LOTTERY!

It’s lottery night! Scott Howson represents the Oilers, he’s up against other men in suits! The Oilers will end the night with either the first, third or fourth selection in the Entry Draft.

Work it!

  1. C Sam Reinhart, Kootenay Ice (WHL). I think he punched his ticket for #1 overall with a terrific finish to the regular season. In his final 20 games, Reinhart posted 12-28-40 boxcars, and then he started killing giant bears with a pocketknife in the playoffs.
  2. D Aaron Ekblad, Barrie Colts (OHL). He was rolling at a point per game pace until the final 20 games, but his overall talent level includes terrific defensive value. I’m not sure he’s going to improve a lot from this moment on, but Ekblad is clearly a top flight prospect.
  3. C Sam Bennett, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). This is a really good NHL prospect. Although he lacks size (6.00, 181), he plays with an edge and finished the season very well. In Bennett’s final 16 games, he scored 9-14-23 with Kingston. He possesses a wide range of skills.
  4. C Leon Draisaitl, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). In his final 21 regular season games, he went 19-26-45. He plays on a good not great club and his team needed outstanding performances just to get into the playoffs.
  5. L Nikolaj Ehlers, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL): Nikolaj Ehlers is a skilled winger with exceptional hands. He’s a fine passer and a pure goal scorer. Trending prospect, he could go anywhere from #3-#15.

If the Oilers don’t win the lottery tonight, Leon Draisaitl will be the pick. Book it.

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206 Responses to "LOTTERY!"

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  1. godot10 says:

    To repeat a thought from the last thread…

    I hope Todd Nelson wins the coaching “lottery” for the Nashville job. If Eakins fails, MacT won’t be able to go with another AHL coach without NHL head coaching experience, so I’m hoping and wishing for Todd.

    A Calder Cup, and that Nashville job, which is the situation I think is best suited for him.

  2. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Nooo! Not Howson! He lost the last time he was up there.

  3. thejonrmcleod says:

    I’ve watched Ehlers play more than 30 times this season. You didn’t mention his best asset: speed. He makes every other player in the Q look slow.

  4. thejonrmcleod says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Nooo!Not Howson!He lost the last time he was up there.

    Then maybe the hockey gords will look kindly on him.

  5. stevezie says:

    Marcus Oilerius: Nooo! Not Howson! He lost the last time he was up there.

    I hope we lose. Four first overall picks would be embarrassing.

    Even more embarrassing, I mean.

    Also, the top four look like a toss-up. The biggest advantage of winning the lottery will be trading the pick.

  6. prairieschooner says:

    If we win this tonight we will face months of being reminded by everyone of picking 1st yet again there is just too much cringe to absorb

  7. blainer says:

    I hope we win Another 1st overall.. I think we paid our dues for it this year. Draft Reinhart. another skilled center for years to come. Ekblad would be good too. Nice blast from the point to fix the power play. Although according to all the different draft rankings no matter where we pick there will be a draft ranking saying our pick was a number 1 pick anyway. In terms of order The first four picks could probably be different on all 30 teams. I do believe Draisaitl goes to the oilers unless they pick first.

  8. matt says:

    stevezie,

    The incremental pain from the embarassment of 3 wins vs. 4 is outweighed by the skill difference between the first and fourth picks.

  9. delooper says:

    matt:
    The incremental pain from the embarassment of 3 wins vs. 4 is outweighed by the skill difference between the first and fourth picks.

    Could you let us know what the skill difference is? Nobody has mentioned much… so far.

    Wow, the lottery draft. Somehow I thought we were still around game 40 of the season. Time flies so fast when you don’t watch the Oilers play hockey.

  10. stevezie says:

    matt: The incremental pain from the embarassment of 3 wins vs. 4 is outweighed by the skill difference between the first and fourth picks.

    I agree with you that this could be the case- I would suffer great shame for the McDavid kid- but I don’t see it this year.

    Bennet has the least impressive stats, but the latest birthday. I just… I just don’t see a big difference.

  11. icecastles says:

    I’m hoping we lose simply because of the enabling effect the lottery has on losing teams, and the bizarre “cheer against your team” effect it has on some fans. “win by losing” is only slightly less insane to me than the notion of “addition by subtraction.”

    Plus, I think if the ship is going to be turned sooner rather than later, I think we need to start adding players who can contribute now rather than stretching the cluster out to infinity. Its something of a toss-up between the top four, but fear that if the Oilers win the first overall pick, the odds of trading that away are greatly reduced. Of course if they are intent on trading the pick, then I’m all for a win and the biggest possible return.

    matt: The incremental pain from the embarassment of 3 wins vs. 4 is outweighed by the skill difference between the first and fourth picks.

    Some years, sure. I don’t see that this year at all.

  12. delooper says:

    icecastles:
    “win by losing” is only slightly less insane to me than the notion of “addition by subtraction.”

    Are you suggesting we should make negative numbers illegal?

  13. russ99 says:

    Yeah! Third… Whew.

    Florida won the lottery.

  14. icecastles says:

    delooper: Are you suggesting we should make negative numbers illegal?

    Being Oilers fans, the only numbers we should allow are irrational numbers.

  15. Zangetsu says:

    So theres’s a lesson learnt twice. Patrick kane vs gagner last time.

  16. Gret99zky says:

    lame

  17. russ99 says:

    So.. Here’s my top 3:

    1. Fla – Ekblad
    2. Buf – Reinhart
    3. Edm – Draisaitl

  18. Rebilled says:

    So, we probably would have got first if we lost that one game? Classic. Columbus and Buffalo must love the draft lottery.

  19. icecastles says:

    Rebilled: So, we probably would have got first if we lost that one game? Classic. Columbus and Buffalo must love the draft lottery.

    Rondo: Beating Vancouver was costly perhaps

    This isn’t exactly how it works.

  20. Rondo says:

    Beating Vancouver was costly perhaps

  21. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Oh man I was shitting bricks at the thought of Calgary with one of the top 3 prospects.

    Pretty sure that Reinhart-Bennett or Reinhart-Draisaitl will be 1-2.

  22. ohhell says:

    It would not surprise me to see Ekblad and Draisaitl both available at #3.

  23. Henry says:

    DeadmanWaking:
    I feeling sick to my stomach when they announced Toronto.Our galaxy has a giant black hole at the center, that’s enough.The center of universe doesn’t need a matching black ball.Whew.

    Calgary was also a tense moment.It felt like a win to hold at the number three spot.I just don’t think there’s a huge difference at the top of this cluster.We’re going to get a good one.

    My five year old was cheering wildly when Daly passed Toronto and Vancouver by. He has been trained well.

  24. DeadmanWaking says:

    I feeling sick to my stomach when they announced Toronto. Our galaxy has a giant black hole at the center, that’s enough. The center of universe doesn’t need a matching black ball. Whew.

    Calgary was also a tense moment. It felt like a win to hold at the number three spot. I just don’t think there’s a huge difference at the top of this cluster. We’re going to get a good one.

  25. Henry says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    And he developed a flux capacitor to slow down time. Between poops.

  26. fifthcartel says:

    Florida should been a good bet to win when they lost it last year. Happy they will (hopefully) have to take a center. Edmonton, that is.

  27. icecastles says:

    Just thinking about how completely it must suck to be a Buffalo fan right now…

  28. russ99 says:

    Rebilled,

    Yup…

    Oh well, it’s a crapshoot anyway. We’ll get a good player.

  29. delooper says:

    Henry, apparently you can see 1 minute into the future. You’ve got a career at Goldman Sachs whenever you want.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Jesus H. Christ, Mary mother of God….

    Third overall pick!!!????

    How can this franchise lose????

  31. Zangetsu says:

    Rondo:
    Buttons is right

    You lost credibility with that one.

  32. delooper says:

    icecastles:
    Just thinking about how completely it must suck to be a Buffalo fan right now…

    That town has taken more blows to the guts than most I can think of. I don’t think this will pass the minimum pain threshold for most residents to register it.

  33. Rondo says:

    I think Buttons is right with his mock draft of the top 5 teams

  34. hunter1909 says:

    I’m having another whisky.

  35. Rebilled says:

    icecastles,

    Probably i sez. 2nd did get first pick. Does the team name change the odds?

  36. hunter1909 says:

    PS: I have to…only 1 can left in the fridge lol…lots of whisky thank fuck for contingency planning learned at highest levels.

  37. hunter1909 says:

    Okay who are they going to pick? Also, are Florida/Sabres guaranteed to pick some guaranteed top two, which suddenly appears unlikely?

  38. Rebilled says:

    russ99,

    I don’t mind, we need a centre. Do we give Calgary and Burke Bennett though? Jesus.

  39. hunter1909 says:

    delooper: That town has taken more blows to the guts than most I can think of.I don’t think this will pass the minimum pain threshold for most residents to register it.

    You haven’t been there. I have, and they can leave it until Sitting Bull’s ghost dance goes viral.

  40. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Rondo,

    Yeah… I forgot about Florida getting Barkov last year. Huberdeau-Barkov down the middle and now they’ll pick a D-man.

    That leaves us with one of the centres. Probably what was going to happen anyway.

  41. hunter1909 says:

    Why the fuck did they ever call it Buffalo??? Due to the vast herds, lol.

  42. hunter1909 says:

    Let’s face it. Prospects wise, Oilers are like a 16 year old virgin caliph in a 40 virgin harem.

  43. Henry says:

    hunter1909:
    I’m having another whisky.

    Very good idea. Highland Park for Leon.

  44. russ99 says:

    Lowetide:
    My instant mock if you’re interested

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2027823-2014-nhl-mock-draft-post-lottery-first-round-projections

    Quality mock, I didn’t know you were on Bleacher Report… They’re my go to ipad sports app.

    I didn’t realize how weak the D crop is this year. Any trade down candidates look particularly appealing?

    IMO if Draisaitl is there at 3, he’s gotta be the pick

  45. delooper says:

    hunter1909: You haven’t been there. I have, and they can leave it until Sitting Bull’s ghost dance goes viral.

    That made zero sense to me. Not sure if it was intended to. But I lived in Rochester for two years. Been to Buffalo many times. Met a lot of Oilers fans in Buffalo. That was odd at the time, I thought.

  46. theres oil in virginia says:
  47. hunter1909 says:

    Henry: Very good idea.Highland Park for Leon.

    Believe it or not I’ve got a 6 bottle box full in one of my cupboards. Saving it for the apocalypse, lol.

    Great whisky. Pirate stuff. Only 10 year old, forget the others.

  48. Numenius says:

    Rondo:
    I think Buttons is right with his mock draftof the top 5 teams

    What was Button’s list? I missed that part of the broadcast.

  49. hunter1909 says:

    Having a shitload of whisky and little to no beer is a positive.

  50. Chris says:

    Well there is a shot that Ekblad is there at #3. Jones was not supposed to have lasted as long as he did on the board last year. There can be a tendency for bad teams to draft forwards because they offer more immediate help. Defensemen usually take longer.

  51. blainer says:

    russ99:
    So.. Here’s my top 3:

    1. Fla – Ekblad
    2. Buf – Reinhart
    3. Edm – Draisaitl

    Agree 100%. That is the way this draft will go. The oilers will get that big center they covet. Ekblad will be gone by the third pick for sure. The TSN panel seem to think Draisaitl is NHL ready. We shall see soon enough. This is the last piece we needed to complete the re build. It was a tough year but getting this player is important, especially the way all the defense are developing. I agree with Mact that we are getting closer to a completed rebuild by having drafted all the pieces you can’t seem to get through UFA or trades. All is needed now is to get some size in the top nine and have a mix of players that WILL compete as well as one excellent vet defensemen. Hopefully Draisaitl is ready and puts up a better year than Monahan. A year like Mackinnon would be awesome..

  52. hunter1909 says:

    Okay that’s probably going to be it for hunter1909 until October, assuming everyone survives the summer. Thank you to the few who astonishingly read my drivel.

    I’m certain to be drunk, so might post something else later on tonight, but since right now I’m statistically bound to be less hammered…

    hope everyone enjoyed the season(pukes).

    *waves*

  53. hunter1909 says:

    I’m happy MacT said something to the effect he wasn’t bothered, lmao.

    Still, Yaks to the Brooklyn Islanders has got an inevitability around it that will not and cannot ever be ignored.

  54. speeds says:

    If we’re talking about need for the top 2 teams, could one argue/wonder if this helped the chances of EDM picking Ekblad at 3. The following has a bunch of assumptions, but here goes:

    If we assume BUF would have selected the Best Forward Available at either 1 or 2 (not a given, but let’s say that’s the case for the sake of argument), then this probably increases the chances FLA takes a F unless they have Ekblad rated 1, in which case they’d have taken him at 2 anyways even had BUF retained the first pick.

  55. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Having heard the mact interview now I’m thinking he’s expecting some change in the coaching staff.

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    icecastles:
    Just thinking about how completely it must suck to be a Buffalo fan right now…

    forget them… look at the Isles.

  57. hodgkins says:

    So Gagner is traded for who-knows-what, Draisaitl is available at number 3 and he makes the opening night roster as our 2C.

    Nuge-Hall-Ebs
    Draisaitl-Perron-Yak

    ?

  58. russ99 says:

    We’re in a pretty good spot – regardless of what happens 1 and 2, we’ll either get Ekblad (doubtful) or one or the two top centers.

  59. Younger Oil says:

    This draft is going to be a huge win no matter what. Being guaranteed one of Draisaitl, Ekblad, or Reinhart fills a huge hole for this team going forward.

    The only thing that could go wrong IMO is if MacT is too impatient and trades it for a 30 year old who will likely be on the decline in a couple years. This team is still probably a couple years away from making the playoffs, and a steady flow of quality draft picks is key.

    With Nuge, Draisaitl, Chase, Khaira and Yakimov, along with Lander and Arco, we potentially are about to see a ton of depth at center in the coming years. Add that to a promising crop of D prospects, and we might be in for a treat in a couple of years.

  60. hodgkins says:

    Suppose Ekblad and Draisaitl are both sitting there at 3, however unlikely that may be. We’ve got a pipeline full of young defenceman but no 2C in the org. Do you take the German? I think I might if he’s ready for the show.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hodgkins:
    Suppose Ekblad and Draisaitl are both sitting there at 3, however unlikely that may be.We’ve got a pipeline full of young defenceman but no 2C in the org.Do you take the German?

    I would.

    but more because I’m wary of D that high and love Draisaitl than I’m convinced of the powers of our D prospects.

  62. VanOil says:

    I hope MacT/Howlson is meeting with Talon this evening. Expressing interest in Campbell or Kulikov while talking up Ekblad.

    I would offer Gernat + 2015 1st round pick for Kulikov and 2014 2nd. Or Gernat + a later round pick for Campbell. Campbell having less value because he is old and expensive.

    Select the best Center with the pick.

  63. Marcus Oilerius says:

    speeds: If we’re talking about need for the top 2 teams, could one argue/wonder if this helped the chances of EDM picking Ekblad at 3. The following has a bunch of assumptions, but here goes:

    Quite the opposite feeling, IMO. Florida has Huberdeau and Barkov down the middle. All three top forward prospects were centres. I’m sure they could be converted to wing, but given the very public example of the Oilers and what happens to lottery teams that don’t build defence, I can’t see why Florida wouldn’t claim Ekblad. He may not be the next Pronger or Niedermayer, but he’s still got an admirably high ceiling and can step in immediately.

  64. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    My instant mock if you’re interested

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2027823-2014-nhl-mock-draft-post-lottery-first-round-projections

    Just have to say, I was expecting more mock. But not a single mention of Rico Fata.

    That list looks right to me.

    One thing though, given the top three seem to be generally discussed as a group, I think we could put the chances of the Oilers drafting Ekblad at #3 as only slightly less than getting Draisaitl there.

    Looking at the Oilers’ situation here I’m reminded of the Avs in 2009 when Tavares and Hedmen went 1 and 2 and the Avs were quite content to get Duchene at #3.

  65. VanOil says:

    I like LTs mock but am dismayed by the Flames acquiring 2 Centers with only 2 years of out right suckatude.

  66. linkfromhyrule says:

    Based on Tim Murray’s comments, I don’t think buffalo will select Ekblad. He doesn’t believe Ekblad is a “franchise defenseman.” That being said, it really depends how much they like (or don’t like) the other 2.

    Panthers might also be more interested in the forwards. We may get Ekblad. I have my doubts about him, but there’s really no way of telling how he will actually turn out. Drafting defenseman can be kind of a crap shoot at times.

    I personally hope that Draisaitl will fall to us. The big german just seems like a better fit for the current oilers situation. We don’t need to get any younger on the blue going in to next season!!!

  67. Henry says:

    hunter1909: Believe it or not I’ve got a 6 bottle box full in one of my cupboards. Saving it for the apocalypse, lol.

    Great whisky. Pirate stuff. Only 10 year old, forget the others.

    This has been more of an Exodus than the Apocalypse. After years of wandering in the desert, Leon comes.

    Drink! (I drink the 12 year, but only because the 18 year is now unaffordable).

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    Having heard the mact interview now I’m thinking he’s expecting some change in the coaching staff.

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    I agree. A strong recommendation from management followed by ‘It’s was out of my hands, Dallas has to be able to bring in his choices.’

    Sort of like last year’s ‘Our difficulties this year were 100% not coaching.’

  68. striatic says:

    Are there any analytics or anecdotes that separate Ekblad from the Cam Barkers and Jack Johnsons of recent memory?

  69. tcho says:

    They couldn’t hire Steve Tambellini back for a day or two? Man.

  70. Marcus Oilerius says:

    striatic:
    Are there any analytics or anecdotes that separate Ekblad from the Cam Barkers and Jack Johnsons of recent memory?

    Not any I’m aware of.

    It’s funny though, when you look for articles about older drafts, they just seem to disappear. It’s as if the talking heads don’t want to be associated with projecting Cam Barker as the next Pronger or something.

  71. PunjabiOil says:

    - Owner’s son indicates they’re stacked at forward. No real top end defensive prospects their either. They could very well take Ekblad

    - Buffalo takes Reinhart

    Edmonton now forced to decide between Draisaitl and Bennett. It will be a pick they’ll be held accountable for and measured for the next 10 years.

    ________________

    Another scenario is Florida takes reinhart, Buffalo takes Bennett.

    Then you’re left with a choice between Draisaitl or Ekblad.

    ________________

    I don’t think you try to outsmart the market here. Take whoever is left from the top 3.

  72. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Henry,

    Pretty much they look on track to me if they’re on the coach’s track.

  73. Rondo says:

    Forget Ekblad next year s draft lottery we will want Noah Hanifin.

  74. flyfish1168 says:

    Interesting how only Marincin is the only Oiler confirmed to the worlds. Still hoping Hall RNH and Eberle makes it.

  75. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    PunjabiOil: Owner’s son indicates they’re stacked at forward

    For one second I thought you were taking about Kid Katz.

  76. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    flyfish1168,

    Thought Perron is confirmed.

  77. Alpine says:

    striatic,

    Analytically, Ekblad looks a lot like Zach Bogosian, and anecdotally Erik Johnson. Maybe a bit of Dougie Hamilton too. First two guys I’d love to have, but also took a while to get to that top pairing level (I don’t believe either are true no. 1s). Hamilton’s still developing. Honestly, Ekblad looks pretty good, but I’m sure he’ll take a similar developmental path like most high D picks. Doughty’s really an outlier among those type of guys.

  78. Younger Oil says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting how only Marincin is the only Oiler confirmed to the worlds. Still hoping Hall RNH and Eberle makes it.

    I think Perron confirmed as well.

    http://www.tsn.ca/canadian_hockey/story/?id=448977

  79. theres oil in virginia says:

    striatic:
    Are there any analytics or anecdotes that separate Ekblad from the Cam Barkers and Jack Johnsons of recent memory?

    I don’t know, but there are plenty of analytics and anecdotes that separate Jack Johnson from Cam Barker. As much as you may not like him, JJ does not belong lumped in with Barker.

    Hey Woodguy, if you’re around (and can stomach it, hehe) take a look at the BTN stats for JJ this year. I’ve got him listed with the other CBJ defensemen who played 40 games or more. I watched a bit of CBJ this year, and he was paired often with Tyutin, while Wisniewski was paired with Murray, and then Nikitin and Savard, etc were third pair. I don’t think those numbers look bad. He’s down a bit on Corsi ON and Corsi Rel, but look at his ZS% and ZF%. Isn’t there a way to adjust Corsi for ZS? His PDO is right where you’d want it to be. (Also note Nick Schultz on that chart. Ugh.)

  80. russ99 says:

    I think the one thing were forgetting is if the Islanders give the Sabres the 5th pick this year, how does that change their draft strategy?

    Would they then pick a center 2nd knowing that a quality winger would be there at #5?

  81. speeds says:

    Marcus Oilerius:but given the very public example of the Oilers and what happens to lottery teams that don’t build defence, I can’t see why Florida wouldn’t claim Ekblad.

    They might think they have an in-house example of why not, in Gudbranson.

  82. Numenius says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    Based on Tim Murray’s comments, I don’t think buffalo will select Ekblad. He doesn’t believe Ekblad is a “franchise defenseman.” That being said, it really depends how much they like (or don’t like) the other 2.

    Panthers might also be more interested in the forwards. We may get Ekblad. I have my doubts about him, but there’s really no way of telling how he will actually turn out. Drafting defenseman can be kind of a crap shoot at times.

    I personally hope that Draisaitl will fall to us. The big german just seems like a better fit for the current oilers situation. We don’t need to get any younger on the blue going in to next season!!!

    I’m fully on board with this.

    About Draisaitl, there’s something about the combination of his skill and character that makes me suspect he’d fit perfectly with the current core.

    I especially get the sense he’d be the right guy to play with Yak. He’s a possession player who protects the puck, digs it out, and passes beautifully – and Yak’s the perfect finisher. They’d also have the European connection, which I’m sure would help.

    You’re getting 2 elite players, in effect, for the price of 1.

    Bennett, I’m guessing, would clash with Yak.

  83. Gerta Rauss says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting how only Marincin is the only Oiler confirmed to the worlds. Still hoping Hall RNH and Eberle makes it.

    Petry is playing for the US

  84. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    russ99,
    If Sabres get the 5th there is a lot incentive to upgrade to 3rd.

  85. flyfish1168 says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    Younger Oil,

    Yes you guys are correct. Lets hope the other 3 will be added

  86. Numenius says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting how only Marincin is the only Oiler confirmed to the worlds. Still hoping Hall RNH and Eberle makes it.

    Word is that Hall, RNH, and Eberle declined due to lingering injuries.

  87. danny says:

    TSN took a poll of 12 scouts.

    7 picked Ekblad first.
    3 picked Reinhart
    2 picked Bennett

    It’s not a landslide for Ekblad, which combined with the logic that D aren’t a smart first overall pick, makes me kinda happy we didn’t win the lottery tonight.

    I hope MBS has a pulse on which pivot he wants and we take it… Draisatl didn’t get much love for #1 overall but that’s hardly surprising. He reminds me of Kopitar a bit… and if that were realistic, who cares how good the two players above him become? Kopi at center on the Oilers would be NICE.

  88. Gerta Rauss says:

    I’m fine with the 3rd pick-we should get a nice C out of this draft.

    I’d still be up for trading the pick, especially if Ekblad is there at 3…maybe somebody really likes him and offers 110 cents on the dollar. I doubt the pick is traded however…MacT mentioned (again) today how underwhelmed he was with the offers for 7 last year.

  89. gcw_rocks says:

    So, MacT didn’t have the guts to show up and “own” his lottery pick on national TV?

  90. flyfish1168 says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Great more the better.

  91. Ryan says:

    What’re the chances that the dry saddle is on board when the Oilers pick 3rd?

  92. Gerta Rauss says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    russ99,If Sabres get the 5th there is a lot incentive to upgrade to 3rd.

    cough*Ehrhoff*cough

  93. Ryan says:

    gcw_rocks:
    So, MacT didn’t have the guts to show up and “own” his lottery pick on national TV?

    No, he was too busy waxing poetic on how good of coach Eakins is while, Trotz is on the market.

  94. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss: Petry is playing for the US

    Belov is playing for RUS

  95. Marcus Oilerius says:

    gcw_rocks:
    So, MacT didn’t have the guts to show up and “own” his lottery pick on national TV?

    Only GM to show up was Tim Murray.

    Burke did too, as POHO for the Flames, but Burkie likes the spotlight.

  96. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Draisaitl and Bennet will be there at 3. Good year to be picking 3rd, could easily end up with the best player.

  97. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: I don’t know, but there are plenty of analytics and anecdotes that separate Jack Johnson from Cam Barker.As much as you may not like him, JJ does not belong lumped in with Barker.

    Hey Woodguy, if you’re around (and can stomach it, hehe) take a look at the BTN stats for JJ this year.I’ve got him listed with the other CBJ defensemen who played 40 games or more.I watched a bit of CBJ this year, and he was paired often with Tyutin, while Wisniewski was paired with Murray, and then Nikitin and Savard, etc were third pair. I don’t think those numbers look bad.He’s down a bit on Corsi ON and Corsi Rel, but look at his ZS% and ZF%.Isn’t there a way to adjust Corsi for ZS?His PDO is right where you’d want it to be.(Also note Nick Schultz on that chart.Ugh.)

    JJ did have a better year than his normal disaster.

    Unfortunately for him, every player who played any significant minutes with him was generally worse with him.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=20&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

    Might be the QC that he was seeing, but its still there.

    Definitely had a better year.

  98. Ryan says:

    Timing us a bitch, isn’t it?

    Hindsight being 20-20, wouldn’t Mact ride out another year of Krueger instead of hiring Eakins, the n grab the Trotz sweepstakes.

  99. Ryan says:

    Lol myself and typing on an IPad is a bad combo, sorry guys.

  100. Jasmine says:

    Zangetsu:
    Sotheres’s a lesson learnt twice. Patrick kane vs gagner last time.

    How many times does this have to be said? Chicago and the Oilers were tied with 71 points and if the OIlers had lost that game, they would have had 69 points and Washington would have had 70 points. WASHINGTON WOULD HAVE GOTTEN KANE AND THE OILERS WOULD HAVE DROPPED IN THE LOTTERY FROM 4TH TO 5TH.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20062007&type=lea#&navid=nav-stn-league

  101. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy: Belov is playing for RUS

    thanks, I knew there was a 4th but couldn’t find the info on the Oilers site(in the 30 seconds I allotted for actually looking)

  102. frjohnk says:

    This is a long comment, feel free to read, skip or whatever. But it pertains to who the oilers pick in this years draft.

    I have mentioned my concern about picking a late draft pick like a Reinhart or a Draisaitl many times. Whether or not it is warranted, I didn’t know, but I wanted to find out. For those wondering, I have jumped on and off the Draisaitl wagon so much I now need a hip replacement, lukewarm about Reinhart, feel that drafting Ekblad is redundant with our D prospect pool, and Bennett will be the best player out of this group.

    So I looked at the top 10 picks from the draft years of 2005 to 2010 ( 2011 and on, I feel they have not developed enough) picked out late birthdate players and looked at how they developed. There are studs, like Hall, Tavares, Kane and Doughty, busts like Hamill, who? And guys who fall in between, Kadri, Brassard.

    Here are the late birthdate players picked in the top 10 from 2005 to 2010 who have not lived up to their draft expectations.

    Beniot Pouliot drafted 4th overall in 2005. In 2003-04 he played in the CJHL as a 17 year old and scored 0.93 pts/ game. If born 2 months earlier, he would have been in the 2004 draft and probably drafted 3nd round, most likely later. But because of a late birthdate, as a 18 year old he scored 0.97 pts/game in the QMJHL, and scouts like his size and speed, he was drafted 4th overall. He is currently a second/ third liner.

    Derick Brassard drafted 6th overall in 2006. If born one week earlier, he would have entered the 2005 draft with 1.1 pts/game in the QMJHL. Maybe a late first rounder in 2005, or 2nd round. But as a late birthdate, he put up 2 pts/game the next year and was drafted 6th overall. Currently plays third line, sometimes 2nd.

    Karl Azlner drafted 5th overall in 2007. If born 10 days earlier, he would have entered the 2006 draft with 0.4 pts/game for a defensive D man. Might have been a late first round, early 2nd round selection in 2006. In his draft year, he scored 0.75 pts/game which looked good for a D man who faced tough competition every game that year. He is currently a stay at home D man who has scored 7 goals and with a career average of 0.17 pts/game, he is just a tad more offensive that Smid ( 0.13 pts/game)

    Zach Hamill drafted 8th overall in 2007. If born 9 days earlier, he would have entered the 2006 draft with 1.11 pts/game. He is a smaller player, ( 5 foot 11) so probably would have went as a second or third rounder in 2006 with that point production. As a late birthdate he put up 1.35 pts/game in the WHL the next year. 4 points in 20 career nhl games. Bust.

    Keaton Ellerby drafted 10th overall in 2007. If born 1.5 months earlier, he would have entered the 2006 draft with 0.11 pts/game for a big tough D man with some skating issues in the WHL. Maybe would have went as a third rounder in 2006. As a late birthdate, he put up 0.36 pts/game in his draft year. In hindsight, at 6 foot 4 and over 200 pounds, he was a man amongst boys in the WHL in his draft year. He is currently a number 6/7 D man on a weak team.

    2008 draft had late birthdates like Luke Schenn picked 5th overall, his offense did not move much from his 17 year old season ( 0.40 pts/game) to his 18 year old season ( 0.49 pts/game). Another one of those guys who looked good because he was a man amongst boys in his draft year. He is a currently a 2ndpairing, more likely 3rd pairing stay at home D man. Colin Wilson picked 7th overall, couldn’t really gauge his progress as a 17 and 18 year old as he changed leagues. But he is a third liner, who is a good defensive winger with some offensive ability . Has played a little center. ( 48% FO career average) Both are not busts but not players who fit in their draft spot well either.

    2009 none.

    2010 draft had Alex Burmistrov picked 8th overall as a late birthdate. He put up 1.05 pts/game in the OHL in his draft year. If born 5 weeks earlier he would have been eligible for the 2009 draft. In his 17 year old season he put up 58 points in 41 games in the Russia 3 league. Hard to tell where he would have went in the 2009 draft, as he played in Russia that year and the “Russia factor” would have weighed in, but he would have not been a first rounder. If he was still in the NHL, as he is now playing in the KHL, at best a 2nd line center, most likely a third line center in the NHL. 58 points in 193 career nhl games with a 44% FO success in the dot.

    Late birthdates who were drafted well in top 10 of each year

    2005 N/A

    2006 N/A

    2007 Patrick Kane at number 1 has exceeded expectations. If born a couple months earlier he would have been eligible in 2006. He was a stud at 17, but a short sized one! He would have went top 5 in 2006.

    2008 Drew Doughty at number 2 has exceeded expectations. His numbers in the year before his draft year were actually better. ( 1.1 pts/game as a 17 year old, 0.86 pts/ game as a 18 year old) Regardless, he has been a stud since 17. He probably would have went top 2 in 2007. Michael Boedker at 8th overall has met expectations. If born 2.5 months earlier, I’m not sure where he would have went in 2007 as he played in the Denmark SuperElite League and put up 49 points in 39 games. 50 points in 81 games for the Yotes this year is pretty good for this pick.

    2009. John Tavares at number 1 and Victor Hedman at number 2 have exceeded expectations. Tavares was a stud at 16, never mind 17. At the beginning of the 2008-09 season, Hedman was the top ranked European skater because of his size (6 foot 6) skating and skill. Nazem Kadri at number 7 has met expectations if not on the way to exceeding them.

    2010 Taylor Hall at number 1 has exceeded expectations. He had 1.33 pts/ game at 16 years old, 1.43 pts/ game as a 17 year old, 1.86 pts/ game as a 18 year old in the OHL. Hall is in the Tavares, Doughty stud camp, he had 45 goals in 63 games as a 16 year old. He was the Memorial Cup MVP as a 17 and a 18 year old. Best left winger in the NHL. Yeah, you can tell, I’m a fan.

    When drafting late birthdate players, I believe it is key that one must look at the 17 year old season as well as their draft year. If they dominated and lit it up like a Doughty, or a Tavares , or a Hall as a 18 year old AND as a 17 year old then you got a great player. But if a player has a 17 year old ho hum season , like a Brassard or Pouliet , but then they light it up as a 18 year old, it is more likely they are a “man against boys/ have had one more year of development”, than it is that they are actually going to be a great player.

    Kadri as a late birthdate is about the only player I have found in this time period who had a pretty decent 17 year old season ( 0.98 pts/game), but then had 1.39 pts/game as a 18 year old season and has lived up to his draft placement. His development was most likely helped by the fact that he played for London which I heard is not too bad of a junior team year after year.

    Now to think that “scouts have this late birthday thing factored in when ranking draft eligible players” I don’t buy it, as time and time again many of these late birthdate players who had 17 year old ho hum seasons but were drafted high after a great 18 year old season, have not really panned out as the pick should have. Many of the late birthdate players have looked good in their draft year because in their draft season they were in the “men amongst boys/have had another year of development” camps. Remember the 17 year old season seems to be key.

    I should also mention that every draft has top 10 players that are not late birthdates that don’t pan out as well as scouts believe they will. Reasons include confidence and emotional issues ( Brule in 2005), skill level is overestimated in a lower league ( Skille in 2005) game just does not translate that well to the NHL ( Sheppard in 2006) who are rushed into the NHL ( Gagner in 2007) who ride the coat tails of a good line mate ( Scott Glennie in 2009, Gagner). Some of these issues may have also happened to some of the late birthday players who have not panned out as well. So for me to say that the only reason why a late birthday player does not pan out is ONLY because of their late birthdate would be incorrect.

    Now if we look at the top ranked players of this years draft who are late birthdates that the oilers may pick, we have

    Sam Reinhart who as a 17 year old put up 1.18 pts/ game and 1.64 pts/ game as a 18 year old.

    Leon Draisaitl who as a 17 year old put up 0.90 pts/ game and 1.64 pts/ game as a 18 year old.

    Aaron Ekblad, while not a late birthdate but is in his 3rd junior season, who, if born 5 weeks earlier than his Feb 7th birthdate, would have been a “late birthday player” and not an “exceptional player”. In Ekblads second season in the OHL, he put up 0.63 pts/game and in his 3rd season, he put up 0.93 pts/game as a D man.

    If at 6 foot 3 and 215 pounds, people consider Ekblad a “man amongst boys” and I don’t disagree with this, then we should also be looking at the guys who are bigger and also with late birthdates and consider the fact that they have an advantage as well. Draisaitl at 6 foot 1.5 and 208 pounds , could be considered a “man against boys”, as he is a pretty big guy vs kids (one stat I read shows average junior player is 6 feet, 188 pounds). Having a late birthdate also gives him the advantage of being older than most other kids in this draft year. Reinhart also has an advantage in that he falls into the “had one more year of development” camp as this is his 3rd regular season in the WHL, but also his 4th playoffs. Out of these three players, Draisaitl did not have a truly dominating season last year. But that could have been skewed by the fact he had to adjust to the NA game along with a new language and culture, which is not always an easy transition for Europeans. So in a sense he may have had something closer to a great season when factoring in all the adjustments he had to make. Reinhart had a great season last year but not exactly dominating, while Ekblad dominated last year. Especially in the playoffs in where he lifted the team on his shoulders and led them into the OHL final.

    One more way to look at Draisaitl and Reinhart ( who with late birthdates, oiler may pick one of), is if we look at their 17 year old seasons and if they were born 6, and 7 weeks earlier respectively, Draisaitl and Reinhart would have been eligible for the 2013 draft. Reinhart with 1.18 pts game as a 17 year old, might have gone top 10, and Draisaitl with 0.90 pts/game, might have gone mid to late first round. Now go back to the studs like Hall, Tavares, and if we look at the year before they were drafted, we find that Hall and Tavares would have gone top 3 in each of those drafts. Draisaitl and Reinhart are definitely a notch below them and there is the possibility that they are tracking more like a Brassard or even just a bit better than a Kadri.

    Player Pts/Gm 17Yrs Pts/Gm 18Yrs NHL Pts/Gm Career
    Brassard 1.1 2 0.56
    Kadri 0.98 1.39 0.63
    Tavares 2 1.86 0.9
    Hall 1.43 1.86 0.92
    Reinhart 1.18 1.64
    Draisaitl 0.9 1.64
    *Bennett 1.6

    We must also realise that points are not everything when determining the value of a player. Factoring who these guys played with as a 17 year old is important, how much they played? how good/bad was the team they played on? Were they consistently matched up against the best players? Were they injured/sick part of the year? Do they have a good two way game? Good on faceoffs? Physical? Smart? Did they have to adjust to a different language, culture, country? ( Draisaitl) I think these and more are factors in determining the value of their 17 year old season. But points do give us the best basis of where we can establish a players value and possibly project into the future.

    Drafting any player, late birthday or not, can sometimes be a crapshoot. As a 17 year old, Curtis Glencross played Midget A and was not even drafted, while Dave Chyzowski scored 56 goals in 68 games in the WHL and was drafted 2nd overall in 1989. Who has the better career? There are tonnes of examples like this. Some players peak early, some are late bloomers. Injuries, stunted development can hurt a player while lucky breaks and a drive to succeed against all odds can also launch a players career. Anything can happen, as these are just 17 and 18 year old kids with their whole career in front of them, good or bad.

    I’m not saying Draisaitl or Reinhart will bust, but its just that the late birthdate adds another possible wrinkle or curveball into whether or not a player turns out down the road to be as good as they are picked.

    For more on this, people should read http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.html . A couple of quotes worth noting.

    “An entire year’s worth of players become eligible for the draft, but the players born earlier in the year have a peak value 35% lower than players born late in the year. This is obvious when you consider the difference that one year of physical maturity can make at age 17. (We should keep this in mind when debating Bennett vs Draisaitl or Reinhart) In evaluating a player, it is critical to keep in mind his exact age, down to his month of birth.”

    “The key point is that just because two players are eligible for the draft in the same year, it doesn’t mean drafting teams can ignore age differences between the two players.”

  103. hags9k says:

    My mock 1-4.
    FLA- Reinhart. They won’t be wanting to wait for another D like Gudbranson, they will want an impact C to go with Barkov.
    BUF- Bennett. Ted Nolan hockey.
    EDM- Ekblad.
    CGY- Leon.

  104. fifthcartel says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    The David Poile quote on Shea Weber makes it clear…Weber ain’t going anywhere. I could see Colin Wilson and Ryan Ellis in play

    I bet this is one of those tweets we look back to and go ohhhh when Wilson gets traded to Edmonton.

  105. frjohnk says:

    With that all said, oilers pick Draisaitl, as they don’t want two small centers RNH and Bennett against the flames big centers Monahan and Draisaitl for the next decade.

  106. ohhell says:

    frjohnk,

    Great post. I too am bullish on Bennett.

  107. flyfish1168 says:

    Interesting article from Elliotte Friedman especially the 30th thought

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2014/04/30-thoughts-ryan-getzlaf-for-mvp.html

  108. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk,

    It could be worst if ekblad is available and he turns out to be the big stud d-man

  109. G Money says:

    The important thing was finishing in 28th – no matter who won the lottery, it means getting either that top pairing D or that 2C to fill the glaring long-term gap at those positions. Welcome, #3.

    Whoever the Oilers pick now – unless they do something Steve Kelly Stupid – they will fill one of those gaps for the long-term. That will define who and what MacT has to trade, and what he needs to trade for.

    BTW, based on my draft success number crunching exercise, if Ekblad is available and the Oilers pick him, #3 is a fine place to pick a D.

  110. David says:

    fifthcartel:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    The David Poile quote on Shea Weber makes it clear…Weber ain’t going anywhere. I could see Colin Wilson and Ryan Ellis in play

    I bet this is one of those tweets we look back to and go ohhhh when Wilson gets traded to Edmonton.

    Huge fan of Ryan Ellis, always wanted him. There has been chatter over the years that the Oilers like him.

    Don’t rule out Buffalo taking Draisaitl. Tim Murray has praised him along with Reinhart. Florida is definitely taking Ekblad.

  111. Rondo says:

    David,

    Not so sure as you Florida will take Ekblad I would give it 75% chance he is a D-man and they rarely go #1.

  112. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks, I hadn’t looked at the WOWY. By eye, in the games I watched, he rarely made the wrong play or was out of position. I thought he looked very impressive, as did the CBJ defense in general, before injuries hit.

  113. cahill says:

    fifthcartel:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    The David Poile quote on Shea Weber makes it clear…Weber ain’t going anywhere. I could see Colin Wilson and Ryan Ellis in play

    I bet this is one of those tweets we look back to and go ohhhh when Wilson gets traded to Edmonton.

    I was thinking the same thing. Wilson plays mainly as a winger. I think a Wilson – Gagner deal makes sense.

    Colin Wilson vs Sam Gagner @ Evens
    Pts/60 1.42 – 1.43
    G/60 .51 – .38
    PDO 990 – 967
    CF% 48.4 – 44.1
    OZone 54.4 – 55.3
    FO% 48.4 – 46.8

    Last year’s Pts/60 – 2.02 – 1.62.

    I think that Gagner brings more to the table on the PP though.

  114. theres oil in virginia says:

    MacT on defense:

    “looking for a high-end defenseman”

    “won’t be adding middle of the road…young guys can fill those positions”

    “if we have to go young, we go young”

    Get ready for, at minimum, Marincin and Klefbom next fall…at minimum. Doesn’t sound like he’s looking to add Greene, et al.

  115. David says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    MacT on defense:

    Get ready for, at minimum, Marincin and Klefbom next fall…at minimum.Doesn’t sound like he’s looking to add Greene, et al.

    They’re going to go after Markov and if that fails I assume we’ll see a very young D corps.

  116. blackadder says:

    I really like what I’ve read on Bennett – all things being equal, I don’t know how you pass on the guy compared with Gilmour and Toews. Than again, I also have to admit that, for no logical reason that I can discern, every time someone says Leon Draisaitl, my mind hears Jason Bonsignore.

  117. flyfish1168 says:

    Randy Carlyle interview interesting interview on TSN. I believe he was talking about Morgan Rielly. If it is Morgan I would love to know who he sees himself as.

  118. theres oil in virginia says:

    MacT on the coaches:

    “the head coach should decide on what the staff is”

    “Steve Smith…is developing into an exceptional coach…he’s got great rapport”

    “you listen to Ryan Smyth…about Kelly Buchberger. Kelly Buchberger’s got a lot of really great traits”

    “this isn’t about coaching…the easiest piece to get rid of would be the assistant coaches”

    “but the far bigger part of this is the player personnel decisions that I need to make to make them look a whole lot more effective”

    Sounds like the coaching staff is set. It’s the roster.

  119. David says:

    Rondo:
    David,

    Not so sure as youFlorida will take EkbladI would give it 75% chance he is a D-man and they rarely go #1.

    Sometimes I wonder if it just a case of an elite forward being available. Doughty got beat out by Stamkos, Hedman by Tavares, jones by Mackinnon and then Barkov and Drouin who were also in the conversation for number one.

  120. theres oil in virginia says:

    David,

    I’ll be surprised if they get anybody UFA to fill that spot. You never know though.

  121. David says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    David,

    I’ll be surprised if they get anybody UFA to fill that spot.You never know though.

    Well then it’s a case of how good a defenseman can you get for Gagner and Marincin? Not really any other tradable assets that they will part with.

  122. theres oil in virginia says:

    MacT on “the core”:

    Q: “Can you get a high end defenseman without trading one of your core players?”
    A: I think we can…there are lots of assets that we have…developing defensemen…”

    “do as much work as i can…don’t do anything stupid. If we get something that makes sense…we’ll make that change”

    “we’re building our team around this group…guys that are gonna develop into winners”

    “Jordan Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, certainly Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz”

    I particularly like the “don’t do anything stupid” part.

  123. stevezie says:

    Numenius: Bennett, I’m guessing, would clash with Yak.

    This seems like an odd thing to guess. Why do you guess this?

  124. theres oil in virginia says:

    David: Well then it’s a case of how good a defenseman can you get for Gagner and Marincin? Not really any other tradable assets that they will part with.

    Damn dude, you predicted (without bending space-time) the next segment of MacT’s presser! Good job.

  125. theres oil in virginia says:

    A couple of random-ish tidbits:

    “we’ve gotta look elsewhere…” (outside the system) for secondary scoring on 2nd and 3rd line

    “Steve Tambellini put a lot of detail into the amateur scouts that maybe wasn’t there currently” (previously)

    Doesn’t look like any (many?) of the forwards in the system have impressed for next year.

  126. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    A couple of random-ish tidbits:

    Doesn’t look like any (many?) of the forwards in the system have impressed for next year.

    Horak’s a nice player imo. I think Lander has the glove but no bat, and we should remember Arcobello as a legit player from OKC, too.

    The other thing is that if Pitlick and Lander and Horak etc are in OKC next season, that’s a nice callup group.

  127. PunjabiOil says:

    The Nashville newspapers had Colin Wilson for Gagner talks in play near the deadline. Stauffer wouldn’t throw that out there IMO if it didn’t have Edmonton ties to it.

    It’s the type of deal that I can see being made.

    Would rather have him than Josh Bailey.

    Re: Draft – could it be possible the Oilers haven’t decided at all? We know the scouts liked Murray, but were overruled. Last year, the scouts like Nichuskin, and MacT went with Nurse. They’re probably doing their homework, waiting to watch more games of Reinhart, Draisaitl (I believe he’s going to the World Championships) before arriving at a conclusion.

    We wait.

  128. theres oil in virginia says:

    MacT on Nail Yakupov:

    “there have been a lot of guys that go through a sophomore jinx…a lot of great players that have struggled in their sophomore year”

    “we’re looking for Nail to improve, he’s getting bigger and stronger”

    “sending him to OKC was never an option…we’re committed to developing Nail”

    “we still believe he’s gonna be a great goal-scorer, and there’s a premium on goal-scoring”

    Probably the coup-de-gras of the whole press conference.

    People, if you don’t sleep better after hearing all of this, then I don’t know what to tell you. The right guy is in charge.

    Go ahead Hunter, fire away. ;)

  129. David says:

    Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Yakupov, Schultz, Klefbom, Nurse, (Draisaitl?) that is a good core to build around. I know LT is all doom and gloom about the Oilers are going to trade Yakupov this summer but I don’t see it. MacT has established by track record that he highly values his players. The insiders were throwing around anonymous quotes from other GM’s saying MacT over values his players and asks too much. Seeing as how Yakupov’s value would be at an all time low I don’t see MacT giving him away. Add the fact that trading him would be really really really stupid and MacT is a smart guy. I think Yakupov is here next year. Then all he has to do is take a jump forward and we won’t want o get rid of him.

  130. stevezie says:

    theres oil in virginia: “Steve Tambellini put a lot of detail into the amateur scouts that maybe wasn’t there”

    I’m not trying to be a jerk, but this sentence doesn’t make sense to me. Is it a typo, or did MacT skip a word?

    Did he mean faith? Is MacT criticizing the scouts? Or is he just saying guys aren’t turning out?

  131. denny33 says:

    Have not seen a list with Ehlers in the top 5

  132. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide,

    I’d say you’ve got it about right there. I’m both encouraged and a little discouraged by that part of the PC. I’m glad he’s aiming higher than these guys, but I think one, or a couple of them would be fine with the right mix. I don’t like the idea of giving up on players who are still improving. They do lack offensive punch though, and I think that’s what is hurting their cause with MacT. Hopefully they stay on the farm.

  133. theres oil in virginia says:

    stevezie,

    It’s not really a typo, but there were a few spots where MacT was not supremely eloquent. Closer to Don King in a couple of spots, actually. So, it was difficult to choose his words without just re-writing it.

    I’ve edited the post a bit to help, but he was suggesting that Tambi put a lot of work into developing the amateur scouts (and later he mentioned pro scouts). He went on to state that he was happy with both the pro- and amateur-scouting staffs.

  134. David says:

    Guy who everyone is undervaluing and will be a late first round steal by some team like Boston or Chicago : Connor Bleackly. Saw him real good. All of the Rebels offence went through him. Great passing, vision, descision making, drove the net, big body. He’s going to be high on re drafts down the road.

  135. 719 says:

    frjohnk,

    Interesting read thank you.

    I also think Buffalo takes Draisatl, Murray seems to really like him. Buffalo has a small centre already in Hodgson too.

  136. denny33 says:

    hags9k,

    Florida has Bjugstad, Barkov and Huberdeau….

    Jovanovski, Campbell and the famous Gilbert (32 next year) to play forever?

  137. Bad Seed says:

    719,

    Yes, that was a great read.

    So, if Draisatl & Ekblad or both gone, do we take Reinhart or Bennet?

  138. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Bad Seed,

    Bennett. Second year in junior, almost matched Reinhart’s 3rd year production, noted for a 200′ game and a mean streak. At best Gilmour, at worst Perron? I’ll take that.

  139. k-dawg says:

    I think the Oil take Bennet. Seems to line up the Mac Ts description of the type of player they are after… Wasn’t he just rank #1 overall by central scouting?

  140. hags9k says:

    denny33,

    Pretty sure Huberdeau played on Barkov’s wing. I wouldn’t be ready to stand pat at C with Bjugstad at #2, if I was them.

    You are right about their aging D though, but I just think it’s common for these top rated D to slide. C’s are safer and sooner.

  141. denny33 says:

    Just to repeat Mackenzie’s final list:

    1. Ekblad
    2. Reinhart
    3. Bennett
    4. Draisaitl
    5. Dal Colle

    There is separation after this top 5 group

  142. hags9k says:

    Is it normal to be terrified that Bennett ends up the best of the bunch and in a Flames jersey?

    I’ll say this will be the draft that defines Stu. 5 years out from this one we will know. Magnificent or bastard.

  143. Bank Shot says:

    blackadder:
    I really like what I’ve read on Bennett – all things being equal, I don’t know how you pass on the guy compared with Gilmour and Toews.Than again, I also have to admit that, for no logicalreason that I can discern, every time someone says Leon Draisaitl, my mind hears Jason Bonsignore.

    That’s my thinking as well. Well, I don’t know about the Bonsignore part, but pretty much everyone has Bennett ranked above Draisatl.

    If it gets to the Oilers having their choice between Draisatl and Bennett I will be pretty disappointed if they take the German.

    To me it would reek of the Oilers drafting for a perceived need (size) when Draisatl isn’t even that big.

  144. Numenius says:

    hags9k:
    Is it normal to be terrified that Bennett ends up the best of the bunch and in a Flames jersey?

    That’s my worry too.

    The Flames slipped into 4th at the end there just under the radar. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more hand-wringing about that in the threads.

    Damn Islanders winning their last game.

  145. denny33 says:

    hags9k,

    Florida could easily take a C…..but how do you build a team by not drafting any – high end – defenceman?

    It will be very interesting to to see what Tallon does….

    Again, conceding there are misses along the way…..

  146. denny33 says:

    I am on record for Ekblad, but if we take a C my choice is for Bennett…..and I think Bennett will be the best player coming out of this draft.

    Doubt Bennett will be around when we pick…..

  147. Ducey says:

    Numenius: That’s my worry too.

    The Flames slipped into 4th at the end there just under the radar. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more hand-wringing about that in the threads.

    Damn Islanders winning their last game.

    I was sitting with my kids during the draw and laughing at Burke. The guy looks and sounds absolutely ridiculous.

  148. hags9k says:

    k-dawg,

    Is P. Bergeron a modern day Gilmour? Would you trade Bergeron for Kopitar?

  149. k-dawg says:

    hags9k:
    k-dawg,

    Is P. Bergeron a modern day Gilmour?Would you trade Bergeron for Kopitar?

    Not sure, but I’ve heard Bennet is compared to Toews. Comparisons are tough but if that is true, then that is exactly what I would think the Oil need. Someone ultra competitive with top end skill to add to the core. Only thing is he might not be ready next year?

  150. 719 says:

    hags9k:
    k-dawg,

    Is P. Bergeron a modern day Gilmour?Would you trade Bergeron for Kopitar?

    That would be a hard trade, not sure to tell you the truth.

    I do hope they take Bennett, if he is available.

  151. 719 says:

    k-dawg: Not sure, but I’ve heard Bennet is compared to Toews. Comparisons are tough but if that is true, then that is exactly what I would think the Oil need. Someone ultra competitive with top end skill to add to the core.Only thing is he might not be ready next year?

    Yes the competitive streak cannot be discounted in this kid.

  152. theres oil in virginia says:

    frjohnk,

    Thanks for posting that, it was an interesting read. The take-home appears to be more uncertainty.

  153. Woodguy says:

    DSF knows hockey better than I.

  154. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Woodguy:
    DSF knows hockey better than I.

    Quoting legendary post.

    Squee.

  155. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    DSF knows hockey better than I.

    That must have hurt.

  156. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy:
    DSF knows hockey better than I.

    I was waiting for this. I purposefully did not post the final tally (Brown by 2 points!), although I was tracking it at the end. I didn’t want to get in the middle of it.

    You, sir, are a real man.

  157. 719 says:

    Woodguy:
    DSF knows hockey better than I.

    A Lannister and Woodguy always pay their debts. A true gentleman.

  158. Lois Lowe says:

    The way I see it is that the Oilers are essentially saved from themselves in that two teams are going to be picking BPA ahead of them. We’ll wait until the McKenzie list is out, but my read of the various scouting agencies is that they have Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart, and Draisaitl in some particular order. At worst the Oilers get one of the three Cs, all of whom have nice upsides, and maybe Ekblad falls the way Jones did last year. I’m not certain the Oilers need another D prospect personally, but he’s a pretty good consolation prize (even if he only become Chris Phillips).

  159. PunjabiOil says:

    Yeah, looking at the youtube season highlights, you have to take Bennett over Draisaitl.

    The skating for Draisaitl is too big of a gamble to take.

    As Bob McKenzie said, there is a top 3 and separation after that. So don’t try to outsmart the market – pick whoever is left out of Ekblad, Bennett, and Reinhart.

    It’s not like Bennett is small anyways. He’s 6″0 and 181 pounds. Hall was 6″1 and 185, Seguin was 6″1 175 lbs.

    If we take Draisaitl and it doesn’t work out (or we get a lesser player than Bennett), it will be Pouliot/Parise 2.0.

    Let’s not go there.

  160. stevezie says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Now I see. Thanks!

  161. Marcus Oilerius says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Staal/Toews.

    Just imagine, if Pittsburgh had chosen skill over size, they’d have Crosby, Malkin, and Toews. On the same team. Mike Milbury could coach a Cup out of that.

  162. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    DSF is smarter at something even if it is not hockey. After the exchange below Woodguy allowed DSF to move the goal posts.

    You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never to get involved in a land war in Asia.

    February 28, 2012

    Woodguy: I love the way you try to change it since Brown is off to a good start. YOU deferred it until the beginning of next season due to the uncertainty of where each player would be playing. It is exactly like you to look at recent results and insist that the bet has actually started.
    Standard.
    LOL.

    DSF: I deferred it until “we saw where they landed” after the trade deadline but you were so insistent I thought you would like to get right on it. But I’m good with it if you don’t want to count the final 20 games this season in hopes you’ll have a chance.

  163. spoiler says:

    PunjabiOil: As Bob McKenzie said, there is a top 3 and separation after that.

    Actually he said there is a top 5 and then separation after that.

  164. Hammers says:

    See what the other teams offer . We probably end up with the pick but right now anything may happen .Also did you note what McT said about 8 good teams being upset in a couple of weeks and perhaps more interested in trades .

  165. LostBoy says:

    I guess this is a long way from the party line, but MacTavish’s press conference just leaves me deflated. Okay, fine, he (impulsively) made his play and I guess there’s no way to back down.

    But for god’s sake. Barry Trotz is available. Barry Trotz who can develop defensemen like magic. Barry Trotz who had to, on the other hand, will a plugger like Legwand into a franchise C and nonentities like Erat into first line wingers.

    What do we have? A whole corp of blue chip defensive prospects on the cusp. And more skill at forward than Nashville ever dreamed of having.

    There was a time when I’d have said I don’t really want to watch a Trotz coached team. But there’s no longer any distinction, really, in systems play across the entire league.

    It makes too much sense. But Dallas Eakins, a man who took an improving team, better in virtually every area, standard or advanced statswise, team or individual, the last two season-to-season comparisons, and ran it into a ditch. He’s our guy. And so are all his inherited assistants.

    When Chicago was ripe, they didn’t hesitate to boot Savard when Quenneville became available. Patty Kane cried on TV over it, but it was a no brainer move. The Oilers should offer the keys to Trotz.

    Sorry for venting. I want to believe, but I don’t believe.

  166. Lois Lowe says:

    PunjabiOil,

    One thing I never get tired of is how unequivocal you are. It’s like you’re always privy to some magic thing that makes your opinion the only rational one. I admire your moxy.

  167. Lowetide says:

    Lois Lowe:
    PunjabiOil,

    One thing I never get tired of is how unequivocal you are. It’s like you’re always privy to some magic thing that makes your opinion the only rational one. I admire your moxy.

    It’s called youth. I had it once.

  168. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Huberdeau took 11 faceoffs this season. I recall him playing LW in junior as well, though maybe that’s just WJC that I’m projecting back to his Saint John days.

  169. spoiler says:

    Job #1 for MacT is to find out what this pick will bring. If it will bring a Couturier, or a Brayden Schenn, then he has to move it. Actually using the pick to draft a prospect should be Plan B.

    If it goes to Plan B, as alluded to by an astute poster above, the OIlers have to be very conscious of the Flames pick behind them and be certain they get their pick right.

  170. Alpine says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Watching the youtube highlights I gather that both are similar in playmaking skills and vision and even driving the net, but I can’t help but notice how much larger Draisaitl looks relative to Bennett. He’s got that broad frame too, where Bennett looks a lot like a certain skinny and frail centreman that we all know. And I really try not to treat size as the be-all end-all, but there’s a noticeable difference between the two, and that does matter at least a bit in the NHL.

    Bennett’s got the skating edge for sure, but Draisaitl can move really well once he gets going and it’s not like he can’t work on fine-tuning his edges and acceleration. Just watching some of his rushes it’s borderline terrifying watching him bear down on defenders. There are few guys of that size that have that skill level in the NHL. And obviously, there aren’t many Bennetts either. Lucky us, we’ll have a shot at one of them at least.

  171. Lois Lowe says:

    Lowetide: It’s called youth. I had it once.

    I didn’t think I was old until now. Thanks for that.

  172. mumbai max says:

    Bennett seems like the best choice. Imagine the aggravation factor of a second line featuring Perron, Bennett and Yakupov. None huge but all thick and strong, and all super competitive. Wow.
    The DESIRE and DRIVE of the player should be more important than a couple of inches. Penner or Toews?

    The good news is we get a great center in any scenario.

    I predict Ekblad lands in Calgary. Aaargh.

  173. G Money says:

    A sneak peek at my next number crunching exercise. Not that relevant to the lottery, but highly relevant to this summer in terms of signing UFA forwards.

    Purpose: what’s a “fair value” contract for a forward?

    First draft of chart (all forwards, 2013 cap hit vs career ppg, linearly regressed):

    http://i.imgur.com/Vs5zxJ2.png

    Interpretation: the blue line represents ‘average value’ for forwards across the NHL. The farther above the blue line a contract is, the better value. The farther below, the poorer it is.

    Hope to complete full analysis (have to figure out how to separate ELC and RFA contracts from UFA contracts) and post article by next week – pending how fast I get my freakin’ taxes done.

  174. Zelepukin says:

    Alpine:
    PunjabiOil,

    Watching the youtube highlights I gather that both are similar in playmaking skills and vision and even driving the net, but I can’t help but notice how much larger Draisaitl looks relative to Bennett. He’s got that broad frame too, where Bennett looks a lot like a certain skinny and frail centreman that we all know. And I really try not to treat size as the be-all end-all, but there’s a noticeable difference between the two, and that does matter at least a bit in the NHL.

    Bennett’s got the skating edge for sure, but Draisaitl can move really well once he gets going and it’s not like he can’t work on fine-tuning his edges and acceleration. Just watching some of his rushes it’s borderline terrifying watching him bear down on defenders. There are few guys of that size that have that skill level in the NHL. And obviously, there aren’t many Bennetts either. Lucky us, we’ll have a shot at one of them at least.

    I have to agree. Bennett feels like another RNH but potentially not as crafty? Draisaitl reminds me of big Joe to be honest and I could see him replacing Gagner next year.

  175. mumbai max says:

    G Money:
    A sneak peek at my next number crunching exercise.Not that relevant to the lottery, but highly relevant to this summer in terms of signing UFA forwards.

    Purpose: what’s a “fair value” contract for a forward?

    First draft of chart (all forwards, 2013 cap hit vs career ppg, linearly regressed):

    http://i.imgur.com/Vs5zxJ2.png

    Interpretation: the blue line represents ‘average value’ for forwards across the NHL.The farther above the blue line a contract is, the better value.The farther below, the poorer it is.

    Hope to complete full analysis (have to figure out how to separate ELC and RFA contracts from UFA contracts) and post article by next week – pending how fast I get my freakin’ taxes done.

    I am sure it will be very interesting. However, I think if we sign any big UFA players, you can rest assured that they will not be value contracts. And we won’t care, if they solve one or two of our key issues.

  176. Colieo87 says:

    Hey LT, great addition to the blog/#askLT

    Lets see: Oilers versus the east:
    without Hall; Perron; Gagner
    1W-5L .167%
    With Them
    14W-8L-4OTL .615%

    Against CGY; NSH; WPG
    6-2-3 .682%

    With Dubnyk; Labarbera; Bryz
    VCR; PHX; MIN; ANA;
    0-8-0 .000%
    COL; CHI; STL; LAK; DAL; SJ
    2-11-1 .179%

    with Scrivens & Fasth and addition of Marincin on D.
    VCR; PHX; MIN; ANA.
    6-3-0 .666%
    COL; STL; LAK; SJS
    1-6-0

    We need bigger pocession forwards to replace
    Smyth; Jones; Acton. Go figure

  177. Woodguy says:

    Dmitry Chesnokov ‏@dchesnokov 21m
    #KHL’s SKA announced they have signed the now former #Oilers defenseman Anton Belov to a four year contract.

    I’m not sure Belov was the answer, but I don’t think they used him correctly either.

    His numbers were pretty good when with a decent partner.

    With Jultz and Petry, he complimented very well.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1802&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

  178. Woodguy says:

    stevezie: I’m not trying to be a jerk, but this sentence doesn’t make sense to me. Is it a typo, or did MacT skip a word?

    Did he mean faith? Is MacT criticizing the scouts? Or is he just saying guys aren’t turning out?

    I think he was praising the structure that Tambellini put in place regarding how the scouts do their job and how the kids are now developed.

    In his next breath MacT mentioned how the scouts needed better leadership.

    Its one thing to scout, who you scout and who the team actually draft/trade for/sign as UFA is up to the GM.

    People like to roast MBS, but think about this:

    The same head scout who took Abney in the 3rd took Slepshev and Yakimov in the 3rd.

    Never discount directions from the GM

  179. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    I’ve seen oil tankers with a quicker first step. Otherwise he was a decent player

  180. godot10 says:

    FYI

    Florida’s new owners are the owners of the high speed trading firm Virtu, that just recently pulled their IPO, because of the to-do that Michael Lewis’s book “Flash Boys” (starring a Canadian, no less) has caused.

    The Florida owners clearly knew how to “front-run” the lottery and get their balls to the front of the line.

    These guys are also shaking down Broward Country for about $75 million the previous ownership committed to the Panther’s arena, and are asking for an ongoing subsidy.

  181. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: I think he was praising the structure that Tambellini put in place regarding how the scouts do their job and how the kids are now developed.

    In his next breath MacT mentioned how the scouts needed better leadership.

    Its one thing to scout, who you scout and who the team actually draft/trade for/sign as UFA is up to the GM.

    People like to roast MBS, but think about this:

    The same head scout who took Abney in the 3rd took Slepshev and Yakimov in the 3rd.

    Never discount directions from the GM

    There was far too much of “players not being used properly” this year for me to be as bullish as MacT is about the coaching staff. I was particularly impressed with MacT’s assessment of Bucky’s great skill of being a tie ‘to to the history and success of the organization’.

  182. Andy P says:

    book¡je: I was particularly impressed with MacT’s assessment of Bucky’s great skill of being a tie ‘to to the history and success of the organization’.

    He’s correct in a way, as in, “to the (appalling recent) history and (complete lack of) success of the organization (since he was appointed Assistant Coach)

  183. frjohnk says:

    Bohologo: I thought this was a tremendous bit of work. For draft enthusiasts, this is cat nip. Many thanks for taking the time to put together this analysis, it’s very compelling.

    Thanks, it took a few days to piece together here and there.

    As for the draft, I believe picking Ekblad is redundant with all of our D prospects. I think the best player is Bennett, he is similar sized to Mackinnon, put a pts/ game as a 17 year old at about the same pace.

    Scouting report on Bennett
    Bennett is very agile and seems to have a very quick first step. He’s extremely smooth and his acceleration was excellent. Like so many elite players, he wants the puck and he is a great puckhandler with speed. He’s also very shifty as he was able to shake defenders at least twice in the offensive zone in the first period with basically no room. His balance was also fantastic as he was on his edges a lot, at speed, yet seemed to defy gravity a few times.

    He was the top vote-getter in three categories in the Ontario Hockey League’s Eastern Conference Coaches Poll: Smartest player, best playmaker and best stick-handler. He also was voted third for best defensive forward.

    NHL Director of Central Scouting Dan Marr said. “The guys we have at the top all are in that mold, but when we look at Sam Bennett we see a guy who could potentially have a Jonathan Toews type of career.”

    He has what it takes to be a really good number 1 center. Unfortunately, he does not have the size the oilers covet.

  184. G Money says:

    mumbai max: I am sure it will be very interesting. However, I think if we sign any big UFA players, you can rest assured that they will not be value contracts. And we won’t care, if they solve one or two of our key issues.

    Oh, I recognize that. The Oilers will not get a UFA without an overpay, either in $, term, or both.

    I’m just trying to calculate a reasonable baseline for how much of an overpay it will end up being. I don’t think you can say we won’t care if it solves an issue, cap management matters tremendously in the long term.

    For example, based on my initial baseline, ROR would command a $3Mish salary for his career 0.55ppg. Add another million for his top notch two way play, and another million just because of the bloated offer sheet the Flamers sent a while back, and you get around $5M for fair value. My guess is that’s what another team will likely have to spend to get him at fair value.

    What will the Oilers have to spend to get him? If it’s $6M and 7 years – would you spend that to get a 0.55ppg 2C?

  185. G Money says:

    frjohnk,

    Great stuff.

    Sad/hilarious part of your post: your comment about the average Jr player being 6ft/188 lbs. Also happens to be the average size of the Oiler D w/o Belov and Fraser.

  186. slopitch says:

    Oilers cannot afford to focus solely on size. I think there is a chance ekblad falls to 3 but otherwise, the choice is Bennett or Draisaitl. You have to get it right. Cause if your wrong, the team in 4th will shove it our faces for years to come.

  187. Woodguy says:

    book¡je: There was far too much of “players not being used properly” this year for me to be as bullish as MacT is about the coaching staff. I was particularly impressed with MacT’s assessment of Bucky’s great skill of being a tie ‘to to the history and success of the organization’.

    I agree with all that.

    MacT raving about Bucky’s abilities as Chief Culture Officer when he was asked about his coaching was particularly galling.

    I hate that MacT says that the coaching staff is Eakins’ decision, and then weighs in on how he likes them all.

    If it’s Eakins’ decision i’d prefer him to say “It’s Eakin’s decision, so I won’t comment”

    Weighing in on the asst. coaches puts Eakins in an awful position.

    He he wants to punt any of them the first question he’ll be asked is why he disagrees with MacT.

    Terrible for MacT to cut him off at the knees here.

  188. gvblackhawk says:

    LT, do you plan on doing a breakdown of MacT’s presser from yesterday. There were several things that he said that were eyebrow-raising to say the least. It almost seems that he doesn’t see what most fans see or has convinced himself that certain flaws don’t exist. In particular, I’m referring to his assessment of the coaching staff, the pro scouting staff, and Justin Schultz.

    It just seemed his overall assessment was “No major problems; the team just needs to keep developing” and “the team was getting much better toward the end of the season”, to paraphrase. That does not jive with the underlying metrics. Is the team doomed?

  189. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    frjohnk,

    Great stuff.

    Sad/hilarious part of your post: your comment about the average Jr player being 6ft/188 lbs.Also happens to be the average size of the Oiler D w/o Belov and Fraser.

    Off the top of my head Petry is 6’3, Klef 6’3 and Marincin is 6’4, so I think you’re off a bit.

  190. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    The support for the assistants was all predicated as support for for a team that can play nice with Eakins if he find them useful. Across the board the message was not necessarily change but change if necessary. Eveyone who wanted mact to hold his cards closer may be getting their wish. ENJOY!

  191. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    frjohnk,

    Great stuff.

    Sad/hilarious part of your post: your comment about the average Jr player being 6ft/188 lbs.Also happens to be the average size of the Oiler D w/o Belov and Fraser.

    Thanks.
    Our D men will fill out. I think this summer is key to putting Petry, Schultz, Nurse, Marincin, Gernat to a daily feeding at the buffet. All of these guys are over 6 foot 2.
    I have no worries about our D men size down the road.

  192. russ99 says:

    Re: Belov:

    Hopefully MacT’s quote about defensemen yesterday was flying under the radar and he’s learned his lesson on experimenting with borderline NHL defensemen.

    I still think we need 2-3 veteran guys to mentor and push the kids and even though the FA group is weak, there are some to be had.

  193. PhrankLee says:

    I’m a fan of the prospecting system and believe wholly and hardheartedly in building through the draft. It is important. Ultimately the largest determining factor in a clubs success, in my opinion. Andy Moog is still my fondest memory as a kid. I think this year the draft pick should be traded. Hopefully MacT has a few irons in the fire that were waiting to see where Oilers were going to slot. We can add in a very significant way. Eberle has the best appeal, in my mind, as an asset that has trade-worthy value .Package deal. What kind of two way players and/or defensemen above “middling” would fix a current and long, damn long going, team vulnerability? Damn, we have had terrible defense.

  194. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: I agree with all that.

    MacT raving about Bucky’s abilities as Chief Culture Officer when he was asked about his coaching was particularly galling.

    I hate that MacT says that the coaching staff is Eakins’ decision, and then weighs in on how he likes them all.

    If it’s Eakins’ decision i’d prefer him to say “It’s Eakin’s decision, so I won’t comment”

    Weighing in on the asst. coaches puts Eakins in an awful position.

    He he wants to punt any of them the first question he’ll be asked is why he disagrees with MacT.

    Terrible for MacT to cut him off at the knees here.

    MacT Paraphrased “I want this to be absolutely clear, any decisions about the assistant coaches are Dallas’ to make. He has full autonomy there. With that said, he would be a total idiot to replace Bucky or Smith because those guys are simply awesome assistant coaches.”

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