VOLLMAN’S NHLE

The Leon Draisaitl v. Sam Bennett debate is reaching a fever pitch, so I thought it might be a good idea to run NHL equivalencies. This is early—I’m about two months ahead of normal here—but it couldn’t hurt to run the numbers and see what we can find. For our purposes today, I’m going to use Rob Vollman’s equivalencies. They’re pretty much the same, but are more recent vintage and may well give us insight into the debate.

2014 DRAFT ELIGIBILES USING VOLLMAN NHL EQUIVALENCIES (per 82gp)

  1. Sam Bennett (OHL) 16-23-39
  2. Robby Fabri (OHL) 19-18-37
  3. Sam Reinhart (WHL) 13-24-37
  4. Nikolaj Ehlers (QMJHL) 17-18-35
  5. Michael Dal Colle (OHL) 14-21-35
  6. Leon Draisaitl (WHL) 13-22-35
  7. Nick Ritchie (OHL) 16-14-30
  8. Ivan Barbashev (QMJHL) 11-19-30
  9. Brendan Perlini (OHL) 14-16-30
  10. Jake Virtanen (WHL) 14-7-21

Interesting. VERY interesting. There’s not a great offensive player available in this draft (Taylor Hall was 17-29-46, as an example) but Bennett has the edge. A quick note: Vollman’s NHLE’s have the OHL as the clearly superior league and that is reflected in these numbers.

You can read about Robert Fabbri here. One take:

  • Fabbri: “I really like him and think he is an absolute game changer. Some may have some hesitation based on his size but I don’t care for that because all I see is an extremely skilled player. Fast and elusive and has the ability to take over a game. One such instance was against the Greyhounds in December when he scored the tying goal with less than a second to play before capping the hattrick with the winner in OT. A former OHL cup champion who I can see taking over come playoff time. I fell there is still some upward mobility in his draft ranking.” – Anonymous

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

167 Responses to "VOLLMAN’S NHLE"

  1. OilClog says:

    I’d go with Bennett, just because it seems a safer choice.

    I’d trade the pick though, because I’d like to see some playoff hockey with the Oilers involved before 2023.

  2. frjohnk says:

    For me, whoever the oilers pick, he has to turn out to be better than the flames pick.

    That’s the number 1 factor. Let’s say oilers pick one of the centers and the flames pick a center. If the oilers pick player x and the flames pick player y and player y dominates our player for years to come, there will be hell to pay with this fan base.

  3. Ben says:

    Because I’m too lazy to look for myself:

    Can anyone off the top of their heads think of an instance where a top-3 pick was traded straight-up for an established player?

  4. jayzz says:

    No chance Bennett is there at 3 … Please stop dreaming LT, no way in hell Florida passes on Reinhardt and conversely no chance buff takes ekblad, let’s discuss the real choice of Ekblad and da German.
    Question . Any thoughts on flipping Gagner for Adam henrique ?? I know it would take more but am I the only one that sees this as a prudent move ?

  5. Lowetide says:

    jayzz:
    No chance Bennett is there at 3 … Please stop dreaming LT, no way in hell Florida passes on Reinhardt and conversely no chance buff takes ekblad, let’s discuss the real choice of Ekblad and da German.Question . Any thoughts on flipping Gagner for Adam henrique ?? I know it would take more but am I the only one that sees this as a prudent move ?

    Dreaming? I haven’t made my list yet, so am uncertain of this dreaming you speak of?

  6. RexLibris says:

    Ben:
    Because I’m too lazy to look for myself:

    Can anyone off the top of their heads think of an instance where a top-3 pick was traded straight-up for an established player?

    The Tom Kurvers trade to Toronto for the pick (3rd overall, I believe) that became Scott Niedermayer comes to mind.

    Me? I’d do the pick for Ryan O’Reilly.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    We are getting excited are we.

    Got to be Fabbri’s size that keeps him so low on the lists, right. reminds me of Shinkaruk and Petan last year.

    ———
    What’s the rationale for OHL love?

  8. John Chambers says:

    I’ve been swung to the Draisaitl side of the debate after seeing the highlight package. The strength will translate better to the NHL game better than Bennett’s speed advantage.

    Also Paajarvi hasn’t played in the playoffs yet. I would be very much for dealing a pick to STL to re- acquire him. Nice toolset, and could replace whoever on 4th line LW .

  9. John Chambers says:

    RexLibris,

    Seconded on OReilly. It’s actually a feasible trade suggestion.

  10. OilClog says:

    jayzz:
    No chance Bennett is there at 3 … Please stop dreaming LT, no way in hell Florida passes on Reinhardt and conversely no chance buff takes ekblad, let’s discuss the real choice of Ekblad and da German.Question . Any thoughts on flipping Gagner for Adam henrique ?? I know it would take more but am I the only one that sees this as a prudent move ?

    If it came to that.. is there much of a debate? Who would return more in a trade.. Question answered :)

  11. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Dreaming? I haven’t made my list yet, so am uncertain of this dreaming you speak of?

    Yeah, when LT dreams in articles usually Ms. Johansson makes an appearance.

  12. hags9k says:

    And he wears #93. Destiny for he and Nuge to be 1 and 1A.

    Bennett Hall Yakupov
    Nuge Perron Eberle

  13. OilClog says:

    Ben:
    Because I’m too lazy to look for myself:

    Can anyone off the top of their heads think of an instance where a top-3 pick was traded straight-up for an established player?

    I don’t believe anyone said it would take just the pick straight up to acquire an established player.

    But the pick packaged with other pieces Gagner, defense prospects, other roster players.. All of a sudden there’s going to be GM’s out there that will be willing to dance, will MacT find a match… Probably not.

  14. jayzz says:

    Lowetide,

    The fact that almost every post I read by you I’m seeing Sam Bennett’s name and not much else, almost right from the time of the draft lottery to be precise.
    It’s a pretty obvious attempt to whip up support for the player of your choice.
    I’m just saying ” keep dreaming” because there is 0 chance he will be there at 3 ..
    FYI the right move IMO is to trade down a couple spots for dal Colle and stop trying to pencil in 18 year olds on our 2nd line … That’s kind of a Kevin Lowe thing.. Lowetide..

  15. Rondo says:

    Flavour of the week is Sam Bennett for me.

    The fact that Corey Pronman and Brock Otten have him a better prospect than Sean Monahan.

    Next week who knows.

  16. hags9k says:

    Rondo,

    I hear ya. I’m looking forward to my Reinhart week too.

    What a war in St. Louis today. We NEED to get back into contention. 2006 was so long ago, but these games remind how fun it was. GOILERS

  17. jayzz says:

    The oil have 99 problems but defensive prospects aren’t one, if you have center problems I feel bad for you son …. Sorry lol
    Pass on Ekblad reminds me to much of a certain former hawk/oiler
    Sign an experienced center or trade for one that has defensive awareness> skill ( henrique)
    Draft the power forward we desperately need and let him ripe in jrs

  18. Rondo says:

    I believe there is a better than 50% chance Florida will take Ekblad. Given that they took Barkov a centre last year over Seth Jones. Not a stretch because Ekblad could be ranked #1 before the draft.

  19. hags9k says:

    If we can by some miracle sign Stastny and draft a C we would have such an upgrade down the middle…Let the rookie ease in on the 4L like NateMac.

    It would totally change the complexion of the team.

    Nuge. Stastny, Gordon, Bennett. Gags to wing or to LA for Clifford.

  20. Lowetide says:

    jayzz:
    Lowetide,

    The fact that almost every post I read by you I’m seeing Sam Bennett’s name and not much else, almost right from the time of the draft lottery to be precise.It’s a pretty obvious attempt to whip up support for the player of your choice.
    I’m just saying ” keep dreaming” because there is 0 chance he will be there at 3 ..FYI the right move IMO is to trade down a couple spots for dal Colle and stop trying to pencil in 18 year olds on our 2nd line … That’s kind of a Kevin Lowe thing.. Lowetide..

    Jayzz, honestly, I don’t work like that. I don’t care if you post here, or ON, or anywhere. You’re welcome to, but I have nothing to gain by trumpeting one guy over another. I will admit—and believe others can back me up here—that I paid VERY LITTLE attention to Bennett until recently.

    The reason? I like to do things in order. So, I looked at the players in the basic order they were mentioned by guys like McKenzie:

    March 31 Draisaitl
    http://oilersnation.com/2014/3/31/leon

    April 1 Ekblad
    http://oilersnation.com/2014/4/1/aaron

    April 2 Reinhart
    http://oilersnation.com/2014/4/2/another-nuge

    April 17 Bennett
    http://oilersnation.com/2014/4/17/make-the-call

    So, if you entered the fray around the lottery that may explain your feeling on the issue. I can tell you that my mind isn’t made up yet, and do wish you the best.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    hags9k: If we can by some miracle sign Stastny and draft a C we would have such an upgrade down the middle…Let the rookie ease in on the 4L like NateMac.

    even better, send him back to junior.

  22. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: and do wish you the best.

    Sail On, Jayzz?

    seriously though… the confusing part (well, the most confusing part) was this:

    jayzz: stop trying to pencil in 18 year olds on our 2nd line … That’s kind of a Kevin Lowe thing.. Lowetide..

    I can’t recall LT advocating rushing a prospect… ever.

  23. Rondo says:

    hags9k:
    Rondo,

    I hear ya.I’m looking forward to my Reinhart week too.

    What a war in St. Louis today.We NEED to get back into contention.2006 was so long ago, but these games remind how fun it was.GOILERS

    I can’t see Reinhart as an Oiler he sounds very similar to RNH. I think at the end of the day Oilers will decide between 3 players . Bennett , Ekblad and Draisaitl.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo: I can’t see Reinhart as an Oiler he sounds very similar to RNH.I think at the end of the day Oilers will decidebetween 3 players .Bennett , Ekblad and Draisaitl.

    The true trolling move wouldn’t be for MacT to call Bennett’s name.

    It would be to say “Nylander”

    Worth it just to watch everyone’s head explode.

  25. maxwell_mischief says:

    Ben,

    I remember ruslan fedotenko going for the 4th overall pick (joni pitkanen), but tampa also got 2 second round picks

  26. Lowetide says:

    I use this period to live with things. Like, I’ll say “they should trade down for Virtanen” and I’ll live with that for a few days. Try it on like shoes, or a new beer. Hmmm. Good beer, I’ll say.

  27. Rondo says:

    Another argument for Bennett

    “If you follow the Oilers at all, you’ve heard the local media go on ad nauseum about how the Oilers need to get bigger. I’m sure that the Ducks’ size doesn’t hurt them. At the same time, as you watch these, a lot of this isn’t size – it’s a willingness to challenge and engage the other team as opposed to kind of falling back and hoping that they screw up.”

    Tyler Dellow

  28. Pouzar says:

    Please Please Please be Bennett.

  29. OilClog says:

    As far as drafting players IMO the Oilers GM and head scout seem to be a match for eachother and they’ve only insulated themselves with other talented people around them, whichever name gets called on Draft Day(barring trade – I can dream he can do the impossible.. In this regard) the kid will be a player, injury being my only worry.

    Will I cry 10years down the line that’s Calgarys pick ends up with a better career? All depends on whether the Oilers win or not. If the next 8 years are anything like the last 8years…Damn you Gords

    Tavares.. Could you get him? We have an abundance in areas, Gagner could stay and play wing. Pipe dream.. But the islanders are bat sh!t crazy and where’s there’s smoke there’s fire.

    Nuge Hall Ebs
    Tavares Perron Gags

    Bennet, Yak/Ebs, Lander, Maricin/Klef, more picks.. I know it’s not nhl14.. But They’re batshit crazy over there..

  30. justDOit says:

    Out with the old Sam, in with the new – Bennett!

    Despite not knowing what 2nd intermission, small-town rink coffee even smells like, I’m on the Bennett bandwagon, now that I’ve watched a few youtube vids, and glanced at his stats (over 100 pims!). Fast, elusive, great vision, superb puck skills, and he plays with an edge. What’s not to love?

    @Jayzz: Tomorrow is 4/20. Tomorrow.

  31. jayzz says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Iv seen not Lt but his faithful lap dogs write out lines with Bennett in the 2 spot, also I read almost every blog you write, I seem to have bothered you with my observation, a sign I struck truth somewhere tbh.
    It was just an observation.
    No need to keep bringing it up
    Also Ty for answering my question on henrique
    ….

  32. jayzz says:

    Pouzar:
    Please Please Please be Bennett.

    This lol

  33. hags9k says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Equal chances of Klowe sending one of these Cs back to junior next fall, and McCurdy landing a date with ScarJo.

  34. sliderule says:

    You have to think that the oilers will be choosing from what’s left over from Draisaitl ,Bennett and DalColle.
    It’s amazing to me that most of the posters on this blog are stats people and ignore the stats for Ekblad..He was named top defensive D ,Top offensive D ,Best shot and hardest shot in OHL coaches poll for his conference.The votes were overwhelming.He scored more goals than Doughty and points were similar.He played very well at WJC and prospect game.If Florida and Sabres pass on him the oilers should run to the podium to accept him.
    The three remaining players all fit oilers needs.They all have warts.Is Draisatl with his older birth date a Staal or Torres.Is Bennett Gilmour or a better Brule.Is Reinhart going to be a slightly bigger RNH or a meaker version.
    We all have our own opinion but if the oilers don’t luck out with Ekblad I hope the scouts know what they are doing.

  35. striatic says:

    preferences are:

    Ekblad, Bennett, trade the pick, Reinhart, Draisaitl

    in that order.

    for now.

    acquiring a 2nd line C via trade or free agency seems much easier than finding a first pairing D.

  36. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    You have to think that the oilers will be choosing from what’s left over from Draisaitl ,Bennett and DalColle.
    It’s amazing to me that most of the posters on this blog are stats people and ignore the stats for Ekblad..He was named top defensive D ,Top offensive D ,Best shot and hardest shot in OHL coaches poll for his conference.The votes were overwhelming.He scored more goals than Doughty and points were similar.He played very well at WJC and prospect game.IfFlorida and Sabres pass on him the oilers should run to the podium to accept him.
    The three remaining players all fit oilers needs.They all have warts.Is Draisatlwith his older birth date a Staalor Torres.Is Bennett Gilmour or a better Brule.Is Reinhart going to be a slightly bigger RNHora meaker version.
    We all have ourown opinion but if the oilers don’t luck out with Ekblad I hope the scouts know what they are doing.

    I don’t think the Oilers get a chance at Ekblad, but would be shocked if they passed on him were he available.

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Another argumentfor Bennett

    “If you follow the Oilers at all, you’ve heard the local media go on ad nauseum about how the Oilers need to get bigger. I’m sure that the Ducks’ size doesn’t hurt them. At the same time, as you watch these, a lot of this isn’t size – it’s a willingness to challenge and engage the other team as opposed to kind of falling back and hoping that they screw up.”

    Tyler Dellow

    Unsurprisingly, this is an argument for good players and not an argument for Bennett.

  38. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    I’ve been swung to the Draisaitl side of the debate after seeing the highlight package. The strength will translate better to the NHL game better than Bennett’s speed advantage.

    Also Paajarvi hasn’t played in the playoffs yet. I would be very much for dealing a pick to STL to re- acquire him. Nice toolset, and could replace whoever on 4th line LW .

    It is very unlikely that St. Louis brings back Ott, Morrow, and Roy. They need a cheap Paajarvi next year. They have Berglund, Sobotka, and Schwartz as RFA’s that they have to pay real dollars to.

    Plus re-signing Miller, or substitute will not be cheap.

  39. Rondo says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    The quote is out of context but it is Bennett’s week.

  40. jayzz says:

    sliderule,

    Time will tell, only issue I have with the young man is heavy feet, he needs to play against men before his true worth is shown.
    Always the issue with drafting D
    Wonder if Col regrets not taking jones last year .. Just saying

  41. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: …I have nothing to gain by trumpeting one guy over another…

    Except Pouliot. ;)

  42. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Rondo:
    I believe there is a better than 50% chance Florida will takeEkblad.Giventhat they took Barkov a centre last year over Seth Jones. Not a stretchbecause Ekbladcould be ranked #1 before the draft.

    If they end up with Ekblad and Barkov, will that package be better than Jones and one of the 3 centers?

  43. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Unsurprisingly, this is argument for good players and not an argument for Bennett.

    Ah, but were we to diagram it out, how much space of the “Good Player” circle might be occupied by the “Bennett” circle?

  44. godot10 says:

    Rondo: I can’t see Reinhart as an Oiler he sounds very similar to RNH.I think at the end of the day Oilers will decidebetween 3 players .Bennett , Ekblad and Draisaitl.

    Reinhart is the RH centre of the three. Stylistically, from the video, Draisaitl is the most like Nugent-Hopkins, a perimeter passer. With average skating, Draisaitl is a big Gagner who probably plays better defensively.

  45. striatic says:

    How do Draisaitl and Reinhart’s NHLEs stack up against RNH’s?

  46. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk: For me, whoever the oilers pick, he has to turn out to be better than the flames pick.That’s the number 1 factor. Let’s say oilers pick one of the centers and the flames pick a center. If the oilers pick player x and the flames pick player y and player y dominates our player for years to come, there will be hell to pay with this fan base.

    I feel the same way you do.

    If Ekblad is there at #3, I would take him. We can put him back in junior for another year and plan from a position of strength and trade for an established player of need when the time is right.

  47. RBB says:

    Good evening Lowetide,

    What is the Vollman NHLE for Ekblad? (and Fleury (for fun)?) compared to previous top dmen draft picks?

    Regards,

    Results.Based.Budgeting

  48. RexLibris says:

    On Bennett’s size, he’s 6′ 181lbs according to EliteProspects and is a June birthday, so just missed the 2015 draft.

    Who’s to say he doesn’t grow another inch and add 15 more pounds between now and his 22nd birthday?

    Draisaitl looks like the right match for what this team has been wanting since they traded Jason Arnott. But perhaps Bennett is a more appropriate fit. All things being equal, why not select the player who displays those characteristics you deem to be most desirable?

    In the end, as always, I’ll trust in MacG/MacT to make the right decision because really, what choice do I have?

  49. Rondo says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    S Jones > Ekblad
    Barkov > Any of the 3 centres.

    Therefore

    Trade the #3 pick for Barkov

  50. hunter1909 says:

    The fact that I saw Bennett and the german guy exactly 2-3 minutes apiece on Youtube, and having my impressions mirrored by several so called experts makes me suspicious that a lot of the experts don’t really spend any more time on this sort of thing as I just did.

    Lazy bums, lol.

  51. Lowetide says:

    RBB:
    Good evening Lowetide,

    What is the Vollman NHLEfor Ekblad? (and Fleury (for fun)?) compared to previous top dmen draft picks?

    Regards,

    Results.Based.Budgeting

    Ekblad 82GP, 10-12-22
    fleury 82GP, 2 -14-16

  52. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    LT, How do Vollman equivalencies work for junior players? Are they adjusted by birth month or is the whole draft class getting the same adjustment?

  53. hunter1909 says:

    Watching Malkin, it made me think they could stick him back on defense. He’d tower over everything like Pronger, except with elite level attacking skills.

    They need to start paying for this.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jayzz:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Iv seen not Lt but his faithful lap dogs write out lines with Bennett in the 2 spot, also I read almost every blog you write, I seem to have bothered you with my observation, a sign I struck truth somewhere tbh.
    It was just an observation.
    No need to keep bringing it up
    Also Ty for answering my question on henrique
    ….

    Well. thanks for reading! (seriously)

    If you read up thread, I myself suggested pencilling anyone in for next year isn’t a good idea. And, I suspect most who do are thinking long term not actually next year.

    By and large the people here are pro development. especially LT.

    I only responded to you the once.

    I don’t think we can get Henrique for Gagner. If we could, I’d be happy to do it.

  55. Ducey says:

    Seems that Bennett is better statistically than Draisaitl in every category except height and weight.

    Having said that they are all very close.

  56. Lowetide says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴:
    LT, How do Vollman equivalencies work for junior players? Are they adjusted by birth month or is the whole draft class getting the same adjustment?

    Whole draft class same adjustment.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    The quote is out of context but it is Bennett’s week.

    Sure is. I’d love to take him home in the Summer too. But, I like all of them, so there’s that. And Draisaitl is a gold plated God.

    RexLibris: Ah, but were we to diagram it out, how much space of the “Good Player” circle might be occupied by the “Bennett” circle?

    probably most of it by prospect standards. Or, it’s not an argument against Bennett. It just isn’t an argument for him.

    We’re going to have trouble if we start defining “good players” based on other people’s fleeting observations and not something more tangible and repeatable by others. We’ll end up shunning Penner, or something.

    Rondo:
    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    S Jones > Ekblad
    Barkov> Any of the 3 centres.

    Therefore

    Trade the #3 pick for Barkov

    Love to. No way Barkov is going anywhere. Tallon’s been open to anything but a very select few. Barkov in the inner circle.

  58. rich says:

    RexLibris:
    On Bennett’s size, he’s 6′ 181lbs according to EliteProspects and is a June birthday, so just missed the 2015 draft.

    Who’s to say he doesn’t grow another inch and add 15 more pounds between now and his 22nd birthday?

    Draisaitl looks like the right match for what this team has been wanting since they traded Jason Arnott. But perhaps Bennett is a more appropriate fit. All things being equal, why not select the player who displays those characteristics you deem to be most desirable?

    In the end, as always, I’ll trust in MacG/MacT to make the right decision because really, what choice do I have?

    Good stuff here Rex. I don’t pretend to know who the Oilers will take, but, this is pretty compelling.

    Am not sure who posted it earlier this week (maybe Rickithebear), but when you look at how young Bennett is and the numbers he’s put up, it’s very impressive.

    Not that Draisaitl isn’t either, but he is quite a bit older and his numbers are in the same range.

    I haven’t checked to see (and will closer to the draft) what percentage of each team’s offense they produced, but that adds more context.

    All things being equal, I’d be very happy with Bennett if he is there at #3. If he’s not and Ekblad falls to us – that’s fine as well. At that point, it would not surprise me if we were able to get him if MacT then makes a trade from strength (blueline prospects) to address the need at center.

    Lot’s to keep an eye on on draft day for sure.

  59. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide: Whole draft class same adjustment.

    Do you know the adjustment for the whole class? and the adjustments for one year older and younger?

  60. Lowetide says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴: Do you know the adjustment for the whole class? and the adjustments for one year older and younger?

    Yes, but I don’t feel that it would be fair to publish it. Rob Vollman’s book contains it, though.

  61. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    Lowetide: Yes, but I don’t feel that it would be fair to publish it. Rob Vollman’s book contains it, though.

    Thanks. What I had in mind was interpolating the equivalencies to birth month to see what the list above would look like.

  62. gr8one says:

    Pretty much by every metric Bennett is ahead of Draisatl, except size, in addition to that more “experts” and scouts have Bennett ranked higher.

    The size isn’t even really that big of a difference height wise, and weight Bennett can add, especially since he’s younger. And then when you factor in how the scouting reports read that Bennett has a more in your face style and plays bigger whereas Draisatl’s tend to say that despite his size, he is more passive I don’t know how one can justify taking the German over Bennett.

    I think Draisatl will be a good player and won’t hate if that’s who we get, but I think Bennett will be the better player overall.

  63. HiddenDarts says:

    Re: Advanced Statistics from the last thread…

    I love advanced stats. Just love them. Really predictive, and it doesn’t just seem to be coincidence that good teams have good advanced stats.

    I guess the biggest problem is exactly what Taylor Hall was basically asking in his interview with Rishaug: “how do you take bad advanced stats, distill them and then instruct the player to be better?”

    That’s the issue with them. We know that certain teams are NOT good. But how do we take a Sam Gagner and turn him into a Justin Williams? HOW?

    This information is all fine and dandy, but because we can’t synthesize it and create a solution yet, I’m not surprised the Old Skool NHL Managers poop on it whenever they get a chance.

  64. David says:

    I’m becoming more and more skeptical of the age argument. Draisaitl is eight months older. (Seven months and three weeks) that isn’t a whole lot. And if you want to make a big deal of that and want to compare Bennett’s next year to Draisaitl’s year this year, then next season you have to make a deal of Bennett being four months older than Draisaitl was this year.

    The other angle people always use is Draisaitl was almost in last draft and Bennett is almost in next years draft. Ignoring once again that there is a four month gap in there (four months and one week) and the cut off is a day, if Draisaitl was in last years draft what everyone would have been saying about him is that he’s so young he’s almost in the next years draft. And if Bennett was in next years draft all the talk would be about how old he is and was almost in the previous draft.

    Draisaitl is in this draft. Bennett is in this draft. It’s not that big of a deal.

  65. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    gr8one: I don’t know how one can justify

    A little imagination or reading can work wonders. Hey, I’m leaning to Bennet but there are so few stats published for this age group.

  66. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    David: Draisaitl is eight months older. (Seven months and three weeks) that isn’t a whole lot.

    And yet 2/3 of the NHL’s players come from half of the calendar, or something like that.

  67. jayzz says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Apologize that quote was meant for Lt, although reading all of his blogs I do consider your entry’s to be well thought with intelligent observations.
    I just wanted to call LT out on his bias for Bennett that is all.
    The oilers are going to get a very effective player with this pick regardless if whom it may be.
    Apologize for the snark in my posts today, watching another year of playoffs sans oil stung a little more this year than any other and I’m lashing out .. Mb

  68. Rondo says:

    Oilers will look at Bennett’s body type , like they did with Hall , they thought Hall was going to get much bigger given their analysis.

  69. Fawzan Al-Naft says:

    If we believe Bennett is a significantly better actual hockey player–and I’m not sure the data supports that–then how much of an obstacle is size? If I recall, Taylor Hall was listed at 6’0.5, 185 in his draft year. According to Central Scouting, Bennett is 6’0.25, 181, at almost a year younger. I don’t think Taylor Hall is having any size-related problems in the NHL, and especially given Bennett has a much more aggressive style (118 PIM to Hall’s 56 in their respective draft years) then I don’t have an issue in that regard. A more aggressive, defensively-oriented Taylor Hall clone who plays center is fine with me, and if that is Bennet’s ceiling, sign me up.

    To be clear, I’m not sure Hall is the best comp, but I’ve heard the comparison made and from what I’ve seen of Bennett, it’s not too ridiculous.

  70. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    HiddenDarts: This information is all fine and dandy, but because we can’t synthesize it and create a solution yet, I’m not surprised the Old Skool NHL Managers poop on it whenever they get a chance.

    Some of the NBA work based on full player tracking start from the premise that the Old Skool guys need to get something that tells the players what to do differently. E.g. evaluating the players proximity to what the system called for. If that helps the managers the next logical step is to evaluate tweaks to the system. Conversion requires trust.

  71. RBB says:

    Lowetide,

    Huh, so Ekblad could conceivably contribute at the NHL level next season.

    LT, Has there been any discussion in the NHLE-circles you hangout in about reverse re-engineering NHLE by taking into account variances in level of competition rookies face when the do play in the NHL?

  72. "Steve Smith" says:

    I’m, like, 53% certain that Bennett would be a better pick than Draisaitl. As a result, if the Oilers pick Draisaitl over Bennett, I will throw something at the television and vow never to watch another Oilers game.

    Isn’t fandom fun?*

    *No. No it is not – at least, Oilers fandom isn’t.

  73. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    jayzz: I just wanted to call LT out on his bias for Bennett that is all.

    Don’t let any evidence – e.g. the 3 consecutive posts on his initial top 3 weeks before getting around to Bennett – interfere in any way with your unencumbered enjoyment of your truthiness.

  74. Ducey says:

    I see OKC is playing the backups tonight. They have SMac as the “C”.

    Maybe he is retiring…

  75. gr8one says:

    David:
    I’m becoming more and more skeptical of the age argument. Draisaitl is eight months older. (Seven months and three weeks) that isn’t a whole lot. And if you want to make a big deal of that and want to compare Bennett’s next year to Draisaitl’s year this year, then next season you have to make a deal of Bennett being four months older than Draisaitl was this year.

    The other angle people always use is Draisaitl was almost in last draft and Bennett is almost in next years draft. Ignoring once again that there is a four month gap in there (four months and one week) and the cut off is a day, if Draisaitl was in last years draft what everyone would have been saying about him is that he’s so young he’s almost in the next years draft. And if Bennett was in next years draft all the talk would be about how old he is and was almost in the previous draft.

    Draisaitl is in this draft. Bennett is in this draft. It’s not that big of a deal.

    Don’t underestimate that age difference in kids this age…it can be massive.

    http://www.gvsu.edu/gvnow/?articleId=23A74B04-DCD7-1E76-02BEACC1B6BD2B29

  76. David says:

    In regards to weight it is true that Draisaitl isn’t that tall. 6’1 is very average and Bennett is 6’0. Not much difference. However the max weight that Bennett will every play at would be 195. Draisaitl will probably play at 220. That is a considerable difference. In all fairness I’m one of those guys who’s only seen the two of then in highlight packages. But Draisaitl is being slandered a bit much when people say he’s big but he’s soft. He definately knows he’s got weight and strength and uses it to protect the puck and drive the net. Draisaitl will be harder to knock off the puck than Bennett.

    As for Bennett I like my players to have an edge and play physical but I don’t want them to take penalties and I want my star players to be on the ice and not in the box. Bennett will have to learn to not cross the line in his aggressiveness.

    The third thing is the people who penalize Draisaitl because he’s big. There are big defenders and forwards in the WHL. Lots of them. G. Reinhart, Moroz, Kanzig to name a few. There are also many small players in the NHL. Ellis, Ennis, Conacher to name a few. I completely disagree that Draisaitl should be penalized because he’s bigger than these tiny juniors and can overwhelm them physically and won’t be able to when he reaches the NHL. Yes there are 16 year olds in the WHL but there are a lot more 18 and 19 year olds and some 20 year olds. And when Draisaitl is 25 and 220 pounds he will be able to push around several player in the NHL. His size is an asset. Not a reason we should pass on him.

  77. Lowetide says:

    RBB:
    Lowetide,

    Huh, so Ekblad could conceivably contribute at the NHL level next season.

    LT, Has there been any discussion in the NHLE-circles you hangout in about reverse re-engineering NHLEby taking into account variances in level of competition rookies face when the do play in the NHL?

    Gabe’s description of his NHLE is very specific, but I’m not certain anyone does it to that degree. If you do, please keep me updated, this is the good stuff (for me). It allows me to trump Sam Bennett and flush all of the horrible children who are trying to take his shining glory from him.

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jayzz:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Apologize that quote was meant for Lt, although reading all of his blogs I do consider your entry’s to be well thought with intelligent observations.I just wanted to call LT out on his bias for Bennett that is all.
    The oilers are going to get a very effective player with this pick regardless if whom it may be.Apologize for the snark in my posts today, watching another year of playoffs sans oil stung a little more this year than any other and I’m lashing out .. Mb

    Ahhh. well in that case, thanks anyway, I guess.

    I really think saying LT has a Bennett bias is kind of absurd though.

  79. anonymous says:

    Having been relocated to Ontario I can say with confidence that there is a definite eastern/ohl bias. I get the feeling the choice will be between Reindhart and Draisaitl. While Reinhardt gets some chatter out here, Draisaitl barely gets a whisper. I think Florida takes Ekblad and Buffalo takes Bennett.

    That said I’ve only seen Bennett play live and would be thrilled if they get him.

  80. flyfish1168 says:

    JMHO. Whoever we draft, we are in a position to return the player back to junior if it is deemed that it is better for their development . We don’t need to rush them, let them develop properly in junior then the WJC and possible send the to AHL for some after season games.

    I remember watching Ryan Getzlaf his last year of junior he was much stronger and more confident then anyone out there.

  81. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    I’m, like, 53% certain that Bennett would be a better pick than Draisaitl.As a result, if the Oilers pick Draisaitl over Bennett, I will throw something at the television and vow never to watch another Oilers game.

    Isn’t fandom fun?*

    *No.No it is not – at least, Oilers fandom isn’t.

    throw something at the television regardless. According to Jim is probably on and it deserves it.

    Ducey:
    I see OKC is playing the backups tonight.They have SMac as the “C”.

    Maybe he is retiring…

    Rumor’s been that he’s retiring this year for a couple of months. Nice gesture from the organization that he clearly loved playing for, even if he’s terrible at hockey.

    Wish him well. Hope a few of his friends could leave the league at the same time.

  82. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    From LT on Oilersnation

    “Bennett is 6.0, 181 and physical. He has 118pims.”
    Draisaitl is 6.01, 209 and wins battles but is not truculent. He has 24pims”

    My response to this was, if all things being equal between these two kids, the Oilers HAVE to draft Bennett.

    I know Romulus would disagree with this but, IMO the Oilers have a full deck of players like Draisaitl.

    Although I wouldn’t be at all upset with drafting Draisaitl, IMO the Oilers need a different kind of player in the mix.

    Doug Gilmour has me sold on Bennett.

    Also, Bennett is Kingston’s main PK’er, a huge benefit having a kid that already has a good grasp of defensive responsibilities.

  83. HiddenDarts says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴: Some of the NBA work based on full player tracking start from the premise that the Old Skool guys need to get something that tells the players what to do differently. E.g. evaluating the players proximity to what the system called for. If that helps the managers the next logical step is to evaluate tweaks to the system. Conversion requires trust.

    Nice point. I wonder (and I wonder because really no one has a clue out there) how much the great Corsi teams pay attention. Darryl Sutter doesn’t seem like your “tweak based on numbers” kind of coach, but his team rules the NHL in the possession metric.

    Obviously you don’t want to analyze until the fun comes out of the game (Kings again), but could the Oilers take a innovative first step here? Could this team be the first moneypuck team?

    There’s that ol’ optimism again. BAD OILERS FAN! BAD!

  84. David says:

    gr8one: Don’t underestimate that age difference in kids this age…it can be massive.

    http://www.gvsu.edu/gvnow/?articleId=23A74B04-DCD7-1E76-02BEACC1B6BD2B29

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴: And yet 2/3 of the NHL’s players come from half of the calendar, or something like that.

    A quick google-ing of the who’s who of NHL players shows them all over the map. including players who would be older in their draft such as Alexander Ovechkin and Taylor Hall.

  85. flyfish1168 says:

    RBB: Lowetide, Huh, so Ekblad could conceivably contribute at the NHL level next season.LT, Has there been any discussion in the NHLE-circles you hangout in about reverse re-engineering NHLE by taking into account variances in level of competition rookies face when the do play in the NHL?

    When I was in Phoenix last week I was fortunate to have been at the same hotel as the Manager of Player development for the Barrie Colts. He was very informative about his players and how Ekblad has the correct mindset.

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wes Mantooth-11: I know Romulus would disagree with this but, IMO the Oilers have a full deck of players like Draisaitl.

    I don’t agree with the typology the narratives are developing.

    We absolutely do not have a full deck of good players. Nor, do we have anything like a partial deck of good centers.

    We need those things. Good players. Good centers.

    That doesn’t mean draft Draisaitl over the others.

    Hell, I’ve said it before many times. I’d be thrilled if we drafted Nylander.

    We need good players. We need good centers.

    All the rest about playing style is noise to justify a preference.

    There are much better arguments in Bennett’s favor: namely age and his NHLE apparently (I’m still not sure about this high rating of the OHL).

  87. Lowetide says:

    One item that was passed along to me re: Draisaitl. A lot of attention has been paid to his lack of pims/physical play, but the person I talked to stressed:

    1. The German was very good at winning battles with his size/leaning on people
    2. Exceptionally skilled with the puck

    I don’t have a horse in this race, but imo PIMs is maybe the craziest reason ever to like one guy over another. The guy with the PIMS may be dumb as dirt and the PIMS are a reflection of that!

    Not suggesting Bennett is that player, just pointing out the obvious re PIMS.

  88. David says:

    Wes Mantooth-11: “Bennett is 6.0, 181 and physical. He has 118pims.”
    Draisaitl is 6.01, 209 and wins battles but is not truculent. He has 24pims”

    Actually these two stat lines draw me to Draisatl. The key phrase in regards to Draisaitl is “wins battles”. Who cares is a player is truculant if they win battles? that’s the job isn’t it?

    Seems like if i was a Kingston fan Bennett would have caused me to pull out a lot of my hair with all his penalties. He can’t win battles or score goals for that matter when he’s in the penalty box.

  89. David says:

    Lowetide:
    One item that was passed along to me re: Draisaitl. A lot of attention has been paid to his lack of pims/physical play, but the person I talked to stressed:

    1. The German was very good at winning battles with his size/leaning on people
    2. Exceptionally skilled with the puck

    I don’t have a horse in this race, but imo PIMs is maybe the craziest reason ever to like one guy over another. The guy with the PIMS may be dumb as dirt and the PIMS are a reflection of that!

    Not suggesting Bennett is that player, just pointing out the obvious re PIMS.

    looks like LT beat me to it.

  90. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    David:
    A quick google-ing of the who’s who of NHL players shows them all over the map. including players who would be older in their draft such as Alexander Ovechkin and Taylor Hall.

    Birth months ranked by nhl players

    1 January 738
    2 March 694
    3 April 669
    4 February 668

    Birth months ranked by games played

    1 January 182 710
    2 February 172 301
    3 March 171 253
    4 April 158 737

    thanks google

    http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month-totals/nhl-players-career-stats.html

    UPDATE

    David:”See my above post on age. I don’t think it’s much of a reason either”

    And yet it moves.

  91. hunter1909 says:

    Wes Mantooth-11: My response to this was, if all things being equal between these two kids, the Oilers HAVE to draft Bennett.

    I prefer Bennett, because I watched less than 10 minutes total on Youtube between the two players, and think Bennett plays with fire, while Draisaitl looks awkward but has size…either quality desperately needed at centre ice position Katzland.

    These morons are wasting so many of their prospects I’ve given up counting. Oilers have turned everyone into Bhuddist junior masters, assuming there is such a thing.

    LOL someone from the Indian community could provide a multi armed diety of Kevin Lowe. That way, there are plenty of ring spaces.

  92. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    I disagree 14minutes of penalties is perfect.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=2035

  93. David says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: There are much better arguments in Bennett’s favor: namely age and his NHLE apparently (I’m still not sure about this high rating of the OHL).

    I’m also very skeptical of this rating the OHL much higher than the WHL. I would be very interested to hear an explaination.

    See my above post on age. I don’t think it’s much of a reason either. But I would be interested to hear why you think it is.

  94. jayzz says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    Truth? Former post pre lottery were typically on ekblad and Reinhardt since lottery everyday all day Bennettmania.
    Like I said I read almost every post and this is the general feeling I come away with IMO.

  95. Cobbler says:

    It is amazing the turnaround in the performance if the raptors this season since trading Rudy Gay. I especially like how Ujiri this evening didn’t take credit for the trade changing the fortunes of his team, but gave the credit to the players. This team has turned a corner because they now for whatever reason play as a team. I see the Oilers in a similar light. The debate is less about crossing the best overall numbers of the draft bunch but picking the player they best feel espouses their view of the team they are building. Who I’ll help provide that chemistry; that bond between players? IMO, and I am a believer in underlying player and team numbers, but the Oilers more than anything need to solve the chemistry equation, between players and coach and coach and players. Pick the player because he is the right guy, not because he is the highest scoring player. That’s the job and that the mystery.

  96. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    David: I’m also very skeptical of this rating the OHL much higher than the WHL. I would be very interested to hear an explaination.

    See my above post on age. I don’t think it’s much of a reason either. But I would be interested to hear why you think it is.

    I don’t think it’s a big issue, but I think it’s an issue worth noting and weighting to some extent.

    It makes sense to me that players nearly a year apart at such a tender development age would need to be weighted differently.

    But, I don’t think we need to bank on it. Simply take it as one factor.

  97. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    I know it’s a bit of handicap taking each of LT’s comments as an incremental observation from an enquiring mind that is not made up, but alas the lot of some is to suffer that very affliction.

  98. anonymous says:

    David: I’m also very skeptical of this rating the OHL much higher than the WHL. I would be very interested to hear an explaination.

    See my above post on age. I don’t think it’s much of a reason either. But I would be interested to hear why you think it is.

    Haven’t been to a WHL game in years but from memory I’d say it might be a rougher league but that’s nit picking. I’ve heard the excuse that higher profile imports come over to the ohl rather than the WHL or the Q. Can’t verify that.

  99. David says:

    НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴,

    If we’re really going to do this
    Seguin January
    Stamkos February
    Chara March
    Kovalchuck April
    Getzlaf May
    Spezza june
    Malkin July
    Crosby August
    Ovechkin September
    Doan October
    Hall November
    Doughty December

    also interesting that you are using stats saying that the most players come from the first four months of the year to advocate taking a player born in June.

  100. Pouzar says:

    Nathan Mac….*drool*

    SO jealous

  101. David says:

    Players that were born in October (Month Draisatl is born in)

    Mario Lemieux
    Mike Gartner
    Glenn Anderson
    Paul Kariya
    Shane Doan
    Henrik Zetterburg
    Phil Kessel
    and many more http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month/nhl-players-born-in-october-career-stats.html

    I understand that there are more players from the earlier months but that goes out the window once you are looking at a player. The scouts didn’t watch Lemieux play and go through their checklist:
    Skating-yep
    shooting-yep
    passing-yep
    yadda yadda yadda-yep
    born in the first four months where most hockey players come from-nope
    sorry he had a massive red flag we should pass.

    It is interesting that more players come from earlier months and there are lots of theories but when scouting Draisatl it doesn’t matter.

  102. Maverick says:

    Rondo:
    Oilers will look at Bennett’s body type , like they didwith Hall , they thought Hall was going to getmuch bigger given their analysis.

    The combine and interviews might be the deciding factor between Bennett and Draisaitl.
    I believe Simon Bennett attended the Hall draft on the first Oil Change, and made the comment about Hall’s body type. The Oilers Fitness Consultant Simon Bennett might be the deciding factor on drafting Sam Bennett or not. That’s an interesting weird vibe isn’t it? (Bennett/Bennett?)

    Anyways, here is a more “homer view” of the two players and their body types.
    Draisaitl = Hall’s body type
    Bennett = RNH’s body type

    Love Bennett’s drive but with already a small framed body at center (RNH) I think a more broader shouldered Draisaitl might be the better option.

  103. Marcus Oilerius says:

    David,

    Lemieux was a generational talent, reocgnized since he was in his early-mid teens.

    But if given the choice between two similar players, one almost a year younger, who do you go for?

    Dal Colle is scoring at almost 2PPG in the playoffs, has size, speed, physicality, and plays centre.

    http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month/nhl-players-born-in-august-career-stats.html

    An even more impressive list. More points in the top 10 than the October list, despite Lemieux. :)

  104. Lowetide says:

    Oesterle scores his first pro goal, assist to Fyten and Tuphimaa. 1-1 tie. Tuohimaa .962SP in his AHL debut.

  105. David says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    David,

    Lemieux was a generational talent, reocgnized since he was in his early-mid teens.

    But if given the choice between two similar players, one almost a year younger, who do you go for?

    Dal Colle is scoring at almost 2PPG in the playoffs, has size, speed, physicality, and plays centre.

    http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month/nhl-players-born-in-august-career-stats.html

    An even more impressive list.More points in the top 10 than the October list, despite Lemieux.

    The big question is will Dal Colle play center in the NHL?

  106. rich says:

    And from OKC:

    Oesterle (Fyten, Tuohima)

    Tied at 1 in the 3rd. Good for Oesterle.

  107. kooler says:

    Lowetide,

    How do they do in the face off circle?

  108. Lowetide says:

    Hamilton (Gernat, Kellen Jones)

  109. rich says:

    Hamilton (Gernat, Jones)

    Tied at 2

    Edit:

    Kellen Jones with his first point in the AHL.

  110. НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴ says:

    David: If we’re really going to do this

    ??????!

    I was pointing out that the first 4 birth months are systematically over-represented in players in the league, games played etc. As your anecdotal evidence suggests there are good players in every draft month.

    Small age difference do make a dramatic difference in who makes it to the NHL. So we’d been missing something if we don’t consider that draft year stats may miss some of what the youngest members in the draft class will have to offer. All other things being equal the younger player on average may be the better player long term. Definitely a significant factor. Scouts will factor that in to the rest of their view of how players have and will evolve.

  111. Lowetide says:

    Curtis Hamilton in his last 28GP: 9-4-13. I don’t think it’s enough, but I still hope they sign him.

  112. VanOil says:

    gr8one:
    Pretty much by every metric Bennett is ahead of Draisatl, except size, in addition to that more “experts” and scouts have Bennett ranked higher.

    As it has not been mentioned in this thread and I feel it should be mentioned in every tread: Draisatl has another vital metric that is better than Bennett. The size of his stick blade, he plays with a Smyth-zonian canoe paddle blade. I believe the Oilers require this in there line up at all times, like a token Finn.

    My hope for the draft is that Eastern bias leads to both OHL kids being taken before the Oilers select. Unfortunately this means Calgary will also benefit.

  113. rich says:

    Tuohima stops 36 of 38 in regulation. Be interested to hear what Nelson has to say about him afterwards. One game does not a career make, but for a guy who has not played in a month, that’s not bad.

  114. Lowetide says:

    rich:
    Tuohima stops 36 of 38 in regulation.Be interested to hear what Nelson has to say about him afterwards.One game does not a career make, but for a guy who has not played in a month, that’s not bad.

    You just never know until they get here. Jesus he’d be a dream if he delivered.

  115. hunter1909 says:

    VanOil: As it has not been mentioned in this thread and I feel it should be mentioned in every tread: Draisatl has another vital metric that is better than Bennett. The size of his stick blade, he plays with a Smyth-zonian canoe paddle blade. I believe the Oilers require this in there line up at all times, like a token Finn.
    My hope for the draft is that Eastern bias leads to both OHL kids being taken before the Oilers select. Unfortunately this means Calgary will also benefit.

    Arguably Draisratl is another wacko Euro, the Nail Yakupov/Jessee Niinnimaki kind that Lowe and MacT hate so much and even AHL rookie phenom head coach Marty McFly seems to be onside with taking a personal interest in tormenting.

    Add: Mikhnov, Rita, Salmalailen

  116. rich says:

    Barons win in SO.

    Had to chuckle when Nelson let Smac start the SO.

    Byars is a very good play-by-play man. More enjoyable than Jack Michaels.

  117. Ducey says:

    rich:
    Tuohima stops 36 of 38 in regulation.Be interested to hear what Nelson has to say about him afterwards.One game does not a career make, but for a guy who has not played in a month, that’s not bad.

    It is Iowa though – last place in the AHL west. Lowest goals for in the league….

  118. Ducey says:

    rich:
    Barons win in SO.

    Had to chuckle when Nelson let Smac start the SO.

    Byars is a very good play-by-play man.More enjoyable than Jack Michaels.

    Smac was 1st star….

  119. rich says:

    Ducey,

    And he broke the glass behind the net with his shootout miss (slapshot). Bahahahaha!

  120. gr8one says:

    off topic, but anyone else seen this?

    http://www.givemesport.com/454897-tiny-rookie-beats-up-veteran-enforcer-in-awesome-nhl-fight

    Damn that looks good on John Scott.

  121. 719 says:

    I know Tim Murray covets the high draft picks. I keep postulating a trade that involves Meyers and Grigerenko coming our way and the pick and some other pieces going Buffalo’s way.

  122. kooler says:

    Draisatl / Bennett…..besides penalty minutes, which one including Reinhardt is better at winning draws.

  123. vangolf says:

    This Bennett talk is both highlighting and obscuring what may become a 3 horse conversation (ie., the very real possibility Reinhart is available at #3).

  124. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’m in complete agreement with getting good players, centers, wingers, on and on.

    What I meant by having a full deck of players is the Oilers top six with the exception of Peron all have a similar qualities when they play, the seldom give as good as they get, they seldom show aggression or push back….tough, greasy hockey.

    At points during the season they started to show a little jam.

    we simply could use a center who has that……call it aggressive personality with or Without the puck, a different skill set that’s not totally based on skill alone.

    Another similar center to RNH won’t be terrible as I said, but the Oilers lack a highly competitive personalities who might bring some different intangibles to the team and possible amp up the overall team toughness that’s difficult to play against…..maybe a Brown type player from LA?

    Anyways, hope I articulated that better.

    My bad.

  125. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Lowetide:
    One item that was passed along to me re: Draisaitl. A lot of attention has been paid to his lack of pims/physical play, but the person I talked to stressed:

    1. The German was very good at winning battles with his size/leaning on people
    2. Exceptionally skilled with the puck

    I don’t have a horse in this race, but imo PIMs is maybe the craziest reason ever to like one guy over another. The guy with the PIMS may be dumb as dirt and the PIMS are a reflection of that!

    Not suggesting Bennett is that player, just pointing out the obvious re PIMS.

    I understand the compete and battle, I liken Draisaitl to RNH that way. RNH has really become a player that wins a lot of battles lately and I’m very happy about that part of his game.

    My concern is more team toughness, push back , giving instead of receiving.

    That’s the difference I’ve noticed between these two draft picks, don’t care who they pick, as long as the right one doesn’t go 280km south because he was the more truculent one.

    Glencross really still bugs me bad…..

  126. geeker99 says:

    I know the playoffs are extreme games that matter. Watching a lot of players that we didn’t pick tonite that we don’t get to see too much. Johansen had a really strong game tonight, the avs are looking like the 80′s oilers. Mckinnon looks like an absolute star tonight. So want to see our youngsters in the playoffs. Get a real gauge of what is real. I know we didn’t have chance at Mc kinnon , he looks like a beaut.

  127. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    David: Actually these two stat lines draw me to Draisatl. The key phrase in regards to Draisaitl is “wins battles”. Who cares is a player is truculant if they win battles? that’s the job isn’t it?

    Seems like if i was a Kingston fan Bennett would have caused me to pull out a lot of my hair with all his penalties. He can’t win battles or score goals for that matter when he’s in the penalty box.

    Thanks for the reply

    By all accounts Bennett wins his share of battles as well as creates some just like Peron does, team toughness is a big deal for me, not ever player has to fight, in fact I’m going the way of does it even belong in the game anymore.

    I’m not huge on PIM, what it does tell me as the kid gives as good as he gets and that’s a huge plus on what is considered by many the softest team in the NHL.

    Sometimes you have to “make space” out there, don’t tell me you never felt a nice warm feeling when Hall tuned in Clutterbuck.

    FWIW I agree with Romulus in getting good players, the sooner Gazdic is irrelevant the better.

  128. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    hunter1909: I prefer Bennett, because I watched less than 10 minutes total on Youtube between the two players, and think Bennett plays with fire, while Draisaitllooks awkward but has size…either quality desperately needed at centre ice position Katzland.

    These morons are wasting so many of their prospects I’ve given up counting. Oilers have turned everyone into Bhuddist junior masters, assuming there is such a thing.

    LOL someone from the Indian community could provide a multi armed diety of Kevin Lowe. That way, there are plenty of ring spaces.

    If you liked the youtube video I suggest checking out what Gilmour & Gill say about the kid, pretty impressive stuff.

    You have to understand I’m a 50/50 on both these players except I just think Bennett brings something extra the Oilers lack at this time.

    Team toughness down the middle.

  129. flyfish1168 says:

    Very impress with the Avs team. High tempo game, back pressure, fast puck movement and Ryan O’Reilly what a beaut. Playing without their top dog in Duchene. Thinking they maybe the next power house in our conference. Especially if they can resign Stasny

  130. Hammers says:

    Wes Mantooth-11: If you liked the youtube video I suggest checking out what Gilmour & Gill say about the kid, pretty impressive stuff.

    You have to understand I’m a 50/50 on both these players except I just think Bennett brings something extra the Oilers lack at this time.

    Team toughness down the middle.

    If they draft Bennet he goes back to junior but any of the other top 3 have a chance of playing next year .Just saying .

  131. speeds says:

    http://theahl.com/stats/game-summary.php?game_id=1012237

    Is this accurate, did OKC only play 4D in tonight’s game?

  132. HiddenDarts says:

    Wow. My mistake. I had thought I’d logged into lowetide.ca, but apparently I’ve logged into lowtidesandthemanyphasesofthemoon.ca. When did the draft analysis here start including full astrological profiles?

  133. oliveoilers says:

    So, Bennett vs D2L. I believe neither of these players would hurt us, but who gives us more? When things are this close, the BPA isn’t clear, then go for what you need. The last Anaheim game, I watched a Ducks d-man/pylon just EASE Perron off the puck. That’s one of our most aggressive, nastiest forwards. It was just pure physics. Big player had position, smaller player, no matter how skilled couldn’t budge him. Bennett might have the moxy, but at 180lbs, I’d hope he’d be on the farm eating pies and drinking Guinness for a few years before he comes to the bigs. Because if he tries his ‘edge’ against the rest of the league’s best and biggest such as Getzlaf et al……well, I just hope the Oilers aren’t that dumb. They’ll eat him alive. RNH is a different beast, a smaller centre, but oh so smart, excellent skater and not overly abrasive so didn’t piss people off enough to clean his clock. (Because who’s coming to your rescue? Petry? Eberle?)

    With D2L, I think he can just be good being simply being. I seem to remember a love-fest for Penner not so long ago. A big guy who uses his size to his advantage but isn’t aggressive. He just has to play his game, and with D2L admitting he’s more of a set up man, a Draisaitl-Yakupov-Perron line might be worth a few shifts to see what we have. Bennett is a fine prospect, but given the choice of a good smaller player (fill out is just speculation) and a good larger player, then I know who we take. Especially because before this article, we were all crying out for a competent 2C with size.

  134. Younger Oil says:

    Speaking of NHL equivalencies, I decided to take another look at Yakimov and attempt to see how he could potentially do in the NHL. He got 13 points in 35 KHL games this year, playing just under 10 minutes a game. I decided to scale his points as if he was playing 15 minutes a game, which is probably similar to what he would be playing as a regular on a third line. That would make it 20 points in 35 KHL games. 20/35=0.5714, 0.5714*0.83*82=39. I used the KHL equivalency of 0.83, someone please correct me if that is wrong, but with those scaled calculations, Yakimov’s NHLE is greater than or equal to anyone in this draft class.

    Now, those numbers make me feel like I royally screwed up, but if they are even somewhat close to being right, that shows really well on Yakimov. Anyone else have input on this?

  135. Pouzar says:

    Wes Mantooth-11: If you liked the youtube video I suggest checking out what Gilmour & Gill say about the kid, pretty impressive stuff.

    You have to understand I’m a 50/50 on both these players except I just think Bennett brings something extra the Oilers lack at this time.

    Team toughness down the middle.

    Wes…I agree with everything you say RE: Bennett…and I love Dry Saddle too and the guys here who advocate for him. Don’t think we can lose either way.

  136. Rondo says:

    After watching Colorado , we need to draft Jack Eichel.

  137. AZOIL says:

    Nathan MacKinnon is 6’0 tall and only 182lbs, but I’d take him in a second over Leon! I think the whole “big German”, etc is a little overblown. Some kids just develop a little later. If bennet is performing better or similiar to Leon at a younger age, and has better 2 way game (something we seem to lack) why are we even discussing who to pick?

    Is be happy with Leon too, but I’m thinking we will be picking between Leon, and Sam reinhart. I think ekblad and bennet are 1,2.

  138. gogliano says:

    So this is probably too late to get much attention, but here it is:

    Are there any good empirical studies that look at how predictive the season PRIOR to the draft year is for players’ long term success? A ton of emphasis is placed on these kids’ final draft year, for obvious reasons, but I’m wondering if there is any statistical tells about whether you’re better off taking the kid who has performed well for two seasons in a row or if you’re better of taking the kid with more improvement in his draft season. The answer isn’t obvious to me and if I’d have to guess at bias it would be that we overly privilege the draft season over the draft season minus one.

  139. VanOil says:

    719:
    I know Tim Murray covets the high draft picks. I keep postulating a trade that involves Meyers and Grigerenko coming our way and the pick and some other pieces going Buffalo’s way.

    Pick + Gernat & ??? for Myers and Grigerenko?

  140. LMHF#1 says:

    719:
    I know Tim Murray covets the high draft picks. I keep postulating a trade that involves Meyers and Grigerenko coming our way and the pick and some other pieces going Buffalo’s way.

    Buffalo has a large number of interesting hockey players for such a bad team.

    Grigorenko and Ristolainen would have to be the names in the conversation if #3 is involved. Not both of course, but each worth considering.

  141. LMHF#1 says:

    speeds:
    http://theahl.com/stats/game-summary.php?game_id=1012237

    Is this accurate, did OKC only play 4D in tonight’s game?

    Steve MacIntyre wears the C, does nothing but gets first star, and shoots first in the SO?

    What the…

  142. HiddenDarts says:

    At the risk of trolling, is it possible that Draisaitl is Marcel Goc 2.0? Can anyone pull his draft profile up?

  143. Younger Oil says:

    Also, just one more note on age, I don’t think 8 months is going to make a huge difference between the players development wise. They’ve both had the same amount of time in the CHL, and isn’t that what matters? Plus, players born in Canada most likely have better coaching/more competition than other countries, or Bennett could have started playing hockey at a younger age than Draisaitl, so he could have had more time to develop. Nobody knows all that, so you have to take them as they are right now.

    It seems kind of pointless to me to compare Bennett 8 months from now to Draisaitl in the present, because Draisaitl will be better 8 months from now too, and it will always be like that. Maybe Bennett’s overall career will be 8 months longer than Draisaitl’s, but I dunno, age seems pretty trivial to me due to their career paths being completely different.

    They are both going to be the youngest players on their teams come October in all likelyhood, and will get the same amount of WHL and NHL experience in their careers. Besides physical development, which is a crapshoot, I just don’t see how those 8 months are ever going to come into play.

    All of that isn’t to say Draisaitl is better than Bennett, just a criticism of taking age into account over years of playing at levels of high competition.

  144. "Steve Smith" says:

    Hammers: If they draft Bennet he goes back to junior but any of the other top 3 have a chance of playing next year .Just saying .

    Sounds like a compelling argument for Bennett.

  145. "Steve Smith" says:

    HiddenDarts:
    Wow. My mistake. I had thought I’d logged into lowetide.ca, but apparently I’ve logged into lowtidesandthemanyphasesofthemoon.ca. When did the draft analysis here start including full astrological profiles?

    I’m not sure if you’re kidding, but in case you’re not: the focus on a player’s month of birth has nothing to do with astrology, but has to do with whether they’ve spent their entire hockey playing career playing against older or younger opponents. The empirical evidence bears out pretty strongly that that matters.

  146. OilLeak says:

    I still need to do more research, but as long as it’s not Ekblad I’ll be fine with the pick. What are his point splits like? My first impression was he’s a bit of a one trick pony at least on the offensive side of the puck.

    One player that should be be getting more attention is Nikolaj Ehlers, this kid can flat out play. He probably gets docked a bit because he plays with Drouin but that might be unfair. Good hands, speed to burn and averaged 4.55 shots per game this year in the Q. For comparison purposes, Nathan Mackinnon averaged 4.57 shots per game last season and Drouin averaged 3.53 shots per game. Drouin is averaging 4.7 shots per game this season.

  147. russ99 says:

    Good to see that someone in the stat community also sees that Bennett’s numbers his year may not translate to an advantage at the NHL level.

    With that in mind I also disagree that he’s a better 2-way prospect than Monanan who’s got a few inches and 20+ more pounds on him.

    Still think Draisaitl is the complete package. Look at Kyle Beach as to why points/PIM aren’t a good combination for a top prospect at the major junior level.

  148. Surly says:

    “Steve Smith”: Sounds like a compelling argument for Bennett.

    Completely agree for both the Player’s benefit and the Team’s.

    Eberle played his full two remaining years of junior (yes, a later 1st round pick but still an 18-year old kid) and it didn’t hurt him much.

    If we don’t trade the pick, take Bennett and he can potentially have his NHL debut in the new building.

  149. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    1. The German was very good at winning battles with his size/leaning on people

    I hope they are keying in on players who win battles and treat every attempt to get the puck like a personal insult.

    The Oilers have a significant lack of this.

    Too many players that need others to get them the puck.

    It has nothing to do with size either.

  150. oliveoilers says:

    OilLeak:
    I still need to do more research, but as long as it’s not Ekblad I’ll be fine with the pick.What are his point splits like? My first impression was he’s a bit of a one trick pony at least on the offensive side of the puck.

    One player that should be be getting more attention is Nikolaj Ehlers, this kid can flat out play.He probably gets docked a bit because he plays with Drouin but that might be unfair.Good hands, speed to burn and averaged 4.55 shots per game this year in the Q.For comparison purposes, Nathan Mackinnon averaged 4.57 shots per game last season and Drouin averaged 3.53 shots per game.Drouin is averaging 4.7 shots per game this season.

    Dude, I know we all have agreed that size isn’t everything when not coupled to skill, but he’s [Ehlers] 5’11″ and 170lbs soaking wet. We have that. In fact, we have bigger than that. With skill. Before you point out the obvious, the smaller players in the NHL are the exception, not the rule. Have to be careful before crowning the new Marti St Louis. If we can’t decide who the BPA is, then go for need as a secondary decider. It’s not a McDavid type of draft.

  151. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    1. The German was very good at winning battles with his size/leaning on people

    I hope they are keying in on players who win battles and treat every attempt to get the puck like a personal insult.

    The Oilers have a significant lack of this.

    Too many players that need others to get them the puck.

    It has nothing to do with size either.

    Ever tried to get something off of someone who is bigger than you when they don’t want you to have it and are as skilled and fast as you? It’s harder than it looks.

  152. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Lowetide,

    1. The German was very good at winning battles with his size/leaning on people

    I hope they are keying in on players who win battles and treat every attempt to get the puck like a personal insult.

    The Oilers have a significant lack of this.

    Too many players that need others to get them the puck.

    It has nothing to do with size either.

    Agreed. Sobotka is 3′ 11″ and an animal.

  153. rickithebear says:

    Yakimov is 19 year on OCT 10 1994 which means he should translate .41/.3 of his by age 22
    The age equivalency of performance.

    I do not have access to volman’s equva;fancies.
    So i use an average of the old SEL and KHL .8
    ((12/33) x .8) X 82 = 24 PT.

    24 X (.41/.3) = 33 pts x 1.2 = 39.4 pts. if you bump him to 12 min of play.

    the question is how much PP time is he getting as a 18 year old to start the season.
    the 38 scoring forward on a team of veterans. declaring he is going to the AHL/NHL

    I suspect he was largely EV and SH time. He displayed a strong defensive game.

    Sean Monohan Oct 1994 13: 37EVTOI 2:05 PPTOI
    19EVG 8EVA

    Yakimov OCT 1994 season NHLE 10:00 minTOI ?
    14G 10A EVEN?

    I do not see yakimov getting PP time!

    So pretty much Sean Monohans even year!

  154. fuzzy muppet says:

    Regardless of who they take, we should all be happy. Either way they are adding an excellent prospect.

    I’ll admit, I’d be disappointed if they select Ekblad.

  155. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. Sobotka is 3′ 11″ and an animal.

    Lucic.

  156. Caramel Obvious says:

    Younger Oil,

    Not to pick on you but the age discussion here has been bafflingly stupid. Eight months at this age matters a lot and it isn’t because the older guy is eight months closer to retiring. It is because he’s closer to the player he is going to be.

    If two players are of roughly the same ability at different ages then the one who is younger is going to be the better player nine times out of ten. This is obvious.

    On that note, Nathan Mackinnon is going to be the best hockey player in the world, and sooner rather than later. This is a near certainty. Why? Not simply because he is so good right now. It is a near certainty Because he was so young when he was drafted he is almost eligible for this draft. Think on that for a second.

  157. Younger Oil says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    My point was that age and experience are not the same thing. Until two years ago, Draisaitl was in Germany playing in a u16 league where he got 192 points in 29 games. That, to me at least, shows that for that entire time, in all likelyhood he was not pushed, and not challenged. He likely has done the majority of his development in the WHL, where he has only had two seasons of experience.

    Bennett undoubtedly dominated where he played before going to the OHL, scoring 69 points in 37 games in his final season before the OHL, but that is nowhere near the domination of Draisaitl. He had much more competition to play with, and against, and he also had a longer season. In my opiniion, this shows to me that Bennett has had much more experience in his development, and in all likelyhood has had at least 8 more months of playing time than Draisaitl, so I was just trying to make the point that all of this somewhat negates the 8 month age difference, and that you have to base observations on their CHL experience, which is nearly identical.

    If they were both Canadian, playing in the same circumstances, then sure, those 8 months would make a difference. But their career paths have been so drastically different that the 8 month age gap in my opinion does not have as much of an effect when comparing these two players.

    Sure, it means that Drasiatl could be 8 months sooner to reaching his physical maturity, but it is impossible to tell that. Bennett could grow another two inches and 20 pounds while Draisaitl stops growing, but the opposite can happen too, it is near impossible to chart how teenagers grow physically.

    Regardless, the Oilers will get a great player, but I don’t think it’s “baffingly stupid” to think that their experiences prior to entering the CHL should be factored in just as much as their age difference.

  158. lawrenharris says:

    Last week people were describing Bennett as a “Doug Gilmour type” player, and I think it was just yesterday that somebody here descibed him as a “mini-Gilmour.” Bennett at 181lb already has 6lb on Gilmour’s listed pro weight of 175lb. Eric Duhatschek once told me in an email that 175 was already an exaggeration and that by the end of a season Gilmour would weigh “165lb soaking wet.” (He added that Gretzky’s real playing weight was c.175lb, not the 185 he was habitually listed at.) The pont is that Gilmour was a measurably smaller player than Bennett is going to be.

  159. Lowetide says:

    lawrenharris:
    Last week people were describing Bennett as a “Doug Gilmour type” player, and I think it was just yesterday that somebody here descibed him as a “mini-Gilmour.”Bennett at 181lb already has 6lb on Gilmour’s listed pro weight of 175lb.Eric Duhatschek once told me in an email that 175 was already an exaggeration and that by the end of a season Gilmour would weigh “165lb soaking wet.”(He added that Gretzky’s real playing weight was c.175lb, not the 185 he was habitually listed at.)The pont is that Gilmour was a measurably smaller player than Bennett is going to be.

    The problem here is that we’re taking certain verbal as bona fide and other verbal as soiled. ALL of the verbal is designed to sell specific players, and I don’t know anyone—anyone—can figure out which one is credible.

    We’re chasing our tails here.

  160. lawrenharris says:

    Well, I believe Duhatschek, who followed Gilmour closely throughout his entire career in Calgary, and saw him dripping wet in the locker room on numberless occasions. The question then becomes how greatly inflated Bennett’s (and Gretzky’s) actual weight is from their official weights. In any case the assertion that Bennett is going to be at least somewhat heavier than Gilmour seems to me to reside in a realm that is as factual and non-speculative as any assertion of this kind can be. Bennett at 18 officially outweighs the mature Gilmour, and can surely depended to put on at least a few pounds in the next five years.

  161. Lowetide says:

    lawrenharris:
    Well, I believe Duhatschek, who followed Gilmour closely throughout his entire career in Calgary, and saw him dripping wet in the locker room on numberless occasions.The question then becomes how greatly inflated Bennett’s (and Gretzky’s) actual weight is from their official weights.In any case the assertion that Bennett is going to be at least somewhat heavier than Gilmour seems to me to reside in a realm that is as factual and non-speculative as any assertion of this kind can be. Bennett at 18 officially outweighs the mature Gilmour, and can surely depended to put on at least a few pounds in the next five years.

    The weight isn’t the issue, it’s the talent.

  162. jb says:

    OilLeak:
    One player that should be be getting more attention is Nikolaj Ehlers, this kid can flat out play.He probably gets docked a bit because he plays with Drouin but that might be unfair.

    Marc Pouliot and Sam Gagner say hi. We already drafted the next Doug Gilmour, not again please.

  163. lawrenharris says:

    Lowetide: The weight isn’t the issue, it’s the talent.

    Hm. I thought the weight was the issue, vis-a-vis Draisaitl (aka possibly the next
    Anze Kopitar) and equally vis-a-vis Reinhart (who outweighs Bennett and who is popularly known as Nuge 2.0).

  164. Truth says:

    Dmitry Chesnokov ‏@dchesnokov 1h
    Anton Belov told @plysenkovRUS that he didn’t want to stay in Edmonton under Dallas Eakins. #Oilers

    I hope Belov clarifies for what exact reason. Is it that Belov is an Olympian and he feels that he deserves to be in the lineup every night, or is it that he couldn’t deal with his coach throwing hissy fits like you see on a pre-school playground?

  165. Pieces of a Man: Top Ten 2014 NHL Draft Eligible Players - The Oilers Rig - The Oilers Rig says:

    […] in terms of NHLE see this excellent article by Byron Bader and these numerous articles by Lowetide here, here and […]

  166. In the absence of a trade, could Yakimov be the answer? - Oilers Addict says:

    […] assists, and 23 points over a full NHL season. How accurate are Vollman NHLE’s? Taylor Hall, again according to Lowetide’s personal blog, had an NHLE of 17 goals, 29 assists, and 46 points over 82 games. Hall actually scored 22 goals, […]

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca