OILERS AT DUCKS, G77 13-14

That’s entertainment! The Oilers lost a very entertaining game to the clearly superior San Jose Sharks last night, with the Panacea Line scoring at will. Taylor Hall is a wonderful talent—at 22 years-old he’s a glorious, special player. I have no idea how a hockey fan could resist the force that is Taylor Hall. The power and the glory.

Martin-Marincin-perry nelson usa sportsIn most Oiler games these days, there’s a sequence or two involving Martin Marincin making simple, wonderful defensive players. We all like to see young players enter the league and find their way, and the Oilers past frames the Marincin progression wonderfully. A stark contrast to the litany of lesser defenders, Marincin represents the ‘after’ photo for a (seemingly) myriad blue who were tried and found lacking over these years since 2006 summer.

ROOKIE OILERS BLUE SINCE 2006 SUMMER

  1. Tom Gilbert 07-08: 82, 13-20-33
  2. Justin Schultz 12-13: 48, 8-19-27
  3. Ladislav Smid 06-07: 77, 3-7-10
  4. Jeff Petry 10-11: 35, 1-4-5
  5. Martin Marincin 13-14: 38, 0-4-4
  6. Oscar Klefbom 13-14: 11, 1-2-3
  7. Taylor Chorney 09-10: 42, 0-3-3
  8. Mathieu Roy 06-07: 16, 2-0-2
  9. Taylor Fedun 13-14: 4, 2-0-2
  10. Colten Teubert 11-12: 24, 0-1-1
  11. Danny Syvret 06-07: 16, 0-1-1
  12. Theo Peckham 09-10: 15, 0-1-1
  13. Alex Plante 09-10: 4, 0-1-1
  14. Bryan Young 06-07: 15, 0-0-0
  15. Shawn Belle 10-11: 5, 0-0-0
  16. Brad Hunt 13-14: 4, 0-0-0
  17. Sebastian Bisaillon 06-07: 2, 0-0-0

That’s over eight seasons, so about two a year. Question: how many had a better 38 game debut than Marincin? I’ll give you Justin Schultz, although in a completely different way.

MARTIN MARINCIN PLAYER CARD

marincin player card april 2If this Oiler team hand picked a defenseman debut ideally suited to the needs of this team, young Marincin might be the guy. Now, we shouldn’t expect a repeat next season because history tells us defensemen don’t develop in a a straight line. However, on this day, Marincin represents hope for the future and a day when Edmonton dissolves sorties in a heartbeat.

chase profileLost in all the signings and recalls is the tryout for Greg Chase. It’s unusual for a player with junior eligibility to play in the AHL at all, and highly unusual for a teenager to have a Jordan Eberle experience at that level. I don’t know if he’ll play, but it’s a nice compliment to the young man. I still have no idea how he lasted until the 7th round in 2013.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

blunt3310 this morning, TSN 1260. Lots of chatter, scheduled to appear:

  • Ryan Batty, Copper and Blue: We’ll talk about last night’s game, the top 25 under 25 finally getting an update, and the blue.
  • Ryan Pike, Flames Nation: We’ll talk about the Flames future, and what they might do at the draft.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN: Baseball, hockey, advanced stats and their relationship to Leafs fans in the last two seasons.
  • Harrison Mooney, Pass it to Bulis and Puck Daddy. The Canucks are bringing the crazy, we’ll talk to Harrison about it.
  • Paul Almeida, Saturday Sports Extra. He’ll see Real Madrid later today, and will check in just before game time.

10-1260 on text, twitter @Lowetide_. Rock it!

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430 Responses to "OILERS AT DUCKS, G77 13-14"

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  1. Ducey says:

    From TSN:

    LeBrun: There hadn’t been any contact between Sergei Berezin, the agent for pending unrestricted free agent Andrei Markov and the Montrel Canadiens since the trade deadline but there has been now. Berezin told me on Tuesday that he met with Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin in south Florida over the weekend and they had a very positive meeting. Berezin said they may not be as far apart as people think so there’s some hope that before July 1, Markov may stay on

  2. frjohnk says:

    Draft +1
    Jordan Eberle
    GP G A PTS
    61 35 39 74

    Greg Chase
    GP G A PTS
    70 35 50 85

    Similar sized players, though Chase has more bite. Don’t think he will put up the points like Eberle, but this could definitely be a good mid 6 player. We have the high end skill, but we need players like Chase will fill the roles of guys who have skill and bite. Nice

  3. Jon K says:

    I don’t think any sane fan has ever questioned Taylor Hall’s ability or talent on the attack. He’s a special player with the puck. He could probably be the best LW in the game if certain things happened. We wait.

    Edit to add:
    “I still have no idea how he lasted until the 7th round in 2013.”

    There were suggestions that his playing style turned some hockey minds off. Something about dink-ish antics. Whatever it was, it doesn’t seem to be a concern anymore and I bet the scout who pushed the issue with Chase is pretty smug right now.

  4. oliveoilers says:

    Commentators last night kept on about how SJ is trying to avoid LA in the play-offs and would prefer STL. Silly rabbits. I still don’t think SJ is Cup material, but this is their best chance.

  5. Hammers says:

    Maybe just maybe Eakins has actually learned that Hall , RNH & Eberle need to play together . If he hasn’t McT needs to have a long talk with the man .

  6. barry.moore23 says:

    I will not give up on this team !!!!! Just throwin’ that out there. Peace, guys :)

  7. OilClog says:

    It took Eakins 75 games or so to figure out what every Oiler fan has known for the last few years. Bravo, Sir.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I don’t recall Gilbert’s rookie season. I mean I watched it, but I have the memory of a gnat so… who knows what’s in there.

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67&ds=1&f3=TOMGILBERT&f1=2013_s+2012_s+2012_p+2011_s+2010_s+2009_s+2008_s+2007_s

    That, plus the boxcars, look pretty damn nice for a debut.

    How did people not like him again… man hockey people are stupid. fuck.

    ———–
    With Chase you have to remember the Oilers were just as stupid as the rest of the league. They took a lot of players ahead of Chase:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=676017

    I really like Houck, Platzer and Betker and have an outside interest in Muir. But I don’t think I take any ahead of Chase (Houck I probably would have). And, Campbell remains mind-boggling. Over-ager with limited skill and little to no boxcars in a sub-par jr league… non-sensical (at least they waited until the right part of the draft to take him).

    So, whatever spell the league was under re: Chase, the Oil are barely absolved of it. by taking him at the butt-end of the draft.

    Perron was passed over in his first year of eligibility too. That might be a good comp in terms of draft and scout perception in draft year.

  9. Doomoil says:

    oliveoilers:
    Commentators last night kept on about how SJ is trying to avoid LA in the play-offs and would prefer STL.Silly rabbits.I still don’t think SJ is Cup material, but this is their best chance.

    What? St. Louis isn’t an option. They were talking about finishing first in the pacific to avoid playing the kings who will finish 3rd so that they can play one of the wild card teams.

  10. Pouzar says:

    If Chase is 6′ then I should be playing in the NBA at Center.

  11. frjohnk says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    ———–
    With Chase you have to remember the Oilers were just as stupid as the rest of the league. They took a lot of players ahead of Chase:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=676017

    I really like Houck, Platzer and Betker and have an outside interest in Muir. But I don’t think I take any ahead of Chase (Houck I probably would have). And, Campbell remains mind-boggling. Over-ager with limited skill and little to no boxcars in a sub-par jr league… non-sensical (at least they waited until the right part of the draft to take him).

    So, whatever spell the league was under re: Chase, the Oil are barely absolved of it. by taking him at the butt-end of the draft.

    Perron was passed over in his first year of eligibility too. That might be a good comp in terms of draft and scout perception in draft year.

    Excluding the Russians, I think Chase is the 2nd best draft pick for the oilers in 2013.

  12. Jon K says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Gilbert had a strong debut in 06-07 according to the underlying stats, as they were at the time. As I recall he was particularly proficient in the metric of defensive zone start % versus end %, moving the puck in the right direction, leading someone in the Oilogosphere to note that he was “too cool for school”. As I recall his season was ended prematurely by a cheapish headshot by Andy Sutton as Gilbert turned up ice from behind his own net.

  13. Woodguy says:

    OilClog:
    It took Eakins 75 games or so to figure out what every Oiler fan has known for the last few years. Bravo, Sir.

    Hall-RNH-Eberle is Edmonton’s most common forward line this season:

    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/edmonton-oilers/?team=edmonton-oilers&strength=EV&gametype=ALL

    Oiler fans never let actual information get in the way of their narrative.

  14. regwald says:

    Hammers:
    Maybe just maybe Eakins has actually learned that Hall , RNH & Eberle need to play together . If he hasn’t McT needs to have a long talk with the man .

    I prefer a nice short talk. It’s not working out Dallas. Thanks and good luck.

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    oliveoilers:
    Commentators last night kept on about how SJ is trying to avoid LA in the play-offs and would prefer STL.Silly rabbits.I still don’t think SJ is Cup material, but this is their best chance.

    What makes you a Sharks skeptic?

    3rd in FFClose%

    http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice?type=total&sit=5v5close

    great team. unreal. and not, unlike the Kings, Bruins, Devils (other good FFClose% teams) death to watch.

    Sharks and Hawks are the teams to champion if you want to watch entertaining, good hockey.

    Honor the Kings, Bruins, Devils… but fuck those guys. also… what the hell with Brodeur… if I was a Devils fan I’d have the pitchforks out.

    ————

    Hammers:
    Maybe just maybe Eakins has actually learned that Hall , RNH & Eberle need to play together . If he hasn’t McT needs to have a long talk with the man .

    He’s known it forever. His recent quote was something like: “wherever I put Hall, that’s the best line. Those guys (eberle and rnh) need to learn how to play without him”

    and it looks like Eakins is fighting for wins now and abandoned that development project with the undermanned roster.

  16. Halfwise says:

    Woodguy: Hall-RNH-Eberle is Edmonton’s most common forward line this season:http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/edmonton-oilers/?team=edmonton-oilers&strength=EV&gametype=ALLOiler fans never let actual information get in the way of their narrative.

    Agreed. In a lost season a coach should be criticized if he doesn’t try new things. There isn’t much to learn about how well that line plays together but there are plenty of other unanswered questions out there.

    The one I would like answered is whether Hall and Yak can make awesome happen.

  17. Jon K says:

    http://m.edmontonsun.com/2013/04/18/edmonton-oil-kings-no-fans-of-calgary-hitmen-agitator-greg-chase

    Here’s an article referencing some of the Greg Chase antics and opinions about him from scouts. Pretty funny in retrospect and now that he’s Oiler property.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk: Excluding the Russians, I think Chase is the 2nd best draft pick for the oilers in 2013.

    I think that is fair. But MOR had a rough year injury wise despite showing fairly well when healthy.

    I’m also really high on yakimov and betker, but both are miles from showing what they can be IMO.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jon K:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Gilbert had a strong debut in 06-07 according to the underlying stats, as they were at the time. As I recall he was particularly proficient in the metric of defensive zone start % versus end %, moving the puck in the right direction, leading someone in the Oilogosphere to note that he was “too cool for school”. As I recall his season was ended prematurely by a cheapish headshot by Andy Sutton as Gilbert turned up ice from behind his own net.

    thanks for the reminder.

    I wasn’t remotely involved in internet hockey then… so I don’t really have a frame of reference here. and as I said, though I watched the games that season, I couldn’t tell you a damn thing about anything about it.

    Gilbert is another one where hockey at large just does a huge face-plant. Great reminder to avoid arguments from authority re: hockey decision makers.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:
  21. oliveoilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What makes you a Sharks skeptic?

    Morning Rom. You are correct, I am a Sharks skeptic. They are a VERY good hockey team. Have been for years. The Oilers are a very bad hockey team. In the ten years that the Sharks have consecutively made the play-offs, how many times have they been to the show? Even the Canucks (curse their souls to Hades) have been a bridesmaid.

    I guess it depends on what you define as a ‘successful’ team. I mean, does a team with no viable chance of winning a cup (Nashville) consider making the play-offs a success, while a perennial big boy like the Sharks consider it a gimme? The Sharks have had the tools and the pundits predicting them as Champs for a few years now. Jumbo Joe, Little Joe and Couture have good play-off numbers, but the rest of the team are already mentally making a note to book a tee time for next round of the play-offs. You have to have those diamonds in the rough.

  22. icecastles says:

    OilClog: It took Eakins 75 games or so to figure out what every Oiler fan has known for the last few years. Bravo, Sir.

    You might want to check you facts there. They have been probably the most consistently united line all season. I guess there’s no time for analysis when there are witches to hunt.

    Being effectively in ‘garbage time’, Eakins has more recently been mixing it up to get a better sense of what each is individually capable of and try to ignite some of the underperforming players. Any other coach, I’m certain this would be seen as a wise move. Perhaps it interferes with the “Eakins is too stubborn to try anything different” narrative, so is patently ignored?

    I’m not sure if it’s short memories or revisionist history this year. It started with the notion that Kreuger was a fantastic coach… we’ve gone from ignoring the facts of last season to ignoring the facts as recently as a few games ago.

    We’re in Fantasia and The Nothing is eating away at our ability to think, getting ever closer. Soon we’ll be talking about how MacT traded Smid in his Norris-candidate year and that time where KLowe jumped into the stands and started punching out fans with his six rings.

    Edit: Line combination time here. Facts. Evidence. Statistics. The unthinking fan’s kryptonite.

    Edit 2: Looks like Woodguy beat me to the punch.

  23. OilClog says:

    Woodguy: Hall-RNH-Eberle is Edmonton’s most common forward line this season:

    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/edmonton-oilers/?team=edmonton-oilers&strength=EV&gametype=ALL

    Oiler fans never let actual information get in the way of their narrative.

    Actual narrative: They haven’t been together anywhere near enough this season.

    Actual information: if they were together for more of the season this season wouldn’t look so damn Fuggin ugly. Your favorite whipping boy Kruger atleast knew that much.

    Actual Narrative: stop trying to defend a coach that’s going to be the hill you die on.

  24. hunter1909 says:

    icecastles: We’re in Fantasia and The Nothing is eating away at our ability to think, getting ever closer. Soon we’ll be talking about how MacT traded Smid in his Norris-candidate year and that time where KLowe jumped into the stands and started punching out fans with his six rings.

    I heard the six rings put in a trade request.

  25. Caramel Obvious says:

    OilClog,

    The gracious thing to do is to admit that you are wrong.

  26. Lois Lowe says:

    OilClog: Actual narrative: They haven’t been together anywhere near enough this season.

    Actual information: if they were together for more of the season this season wouldn’t look so damn Fuggin ugly. Your favorite whipping boy Kruger atleast knew that much.

    Actual Narrative: stop trying to defend a coach that’s going to be the hill you die on.

    Actual Narrative: You’ve moved the goalposts.

    Actual Information: You speculating that the season would be different if Eakins played Hall/Nuge/Ebs together more. You have no proof.

    Actual Information: You don’t understand how arguments actually work, how data supports or refutes an argument, and you really should keep quiet until you do.

  27. icecastles says:

    OilClog: Actual narrative: They haven’t been together anywhere near enough this season.

    Don’t change your story to make it look like you’re still right. We can all scroll up to see your original post.

    Lois Lowe, Caramel Obvious,

    Exactly. I’m glad The Nothing hasn’t reached you guys/gals yet. It’s been getting hard to even read the comment threads here lately. Some voices of reason are a true breath of fresh air.

  28. CurtisS says:

    Woodguy: Hall-RNH-Eberle is Edmonton’s most common forward line this season:

    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/edmonton-oilers/?team=edmonton-oilers&strength=EV&gametype=ALL

    Oiler fans never let actual information get in the way of their narrative.

    What kinda site is this? Hilarious I have never seen % being used that doesnt add up to 100%

    What a horrible reference. Tells me nothing.

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    oliveoilers:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What makes you a Sharks skeptic?

    Morning Rom.You are correct, I am a Sharks skeptic.They are a VERY good hockey team.Have been for years.The Oilers are a very bad hockey team.In the ten years that the Sharks have consecutively made the play-offs, how many times have they been to the show?Even the Canucks (curse their souls to Hades) have been a bridesmaid.

    I guess it depends on what you define as a ‘successful’ team.I mean, does a team with no viable chance of winning a cup (Nashville) consider making the play-offs a success, while a perennial big boy like the Sharks consider it a gimme?The Sharks have had the tools and the pundits predicting them as Champs for a few years now.Jumbo Joe, Little Joe and Couture have good play-off numbers, but the rest of the team are already mentally making a note to book a tee time for next round of the play-offs.You have to have those diamonds in the rough.

    Well. I appreciate that.

    But, so much of sports is luck. The more we learn about hockey, the more powerful luck seemed to be.

    7 games is a good way to weed out luck as best as possible so the victor is a true talent. But that doesn’t mean that the loser isn’t worthy and wouldn’t have been but for a bounce of two or 30.

    There’s a kind of fatalism to always losing, but I bet it is more powerful among us chatters than it is in the actual results.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 2m
    #Oilers have recalled forward Steve Pinizzotto from the AHL’s @OKCBarons on an emergency basis. pic.twitter.com/rsSj4w97pU

    I’m guessing Pitlick can’t go.

  31. fuzzy muppet says:

    Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 35s
    Oilers injuries continue…They recall @stevepinizzotto on emergency basis to play tonight.

  32. blainer says:

    Hopefully we can keep this line together next year with the new additions and subtractions. That may be difficult though as we made need to trade one in order to make the additions happen.

  33. TheOtherJohn says:

    CurtisS: What kinda site is this? Hilarious I have never seen % being used that doesnt add up to 100%

    What a horrible reference. Tells me nothing.

    I have no doubt it tells you nothing. Do you work in the Oiler analytics department?

    To add up to 100% it would have to include R Hamilton, Acton, Smac, etc. all sorts of players that are long gone

    Not surprisingly it does add up to 100% ….. just with a lot more line and player combinations

  34. icecastles says:

    CurtisS: What kinda site is this? Hilarious I have never seen % being used that doesnt add up to 100%
    What a horrible reference. Tells me nothing.

    It actually hurt my brain reading your comment.

  35. CurtisS says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Or does it?

    They adding up just the forwards? or the skaters? wheres the goalies in this equation?

    Crazy bad reference site.

  36. CurtisS says:

    icecastles: It actually hurt my brain reading your comment.

    Awesome input on it.

    Thanks

  37. Woodguy says:

    OilClog:

    Actual narrative: They haven’t been together anywhere near enough this season.

    That’s not what you wrote.

    Actual information: if they were together for more of the season this season wouldn’t look so damn Fuggin ugly. Your favorite whipping boy Kruger atleast knew that much.

    If you think that playing them together gets this team anywhere but perhaps the Krueger Everest heights of 26th that everyone pines for, I disagree.

    Actual Narrative: stop trying to defend a coach that’s going to be the hill you die on.

    I die on no hills.

    I disagree with what Eakins has done often.

    I agree with what Eakins has done often.

    I’m not so married to an opinion to never change it in the face of compelling evidence.

  38. Derek says:

    OilClog: Actual narrative: They haven’t been together anywhere near enough this season.

    Actual information: if they were together for more of the season this season wouldn’t look so damn Fuggin ugly.</i/ Your favorite whipping boy Kruger atleast knew that much.

    Actual Narrative: stop trying to defend a coach that’s going to be the hill you die on.

    I don’t think playing Hall. RNH and Eberle together more was going to bring Dubynk and Labarbaras combined save percentage back from the dead, nor was it going to transform Ference and Justin Schultz into a legitimate top pairing.

  39. Woodguy says:

    CurtisS

    What kinda site is this? Hilarious I have never seen % being used that doesnt add up to 100%

    Go poke around the site, it shows many things that give good info on hockey teams.

    As for the 100% thing, they don’t list every single line combination during the year. The list would be 5 pages long full of lines that played together 1% or so of the entire Oilers season.

    What a horrible reference. Tells me nothing.

    I called up the Oilers most common line combinations for year, which was the subject at hand, so actually it tells you a lot.

    You can also filter it for:

    Most recent game: http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/edmonton-oilers/?team=edmonton-oilers&strength=EV&gametype=1

    Does that get close enough to 100% for you?

    Or you can filter last 3 games and last 10 games.

    You can also look at D combinations.

    Its just one function of the site and it pulls all the information from NHL game sheets.

    Usefulness of sites like this are entirely dependant on the user.

  40. oliveoilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Well. I appreciate that.

    But, so much of sports is luck. The more we learn about hockey, the more powerful luck seemed to be.

    7 games is a good way to weed out luck as best as possible so the victor is a true talent. But that doesn’t mean that the loser isn’t worthy and wouldn’t have been but for a bounce of two or 30.

    There’s a kind of fatalism to always losing, but I bet it is more powerful among us chatters than it is in the actual results.

    The best way that I have heard luck in sports put is that you still have to play the best game you can. That way, when the ball/puck/nascar bounces in a way you do not expect at least you are position to take advantage of it, be it defensively or offensively. It’s what I like about Marincin, for example. He plays hockey like a poker player. “If I play this to the boards there, an easy play for me, what’s the likelihood of the opposing team coming back at me?” A lot better than the hand grenade some players seem to have on their stick. “Oh no, I’ve lost my man, where’s the puck, did it bounce, oh shit it’s a goal.”

    Sure, a lot of this may be down to Marincin being a better player, but by being smart, he kind of makes his own luck as good players somehow manage to do.

  41. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Derek,

    Speaking of Dubs, he’s been struggling in the AHL, too. The Bulldogs aren’t a very good team, but he’s been their worst goalie.

  42. icecastles says:

    CurtisS: Awesome input on it.
    Thanks

    Okay, fair enough. That was flippant of me (Though it’s worth noting it was in response to your flippant answer). I’ll try again.

    There are a near infinite series of line ‘combinations’ during delayed or partial changes where the percentages add up to mere decimal points. There are players who are no longer on the team. There have been emergency and trial callups. The data for these is not displayed because it is statistically insignificant.

    Even if this chart were missing 20% of the total ice time, if that 20% was composed of 40 different combinations with each totaling only 0.5% of total ice time, would you feel you had a better picture? Would it impact the argument in any way, meaningful or minor?

    The answer is no and no. the ‘missing’ data is statistical noise. The 4-93-14 combination would still be at the top regardless of how much data littered the bottom.

    You and Oilclog made bold assertions that didn’t stand up to the actual facts. There’s nothing wrong with throwing out a theory and seeing if it holds up. That’s the scientific method in a nutshell and it’s a great exercise. Bold theories are often the ones that lead to bold discoveries. But we have to be willing to look at the data and see if our theory actually stands up. Otherwise, we’ve moved from the realm of science into the realm of faith, and that’s how we get witch hunts.

    The fact that this site gave you no information, and that you say you’ve never seen anything else that works this way (percentages that don’t add up to 100) says much more about your understanding of data analysis and how much time you spend looking at it than it does about the quality of the site.

    Is that a better answer?

  43. CurtisS says:

    Woodguy,

    I appreciate the extended help on the subject, but no sorry, it doesnt add up. So not sure how your reference to it can be credible for a argument.

    Sure the last game got to add up to 83% total. So are we now out 17% every game? If so which way? 17% on 75 games either way is a crazy percentage.

  44. DeadmanWaking says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Those guys (eberle and rnh) need to learn how to play without him

    Yeah, it’s not like Taylor “Iron Man” Hall ever misses a game in a critical November stretch drive.

    I wonder how many other teams routinely ice a 666 line? What are the most frequent lines in this league with an $18 M cap hit or higher?

  45. Woodguy says:

    CurtisS:
    Woodguy,

    I appreciate the extended help on the subject, but no sorry, it doesnt add up. So not sure how your reference to it can be credible for a argument.

    Sure the last game got to add up to 83% total. So are we now out 17% every game? If so which way? 17% on 75 games either way is a crazy percentage.

    Like Icecastles mentions above, the shifts that have odd combinations that aren’t repeated are just noise and ignored.

  46. Manitoba Oilers says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    RNH dosent make 6M yet

  47. CurtisS says:

    icecastles: Okay, fair enough. That was flippant of me (Though it’s worth noting it was in response to your flippant answer). I’ll try again.

    There are a near infinite series of line ‘combinations’ during delayed or partial changes where the percentages add up to mere decimal points. There are players who are no longer on the team. There have been emergency and trial callups. The data for these is not displayed because it is statistically insignificant.

    Even if this chart were missing 20% of the total ice time, if that 20% was composed of 40 different combinations with each totaling only 0.5% of total ice time, would you feel you had a better picture? Would it impact the argument in any way, meaningful or minor?

    The answer is no and no. the ‘missing’ data is statistical noise. The 4-93-14 combination would still be at the top regardless of how much data littered the bottom.

    You and Oilclog made bold assertions that didn’t stand up to the actual facts. There’s nothing wrong with throwing out a theory and seeing if it holds up. That’s the scientific method in a nutshell and it’s a great exercise. Bold theories are often the ones that lead to bold discoveries. But we have to be willing to look at the data and see if our theory actually stands up. Otherwise, we’ve moved from the realm of science into the realm of faith, and that’s how we get witch hunts.

    The fact that this site gave you no information, and that you say you’ve never seen anything else that works this way (percentages that don’t add up to 100) says much more about your understanding of data analysis and how much time you spend looking at it than it does about the quality of the site.

    Is that a better answer?

    Better yes, thanks, conclusive no.

  48. Ducey says:

    fuzzy muppet: Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 35sOilers injuries continue…They recall @stevepinizzotto on emergency basis to play tonight.

    I was excited that he might be playing his 1st NHL game, but see he played 12 games for the Fing Canucks 2 years ago.

    No NHL points though. Maybe he gets his first NHL point. At age 29, that would be sweet.

  49. Ducey says:

    CurtisS: Better yes, thanks, conclusive no.

    Your inability/ unwillingness to get things to “add up” despite the help of many on this board says more about you than the math.

  50. Clay says:

    frjohnk:
    Draft +1
    Jordan Eberle
    GP G A PTS
    6135 3974

    Greg Chase
    GP G A PTS
    7035 5085

    Similar sized players, though Chase has more bite.Don’t think he will put up the points like Eberle, but this could definitely be a good mid 6 player.We have the high end skill, but we need players like Chase will fill the roles of guys who have skill and bite.Nice

    Brad Marchand Draft +1

    57 33-47-80

    Slightly better numbers (1.4 ppg vs 1.2) , but he played in the Q where offense is easier to come by than the Dub.

    Smaller guy (Marchand is smaller, that is), but very similar playing styles.

    A Brad Marchand on the Oilers would not be a bad thing!

    Note to Oilers: 1 more year in juniors, a full year in AHL, cup of coffee in 2nd pro year, then keep him up in pro year 3. Do it the right way!

  51. CurtisS says:

    Woodguy: Like Icecastles mentions above, the shifts that have odd combinations that aren’t repeated are just noise and ignored.

    Just noise and ignored? Imagine if that 17% last game was your bank playing with money. Bonus if you made 17% but if you lost it, I’m sure you would be refuting their math.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Tom gilbert: other than the 07-08
    year is a
    2.5EVG 16EVA dman
    that gets him top 60 for EVA.

    His career versus
    1st comp 2.90 EVGA/60
    2nd comp 2.80 EVGA/60

    Why the F……..
    would we want Gilbert!

    Narative versus Fact!

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    DeadmanWaking: Yeah, it’s not like Taylor “Iron Man” Hall ever misses a game in a critical November stretch drive.

    and?

    CurtisS: Better yes, thanks, conclusive no.

    make an argument or don’t bother, seriously. fuck.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Clay: Brad Marchand Draft +1

    57 33-47-80

    Slightly better numbers (1.4 ppg vs 1.2) , but he played in the Q where offense is easier to come by than the Dub.

    Smaller guy, but very similar playing styles.

    A Brad Marchand on the Oilers would not be a bad thing!

    Note to Oilers: 1 more year in juniors, a full year in AHL, cup of coffee in 2nd pro year, then keep him up in pro year 3.Do it the right way!

    Funny thing with Chase is that with his Jan 1, 1995 birthday, he’s ineligible to play in the AHL next year.

    Born a day before and he would be.

    I would love to see him turn into even 80% of Marchand, Oilers sorely need that type of player.

    Real long shot to make the Oilers next year.

    Year after he might, but would probably do well to be seasoned in the AHL for at least a year (unless he blows the doors off)

    That means we’re looking at 16/17 before he has a chance of being a regular on the NHL roster.

  55. Lois Lowe says:

    CurtisS,

    You clearly don’t understand anything about stats, let alone advanced stats. This is not the place for you.

  56. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Tom gilbert: other than the 07-08
    year is a
    2.5EVG 16EVA dman
    that gets him top 60 for EVA.

    His career versus
    1st comp 2.90 EVGA/60
    2nd comp 2.80 EVGA/60

    Why the F……..
    would we want Gilbert!

    Narative versus Fact!

    Please stop using GAA

  57. Woodguy says:

    CurtisS: Just noise and ignored? Imagine if that 17% last game was your bank playing with money. Bonus if you made 17% but if you lost it, I’m sure you would be refuting their math.

    You really can’t be this thick.

  58. icecastles says:

    CurtisS: Just noise and ignored? Imagine if that 17% last game was your bank playing with money. Bonus if you made 17% but if you lost it, I’m sure you would be refuting their math.

    What I hear you saying here is that this might be valid info (“bonus if you made 17%”) but since it doesn’t agree with your pre-established narrative, you will refute it anyway.

    If you invest in a mutual fund and the fund goes down, do you go to your bank and demand a full refund?

    (If so, please record the conversation. There would be considerable entertainment value in it.)

    I’m aware there really are people who think this way. Part of my job is in dealing with commodity prices, which fluctuate constantly. We have one major client who, to this day, will come back and complain if a price has gone up between the time of his initial inquiry and the time of his actual investment; demanding he be given the earlier quoted prices. If that price goes down, he’s happy to pocket the difference.

    This client is very loud and very convinced his logic makes sense. We do not see it the same way. You know, reality and facts and all that.

  59. Bruce McCurdy says:

    CurtisS: Hilarious I have never seen % being used that doesnt add up to 100%

    You should check out points percentage in the NHL standings some time.

    if you want numbers that make no frigging sense, Bettman Math is king.

  60. icecastles says:

    Woodguy: You really can’t be this thick.

    You’re awesome when you’re blunt. My inner monologue when I read his comment was almost verbatim what you posted here.

    It’s kind of nice refuting a new fallacy rather than having to rehash the same ‘body language’ level arguments daily though, no?

    He’s wrong, but at least he’s wrong in a new and interesting way.

  61. icecastles says:

    Bruce McCurdy: if you want numbers that make no frigging sense, Bettman Math is king.

    I read an entire book on dark matter and was pissed that it never once mentioned Bettman math.

  62. Woodguy says:

    icecastles: You’re awesome when you’re blunt. My inner monologue when I read his comment was almost verbatim what you posted here.

    It’s kind of nice refuting a new fallacy rather than having to rehash the same ‘body language’ level arguments daily though, no?

    He’s wrong, but at least he’s wrong in a new and interesting way.

    It was a little harsh, but multiple explanations were given and the patience elastic was near breaking point.

  63. delooper says:

    CurtisS: What kinda site is this? Hilarious I have never seen % being used that doesnt add up to 100%

    Really? It seems like I rarely do. Financial reports, stock-market reports, exam scores, elasticity indices…. The only times I see percentages listed where they add up to a total of 100% are maybe on nutrition labels on food, maybe Stats Canada reports…. hmm….

  64. rickithebear says:

    Clay: A Brad Marchand on the Oilers would not be a bad thing!

    Last 3 seasons:
    Even goals;
    #4 Pacioretty 191gm 64 EVG
    #10 Ladd 206gm 58 EVG
    #15 Eberle 200Ggm 55EVG
    #23 B. Marchand 196gm 51 EVG
    #32 Hall 175gm 46 EVG
    #42 Read 189gm 44 EVG
    #52 Perron 177gm 42 EVG
    #59 Cogliano 205gm 41 EVG
    #74 Simmonds 202gm 38 EVG
    #80 Anisimov 188gm 37 EVG
    #97 Clarkson 183gm 35 EVG
    #110 Cooke 206gm 33 EVG
    #120 Callahan 180gm 32 EVG
    #129 Gagner 185gm 30 EVG
    #134 RNH 175gm 29 EVG
    his two healthy seasons 136gm 27 EVG

    Who wouldn’t like A Marchand rate at Forward.

  65. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Please stop using GAA

    Pease quit using Corsi and Chances.

    It does not include all data(affect) that leads to final result!

    Oh you only want to use partial affect for your arguement.

    What world does that work in?
    I use advanced stats!
    I use GAA which has an advanced affect from chances.
    Chances has an advanced affect from Corsi. ;)

  66. icecastles says:

    rickithebear: Pease quit using Corsi and Chances.

    Corsi and chances are determined by the skaters on the ice. GAA is determined by the goalie.

    Measuring a skater’s effectiveness by using GAA is like determining a student’s math skills by grading his English essay.

    Sure it might give you some indirect insight as to the student’s intelligence and work ethic, but the relation to the data you’re actually trying to get is tangential at best, and is already better represented in another dataset.

  67. denny33 says:

    Jon K,

    Thanks – very interesting…seems strange to have such player taken so late. Really late.

  68. russ99 says:

    blainer:
    Hopefully we can keep this line together next year with the new additions and subtractions. That may be difficult though as we made need to trade one in order to make the additionshappen.

    This brings up an really interesting point:

    If that line is intact next fall, could we actually live with “Eakins-izing” the rest of the forward group with bigger grinders, fighters and two-way (but really one-way) players?

    I’d probably want to add in Yak and Perron as keepers too, but you have to give in order to get.

    The question MacT and Eakins should want answered is does Yak fit in to that line as well as Eberle does: i.e. which one should they move?

  69. denny33 says:

    Don’t want to start counting my chickens before they hatch…but Mr. Chase seems like tonic to our forward group….

    Hockey’s Future – Talent Analysis:

    While often noted first for being a pest, Chase is not without strong hockey sense and a bit of offensive flair. He’s big with good foot speed and **never backs down from a tough battle in the gritty areas of the ice**. He’s tough to knock off the puck, has good hands and sees the ice well. His on-ice attitude is often a bone of contention for some, but his intriguing offensive upside and raw talent make him a somewhat of a hidden gem for the Oilers as a deep draft selection.

  70. russ99 says:

    denny33,

    Not after at least a year in the AHL.

    This is the kind of prospect the Blackhawks plug in to their bottom six yearly with great success. We should have more of them.

    Kind of ironic, Tambellini made a point to go out and look for that kind of player for years and yet one bubbles up from the 7th round. LOL

  71. oliveoilers says:

    Hey Guys, for those who view advanced stats as ‘white man’s magic’ here is a link that may help:

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/

    They explain it so even I can understand. I think you’ll find everything does add up. Just don’t mention zer GAA!

  72. icecastles says:

    denny33:
    Don’t want to start counting my chickens before they hatch…but Mr. Chase seems like tonic to our forward group….

    Hockey’s Future – Talent Analysis:

    While often noted first for being a pest, Chase is not without strong hockey sense and a bit of offensive flair. He’s big with good foot speed and **never backs down from a tough battle in the gritty areas of the ice**. He’s tough to knock off the puck, has good hands and sees the ice well. His on-ice attitude is often a bone of contention for some, but his intriguing offensive upside and raw talent make him a somewhat of a hidden gem for the Oilers as a deep draft selection.

    Some nice comments there and I have to agree. Scouting reports often seem to paint an overly optimistic picture, but we need a few more a**holes. Perron has been such a delight for this reason: it’s a long time since we’ve had a real hockey player who can get under the opponent’s skin and throw them off their game. Hate them on any other team, love them on ours.

  73. russ99 says:

    oliveoilers,

    GAA while on ice is actually a good stat for defensemen, as it accepts that all defensemen are on the ice for goals against, while Corsi seems to neglect that fact.

  74. oliveoilers says:

    russ99:
    oliveoilers,

    GAA while on ice is actually a good stat for defensemen, as it accepts that all defensemen are on the ice for goals against, while Corsi seems to neglect that fact.

    I was just highlighting that it’s a touchy subject ’round these parts! ;-)

  75. RexLibris says:

    To lighten the mood, I teach Flames fans how to cheer for a bad team: http://flamesnation.ca/2014/4/2/how-to-cheer-for-a-bad-team

    Spoiler alert, there is some heavy Oilers’ content. Don’t read it if you have a weak stomach or suffer from PTSD on account of this season’s experience.

  76. RexLibris says:

    I don’t know specifically what it was about Chase that scared teams away. Maybe they were worried he’d become Sean Avery 2.0, but my perception is that he is more in the line of Alex Burrows or David Perron as a scoring threat with a smirk you’d like to wipe off with the butt end of your stick.

    Seems like forever since the Oilers have had that player. I look forward to seeing him play.

    Based on the fact that he played in the WHL I think MacGregor had him ranked high and probably waited knowing that other teams were sour on him. Remember the Martin Gernat story that came out after they picked him? How they had him top 35 in his draft year but knew they could get him in the 5th and so waited? I’d bet money that Chase falls into the same category. It isn’t just identifying the players but identifying when you think you can get them at the last possible opportunity. It allows for some risk taking in the mid-rounds, which I think we have also seen from MacGregor’s group.

  77. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: Hall-RNH-Eberle is Edmonton’s most common forward line this season:

    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/edmonton-oilers/?team=edmonton-oilers&strength=EV&gametype=ALL

    Oiler fans never let actual information get in the way of their narrative.

    A regular line combination for the full season (barring injury) should be over 20%, not under 10%. (Krejci’s line for example is over 25% in Boston.) The Oilers don’t have one line over 10%. Eakins has been just throwing guys over the board with no plan, and no rhyme or reason. He has no sense how to construct lines to suit the individual players’ and the combinations’ talent. Random trial an error is coaching incompetence. Under 10% means that they have hardly been together on a regular basis.

  78. RexLibris says:

    godot10,

    I don’t think we can say that the consistency of the Boston Bruins’ line combinations are a fair comparable for the Oilers. Same goes with the Blackhawks, who have been mentioned on the air recently in a similar discussion.

    The Oilers are a bad team with young players trying to establish themselves. The Bruins and Blackhawks comparables are the goal but cannot be expected to be a part the team’s reality just yet.

  79. godot10 says:

    Lois Lowe:

    Actual Information: You speculating that the season would be different if Eakins played Hall/Nuge/Ebs together more. You have no proof.

    Team: 45 points in 48 games (all Western Conference games)
    Team: -8 in goal differential
    Hall: 2nd in scoring in the Western Conference, behind only Toews.

    If Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins are playing 15 minutes of EV strength together per game, that is 15 minutes of the game that you are not losing. You’ve shortened the game, and improved your chances of winning or getting a loser point.

    If your special teams are top quartile, that is another 8 minutes of the game you are not losing.

    That means you’ve shortened the risk of losing to mainly the remaining 37 minutes. You’ve shortened the game.

    Also, playing Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together forces the opposition coach to alter the way he deploys his players and personel. It is more disruptive to the other teams’ game plan.

    If you can hang around in the game, it gives Hall a chance to win or get the loser point for you.

    Taylor Hall is the best attacking weapon in the entire league. To not deploy him with the strongest offensive assets as a disruptive force is just plain dumb.

    And that is how one tumbles back to 29th from 24th with a superior roster, with a coach who has no clue how to deploy his roster.

  80. FastOil says:

    godot10: A regular line combination for the full season (barring injury) should be over 20%, not under 10%.(Krejci’s line for example is over 25% in Boston.) The Oilers don’t have one line over 10%.Eakins has been just throwing guys over the board with no plan, and no rhyme or reason.He has no sense how to construct lines to suit the individual players’ and the combinations’ talent.Random trial an error is coaching incompetence. Under 10% means that they have hardly been together on a regular basis.

    It’s also a way to force players to play a system. Not being familiar with other’s tendencies. I don’t think we can really tell what Eakins is up to until things stabilize on the ice. I think they are heading there. This year is a write off and it seems MacT and Eakins are using it to assess players. If it’s a cluster next year he’ll get the boot before we’ll know.

  81. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    That and the lame excuse for line matching are my biggest gripes against Eakins.

    Still, he’s a rookie coach. If he loses the hubris and learns something he could still be effective.

    I do like the idea of a “good cop/bad cop” coaching staff next year, but I’m not sure that Nelson has the rep that would make our kids not recently out of OKC and scorers really listen.

  82. icecastles says:

    godot10: Eakins has been just throwing guys over the board with no plan, and no rhyme or reason. He has no sense how to construct lines to suit the individual players’ and the combinations’ talent. Random trial an error is coaching incompetence.

    Yup, this is what happens. It’s completely random and there is no plan.

    It’s funny: whenever I see “Godot” at the top of a comment, I take a deep breath and gird myself for insanity. Yet I’m somehow still always amazed by the level of… well, Godot-ishness in the post. Like an uber-troll built from the parts of lesser trolls.

    Criticize the strategy, criticize if it’s a good idea or whether the lessons are being imparted correctly. But your posts read like a thesaurus of arbitrary and vague complaints with no evidence, analysis, or rational thought at all.

    I picture an old drunken homeless man yelling furiously at his shopping cart. Seriously.

    And I know what I’m talking about… I’m an old drunken homeless man myself. And my shopping cart has been giving me some serious lip about that dragon down the block.

  83. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: Pease quit using Corsi and Chances.

    It does not include all data(affect) that leads to final result!

    Oh you only want to use partial affect for your arguement.

    What world does that work in?
    I use advanced stats!
    I use GAA which has an advanced affect from chances.
    Chances has an advanced affect from Corsi.

    GAA is reflective of the SV% which the player has no control.

    You know this.

    Lots of your analysis is very good, but including GAA introduces randomness which skews your results and their repeat-ability.

    I’ve been asking you for this for 5 years or so, I expect you to capitulate anytime now.

    :)

  84. Andy P says:

    regwald: I prefer a nice short talk. It’s not working out Dallas. Thanks and good luck.

    And then replaces him with Bucky as HC. (Brain explodes)

  85. icecastles says:

    Andy P: And then replaces him with Bucky as HC. (Brain explodes)

    Guy across the hall just looked into my office and asked if I’m okay. Apparently maniacal laughter when all alone isn’t normal. Excellent post, sir.

  86. regwald says:

    Andy P: And then replaces him with Bucky as HC. (Brain explodes)

    No, Wayne Gretzky with Mark Messier as the co-coach.

  87. spoiler says:

    If line juggling stresses you out, may I suggest you watch a sport where changing personnel isn’t a characteristic of the game… like curling or tennis.

    ‘Cause if you continue to watch hockey (or football, or baseball, or soccer) you have bought yourself a future full of stress. And I for one don’t want a future filled with listening to y’all whine about it.

    #realismsucks

  88. John Chambers says:

    LT that was a fantastic write-up on Ekblad over on Nation.

    You’ve convinced me … Until I read the LT brochure on Reinhart.

  89. Ducey says:

    godot10: Team: 45 points in 48 games (all Western Conference games)Team: -8 in goal differentialHall: 2nd in scoring in the Western Conference, behind only Toews.If Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins are playing 15 minutes of EV strength together per game, that is 15 minutes of the game that you are not losing. You’ve shortened the game, and improved your chances of winning or getting a loser point.If your special teams are top quartile, that is another 8 minutes of the game you are not losing.That means you’ve shortened the risk of losing to mainly the remaining 37 minutes. You’ve shortened the game.Also, playing Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together forces the opposition coach to alter the way he deploys his players and personel. It is more disruptive to the other teams’ game plan.If you can hang around in the game, it gives Hall a chance to win or get the loser point for you.Taylor Hall is the best attacking weapon in the entire league. To not deploy him with the strongest offensive assets as a disruptive force is just plain dumb.And that is how one tumbles back to 29th from 24th with a superior roster, with a coach who has no clue how to deploy his roster.

    Uh, just a tought.

    Maybe Eakins is worried about what to do during the 37 minutes (and 61%) of the game you have ignored?

  90. Doc Savage says:

    Woodguy: Hall-RNH-Eberle is Edmonton’s most common forward line this season:

    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/edmonton-oilers/?team=edmonton-oilers&strength=EV&gametype=ALL

    Oiler fans never let actual information get in the way of their narrative.

    I’m not sure how compelling an argument this really is. Through the limited options on that web site (season, last 10, last 3, or last game of the current year), if we choose the last game, the Hall-Eberle-RNH combination was together 33.52% as opposed to 9.52% for the season, which matches the impression by eye, which is that they appeared to be together a whole lot more yesterday than it feels like during the season.

    Leaves lots of questions. When were they together? Was in in particular games, or just parts of many games, was it in garbage time when it didn’t matter, which is most of our season? How did it compare to Krueger’s deployment? That 9.52% could imply they were together for a few games and not at all for others, or that they were together for only portions of many games. How did it impact scoring or effectiveness when they were together than apart, and does consistently playing together improve the team’s productivity.

    I’m not asking you to do any additional research, just pointing out that there so much more to this than just showing a number like 9.52%, and implying that it really speaks volumes to anything. Of course, I’m sure there are other sites out there which can help shed more light on this, the one quoted appears to have very limited options.

  91. oliveoilers says:

    RexLibris:
    To lighten the mood, I teach Flames fans how to cheer for a bad team: http://flamesnation.ca/2014/4/2/how-to-cheer-for-a-bad-team

    Spoiler alert, there is some heavy Oilers’ content. Don’t read it if you have a weak stomach or suffer from PTSD on account of this season’s experience.

    Awesome! If Dellow is right, and bad things happen to bad teams (eventually; see Toronto) then they would do well to bookmark this article for next season. Though why you would go to the trouble of helping that bunch of degenerate ingrates, I don’t know.

  92. CurtisS says:

    icecastles: What I hear you saying here is that this might be valid info (“bonus if you made 17%”) but since it doesn’t agree with your pre-established narrative, you will refute it anyway.

    If you invest in a mutual fund and the fund goes down, do you go to your bank and demand a full refund?

    (If so, please record the conversation. There would be considerable entertainment value in it.)

    I’m aware there really are people who think this way. Part of my job is in dealing with commodity prices, which fluctuate constantly. We have one major client who, to this day, will come back and complain if a price has gone up between the time of his initial inquiry and the time of his actual investment; demanding he be given the earlier quoted prices. If that price goes down, he’s happy to pocket the difference.

    This client is very loud and very convinced his logic makes sense. We do not see it the same way. You know, reality and facts and all that.

    Sorry I wasnt talking a investment. I was talking just straight funds. I know all about investments.

    You and woodguy said the left over % are just noise and ignored. Lets compare them to cents. When them cents become part of 17% why ignore them? Thats way to large of a % to get a accurate number especially when your talking about using that math for 75 days/games.

    Anyways I’m not arguing on the subject no more. We will just agree to disagree.

  93. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ducey: Uh, just a tought.

    Maybe Eakins is worried about what to do during the 37 minutes (and 61%) of the game you have ignored?

    In fairness to Ducey, gotta give him his due re above comment: “drops mike, walks off stage”

    Well done sir

  94. CurtisS says:

    Doc Savage: I’m not sure how compelling an argument this really is.Through the limited options on that web site (season, last 10, last 3, or last game of the current year), if we choose the last game, the Hall-Eberle-RNH combination was together 33.52%as opposed to 9.52% for the season, which matches the impression by eye, which is that they appeared to be together a whole lot more yesterday than it feels like during the season.

    Leaves lots of questions.When were they together?Was in in particular games, or just parts of many games, was it in garbage time when it didn’t matter, which is most of our season?How did it compare to Krueger’s deployment?That 9.52% could imply they were together for a few games and not at all for others, or that they were together for only portions of many games.How did it impact scoring or effectiveness when they were together than apart, and does consistently playing together improve the team’s productivity.

    I’m not asking you to do any additional research, just pointing out that there so much more to this than just showing a number like9.52%, andimplying that it really speaks volumes to anything.Of course, I’m sure there are other sites out there which can help shed more light on this, the one quoted appears to have very limited options.

    Glad to see im not the only one to think this way.

  95. RexLibris says:

    oliveoilers: Awesome!If Dellow is right, and bad things happen to bad teams (eventually; see Toronto) then they would do well to bookmark this article for next season.Though why you would go to the trouble of helping that bunch of degenerate ingrates, I don’t know.

    Let’s just say I predict I’ll need a whole lot of help to mitigate some time in purgatory.

    Talking to Flames fans should shave a few years off. ;)

    Seriously though, I intend to revisit this season once the year is over and, as I am wont to do, poke a few holes in some narrative balloons. There are a lot of things that have happened down there this year that seem eerily familiar.

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    I thought the rationale for breaking up the Nuge/Hall/Eberle line was mgmt needed to see what Nuge and Ebs could do without Hall pushing the river?

    Given the move was made well after the season was in the tank, why are we faulting Eakins’ for this exactly?

    I think it’s infinitely more important that MacT & Eakins ascertain their keepers vs their discard pile, than any gains to be made by playing spoiler on an intermittent basis down the stretch.

    Big picture, Godot?

    Honestly, we’ve successfully tanked for a top pick 4 years running. You would think the peanut gallery would get how this works by now. ; )

  97. RexLibris says:

    icecastles: Guy across the hall just looked into my office and asked if I’m okay. Apparently maniacal laughter when all alone isn’t normal. Excellent post, sir.

    My advice – find a new normal because laughing maniacally at one’s desk is de rigeur around here. Really helps to ease tension.

  98. Andy P says:

    rickithebear: Pease quit using Corsi and Chances.

    It does not include all data(affect) that leads to final result!

    Oh you only want to use partial affect for your arguement.

    What world does that work in?
    I use advanced stats!
    I use GAA which has an advanced affect from chances.
    Chances has an advanced affect from Corsi.

    I’d suggest that the most important stat in the regular season is points and the most important stat in the post season is wins. Everything else is to figure out where your strengths and weaknesses are, so you can play to your strengths and reduce or eliminate your weaknesses in the event you have people that understand the appropriate stats, and a coaching staff that can correct the shortcomings and increase the strengths you have.
    Corgi’s, WOWY’s Fenwick’s and GAA’s etc. all play a part in the overall analysis of the game, but all represent ways to identify strengths and weaknesses that if addressed, should lead to success.

    One stat I’ll probably pull out one day when I have little else to do, is to chart the progress of teams in terms of % of maximum possible points scored by specified teams. Seems a fairly simple exercise if one applies a filtered pivot and some derived columns to a data dump from one of the hockeydb type of sites.

  99. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I thought the rationale for breaking up the Nuge/Hall/Eberle line up was mgmt needed to see what Nuge and Ebs could do without Hall pushing the river?

    Given the move was made well after the season was in the tank, why are we faulting Eakins’ for this exactly?

    I think it’s infinitely more important that MacT & Eakins ascertain their keepers vs their discard pile, than any gains to be made by playing spoiler on an intermittent basis down the stretch.

    Big picture, Godot?

    Honestly, we’ve successfully tanked for a top pick 4 years running. You would think the peanut gallery would get how this works by now. ; )

    The season was lost before Eakins even began playing Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together at even strength.

  100. spoiler says:

    Bag of Pucks: I thought the rationale for breaking up the Nuge/Hall/Eberle line up was mgmt needed to see what Nuge and Ebs could do without Hall pushing the river?
    Given the move was made well after the season was in the tank, why are we faulting Eakins’ for this exactly?
    I think it’s infinitely more important that MacT & Eakins ascertain their keepers vs their discard pile, than any gains to be made by playing spoiler on an intermittent basis down the stretch.
    Big picture, Godot?
    Honestly, we’ve successfully tanked for a top pick 4 years running. You would think the peanut gallery would get how this works by now. ; )

    And you’re forgetting the pump and dump of Gagner and Hemsky and Yakupov (!?), or the general struggles of Gagner this season.

  101. bendelson says:

    Old drunken homeless über-troll Godot and his sidekick Shopping Cart.
    The villians around here are second to none.

  102. Woodguy says:

    russ99:
    oliveoilers,

    GAA while on ice is actually a good stat for defensemen, as it accepts that all defensemen are on the ice for goals against, while Corsi seems to neglect that fact.

    Ok.

    For the 132423525th time.

    Can we all agree that Jonathan Toews is a very good player?

    He’s awesome and we all have him on our team?

    Ok.

    Here’s Toew’s On Ice 5v5 SV% for a 5 year stretch:

    SEASON On-Ice Sv%

    2009-2010 Season 894
    2010-2011 Season 915
    2011-2012 Season 894
    2012-2013 Season 934
    2013-2014 Season 911

    Do you really think that Toews had:

    1) Terrible defensively
    2) Average defensively
    3) Terrible defensivley
    4) Amazing defensively
    5) Meh defensively

    If you think that players affect ONSV% then you *must* think the above about Jon Toews.

    In 2011/12 Toews’ ONSV% ranks 350 out of 368 forwards who played 40 or more games.

    If you think that players directly affect thier ONSV% then you must state this:

    IN 2012/13 JONATHAN TOEWS WAS THE ONE OF THE WORST DEFENISVE FORWARDS IN THE NHL.

    Say it over and over and over again.

    If you mention that players affect ONSV% I will respond to your post with:

    YOU THINK THAT JONATHAN TOEWS WAS THE ONE OF THE WORST DEFENISVE FORWARDS IN THE NHL.

    Also:

    Eric T takes all the air out of the “PLAYERS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ONSV%” here: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/4/4487304/save-percentage-variability-regression-defense

    There is no correlation from year to year and therefore its non-repeatable and therefore its due entirely to luck.

    Stop it goddam mentioning it.

  103. Woodguy says:

    godot10: The season was lost before Eakins even began playing Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together at even strength.

    He went to 4-93-14 as soon as RNH came back at the beginning of the year.

    Moved away from it later.

  104. Woodguy says:

    godot10: A regular line combination for the full season (barring injury) should be over 20%, not under 10%.(Krejci’s line for example is over 25% in Boston.) The Oilers don’t have one line over 10%.Eakins has been just throwing guys over the board with no plan, and no rhyme or reason.He has no sense how to construct lines to suit the individual players’ and the combinations’ talent.Random trial an error is coaching incompetence. Under 10% means that they have hardly been together on a regular basis.

    You are correct.

    I was refuting the notion that he didn’t use them at all.

    Used them tons a the beginning of the year then went away from them as the season slipped away.

    Probably to get a read on the players away from Hall to see exactly what they have in RNH and Eberle.

  105. Woodguy says:

    godot10: A regular line combination for the full season (barring injury) should be over 20%, not under 10%.(Krejci’s line for example is over 25% in Boston.) The Oilers don’t have one line over 10%.Eakins has been just throwing guys over the board with no plan, and no rhyme or reason.He has no sense how to construct lines to suit the individual players’ and the combinations’ talent.Random trial an error is coaching incompetence. Under 10% means that they have hardly been together on a regular basis.

    First team I checked was SJS.

    1 line over 10%

    http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/san-jose-sharks/?team=san-jose-sharks&strength=EV&gametype=ALL

    Therefore McLellan must have been just throwing guys over the board with no plan, and no rhyme or reason.He has no sense how to construct lines to suit the individual players’ and the combinations’ talent.Random trial an error is coaching incompetence. Under 10% means that they have hardly been together on a regular basis.

    Wonder if they fire him?

    I’d hire him here.

  106. icecastles says:

    CurtisS: I know all about investments.

    I have a feeling you don’t.

    bendelson:
    Old drunken homeless über-troll Godot and his sidekick Shopping Cart.
    The villians around here are second to none.

    I move we start calling Godot ‘Shopping Cart’. Like Rex said in his (utterly brilliant) How To Cheer For A Bad Team piece, at least we can still have good nicknames.

    (By the way if you haven’t read his article on Flames Nation, it’s really, really fantastic. At least as good as anything I’ve read on Down Goes Brown.)

  107. VOR says:

    Doc Savage,

    What is actually hysterically funny is the so called stats guys jumping all over Curtiss math skills in a vicious ad hominem attack when what the site says – the one they are defending, though you raise some great points about it actually (to the extent it is valid) supports the original narrative which woodguy was probably correctly attempting to debunk.

    last game, Ebs, Hall, RNH = 33.52%
    last three games Ebs, Hall, RNH = 23.77%
    last 10 games Ebs, Hall, RNH = 8.37%
    total for season = 9.52%

    Don’t know where all of curtiss haters learned their math or reasoning skills but that is a great data set for – lord Eakins is finally getting it and using the three guys together versus how he has used them on average over the season. I still think woodguy is right that this narrative is wrong but having made the site his evidence woodguy basically proved he is wrong.

    Now of course woodguy is moving the goalposts.

  108. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: Ok.

    For the 132423525th time.

    Can we all agree that Jonathan Toews is a very good player?

    He’s awesome and we all have him on our team?

    Ok.

    Here’s Toew’s On Ice 5v5 SV% for a 5 year stretch:

    SEASONOn-Ice Sv%

    2009-2010 Season894
    2010-2011 Season915
    2011-2012 Season894
    2012-2013 Season934
    2013-2014 Season911

    Do you really think that Toews had:

    1) Terrible defensively
    2) Average defensively
    3) Terrible defensivley
    4) Amazing defensively
    5) Meh defensively

    If you think that players affect ONSV% then you *must* think the above about Jon Toews.

    In 2011/12 Toews’ ONSV% ranks 350 out of 368 forwards who played 40 or more games.

    If you think that players directly affect thier ONSV% then you must state this:

    IN 2012/13 JONATHAN TOEWS WAS THE ONE OF THE WORST DEFENISVE FORWARDS IN THE NHL.

    Say it over and over and over again.

    If you mention that players affect ONSV% I will respond to your post with:

    YOU THINK THAT JONATHAN TOEWS WAS THE ONE OF THE WORST DEFENISVE FORWARDS IN THE NHL.

    Also:

    Eric T takes all the air out of the “PLAYERS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ONSV%” here: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/4/4487304/save-percentage-variability-regression-defense

    There is no correlation from year to year and therefore its non-repeatable and therefore its due entirely to luck.

    Stop it goddam mentioning it.

    oliveoilers: I was just highlighting that it’s a touchy subject ’round these parts!

    Dude, read the my goddam previous post goddam above. It clearly goddam indicates that I didn’t want to be goddam involved in this particular goddam subject as I admittedly do not know enough goddam about it. Goddam.

  109. Woodguy says:

    Doc Savage: I’m not sure how compelling an argument this really is.Through the limited options on that web site (season, last 10, last 3, or last game of the current year), if we choose the last game, the Hall-Eberle-RNH combination was together 33.52%as opposed to 9.52% for the season, which matches the impression by eye, which is that they appeared to be together a whole lot more yesterday than it feels like during the season.

    Leaves lots of questions.When were they together?Was in in particular games, or just parts of many games, was it in garbage time when it didn’t matter, which is most of our season?How did it compare to Krueger’s deployment?That 9.52% could imply they were together for a few games and not at all for others, or that they were together for only portions of many games.How did it impact scoring or effectiveness when they were together than apart, and does consistently playing together improve the team’s productivity.

    I’m not asking you to do any additional research, just pointing out that there so much more to this than just showing a number like9.52%, andimplying that it really speaks volumes to anything.Of course, I’m sure there are other sites out there which can help shed more light on this, the one quoted appears to have very limited options.

    He infered that Eakins took 76 games to put them together.

    I pointed out that they were the line that was together most throughout the year.

    That’s pretty much it.

  110. Mesmer says:

    Woodguy,

    While I agree that ONSV% is entirely based on luck, would it not be more useful to use GAA/60 * ONSV% than to use either stat individually? (I am well aware that you despise both stats)

  111. icecastles says:

    VOR: the so called stats guys jumping all over Curtiss math skills in a vicious ad hominem attack

    Curtiss points out a “flaw” in the site which is not a flaw at all. We patiently explain it. He repeatedly (though politely – it’s worth noting that for the most part, Curtiss has been polite and engaging) failed to understand what we were driving at and pretended he had actually made a different point. We said that his failure to understand illustrated a gap in his knowledge, not a flaw in the site. Please explain how this is a “viscous ad hominem” attack.

    VOR: What is actually hysterically funny is the so called stats guys…Don’t know where all of curtiss haters learned their math or reasoning skills

    Sorry what was that about ad hominem attacks again?

    VOR: I still think woodguy is right that this narrative is wrong but having made the site his evidence woodguy basically proved he is wrong.

    You, sir, are a crazy person.

    Okay not really. But you have to admit, that was a pretty bizarre statement.

    Okay yeah, you’re a crazy person. Must be some kind of Oilers fan. Those people are beyond help.

  112. Acumen says:

    A couple interesting articles in tandem:

    First, an article on the extension of Michel Therien put out yesterday with speculation that the fact he was extended before Subban may be telling:
    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/latest-news/2014/4/1/5568560/therrien-contract-extension-canadiens-coach

    Next, an article put out today about Therien’s deployment of Subban in last night’s game–as in, he wasn’t deploying him and there was absolutely no discernable reason not to:
    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2014/4/2/5573676/pk-subban-michel-therrien-canadiens-coaching

    If Subban is a man on the move this summer then I hope MacT is very very loud in Bergevin’s ear. He would be that mythical #1 D that never shakes loose people are always talking about.

  113. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woodguy: There is no correlation from year to year and therefore its non-repeatable and therefore its due entirely to luck.

    B-B-B-But what about Tom Gilbert?

    [Some of you younguns may not recollect that Tom Gilbert was Jeff Petry before Jeff himself took over the role]

  114. vangolf says:

    icecastles: Curtiss points out a “flaw” in the site which is not a flaw at all. We patiently explain it. He repeatedly (though politely – it’s worth noting that for the most part, Curtiss has been polite and engaging) failed to understand what we were driving at and pretended he had actually made a different point. We said that his failure to understand illustrated a gap in his knowledge, not a flaw in the site. Please explain how this is a “viscous ad hominem” attack.

    Sorry what was that about ad hominem attacks again?

    As someone who doesn’t have a dog in this fight, this whole comment section comes off as very HF Board-ish. I’ll chalk it up to a frustrating season taking its toll, but mutual respect and, by extension this site, took a blow today.

  115. spoiler says:

    godot10: The season was lost before Eakins even began playing Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together at even strength.

    You have no idea if this is correct, do you? You’re just puking up a narrative, at all costs, including fact… or are you purposefully lying?

    Either way, that’s called trolling.

    Go look at the game sheets after Nuge returns from injury… he plays almost exclusively with 4 and 14.

    Your posts and thoughts have become completely unreliable and untrustworthy.

  116. spoiler says:

    Mr DeBakey: B-B-B-But what about Tom Gilbert?
    [Some of you younguns may not recollect that Tom Gilbert was Jeff Petry before Jeff himself took over the role]

    I thought Tom Gilbert was Tom Poti (but we were hoping for him to be Eric Brewer).

  117. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    VOR:
    Doc Savage,

    What is actually hysterically funny is the so called stats guys jumping all over Curtiss math skills in a vicious ad hominem attack when what the site says – the one they are defending, though you raise some great points about it actually (to the extent it is valid) supports the original narrative which woodguy was probably correctly attempting to debunk.

    last game, Ebs, Hall, RNH = 33.52%
    last three games Ebs, Hall, RNH = 23.77%
    last 10 games Ebs, Hall, RNH = 8.37%
    total for season = 9.52%

    Don’t know where all of curtiss haters learned their math or reasoning skills but that is a great data set for – lord Eakins is finally getting it and using the three guys together versus how he has used them on average over the season. I still think woodguy is right that this narrative is wrong but having made the site his evidence woodguy basically proved he is wrong.

    Now of course woodguy is moving the goalposts.

    Start over.

    premise: use facts and make an argument. that should be the goal here, right?

    An assertion was made, let’s see how it went:

    Hammers:
    Maybe just maybe Eakins has actually learned that Hall , RNH & Eberle need to play together . If he hasn’t McT needs to have a long talk with the man .

    OilClog:
    It took Eakins 75 games or so to figure out what every Oiler fan has known for the last few years. Bravo, Sir.

    To sum up: Eakins is too stupid to figure out that RNH-Hall-Eakins works. clap, clap he finally got it.

    What is this VOR? what is it?

    It’s this: a conjecture, a strong prejudicial one, but a conjecture. No facts, no argument, no analysis.

    Now, as IceCastles pointed out… conjectures are fine. Even one’s without facts and arguments.

    But, once they’ve stirred the work of looking for facts, doing analysis and making arguments… you’ve got to fucking hold down the fort and make a credible case.

    The facts say: Eakins has put them together before and pretty damn often. Most of their minutes are together:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1535&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

    Also, we know that Eakins has explicitly stated that he wasn’t putting them together for a rational reason (he wanted RNH and Eberle to work it out without Hall as a safety net). Now, one can disagree with that reasoning… but you can’t ALSO claim that Eakins is unaware that the RNH-Hall-Eberle line works.

    We’ve also speculated that MacT/Eakins are trying to see how RNH, Eberle handle being without Hall to gauge the true talent of his roster going into the offseason.

    All of this is very far from the things you are defending here, which is simply trolling.

  118. VOR says:

    The problem icecastles is that if you actually study the site for a while all of Doc Savage’s questions and a lot more come to mind, far more than enough to say it is flawed. In fact, it is hard to believe that 17% of all line combinations go missing and it doesn’t matter. Sorry, mathematically and logically that is flawed. Curtiss is right a good rule of thumb is that if noise exceeds signal then the signal is unreliable.

    “You clearly don’t understand anything about stats, let alone advanced stats. This is not the place for you.” Lois Lowe

    “You really can’t be this thick.” Woodguy

    Those are both ad hominem attacks because they don’t use evidence at all. I wasn’t accusing you. Though I do wonder why you chose to respond.

  119. oliveoilers says:

    Okay, okay, paint me ‘confused’ as usual. I’m seeing here, and it’s probably just me, that when analytical stats do not correctly predict what a player is capable of, then it’s obviously ‘luck’. So, when mathematical data does not do correlate to expectations, we’re back to dragging stones into circles and chanting to idols while painting our bodies with woad? I thought the whole point of advanced analytics was to disassociate from the ‘seen him good’.

    In fact, I thought the ethos of this site was: You are what the numbers say you are. So, the guys who are sick of the RK lovers because his numbers were starting to trend down alarmingly; maybe he was just unlucky?

  120. spoiler says:

    oliveoilers: Dude, read the my goddam previous post goddam above. It clearly goddam indicates that I didn’t want to be goddam involved in this particular goddam subject as I admittedly do not know enough goddam about it. Goddam.

    You know that Woodguy was replying to Russ99 and not you, right?

  121. icecastles says:

    Acumen,

    Acumen, please rewrite this with the appropriate level of rage, hyperbole and defensiveness. Your reasonable tone and interesting links are out of sync with today’s rage fest.

    Seriously though, the Subban story has been absolutely fascinating. If he were Russian, the press would have used up their annual quota of “enigmatic” references in his first month in the NHL. I suppose it’s the frustrating mix of outstanding hockey player with major personality issue, and how much BS you tolerate to keep the player, and where the tipping point is with a potential distraction.

    This is all hearsay from someone completely outside the story and who has only been following it casually at best, but I get the sense that Penalty Kill Subban could do his career a big favour by dialinig in the attitude and learning that hockey doesn’t dig the prima donna approach.

    There should be absolutely no question at all about a guy with his skill being locked up long term.

  122. OilClog says:

    Woodguy: He infered that Eakins took 76 games to put them together.

    I pointed out that they were the line that was together most throughout the year.

    That’s pretty much it.

    They have not been “together” pretty much throughout the year.

    Maybe for 5 minutes here and 5 minutes there, has anything other then the embarrassing losing been the only consistency with Eakins this season.. inconsistency, and losing.

    We’ve all be saying! Please for the love of Gord let them play together! .. Because they’ve been playing together?

    Why every game are we wondering who the hell is playing with who? We don’t need stats for that.. We comment endlessly about who is playing with who.

    I appreciate advanced stats, I appreciate all stats. But at the same time I’d like to think I’m a pretty good judge of what I’m watching when the good old game is on. I have 30yrs worth of watching this game with my two 21/20 vision eyes. I know, LT has 100 and counting and you yourself WG have close to 75.. So you can’t tell me what you’re seeing on the ice this season resembles hockey!

    I seriously think if there was no coach at all and these players were left to defend for themselves on the ice this season they would look more damn determined and uniformed out there.

  123. icecastles says:

    VOR: it is hard to believe that 17% of all line combinations go missing and it doesn’t matter. Sorry, mathematically and logically that is flawed. Curtiss is right a good rule of thumb is that if noise exceeds signal then the signal is unreliable.

    17% is less than 50%. It is definitely less than 83%.

    Or as OliveOilers put it in my second favourite post of the day, goddamnit goddamn this goddamn statistical goddamn moving goddamn goalposts enigmatic goddamn corgis pissing on my goddamn lawn.

  124. Romulus Apotheosis says:
  125. Mesmer says:

    VOR,

    OMG! This again? What you are arguing is simply semantics – a distraction. You are arguing he data which proves the original statement wrong is invalid because it doesn’t add up to 100%, even though there is absolutely zero chance that the inclusion of that 17% would prove it right.

    The initial assertion was that Eakins has resisted playing the 6s together. The data shows that simply is not the case. The missing 17% would only serve to further support Woodguy’s case, and yet you seem to assert otherwise.

  126. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I thought the rationale for breaking up the Nuge/Hall/Eberle line was mgmt needed to see what Nuge and Ebs could do without Hall pushing the river?

    Given the move was made well after the season was in the tank, why are we faulting Eakins’ for this exactly?

    I think it’s infinitely more important that MacT & Eakins ascertain their keepers vs their discard pile, than any gains to be made by playing spoiler on an intermittent basis down the stretch.

    Big picture, Godot?

    Honestly, we’ve successfully tanked for a top pick 4 years running. You would think the peanut gallery would get how this works by now. ; )

    That’s a good summary of it.

  127. VOR says:

    I said I thought Woodguy’s contention was right. But that I thought it was hilarious that curtiss haters jumped on him for attacking the site while not getting it supported the other side of the argument far more than woodguy’s. Yet that didn’t stop the haters from hating. Curtiss was attacked based on questioning one site and if you only have reference to that site, the one woodguy chose remember, it actually says that other teams on the same site their 1st lines can get as much as 25% together over the year. It also said that RNH, Ebs, Hall get 9.52. It also says, and none of you can dispute the basic fact much as you try and twist to get away from the the facts that the site all says 33.52% last night and 23.77% over the last 3 games which is more like some other teams on the same site were using their first line.

    I was defending curtiss and suggesting his attack on the site rather than showing he was mathematically illiterate suggested there were real issues. I was not attacking woodguy’s argument. Which makes your response a tangent and possibly irrelevant. By dragging in other sites that support woodguy’s position you are totally missing my point.

  128. CurtisS says:

    Woodguy: He went to 4-93-14 as soon as RNH came back at the beginning of the year.

    Moved away from it later.

    2 games :) so your right but wrong.

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=685885
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=686305
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=686490

    In Toronto the 3rd game they were already split up and the experimenting has begun.

    They were not put back together until Nov 13 against the Stars. at this point their record was 4-13, the season was lost.

    They then played together for 10 games where their record was 5-5. Then split up again.

    Anyways thought should know.

  129. Woodguy says:

    VOR:
    Doc Savage,

    What is actually hysterically funny is the so called stats guys jumping all over Curtiss math skills in a vicious ad hominem attack when what the site says – the one they are defending, though you raise some great points about it actually (to the extent it is valid) supports the original narrative which woodguy was probably correctly attempting to debunk.

    last game, Ebs, Hall, RNH = 33.52%
    last three games Ebs, Hall, RNH = 23.77%
    last 10 games Ebs, Hall, RNH = 8.37%
    total for season = 9.52%

    Don’t know where all of curtiss haters learned their math or reasoning skills but that is a great data set for – lord Eakins is finally getting it and using the three guys together versus how he has used them on average over the season. I still think woodguy is right that this narrative is wrong but having made the site his evidence woodguy basically proved he is wrong.

    Now of course woodguy is moving the goalposts.

    *sigh*

    Posit: “It took Eakins 75 games or so to figure out what every Oiler fan has known for the last few years. Bravo, Sir.”

    Answer: “No, its actually been the line that has been together the most”

    That’s it.

    Then:

    “Hey it doesn’t add up 100%”

    “That’s because the myriad of line combos that are 1% or less would run 5 pages and don’t really tell you aything”

    “But its not 100%”

    “Yes, but it doesn’t matter”

    “Yes it does”

    “Ok then, been fun”

    Where the hell am I moving the goalposts.

    I didn’t set any goal posts.

    Keep smiling.

  130. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Great news… JW was right!

    Oklahoma City Barons ‏@okcbarons 1m
    In addition to signing Mitch Holmberg to an ATO, the #OKCBarons have signed him to an AHL SPC for 2014-15.

  131. Woodguy says:

    CurtisS: 2 gamesso your right but wrong.

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=685885
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=686305
    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=686490

    In Toronto the 3rd game they were already split up and the experimenting has begun.

    They were not put back together until Nov 13 against the Stars. at this point their record was 4-13, the season was lost.

    They then played together for 10 games where their record was 5-5. Then split up again.

    Anyways thought should know.

    A better place to see who plays with who is the games reports at extraskater.com

    Click on the game.

    Then scroll down and you can sort player TOI with team mates (an opponents)

    Here’s last game:

    http://www.extraskater.com/game/2014-04-01-oilers-sharks

  132. Acumen says:

    icecastles:
    Acumen,

    Acumen, please rewrite this with the appropriate level of rage, hyperbole and defensiveness. Your reasonable tone and interesting links are out of sync with today’s rage fest.

    Seriously though, the Subban story has been absolutely fascinating. If he were Russian, the press would have used up their annual quota of “enigmatic” references in his first month in the NHL. I suppose it’s the frustrating mix of outstanding hockey player with major personality issue, and how much BS you tolerate to keep the player, and where the tipping point is with a potential distraction.

    This is all hearsay from someone completely outside the story and who has only been following it casually at best, but I get the sense that Penalty Kill Subban could do his career a big favour by dialinig in the attitude and learning that hockey doesn’t dig the prima donna approach.

    There should be absolutely no question at all about a guy with his skill being locked up long term.

    Hah! I love how on this site, arguing the integrity of statistical ranges and laying out the principles of logical debate is considered a rage fest.

    Personally, I think the narrative skews everything when it comes to Subban. He might as well BE a Russian, the way he’s discussed in ‘hockey talk.’ Looking at his advanced stats, his career trajectory, and his game by eye, I don’t see him as a very big step down from Doughty, and Doughty is bar none my favorite player in the league. Subban would be a Godsend to this team. He’d immediately be our best D-man since Pronger and, excepting him, since Coffey.

    I think the attitude thing is severely overstated along with the defensive deficiencies, but I know he’s a polarizing figure.

    Here’s another great article that gets at the heart of what I’m talking about: http://canucksarmy.com/2014/2/17/the-reports-of-p-k-subban-s-demise-have-been-greatly-exaggerated

  133. Clay says:

    This is the best damn website on the Al Gore. Never a dull moment!

  134. Acumen says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: this is an April Fools joke.

    but the problems remain in MTL.

    Damn.

    *whoooosh*

    Sorry, folks. As you were.

    I hate being a sports fan on April Fools. I always forget about it.

    I blame this site for spoiling me with the comments section to the point where I never read them anywhere else.

  135. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Great news… JW was right!

    Oklahoma City Barons ‏@okcbarons1m
    In addition to signing Mitch Holmberg to an ATO, the #OKCBarons have signed him to an AHL SPC for 2014-15.

    Well that’s pretty sweet.

  136. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: You are correct.

    I was refuting the notion that he didn’t use them at all.

    Used them tons a the beginning of the year then went away from them as the season slipped away.

    Probably to get a read on the players away from Hall to see exactly what they have in RNH and Eberle.

    The problem with that is Eakins admitted he didn’t look at any games last year and wanted to make his own judgement . Speaking for myself I came to the conclusion 2 years ago the best way to use those 3 players is together and the “TEAM” will get the best value from all 3 of them . Eakins problem was and has been getting full value out of ” Gags ” , with Perron , Yak & Hemmer . Throw Arco into the mix and we never really new what we would get. I for one felt they should have used Hemmer with Gordon & Perron then we could of had 2 strong lines barring injury . Not sure how many people out there have taken over a company as a manager but one of the first things you do is check the results of the staff you have then evaluate , then fire and replace those that need it . . I think Eakins was wrong in not watching games from before he was hired but that’s what arrogance gets you .

  137. spoiler says:

    Acumen: I hate being a sports fan on April Fools. I always forget about it.

    That’s because every day as an Oiler’s fan is April Fools’ Day. How are you supposed to recognize the real one when it comes along?

    Sorry… low hanging fruit there, but couldn’t resist.

  138. godot10 says:

    spoiler: You have no idea if this is correct, do you?You’re just puking up a narrative, at all costs, including fact…or are you purposefully lying?

    Either way, that’s called trolling.

    Go look at the game sheets after Nuge returns from injury… he plays almost exclusively with 4 and 14.

    Your posts and thoughts have become completely unreliable and untrustworthy.

    The trio get split up after a couple of games after Nugent-Hopkins return, and Eberle and Arcobello end up playing a lot together.

    Gagner got a lot of Hall when he first came back.

    The Oilers have not run any consistent line this year. To say that there has been any consistent intention to play Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together this year is somewhat absurd.

  139. hunter1909 says:

    icecastles: 17% is less than 50%. It is definitely less than 83%.

    In other words, you guys are willing to trade Crimea for Yanukovych.

  140. Lowetide says:

    godot10: The trio get split up after a couple of games after Nugent-Hopkins return, and Eberle and Arcobello end up playing a lot together.

    Gagner got a lot of Hall when he first came back.

    The Oilers have not run any consistent line this year.To say that there has been any consistent intention to play Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together this year is somewhat absurd.

    Top line of Nuge-Hall-Ebs ran pretty consistently through the season, no? I’d say they’ve been a 1line together for as much or more than normal. jmo.

  141. Lowetide says:

    OilClog: They have not been “together” pretty much throughout the year.

    Maybe for 5 minutes here and 5 minutes there, has anything other then the embarrassing losing been the only consistency with Eakins this season.. inconsistency, and losing.

    We’ve all be saying! Please for the love of Gord let them play together! .. Because they’ve been playing together?

    Why every game are we wondering who the hell is playing with who? We don’t need stats for that.. We comment endlessly about who is playing with who.

    I appreciate advanced stats, I appreciate all stats. But at the same time I’d like to think I’m a pretty good judge of what I’m watching when the good old game is on. I have 30yrs worth of watching this game with my two 21/20 vision eyes. I know, LT has 100 and counting and you yourself WG have close to 75.. So you can’t tell me what you’re seeing on the ice this season resembles hockey!

    I seriously think if there was no coach at all and these players were left to defend for themselves on the ice this season they would look more damn determined and uniformed out there.

    They have been together, for a lot of the season.

  142. icecastles says:

    Clay: This is the best damn website on the Al Gore. Never a dull moment!

    Damn right. This thread today is seriously the most fun I’ve had in ages with people I’ve never met (different story for people whose names I’ve simply never learned…)

    As Acumen said, where else can we call an argument over statistical analysis a rage fest?

    Every once in a while the threads devolve to a point where I can’t be bothered to comment, but when I look around at other sites, this site has the best and most interesting commentary, and second place isn’t even close.

  143. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    The problem icecastles is that if you actually study the site for a while all of Doc Savage’s questions and a lot more come to mind, far more than enough to say it is flawed. In fact, it is hard to believe that 17% of all line combinations go missing and it doesn’t matter. Sorry, mathematically and logically that is flawed. Curtiss is right a good rule of thumb is that if noise exceeds signal then the signal is unreliable.

    “You clearly don’t understand anything about stats, let alone advanced stats. This is not the place for you.” Lois Lowe

    “You really can’t be this thick.” Woodguy

    Those are both ad hominem attacks because they don’t use evidence at all. I wasn’t accusing you. Though I do wonder why you chose to respond.

    Is there a full moon?

  144. hunter1909 says:

    Interesting how Lars Eller has been playing badly after dissing the mighty oilers. If MacT is as smart as his fans think, he might trade for this regular sized NHL centre.

  145. Caramel Obvious says:

    I go away for a couple of hours and I see that some people have doubled down on the stupid.

    It doesn’t get any more complicated than what Ducey said.

    1) The Godot plan of trying to win with one line is a terrible, terrible, idea. Everyone knows this.
    2) So Eakins breaks up his best three players in an attempt to have more than one good line. This is obviously a good idea.
    3) Eberle and Hopkins struggle without Hall. Eakins puts them back periodically. This works sometimes. Other times it doesn’t.
    4) Eakins continues to look for line combinations that work. Difficult when you have only one player you can count on.

    This is what happened. This is obviously what happened. These were also, again quite obviously, the right moves for the coach to make. This team has been a one line team all year. That’s not the coaches fault, that’s the problem he’s trying to overcome.

  146. spoiler says:

    godot10: The trio get split up after a couple of games after Nugent-Hopkins return, and Eberle and Arcobello end up playing a lot together.
    Gagner got a lot of Hall when he first came back.
    The Oilers have not run any consistent line this year. To say that there has been any consistent intention to play Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together this year is somewhat absurd.

    But you didn’t say that. You said this:

    godot10: The season was lost before Eakins even began playing Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle together at even strength.

  147. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Well that’s pretty sweet.

    Magic move by MacT/Bob Green.

    no spot taken on the 50-man. But the Oilers have great look at the player and build a relationship. If he turns out, you sign him to an NHL contract. no problem

    no risk. all reward. amazing.

    This is smart hockey mgt. finally.

  148. VOR says:

    mesmer,

    If you put the 17% all as time played by RNH, Ebs, and Hall it would prove they were being used typically for a first line (in other data from the same site).

    If you assign it all to any single other line combination you get RNH, Ebs and Hall out of being the most common line combination and disprove woodguy’s point.

    You are assuming you understand why it is missing and how the 17% would be distributed.

  149. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: He went to 4-93-14 as soon as RNH came back at the beginning of the year.

    Moved away from it later.

    Here. This is what happened.

  150. blainer says:

    Little late to the party. Got to say the last few posts have been most entertaining. I find it interesting the different points of view. The one thing we all have in common is hoping the oilers can start doing things right, and that includes the coaching no matter what side of the debate you are on. I am not one for deep analytics but do understand most of them. I will offer my take on the lines as I too have only missed maybe three games this year. I personally have been too busy yelling at the tv.. and too pissed on how poorly they all have played defensively to really even get to the point of how the coach is running the lines. I can say this is the first time in years that has happened because most other years I was really pissed at the coaches for not running the lines I wanted. Just goes to show how bad we defensively…

  151. icecastles says:

    hunter1909: In other words, you guys are willing to trade Crimea for Yanukovych.

    Russia seems to own both of them now. And when you take a long view, they were both always kind of secretly Russian. And they’re both kind of cesspools.

    Goddamn I fucking hate Yanukovych. Truly, passionately hate. Was trying to edit an interview with him for Kyiv Post and could barely get through it, he infuriates me so badly.

    Fuck.

    Edit:
    Fuck. Fucking fuck. Now I’m in a bad mood. Maybe Shopping Cart can say something to get my mind back on hockey. I need this distraction.

  152. Lowetide says:

    This thread is a train wreck. Honestly. JESUS. Okay:

    My recall is that the Oilers moved Hall to C at the start of the season, but that Nuge arrived back early and the Nuge-Hall-Eberle line reformed and did a live album. This was followed by a studio album, a North American tour and then another studio album before the world tour.

    Eakins broke them up later on to increase scoring, but the line has been together for half the season at least.

    No?

  153. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    VOR: Curtiss was attacked based on questioning one site and if you only have reference to that site,

    He didn’t question it. He dismissed it out of hand. Despite this people explained why his grounds for dismissing it were misplaced.

    simple story.

  154. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    This thread is a train wreck. Honestly. JESUS. Okay:

    My recall is that the Oilers moved Hall to C at the start of the season, but that Nuge arrived back early and the Nuge-Hall-Eberle line reformed and did a live album. This was followed by a studio album, a North American tour and then another studio album before the world tour.

    Eakins broke them up later on to increase scoring, but the line has been together for half the season at least.

    No?

    It’s pretty simple really. And yes. Your recall is matched by the various fact-checking sites.

  155. CurtisS says:

    Lowetide,

    No game 3 vs the devils the 1st line was put together, Nuges first game back. They played together the next game and then were split up before the Toronto game. They played 2 games at the start of the year together then didnt get back to playing together till Novemeber 13th against the stars.

  156. godot10 says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    I go away for a couple of hours and I see that some people have doubled down on the stupid.

    It doesn’t get any more complicated than what Ducey said.

    1) The Godot plan of trying to win with one line is a terrible, terrible, idea.Everyone knows this.
    2) So Eakins breaks up his best three players in an attempt to have more than one good line.This is obviously a good idea.
    3) Eberle and Hopkins struggle without Hall.Eakins puts them back periodically.This works sometimes.Other times it doesn’t.
    4) Eakins continues to look for line combinations that work.Difficult when you have only one player you can count on.

    This is what happened.This is obviously what happened.These were also, again quite obviously, the right moves for the coach to make.This team has been a one line team all year.That’s not the coaches fault, that’s the problem he’s trying to overcome.

    The Oilers had 45 points in 48 games against the Western Conference last year. -8 in goal differential. 24th place, hanging with the pack. The one line strategy was clearly a terrible idea! -).

    The shot metrics are going to net out to about the same. The goal differential is something like -60. 61 points in 75 games. Fell out of the pack by the end of October.

    And arguably the roster was worse last year.

  157. Mesmer says:

    VOR,

    That is the point Vor. If it were all assigned to one line then it would appear somewhere in the top 10 most used combinations and not hidden outside the data set you see. The 17% is made up of a myriad of different line combinations, none of which is greater than 2.32%.

    If you want to discuss WHY the Oilers top line combination accounts for a much lower percent of TOI together than top lines on other teams, I think that would make for some interesting discussion. The other argument is simply (from my perspective) a straw man argument distracting from the statistical fact that Hall, Nuge, Ebs is the most used line combination on the Oilers this season

  158. icecastles says:

    godot10,

    Do you just copy and paste this from thread to thread? (Not a dig: I am honestly wondering if that’s what you do).

  159. hunter1909 says:

    It must be weird being new, and trying to work for a company – who’s president, general manager and incompetent assistants plus half the sales team are driven by a driving ambition to fool the owner, instead of running the business.

  160. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Acumen: Damn.

    *whoooosh*

    Sorry, folks. As you were.

    I hate being a sports fan on April Fools. I always forget about it.

    I blame this site for spoiling me with the comments section to the point where I never read them anywhere else.

    I hate april fools jokes. useless. bad jokes too.

  161. Lowetide says:

    CurtisS:
    Lowetide,

    No as game 3 vs the devils the 1st line was put together, Nuges first game back.They played together the next game and then were split up before the Toronto game. They played 2 games at the start of the year together then didnt get back to playing together till Novemeber 13th against the stars.

    And they played together after that for a long stretch of the season. I know this has to be true, the wowy’s suggest half a season:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1535&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

  162. oliveoilers says:

    icecastles: 17% is less than 50%. It is definitely less than 83%.

    Or as OliveOilers put it in my second favourite post of the day, goddamnit goddamn this goddamn statistical goddamn moving goddamn goalposts enigmatic goddamn corgis pissing on my goddamn lawn.

    Those corgis were on my lawn again? Goddam! More goddam dead grass pee stains.

  163. Caramel Obvious says:

    godot10,

    Is this what we are reduced to? Last year’s team didn’t make the playoffs. Hell, Hopkins had four points last night and they still lost the game.

    In any case I like the line as much as anyone. And maybe the synergy of the line means they should be together. However, as this team is constructed they can’t win with only one line. Considering this, I am glad that the coach was willing to try other combinations to see if he can coax two good lines out of spare parts. That plan, at least, has a chance of working.

  164. Ducey says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Magic move by MacT/Bob Green.no spot taken on the 50-man. But the Oilers have great look at the player and build a relationship. If he turns out, you sign him to an NHL contract. no problemno risk. all reward. amazing. This is smart hockey mgt. finally.

    Yes. Great move. Arcobello v.2. (which Tambo or someone never really got credit for)

  165. bendelson says:

    icecastles: …that time where KLowe jumped into the stands and started punching out fans with his six rings.

    I was there. It wasn’t pretty. With tears rolling down his cheeks, KLowe keep screaming “I’m sorry Batman!” as he tossed haymakers. I’ll never forget it. Crazy.

  166. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    godot10,

    Is this what we are reduced to?Last year’s team didn’t make the playoffs.Hell, Hopkins had four points last night and they still lost the game.

    In any case I like the line as much as anyone.And maybe the synergy of the line means they should be together.However, as this team is constructed they can’t win with only one line. Considering this, I am glad that the coach was willing to try other combinations to see if he can coax two good lines out of spare parts.That plan, at least, has a chance of working.

    Agreed. I think it’s very easy to point the finger after last night, but there’s an ebb and flow to a season. The idea that Eakins broke up a line that was scoring 10 points a game in an effort to get more balanced scoring isn’t correct.

    In the ebb and flow of a season, a coach usually breaks up aline because THEY are also struggling, or not performing at previous levels.

  167. Mr DeBakey says:

    From what I can see
    The line combinations this season have been about Gagner & Yakupov
    Eakins has been trying to put together combos that work with those two.

    Instead, he should’ve kept the Golden Boys together as discussed above,
    And..
    In 130 ES minues with Arcobello, Hemsky had a 60 GF%
    In 140 ES minutes with Perron, Hemsky had a GF% of 58.3.
    Those three should’ve been line 2

    Gordon with Smyth & Jones
    Gagner with Yak & Mr Better-Than-Larocque

    And start planning the parade

  168. hunter1909 says:

    icecastles,

    Sorry about that. I hoped shedding that idiot was good enough, because he was such terrible, bad news as a national leader.

    Knowing very little about history in the eastern part of Europe, Crimea never looked particularly Ukrainian to me to start with.

    Incredible, being able to take to the streets and kick out a corrupt leader. Just like that!

    (Dreaming of tire barricades outside Rexall Place)

  169. Lowetide says:

    One thing I believe we could be critical about in regard to Eakins is staying too long with Gagner on that 2line. When Arco left the line it flagged with Gags. Had he brought Gagner along slowly, including healthy scratches and maybe some rehab time in OKC, I think it might have made a difference.

    Obviously didn’t cost them a playoff spot, but if did have an impact imo.

  170. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Neal (@tweetneal) is suggesting that a buy out would be necessary for another NHL team to poach Holmberg, which is relatively simple and quite common.

    I don’t think this is a concern at all though. If he’s signed on with the Barons him and the Oilers have started a relationship, unless it goes sour, or Holmberg feels blocked he’s probably be happy to have the Oilers match whatever offer another team makes.

  171. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. I think it’s very easy to point the finger after last night, but there’s an ebb and flow to a season. The idea that Eakins broke up a line that was scoring 10 points a game in an effort to get more balanced scoring isn’t correct.

    In the ebb and flow of a season, a coach usually breaks up aline because THEY are also struggling, or not performing at previous levels.

    I agree that one 10pt game isn’t enough to yell “why weren’t they kept together.” But here’s the rub. Some of us didn’t expect Gagner and Yak to be so terrible and DE to try to turn Hemmer into Hendricks. Could of had a respectable enough 2nd line to be able to keep them together. As you said though, that’s in a perfect world where people are doing what they are supposed to. Otherwise, out comes the McBlender.

  172. Pouzar says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    I go away for a couple of hours and I see that some people have doubled down on the stupid.

    3) Eberle and Hopkins struggle without Hall.Eakins puts them back periodically.This works sometimes.Other times it doesn’t.

    Why is this still floated as gospel?

    Both Nuge and Eberle’s CF% this year are slightly better WITHOUT Hall or am I not looking at that right?

  173. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ducey: Yes.Great move.Arcobello v.2.(which Tambo or someone never really got credit for)

    I think Tambo actually did get credit there… maybe too much. I recall a variety of folks digging down trying to figure out who found him.

    IIRC it turned out to be RickyO of all people who scouted him and pushed for the initial AHL contract down the chain of command. Tambo gets credit for sure for the extension though and by extension for being around when the initial move was made.

  174. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing I believe we could be critical about in regard to Eakins is staying too long with Gagner on that 2line. When Arco left the line it flagged with Gags. Had he brought Gagner along slowly, including healthy scratches and maybe some rehab time in OKC, I think it might have made a difference.

    Obviously didn’t cost them a playoff spot, but if did have an impact imo.

    I agree with this as well. Not taking advantage of what Arcobello was bringing to the table is a legitimate criticism of Eakins. I get giving Gagner every chance to be a scoring centre. However, while this was happening Arcobello was playing well on the fourth line, giving this team depth it needed.

    This is the blindspot worth criticizing.

  175. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Caramel Obvious: Considering this, I am glad that the coach was willing to try other combinations to see if he can coax two good lines out of spare parts. That plan, at least, has a chance of working.

    It’s not just the coach necessarily.

    WG, IIRC, advanced a pretty compelling theory (I mentioned it above) that MacT pushed Eakins to try on RNH and Eberle without Hall to see what he had in his pocket before he pulled the trigger over the Summer.

    He may, for example, have learned that Eberle is dynamite with hall and less so without and that his true talent is overvalued in the market… that would be valuable information for a GM.

  176. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: maybe some rehab time in OKC

    That’s one of my hobby horses.

    Why is the NHL so averse to conditioning stints?

    You see them in the MLB all the time. Top players do them without batting an eye about demotion.

    My working theory is mix of hubris and short sched. vs MLB

  177. TheOtherJohn says:

    Holmberg is a serious offensive threat. Not, sorry, good sized but he can definitely score. Pretty good bet for a tryout

    We can figure out who he mosty commony plays with later

  178. Bag of Pucks says:

    Personally I’m not a fan of Hall and Nuge on the same line, because I think they’re both at their best when they’re carrying the puck.

    One of the reasons Hall/Nuge/Eberle has achieved some success as a line, imo, is quite simply because they’ve been given the reps. It takes time to figure out another player’s tendencies and this trio was give that time. Doesn’t mean it’s the optimal combination for all time, and certainly not the only one for this team to succeed.

    RNH and Yakupov just has to become a THING at some point. 2 1st OVs. Superlative passer/playmaker with great vision and a one shot sniper. I think we’ve seen this movie before (Gretz to Kurri)? Plus, as a very responsible defensive center, you would think RNH would be an excellent compliment to the more unpredictable Yakupov? In short, Eakins’ needs to give this duo reps, reps and more reps. This rebuild goes nowhere if the first overalls don’t morph into outscorers. The season’s lost. Let’s build some chemistry.

    Onto to Hall. What a luxury having a LW who’s such a dominant possession player, so adept at gaining the zone. We’ll be seeing Patrick Kane levels of patience and creativity out of him before too long. The beauty of this? You don’t need a dominant puckhandling center to pair with him. In fact, a late trailing centerman that goes to the net hard, can park a lot of rebounds and cross crease biscuits in the basket. A physical centerman who doesn’t mind getting his nose dirty or scoring garbage goals is a great compliment to Hall. The key here? He has to be defensively responsible as well. Sorry Gagner, we haven’t ‘seen you well’ lately. Perron is taking on this netfront presence to a certain extent with Hall now. Imagine if he was 30lbs heavier and driving through the D? Now the other teams’ 1D has a real dilemma on their hands, cheat to stop Hall going wide, or deal with the heavy center bearing down on the net. Golden.

    Eakins’ talked about pairs at the beginning of the season. I buy that approach in a big way. For me, the unbreakable pairs at this point should be Hall/Perron & Nuge/Yak with Eberle the season to taste component.

  179. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: GAA is reflective of the SV% which the player has no control.
    You know this.

    You and Icecastles Arguements made me laugh!

    You should accept I cannot take the position there is zero player influence on.
    the pucks directed.
    1. from varying distances
    2. From diffrent x-y location
    3. types
    4. Velocity
    5. Paths (blocked. missed, deflected, screened, unscreened)
    6. elevation of Goalie.

    To start off when looking at shots inside 20 ft there can be a variance of ratio (in20/toal) for each defensive side.
    That is one dman being better than the other.,

    Outside 20 ft the ratio trends to 50/50 per side.
    But the 20-30 ft rangesuccess will vary based on the quality of back pressure from the defenceman’s forwards.

    Pucks can get to diffrent elevations with
    7 holes
    Low blocker side =1 13%
    Low glove side =2 11%
    High blocker side =3 57%
    High glove side =4 55%
    Between the legs = 5 17%
    Between blocker arm and body =6 29%
    Between glove arm and body =7 27%

    and 6 zero score spots
    blocker side pad
    glove side pad
    blocker and Arm
    Glove and arm
    Chest
    Mask

    It is not chance.
    it is not varying save %
    it correlates with the defence and forwards influence on pucks released!

    Fuck me!
    Corsi!

    Try variance in zone starts
    Boyd Gordon
    averages 24 shifts
    20 of them start as face offs.
    With his 20.9% ZS and Neutral count
    there are 14 def starts and 6 off starts.
    an average player would have a corsi of -8 from this.
    then the other 4 shifts.
    As a defensive specialist group.
    What are the odds they are coming on to defend against the other teamspocession.

    Corsi is is more varied than GA!

    Corsi for each of these is a corsi I would follow!
    Shifts start over the boards with pocession.
    Shift start over the boards without pocession
    Shift start FO won OZ
    Shift start FO lost OZ
    Shift start FO won NZ
    Shift start FO lost NZ
    Shift start FO won DZ
    Shift start FO lost DZ

    then I would use Corsi!
    Until it is broken into the 100% Coach influenced results.
    Corsi says there was apuck Directed!
    OK!
    we already look at wether the puck moves forward or back from face offs. ZS and ZF

  180. Wolfie says:

    icecastles: Corsi and chances are determined by the skaters on the ice. GAA is determined by the goalie.

    Measuring a skater’s effectiveness by using GAA is like determining a student’s math skills by grading his English essay.

    Sure it might give you some indirect insight as to the student’s intelligence and work ethic, but the relation to the data you’re actually trying to get is tangential at best, and is already better represented in another dataset.

    Your statement is wrong. I know you’re smart. I’ve read a bunch of your comments. You have good analysis and have greatly contributed to my growing knowledge and appreciation of advanced stats.

    However, the problem with this particular statement is that you deal in absolutes. Sure GAA is mainly affected by the goalie but it is not solely his. I would even argue that a goalie like Brodeur or Turco greatly affected CF and CA with their puck handling skills. Hence the introduction of the trapezoid.

    This is probably the reason I can’t get 100% behind advanced stats. It tries to attribute a stat that is greatly influenced by 11 other skaters on the ice to one player. I think that’s why most people in hockey tend to rely on the “saw him good” method.

    I think these stats can confirm what you see or they can tell a story about a player that may or may not be accurate. Also the data accumulated on a player from one team may not transfer well to another team.

    I think these stats tell part of the story. They do have some predictive value. But there are so many variables that are unaccounted for that the numbers have to be used in conjunction with other means to provide a more complete picture.

  181. oliveoilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s one of my hobby horses.

    Why is the NHL so averse to conditioning stints?

    You see them in the MLB all the time. Top players do them without batting an eye about demotion.

    My working theory is mix of hubris and short sched. vs MLB

    Souray complaining of being rushed back to the line up? I think it was WG that called it ‘Dinosauritus’.

  182. CurtisS says:

    Ok I broke down the line combos

    We wont add the first 2 games as Nuge wasnt available.

    2 games together record 1-1
    17 games apart record 4-13
    10 games together record 5-5
    5 games apart record 2-3
    4 games together record 0-4
    6 games apart record 2-4
    3 games together record 2-1
    3 games apart record 0-3
    8 games together record 4-4
    14 games apart record 6-8
    2 games together record 0-2

    74 + 2 that I left out at start of the year.

    29 games together out of a possible 74 games. record is 12-17
    the 45 games they havent played together their record is 14-31

    Crazy they have only played 29 games together thats no half the season.

    No loser points added in this

  183. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks: Personally I’m not a fan of Hall and Nuge on the same line, because I think they’re both at their best when they’re carrying the puck.

    Carry (drive zone pocession)
    Pivot (set upman)
    Control (zone pocession forward)

    hopefully all are drive the box finnishers.

  184. Andy P says:

    icecastles: is a “viscous ad hominem” attack.

    “is a “viscous ad hominem” attack” sounds like a prostate exam of some sort…..

  185. denny33 says:

    icecastles,

    Thanks for the positive comments….

  186. rickithebear says:

    All i ask is Corsi
    A potentially useful tool
    Be measured situationally.
    Cause they are not the same!
    To make use of a players strength in each of the 8 standard shift starts.

  187. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Is there a full moon?

    Nope, that comes in the overnight hours of April 14/15, and will feature a Total Lunar Eclipse. Right now the Moon is a thin waxing crescent.

  188. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Nope, that comes in the overnight hours of April 14/15, and will feature a Total Lunar Eclipse. Right now the Moon is a thin waxing crescent.

    You wax your moon huh?

  189. denny33 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    RNH and Yakupov just has to become a THING at some point. 2 1st OVs. Superlative passer/playmaker with great vision and a one shot sniper. I think we’ve seen this movie before (Gretz to Kurri)? Plus, as a very responsible defensive center, you would think RNH would be an excellent compliment to the more unpredictable Yakupov? In short, Eakins’ needs to give this duo reps, reps and more reps. This rebuild goes nowhere if the first overalls don’t morph into outscorers. The season’s lost. Let’s build some chemistry.
    ***********************************************************************************
    Bang on….this is a match made in Heaven. Sublime passer with a wicked shot.

    Agree on the idea of playing them together for some time – we are not wining the cup next year either…this duo of RNH and Yak needs to be given tons of time – including PP time.

  190. Bag of Pucks says:

    Following on to my last post, one of the interesting things about a player with exceptional speed like Hall is they create one-on-one mismatches all over the ice, exposing BOTH those opposition players who can’t maintain suitable gap control and pursuit angles AND teammates who simply can’t keep up with them enough to form a suitable compliment.

    Messier and Anderson worked SO well because the opposition literally had to deal with an onrushing tandem of speed demons each and every shift. They can’t skew tactics to eliminate the individual mismatches without sacrificing a ton on the offensive side. At best, you’re hoping for a sawoff, unless you have the ability to throw out your own fast skating pair (Goring and Bourne anyone?). For the majority of the opposition they face? Voila. Tough opp outscoring line.

    I honestly believe one of the reasons we see Gagner cheating so much for the Ozone when he’s with Hall is because Hall so badly exposes Samwise’s lack of footspeed. He HAS to cheat a step or three to the ozone to keep up. Nuge may be getting the 1C job by default right now cos he’s the only one that can keep up!

  191. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: You wax your moon huh?

    For half of each month!

  192. RexLibris says:

    icecastles,

    Aw, shucks. I’m blushing.

  193. Doc Savage says:

    Lowetide: This thread is a train wreck. Honestly. JESUS. Okay:

    My recall is that the Oilers moved Hall to C at the start of the season, but that Nuge arrived back early and the Nuge-Hall-Eberle line reformed and did a live album. This was followed by a studio album, a North American tour and then another studio album before the world tour.

    Eakins broke them up later on to increase scoring, but the line has been together for half the season at least.

    No?

    Not necessarily. People are just refuting statements that others are speaking as gospel without strong backing evidence.

    For example, unless I’m reading http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com incorrectly, it shows that Eberle has been on ice with Hall 5v5 for 412:57 out of 1003:40 minutes, which is only 41% of the time. This doesn’t necessarily overlap the time the RNH is on the ice, which means the amount of time the three of them have been together is likely less than 41%, which is not half the season.

    Krueger deployed Eberle with Hall 5v5 for 433.05 out of 651.09 minutes , or 66% of the time. In fact, Krueger has deployed Eberle with Hall for more total minutes in 48 games than Eakins has in 76 Games. Of course, the time that all three were together will bring that down a bit, but nowhere near the drop that Eakins has shown in his choice of deployment.

    The point is, there’s not much we can compare the relative deployment of these players with outside of a previous coach’s deployment of the same players. It is significantly less with Eakins.

    2013-14
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1341&withagainst=true&season=2013-14&sit=5v5

    2012-13
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1341&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

  194. Marc says:

    godot10: The Oilers had 45 points in 48 games against the Western Conference last year.-8 in goal differential. 24th place, hanging with the pack.The one line strategy was clearly a terrible idea! -).

    The shot metrics are going to net out to about the same. The goal differential is something like -60.61 points in 75 games.Fell out of the pack by the end of October.

    And arguably the roster was worse last year.

    Let’s try this another way.

    The best, best, best case scenario (ie. with .940+ goaltending, an unsustainable shooting % etc.) for a team with one killer line, a free flowing attacking philosophy and a bunch offensive minded D that are looking to jump into the attack – is this year’s Toronto Maple Leafs. And look how that turned out.

    Is this seriously the approach that you think the Oilers should have taken this season? Really?

  195. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    This thread is a train wreck. Honestly. JESUS. Okay:

    …and that is what I, personally, love about it.

    We’ve got statistical evaluation debates, Crimea/Yanukovych comments, and then Bruce and Rom (two of my favourites amongst an all-star cast) waxing their moons for the win.

    I could probably forgo 98% of the information superhighway (anybody remember when that was a thing?) for this picturesque little side avenue of debate, dialogue and…uh, darn it I can’t think of another “d” word for the alliteration hat-trick.

  196. russ99 says:

    Marc: Let’s try this another way.

    The best, best, best case scenario (ie. with .940+ goaltending, an unsustainable shooting % etc.) for a team with one killer line, a free flowing attacking philosophy and a bunch offensive minded D that are looking to jump into the attack – is this year’s Toronto Maple Leafs. And look how that turned out.

    Is this seriously the approach that you think the Oilers should have taken this season?Really?

    While the Penguins have more than one good line, they do use that method to win.

    And none of us who want the Eakins laser-focus on defense to diminish want no defense, just some smarts, picking spots and tailoring the team approach for the roster and finding ways for our players to succeed than tear some of them down while others skate scott-free.

    And to rebut your questions:

    Is to sacrifice offense and play with an overwhelming defensive focus without a shutdown line, with our goons put up against scoring lines and having 1-2 NHL-caliber defensemen on the roster seriously the approach that you think the Oilers should have taken this season? Really?

  197. RexLibris says:

    Andy P: “is a “viscous ad hominem” attack” sounds like a prostate exam of some sort…..

    Indeed it does. But at least it sounds like they used some lubricant.

    As Brent Butt once said, that is not a procedure that should require the Doctor to remove his watch like he’s going after the last pickle in the jar.

  198. Ducey says:

    denny33: Bang on….this is a match made in Heaven. Sublime passer with a wicked shot.

    I am not so sure about Yak’s shot. He has been set up many times this season but has hardly ever got off what I would call a “wicked shot” or decent one timer. This was one the goals of the PP for awhile but he could not get off the shot regularly so they went away from it.

    I think this is one of the things he needs to learn. Unlike Ovi or Stamkos, who seem to be able to get a one timer off at will, Yak has a lot of trouble with his balance, angles and timing still. He struggles to find the soft spot in the zone to get open too.

    Its one thing to let a blistering shot go in warmup, its another to do it when the pass is in your skates or you are being harassed by a Dman.

    This is one of the things that gives me hope as when he masters this he will definitely be a weapon.

  199. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s one of my hobby horses.

    Why is the NHL so averse to conditioning stints?

    You see them in the MLB all the time. Top players do them without batting an eye about demotion.

    My working theory is mix of hubris and short sched. vs MLB

    I recall Tambellini saying early in his tenure that he wanted to do away with the stigma attached to players being sent down to the AHL, that he wanted to emphasize the “development” part of that process.

    Good verbal. Shame about the rest of his plan.

  200. Mesmer says:

    russ99: While the Penguins have more than one good line, they do use that method to win.

    While I really don’t want in on this conversation, you are making his point for him – it works for the Penguins because they have two good lines. This is what you hope to achieve by moving Hall away from the other 6′s. Two lines that can score at will. Perron has been awesome but streaky and Yak isn’t there yet, but you still have to try and get the two lines going otherwise it works as well as it did last night.

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