KINGS AT OILERS, G81, 13-14

Tonight, the Edmonton Oilers play the Los Angeles Kings. I believe this summer will see a lot of moves designed to “LA” the Oilers roster, and that means adding size to the skill already on the roster. If we can, for one moment, “borrow” some LA players, I think we might be able to form a future roster.

PROJECTED OILERS FORWARDS

  • Nuge-Hall-Eberle
  • Mike Richards-Perron-Dustin Brown/Justin Williams
  • Gordon-Dwight King-Hendricks
  • Arcobello-Gadzic-Trevor Lewis

I’ve added four players, your mileage may vary. I’ve also flushed Sam Gagner, Nail Yakupov, Ryan Smyth and all of the other fourth line players. I do believe we should begin to discuss the Oilers without these players, and probably someone like Jeff Petry leaving the blue, too. If you’re going to acquire a Mike Richards (we discussed Josh Bailey yesterday) or a Justin Williams, then someone is leaving town.

MacT’s job is a tough one. Acquiring Justin Williams is expensive, difficult and requires another team looking to turn over an important part of their roster. This does not happen every offseason, but there does seem to be more blood in the water than normal in many NHL cities.

By the way, we’ll know the Oilers are a true contender when that 3line above is the fourth line.

THE BLUE!

D ZONE START APR 10

 

Oscar Klefbom is getting thrown into the deep end as a flat out rookie, coach Dallas Eakins seems to be giving him softer opps but severe zone starts. I’m not absolutely certain what he’s doing—this is the opposite of Earl Weaver’s usage of starting pitchers in the bullpen until they’re ready. Klefbom’s Corsi is poor, but his Rel is surprisingly buoyant:

d corsi rel apr 10Just into the neg’s and that’s not bad when we take into account these are his first NHL games and he’s got the own zone ditch. Look at Marincin’s number!!! Wow. This graph also shows our man Petry remains a defenseman misunderstood, and Belov has either played in incredibly good luck or is actual factual good. The gap between the fanbase attacks on Petry and his actual value are reaching epic proportions:

hollywoodJeff Petry isn’t my son, but I do feel there’s a growing (as it did with Gilbert, and will one day with Justin Schultz and Dillon Simpson) sense that it’s time for the soft college man to leave town. I’m at a point where it might be wise for Edmonton to avoid drafting or signing these young players. They’re clearly good enough, but the fanbase is taking less and less time to turn on them.

The most recent goal that has everyone pissed involves some loose coverage from Petry, and honestly looks like hell as a GA. However, the support by Nuge and the giving up of the blueline so easily is also terrible:

petry screen shot 2

Here’s Johnson with the puck and we’re miles from danger, Nuge has the front door and Petry is preparing for the oncoming sortie. This exact play is repeated hundreds of times in a season, delaying entry (by Nuge) often results in a dump in, an offside call, or an upsetting in timing that makes possession difficult. 93 doesn’t come close to slowing things down, and now there’s some trouble.

petry screen shot 1

Split seconds later we have Nuge in chase mode, Petry in some danger because Johnson’s waggle has given him some impressive momentum and this is going to be close. If you’re a hockey fan, watching this play, it’s likely you’re thinking this could end up in a penalty by Edmonton.

petry screen shot 3Johnson makes his move, Petry whiffs, and that’s all she wrote. Soft coverage by Petry? You bet. However, this image—the one where Petry looks terrible—is far more powerful than the evidence given us by thousands of these sorties defended over the years. The facts are this: Jeff Petry is more capable at defending than the other Oilers defensemen, save Marincin whose body of evidence is reaching a point where we’ll have to discuss him as a top pairing option for next season.

The visual is so powerful, I suspect the Oilers lose Petry as they did Tom Gilbert. I don’t think Edmonton is a city that will support a Jeff Petry, and suspect player and team may part ways in summer. One hopes they get more than Nick Schultz for him, but when you’re sending out your best defenseman every few years (and Gilbert was at the time) it’s going to be very hard to make this thing go.

My hope is that MacT doesn’t listen to the crowd, that the crowd doesn’t turn this into something ugly. History suggests Jeff Petry, a useful defenseman, will spend the heart of his career in another NHL city. Edmonton will receive a lesser player, and be all the poorer for it.

Rinse.

Repeat.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

hennessy1A very busy Thursday, we’ll discuss Darnell Nurse in OKC and Dillon Simpson ending his college career on a national stage. 10 this morning, TSN 1260 and scheduled to appear:

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere icon. We’ll talk MacT’s summer, Hemsky, Canucks, Leafs. I think Dennis has a lot to say this week.
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN, Bleacher Report and Hockey Prospectus. We’ll talk about the Canucks and Leafs fall, and I’ll ask which teams are hoarding possession players.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. We’ll talk about the offseason, and what it might mean for the Oilers.
  • Brendan Porath, SB Nation. It’s the Masters! I think Tom Weiskopf wins.

10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Should be fun!

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330 Responses to "KINGS AT OILERS, G81, 13-14"

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  1. speeds says:

    I mentioned this on twitter last night, but Petry becomes a UFA after only one more year, in the summer of 2015. I had for some reason thought he was under team control for 2 years, but in fact, only 1 more.

    I think that might change the calculus this summer a bit, even if EDM wants to keep Petry, in that if he won’t sign long term, well what do you do? As @ThomsonCam mentioned to me, getting value back is important, but so is next year’s season – you’re not necessarily going to move Petry this summer even if he won’t sign long term, you might be better off to keep him until you see how the season goes, for 40-60 games, even if the value you receive for Petry at the deadline turns out to be a little bit less than you could have received for him at the draft. Additionally (Cam didn’t mention this, but it’s part of what I took out of his comments, whether he meant it or not), but it’s possible Petry wouldn’t want to sign long term this summer, but might at some point in the season if the team really turns it around on ice.

  2. Pajamah says:

    Here’s hoping Katz doesn’t go all Aquilini on the Oilers and start listening to fans.

    He hasn’t done it yet, so I doubt he’ll start pandering now. If MacT, Howson, and Lowe all like Petry, he’ll stay. I don’t see Gilbert ran out of town with pitchforks and torches as much as I saw Petry duplicating his skill set at a cheaper price.

    Let’s see the Oilers pick up a Subban, Niskinen, or something equally as impressive and just put Petry where he belongs, 3-4D

  3. Yeti says:

    “save Marincin whose body of evidence is reaching a point where we’ll have to discuss him as a top pairing option for next season”

    You’re right, of course. But those are words that will have the team on the golf course in mid-April next year, once again.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “By the way, we’ll know the Oilers are a true contender when that 3line above is the fourth line.”

    Stauffer has been pitching this all week and maybe last week too… if Gordon and Hendricks plus something else (likely a Gazdic-type) is your 4th line you are in business.

    Either way, if Stauffer is reflecting EDM thinking or pushing them to consider it, it’s a good thing to have that out there in the ether.

  5. Younger Oil says:

    I may be generalizing here, but it seems to me that the vast majority of actual dedicated, educated Oiler fans see Petry for the gift that he is. He’s a top 4 defenceman, and we need to add more of those, not subtract from what we have.

    It seems like the people who complain about Petry are more casual Oiler fans who just look at the highlights of games, and see Petry make a mistake on a goal against, and that’s their new thing to complain about. They say Petry is soft, while he leads the team in hits. They’ve locked in on a scapegoat, and there is nothing you can say to change their mind, despite the advanced statistics clearly showing how valuable Petry is to this team.

    If the fans drive Petry out of town, we have fully deserved all these years of wandering in the desert.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sidenote: I love that you are getting ripped by a guy named “Derek Hollywood”
    That’s either a hilarious real name, or a very bland, and also hilarious, pseudonym.

  7. Acumen says:

    Dallas Eakins already kind of addressed this concern with his “you trade the player and then immediately want him back,” did he not?

    That comment gave me hope (where I didn’t have much) that they wouldn’t listen to stupid with regards to Petry.

  8. Jordan says:

    Petry has looked exposed a lot this season. We know this is because the team is missing two first pairing D-men, but that doesn’t change the perception he’s not doing enough to fill that hole. In some ways, it’s even worse that Marincin is doing as well as he is, because it mates Petry look worse by comparison – “Marty’s just as good as Jeff, and has no experience! Jeff must be terrible!” #becauseoilerfans

    Part of me wants to think Petry will stay. I’d like to beleive its because MacT likes smart players, and Jeff is clearly that. He does a good job of reading & reacting, is durable, and can play a hard game for a puck mover. Anyone who’s watched this team knows that player to move is Justin Schultz, so I’m betting he’s the guy who’s headed out of town. I like to think the Petry/Schultz comparison is the opposite of the Tippett D-man example:
    One guy can make a pass out of his end 60 % of the time, and covers his assignment in the D zone 80% of the time. The other Guy can make that pass out of his 90% of the time, and covers his assignment in the D zone 30% of the time. We trade the last guy, right?

    Part of me would also really like to see the team add one or two top-pairing D and keep the rest. It would likely mean another season outside the second season, but I think it would also mean not taking a loss on one of our good young D. And to be fair, I think all of Schultz, Petry, Marincin & Klefbom fit that category on the Oil right now. I’d say we have a number of other prospects, but these 4 have shown enough in my eyes to be considered young NHLers.

    speeds,

    Speeds, what do you think an extension of someone like Petry would look like in both term and dollars?

  9. Ducey says:

    Petry has a couple of knocks on him.

    1. He doesn’t fight
    2. He doesn’t intimidate
    3. He is not vocal on the ice or with the media
    4. Despite being one of the older players on the team, he appears to have no interest in leading
    5. He is especially good at looking stunned, especially after making a bad play.

    I am a fan of his and the math, but the average fan in Edmonton wants to see their players skating through a wall to try to win. They want some demonstrable evidence that their players care and share their frustration.

    Petry has been more physical this year. If he can add a little more fire to his game, he will be fine here.

    Just another reason to bring in a different assistant coach to deal with the D.

  10. delooper says:

    I guess I don’t see the attack-on-Petry. The people that say bad things about him appear pretty dissmissable to me, like the angry blow-the-team-up callers after games.

  11. Lloyd B. says:

    How does the saying go around here. Get good players ..keep good players. Petry is a good player. Just playing a group ahead of himself at this time. How good would he look with a #1 or #2 playing beside him. I am in the camp that it is Shultz that goes as somebody will take a shot for his offense and give us a needed piece or two back. A third and a fourth line winger perhaps? Or packaged up for a 2C. Gags Shultz and a prospect should get something nice. Why can’t we have nice things?

  12. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ignoring the few folks who, after ‘careful deliberation’, say things on the interwebs like “your a moron” or “you’re brain is half-empty” (double rhetorical sic), are the fans in the seats booing Petry regularly? I haven’t heard it. That’s the only thing I’d worry about.

    That play was really just a microcosm of that game up to that point. The team was asleep. Hunter commented on it at the time and nailed it. No matter what system you run, a breakdown in execution often will lead to a glorious chance against. Seems like the Oilers are pressuring at the blue-line (good strategy, I think), but when the pressure is late or soft, your defenseman is exposed. It was a good play by Johnson too – it happens. If you jump on Petry after that, then you’re just waiting for a chance to do it. If people did that with Fraser, it would be never-ending, instead of occasional. If Petry wants to be a leader on the team, he’ll develop a thick skin to that stuff.

    The problem is not Petry, it’s that Petry is the best D-man on the Oilers. He shouldn’t be. The solution is not removing Petry, it’s adding X. Isn’t that obvious?

  13. Ducey says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: sidenote: I love that you are getting ripped by a guy named “Derek Hollywood”That’s either a hilarious real name, or a very bland, and also hilarious, pseudonym.

    Derek’s brain is fully empty.

  14. rich says:

    Great visuals on the 2nd goal from the other night. The thing everyone focuses on is Petry (Ole defense), but what caught my eye initially, and in the replay and in these shots was that Nuge is in position to help out and just really did nothing.

    This kind of stuff happens in a season – and has happened too much this season again. Whether you chalk it up to being a young team, fatigue (long season) or something else, I don’t have the answer.

    But the “fanbase” ripping on Petry bothers me just as much as I was bothered by the way Gilbert was run out of town – and Visnovsky. Am glad that Eakins recognizes this and said something last week about it because it needs to be said.

    I’m not saying Petry can’t improve, but right now he’s our best defenseman because the last GM sent out all of our NHL d-men. Sending him out now would be another serious mistake.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think we need to caution against all out fatalism on “this kind of player” making it in Oilerland.

    It’s a very real concern… for years the fanbase has hated them. They’d rather watch Fraser get walked as long as every now and again he gives the viewing audience some cathartic release in the form of growling.

    And, for years the mgt. has basically inhabited the same line of thought. MacT/Eakins have a mixed record here.

    But… they are playing Petry and Marincin a ton. And, Eakins just publicly praised Petry and warned against pushing him out of town. (He also scratched him for no good reason). And, they both seem to love Schultz beyond reason.

    The record is mixed, but I’m not sure that means fatally hopeless.

  16. Ducey says:

    Gilbert has a career high of 69 hits in a season. He has 59 this year.

    Petry is at 175 hits this season.

  17. delooper says:

    Ducey:
    Gilbert has a career high of 69 hits in a season.He has 59 this year.

    Petry is at 175 hits this season.

    How many of those 175 would you say were thunderous?

  18. Jordan says:

    delooper,

    Infinitely more than Tom Gilbert.

  19. Yeti says:

    delooper,

    Perhaps if we ask nicely Derek Hollywood can mix in some CGI effects to make Petry’s hits appear even more thunderous than the hammer of Thor itself? I’m talking the real blood and guts stuff that would endear even this ‘Son-of-LT’ to the average fan. It may well be the only way to save the franchise…

  20. Bank Shot says:

    If Oiler fans were capable of running players out of town then Horcoff would have been on a plane in 06-07. If Petry gets traded then it’s probably because the Oilers brain trust either soured on him or believes it will help them upgrade the roster.

    Before we anoint Marincin the one-eyed king we should consider that his corsi has been dropping pretty quickly over the last stretch of games. The kid had a corsi of 2 at about game 30 didn’t he? He’s since dropped to -5.5. Lets keep him well away from the top pairing next season.

    Justin Schultz for Brian Campbell offseason trade. Would you? I think I would. Campbell is miles ahead and will probably be the better defenseman for the next 4 years. What about Petry for Campbell? Marincin? Klefbom?

    The Oilers still have a shortage of guys who can create offence from the backend. Despite Petry being a puck mover, he’s not much for actually creating any goals for. If the Oilers are starting next year with all of Petry, Ference, Marinicin, and Klefbom on the roster then the other guy besides Schultz is going to have to be Keith Yandle-esque if we want to see any offence from the backend. Most(all?) good teams have that.

    I’m all for the Hendricks-Gordon-Gazdic fourth line. If the Oilers can even find two decent third line wingers and still play Gordon on the third line I’m a happy camper.

    Assuming the Oilers pick a center and shove him directly into the NHL (because that’s what they do) they will need a 4th line that can play because the second line will be a disaster defensively.

    Lots of work to be done. Upgrades needed to lines 2-3 and the blueline. Outside of the 1st overalls and Eberle is anyone really married to any of the other players on the roster? I don’t really see any bluechippers that can’t be parted with if the right deal comes along. Dangle everyone else to get the players needed to balance the roster. The Oilers need to start winning some games before the $6 million dollar window closes. They have already wasted this year and most likely next. There aren’t very many summers of easy decisions left.

  21. rich says:

    So what we’re saying is that Gilbert is a useless wuss because he doesn’t hit anyone.

    Good grief.

    Give us more Mark Fraser’s. They can’t make a pass to save their anatomy but they sure can hit!

  22. jake70 says:

    I am not sure even if true that it excuses Nuge, but was he at the end of a shift? Whenever I see an apparent lazy backcheck by a forward, I first wonder how gassed he is? But quand meme, Petry didn’t look NHLish on that play – wasn’t 99, 68, 66, 8, 87 comming in on him.

  23. Hammers says:

    LT . I hope your wrong on Petry especially if it’s a trade down . For me anybody can be traded so that’s not it and I suspect McT marches to his own drum so if Petry is traded it will be with another player for an UPGRADE on “D” . Glass is half full not empty .The fans forget one thing and that is who has Petry or Schultz for that matter had to mentor them ?? If anything they are now mentoring Marincin & Klefbom and that’s putting the cart before the horse . If we really think about how good teams bring there “D” along its totally opposite to what has happened here the last few years including Gilbert .

  24. Bank Shot says:

    I’m not seeing a giant hate on for Petry by the fans. Am I missing something?

    No hate threads dedicated to Petry on HFboards.

    I browsed through a 7 page thread titled “Players that gotta go” and Petry was only mentioned by 3-4 posters with more than that stepping up to defend him.

  25. thejonrmcleod says:

    jake70,

    The Oilers had scored a goal just seconds before that play. No one should have been tired.

  26. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    rich: Give us more Mark Fraser’s. They can’t make a pass to save their anatomy but they sure can hit!

    Good thing too. Because when you can’t pass to save your life odds are there will be plenty of puck carriers to hit before the assist is announced.

  27. GriffCity says:

    The fact that we ever considered Tom Gilbert a top d-man is another red flag waving on the good ship OIl. Gilbert was in many ways similar to Petry in that he was soft, weak defensively but with mild offensive upside. Gilbert did have a career high in pts with Edmonton in the 09 season with 45 pts. That is not when he was traded however, in ’10 he had 31 pts and in ’11 had 26 pts before being traded the following season whilst trending downward. Those are not #1 offensive d-man stats on any team.

    Gilbert then struggled mightily with the defensive game of the Minnesota Wild over the next season and a half. Which was no surprise to OIlers fans because we knew he sucked at defense.

    Now playing for the only other NHL team fighting for 29th place the Florida Panthers, who also gave Ryan Whitney a nice long look at the start of the year, Gilbert has 3 goals and 28 pts, not horrid but not great by any standards especially since he was making, what, 4.5 million in Edmonton?

    If Petry is in fact a similar player to Tom Gilbert, and his stats would indicate that he is ( 16 pts this season) then I do not see him ever maintaining a role as a top 4 pairing offensive d-man and would be glad to see him sent out of town, possibly as a package for a better player if one is available.

    I would like to see how Petry does in another NHL city, I am guessing not well. However I am disappointed that the Oilers will almost certainly be losing Taylor Fedun this summer and I have a feeling we will watch him go to another franchise and have success. Always liked his game, plays a very calm and structured style that i admire and my gut tells me he is going to do very well given the chance.

  28. carefreephil says:

    Please don’t flush Yakupov.

    I know it’s already been said but I want to add my voice to those that are supportive of letting this guy develop. He’s shown positive results except for this year. He’s still the same player who was electrifying in his rookie year. You don’t just flush all of your skill in one season. He needs to build confidence.

  29. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity,

    “I just remember a conversation I had with Paul Maurice. I was an assistant coach and we were talking about defensemen, it was about half way during the year and he said to me: “go, right now, I want to know how many hits Lidstrom has, right now. And I went and I looked and I thought it was wrong. It was like half-way during the year, the guy’s the best defenseman in the league, best defenseman. And, he had one hit. And, I was like “that can’t be right, he’s had to have run into someone else.”

    If you live on your gut, you’re gonna die on your gut.

  30. thejonrmcleod says:

    GriffCity,

    It might surprise some to learn that Fedun is older than Petry. I don’t get why so many Oiler fans are enamoured with Fedun. Is it because he’s from Edmonton? Or they feel sorry for him because of the injury?

  31. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    One measure of a balanced lineup is the top line not being sheltered in term of starts or opponents. Pisscutter usage leads to pisscutter playoff results when everything turns tough.

  32. Caramel Obvious says:

    Please god no Mike Richards. He’s mediocre and expensive.

    As for Justin Williams, you have to get him when he’s under appreciated. He’s good but not worth the price he’d cost. Get the next Justin Williams not the current one.

  33. su_dhillon says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think we need to caution against all out fatalism on “this kind of player” making it in Oilerland. It’s a very real concern… for years the fanbase has hated them. They’d rather watch Fraser get walked as long as every now and again he gives the viewing audience some cathartic release in the form of growling.And, for years the mgt. has basically inhabited the same line of thought. MacT/Eakins have a mixed record here.But… they are playing Petry and Marincin a ton. And, Eakins just publicly praised Petry and warned against pushing him out of town. (He also scratched him for no good reason). And, they both seem to love Schultz beyond reason.The record is mixed, but I’m not sure that means fatally hopeless.

    The usage of Petry and Marincin is an important note, regardless of the type of player Eakins may prefer he did quickly realize these 2 were his best options to play heavy minutes and against the best comp. Also while Mactavish may have spoken more highly of Klefbom, I also remember the coach saying something like you could make the case that Marincin has been their best Dman.

    To early to say for sure who the staff prefers out of the young guys but the minutes deployed certainly give credence to the idea that they have correctly slotted Petry and Marincin as the best of a bad bunch. That gives me some reason for optimism

  34. GriffCity says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    Comparing Petry to Lidstrom now?…Puts finger gun to head…Pulls metaphorical trigger

  35. GriffCity says:

    thejonrmcleod,

    I just like Fedun because the only times I have seen him play he has done very well. His AHL pedigree suggests he is a good player as well. He is undersized and not very physical either but he rarely makes mistakes, sees the ice well and sure, I guess the local advantage is a nice touch.

  36. pboy says:

    Ducey:
    Petry has a couple of knocks on him.

    1.He doesn’t fight
    2. He doesn’t intimidate
    3. He is not vocal on the ice or with the media
    4. Despite being one of the older players on the team, he appears to have no interest in leading
    5. He is especially good at looking stunned, especially after making a bad play.

    I am a fan of his and the math, but the average fan in Edmonton wants to see their players skating through a wall to try to win.They want some demonstrable evidence that their players care and share their frustration.

    Petry has been more physical this year.If he can add a little more fire to his game, he will be fine here.

    Just another reason to bring in a different assistant coach to deal with the D.

    If looking stunned is a problem than our GM and Head Coach should be watching their backs. That blank stare Eakins gives every time somethings goes wrong is only topped by that open mouth, stunned c#nt look MacT used to get behind the bench.

    Long season.

  37. su_dhillon says:

    GriffCity: НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴, Comparing Petry to Lidstrom now?…Puts finger gun to head…Pulls metaphorical trigger

    If thats what you got out of that quote. Good lord.

  38. Melman says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “By the way, we’ll know the Oilers are a true contender when that 3line above is the fourth line.”

    Stauffer has been pitching this all week and maybe last week too… if Gordon and Hendricks plus something else (likely a Gazdic-type) is your 4th line you are in business.

    Either way, if Stauffer is reflecting EDM thinking or pushing them to consider it, it’s a good thing to have that out there in the ether.

    “if Gordon and Hendricks plus something else (likely a Gazdic-type) is your 4th line you are in business” … and you have $5.5M tied up on your 4th line. By comparison BOS line of Campbell/Paille/Thornton = $4M; LA Clifford/Nolan/XX = $3.5.

    I don’t know what the “right” amount to pay your 4th line is, but Gordon is being paid like a 3rd line C and has to fill that slot. Hendricks/Arco/Smyth (with Gazdic/Pitlick as the 13th) could be a very effective 4th line and cost about $4 or a little less.

    Does fixing the 2C and putting 2 good wingers to play with Gordon allow you to get away with only adding 1 veteranD?

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Tom Gilbert was the best Guitar Hero player that every played for the Oilers.

  40. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ah yes the Tom Gilbert is a bad player story. It is not true but like so many other stories it taks on a life of its own. Gilbert plays 21:20 on the Panthers or 1st pairing minutes. He played 27:01 mins and 19:09 TOI in Minnesota and got bought out because Dany Heatley was injured and could not be bought out. Poor cap management but thats what happens when your owner signs Parise and Suter to $200m contracts. In Edmonton under Tom Renney ( likely the best Oiler coach since MAcT) he played 24:30 and 22:39 TOI

    So all in all everywhere he goes he plays: lots. 1st pairing minutes. He’d be our best defender today but that really is not too high a praise. Soft: yup? Play physical: nope. But a pretty decent real NHL D man and we have a team with very few of them

    Long winded way of saying if you are trying to damn Petry by saying he plays like Tom Gilbert you are not succeeding in making the argument you think you are

  41. El Duderino says:

    I don’t agree that fans and the MSM actually have that much of an influence in running players out of town. Does anyone have any math on this issue ?

  42. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    su_dhillon: If thats what you got out of that quote. Good lord.

    Spector probably got just as much out out it. They were discussing Petry and Eakins was comparing old school and new school approaches not individual players.

  43. GriffCity says:

    su_dhillon,

    Was that quote not comparing Lidstoms lack of physicality to that of Petry’s? Did i miss something? Please enlighten me

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    A couple years back, some posters on here were adamant that Tom Gilbert would be a Top 4 D on the Red Wings.

    Last year, he got cut by his hometown team. He then got picked up by a lousy team again.

    It’s quite possible if your team is finishing in the basement every season that they have quite a few lousy players?

    If Tom Gilbert ever plays a significant role on a contending team, I’ll eat a puck.

  45. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity:
    su_dhillon,

    Was that quote not comparing Lidstoms lack of physicality to that of Petry’s? Did i miss something? Please enlighten me

    If we’re going to be literal, even Spector understood that Eakins was not comparing Petry to Lidstrom in that quote. He was constrasting old school and new school thinking and his point was that his gut is old school but that he’s seeing and hearing a lot that make him question his gut.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Melman: “if Gordon and Hendricks plus something else (likely a Gazdic-type) is your 4th line you are in business” … and you have $5.5M tied up on your 4th line.By comparison BOS line of Campbell/Paille/Thornton = $4M; LA Clifford/Nolan/XX = $3.5.

    I don’t know what the “right” amount to pay your 4th line is, but Gordon is being paid like a 3rd line C and has to fill that slot.Hendricks/Arco/Smyth (with Gazdic/Pitlick as the 13th) could be a very effective 4th line and cost about $4 or a little less.

    Does fixing the 2C and putting 2 good wingers to play with Gordon allow you to get away with only adding 1 veteranD?

    You can put your value on the 3rd line.

    If you sign one of Kulemin/Moss/Winnik to 3x3M deal. Add Arco (600K) and say Pitlick/Lander or a guy like Raymond (say 2x2M) you’ve got a cheap 3rd line and your bottom 6 looks better.

  47. WeirsBeard says:

    What really concerns me is that there are people out there that don’t know LT’s son is MAP.

  48. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Off topic. Can anyone point me to the correlations between any of corsi, fenwick, shots, goals, wins and the following seasons wins? How big are the predictive gaps? Is their an optimal weighting?

  49. regwald says:

    WeirsBeard:
    What really concerns me is that there are people out there that don’t know LT’s son is MAP.

    clap clap clap. nicely played.

  50. Bank Shot says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: You can put your value on the 3rd line.

    If you sign one of Kulemin/Moss/Winnik to 3x3M deal. Add Arco (600K) and say Pitlick/Lander or a guy like Raymond (say 2x2M) you’ve got a cheap 3rd line and your bottom 6 looks better.

    Raymond sure, but if you have Lander/Pitlick on your third line then you actually have two 4th lines.

  51. cc says:

    Great pictures LT. Just one question, what was Hall doing on this play…. Playing his standard pedestrian spectator back-checking roll?

    Let’s be honest here. Nuge was perusing and there were three other players back. Johnson was flying, you can see by the picture Petry is looking at his logo not the puck. Johnson made a great move and Petry got beat. Happens every night in every game all season long. Great play by Johnson to his credit.

    Hemsky, among others does this every other night to d-men. Great players make great plays.

    If anything Hall should have applied some angling pressure forcing Johnson wider.

  52. GriffCity says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    I dont think Bobby Orr or Paul Coffey had many hits …Or for modern day comparison, I dont think Erik Karlsson has many hits either. It doesn’t come down to a single statistic like hitting that determines a players worth, those stats are biased at the best of times and subjective to who’s recording it.

    So what is the ” new school” way of thinking? That if you’re an offensive d-man you dont need to hit as much? Thats kind of true and has been that way for as long as i remember but Petry can’t be considered an offensive d-man like some are.

    Lidstrom may have”recorded” 1 hit at that point but how were his passes? How was his positioning? How was his offensive ability? etc. Old school or not those are the types of things that make a player. Hitting is a side note but when i look at Petry’s overall game i just don’t see it. I wish that I did, but I don’t.

  53. VanOil says:

    I hope the panic of me, my fellow fans and worst of all the MSM does not infect the Oilers management decisions this summer. This team is too far from balanced to compete for a cup with one Pronger class move. Being not a disgrace next year and challenging for a playoff spot is good enough for me.

    If you buy that this season was derailed by poor goal tending, the growing pains of a rookie Coach, a week defense and poor possession acumen in the top 6 (fixed by either size or defensive skill) then the fix is not that hard.

    The list above looks large and it is but much of it has been addressed or can be over time. First, the current goal tending platoon is likely to deliver adequate goal tending.

    Second, the coach will not be a rookie next year and might have some help added.

    Third, defensive help is on the way, we just have to wait and not shed competent defenders like Petry. Yes adding one veteran defender over the summer will help this transition but I sure hope he can skate and take/make a pass.

    Lastly this years draft pick provides an excellent opportunity at a second line center of the future. As long as Buffalo or Florida fall for Exblad or Bennett the amazing Reinhart or excellent fit Draistail will fall to us. This does not mean you have to run Gagner or even worse Yakupov out of town this summer. Yes I would trade Gagner for a younger possession type player like Brock Nelson but I would be just as happy keeping him and letting the draft pick spend another year developing in Jr and not being expected to be a 2nd line center in his first game in the league.

    So what I am saying is don’t panic, we are not wining the Cup until Nuge can grow a beard. Adding one vet defender who can make a pass and allowing time, draft picks and coaching consistency to fix the rest. Further tweaks can be made next draft deadline and summer.

    What I don’t understand is how Marincin is suddenly bad over the last 10 games? I have not ‘seen’ or ‘calculated’ this myself but Staples has: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/04/10/the-stock-of-klefbom-belov-up-but-marincin-gagner-lander-down/

  54. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: You can put your value on the 3rd line.

    If you sign one of Kulemin/Moss/Winnik to 3x3M deal. Add Arco (600K) and say Pitlick/Lander or a guy like Raymond (say 2x2M) you’ve got a cheap 3rd line and your bottom 6 looks better.

    Gordon and Hendricks are not players that are pushing to play 2nd line. 3rd line players on a good team should be doing that.

    But if we put it into a context of a bottom 6, Hendricks and Gordon can hold their own. What we need is a 4th line that can outplay most other teams 4th lines. Gazdic, Acton, Jones did not cut it. I’d love to see the stat on which zone the oilers 4th line left the ice for the next line. I bet the majority of faceoffs were in the D zone. It is a small problem in the overall picture, but I think the pieces for a 4th line are here to fix the problem. ( Pitlick, Horack, Lander, Arco) To top it off, these guys don’t cost much.

  55. Lois Lowe says:

    After careful deliberation I have decided to go with my gut.

    Therefore, I will having steak for lunch today.

  56. fifthcartel says:

    Melman: “if Gordon and Hendricks plus something else (likely a Gazdic-type) is your 4th line you are in business” … and you have $5.5M tied up on your 4th line.By comparison BOS line of Campbell/Paille/Thornton = $4M; LA Clifford/Nolan/XX = $3.5.

    I don’t know what the “right” amount to pay your 4th line is, but Gordon is being paid like a 3rd line C and has to fill that slot.Hendricks/Arco/Smyth (with Gazdic/Pitlick as the 13th) could be a very effective 4th line and cost about $4 or a little less.

    Does fixing the 2C and putting 2 good wingers to play with Gordon allow you to get away with only adding 1 veteranD?

    This is why trading for Hendricks and his contract was always pretty bad. There’s always tonnes of Hendricks you can sign/call up from the AHL without his cap hit and years left. I’m fine with Gordon cause it’s a little overpay but short enough in years that it shouldn’t really create any huge problems especially with Gagner/Hemsky/Dubnyk salaries all coming off this year. MacT should have tonnes of cap space but may have to manage his spending just a little in regards to paying middle sixers too much.

  57. Ducey says:

    GriffCity: НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴, I dont think Bobby Orr or Paul Coffey had many hits …Or for modern day comparison, I dont think Erik Karlsson has many hits either. It doesn’t come down to a single statistic like hitting that determines a players worth, those stats are biased at the best of times and subjective to who’s recording it. So what is the ” new school” way of thinking? That if you’re an offensive d-man you dont need to hit as much? Thats kind of true and has been that way for as long as i remember but Petry can’t be considered an offensive d-man like some are. Lidstrom may have”recorded” 1 hit at that point but how were his passes? How was his positioning? How was his offensive ability? etc. Old school or not those are the types of things that make a player. Hitting is a side note but when i look at Petry’s overall game i just don’t see it. I wish that I did, but I don’t.

    I suggest you read more and comment less.

    First, we don’t care what you see.

    Second, in judging Petry you need to look at more than boxcars and relying on your eyes.

    You need to look at zone starts, quality of competition, and quality of team mates.

    You need to remember that before this season Petry had a grand total of 156 games in the NHL. Thats 1.5 seasons. With 2 different head coaches, and a third this year.

    Petry was playing top pairing last year and this with little experience or support. This year they broke in a rookie, Marincin in that role. Thats crazy. It puts a whole different perspective on comparing his situation to other defensemen.

    If you don’t want to talk about this stuff and just want to talk about what you “see” go to the office watercooler or other sites. You will just get a rough time around here. Saw him good was dismissed in these parts long ago.

    If you are interested in learning (I think most of us are still learning) then try and put your thoughts in an analytical context that we can all examine and understand.

  58. gregsaint says:

    delooper: How many of those 175 would you say were thunderous?

    This is the best post I’ve seen pretty much ever.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bank Shot: Raymond sure, but if you have Lander/Pitlick on your third line then you actually have two 4th lines.

    I don’t think that is a fair assumption.

    One of those guys can float as a utility guy that ends up on the 3rd line that has a strong pairing without much problem.

    If you end up with this combination of players: Winnik, Arco, Lander, Gordon, Hendricks, Pitlick, Gazdic, Raymond, I think you can compose a pretty good bottom 6 with some reasonable spares (I wouldn’t have Gazdic, but let’s accept reality, he’ll be there).

  60. Bank Shot says:

    VanOil:
    What I don’t understand is how Marincin is suddenly bad over the last 10 games? I have not ‘seen’ or ‘calculated’ this myself but Staples has: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2014/04/10/the-stock-of-klefbom-belov-up-but-marincin-gagner-lander-down/

    Marincin’s CORSI has dropped significantly in the last 10-15 games.

  61. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    “absolutely, we need the toughness up front, we need it on our back end. I can go right over, two days later and go the other way and say, “We need puck moving guys, we just need to play fast and that’s it. …and that’s the honest to God’s truth, there’s one side of me that says: Yes, we need to old school it and we’ve got to have those guys. And, then there’s another side of me looking at how teams are, some other teams are building and… I’m not sure.”

    Probably not cool at the water cooler but not sure cause the data is telling me things my gut is missing is good place to start from. The golden means isn’t saw em good or analysis paralysis.

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: Gordon and Hendricks are not players that are pushing to play 2nd line.3rd line players on a good team should be doing that.

    But if we put it into a context of a bottom 6, Hendricks and Gordon can hold their own.What we need is a 4th line that can outplay most other teams 4th lines.Gazdic, Acton, Jones did not cut it.I’d love to see the stat on which zone the oilers 4th line left the ice for the next line. I bet the majority of faceoffs were in the D zone.It is a small problem in the overall picture, but I think the pieces for a 4th line are here to fix the problem.( Pitlick, Horack, Lander, Arco)To top it off, these guys don’t cost much.

    They don’t have to push the 2nd line, but they have to score more if they are going to be 3rd liners… unless you go full on old-school “crash and bang” 3rd line.

    The worry over a costly 4th line isn’t an issue if you can find value on the 3rd, as with Arco.

  63. Alpine says:

    Three different coaches have used Petry as one their go-to defensemen. I know that that doesn’t tell the whole story. I know the Oilers D depth is full of AHLers. I know NHL coaches aren’t geniuses. But there’s gotta be some sort of objective truth that he’s very much an above replacement level player, and the consensus seems to think so as well.

  64. VanOil says:

    Batty graphs Oilers shot differential over time the correlation with success is remarkable and sad. http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/4/10/5600006/shots-throughout-the-kevin-lowe-era

  65. su_dhillon says:

    GriffCity: su_dhillon, Was that quote not comparing Lidstoms lack of physicality to that of Petry’s? Did i miss something? Please enlighten me

    You’re missing a lot, I doubt I can help you. Here is a start, Read this article about Dave Tippett and evaluating defensemen. http://www.azcentral.com/sports/coyotes/articles/2012/04/06/20120406phoenix-coyotes-dave-tippett-perfect-fit.html

    This stuff seems most pertinent

    “Sometimes, when I watch games at home (as a fan), I’ll chuckle at some of the things being said about the players,” he said

    His approach changed in the mid-1990s, when he served as head coach and general manager in the IHL, when he had to justify his payroll decisions. He was searching for a new way to evaluate the game, to understand “exactly what was happening on the ice.”

    “I’ll give you an example,” he said. “We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can’t move the puck.

    “Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn’t defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he’s making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he’s only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.”

  66. Caramel Obvious says:

    Petry has the best fenwick % of the D, with 43% zone starts, playing the top competition.

    That is all you need to know. He’s the best defensemen the Oilers have. Don’t talk about what he isn’t. Talk about what he is.

    As for Hendricks, I didn’t know there was anyone who still thought that was a bad trade. He’s immediately made the team better. This is all that matters. What line he plays on is irrelelvant. Huis salary is irrelevant. Is he one of the 12 best forwards the Oilers have? The answer to this is obviously yes.

    Just like with Petry you can get rid of him when this stops being true.

  67. Bank Shot says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I don’t think that is a fair assumption.

    One of those guys can float as a utility guy that ends up on the 3rd line that has a strong pairing without much problem.

    If you end up with this combination of players: Winnik, Arco, Lander, Gordon, Hendricks, Pitlick, Gazdic, Raymond, I think you can compose a pretty good bottom 6 with some reasonable spares (I wouldn’t have Gazdic, but let’s accept reality, he’ll be there).

    I guess I’m just not seeing what it is about Lander or Pitlick that makes them a better option for next year than Ryan Smyth, or even Pinizzotto for that matter.

    Lander in particular has been gift wrapped plenty of ice time with top six forwards this season and has done zero with it. One assist that Eberle has to lunge at on his backhand to receive, and it probably shouldn;t have gone in the net.

    Lander’s corsi is alright I guess, but I think that’s more a result of his linemates then anything he has done.

    Winnik and Raymond sound good. Give me Ryan Smyth’s corpse over either Pitlick or Lander. Find next year’s Raymond on a cheap contract over those guys as well.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Ah yes the Tom Gilbert is abad playerstory. It is not true but like so many other stories it takson a life of its own. Gilbert plays 21:20 on the Panthers or 1st pairing minutes. He played 27:01 mins and 19:09 TOI in Minnesota and got bought out because Dany Heatley was injured and could not be bought out. Poor cap management but thats what happens when your owner signs Parise and Suter to $200m contracts. In Edmonton under Tom Renney ( likely the best Oiler coach since MAcT) he played 24:30 and 22:39TOI

    So all in all everywhere he goes he plays: lots. 1st pairing minutes.

    Well, everywhere except Minnesota where he fell down the depth chart faster than Sean Avery on sodium pentothal.

    FLA 2nd last in GA with 263 goals. Tom Gilbert one of their frequent flyers. What do we make of the fact that everywhere Tom Gilbert plays a lot, the opposition scores a lot of goals? Oh, that’s right, he’s very unlucky cos he always plays on bad teams. Or maybe, just maybe, bad teams are the only ones that want him?

    Being the best D on FLA is a bit like being the lead singer of Anvil imo.

  69. OilClog says:

    fifthcartel: This is why trading for Hendricks and his contract was always pretty bad. There’s always tonnes of Hendricks you can sign/call up from the AHL without his cap hit and years left. I’m fine with Gordon cause it’s a little overpay but short enough in years that it shouldn’t really create any huge problems especially with Gagner/Hemsky/Dubnyk salaries all coming off this year. MacT should have tonnes of cap space but may have to manage his spending just a little in regards to paying middle sixers too much.

    Is there really tons of Hendricks? If so where are ours? Please show me! Where have they been hiding? After careful deliberation, it seems Hendricks needs to lose some weight since there is tons of him, not good for the life longevity.

  70. OilClog says:

    Bag of Pucks: Well, everywhere except Minnesota where he fell down the depth chart faster than Sean Avery on sodium pentothal.

    FLA 2nd last in GA with 263 goals. Tom Gilbert one of their frequent flyers. What do we make of the fact that everywhere Tom Gilbert plays a lot, the opposition scores a lot of goals? Oh, that’s right, he’s very unlucky cos he always plays on bad teams. Or maybe, just maybe, bad teams are the only ones that want him?

    Being the best D on FLA is a bit like being the lead singer of Anvil imo.

    Or like being the best defender in Oiler silks…

  71. OilClog says:

    su_dhillon: You’re missing a lot, I doubt I can help you.Here is a start, Read this article about Dave Tippett and evaluating defensemen. http://www.azcentral.com/sports/coyotes/articles/2012/04/06/20120406phoenix-coyotes-dave-tippett-perfect-fit.html

    This stuff seems most pertinent

    “Sometimes, when I watch games at home (as a fan), I’ll chuckle at some of the things being said about the players,” he said


    His approach changed in the mid-1990s, when he served as head coach and general manager in the IHL, when he had to justify his payroll decisions. He was searching for a new way to evaluate the game, to understand “exactly what was happening on the ice.”

    “I’ll give you an example,” he said. “We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can’t move the puck.

    “Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn’t defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he’s making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he’s only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.”


    Can this quote and article be shot in the head already… Not that it isn’t correct, just how many times do we need to be reminded… WG brings it up enough for everyone, IMO.

  72. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bag of Pucks

    Gilbert is not the best D man on Florida and that is not even close.Campbell is Gilbert is, though, playing top pairing TOI. . Campbell is a very good top pairing D.

    mc79hockey@mc79hockey · 20h ago
    Campbell is 36th in the NHL in Corsi% for D on a terrible team, 21st in Corsi% Rel. He plays a ton.

    Quit moving the goal posts. The Oilers have 265 GA.

  73. GriffCity says:

    su_dhillon: You’re missing a lot, I doubt I can help you.Here is a start, Read this article about Dave Tippett and evaluating defensemen. http://www.azcentral.com/sports/coyotes/articles/2012/04/06/20120406phoenix-coyotes-dave-tippett-perfect-fit.html

    This stuff seems most pertinent

    “Sometimes, when I watch games at home (as a fan), I’ll chuckle at some of the things being said about the players,” he said


    His approach changed in the mid-1990s, when he served as head coach and general manager in the IHL, when he had to justify his payroll decisions. He was searching for a new way to evaluate the game, to understand “exactly what was happening on the ice.”

    “I’ll give you an example,” he said. “We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can’t move the puck.

    “Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn’t defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he’s making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he’s only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.”

    Sooo What you’re saying (Tippet) is that you cannot rely on certain stats to determine a players value as some stats are misleading. So it is better to see how a player performs on the ice in all situations and base you opinion on that? Seems logical, pretty sure that is exactly what im doing as well. Im not sure who would ever watch a player play completely in his own end and think he’s a good defenceman just like im not sure how you could ever watch a player make good passes out of his own zone and think he could not defend.

  74. OilClog says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I don’t think that is a fair assumption.

    One of those guys can float as a utility guy that ends up on the 3rd line that has a strong pairing without much problem.

    If you end up with this combination of players: Winnik, Arco, Lander, Gordon, Hendricks, Pitlick, Gazdic, Raymond, I think you can compose a pretty good bottom 6 with some reasonable spares (I wouldn’t have Gazdic, but let’s accept reality, he’ll be there).

    As long as Lander never sees a 2nd line scoring role again.

    Eakins explanation of his use of Lander is malarkey, he’s never in his life been projected to be a scoring forward in the NHL. If you truly want him to be a utility player Dallas… Along side Gordon is the only sensible choice!! He’s never going to be a 2nd line utility winger .. But a checking utility winger, possibly. So try him out where he should be! Not in a role he’s going to fail 100/100 times.

  75. Bag of Pucks says:

    OilClog: Or like being the best defender in Oiler silks…

    True dat.

    I can picture Ference this year, waking in a cold sweat like that ragged-ass renegade Col Kurtz, muttering “The Horror, The Horror,” over and over

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Bag of Pucks

    Gilbert is not the best D man on Florida and that isnot even close.Campbell isGilbert is, though, playing top pairing TOI. . Campbell is a very good top pairing D.

    mc79hockey@mc79hockey·20h ago
    Campbell is 36th in the NHL in Corsi% for D on a terrible team, 21st in Corsi% Rel. He plays a ton.

    Quit moving the goal posts. The Oilers have 265 GA.

    What goal posts am I moving exactly?

    The question remains? If he’s so good, why did he wash out of Minnesota so quickly and end up with the dregs again?

    And spare me the Heatley rationalizing. If Gilbert had played to the level of his contract, Minn would’ve found other players to cut.

  77. delooper says:

    GriffCity:
    Comparing Petry to Lidstrom now?…Puts finger gun to head…Pulls metaphorical trigger

    This looks like a cut-and-paste of the Art Howe character’s lines from Moneyball.

  78. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Here’s your dose of daily depression. Oilers cumulative shot differential in the Kevin Lowe era.

    http://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/imported_assets/2143807/WbRFnyR.jpg

    Straight from CnB.

    Should never have fired Renney.

  79. Kitchener says:

    Guaranteed 2 points for Florida tonight. They play the Leafs.

  80. stevezie says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Your argument amounts to, “Gilbert was playing above his skill level”, which I don’t think anyone argues with.

    Just because he’s not a great top pairing D doesn’t mean he’s not a good player. I wouldn’t want Boyd Gordon as my second line center, that doesn’t mean he’s not a solid NHLer.

  81. Gret99zky says:

    Do fans really have the ability to run players out of town?

    IIRC Tom Poti is the benchmark by which “ran-outs” are measured here.

    Who are the other Oilers that fans have sent packing?

  82. SK Oiler Fan says:

    If I see one more post mentioning a player getting run out of town by the fans I am going to blow up the internet.
    Stop it, this is not based on facts.

  83. stevezie says:

    Remember when the Oil were running Gilbert, Grebs, Viz and Souray as our top 4? Four puck movers, only one of whom was tough? Defence was not our problem that year (and one of them was Grebs!).

    We have first-hand evidence that this type of player can work really well on a second pairing.

  84. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Bohologo,

    MacT and Eakins are two guys who have had their teeth kicked in by reality in a daily basis so long that they can’t help but come around to the truth.

    Eakins sure loves him some Fraser and Acton, but there’s not enough talent to let these two grinding gumps disguise their ineffectiveness. On a different team, they could sneak by, the blame could be shifted elsewhere.

  85. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bag of Pucks: What goal posts am I moving exactly?

    The question remains? If he’s so good, why did he wash out of Minnesota so quickly and end up with the dregs again?

    And spare me the Heatley rationalizing. If Gilbert had played to the level of his contract, Minn would’ve found other players to cut.

    Moving goal posts: He plays on teams that gives up lots of goals? You mean like the Oilers

    FFS look at the Wild roster and tell me where you get the $4.5savings

    You are entitled to your own opinion, just not your own facts. Gilbert on Florida is 46th in the league for D men at 5 on 5 CF% and 38th in the league in CFrel %

    I can see where you think he is TERRIBLE. Ference is 42.7% or 134th and 121st in the league

  86. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: The question remains? If he’s so good, why did he wash out of Minnesota so quickly and end up with the dregs again?

    That was deconstructed a few times over the offseason when a number of Oil bloggers were pushing to sign Gilbert. You’ll have to do a bit of digging, but the short answer is: he was actually mid-pack in terms of most #fancystats markers with Minnesota, but his sv% was unbelievably bad. Like – worse than Dubnyk-early-this-season bad. Sh*t happens in a short season.

    I recall another article from a few years ago that used PDO as an offseason value-hunting tool for defensemen. It actually seemed to be an outstanding measure.

    Look for defensemen who’ve fallen out of favour because of a bad PDO and chances are you’ll get outstanding value.

    Sign a defenseman with a sudden surge in PDO and you get Mike Komisarek.

    Too bad we didn’t sign Gilby.

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    stevezie:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Your argument amounts to, “Gilbert was playing above his skill level”, which I don’t think anyone argues with.

    Just because he’s not a great top pairing D doesn’t mean he’s not a good player. I wouldn’t want Boyd Gordon as my second line center, that doesn’t mean he’s not a solid NHLer.

    I guess I’ll buy that he’s a ‘good’ player when I see him making meaningful contributions to a ‘good’ team.

    His 2nd last season with the Oilers, he was Top 5 in the league in giveaways, and his pt production that year did not warrant him being nearly that ‘high event’

    He recovered from horrible to mediocre in his final season with the Oil, was traded to Min and regressed to horrible again. Seemingly, he’s yo yo’d back to mediocre now with FLA. Nice career path.

    In saying they cut him for salary cap reasons, Fletcher was basically giving the ‘it’s not you, it’s me’ break up line. Which is a narrative you have to spin, cos the fans don’t find it nearly as palatable when you tell them, “Sorry, we traded our captain for him cos we honestly though he was worth $4 mil, and we wanted him to be good cos he’s from Minny, but we tried him everywhere and he really, really sucks.”

    Tom Gilbert finds employment in this league solely because bad teams can’t stock their D shelves entirely with AHL caliber defencemen. Seriously, Jovanoski played 35 games with the Panthers this year. Ed “I was around at the crucifixion” Jovanoski!

  88. G Money says:

    Bohologo,

    The guy behind that site (Nate Silver) has written a pretty interesting book called The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t. Decent read for those into the fancystats.

    (I will contrast that however, and say that Silver’s book is interesting, but this book is a must-read for the fancystats crowd: How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Businesshttp://www.amazon.ca/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1118539273/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1397157516&sr=8-1&keywords=how+to+measure+anything).

  89. TheOtherJohn says:

    BOP

    Wrong metric: Go look at a list of the D that lead the league in giveaways. It is a who’s who of excellent D men

    Astionishing thing is I am not a huge Gilbert fan but the suggestion that he is not a real solid top 4 D man is simply nonsense

  90. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money: That was deconstructed a few times over the offseason when a number of Oil bloggers were pushing to sign Gilbert.You’ll have to do a bit of digging, but the short answer is: he was actually mid-pack in terms of most #fancystats markers with Minnesota, but his sv% was unbelievably bad.Like – worse than Dubnyk-early-this-season bad.Sh*t happens in a short season.

    I recall another article from a few years ago that used PDO as an offseason value-hunting tool for defensemen.It actually seemed to be an outstanding measure.

    Look for defensemen who’ve fallen out of favour because of a bad PDO and chances are you’ll get outstanding value.

    Sign a defenseman with a sudden surge in PDO and you get Mike Komisarek.

    Too bad we didn’t sign Gilby.

    Respectfully, I’ve heard this argument before. My counter is the reason sv% is so bad when Gilbert is on the ice is directly related to the fact that he coughs up grenades in prime scoring position.

    Anyhoo, the last thing anyone needs to read on here is another Tom Gilbert good or bad debate, so I’ll respectfully agree to disagree and move on to greener fields.

  91. Marcus Oilerius says:

    PDO is a fundamentally dangerous stat, usable only in the broadest senses. I hate it. It can’t compensate for a defenceman who’s lost a step and continually gets blown by. It can’t compensate for injury. It can only show you long-term trends and blips on the radar.

    It’s only slightly less generic than a stat that says “over a 1000 year period, each team should win the Stanley Cup about 33 times”.

    PDO automatically assumes that any deviation from 1000 is going to round itself out. Maybe Tom Gilbert’s PDO last year was terrible because he was an idiot who played 3 rounds of golf in freezing rain and was sick and weak to begin the season and never caught up. Maybe Tom Gilbert’s PDO was bad because Tom Gilbert was bad.

    David Clarkon’s PDO this year is way better than last year. In fact, his PDO last year was worse than Gilbert’s. What does that tell us? Nothing. PDO is such a broad stat that requires such a huge sample size that its predictive value is almost zero.

    You know who’s REALLY due for a bounceback season, if you just trust PDO?

    Ryan Whitney. 925 PDO last season, career average somewhat above 1000

    Dangerous stat, that PDO.

  92. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bank Shot: I guess I’m just not seeing what it is about Lander or Pitlick that makes them a better option for next year than Ryan Smyth, or even Pinizzotto for that matter.

    Lander in particular has been gift wrapped plenty of ice time with top six forwards this season and has done zero with it. One assist that Eberle has to lunge at on his backhand to receive, and it probably shouldn;t have gone in the net.

    Lander’s corsi is alright I guess, but I think that’s more a result of his linemates then anything he has done.

    Winnik and Raymond sound good. Give me Ryan Smyth’s corpse over either Pitlick or Lander. Find next year’s Raymond on a cheap contract over those guys as well.

    I’d qualify lander and pitlick and have them camp it up. At best they fill a role on the bottom 6, reasonable they are up, down and sit; at worst they get claimed or languish in the AHL.

    Either way, the reason you keep them is they are young enough to help you long term and they remain cheap and under your control.

    don’t forget most regular rosters carry 7 D and 14 Fs. that’s two spare forwards. book one for a Gazdic type another for a multi-tool guy who can hopefully PK and play center. Lander and Pitlick fit the bill.

  93. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: My counter is the reason sv% is so bad when Gilbert is on the ice is directly

    Could be, and I respect the sentiment of gettin’ while the gettin’s good, but Gilby’s sv% were 91.6 in Edm, 87.3 in Minn, and 91.5 in Fla. “Bad luck” explains that pattern better than anything, because otherwise you’re trying to explain why two teams acknowledged as having bad defense (and generally worse goaltending than Min) can somehow ‘mask’ Gilbert’s shortcomings while Minnesota can’t.

    Fin.

  94. G Money says:

    Bohologo,

    Thanks! For many years I actually had a propeller beanie sitting on my office bookshelf beside a stuffed Dilbert – both giveaways from a programming conference in the 90s. The beanie sadly disappeared in one of my office moves, and my kids have adopted Dilbert.

    As to your second point – as we’ve seen, eloquent and thorough explanations often have no greater impact on those unwilling to listen and/or think than the basest of flamefests. Patience and perseverance is required above all I guess…

  95. G Money says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    What you’re saying is sort of true and sort of not true.

    PDO *is* a very broad based measure, so I agree, you would want at least half a seasons worth before you started drawing any conclusions at all.

    And you’re also correct in that you can’t state that PDO always reverts to 1.0 – teams with great goalies will bias their PDO positively, while a pylon of a defenseman will bias below 1.0. The 1 is just a rule of thumb. PDO is a combo of sv% and sh%, and those two are wildly variable numbers that over the long term strongly tend to revert to a baseline. That baseline will generally be close to 1.0 give or take. It’s the reversion that’s the key element.

    The point of my explanation was that if you see a PDO pattern for an individual (or a team) that looks like this:

    99, 101, 100, 98.5, 100.5, 96

    And if you don’t have an otherwise-rational explanation for that sudden dip e.g. goalie replaced by a sieve, best D partner traded away for magic beans, lost ankle tendon in ice rut, hit the age of 37, etc. than it is reasonable to assume bad luck played a large part, and that’s when you can start looking for value.

    Gilbert’s tale in Minny follows that pattern – his PDO has generally been in that 99ish range, a fair number for a guy playing on teams with decent at best goaltending and a generally poor D core (of which his role usually meant a 3D guy playing 1D), and then it suddenly dipped on a team with a much better defensive core.

    Not surprisingly (at least to me), his PDO has reverted back to that 99ish number this year, and he’s a positive Corsi positive Corsi Rel player. The Oilers sure couldn’t use someone like *that*…

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money: Could be, and I respect the sentiment of gettin’ while the gettin’s good, but Gilby’s sv% were 91.6 in Edm, 87.3 in Minn, and 91.5 in Fla.“Bad luck” explains that pattern better than anything, because otherwise you’re trying to explain why two teams acknowledged as having bad defense (and generally worse goaltending than Min) can somehow ‘mask’ Gilbert’s shortcomings while Minnesota can’t.

    Fin.

    Let’s assume for a second we’re talking any player and not just Tom Gilbert here. Fin ; )

    A difference in coaching philosophy could explain this as well. If a team demands more of a player, that can expose the player more as a result if they’re not up to the demands. Conversely, both FLA and EDM might be a little better at mitigating the negative impacts of bad D, because to be fair, they have to do it a lot more.

    So, whereas the demanding coach is saying ‘make a play’ either make the pass or carry it out, the sieve team is saying ‘sure, fire it up the wall if the forecheck is coming too hard, that’s the way we roll here.’ Now, suddenly Tom Gilbert is not putting his G in as precarious a position, but he’s not actually accomplishing a lot with any of his sorties under pressure either.’

    It’s a theory. Did I mention I hate Tom Gilbert? lol

  97. delooper says:

    Gret99zky:
    Do fans really have the ability to run players out of town?

    IIRC Tom Poti is the benchmark by which “ran-outs” are measured here.

    Who are the other Oilers that fans have sent packing?

    I thought the mainstream narrative at the time was that’s what happened to Jason Arnott.

  98. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity:

    Sooo What you’re saying (Tippet) is that you cannot rely on certain stats to determine a players value as some stats are misleading. So it is better to see how a player performs on the ice in all situations and base you opinion on that? Seems logical, pretty sure that is exactly what im doing as well.

    With some experience it’s easy to think we are accounting for everything. But what are we systematically missing? If we want to know the letter it’s NOT about watching vs counting. It’s about doing more of each and relating what we observe to the bottom line. Tippet’s describing getting past internalized narratives and limited observation and limited counting and systematically using eyes and numbers to go beyond what experience has taught us so far.

    Im not sure who would ever watch a player play completely in his own end and think he’s a good defenceman just like im not sure how you could ever watch a player make good passes out of his own zone and think he could not defend.

    And yet that’s exactly what Tippet is relating. And the profit from rethinking with closer looks and better counting. It’s all about confirmation bias. If we program ourselves to implictly count turnovers above all else, we can pass over the guy who make more turnovers because he moves the puck more and settle for the guy who does not move the puck well. Crazy. But that’s exactly what Tippet’s describing. So now he’s putting putting more emphasis on puck movement even for non-scoring D. We all count anyways and are swayed by counts. Advanced stats are about evaluating the things we can’t see or don’t look for or can’t remember.

  99. Derek says:

    Ducey: Derek’s brain is fully empty.

    Rude.

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    Off topic. Can anyone point me to the correlations between any of corsi, fenwick, shots, goals, wins and the following seasons wins? How big are the predictive gaps? Is their an optimal weighting?

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    This is kind of the go to for fenwick close and it has a nifty graphic as well, but it speaks to regular season fenwick close and post season success, rather than season over season.

    cc:
    Great pictures LT.Just one question, what was Hall doing on this play…. Playing his standard pedestrian spectator back-checking roll?

    Let’s be honest here.Nuge was perusing and there were three other players back.Johnson was flying, you can see by the picture Petry is looking at his logo not the puck.Johnson made a great move and Petry got beat.Happens every night in every game all season long.Great play by Johnson to his credit.

    Hemsky, among others does this every other night to d-men.Great players make great plays.

    If anything Hall should have applied some angling pressure forcing Johnson wider.

    This particular play happens on Eberles side of the ice and theres actually three whiffs on the play, the initial one by RNH, Petry getting walked, and then Eberle swinging his stick lackadaisically at Johnson as he cruises by.

    Marcus Oilerius:
    PDO is a fundamentally dangerous stat, usable only in the broadest senses.I hate it.It can’t compensate for a defenceman who’s lost a step and continually gets blown by.It can’t compensate for injury.It can only show you long-term trends and blips on the radar.

    It’s only slightly less generic than a stat that says “over a 1000 year period, each team should win the Stanley Cup about 33 times”.

    PDO automatically assumes that any deviation from 1000 is going to round itself out.Maybe Tom Gilbert’s PDO last year was terrible because he was an idiot who played 3 rounds of golf in freezing rain and was sick and weak to begin the season and never caught up.Maybe Tom Gilbert’s PDO was bad because Tom Gilbert was bad.

    David Clarkon’s PDO this year is way better than last year.In fact, his PDO last year was worse than Gilbert’s.What does that tell us?Nothing.PDO is such a broad stat that requires such a huge sample size that its predictive value is almost zero.

    You know who’s REALLY due for a bounceback season, if you just trust PDO?

    Ryan Whitney.925 PDO last season, career average somewhat above 1000

    Dangerous stat, that PDO.

    PDO is fine if you don’t look at it with blinders on, or like.. completely misunderstand on ice shooting percentage, personal shooting percentage and on ice save percentage.

  100. Caramel Obvious says:

    Bag of Pucks: Respectfully, I’ve heard this argument before. My counter is the reason sv% is so bad when Gilbert is on the ice is directly related to the fact that he coughs up grenades in prime scoring position.

    Anyhoo, the last thing anyone needs to read on here is another Tom Gilbert good or bad debate, so I’ll respectfully agree to disagree and move on to greener fields.

    Except this year, Gilbert’s on-ice save pct is 91.5% and his GF% is 49 on a terrible team. So this very year his PDO has regressed towards one, exactly as was predicted. It seems a strange time to take this stance.

    It may be the case that Gilbert allows more quality chances than other defensemen and hence his real value will always be less than his shot metric value. However, even if that is the case there is no way to reduce Gilbert’s value so much that he isn’t a valuable player.

    [Edit] I should add that Gilbert has played 85% of the time with Campbell. Campbell is very good and clearly better than Gilbert. One thing we don’t know very much about is how to disentangle D pairs from each other. So if there is an argument against Gilbert, that’s it.

  101. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Derek: This is kind of the go to for fenwick close and it has a nifty graphic as well, but it speaks to regular season fenwick close and post season success, rather than season over season.

    link?

  102. Derek says:

    Oops, I meant to insert this link in the last post

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    Which I edited in and is now awaiting moderation.

  103. book¡je says:

    Speaking of predictions, I am one of the people in the judgment research project which deals with the notion of the wisdom of crowds as predictors. It’s been pretty fun to be a participant in. YOu can read about it here.
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent

  104. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Derek,

    So if the same thing was done using CORSI or officials shots or goals or wins? Has anyone compared the predictive power? Or weighted multiple factors for better predictions? It’s a small data set to regress so there will be noise but it would be interesting to get some hints on optimal correlations even over that run.

  105. Derek says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    Derek,

    So if the same thing was done using CORSI or officials shots or wins? Has anyone compared the predictive power? Or weighted multiple factors for better predictions? It’s a small data set to regress so there will be noise but it would be interesting to get some hints on optimal correlations even over that run.

    If you go a bit further on that site:

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/7/17/4520794/fancy-stat-summer-school-fenwick

    HabsEyesOnThePrize:

    What does Fenwick tell us?

    Fenwick has a great correlation with scoring chances, meaning a team that dominates unblocked shots is usually generating more scoring chances, and has a much greater chance of scoring, and therefore winning, the game.

    The natural correlation of more shots meaning more chances to score a goal means winning the Fenwick battle carries with it predictive value. This predictive value on the team level can be shown in Chris Boyle’s piece earlier this year, where he showed that strong Fenwick teams are far more likely to make the playoffs than weak ones.

    Fenwick correlates with time of possession, but not as strongly as Corsi does. However Fenwick carries a much stronger correlation with future scoring, which is why I prefer it as a metric to Corsi. A player can be a strong Fenwick player and not as strong in Corsi, and still be more effective than a player who’s stronger from a Corsi standpoint. Case in point for this would be a player like Josh Gorges, who isn’t a fantastic time of possession player, but due to how many shots he blocks, his team ends up getting more scoring chances than his opponents, and his Fenwick numbers are better than his Corsi numbers. This is part of why we count both.

    It’s also important to note that the original article I quoted is using 5 on 5 fenwick close in an attempt to eliminate score effects. I imagine if the same study was tried using offical shots the results would be completely messed up due to these score effects.

    It seems that’s where a lot of the advanced stat vs saw him good people butt heads. Winning the corsi/fenwick battle and losing the game isn’t impressive at all, most teams do it. Its 5×5 close that really matters.

    Edit to add: The Chris Boyle article mentioned above is the original article I linked (why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick)

  106. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Respectfully, I’ve heard this argument before. My counter is the reason sv% is so bad when Gilbert is on the ice is directly related to the fact that he coughs up grenades in prime scoring position.

    Ok.
    For the 132423526th time.

    Can we all agree that Jonathan Toews is a very good player?

    He’s awesome and we all have him on our team?

    Ok.

    Here’s Toew’s On Ice 5v5 SV% for a 5 year stretch:

    SEASON On-Ice Sv%
    2009-2010 Season 894
    2010-2011 Season 915
    2011-2012 Season 894
    2012-2013 Season 934
    2013-2014 Season 911

    Do you really think that Toews had:
    1) Terrible defensively year
    2) Average defensively year
    3) Terrible defensively year
    4) Amazing defensively year
    5) Meh defensively year

    If you think that players affect ONSV% then you *must* think the above about Jon Toews.

    In 2011/12 Toews’ ONSV% ranks 350 out of 368 forwards who played 40 or more games.

    If you think that players directly affect thier ONSV% then you must state this:

    IN 2012/13 JONATHAN TOEWS WAS THE ONE OF THE WORST DEFENISVE FORWARDS IN THE NHL.

    Say it over and over and over again.

    If you mention that players affect ONSV% I will respond to your post with:

    YOU THINK THAT JONATHAN TOEWS WAS THE ONE OF THE WORST DEFENISVE FORWARDS IN THE NHL.

    Also:

    Eric T takes all the air out of the “PLAYERS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ONSV%” here: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/4/4487304/save-percentage-variability-regression-defense

    There is no correlation from year to year and therefore its non-repeatable and therefore its due entirely to luck.

    Unless of course you think that Toews is awful and serves up grenades on a regular basis.

  107. GriffCity says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    I agree with some of what you’re saying Nintendo. Just as I agree that some stats are important while other dont tell the real story all the time.

    I tell you what, Petry had a bad game last game, agreed? Why dont we put the calculators down and the plot charts etc and watch tonight’s game with some scrutiny and a critical eye. Clearly a top 3-4 NHL d-man cannot play poorly in back to back home games, let us see if Petry rebounds tonight with a good game or if he is exposed again.

    As always I hope he plays well and the OIlers win. Doubtful that either will happen tonight, let us watch and reconvene tomorrow to further discuss the wonderful d-man that is Jeff Petry.

  108. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity:
    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    I agree with some of what you’re saying Nintendo. Just as I agree that some stats are important while other dont tell the real story all the time.

    I tell you what, Petry had a bad game last game, agreed? Why dont we putthe calculators down and the plot charts etc and watch tonight’s game with some scrutiny and a critical eye. Clearly a top 3-4 NHL d-man cannot play poorly in back to back home games, let us see if Petry rebounds tonight with a good game or if he is exposed again.

    As always I hope he plays well and the OIlers win. Doubtful that either will happen tonight, let us watch and reconvene tomorrow to further discuss the wonderful d-man that is Jeff Petry.

    If you keep doing the same thing, you will get the same results. Confirmation bias is not your friend.

  109. rickithebear says:

    GriffCity: Clearly a top 3-4 NHL d-man cannot play poorly in back to back home games

    ???????????????????????

    Have you seen S. Weber play this year?

    You would not have made this satement if you had!

  110. bendelson says:

    book¡je: Speaking of predictions, I am one of the people in the judgment research project which deals with the notion of the wisdom of crowds as predictors. It’s been pretty fun to be a participant in. YOu can read about it here.http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent

    That’s a really interesting project.
    Perhaps the LT collective should combine our individual RE forecasts for the Oilers to test Galton’s Dead Ox lesson ourselves…

    Prediction: You have not yet reached superforecaster status.
    Note: Predication based solely on the simple assumption that you would have included such information in your post if it were true.

  111. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    Stauffer has been pitching this all week and maybe last week too… if Gordon and Hendricks plus something else (likely a Gazdic-type) is your 4th line you are in business.

    Gordon’s salary is on the high side for a 3rd liner. Hendricks has a 3rd liner salary. At their pay, if they are on the 4th line, it means that there are likely gaps created elsewhere.

    All the inexpensive young D may allow for that temporarily, but overpaying for roles is not a good long term strategy for contending.

    Hopefully, the cheap 3rd and 4th liners will arrive in time from the OKC pipeline in two years.

  112. Derek says:

    GriffCity:
    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    I tell you what, Petry had a bad game last game, agreed? Why dont we putthe calculators down and the plot charts etc and watch tonight’s game with some scrutiny and a critical eye. Clearly a top 3-4 NHL d-man cannot play poorly in back to back home games, let us see if Petry rebounds tonight with a good game or if he is exposed again.

    What if he’s playing injured, or his rookie partner has an off game? What if he’s playing minutes that are over his head against the top possession team in the conference? Did you never run into any of these things in your illustrious career as a high end hockey player?

    You’re convinced that hockey is such a dynamic, fluid game that numbers can’t possibly capture whats really happening on the ice, then you seek to condemn a player based on a 2 game sample size where you judge based on what you see with a critical eye. You, someone who has already stated they don’t like the player!

    It’s not bad enough that I have to watch Damien Cox and Mark Spector on TV, now they comment on blogs as well?

  113. G Money says:

    book¡je,

    Good judgement eh? Sounds interesting. Don’t let on that you’re an Oilers fan though – they may take away your participation rights!

    (I posted this before and it’s awaiting moderation and I have no idea why!)

  114. Bag of Pucks says:

    Caramel Obvious: Except this year, Gilbert’s on-ice save pct is 91.5% and his GF% is 49 on a terrible team.So this very year his PDO has regressed towards one, exactly as was predicted.It seems a strange time to take this stance.

    It may be the case that Gilbert allows more quality chances than other defensemen and hence his real value will always be less than his shot metric value.However, even if that is the case there is no way to reduce Gilbert’s value so much that he isn’t a valuable player.

    [Edit] I should add that Gilbert has played 85% of the time with Campbell.Campbell is very good and clearly better than Gilbert.One thing we don’t know very much about is how to disentangle D pairs from each other.So if there is an argument against Gilbert, that’s it.

    So Tom Gilbert is an effective defenseman if A) you’re pairing him with a superior partner B) asking him to do less OR C) both

    Sounds like the definition of faint praise?

    How we explain that in 2010-11, he was 5th worst in the league with 87 giveaways and nowhere near the league leaders in D pts (57th overall)? I’m not being a dick. I’m genuinely curious as to how we can rationalize coughing the puck up this much without generating more going the other way and say the player is ‘good’?

    I completely get the ‘high event’ argument. Don’t love that Taylor Hall is 3rd worst in the league this year with 98 GvA (especially when acknowledging that the league is notoriously inconsistent compiling this data), but can live with it given he’s tied for 8th in league scoring. Taylor will cut down on the bad cross ice passes over time, I’m sure of it.

    But this is not the issue with Gilbert (i.e. high risk for high reward). Tom Gilbert was nowhere near producing like a Karlsson or Doughty. He just turned the puck over as if he thought he was, often at the most inopportune times in his own end. Huge difference between a Doughty coughing the puck up trying to thread a seam pass in neutral ice vs Gibby lobbing a grenade in the slot to avoid the hit.

  115. Jordan says:

    WeirsBeard:
    What really concerns me is that there are people out there that don’t know LT’s son is MAP.

    regwald: clap clap clap. nicely played.

    So, how is it that Dennis gets on the radio all the time, but we never get to hear LT talk about what’s going on with MAP, and Missus Pouliot?

    Why is it that Tony Hand is the only ex-oiler who gets any love post-hockey career with the Oilers? Where’s the interview with Sugartits? Or Steve Kelly? Or Jason Soules?

    Seriously – all these wonderful people we never got to know about because their careers didn’t keep them with us.

    You can bring them back to us Lowetide! Let us meet them again.

    I mean, if Dennis King gets a weekly segment… there could be one for these kinds of players, right?

  116. godot10 says:

    Younger Oil:
    I may be generalizing here, but it seems to me that the vast majority of actual dedicated, educated Oiler fans see Petry for the gift that he is. He’s a top 4 defenceman, and we need to add more of those, not subtract from what we have.

    It seems like the people who complain about Petry are more casual Oiler fans who just look at the highlights of games, and see Petry make a mistake on a goal against, and that’s their new thing to complain about. They say Petry is soft, while he leads the team in hits. They’ve locked in on a scapegoat, and there is nothing you can say to change their mind, despite the advanced statistics clearly showing how valuable Petry is to this team.

    If the fans drive Petry out of town, we have fully deserved all these years of wandering in the desert.

    Eakins contributed to the “Petry is not good” narrative with his misguided Petry “reset” before Christmas.

    He walked his own player down the public opinion plank. Rookie coaching mistake, not understanding the city or the market he is coaching in. AHL”I’m a tough coach” disciplinary methods are dangerous at the NHL level in a rabid Canadian hockey market.

  117. Woodguy says:

    GriffCity,

    Clearly a top 3-4 NHL d-man cannot play poorly in back to back home games

    Clearly you are just making shit up.

  118. delooper says:

    Bag of Pucks: So Tom Gilbert is an effective defenseman if A) you’re pairing him with a superior partner B) asking him to do less OR C) both

    Sounds like the definition of faint praise?

    How we explain that in 2010-11, he was 5th worst in the league with 87 giveaways and nowhere near the league leaders in D pts (57th overall)? I’m not being a dick. I’m genuinely curious as to how we can rationalize coughing the puck up this much without generating more going the other way and say the player is ‘good’?

    Being a good player is quite different from “playing a role one is suited to”. That’s the difference. The discussion should be more about team balance than whether or not a player is “good” or not.

  119. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy

    There is no correlation from year to year and therefore its non-repeatable and therefore its due entirely to luck.

    Unless of course you think that Toews is awful and serves up grenades on a regular basis.

    Fully acknowledge the strength of the argument and will not attempt to correlate sv pct with Tom Gilbert anymore. I’m a bad bad man.

    Essentially then, all that advanced stats can tell us about Gilbert’s year/debacle in Minnesota is he was UNLUCKY. Well that’s helpful.

  120. Lowetide says:

    GriffCity:
    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    I agree with some of what you’re saying Nintendo. Just as I agree that some stats are important while other dont tell the real story all the time.

    I tell you what, Petry had a bad game last game, agreed? Why dont we putthe calculators down and the plot charts etc and watch tonight’s game with some scrutiny and a critical eye. Clearly a top 3-4 NHL d-man cannot play poorly in back to back home games, let us see if Petry rebounds tonight with a good game or if he is exposed again.

    As always I hope he plays well and the OIlers win. Doubtful that either will happen tonight, let us watch and reconvene tomorrow to further discuss the wonderful d-man that is Jeff Petry.

    This is the kind of argument that sounds reasonable but is in fact forcing the conversation into a very small sample size. If there’s anything we’ve learned along the way, it’s that sample size is a big damn problem.

    An entire season—which in fact we HAVE—is a much better indicator. Arguing Jeff Petry is a bad hockey player was tough BEFORE the season, but now that we have 82 games of track it is impossible.

  121. frjohnk says:

    Tonight will be an big test for Klefbom and Marincin going up against the big Kings forwards tonight. Marincin has had a bit of a lapse of late, but that is to be expected, the kid is already the best or 2nd best Dman on the team. I’ve liked Klefboms game. Great skater, I’m also surprised on how fast he can move for a big kid. He sure can close gaps and get into spaces quickly.

    They both need more work, but man those are two beauties that were not even on the opening day roster.

  122. GriffCity says:

    rickithebear,

    I might not have made this statement if I thought Petry was a true top 4 d-man either. It was more of a generalization that any respectable rearguard would want to rebound after a terrible outing the previous game.

    I hope he plays lights out and I have to eat crow, I honestly do.

  123. Bag of Pucks says:

    delooper: Being a good player is quite different from “playing a role one is suited to”.That’s the difference.The discussion should be more about team balance than whether or not a player is “good” or not.

    Fair enough, but if what we’re ultimately saying about Tom Gilbert is he can be serviceable 3 or 4D on a cellar dwellar (i.e. the role he is best suited for), then I submit to you that is not a ‘good’ player.

    And if the counter is he’s a legimate 2D on a cellar dwellar? My counter is, they gave up the 2nd most goals in the league with him in that role with a partner widely acknowledged here as a good player?

  124. Woodguy says:

    GriffCity,

    Why dont we put the calculators down and the plot charts etc and watch tonight’s game with some scrutiny and a critical eye

    A lot of the people who pay attention to shot differential stats are also the same people who take 4 hours to watch a game (like me) because they are constantly re-winding and watching how plays develop so they can see where the break down is.

    So in regards to your “calculators and plots charts” comment, clearly you are making shit up.

  125. godot10 says:

    jake70:
    I am not sure even if true that it excuses Nuge, but was he at the end of a shift?Whenever I see an apparent lazy backcheck by a forward, I first wonder how gassed he is?But quand meme, Petry didn’t look NHLish on that play – wasn’t99, 68, 66, 8, 87 comming in on him.

    Erik Johnson was drafted ahead of Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, Nik Backstrom and Phil Kessel. It wasn’t for his defensive abilities. It was because he was one of the most gifted 17-year old rush D of the previous decade.

    His development was impaired by a serious injury at 18.

  126. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Jordan: You can bring them back to us Lowetide! Let us meet them again.

    LT, you’re saving Stash for a playoff run, right? Due up any decade now. And cryonics won’t work cause he’d freeze the nitrogen.

  127. delooper says:

    Bag of Pucks: Fair enough, but if what we’re ultimately saying about Tom Gilbert is he can be serviceable 3 or 4D on a cellar dwellar (i.e. the role he is best suited for), then I submit to you that is not a ‘good’ player.

    And if the counter is he’s a legimate 2D on a cellar dwellar? My counter is, they gave up the 2nd most goals in the league with him in that role with a partner widely acknowledged here as a good player?

    I don’t think things are that clean. LA won the cup with Matt Greene. Greene isn’t a stellar defender, but on a well-structured team he can contribute to winning. I think people are saying the same thing about Gilbert. He looks bad to the eye because he’s being used outside his manufacturing tolerances.

    A player is not simply “good” if they can look good on any team. A player that looks good on any team, regardless of their utilization, one would typically call a star. There’s no way an NHL team can be competitive if their strategy is to only pursue players that are clearly recognised as star players. The salary cap won’t allow it.

  128. Bag of Pucks says:

    delooper: I don’t think things are that clean.LA won the cup with Matt Greene.Greene isn’t a stellar defender, but on a well-structured team he can contribute to winning.I think people are saying the same thing about Gilbert.He looks bad to the eye because he’s being used outside his manufacturing tolerances.

    A player is not simply “good” if they can look good on any team.A player that looks good on any team, regardless of their utilization, one would typically call a star.There’s no way an NHL team can be competitive if their strategy is to only pursue players that are clearly recognised as star players.The salary cap won’t allow it.

    Cool, I’m totally onboard with an assessment of Tom Gilbert that compares him to a player like Matt Greene. Green’s a fringe 6/7 guy on a good team, or likely a 3/4 on a bad team. In no way, is he a legitimate Top 2 option on any team (not if you want to win!). We’re treading on semantics now, as I see players like this as ‘serviceable’ not ‘good’ but your point is well made, a fit can be found for players like this to be effective with the right balance around them.

  129. GriffCity says:

    Derek,

    What if? We can’t rely on what if’s at this point. I just want to see how he plays tonight is that ok?

    All hockey players play with injuries and have teammates make mistakes and play against tougher competition, nothing new there. The best players help their teammates when they screw up and dont use playing against tougher competition as a reason to fail.

    I understand a players career cannot be summed up in a single game or two games, im not trying to do that. Simply, I want to analyze Petry’s game tonight without any advanced stats and just see if he has a good game or a bad game.

    “illustrious career” lol, did I say that? Has a nice ring to it though…

  130. godot10 says:

    carefreephil:
    Please don’t flush Yakupov.

    I know it’s already been said but I want to add my voice to those that are supportive of letting this guy develop. He’s shown positive results except for this year. He’s still the same player who was electrifying in his rookie year. You don’t just flush all of your skill in one season. He needs to build confidence.

    Did the Jets flush Burmistrov? You can’t force someone to sign a contract.

    It depends on whether Eakins has damaged the relationship with the player and MacT with his agent irreparably.

  131. G Money says:

    GriffCity would like us to put down our sliderules (ha! from my cold dead hands!!!!) and actually watch the game, and specifically Petry tonight.

    As an aside – most of the astute fancystats guys are the most knowledgeable and considered folks when it comes to the on-ice product too. Way *way* more knowledgeable about the actual game of hockey than the Dummyian Cox’s of the world.

    Ad hominem by those who can’t or won’t understand how numbers can deepen your understanding of the game over just watching the game alone. Presumably those are the folks who try and tune their cars by ear and measure their woodwork by eye.

    On the topic of ‘seeing Petry bad’, as НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ pointed out, if you set out to watch the game to prove that Petry is bad, you may not be surprised to find that you have in fact concluded that he is bad.

    However, Griff does actually have a point…

    As a member of the group that – having watched Petry and most Oilers games this year – believes that Petry is in fact the Oilers best D most nights, and that the ‘oh look he made mistake, he be bad’ crowd are victims of recency, confirmation, and cherry picking bias of the worst sort … I think we *should* take up the challenge.

    Let’s actually watch Petry and record all those things he does well. The proper positioning. The safe play when a safe play is warranted. A smart pass when a smart pass is warranted. The quick recovery. The effective cover.

    We know it’s not enough to point out his Corsi – it’s not a good number for defenders, and in any case the anti-stats Luddites thinks it’s a mysterious number unconnected to the game of hockey and won’t believe it no matter what it says.

    So let’s counter with what the real issue at heart here is: the good play. At the end of most nights, it is the contention of the Petry-boosters that Petry makes two dozen smart plays against the best the other guys have to offer. And his one mistake might end up in the net, but that’s what happens when you play against the best every night. “It’s just too bad that’s all the anti-stats crowd seems to be able to perceive” we say. So let’s gather the actual data.

    And if our stats show that Petry didn’t make very many good plays, but did make a boneheaded play or two that ended up in the net? Well, maybe we’ll need to reconsider our assessment of him. That’s what good stats force you to do – understand the game you just watched at a deeper level.

    ASIDE: I’ve been watching the Oilers since 1979. The same year the first spreadsheet was invented. Coincidence? I think not.

  132. sliderule says:

    SK Oiler Fan,

    Players are run out of Edmonton by presidents,coaches and assistant coaches.

    The reasons for them being run out of town are leaked to msm and the lemmings join in the cry.

    Off with their heads is the shout.

  133. GriffCity says:

    Woodguy,

    Then I wasn’t referring to you Woodguy. You weren’t attempting to ram “advanced stats” down my throat as a means of final player analysis.

    Im glad im not the only one wearing out the rewind button on my pvr to see exactly where and when things went wrong .

  134. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity: I just want to see how he plays tonight is that ok?

    Permission granted. Enjoy whatever it tells you.

  135. OilClog says:

    Jonathon “Grenade” Toews.

    Kinda suits him, he has a stare that shatters any enemies confidence.

    With Gretz “wanting” back into the game according to sportsnet, any chance he replaces Lowe? I can’t see him taking on Toronto.

  136. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    GriffCity: “advanced stats” down my throat as a means TOWARDS final player analysis.

    fixed. Damned cereal boxes.

  137. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Fully acknowledge the strength of the argument and will not attempt to correlate sv pct with Tom Gilbert anymore. I’m a bad bad man.

    Essentially then, all that advanced stats can tell us about Gilbert’s year/debacle in Minnesota is he was UNLUCKY. Well that’s helpful.

    But is it is helpful.

    It helps us focus on stuff he can control, like shot against rates.

    You need to temper it with Quality of Competition info because good players generate more shots and if you play against good players, your shots against can look worse than others.

    Funny enough, the best players (forwards) often also have higher career SH%, so ONSV% of players who play against the best is often worse than those who play middlling comp, and is usually certainly worse than those who play a lot against 4th liners.

    Every year a massive amount of players who have the best ONSV% are guys like Gazdic because they only play against guys who are more likely to break the puck in two than put it in the net.

    Here’s every Oiler forward this year sorted by 5v5 ONSV%:

    RYANJONES 950
    MATTHENDRICKS 946
    LUKEGAZDIC 938
    RYANSMYTH 912
    DAVIDPERRON 906
    BOYDGORDON 904
    JORDANEBERLE 903
    RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS 902
    TAYLORHALL 901
    SAMGAGNER 893
    NAILYAKUPOV 882

    Pretty standard stuff.

    So to evaluate Gilbert in his last MIN year, lets look at SA/60 and balance it with QC.

    MIN Dmen (min 30gp) SA/60 5v5:

    CLAYTONSTONER 26.2
    RYANSUTER 25.5
    JAREDSPURGEON 25.3
    JUSTINFALK 24.7
    JONASBRODIN 24
    TOMGILBERT 22.3

    He looks good here. Let’s look at QC:

    JONASBRODIN 0.397
    RYANSUTER 0.204
    CLAYTONSTONER -0.32
    JAREDSPURGEON -0.461
    TOMGILBERT -0.94
    JUSTINFALK -1.106

    Looks like he was playing 3rds. If you look at his partners he was playing 2nds with Stoner and 3rds with Falk. For this exercise, 3rds is ok to assume.

    Now lets look at ONSV% for the same group:

    JONASBRODIN 927
    CLAYTONSTONER 926
    RYANSUTER 925
    JAREDSPURGEON 919
    JUSTINFALK 888
    TOMGILBERT 877

    So, Gilbert had a very good SA/60 against middling to lower comp and a terrible ONSV%.

    On a scale of: Bah!———Meh———–OMGBBQ!!! I rate this season better than meh, but not an excellent year (without looking at corsi for this excercise because it would get too long)

    He was slated to make $4MM the next year and MIN needed the space with the contraction in the cap.

    He was the highest paid Dman behind Suter and wasn’t playing 2nds regularly.

    MIN reportedly planned on buying out Heater, but he was LTIR and they couldn’t.

    Gilbert was (correctly) thier best option for buyout, but he wasn’t BAH! awful and deserved a buyout.

    For reference here is MIN’s Dcorp salaries for this year:

    Suter, Ryan $7,538,462
    Spurgeon, Jared $2,666,667
    Ballard, Keith $1,500,000
    Stoner, Clayton $1,050,000
    Scandella, Marco $1,025,000
    Folin, Christian $925,000
    Brodin, Jonas $894,167
    Prosser, Nate $825,000
    Blum, Jonathon $650,000

    Gilbert had $4MM due this year.

    Pretty easy decision to buy him out.

  138. Woodguy says:

    GriffCity:
    Woodguy,

    Then I wasn’t referring to you Woodguy. You weren’t attempting to ram “advanced stats” down my throat as a means of final player analysis.

    Im glad im not the only one wearing out the rewind button on my pvr to see exactly where and when things went wrong .

    I’ve turned from comm enter into curmudgeon.

    Sorry if I offend.

    I’m doing that more often now.

  139. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    G Money: So let’s gather the actual data.

    Counting good and bad passes. In other words a Petry Dish experiment! Where’s Gene when you need him.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    GriffCity

    ASIDE: I’ve been watching the Oilers since 1979.The same year the first spreadsheet was invented.Coincidence?I think not.

    This makes perfect sense. I’ve been watching the Oil since 78 when the first spreadsheet had yet to be invented, which I why I don’t ‘fully’ buy in!

    Man, I miss the day’s when the team was so good, we didn’t have to find diversion in the minutiae.

    Watching Gretzky obliterate the NHL’s record book was more than enough to satisfy a stats obsession back then.

  141. Gret99zky says:

    delooper: I thought the mainstream narrative at the time was that’s what happened to Jason Arnott.

    Oh. I thought it was Spector who ran him out.

  142. G Money says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    Yes. Damn you! I was trying to work that seamlessly into my post the entire time and couldn’t!

  143. Lois Lowe says:

    GriffCity:
    rickithebear,

    I hope he plays lights out and I have to eat crow, I honestly do.

    The point many people are trying to make is that whatever Jeff Petry does tonight isn’t enough information, on its own, to make a judgement of his overall effectiveness. If he has 5 points tonight, no one on this board would say that it has really altered their view of the player. Just the same as one bad play in the last game hasn’t altered their thinking.

  144. Lowetide says:

    Jordan:
    So, how is it that Dennis gets on the radio all the time, but we never get to hear LT talk about what’s going on with MAP, and Missus Pouliot?

    Why is it that Tony Hand is the only ex-oiler who gets any love post-hockey career with the Oilers?Where’s the interview with Sugartits?Or Steve Kelly?Or Jason Soules?

    Seriously – all these wonderful people we never got to know about because their careers didn’t keep them with us.

    You can bring them back to us Lowetide!Let us meet them again.

    I mean, if Dennis King gets a weeklysegment… there could be one for these kinds of players, right?

    Poo sends cards, Schremp sends videos but I’m afraid to open them (I well remember the Captain America gonch) and Sebastian Bisaillon delivers my paper.

  145. sliderule says:

    OilClog,

    Gretzky would be like Lowe cubed.

  146. nycoil says:

    First expressed concern over a lack of rumblings about a Petry contract extension last summer. Hopefully recent glaring gaffes help to lower the price. Eakins gets it with Petry, by extension MacT probably does, too.
    The Oilers probably need to pay out $12m combined this summer on Niskanen and Markov and things look a lot rosier next year: Markov-Petry / Niskanen-Marincin / Ference-Schultz. Send Klef back to the AHL to play top pair primo minutes. Send Nurse back to dominate the OHL. Move Larsen permanently to a bottom 6 wing role as a capable rover and PP point man in a four forward set-up perhaps.
    Bring in a tweener vet who is capable for the #7 role who can sit in the press box for stretches without his development being at risk.

    Things look a whole lot better with two capable top 4 dmen added, even if there is no bonafide #1 (Markov no longer qualifies). Everyone young is challenged a bit to grow as players but has an older partner to mentor him.

    LT can get a Pouliot back by the Oil signing Benoit to play on the 3rd line as Dellow suggested. I know that MA > B but nonetheless…oh by the way, Dellow asks why BP isn’t valued more…I see him play on the Rangers a lot. Wait until the Oilers’ fans get a hold of him: no thunderous body checks, good stick-handling but no finish save for shot into the crest, annoying ozone penalties for stick infractions, and French. He does push the play in the right direction, though.

  147. Bag of Pucks says:

    Thanks WG,

    That was a very helpful post.

    I agree, Minn did pick the right buyout candidate, and Gilbert’s ‘better than meh’ for 4mil was likely a strong contributor in their decision.

    I think it is very helpful to consider Jeff Petry in relation to Tom Gilbert. He’s NOT a bad player, but it’s not MacT’s job to reach a simple A/B decision on a player. He more accurately has to forecast where a player like Petry would slot on a Cup winner and what the contractual value of that is.

    Given he plays the toughs in EDM currently, that could have the Petry camp’s salary demands ratcheted a little north of where they should be compared to what he’d command on a good team where he’s playing further down the depth chart (mins played is a huge negotiating chip for the agents).

    This is truly the double edged sword of being bad. Not only are we in desperate need of the actual ‘good’ players to move these foot soldiers down the depth chart, the foot soldiers expect to get paid like generals (witness for the prosecution – Gagner, Hemsky, Dubnyk) because of the roles this depth less team is forced to play them in.

  148. G Money says:

    nycoil: Things look a whole lot better with two capable top 4 dmen added

    I would be satisfied if that plus a capable bottom 6 winger was the only change that MacT made this summer.

    It’s not nearly enough in the big picture, but whoever gets drafted this year will be required to be a key contributor (2C or 1/2D) in the future, but that won’t be for quite a while anyway, so patience is required regardless.

    And every player next year – including Gagner – will look a whole lot better with a better D behind them, and that’s going to do wonders for trade value.

  149. sliderule says:

    I keep hearing the white noise about Petry not being a top two defender.

    I guess you can say that as the team is performing poorly and obviously he like all the players are part of the problem.

    I can say that he must be at least in OUR top two.

    The folks that say get rid of him want to have Weber or Suter .

    Get a grip the only thing the oilers can get without giving up Hall ,Eberle ,Nuge or Perron is another Ference .

    Why give up on the best that you have.

  150. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    Eakins contributed to the “Petry is not good” narrative with his misguided Petry “reset” before Christmas.

    Eakins also contributed to the “Petry is the best the Oilers have” narrative with his playing Petry against the best opposition all the time.

  151. sliderule says:

    G Money,

    I think they will all look better if the goalies can keep save percentage above .910

  152. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    ASIDE: I’ve been watching the Oilers since 1979. The same year the first spreadsheet was invented. Coincidence? I think not.

    Clearly you’re the problem.

  153. admiralmark says:

    At what point in time do the Oilers stop talking about following the Detroit model and change to actually following it. Petry for example is a solid 2nd pairing D man on any team. At times with a genuine 1st pair d man Petry could spot some time as a 1st pair D and likely not look out of place. So unless someone offers you a 2nd line C or a better D man then you keep him. Anton Lander for example… You keep him. Whats the rush in getting rid of him? He could make a very decent 4th line C next year. Maybe he starts in OKC again but he’s very serviceable as a call up. And mate just maybe in another season it clicks and he can fill the 4th or even 3rd Center position regularly. This is how Detroit does it. If the player bolts then the player bolts.. Stay the course!

    Also the other thing I don’t under is some 4-5 years ago we were given the game plan of scorched earth rebuild. And lots of pain was expected to follow as we grow the youth and prospects that were non-existent at the time. A lot of the commentary is that we continue to fill the pipeline and eventually one day NHL players will bubble up to the surface and because we had patience there should be wave after wave following in behind this initial success. So if we draft 3rd and Ekblad is gone… Then how does it make sense to not draft whatever of the top 3 Centers available is left? Oilers Currently have RNH, Gagner, Lander, Arcobello, and Gordon. NOTHING on the horizon to follow this already weak prospect pool. Why go through all this growing pain to say thats it. Stop the train now. Lets sell the future for the next 3 years of winning. Don’t get it. The only way this years 1st or next years 1st should be dealt is if a quality 2nd C or a genuine 1st Pair D is offered that is under 28 years old. Otherwise all this pain has been a waste of time.

  154. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lois Lowe: The point many people are trying to make is that whatever Jeff Petry does tonight isn’t enough information, on its own, to make a judgement of his overall effectiveness. If he has 5 points tonight, no one on this board would say that it has really altered their view of the player. Just the same as one bad play in the last game hasn’t altered their thinking.

    I can honestly say if Jeff Petry won me a mil in the Safeway Score and Win tonight, that would permanently alter my view of him in a more favourable light.

  155. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Thanks WG,

    That was a very helpful post.

    I agree, Minn did pick the right buyout candidate, and Gilbert’s ‘better than meh’ for 4mil was likely a strong contributor in their decision.

    I think it is very helpful to consider Jeff Petry in relation to Tom Gilbert. He’s NOT a bad player, but it’s not MacT’s job to reach a simple A/B decision on a player. He more accurately has to forecast where a player like Petry would slot on a Cup winner and what the contractual value of that is.

    Given he plays the toughs in EDM currently, that could have the Petry camp’s salary demands ratcheted a little north of where they should be compared to what he’d command on a good team where he’s playing further downthe depth chart (mins played is a huge negotiating chip for the agents).

    This is truly the double edged sword of being bad. Not only are we in desperate need of the actual ‘good’ players to move these foot soldiers down the depth chart, the foot soldiers expect to get paid like generals (witness for the prosecution – Gagner, Hemsky, Dubnyk) because of the roles this depth less team is forced to play them in.

    You are welcome.

    Thank you for responding reasonably to my post.

    You would have had every right to tell me to pound sand because I’m a bit of an asshole.

    Also,

    I don’t think that Petry can demand a salary that would make him not fit on the roster.

    Defence first D with only a smidge of offence are never paid well, especially when RFA.

    The key to team building is to bring in good players and push the worst ones out.

    With all the hubub around Petry a bunch of us in the pocket protector crowd are afraid they’ll push out their best Dman, which Petry is.

    Also,

    It is very important to remember this:

    Jeff Petry is the best Dman on the Oilers.

    That is an indictment of management, not an adoration of the player.

  156. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Guilty as charged. I think the Oilers should go back to using VisiCalc – might mean another 5 Stanley’s. I guaran-damn-tee it!

  157. stevezie says:

    Bag of Pucks: How we explain that in 2010-11, he was 5th worst in the league with 87 giveaways and nowhere near the league leaders in D pts (57th overall)? I’m not being a dick. I’m genuinely curious as to how we can rationalize coughing the puck up this much without generating more going the other way and say the player is ‘good’?

    I’m pretty curious about this myself.

    It’s pretty established that the main thing “giveaways” tell us is who has the puck the most, so shouldn’t giveaways correlate fairly strongly with minutes and points?

    Maybe Petry and Gilbert suffered here because the badness of the team led to them being unsupported more often than usual?

    We can all agree that Corey Perry is better at forcing turnovers than average, right? So if we grant that Gilbert and Petry are both second-pairing guys who had to face first-pairing competition, doesn’t it add up that they would make a disproportionate amount of give-aways? I would bet that on a standard second pair both men would give the puck away an average amount for their minutes/points.

    Maybe not though, I’m just guessing.

  158. G Money says:

    sliderule,

    That too. In fact (barring a miracle set of trades that somehow replaces Gagner with J. Staal, Belov with Josi, and Fraser with Please God Anyone), I think the only realistic chance the Oilers have of being in the playoffs next year is the Colorado plan – get outshot three out of every four nights and hope the goalies can come up with .930 goaltending all season long.

  159. thejonrmcleod says:

    Does anyone know anything about the Similarity Scores on Hockey Reference? On Josh Bailey’s page, Ryan Jones comes up as similar for both “Thru 5 Years” and “Career.”

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/bailejo01.html

  160. G Money says:

    stevezie,

    Yeah, I’d say you could fashion a reasonable explanation by combining the facts that a. if you have the puck more, you give up the puck more, b. against better players, you lose the puck more, and c. when the Oilers do have possession of the puck, they’ve done a marvelous job of giving it up before gaining the other teams zone, and if they do gain the other teams zone, giving it up before they get a chance (let alone a shot or a goal).

    All of which together would point to the fact that your best D would spend a ton of time on the ice (which Petry does), have a fairly high giveaway count (which he does), but an unreasonably low shot and point count against that mark.

    Maybe. Or I could just be rambling because I’m tired.

  161. sliderule says:

    stevezie,

    Just to show how bad a stat a giveaway is when the oilers signed Cam Barker I looked up his stats in Minny.

    He led the teams D in fewest giveaways.I thought that has to be a good thing.

    When he came to oilers I saw how he got that stat.

    He couldn’t skate with the puck he couldn’t pass the puck .He had learned that the puck was a foreign object and that it should be avoided.

    That’s why the players that have to handle the puck much like point guards in NBA have lots of turnovers.

  162. sliderule says:

    G Money,

    Because I agree with you I approve of this post.lol

  163. Woodguy says:

    Oilers are playing 8 players who spent significant time in the AHL tonight.

    LA is so deep that they can play Mike Richards as 4C and not miss a beat.

    Man.

  164. TheOtherJohn says:

    sliderule:
    stevezie,

    Just to show how bad a stat a giveaway is when the oilers signed Cam Barker I looked up his stats in Minny.

    He led the teams D in fewest giveaways.I thought that has to be a good thing.

    When he came to oilers I saw how he got that stat.

    He couldn’tskate with the puck he couldn’t pass the puck .He had learned that the puck was a foreign objectand that it should be avoided.

    That’s why the players that have to handlethe puck much like point guards in NBA have lots of turnovers.

    Top 3 D man on Oilers ***** Mark Spector

  165. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    stevezie,

    Yeah, I’d say you could fashion a reasonable explanation by combining the facts that a. if you have the puck more, you give up the puck more, b. against better players, you lose the puck more, and c. when the Oilers do have possession of the puck, they’ve done a marvelous job of giving it up before gaining the other teams zone, and if they do gain the other teams zone, giving it up before they get a chance (let alone a shot or a goal).

    All of which together would point to the fact that your best D would spend a ton of time on the ice (which Petry does), have a fairly high giveaway count (which he does), but an unreasonably low shot and point count against that mark.

    Maybe.Or I could just be rambling because I’m tired.

    And Occam’s Razor could apply as well (i.e. Tom Gilbert commits a lot of giveaways). Or at the very least, he did that season.

  166. Caramel Obvious says:

    I’m far and away the best defensemen on my beer league team. It”s not even close. I also make more mistakes with the puck than the other guys on the team, because the other guys aren’t good enough to make mistakes. When we play teams that are better than us I sometimes get exposed. Not because I’m not good enough but because my teammates aren’t.

    I don’t see what is so hard to understand about this. Anyone who has played the game should be able to recognize the phenomenon.

    What the numbers say vs. what the eyes say is a false narrative. Petry is the best defenseman on the Oilers and it isn’t close. You have to be blind not to see it.

    I’ll invert the narrative. If you disagree, you need to shake your head and watch the damn games. It’s as plain as day.

    I recognize that this isn’t going to reconcile the two solitudes. That’s because one of the solitudes isn’t simply irrational, they are incapable of sight. You can’t reason with a blind man who trusts his eyes.

  167. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    How we explain that in 2010-11, he was 5th worst in the league with 87 giveaways and nowhere near the league leaders in D pts (57th overall)? I’m not being a dick. I’m genuinely curious as to how we can rationalize coughing the puck up this much without generating more going the other way and say the player is ‘good’?

    He handled the puck the most on the team that finished 30th.

    He played the toughest competition.

    His most common D partner was Theo Peckham.

    His most common forward linemate was Cogliano.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=397&withagainst=true&season=2010-11&sit=5v5

  168. sliderule says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    So you are saying Petry is the worst defenceman on the oilers.

    Or wtf are you saying.

  169. Caramel Obvious says:

    godot10: Eakins contributed to the “Petry is not good” narrative with his misguided Petry “reset” before Christmas.

    He walked his own player down the public opinion plank.Rookie coaching mistake, not understanding the city or the market he is coaching in.AHL”I’m a tough coach” disciplinary methods are dangerous at the NHL level in a rabid Canadian hockey market.

    For someone with a well established history of petty comments without even a tangential connection to the world this might be the pettiest comment yet.

    Asinine is too kind a word. You should go to school and try and get an education. Hopefully, you’ll meet someone who will destroy your confidence in your intellect and judgement. Only on that basis do you have any hope of reconstructing yourself as a thinking human being.

    You need help. Truly.

  170. Bag of Pucks says:

    WG, I think what interesting about this Gilbert/giveaway argument is it reveals an inability or unwillingness with some to accept a stat at face value.

    Rather than the simple and obvious conclusion (Tom Gilbert gave the puck away a lot that year, in fact he rebounded the next year and didn’t give it away nearly as much whilst still playing with largely the same cast of clowns), we have to contextualize and rationalize and hypothesize all these possible explanations outside the obvious one, until we arrive at the desired conclusion (It’s not Tom Gilbert, it was everyone else!).

    Why are we so readily discounting the obvious explanation? Does that process not reveal some inherent bias?

    Too much certainty/reliance on the quantitative without some consideration of the qualitative is unbalanced assessment. It’s what led many to be convinced Dubnyk’s sv pct would return to the mean when the reality is the bottom was falling out. Many of us who ‘saw Dubnyk bad’ never trusted the ‘numbers’ on him and just like we know Col or TO’s shot differential play this season is an eventual recipe for disaster, our eyes helped us to arrive at the same assessment about Dubnyk (i.e. his sv pct was untenable longterm because his fundamentals were so unsound).

  171. Bank Shot says:

    sliderule:
    Get a grip the only thing the oilers can get without giving up Hall ,Eberle ,Nuge or Perron is another Ference.

    Why give up on the best that you have.

    Well they could give up a guy like Perron in order to get a top four defender and then theoretically all of the Oilers forwards will look a little better.

    You have to give to get.

    What would it take to get Roman Josi out of Nashville?

    Perron + Klefbom?

  172. nycoil says:

    To those saying no chance of playoffs next year, I respectfully disagree. I was one of the pessimists last offseason. Didn’t think MacT had done nearly enough to address the holes on D or in net. I think this summer could potentially fill those holes.

    Goalers are sorted. Solid tandem.
    Add two top 4 D via UFA overpay: Markov 3x $6m and Niskanen 4 x $5.5m.

    Draft Draisaitl and make him 4C

    Parlay Gagner and prospect or 2015 pick for a stronger 2-way 2C. Do I think Gagner has peaked? No. Could he become a 65pt C? Yes. But 7 years in we can project his upside. Blame Kassian or being rushed to the NHL or whatever but he isn’t going to be a defensively responsible 65pt centre. He may be a 40pt C with acceptable defensive play or a 70pt man in a soft minutes parade with two skilled wingers and sea-gulling and defensive fly-bys. If we can package him for an older player still with years left to play at this stage I think you do it. Gagner, Musil, 2015 1st and Ottawa’s 2015 3rd back for Spezza? Would love Couturier somehow but think that’s a pipe dream.

    Sign some undervalued vets with strong possession numbers to fill out the bottom six.
    Panacea line
    Spezza-Perron-Yak
    Gordon-Hendricks-Pouliot
    Draisaitl-Lander-Larsen/Gazdic

    Markov-Petry
    Niskanen-Marincin
    Ference-Schultz

    Fasth/Scrivens

    Remember the wild card is all we need. Can we knock off Phoenix or Dallas with that? I think so!

    Is dealing the ’15 pick a gamble? Yes…but if MacT knows he almost all but has locked up two legit dmen he can pull the trigger on the deal then.

    Feel free to change the names of targets as you see fit but as much as the holes are glaring there aren’t so many of them you can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel.

  173. TheOtherJohn says:

    Leading Giveaways in 2013

    Some decent defensemen with high giveaways: Karlsson, Subban, Doughty, Keith, Hjalmarsson. If only those guys had teammates that could take a pass Gee who knew?. I’d like to take a stat at face value wtthout rationalizing it bu if I didthat I would feeling bad for Chicago Keith, Seabrook (30th) and Hjalmarsson are playing 68 TOI a night for them and are coughing up pucks right, left and centre. Shitty team? or just shitty players?

    Not to pick on D men but #, 4, 6, 12 and 17 are all pretty decent forwards.

    Or maybe giveaways do not mean what you think they mean

    Giveaways
    Player Team GP Giveaways Giveaways Per Game Giveaways Per 60
    1 Erik KarlssonOTT
    79 109 1.38 3.05
    2 Niklas Hjalmarsson
    CHI
    80 99 1.24 3.49
    3 Taylor Hall
    EDM
    73 98 1.34 4.04
    4 Joe Thornton
    SJ
    80 95 1.19 3.75
    5 Jeff Petry
    EDM
    78 90 1.15 3.21
    6 Phil Kessel
    TOR
    80 88 1.10 3.20
    7 Alex Goligoski
    DAL
    79 86 1.09 2.68
    8 Jacob Trouba
    WPG
    63 85 1.35 3.57
    9 Drew Doughty
    LA
    78 82 1.05 2.45
    10 P.K. Subban
    MON
    80 82 1.02 2.50
    11 Andrei Markov
    MON
    79 82 1.04 2.47
    12 Ryan Getzlaf
    ANH
    76 76 1.00 2.82
    13 Justin Williams
    LA
    80 74 0.93 3.29
    14 Dustin Byfuglien
    WPG
    78 72 0.92 2.40
    15 Slava Voynov
    LA
    80 71 0.89 2.40
    16 Morgan Rielly
    TOR
    71 71 1.00 3.42
    17 Jordan Eberle
    EDM
    78 70 0.90 2.75
    18 Duncan Keith
    CHI
    79 70 0.89 2.16
    19 Jason Demers
    SJ
    73 69 0.95 2.91

  174. sliderule says:

    Bank Shot,

    You give up your highest scorer on a very low scoring team for Josi and Eureka Pitlick will get 20 goals.
    Wonderfull in wonderland

  175. stevezie says:

    I’ll agree with the critics that Petry’s success-to-failure ratio is not where it should be. If give-aways is a proxy for puck-handling, then a lot of give-aways is fine as long as it is in proportion to your minutes, and ideally, your points.

    You could argue Petry’s teammates screw him out of points, and his competition creates a few extra turnovers. In fact, I am arguing that.

    He’s not a top pairing D right now, but he’s still the best we’ve got. I don’t understand why the reaction to this is to blame Petry.

    ” Hopefully, you’ll meet someone who will destroy your confidence in your intellect and judgement.” Is the most hilarious blessing I’ve ever heard wished upon someone.

  176. Pouzar says:

    Man….I wish one day the Oilers get close to good enough to even approach singling out Petry as a problem.

    Now…let’s get back to trading that bum Eberle.

  177. Caramel Obvious says:

    Bank Shot: Well they could give up a guy like Perron in order to get a top four defender and then theoretically all of the Oilers forwards will look a little better.

    You have to give to get.

    What would it take to get Roman Josi out of Nashville?

    Perron + Klefbom?

    I’ve been touting trading for Josi but that is way too much. My idea was Gagner + Klefbom but honestly I think that price might be too high.

    If you trade for Josi it has to be built around Gagner not Perron. Gagner + Gernat + second round pick or something like that. Nashville might not bite but the Oilers can’t be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Their problem isn’t that the talent is in the wrong places. The problem is they don’t have enough talent.

    If you trade Perron it is a package to get a really big fish.

  178. Bank Shot says:

    sliderule:
    Bank Shot,

    You give up your highest scorer on a very low scoring teamfor Josi and Eureka Pitlick will get 20 goals.
    Wonderfull in wonderland

    No because Pitlick isn’t an NHLer. You sign a few cheaper vets that can pot 10, and can play defence. Then because you can play defense, your team has the puck more, and everyone benefits as a result.

    Perron is going to want to get paid in two seasons anyhow. So the Oilers could potentially have him walk as a free agent without even getting him into a playoff game. Josi is cost controlled for 6 years. The Oilers are really going to need that cap space to pay Yakupov and Draisatl in 3 seasons or less.

    Josi will help the offence as well as the defence, but that’s not all!

    The Oilers are only .2 goals/game away from being a 15/16th team on offence.
    They are like .8-.9 goals against away from being mid pack defensively.

    Fixing the defensive problems helps this team make gains much easier then trying to beef up the offence. Plus, its generally cheaper to buy defence. Moneypuck and such.

  179. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    WG, I think what interesting about this Gilbert/giveaway argument is it reveals an inability or unwillingness with some to accept a stat at face value.

    Rather than the simple and obvious conclusion (Tom Gilbert gave the puck away a lot that year, in fact he rebounded the next year and didn’t give it away nearly as much whilst still playing with largely the same cast of clowns), we have to contextualize and rationalize and hypothesize all these possible explanations outside the obvious one, until we arrive at the desired conclusion (It’s not Tom Gilbert, it was everyone else!).

    Why are we so readily discounting the obvious explanation? Does that process not reveal some inherent bias?

    Too much certainty/reliance on the quantitative without some consideration of the qualitative is unbalanced assessment. It’s what led many to be convinced Dubnyk’s sv pct would return to the mean when the reality is the bottom was falling out. Many of us who ‘saw Dubnyk bad’ never trusted the ‘numbers’ on him and just like we know Col or TO’s shot differential play this season is an eventual recipe for disaster, our eyes helped us to arrive at the same assessment about Dubnyk (i.e. his sv pct was untenable longterm because his fundamentals were so unsound).

    Those are fair questions.

    A quick look at the the top 10 give away leaders in the NHL each year tells you that the stat doesn’t pass the smell test:

    This year:

    Erik Karlsson
    Niklas Hjalmarsson
    Taylor Hall
    Joe Thornton
    Jeff Petry
    Phil Kessel
    Alex Goligoski
    Jacob Trouba
    Drew Doughty
    Andrei Markov

    Last year:

    Dion Phaneuf
    Dustin Byfuglien
    Andrei Markov
    Travis Hamonic
    Jeff Petry
    Phil Kessel
    John Tavares
    Dan Boyle
    Victor Hedman
    P.K. Subban

    Year before last:

    Ilya Kovalchuk
    Ryan Getzlaf
    Joe Thornton
    John Carlson
    Jeff Petry
    P.K. Subban
    Erik Karlsson
    Jason Spezza
    Phil Kessel
    Dion Phaneuf

    Its not a matter of ” Why are we so readily discounting the obvious explanation? Does that process not reveal some inherent bias?”, its a matter of:

    “If we revile a player for this stat, then we must revile the others who are like him because of this stat”

    That is why giveaways don’t pass the smell test.

    We (at least most who post here) don’t pick stats at random to like and dislike.

    There is 8+ years of work backing these up with correlations that show they matter, or don’t matter.

    You can’t default to “Gilbert looks terrible and the give away stat backs me up” because that stat doesn’t back you up with most others who lead the league in the category.

  180. G Money says:

    Nicely done today on the pre-game banter, all of you.

    Now, any predictions on which scenario will play out tonight?

    Will it be

    Surprisingly Valiant Effort Against a Bigger Better Team ™

    or

    SlumpBusters R Us ™?

  181. Lloyd B. says:

    admiralmark:
    At what point in time do the Oilers stop talking about following the Detroit model and change to actually following it. Petry for example is a solid 2nd pairing D man on any team. At times with a genuine 1st pair d man Petry could spot some time as a 1st pair D and likely not look out of place. So unless someone offers you a 2nd line C or a better D man then you keep him. Anton Lander for example… You keep him. Whats the rush in getting rid of him? He could make a very decent 4th line C next year. Maybe he starts in OKC again but he’s very serviceable as a call up. And mate just maybe in another season it clicks and he can fill the 4th or even 3rd Center position regularly. This is how Detroit does it. If the player bolts then the player bolts.. Stay the course!

    Also the other thing I don’t under is some 4-5 years ago we were given the game plan of scorched earth rebuild. And lots of pain was expected to follow as we grow the youth and prospects that were non-existent at the time. A lot of the commentary is that we continue to fill the pipeline and eventually one day NHL players will bubble up to the surface and because we had patience there should be wave after wave following in behind this initial success. So if we draft 3rd and Ekblad is gone… Then how does it make sense to not draft whatever of the top 3 Centers available is left? Oilers Currently have RNH, Gagner, Lander, Arcobello, and Gordon. NOTHING on the horizon to follow this already weak prospect pool. Why go through all this growing pain to say thats it. Stop the train now. Lets sell the future for the next 3 years of winning. Don’t get it. The only way this years 1st or next years 1st should be dealt is if a quality 2nd C or a genuine 1st Pair D is offered that is under 28 years old. Otherwise all this pain has been a waste of time.

    THIS….ALL…..DAY…..LONG

  182. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Nicely done today on the pre-game banter, all of you.

    Now, any predictions on which scenario will play out tonight?

    Will it be

    Surprisingly Valiant Effort Against a Bigger Better Team ™

    or

    SlumpBusters R Us ™?

    As per earlier in the thread:

    Oilers are playing 8 players who spent significant time in the AHL tonight.

    LA is so deep that they can play Mike Richards as 4C and not miss a beat.

    Man.

  183. Woodguy says:

    As per Joanne Ireland giving her opinion on Oiler FA’s and RFA’s:

    Mark Fraser, unrestricted free agent

    The Oilers dealt minor-league winger Cameron Abney, along with the rights to Teemu Hartikainen, to the Toronto Maple Leafs to acquire Fraser.

    He hasn’t been the physical presence he was supposed to be — something that plagued him in Toronto and something that stems back to a head injury he sustained in last year’s playoffs.

    Fraser’s skull was cracked in the series against the Bruins, plus he had knee issues. He was a healthy scratch for 11 games before the Leafs sent him to Edmonton. Don’t expect he’ll be re-signed.

    Linky: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Edmonton+Oilers+Ryan+Smyth+Justin/9725440/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers

  184. sliderule says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I don’t think that I want any of those giveaway bums on my team.

    Oh, maybe Doughty

  185. Pouzar says:

    Lloyd B.: THIS….ALL…..DAY…..LONG

    +2

  186. Ribs says:

    Woodguy,

    *fists in the air* LUUUUUCCCCCIIIIIIICCCCCC!!!!

  187. Mr DeBakey says:

    sliderule:
    TheOtherJohn,

    I don’t think that I want any of those giveaway bums on my team.

    Oh, maybe Doughty

    +2

  188. stevezie says:

    admiralmark,

    I don’t see the hurry to flush Lander. At worst he is a depth call-up. I think that is worth a 50 man spot.

  189. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Seems to me the rub with Petry (with respect to what MacT must do) is his willingness to contract his services for what the management would perceive his capabilities slotting into.

    I would expect his side to argue for moderate top pairing NHL pay given his TOI and responsibilities foisted on him over the past couple of seasons. I expect the Oilers to say those were indeed foisted on him because of circumstance and he struggled. He’ll be told other talent will be acquired or groomed to play those minutes go forward and Petry will need to prepare to slot in a rung lower (with its associated pay level) and then be prepared to compete with the talent coming up behind to maintain second pairing status. These realities will ring fence his contract value on a multi-year and if that middle ground can not been secured in negotiations I would expect Petry will experience immediate darkness as the trap door is yanked. I don’t think MacT has an appetite for a Gagner type contract situation here. That’s GM experience factoring in.

  190. Factotum says:

    An awful tempest mashed the air,
    The clouds were gaunt and few;
    A black, as of a spectre’s cloak,
    Hid heaven and earth from view.

    The creatures chuckled on the roofs
    And whistled in the air,
    And shook their fists and gnashed their teeth.
    And swung their frenzied hair.

  191. carefreephil says:

    godot10,

    I think Yakupov’s drop in production is not only MacT and Eakins’ fault but the player’s development path (not a straight line). If Yakupov does want to stay here then I think we should keep him and work to get him back to where he was and where he can be. If you’re suggesting that Yakupov wants to leave, then I guess we have no options but I haven’t heard or seen that reported recently.

  192. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Twice as fun to root against the Toronto Shot Quality tonight:

    Brandon Pirri (13) Wrist shot – ASST: Quinton Howden (2), Brian Campbell (29)

  193. RexLibris says:

    So I’m doing a little digging on the supporting numbers for an article on Evander Kane and decided to compare him to other LWs in the league who are amongst the top 30 in points. (Benn, Sharp, Hall, Marchand, Lucic, Marleau, Perron, Landeskog, and about ten others)

    Checked on CorsiRel, QualComp, QualTeam, Points/60 and things like that.

    Kane doesn’t seem too bad, but that Taylor Hall kid looks pretty darned good.

    Every once in awhile I check up on this or that player and then run these comparisons to see where they stand amongst the league, and it seems like I’m always finding more evidence that Hall is one hell of a nice player.

    Its almost like a little christmas every time I do it.

  194. Rondo says:

    What happens if Florida gets a loser point tonight and is tied with the Oilers.

    Who would be the 29th placed team if they both lost the remaining games ?

  195. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    Nice. Out of curiousity:
    - why Kane?
    - when and where will you cast this pearl before us?

  196. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    What happens if Florida gets a loser point tonight and is tied with the Oilers.

    Who would be the 29th placed team if they both lost the remaining games ?

    I think it’s ROW wins.

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