RE 13-14 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS: CARAVAN

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins got a late start to the 2013-14 season, but joined the party early enough to suffer through the long year with the rest of them. Hindsight being 20/20, it might have been an idea to wait until he was completely ready. That was one of the themes of this Oiler season.

 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.98 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 7.30 (1st among regular forwards, 1st in NHL)
  • Qual Comp: 4th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.6 (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 62.5% (easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 53.6% (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 134/18 13.4% (2nd among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 62gp, 18-34-52 .839
  • Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -26

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.29 (10th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.91 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 4th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 19.2 (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 52.0% (3rd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 48.5% (9th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 78/5.13% (7th among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 40, 4-20-24 .600
  • Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -15

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.57 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.49 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards (1st line teammates)
  • Corsi Rel: 2.7 (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 44.9
  • Corsi for % Rel 5×5: +1.1
  • Zone Start: 58.4% (2nd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 48.3% (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 178/10.7% (4th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 80, 19-37-56 .700
  • Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -51

RE: 62, 21-42-63 1.02

Actual: 80, 19-37-56 .700

  1. HOO-DOGGIE. Your RE is pure comedy. I was certainly too robust in my prediction, but he is back in a good range. His 56 points this season ranked him inside the top 30 in scoring by centers. He has a bright future, and we have to remember he’s more than just a points-producer.
  2. He’s not much of an even-strength points guy. Nuge has posted more points with the man advantage, that’s for sure. Led the team with 20 power-play points this season (20, tied with Eberle) and was fourth in EV points (behind Hall, Eberle and Perron).
  3. Where does he rank among centers? Nuge was 13th in PP points and 31st in even-strength points among centers.
  4. Can you explain these advanced numbers above? Sure. Nuge played on the 1line, against top opposition but did get a nice zone-start push. It should be something he’s accustomed to, and he should make hay.
  5. And yet the numbers are putrid. It’s over. He’s a bitter disappointment. The numbers should be be better, but as we talked about in the Hall RE there was some kinda some kinda with the possession numbers. Nuge was better rel his teammates and he did put up 56 points—36 at evens. He just turned 21.
  6. When? Saturday.
  7. I don’t care! The season was a disaster! he’s ruined as a player! We should have taken Landeskog! He has 100 more points than Nuge! Landeskog has two more points than Nuge, in 17 more games.
  8. Renney knew what to do, but RNH is lost now. He’s Jason Bonsignore. He’s Forrest Gump. He’s Gilligan! He’s fine. Nugent-Hopkins needs to mature, but there’s a fine player here, a guy who can sustain this franchise for a long, long time. It’s very important to remember that injury impacted year two and the start of year three.
  9. Remind me of what he is. Nuge is a two-way center with elite vision and passing skills. He’s a cerebral player, and dogged in his determination. RNH is a thinking man’s center with great skating skills—he’ll play long after these wingers are done on that alone (although Hall could play forever if those wheels hang in). He has a sixth sense, some kind of intuition, that allows him to wait until the exact moment when a pass is best sent away. It’s a thrilling component of his game and one expects it’ll make him an outstanding 5×4 player for a long time.
  10. He doesn’t push the river, though, not like Hall. Hall is 17 months–basically TWO YEARS–older than the Nuge. That’s a crazy, crazy difference for two guys drafted in consecutive years. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just turned 21. He’s six months older than Nail Yakupov for crying out loud–he is really just a kid.
  11. He misses the damn net a lot. Yes, but he hit the net more this year and scored 19 goals. At his peak I imagine we’ll see 25-30 goals annually.
  12. And how many assists? 45-50 seems about right. The Oilers PP was mush this season and he popped 14 assists. That number could double during his peak seasons.
  13. Double? You’re on crack. As a rookie, he finished third in the entire NHL with 20 PP assists.
  14. So you’re saying we should expect him to peak out at 30-50-80? I don’t think that’s an unreasonable projection. If the Oilers become more of a high octane team—and let’s face it the power play should be better—Nuge will post the best offensive numbers by an Oilers center since Doug Weight.
  15. While also being a quality two-way guy. Yes.
  16. He sure played a lot. Yes, he did. Nuge’s 20:23 per night has him in the top 20 among forwards, just outside the top 10 among centers.
  17. Freaking Eakins. He ruined everything! Well, he didn’t have a tremendous number of options and Nuge was clear of Gagner and other centers. The numbers suggest the coach might have counted on Arcobello longer—like for the whole season—but it’s all gone now.
  18. What was the problem with the Hall possession again? As I understand it, Eakins was very stern in his lecture about turning the puck over in bad places. Hall took that to heart and the line began chipping the puck in often instead of carrying it in under control. They also had issues (this is the Dellow diaries now) with getting more than one shot during a sortie—something they managed successfully in past seasons.
  19. Alignment issue? I don’t know what to call it, sometimes I think there was a tug-of-war going on in that room, but I have no proof it’s the case.
  20. Maturity issue? Sure, but we might be talking about coach and player having the same issue. I don’t have enough evidence to accuse either side so it isn’t fair to point fingers.
  21. To hell with fair! This is a blog! Spit it out old man! Well, Hall-Nuge-Eberle were successful in past seasons, so the gumming up of the works happened after Eakins arrived.
  22. I knew it! That rat fink! Settle down. It’s a learning process, and Hall mentioned the other day that the group was pleased to have him coming back next season as coach.
  23. The hell he did! TAYLOR HALL: “I’m looking forward to having a coach coming back next year and really knowing what to expect. Hockey players, they like comfort and they like stability and having Dallas back next year, knowing what to expect, for me personally is something I’m looking forward to.”
  24. Oh what does he know?!?!?!! A lot more than you and me about what’s going on in that room.
  25. Why this song, Carnival? Caravan.
  26. Yeah, Caravan. Why this horn song? It’s a happy, uplifting song and about a period of youth when anything seems possible. The images coming out of the raddeo are compelling, the horns are powerful and the song rips through the air. The Band is The Band so that’s damn good too.
  27. What does it have to do with Nuge? Well it’s also about turning it up, and about being part of something strong, and it’s about bringing harmony. Nuge has been in the background—as much as a #1 overall can be—while Eberle and Hall have had their seasons of emergence. I think this coming year will be the year of the Nuge.
  28. And he’ll emerge as a leader of the Caravan? And bring structure and harmony when he takes the wheel. That’s the next logical step, but let’s not hurry this too much. Enjoy the ride.
  29. Geez, Van Morrison. Turn it up.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

64 Responses to "RE 13-14 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS: CARAVAN"

  1. Ice Sage says:

    Nuge is a beauty.
    His ability to figure out ‘man hockey’ is a key variable for this team’s success. More Datsyuk, less Gagner, please!

  2. Jordan says:

    He’s a wonderful player – I love watching him play. I know he doesn’t have the speed and power of a Hall, but the kid knows where to be to make a play, and when to make it. You talk about cerebral, but when I see him out there, it’s not cerebral. He’s not going out there and thinking about it. He’s going out there and doing it right WITHOUT thinking. He’s a natural. He’s been touched by the Gords and what he creates out there is graceful, seamless plays. His give and goes are clean, and his stick check puck retrievals are crisp.

    Anyone who wants to have take Gabe over this kid should really give their head a shake. Maybe you prefer the meathead hockey of the broadstreet bullies or the recent Bruins/Kings Championship teams. Maybe you like watching two teams grind it out in the corners like a bunch of repressed teenagers at their first coed dance. Not my cup of hockey. I’ll take what RNH brings every day of the week, and twice on Sundays over that style of play. Hockey is best as a game of finesse and skill. And that’s the game I love watching Ryan play.

  3. Lowetide says:

    On today’s Lowdown

    10:05 Dennis King. Easiest segment of the week. He’ll bring it
    10:25 Andrew Berkshire, Habs Eyes on the Prize. Smart fellow, enjoyable chat.
    11:00 Steve Lansky. Great fun, the show isnt on tomorrow so we’ll chat today. I’m going to mock him for his Shanahan devotion.
    11:25 Corey Graham, Oil Kings pbp. Corey will tell us about the Medicine Hat Tigers, OK’s next opponent.

    10, Lowdown, TSN. Turn it up, radio. :-)

  4. regwald says:

    One of MacT’s mistakes from last summer was not bringing in more center help when he knew Nuge was coming off an injury. Also, it looked like Eakins ran him into the ground with all the ice time and PK time.

    He looked tired and worn out in April.

  5. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Remind me how 17 months is basically 2 years?

  6. PunjabiOil says:

    LOL. Love this RE series. Your alter ego is such a dink.

  7. Henry says:

    regwald:
    One of MacT’s mistakes from last summer was not bringing in more center help when he knew Nuge was coming off an injury. Also, it looked like Eakins ran him into the ground with all the ice time and PK time.

    He looked tired and worn out in April.

    I agree. As the Nuge gets bigger and stronger with age he should be able to handle the minutes better. Hopefully the boxcars will follow. With his talent and those linemates, I’m confident he will be a 90-100 point player.

    This kid is a superb skater. When he’s on he sort of floats over the ice then can turn very sharply with speed. In back-to-back games and late in some games his skating seems to suffer. It’s hard to be superhuman when tired.

  8. mumbai max says:

    Can you even try to imagine the Nuge as an old man. You get the feeling he will always look 16. Ekblad shaves more facial hair EVERY DAY than Nuge will own in his whole lifetime. Love the Nuge.

  9. su_dhillon says:

    LT Im sure yu will discuss MacT presser with Dennis, hoping to hear both of your thoughts specifically on the verbal on the assistant coaches and where they rank in player development.

    You may have already given your thoughts and I may have just mssed them but curious on your take on both of those.
    Thanks

  10. mumbai max says:

    If Eakins just leaves the HEN line together all year, and also goes back to using them as the first pp unit, the definition of ‘reasonable’ is going to change.

  11. Ducey says:

    Any idea what the hold up is in signing Simpson and McCarron?

  12. Ducey says:

    mumbai max: If Eakins just leaves the HEN line together all year, and also goes back to using them as the first pp unit, the definition of ‘reasonable’ is going to change.

    I don’t think its that simple. Those guys tend to try and play too much down low and have become predictable. They need a big shot from the point and some net presence to mix it up.

    Schultz should be the set up man on the point with another D being the shooter. Unfortunately the Oilers don’t have a D man with a big shot or much a net presence guy.

  13. mumbai max says:

    Ducey: I don’t think its that simple.Those guys tend to try and play too much down low and have become predictable.They need a big shot from the point and some net presence to mix it up.

    Schultz should be the set up man on the point with another D being the shooter.Unfortunately the Oilers don’t have a D man with a big shot or much a net presence guy.

    Ducey: I don’t think its that simple.Those guys tend to try and play too much down low and have become predictable.They need a big shot from the point and some net presence to mix it up.

    Schultz should be the set up man on the point with another D being the shooter.Unfortunately the Oilers don’t have a D man with a big shot or much a net presence guy.

    Well, that may be true, however last year they were the #1 unit and had a great PP year. This year they were mostly broken up and the PP numbers suffered. So, according to the non advanced stats, it seems like a good idea to have them together :-) Who will be the net front presence with them, or on the second unit is a good question. Byfuglien?

  14. Hammers says:

    RNH is a keeper for sure but if we admit the truth he would do a lot better with a good /great 2nd line center . If your the opposing coach you had 1 line to worry about and I even include Hall on the 2nd line 40% of the time . As a team we had no balance and we can’t keep putting it on injuries . Until we have a legitimate 2nd line center RNH will be a 55-60 point player . The right guy as your next center does two things , more points for that line and more for the RNH line .

  15. OilClog says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    Remind me how 17 months is basically 2 years?

    Add 6 months, then another.

  16. Numenius says:

    mumbai max:
    If Eakins just leaves the HEN line together all year, and also goes back to using them as the first pp unit, the definition of ‘reasonable’ is going to change.

    Heh. Calling it the “HEN” line is perfect. “Hen” means “one” in ancient Greek.

  17. mumbai max says:

    Numenius: Heh. Calling it the “HEN” line is perfect. “Hen” means “one” in ancient Greek.

    I knew that

  18. Mr DeBakey says:

    PunjabiOil: LOL. Love this RE series. Your alter ego is such a dink.

    The commenters write most of the alter ego’s stuff.

    I don’t care! The season was a disaster! he’s ruined as a player! We should have taken Landeskog! He has 100 more points than Nuge! Landeskog has two more points than Nuge, in 17 more games.

    Don’t forget Landeskog brings a tonne of grititude in addition to the extra goals

  19. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    PunjabiOil: Your alter ego is such a dink.

    Yeah. And even now his alter ego could still teach LT a thing or two about hating Smid.

  20. flyfish1168 says:

    4 months of training and 15 lbs added will be an excellant starting point for next season for The Nuge.

  21. su_dhillon says:

    Dennis comparing an Oilers season to a weekend with the in laws was pure gold.

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Henry: This kid is a superb skater. When he’s on he sort of floats over the ice then can turn very sharply with speed. In back-to-back games and late in some games his skating seems to suffer. It’s hard to be superhuman when tired.

    Bang on. If I have 2 concerns about this kid they centre on stamina and consistency, which are of course related to each other. “When he’s on” he is outstanding, I’d just like to see his “on” switch engaged in a higher percentage of games.

    A steady dose of Kopitar, Getzlaf, Thornton, Hanzal, Kesler, Backes, Toews et al would be wearing on anybody, let alone a kid who gives up 5-10 years & 30-50 pounds to all of them. It’s a tough gig, and that “old man strength” can’t arrive soon enough.

  23. Ryan says:

    su_dhillon:
    Dennis comparing an Oilers season to a weekend with the in laws was pure gold.

    That and everything he had to say. First time I managed to catch him on the radio, that guy is just awesome.

  24. Zangetsu says:

    Why does huge have to be a behemoth? I admit, there was concern when he was listed as 160 at the start of his draft year, but he was about 180 when he started with the oil. I’m afraid of him adding too much weight, as I think size will actually hinder his game. His game being silky smooth skating, deceptive speed, well timed stick checks, brilliant passing. Size often costs speed and mobility; Nuge’s two biggest assets.

    I wouldn’t be opposed to having nuge take the 2c defensive minded role, and the drafted center be the offensive guy. The only asterisk being chemistry of the first line. No slight to Nuge, but if we had two top 30 centers, he might be the better defensively.

    I’m praying that eckblad is gone before the oil pick. Draisaitl’s report reminds me of penner (I liked him, but a big guy who doesn’t hit tends to get run out of town). He is also a guy playing a big mans game agains little men, and who knows how much he can add to his frame at 6’1 to 6’2. Dalle collie scares me, since he is listed as a C/LW, which usually means LW at the NHL. I like bennett’s reports, and the best offensive players seem to come from the OHL (no research on that one). Reinhart strikes me as Nuge 2.0. Bennett soundless like he has a yang to Nuges Yin. Reinhart is my man, but if bennett is there instead take him.

  25. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: that “old man strength” can’t arrive soon enough.

    Ha ha let him get his regular man strength first.
    RNH isn’t going to start physically maturing until he’s 21 and a half.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “The numbers should be be better, but as we talked about in the Hall RE there was some kinda some kinda with the possession numbers.”

    Oh, this is just fantastic.

    I love the Nuge. I’d just love to re-do the last two years with him on the 2 line without all the eyeballs giving him the gears. It really is a mess that Gagner can’t take some pressure off.

    Here’s hoping we get some help this offseason.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BTW on offseason whatnot… I wrote something on MacT and UFA D (mentioned it here yesterday).

    give it a read:

    http://theoilersrig.com/2014/04/free-agent-defensemen/

  28. rickithebear says:

    RNH has been top 70 EVG and EVP his healthy 2 years.
    He missed a standard bump from strength development age 18-20.
    But would expect an 20% push by end of 15-16.
    making him an top 40 in EVG nad EVP.

    Gagner has been top 70 in EVG and EVA.
    18-20 .125 EVG/gm .27EVA/gm
    21-22 .16 EVG/gm .31 EVA/gm
    23-24 healthy .20 EVG/gm .30EVA/gm
    his average 76gm seasongets him into top 55 EVG and EVP.

    when you look at 5 draft Forwards
    Based on age; CHL projection curves and EV to PP ratio.
    Ilike to see their best case EVNHLE @ 22

    Draisaitl 6’1″ 209lb
    82gm 18G (top 40) 27A 45P (top 30)

    Rheinhardt 6’1″ 183LB
    82gm 17G (top 50) 29A 46P (top 30)
    His brother Max was 6’1″ 185LB in kootney; 6’0″ 180lb @22 with the heat.
    A hint at what Sam will end at?

    Bennett 6’0″ 181lb
    82gm 25G (top 10) 35A 60P (top 5)

    Del Colle 6’2″ 170lb
    82gm 19G (top 35) 24A 43p (top 40)

    Ehlers 5’11″ 165lb
    82gm 26G (top 15) 24A 50P (top 15)
    165lb and played with Drouin?

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Perron-Bennett/Drasaitl-XXX
    XXX-Gagner-XXX
    Hendricks-Gordon-Yak

    Man I want Penner & Kulemin with Gagner versus 3rd’s

  29. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I don’t recall the numbers, and feel free to show me that I’m an idiot, but I seem to recall that in the 2011 draft, Strome, Huberdeau, Landeskog, and Couturier were all CLEARLY better than RNH offensively based on the same metric (certainly a few of them). I’m quite confident that I wouldn’t trade RNH for any of them, even from an offense only perspective.

    For that reason I’m not sure trading up makes a lot of sense. It might pan out, but the risk/reward isn’t there for me. These stats are nicely illustrative but hardly definitive.

  30. Numenius says:

    mumbai max: I knew that

    Nice work.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    I don’t recall the numbers, and feel free to show me that I’m an idiot, but I seem to recall that in the 2011 draft, Strome, Huberdeau, Landeskog, and Couturier were all CLEARLY better than RNH offensively based on the same metric (certainly a few of them).I’m quite confident that I wouldn’t trade RNH for any of them, even from an offense only perspective.

    For that reason I’m not sure trading up makes a lot of sense.It might pan out, but the risk/reward isn’t there for me.These stats are nicely illustrative but hardly definitive.

    You can see the write ups and boxcars for all the players from 2011 here:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=44969

  32. TheOtherJohn says:

    Re: your Oilrig article: Extra skater has Niskanen as one of his finalists for Norris……. Sure hope he’s not defined as middle of pack D by Oilers

  33. bendelson says:

    Is there really any reason to worry about RNH?

    1) The HEN line will continue to develop, and with Hall pushing the river, his linemates will benefit.
    2) As mentioned, a real 2C will take a load of the pressure off the kid. Gagner has made RNH’s life more difficult than it should have ever been…
    3) The best coaching staff in the NHL will fix the PP with RNH reaping the rewards.
    4) RNH will be should be healthy and with a full summer of conditioning should be ready to go for training camp.

    So, no, I am not at all worried…

    That being said, it never hurts to pray for baby Nuge.

  34. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-Money!: For that reason I’m not sure trading up makes a lot of sense. It might pan out, but the risk/reward isn’t there for me. These stats are nicely illustrative but hardly definitive.

    RNH: was an april 12 draft year player a NHLE age % of 63% of CHL PPG
    He had 69gm 31G 75A 106P = 1.536 PPG
    1.536PPG X .63 = .967 PPG

    82 X .967 = 79 PT best case

    Goals: 20 EV and 11 PP .645 EV
    Assists 31 EV and 48 PP .4i3 EV
    82gm 26G 56A 79P
    82gm 17EVG 23EVA 40 EVP

    Players do not get the extreme PP TOI push in NHL
    we see 30 to 40 % of pt production from the best pp players.
    the odd PP driven player
    Backstrom 55.7%
    Ovechkin 49.4%

    Crosby 36%
    RNH 36%
    Eberle 31%

    I tend to use 35% of junior even production for a best case
    .35/.65 =( .54 X40) + 40
    Witch makes NUG a 62 PT player.

    Numbers that look like a 43EVP @ 22 leading him to be a 66-67P Fwd

    now if he is a 40% pp Fwd
    then .40/.6 = (.6666 X 40) + 40 = 67pt
    (43 X .66666) = 72 pt player.

    That G to Assist Ratio bothered the heck out of me.
    I thought it said something.
    Did not know how to break down the problem.
    The ratios are Clear cut. history tells us.
    The PPA count was unsutainable!

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Re: your Oilrig article: Extra skater has Niskanen as one of his finalists for Norris……. Sure hope he’s not defined as middle of pack D by Oilers

    It’s hard to gauge how the league feels about these folks.

    My sense is the playoffs will make Niskanen and maybe Quincey out of reach… I expect them to get “playoff chatter”

    But they are still guys that fly under the radar… I mean out in Pit we hear a lot about Letang, Orpik and Martin… even here in Oilerland we hear a lot more about Engelland (due to EDM connections and Matty) than we do about Niskanen.

    As a guy on twitter told me: “Yikes. If MacT considers any of those defensemen “high end” …we’re in trouble lol”

    I think that echoes the run-of-the-mill fan that basically focuses on an extraordinarily narrow group of D (the super absurdly good and the face punching). I hope MacT aims for the big middle ground of good players.

  36. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Thanks Rom (can I call you Rom… Mr. Apotheosis?…)

    What I meant though was breaking down point production as a means of saying who is better than who tends to get out of hand: RNH had pretty much the same PPG as Strome, Huberdeau, and Couturier and while Landeskog didn’t have the points he scored lots of goals. RNH was panned by many because so many of his points came on the powerplay: the other guys in the 106 point range were better at EVstrength, though I don’t recall exactly by how much. Fast forward 3 years and RNH has 2x the points of Couturier (who is good in his own right for other reasons), Huberdeau had a brutal sophomore campaign, Strome hasn’t really firmly established himself as an NHLer (and not on a super deep team). Landeskog is a beauty, but he’s not better than RNH now, and in my mind won’t be 10 years from now.

    I’m not saying it’s not a good exercise, I understand the value of even strength production. What I mean is that people tend to get over zealous with their assessment:

    i.e. two players have identical points per game (Drasaitl/Bennett for example) but one got more EVpoints, therefore he’s clearly better than the other guy, to the point that we should trade up to get him, or discount every other metric when it comes time to make our selection.

  37. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:

    when you look at 5 draft Forwards
    Based on age; CHL projection curves and EV to PP ratio.
    Ilike to see their best case EVNHLE @ 22

    Draisaitl 6’1″ 209lb
    82gm 18G (top 40)27A 45P (top 30)

    Reinhardt 6’1″ 183LB
    82gm 17G (top 50) 29A46P (top 30)

    Bennett 6’0″ 181lb
    82gm 25G (top 10) 35A 60P (top 5)

    Great, great stuff. I have just been looking at some scouting reports for these guys. This is what I came up with.

    Best Skater- Bennett, also the fastest
    Smartest Player- Reinhart, but other two are smart as well, Bennett was deemed smartest player by OHL coaches in the OHL
    Best Defensive Player- Bennett
    Best Shot- Even? All have about same amount of goals
    Best Playmaker- Again, Even? All have great vision.
    Best Compete Level- Bennett
    Biggest Player- Draisaitl
    Best guy to play with Yak- Bennett, All these guys are great playmakers but Yak will need a centermen that can play very well defensively.Not that Reinhart or Draisaitl are Gagner 2.0 defensively speaking, but there has not been much chatter about their defensive play.

  38. G Money says:

    Ca$h-Money!: i.e. two players have identical points per game (Drasaitl/Bennett for example) but one got more EVpoints, therefore he’s clearly better than the other guy, to the point that we should trade up to get him, or discount every other metric when it comes time to make our selection.

    Yup.

    The other thing I find amusing is when people get into holy wars over which player is better than the other (“OBVIOUSLY Bennett”. “OF COURSE it’s Draisaitl” “NO DOUBT drafting Ekblad high is a mistake” etc), when the reality is that:
    - The people who actually watch these guys have them ranked where they are, and generally most of them take a lot of ‘seen him good’ and also a reasonable number of statistics into account
    - The ranking we generally see is a consensus (e.g. Bobby Mac)
    - Reinhart, Ekblad, Bennett, and Draisaitl are the clear top 4 in this draft

    So … this makes me happy. Because it means that unless the Oilers go Steve Kelly Stupid(tm) again, it doesn’t matter which of those four we get – we will draft either a top notch C or a top notch D, and in the process fill (with very high probability) one of our enormous roster gaps in the long run.

    BTW, for those convinced that drafting a D high is an obvious and caramelly mistake: the data does not support you. Here’s the ‘games played by defensemen by draft position’ graph I made a few weeks ago … it seems pretty clear to me that the only obvious mistake is drafting a defenseman #1 … otherwise, if you need a top end defenseman, drafting one at #3 is a good thing.
    http://imgur.com/NALh156

    EDIT: Oh yeah, forgot to add: shout out to my Money Bro!

  39. spoiler says:

    I

    G Money: Yup.
    The other thing I find amusing is when people get into holy wars over which player is better than the other (“OBVIOUSLY Bennett”. “OF COURSE it’s Draisaitl” “NO DOUBT drafting Ekblad high is a mistake” etc), when the reality is that:
    - The people who actually watch these guys have them ranked where they are, and generally most of them take a lot of ‘seen him good’ and also a reasonable number of statistics into account
    - The ranking we generally see is a consensus (e.g. Bobby Mac)
    - Reinhart, Ekblad, Bennett, and Draisaitl are the clear top 4 in this draft
    So … this makes me happy. Because it means that unless the Oilers go Steve Kelly Stupid(tm) again, it doesn’t matter which of those four we get – we will draft either a top notch C or a top notch D, and in the process fill (with very high probability) one of our enormous roster gaps in the long run.
    BTW, for those convinced that drafting a D high is an obvious and caramelly mistake: the data does not support you. Here’s the ‘games played by defensemen by draft position’ graph I made a few weeks ago … it seems pretty clear to me that the only obvious mistake is drafting a defenseman #1 … otherwise, if you need a top end defenseman, drafting one at #3 is a good thing.
    http://imgur.com/NALh156
    EDIT: Oh yeah, forgot to add: shout out to my Money Bro!

    I must say, I do like the curve of your spline…

  40. Marcus Oilerius says:

    frjohnk,

    The way I read your list is “why would anyone draft Draisaitl in the top 3?”

  41. spoiler says:

    Ca$h-Money!: I’m not saying it’s not a good exercise, I understand the value of even strength production. What I mean is that people tend to get over zealous with their assessment:

    I think the EV PP comparison can raise as many questions as it answers. As I posted yesterday, we are not getting enough data on these players to understand The Why behind the breakdown of their scoring…. is it systems, linemates, their skillset, TOI, SH%, etc?

  42. denny33 says:

    hunter1909,

    Bruce McCurdy: that “old man strength” can’t arrive soon enough.
    Ha ha let him get his regular man strength first.
    RNH isn’t going to start physically maturing until he’s 21 and a half.

    ******************************

    Or – he could do what Stamkos and sooooo many others ….go to Gary Roberts in the off-season and work out.

    Night and Day difference to a lot of players before and after …

  43. frjohnk says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    frjohnk,

    The way I read your list is “why would anyone draft Draisaitl?”

    I’m sure somebody will draft Draisaitl, :)

    I was just relaying what I felt the scouting reports were saying. A week ago, I was hoping oilers would pick Draisaitl, but as I have dug into more stats and reports, I’m liking Bennett. I think Draisaitl is just a step below those two guys, but there is not much a gap. I still think Draisaitl is the oilers guy because they value size big time. I believe he will be a good choice. All of those are good choices. Who knows how they turn out.

    But I think Bennett goes top two.

    And I hope the oilers can find value in the pick for a trade of guy that can be impact this coming year, not in two, three years.

  44. denny33 says:

    G Money,

    BTW, for those convinced that drafting a D high is an obvious and caramelly mistake: the data does not support you. Here’s the ‘games played by defensemen by draft position’ graph I made a few weeks ago … it seems pretty clear to me that the only obvious mistake is drafting a defenseman #1 … otherwise, if you need a top end defenseman, drafting one at #3 is a good thing.
    *****************************************************************************************
    You are my favourite poster…..

  45. Marcus Oilerius says:

    frjohnk,

    The only thing I can see speaking in favor of Draisaitl is his inexperience with North American ice.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    frjohnk,

    The only thing I can see speaking in favor of Draisaitl is his inexperience with North American ice.

    2 full years of WHL is “inexperience”?

    And, why would inexperience be in one’s favor?

    I think we’re getting a little carried away trying to hedge between these players.

  47. G Money says:

    spoiler:
    I

    I must say, I do like the curve of your spline…

    Thanks! And I like the cut of your jib!

    denny33: You are my favourite poster…..

    C’mon man, you’re making me blush!

  48. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Fast forward 3 years and RNH has 2x the points of Couturier

    In even or Short handed Situation:.

    Couturier: 1st Comp 4th teamates 42.4% ZS
    82Gm 12 EVG 1SHG 19 EVA 4 SHA 13 EV+SHG 23 EV+SHA

    RNH: 1st Comp 1st Teamates 58.4% ZS
    80 Gm 13 EVG 0 SHG 23 EVA 0SHA 13 EV+SHG 23 EV+SHA

    Wonder how Couturier would do on the PP?

  49. russ99 says:

    Again, the issues with RNH (as with Hall) were utilization.

    Eakins ran these guys into the ground with crazy ice time early in the season.
    Midseason, Eakins mixed and matched the three kids too much across lines when they obviously play the best together.
    Late season, they got back on the same line, the dump was off and they did good things against tough comp.

    It’s understandable why he did really well on the PP and not so good EV.

    Hopefully that was a learning experience for our rookie coach, and he’ll know how to best utilize them – and other lines, don’t get me started on 3rd and 4th line usage.

    The biggest thing Eakins can do to improve is look at line usage by other coaches during the playoffs. Short, targeted shifts, especially at home.

  50. stevezie says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    We really can’t lose. I hope in the rush to find something to talk about we don’t forget that. Ekblad is my number 4, and if we get him I’ll be happy.

  51. VanOil says:

    frjohnk: Great, great stuff. I have just been looking at some scouting reports for these guys. This is what I came up with.

    Best Skater- Bennett, also the fastest
    Smartest Player- Reinhart, but other two are smart as well, Bennett was deemed smartest player by OHL coaches in the OHL
    Best Defensive Player- Bennett
    Best Shot- Even? All have about same amount of goals
    Best Playmaker- Again, Even? All have great vision.
    Best Compete Level- Bennett
    Biggest Player- Draisaitl
    Best guy to play with Yak- Bennett, All these guys are great playmakers but Yak will need a centermen that can play very well defensively.Not that Reinhart or Draisaitl are Gagner 2.0 defensively speaking, but there has not been much chatter about their defensive play.

    I would like to thank Ricki for extrapolating out the age advantage, useful stuff. As for Frjohnk comparative study of scouting for the most part it sounds very reasonable and comprehensive. My only concern is does Bennett receive plaudits for his defending due to the fact he is always defending? Ala Tippet’s defensive defender remarks.

    Sadly CHL possession stats are unavailable but anecdotally the WHL players are both good at possession. If Draisaitl puts his butt out and keeps the puck control in the O-zone he is defending in a very effective way. Coaching and systems have a big influence on all these impressions and stats, as Kharia’s Everett numbers strongly indicate.

    I guess this is why the scouts earn the big bucks, they still have something to offer.

  52. rickithebear says:

    first 3 years:
    couturier: 27 EVG 3 SHG 39 EVA 4 SHA 30G 43A 73P
    RNH: 30 EVG 0 SHG 48 EVA 0 SHA 30G 48A 78P

    I am still extremely happy with RNH.

    It is more a tool to identify an oulier number and bring it realistic maximum Expectations.

    I would expect Ekblad And Bennett to be gone.

    I do not like the lack of weight gain from Max in 4 years.
    Del colle is currently a bean pole.

    Ehlers played with Droin.
    EVG numbers?

  53. Rondo says:

    VanOil,

    According to LT regarding Sam Bennett

    He posted a poor 5×5/60 and even though his underlying numbers look good the qual comp was soft and he didn’t have tough zone starts.

  54. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    VanOil,

    According to LTregarding Sam Bennett

    He posted a poor 5×5/60 and even though his underlying numbers look good the qual comp was soft and he didn’t have tough zone starts.

    This is a joke, right? There’s no way to ascertain this information, and Bennett’s point per game at even strength number is strong. I published those numbers recently.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    denny33: Or – he could do what Stamkos and sooooo many others ….go to Gary Roberts in the off-season and work out.
    Night and Day difference to a lot of players before and after …

    Look. Unless RNH is physically mature(Stamkos he ain’t), all the boring crap they make these players do won’t do anything except slow his skating down. Sam Garner(blame spellcheck) turned up pumped up once, and was terrible.

    Giant clowns who pump iron all day long are huge, but their hearts literally can’t tell the difference between fat/muscle.

  56. Marcus Oilerius says:

    hunter1909,

    Stamkos is emaciated. He looks like he came out of Auschwitz. Don’t give me that “physically mature” crap. Nuge and Hall need to stop eating KD for supper.

  57. AZOIL says:

    I am not worried about Nuge at all! He is awesome already! When his size comes in he will be great! I was a tall lanky 6’1 yr old at one point and at 19-21 I weighed 175-180 if I was lucky. I really grew a lot from 21 to 25 and have hovered around 205 to 215 ever since. I naturally thickened up at that age, became a man or whatever you want to call it.

  58. stevezie says:

    Rondo: He posted a poor 5×5/60 and even though his underlying numbers look good the qual comp was soft and he didn’t have tough zone starts.

    I remember in the thread this was posted. LT was not talking about Bennet, but someone else made the same mistake you did, so don’t feel bad.

    Unless it was you that time too. Maybe feel a little bad. Just a little.

  59. vangolf says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Not to get too uppity, but your choice of comparison is a little distasteful…even 70 years later.

  60. Ribs says:

    stevezie: I remember in the thread this was posted. LT was not talking about Bennet, but someone else made the same mistake you did, so don’t feel bad.

    Unless it was you that time too. Maybe feel a little bad. Just a little.

    Yea, I think someone asked about getting David Booth when LT said that.

  61. Ribs says:

    Marcus Oilerius: Nuge and Hall need to stop eating KD for supper.

    But it’s got Calcium! and Iron! And it’s a good source of protein! The box wouldn’t lie!

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dnar8DPYRbQ/T-DgrTWfTPI/AAAAAAAAFqw/d2XNfLcNYwE/s1600/KraftDinner_Lge_2.png

  62. Marcus Oilerius says:

    vangolf,

    My family was there. I’m ok with it.

    edit: not Auschwitz specifically, but Treblinka on my mom’s side (Jews) and Soldau on my dad’s (rebellious Poles.)

    I also don’t understand why the Holocaust gets such special treatment. Starving kids in Africa today, Soviet gulags, Russian pogroms, the plight of North American native tribes, etc. are fair game.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca