the year and will get progressively stronger through next year – with or without Nurse. They won’t be an upper echelon D corp of the league but the foundation is certainly there and starting in 2015, it starts to move into that realm. Although that sucks to think that next season will likely fall short of entering the playoffs (and probably realistic as well), it’s ok in my mind if what is being forged together is a team that can truly chase cups thereafter (not a tweener)..

    Will be an interesting summer for MacT. Critical really.

  49. Bank Shot says:

    Sign some vets.

    Trade any of Schultz, Petry, Marincin, or Klefbom for upgrades.

    The defence is as bad as the Oilers bottom nine forwards.

    There aren’t any untouchables there. There likely aren’t any future stars who we will regret having moved to another club for the next 15 years.

    Get to the point where none of Marincin, Schultz, or Klefbom are playing above the third pairing through trade/signings and maybe we can start talking about playoffs.

    Assuming of course that they also shore up the second and third lines.

  50. Jujhar says:

    Yea, definitely need another CF-42.9% CF Rel -3.1%

    Moar Andrew Ference please. Maybe we can get Douglas Murray too.

  51. Pouzar says:

    hunter1909: Shades of 2003 huh? Thanks for the wind up.

    Still, MacT’s bound to pull another howler so this might as well be it.

    STUPID THING MACT’S LIKELY TO DO NEXT POLL:
    1) Trade Yakupov
    2) Trade down in the draft
    3) Return as player/GM.
    4) anyone can feel free to add anything here.

    I think it’s blatantly obvious that MacT’s plan is to parlay the 3rd pick into owning every pick in the 7th round so we can draft 30 Greg Chases….DUH. You’d be crazy not to do this.

  52. TheOtherJohn says:

    frjohnk: Yes, its based on scoring.Gordon scored 4 of his 8 goals in the first 6 games.He plays tough minutes, is great on faceoffs and does a great job on the PK.I like him.
    But if our third line center is a guy who after a decade, has a career high of 8 goals and has not scored in 32 games you can see why Eakins said ” we are not an offensively skilled team”

    Gordon is about as offensive skilled as Gagner is defensively skilled.

    If Gordon is our 4th line center, this is a better team as this means we have 3 centers who can push the play and score.Give Gordon 10 mins/ game plus PK

    I do not care what you call Gordon. If you think he is part of the problem, we agree to disagree. Get him 15 TOI a night and I am happy. Anyone signing Gordon for his scoring is a moron. Pretty sure no one thinks Dave Tippett is a moron and on a MUCH better team Tippett played Gordon, gasp….15 minutes a night n/w/s that his career high is 8 goals a year

  53. bendelson says:

    MacT recieved a ton of criticism for going public with his desire to move both Horcoff and Hemsky last summer – and rightly so… a rookie GM saying too much.

    Move to this season – I was really disappointed when we all heard about MacT and Gagner’s gentlemen’s agreement to look beyond their previous gentlemen’s agreement and find him a soft landing somewhere else. Why do I know about this? This should be the kind of information that leaks after Gagner has been traded – NOT before. MacT disappointed again in this regard.

    It’s not difficult to understand why Gagner has shutdown completely this season. He came back early to a team in mid-collaspe and boom – they were out of the playoff in November. Another wasted year. He has a nice contract (understatement) and has been promised a soft-landing trade so he can move forward with his career… it’s all good if you’re Sam Gagner. Not good if you’re Eakins trying to get this player motivated to play in his own end.

    So, here we are listening to MacT talk about the summer and the draft. I for one, hope he is working the smoke screens and tossing out red herrings – leaving us (and the GM’s around the league) guessing all the way.

    Am I wrong?

  54. Bank Shot says:

    Jujhar:
    Yea, definitely need another CF-42.9%CF Rel -3.1%

    Moar Andrew Ference please.Maybe we can get Douglas Murray too.

    The problem is that especially with Klefbom and Schultz, their numbers don’t compare all that favourably to either Ference or Murray.

    Hence the need to trade some of these guys for upgrades.

    Maintaining the status quo on the D-core of a team that has surrender 3.6 goals per game in their last 15 is insanity. Adding one UFA veteran isn’t going to fix the problems.

  55. rickithebear says:

    Since we have had Klefbom; Marincin; Scrivens; Fasth last 15 GM
    Facing the West elite we have gone 4-5. .400%
    Better than our horid .065% start to the year versus the best in the west.

    Against:
    CGY; NSH; WPG;
    6-2-3 .682

    PHX, VCR; Minn; Dal; Col
    5-12-1 .306%

    With Scrivens and Fasth
    4-4 .500

    0-3 to start vesu VCR
    what happens next year/

    Versus the east:
    Without 3 of Hall; Perron; Smyth; Gagner
    we were 1-5.166
    the rest of the time:
    14-8-4 .615

    we would expect 41 -37 points from the 32 games vrsus the east.
    would expect 29-23 pts pts fom the the 29 games versus elite west teams
    would esxpect 26-24 pts from the bottom west teams.
    A range of 96-84 points.

  56. fifthcartel says:

    frjohnk,

    Agreed. Hendricks and Gordon shouldn’t be playing above the 4th line if MacT wants the team to be competitive. Hendricks offense is basically enforcer level at this point and Gordon’s 20 or so points are probably below 3rd line production.

    I can see reasoning that Gordon would be an okay 3rd line center next year but Hendricks should absolutely not be anywhere near the 3rd line.

  57. rickithebear says:

    Bank Shot:
    Sign some vets.

    Trade any of Schultz, Petry, Marincin, or Klefbom for upgrades.

    The defence is as bad as the Oilers bottom nine forwards.

    There aren’t any untouchables there. There likely aren’t any future stars who we will regret having moved to another club for the next 15 years.

    Get to the point where none of Marincin, Schultz, or Klefbom are playing above the third pairing through trade/signings and maybe we can start talking about playoffs.

    Assuming of course that they also shore up the second and third lines.

    How the fuck do upgrade on the 5 best tough comp GA dman on a ELC.

    This is HForrific!

  58. Ducey says:

    bendelson: MacT recieved a ton of criticism for going public with his desire to move both Horcoff and Hemsky last summer – and rightly so… a rookie GM saying too much.Move to this season – I was really disappointed when we all heard about MacT and Gagner’s gentlemen’s agreement to look beyond their previous gentlemen’s agreement and find him a soft landing somewhere else. Why do I know about this? This should be the kind of information that leaks after Gagner has been traded – NOT before. MacT disappointed again in this regard.It’s not difficult to understand why Gagner has shutdown completely this season. He came back early to a team in mid-collaspe and boom – they were out of the playoff in November. Another wasted year. He has a nice contract (understatement) and has been promised a soft-landing trade so he can move forward with his career… it’s all good if you’re Sam Gagner. Not good if you’re Eakins trying to get this player motivated to play in his own end. So, here we are listening to MacT talk about the summer and the draft. I for one, hope he is working the smoke screens and tossing out red herrings – leaving us (and the GM’s around the league) guessing all the way. Am I wrong?

    I would think that MacT is likely to be keep his card closer to his vest as he moves along. Its one thing to think you can make certain moves, its a whole other to be find someone willing to cooperate.

    I also think that Gagner is playing hurt right now. The game where he scored the shootout winner he was obviously hurting. They had Lander taking draws for him.

  59. yegCopywriter says:

    Based on the Oilers’ verbal pumping up Klefbom & Schultz, I bet Marincin or Petry will be traded in a package for a top-pairing defenceman.

  60. GriffCity says:

    LT,

    You’re dead wrong about Petry, he stinks. He is no good and when will you see that? He is almost identical to Tom Gilbert, a soft, weak defenceman with a small offensive upside that is outweighed by brutal defensive play. He was responsible for 2 goals against last night and countless goals against this season. Plus he is a turnover machine, no one slaps more pucks off the boards back to the other teams defenceman than Petry. N Schultz did it all the time and he is gonzo.

    Please trust me on this, I want the Oilers to be a good hockey team as bad as anyone but this guy sucks.

  61. Yeti says:

    yegCopywriter,

    Based on the Oiler’s verbal pumping up Klefbom & Schultz, I rather imagine that it will be Klefbom & Schultz that are packaged together in a trade for a top-pairing defenceman or a significant top-6 forward addition.

  62. su_dhillon says:

    GriffCity: LT, You’re dead wrong about Petry, he stinks. He is no good and when will you see that? He is almost identical to Tom Gilbert, a soft, weak defenceman with a small offensive upside that is outweighed by brutal defensive play. He was responsible for 2 goals against last night and countless goals against this season. Plus he is a turnover machine, no one slaps more pucks off the boards back to the other teams defenceman than Petry. N Schultz did it all the time and he is gonzo. Please trust me on this, I want the Oilers to be a good hockey team as bad as anyone but this guy sucks.

    Ha Terrific Satire!
    You should change your name to Angry 1260 caller and post like that all the time. Great stuff!

  63. TheOtherJohn says:

    su_dhillon: Ha Terrific Satire!
    You should changeyour name to Angry 1260 caller and post like that all the time.Great stuff!

    Well done

  64. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity:
    LT,

    You’re dead wrong about Petry, he stinks. He is no good and when will you see that? He is almost identical to Tom Gilbert, a soft, weak defenceman with a small offensive upside that is outweighed by brutal defensive play. He was responsible for 2 goals against last night and countless goals against this season.Plus he is a turnover machine, no one slaps more pucks off the boards back to the other teams defenceman than Petry. N Schultz did it all the time and he is gonzo.

    Please trust me on this, I want the Oilers to be a good hockey team as bad as anyone but this guy sucks.

    Spector’s calling and he wants his Underwood back.

  65. blainer says:

    Watching Klef and marincin skate is very pleasing…they make fraser look like he is walking out there. it has been a very long wait but the defensive prospects are starting to bear fruit. What we need now more than anything Is a big 2nd center and a second line with good puck possession skills and some more Hendricks for the 4th line. We are very deep in the prospect pool on D. We need to get some center help. Maybe gagner and our first plus a prospect for Hanzel.

  66. Pouzar says:

    Klefbom: “My game is more suited to the NHL”

    Love it!

  67. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    LMHF#1:
    The commentary (or lack thereof) on Marincin worries me greatly. He could be the best of the group and also might get shipped off this summer.

    24:30 last night is an eloquent commentary from the bench.

  68. blainer says:

    How about a second line of Perron, Hanzel and Jagar..Hanzel and Gordon would make us one of the best faceoff teams in the Nhl. To me possession starts from a faceoff win. Stay with Hall , RNH , and Ebs and we have two great lines that can score. Still some work to be done on the bottom six and a vet defenseman..

  69. blainer says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    I sure hope they don’t move Marincin. Can you imagine him with 20 pounds on. He will be a beast. I think we might have a clone in him with Gernat also. Boy we finally look great on defensive prospects..about time..

  70. Melman says:

    Is there a link anywhere to MacT’s interview?

  71. blainer says:

    Ducey,

    The 3.6 goals against are on more than just the said defenseman. Rnh shoud’ve had his man last night. And don’t get me started on gagner….Defense is a team game. The goaltending has also come back to earth a bit ..Mact, Please get some bigger forwards who can help out the defense ..I bet you will have a different opinion next year on the defense if he upgrades the forwards properly..

  72. yegCopywriter says:

    Yeti,

    I don’t think MacT is very good at hiding his true feelings and playing poker with what he says about players. Btw, I was saying Marincin++ or Petry++ as the potential packages, not Marincin and Petry together.

  73. Ducey says:

    blainer: Ducey, The 3.6 goals against are on more than just the said defenseman. Rnh shoud’ve had his man last night. And don’t get me started on gagner….Defense is a team game. The goaltending has also come back to earth a bit ..Mact, Please get some bigger forwards who can help out the defense ..I bet you will have a different opinion next year on the defense if he upgrades the forwards properly..

    What is my opinion now?

  74. Yeti says:

    yegCopywriter,

    I agree. I don’t mean to argue that MacT was being deceitful in his praise of Schultz or Klefbom. I believe he genuinely values both. And I believe both will be traded – either together or independently – by the time next season arrives. LT’s piece clearly indicates that we have a surplus of young D that it’s hard to fit onto the roster. It’s inconceivable that some of them won’t be traded to address other areas of need. Schultz and Klef together will get you something good in the same way that Gagner and Musil – or whatever other trade combinations are regularly flaunted – will get you very little.

  75. yegCopywriter says:

    Yeti,

    Ah, I see. I’d be shocked if they traded Schultz. I think their unnatural love for Schultz puts him on their untouchable list with Hall and RNH.

  76. GriffCity says:

    Anyone whom legitimately thinks Petry is a good top 4 d-man is either ignorant, a moron, or both. Any argument to the contrary is just incorrect. Do i wish he was a better player? YES. Do I have a personal vendetta against Petry? NO. I call em like i see em and after some careful deliberation it is clear that Petry is no good.

  77. stevezie says:

    GriffCity,

    This isn’t a survey. You’re allowed to just pop in a throw out an opinion, but, frankly, no one cares what you think unless you can do a good job of explaining why you think it.

    In other words, no one is going to “just trust [you] on this”. It’s an untrusting bunch in these parts.

  78. Derek says:

    I’d try and move Gagner + Klefbom for that potential top 4 D man rumored to be on the outs with his team. Byfuglien? Kulikov? De haan?

    I don’t see how the team can run with this many young blue liners arnd expect to be near competent and Klefbom has an injury history a mile long. Sami Salo is a hell of a blue liner but he spends so much time on the IR.

    Sign Grabovski to an overpay for 2 years ( 6.5 x 2? ) and draft Bennett and send him down for atleast one more year in the OHL.

    Try for Fayne or NIskanen and another defensive forward on the UFA market this season although it sure will be tough to convince them to come to Edmonton.

    Blue sky:

    RNH – Hall – Eberle
    Grabovski – Perron – Yakupov
    Gordon – Winnik – Arcobello
    Lander – Hendricks – Smyth

    Byfuglien – Niskanen
    Petry – Marincin
    Schultz – Ference
    Belov

    It sure is a shame its so hard to lure UFAs to a northern team that’s been in the toilet for 8 years.

  79. Derek says:

    GriffCity:
    Anyone whom legitimately thinks Petry is a good top 4 d-man is either ignorant, a moron, or both. Any argument to the contrary isjust incorrect. Do i wish he was a better player? YES. Do I have a personal vendetta against Petry? NO. I call em like i see em and after some careful deliberation it is clear that Petry is no good.

    This is a very comprehensive analysis of Jeff Petry by Lowetide poster: Griffcity and I for one can see no reason not to agree with him.

  80. Lowetide says:

    GriffCity:
    Anyone whom legitimately thinks Petry is a good top 4 d-man is either ignorant, a moron, or both. Any argument to the contrary isjust incorrect. Do i wish he was a better player? YES. Do I have a personal vendetta against Petry? NO. I call em like i see em and after some careful deliberation it is clear that Petry is no good.

    Is there a reason you have for saying this? The deliberation you describe, may we see it in written form? I tried the ‘careful deliberation’ thing and was stomped to death. So we’d need to see more evidence.

  81. G Money says:

    GriffCity: … after some careful deliberation …

    Kevin Lowe and his careful deliberation prior to the hiring of Steve Tambellini say hi.

  82. Bag of Pucks says:

    A quick shout-out to G Money for his post on coppernblue and a couple questions for when he’s back around these parts?

    1) As one of the blog commenters mentioned, I think 10GP is far too low a number for ‘success factor’ First round picks are like the boss’s son. If they’re not up to snuff, they’re still going to get TONS of opportunities to prove otherwise – because of the initial investment made.

    I floated this argument on here a few months back, and I reiterate it now, I think any evaluation of draft success has to include performance output metrics that actually attempt to quantify the player’s on the job performance. GPs as a metric is too weak because it’s basically just a ‘warm body’ metric. If two teams are picking in the first round and X team gets Chris Pronger level output for 200GPs and Y team gets Ryan Whitney performance for 500GPs, obviously GPs is not telling us enough as to which was the better pick?

    2) I was happy to see the conclusions you reached on drafting Gs. I feel strongly the 2nd round is the sweet spot to draft a goalie and believe the Oil should be exploiting that opportunity more.

    I’m curious as to why you arrived at the conclusion that slots 45 – 85 is the sweet spot? Given the importance of the position, the data seems to beg a qualifier? That is, if you’re looking for a G that will play north of 200GPs for you (those guys go early in the 1st). If you’re looking for great value to get a guy that tops out at 100-150 GPs (i.e. a backup), 45-85 is the place to go shopping?

    The Games by Pick curve for Gs is fairly similar to the Fs curve (i.e. the cream goes early). Does this not help to dispel the myth that picking a G early is a classic drafting faux pas?

  83. Lois Lowe says:

    GriffCity:
    Anyone whom legitimately thinks Petry is a good top 4 d-man is either ignorant, a moron, or both. Any argument to the contrary isjust incorrect. Do i wish he was a better player? YES. Do I have a personal vendetta against Petry? NO. I call em like i see em and after some careful deliberation it is clear that Petry is no good.

    I am pretty ignorant moron because I think Petry is a pretty serviceable player. My careful deliberations have lead me to conclude that you’re opinion is not to be trusted. I just call them as I see them.

  84. godot10 says:

    Trade for or sign a mid-career proven 2nd pairing type right D. Off-season Priority #1

    And then you run three somewhat equal pairings.

    Ference – New Vet
    Marincin – Petry
    Klefbom – Schultz.

    The 2006 Carolina Hurricanes strategy.

    I’d also maybe try getting Stephane Robidas on a 1-year deal as a UFA.

  85. delooper says:

    My careful deliberation suggests that on a sunny day, Vancouver can be a pretty town.

  86. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think we’ve arrived at the point in the rebuild where MacT’s decisions this offseason are absolutely crucial ( i.e. this is where the rubber hits the road), and he’s in very tough spot cos he essentially has to look at 5 players who’s development is still underway (with their final upside very much in question) and ultimately decide which are the keepers and which are the trading chips so he can re-balance the roster accordingly.

    These are the 5 imo

    Schultz, Klefbom, Nurse, RNH, Yakupov

    Between Schultz, Klefbom and Nurse, does he have the 1D horse every team needs to win the Cup? If he doesn’t, they need Ekblad falling to them (if in fact, he’s that 1D horse) OR they have to trade a core roster player to get that horse. I really dislike the latter scenario as no team’s giving you a 1D unless the player has baggage or the return is rich. Subban is the potential X factor here. Personally, I would trade either Nuge or Yak for Subban. I wouldn’t however gut the hard earned depth of this org with some big package of prospects. That approach lessens the window of opportunity imo.

    Once he has the 1D conundrum sussed, MacT’s life becomes a little easier. He can hold onto some of this ‘uncertain 5′ until he has a better sense of where they’ll ultimately trend and he can find a nice C compliment to Nuge in the draft, setting the table to deal Gagner for a much needed vet on the back end.

    What’s our sense on the blog? Do we have our future 1D with Nurse already, or do we need to go back to the well for someone like Ekblad or Subban? Or do you throw conventional wisdom out the door, and go with a D by committee approach and take the obvious need pick (2C)?

    Btw, you could make the argument that if the Oil haven’t found a legitimate 1D after giving Stu two first round kicks at the cat with Klefbom and Nurse, that is a bit of an indictment of the scout staff?

  87. linkfromhyrule says:

    I suspect/hope that Eakins’ usage of marincin is a reflection of their views of him. By my eye he is 4th in TOI/60 among oil d behind only schultz, petry, ference. He is better defensively than at least 2 of those.

    No way Eakins doesn’t see it either because he has been seeing more minutes and taking on more responsibility as the season has gone on.

  88. bendelson says:

    GriffCity: Anyone whom legitimately thinks Petry is a good top 4 d-man is either ignorant, a moron, or both. Any argument to the contrary is just incorrect. Do i wish he was a better player? YES. Do I have a personal vendetta against Petry? NO. I call em like i see em and after some careful deliberation it is clear that Petry is no good.

    Thank goodnes for Griff! This site desperately needs more ‘call’em like you see’em’ comments. Most people around here waste their time (and mine) crunching numbers and developing theories that require me to think – and using me brain hurts. Keep’em coming Griff – Your ‘careful deliberation’ is all the evidence I need!

    I’d be interested in your thoughts on some of the other players on the team the ignorant morons around here are constantly making excuses for…

  89. bendelson says:

    godot10: Trade for or sign a mid-career proven 2nd pairing type right D. Off-season Priority #1And then you run three somewhat equal pairings.Ference – New VetMarincin – PetryKlefbom – Schultz.The 2006 Carolina Hurricanes strategy.I’d also maybe try getting Stephane Robidas on a 1-year deal as a UFA.

    Is this a call for Myers?

  90. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Well, we know Gagner is gone, and change at 2C is a pretty significant step. All the contenders have a real option at 2C, and I think Gagner has definitively shown he can’t get it done. The defensive breakdowns are too much. Nuge, Eberle, and Hall are all younger and play better defensively and have gone through just as much coaching turnover.

    But I think one of either Yakupov or Schultz gets moved, too. The Schultz feature show and Mac’s comments out of line with statistically reality suggest a classic Sather pump and dump. Yakupov could get moved just because of uncertainty and organization depth. Perron is a natural right winger, though plays both sides well, and I’ve had a sense of organizational reluctance about Yakupov since that story broke about ownership forcing the issue and that Oil Change episode where instead of the entire room being polled as in the previous season with Nuge, only one scout’s answer was shown and he voted Yakupov. Once Kreuger was gone and Eakins showed himself to be a “how can you have any pudding if you don’t eat your beets?” type, and the way the Oilers permitted speculation around Yakupov to drag on and on, I felt it was almost inevitable that Yak gets moved.

    He’s a bad fit from an organizational standpoint. He’s at right wing, so he threatens Eberle’s position and status. He’s Russian, he’s Muslim, he doesn’t drink or party with the boys. Murray would have been a better fit. Look at the way the kids and Schultz pal around. Hell, Murray’s even a left handed shot, so it would have been the five of them.

    And ultimately, that’s why Yak gets dealt. Not the questions about his play – which I think he’ll answer eventually – but that he’s the odd fit on a core. It’d be one thing if he was just supposed to be a teammate, a secondary role guy, but I just get the sense that the Oilers want this young core to be like the 80s Oilers – best friends and teammates.

    That’s just the impression I get, that there’s the Edmonton Oilers kids… and Nail Yakupov. Eakins benching Yakupov while Hall and Eberle made equally gross mistakes with impunity really made that clear.

  91. su_dhillon says:

    GriffCity: Anyone whom legitimately thinks Petry is a good top 4 d-man is either ignorant, a moron, or both. Any argument to the contrary is just incorrect. Do i wish he was a better player? YES. Do I have a personal vendetta against Petry? NO. I call em like i see em and after some careful deliberation it is clear that Petry is no good.

    Question for group, I am pretty sure you can be ignorant and not a moron but can you be a moron and not ignorant? Wouldn’t you by definition be ignorant of something if you are a moron? I might be all confused on this.

  92. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Thanks for the shout out and thanks for reading the article!

    I just happened to be over at C&B responding to the comments. To recap your points:

    - Yes, the success criteria is definitely a key element to the analysis. I had to mull over that one a fair bit, considering numbers from 1 to 200, and 10 is what I settled on, mostly by gut feel. Maybe because that’s the ‘burn a year of ELC’ cutoff!

    That said, I ran the analysis a few times with a few different cutoff numbers and the key was that the numbers and charts don’t actually change as much as you’d think – the analysis is relatively stable that way (a good sign for any analysis).

    I think that’s because whatever criteria you use, because it applies to every point along the curve, the shape more or less stays the same. For example, here’s the D success curve using 81 games as the cutoff:

    http://i.imgur.com/xRlJeSo.png

    You can see that the shape of the curve is very similar to the 10 game version. (I can rerun any given analysis with different criteria easily, it’s the uploading and conversion of all 8 charts to post/blog format that is a pain!).

    Moreover, the success rate of course goes down, but not as much as you’d think. For example, here’s the pick range success for defensemen using 10 games as in my original post vs 81 games:

    81 games:
    1 to 5 , 98.2%
    6 to 10 , 89.3%
    11 to 15 , 80.6%
    16 to 20 , 72.2%

    (why 81? typo when I entered it!!)

    10 games:
    1 to 5 , 99.6%
    6 to 10 , 96.9%
    11 to 15 , 92.6%
    16 to 20 , 87.1%

    So the conclusion has gone from 97% of D picks at 6 to 10 will play at least 10 games, while 89% will play at least a season. The latter conclusion is more robust, but comes at the price of sparser data (since you’ve filtered out a lot more of it). Hence the reason why the cutoff becomes such a point of consideration.

    - Regarding the idea of picks 45 to 85 being the sweet spot for G (the “G spot” … ahem) is that I look at it as a maximization game. You are right, the data clearly show that the highest likelihood of success is in picking high, in all three categories (not an obvious conclusion for goalies).

    But the catch is that you only have a limited number of picks. So the idea is that you want to allocate the picks in such a way as to maximize the likelihood of success of your entire portfolio of picks for each draft, rather than maximize the value of an individual pick.

    So the sweet spots in that context become 1-10 for F, 11-30 for D, 45-85 for G, and BPA everywhere else. You are right though, I should probably have added that “maximize the overall value” as a qualifier when talking about a sweet spot for a drafting strategy … but in my defense, I was tired!

  93. Hammers says:

    Bank Shot:
    Sign some vets.

    Trade any of Schultz, Petry, Marincin, or Klefbom for upgrades.

    The defence is as bad as the Oilers bottom nine forwards.

    There aren’t any untouchables there. There likely aren’t any future stars who we will regret having moved to another club for the next 15 years.

    Get to the point where none of Marincin, Schultz, or Klefbom are playing above the third pairing through trade/signings and maybe we can start talking about playoffs.

    Assuming of course that they also shore up the second and third lines.

    Please tell me what your going to get better than Marincin for under 800 K & Klef under 980K

  94. icecastles says:

    Lois Lowe: GriffCity:
    I am pretty ignorant moron because I think Petry is a pretty serviceable player. My careful deliberations have lead me to conclude that you’re opinion is not to be trusted. I just call them as I see them.

    The difference being that you have clear evidence for your opinion, Lois. :D

    I’m scrolling all the comments just to enjoy the responses to Griffcity.

    Griff City. Population: Griff.

    How I envision our poster of the day.

  95. Hammers says:

    GriffCity:
    Anyone whom legitimately thinks Petry is a good top 4 d-man is either ignorant, a moron, or both. Any argument to the contrary isjust incorrect. Do i wish he was a better player? YES. Do I have a personal vendetta against Petry? NO. I call em like i see em and after some careful deliberation it is clear that Petry is no good.

    Your opinion

  96. Hammers says:

    bendelson: Thank goodnes for Griff!This site desperately needs more ‘call’em like you see’em’ comments. Most people around here waste their time (and mine) crunching numbers and developing theories that require me to think – and using me brain hurts. Keep’em coming Griff – Your ‘careful deliberation’ is all the evidence I need!

    I’d be interested in your thoughts on some of the other players on the team the ignorant morons around here are constantly making excuses for…

    Takes all kinds I guess I do mean using your brain especially if it hurts .

  97. icecastles says:

    bendelson: I’d be interested in your thoughts on some of the other players on the team the ignorant morons around here are constantly making excuses for…

    Oh gawd, yes. From now on when I see a post with clear evidence, deep analysis and a link to the source data, I’m flagging it with “Less Woodguy; more Griff.”

    Griff! Tell us what you think of Eakins! (ducks back behind the bushes)

  98. Ducey says:

    Any word on whether the Oilers are likely to sign John McCarron?

    Seems to be a good fit for a bottom 6 role eventually.

  99. G Money says:

    Man, I spent all that time researching then assessing solution parameters then gathering data then crunching numbers to come up with tables and charts to assess draft success by round and by pick.

    I coulda/shoulda just given it some careful deliberation.

    F*ck!

    (I suspect ‘careful deliberation’, like GriffCity himself, has a tremendous amount of Eyeglow/60, and so may have just joined the Lowetidian inside joke/meme category)

  100. icecastles says:

    G Money: I coulda/shoulda just given it some careful deliberation.

    Provided you provide clear context to how we should interpret your deliberation. More specifically, you must point out that we should trust you.

  101. G Money says:

    icecastles,

    Right! Trust. Forgot about that.

    That’s what makes careful deliberation so hard!

  102. bendelson says:

    Hammers: Takes all kinds I guess I do mean using your brain especially if it hurts .

    punctuate hammers you know for clarity.

  103. Derek says:

    Good news guys!

    Eakins isn’t the worst coach in the NHL, even if he is arrogant, has silly hair and looks like bird.. err a hawk… or a chickenhawk.

    https://twitter.com/BSH_EricT

    http://i.imgur.com/5QnbypI.png

    After some careful deliberation it is clear that the Toronto Maple Leafs are a good and just NHL team who keep all the shots to the outside and capitalize on all their chances because of superior offensive awareness and clutchyness.

  104. Bag of Pucks says:

    GMoney, essentially what we’re saying is the success rate is higher for Fs in the 1-10 range than it is for Gs in the same slots correct, hence the favourable odds play is to take the F?

    It makes sense, but it begs the question, what is the point of having scouts if you’re going to run your draft table purely as an odds calculation exercise?

    BPA presumably led the Oil to take Yak, despite the fact that they needed both a 1G and a 1D more at that point in the rebuild. Now they’re faced with the conundrum of potentially trading Yak to balance the roster elsewhere when his value is nowhere near what the value for a 1stOV is at the time of the draft.

    If I have Niklas Lidstrom or Dominik Hasek available to me with that #7 pick, I want scouts with the cahones to say ‘this is a generational player and he’s the pick we should make’ regardless of what the odds calcs tell us about drafting a D or G at that slot over a F.

    For me BPA shouldn’t mean ‘best position to draft based on your slot and historical odds’ it should literally mean ‘who is the best player on the board at this time regardless of position?’ This is how the Habs end up with a player like Carey Price. When everyone else is saying you don’t take a G at that slot, Montreal are saying he’s the best player available at this slot and we don’t care about theoretical bias thank you very much!

    Is that fair?

    Now, I know some pundits will say both Kopitar and Neal were drafted after Price so was he actually the best player on the board at that point? To which I say, we’re underrating the importance of goalies.

    Baseball and Football understand implicitly the value of the player that touches the ball most (i.e. Pitcher and Quarterback), but for some reason hockey struggles with this.

    What’s more valuable, a forward that generates 4 shots on net (i.e. 4 potential scoring touches) or the G that stops 40 shots (i.e. 40 potential scoring touches against). As the playoffs show, I think the answer is G. Basically, I’m saying goalies are money, G Money ; )

  105. GriffCity says:

    You guys are hilarious, i mean it. I am sorry i did not copy and paste some statistics i found somewhere or site every single reference to show why I think Petry is a bad player, I was unaware that it was so important. All that I can tell you is that I wish I was wrong and I wish Petry was better.

    I may not have as much expert blogging experience as some couch wizards out there but I have played hockey my entire life, and for a while at a very high level, and for as long as I can remember I have been an Oilers fan. At the end of the day I want the team to be better the same as you do but I cannot for the life of me see why people continue to defend Petry.

    You cannot continue to site obscure stats and determine that they are enough to make Petry a viable option as a top 4 d-man because on any other NHL team he would be lucky to have a job.
    Im fairly sure Dubnyk had some “good stats” before imploding and showcasing why he is as bad as I always thought he was, despite his blogging defenders who swore he was the man. Now he is done, never to see the light of the NHL again but a few short months ago people thought he was good enough to be the Oilers starting goalie for the year? It’s not all about the stats because stats don’t include the times he gets beat outside, or the times he misses an assignment in his own end, or the times he gets out-muscled in the corners, stats don’t show that. Its the intangibles that im referring to here, something that a guy like a Hendricks brings although he may not be “killing it” on the stats page.

    Hockey cannot be broken down into metrics, this isn’t Moneyball . People who know the game, people who love the game know what they are watching and can tell how someone is doing something or not doing something.

    Petry simply does not play a good enough all around game to be remotely considered a top 4 d-man and I am sorry if that hurts anyone’s feelings out there but it’s the truth. You only needed to watch Johnson, a puck pounding defenseman waltz in and with a simple move blow right past Petry for the uncontested GWG last night to have an idea of why I think he is a bad d-man.

    Please tell me I am not the only one who thinks he is a dud???

  106. Bag of Pucks says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Bag of Pucks,

    He’s a bad fit from an organizational standpoint.He’s at right wing, so he threatens Eberle’s position and status.He’s Russian, he’s Muslim, he doesn’t drink or party with the boys.Murray would have been a better fit.Look at the way the kids and Schultz pal around.Hell, Murray’s even a left handed shot, so it would have been the five of them.

    You’re probably right, and I think it’s exactly the reason I’m pulling so hard for Yak to prove them wrong.

    This team has run on ‘old boys club’ principles for far too long. I’m rooting for the rights of the individual over groupthink on this one.

  107. TheOtherJohn says:

    GMoney

    Great job over on C & B

    Thanks

  108. Derek says:

    GriffCity:
    …..I may not have as much expert blogging experience as some couch wizards out there but I have played hockey my entire life, and for a while at a very high level, and for as long as I can remember I have been an Oilers fan.

    ….People who know the game, people who love the game know what they are watching and can tell how someone is doing something or not doing something.

    Remember that time yesterday when we were talking about a FAQ.

    This is why it wouldn’t work.

  109. Bag of Pucks says:

    GriffCity:

    Please tell me I am not the only one who thinks he is a dud???

    I don’t think he’s a dud. He just plays too high up the depth chart. He’s probably a great 5D and a decent 4D with the right partner.

    He does have some focus issues and I’m hopeful Eakins and whomever else is handling the D mentoring can coach him up to be more consistent.

    He’s also not a player that will ever play with an edge, so he needs to be partnered with someone who will. You can have a few of these guys on your team. There’s a Lady Byng trophy for a reason. But too many of them on the roster and you’re setting yourself up to be a first round exit type of team. Match up a player like Lucic or Horton against Petry and they will eat his lunch all the live long day. Obviously it’s on the coach to avoid that matchup.

  110. Derek says:

    On a somewhat related note, Damien Cox is a really smart dude that watches a lot of hockey, may or may not have played at a semi-pro beer league level and sometimes puts words on paper.

    http://www.thestar.com/sports/the_spin/2014/04/the_attention_turns_to_leiweke_as_leafs_contemplate_what_happened_and_where_to_turn_now.html

    Damien Cox: The flaccid will of the Leafs as a team and organization down the stretch was, to say the least, shocking. Analytics might help explain some of the team’s downturn, but the truth is that the Leafs defied analytics for good chunks of the season and succumbed to them at other stages, and certainly when it mattered most after the goaltending faltered. That those who believe analytics explain everything also seem to believe that nobody would have noticed the Leafs were a weak defensive squad without their number-crunching is funny, but let them injure their shoulders patting themselves on the back. Instead of seeing advanced analytics as an interesting addition to hockey-think, they demand all must treat such analysis as The Holy Bible, and those who refuse to adhere are slammed as dinosaurs and stale “MSMers.”

    That’s okay. Everyone’s entitled to their point of view.

    Two short months ago:

    https://twitter.com/DamoSpin/status/432329868370378753

    Life is beautiful.

    http://assets1.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/COX_DAMIEN.png

  111. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    GriffCity:
    You guys are hilarious, i mean it. I am sorry i did not copy and paste some statistics i found somewhere or site every single reference to show why I think Petry is a bad player, I was unaware that it was so important.All that I can tell you is that I wish I was wrong and I wish Petry was better.

    I may not have as much expert blogging experience as some couch wizards out there but I have played hockey my entire life, and for a while at a very high level, and for as long as I can remember I have been an Oilers fan. At the end of the day I want the team to be better the same as you do but I cannot for the life of me see why people continue to defend Petry.

    You cannot continue to site obscure stats and determine that they are enough to make Petry a viable option as a top 4 d-man because on any other NHL team he would be lucky to have a job.
    Im fairly sure Dubnyk had some “good stats” before imploding and showcasing why he is as bad as I always thought he was, despite his blogging defenders who swore he was the man. Now he is done, never to see the light of the NHL again but a few short months ago people thought he was good enough to be the Oilers starting goalie for the year?It’s not all about the stats because stats don’t include the times he gets beat outside, or the times he misses an assignment in his own end, or the times he gets out-muscled in the corners, stats don’t show that. Its the intangibles that im referring to here, something that a guy like a Hendricks brings although he may not be “killing it” on the stats page.

    Hockey cannot be broken down into metrics, this isn’t Moneyball . People who know the game, people who love the game know what they are watching and can tell how someone is doing something or not doing something.

    Petry simply does not play a good enough all around game to be remotely considered a top 4 d-man and I am sorry if that hurts anyone’s feelings out there but it’s the truth.You only needed to watch Johnson, a puck pounding defenseman waltz in and with asimple move blow right past Petry for the uncontested GWG last night to have an idea of why I think he is a bad d-man.

    Please tell me I am not the only one who thinks he is a dud???

    Haha.

    that was great man. Thanks!

  112. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Thanks man!

  113. Lowetide says:

    GriffCity:
    You guys are hilarious, i mean it. I am sorry i did not copy and paste some statistics i found somewhere or site every single reference to show why I think Petry is a bad player, I was unaware that it was so important.All that I can tell you is that I wish I was wrong and I wish Petry was better.

    I may not have as much expert blogging experience as some couch wizards out there but I have played hockey my entire life, and for a while at a very high level, and for as long as I can remember I have been an Oilers fan. At the end of the day I want the team to be better the same as you do but I cannot for the life of me see why people continue to defend Petry.

    You cannot continue to site obscure stats and determine that they are enough to make Petry a viable option as a top 4 d-man because on any other NHL team he would be lucky to have a job.
    Im fairly sure Dubnyk had some “good stats” before imploding and showcasing why he is as bad as I always thought he was, despite his blogging defenders who swore he was the man. Now he is done, never to see the light of the NHL again but a few short months ago people thought he was good enough to be the Oilers starting goalie for the year?It’s not all about the stats because stats don’t include the times he gets beat outside, or the times he misses an assignment in his own end, or the times he gets out-muscled in the corners, stats don’t show that. Its the intangibles that im referring to here, something that a guy like a Hendricks brings although he may not be “killing it” on the stats page.

    Hockey cannot be broken down into metrics, this isn’t Moneyball . People who know the game, people who love the game know what they are watching and can tell how someone is doing something or not doing something.

    Petry simply does not play a good enough all around game to be remotely considered a top 4 d-man and I am sorry if that hurts anyone’s feelings out there but it’s the truth.You only needed to watch Johnson, a puck pounding defenseman waltz in and with asimple move blow right past Petry for the uncontested GWG last night to have an idea of why I think he is a bad d-man.

    Please tell me I am not the only one who thinks he is a dud???

    Rock it!!!! This is awesome. Love the passion! Did you forget the graph?

  114. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    GMoney, essentially what we’re saying is the success rate is higher for Fs in the 1-10 range than it is for Gs in the same slots correct, hence the favourable odds play is to take the F?
    It makes sense, but it begs the question, what is the point of having scouts if you’re going to run your draft table purely as an odds calculation exercise?

    In large measure, yes – bias the picks to the locations that maximize the relative success. Scouts of course are still necessary – first to help you make the specific picks even within the context of an overall strategy, and secondly to maximize the success of your BPA selections. Assuming you have good scouts. Don’t forget that my analysis shows the average results of all drafting – presumably one hopes that our goal as a team is to do better than that!

    I want scouts with the cahones to say ‘this is a generational player and he’s the pick we should make’ regardless of what the odds calcs tell us about drafting a D or G at that slot over a F.
    For me BPA shouldn’t mean ‘best position to draft based on your slot and historical odds’ it should literally mean ‘who is the best player on the board at this time regardless of position?’

    I agree – if you genuinely think a player is a generational player and he’s available when you pick, you grab him regardless of what your generalized drafting strategy is. The thing is, though – if you think a player is a generational player and no-one else has picked him at, say #24, you might be falling victim to Smartest Guy in the Room Syndrome. That’s where playing the odds likely becomes a better bet for long-term success, and that’s really what I’m trying to get a sense of – “what are the odds?”

    To which I say, we’re underrating the importance of goalies.
    Baseball and Football understand implicitly the value of the player that touches the ball most (i.e. Pitcher and Quarterback), but for some reason hockey struggles with this.

    I agree, but I would be careful not to confuse roster construction, which as you say, should start from the goaltender out and should generally deal from a position of knowledge i.e. who are good players and who aren’t, and drafting strategy, which I would say is all about maximizing overall value, and usually is done with low knowledge i.e. it’s all about predicting the future, and so that’s where it becomes an odds game.

    Basically, I’m saying goalies are money, G Money ; )

    Extra points for topical use of G, money, and G Money!

  115. Clarence Oveur says:

    GriffCity,

    I have also played the game at a high level, and I’m of the opinion that Petry isn’t as bad as he’s made out to be. So your appeal to authority move isn’t going to stand out here.

    Yes, we’ll seeing the same things you are when he’s beaten at times one-on-one. Do you also see when he calmly skates or passes the puck out of the zone? Do you see his breakout passes? Do you see the way he doesn’t seem to get caught with bad pinches very often?

    Also, did you notice that he’s leading the team in hits? He’s not half as bad as you make him out to be. He’s being asked to play top pairing role when he’s better suited for 2nd pairing. He has 234 games under his belt, yet you’re writing him off right here and now? Based on what, the fact that he gets beat a few times? He’s made every defenceman who has been paired with him better.

    The stats cited aren’t meant to be the “be-all end-all” of hockey discussion. They’re a new method of analysis, and so far the results have been promising. NHL teams have adopted these metrics. Additionally, it’s not like the numbers being talked about are all that “obscure”. Measuring shots and scoring chance, accounting for how often the puck comes out of your own zone when you’re on the ice, and looking at someone’s linemates and who they play against aren’t baffling statistics. If you’ve played for as long as you have and at as high a level as you have, you would understand just how basic some of these stats really are.

    You know as well as I do that when you’re put on a “Helicopter Line” or have to face the opposition’s best line every shift that (1) producing offence will be difficult, and (2) you’re probably going to get scored on a few times and look bad in the process. There’s nothing truly obscure about it.

    I assume that you aren’t interested in learning more about these stats, and that’s unfortunate. I once had the same exact mentality as you (just ask Lowetide how often I berated him for using “calculators” and “spread sheets”), but I gave these metrics a chance and found that they’re right more often than not. They aren’t perfect nor infallible, but for the most part they implement simple hockey tenets that we’ve grown to accept from years of being involved in the game.

    I hope that you give it a chance.

  116. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: If they’re not up to snuff, they’re still going to get TONS of opportunities to prove otherwise – because of the initial investment made.

    A buddy of mine read the article and emailed me the perfect cutoff threshold: “Whatever Cam Barker played, plus one”.

  117. G Money says:

    GriffCity: Hockey cannot be broken down into metrics, this isn’t Moneyball .

    Until Moneyball came along, they said the same thing about baseball.

  118. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Rock it!!!!

    can you believe I grew up thinking this was the dimension of Herbie Hancock?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHhD4PD75zY

  119. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity: Hockey cannot be broken down into metrics, this isn’t Moneyball . People who know the game, people who love the game know what they are watching and can tell how someone is doing something or not doing something.

    Dave Tippet wants you to know that we need more than watching with our instincts and well worn thoughts to fully evaluate what players contribute:

    “I’ll give you an example,” he said. “We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can’t move the puck.

    “Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn’t defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he’s making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he’s only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.”

    Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/coyotes/articles/2012/04/06/20120406phoenix-coyotes-dave-tippett-perfect-fit.html#ixzz2yR2dqeND

    Next time your eyes identify a turnover machine go back and find out if it’s because he’s actually moving the puck more than his peers. see Hall, Taylor. (Eakins took a while to figure out that one but he did figure it out)

  120. Mr DeBakey says:

    Steve Tambellini played hockey at a very high level
    As did Mike Milbury….

    Maybe the Oilers could trade Petry for a steady Saskatchewan-born LH defensive D-Man with 775 NHL games on his resume.
    Especially one whose ice time has been cut back this past season.

  121. Rondo says:

    Ducey:
    I don’t get why LT hates Bennett.

    Ranked Number 1 by Central Scouting

    Relatively young – is June 1996, Reinhart is November 1995

    Only in his second year in the CHL.Reinhart and Eklbad are in their third.

    Close to 100 pts and 100 PIMs.

    Bennett had 118 PIM’s.Reinhart had 11.

    Know for his compete level and grit.

    Compared to Dougie Gilmour

    Plays center.

    Yeah, the Oilers couldn’t possibly need that.

    Ducey,

    Bennett looks like the obvious choice for centre , last year MacT did not mention Elias Lindholm in the draft who knows if he was a target.

  122. Bank Shot says:

    Hammers: Please tell me what your going to get better than Marincin for under 800 K & Klef under 980K

    The Oilers don’t need cheaper players. They aren’t capped out. They just need better ones.

    I can’t believe there are as many fans here as there are that think the blueline is in decent shape.

    The Oilers are a terrible hockey team and continue to be so after changing goaltenders 36 times this season. The blueline is a big part of why the Oilers are so terrible.

  123. delooper says:

    G Money: c

    These aren’t the Moneyballs you’re looking for.

  124. Lowetide says:

    Another thing about Bennett in the plus column? At even strength, he’s pretty close to Reinhart

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/3/31/leon

    as a scorer.

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