DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

The 2014 NHL Entry Draft will likely resemble the 2008 edition, for a couple of reasons. The Oilers don’t have a second or a third round pick in 2014, just like 2008. The Oilers walked away with an outstanding player in 2008, and they will again in 2014 (assuming the player doesn’t get injured).

2008 DRAFT PICKS

  • #22 overall R Jordan Eberle 275 NHL games
  • #103 overall D Johan Motin 1 NHL game
  • #133 overall L Phil Cornet 2 NHL games
  • #163 overall L Teemu Hartikainen 52 NHL games
  • #193 overall D Jordan Bendfeld

This is a fine draft, we talked about it here and I gave it the edge over the Hemsky draft (your mileage may vary). Out of the 2008 NHL draft, the Oilers still have:

  • their 1line RW in Jordan Eberle
  • Mark Fraser, should they choose to sign him

That isn’t really an effective way to evaluate the scouts, after all they didn’t trade Hartikainen to Toronto. My own belief (thumbnail sketch mode) is that any player chosen outside the top 100 overall shouldn’t be expected to turn out. The Oilers hit a big fly with the 22nd overall pick, I think they did well.

2014 DRAFT PICKS

  • #3 overall (first round) LEON DRAISAITL
  • #91 overall (fourth round, this is the Bryzgalov return) DYSIN MAYO
  • #116 overall (fourth round, this is the Mike Brown return) ALEXIS VANIER
  • #128 overall (fifth round, this is the first pick of the Ales Hemsky return)
  • #136 overall (fifth round, this is the Nick Schultz return)
  • #153 overall (sixth round)
  • #183 overall (seventh round)

How many of these fellows can we reasonably expect to turn out? Well, the 91st overall pick might turn into something, and #116 isn’t too far down the list.  The Oilers draft early and more often than in 2008.

Is it reasonable to expect Edmonton to get a better player than Jordan Eberle at 3rd overall? How much better should we expect him to be? What about the 91st pick? Should we expect more than Motin? Hartikainen?

 

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108 Responses to "DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,

    I asked Brock Otten where Sam Bennett would have been drafted last year. He answered with a comparison.

    “As much as I like Sean Monahan, I would have taken Bennett ahead of him and I think he’s the better prospect. Bennett has a lot of the same qualities Monahan has (the hockey IQ especially), but is the more dynamic skater and the more physically aggressive player.”

    I then asked Corey Pronman if he agreed with this quote his answer was Yes.

  2. Younger Oil says:

    I know taking the BPA is always the right way to go, but should the scouts start possibly straying away from left handed defencemen whenever possible? I mean, I would be thrilled to get Vanier at #116, he has a great frame and decent numbers, but when we already have Marincin, Klefbom, Nurse, Gernat, Simpson, Musil, Betker, Laleggia, Oesterle etc as young LHD, doesn’t that somewhat limit the odds of these players getting NHL time, impeding both their future careers and potential trade values when we start moving some of them?

  3. Eastern Oil says:

    Rondo,

    That’s interesting, thank you for sharing that. You didn’t happen to ask the same about Leon D? or Reinhart?

  4. Eastern Oil says:

    Younger Oil,

    Simpson has stated that he actually prefers to play the RH side and I think JW mentioned today that Musil has played, and is very comfortable in playing, the right side as well.

  5. Rondo says:

    Eastern Oil,

    Brock Otten knows the OHL. Corey Pronman has Bennett ranked higher than Leon D

  6. Marcus Oilerius says:

    This just makes my desire for Bennett go even higher.

    If the Oilers really value character like they say they do, how can you not go for a kid who just gives it all and has the talent plus acceptable size?

    What was it that separated Hall from Seguin in the end? It wasn’t talent. In 2010 there was plenty of talk about “Hall is better now, Seguin has the ability to be better later”, and comparisons of their age and OHL experience, but Hall won because people like his junior coach said things like “He would take the net off its moorings with his teeth to score a goal.”

    Given the choice between a 6′ tall mini-Hall or mini-Gilmour, or a 6’2″ German Gagner, it’s really not hard to decide.

  7. Younger Oil says:

    Honestly. I’m kind of shocked about how many people want Bennett over Draisaitl. Sure, Bennett is a solid player, and throws his body around lots, and he’s going to have a really good career. But there is no way the Oilers will even have a chance in our division with RNH and Bennett as our top two centers. They won’t stand a chance against Thorton, Getzlaf, Kopitar etc.

    Even thinking of the battle of Alberta, I’d much rather have Nuge and Draisaitl going against Monahan and Bennett than Nuge and Bennett against Monahan and Draisaitl for the next decade.

    Draisaitl is the player we have waited almost 10 years for. A big center who can protect the puck in the offensive zone, and make a play. Just because he is not overly physical doesn’t mean he doesn’t know how to use his body very effectively.

    While there is the age difference, the size difference is much more crucial. We need some variance in size in the top 6. No matter how hard you fight for the puck, a guy who is 4 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier is going to get and keep the puck the majority of the time in a 50/50 battle.

    You can teach a player how to become more physical and use their body more effectively. You can’t teach someone how to grow 4 inches.

  8. Rondo says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Corey Pronman ‏@coreypronman 4h
    No. Better skaters in 2014. RT @JoshBayliss: Bennett looks like one of the best skaters in recent drafts, worse than maybe only MacKinnon?

  9. Pouzar says:

    Size my A$$…who is the best player…I dunno…but Stu better find out and pick him.

  10. Rondo says:

    Younger Oil,

    Leon D is 6 ‘ 1 Oct 27 1995

    Sam Bennett 6 ’0 June 20 1996

  11. Pouzar says:

    1. OKC Fyten, (7) (Miller, Lander), 13:24

  12. Andy P says:

    Gag’s only good year was the year before Bucky arrived. We’ve seen comments about Bucky saying things about Eakins behind his back, we know Bucky is the only constant left in the constant suck since 2008/9.

    I regard Smith and Chabot as lesser issues, I’m not arguing that they are competent, or not, but I feel that the combination of the reported bad mouthing and Bucky’s being the only end to end constant of suck renders his removal necessary for the good of the team.

    I believe that MacT will do the best job possible in the circumstances to upgrade the roster, but I also believe that moving Bucky out, or keeping him, will be the single most important move – or non-move – that will have the greatest impact on the team for 2015.

  13. Pouzar says:

    1. OKC Musil, (2) (Lander, Horak), 18:19

  14. hunter1909 says:

    0-0 in Game 1 but I’m taking the Red Wings in the series.

    What a hell reward for Boston’s finishing first.

  15. hunter1909 says:

    Red Wings making Chara look like a big oaf.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    I asked Brock Ottenwhere Sam Bennett would have been drafted last year. He answered with a comparison.

    “As much as I like Sean Monahan, I would have taken Bennett ahead of him and I think he’s the better prospect. Bennett has a lot of the same qualities Monahan has (the hockey IQ especially), but is the more dynamic skater and the more physically aggressive player.”

    I then asked Corey Pronmanif he agreed with this quote his answer was Yes.

    Yeah, I’m not certain who the better prospect is, but do find it interesting so many believe in Sam Bennett. The one thing I do find interesting about him is his EV point total. I’ll be doing the NHLE’s and such as we roll along through spring it’ll be interesting to see people like Ehlers look as we get closer to the draft.

    A LONG way to go.

  17. hags9k says:

    Younger Oil,

    I disagree. I could see if Draisaitl was 6’3, 220 but as Rondo just pointed out we are talking about ONE INCH!

    Take the better player!

    Bennett is ranked higher than Draisaitl by:

    Woodlief (Redline)
    Pronman
    Mackenzie
    ISS
    CS

    So he is basically ranked higher everywhere except in the Edm journal and Roms house, (sorry Rom) and add to that he plays a style that is sorely needed on our club and sorely missed by our fanbase. One inch! Bennett all the way!

    GOILERS!!

  18. Lowetide says:

    hags9k:
    Younger Oil,

    I disagree.I could see if Draisaitl was 6’3, 220 but as Rondo just pointed out we are talking about ONE INCH!

    Take the better player!

    Bennett is ranked higher than Draisaitl by:

    Woodlief (Redline)
    Pronman
    Mackenzie
    ISS
    CS

    It’s not the final ranking, and he’s ahead by one. I think we have to admit, that despite our passion and the history of the draft, there’s a chance Draisaitl may end up being the better player.

    Right? I mean, scouts aren’t all-knowing, and that goes for us too. Right?

  19. Rondo says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I’m not certain who the better prospect is, but do find it interesting so many believe in Sam Bennett. The one thing I do find interesting about him is his EV point total. I’ll be doing the NHLE’s and such as we roll along through spring it’ll be interesting to see people like Ehlers look as we get closer to the draft.

    A LONG way to go.

    And miles to go before I sleep
    And miles to go before I sleep

  20. Lois Lowe says:

    Andy P,

    Where are you getting this from? I haven’t heard anything like that.

  21. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I’m not certain who the better prospect is, but do find it interesting so many believe in Sam Bennett.

    Age, speed, attitude. Bennett is a couple of months from the 2015 draft class. Draisaitl is 6 weeks from being in the 2013 class.

    The verbal meanwhile, reads almost like Perron vs Paajarvi. One guy plays big, and uses his talents to score, the other is big and uses his talents to try to score.

  22. blackadder says:

    Pouzar:
    Size my A$$…who is the best player…I dunno…but Stu better find out and pick him.

    I get why size is seen as an issue, especially after seeing teams with size, like LA and San Jose, dominate the Oilers time and again. But, add two inches and ten pounds to every player currently on the Oilers, the results would be the same. The fact is, Oilers haven’t spent eight years out of the playoffs because we’re small, we’ve spent eight years out of the playoffs because we just aren’t talented enough.

  23. B-Dog says:

    Man watching the Bruins v. Wings game and Lucic bags Dekeyser. Same play as the last time he did it (can’t remember the player). The first 5 ime he was able to pass it off as an accident. This one is so obvious on purpose does the league look at it as intent to injure just to put a stop to it?

  24. hags9k says:

    Lowetide,

    Absolutely Draisaitl could end up hall of fame. Nobody can say for sure who ends up a better player right now they are so young yet. The fun of it for us is arguing like we do know!

    However, when a strong pattern starts to emerge, it would be wise to lend it some consideration no? Wait I mean not to worry we know KL is the smartest in the room regardless…

    So far we do know that most scouts have Bennett ahead. And Leon seems to get talked about like he has 40lbs on him or something.

    I won’t lie, the Leon world juniors and post juniors funk bothers me, and combined with the rankings and reports of Bennett’s skating, 200 foot game, and toughness, I have my favorite C.

    But long way to go for sure, and I will enjoy bumper hitching on this blog’s ride to the draft and reserve my right to change my mind a few more times.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Marcus Oilerius: Age, speed, attitude.Bennett is a couple of months from the 2015 draft class.Draisaitl is 6 weeks from being in the 2013 class.

    The verbal meanwhile, reads almost like Perron vs Paajarvi.One guy plays big, and uses his talents to score, the other is big and uses his talents to try to score.

    Yeah, see, there’s a lot of hyperbole in what you’re saying there. Offensively, they are similar players and yet one uses his talents to score and the other tries to score.

    As always, it’s going to be a fun spring!

  26. dangilitis says:

    Andy P,

    Ya, where are you getting this from? Because if it’s true, why would MacT publicly show the love for both Bucky and Eakins? One of them would be on the way out if this were true.

    Listen, my wife and Carla are good friends and I know Bucky. And people think I am being biased when I go on blogs and perceive me as defending Bucky.

    But the funny thing is, I am consistently calling for him to be fired. He does not seem to be part of the solution here. He’ll bounce back, surely will find a role within the NHL or doing something for the game he loves. I am not worried about him, nor should MacT or Eakins, they should always be looking to upgrade all of their assistants.

    BUT… let’s pump the brakes here on the hyperboles. Trading Bucky for Todd Nelson would be an improvement, I truly believe. “The single most important move – or non-move – that will have the greatest impact on the team for 2015″ – what an exaggeration!

    I am not sure people understand what role the assistant coach plays in a team’s success. No one is talking about Tom Renney as being crucial to the Red Wings’ success. I don’t even know who the assistants are in Colorado. Bucky doesn’t call the 4th liners to go out against 1st liners or to “build momentum” after a goal for or against. Bucky doesn’t yell at Hall on CBC HNIC after he gets drizzled with water. Bucky doesn’t abandon his swarm system when there are signs that it would have helped if the goal tending improved after a simply analysis. Bucky doesn’t make Eakins put Gagner in Arcobello’s place 60 games too early. Bucky doesn’t tell the media that he’s improved this team over the past 30 games despite the abundance of evidence out there that Scrivens and Fasth rescued the team from scoring chance hell. Because it’s not Bucky’s job. The buck (pardon the pun) stops with the head coach. Yes, Bucky should be able to provide insight to Eakins, but we don’t know what is told. Either Bucky has failed to help Eakins, or Eakins doesn’t care to listen. So Bucky should go. But Eakins better pull on his boot straps, and his season was so shitty I would welcome yet another new coach who knows what he’s doing (aka Trotz).

    If you want to talk about the single most important coaching change to make or not make this summer – it’s Eakins for Trotz. Second would be upgrading the goaltending coaching (man, Trotz’ comments say it all). Then Acton, then Bucky and Smith.

    The only new variables in the coaching that led to the shitty start this season… Acton and Eakins. Bucky and Smith were not part of the solution, but they were not part of the problem last year when the team improved under Kreuger.

  27. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Lowetide,

    Good catch.

    How about this – reading about Draisaitl, I get the impression of a 6’2″ tall Sam Gagner. Perimeter player for the most part, does his scoring by being smart and taking smart chances so he’ll go into the blue to score, but won’t make a presence of himself there, and isn’t noted for being physical.

    When I read about Sam Bennett, I read something like a smaller Taylor Hall or a more skilled Dustin Brown. Fast, physical, dedicated to both ends of the ice. The kind of player with the determination to win a game, rather than a scoring race or bigger contract. Hossa vs Heatley.

    edit: or Bonsignore vs Smyth, as someone else put it!

  28. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, see, there’s a lot of hyperbole in what you’re saying there. Offensively, they are similar players and yet one uses his talents to score and the other tries to score.

    As always, it’s going to be a fun spring!

    I can’t get past the age difference. Just can’t.

  29. Lowetide says:

    hags9k:
    Lowetide,

    Absolutely Draisaitl could end up hall of fame.Nobody can say for sure who ends up a better player right now they are so young yet.The fun of it for us is arguing like we do know!

    However, when a strong pattern starts to emerge, it would be wise to lend it some consideration no?Wait I mean not to worry we know KL is the smartest in the room regardless…

    So far we do know that most scouts have Bennett ahead. And Leon seems to get talked about like he has 40lbs on him or something.

    I won’t lie, the Leon world juniors and post juniors funk bothers me, and combined with the rankings and reports of Bennett’s skating, 200 foot game, and toughness, I have my favorite C.

    But long way to go for sure, and I will enjoy bumper hitching on this blog’s ride to the draft and reserve my right to change my mind a few more times.

    Yeah, I think the WJ’s hurt Draisaitl in people’s minds. Good point.

  30. Younger Oil says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Have you been able to see them play at all? I’ll admit that I haven’t seen Bennett a ton, just highlights, but I’ve seen Draisaitl as much as I can, and he is a treat to watch. He has a very unique skill set that most Oilers don’t add, and adds unique elements to the team offensively more than what I’ve seen from Bennett.

    Here are Draisaitl’s top offensive highlights:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkR-F14cK1Y

    Here are Bennett’s top offensive highlights:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svCdZiNfbvg

    While both are incredibly good talents, in Bennett’s highlight package I don’t see anything notable where he uses his body to make a play, he mostly uses speed to get space, and takes advantage of poor defensive coverage.

    Draisaitl seems much more able to make a power move, much of the time against larger players (the highlight at 3:40 is against a 6’4” 215lb defender). His speed, while not as good as Bennett’s, I find is quite underrated. I think he has equal playmaking ability to Gagner, as does Bennett, but I just look at the way he plays and see that it is something that the Oilers are missing and truly need. While he is not overly physical, he really knows how to effectively shield the puck and use his body.

    As for size, I’ll admit on paper they are similar heights, but looking at them on the ice, Draisaitl looks a lot bigger than 6’1”. At 1:10, he seems to be very similar size-wise to Moroz, who is listed at 6’3” (although perspective can be weird).

    I’ll definitely admit I’m biased, and the Oilers will get a great player no matter what, but I would really like to see the King of Leon in Copper and Blue.

  31. godot10 says:

    The Oilers need more players who go to the danger zone out of innate nature. That is Bennett more than Draisaitl. Bennett is not a perimeter player. There is less risk, IMHO, in Bennett, because 1) he is one of the youngest players in the draft, and 2) his game will translate better because of his skating ability.

    In my mind, I’ve decided I prefer Bennett to Draisaitl.

    Reinhart vs. Bennett is a tougher choice. I need to look at more video. Bennett has more Taylor Hall in him. Reinhart has more Eberle.

    Pavelski and Couture, who are San Jose’s centres of the medium term, are not exactly big. Detroit has done better in the Western Conference in the last decade than San Jose and Anaheim with Datsyuk and Zetterberg outdueling Thornton/Marleau and Getzlaf more than vice versa.

  32. B-Dog says:

    Lowetide,

    I thought the rule was you can’t go to WJC and hurt your draft stock with bad play. Only improve it with good play. Last year Drouin helped his and Mackinnon treaded water. Driasaitl didn’t have the luxury Mackinnon had in team Canada.

  33. Younger Oil says:

    As for people saying Draisaitl is not a big game player, while he did not do great at the WJC, and other tournaments where he was playing with players for the first time, those are very small sample sizes, and you can’t expect players to do incredibly well when playing with new linemates, especially on an inferior German team.

    What I can say is that he scored 45 points in his final 21 WHL games, when his team was fighting to get into the playoffs. It was an incredibly strong finish.

    Especially considering that he scored 44 more points than the next highest scoring forward on the team over the course of the season.

  34. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Younger Oil,

    I saw PA@ Edmonton in February, we lost that one by a fair bit despite outplaying the Raiders. Leon didn’t stand out too much there, though as I recall he had a power play goal and made some nifty passes.

    Never seen Bennett, except highlights.

    I watched your clips and my concern is that Draisaitl won’t be able to use his size to the same effect in the NHL. Bennett will be able to use his speed. Bennett also looks to have the better shot, while Draisaitl is a better playmaker with better vision.

    Mostly I admit it’s just the irrational verbal analysis driving me. The way the scouts and writers talk about them, Bennett sounds like the kind of player who comes back to haunt the Oilers for a decade. Draisaitl not so much.

    wow, 45 points in 21 games? That’s extremely impressive, and a pretty good sample size.

  35. striker says:

    Datsyuk, what a player.

    Looks like they earned the win too.

    http://www.extraskater.com/game/2014-04-18-red-wings-bruins

  36. striker says:

    Damn, Iowa scored. If the Barons can fight their way back and get it to overtime, they can clinch tonight.

  37. striker says:

    Lander to Horak, perfect!!!! Hold on boys!!!!

  38. Eastern Oil says:

    Horak ties it!

    So you’re saying we have a chance….

    Edit: That’s Lander’s 3rd point tonight too

  39. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Lander 3 assists, +2 on the night.

    (sign him!)

  40. Eastern Oil says:

    And they are in the playoffs, that is a hell of a run by Nelson, the coaching staff and the guys. It will be great to see some of those young guys have a series in the playoffs.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Barons win. What a coaching job, and credit to those kids down there this season. Incredible story.

  42. striker says:

    Barons got the OT winner for good measure anyway. They are playoff bound. Texas Stars await, I believe. Billy Ranford’s nephew and former Oiler and powerplay powerhouse Tobey Peterson are on that team.

  43. striker says:

    Lowetide:
    Barons win. What a coaching job, and credit to those kids down there this season. Incredible story.

    Agreed, Todd Nelson, impressive work.

  44. godot10 says:

    C’mom Mr. Poile. Nelson is the next Trotz, the “son-of-Trotz”. Hire the guy.

  45. OilLeak says:

    Entertaining game by the Barons. Looks like Nurse got the green light in OT to push the offense. Needs to work on his defense by my eye, saw him chasing the play at times. Another year of Junior and a year in the AHL will serve him well.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Big win the Barons. great job. make the playoffs. now they can give some of the kids a twirl tomorrow.
    should be interesting.

  47. smellyglove says:

    Why does McKenzie’s list indicate Draisil as a left winger?

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    smellyglove:
    Why does McKenzie’s list indicate Draisil as a left winger?

    his lists often have artifacts of errors and things that haven’t been updated. the vital stats are often wrong on his lists too.

    TSN doesn’t do the web content very well.

    best place for accurate info is through the various CHL websites.

  49. Eastern Oil says:

    It will be interesting to see who comes in and out of the lineup for the Barons or if Nelson picks a lineup and sticks with it. Gernat has been scratched these last couple of games for Nurse and Khaira was HS’d tonight as well despite a few good games.

    It’s nice to see the up and coming prospects in the playoffs but Nelson owes it to his team to ice the best lineup, not matter what age group it consists of.

  50. hunter1909 says:

    Just watched over 3 minutes of highlights of Bennet and the other guy; Bennet appears a far superior hockey player…more opportunistic(intelligence), speedier, and aggressive; while the german(sorry I can’t figure out that name) plays more like a big stiff.

    Now, big stiffs sometimes turn out well, but I can’t think of any.

  51. flyfish1168 says:

    Sam Bennett reminds of Gilbert Brule. I watch Brule through junior and what I have seen on TV and read about Bennett I hope he would be able to bring it up to the next level.

    Draisil weak WJH tourney could be because he is on a weak team.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Christ. This entire thread is exactly what this blog opposes. WILD WILD claims on nothing. Honest to Christ. WE’RE NOT SCOUTS.

  53. One-Timer says:

    That was some crazy ass pressure by Anaheim’s fourth line…
    Still 1-1 though..

  54. frjohnk says:

    flyfish1168:
    Sam Bennett reminds of Gilbert Brule. I watch Brule through junior and what I have seen on TV and read about BennettI only hope he would be able to bring it up to the next level.

    Draisilweak WJH tourney could be because he is on a weak team.

    It’s too bad for Brule, I had hoped that he could have came back with the Yotes this past year Depression and lack of confidence, not to mention an idiot father helped derail his career. Great junior career. But some guys just don’t pan out.

  55. cabbiesmacker says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: his lists often have artifacts of errors and things that haven’t been updated. the vital stats are often wrong on his lists too.

    TSN doesn’t do the web content very well.

    best place for accurate info is through the various CHL websites.

    Button shows him as a LW too but pretty much all others show him to be a C

    If it means anything Haydn Fleury spoke well of LD this week. Said he’s a load and very good at puck protection

  56. One-Timer says:

    Perry with the cannon.

  57. Marcus Oilerius says:

    frjohnk,

    Brule and O’Sullivan are perfect examples of bad parenting. Too much pushing, too much criticism. You make a talented, driven kid, but with frail confidence.

  58. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:
    Barons win. What a coaching job, and credit to those kids down there this season. Incredible story.

    We’d see a big difference in those oft listed core players if Nelson was coaching them. I strongly believe that even though my reasons for wanting to see him here are pretty personally biased

  59. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Lowetide,

    Well, in the absence of hard data and eyeballs at games, we guess.

  60. "Steve Smith" says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    frjohnk,

    Brule and O’Sullivan are perfect examples of bad parenting.

    Um, you might want to shut up about Patrick O’Sullivan’s parenting, lest you come across as a massive, massive shithead.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Lowetide,

    Well, in the absence of hard data and eyeballs at games, we guess.

    True. Still, let’s not make sweeping statements about one guy being God and the other being dirt. It reduces the conversation to flowery statements, gang attacks and loud music.

  62. Derek says:

    I heard that Leon Draisaitl often leaves the seat up and tips less than five percent, therefore I conclude that he is selfish both on and off the ice while Sam Bennett has impeccable table and bathroom manners and so he is righteous and just.

    It is known.

  63. Marcus Oilerius says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Well thank you for the polite correction, but I do recall tales of O’Sullivan’s dad being an overbearing, abusive prick. Is that not the truth?

  64. One-Timer says:

    So right after LT complains of the airy claims about player’s on-ice attributes, the focus shifts to even less verifiable claims about how they were raised?

  65. Derek says:

    Sarah Orlesky has chosen… poorly this evening.

  66. "Steve Smith" says:

    One-Timer,

    Well, in the case of O’Sullivan, it’s pretty verifiable. Just in remarkably poor taste.

  67. cabbiesmacker says:

    One-Timer:
    So right after LT complains of the airy claims about player’s on-ice attributes, the focus shifts to even less verifiable claims about how they were raised?

    Less verifiable? I would have assumed the television exposes were pretty verifiable.

  68. Marcus Oilerius says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Poor taste? Can you explain, because I’m really not understanding how acknowledging that O’Sullivan had a bad father is bad taste?

  69. "Steve Smith" says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Idle, barely informed speculation in a public forum on how other people’s abusive upbringings might have contributed to their (comparative) lack of career success is going to be considered in poor taste by most people, I would think. Or hope, anyway.

  70. Marcus Oilerius says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I think I’m OK on this topic.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/patrick-osullivan-and-what-should-have-been/
    http://sports.ca.msn.com/other/photos/gallery.aspx?cp-documentid=28460867&page=6
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/osullivan-skates-clear-of-sombre-past/article721408/

    There was also a CBC link that didn’t work, and a bunch of non-mainstream sources that discussed this in detail.

    I don’t understand your taboo on the subject, and I would appreciate it if you didn’t ask me to shut up over something that’s common knowledge, though I hope you understand I meant no offence. I don’t glory in O’Sullivan’s career troubles nor do I mock them, and I’d hope you’d note that I didn’t use the semi-pejorative acronym of his name.

  71. One-Timer says:

    Cogs with a shorty!

  72. "Steve Smith" says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Do you find that there’s often a “wooshing” sound in your ears?

  73. Marcus Oilerius says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Marcus Oilerius,
    Do you find that there’s often a “wooshing” sound in your ears?

    It’s been a pleasure talking to you. Until next time.

  74. "Steve Smith" says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Stay safe out there.

  75. One-Timer says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    “Steve Smith”,

    I think I’m OK on this topic.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/patrick-osullivan-and-what-should-have-been/
    http://sports.ca.msn.com/other/photos/gallery.aspx?cp-documentid=28460867&page=6
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/osullivan-skates-clear-of-sombre-past/article721408/

    There was also a CBC link that didn’t work, and a bunch of non-mainstream sources that discussed this in detail.

    I don’t understand your taboo on the subject, but I would appreciate it if you didn’t ask me to shut up over something that’s common knowledge.

    Alright, I guess a restraining order is pretty incontravertible as bad dad evidence. I’m glad John O’Sullivan wasn’t my father.

    As far as the public eye goes, was he a willing self-advocate like Theo Fleury, or is this issue being dealt with out in the open regardless of his wishes? Sorry, I haven’t taken the time to go through all your links.

  76. dangilitis says:

    Ya Horcs! That’s one more playoff point you would have ever gotten as an Oiler!

  77. Lewko says:

    One thing I wanted to posit regarding Bennett vs Leon is the wast coast bias factor. How many scouts are going to Prince Albert to watch Leon in depth and not just making conclusions based on wjc. 45 pts in final 21 games is impressive. There’s also more to it than height. The guy may only be an inch or inch and half taller than a nuge but may be able to play 30 to 40lbs heavier. To me there is value in diversity. Taking Bennett who best case is a poor mans Hall (and therefore duplicative) and worst case is brule is far riskier than taking a player who brings a skill set totally lacking at the nhl level… And to quote Mr. Button moving from Germany to play in Prince Albert at age 16 should answer any character/drive questions. Anyways just my thoughts…

  78. Lowetide says:

    Be careful out among them English, John Book!

  79. Marcus Oilerius says:

    One-Timer,

    I get the feeling it went public regardless of his wishes (after all, he pressed charges on his dad), but then talked about it, particularly around the time of the draft.

  80. One-Timer says:

    Lewko:
    One thing I wanted to posit regarding Bennett vs Leon is the wast coast bias factor

    I bet Deadmanwaking could write some intriguing things about the wast coast. Sounds like “waistcoat.”

    Good argument though… even 20 lbs is a big damn difference. As I watch these opening round games, I’m in the Draisatl camp too.

  81. One-Timer says:

    Lowetide:
    Be careful out among them English, John Book!

    Is there an Amish colony in PA, or is that just the Fireball talking? Oh wait… PA = Prince Albert / Pennsylvania…?

  82. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    what the hell’s going on around here?

    it’s totally amazing.

    I get that people are just waking up to the draft and these kids, but they are all pretty damn special. Pick a favorite, it’s fun… but let’s try to have some perspective on the others and make modest, empirically sound judgements. Not sweeping, evidence free judgements. they aren’t fun.

    ICYMI: Stauffer’s second hour yesterday (thurs? maybe wed) had Button on to talk all the kids EDM might take and then Draisaitl and Reinhart’s coaches. It was an interesting segment. Button nearly lost it when Stauffer asked if Draisaitl had character issues. Reinhart sounds like a real peach. Stauffer said he was going to have some people on from the OHL soon.

  83. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    PS. Leaf twitter is just going through something similar and freaking out about Ritchie right now. it’s a funny reflection of EDM and Draisaitl.

  84. Lowetide says:

    One-Timer: Is there an Amish colony in PA, or is that just the Fireball talking?Oh wait… PA = Prince Albert / Pennsylvania…?

    Oh God no, I just liked the meter of the words against the backdrop of the conversation. I also had the visual of the old man making the ‘ring the bell’ motion too. The best moment in Witness? Kelly McGillis, ALL of her in splendid youthful beauty, turning to the open door and greeting Harrison Ford.

    9,999 men out of 10,000 would be barn raising to this day, and that’s for sure.

  85. Younger Oil says:

    LT,

    I just wanted to say, my apologies if I came across as anti-Bennett at all, or caused the conversation to sway from it’s intended purpose. The Oilers will be lucky to get any of the top 4, each would fill a big hole in our lineup. I just personally hope it’s Draisaitl, but I’ll be content and cheer like hell for whoever we pick.

  86. Henry says:

    I miss Kelly McGillis. Actually I miss Peter Weir’s movies too. Is he done?

    The thrust of the thread seems to assume that Leon vs Bennett is the decision the Oilers will face. Having seen neither play, I have little opinion. However it may be most productive for all to think about every pairwise combination of the four players that might fall to the OIlers. Then naturally the Oilers might go and take Dal Colle who they apparently scouted with senior guys.

    From what I’ve heard and read about the players and think I know about Buffalo and Florida, my gut says that Ekblad and Bennett go 1,2.

    If the decision is Reinhardt vs Draisatl et al the Oilers would probably find it hard not to deny the Flames this Reinhart. I know I would.

  87. G Money says:

    LT asks: Is it reasonable to expect Edmonton to get a better player than Jordan Eberle at 3rd overall? How much better should we expect him to be?

    As some of you know, I recently did a bunch of number crunching on draft success rates. Here is some historical information on drafting #3 (data from 1998 to 2009).

    Forwards taken:
    Yr Rd # Team Name Pos
    1999 1 3 Vancouver Henrik Sedin C
    2000 1 3 Minnesota Marian Gaborik L
    2001 1 3 Tampa Bay Alexandr Svitov C
    2003 1 3 Florida Nathan Horton C
    2006 1 3 Chicago Jonathan Toews C
    2007 1 3 Phoenix Kyle Turris C
    2009 1 3 Colorado Matt Duchene C

    Out of that august group, the average
    Games Played = 536
    Average Goals Scored = 160
    Average Assists = 248
    Average Pts = 408
    Average Pts Per Game = 0.762

    If you exclude Svitov, the PPG jumps to about 0.78, which is Eberle territory.

    So what does history tell us about the #3 draft pick? If we pick a forward, there is an 87.5% chance of success, and that player will be in the same range as Eberle on a PPG basis.

    Before we poo our pants – a 0.8ppg range is solidly in Sedin, Horton, Duchene territory – outstanding for someone expected to slot in at 2C.

  88. Ivan says:

    hags9k:
    Younger Oil,

    I disagree.I could see if Draisaitl was 6’3, 220 but as Rondo just pointed out we are talking about ONE INCH!

    Take the better player!

    Bennett is ranked higher than Draisaitl by:

    Woodlief (Redline)
    Pronman
    Mackenzie
    ISS
    CS

    So he is basically ranked higher everywhere except in the Edm journal and Roms house, (sorry Rom) and add to that he plays a style that is sorely needed on our club and sorely missed by our fanbase.One inch! Bennett all the way!

    Well, I guess that settles it, if we get Bennett, his nickname must be “Hedwig”.
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0248845/

  89. bendelson says:

    Lowetide:
    Christ. This entire thread is exactly what this blog opposes. WILD WILD claims on nothing. Honest to Christ. WE’RE NOT SCOUTS.

    But I know a guy…

  90. 719 says:

    The one thing that sticks out to me is the difference in penalties. Draisatl takes way less penalty minutes than Bennett. This is important, the last thing you want is one of your best players constantly putting you down a man/not on the ice to score. Hotheads can cost you at the worst times in important games.

    Draisatl is a hell of a talent, and I like his unique skill set. To those worried about his lack of physicality, there is a gentleman named Kopitar in LA who plays a similar game, and would be welcomed on every single NHL team.

    I also do not buy into the speed argument. We have a team full of speedsters, we need some guys that can hold on to the puck. Datsyuk, is not the fastest but is absolutely magic with his stick.

    The argument may be moot. As has been pointed out on other blogs, the Florida Panthers last year passed on Seth Jones, who on paper is the superior talent to Ekblad. Could Rienhart and Draisatl go 1-2? It could be, leaving the Oil the choice between Bennet and Ekblad…

  91. mumbai max says:

    OK. Not wanting to make sweeping (or flowery) statements or generalizations, I have spent the last three days watching video, reading scouting reports, looking at the lists, dissecting advanced stats, and consulting my local guru.

    The result of all this data is…….drum roll please…..

    Bennett is God
    Draisaitl is Dirt

    You are welcome ;-)

  92. oilspillcali says:

    If we draft Bennett I think our lineup should look similar to this
    HALL-NUGE-EBERLE
    YAK-BENNETT/ACQUIRED CENTRE-PERRON
    HENDRICKS- BENNETT/ARCO- ACQUIRED RW
    GAZDIC-GORDON-PINNIZOTTO(if he deserves it after preseason)

  93. Ducey says:

    For those calling Draisaitl the “German Gagner”, the comparison isn’t there at all.

    Draisaitl reminds me of a Sedin. Great passing, good on the rush, very good at protecting the puck.

    He likes to keep the Dman to his back similar to the Sedins down low in the zone. Often the checker just bounces off him. If he winds up playing at about 210 lbs, he should be able to do this consistently in the NHL.

    I still like Bennett better but Neon Leon will be good too.

  94. icecastles says:

    Wow, am I ever glad I sat this thread out. Did someone put a link to Lowetide on HFBoards? The level of discourse lately is… different.

  95. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Deleted by poster

  96. sliderule says:

    Draisaitl’s older birth date and lack of scoring in his predraft season concerns me.

    The late birth date guys like Hall and Yakupov usually score a bunch in their predraft season.

    I looked up the stats for older birth date high draft picks who didn’t score much in predraft season and I found one,Eric Staal.He scored at 1.1pts/GM in predraft which is slightly more than Draisaitl.

    The good news is he could be Staal .The bad news he is the only one with those stats picked that high that was worth a top five pick.

  97. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide,

    Is it reasonable to expect Edmonton to get a better player than Jordan Eberle at 3rd overall? How much better should we expect him to be? What about the 91st pick? Should we expect more than Motin? Hartikainen?

    If the oilers pick one of the centers Reinhart/Bennett/Draisaitl and they can put up the points like Eberle, then its golden. We have another piece of the puzzle.

    For the rest of the draft, there just are not many bullets without a 2nd and 3rd rounder. MacT picked up these guys 4th round and later in 2013

    Jackson Houck
    Kyle Platzer
    Aidan Muir
    Evan Campbell
    Ben Betker
    Greg Chase

    There a couple of possible NHLers there. Chase and Houck. Betker could be a mean 6/7 D men. There is some good depth for OKC in those picks.

    And this is not including what they did in the first 3 rounds. MacT and the scouting did a splendid job last year at the draft, but it also helped that they got lucky ( Chase). If they can do half as good as last year at the draft, with the amount of picks they have, they will have done fine.

  98. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    McKeens also has Bennet higher:

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com

    Hockey News has Draisaitl at 1. They appear to be outliers:

    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/2014-nhl-draft-rankings-draisaitl-takes-over-no-1/

    One thing to keep in mind, is these ranking are all still provisional and there could be a lot of movement on the way to the final rankings.

    Last year I tracked de la Rose fall from 8th in BM’s Sept. ranking all the way to 29th in the final ranking.

    This year I’ve been following Nylander and Ehlers. They are all over the damn map. BM had him at 3 in Sept., now out of the top 10. Other services have him in the top 5 still. expect he’ll get more attn. as the under 18 goes on.

    All of which is to say, people are just now thinking this through and the seasons of some of these players haven’t run their course yet… there’s lots of time to crystallize opinion.

    ———–
    I’m surprise more of you aren’t interested in the fact that several services have Reinhart at the bottom end of the top 4. Looks nuts to me.

  99. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: And this is not including what they did in the first 3 rounds. MacT and the scouting did a splendid job last year at the draft, but it also helped that they got lucky ( Chase). If they can do half as good as last year at the draft, with the amount of picks they have, they will have done fine.

    I think there is a sense that last year and next year (not this one) were exceptionally deep draft years.

    I’m in no position to confirm that, just to relay what the chatter says.

    Doesn’t mean you can’t find a late round gem, esp. if your European scouts gain an edge on an underscouted market (Latvia!), but something to keep in mind.

    Also, I love Betker! I think he’ll have a great overage year in junior and surprise people if he comes to TC this year.

  100. frjohnk says:

    I should also add that the 2014 draft has already been quite good for us. The 2nd round pick helped get us David Perron and the 3rd round picked got us Ben Scrivens. Add in the 3rd overall, and its another success story.

  101. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think there is a sense that last year and next year (not this one) were exceptionally deep draft years.

    Also, I love Betker! I think he’ll have a great overage year in junior and surprise people if he comes to TC this year.

    Yeah, Im a fan. Ive watched his highlights and he skates relatively good for a guy that is 6 foot 6. Will challenge anybody, does not always win, but always willing to compete. If he can dangle, we might have another Sutton.

  102. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: Yeah, Im a fan.Ive watched his highlights and he skates relatively good for a guy that is 6 foot 6.Will challenge anybody, does not always win, but always willing to compete.If he can dangle, we might have another Sutton.

    Sutton is a good comparable.

    Betker might not be quite an ass… but Sutton (despite retiring recently) is really from a different era.

  103. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Marcus Oilerius: Age, speed, attitude.Bennett is a couple of months from the 2015 draft class.Draisaitl is 6 weeks from being in the 2013 class.

    The verbal meanwhile, reads almost like Perron vs Paajarvi.One guy plays big, and uses his talents to score, the other is big and uses his talents to try to score.

    57, 36-55-91, 1.60 P/G
    64, 38-67-105, 1.64 P/G

    So which one is it who is scoring & which one that is only trying to score? I’m confused.

    That said, it doesn’t much matter, I’ll take the guy who is two years younger ten times out of ten!

  104. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That said, it doesn’t much matter, I’ll take the guy who is two years younger ten times out of ten!

    Now we’re getting somewhere with the hyperbole! right on!

  105. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Now we’re getting somewhere with the hyperbole! right on!

    I don’t know how a 30-year old gets into the draft anyway. I say no to Copenhagen.

  106. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 57, 36-55-91, 1.60 P/G

    64, 38-67-105, 1.64 P/G

    So which one is it who is scoring & which one that is only trying to score? I’m confused.

    That said, it doesn’t much matter, I’ll take the guy who is two years younger ten times out of ten!

    Yeah, LT busted me on that one.

    I’m getting to the point where I get to in all draft debates. I realize I’m clueless, I haven’t seen much of one player, none of the other, and I might as well leave the decision to the scouts. As long as Katz doesn’t interfere again, we should be fine.

    I still like Bennett because of his age, like you, and the verbal on him, which is speed, effort, and 200 foot game.

  107. Philosophil says:

    frjohnk:
    I should also add that the 2014 draft has already been quite good for us.The 2nd round pick helped get us David Perron and the 3rd round picked got us Ben Scrivens.Add in the 3rd overall, and its another success story.

    Those are good points. It should be noted that the organization has added talent through end of season signings (NCAA, WHL Free agents). The bigger picture is MacT (and Bob Green alleluia) continues to stock the cupboards. I can only imagine the angst (read: competition) in the OKC locker room presently with approx. 30 bodies., it bodes well on several fronts IMO. Although its been noted on this blog that young talent producing at 16 or 17 is the true indicator of future success, how would Winquist, Holmberg, or Oesterle rank in this years draft? Apples and oranges maybe, but the point remains talent accumulates through several avenues and not just the draft.

    And finally, agree with Rom (if i may call you that Mr. Apotheosis) this years draft sounds shallow, so lets focus the picks for 2015 when potential payoff is greater.

    LT – i feel like a teenager catching hell from my Dad when you lay it out like that. Going to sulk in my room with a walkman and stare at my Bo Derek poster (in the bathing suit on the beach).

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