THE PLAN

Now that we know the position Edmonton will draft this summer, let’s talk about options. Remember, Craig MacTavish doesn’t have a full chamber this time, and might seek additional bullets as we lead up to the entry draft.

CURRENT PICKS (OILERS EDITION)

  • #3 overall (first round)
  • #91 overall (fourth round, this is the Bryzgalov return)
  • #116 overall (fourth round, this is the Mike Brown return)
  • #128 overall (fifth round, this is the first pick of the Ales Hemsky return)
  • #136 overall (fifth round, this is the Nick Schultz return)
  • #153 overall (sixth round)
  • #183 overall (seventh round)
  • Craig Button on Aaron Ekblad: When you build a team, you need a solid foundation. Aaron is a pillar defenceman who can play 25 minutes or more and do so in all important situations. His on-ice maturity is exceptional.
  • Corey Pronman on Sam Reinhart: Reinhart is the best pure passer in this draft class. His ability to dictate the tempo of a hockey game, in terms of increasing or decreasing pace and making plays at all those speeds, elevates his game to a distinct level. Reinhart can make all kinds of plays with the puck, and his elite hockey sense stands out regularly in terms of the passing lanes he sees.
  • Mike Morreale on Sam Bennett: The scouts found no reason to move the 6-foot, 178-pount, left-shooting Bennett from his perch at the top. Considered by many to be a clone of Kingston general manager and Hockey Hall of Fame member Doug Gilmour, Bennett finished with career highs across the board in goals (36), assists (55), points (91), power-play goals (10), plus-minus rating (plus-34) and penalty minutes (118).
  • Bruce McCurdy on Leon Draisaitl: The big centre (listed as 6’1, 209) was neither overly physically aggressive nor a speedster, but largely impressed this observer with his overall command of the game. The play went through his stick constantly, and for the most part, good or at least promising things developed thereafter. He showed a couple of bursts of what I would term “situational speed” but his A game is clearly one of controlling the play rather than pushing it. As I said to my voice recorder at one point, “When the puck is on Draisaitl’s stick, he owns it. Even if there’s a guy in his kitchen he’s in full control.” And later, “Very calm with the puck on his stick, not quite nonchalant but knows how much time he’s got, which in this league is a lot. Big and strong and can dangle the puck out of reach of the man who’s on him, pick his spot and distribute… A lot of subtle stuff, some little mistakes at the end of shifts, but with the puck on his stick he makes a lot of good decisions.”
  • Craig MacTavish on Nikolaj Ehlers: “He looked pretty good to me. He’s a pretty dynamic, a very dynamic player. He’s really exciting to watch. Every time he’s on the ice you can see he has a hunger and intense desire to play the game: high-speed skill, quickness, great stick skill. He looks very dangerous to me.”
  • Craig Button on Michael Dal Colle: Michael has the abilities to impact the game in multiple ways. Very good skater with speed and power and with his size, is the type of player who can ‘go where he wants.’ Smart and can make plays and has good puck skills in passing and shooting. Appears to be very comfortable on the wing and can create advantages for the team along the boards, at the net and with his skill. Players with these attributes are coveted.

 

Questions:

  1. If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
  2. Do you consider trading up?
  3. Do you consider trading down?
  4. If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
  5. What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?

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136 Responses to "THE PLAN"

  1. george_hamplas says:

    Literally every list i’ve seen has the same 3 guys at the top. Ekblad, Reinhart and Bennet. Is everybody wrong or are we valuing draisaitl’s one and inch and 30 pounds on bennet just a little too much.

  2. TheOtherJohn says:

    I would seriously consider seeing if NYI would trade Griffin Reinhart for our #3

    Think he will be NHL ready this year. Think he will be capable of top 4 minute by the end of 14/15. Will not score much at NHL level but may offset the defensive indifference (similar to Sam Gagner) of Justin Schultz.

    Allows Oilers to leave Nurse in CHL and not have too green a D here next year

    It then becomes imperative to trade for a 2C

  3. vangolf says:

    1. Bennett
    2. DEFINITE NO
    3. Only to #4, or trading for established NHL’er
    4. Not at all.
    5. Lust for size.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?”

    Draisaitl. obviously.

    ———–

    “Do you consider trading up?”

    No. I’m not insane.

    ———–

    “Do you consider trading down?”

    Yes. depending on the return. I target Barbashev around 8-12.

    ———-

    “If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?”

    shut your whore mouth.

    ———–

    “What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?”

    they traded the pick for a top pairing (real deal) D.

  5. blainer says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    I would seriously consider seeing if NYI would trade Griffin Reinhart for our#3

    Think he will be NHL ready this year. Think he will be capable of top 4 minute by the end of 14/15. Will not score much at NHL level but may offset the defensive indifference (similar to Sam Gagner) of Justin Schultz.

    Allows Oilers to leave Nurse in CHL and not have too green a D here next year

    It then becomes imperative to trade for a 2C

    I wouldn’t trade for Reinhart if Ekblad is still available. Have to wonder how interested The islanders would be in that trade as they are also in need of quality D.

  6. elpolodiablo says:

    I personally like Bennet however I think management feel that he is very simmilar to Gilbert Brule thus the love for Draisitl. I’m not enamoured with Mactavish as the GM, I think hiring a new coach when you said you were going to get an assistant for the prior one and then saying you are going to be judged on that choice… subsequently face palm tanking during the season to the point that you are out of the playoffs in december and then standing up after the season saying you have the right coach and you made the right decision, to me is incredulous. If they trade Yakupov for size or for supposed deficiencies that they think they have identified it just means 8 more years in the wilderness and a joke of a franchise

  7. Traktor says:

    Draisaitl scored more points and has more size. He reminds me of Joe Thornton.

    I haven’t really seen Bennett..

  8. Philosophil says:

    Lt – great questions. Going full contrarian here….

    Three years ago Landeskog was the best choice for the team – i really like Nuge, but Landeskog brought man strength.

    Two years ago Galchenyuk was the dark horse right choice, but Oilers were risk averse.

    Last year – Nurse was good, could argue for Nikushkin.

    This year its Dal Colle. He is what they need. Does it address the C need? not directly. That is MacT’s job.

    I’m out….

  9. David says:

    1.) Draisaitl
    2.) No
    3.) No
    4.) No
    5.) the Oilers will perceive him as a different player than the ones they already have in their top six because he’s “big” even though he’s not that big and not physical. That said huge fan and looking forward to him joining the fold.

  10. denny33 says:

    1. Sam Bennett, by a mile.

    2. Never.

    3. Return would have to be ridiculous. Not very likely.

    4. Not necessarily.

    5. Oiler management – smartest guys in the league- just ask them.

  11. theoil says:

    I love Ekblad and it would be great for the Oilers to draft him but I don’t think they can afford to wait for him to develop into what Button believe’s he is going to be… If he is available at #3 I would call up MTL and ask what it would take along with the pick to get Subban…

    If they ask for RNH or Hall thanks but no thanks, but if they ask for anyone else, I beg, borrow and steal to get the deal done… this doesn’t answer the 2nd line centre with size problem but its a start…

  12. Jon K says:

    Questions:
    If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
    Do you consider trading up?
    Do you consider trading down?
    If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
    What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?

    1) Extremely hard question to answer. It’s either Draisaitl or Bennett obviously. Draisaitl is significantly older and has the benefit of size at the junior level. However, he has had less development time in terms of years of CHL experience. This year is really one where the scouts are going to be tested in their ability to project: who will be the better NHL player five years from now? For me, I think it’s Bennett, despite Draisaitl having so much of what the team desires right now. Do we believe in BPA or not? If so, I think the answer should be Bennett. I think they draft Draisaitl.
    2) Not this year. No Taylor Hall, MacKinnon, or Crosby type talent.
    3) If Ekblad is gone, yes.
    4) No. A mistake in my view would be taking a player who isn’t in the range for the pick and doesn’t turn out. Draisaitl is in the range by consensus and therefore he would be a reasonable pick, even if he turned out to bust or be inferior to Bennett.
    5) Because Oilers.

  13. Cameron says:

    Ok, first, off-topic, but Anton Belov is returning to the KHL. Thought you might want to know;

    http://en.rsport.ru/hockey/20140416/743125272.html

    1. Edmonton will take Draisatl. Calgary will say ‘thank you’, and take Sam Bennett.

    2. It depends. If your scouts insist the best guy is Ekblad, and the price is right, and Florida is willing to deal, then I guess you do it.

    3. As a Flames fan, I am hoping you don’t. As far as I can tell the Oilers are targeting Draisatl, and leaving Bennett for us. Not sure that happens if you trade down. (that said, Draisatl would look pretty good in Flames silks)

    4. Nope. He’s good, and could be scarey good.

    5. All things being equal, take the bigger guy.

  14. jake70 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    “Do you consider trading down?”

    Yes. depending on the return. I target Barbashev around 8-12.

    I told you I was going to take some notes on Barbashev back during their first round series vs. Blainville. Only saw that one game, game 3, and he was shut down pretty good, (Blainville won 4-1) and didn’t stand out to me.

    So I got nothing for ya…lol.

    Now, in the series he did score 6gp – 4g-6a -10p. Interesting though I was at the top of the stairs with my wheat based beverage waiting for play to stop and a well dressed gent with a nice note pad with leather covering was taking notes frantically next to me. I looked down over his shoulder and saw an official Winnipeg Jets logo on the leather. Scout? Must have been – and where do they draft? — 9th overall. Interesting. Anyone on Winnipeg you like?

  15. hunter1909 says:

    They can’t afford another smallish forward like Bennet, because they’ve already got enough of them *coughs* Sam Gagner.

  16. sliderule says:

    Draisaitl reminds me of Hanzel.Big slow guy who is a second or third line centre.he will disappoint fan base as he is not aggressive.Older birth date.

    Bennett is a great playmaker who will score goals and make plays.He is not a Brule as his aggressiveness is for protection rather than intimidation..Oiler fans will love him even those on this blog.Younger birth date.

    Reinhart is a smart centre who gets his goals from mostly in tight.Great playmaker and smart defensively.The oilers would like to see mor aggression.Older birth date but has delivered the goods when younger.

    DalColle could end up the best of bunch.Good size at over 6-2 and will end up at at probably 210 plus.
    Great shot and good skating both in speed and agility.Think a slower more agile Hall.Young birth date same as Bennett.

    I have watched all four of these player and for my money I would take Bennett or DalColle over either of the other two.

  17. Rondo says:

    LT,

    I would want to know more about Bennett, do the scouts think he will be bigger and stronger based on his frame. You also said LT :

    “He posted a poor 5×5/60 and even though his underlying numbers look good the qual comp was soft and he didn’t have tough zone starts.”

    Regarding Draisaitl I would like to know some advanced stats like above ( Bennett) and also do Oilers think they can improve his skating

  18. Vince says:

    If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
    Draisaitl I guess.

    Do you consider trading up?
    I don’t think that would be very hard to do. I think teams 1-5 and Nashville would find moving down in exchange for an established player tempting, bad move for EDM
    Do you consider trading down?
    Trading down is a good idea if you can get your 2c and a real dman without giving up Ebs or Yak
    If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
    I have no idea but if they traded the pick to fill a hole with a legit player I probably wouldn’t complain.
    What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?
    assuming they’d send him back to junior I can’t think of one.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jake70: I told you I was going to take some notes on Barbashev back during their first round series vs. Blainville. Only saw that one game, game 3, and he was shut down pretty good, (Blainville won 4-1) and didn’t stand out to me.

    So I got nothing for ya…lol.

    Now, in the series he did score 6gp – 4g-6a -10p.Interesting though I was at the top of the stairs with my wheat based beverage waiting for play to stop and a well dressed gent with a nice note pad with leather covering was taking notes frantically next to me.I looked down over his shoulder and saw an official Winnipeg Jets logo on the leather.Scout?Must have been – and where do they draft? — 9th overall.Interesting.Anyone on Winnipeg you like?

    Thanks for the attempt at any rate.

    Can’t always catch them in a single game.

    WPG? well… the big targets are obviously Buf and Kane. Love either or both.

  20. godot10 says:

    1) I’m undecided at this point, but prefer Bennett.
    2) No. Too costly.

    3) Yep

    Scenario: Say Florida takes Ekblad, and Buffalo takes Bennett or Draisaitl, and Reinhart is on the board. Do you call Snow and say, I’ll take the #5 and Josh Bailey, if they haven’t deferred until next year. Or if Buffalo has the pick, maybe Tim Murray calls and offers you Grigorenko and the #5. One would then pick the guy who did not go #2 or Dal Colle at #5. And have a centre and Dal Colle. I don’t move down further than #5 though.

    Scenario: If Ekblad is on the board, you make the call to Holmgren about Couturier (and a 2nd rounder)

    4) No.

    5) They think Draisaitl can play next year. They think Draisaitl is a better match for Yakupov. Size. MacT like Nilsson over Glencross.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    anyone found a link for the Barons’ game?

  22. dykema8 says:

    Draft Bennett! he’s the exact kind of character guy the oil need. Draisatl is bigger and what not but bennett pushes the pace and is an in your face kind of player. the real question is…if florida take ekblad, and buffalo takes bennett. do we take reinhart? he’s another nuge kind of player but I’m a firm believer in drafting best player available. either way, if the oil draft any of the top four ranked guys I’ll be content. But if I had a choice it would be bennett.

  23. hags9k says:

    1. Bennett
    2. No.
    3. Yes, of course consider it but the price has to be high. Unlikely.
    4. Not sure it’s a mistake but highly suspect it. Without being able to see Bennett and only once Leon,, my feeling is the fans won’t be enamoured with his style. Give me the smaller guy if he’s the more fierce competitor. Their production is similar.
    5. They won’t trust going to battle with baby Nuge and Bennett against CGY and Monahan, and Leon. Because size, because WHL, because Oilers.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule: he will disappoint fan base as he is not aggressive

    hags9k: my feeling is the fans won’t be enamoured with his style

    I just want to make sure these aren’t posed as arguments against picking a given players?

  25. gcw_rocks says:

    Sabres had as crappy season and fired all their assistant coaches. Hello Craig, are you paying attention?

  26. Vince says:

    Trading down can mean a lot of things, out of the top 5? the top 10? the 2nd round? I know there’s two months+ to debate the pick but to not add the possibility of a straight trade of pick for player or player and 2nd rounder to the discussion is crazy. I don’t think there’s any way this pick isn’t going to be shopped….HARD.

  27. hunter1909 says:

    hags9k: They won’t trust going to battle with baby Nuge and Bennett against CGY and Monahan, and Leon. Because size, because WHL, because Oilers.

    With respect, this is nonsense. In fact, it’s the biggest red herring sold on Lowetide.

    In reality, Oilers have been running tiny centers against large ones ever since Dalles used to have their evil way, year after year. How has that worked?

  28. Mr DeBakey says:

    godot10: MacT like Nilsson over Glencross.

    MacT liked Nilsson. Loved his skill. Saw him as the other winger to Hemsky.

    Kevin Lowe, the GENERAL MANAGER, didn’t re-sign Glencross.

  29. stevezie says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: WPG? well… the big targets are obviously Buf and Kane. Love either or both.

    Mid-season there was talk they might move Ladd, and I think I’d prefer him to Kane. Much less upside, obviously, but less risk. You get a guy who is what he is rather than a project. You get a leader, a physical winger, someone who play both ends. Doesn’t he? You get a lot of things we lack.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    Mr DeBakey: MacT liked Nilsson. Loved his skill. Saw him as the other winger to Hemsky.

    Kevin Lowe, the GENERAL MANAGER, didn’t re-sign Glencross.

    Ah. The old bait and switch.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    stevezie: Mid-season there was talk they might move Ladd, and I think I’d prefer him to Kane. Much less upside, obviously, but less risk. You get a guy who is what he is rather than a project. You get a leader, a physical winger, someone who play both ends. Doesn’t he? You get a lot of things we lack.

    I don’t buy the risk with Kane.

    I’m radically skeptical of these kinds of character stories that bubble up.

    Read any book about players in the old days — say Gzowski’s on the old Oil — and show the same concern over this stuff… you wouldn’t have any of them on your team.

    If anything, I’d target this stuff (within reason obviously). great way to exploit market inefficiencies.

  32. stevezie says:

    Am I the only one who sees Draisaitl’s size as an argument against him? Considering his birthday, there’s always the possibility that he looks dominant because he is bigger than everyone else. I’d say this makes him riskier than Bennet, whose youth makes him likely to get bigger.

    I have Bennet ahead of Draisaitl, but it’s close enough that I’ll be happy either way.

  33. stephen sheps says:

    I wish I would have seen the big german kid play live. I have however seen both Ekblad and Bennett and was underwhelmed (which I know is not a word but i’m using it anyway–to borrow a phrase from Blackdog via Sloan). It might not be a popular sentiment, especially given that I live in Kingston (for 8 more days!!! I’m almost free!) but I really didn’t see Bennett that great. He looks and plays like a less talented but more impulsive and undisciplined Nuge. My only reservation about Ekblad is how much more time it will take until he’s ready, because as great as he is, he’s not Doughty good, even with the unusual 15 year old start in the OHL. There’s nothing about either of them that screams “this guy is the next big thing” to me. Hall did that. Yak did that. These guys don’t. I’m disappointed to be sure, but I know that most on this space are relatively sensible and grounded enough to know that this pick won’t be the player that pushes a team full of holes into a contender. The hope, at least for me, is that whomever they decide to pick becomes a solid complimentary piece who will fit well into the makeup of the team. No matter who they pick, this team is a long way off from glory. However fretting over getting it wrong so that whomever Calgary takes doesn’t burn us is a foolish game to play as a fan-base. It’s all a crapshoot anyway, as from what I can tell, (which isn’t an accurate or even subjectively good indicator of talent or skill), none of these kids are quite in the same league as some of the prospects taken in the last 3-4 draft classes.

    -end rant.

  34. cabbiesmacker says:

    What should the Oilers do? Trade the pick + Gagner if thats even possible + prospect (s) for a legit top 2 D. Boring but it’s what they need the most to move forward.

    What will the Oilers do? In all likelihood they have their usual tunnel vision on full high and will take the German. It’ll be interesting to watch Calgary take one of Reinhart (if available) or Bennet and rub the Oilers collective noses in it for years to come.

    If I’m picking and Ekblad and Reinhart are gone I’m taking Bennet, holding my breath on Dal Colle, and praying Perlini doesn’t develop a mean streak and become Lucic light

    I don’t take Drysaddle earlier than 5th in this draft. I don’t see the skating to play C in the bigs and too many are caught up in thinking he’s the natural pick because he has size and can play, (so we hear), C

    Spoke with a scout last night and he just shook his head at the lack of respect for Reinhart out there other that what we hear from Button. Told me the kid is hands down the best of the bunch including Ekblad. Calgary will likely grab him if the three above pass which is doubtful in the case of Florida and Buffalo.

    The kids I’m most interested in watching develop the next 3 years? Perlini, Bennet, and Dal Colle

  35. stevezie says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: If anything, I’d target this stuff (within reason obviously). great way to exploit market inefficiencies.

    I agree with this. I was actually referring at least as much to on-ice stuff. He still scored okay this year, but I keep reading how one-dimensional he is, and how he has all these tools but is having trouble putting it together.

    Obviously it would depend the the asking prices, but I think I would rather have a known quality with a smaller salary who will cost me less assets. This team could use a sure thing.

    I just meant I’d target Ladd first. I would take Kane. Always bet on talent.

  36. Zangetsu says:

    Still trying to get over the title. Is this still an oilers blog? Is it part of “THE PLAN” to have a plan? I’m completely flummoxed

  37. spoiler says:

    LT said…

    Questions:

    1. If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
    2. Do you consider trading up?
    3. Do you consider trading down?
    4. If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
    What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?

    1. Impossible to say. The top 5 are so close together that the intangibles come into play. We know nothing about each of these player’s work habits, dedication, determination, compete levels, fear points, teamwork, game-to-game consistency etc etc. Intangibles will be the determining factors in any choice since math doesn’t separate them.

    I suspect from the verbiage we’re getting that Bennett wins the intangible race, but it is impossible to know for sure. I highly doubt the Oilers will make their decision till after the combine, when they get a chance to interview and do some off-ice testing.

    2. Are we going to make a 2nd or 3rd rounder magically appear? We don’t have the assets to make this happen.

    3. I find it hilarious when people start saying things like the 5th and Bailey for the 3rd. No GM is that stupid. If I recall the going rate to move up a couple of picks is a 3rd round pick. Now do we make that deal… a 5th and a 3rd rounder for our 3rd?

    Maybe but I doubt it.

    All the good centres are at the top of this draft and you might still lose your target in the intervening two picks. Not to mention this isn’t a deep draft so acquiring a deeper round pick has less value. Trading down is rarely a good idea, because of the fact you might lose your target and because of the optics of comparing to the player that was took with the pick you traded.

    4. If they have the option of acquiring Draisaitl or acquiring an actual NHL player that fits a need, then drafting Draisaitl is incredibly stupid. Also slower big men at forward can take as long to develop as defensemen, if not longer (see J. Thornton, Penner, etc).

    5. Depends on how he got his points. If it was all on the powerplay, or against soft comp, or a good portion on the wing, then I stay away.

    Dal Colle has been coming into the conversation more and more. He played the last couple of months at C, wonder if he is doing the same in the playoffs? When I watch him, he reminds me of Modano.

    Also, keep in mind, Bennett, Draisaitl, Dal Colle and Hopkins are left-handed shots. Ideally you would want to draft a rightie. Especially since your best player plays left wing! That makes Reinhart the target. And Hopkins has the defensive chops to play the Couturier/O’Reilly role on this team. Reinhart for 1C, Nuge for 2C.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    stevezie: I agree with this. I was actually referring at least as much to on-ice stuff. He still scored okay this year, but I keep reading how one-dimensional he is, and how he has all these tools but is having trouble putting it together.

    Obviously it would depend the the asking prices, but I think I would rather have a known quality with a smaller salary who will cost me less assets. This team could use a sure thing.

    I just meant I’d target Ladd first. I would take Kane. Always bet on talent.

    I don’t have a problem with Ladd… But I prefer Kane’s youth and power.

    Kane’s doing fine by the old usage chart FWIW:

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/winnipeg-jets/2013#player-usage-chart

  39. prairieschooner says:

    I think I got this right
    Eckblad 6′ 3″
    Dreisaitl 6′ 1″
    Bennet 6′ 0″
    Reinhart 6′ 0″
    I do not list cheeseburger consumption
    I would not consider any of these guys as big.

  40. FastOil says:

    As to the question – Depends. I wear them, you won’t be disappointed (but perhaps slightly damp).

    It is not easy to think in a context of constantly changing information and priorities. Especially if the time frame is arbitrarily short as in draft rounds.

    The good GM’s know what they want and specifically which players. For example Tambellini didn’t have that knowledge which was exposed in Oil Change, and as far as I am concerned it is inexcusable and the main reason for his failure.

    Edit:

    1. If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?

    – assuming no compelling offer Bennett because of age

    Do you consider trading up?

    – only as part of a bigger thing

    Do you consider trading down?

    – only as part of a bigger thing

    If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?

    – No. We can only look at the info available and guess. It’s up to the boys to make their careers something special that a top 5 pick has a great chance at.

    What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?

    – Size. The draft doesn’t want to give the Oilers skilled size, excepting the Russian. Still they have to take the BPA and make a deal. Sure it’s hard, but if it wasn’t we’d all be MacT.

    As MacT said talk is cheap.

  41. orangepylon says:

    Posted this elsewhere as well

    Ridiculous proposition for you all. Would you be willing to trade next year’s first round pick for another top five pick in this year’s draft? This scenario being only remotely plausible if there was the chance to take ekblad in addition to one of those top centres. Not saying any of the gm’s would make this deal, nor am I saying the players we would pick could immediately step in and fill the gaping holes in our current lineup. I just can’t fathom another year where we would be eligible to potentially draft first overall. Maybe that’s just wishful thinking.

  42. stevezie says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yeah, there is always the risk that the verbal scouting reports are influenced by perceptions about his attitude. I don’t watch enough Jets to have a strong opinion.

  43. Pouzar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I don’t have a problem with Ladd… But I prefer Kane’s youth and power.

    Kane’s doing fine by the old usage chart FWIW:

    http://www.extraskater.com/team/winnipeg-jets/2013#player-usage-chart

    I’ll take a pass on “The Natural” unless he could be had without giving up any of the core pieces.

    The guy has below average puck skills with below average hockey sense. As far as character issues are concerned I live in WPG and have heard enough “stories” to know where there is smoke there is fire. But that’s just me. I’d rather Buff here as a winger/d-man hybrid.

  44. limit says:

    This draft reminds me of the 2006 draft where the top 5 were pretty much interchangeable, of varying playing styles and all turned out to be good players:
    E.Johnson ~ Ekblad
    J.Staal ~ Draisaitl
    Toews ~ Bennett
    Backstrom ~ Reinhart
    Kessel ~ Dal Colle
    Imagine how many cup Pens would win had they picked Toews instead of Staal?

  45. godot10 says:

    orangepylon:
    Posted this elsewhere as well

    Ridiculous proposition for you all. Would you be willing to trade next year’s first round pick for another top five pick in this year’s draft? This scenario being only remotely plausible if there was the chance to take ekblad in addition to one of those top centres. Not saying any of the gm’s would make this deal, nor am I saying the players we would pick could immediately step in and fill the gaping holes in our current lineup. I just can’t fathom another year where we would be eligible to potentially draft first overall. Maybe that’s just wishful thinking.

    The NHL just struck a committee to consider flattening the draft probability curve even for next season, plus there are two Stamkos quality or better picks next year.

    The Oilers are 25 points out of a playoff spot. It is very unusual for a team to improve that much in a season. Even an improvement of 15 points probably will only get the Oilers to 12th in the West and 24th in the league.

    So it is a really bad idea to trade next years pick.

  46. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    It has proved to be a very good reason for not drafting or trading for a player.

    Some of my favorite players have not been all that aggressive but Mr Lowe and cohorts usually find an excuse to get rid of them.

    So why bother drafting them and giving them away a la Cogliano.

  47. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    limit:
    This draft reminds me of the 2006 draft where the top 5 were pretty much interchangeable, of varying playing styles and all turned out to be good players:
    E.Johnson ~ Ekblad
    J.Staal ~ Draisaitl
    Toews ~ Bennett
    Backstrom ~ Reinhart
    Kessel ~ Dal Colle
    Imagine how many cup Pens would win had they picked Toews instead of Staal?

    In his draft year, J. Staal went
    68 28-40-68 (1 PPG)

    Draisaitl this year:
    64 38-67-105 (1.6406 PPG)

    He has one less assist than Staal did total points.

    Like all the prospects this year… there are some issues with Draisaitl, but let’s try not to be so convinced any of these players are going to stumble.

    ps. the weird thing about the 2006 draft is that Staal is the only player taken in the top 5 from the CHL.

  48. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    It has proved to be a very good reason for not draftingor trading for a player.

    Some of my favorite players have not been all that aggressive but Mr Lowe and cohorts usually find an excuse to get rid of them.

    So why bother drafting them and giving them away a la Cogliano.

    that’s an interesting argument.

    I think if MacT drafts a guy he’s watched play a number of games and has talked to a number of times… you can park your “competitive drive, etc.” concerns in a parking lot off the Thunder Bay highway somewhere.

  49. limit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    True, but J Staal was one of the youngest players in the draft whereas Draisatl is a late birthday.

    Anyhow, Oiler fans can always fill another big hole next year at D (Hanifin, Kylington) or C (mcDavid, Eichel, Barzal, Konecny) if they choose one way or another!

  50. Rondo says:

    I’m hearing the 2020 draft is possibly the strongest draft ever.

  51. VanOil says:

    First I reject the notion that there is a top 5 or top 4 in this draft and it is down to personnel preference. MacT is Snowing you. It is Reinhart, he is the BPA and it is not even close.

    As for the questions asked;
    1. If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
    Draisaitl

    2. Do you consider trading up?
    Nope, a even prettier pretty young thing is not the tipping point for the Oilers right now.

    3. Do you consider trading down?
    Yep, a real life hairy arsed 1D is the tipping point for the Oilers right now.

    4. If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
    Nope, but if they think he can be a legitimate top 6 player before he turns 21 they are mistaken.

    5. What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?
    I buy the birth certificate argument in his favor, much like I discount Ekblad due to the advantages of early physiological development. That being said the truculence and grit arguments in Bennetts favor leave me cold. I won’t dock a player for being an asshole but I will not give him bonus points for it especially in the elite end of the draft.

  52. VanOil says:

    Rondo:
    I’m hearing the 2020 draft is possibly the strongest draft ever.

    The first draft a female player will be selected.

  53. VanOil says:

    If MTL does not win tonight they might have a reasonable argument too kick the dog. The Corgi’s are miss behaving.

  54. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I know Mact and I respect his knowledge and opinion of players.

    He is not the one that will make the decision to move on from a player for lack of aggression

    Six rings specializes in this.MPS and Cogliano will give references.

  55. edoil1 says:

    gcw_rocks,

    If he fired Bucky and Smith they would probably replace them with Semenko and /or any other former oiler in need of a good full time job.The hell with looking at any other possibilities.Kevin would just Google” former unemployed Oilers”no other qualifications required,put you suggestions in the suggestion box,I know we haven’t opened it for 8 years and it has cobweb’s on it.Just be a good old Oiler, be quiet,get paycheck,and repeat this process.

  56. Ducey says:

    edoil1:
    gcw_rocks,

    If he fired Bucky and Smith they would probably replace them with Semenko and /or any other former oiler in need of a good full time job.The hell with looking at any other possibilities.Kevin would just Google” former unemployed Oilers”noother qualifications required,put you suggestions in the suggestion box,I know we haven’t opened it for 8 years and it has cobweb’s on it.Just be a good old Oiler, be quiet,get paycheck,and repeat this process.

    Right. MacT’s two coaching hires so far are Eakins and Acton.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    limit: True, but J Staal was one of the youngest players in the draft whereas Draisatl is a late birthday.

    Yep. that’s a real thing. Reinhart too.

    Birthday bias has to be accounted for.

    Still, I’m firmly against knee-capping these players before they’ve even been drafted.

  58. OilClog says:

    1. Trade for Spezza
    2. Trade for Big Buff
    3. Trade for Dubinsky
    4. Trade for Dion
    5. Trade for Weber :)

    We will take the big German, trade Gagner for more picks, try and sign whatever D is the flavour.

  59. edoil1 says:

    Rondo,

    Nothing like the 2035 draft where the Oil will” look “Sketchy” to draft grandbaby “Gretzky”.

  60. gr8one says:

    This is a tough, tough call to me…

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Sam-Bennett

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014/NHL-Draft-Profiles/Leon-Draisaitl

    If you read both of those reports, man oh man they both sound like awesome fits for us, and I will be happy with either choice.

    My hearts says Draisatl but if I’m being honest I think I’m swayed by his size. My head says Bennett, and the biggest separating factor that keeps me going back to him is his birthday.

    Sam Bennett
    BIRTHDAY:
    1996-06-20

    vs

    Leon Draisaitl
    BIRTHDAY:
    1995-10-27

    That difference can be huge with kids their age…Bennett is significantly younger and still had a fantastic season, I just feel he will have a higher ceiling, long term.

    But I certainly won’t be disappointed if we pick Drais.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I know Mact and I respect his knowledge and opinion of players.

    He is not the one thatwill make the decision to move on from a player for lack of aggression

    Six ringsspecializes in this.MPS and Cogliano will give references.

    I don’t buy any of this.

  62. edoil1 says:

    Ducey,

    Acton played for the Oilers.

  63. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That’s because you don’t know anyone connected with game or have ever played.
    Right!

  64. Pretendergast says:

    Im watching the montreal game and i just cannot stand glen healy. Hell of a game but hes ruining the experience. ‘lindback on his knees can be taken advantage of.’ How glenn? If we want to grow the game of hockey at least do us a favour and bring in interesting and intelligent talent like ferraro. Take note on what not to do rogers.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That’s because you don’t know anyone connected with game or have ever played.
    Right!

    You got it.

  66. gr8one says:

    limit:
    This draft reminds me of the 2006 draft where the top 5 were pretty much interchangeable, of varying playing styles and all turned out to be good players:
    E.Johnson ~ Ekblad
    J.Staal ~ Draisaitl
    Toews ~ Bennett
    Backstrom ~ Reinhart
    Kessel ~ Dal Colle
    Imagine how many cup Pens would win had they picked Toews instead of Staal?

    The thing about Toews is his stat line that reads “6’2″, 208 lbs.”…if Bennett had that stat, I think he’d be the slam dunk consensus first overall, conversely.

    That being said, he doesn’t and won’t.

    Good post btw, I think it’s pretty accurate.

  67. Pretendergast says:

    Sorry for the threadjacking, mact is losing my confidence by the day, but other than mistakes and risk factor, what exactly is stopping a group of young d from playing well in the nhl? Nobody had to mentor doughty, pk, letang, weber, granted these are fantastic players but i believe ekblad and nurse could one day be in those conversations. Whats the worst that could happen, kevin lowe loses his job?

  68. edoil1 says:

    Pretendergast,

    Kevin Lowe has more job security than Fidel Castro.

  69. gr8one says:

    Pretendergast:
    . Whats the worst that could happen, kevin lowe loses his job?

    Strike “loses” and insert “keeps”, and I think you have the answer to that question.

  70. mumbai max says:

    prairieschooner:
    I think I got this right
    Eckblad6′ 3″
    Dreisaitl6′ 1″
    Bennet6′ 0″
    Reinhart6′ 0″
    I do not list cheeseburger consumption
    I would not consider any of these guys as big

    Agreed. And another thing! RNH is 6’1″, yet we never hear the description ‘big centre’, like we do with Draisaitl. Why is that?

    I have said this before, but we all bitch and complain about ‘compete level’, Aside from the
    fact it is a ridiculous use of the language, doesn’t it make choosing Bennett obvious? Don’t we want a Doug Gilmour to go with our Happy Gilmores?

  71. edoil1 says:

    I will give Mct credit for getting a couple of goalies that at least will give us a chance to start the season,but one top 4D is a must,or it could unravel quickly.Here’s hoping.

  72. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    mumbai max: Agreed. And another thing! RNH is 6’1″, yet we never hear the description ‘big centre’, like we do with Draisaitl. Why is that?

    because size is more than “height”?

  73. slopitch says:

    Development wise, Bennett sounds like Turris or Drouin. Needs a year or 2 in juniors. I’m fine with this.

    If that’s the case, keep Gagner one more year or move Gagner+ for better 2 way C.

    The best play might be to trade the pick. “Just make sure you don’t do anything stupid”.

  74. Jordan says:

    Questions:
    If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
    Do you consider trading up?
    Do you consider trading down?
    If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
    What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?

    1 – Leon
    2 – Yes
    3 – Yes
    4 – No
    5 – Team Need

  75. mumbai max says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: because size is more than “height”?

    Of course. But i find it hard to believe that 15 0r 20 lbs can move you from being a ‘big center’, to being a ‘smallish center’. (or vice versa)

    Also, using your argument, Hall Perron and Yak are also not ‘smallish forwards’. So, who are our ‘smallish forwards? Gagner. Eberle. Gagner is gone soon (fingers crossed)

    We have this narrative about the size of the Oilers top 6 that is nether accurate nor relevant. The issue we have is with desire and drive on every shift. That is our problem, not a spare inch here or there.

    I think Bennett could be a culture changer.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    mumbai max: Of course. But i find it hard to believe that 15 0r 20 lbs can move you from being a ‘big center’, to being a ‘smallish center’. (or vice versa)

    I’m not sure why. 20 lbs is a fair amount of difference, esp. at that age.

    mumbai max: Also, using your argument,

    I haven’t made an argument, I offered a plausible answer to your question concerning why some players are described using some terms and not others.

    The only factor you considered was height. weight was an obvious rejoinder.

    FWIW, I’ve found the term “big center” in the way you are imputing it commentators, is less about actual vital stats and more about some perception of playing style.

    mumbai max: We have this narrative about the size of the Oilers top 6 that is nether accurate nor relevant. The issue we have is with desire and drive on every shift. That is our problem, not a spare inch here or there.
    I think Bennett could be a culture changer.

    I completely agree that size is a largely overblown factor.

    I radically disagree that culture is relevant. IMO “culture” is even more prone to bias than “size!”

  77. Kitchener says:

    1. Bennett or GerGretz. Even if Ekblad’s on the table, I’d strongly consider one of these C’s.
    2. No way.
    3. Not unless it’s part of a package that returns a top-shelf player/prospect with high likelihood of being our 1D or 1/2C.
    4. It’s hard to answer this question without more knowledge. It’d be a bummer to waste a #3 pick’s value on a #5-type player, but if GerGretz is an ideal fit then it’s a good pick.
    5. Name is too similar to #89.

  78. limit says:

    gr8one,

    Thanks!

    By the way, does anyone know which of the centres in consideration is the best face off man? Oilers need a very good one to compensate for Nuge. Re big centres – the Datsyuk/Zetterberg combo works pretty well no?

  79. mumbai max says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I’m not sure why. 20 lbs is a fair amount of difference, esp. at that age.

    I haven’t made an argument, I offered a plausible answer to your question concerning why some players are described using some terms and not others.

    The only factor you considered was height. weight was an obvious rejoinder.

    FWIW, I’ve found the term “big center” in the way you are imputing it commentators, is less about actual vital stats and more about some perception of playing style.

    I completely agree that size is a largely overblown factor.

    I radically disagree that culture is relevant. IMO “culture” is even more prone to bias than “size!”

    I am not able to manipulate this system to respond to each item separately.

    But I will make a few comments anyway.

    I think 20 pounds should move you from Biggish to Big, not from Smallish to Big.

    I radically disagree with your radical disagreement about culture. As someone who has hired, developed and managed high performance teams for decades, my experience is that there are people in a group who drive a positive culture and people who drive a negative culture. It is often unrelated to their spot on the hierarchy of skill or position. Surely this exists on sports teams as well.

    I can also address the concern about ‘addition by subtraction’ at this point. Removing a negative culture driver can be as effective as adding a positive one. Hence the need to move Gagner. Hence the desire to add Bennett.

  80. hunter1909 says:

    Mike Comrie shows real talent as an actor.

  81. hunter1909 says:

    mumbai max: As someone who has hired, developed and managed high performance teams for decades

    Although I’m 100% certain that you’re telling the truth…Lowetide already has more than enough chiefs. Plenty of room in economy class.

  82. Ducey says:

    1.If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
    2.Do you consider trading up?
    3.Do you consider trading down?
    4.If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
    5.What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?

    1. The one with the most “compete”. I am assuming that is Bennett given his 118 PIMs. That was good for 16th in the OHL. Pretty good for a guy in his draft year who also has top end skill. I also have not heard anyone dis’ Bennetts skating. Any comparison to Brule seems unfair as Gilbert had some issues with confidence which derailed him. I am hoping for a Giroux.

    2. No need to trade up as the top 4 are all comparable in position of need and ability.

    3. Trading down would be a mistake. The Oilers need a top C.

    4. Not sure on Draisaitl. His poor skating, early birthday and lack of physical presence scares me.

    5. The would likely be a few reasons they pass on Bennett. They may have concerns about his game translating to the NHL and bigger players.

  83. mumbai max says:

    hunter1909: Although I’m 100% certain that you’re telling the truth…Lowetide already has more than enough chiefs. Plenty of room in economy class.

    You are mixing your metaphors.

    And although I am telling the truth, for you to be 100% sure of it shows a vast amount of gullibility on your part.

  84. Ducey says:

    limit:
    gr8one,

    Thanks!

    By the way, does anyone know which of the centres in consideration is the best face off man?Oilers need a very good one to compensate for Nuge. Re big centres – the Datsyuk/Zetterberg combo works pretty well no?

    I don’t think you will find FO% for junior players anywhere.

    I was looking for even strength scoring for the top 3 C’s . Anyone seen any numbers that indicate how much of their O was on the PP?

  85. Bank Shot says:

    I’d take Bennett all day, every day.

    He sounds like a faster, more skilled, center version of Perron.

    Who wouldn’t want that?

    People have talked a lot about Ekblad being a great junior perhaps because of his size. Does the same hold true for Draisatl? Is he going to be able to hold the puck long enough to make plays in the NHL when every D-man is 200+? It works for Thornton to turn his ass, but he’s 6’4″ and 230 not 6’1″ 205.

  86. limit says:

    Ducey,

    Here’s what I got (ignoring SH):
    Reinhart: 105pts (40pp) so 65ev in 60GP
    Bennett: 91pts (29pp) so 62ev in 57GP
    Draisaitl: 105pts (40pp) so 65ev in 64GP
    Dal Colle: 95pts (43pp) so 52ev in 67GP
    Looks pretty “even” for the top 3…

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    mumbai max: I am not able to manipulate this system to respond to each item separately.

    highlight what you want to quote and hit the quote button.

    mumbai max: I think 20 pounds should move you from Biggish to Big, not from Smallish to Big.

    As I said above, I don’t think there’s much need to debate why hockey commentators use these words for some players and not others. They are distributed in an incredibly biased manner.

    My initial point was merely to say weight is surely a factor. You acknowledged that was the case. We have no disagreement here.

    mumbai max: As someone who has hired, developed and managed high performance teams for decades, my experience is that there are people in a group who drive a positive culture and people who drive a negative culture. It is often unrelated to their spot on the hierarchy of skill or position. Surely this exists on sports teams as well.
    I can also address the concern about ‘addition by subtraction’ at this point. Removing a negative culture driver can be as effective as adding a positive one. Hence the need to move Gagner. Hence the desire to add Bennett.

    This is all very interesting.

    It doesn’t change the fact that “culture” and the words we associate with it is easily one of the more fungible concepts used in hockey talk.

    It is far too bias prone to be reliable and we know far too little about the actual people involved to be able to make judgements on this basis.

  88. G Money says:

    Real data on NHL C:

    - Data from 2012-13
    - All players (233) listed primarily as C (e.g. includes C/LW but not LW/C) who played at least one game (I may filter it to reduce the count to a more realistic list, but for the purposes of getting a distribution, it should be OK)

    Mean 196.5 lbs
    Median 196
    Mode 200
    Standard Deviation 14.473
    Minimum 153
    Maximum 245

    The distribution histogram can be seen here:
    http://i.imgur.com/wq7oukt.png

    Looking at the data and the histogram, I would say that the vast majority of C in the NHL are in the range of something like 190lbs to 208 lbs – there are big dropoffs, “shoulders” if you like – at those points. A 20 lb difference for a centreman would take you all the way from the low shoulder to the high shoulder, so I would say yes, a 20 lb difference could be legitimately claimed to take a C all the way from small to big in the NHL.

  89. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    I have a strange feeling about this off season and the Oilers……….. like just before your buddy asks you to help move type feeling.

    You know you want to tell him to fuck off but you can’t cause bro code demands you suck it up.

    I like Draisatl, watching him I honestly was impressed, he seems very…………cerebral, calm.

    I’m not sure about the fit with the Oilers?

    Bennett seems more MacTavish/Eakins type player.

    I just hope Ekblad is gone by the time the Oilers pick, he’s the only player in the top 5 I think has risk.

  90. Ducey says:

    Ducey: I don’t think you will find FO% for junior players anywhere.

    I was looking for even strength scoring for the top 3 C’s .Anyoneseen any numbers that indicate how much of their O was on the PP?

    To answer my own question:

    Reinhart 60 GP 12 PPG 28 PPA 105 pts overall. 1.75 ppg 38% of offense on PP.
    Draisaitl 64 GP 12 PPG 28 PPA 105 pts overall (freaky) 1.64 ppg 38% of offense on PP.
    Bennett 57 GP 10 PPG 19 PPA 91 pts overall 1.60 ppg 32% of offense on PP.

    Dal Colle 67 GP 16 PPG 27 PPA 95 pts 1.42 ppg 45% of offense on PP.

    Based on this you have to be worried about Dal Colle as a ton of his points came on the PP.

    The other three are pretty comparable, but again Bennett seems to be a little less dependent on the PP to generate his points.

    Edit: Thanks Limit

  91. limit says:

    Ducey,

    Interesting!

    Similarly in playoffs:
    Dal Colle: 8GP 16PTS (9 on PP) 7ev
    Reinhart: 13GP 23PTS(9 on PP) 14ev
    Bennett: 7GP 9PTS (2 on PP) 7ev
    Draisaitl: 4GP 3PTS (0 on PP) 3ev

  92. spoiler says:

    Ducey: To answer my own question:Reinhart 60 GP 12 PPG 28 PPA 105 pts overall. 1.75 ppg 38% of offense on PP.Draisaitl 64 GP 12 PPG 28 PPA 105 pts overall (freaky) 1.64 ppg 38% of offense on PP.Bennett 57 GP 10 PPG 19 PPA 91 pts overall 1.60 ppg 32% of offense on PP.Dal Colle 67 GP 16 PPG 27 PPA 95 pts 1.42 ppg 45% of offense on PP.Based on this you have to be worried about Dal Colle as a ton of his points came on the PP.The other three are pretty comparable, but again Bennett seems to be a little less dependent on the PP to generate his points.Edit: Thanks Limit

    Nice. Thanks, Duce. I also liked your answers above. I think we’re pretty much in agreement except I would like a RHS for Centre. I think Bennett would be my second choice and Draisaitl my third (depending somewhat on Dal Colle’s playoffs).

    I also wonder how the respective powerplays performed and if that might be skewing each of the three prospects point totals. Is Bennett’s lower powerplay totals a result of a poorer powerplay, or is he not suited to the powerplay or is he an EV hoss?

    And I also wonder about linemate effects. A lot. But haven’t had the time to suss it out and see if linemates are biasing the numbers in any way. Got bloody hockey pools to do.

  93. frjohnk says:

    My thoughts on Draisaitl.

    Cons- did not show well in WJ’s, prospect game. Was shut down in playoffs. But who wouldn’t be? Big Griff is a stud.
    - late birthdate, if born 6 weeks earlier, would have been eligible for 2013 draft and with 0.90 PTs/ game would have went mid first round.
    - is over 20 pounds heavier than average junior player. So he is a man amongst boys. But his size probably won’t be much more than average in NHL.
    -listening to Dave Jamieson today and it was mentioned that “Draisaitl is not always engaged away from the puck” by some scouts.
    - skating needs work. Specifically first step quickness, edge work
    - have not read much about his defensive play or anything about him being a two way player.

    Pros
    - great vision
    - great shot
    - great stickhandler
    - it is not easy for a 17 year old to leave their country, learn a new language and culture. We need to consider this when looking at his season last year. 0.90 PTs/game.
    - the type of game where he grew up was more of laid back and not aggressive. He said that was one of the biggest differences when comparing the aggressive and physical WHL. So for those that say he doesn’t use his size, this is one of the reasons. But has gotten better at this aspect.

    I’m on my iphone, but there is a Draisaitl highlight video on youtube for 2013-14. The kid has got skill.
    Check it out.

  94. spoiler says:

    Ryan Murray 24 mins +1 on the night.

    Sorry, channeling DSF for a second.

  95. limit says:

    spoiler,

    On teammates, if this helps here’s ratio between the reg season pt total to next closest teammate:
    Reinhart 105 v Decheneau 98, 107%
    Bennett 91 v Ikonen 70, 139%
    Draisaitl 105 v Josh Morrissey 73, 143%
    Dal Colle 95 v Scott Laughton 87, 109%
    So looks like Draisaitl and Bennett produced heads and shoulders above everybody else on their team.

  96. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    limit:
    spoiler,

    On teammates, if this helps here’s ratio between the reg season pt total to next closest teammate:
    Reinhart 105 v Decheneau 98,107%
    Bennett 91 v Ikonen 70, 139%
    Draisaitl 105 v Josh Morrissey 73, 143%
    Dal Colle 95 v Scott Laughton 87, 109%
    So looks like Draisaitl and Bennett produced heads and shoulders above everybody else on their team.

    the interesting thing there is Draisaitl’s next closest teammate is a defensemen.

    It’s something I’ve thought about more than once without being able to come to something conclusive about what to make of that in terms of an indication of Draisaitl’s future. but it sure is interesting.

    FWIW my guess is that having a great puck moving D might be more valuable for a possession playing center than a high scoring winger (of course, it’s not like teams are zero sum propositions… presumably some of these teams have both)

  97. Caramel Obvious says:

    The only clear mistake would be drafting Ekblad ahead of the forwards. Taking defensemen with a top five pick is a mistake. It is known.

    Even if it wasn’t known the Oilers have a major deficit in skilled forwards, and nothing is harder to find than top flight scorers.

    Between the forwards I don’t think there is a definitive answer. Reinhart wins on performance. Bennett wins on age. Draisatl wins on quality of teammates. This is too close to call from a keyboard.

    Thus the right answer to the question is anybody but Ekblad.

  98. Colieo87 says:

    Draisaitl or Bennet who is going to get the most out of yakapov that is the million dollar question.

  99. Ducey says:

    frjohnk: I’m on my iphone, but there is a Draisaitl highlight video on youtube for 2013-14. The kid has got skill.
    Check it out.

    I’ll see your Draisaitl video and raise a Bennett video. The kid has some serious hops. I think that he is more dynamic than Leon. The highlight ending at about 2:32 is unreal.
    http://youtu.be/svCdZiNfbvg

  100. kooler says:

    Would Philli give up schenn, couturier and simmonds for our 3rd, one AHL defence man and gagner?

    Does that get us close to a playoff team.

    P.s. That Canuck pride seems to have disappeared from daily conversation here in vancouver.

  101. stevezie says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    An easy way to distinguish a casual fan from a serious one right now is to ask what the Oilers’ greatest organizational need is. Anyone who thinks we have too many young forwards and lack D probably does watch a few games, but doesn’t pay much attention to the organization.

    I’m not sure that’s an insult though.

  102. stevezie says:

    kooler,

    Absolutely not, and they’d probably stop taking our calls afterwards, and yes. Respectively.

    EDIT: Did you mean Luke Schenn? In that case, I think they would still take our calls, but still a firm no.

  103. stevezie says:

    I’m officially coming out for Bennet,

    I think projecting is alchemy, and the easiest way to judge what someone is going to do in the future is to look at what they’ve done in the past. Talk about speed, size, character, grit is mostly besides the point, we should only judge the results. So originally I wanted Draisatl. He had better stats and that guy Rom would be so happy. I love happiness.

    And yet… I can’t shake the nagging doubt to be wary of the guy who is older and bigger than everyone else. I think Drst’s size advantage should be at least as troubling as Bennet’s size deficiency. Plus I keep hearing about how hyper competitive Bennet is. I know I just made a speech about how I don’t care about that stuff, but if there is one factor that gives a guy an edge in transitioning from junior to the big leagues, isn’t a pathological drive to compete going to be htat factor?

    They both have skill. I’ll take the Gilmour.

  104. Numenius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    I radically disagree that culture is relevant. IMO “culture” is even more prone to bias than “size!”

    Just because “culture” is prone to bias doesn’t make it an irrelevant consideration.

    It also doesn’t mean that there aren’t skilled people with the proper information, who can make that judgment.

    McT certainly thinks it’s a relevant consideration and he thinks he can make the judgment, which is evident when he says that he’s looking for players with “character”.

    To my mind, the dispute should not be about whether culture is relevant, which it clearly is.

    The only disputes should be about what exactly “culture” means and whether we as mere fans on the outside have any basis on which to judge it.

  105. spoiler says:

    Colieo87: Draisaitl or Bennet who is going to get the most out of yakapov that is the million dollar question.

    Our two best players are left-handed shots. Do we want our top 2 centres to both be left-handed shots? Do we want our top 2 centres to both have the same strong side on face-offs? I don’t think I would pick a team that way and immediately trading one of the two is out of the question.

    Can we draft for need just once? I mean when the top end is this close together, can we draft for need? Is that okay? Cause I think anything else would be really stupid.
    (that’s not aimed at you, Colieo)

  106. spoiler says:

    Numenius:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    I radically disagree that culture is relevant. IMO “culture” is even more prone to bias than “size!”

    Just because “culture” is prone to bias doesn’t make it an irrelevant consideration.
    It also doesn’t mean that there aren’t skilled people with the proper information, who can make that judgment.

    And that bias certainly doesn’t make size irrelevant either. Strength, reach and durability are important considerations, especially for defensemen. Tools can’t be ignored. Any of them. Shooting, passing, skating, size… they all should be given similar weight with any mitigating factors noted.

  107. kooler says:

    Bennett video seems a bit more impressive, although Draisaitl might be a good fit for Yakapov and he seems to not mind the bumps. You can’t teach speed. Tough one.

  108. Numenius says:

    Colieo87:
    Draisaitl or Bennet who is going to get the most out of yakapov that is the million dollar question.

    I’d say Draisaitl hands down. Yak seems to work best with a possession player who can dig the puck out of the corners and pass it to him, exactly Draisaitl’s strengths.

    Rom won’t like this next part, but I think Yak also needs someone patient with whom he feels he can be himself. Draisaitl is intense, but quiet, patient, and approachable, not to mention European, whereas Bennett seems to have a prickish, impatient personality that would be a problem with Yak, especially with Bennett being younger.

    That’s my psychological analysis, anyway. I have other tricks, too.

  109. limit says:

    Ducey,

    Here’s something on face offs, Reinhart looks better than Draisaitl:
    http://stats.iihf.com/Hydra/349/IHM349000_85F_28_0.pdf

    2013 World u-18
    Reinhart: 51wins, 33 losses, 60.7%
    Draisaitl: 42wins, 41 losses, 50.6%

    2014 WJC
    Reinhart: 12-12, 50%
    Draisaitl: 36-38, 48.6%

    2013 WJC
    Draisaitl: 24-35, 40.7%

  110. stevezie says:

    Numenius,

    We’re agreeing with you it is relevant. The question is whether it can be objectively discussed. I am not sure it can.

    Definitely it matters, but you can’t tell what it is from the outside.

  111. PunjabiOil says:

    I think you have to go with the consensus amongst scouts – Bennett over Draisaitl.

    Bennett or Reinhart is a bigger debate.

    Keep in mind Bennett is approximately the same size as Hall/Seguin were in 2010. He’s drawing comparisons to Duchene/Toews with regards to lower body strength. I don’t think he’s a guy you can easily pass on.

    This was the quote from MacT in the Sun article today:

    The Oilers will pick third.

    “I’m not devastated by it, that’s for sure,” said MacTavish.

    “It’s very debatable which players will be the best players over time. I didn’t want to drop back to No. 4. That was the important thing.”

    The day before MacTavish said “There would be regret” if Florida won the No. 1 pick.

    On surface, that looks like one of Bennett, Ekblad, or Reinhart.

    On surface.

    We wait.

  112. mumbai max says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: highlight what you want to quote and hit the quote button.

    As I said above, I don’t think there’s much need to debate why hockey commentators use these words for some players and not others. They are distributed in an incredibly biased manner.

    My initial point was merely to say weight is surely a factor. You acknowledged that was the case. We have no disagreement here.

    This is all very interesting.

    It doesn’t change the fact that “culture” and the words we associate with it is easily one of the more fungible concepts used in hockey talk.

    It is far too bias prone to be reliable and we know far too little about the actual people involved to be able to make judgements on this basis.

    I agree that we know next to nothing about the personality of the people involved, making it difficult to be accurate in our assessments.

    A few more words about culture. Here are some elements of what I would call culture that are visible without knowing the people involved. They are important in sports and business and life.

    Work ethic – do they work hard all the time
    Attention to detail – exhibited for us to see
    Willingness to distribute credit to others – harder to see, but indicated in interviews etc.
    Drive to win/succeed – exhibited
    Willingness to do the dirty work – exhibited
    Team success comes first – do they care about teammates – harder to see
    Willingness to accept responsibility/blame when appropriate

    These are all traits we can evaluate in a hockey player or a team member. Team members who exhibit these behaviours drive a positive culture, team members who do not, drive a negative culture. Given 2 or 3 or 4 players with about the same ability perhaps we should try and evaluate these traits to pick who to draft/fire/hire.

  113. Ca$h-Money! says:

    stevezie:
    I’m officially coming out for Bennet,

    I think projecting is alchemy, and the easiest way to judge what someone is going to do in the future is to look at what they’ve done in the past. Talk about speed, size, character,grit is mostly besides the point, we should only judge the results. So originally I wanted Draisatl. He had better stats and that guy Rom would be so happy. I love happiness.

    And yet… I can’t shake the nagging doubt to be wary of the guy who is older and bigger than everyone else. I think Drst’s size advantage should be at least as troubling as Bennet’s size deficiency. Plus I keep hearing about how hyper competitive Bennet is. I know I just made a speech about how I don’t care about that stuff, but if there is one factor that gives a guy an edge in transitioning from junior to the big leagues, isn’t a pathological drive to compete going to be htat factor?

    They both have skill. I’ll take the Gilmour.

    It is alchemy, you’re right. I don’t think logically anyone can say with any type of certainty which of these 3 forwards will be better.

    On being a man amongst boys:

    You know who were men amongst boys? Chara, Thornton, and Weber. They were big in junior and that translated into being big in the NHL. Using that argument for anyone other than a Lindros level generational talent will always result in selecting the smaller guy with similar numbers.

    Leon is a big puck possession pass first centre that should eventually fit great with Yak the shooter and Perron the bulldog. It makes sense.

    And I’ll add this: If we end up drafting a guy 3rd who maybe ends up being the 7th best player drafted (because who knows?), it shouldn’t matter at this point. The difference between drafting 1,1,1,6,3 and 1,1,1,6,7 should not make or break your franchise for years to come. We can rest easy knowing that both of these kids will ALMOST certainly become solid NHL Players. They may or may not be superstars but they should be valuable assets regardless, even if one is clearly better than the other 5 years from now.

  114. Halfwise says:

    Ca$h-Money!: And I’ll add this: If we end up drafting a guy 3rd who maybe ends up being the 7th best player drafted (because who knows?), it shouldn’t matter at this point. The difference between drafting 1,1,1,6,3 and 1,1,1,6,7 should not make or break your franchise for years to come.

    This is an important insight. We humans can drive ourselves crazy trying to further analyze the differences between options 1A, 1B and 1C when in reality there is not enough information nor enough skill in the models we use to process that information. And even if we had more info and better models, there is no assurance that the differences would be material.

    But the beauty of LT’s site is that, notwithstanding the futility, we are still free to analyse, proclaim, defend our positions and be surprised by the positions others take.

    And of course, to wonder why LT always hated Smid. I never did understand that…

  115. mumbai max says:

    Halfwise,

    Halfwise,

    Ca$h-Money!: It is alchemy, you’re right.I don’t think logically anyone can say with any type of certainty which of these 3 forwards will be better.

    On being a man amongst boys:

    You know who were men amongst boys? Chara, Thornton, and Weber.They were big in junior and that translated into being big in the NHL.Using that argument for anyone other than a Lindros level generational talent will always result in selecting the smaller guy with similar numbers.

    Leon is a big puck possession pass first centre that should eventually fit great with Yak the shooter and Perron the bulldog.It makes sense.

    And I’ll add this: If we end up drafting a guy 3rd who maybe ends up being the 7th best player drafted (because who knows?), it shouldn’t matter at this point.The difference between drafting 1,1,1,6,3 and 1,1,1,6,7 should not make or break your franchise for years to come.We can rest easy knowing that both of these kids will ALMOST certainly become solid NHL Players. They may or may not be superstars but they should be valuable assets regardless, even if one is clearly better than the other 5 years from now.

    Halfwise,

    The extra pressure this year comes from having Calgary pick 4th. Whoever we discard could haunt us for 20 years. It is already bad enough having Monahan playing there.

  116. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Halfwise: And of course, to wonder why LT always hated Smid. I never did understand that

    Lots more work to determine that. Don’t think even LT knows why.

  117. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    mumbai max: Whoever we discard could haunt us for 20 years. It is already bad enough having Monahan playing there

    Longer wait for D to show but let’s hope Nurse is Feaster’s Folly for decades.

  118. Ca$h-Money! says:

    mumbai max,

    Monohan had a good year, not a great one. 34 points, -20, 15% shooting percentage. Let’s not start thinking of him as the second coming quite yet. If I had to bet I’d say whoever we end up with this year (and whoever Calgary ends up with) will be better than him long term.

    Good player though, just not a guy who will keep me awake at night. I’ll take my chances with Nurse.

  119. Halfwise says:

    mumbai max: Halfwise, Halfwise, The extra pressure this year comes from having Calgary pick 4th. Whoever we discard could haunt us for 20 years. It is already bad enough having Monahan playing there.

    I hear you.

    Those ghosts will haunt us regardless, and it will be based on episodes and events more than a body of work. That too is the human condition.

  120. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Numenius: Just because “culture” is prone to bias doesn’t make it an irrelevant consideration.

    It also doesn’t mean that there aren’t skilled people with the proper information, who can make that judgment.

    McT certainly thinks it’s a relevant consideration and he thinks he can make the judgment, which is evident when he says that he’s looking for players with “character”.

    To my mind, the dispute should not be about whether culture is relevant, which it clearly is.

    The only disputes should be about what exactly “culture” means and whether we as mere fans on the outside have any basis on which to judge it.

    yes. thank for helping me clarify. there are several lines of thought here and they easily get tangled.

    when I say culture talk is irrelevant, I mean I give almost no credence to the chatter around players and “winning culture”; “he want it more”; “he hates losing” etc… this is nearly all narratives and leads to near endless Hosannas to Shawn Thornton, savior of the Cup.

    But, I absolutely agree that hockey decision makers often use these intangible descriptors to make decisions. It is absolutely relevant to how decisions get made.

    Yet, I am in no position to evaluate the merit of these statements. I can’t verify them the way I can stats, or game play. They are just noise to me. I ignore them.

    And, based on the rampant flippancy with which these intangibles get thrown around — on day you’re in, the next you’re out — I don’t think we’re going to reach a working definition anytime soon.

  121. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    stevezie: So originally I wanted Draisatl. He had better stats and that guy Rom would be so happy. I love happiness.

    This is a good reason.

    happy, happy, joy, joy!

    seriously, though, I’m with CO, the first hurdle for me is getting a C, any of the 3 (shit, I even have a lot of time for Nylander and Barbashev…. just get a fucking C).

    obviously, I favor Draisaitl… but that’s irrational. I don’t think anyone can tell which of the 3 will do the best long term.

    Numenius: Rom won’t like this next part, but I think Yak also needs someone patient with whom he feels he can be himself. Draisaitl is intense, but quiet, patient, and approachable, not to mention European, whereas Bennett seems to have a prickish, impatient personality that would be a problem with Yak, especially with Bennett being younger.

    I don’t have a strong objection to this kind of insight. I just think we have to take it with a huge grain of salt.

    We have such limited access to these people who are all teenagers. I hate to have my 18 year old self examined thoroughly in isolated snippets.

  122. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    mumbai max: I agree that we know next to nothing about the personality of the people involved, making it difficult to be accurate in our assessments.

    A few more words about culture. Here are some elements of what I would call culture that are visible without knowing the people involved. They are important in sports and business and life.

    Work ethic – do they work hard all the time
    Attention to detail – exhibited for us to see
    Willingness to distribute credit to others – harder to see, but indicated in interviews etc.
    Drive to win/succeed – exhibited
    Willingness to do the dirty work – exhibited
    Team success comes first – do they care about teammates – harder to see
    Willingness to accept responsibility/blame when appropriate

    These are all traits we can evaluate in a hockey player or a team member. Team members who exhibit these behaviours drive a positive culture, team members who do not, drive a negative culture. Given 2 or 3or 4 players with about the same ability perhaps we should try and evaluate these traits to pick who to draft/fire/hire.

    Sure. that’s a good attempt to lay somethings down.

    My only question would be, with these questions in mind and whatever limited information you’ve gleaned from scouting reports and game play: what gives you the confidence to suggest Bennett is a cultural paragon and Draisaitl isn’t… or any of the other players for that matter?

    One thing you should take to heart is that MacT is fairly aligned with your thought process here. He’s going to thoroughly vet these guys for “character/culture/etc”

    If he picks a guy, you can bet he thinks the world of his character. It’s nearly all he said about Nurse.

  123. Andy P says:

    Questions:
    1.If Ekblad and Reinhart are gone, who do you choose?
    We have a packed D Pipeline, and it’s traditionally been a bad idea to pick a D so far up in the draft unless that person’s name is Pronger. So it seems to be conventional wisdom that being a longer shot, D’s are best taken further down in the draft.
    We have virtually no depth at C, and the common complaint is that we have too many of the same players. Sam is the devil we know. We have to be sure that the player drafted will be an upgrade on Sam, in offense and defense and size. I.e. 5’11, 202 lbs, strong on offense, very weak on D, recovering from major injury.
    It seems to me that Bennett is more of Nuge – except that Nuge is 6’1″ and says he is now 197 pounds. I’m sure he will come back around 202. I also liked the pushb ack I saw in his last few games. This young man’s calm demeanour hides a fierce competitive streak. We’ve already moaned ourselves sick about more of the same. Bennett is more of the same.
    Draisatl brings some balance to the roster. We’re not looking for a #1C salary, we’re looking for a big #2C. Draisatl seems to fit that bill, except that Draisatl is West European, which means he is not a red blooded Canadian. Think MPS, Hemsky, Harti, and most College players. Russians have as much red neck in them as most Canadians so I don’t class them with the West Europeans :)
    So, if the coach and more importantly the fans, can accept that he’ll fight about as much as MPS, Hemsky, Harti, and will likely hit to separate the player from the puck etc, then he could add the balance LT is looking for at the C position. He could also be ripened in OKC if Gags recovers in the offseason, performs at his prior level, and does not get traded. Seeing as we need to be better next year than this but will likely miss the playoffs, except by less.

    Which is a long winded way of saying I think the German is the best choice if Reinhart is gone.

    2.Do you consider trading up?
    No. The price is usually too high, and we are looking for a #2C contract.

    3.Do you consider trading down?
    Perhaps one slot at a time if the next one down agrees not to take Draisatl.

    4.If the Oilers choose Draisaitl, are you convinced they’re making a mistake?
    Perhaps yes, because redneck Oilers fans don’t like College grads or fur’ners.

    5.What one reason can you name for the Oilers passing on Sam Bennett?
    More of what we have.
    Edit: I agree he would not be a good fit for Yak, but I’m also of the opinion that Yak may be headed out of town to another team or to the KHL. I think he’s willing to learn but not sure if his brain is wired to understand what Eakins is trying to teach him. He’s looking lost so often when he does not have the puck. Eakins is either going to have to pretty much accept that shortcoming and accept him for the trigger man he is, with little else, or have MacT get whatever he can for him in the offseason. Think Yak + Gags for a top 4 veteran bridge D.

  124. Pouzar says:

    Eric Rodgers‏@ericrsports·now
    @FrostyOil Extremely. Was one of the better d-men out there.

    Eric Rodgers‏@ericrsports·now
    Nurse getting double-shifted in the waning moments of the game. #OKCBarons trailing 2-1, 3:21 to go. #oilers

    Eric Rodgers‏@ericrsports·now
    Nurse jumping into the play and gives the #OKCBarons one of their best chances of the night. #oilers

    Eric Rodgers‏@ericrsports·now
    Nurse had a very nice shift where he rode out Scott Glennie along the end boards to cause a turnover. #OKCBarons #oilers

    ric Rodgers‏@ericrsports·now
    First impression getting to see Nurse in person: tall, very lanky, and plays it the best way I’ve seen anyone with that build. #OKCBarons

  125. russ99 says:

    1. Draisaitl
    2. No
    3. No, this should be our last chance to draft this high for a while, and yes I said that last year. :)
    4. None whatsoever, Draisaitl is BPA with Ekblad off the board and his size and puck skills at center have no match at the top of the draft, plus he fits a big need for us.
    5. The Gilmour and Toews comparisons are ridiculous, and for a primarily protectable two-way player, you can’t expect those numbers to translate in the NHL. Besides, Monahan was a much better prospect and if we really wanted that kind of player we could have traded up to get him last year.

  126. Pouzar says:

    The “not engaged enough in the defensive zone” scares me regarding Draisaitl.
    But at least he acknowledges that defending is a weak part of his game ( heard it in an interview).
    But if he plays hockey the Darryl Sutter way and owns the puck the whole thing maybe “mute” <– Hate when people say "mute". Sorry pet peave.

    I'd prefer Bennett but I will cheer like hell for whomever we get because we are getting a pretty good player either way.

  127. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Pouzar: But if he plays hockey the Darryl Sutter way and owns the puck the whole thing maybe “mute” <– Hate when people say "mute". Sorry pet peave.

    do you mean “moot”?

  128. Pouzar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: do you mean “moot”?

    Yes. But a lot of people say “mute” and it kills me.

  129. DeadmanWaking says:

    Ca$h-Money!: The difference between drafting 1,1,1,6,3 and 1,1,1,6,7 should not make or break your franchise for years to come.

    Yes, but the difference between drafting the guy who ultimately becomes a perennial all-star and the guy at the back of the junior hockey break-away peloton who fades to a journeyman second-liner absolutely does make or break championship campaigns.

    The team who drafts first has slightly better odds at grabbing the difference maker, especially when the difference maker also brings size. When a Theoren Fleury is the best player available, winning the draft lottery has an inverse correlation with picking the best of the litter. It’s tough to go against the grain with the first pick. On the flip side, going against the grain is only rarely the right decision. Half of the time–at least!–the consensus is on the money.

    The difference between picking first and seventh definitely does make a difference in the heights achieved by an organization, just not very often. But when the rare event occurs, it’s a big one.

    People get confused about this, I think because of the null hypothesis. The top five or ten guys in any draft year are generally well clear of the null hypothesis (that the guy really doesn’t belong at the NHL level in the first place).

    OTOH, the variance between picks is maximal at the top of the draft. The difference between the 1st pick and the 2nd could be as large on average as the difference between a 4th rounder and no pick at all.

    Again, we’re not talking every year. Sometimes you get a twin peak, like the Hall/Seguin draft. Other years you get a Crosby or a McDavid.

    If you held the Crosby pick, how much would you want in compensation to trade down to Jack Johnson? Jack Johnson plus another pick in the third round? Jack Johnson and Carey Price? Jack Johnson and Carey Price and Anze Kopitar?

    The prospective variance is muddied by the fog of puberty, but the retrospective variance is absolutely the difference between some team making it through to the final round or not–every second or third draft year.

  130. DeadmanWaking says:

    I said “the fog of puberty”. Let’s be clear about this. Male puberty is a process that lasts a long time.

    I see it like this:

    25% at age twelve, 50% at age thirteen, 75% at age fourteen, 100% at age fifteen, and then it declines by about 10% per year for another decade.

    Adulthood is the threshold were puberty represents less than 50% of the maturity pie. It’s not a sharp boundary. We’re still well into the fog of puberty at age nineteen. In some individuals, the curtains of adulthood have lifted by this age. In many others, not so much.

    Puberty is also not a linear process. There’s such a thing as puberty rebound.

  131. Ca$h-Money! says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    Absolutely, but that’s the point: the difference between Bennet/Draisaitl isn’t Crosby/Johnson, at least not on paper (which is all that matters at this point because we don’t have the benefit of a time machine).

    They score at approximately the same rate. Bennet is younger, but Draisaitl plays in the WHL, has had to adapt to a new language and culture, and grew up playing in an inferior junior system (probably, have to assume his coaching at 12, 13, and 14 wasn’t on par with what Bennet received in Canada). Bennet is stronger defensively, Draisaitl is bigger and is highly touted from a puck possession standpoint.

    My point is that you can argue one way or another, but at the end of the day you’re just making a gut feeling call at this point. It’s aggravating when GMs make decisions that ignore obvious realities, especially statistical realities. It’s the type of thing Bloggers are really good at dissecting. I think the Bennet vs. Draisaitl debate has gotten to the point where people are making firm statements and backing them up with “facts” while ignoring other “facts”. It’s a coin flip for us, it will be a coin flip for the GM, it can’t be clearly called from the sidelines.

    My second point, about drafting, is that it shouldn’t matter at this point if we draft 3rd, 4th, or 10th. If we can’t turn consecutive drafts of Hall, RNH, Yakupov, and Nurse into a championship caliber team then Drasaitl or Bennet probably won’t change anything. We need to be able to plug holes in the lineup through other means, we won’t have success unless we win trades, make good free agent signings, develop some utility players, and develop a system that works for our skill set.

    At this point the 3rd pick is pure gravy; it will help make the meal delicious but it’s not necessary.

    P.S. doesn’t mean I don’t love gravy, god knows I do. Not bowl of gravy guy type love, but love all the same.

  132. Numenius says:

    stevezie:
    Numenius,

    We’re agreeing with you it is relevant. The question is whether it can be objectively discussed. I am not sure it can.

    Definitely it matters, but you can’t tell what it is from the outside.

    This is good. If we can agree that culture matters, I’m happy.

    Our only disagreement, then, is in whether one can tell anything at all about it from the outside.

    I think it’s difficult, but that we can make some tentative judgments as long as we don’t take ourselves too seriously. You and Rom suspect that we can’t and shouldn’t even make those.

    This is where the debate should focus. I think there’s a reasonable case for both sides.

  133. Numenius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: yes. thank for helping me clarify. there are several lines of thought here and they easily get tangled.

    when I say culture talk is irrelevant, I mean I give almost no credence to the chatter around players and “winning culture”; “he want it more”; “he hates losing” etc… this is nearly all narratives and leads to near endless Hosannas to Shawn Thornton, savior of the Cup.

    But, I absolutely agree that hockey decision makers often use these intangible descriptors to make decisions. It is absolutely relevant to how decisions get made.

    Yet, I am in no position to evaluate the merit of these statements. I can’t verify them the way I can stats, or game play. They are just noise to me. I ignore them.

    And, based on the rampant flippancy with which these intangibles get thrown around — on day you’re in, the next you’re out — I don’t think we’re going to reach a working definition anytime soon.

    Thanks for clarifying.

    I agree with most of that with the exception of what I said to stevezie above.

  134. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Numenius: Thanks for clarifying.

    I agree with most of that with the exception of what I said to stevezie above.

    I’ll say this… I think you can make some tentative judgments here… but usually only in extreme cases.

    and, even then, I wouldn’t make it a deciding factor.

    And, as I said… I may well be inclined to gravitate towards players shunned. Richards and Carter and Seguin all come to mind.

  135. rickithebear says:

    RNH his 2 healthy years ranked top 70 EVG for FWD and Top 70EVP.
    @ age 20 he did not gain from physical strengthincrease last 2 years.
    By CHL curve projections he should get a 19% bump end 15-16.
    Thou he may get a further bump from strengthaning.
    Taking him to the 44-46 EVP range. top 30 FWD.

    Gagner EVP
    18-20 .125 EVG/gm .26EVA/gm
    21-22 .16 EVG/gm .31 EVA/gm
    23-24 healthy .20 EVG/gm .30 EVA/gm
    he averages his 76gm a year he is a 38-40EVP FWD now.
    making him a top 60 fwd EVG and EVA.

    Based on Age; CHL projection curves for production at Age 22 and EVP to PPP ratios;
    lets look at 5
    What would be best Case NHLE @22

    Draisaitl 6’1″ 209LB 64gm 38G 67A
    82gm 25G 45A 70P;
    18EVG (top 45) 27EVA 45 EVP (top 30)

    Sam Rheinhardt 6’1″ 183lb 60gm 36G 69A
    I am nervous cause he is taking Max body type not Griffin.
    Max was listed as 6’1″ 185lb in Kootney @ 18. Max @ 22 6’0″ 181lb ouch!
    82GM 25G 49A 74P
    17EVG (top 60) 29EVA 46 EVp (top 30)

    Sam Bennett 6’0″ 181lb 57gm 36G 55A
    82gm 35G 53A 88P
    25EVG (top 10) 35EVA 60EVP (top 5)
    Trade up No question!

    Del Colle 6’2″ 171lb 67gm 39G 56A
    82gm 32G 46A 78P
    19EVG (Top35) 24A 43P (top 40)

    Ehlers 5’11″ 165lb 63gm 49G 55A
    82gm 36G 40A 76P
    26EVG 24EVA 50 EVP

    43 to 50 EVP and 60EVP

  136. Leon Draisaitl: Highlights and Observations | Oil! the blog says:

    […] similar observations while watching the young center play. They’re available  in summary on Lowetide’s site. McCurdy’s full post can be found here. From […]

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